NFL Week 3 – Takedown Breakdown | Winning DFS DraftKings Lineups & Strategy Review

That is correct on the sign, but it's okay to be disappointed and to learn from it and look at it and say, how do we get better? That's what you're here to do. As you mentioned, the one thing I noticed about that thing, Belman is like all the time. Had a couple of years ago, I remember it was like Pickens on the Steelers. He was out. Everyone immediately read because they wanted to afford Saquon Barkley on that slate.

I know this is mixing slates, but that was the same slate. So just giving the idea. People could already get to Gibbs yesterday, but I think what a lot of people did as soon as the Mitchell news became official, they went to Isaiah Williams. Great way to get a guy, It's not like we really needed that because you could already get to Gibbs. You could already get to pretty much whatever you want. Now you could boost up one more guy.

Someone will say, well, yeah, but you could have got to Gibbs and JSN. Possible, but also the problem is Williams fills the wide receiver slot. So is it still possible? Yes, there's three other slots, including the flex there.

But one way you can always do it, and this worked out handsomely for some yesterday with Sadiq in tight end or however people use them, but I'm just saying when he's a tight end at the onesie position, you could just slide him in there and hope to get some love. Look, he got twenty six and a half DraftKings points. I don't think you're expecting that. But if you get it, great. But it's more so the concept of what's the Williams push versus the Sadiq push.

And obviously those that had Sadiq were rewarded, like I mentioned. So any thoughts on just a quick strategy, last minute news type thing? I think we kind of felt that the Adonai Mitchell news was coming, yet people still didn't really prepare for it in that way as much. Yeah, a couple things there. One, yes, but also on that same note, the Mason Taylor news being out, I feel like didn't get talked about enough around the industry. He ran a ton of routes last week.

That was just another feather in Sadiq's cap. Guy that used a high draft pick on. Detroit had just gotten carved by the Buffalo tight ends the week before yesterday. I mean, their whole secondary is in shambles, so you can pick on them with everyone. But Sadiq looked really good, showed why they spent a high draft pick on him. You know, outside of that, trying to think the only other like news relevant piece that's sticking out to me is Brock Bowers.

And that was one thing I got right yesterday. I played a lot of him, not in the right lineups, obviously, but he came in an under one percent ownedOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ and you clearly didn't need him because of scores like Gibbs, et cetera. But. He had the highest score at the position. That's worth something. So I feel like just because he was out two weeks, people were really, people were obviously really hesitant to get the Bowers when coming into the season, like he's never under one percent owned.

So that was just surprising to me. Yeah, no, don't disagree there at all. And it's pretty crazy just the difference. I'm just looking now at the lineups. We'll get to them in a second. But, you know, the tight end position was also loaded. So you just reminded me of something else there. It's like when you had so many different options. But I don't... Look, Brock Bowers ended up having the game he did. Jawan Johnson had a big game. People liked Kittle.

He had a big game. You know, Kincaid was in the pools for people he did not. I'm just noting, like, how many Andrews people liked. There was just so many ways... That you could go at tight end yesterday, plus play double tight end still, that I think that that was kind of overlooked when you think about that, the Jets news as a whole. Schultz. What do you get to... Just double checking here quickly to see fastest way I can.

I think, yeah, you got the five point nine percent owned in the Milly Maker. So, I mean, that tells you everything you need to know right there for that. I guess that's the $555. I'll check it in a second when we get there. But just to note it anyway, the point being, when you get that news like that, it's funny, like everyone kind of felt it was coming. We were talking about it the morning in the Discord, all that stuff.

I think it still felt like a last-minute scramble for many just to be like, all right, well, how do I get more Williams into the lineups? And it wasn't really a thought as much for many going to Sadiq. So, yeah, that was a spot where, like Sully said, maybe you want to kick yourself a little bit after if you didn't fully do that. But I think that was... You know, another one here, Michael Beer and appreciate the vulnerability says, I appreciate the review guys.

I too didn't get to enough Sadiq. I had a lot of Gino stacks, but swapped all the Mitchell to Williams. Besides a couple of lineups, I even had Gadsden with some Gino. Like you see that stuff after that's what I mean. It feels like that, but Hey, look, everybody did it. That's why we're here. You want to take a lesson away from it and try and learn and think about that stuff. People always say, well, looking at the results doesn't help.

I always say it. I'll say it again with you on here, Belman.

I talked about it last week, but poker players for years have been going to poker training sites and reviewing pros and getting seeing as many hands as humanly possible that they can see but you still can't see them all typically because people would only stream so much when they're live you're not seeing almost any of it even the biggest tournaments on tv you get to see the whole cards of whatever the tv chooses to show us but not all of it so you can only pick up so much information in DFS we have the ability to be able to go in and see exactly what someone did how they played what but not just their winning lineup.

Look at the portfolio, how they play as a player, what style of lineups do they build and construct for all the different sports and all of that. And the way we do it is we go to DFSOS.com. That's what we're going to be using today. You guys can check it out. It's just simple. DFSOSforOperatingSystem.com. You can check it out. A ton of stuff. Other sites. Don't have or charge separately for like perfect lineups, bankrollBankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗ tracker, the AI newsfeed.

I use it a ton for the content shows and being able to get little nuggets and tidbits of what people are doing. I know there's different sites out there doing that now separately for ten bucks or whatever that you can add in. But it's got projection backtesting for your points and your ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. So we're using multiple sites. It's very complimentary. You can go backtest and see how those results look and who's more accurate and all of that type of thing.

Contest analysis, the lobby, the player profiles, all of that. But the biggest thing is you can check it out for twenty nine dollars right now. So with code ship it, you go to DFSOS.com, you go to the all access, you use code ship it. It will take the fifty nine dollars a month all access down to the pro price. Check it out for a month. It's a dollar a day.

Some of the stuff we're going to look at inside the dashboard, you can see it's all here. The slate review, the contest lobby, the accuracy, the projections, all kinds of different things going on. Here was the perfect lineup though, Belman. I'll let you take it from here. I know, again, this is just, you know, success leaves clues type stuff. Like, again, that's the perfect lineup.

Funny enough, when we get to one, eight hundred degrees, Miami and the double milli shipper got very close to this. I believe it was a one V one. Of using the two hundred bucks on Jameson Williams as opposed to Michael Wilson. And obviously the difference was drastic. It was almost twenty points. So that just shows you guys to two hundred bucks, twenty points. Luckily, it was still more than enough to get the job done in both places.

And skillfully, because you look at this lineup, we are going to be kind of using the perfect lineup as the review today. Like I said, Matt, because it's almost the exact same lineup. So it's Wilson instead of Williams, Jamo, that is leaving two hundred bucks on the table.

But kind of looks amazing after the fact right it's not like we weren't on these spots these definitely were you know heavily owned in some cases but you still had enough guys that were low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ to make this just an awesome lineup all around what's your thoughts so a couple thoughts to start first off uh the first place my mind goes to or my eyes whatever is jsn and I heard you guys talking about him a little bit yesterday when I when I was able to Check the show in between, you know, doing kid stuff.

And I heard Hoop talking about JSN, about how he wanted to be overweight on JSN going forward. And it makes sense, man. Like, even yesterday, you're looking at, you know, the second highest leading scorer on the slate at ten percent ownedOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. He's one of only two guys ever to have under twenty yards and a touchdown in each of the first three games. The other guy is Jerry Rice. I mean, he's in unprecedented territory right now.

And he's still low owned every week because his price tag. Yeah. So that stands out to me big time. The other thing that stands out to me is, and we talk about this a lot and I play like this a lot, especially in these Bills Milly makers game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗. Sometimes you need pieces from a few of the games, and this is a good example of it. You have the Gino Wilson Gibbs trio.

Then you have, or Sadiq quad, you know, quad piece, uh, And then you also have Juwan Johnson from another game that people liked a lot. So just a really well, you know, obviously I'm more talking about the actual lineup than the perfect lineup. When I say it's like a well-constructed lineup, this lineup, like you said, a lot of plays that we talked about that were talked about around the industry, but you know, not necessarily played together.

