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Shows / NFL/ Monday, September 14, 2026

Broncos vs Chiefs – MNF Showdown Shippers | NFL Week 1 | DFS Picks, Plays & Process

Aired Mon Sep 14, 2026 Hosts Mike Petta, Tyler Tamboline, & Zach Trivett Runtime 1:06:20 Chapters 16 Views 4,857

From the archive. This breakdown is for the Monday, September 14 NFL slate. Salaries, weather and picks were for that day.

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The Short Version

Mike Petta, Tyler Tamboline, and Zach Trivett break down Broncos–Chiefs with a concentrated captain pool led by Bo Nix, Kenneth Walker III, and Jaylen Waddle ($9,600 FanDuel). Rashee Rice draws both strongest-play enthusiasm and clear price-based skepticism. Nix benefits from Denver spreading targets around, while Walker offers the most stable backfield role. J.K. Dobbins supplies a low-owned captain alternative, though enthusiasm depends on expecting a slower, run-heavy game.

Pat Bryant ($3,200 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel) anchors the salary relief, especially on FanDuel, where pairing him with a less popular MVP can differentiate builds. Emmett Johnson is another cheap target, and Tyquan Thornton offers an ownership pivot from Bryant. RJ Harvey is an expensive contrarian option for Denver trailing scripts. Tight ends draw limited enthusiasm, while both kickers and defenses remain viable in lower-scoring builds, with Harrison Butker the preferred kicker.

Plays Mentioned

PlayCallThe TakeAt
CAPTAIN Preferred Denver captain because touchdowns can be distributed among numerous receivers; rushing upside is debated after his ankle injury. 11:36
CAPTAIN Called the slate's favorite captain for reception-driven upside; enthusiasm is sharply split elsewhere in the discussion. 14:25
CAPTAIN Included in the concentrated captain pool, with some overweight interest but concern that returning from injury limits rushing. 16:25
CAPTAIN One of the leading captain choices, with enthusiasm for Kansas City featuring its new lead back. 16:54
CAPTAIN A favorite captain for anticipated featured usage, although another view is comfortable being underweight because Denver spreads targets. 17:16
CAPTAIN Strong leverage captain at roughly 3.5% ownership, using his superior rushing projection to pivot from Waddle and Nix; another view avoids Denver running back captains. 18:00
LEVERAGE Limited, expensive contrarian exposure at $7,400, primarily when Kansas City leads and Denver needs receiving work. Not a preferred play; more appealing at $8,200 on FanDuel. 18:55
CAPTAIN A $10,500 captain consideration for larger portfolios and a different, balanced construction; other opinions are substantially less enthusiastic. 20:22
CORE Preferred quarterback in neutral flex decisions, but prioritize correlation: pair Waddle captain with Nix. His over 16.5 rushing yards also receives support. 21:15
Use with Rice captain when choosing only one quarterback; acceptable overall, with disagreement about rushing upside and offensive workload. 21:15
Split enthusiasm at $6,400: strongly preferred over Harvey for base rushing work and close or Denver-leading scripts, but the committee concerns another view. More appealing on FanDuel at $8,800. 24:19
VALUE At $2,600, target backup and passing-down work; at least double the projected 3.5% ownership is desired. A touchdown or productive two-minute drive could pay off the salary. 25:14
CORE The most stable running back in the game and a primary target, although backup involvement is expected. 26:47
CORE Preferred receiver in the run-heavy approach, with expectations of early featured targets; Denver's receiver rotation tempers another opinion. 31:29
Preferred in flex over captain, with single-play touchdown upside; receives support over the more expensive Rice and Kelce in one approach. 32:10
LEVERAGE Preferred ownership pivot from Bryant at $3,600, with roughly half the ownership and a receiving prop supporting the Chiefs' third-receiver role. 32:37
One-play upside at $3,000 and a possible returner/DST pairing, but limited expected playing time makes Bryant preferable. 33:00
Unmistakably split: an elite captain-and-flex priority versus the least appealing expensive receiver. His $11,400 FanDuel price is less attractive than his DraftKings setup. 33:21
Some inclusion on Mahomes captain teams at $4,000, but another view expects Thornton to hold the third-receiver role and sees Allen as a later-season option. 33:48
VALUE Too cheap at $3,200 on DraftKings and especially $2,400 on FanDuel. Expect substantial ownership; consider a less popular FanDuel MVP alongside him. 34:11
Included with Nix captains; paying extra can differentiate builds. His $10,200 FanDuel salary above Waddle is difficult to justify but creates an alternative construction. 34:11
Part of the Denver receiver mix for Nix captain constructions, although the absence of a receiving prop adds uncertainty. 36:27
Most appealing tight end, but opinions range from a viable early-season option to lukewarm at $7,000, with Worthy and Dobbins preferred for less salary. 43:32
Split between explicit dislike and a touchdown-dependent portfolio alternative to Thornton; no settled endorsement. 47:09
A $3,400 alternative to Denver's cheap receivers, mostly for quarterback captain builds; low confidence because Denver rarely features tight ends. 47:28
Preferred kicker and a planned inclusion, with overweight interest when building for a low-scoring game. 48:37
Included as a low-scoring-game option, with another view aiming for overweight or near-overweight exposure to both kickers and defenses. 49:00
Denver Broncos DST remains in the pool, with a slight preference over Kansas City and interest in pressure against a rookie left tackle; exposure strengthens in low-scoring builds. 49:00
Kansas City Chiefs DST remains playable, particularly in run-heavy, low-scoring builds where it can outscore similarly priced skill players. 49:46

DFS Terms Used on This Show

OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 9:16 ChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 9:16 ContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 18:55 CorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 21:15 GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 1:04:44

Full Transcript

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0:04

The steps go clear for lift off. What's up, everyone? Tyler Tamboline here, a.k.a. ToeTagginTambo, back for another edition of Showdown Shippers here on the Ship It Nation YouTube station. We've got a Monday night football game to talk about. We've got Denver at the Chiefs. We got hoop. We got title. Still got time in week one. If you didn't win money yet and you didn't get your bonus money from FanDuel yet, if that debacle.

0:54

Then you still got time to win a bunch of money tonight. We're going to be playing mostly on DraftKings, but we'll talk about FanDuel just who knows in which ways. But Hoopster, bring you in first, man. Coming off a crazy week one in the NFL, but we got another game. And you know I'm never in my homes except when we have to. And when he's on showdown, you don't have to play him, but that's the time I want to play him.

1:11

So what's going on, my friend? How you doing? Yeah, I mean, a fun start to the season for sure. I mean, the first main slate, besides the little FanDuel issue, if you're playing there, you probably ran into some issues. But overall, a good week one, you know, really high scoring. We talked about it on the show yesterday. We pulled it up and I think the number was one hundred and seventy nine was the winner week one last year.

1:35

Well, the winner last this year was much much higher than that we had some massive scores I mean multiple uh running back scoring three touchdowns some huge performances out of the wide receiver position some massive performances uh out of the quarterback position I mean some pretty big takeaways and you look at the the Bears for example like they said they wanted to break offensive records it looks like they're going for it I mean week one and You know, that's going to be a spot to attack moving forward against them because it looks like they're just not really all that concerned with defense.

2:05

They're just going to go to outscore teams moving forward. The Chargers thing was definitely pretty surprising. Them losing straight up to Arizona was wild. And I mean, really, it was never, I mean, they're down the entire game. I mean, Arizona was in control that game all the way through, I thought.

2:21

You know that was definitely uh interesting a lot of nuggets that I'm sure we'll touch on um you know now or in the upcoming shows but uh fun week one and then we get to end with a banger here the Chiefs Broncos uh which should be very fun for for DFS I'm excited to watch the game uh as well and the homes recovering quickly I mean when he had that injury a lot of people and that's the one thing for sure as well these these guys getting these injuries it would take a year to come back.

2:48

Well, now it seems like they're coming back much quicker. Almost everybody that we thought might miss, like Tucker Craft, Patrick Mahomes, there's a list of guys, they're all back for week one. So it looks like we're kind of turning the corner in terms of recovery on some of these longer-term injuries, which is obviously good for everyone and their health. But yeah, Chiefs, Broncos, excited, and I think we got a pretty good read on the situation tonight, so I'm excited for this one.

3:12

Yeah, that's good. I think they're all going to Germany to get the magic potion that you get there. You fix up the knee injuries, the ankle injuries. Obviously, Bo Nix having the injury last year too. Just a lot of different stuff going on. Title, how was your week one, my friend, and what's going on with you on this Monday? Yeah, I think I pretty much probably broke that even a little up on the main slate, lost on showdown. That even is good.

