Eagles vs Bears – MNF Showdown Shippers | NFL Week 3 | DFS Picks, Plays & Process

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You're going to give the grand scheme overview today, but it looks like Zach Ertz is going to be back in the mix. Expected to be activated off the practice squad for week three. Give us your grand scheme overview for the Eagles at the Bears here. This lower spread than I think people thought or however you want to look at it. I think people thought it would be more in the Eagles favor.

Yeah, to be honest, I haven't, I guess, been for over a year and a half, but I don't think this Eagles team is as good as the public really does, and I really do expect Ben Johnson and his coaching staff. I mean, now their ability with the one-two punch of DeAndre Swift and Monangai, even with a backup quarterback, Case Keenum, you would expect it to be wider, but I think they can run the football, can try and control the line of scrimmage.

I mean, I remember last year when these two teams played off very well because played the Eagles and Survivor pretty deep, and they just could not stop the run, and the time of possession was very much so on the Bears side. So I could see that repeating again. Now, as far as DFS, I always like to look at the captain stuff right away. Only one in Jalen Hurts showing above twenty percent.

Even when you do play him, what's nice, though, in showdown, because of the tush-push equity, his running upside, that you can play him in a lot of unique ways. You don't have to just play him with two receivers or three. You can, but it almost gets more contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ when you do it that way.

Could see saquon um moonwalking back a little bit he left last week's game and I think the first drive with the stinger but he practiced fully I'm expecting him to be full go in terms of value though it's really tough on this slate and that's why I do think we're gonna see a lot more middling builds like both kickers are projected for over twenty percent Eagles defense is projected for over twenty percent lemon almost there wicks is gonna be one of the chalkiest in the $4,000 range Gleif Raymond almost twenty percent, because when you go down to like the $2,000's and stuff, there really isn't many appealing options.

So I do think people will jam one of the studs for the most part up top and then kind of balance it out from there. And I don't mind mid-tier captains today when we talk about that because of how bad the value is.

Yeah, one of the interesting things that I would just add to that, I think it was a great breakdown, the middling factor stands out to me because what is interesting or unique to this is, like I said, already the spread's a little bit tighter than most would expect, so that naturally makes people sometimes go more to like a Philly four-two as opposed to all the way to the five-one.

Or if they are getting to five-one, it's obviously way more Likely going to be on the Eagles side.

But with some of those middling builds, if you look, and we'll get there later in the flex, don't like on the um eagle side you've got hertz $10,800 Barkley $10,000 DeVonta smith $10,600 and then you got like wicks lemon guys like that at $4,000 and the cheap $2,000 um tight ends but if you go to the Bears side you already have deandre swift just under $10,000 you've got Burden $7,600 Odunze $7,400 Loveland So it's like all the $10,000 guys are on Philly besides Swift kind of.

And, you know, Keenum even down. But then all the mid range guys, Keenum, $8,400. And those three, you know, two receivers in tight end that I mentioned are on that $7,000 to $8,000 range. So it's it's a really interesting dynamic when you're thinking about how people are going to actually build lineups. And that's what we spend more time on. Nobody knows out there watching the shows, picking winners and all this. Like they're not going to tell you nobody.

They're going to tell you a bunch of shit, but they don't know who it's going to be. But we're going to tell you how to build lineups. Lineups that's what the Stone 2.0 point oh is for I'm gonna bring it up to here two man booth today it kind of shows off a little bit better when there's three people on same screen size but we're all just jammed in there but If you're a member at Shibbit Nation, we keep it really simple.

There's the projections, which you can use within SaberSim. If you're a SaberSim member, there is the showdown stone, which is the original non-interactive version of what we're about to use. There's the Slate Station, which combines all of the content we put out written. So the cores, the tower by our guy, BG Little Neck, the cash plays, the breakdown from the show. If you miss this show or you can't watch it back, you can check it out there.

But the showdown Stone 2.0 point oh is what we're on. And I sorted it here now by ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. And this is initial. So you guys won't catch these numbers later. It doesn't really matter that they're showing them off. It'll all update once we get inactives and news and two more times before we go live. But you can swap between DraftKings and and get the MVP ownership. FanDuel, DraftKings, Captain, Flex.

But we're starting at the Captain here, and I'll let you go first, Title, with this, but you mentioned it, like how these lineups might be built, what we'll end up seeing. It does look, to your point, like Jalen Hurts will just be the top dog and then go down from there. But if Barkley comes back a little bit, Davante Adams probably stays about the same.

I just don't know that a lot of Chicago guys can get pushed up, and I don't see a lot of wide receivers coming tonight being up top. Not, I mean, DeVonta Smith, sure. But you know, even his number is kind of middling after that, like Burden way down there, Wicks, Odunze, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So give me your thoughts here at the captain. Yeah, these guys are overpriced.

Not only is it a forty one and a half total, which isn't great, but with the backup quarterback in Case Keenum and really, again, I don't think that the Eagles want to drop back hurts like Ford is too much if they don't have to.

Both of these passing attempt props are some of the lowest or some of the on the low end that we've seen both twenty eight and a half for the passing attempt prop, which then leads to these receiving yard props being terrible. Like Luther Burden is thirty six and a half Colson Loveland, thirty one and a half.

A dunes a twenty five and a half Raymond twenty three and a half this Bears offense is is not condemned for the first place because they have two running backs and then they mix in the dunes a Raymond Colson Loveland so when it's a lot of options when they all look to be overpriced when they're not expected to score as many points it is just very difficult difficult to play too many Bears at captain I I think the only one I'm really going to roll is DeAndre Swift, and I think Monangai might be second.

It's just a very contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ option. Again, I think this team's going to run the football a ton. So, $5,600, I don't mind Monangai as a mid-tier captain at two percent. Otherwise, it's really Swift. Dontavian Wicks, our guy, is... A lot cheaper than Bird and cheaper than Adunze. And he has the second highest receiving prop in this game at forty three and a half yards. Davante Adams Smith, seventy one and a half. So I do think when I talk to middling captains, I think are in play.

Wicks is one of my favorite captains. And then when you play him again, don't leave like one hundred dollars and build with the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗. But I do wouldn't be surprised if Wicks.

Wicks could be the highest uh have the most receiving yards on the slate or score two touchdowns he is very involved in this offense so him and monongai are I'm fine with and then I'm going to play the chalk up top but I think Barkley is my favorite because it kind of leverages some of that Jalen Hurts captain who's going to be higher and DeVonta smith if hurt or saquon is the one dominating on the ground those two very well could bust and that's a way to leave more salary and stuff to get different so I'm on the running game on both sides and then mainly Wicks as my favorite receiver at price.

Yeah. I think to be honest, all these, like the captains feel pretty efficient for what we're seeing here right now. But I think where it gets interesting is how you play them after the fact, because, because of the way we talked about it earlier with like the values and stuff, like if someone goes Barkley, I could see them still.

I know it doesn't always correlateCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Full explanation ↗ or how people like to look at it, but if you go here and I'll now go to flex because I have my captain in, you could say like, people might still try and put, uh, you know, Hertz. And then they still have $6,000 left per player. So it's like, all right, well, I could get the other quarterback. I could get all I like. Who cares what they like?

Let's just say it's, you know, what do we see in the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ for Flex? Loveland burdens right there. So let's just say it's Burden. We'll see. It's not Odunze versus those two. But let's say it's that you still have $4,100. And now you've got the cheap Eagles tight ends, or you've got different options that you can go to down there on the Philly receivers with Lemon and with Wicks. So this lineup kind of just fills itself out, but it's to your point.

It might not be the best way to use these options when you're doing this. So if you go back to captain here for a second, one thing I would note is like, it might be interesting to have like a Wicks lineup. And then Hertz, you've got about $8,000 left, you could run like a nice two four. Now you've got to just hope the other stays condensed, but yeah, but it's a different way to do it.

Or if you're running, let's say, Oh, someone says, okay, well, four twos are popular tonight. Well, this is a two four that we're talking about where you're putting a Eagles captain with Hertz, just using an example and then four Bears. But also if you were thinking like the other way, and I think you and I both think this, I just showed an example of why the three threes are going to be pretty popular tonight.