And then the outlier JSN piece, which is just crazy to say he's an outlier still go ahead. No, you're good. I love that call out. And one of the things I think that I noticed right away is it's twofold, right? A lot of people were doing Gibbs with Wilson. Talked about that a ton.

Then yesterday on the show on Sunday Shippers, I know we just put the clip out, like who won the Mills himself a few years back, but it was with Gino in Seattle versus Detroit in a game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗. So he's like, I'm a little biased to this spot, but he's like, also you are liking these things. And I said that, I said, if you've got just Gibbs and Wilson, You have to think about that.

And one, be prepared if the game stack comes up over the top, whether it's with Goff or Geno, that's one of the things. And then the other side of it is that you also have to look at like, what's other ways that you can get different with it? And how many people, you know, Blake and I talked on Saturday about conditional ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ and meaning like, look, how many people are playing Gibbs with Wilson? A bunch.

How many people were playing Gibbs with Wilson with this full game stack, including Sadiq? I don't know. It would still be up there some, but not nearly as much as those just playing the one V one secondary stack of Gibbs and Wilson. But then people forget. And while this has nothing to do with that game, people forget conceptually that, okay, how many people are playing Gibbs and Wilson, but also JSN?

That's where people mess up because it's like JSN is only at ten percent on his own. How many people are fitting him into a lineup that already has an $8,800 running back and the secondary with the Sadiq and the game stack and the low on pieces there? So then that's what's that's what's confusing people. And they're not necessarily willing to learn or wanting to learn. They just want to deposit, move to the next slate.

It's like this is where we could look into it and see. That. Twenty one percent Warren. Well, there's nobody there but him and he catches passes and he's a good PPR option. Gibbs chalk of the slate for good reason. So was Wilson. But how do you play those guys together and still get different? And look, I don't know if I have it up here right now to look at it. I'll try and find it quickly.

Jamo was eleven percent owned, which is going to be in the winning lineup. So just noting it, even Jamo was around ten percent. So you still had Gino, low enough owned. You had around ten percent. J-Mo in the winning lineup. I know we're looking at the perfect right now. Around ten percent, JSN. Not many people, though, would be playing Gibbs with JSN. Then you had a low-ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ Jawan. You mentioned it. People like Shuck. People like Dolawe. People like Vele. People like Johnson.

But not much. They just talked about him. They didn't be about him. Three point nine percent. And then Vikings... Were not good enough for me to say they were in the pay up, but we just knew we weren't paying down. Mind you, the Tennessee Titans people did get there still, I think for some lineups. It didn't end up in the winning. I get it.

But I'm just saying for the most part, FanDuel, things like that, you saw that seven points or whatever they put up still show up. So I can't say anything there. I really liked the pay up options. Very surprised yesterday to see how poorly the Seahawks and the Chiefs both played against those defenses they were going. Up against. They could have played a lot better. Obviously got, got the job done for, for the Chiefs, the unfortunate injury to HN, et cetera, et cetera.

But Seahawks was just mind-blowing to me that they went into Washington when Washington down D line and O line people with a backup quarterback and Mariota was just able to dance all over them. So pretty interesting stuff there. Anything else you see with this lineup that you want to bring up? Somebody mentioned I think it was Sully. Double tight end was coming up a bunch in the Sims yesterday. Like it's constantly overlooked. The prices are just still way too cheap. I loved your call out on Sadiq.

Like Taylor out. Now Mitchell is out. It's like he's already only $3,500. Like they got to throw to someone. You already like the other guys in this game with Wilson and Gibbs. Well, why not put it together? So seems so easy after the fact, but it really does make sense. Pre slate as well. Your thoughts. Anything else there?

No, just that like kind of what you mentioned with the two hundred dollar difference, like the margins are thin in the NFL just in general. And DFS is no different. Even Jalen Warren right there. Really good game. Feel like people were hesitant to play Jalen Warren chalk, even though with him as the only guy in that backfield, not priced as such. I thought he was a really good play. And he had like an eighty seven yard run called back. So. That's what happens.

You know what I mean? That's not going to get talked about at all because he still got there, but he would have been absolutely needed. That, by the way, that was a crazy call. That was on DK Metcalf. That was pretty weak, too. There was two weak ones. It was that, and there was another one later in the day. The Tampa one. Well, Tampa one wasn't weak, but calling back a Godwin, an eighty-seven-yard touchdown was massive.

Yeah, I think it was like the – you know what I liked? Oh, yeah, it was the Purdy, the rushing touchdown. And it was like the perfect ball-don't-lie moment. Buddy rushes it in from like thirty-five yards, takes it in. It was just the silliness of like a last-second push by Kittle, like almost a joke. And the very next play, he throws the touchdown to Kittle. It was the ultimate ball-don't-lie. Like, get out of here.

The refs were so bad yesterday in many spots, and I never come on and complain about that. But just noting it, there was definitely some really – you know, tough calls out there yesterday for sure. But go ahead, just keep going with this. That's not what the point of this show is. No, just, yeah, blatant missed calls too. It's frustrating when you're watching that stuff.

But as far as the lineup goes, the war and peace, I mean, it's not surprising that like the perfect lineup is so close to the actual lineup play just because the actual lineup play took down so much, so many contests. You know what I mean? You're only really going to see that when the two are so close together. That's what you have here. Yeah, the Vikings D. Defenses are random. That wasn't the D that I was going out of my way to play.

The field certainly wasn't going out of their way to play, but they scored a touchdown early and got a bunch of sacks and ended up getting there. And the whole lineup just came together. Yeah, definitely did. I'll show you guys this. So if you're on DFSOS.com, again, you can use promo code SHIPIT to get half price, lock it in for the entire NFL season. It works out to twenty nine dollars a month or just a dollar a day.

Like I said, you'll get a ton of stuff on here. I use it for the news. Like if you're looking up tonight, you were looking up Keenum stuff. It would just show you like three hours ago what was talked about with them. If people when they were I know they're going with Keenum and we knew this to start the day, but just noting like what the stuff about Bagent was, you can look up the news there, anything you're unsure of.

And you want to see, okay, what's been the topic of conversation? Like, I'm curious, maybe, uh, how do you spell my nun guy? That's the, my nun guy. M O N. Yeah, I got it. Yeah. Okay. Right. So from a day ago today, if you were curious, like, I wonder what's going on with him coming into the week. Cause I'm thinking about Swift and et cetera, et cetera. You can just look up anything you want in the newsfeed, but where we're going is slate review.com.

You can't miss it. It's on $2,000 twenty six all months NFL. Obviously, we're in the books right now. So it tells you, OK, there's the day I want. It tracks mostly everything on DraftKings, right? You're not going to get FanDuel, all this other stuff. What's the trade? Is that real? Just one sec. Hmm. Wow, just one second. Okay, big trade. We always do this stuff live. It's a live stream, so we might as well be with it. So the Vikings traded J.J.

McCarthy to the Giants for a fifth-round pick. So obviously, dark going down for the season. We knew there was going to be some stuff there. So that's pretty interesting. Will he start there right away, you think? I don't know. But if you're trading it away for it, you've got to think there's something going on. Sure. You know, that's not, I'm not the best at thinking about that, but I, you know, I'm already intrigued by it.

So I have to look into it more after we hop off this, but you know, some people in the chat are saying they're happy. So that's, that's pretty crazy. That's big news to start our Monday. But anyway, back to this, this has all the tracking for the DraftKings contest, which I think is pretty funny because like, it's, it's the only way you can do it. FanDuel doesn't give us anything, but I know somebody was bringing this up the other day and looking at it.

I thought this was, I think it was last night. Somebody messaged me this. If on the dashboard you go down to player profiles and click it it will bring you to the leaderboard so far you know people that have played at least ten contests you can mess with this for twenty twenty six And again, it's only DraftKings. It states it on here. I think it's at the bottom. You just got to scroll down, guys, or maybe I'm missing it. But anyway, it tells you everything.