3:31

We take that for sure. I didn't see DraftKings pretty much subtweet FanDuel, but FanDuel did just release – finally say something yeah they just said something and then of course I just lost it but pretty much how they just made do with everyone that they'll have good contests for week two um let me go to fandom support I just had it up and then I saw I read the DraftKings one on Takedown Breakdown earlier. Yeah, DraftKings right here a minute ago.

3:58

To our DFS customers, we acknowledge that yesterday's site issue was unacceptable. NFL Week One is supposed to be a joyous time, and we fumbled. The team investigated the issue, now refunded the net losses to our impacted customers. We remain committed to offering you a better DFS experience and plenty of fun in store for Week Two and beyond.

4:15

That's great news because obviously a monopoly in any industry is not good I mean the prices or the prizes on FanDuel were still good like if they actually like had a site running so I'm glad they're not giving up they made it right with everyone I'll still be playing on the site um but yeah that's good that they at least acknowledge that but yeah crazy week one I mean survivor one of the chalkiest teams go down the Lions barely barely escaped that was sad Eagles in a close game Packers I mean One drive absolutely just destroyed them, and then they couldn't get anything going after that.

4:46

Jefferson's back. I mean, it was fun week one, and I'm excited for tonight. I like the Saints, man. I like the way they came back, the way they did their thing at the end, and then obviously going for it in OT on the road. Just got to do it. It seems so obvious, but to some people, they don't agree. But it's just, yeah, that's the right play. Make it happen. It doesn't work out. You move on to the next one.

5:03

Detroit escapes with a win, but they probably... A win's a win. Vin Diesel, inch or a mile, doesn't matter. Winning's winning. But that definitely gives you some scaries on week one. I got to say, too, real quick, before we just hop into this, guys, I want to jump over for Chivit Games. We had our first Three winners yesterday, so I want to announce this. First off, for members, the new link will be posted on Tuesdays. You've got to be in the Discord.

5:25

If you're an All Access or NFL-only member, it'll be posted in the Discord. We'll give a warning shot in the morning and then post it out in the afternoon. That way, the fastest way to get in, everybody can get in. But for yesterday, S-R-A-U-C-O, S-R-A-U-C-O.

5:38

Jcalhu seven I know you emailed us already but the s-r-a-u-c-o and then the last or

5:48

The third option was a skirbetz twenty nine s-k-e-r-b-e-t-z twenty nine if you guys are watching this and your members I know you're at least in the Discord you wouldn't be able to get in email us info at shipitnation.com with the screenshot of your win yesterday we've got a lot in store upcoming for this week because it will be the first share a ship and you've just found your way into the good one because DraftKings they put their contests out nice and early and let you know $555 milli maker kick things off this week so we'll know what it is we'll know which lineup it is we'll follow it along on the site the chance to add fifty percent of that to

6:22

The prize pool and really blow it up where everyone will be silly not to be a shiva nation member at that point when the shiva games prize pool is that big but Lots to talk about for this night. We did extend the early bird sale, so you guys can go check that out. Other than that, Hoop, let's get right to it, man. Give us your grand scheme overview. You said you got a good feel for this one. Broncos at the Chiefs.

6:42

Let me know what you're thinking. Yeah, so, I mean, you look at the game here, and let me just pull it up real fast. So the total is relatively low, I think, for what you'd expect out of this game, right around, what, forty-four? I just wanted to verify that. Forty-three and a half on DK. Yeah, forty-three and a half, so it's like...

7:04

Lower than I would have kind of anticipated I think for this game I mean I I kind of you know like the over a little bit I think there is a possibility for for some scoring I know that defenses can be uh both these defense can be solid but I I kind of like scoring to occur in this game and you know a lot of you know you look at the Broncos side of things one thing that I think about when I think of the Broncos I know they got jalen Waddle but man they just Mix in so many random wide receivers, and I think that's going to continue.

7:33

Yes, they got Waddle. They have Sutton. Pat Bryant looked like a freaking stud at the end of last season. I don't know if you guys remember, and they were just feeding him. I can't imagine that he's just not going to be involved. Troy Franklin was another guy that looked pretty good at the end of last season, and they still have Mims, who they're going to bring in for...

7:49

For random plays so when we get to talk about captain we can kind of get into how that uh plays into to what I'm thinking at captain position and then the the tight ends for the Broncos really weren't involved all that much last year and you know now they have more pass catchers to go to and they have a split running back situation there Dobbins and harvey On the Chiefs side, Travis Kelley, what are you going to get out of him at this point in his career?

8:13

That's kind of a big discussion. You got big play guys and Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy. And then this Allen guy is another one of the Cyrus Allen was another one of the best ball guys that kind of shot up at the end people. We're taking a lot of him. Same with their backup running back, Emmitt Johnson, another guy that shot up the best ball draft boards towards the end of the season, as well as it appeared that he could make the roster.

8:39

So there's a lot of different options here. But for me, you know, and we'll talk about more when we get to captain. I think it's a night where I kind of want to consolidate a little bit more and play a fewer number of captains. So we'll talk about when we get there. But either way, I mean, Broncos, Chiefs, it's going to be a fun one. Yeah. Title, I'll kick it over to you for the same.

8:59

Somebody in the chat was just asking about the promos. Just email us info at shipitnation.com. We'll get you hooked up, get you into the Discord, ready to roll with everything going on for the Ship It Games as well. Title, give us your, your thoughts just to add on to hoop there. He kind of broke down a lot, but we're going to go through captains, et cetera, but I'll let you start with your breakdown. Yeah.

9:16

There's five captains that are pretty much getting very similar OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. No one we have projected over at captain, but Bo Nix, Waddle, the two on the Broncos side and the Mahomes, Kenneth Walker, she rice. So, you know, I mean, Hey, you can play all five of the ChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ ones playing no one else and still get overweight or you can fade one or fade two and then mix in some of the lower own pieces. I think it's a solid showdown slate though.

9:41

Like the Broncos running back room, Harley and Dobbins, uh, You have to make a decision there if they're both eating into each other's ownership. Hoop touched on the Broncos wide receiver room with how many bodies they rotate in. Tight ends seem pretty bad, but they're cheap. On the Chiefs side, Emmitt Johnson came about. He's going to be relatively popular Oh, we have three percent. Well, I think it'll probably be a little higher than that.

10:04

But it's him and Pat Bryant is the clear value plays that people want to get to. Worthy, my man, Taequann Thornton, Cyrus Allen. So rotation at wide receiver three a little bit. Two kickers that can kick it. So I think it's kind of spread out, which I do like to see. So low total, only one player expected to score. Kenneth Walker, minus one twenty five. The next best, Rishi Rice, one fifty five. Then it gets close to the plus two hundred.

10:28

So. I'm excited to hear what you guys have to say. Yeah, I want to see how this all shakes out too because Pat Bryant there. Like Hoop said, obviously looked incredible there. I know Mims had a little bit of an injury but was full practice participant this week. So he's at $3,000, just two hundred bucks less. I think it's somewhat interesting. People can do the double dip tonight too if they want. The only kick returner as well as receiver. So maybe that's the thing.

10:51

But let's get into the captains, Hoop. You said there was a few that you were thinking about, maybe less captains tonight. I'll let you start on the captains, get it over to title. I'll finish it out and then we'll hop into position by position after that. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I think mostly showdowns so far this year, there's a pretty strong case to spread it out quite a bit. Man, it happens a lot.

11:10

Like, we see it now, especially with everyone using the optimizers and things like that and contest sims. It, like, just forces in spread exposure. It's going to get you a little bit of everything. It's going to mix and match things. And, you know, OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ just gets spread out quite a bit. I'm going to be tighter for sure at captain, and I'll just start on the Broncos side. I think like for me, it's Bo Nix for sure.

11:36

I do want some exposure to Bo Nix for the reason I kind of touched on at the beginning where it's like there is they're going to mix in all these wide receivers. And anytime there's a solid quarterback that has like a bunch of different guys you can throw it to, I think you can definitely make the case to play that guy in the captain spot. So on the Broncos side, he is for sure my favorite. The ownership on him.

11:58

We're showing like fourteen percent so it's nothing crazy I mean I think there's a pretty good chance tonight we see everything like fifteen percent and above at the captain spot because there's so many different options so many different guys you know people will mix in some defense captain as well so like Fifteen, sixteen percent in a blow blow for everyone. It makes it easy if you're making multiple teams to get way over the field on what you want.

12:21

So on the Broncos side, Bo Nix is by far my favorite. I'm not going to be in on like Dobbins or Harley splitting, splitting carries Waddle. I'm fine with him. Like I'd keep him in the pool, but I'm not thrilled. Like I'd be fine if I was like underweight on Waddle, same for Sutton. And I just don't want like Evan Ingram or anyone else. So really, I mean, the only captain I really like on the Denver Broncos side is for sure Bo Nix.