Well, three threes will be popular, but they'll be popular with Hertz, Barkley and Smith up top. So if you're playing Burden or Loveland or something like that in a three, three, you're like, well, but they said three threes were popular. Well, they are, but they're, it's all it's who's within them. And how are they being built again? Not, not who you play, how you play them. This is the setup. You can move these guys around and still have unique constructions.

Almost like we just did a bunch of lineup breakdowns on Takedown Breakdown, but you see the lineup, you're like, oh man, I was right. It had Warren, it had Gibbs, it had Wilson. I feel like I should have had that lineup, but they put them all together and then still got other stuff in it that's a little bit unique, like the JSN separator. How many people had Wilson and Gibbs? Lots. How many people had Wilson, Gibbs, and JSN in the same lineup?

I mean, those versions that made it to the top, yes, but not very many as a whole, right? It gets much lower the higher you go up like that. So thinking about the build type matters also in blending it with who your captain is. If you're going to play, I'm a none guy captain. Well, I don't care anymore if three threes are... I didn't flip it, but I don't care anymore if you think that...

Three threes are too popular to play there. There's almost no Monangai captains to start with, let alone three threes of Monangai. So it's like, you can do whatever you want once you have that in there as a, as a way to get different. So, um, side note, the chat's talking about it and you're a big, uh, Justin Jefferson guy. There was a different JJ though, coming from that squad, getting moved over today. So did you have any comments on this real quick?

I hope the best for him. It could not have been any worse the year prior. He's a human being. He's trying to play at the highest level he did at Michigan. Granted, they ran the ball a ton. He needs a lot to work on, but I always cheer for people like that. He's been a meme. He's been a joke. It's because he played like a joke, but he's still young. People can get better. I'm cheering for him because it couldn't have been any worse to start his career.

Maybe the JJ stands for just joking and he comes back and says he didn't play well. What about Michael Wilson, by the way, though? How good is he? How good is he? So that was my FanDuel Milly line of the $3,300. I had it with Purdy, Kittle and Wilson. Oh, wow. And that was the nice set up there. It had Gibbs with Wilson. It had... Who's got, Oh, it had a Walker and somebody, I mean, it was, it was a beautiful lineup.

Just those last two that I needed to fix up. And it would have been a six figure day, but just saying that Wilson, we talked about yesterday, just another good day. And he, he went, man, it for a while. It was like, man, he's not even catching much or getting, and then all of a sudden, nothing. And then twenty-five next thing, you know, you look, I mean, that's Jacobs Burnett and that team too. Like we talked about, he did so many outs.

I mean, the garbage time, it was, I guess, garbage time. They fought back, but yeah, they never take their foot off the gas and they dropped back a ton. Yeah, a hundred percent. Did you have like a, you know, I don't, not to rank them necessarily, but like, you know, rounding it out, is there anybody, I guess... Just sort of rounding it out. And then I'll just give a couple more things. You said ranking captain.

I mean, you mentioned it, you already kind of went through everybody there, but is there anything now based on our conversation back and forth where you're like, yeah, I probably like, let's use Keenum. I was going to say him. Like, I just don't know how much Keenum I get to, even when I get to the Chicago builds, I have other builds I'd like better currently, but what's your thoughts on Keenum? I'll probably get zero at captain.

I mean, some of the flex, we just talked about it recently. Who was, someone was like, like a, like a, like a, like a, like a, like a, like a, it feels too thin for me. If the Bears win this game, I think it's mainly on the ground or it'd be like Burden just breaking it or Colson Loveland scoring two touchdowns. I'd rather play the skill position players. But again, I don't see myself playing even too many of the bear skill position players.

I think they can win this game and still have an Eagles at captain. Like I'm more willing to do a two, four, like we talked about with one of these Eagles guys, just hoping everything funnels through them since it's more condensed. And then you can play more Bears, uh, But, man, it's really tough when you get to these Bears with how spread out they are and they all seem overpriced. But what's also interesting in this slate is DeVonta Smith, Saquon, and Hertz are all above $10,000.

Then the next highest price is the Eagles defense at $5,200. It just shows like how. It's they're so top heavy. It runs through the same people. But I do think Wicks is very underpriced in this spot. And I don't mind Lemon if you want to do that as well at $4,200. But those are two guys I like a lot. And the ability to leave money on the table when playing them because they will be owned. But $4,400, $4,200.

Easier to leave like $2,000 on the table and you're not giving up too much upside. Yeah, I truly believe you can leave at least, what would it be? Quick math here. $6,200 on the table tonight because I will definitely have lineups where I just play Wicks in Smith's spot. And I know like people, if you're hand building, it's easier to like paint this picture.

What we're saying of like if you had a hand build and you're like, man, I love this lineup. It uses $50,000. It has DeVonta Smith. People will not be able to leave those five median projected points on the table very often. But that's nuts in showdown, first of all. But they also, but if I do this, I got to upgrade this. It's just not true always.

And it's like at the end of the day, you could see a slate where Wicks beats Smith straight up and the rest of the lineup still goes with like what would have been. And he doesn't really do much at all. We've seen tons of slates. Like that. There was slates like that last year. Uh, we talked about in the past of like AJ Brown on the Eagles and Jahan Dotson beat some straight up, like for, for all the points.

So lots of opportunities, man, this, this slate, you know, I talk about all the time, but you know, this is one where you actually have them. Others, maybe not. And even with the efficient captains, like I talk about, meaning I see why when you go here, like we know why these are the most owned captains and why it's going to be pretty condensed to those four.

The reason I say that as an extra point is because to my previous point, I actually, and what I was going to add to it was I actually liked DeVonta Smith at the captain more than I like him in the flex. So it's like, I want him to be the guy and somehow make this thing work or not at all. And it's not saying I want to have anything like that. That's just, you get builds that make sense. They end up in them.

I'm just explaining the concept. And most people, as we know from doing these shows for many years, are trying to figure out how to play five to ten lineups.

Or one to ten lineups one to twenty like it's not not everybody's playing one hundred and fifty so we always try and help you know explain the difference of like a portfolio versus because you'll see a guy like I had a lineup last night with wasn't Adkins I think I could have fit Adkins or whatever that guy's name is they got the touchdown but it's like I think I had like Prentice or something ended up in a build and we talked about this because our guy Jay Walker last week said I think he had like one one to three Hooper lineups in his fifty lineups or something.

And he ended up winning fifty $4,000 with Hooper in his in his build. He's like, I was going to probably get rid of the guy. But you entitled and Hoop said, don't do that. And so I left him. And sure enough, it only takes one to get through. And he ended up. That was cool to see because you have something applying what they saw on the show. And then the next day that just absolutely. Yeah. And I've learned that way, too.

Like I said, it helped me. I used to make that mistake. So. It's definitely a learning experience. I'd love to see that. Plus, Jay Walken's an awesome dude. Michigan guy. Met him at the LaLaye Final of the Year. Hoop and I were there at the Fantasy Golf World Championship. Was out with his kids at the course. Really good dude. Deserving. Awesome job. That was a crazy sweat. He went from one fifty two point all the way down to way less than fifty.

That game was wild. Wasn't that was that now that I'm trying to remember it all, though, was that the Knowlesman solo ship? I think so. Yeah, yeah, I think it was. I think it's like that's what's even crazier about it because it was such a unique lineup that it was still a solid, like a less than ten dupes type thing. But the first prize, I think, was all to Noelsman. I can't remember. Maybe it wasn't and I'm wrong and that was a different one.

But that's the nice part.

Like last night was trending that way until it wasn't, where if you have a – a lot of people up top and like someone's winning all the money or two people are chopping it it's you are still getting a decent prize if you're not getting into these you know fifty way chops like we see that that's the nice part about building your lineups that way when you get a sweat like you said why I like to go and look it's it could be a real sweat it's it's for real money it just things can change quickly no matter what anything else up

Top that you want to talk about with uh any of these other dudes I think like someone said it earlier but like Loveland coming out to play, if this is going to be like a slog over the field.

The one thing we've talked a lot about lately, like if this plays to the total, you could definitely see a game where it's like a Loveland touchdown and some grabs and Keenum leans on him and it just ends up where he's that, but the other side is kind of like, you know, a little bit more spread out than what you would see on paper. The pricing shows how tight it is. It's Hurts, it's Barkley, and it's Smith. You just made this point.