There's a tutorial there. It explains that it's only for the DraftKings contest. It's just kind of like a winnings board. These people have won way more than this to start the season, probably, especially if you include FanDuel. They're not going to put up a P&L or something like that. But uh, one, eight hundred degrees, Miami. He's like, I haven't been playing that much. I messaged him, congratulated him last night.

He says, I haven't really been playing that much, but he said it was awesome to get this to happen pretty quickly like that. So if you look like mock loving volume for days, you to cow shady, all the volume that they're playing, ninety two contests tracked that are equivalent to the others that are tracked on here and already the winningest player. Obviously you win two millies makes that pretty easy.

But going into, um, looking at the contest, going back here, um, We can look at the twenty dollar milli first and you'll see, you know, still some crushers up there. Hishboo has been on a tear, too, I believe. So if you look, you know, he's been around forever crushing, but, you know, great dude just up there with him. But one hundred degrees, Miami had that lineup we just talked about. It's Gino, Jameer, Warren. Wilson, JSN, Sadiq, Jawan, Vikings.

The only difference, like I said, was it spent the $50,000 and played JMO instead of that. If you click on one eight hundred degrees, Miami, it's this contest. You can see ten lineups in this contest. And then I believe played the same ten. If we go back here and we X out and go to the $555. And click again.

I actually played twelve, so I had a couple extra lineups that didn't go into the twenty dollar, I guess, but this is the... Might have filled. I know the twenty filled before the five-five-five, so he might have added a couple late. Plus, you always feel better, by the way, just a side note from us both playing as much as we do and for as long as we have, it always feels way better if the twenty dollar fills, but you got your five-fifty-five in.

Because you're like, well, at least I'm still going up against the way smaller field. It sucks, I won't win two million dollars. Imagine if it was the one of this lineup, though. That's Yeah, imagine if it was. This would have been the feeling, like one of those last two. So you nailed it. That's exactly it. You don't feel bad because you still would win a milli, but you're like, damn, I could have won two milli. So anyway, lucky for what? Eight hundred degrees in Miami.

They got it in. But, you know, there's always these little nuances that come with it. So this was the lineup here. We talked about it. I don't think there's. A benefit to like re-reviewing this in the spirit of time and just, you know, covering it, obviously congrats to one in a hundred degrees, Miami. If those that don't know, um, they've been playing for a very long time, less lately.

I noticed, you know, in the stock streets and day trading and other streets on, on X, but just notice, you know, noticeable. Like for, for people that don't know, you'll won the live final, the big FFWC years ago for big money. So like, you know, been in the streets way longer than people know or think probably. And then also has a ton of big boy wins under his belt.

So just to note that this is nothing new for one, eight hundred degrees Miami, but still it's, it's a huge accomplishment and congrats again to you. So not much to take away there. But I like to look at this. Let's go to the twelve lineup portfolio. So this is the twelve lineup I got up here now. Right. So. Yeah, just pulling this up, trying to see if I'm missing anything else. No. All right. So here we go. This is their exposure.

You can look at it a couple different ways. Sometimes you can look at it by ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. You can do both or either or. I'm just saying you can see their delta of what they got on Jameer Gibbs. They had Jameer Gibbs in almost all the lineups. But in this case, with twelve lineups, and you can already see it, you're going to know it's going to be deltas that are there on twelve lineups. But heavy on Gibbs, heavy on Wilson. Heavy on Schultz.

Jamo was in a lot of those lineups. Thirty percent delta there. Seahawks D. So I wasn't the only one. Right. I like the Seahawks D. Funny enough, I mentioned that earlier and I didn't see this, but that was the case. Yeah. And Trap God says Vikings D. I scrolled through some of the previous ones on the screen here. Let's go back to this screen and you can go to the perfect lineup again. Where's it at down here?

If you see here too, you can also see alternates and like Jags D, two percent owned, $2,900, put up almost sixteen. Again, you want the seventeen for $3,100. But just saying if you landed there, you still would have been more than fine. Chargers with a cheap D that came through, funny enough, down here at $2,200, which is somewhat interesting because if you're not going to be on. Kincaid, you're not going to be on Josh Allen.

I always say this. It's never a problem to go against them. Not because it necessarily hurts them. It's just, you know, that line of your, your lineup already doesn't have them. You're already saying like, I'm not playing them. So it's like, why not at least have the cheap D there where it would hurt that many lineups that are in on that game or that spot or whatever it might be.

So yeah, Little things like that, but just going back to it, does anything else stand out here for you when you look at the portfolio? Like still had twenty five percent Isaiah Williams, right on Judarian Price. That's another one. So Judarian Price is what got me yesterday.

I don't know why I got sucked into that, but just in general, full go waiting for a smash spot, going up against Washington with no line, no D line in a game where you would think that they would just go in there and crush. Didn't work out, but it certainly cost me. I had a two V two on FanDuel. That was Jadarian Price and the Saints D. That could have been Jalen Warren and either the Tennessee Titans or the Browns D.

And it would have been $100,000 to one hundred and seventy $5,000, depending on second or third in the big Milly over on FanDuel. I still cashed it with the the ticket there. But the you know, the close close call for a big, big six figure score. But anything stand out here for you in this this portfolio looks pretty sound. Yeah, it looks, yeah, it looks real sound. And he just, you know, he had that one lineup come together.

Um, you know, with Sadiq solo owned, he was what triple the field on Sadiq. Uh, and he didn't even have that much of them. And that's what happens when you get low on guys like same with JSN, who is really low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. Um, his next best lineup was a jazz. So I saw this yesterday to pop up a little bit.

Um, You're not going to try and figure out the Washington guy, but when you're already going to get a guy like JSN solo owned, why not just pair him with Darnold? Because the big boy day could be a big boy day for Darnold. I thought it was a little bit different on yesterday's slate when I looked at that. Just thinking about it, I think I even had it... Where was it? So I had this in my notes yesterday for JSN. That was not the case.

I said, you know, I said not expecting the same result from last week, meaning the three touchdowns. He still had a very big day, but we'll definitely go back to JSN and another really good matchup for a guy that's already proven he's matchup proof and one of the best receivers in the league right now, maybe the best. So the note that I made yesterday, though, was like Burrow. And this is a concept thing now separately.

And obviously it worked for a lot of people, including one hundred degrees Miami with JSN in the Gino lineups. Is like the big boy day that we saw Lavertical win the Milly Maker with last week, right? He had Drew Locke and JSN. When you get Drew Locke, or sorry, JSN having a massive day like that, it's obviously going to attach to Drew Locke. Just like yesterday, you could have attached to Darnold.

But some of the stuff earlier in the season, so I wrote this about Chase because I'm the one that's always said this about Ja'Marr Chase, right? If I'm going to play Ja'Marr Chase, I probably want Burrow. But... I said, I understand if he's used in a similar way to how JSN was helping people last week, because sometimes you just land on the receiver in this case.

And it's more Likely early in the season when there's so many value plays versus as the season goes on, the pricing all tightens up, right? We get more appropriate pricing based on the results and the matchups and all these different factors. I said, it's more Likely early in the season when there's so many value plays to make different combinations work that don't require the quarterback to go with them. So I'm not saying I love it, but I get it.

And this is a prime example because when I hundred degrees, Miami played some with and some without. So that just goes to show, right. That when you see it, like from that setup, um, there was a couple of different ways you could get there. Do you have any thoughts on like pairing up these really expensive wide receivers? And like, did, did you even think about getting to JSM with Darnold yesterday? Or did you? I didn't get to JSN. I didn't get to Darnold.

And I played a bunch of lineups. I played fourteen lineups in this five five five. And I didn't play any JSN. So I certainly didn't play any Darnold. And I totally understand. You know, your point is well taken. I guess my only pushback on that would be. And kind of you talked about it at the beginning of the year, so many value plays, no bye weeks, and guys aren't really hurt yet.