12:49

And then if I had to pick a second, it would be Waddle, but I'm not overly excited with Waddle. I think he's great. I think he's a great player, but I just have a feeling. A lot of these other guys are going to get mixed in. They're not going to just fully go away from Pat Bryant. I want to go the title route and give him some sick comparison, but I'm not going to go that path.

13:13

He was legit, though, at the end of last season there, feeding his ass. I think he got hurt towards the end of the year and it was over. But he looked solid, too. So I do like him. Not captain, but just a reason to temper the expectations, at least for me, on Jalen Waddell. On the Chiefs side, you know, you always say, you know, never Mahomes, but you put the disclaimer in there that when we're talking small slates and showdown, it's a little different.

13:36

You're just talking main slate, and we've gotten to that point, and everyone accepts that. I do like him a little bit in the captain, but not a ton. I mean, the reason he was becoming a better just overall fantasy player last year was he's running a lot more offensively. With this injury, I just can't imagine he's going to be looking to run all that much. I think he's going to want to, you know, sit back and throw more.

13:57

So fine with him and the captain don't love him. I think chemist, Kenneth Walker is definitely fine. Uh, we have a map. He's right there in that, right. There's a bunch of these guys that are like, um, I'm good with Kenneth Walker. Um, I do think these other guys get used though. Like that, that Emmett Johnson guy, like there's a lot of hype around him.

14:17

And I believe, uh, smith they kept as well on the roster another guy that a lot of people uh

14:25

Had let me see what's um so I see what the project so I mean smith has a projection as well so I think these guys will get mixed in walker's fine but I mean by far my favorite guy though on the Chiefs is it's rishi rice for sure and I hope the ownership stays where it is we have it at like fourteen percent like he's the you know by far my favorite captain on the slate like when when he's healthy and Mahomes is healthy they have just one of those connections that's just so elite he's a guy that can get there just just on receptions eight to nine catches for a hundred yards like might not even need to get into the box I think Rice is just an absolute

15:02

Smash play today absolutely love him I know it Broncos have some good cornerbacks. I'm not really worried about that. Rashee Rice is super legit. They'll move him around, too, to different areas. Worthy, you know, maybe fine with him and the captain a little bit, but I'm not messing with, like, Kelley up there. So, really, I mean, for me, captain, three main guys, maybe four. I'll say three. Bo Nix. Rashee Rice, Kenneth Walker, and I'd be fine with Mahomes.

15:28

And again, if you only play three or four, you can easily get way overweight on them. And I think tonight is definitely a night for me where I'm going to keep it condensed at the captain's spot. Yeah, one thing you said there, I think, is like Rashee Rice. They definitely do move him around. He moves around a lot. He goes in the field. He goes to jail. They move him out of jail. He goes to the hospital, get a little knee surgery.

15:50

They move him back to jail. He gets to go back there and then finish out his thirty day sentence. But all that matters is what he does on the field. So definitely think that the offseason toughened him up. He's ready for anything. Look at Scott Scheffler, man. He spent, you know, one day in there, one morning, came back out and shot like a sixty five. So, you know, sometimes you just got to get put in your place for a little bit.

16:08

But I think at the end of the day, speaking of field, you know, not just how the field's handling him. It looks like he said everything's sort of being kept in check there. There's still love for Kenneth Walker. There's still love for Mahomes. But you said it. It's always my disclaimer on Mahomes. I think he'll be I don't even know how it'll play out. Like I'll let title give us thoughts, but like Bo Nix.

16:25

Walker rice I mean some like all those guys for sure Waddle so it's like somewhere Mahomes is in that mix of those top five yes but I just don't know exactly where it will be and I'm comfortable um getting an overweight stance even with him because it's when you've got rice Worthy Thornton all these other options kelsey well he's early in the season and still healthy right now we'll see how that goes for him as it goes on but title give us your thoughts in the captain position Yeah, I think kind of said it from the beginning, I'm probably going to play the main guys that are getting the ownership and then J.K.

16:54

Dobbins. My favorite two are just the two new additions, Kenneth Walker on the Chiefs, Jalen Waddell on the Broncos. I think they want to showcase their big additions. Casey just pounded the football with Kenneth Walker, set up play action. It's been a little bit since Mahomes has been able to just turn around and hand it off twenty five times confidently. And that's what they finally have this year. And I do think Andy Reid does that.

17:16

And then on the Broncos side, yeah, Jalen Waddell's their new toy. And I expect them to try and get up the ball early and often. Outside of those two, it is J.K. Dobbins for me. Yeah, for the best ball people out there, you know, like R.J. Harvey was going ahead of J.K. I think that's just a lot of hoping the second half of the year that Harley takes over. Because, I mean, the props right now, J.K.

17:37

Dobbins, fifty and a half rushing prop on the ground. Seventeen and a half for RJ Harley. It just shows really clear that the base work they think is going to be Dobbins. Harvey more pass catching, more third down stuff. And J.K. Dobbins is cheaper and still only showing about three percent at captain. And then when you play Dobbins at captain, it leverages off some Waddle, some Bo Nix captain there as well.

18:00

So I think Dobbins is really strong at what we're showing, three and a half percent. I'm going Waddle. I'm going Kenneth Walker, the new toys. And then from there, it's probably Bo Nix, Mahomes. The nice thing about them is they spread it out a good bit. They can throw three touchdowns at three different people. Not sure about the legs on both guys coming off of leg injuries, like how much they're going to rush in this one, but they spread it out enough.

18:23

Yeah, Dobbins, Waddle, and Kenneth Walker, my three favorites. And do you think for building too, I was going to ask you this, but it's more of a flex when we get there, I guess, but it is kind of up top. It makes sense with Dobbins because you're going with the props and also how that game's playing out.

18:37

But if you are going to play those builds with, say, Mahomes up top, then maybe you want to have a Harley where even though the ownership's kind of the same, it's like maybe they're up ahead and they've got to check it down. He's slated for three catches, seventeen yards, give or take, depending on where you look for props. So it's kind of that process, but that's not very much when you've got to pay...

18:55

You know eleven point $1,000 up top and $7,400 in the flex for rj harvey so it definitely is interesting from that perspective as well yeah it's rj harvey's a clear like pay up to be ContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ option and then you hope Dobbins maybe it's like his ownership sunk because in game scripts that harvey does well it's probably not bobbins I don't know it's it's pretty tough for me to get to harvey and I am we play a lot of teams so I'm gonna have some but in those teams he's the reason I'm getting different it's uh he's clearly overpriced for his props I like Jake to take back with us.

19:26

I'm with you on that one. And Hoop, the Buffalo fans are already coming for you in the chat. They can't wait for Thursday. It's Detroit at Buffalo. Lions are going to get fucking destroyed. Sorry to cuss right out of the gate with the strong swear word, but they're going to get spanked, man. What did I see the other day? I was doing my calendar up. It's like, I think Kansas City's got three games or two games. Like they really made it.

19:50

So like they feature teams, however they did it this season. So I'm like the Rams are, I've already been up. They're coming up next Monday.

19:57

Uh, Detroit or sorry I think it's like Buffalo is on there twice Kansas City's coming up again next Sunday Detroit's later in the month on Sunday they put all the kind of same team Dallas coming up again at the end of the month they just keep putting the same teams for these um island games so you'll you'll get used to these and we'll find some of this stuff as well but um I don't have too much else to add I don't think like I feel like pretty much in the same place you guys are I think that I guess I'll say it this way.

20:22

The five captains that we talked about do feel like the more correct captains. When I'm getting loose tonight in the portfolio play, it'll be with more like Kelley, I think, because like I say, earlier in the season at a fair price, $10,500, I could go there. I also think there's something to be said for like...

20:38

Dependent on how you want to build but maybe someone mentioned in the chat earlier like the kicker captain this could this can be two defenses that just show up and you could just see them get to half a lot and then those four pointers five pointers start to rack up they're worth more than passing touchdowns in some cases so it's just like uh one of those games I think that could be the case as well it's tough to see but Lower total.

20:59

Could see it happening. Hoop, I'll go back to you. Anything else you want to add at the quarterback position as a whole? You mentioned Mahomes. Maybe not running as much. Obviously, he was starting to a bunch last year. You'd expect just coming off that, what do they say? It's like two hundred and seventy four days, you know, for coming off that surgery and then coming to play.