But they do have Wicks, Lemon, Cooper, Munt, Ertz, other guys so it's like you could still see that somewhat and if the game stays lower then it would matter more so it's all just how you build and what game you're building for Yeah, I mean, to be honest, I at this point would almost want it to be Keenum over Caleb because, A, you're getting the discount to Colson Loveland.

Now, I'm making the case for him, and then I'm going to say why I'm probably not going to play it. But it's just been so bad in the first two weeks with Caleb, like no targets. Now Keenum, a backup quarterback, might rely on his big athletic tight end. Now his ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ is going to be lower because the total is lower. They're supposed to score more points. Yeah. To be contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗, that's the case. It's more unique.

For me, though, I mean, he's a thirty-one and a half receiving prop, three and a half reception prop with pretty good juice on the under. Like, man, that is really hard to put up top at $7,000, which is why his ownership's there. But I just, again, I think they're going to run the football really heavy. I think Monangai and DeAndre Swift, both their rushing attempt props, they both might hit the over when it's all said and done.

I really think they're going to try and play this game to the under, hold the possession, have their defense win the game, who played great against the Vikings last week. Yeah, I think it's interesting for sure. We do have Loveland in our stuff showing up currently more optimal, but it's not like it's that much more than Monangai. And obviously Monangai costs a little bit more, but still like that call out of like, if you're definitely in on Swift, that's how they control this game.

That's how they control the clock. That's how they lean in their favor. It is still a really good Bears team, just different quarterback, like you said, that's in there. So at the end of the day, good coach, all of those factors at home. A bunch of different things. But to me, I like that call out of like using a, someone like a Manung guy there or Swift and just building down from that way.

And I think even if you played like going to flex, we'll get there later. But if you played like Swift and the Bears D, I think you can still play those big boy Eagles. Like they got to get you. They can, some people look, Oh, you don't want to play the Bears versus hurts versus hurts. But it's like, you, you could definitely still do that on this slate. No problem. So yeah, All right, let's go to other stuff with the quarterbacks.

You mentioned the flex. This is something I just like to look at quickly. It's not like I'm trying to flip it or something. It's just the note that Keenum, he's only going to be five percent, six percent in the captain. So if he's only going to be thirty five ish in the flex, I mean, he's on four out of every ten lineups. Not, you know, any versus like Hertz is going to be on eight out of every ten. Now, you know, a big boy number.

So any extra thoughts on Keenum in the flex or like anything special there?

Fine with it but I still think like any yeah you can plug in Case Keenum and then you can play Kalief Raymond and leave the five or the $5,000 or whatever twenty or $4,600 whatever it is and be fine in the vacuum any Keenum team can go to Lemon or Wick so I'm fine with it but man it's a pocket passer with no mobility on I mean, one week, I didn't even know it was going to be him.

They got that Badgett guy, too, who I think is better, but he was dealing with some stuff. So I don't even know for sure when he knew he was going to play. I assume probably beginning of the week. It's not the best matchup. I think they're going to run the ball. I'm fine with them in the flex, but I'd be lying if I loved it. I could see that . Thirty-five going back a little bit, though, because when you play him, it is harder to play Swift.

You can still play these guys, but it's harder to play multiple of Swift, Hertz, Barkley, Smith, and the field is definitely going to prioritize them. Yeah, and this was just yesterday, like just talking about it, is the Case Keenum, Bajan injury revealed ahead of the Bears game. I think people thought it was going to be Bajan. Then, you know, the concussion serving as the backup, though. So, like, there's still room for some wild stuff here tonight, man. It's just the way showdown always goes.

But we knew, like you said, who knows when he eventually found out. But the Bajan stuff, if you just search on DFSOS.com by Bajan, you can get the quick latest news on that and sort of, find your way back because it updates from all different sources. But it looks like Keenum on track was a day ago. Badgent clears concussion protocol. So when was it? Just nothing more than a day ago. Two days ago. They clarified Badgett was going through the concussion protocol.

So it's, I mean, just very recent that this sort of came through and then he took the necessary steps to practice. That's not like following the news a little bit. It's not like it helps with picking the lineups or anything like that, but just knowing kind of what's going on to your point of Keenum, just kind of finding out that it's going to be him and rolling in there and having to be ready to go makes it somewhat interesting.

Hurts, I think just, you know, for me, a lot of you know, flex for sure, but also it's going to be accordingly. Like if I have Barkley up top, it's not, I'm not ruling this out. I'm just saying, I'll be thinking about that. Like usually if Barkley up top, you're going to have, um, you know, PPR guys or defenses or things like that, that you can find in the flex more often than you'll find the quarterback.

And then obviously the, the two of them on a single slate makes more sense than on a main slate when they can sort of cannibalize each other, when you get down to the goal line with the tush push and all those things, but anything else you want to add at quarterback, if not, it'll get busier now talking running back wide receiver and tight ends, but anything else at the quarterback or on the hurt side? No. Yeah.

The more I think about it though, the less I like Keenum. I mean, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, I'm like, No, that's all I got. Running back, I think it's pretty clear.

I mean, it's Swift and Mununga, and you don't have to worry about anything else. You can play them both. Again, I believe, I don't have the exact numbers, but when they played last year in like week twelve or Thanksgiving weekend, they really used both of them and just pounded the football. A lot of third and shorts made life really easy. Granted, again, it's easier with Cale Williams and his rushing upside. The defense has to account for him.

But I am fine with Monangai and Swift in the same lineup as well, getting almost all of the work. As far as the Eagles side... Oh, man. Obviously, Saquon, I think he's a good play. But like Tank's $5,000 Shipley's $3,400. They're clearly pivots in that kicker defense and Wicks range. He's going to be lower on than all of them. But if Saquon doesn't get hurt, he has he had a stinger like he's going to be having his normal workload.

What does Tank need to do at $5,000? Probably a touchdown. That's plus six fifty. That's like Saquon breaking off a long run or catch and needing a breather and him just punching it in. And again, with the tush push equity, it's pretty tough. Like it's almost you're playing it just to be straight contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗. And Will Shipley actually has a real price tag at $3,400, too. So.

I think I really probably only have three running backs in my pool, and that's the Saquon, Swift, Menunga, but I do like all three. I think I prefer more at the captain, at least Saquon, Swift, than the flex, but I don't know if that's necessarily true. They both can fully get there. Their best two touchdown props on the slate, minus one, ten, Saquon, plus one hundred, Swift. The next best is Hertz at plus one sixty.

So I do think you want running backs in this game. Yeah, I think the double. So we had the Bijan, Brian Robinson Jr.. When was that? Thursday? Yeah, Thursday night football. We got the Bijan up top, Brian Robinson Jr. in the flex. You could have a Swift-Medung guy flip, and it could be either of them because they both are just so electric with the ball at hand. And then, like you said, you could get some checkdowns from Keenum, get the ball out quick.

It's to one of those guys, and then they just get free and get loose. So I think that's interesting. I also think it would be interesting just to use both of them together in the flex even. Then you can really stack up. The way the pricing sorts out, it's like you'd have nobody of Keenum, no Burden, no Loveland, no Odunze. You'd be getting nothing else on Chicago. It would be a four-two, but how many people are going to run a four-two with money on the table with...

Um, two Bears running backs. And people said, well, some are for sure. But then again, who's your captain? That's another thing. All right. So four twos are popular. I think some people are going to run the two running backs together. Fine. But then what's your setup of the lineup and the captain and how many things there. So one back, this one was from earlier, uh, Earth's captain. Not for me. I don't even know how many snaps he's going to play. He would need two touchdowns.

I'll have some in the flex for sure, but what about you? Are you going to have any? He's cheap enough on a slate where no one's cheap that – I mean, Higbee had a great game yesterday, so I don't mess it up for that. That's what I was going to say. That lineup everyone's talking about that was up there. Um, that's the one. And you saw it too, that that was a Higbee Higbee build, right?