So I think it can't be understated just how many good plays there are on any given NFL slate right now. Before really guys have gotten hurt, before by weeks every team is playing, before pricing has really caught up to where guys should be priced, there's just an infinite amount of good plays every week right now. Maybe that'll start to lessen as we go forward.

I almost think pairing has gotten a little bit, and this is talking about more to my own game than anything else, like I've overstated it too much. Like, I think I'm going a little bit too hard on the game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗. Like, for instance, my two best lineups in this five, five, five millimeter were lineups that had a similar construction to one eight hundred Miami. Geno, Sadiq, Wilson, Gibbs. But I played too much from that game. I also had St. Brown and Brees Hall.

Both those guys weren't good. Instead of those two, you know, obviously the winning lineup was JSN and whoever. But that kind of goes to your point about the two hundred hour salary difference can mean all the difference when constructing lineups. So that's kind of what I'm taking from it.

And it goes back to what I talked about at the beginning, just about diversifying not only your portfolio but potentially each individual lineup yeah so this tool like I said is crazy because I'm gonna do that now so one thing I'll add so you know just quickly and then I want to show this off because you just mentioned it and we'll look at them because you're here might as well but just noting it like the the early in the season stuff is usually I've said it now I was it was a leak in my game for sure but like week six week seven, week eight, like that's when you really start to get tighter pricing.

And then it's almost like you need to find these angles of attack to get different on a slate and this stay stacking and all that. But even like one eight hundreds line up here with JMO in it, it's like, yeah, you could try and pick the Wilson game, the Michael Wilson game there for two hundred bucks less and leave the two hundred bucks and be fine with it and say, at least I got a piece of that game.

Or you could just say, look, I'm not on golf. But I'm just going to go to the I'm just going to keep adding because I'm on Gino Smith here to make it a game stack and just add another piece that would help speed this game up. I'm way more inclined to do that. Now, if the slate had been closer, the twenty point or whatever it is, eighteen, seventeen, whatever it was, point gap of Wilson in the perfect lineup to Jamo, you're going to be mad.

You know, I'll say it like this. You're going to see and realize that, yes, it can be that drastic. Hopefully that's what people are seeing from it. But you shouldn't be mad is what I'm trying to say because it's like you built the lineup based off the proper premise. That's when people are like, well, why wouldn't that idiot just play Wilson and get twenty more points?

And it's usually not that bad or that aggressive, but you get what I'm saying of like, Totally. Ultimately, that's the problem. And to your point, it's so much easier to construct lineups that way when you're just because instead of Williams or Jamison Williams, there's fifteen other guys right there that are all viable to your point. Yes. So for me, that's my point, especially earlier in the season.

Like, again, if you're already going in on the game stack, this is also to, um, Blickle and I talked about this on leverage lane on Saturday, but we said on a week like this, when everyone's sort of picking these one-offs and these second, they're blending secondary stacks, it's best to just almost go against the fieldThe FieldThe field is everyone else entered in a contest, the group of lineups you are competing against.Before you build, picture the typical lineup in your contest. Then decide on purpose where you'll match it and where you'll step away from it.Full explanation ↗ in the sense of like, let me just find my spot because you know what? Here, look, one, eight hundred only had twelve lineups in this. I say only.

I mean, obviously, it's more than I think most are putting in the $555. But it's also he's not maxing it or something. So just keeping this in mind, he had to make hard decisions. But like this lineup just ends up being the winner. I get it. But let's look for two seconds. Darnold, Purdy, Mahomes in one, Mahomes in two. That did not work out, by the way, including for myself. I'm the one who called. Maybe it'd be his shot.

But he was still pretty tight on his quarterback in game selections. But you got to remember. In this particular lineup. And I think a lot of people have FOMO over this type of stuff is like, oh, but he didn't get Walker or anybody from KC. Oh, but he didn't get anybody from the Brazil game in Baltimore against Dallas. So how is he going to, he didn't know anybody from Arizona and San Fran, right?

But he has everybody from the Jets and the Lions game. And that's what was needed. And then he had the other good pieces that fit in around it. You just got to go with what you can. If you're trying to pick the best guy from every game, then sweet, do that. But man, what a parlay you'd be able just to make instead. It's like, how are you really going to guess exactly? And then you want to add things like salary cap and whatever.

Roster construction, all these different factors to make it even more difficult against more light. You could just bet a, a single game parlay or, or a, you could go bet a, sorry, not a single game, like a whole slate parlay and just pick your top nine, every spot. And maybe it's less, maybe you don't, you don't feel as confident. You, you got five good spots, go put them all in a parlay and just beat their prop and you'll be able to be good and make money.

But this is what you have to remember when you're building the lineups like this. So I, yeah, I think it was a really good job overall, just looking at it. And then the coverage, uh, throughout the portfolio. Any, anything else you want to touch on here? If not, I want to keep it moving.

No, just your point about like when you listed off all those games, like that just is my point about how many good games there are on any given slate. And there's so many different pieces you can look at. So it's like, it's hard not to consolidate. Yeah. Never Mahomes is back by the way. That was a disaster. I felt like they had their chances early, but if there was ever a spot, I really did like the leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ to Walker, but tried to call my shot.

Didn't work.

Uh played him in my $555 it was not good maybe I'll grab that

In a second too when we do yours I do want to show off I do want to say a quick shout out though um we've seen this a couple times this season already peter gibbons obviously the the top DFS pros that we talk about all the time and I've been fortunate enough to be in enough of these live finals to meet these guys and they're all great people but this is awesome too like if you look here in the $555 they're not gonna say it's awesome trust me but you know is what it is you're coming off a million dollar win so la vertical fourth in the big five, fifty five million the week after shipping it and winning it.

So, you know, that is still right back in the hunt. Just to show you guys, if you put the put the work in and be consistent, you know, you can get these runs of this. He took on the thirty one eighty two. He took down the thirty one eighty four $200,000. There you go. So I'll pull it up in a sec. Congrats, man. That's just amazing. He's just an awesome dude.

I met him and his brother at one of the live files he brought out and then some of their friends and stuff like that. He's buddies too with BP because they're both young gunners. If you think DFS is dead, The vertical looks like he's. Fifteen years old. Legit. I'm not making fun of him. It's just awesome. Like he's just a young dude. And BP. We always make fun of. You know. He looks like he's. Eighteen. Seventeen. He's. He's also looks very young.

These two are just. Crushers. And BP came third. To the vertical last week. So he's probably hating. These finishes. But he's got his in the past. And I'm sure he'll get another one very soon. But just looking at it. You know. Those two being right back. In the hunt. You said he took down the. Thirty one eighty. There it is. Luxury box. Yeah. Man, look at these killers. LaVertical, Shady, Need Lynch Mooney, Sharp, Peter Gibbons back in the mix, like just crushing it.

So his lineup there, LaVertical had Shuck, Olave, Johnson. He had Gibbs, Warren... Who else did he have? Wilson with Gibbs. Ted Hurst into the lineup there. Very nice. Played James Cook and the Jags D. That's a nice lineup, man. Blew out the field. Pretty much a boat race for that field. But that's a really nice lineup there in this one. Let's see if we can pull this up real quick. Had the max. I think the max is nine. One out of nine.

You only need one, baby. That's how you get it done. Let's go down and look at this just to see again. But yeah, forty nine nine two hundred eighteen points. The ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ is right here. You can see Ted Hurst was at point three percent ownership. So a nice little nice little one off there. Got a piece of that Buffalo game. Had the Gibbs Wilson set up, had the stack with New Orleans. The Jags D played Lawrence, played Lamar Lawrence. Deshaun, your boys in there.