21:15

So give us any more thoughts you have at the quarterback position and then flex and how you're thinking about it. Yeah, I mean, I think I definitely prefer Bo Nix over Mahomes up top and in the flex spot. Like if you're deciding, obviously, CorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Full explanation ↗ is above everything else. So, I mean, if you have like Rishi Rice captain team and you're deciding which quarterback to use, obviously use Mahomes if you're only playing one.

21:38

If you have a Waddle captain team and you're deciding between Mahomes and Mahomes, Bo Nix and the Flex, and you're only playing one, obviously make sure it's Bo Nix. But if in a neutral situation between the two, I just think I prefer Bo Nix tonight. I think he can do a little bit more on the ground. And I just expect, you know, Denver's offense to maybe flow a little bit better.

21:58

Not necessarily saying Denver wins the game, but I just like the offense a little bit better at this point. So definitely I would say I'd lean Bo Nix over Patrick Mahomes if deciding between those two. Yeah, what do you think, Title, on the Bo Nix? So I guess I will say this as one more, because we're going to quarterback. I know we already talked through captain, but just noting this is last night, Dart succeeded heavily at the captain.

22:24

A lot of runs for him, different factors that they set up for him in his favor, but designed runs was what I was trying to think of. And then you had Dak on the other side, who's obviously a bit more standstill. He'll run, you know, fifteen, twenty yards on the ground here and there. But it's kind of like it's not what you're going to expect from a guy like Dart.

22:41

Do you think that factors in at all where people just assume like Knicks is the... If they're going to pick one tonight, it's going to be Knicks because of the fact that he kind of moves around a little bit more and can do that. But then also, you know, just the comments in camp and stuff like that. People talking about... I just saw two hours ago, it says... Pat Sertain says, Bo's back looking better than ever. I see it every day at practice.

23:01

He's truly about to take off this season. And we're all, again, he's biased. That's his guy. But from the Mahomes injury situation and seeing Dak fail last night, I think a lot of people are going to think more, let's just get Knicks if we're only picking one quarterback in our lineup, up top or in the flex. I have it pretty much how we have it, and that is the exact same at Flex. And, I mean, we have one percent different at Captain.

23:24

I do think it comes in pretty much the same. Because, I mean, Bo Nix had his right ankle fracture as well. Both guys coming off the injury. I don't expect either to really try and run, I think. I think that both coaches are going to try and slam the football, that it's going to play to the under. They're going to play their defense, set up play action.

23:41

When we get to running back and then talk receiver, like I like these running backs, the backup running backs, I think are in play. And I don't think they're going to try and put it on either quarterback too, too much to start the season unless they have to. Yeah, I think that could be the case as well. Anything else on my home side of things or anything else you want to add there? No, I'm fine with the quarterbacks, but I'm not in love with it.

24:02

I like Waddle, I like Kenneth, and I like Dobbins more in a vacuum at OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. Keep that thought rolling, then we're going to take it right into running back. So you just mentioned those guys. What else are your thoughts here at the running back position tonight? And then thinking about from a build perspective, like even that example we talked about earlier, where it's like Dobbins more...

24:19

You know, run it, like you said, down their throat, hope that that works, gain that yardage quickly versus, you know, RJ Harley needing to catch those passes to sort of rack them up in a full PPR site, especially like DraftKings, which favorable today for most, I'm sure. But there's bonus money out there now. So who knows? That is true. Yeah, I think when you think the game's close to the Broncos lead, I think Dobbins is just the better play for $1,000 less.

24:41

The props agree with him. He'll be on the field more.

24:44

But to be ContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗, in lineups that the Chiefs jump up, twenty one nothing or something like that in Mahomes captain teams or rice captain teams are Worthy or maybe something where rj harvey maybe you just do just want to go all the way up top with him and he gets some garbage time not my favorite way to approach it but uh yeah he's showing less than twenty percent and is a big play guy so on the other side though again I like Dobbins I keep saying it I can't say it anymore I like kenneth I don't need to say that anymore.

25:14

But Emma Johnson is definitely the one. And I said, I guess from the top, when I saw we had three and a half percent, maybe that is what he's going to be. I sure hope so, because I at least want to be double the field on him. He flew up best ball drafts as well. He took the number two job in Kansas City. He was fighting with a couple people. The coaches love him. He's athletic. He can get up field. He can catch the football.

25:37

He's only $2,600. And like we saw with McCaffrey, I do think early on in the season, I mean, we saw Chubb, Jonathan Brooks a little bit. Not as much with Gibbs, but I don't think these teams are going to run their bell cow out. Ninety plus percent of snaps unless the opportunity or the situation is unique. And I don't think it's the case here. I think Johnson going to be involved in passing down situations. He's $2,600.

26:02

Andy Reid can get cute with plays one touchdown and he's pretty much sitting in the optimal. So I I like all running backs in this one, really, except R.J. Harvey. The best is like the Broncos just keep reading about this stuff. I love looking at these little nuggets and tidbits on what they talk about. It's like everything about Dobbins is positive, but it's almost like always with a caveat of like, well, he's healthy when he's healthy. Cause it's like, they're suspecting the injury.

26:25

He's just going to happen. Right. They're already talking about Jonah Coleman. If Dobbins isn't healthy and it's like the immediate thought for them. So it's interesting from that perspective, whoop. Anything you want to add here at the running back? I'm curious mostly about thoughts on Kenneth Walker III and then your breakdown of sort of what title went through with the Dobbins versus Harley stuff on the other side. Yeah, I mean, really, like, Kenneth Walker, obviously, it's not like a hot take or anything.

26:47

I mean, you know, by far the most stable running back play in this game. I mean, you have a split on the other side, and then you have a third guy that everyone's talking about in Coleman. Oh, our guy's back, Yogi Trice. Yeah. Got that ticket, boys. Going to the finals. Did he win the Ship It Games ticket? Oh, really? Is that what it is? Is it Ship It Games? Is it the World Championship? Give us a little clarification on that.

27:15

We'd appreciate it. But, yeah, obviously fine with Dobbins. I mean, great play in basically all formats. I'm not as excited about the Denver stuff. You have a split and then a third guy that got a lot of talk in preseason and training camp in Coleman. So you got Dobbins, you got Harley, and then potentially Coleman as well. It's like just, man, how much? Is there enough to go around? I don't know. I think they're better plays if you think this is a low-scoring game.

27:43

Like if you think this is a grinded out – under sort of game where the final score is like twenty to fourteen or something, then, yeah, maybe these guys are better plays. I kind of think we get some points here. So I'm just not as interested in like Dobbins, Harley, all that much. I mean, it's still $6,400 for Dobbins. So you got to do you got to do something at the what do you get? Oh, yeah. The big boy. Let's go.

28:13

So that's amazing, man. Man, those dollar ninety nine tips are on the rise. Now everyone's going to ask me what I'm doing every time I leave. Yeah, that's that is some good mojo to set on a Sunday morning. You know, you get the dollar ninety nine tip. You did it twice. Right. And then takes down the takes down the seat. So, yeah, congratulations on that. That's huge. Emma Johnson, I do want to mix it, though. I mean, yeah. You know, he's a guy at that price tag.

28:39

If he gets a two minute drive at the end of the half, like you can pay everything off at that point. So in on him and then, you know, maybe some some Smith a little bit. I'm not I'm not going to exclude any of these guys. That's for sure. I'm going to keep him in the player pool, but not overly excited. I mean, I'm definitely more interested in the Casey guys and the Denver guys. Yeah.

29:00

I was just going to say, I think it's a cash Yobi. I see over there. That's very nice. So yeah. Congrats on the seed. Also I saw earlier. Oh my gosh. Look at, look at them. You don't got to do that, man. No. Yeah. That's very nice. You don't need to. Yeah. Yeah. Appreciate that. I was also going to say this. I know the chat wished him. Somebody here got him already. But John, happy birthday.

29:20

Says, took the day off to celebrate my fortieth birthday. Told the wife I wanted to catch the boys break down Monday Night Football live. And that's that's awesome, man. So happy birthday. Happy birthday to you. Birthday. Some more comments and lots of talk on Walker as the primary captain all over. Can see Broncos focus on stopping the run. Then maybe Mahomes need to throw. I mean, we'll see how it actually shakes out. If that's the case, just build your teams like that.

29:43

If that's your read on the situation, build your teams accordingly. A hundred percent. So yeah, I think that's, um, that's the main thoughts there. I don't have too much else to add on that one. I definitely was leaning the way title was on the Broncos side and then how I'm building is accordingly to that. And then on the other side, like you said, it's like the Walker stuff.

30:02

If he does keep picking up the steam as it seems, he will, like I said earlier, I'm already higher on the homes anyway. So I think we're in good shape here going into the wide receiver position.