Go collect said it came close to nobody cares. Work harder. That's why we got the sign, man. But the, um, the thing about hurts and I don't like, he's not Goedert first of all, but, and he's literally coming back from who knows what's going on. Like he was, he had a terrible leg injury that he was rehabbing from, from us. So it's like the only thing is, and it would be crazy. I mean, I don't foresee this by any means, but it'd be building for it.

But yeah, Like two one-yard touchdowns? What's that do? And then you kind of can fit whatever you want. You'd have to get different combos around it. But I just don't know if he's going to be... Last night is a prime example. To me, Ertz, people know the name, but nobody's clicking Ertz tonight. He's at Higbee levels of captain ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. And that's the difference. It's when... I think people don't focus on this enough or follow it or understand it or whatever, but it's like...

I'm trying to find an example. There's not many on this slate, to be honest. But let's say Wicks got steamed up to like four or five percent in the captain. Three to five percent. It's not about the three to five percent because that's not that much still in the grand scheme of things. But what people are missing is like when it's a very popular value play captain, it's then that allows you just to jam in the five best plays.

Like, I hope you're playing a ten-Person or less tournament. And even there, it might still be duped because if it's that popular and it checks out that well, then people could be on it. But when it's Higbee, when the whole world's on Ferguson and then there's other options and there's all of these things, the way that works is... Not only do you leave some money on the table so you make sure you don't completely dupe it.

That's why my Higbee was a unique lineup last night. The other Higbee that was in first was only duped once. And that's just luck of the draw. There's so many tournaments. It was playing to be a solo though. So it's like, that's the difference. If you have a guy like that tonight that you like, like an Ertz or a Lemon or something like that, like Lemon might be one or two percent. Just don't max it all out and then think about the rest of the lineup.

But you're not really getting... You know, a scenario like last night where it was like Ferguson was jammed at the captain already. No one on Higbee. Well, that's to me, that's where you're looking for leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ that you can get it. And it's not that crazy. Like Higbee had a better game because no Ferguson coming back or he kind of came back to the sideline, never came back in. But you know what I mean?

That's a spot where you can also leverage it. So it's just, I don't like playing the cheap captains. In the lottery style portfolio tournament type stuff where you're just going to land on the same lineup as everybody else. I don't know if you got anything else to add there, but yeah, No, you just need them when you're doing that. Yeah, like when you're making the punts, even if no one has them, don't fall into the same roster build.

But on most slates, you still need them to usually have a solid game, and Pigby most definitely had a solid game. You didn't need them either. Like, stay off my grass is right. I mean, how classic to have a name as stay off my grass. Like, old man yells at the crowd. We're not talking about this, the winner. We're talking about how you can use a certain play to your advantage. And it's not, again, not about the play. It's how you play them.

We're talking about how that would work to your advantage on a slate like this, where you're getting unique, being able to actually have a chance to ship the whole tournament and outright for all the money, but not be playing stupid. It's like, obviously Higbee could catch passes, whether or not Ferguson stayed healthy or not. It gets better if Ferguson leaves the game, but you're not building it or cheering for that. It's just noting how you could use it to your advantage.

My last thing on wide on running back, then we'll go to wide receiver. Um, I don't know who it's going to be, but if you had the build, like, I think there could be like a Bigsby spot. I know you mentioned him quickly and like kind of thought around it and obviously Shipley still there and all that and Shibbit Nation, we kind of got to play them. You're, you got to just, you know, endorse it.

But just noting like those guys, it's what type of build are you putting them into? And that's what you have to think about. So. Eagles dominate, I think it would be my favorite. Almost prefer him with Saquon, kind of like how Bijan and Brian got there on Thursday where, I mean, why roll Bijan out there? Let's get Brian in the box. Eagles up twenty eight three or something. Then you'll see them come in. And by then, Saquon already does the damage.

That's my favorite scripts to put those guys in. There's the core tonight. It's it's Barkley captain. Bigs B, flex. Eagles D, flex. Run it. See what happens. There you go. Can you get the late pick six like the Broncos got it done? That was crazy. Higbee would have been there if it wasn't for Mumfield. Another cheapie just had to nuke one drive, three straight balls, and just boom. That's the reason. And Nevis had a great game.

So things got jumbled up at the bottom where everyone smashed. But if Mumfield doesn't have that drive, you need Higbee. Yeah, agreed. And it's like that's also a product of how the slate plays out. Like you said, you get that Mumfield huge touchdown and all that stuff. It's just crazy. But the Denver, I forgot about that. The Denver touchdown at the end, the Broncos. So that's crazy as well. But yeah, you need that. Take us into wide receiver.

We talked a little bit about our boy Wicks, you know, DeVonta Smith, obviously the guy getting the most ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. You mentioned about Burden abilities and what he could do for your lineup and sort of he could open this game up too, right? If they get something going to him early or anything like that. So think about it from that perspective. But what's your thoughts here at the wide receiver position? Easy on the Eagles side, it's Wicks, DeVonta Smith, Lemon.

When we're talking flex, to be honest, I'd probably go Wicks, Lemon, DeVonta Smith. Honestly, I don't love too much salary, $4,400, $4,200. Good price tags, ability to leave money. Like you said, you are you're going to have some Smith teams that go directly to Wicks. I probably will myself on the.

Uh, bear side, like a doomsday is just so overpriced in my opinion, even though he's going to be the lowest owned in the flex or I do think a doomsday probably lower on than Raymond when it's all said and done, we have a pretty close, but $7,400 just really hard for me to get there. Burden $7,600. I'll definitely take some shots at just the best receiver can get the ball in his hands in different ways.

But still, the props are bad for pretty much all these guys at price. Raymond, though, I do like a decent bit at thirty seven.

Eight hundred but man like Raymond cleef Raymond chalk it's kind of what we're looking at he's getting a good amount of targets none of them are really downfield for much so I feel like it's a floor play and a floor play at chalk in a large field tournamentGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗'s not my favorite way to go about it so I really don't love this Bears stuff as much, but then the whole field Bills, the Eagles. So I'm almost forced to play some.

And that kind of comes back to, I just, I don't love this slate personally, but Hey, I'm happy kind of because again, last week I didn't like, and I won and I liked, and I lost. So yeah, I'm still playing it. Of course. Yeah, what's your thoughts on this? We'll give it to the chat like this question from our boy Sean Sully. He says, do you think they incorporate Barkley more in the passing game with Goedert out now? Yeah, they should.

I think it probably depends more on what the Bears defense does. Are they getting aggressive? Are they playing zone? One high safety, two high safety? So much in the NFL nowadays. I think they were talking about it in last night's Sunday night's game. I've watched so many games, so I don't know. But what the safeties do pretty much depends on everything. When you play too deep nowadays, you're inviting the run and teams are more Likely to do it.

If you're getting all run over, then you stack the box more and you play one safety, they take shots. So I think it's really what the Bears do on defense and how the game flow starts depends on that. But yeah, I'd be smart to. I wonder if the, I mean, we'll get to the Eagles D later, but it's, it's a little inflated. I can see it from ownership projections already.

Cause people see going up against the third string quarterback, et cetera, et cetera. But. And just people can't go all the way down like the $1,000 $2,000 options. I feel like it just leads right into that kicker D Wicks lemon range. And it's pretty hard to ignore, but. Yeah. The Eagles. I think, yeah. What are the Eagles? $5,200 on this slate.

So they're like, you know, they're a lot more than some of these other guys that you can play the Eagles or you could play Wicks Lemon, like you said, or, you know, Bigsby. You could play. There's a ton of options you could flip to there as well if you don't think that's the case. But that would be like the other side putting up some points as well with Chicago. But I think it's at least somewhat interesting. Any other takes? Do you have different for me?

Like, are you playing or not? Of course you're playing. We play a lot of teams, but like if you were playing one team or something, Odunze, Khalif Raymond, like what do you think of these guys? Not as high on Odunze or Raymond, right? I definitely like Smith is still fine, especially, like I said, I'll put him in the captain more than the flex. Probably that's where I see an opportunity.

But if you're a Hertz captain, then, you know, I'm fine with Smith in the flex if you're doing that. But like, I like Wicks. I like Luther Bird in the third. I like Lemon. The chat was talking about this guy. I got a little bit of him in my run earlier too, just the first look, but like Jadae Walker.