Trevor Lawrence, Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, Josh Allen. So, you know, stayed pretty tight, though. I think that's another thing to look at and keep in mind. Like, everyone always says, like, oh, if I had one fifty, I'd do this. But these players are winning in one fifty and they're winning in the small fields, too. But you got to look at what they're doing. What are they doing? And, you know, still pretty tight. Condensed quarterback pool.

Like, yeah, you get the one Josh Allen out of the nine, you get the one to Sean, you get the one Lamar, but after the end, the one shock, but after that it was all Trevor Lawrence. So it's like, that's kind of the setup where it's like, I'm sticking to Trevor Lawrence and then I'll add my one offs of the others. But the core was a setup on Trevor Lawrence. Didn't need them to come through. Cause got there the other way.

All right. If you go to a player profiles, I'm going to do it this way actually. And you go to Belman, uh, It knows you. It knows the number one Belman to bring up right there playing the most contests of anybody in the mix. I can go down and I can go to view details for NFL. I can find the $555 and view the lineups from yesterday. I could see that you had fourteen lineups. You cashed five.

You used up most of your salary in most of those lineups. You played a pool of forty six unique players. I can then check by exposure. I can check by ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ what your deltas were. You were underweight on Garrett Wilson. Obviously, it didn't work out. You were underweight on that guy. Secondary stack of those two as a whole, you're underweight on Walker, but you said you want to look at your two best lines.

You can also see things just so people know of like how much of each team you had exposure to. And then you can also see what you used at flex, right?

So you had, you had a, you had a, you had a, you had a, you had a, you had a, you had a, you had a, you had a, you had a, you had a, you had a, you had a, Yeah, because it's kind of like a combination of both games I liked a lot, and I just didn't play the right pieces together. The first one, as I mentioned, almost got there.

If that game extends more, if Geno doesn't lose that fumble, you never know what happens. If that game goes to overtime, etc., But the Amon Ra Breece instead of JSN and whoever it was, it was a killer. And then you look at the second lineup, it's a couple of things. I was way higher on the field on Jalen Warren. He wasn't in my best lineup. Juwan Johnson and Bowers were two guys I was over the field on.

So it was almost like one of those, I wish I could combine the lineups, but I'm sure... A lot of people say that the day after. You know what I mean? Yeah, of course. One note I'll say, though. This first lineup, I believe, is exactly how Hoop won the Mills. I can't remember. It is, because I had a lineup that did really well that day. Obviously, it wasn't a Milly Maker, but it was like a basic... Yeah.

Full on stack with like, I think the reason I see it that way though, is cause this was a, I think you went one more. So I think who played a three, four that day, which means like he went with Gino and two of his guys with four from the other side. So people were calling it unconventional, but then I believe he had, I know he had Josh Jacobs, um, in the flex on the Raiders at that time.

And then whatever defense you went, um, four, four, but I know sometimes people look at this as like, again, it's not, but just noting it. Some people look at it unconventional because they're like, you have, you know, four guys from the other side, but you didn't use their quarterback. You use the guy that you, but you use the guy that you could afford to get all these. There's nobody on this list that people were not talking about.

At least some, we talked about Sadiq off the top of the show, but Gino, it still gets spread out. But the only real big ownership was like Gibbs and, Amin Rado, in comparison, half the ownership, pretty much half, call it half, just under, of both Wilson and Gibbs. So even mixing him in, how many people even had all of that together? And then Jamo, almost half of him. Sadiq, only five. Laporte at elevens. This is a sick lineup.

Like you said, what if it does keep going or we get OT or something like that? That would have been nuts, but... Hey, speaking of the man, Tiger Ball, twenty three. That's Josh from DFS OS dot com. The owner says La Vertical also shipped the showdown wildcat for $100,000 yesterday. Insane heater. He's been all over the DFS OS daily slate winners collage lately. Yeah, he's crushing it. I didn't even know that one. I didn't know about the luxury box.

But when you're hot, you're hot. We've all had our opportunities to be there. And, you know, winning a Milly Maker, then taking it to all these other tournaments that he's winning feels good. You sometimes play a bit looser. You feel better about where you're at. It doesn't just magically make you win. I wish there was, you know, otherwise we just win the Mills to start and then keep those wins coming. But you do typically allow yourself to play.

But he's been a great player for a long time now and across all sports. So congrats to him. That's awesome that Josh pointed that out. I love your call it like being able to combine the lineups, but I still like the way you did this one. Because Gente was kind of being held in check based on all those other running backs. Bowers, not getting played at all. But people were talking about, you know, Olave, you know, Shuck, Ville, I would say Potato Potato with him.

But I mean, that was the highest owned quarterback. But talk about a way to play him differently. And then instead of Walker, I love this one too. People won't pick up on it usually. But instead of Walker... You played Rice. But remember, Walker was three hundred dollars more than Gentee. So like, again, people don't always see that for what it is. They see game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗ and all this guy played Rice. Like it's more there's there's levels to it.

And it's like if you're not if you're playing Gentee because he also makes the game stack fit, but also unique in a way because you're mixing it with these other pieces. Like how many people are playing Gentee and Brock? Well, I can tell you it's very low because not many people are even playing Brock to start with. So there's that. But then when you're playing a $7,100 gentee, let's play rice in that spot instead.

When most people that are on shock, not most people, but just the nature of the slate. A lot of people were playing Tennessee to make everything fit. Well, you're not doing that. You're playing the Giants on the opposite side of that. So it's these subtle flips there. That people don't always pick up on that you can take this and really apply it to anything. Because people say, oh yeah, like it's nice when you got a hundred and fifty lineups. You don't.

You were building fourteen lineups for this contest and I'm sure you're thinking a lot of them by hand or like some sort of virtual hand builder ability to see something and say, okay, if this, then that, all of this. What are your thoughts on that? Anything you want to add to it?

No, you hit the nail on the head and you're kind of making me feel better about coming in and obviously it's hard not to be a little bit results oriented in anything you do. And because of how the winning lineup turned out and how I built my lineups, I can't help but think I went a little bit too hard on the game stacks, but they're making me feel better about it.

And looking in hindsight, I clearly needed more Gibbs, even though I played some, I had like that I built heavy Saints Raiders games, you know, Gibbs should have been more of a priority because I think I could have fit him more. That said, it also goes back to the point of there's so many good spots. That spot might have been a little bit better than some of the others, but it was owned as such.

You mentioned when you talked about the Chargers defense, Buffalo, like they weren't even really played because there are so many good spots in any given week. It's really hard to look at any one lineup and be like, man, I need this, this, this, and this, and this. It's just too hard. Yeah. Agreed. I will say, cause my, my guy Aaron's in here all the time. And like, so we agree sometimes disagree on others.

This is not even, I mean, outside of the factual point that he has more bankrollBankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗ when he wins the Milly Maker, he's been playing high stakes for years now. So it's like, he didn't like just all of a sudden decide to enter the luxury box. I'm talking specifically about the mentality as a matter of fact, for those winning money that then go and start doing what you're saying and start entering bigger contests and all of that stuff. And you say increase their odds.

First of all, most people that do it go absolutely stone broke immediately from it. You know, I've seen people win millions and lose them, like win a Milly Maker and now go look them up and they're playing four lineups in the twenty dollar. That's another thing you can do with these tools. Go go check what your shows you're watching. People are actually playing.

And if they're not about that life and telling you the truth and saying, hey, I'm a single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ player, so I typically only play this. That's different. If that's their shtick. But if they, if you always saw them playing GPPsGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗ and top field, top heavy tournaments and things like that, now you go look it up. They're playing four lineups, but you know, they want a Milly Maker. They didn't just stop liking DFS. I can tell you that much. They just don't have the money.

So sorry to tell you like it is, but it's, it's the facts of this game. So. Bankroll management critical. It gets brushed off because people say, ah, I hear it again. Bankroll management contest selection. It gets brushed off. I'm telling you, people win a million dollars. Use $100,000. People win $100,000 off of a thousand dollars. And that's on a main slate Sunday. And go check your Sunday night football lobbies.