30:10

Now this title is where it gets, uh, little bit tricky like we know who talked about liking rice you know we know about the wattle stuff I think it was our guy Tyler earlier said you know peyton said pre-season he wanted to use wattle like he did michael Thomas only problem is wattle can't stay on the field for more though yeah talk about that crystal lave no wonder buddy got the guardian cap on and I heard the comments after he's like our kids now I want to live longer I want to think about that stuff I don't care what I look like but every time I literally think he went four times to the medical yeah yesterday Three or four.

30:39

Definitely at least three, though. No exaggeration. But anyway, congrats to him for a good game. But title wide receiver. I'm just looking even at so I don't see any Franklin props. It seems like they don't have any love for him. But you do have like Mims. Troutman, Waddle, Harley, Ingram. They're giving everybody something on those props for these wide receivers, so it's going to be a bit of a crapshoot. That's just the Detroit side, and then no secret on the Chiefs side.

31:05

They like to move it around some, and you get Noah Gray. We'll get to all these guys later, but Tyson Thornton, almost twenty yards on the prop. Xavier Worthy, almost forty. Rashee Rice, just over fifty. Kelsey, over forty when we get there. What's your thoughts here on these wide receiver rooms? Yeah, again, I don't love the wide receivers relative to running backs. I think both teams are going to run the football more, and I prefer to play them.

31:29

But when we are talking receivers, yeah, Waddle my favorite. Again, the new toy, that's where I'm going. And because I like Kenneth, because I like the quarterbacks a bit, I think that just naturally leaves me with the least amount of interest in Rashee Rice.

31:42

At cost and I feel fine with that I mean again videos on Twitter and all this don't mean much but I cannot get him running a post route uh out of jail on uh from jail to the practice field to running in like slow motion and that is all I need to see to be fine with that when he's in the price range of other guys that I like so could definitely burn me uh I'd rather play Xavier Worthy as you guys probably know for cheaper sean asked about Worthy at captain I Yeah, I mean, it's never bad.

32:10

He has a huge, huge upside. But again, there's others I like today, plenty more, which is why I didn't mention them. I prefer Worthy at the flex. And then Tyquan Thornton, like he's the one that stood out to me. Yeah, like you said, a real prop at twenty and a half. All this talk on Cyrus Allen, maybe later in the year, but I think it is going to be Thornton as a wide receiver three.

32:30

It's kind of reminds me of the Matt Collins, Tyler Williams situation for the Pats, where Thornton has a prop, Tyler Williams didn't.

32:37

Thornton has a prop Cyrus Allen doesn't Hollins had a prop Tyler Williams didn't and it just feels like he is going to be on the field more when he is on the field I'm always a fan like the dude just makes plays he's long he's fast Mahomes will find anybody that's open and he's cheap you look at Pat Bryant right in that same range looking at double the OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ as Thornton so I think he's a solid pivots Yeah.

33:00

Like Martin Mims, he can always get there in a play, but he's not going to be out there as much. So I would prefer Pat Bryant on that side. It's Copeland Sutton. You're overspending to get a little different, indifferent to it. Mainly Thornton Worthy Waddle in the flex, but I like receivers and I like the running backs more. I think this game plays slower. Yeah. Hoop. I'll let you add to that.

33:21

Cause there's a lot of the same for me in there, but what, what are you thinking of the wide receiver position today? So kind of already touched on Rishi Rice, just my, you know, probably definitely one of my favorite plays on the slate, Captain Flex, everything. I mean, I think he is just an absolute stud. When Mahomes is healthy and he's healthy, they just have one of the best connections in football, move him around and all that stuff. So I think Rice is an amazing play.

33:48

Xavier Worthy. One of those guys, just one play. I mean, fifty, sixty yard touchdown upside. They're going to take at least one or two shots with it. Does he catch it? Does he not agree with the Thornton stuff? I'm good with him at thirty six and I'll include Cyrus Allen in there more so on my home's captain teams. It's not like he has a full punt price. It's.

34:11

Uh where's he at he's four $4,000 so it's like yeah gotta kind of do a little bit of something there so um like all those guys definitely rishi rice I think is absolutely stud and then on the Denver side I'm playing a lot of uh beau nick's captain team so if that's the case I'm gonna play all these Denver guys um Waddle Sutton um you know pat Bryant just too cheap is getting some ownership for sure there's no doubt about it I mean people You know, he's another guy that had good talk in the offseason that he's still going to be involved, blah, blah, blah, all that.

34:41

So that's why we're seeing ownership on him when the price is only thirty two. But I still like him. Marvin Mims is a one play sort of guy on Fort. Was it Martin Mims that took that seat away from you or I was little Jordan, right? Little Jordan. Why do you think it was Mims? That you brought that up. Cause we just talked about it. We didn't talk about that, but I'm going to add to cut you off.

35:02

But Frankie born for FJ born is who took that seat for me. I've told the story before. And it's like, he, he would hit me up after he's like, you know, it is, we both know it is what it is. Like this happens. Yeah. That's the game. And anyway, it was awesome that he reached out and like, we chatted back and forth on that. So he won the mega Milly yesterday with Jefferson at the end.

35:20

I don't know if it was because the Raiders went down a little bit. He won by point two, four, or if it was Jefferson that got them all the way there at the last of it. But anyway, he won the mega yesterday. He just posted a GIF of Tupac smoking a cigar, which everyone who knows him knows what just happened. Cause they follow him for that reason. So he, he won. It was like that. He didn't even post a screenshot. He posts the followup screenshot.

35:42

It said not this time, Satan. And it is the million dollar downswing over the last two years of like down seven $50,000 up to $50,000 down another $500,000 up to $50,000 down again and then bang. And he ended up being up to $50,000 after the last two years.

36:00

Of he said all play like he put it in there so just crazy um the sweats and swings and everything that's why when someone's like oh they got you for this it's like you don't know what other people are going through what that means to them or this that and the other so it's important to kind of it's why it's fun to follow along with the community you kind of know what's going on with everybody connect with them and that but not everybody posts that stuff out there so anyway congrats to frankie but that was just a cool story and now you brought that up yeah that was that was what it was little Jordan Humphrey yeah a little Jordan I don't know why

36:27

Mims popped in my head I should obviously know it was little Jordan Yeah, but I'm playing all these pass catchers, I guess, because I'm playing quarterback captains, specifically Bo Nix captains. I guess after Rice, I'd probably lean the Denver guys just because I'm going to have more Bo Nix up top than I will Mahomes. But we have some solid options here for sure.

36:50

Yeah like I don't know this is like a every year thing that we deal with yeah I know that's the guy I mean sure okay but guess what they're gonna show down though man like it just doesn't matter they move guys around like it just does not matter like if he shuts them down he shuts them down sometimes they'll avoid it whenever but I got like they're talking about getting rice involved in a bunch of different ways this guy could be getting you know end arounds and stuff you have no idea so like the point is especially in showdown let other people avoid situations like that because of matchups or this that and the other you can you can get there in other ways

37:22

Um anything else title from you if not we can keep it moving no nothing I've just a Jefferson's the freaking man there's no doubt about that lsu nick's got the jokes how fitting was it the first pass from Kyler Murray that was intercepted Yeah. What an amazing start. How happy is Jefferson? He gets Wentz in there. He's like, yes, this guy can actually see me and we get it done, baby. Anyone but nine. Yeah, they got a tough situation over there.

37:53

Yeah. This is, I did see this Axtron. I posted about this, took out Henry for HN. It's a, it's a bad late swap for sure, but you still got some cash and you know, you, you made the decision for a reason. And I'm saying in a good way is like, if you have a process and you, you said like, this is why I'm moving it. Good. If you listen to somebody else say, no, don't play this guy, play this guy instead.

38:15

That's when it gets a little bit tricky because you kind of want to make sure you're following your own optionality and process that you can rely on in the future. And that's what we try and teach over at Ship of Nations. Yeah, that was a tough one. That was a tough one yesterday with HN. It killed me too. I had actually a really good day on DK. I had that Lions game stacked up, all the pieces, valet, everything in there, every part, Amon Ra.

38:37

Going into the four pm games I just needed something decent from a-chan and I'm sitting pretty and then he does nothing still had a good day maybe four x or something my buy-ins which is nice but like man it's like it makes it even worse when you're looking around that running back board and every other guy just went off like three touchdowns here three touchdowns everyone but a-chan and Hampton you play any anyone else is a spender b-john gibbs jt anything yes yeah Yeah.

39:05

We were over a lot of stuff yesterday, I think. I mean, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, like Coker. And, man, everyone that played Caleb played a receiver, and it had to be with Swift. So that was the reason you didn't see those teams up there as much. That is wild, though. His numbers, Caleb's, and none of those guys do anything. Like, none of them do anything. Loveland with the goose egg is one of the most crazy things. Yeah.