I don't, I'm not, it's like always like, I know like it is technically linked to this, but it's also just really, cause you're looking for like options on the slate. Like he's kind of the same price right in between arts and months. He's, he's right there just above Darius Cooper, who I don't think anyone's really going crazy with anyway, but just noting it, it's like, they say like, Oh, but he played with Keenum before, you know, in the preseason or whatever.

So it's like, maybe, maybe something like that, but I don't know. He's not someone I'm high on by any means. So just noting it, I will say our guy, um, Hamwich super high on Sadiq yesterday and says hot take Luther Burden scores a forty five yard TD on a reverse. He's gone the whole way. I tried to joke. This guy's actually on the dead on one like he's forty five exact yards, full on touchdown all the way there and on a reverse.

What do you think about it? I mean, you said it. This could be it. Yeah, no, too sharp is Hamai for sure. But I do think, again, why Burden was my favorite is there can get him the ball in multiple different ways. Screens, reverses, play action downfield. He's by far their most explosive. So, I mean, yeah, if you if you call that, I mean, he went right down to the actual yardage. So that's a buy a lottery ticket or a lot if you somehow think that one.

If you get. Yeah. If it's forty four, though, you're out, man. Yeah. Then don't do it. Sorry, buddy. Not good enough. Come back next year. What else? Sadiq is a dog. I agree. Sorry. No, you're good. He definitely was yesterday for sure. And I mean, he is, but I'm saying like the perfect storm yesterday. And I think that's what we just went through on takedown breakdown was like a lot of people just immediately went to Williams.

And it's like Sadiq was right there already. No Mason Taylor on top of that, by the way. So it was It was the snap counts for me, but then I just looked this morning. He only played fifty eight percent of snaps or in week three as well because he went forty two percent to thirty six percent, which is what scared me. Then he only played fifty eight percent of snaps, though, in week three. And he does that.

So it shows that a lot of his snaps are pretty high leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ stuff. But man, without a Donnie Mitchell, like they clearly didn't like that Williams guy much. It was just so concentrated between Garrett Wilson and Satoshi.

I think yeah I don't know if you saw that when you looked at it too but I think someone was saying this morning he was out there a bunch just didn't go his way and obviously still an option Williams yeah yeah no he was I think he was that let's see yeah eighty nine percent of snap like it just man he was getting cardio in like it was just Garrett Wilson and sadiq like there was no one else but for sure someone that cheat that played that many snaps in that game it was a good play I saw it somewhere, but it was the follow-up because Wilson got hurt late and it almost was like nothing was made of it because of the way that everything happened.

But did he end up just clearing concussion protocol or what happened with him? Do you know? I thought he – I didn't know that. When I'm watching, I'm watching every single game on two TVs and stuff and only being able to listen to one. So I didn't know that, to be honest. On his touchdown or after his touchdown? I thought it was like – Later in that game, I was trying to see. Cleared after concussion evaluation. That's what it was.

It was very late in the game, but he already did his work, so it didn't matter. But yeah, that was one thing I wanted to see just to be sure. How much of the Raymond stuff our boy Nate says is just Caleb making plays happen? Hard to say. I mean, the first week obviously was all those targets that people saw, but we'd seen that before with guys.

So it's always tricky to figure out, but that's why I prefer – I mean, Caleb also can extend the play more, and I don't know if that necessarily is to Raymond strong suit. I think Raymond being the slot guy, gadget guy that get the ball quick for five yards might even suit him more for Keenum, but I don't know.

Yeah, so a couple things here that all tie together so we can move on after this, but just like it says, everyone acting like the spread is massive and it's four point five. I think the Bears are competitive home. Hope the field keeps it like this all day. I think you're right and wrong. Not rudely, just factually. I think like, yeah, everyone is acting like it's a massive spread, but the lineups aren't acting like that as we talked about off the top.

Like people are not building a lot of five ones. You're seeing four twos and three threes still be pretty prevalent, at least from what I'm seeing early on.

It's just too, the way the builds work out, we explained, it's kind of like the pricing breakdown when there's all the $10,000 guys on one side, all the mid range guys on the other, and then flip back and say the values that people would want to play like Wicks, Lemon, and I'll give Ertz a little bit of credit just for the name value, let's say, well, that's going to lean to a lot of four, two Philly and three, three Philly.

So, you know, if you think it's, it's, It can be a close spread, but it can still be dominated by one side in a DFS game, just like it can be a blowout for a team and then other people can still come along because the way one side's more condensed, one side spreads out more. So the main thing I was getting at here, Title, is just thinking about like how you're building. I love Ross.

He's always in the chat saying, you know, supporting Ross Klein. Great dude says, what about Cooper guy? We don't know if I knew I would just put him in my lineups or not. Like, is it? No one will know, but what you need to do is build accordingly. So what lineup that you can see as a possibility, it's like your, like our leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ lanes, your lane, what lineup would feature Cooper being involved? Is it, uh, you know, Barkley goes up early hurts.

Isn't really needed, but late in the game, Cooper catches a touchdown. Then you got to build that that way.

If it's no hertz has himself a night and decides to get one more and reward his boy uh cooper at the end for the for the game winning last week to give them another one this week before they kind of settle off and sail into the sunset well then that's probably that lineup with hertz with um hertz up top and cooper in the flex is he the mump field of last night and he fits in that way like is is jadae walker the play in the same spot it's still a five one or something heavy on Philly's side but it's like at the end of the game when Philly lets off the gas It's Jadae Walker getting a touchdown because that's who Keenum knows.

And if Keenum still in the damn game, who knows? This guy can stay healthy and take some of these hits. But just noting it, apply all these things. So it's not against Ross, just using it as the example for you guys. But that one is a big one for me. And why I also like to check my lineups over when I build my portfolio. Like I tell people this all the time, everybody just reviews the results. Well, first of all, most people don't review shit title.

The next day they just move on, deposit again and go play the next slate. But for those that review, I think it's still doing yourself a disservice when you just look at what happened after the fact. Cause first of all, not at results. I'm usually looking at like, how did I play? What was my SIM ROI? Like how did things shake off? I'm checking all that stuff. But I'm talking about checking your lineups before you submit them.

Same reason I don't like to set a lot of rules in showdown. Well, I think you should do this. You should only do that. Well, but the answer is anybody thinking means they don't know. We're just thinking about it. So we don't know what the answer is. So we've got to build accordingly. Is there anything side note on like a strategy perspective, just like pre slate, post slate, anything that you do like that or differently that you think others could apply to their game?

Yeah, of course. I'm always looking at what I'm doing versus what are the pros doing? How am I simming? All that stuff. One unfortunate thing, I guess it wasn't necessarily unfortunate, but I don't build too early in the sense of like I wait for news, but I do like I thought Zay was going to miss. So like after the show and stuff, I was building for that and then I got most of it done.

But because I'm playing on multiple sites and different tournaments and cash and everything then we got news that he was almost in so I had to almost run my process and all this stuff to get it in without being able to adjust my own stuff so like initially I'm building and I'm bumping Michael Wilson and Trey McBride and all this but then now I'm flagged for time because Got to get FanDuel and DraftKings in and then Cash.

And then I really just had to kind of trust the process, which, again, you should have a process for reasons like that. And I felt good about it. But this year I have liked to put a little I know ball spin and stuff on, which I wasn't able to do as much this past week, which I was a little sad about. But, yeah, that's just something. Yeah, I like that. I think for the Zay situation, that's pretty much what I did.

But in, you know, a little opposite, I was supposed to vote in the Discord yesterday, but my, I know ball spin was like, I'm not going to need them. And he ended up being great. I just played too much. Like before that, like on FanDuel, I had like, like, like, like, And I thought that was a big enough hit to them, which it clearly was. When Zay is on the field, he is taking all the attention. I was like, yeah.

And I didn't think the field would adjust enough to the Bateman and stuff. So it was mainly getting them out instead of playing Zay. The annoying part was, is like Bateman still had so many chances. The over throw at the end was like a touchdown waiting to happen. It was over his head, like just little things like that.