That same player who's never played more than maybe two grand in a slate max is all of a sudden in for $30,000. And they'll tell you to your line, your second line, they're in the higher dollar GPPs with a smaller field. So it increased their odds. Again, outside of math saying that, you know, one out of three hundred is better odds than one out of $3,000 and $30,000, whatever. Yes, I know math and I'm good at it. I'm getting you.

I'm not being condescending. I'm just noting it. That when people say that, you're going up against the best players in the entire world.

It's like winning $10,000 at a poker table and then being like, sweet, in your local hometown and then being like, sweet, let me fly to Vegas, find the best game with the best players that won all their money from schmucks like me And let me sit down with them because now that I can play in the big boy stakes, they'll respect my raises, like things like that.

So I'm not saying you went fully in there, but just noting to you that like Lavertical's been playing the highest stakes for a while. It's different. I'm sure there's downswings, plenty of downswings that he's seen that go with it as well. I'm just noting, I think there's an interesting dynamic to when you do get a big win Sometimes having that extra money, it's not about going up in the stakes and that type of thing.

To me, as much as it's about maybe you play a little bit more freely and see things differently as you're not as scared, right? People say scared money don't make money. That's cliche. But I will say when someone's like, well... You know, this didn't work for me last time. It might've been a great DFS thought, right? Like your game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗ here. I think there was nothing wrong. We talked about, I actually think game stacks were a great idea.

They turned out to be on the winning lineup. You almost had the full game stack of the one that was on the winning lineup and the optimals and all that. So it's not like you were in the bad head space on how you were thinking of playing. Blakely and I talked on Saturday about the overstacks and yeah, you'll leave some places out some games on a Sometimes people do that. Let's say you didn't enter this lineup, Velma.

This would be my best example, and I'll let you rebuttal all this. But let's say you didn't play this lineup and you lost even more in this because you lost that money, but this was your best lineup and it didn't get there. And then you say, well, playing Game Stacks was stupid. Shouldn't even have done that. And then you just change gears on yourself the next week out.

And then the next week out, it's Game Stacks again that you need or something like that. It's like people are too quick to flip the switch on stuff and they overanalyze and therefore they end up making mistakes as opposed to like people that just think it's all luck. Like you don't just, it's not the same players that we're reviewing week after week and showing you the proof of it that are just winning because they're lucky. Like it takes luck.

You do need variants to fall in your favor over, over long-term, but you got to play good too. I'll let you talk to all that stuff. Anything you want to add there? No, I think you're spot on with everything for me. It's more just like, and I, I'm going back to something that we talked about just a few minutes ago, um, the game stacks make sense for sure, but I almost feel like I'm falling into a trap of, because it's so much easier to build.

Like it's so easy to put guys into spots in the game stack when there might be better plays. Now, again, it's difficult because when you just look at like a one-on-one example, like you're not playing Michael Wilson over Jamison Williams in a, you know, Lions Jets, you know, partial game stack. Um, but I do think that maybe looking outside the box more is worth thinking about. But to your point, I feel fine about the lineups I played.

Certainly the results weren't amazing, but to your point, like, On any given week, you're going to need luck to be on your side. And as I've talked about a bunch on the baseball shows and in showdown slates in particular, if you're not winning the tournaments, especially on showdown, it's really hard to make money if you're playing tournaments. That's just the facts of life. Yeah, and you're going to lose so much more often. You're going to win.

I'll just say this because this is another question from Aaron. It's a good one. It says, can you show a lineup that finished two to ten that is an example of not playing freely? I'm assuming you're saying someone who did well but didn't end up winning.

You're not going to know yeah you're not going to this is a concept and that's why this is important it's a great topic I love going in on this stuff it's what I do at DFS Mastermind it's what we do over at shipment nation it's like all of us play most of our our guys are pros and they're making way more in DFS than they are from you know working and doing content videos and things like that but just noting it um first of all something that gets very misconstrued by many If you finish this, people won't like it, but this is exactly like it is.

If you finish tenth place in a $555 milli maker, it's not that you unfortunately will not have the million dollars, the trophy or a first place to show for it. But typically, just so you know, you pretty much won. You put yourself in the spot. You control the controllables. You gave yourself a chance to get there and you almost did. Yes, there's really bad lineups. You're like, holy shit, like I can't believe that one got up there.

But when I pulled up that tournament earlier and you saw it was, like I said, a murderer's row of the best DFS pros, they're just, they don't control the coin flips down the stretch of like Trevor Lawrence kneeling at the one for some crazy reason with eight minutes left in the game. They don't control that stuff, but they put themselves in the position.

They're probably all playing really good and not playing, you know, not the opposite of what I was saying earlier, where like you could play a little bit more freely. To me, it's conceptual. I'll give you another example. Somebody who plays ten lineups, and they typically play ten lineups pretty tight. I would say if you play lighter, play tighter. So let's say they've been going for two or three weeks. We're three weeks in now. Let's just use this season. For three weeks, they've been playing...

Three quarterbacks a week. And you don't have to put an arbitrary number on it. I'm just noting it more of like, hey, they're saying I'm taking Tambo's advice and I'm not going to play every quarterback. I think we showed it earlier. Somebody had, maybe it was a little vertical. He had five lineups with Trevor Lawrence, then a couple of one-offs. Like he's committing to a spot, but then putting his best version of whatever his process is to get those other ones in there.

Imagine if Trevor Lawrence hits, he could take down top five prizes if those lineups are all similar and good and balanced. But let's say it doesn't work for three weeks. And now I know he's not going to do this for the most part and switch gears because it's clearly working. But just noting that people do this in their twenty maxTwenty-MaxA twenty-max contest lets each user enter up to 20 lineups. It sits between small-field formats like three-max and the largest 150-entry tournaments.Plan all 20 lineups before building any of them. Decide your stacks and exposure limits first, so the set works as a portfolio rather than 20 separate guesses.Full explanation ↗ or whatever it might be. They now say, you know what? This sucks, man. It's not working for me.

I need to start playing like way more quarterbacks because I got to see, I got to be able to get there. And then what they do, this is my point. They're not thinking correctly. They're like, oh, I just got to cover more angles. And so they start playing ten different quarterbacks in two lineups each. And then they have, let's use a big number, sixty percent Gibbs this week. OK, and I'm using this week blending it. But you get the point.

Let's say for the first two weeks this happened, they switch gears in week three. This week they play ten quarterbacks, two of each, twenty lineups for a twenty max tournament. And Gibbs is in sixty percent. But then they don't over check. They don't check their stuff or anything. And first of all, It's only really Geno that was needed.

So had they have kept playing the way they knew was eventually going to turn their direction, if they just, again, you don't know, but my point being the theory works, they switched off. And so now they only have two Geno lineups when last week they would have had them in five to ten, depending on how they spent their twenty lineups over three quarterbacks. But also what they noticed this week, They get mad because they say, man, I still played like sixty percent Gibbs.

I don't get this. Well, you got Gibbs. You got Gino stacks in two lineups and you didn't look at your lineups and they were they were both Almond Raw or one was Almond Raw and one was LaPorta and Jamo like you. Oh, shit. Well, guess what? The previous week had you stuck to your guns, you would have had eight to ten Gino lineups and four or five of them with Gibbs and then the chance for the rest of that path to go your direction.

So Freely is trusting your, yeah, like you said here, probably more like this. Playing freely, trusting a good rational process, typically correct. And when people go on downswings, they don't always think rationally. They chase larger buy-ins. They, oh, I got to get this back. You know what? The morning went shit for me, Belman. So I'm going to join the four forty four this afternoon and try and win $100,000. That'll solve all my problems. It's a smaller field.