39:26

Oh, that was us tilting in the Discord, and people are like, I can't believe I played Loveland. I'm like, what? It's like we played a game before it locks. If I told you that Chicago is scoring fifty-plus points, you don't want it. You have a hundred percent. He ran all the routes. Komet got the touchdown. Loveland also had two times he was targeted, I think, in the end zone.

39:43

The ball got tapped down before, and I think the other one got picked or something. Or like... And I forget what happened. But anyway, my point being, it's we got to live with those things and move on. There is some thoughts around it. Like you said, not a lot of people stack Caleb with Swift. Why not? You can't. But it's like things like that that you got to think about. Ja'Marr Chase hurt people's feelings for sure.

40:03

But if you're not, what we say, if you're not playing Ja'Marr Chase and you think that the Bengals are putting up thirty points almost, which is what it kind of was slated twenty seven and a half or something, then you got to think about what does that mean for the Bengals? Well, you could have played Chase Brown. You could have played the defense that goes against it. The defensive touchdowns just kill so much in games like that.

40:20

And you got Baker, who, what, did he fumble three times? But, I mean, how bad are the Dolphins, though? Ooh, it's going to be a long season for them boys. What about the Browns? Browns and Dolphins. Oh, man. And, man, as bad as people thought the Cardinals would be, when you have Randy Moss Jr. And one of the best tight ends, you're going to move the football. And that's what they do. Yeah, that's interesting. They just have offensive pieces.

40:47

I was just saying, I was talking about the same game, so I was running off it, but the Chargers didn't. McConkie was moving all around and doing his thing before the injury, sure, and I had him, and I liked that, but it was like nothing they did wowed me that was like, oh, man, this new offense looks incredible. I think the dude's a fraud. I mean, there's McDaniel. I mean, he's got to be at this point. He's just not... I don't know.

41:11

I think it's just more of the visual of him gets people excited than the actual product itself is he does his, he just sucks. These young guys, man, that just roll in and just get all that money and then bail. What's Cliff, the other guy that was with them before? Cliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury, yeah. But he's always with like the hottest models, just hanging out, doing whatever he wants. I think he like three teams or like two teams owe him twenty mil a piece.

41:36

And he just collects that cash as he moves on. I said it before, like you just got to get that job and you're set, man. You can do whatever he wants. You still can like claim to fame. I can fix your stuff. Good salesman. Very good salesman. It's crazy. In the NFL, it's like you get in. It's just the retread of the coaching cycle. You're guaranteed to get another opportunity, another opportunity. Maybe this McDaniel guy just sucks. Can we say that?

41:59

Can we say Matt LaFleur sucks finally? Are people finally over this guy? Who is good, though? That's the question. McVay? Give me Ben Johnson. Give me Sean McVay. Give me Andy Reid. Give me Mike. We're talking young guys. So, yeah, Andy Reid. McDonald on the Seahawks. The Seahawks guy is very legit. I mean, it's easier, obviously, when the teams are good. But it's like, are they good? I mean, they weren't always good. Yeah, they weren't always good. Yeah, he looks like he made them good.

42:24

I got Ben Johnson and him. Yeah, if we're putting it up and fighting, I'm taking those two. Kevin O'Connell. Yeah, he's solid too. Shanahan, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, Shanahan for sure. That one's solved, but he also has a – he's literally from the – Shanahan from the Shanahan tree. Most people are from the Shanahan tree. He's literally born on that tree. That kind of helps to be around it your whole life too. It's not even anything else. He does his own stuff.

42:47

I'm just saying it's like it's cool when that's your dad and you can bring the same flame and the fire to it. I love that about certain situations. Yeah. All right, what else do we got? Tight end here, title, you want to go first? Kick it over to that. I talked about Kelley bringing the beach bod, but he's still early in the season. He's ready to go. He's got him and Taylor Swift in the offseason, everything going on there.

43:08

But I think from a perspective of being able to use him, looks very, I was going to say Worthy, no pun intended, because we've got X Worthy, but you can play them both. But I think Travis Kelley is a good candidate tonight as well. Yeah, I mean, I guess is he in the kind of Mark Andrews? He didn't look lost, but definitely a little lost to stop. Hawkinson looked good to me. Goedert looked fine. Like what point of his career? He's $7,000.

43:32

I'd prefer Worthy for four hundred less who's less owned and you can leave the money. So I know that I prefer Dobbins for six hundred less. I'm worried that Kelley might have lost a step a little bit, but it's mainly how I just think the game goes. So I'm fine with Kelley. He's my favorite tight end of either team, but that's not saying much. The Broncos aren't known to use their tight ends much. Ingram's fine. He's still showing some OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. I don't like Noah Gray.

43:58

I don't like any other backup on the Broncos. Kelsey, fine. I don't love it, really. I don't love Ingram. I don't like the tight end room today. Man, I didn't even know this. This is bad. People, if they care, I don't care. I don't follow for these reasons. I focus on DFS and playing the game, but I just had to look this up. Andrew Martinez, where was it? Oh, yeah. Clingsbury has a Super Bowl ring. Did you guys know this? Fun fact of the day.

44:24

No, I didn't. Okay, how would he get it? That's why I had to look this shit up. Earned a Super Bowl ring as a player with the Patriots after they won the Super Bowl in $2,000 and three. He was drafted by the Patriots in the sixth round and spent that season on the team's practice squad before being waived later in twenty twenty four. He famously used to show his ring to prospective draft prospects and recruits during his time as a head coach.

44:52

That's funny. That's what I'm saying, man. This guy, he knows how to get it done. Jeez, that's amazing. Where were we at? Yeah, Axtron said thanks to Tambo. I got in on a satellite ticket and came away with almost $10,000. So that, you know, that's the way to do it. Definitely. And it sucks that the swap. Didn't work out in your favor. Another one, this is good too. We don't even like, I'm not shitting on the competitor.

45:11

I think it's hilarious, but this is why the prices are up at Stochastic, man. They're able to buy ad space on the other sites, YouTube channels. So it's like, you know, they got the cash over at Stochastic. That's the thing, but you got to pay up to get their product. So we try and keep it nice and affordable, the most valuable content at the most affordable price.

45:30

And just all jokes, no super shots here, but just noting, That's where the forty $5,000 Ship It Games money at Stochastic that doesn't exist is going. It's going into ad buying ads on other competitors stuff to get your attention. So you want to deal with the real ones, the authentic, the genuine. This is the spot to be. We appreciate you. And thanks to Stochastic for always taking care of everybody. That's awesome. All right. Whoop, your thoughts at tight end. Pretty much the same.

45:55

I mean, we've seen a lot of these showdown sites. Tight ends look pretty loaded and pretty solid. This one. One of the worst tight end rooms in the – These two teams combined. I mean, you've got Travis Kelley who, yes, but what does he have at this point and how in shape or whatnot is he? A lot of talk about retirement before he signed back on.

46:21

Denver doesn't really use their tight ends all that much, and they have more guys at wide receiver, even more than they had last year, and they weren't using the tight ends last year. So just really tough to know. What you're going to get. I mean, I guess I would say with basically all these guys, like all better suited for quarterback captain teams, like low scoring quarterback captain sort of teams where, you know, one touchdown could be enough or something. So don't love tight end at all.

46:47

Kelsey, you know, the clear play here, but not inspiring stuff whatsoever. Yeah, it's interesting because you're just going to be funneling those guys in when you're playing them or in your portfolio and that sort of thing. It's just going to be a matter of like, you know, Noah Gray instead of Thornton. And if he gets the point somehow, even though Thornton has the better, what's the prop title was like seventeen and a half versus nine and a half.

47:09

Like obviously Gray could catch one touchdown and Thornton gets you to twenty five yards, but it's only on two catches or something. It's like you need to know a gray and leave the money that twenty and a half, nine and a half. So, yeah. So like those are what I think these guys get funneled in for, you know, Evan Ingram, no one's really on him. I mean, he might actually be the most interesting, although I don't trust it at all.

47:28

I'm just saying it's like a $3,400 over there. It's at least competition for Pat Bryant, Mims, Franklin that are mostly going to be the ones getting mixed in. So I think that's somewhat. But honestly, he might be the second own to them. Like he'll probably still be more on the Mims and Franklin. So it kind of just be. Uh, decision there with him and Pat Bryant, but I don't have too much else to add here.

47:48

I think Kelley is the most interesting, interesting of the bunch, not because it's the most obvious, but because I said it earlier, I would also consider him at captain tonight to get you a more balanced bill, just a different roster construction. He's The way that works is if it gets really spread out at the other spots. And we both, we all talked about this, that both these quarterbacks and teams can spread the ball at a ton.