So it could still, could have came through, but it's, I like what you said there because it wasn't just you adapting for, it's so important, I think, to bring this up because I'm, and I'm glad you did it that way. It wasn't actually that you were adjusting or wanting to adjust. To play Zayn. For more Zay. That's what I think people take the wrong way sometimes. Like, well, so wait, you wanted more Zay? No, it's how does Zay affect this? Here's another one.

Saints D yesterday was popping and we had them popping on FanDuel, things like that too. Again, we're going to be wrong on things also, but like noting it, but like once Bowers is fully healthy and in ready to go and like all that type of thought process, you're like, oh wait, Like maybe that's not such a good idea. So that's my like living in the past right now. It's like Jalen Warren ended up being a freaking workhorse. Could have had even more, like you said.

And the Saints D were going up against Bowers, Gentee, like almost everybody over there now at full strength. So I was like, oh man, I'm not sure if that's the best setup. And the two V two was like, my two B two was Jadarian Price and the Saints versus Jalen Walker or sorry, Jalen Warren and, um, either the Titans or the Browns. And in hindsight, it's like Jalen Warren and the Browns is so obvious.

And that actually wouldn't even get, that would've got me third place, not second, like the other version, but third, uh, Makes sense because you're not on Hubbard, who everybody's on over there. So you are on Warren, who lots of people are still on, but you do it with the Cleveland D, which is not the Titans D, and it's the defense against Hubbard. So most people wouldn't have that. Again, the process piece of like thinking about that. Oh, could have just done that.

It's hindsight is twenty twenty, but you want to win or learn. Right. You want to move on to the next slate. So. So let's move on to the next position. Let's go look at the tight ends. We talked a little bit about Loveland. We talked a little bit about the name. So this is interesting because I don't know if any of the tight ends outside of Loveland are going to be over ten percent in flex. Crazy.

I don't think they really should be necessarily, though. I am going, I mean, yeah, just looking at the props for these guys. Zach Ertz, ten and a half. Johnny Mutt, nine and a half. Cole Komet, eight and a half. Loveland's expensive, thirty-two and a half. With all that being said, though, again, this whole story we keep talking about is just really not any value on this slate. $3,000 and below is terrible. Well, three came below is Zach Ertz, Johnny Munt, Cole Comet.

You can add in, I guess, EJ Jenkins, the Sam Roche guy. I actually will play a little probably Sam Roche because he's six hundred dollars. Like find me anyone within $1,000 of him that will even be on the field a little bit. So for that reason alone, he could get a zero and it work out on this slate. But if there's no value at all below $3,000 besides these tight ends, they're going to be on the field.

Let's just hope we get another tight – I mean, it feels like it's been national tight end week looking at George Kittle, Brock Bowers, Noah Fant, Jawan Johnson, Davis Allen, Higbee. Like, let's keep it rolling into Monday, I guess, because if one of these guys are optimal, that'll be an easier way not to have as many dupes because it almost gets you on a different roster construction because people are avoiding this range. Well, I think it's always a good idea.

I know sometimes we like to look it up and see what you're doing with these guys that we just randomly talk about. And one thing that is good, do you know anything about Sam, anything about this guy at all and what he looks like or anything? I just know he's six hundred and zero might be enough. So if zero is enough at six hundred, it makes sense. That is the key, my friends. And that's why you want to do it, because if anybody wants to Google him.

And pulls up. These are the first two things that pop up. Yeah. Look at that handsome dude. Well, it was like a couple of, maybe I'm on the wrong thing. Just go back. Oh, can't catch. Can't block. Yeah. It was like, can't catch. Can't block. And then I can't find all the other stuff, but it was like, there was another one. It was, I think it was this one that pops up.

And then someone had like one of those, um, look, buddy even went and got his own thing changed. This is, he didn't want that picture. This guy got me like, uh, the looks maxing from clavicular. That guy, like he, he went and look at this thing. Go back. Here's his picture. It's like these glasses. I'm trying to see if it's in here. It's this one.

I'm not even going to click it in case it goes away, but he got the shades on with the little. The fighting nerds glasses. Yep. And then you go to ESPN. This man had his PR team write an email to ESPN.com and say, get that picture changed immediately. Look at this thing. So look at that one catch for nine yards might be two catches for ten yards and a touchdown after tonight. One catch for nine yards might be all you need tonight, though.

Exactly. At six hundred. So if you go to that, maybe. So getting snaps, like people said. But to your point, it's kind of like an inverted version, but not really because he won't really be played. Like, what's his ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ going to be? One percent. The tricky part is the one percent could be the lineup that holds all the dudes. Right. So it's like you do got to think about that somewhat. But the other thing is that this makes me think of now totally separate topic.

Aside from that, it's just my thoughts on that rush play. Get it totally. And how I would build is leave a little bit of money on the table and not play the five main dudes. But just noting it, And last thought on like, that could be the DeVonta Smith, drop them down to wicks. Well, that would be a way to do it differently. Now you've got a one percenter in a lineup and no chance that people have that. So that's something there.

The other thing though, is like back to now the, you know, the DeVonta Smith, the Luther Burden, the Swift, the menung guys, the Loveland. I don't, you didn't like love them as much. We're just noting it kind of like these mid tier captains more as the show has gone on, because now it's like, to me, I can really do so much. And yeah, it sucks not to have Jalen Hurts or Barkley up top. I'll have them in some, but I'm guessing I'm underweight.

Maybe I could be field with Barkley if he comes back down some, but I can pretty much guarantee I'll be underweight on Hurts just based on this because best captain, probably, but best for this slate, we'll see and how it plays out because all the other options that we've just mentioned. So I think that it could be interesting from that perspective, at least some. Oh, damn.

Now I messed up and I clicked this ESPN page and I'm getting like a rush highlight here. Let's see if this is correct, man. This guy's just busting guys, man. Just crunching them all the way into the end zone. Does three spins off these guys. What did he go to? Stanford? Stanford guy? I don't know. San Jose or Stafford, whichever side he was on here. Sam Rush. Yeah, I mean, people are now probably like, why do we keep talking about this guy?

I mean, Johnny Muntz, you can also like will be in play a little bit as well. Again, the moral of the story, these guys are less than ten percent and they're in a range that like no one's really playable. So at least they're going to be on the field a little bit. The glasses all make sense now, by the way, though. The month punt is good as well.

We go on these little tangents once it's late in the show and people already know what it is. But major academic. Now we understand the glasses with the tape, buddy. This guy got on a come up here. Huge. Sixty ninth overall in the draft, by the way, to nice. Nice place for him this past year. Stanford grad three point eight GPA working towards a master's degree with a focal with a focus on A.I. And engineering. Yeah, that's a sharp dude for sure.

But he's just crushing it. Yeah, Kemet is on the other side too, by the way. No one wants to talk about him, but he's been the guy that's been hitting the end zone there for Loveland when we play Loveland. So I don't know. I think the tight ends are the good value options that you could punt to here. Johnny Munt, the punt, we talked about it.

I don't even know if Ertz is going to hit ten percent by the end of the day, so we'll have to wait and see. But I think there's a ton of ways that you could go here in the flex position that I'd be interested with these guys being your options. And this would also be where – Again, can you play them both of like a Wix and a Munt or something?

You can, but it's also like could be a spot where you play him instead of him and it's not probably what you want, but it's like that would be the way that it would get there and you'd be able to have a different setup. So Sam Rush, that's the guy. Now Kickers and D's to round it out. Anything on the Kickers and D's? Yeah, I mean, I like them. They're going to get owned.

I think my favorite would probably be just Santos because any Elliott or Eagles defense can go to Santos. And I do think the Bears move the ball. I think it does play to a lower scoring game. The one thing, though, I'm a little nervous about defenses besides the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ on the Eagles is you almost want – like people kind of get confused for defenses.

The upside and for them to be optimal, you almost want the other team to drop back a ton because you have a ton of – opportunities to get strip sacks to get like the Raiders defense yesterday in a high scoring game, like Chuck just kept dropping back and giving them chances.

If I think the Bears and the Eagles are kind of going to pound the football, it limits the opportunity that defenses can get sacks, can get chances for pick sixes and all that.

