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Projections

What Are Projections in DFS?

Last updated October 11, 2026 by Ship It Nation

DFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.

Why It Matters

Projections help you compare players and decide where to spend your salary budget. Check whether a provider reports a mean, the probability-weighted average, or a median, the midpoint of possible results, because those can differ substantially. In tournaments, also consider upside, ownership and how your players' outcomes connect.

Go Deeper

Articles that put Projections to work.

Virtual Hand Building: How to Use an Optimizer Without Losing Your Personal Style Virtual Hand Building: How to Use an Optimizer Without Losing Your Personal Style Lineup Building · 3 min read Do You Need a DFS Optimizer If You Only Play 1 to 3 Lineups? Do You Need a DFS Optimizer If You Only Play 1 to 3 Lineups? Lineup Building · 3 min read What Is Leverage in DFS? A Beginner’s Guide to Beating Chalk What Is Leverage in DFS? A Beginner’s Guide to Beating Chalk Ownership & Leverage · 3 min read

Example

Say a cheap hitter has a mean projection of 8.5 fantasy points. That estimate can include many low-scoring outcomes and a smaller number of big games, so it does not mean half his results will exceed 8.5. If he moves from seventh to second in the batting order, his projection may rise because he is expected to receive more plate appearances.

Pro tip

Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.

Hear Us Break It Down

Hand-picked moments from our free live streams where our hosts break down this term.

Why projections alone do not give you a tournament edge You can use projections to simplify difficult lineup choices, but your opponents have access to them too. In top-heavy tournaments, you also need to consider ownership and the contest you enter. “Everyone's looking at projections nowadays, especially when you're playing in these bigger, bigger money contests, everyone's using Sims.” NFL · Monday, Oct 5 25:51 ▶ Use a strong projection within a different game stack You can keep a strongly projected player while using a less popular game stack to differentiate your lineup. Judge the construction by its intended scoring path and ownership, rather than replacing individual players with whoever scored more afterward. “Use the ownership to your advantage.” NFL · Monday, Oct 5 30:33 ▶ How an injury changes the lineup choices projections favor You see how an absent star makes his teammates more appealing in projections. That value shapes your lineup choices, but the preferred construction can differ by site, including whether you spend up at tight end or use another running back. NFL · Sunday, Oct 4 7:18 ▶
More mentions 12
MON 10/12 · NFL “Our projections, your projections, other sites' projections, or ownership, and be able to backtest them in basically two clicks.” 17:18 ▶ SUN 10/11 · NFL “We have the initial projections loaded, our initial stone, as you see here up on the screen, Ham.” 20:51 ▶ SUN 10/11 · NFL “I mean, not even talking about golf himself, just preset alone looks like one of the best quarterback plays that will have on paper all year from a, you know, projection optimal standpoint.” 3:40 ▶ SUN 10/11 · NFL “So it's really just based on projection, which stems from props and price that I think Braylon Allen and Garrett Wilson are a little interesting.” 35:19 ▶ SAT 10/10 · NASCAR “If you just want to join us for NFL only folks through the entire entire season including the Super Bowl slate three hundred and forty nine dollars was that three forty nine get you entire NFL season Ship It Games entries projections...” 1:44 ▶ SAT 10/10 · NFL “Brown lineups, JSN projected for three point nine percent conditional ownership compared to twenty seven and a half percent conditional ownership for Jameer Gibbs with St.” 53:18 ▶ FRI 10/9 · NFL “You get portfolio diversification contest flashback to see what the pros are doing and projections and ownership from SaberSim.” 2:14 ▶ FRI 10/9 · CFB “And really, you're just hoping for him to get, like, they got, okay, if they're projected for twenty-three points, he gets two of them and goes over a hundred yards.” 40:51 ▶ THU 10/8 · MMA “Yeah that's fair um I more than likely will not be watching the whole card either um but for DFS I have a I have a plan of attack this week so when we talk through these fights I'll I'll say it at some point throughout but you can always...” 1:59 ▶ THU 10/8 · NFL “Like I would put him in the, you know, the projection for him is mid to high teens fantasy points.” 21:28 ▶ MON 10/5 · NFL “A low projection, . But I don't know. He looked good to me.” 19:03 ▶ MON 10/5 · NFL “QB plus two was seventeen percent of the top one percent point one percent of lineups versus the field played at a thirty three percent rate because of projections driving that.” 17:56 ▶

Common Questions

How are DFS projections calculated?

DFS projections combine expected opportunities with estimates of what a player will produce from them. Inputs can include playing time, historical performance, teammates, opponents, weather and betting markets. Models translate the projected statistics into fantasy points, and different assumptions can produce different forecasts.

Can I use the same projections for DraftKings and FanDuel?

Use fantasy-point projections built for your specific site and contest format. A statistical forecast can inform both sites, but the conversion to fantasy points must match the applicable scoring. Salary affects a player's value at that projection, rather than directly changing how many points the projected statistics produce.

How accurate are DFS projections?

Accuracy depends on the model, its assumptions and how current its information is. Even a useful model will miss individual performances by large margins. Evaluate forecasts across many comparable cases rather than one result, and check whether the published number represents a mean or a median.

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