48:13

That's why we had interest in Bo Nix and Mahomes up top. So that kind of solves it for me right there. All right. Hoop, talk to us about the defenses and the kickers. Any preference tonight on either of those? Like I know we'll go to title next. He said it could be sort of that slog type game, run the ball a bunch and then whatever. I think that affects both defenses and kickers. So got to think from that perspective. What's your thoughts?

48:37

Yeah, I always end on my guy, Butker. I mean, he's super, I mean, a legit kicker. I mean, very steady. They'll kick field goals, too. I mean, they're fine with it. I mean, a lot of teams will push it a little bit more. The Chiefs are definitely fine taking field goals in certain situations. And on Butker, who's Denver, Will Lutz, yeah, sure. I mean, I'll include him in these games.

49:00

I think these guys could actually be better in the low-scoring sort of games where just give me some points and, you know, let's move on. So always good with those two guys. And then defense, yeah, I mean, going to keep it included. I mean, I don't know. I mean, maybe prefer the Broncos over the Chiefs. I don't know. Like, I'll keep them in, and it's going to be one of those nights, whatever I get, I get at defense. Title, what's your thoughts?

49:24

I mean, you mentioned how the game could go that way. And when you're building for that, how are you thinking about using these two different positions mixed in? Yeah, if I think lower scoring running, not as many full point receivers aren't catching a bunch of passes, less full point PPR, there's lower scoring that I have interest in all four of them. I can go any RJ Harley, any Dobbins, any Kelley, any Worthy team.

49:46

And I wouldn't be shocked if either defense or either kicker outscored him today in a vacuum. So for that reason, I think I should be overweight all four or at least close. Bucker is my favorite, but Yeah, I'm in on all of them for sure, especially coming on the defense, a spot to look just like real-life football. We don't always talk the trenches, injuries on defense and line and stuff. Even though it's important, it's baked into the lines.

50:09

Chiefs will be starting an undrafted rookie at left tackle today. And, yeah, I expect heavy pressure and the Broncos to come with some stunts on that side. So something to look out for. Yeah, definitely think that's an interesting point too. And people always talk about like this Chiefs D and the capability and that type of thing. So again, one thing I'll say title, just go back to you.

50:30

Like I was gonna say again, but I'll talk about it after the roster construction. What are you seeing as popular tonight for the build types? Like what do you think? Is there anything that translates from yesterday? I mentioned earlier, like sometimes when a guy like Dak fails and a guy like Jaxson Dart goes off, but then like Hoops said with the ankle injury and that stuff too for Knicks, who knows if he's going to be running it a bunch, but I'll ask you another question after.

50:51

Go ahead. Give me your first stuff. I'm thinking of a bunch of different things now. Yeah, I think it's going to be more Chiefs than Broncos, and I think four-two is probably going to be the most popular. I think three-three is going to be relatively popular as well. Five-one is not as much.

51:07

I think probably four Broncos, two Chiefs is more popular than five-one Chiefs, but I do think it's going to be mainly more so Chiefs builds, and then Like the Pat Bryant, like if people are going to go to value on the Broncos side, it really feels like it's Pat Bryant. Otherwise, people are just going to be spending up for the most part. So is that how you see it? Three, three, four, two Chiefs? I think so.

51:29

I mean, early on, I'm not seeing a bunch of I definitely the way the pricing spreads out, too. And it's like, you know, you can fit this guy or this guy or this guy like on similar price ranges. And I'm using what I'm talking about is like Waddle or Rice or Sutton. And then Worthy just down in the middle. But you also have like Sutton, who's just a little bit more or you've got Kelley there.

51:47

So it's like there's always a guy for every side. And then we talked about it earlier with like Thornton. OK, but do I want him or do I want Pat Bryant? Well, you could play them both. And so you see that mixture across. Mahomes and Bo Nix, two hundred bucks apart as quarterbacks. You don't always see the Delta be that small. So I do think you nailed it with that.

52:04

I was going to ask you, though, if you had the props up for the quarterback rushing tonight. I bet you both are being in check, and I might just parlay them both together because I think, A, the Bo Nix stuff, I think that's such a crazy, weird injury if you remember the game and then the whole next week. It could have been Denver in the Super Bowl. It was a possibility at least, I guess, the way New England looked in the setup.

52:29

But anyway, he could be fine. And the Mahomes one's more scary, but also think about who he is. Patrick Mahomes, like he's really got, he doesn't have much else to prove. I think he's going to want to, if anything, he's going to want to just prove that he's all good. And if this Denver D is coming at you, just like it could be on the other side, these guys are going to want to scramble and they might have to.

52:48

So the- I mean, they should be like Mahomes had a great like his procedure and his recovery was really sped up and looks good. Like we are no we know Mahomes for scrambling, running, being able to rush touchdowns and Bo can do it, too. It's just how much are the play callers going to be? I mean, yeah, even if the play cars don't call it in the game of football, you got to sometimes adjust.

53:13

So if you think that's the case, I think that should only make them more appealing at captain for sure. And you can bet it's a sixteen and a half, fourteen and a half. Sixteen and a half, fourteen and a half for rushing props. Coop, you got any bets? You got anything you like over there? Anything you want to talk about with that other site we're calling it now? Maybe we don't even... Yeah, I was going to...

53:32

These bonuses before we got to this part of the show, I mean, I was going to refuse to talk about it, but I guess we can get in there. I do like that Bo Nix over. I think he'll run a little bit more than that for sure. What was it? Sixteen and a half or something? Yeah. Yeah. I think those are a little bit more than that.

53:50

I think like two with that D coming at him, they're, they're always, I mean, one just flip, turn around and then go. And then he gets that sideline run. Like he can get three of those that he's not even at risk and he's picking up eight to ten yards. We'll do that twice. And you crushed your sixteen and a half. I know like, um, rushing problem. Maybe it's longest rush props too. I have to look at those. But yeah, I don't know.

54:09

I think it's actually really interesting. Yeah. Uh, FanDuel, uh, Rashee Rice, I mean, I really like him on DK, a little less appealing. I mean, he's right there with the quarterbacks at at $11,400. He's got to do do a lot. I mean, you know, I'm on DK, you know, eight to nine catches, a hundred yards. That's that's a phenomenal performance, less appealing.

54:31

On uh on on FanDuel uh Courtland Sutton's more expensive than Jaylen Waddle $10,200 for Sutton nine six for Waddle like man it's that's Courtland Sutton's gonna be a tough click on uh on FanDuel at that uh at that price point uh those Denver running backs eighty-eight for Dobbins eight two for harvey I think I like them more on on FanDuel than I do on on DK going down to the bottom range. Pat Bryant is $2,400.

55:03

He's going to be owned. He'll be even more owned on FanDuel because $2,400 is, I mean, just dirt. He's less on FanDuel than DraftKings. $2,400 something. And you're like, but I have $10,000 more. He's less. That's crazy.

55:15

Just a crazy price I mean a couple catches like I mean three catches for forty yards like he could be you know on optimal with that so it's just an insanely low price tag he's definitely gonna be owned for sure I mean the OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ on that's got to be I don't even know maybe forty thirty somewhere thirty forty five percent um yeah let's see anything else Yeah, not too much else. But yeah, like Rishi Rice, pretty expensive on FanDuel.

55:47

Sutton, more expensive than Waddle, I'd say is the big price to tend to for Sutton is definitely a very tough clip. Yeah, I mean, it does work. From both ways in my mind, because it's like the, that's, that's when it's kind of fun on it. Well, twofold. I'm saying like the way I'm handled, it's an ugly click for sure. You gotta, I always called it paying up way down. Yeah.

56:12

But it's like, if you did that, you could then maybe get away with Bryant or you could do it and not play Brian. Oh, with the more balanced route. So it's like a way to think about it where it's different. I was just trying to find it myself now title. Cause now I'm thinking about those props and even betting those rushing ones.

56:25

But what is the, uh, the swap tonight on, uh, Waddle okay I got what I see Waddle fifty seven and a half Sutton forty point five yep it's not too bad and yeah and it's week one like this is the first time we're gonna see like no it's a lot of guesswork even for books as well about How the split's going to be. What's the chief – I mean, I always like Spaggs on defense. Highly respect. We're talking good coaches.

56:50

I think he's a phenomenal defensive coordinator. And he's going to, yeah, maybe take Waddle out and make Sutton beat him. Probably going to bring pressure and see how Bo Nix's knee is. Yeah. Very, very interesting slate. The Pat Bryant decision on FanDuel, I think is the big one, but quarterbacks always are higher on at the captain or MVP spot on FanDuel that I do think if you want Waddle, maybe not Kenneth to an extent, but Dobbins, um, Rashee Rice, even Xavier Worthy, Kelley.