Oh, you have one lineup that you're going to put in it when all the top players have multiple lineupsMulti-EntryMulti-entry means entering more than one lineup into the same contest. A contest's entry limit, such as 3, 20 or 150, sets how many lineups one user can submit.Set your total spend for the slate first, then divide it into entries. Multi-entry should spread a fixed budget across more outcomes, not raise how much you put at risk.Full explanation ↗. And that's typical behavior too. You're not speaking of outliers. Like this is the norm. So if you're doing this, don't think that like he's calling you out or anything. Cause this is what normal human nature is. For people to learn. Hopefully it helps them. Right. And by the way, I don't know everything. I'm on my own journey. I'm trying to learn as I go.

I haven't won a Milly Maker. I don't, I've got a lot of success and big prizes that I'm happy with. But I love playing this game. I love talking about this game. I love the process. It's why Melvin and I talk about all the time when Nades is on with me, they alternate weeks typically, but we're on together, all of us and just back and forth.

We just love shoot the shit on Monday morning and kind of learning from this, talking about it, seeing what we can pick up and hope to be in the spot that we're reviewing our own lineups next week on this very show. It's like, that's the ultimate goal is to get to that. But to me, Staying disciplined. I like how you added that, Aaron, for sure. Like it's definitely being disciplined and sticking to your process. A lot of people change gears. I'll give you another one.

Here's one that I think is popular right now. Chasing contest sim ROI. A lot of people are just looking for the highest contest sim ROI they can get because they think that's the, on paper, it's the best number I can find. It's like when people used to chase projected points. Yeah, you want the best projected lines. And by the way, you know, ten years ago, been doing this a long time as of you, that would work for you.

If you had some way of getting to the best projected points lineups then and you had good projections of your own before the industry had anything, yes, that was the way to win because, and it's still helpful. I'm just noting, That a lot of times people are like, you know, looking for some magic truth serum and having good Contest Sim ROI is solid. But you have to remember it's on, you know, $10,000 simulations and it's over all these periods of time.

But we're only going to play one slate yesterday. There's only it's only going to play out one time in the end. So it's, you know, all these things do work in your favor and I use those numbers myself and to my advantage, but I'm saying when people just chase, like they're selecting one lineup for their single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ tournament and they just go immediately to the highest contest, SimROI, even though the projection might not be anywhere near good for the field size.

There's too many other factors that go to it. We're not going to run through all of them here, but just noting it, they're not actually considering a lot. And that's where I'm saying people don't recognize that there's different levels to it. They just chase the next shiny new toy and be like, okay, this is what's going to solve my DFS problems. It's not how it works, unfortunately. I wish it did. And I want everyone to continue to play this game and have fun and win.

And we can keep this thing rolling. And that's the hope. But really, you can only focus on yourself. And that's a bit selfish. We try and give back via shows like this. But you got to work on your own game. And I liked where Aaron said, freely play. Equals discipline. That is something to think about, right?

You got to stay disciplined for sure with all of the facets of your game, roster construction, bankroll managementBankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗, contest selection, lineup selection, learning what all of that stuff means and how it works cohesively, right? It's totally different, right? Your lineup selection is different than your contest selection as well. So lots of different topics that we cover over at Chippit Nation and dfsmastermind.com, but any follow-up on that from you, Belvin?

No, I really like that freely equals discipline just because it's so easy to not correlateCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Full explanation ↗ the two together, but they're extremely correlated. And I just love that call out. But I'm with you on everything. I mean, we know we've been doing this for a while. It's human nature to want to get back in it. I mean, even myself, like I've rode the wave, you know, for years.

When I'm not going well, I feel like I can't wait for that next slate because I need that next slate to start. Where when I'm in a really good zone, I don't care when the next slate is. I'm chilling. I'm good. The slate will come when it comes. So just being able to have that peace of mind that I don't even have the word for it, but exactly what you're talking about. It's being able to have a strong mentality.

It's more mental than people realize this game. I don't even think people really fully understand or think about it. I've had to come on, and I say had to. Again, I love doing it, but I've got to be vulnerable myself with you guys. I talk about it like I wanted to take the nobody cares, work harder sign some weeks and throw it in the garbage. Because it's like, look, I just took a terrible beat yesterday for all this money. I was this close.

One thing I had to change, or maybe I was off a little bit in my process or whatever. It's my fault. I need to own that. But it's like, man, I do care actually. It's bothering me enough. And now I got to go freaking talk about all this other shit and who won and all this. You know what I mean? That type of stuff sometimes can, as much as we love the game, can get to you a little bit. But Again, ultimately, you can't complain.

You got to move on. You got to learn from it. And I think that's the key, right? I'll go back to this one too. Again, good ideas, bad ideas. You don't need a show for this, right? This is not a show. How to react rationally to recent results. This is exactly what I'm talking about. What I just said. You just need to recognize that it's a long game.

To Matt's point, he was just vulnerable himself and saying that when it's going bad or I'm losing or anything like that, I'm looking for the next slate. He's saying, when you're winning, you're like, I'm good, man. The next slate's tonight and I'll get to it when I get to it and I'll play it good again. I'm obviously good. I just won. You get that feeling and that high of like, I know I can do this and I just proved it again last night.

And then you go into Monday Night Football and you do your normal day. You get on your show, you talk it up, you take the congrats people give you, you move on, all of that. But there's no show needed. What you need to do is just do what your topic was going to be or your title, stay in your lane, when you win, if it only took a thousand bucks to win a hundred thousand, play a thousand bucks again. The best point you've ever made to me.

I mean, we've talked about that often and it's true. And I think about it all the time. And I think everybody who plays DFS, whether they're an amateur or a full pro should hear it. You know, our guy in the Discord, man, shout out to Lukey, Lukey zero eight. This guy's having a hell of a season in the baseball streets, other stuff too, but just, I want to note the baseball one.

So he got the SaberSim ultimate package through Ship It Nation, started messing around with contest Sims, spent the time learning, getting better at the game. And he won the mini max in baseball. I think six, I don't even want to use the stupid thing, six to eight times. I'm going to say, you know, just skip a number there, but just to note it, At least that from me seeing it. But he never changes gears. I know people say, you should go up.

You should go up. He's saying like, it is huge ROI winning the mini max for a thousand bucks or $2,500 on some nights or whatever it ends up getting to $2,000. I think I saw once like a $2,500 a couple of times, like things like that. But you want him to start throwing seven hundred fifty bucks into the five dollar. All of a sudden, that's that's a whole mini max win almost if he does that.

Or you just stay in your lane and you keep grinding and you keep turning small money into huge money. And then eventually you'll take your shots, treat yourself a little bit, move up as you feel comfortable with it. But too many people are like, boom, I want a thousand. It's the, you know, it's I'm onto the net. You know what? Three, three, three tonight. I can put three in that now and have three shots at one hundred $50,000. All right.

Sign me up. Well, everybody else has one fifty or whatever the max number is. A bunch of people, not everybody, but you know what I mean? And like, yeah, one injury dart out for the slate last week on showdown. Whoops. All that hard work to win your thousand dollars and you just buried it on something you have no control over, or you could just try and replicate it a bunch of times. That sounds pretty cool to me as well.

And I've ranted about this Tambo tangent, if you will, many times where it's like, um, man, it sucks. I never win, you know, $10,000. I'm just going to go up and start trying to win $10,000 now. It's like, have you ever won a thousand? No, but like people are trying to skip steps. The good news, the best part of DFS is you could skip full steps.

You could never win a thousand, never win $10,000, but all of a sudden your big day is $100,000. Like it's possible. That's the best part about DFS. But so many people are trying to like get, they just want to make it happen fast and overnight. And it's like the good news about DFS, there can be overnight success. There can be a big win that just happens out of the blue or out of nowhere.

But chasing it is not discipline to what we talked about, kind of the theme of this show. So thought I would bring that up just to be, you know, added on there. But our guy, Luke, he's the man for just staying in his lane, continuously having success. And he'll move up at his own pace. That's what I think. All right. That's a great call. Round it up, man. I got the, the final, um, set up here was the single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗.