So I think I like both kickers more than defenses, mainly because I'm worried again, they're going to pound the football, but it's still a little bit of a, it's still a little bit of a, it's still a little bit of a, it's still a little bit of a, it's still a little bit of a, it's still a little bit of a, it's still a little bit of a, it's still a little bit of a, Yeah, I think you said it best with the Santos point versus going against the other two.

I think we'll still see... I think we'll still see Eagles D slightly higher than Jake Elliott. Like we have it, but it's also, I think a little overinflated to what it is, because I think like you mentioned, like I could just see Swift, my nun guy, the short passes that set them up.

Well, like they're not trying to get, you know, people, someone mentioned earlier, do you think you could play badgent and, you know, Keenum goes out, you can do whatever you want on a showdown slate, but it's just saying it. I don't think the Bears are trying to get to that point. They're already down to their QB three. QB two is the backup tonight coming out of concussion protocol. Do you really think they're trying to get all of this stuff? I don't think so.

Yeah, you would need an injury. I'd be shocked if Keenum has such a bad half and they throw in Badgen after. I mean, maybe, but I feel like this is Keenum week. I'd be surprised. I think that's what they're going to try and get to here. So, yeah, I think it's going to be that.

I think, like someone said, it could play a little bit of a tighter game than expected, but a tighter game could also be to a lower total as well, where these teams are just running clock. That's the thing about, like... Look, Burden, Wicks, Smith, those guys can get loose, definitely. But also, don't forget Hurts, Barkley, Swift, Monangai. Again, if they break free and get loose, it's going to be a problem for moving it quickly.

But otherwise, Loveland, Hurts, guys like that, the other tight ends we mentioned, these are just catches over the middle. Clock burns, runs, run into wall, burns, timeouts. People will be trying to do stuff to save time, but it's like there's... There's a setup here where it could just be a game like that.

So remember that when you're building too, and you only got one lineup and you think others are building differently, then you could think about that as well and use it to your advantage to build something that makes a ton of sense, still projects really well, but is for a, just a completely different roster construction, captain and game script than what others are doing. I talk about all the time, but like, um, contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ correlatedCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Full explanation ↗ constructions, triple C, right?

It's like, if you can get to something that's contrarian, but it's still correlated, it's like how the game would play out. And it's a unique construction to what everybody else is doing, then that can still work. You just need the game to go that way. And if it doesn't, the worst case scenario, you lost money like we always do anyway. Like it's like, you're losing it. For that anyway, but at least build for the, give yourself a chance, right?

Don't just build the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ nuts and say, well, that one projects the best or this one is the one that I think has the best this. Like you got to make sure it's for how you want it to actually play out. It's your money that you're putting in on the line. So, all right, man, anything on the FanDuel side that you see, we're playing the job of hoop here, just trying to look at this, but anything on the FanDuel side? Values even tougher.

And one guy really stands out and that's a lemon at $3,800. Like he is going to be really chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ because there's no one in that range. Zach Ertz is two hundred less, but still lemon projects for like three points higher. Will Shipley is down there. But besides that, no one's lower than them. Yeah. Talking about like who's overpriced. Menungai is nine point $6,000. Uh, Luther Burden is fourteen hundred cheaper than Monangai. Um, so that's just, I don't, to be honest, I don't even hate it.

You're overspending to be contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗, but with how I think the game's gonna go, it actually makes some sense to me. Um, And then I do think that lowers DeAndre Swift's ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ because he's $11,400. He's six hundred more than DeVonta Smith. And he's like sandwiched in between the Saquon, Jalen Hurts, who people will prioritize. So I think it's almost even more so five. Five one builds on FanDuel and DraftKings. People aren't really going to want to play Bears.

So that is a way you can get different if you want. Wicks is all the way up to $7,600. I think this does allow or to force people to play a lot of the kickers, defenses and then lemon as the punt, because people are still going to want to play the spend up. MVPs like they are on DraftKings. So similar, I think, on both sites where Eagles dominant builds, even more so maybe on FanDuel.

And the value is just really screams lemon. So know that if you plug him in right away. Yeah, the one thing that stands out to me right away is Swift. He's only, what, eight hundred bucks cheaper than Barkley. I think Barkley and Hertz could hit like fifty to sixty percent MVP ownership over there combined.

So, you know, you just can't get ownership on the Chicago guys, especially up top, really, because don't forget the third guy that gets it closer to sixty to seventy five percent up in the MVP is Smith. So it's like, there's just not many ways. Then people will take some chances on Wicks or things like that. Maybe even the kickers and the Ds some over there up in the MVP. So it's like, there is not much left on the Chicago side. And you and I talked about it both.

I think Swift and Monangai is, what is he? He's expensive. He's ninety four. Yeah. $9,600. $14,400 in the MVP. But $14,400 is almost $4,000 cheaper than Barkley. And like, how would the game go differently to me? Like the only way is Swift or Menon guy getting loose, controlling the clock, having something go their way. And by the way, that could still be like a two four. If it's going to be five, one Philly, you could say, no problem.

Let me go with Chicago up top. What makes sense with that? And then give me four of the Eagles on the other side. And you just hope that they spread it out a little bit more or have to because Monangai gets loose or Swift gets loose. And that ends up being the way that they control the clock and the game and it stays under and all of that. But I do think that's intriguing because when you see eighteen, three, Barkley and $17,100 Swift.

I know it's enough money, but it's only twelve hundred dollars in the MVP. I'm pretty sure you're going to find that twelve hundred bucks and just get to Barkley value or not on the slate available. So good breakdown, man. Any final thoughts from you before we get out of here? I think it's going to be a fun one tonight. Lots of different ways you can go about playing it. Lots of good interaction in the chat. We appreciate you guys.

Make sure to hit that thumbs up and subscribe to the channel. But any final thoughts from you before we get out of here? No, I mean, football's on my screen on a Monday. So anytime that's the case, life is good. So yeah, if you had a bad week three or heck, you had a good week three, it can only get better tonight. So good luck to everybody. And it's not over. If you had a bad week three, you still got tonight.

It's only been a bad week so far. You get the money. What our boy title, my, my man right here with me last week was saying his hand. It wasn't the best week. There was a, you know, still a four or $90,000 hit and all these things. But I mean, those are, we just deal with those and let them roll off and go to the next thing. Does thirty $8,000 solve it?

No, but it makes it feel a hell of a lot better after how the rest of the weekend went. So, You're not guaranteed anything. So yeah, every day is a new day. You definitely take it and wipe the slate. So yeah, that's the game we play. If you don't want to see the swings, do not look at the DraftKings app until I guess you get the notification that the money was put in your account and then do it that way. If that's how you want to live.

Anyone who does that like you know they say like uh certain serial killers yeah the way you put the paper towel the toilet paper on is like the serial killer thing yeah if you're literally waiting because I think they they finally fixed it now where when they send you it's right now finally it says the real number yeah like it could say a dollar but one dollar you want a bunch. But anyway, I cannot imagine the world waking up and just being like, check that thing.

Even when I, if I do fall asleep, it's very rare. But if I did, I would, first of all, I got no Discord notifications. Thankful that we have that community there. So I know I didn't win, but I still go on the app and go recent and try and like the positivity flowing of like, at least some bars were to the right. I'm not trying to get no email that just says you, you got dog walked and screwed on this slate or something like that.

So yeah, Yeah. Crazy if people do it that way. I don't know about that, but I'm, you know, I don't look very often, but I look when it matters. I want to get some sweat equity for my money too. Yeah, no, I'm, I'm with you too. I probably look more than you, but it's also for I'm cash gamesCash GameA cash game is a contest that pays a large share of the field, usually close to half, the same flat prize. Fifty-fifties, double-ups and head-to-heads are the common cash games.Treat cash games as the steady base of your bankroll. Use one safe core across your cash entries on a slate, and save riskier ideas for tournaments.Full explanation ↗ when to swap that way. And yeah, I mean, I, I put in the money. I understand. You're seeing like what you're up against.

Like it's like, it's still a, even if it's not all head to heads, the point is it still really matters. It can be trains. It can be different. Like you've got to figure out what's in front of you, what's behind you and be able to adapt. But in like, I'm also humid though. We put in a lot of money with a chance to win a lot of money. Like the sweat equity is, it's fun.

It can drive you crazy, but I also know I'll get over it eventually, regardless of how bad it is. Life goes on. That's my mantra. I change it up from time to time title, but the new one is everything always works out. So far, it's all worked out. I've had so many bad beats as of every player. That's why the original sign still stays up because it's like no one cares. We get beat out for four $90,000 a couple of weeks ago.

Before that was me for $200,000 with a more cow eagle at the last second. Like things happen. For big money and we're playing the game at the highest level. So it's going to matter, but, and be worth a lot, but everything's always seemed to work out. Very grateful. We get to be here with you guys every day, almost every day during football season, but at least a few times a week, hang out, have fun, talk through it, interact, be in the community daily.

All that stuff is fun, but like, you never know. Maybe tonight didn't, you know, maybe that didn't work out because a Milly Maker's coming soon. And then like, that'll erase all of it. Like you just have, you just never know. And just got to be able to stay in the game and play it. We talk a ton about that. Not going to hit it harder now, but like the takedown breakdown, go watch it from earlier.

If you want, it's like, you just got to be able to stay in the game. You can't win a thousand bucks and decide like, well now three, three, three, three threes tonight. Sound like a good idea. Like, Just play it. I was praising our guy, Lukey, in case he doesn't watch that show earlier. Our man, Lukey, in the chat got himself a SaberSim Ultimate Package, right? Went down. He got the full Ultimate. It's not for everybody, but he got it.

Started working on it. Put the time in. Started shipping. I think I said, I honestly, I think he won like six to eight times the mini max in baseball, but people kept telling him like, oh, go play the five dollar man, move up and play one fifty in the five dollar. He's like, man, that's like a whole that's a whole mini max win that I'm putting on the line for one slate. He's like, it didn't he didn't need to change strategies yet.

If he's not comfortable, he was capable of just putting in the same money, winning a bunch, putting in the same money and then riding the ups and downs. But he's happy. He's doing what he loves. And if he wants to move up, he can. It's just a matter of like, you don't, some people win all the money. We've seen people win $100,000 on Sunday classic. And we're like, damn, buddy's in for thirty grand tonight in showdown. Like what?

You'll never be mad at yourself for staying where you're at or playing less than what you think you will. Ninety five percent of people underestimate the variance in DFS, especially with how top heavy it is nowadays. And once you start playing more than you're used to, it starts bleeding into your real life and your real mental and That's the last thing you want to do. So, yeah, shout out to Lukey. As disciplined as it gets.

And I mean, I'm blessed myself, but I prided myself on being one of the most disciplined for over a decade, literally almost never playing tournaments, only playing cash gamesCash GameA cash game is a contest that pays a large share of the field, usually close to half, the same flat prize. Fifty-fifties, double-ups and head-to-heads are the common cash games.Treat cash games as the steady base of your bankroll. Use one safe core across your cash entries on a slate, and save riskier ideas for tournaments.Full explanation ↗ because I knew what I wanted to do full time. I knew eight percent ROI could get me this. And I'm not guaranteed anything in tournaments. You can be the best in the world. Still have a losing year as FJ born and all that just shows the variance there.

So you need first place and it's hard to do so. Yeah. Yeah. We talked about that too. It's like, you don't control first place. People don't like, I know it's like, it sounds so bad coming from people. Like I've got a second and a third place trophy on the shelf. They were still awesome days, awesome outcomes, big money events that are fun. Like all that type of stuff throughout the years.

But it's like when you finish third or fifth in a tournament, you know, you're $10,000 the other week. Absolutely horrendous. It was my exact example. A couple of weeks before in golf, it was $200,000 to first. I get like $7,500 or something for what it was when we were away in Vegas. And so you just had your version of that. That's just our most recent version. It's not complaining. It's just noting that like there was nothing else we could do.

Like we literally did everything to put ourselves in a position to ship. And then we didn't. So while it doesn't feel, there's no trophy, there usually isn't anyway, but there's no big money that you care about enough. There's no big prize. You get almost nothing out of it except like a negative feeling in the way of like, damn, I was so close. But you really did put yourself in the top point, zero, zero, zero, zero, zero, one percent. And you didn't control the outcome.

It's like almost the same as winning without the win and the money and everything that comes with it. It's like, what else do you want me to do? And you don't get to control it, right? There's nothing you could have done about it. So that's all you can do. Focus on a little mental health at the end. We're not always adding that in, but I think it's a good idea to think about in a game we play. All right. It's going to do it, guys.

Appreciate you. You know, everybody in the chat, let us know in the comments if there's anything we're missing that you want more for these shows. We've got our next slate coming up on Thursday. Hoop will be back, I believe, and we're breaking down the Atlanta – or no, what is it? The Pittsburgh at the Cleveland game. I was going to say Atlanta's back. Oh, my gosh. All right. Is it worse or better, though, that your boy Aaron Rodgers is coming in?

I mean, my Packers got absolutely demolished, so nothing can be worse. And, yeah, I like my man Rodgers, but anyone that saw his Hail Mary before the end of half, if I pulled a rib, fell right then, I was like, it's time to hang it up, man. Now, he still put up the points.

He's getting the ball out there, but you never want to see one of the goats, like in any sport, just completely like they just play too long and just they ruin everything that people thought of him at. Like, please don't do that. Please have it be your last year. You have a good team around you. Get to the playoffs and then just quit. Yeah. Yeah, I agree on all that. It's really tough.

Not too many people like the Payton Manning, the Ray Lewis, the stuff like that get to ride off into the sunset. It's just, I mean, obviously it's nice. You win a Super Bowl and you get to just be done after that. It's not easy to accomplish that. But I'm saying when you just keep pressing it and pushing it, now it's always just him just blaming the coaches. And then yesterday was the lip read of like – He fucking sucks. What did you say?

Like that play called sucks or something? Effing sucks or – Something. I don't know. I just saw a brief. I didn't know if it was about his receiver that dropped it or the play. Yeah. I mean, Roger says it out. He sees it, but yeah, there's, there's a time and a place as a leader, as a quarterback and all that. And by no means do I agree with everything he says. So, Hey, that's life. Don't necessarily agree with this either. I appreciate your answer.

Your support's always good in the chats, but like, again, a lot of people forget this. We talked a little bit about this earlier. Most of the people that have all the DFS money you're, you're quoting the ones that are actually good, by the way, I'm talking about that are winning. There's lots of, business people that are in the five Ks and they just, they make money at other stuff. It's their fun money. They got it to blow.

People saw the $100,000 circa draft this year that posted up and like, Oh my God, I wish I had $100,000 to play in that. Look how bad the drafting is. Well, they don't care. They have a hundred grand to play on a football draft, but these players, most of the ones, like when people complain about mock loving and you to cow and guys like that, like, where do you think they got all the money?

They just they kept playing at the highest level and they took it from all the people that decide to go up in stakes and realize there's you know not the best chance when you win all the money at the poker table title kind of could just stay at that table and keep winning the money off these people. You don't just hop up and be like, all right, I got this buy-in now that I can take to the better table. Why? Right.

Like you just stay here and keep collecting the money. There's tons of cheese, free cheese sitting at the table that you're already at. So yeah. I mean, and people, yeah, the last thing, I mean, I don't know how many in the world, but there's definitely some of the biggest guys get staked to an extent, but if you can show someone that has money, that you're a good player and can make money.

How about you go do that yourself, work on your process, grind, and then find someone with money that you can pitch yourself and present yourself. I've never done it personally, but I do know people that have done it and shout out to them. That's smart. Happens all the time in the poker world. Just if you're under bankroll, that's smart. You're sticking within your bankroll managementBankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗.

De-risking a little bit, but still playing for a good amount because you proved that you were sharp in whatever way. There's a lot of ways to conquer life. There's no one way in everything. We could go forever. You and I love this kind of stuff, so we'll stop it there. I agree. People do use... It's not even like using the bank's money to finance stuff and move it around. Why are you using all your own money when you can use it?

If you do it accordingly, obviously I'm not saying take on a bunch of debt. It's how you take it on and what you do with it. It's things like that. People always do this stuff, so... All right, guys, we appreciate you. Thank you so much for watching. For Title, for myself, ToeTag, and Tambo, good luck in the contest tonight. Let's ship it!