People want to look at, obviously the winning lineups yesterday looked pretty similar. Like it was still a G it's what, how many different is it? Gino, Jameer, JSN, Wilson, Sadiq got away with Williams, got Kittle though. That, that helped Titans still came through like the, these are the types of lineups where you're just like, man, The weeks, I mean, so we're like the lineups are all just going to be so similar. And this is... Go ahead. I'm sorry.

This is a good example of people talk about like playing single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ drastically different from like large field tournamentsGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗. And I just disagree with that. Especially when you're in a single entry like this size with what? How many people are in this tournament? This one had... $4,000 four hundred and forty four entries. Okay. And... It's $100,000 to first. So extremely top heavy. This is the hundred dollar, by the way, that everybody likes to play.

Not to cut you off, but just I'll let you keep going. But this is what people want to play, right? Like I got a hundred bucks. I'm less than $5,000 people that we're all equal with one line of a piece. And I can win $100,000 in forty, twenty, $10,000, whatever. But carry on. But yeah, that's the tournament we're talking about. So I like where you're going with this thought.

The lineup you need to win it isn't that much different than it took to win down like the five, five, five millimeter with $5,000, you know, a thousand more people. So just goes to show you, I think that. People who play single entry, much different from large field GPPs, are just doing it wrong. Now, that said, there are all sorts of types of different single entries. If you're playing a ten-man single entry, certainly that's way different.

But these very top-heavy, large field single entries, I personally treat the same as multi-entryMulti-EntryMulti-entry means entering more than one lineup into the same contest. A contest's entry limit, such as 3, 20 or 150, sets how many lineups one user can submit.Set your total spend for the slate first, then divide it into entries. Multi-entry should spread a fixed budget across more outcomes, not raise how much you put at risk.Full explanation ↗ GPPs, just knowing that... First off, this goes to a whole different conversation of... Whatever contest you're playing now, I played the $555 and didn't enter one hundred fifty lineups in that I could have played that much money in contests that I could have max entered the field on so that there's that whole conversation. Putting that aside.

Even knowing that no one else can enter more lineups than you in a contest like this, it's still just as top heavy and you're going to need lineups that are almost as good as the Milly Maker lineups to win it. That's my takeaway. I love that call out. It's so important to remember.

You know, it's still top heavy to Nate's point in the chat, but also it's just like, I think people think $4,000 four hundred forty four entries is like forty four. Sometimes it's like, no, it's like they think like under $5,000 means nothing. Like imagine I'm trying to think of like what the best example is, but like $5,000 people in a room. It's digital, right?

Same way people enter the money online and it's digital and they get into trouble because of that, right? It's just digital money. It's never gonna add up, but it does, right? That credit card bill can rack up.

The people you're going against, you just see it as like, oh, on a piece of paper, remember you're also looking at an app where $4,000 four hundred and forty four entries is next to a hundred and $76,000 in the twenty dollar millimaker whatever the number was over there and so you start thinking that it's small it's like imagine a one hundred and $76,000 people that's three NFL you know you look at the I don't know how many people were in brazil yesterday for that game but they kept doing the overhead there for sure but like what what was the um brazil attendance for that I mean the stadium was packed for the NFL game yesterday uh record attendance of seventy

Two that rounded up to seventy $3,000 now double that and that's the twenty dollar millimaker and you're one Person standing there eating a hot dog drinking a pepsi or a coke like come on buddy like you're what you think that's good odds and and then they think like four oh $4,000 four hundred and forty four is nothing though Because it's not that. Well, it's still a whole damn section of those people. Like, are you catching the lucky t-shirt? They're shooting with the pop gun today.

Probably not. But if you do great, but it's like, you don't, you don't see it as people just don't. It's not just an average section either. It's a section of people that really know what they're doing. Yes, exactly that. These are all people that are, they're not, they didn't care. Like, what was it back in the day? Like MJ, F those kids, man. Like, they're not thinking about the kids. These are all people that are ready to catch that t-shirt.

You're in a tournament of all those people. They're in the niche. They're in the industry. They're in the space. Even if you say, oh, not all of them. It's such a small number, man. And they're all trying to win. I promise even my neighbor that throws a lineup in, he's still trying to win. So you got to think about that. Like they, they have at least something they're taking in some sort of knowledge or information. You're not sitting in an empty section.

We're the only one trying to catch that t-shirt, just using the analogy and belaboring it, but just noting it.

Um, the point you made about playing it to win, that's some of the edge in single entry still, because even though there's, uh, you know, the number might've got smaller, let's say it used to be

And and just play it poorly now is smaller that's fine but you still got to remember it's it's not about what they're doing it's about what you're doing so um it's not about how others play it's how you play could be a new one but just noting it it's like that's the concept it's like I don't give a shit I say this in satellites all the time like well technically it's still only a hundred Person satellite and you don't have to be as aggressive I'm like technically I don't give a shit I'm playing ninety nine other people and it's a winner take all.

I'm winning or I'm losing. And or I'd like in golf, I've come second a bunch of time. I mean, I've come second everywhere a bunch of times is everyone who plays satellites do. It's not a complaint or it's normal. That's totally normal because we're playing like a first or last mentality. But I'm saying when you play the way I do, I can get second in a PGA satellite with a five or six.

It's like if my golfer had just made the six of six, I'm on their heels with a five of six because I'm playing so aggressive. It's winner take all like of what you said of ninety nine other people. Maybe they're not all killers, but most of them are. So I don't know where people are trying to come up with like, oh, let me just play the safety lineup in this thing. Or, you know, hear this one all the time. Well, I'll do that in my portfolio.

But I'm not going to do that in my single entry lineup. Okay, why not? Well, too risky. All right, I would take some risk. You might want to take some on because look at the difference in score. Like you say, two, twenty three point six was still required to get the job done here. So you got to be aggressive in these things, man. Yeah, we see that so eye to eye. It's getting me amped. I'm pumped for this showdown slate tonight.

Yeah, we'll be back in less than an hour. Myself and Title, we'll be breaking it down. I'm going through the game tonight. We've got Philly at Chicago. Chicago at Philly, is it? Yeah, I think it is. I think it's in Chicago. Yeah, no, it's in Chicago. It's in Chicago. You're right. That's what it is. So yeah, excited. Case Keenum in there. It's going to be a fun slate to break down.

You guys want to go check out dfsos.com, all the stuff we used on this show today. Make sure to use code SHIPIT. It gets you the founder pricing, which is going to go up to There's just a million things inside. Like I said, the dashboard that you'll be able to use. I use it every single day now for what I'm doing. But if you want to get better at DFS, this is your starting point. There's a bunch more that goes with it.

If you want to get in Ship It Games, three more big winners this week. We've got nine golden Ship It tickets we've given away. You can get in any time. You just have to be an all access or NFL only member at ShipItNation.com. Go to ShipItNation.com. Click join the nation. All the pricing options are there.

But if you don't know or been living under a rock, we are giving away over $45,000 in cash and prizes in conjunction with our partner SaberSim. $10,000 cash to first place. $5,000 to second place. $2,500 a third and no less than a thousand to the rest of the top ten. The top three will also all get the one year ultimate membership.

We talked about our guy Lukey using it earlier to win the mini max six to eight times this year in baseball. I'm getting the ultimate package. It's a $4,300 plus to pay for it out of pocket. So first place is not only getting ten grand cash, but also the annual of the one year Shibbit Nation and SaberSim Ultimate. Just go to Shibbit Nation dot com. The early bird specials there. Click join the nation.

You can see all access options weekly, monthly, annual. You got the content only weekly, monthly, annual and then under single sport NFL. Any final thoughts from you, Matt, before we get out of here? No, man, that's all I got. Always a blast doing this show with you, man. Yeah, appreciate all the fun in the chat, all the engagement. If you guys are watching this on playback, remember to hit the thumbs up, subscribe to the channel so you guys can get more.

That's going to do it for this one, guys. From Matt, from myself, ToeTagginTambo, good luck in your contest tonight. Let's ship it!