57:19

I'm more Likely, I think, to get different MVP on FanDuel because I think the ownership gap is going to be wider and because it's harder for me to find pivots in that Bryant range. Like Thornton, who I like, and Johnson. These guys are still a decent bit higher than Pat Bryant today. He very well could score five and be optimal at that price. So, yeah, I think getting different MVP when playing Pat Bryant is something I'd look to do.

57:44

Final score you're thinking for the game title? If you had to peg one out here and just think it's going to be one team winning versus the other, are you going to pick? What do you got? We used to do this in the past. Maybe I'll remember on Thursday if the chat puts it in. We don't have a bunch of time here today trying to keep these things up to date for you guys and ready to roll.

58:02

Hoop, if you had to put a final score on this game, what are you thinking? That's a tough one. You guys know I love my Chiefs, but I think it's going to be Broncos. I'll go... I think we're going to see some points. I'll go thirty one to twenty five. Twenty five. Where are you getting that? I don't know. I said twenty five. I just started thinking. You better bet that over, boy. That's a big over that you got there. I think we score here.

58:32

I think there's some scoring, but maybe not twenty five. Maybe I'll say, I don't know, twenty eight. Twenty four. Twenty seven. Twenty eight. Thirty one. Twenty eight. I think we see a little bit, I think we see a little bit of action, but I think it's, I think it's going to be. Twenty four, ten Chiefs. That's what I'm going to do. Twenty four, ten, twenty four, ten. Maybe that, maybe that's the sign that I'm going to win tonight. Hoop, twenty four, ten.

58:54

Twenty four, ten Hoopster. So yeah, I like that. I think this is good. I don't have too much else to add title. Do you have any other final thoughts for the slate you want to bring up? No, I mean, still a $500,000 to first today. Like prizes are still great. They always are for showdowns, but they usually are better right now than they will be week nine on a Monday. I think it's a solid slate.

59:14

And anytime football is on the screen, it's good. So, like you said, even if it's been the worst week one or the best week one, it's not over yet. So good luck tonight. That's the bottom line. It's been a bad week one for me so far. I can tell you that much. But it's at the end of the day, it is only we might not be a bad week one after tonight, though. I'm telling you, man, five hundred. Turn it all around.

59:34

Turn it all around in one little swing of the bat. I'm going to try and win the four ninety and get it right back immediately for that FFWC and rock that ticket. Join my boy Axtron bringing the good mojo all week, pumping in those credits to us and taking care of us. He's, you know, he's in there. Yobi Trice with the ticket. Sorry, Axtron with the tickets. Yobi Trice with the credits and then getting his own ticket. So I'm looking to join you, Yobi.

59:57

So we appreciate you. Thank you, guys. Hoop, any final thoughts from you before we get out of here? No, let's finish strong. Good game overall. I mean, Broncos, Chiefs, Monday night. It's going to be fun. Looking forward to it. I wish they'd go back. I did like when they had the two games on Monday. That was always fun. We'll get some. Yeah. They've done that the last couple seasons, though, opening week one. Yeah, the first week. We didn't get so far enough.

1:00:20

Yeah. I would have liked to see two tonight, but we got one. It's all been the first week? I didn't know that. Yeah, they're doing the two for sure. It's like an eight p.m. Eastern start and then like a ten Eastern start. They've done that the last at least couple years, I believe. I said we'd get it, and I'm on week seven and still see nothing, so I'm getting scared. There must be reasoning behind it.

1:00:40

They've spread out a lot of this, which I do like. Maybe because they did that Wednesday game this week. They didn't do the two, I'm sure. It has something to do with that, but Yeah, excited for this one. Broncos, cheers. And then we'll be right back to work next week for week two. So let's finish strong. I actually don't think there's any. What did you say, sir? I don't think there's one Monday game.

1:01:01

They did it a couple times in the last couple years. Yeah, I just scrolled through all of it. Yeah. I'm guessing there's something with ratings that probably didn't work out all that well because it did overlap a little bit. It was kind of goofy. It was good for DFS with the late swap and live projection and all that, but yeah, I'm not seeing it. I just got another bonus from Panduel. Oh, I wonder if I got it. Check it out. See if you guys got it.

1:01:28

We're live. It doesn't matter. Who cares? But the Wednesday game is what they pushed, like Ross and Nate said. But did you get the extra bonus? You got a twenty five dollar extra bonus. I know I got. Yeah, I still have a little more than I had. My $2,600 and five thirty. So I'm still going to expires. I don't even know what they're doing, man. Like, I'm fine with the expire.

1:01:48

I said, like, if it was up to me, that's all I would have done. I would have said, listen, we messed up. Here's your week one back. Play week two like it's week one. But I got a second bonus that expires.

1:01:58

Twelve hours before the first one so I'm not sure what the why the expiries would be different but I'll have to look in like also it's the worst expiry shit ever like I'm what a hundred and seventy eight hours from now yeah that's what mine is like what I was just trying to when is it I get it but it's like why don't you just make it easy on me and there's a lot of technology these days you could just tell us exactly when the shit expires not giving me a countdown clock I was thinking the same thing.

1:02:25

Imagine they got the infrastructure to run the expires in countdown clock right to the seconds instantly for you, but they can't make their site work on week one when NFL is required. I mean, I struggle to find that. You're telling me there's not some brainiacs out there like coding this and that that you don't have on standby? Because you paid them a hundred thousand dollars to fix that.

1:02:46

That's going to save them so much more money than these millions that they have to pay out. Like, you know, you're going to have traffic week one. I just cannot fathom that. It is mind blowing. Like I said, I said it to my money. As I said, it's insanity. So yeah, you're not dealing with a sane company and you just said it perfectly. Like have the server, just press the button that upgrades at all.

1:03:06

I don't care for the Person you need, have them on call waiting. It's week one. I have multiple people on calls. We're talking around with people ready to go with our servers upgraded on the Slate Station and the stone tube and making sure our customers are getting active coverage with no issues. These guys need it done. Nades goes to cloud and then he'll figure it out for them. I mean, someone... That's a good point. Yeah, I did say that yesterday. Shout out to Ross on that one.

1:03:31

It's a deposit button work the entire time. Not the first time. It's just funny the way this stuff goes. But anyway. The casino and sports book were still working. So that's all you need to know. Can we use the bonus credits? It just says that. I know. I was looking. I would have taken my bonus and just went straight to the fucking casino, but they don't allow it. You don't answer the virtual slots. What is it? What are you and Nades like?

1:03:55

Huff and puff, baby. Huff and puff. Huff and puff, man. Me and Nades would have been huffing and puffing. We would have gotten the... The, the mansion bonus, it would have been, it would have been great. That's what you meant. You should sue them because you missed out on that. You would have hit the bonus. I would have hit the bonus for sure. Like if I had access to those funds, I would have hit the, what's it called?

1:04:13

Nades will fire it off in like two seconds. So the big bonus on there is like the, Millionaire mansion thing where the whole thing is like matchouts.

1:04:21

It's a it's a sight to see actually, you know, it's funny One of our guys hit me up on Twitter yesterday and said now as I was watching names will appreciate this as I was watching the show Josh Ingram sent me a screenshot needs filled up the screen with mansions for $3,000 because I was watching you title and Tambo do the show he goes I hit the I hit the mansion Wow Good for him.

1:04:44

A little GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗ takedown watching a show before the actual action. Oh, yeah. Yeah. That's where you just unregister from the slate and lock in the dub for the day and move on. Yeah. Man. That's awesome. All right. Well, I think that's going to be it guys. I don't got too much else here to add. I feel good about where we're at for tonight. We're going to get all the stuff up on the site. If you guys aren't a member yet, you still have time.

1:05:08

We talked about, if you want to get the early bird special, you cannot get single sport SaberSim on their own site. So you can only get it here with us. The three forty nine deal includes the entire season. Plus your ship at games entry. So if you use nothing at all, you'd at least still be in Ship It Games, be able to play every week. The link will be posted in Discord tomorrow.

1:05:26

And then as for the top, like I remembered, it's like S Raulco and like, What was the other name? It was... I'm going to read them one more time just because I got it here. I posted it in the Discord, but you guys should reach out to us. And Skrbetz, twenty-nine. We got Jcalhu, seven, who reached out, but Srauko and Skrbetz, twenty-nine. You guys are going to have to hit us up because it is important.

1:05:44

You do have to validate yourself because you have to be an all-access or an NFL-only member. We're making sure everybody gets taken care of. I would assume you are, but just want to make sure you guys hit us up so we can get on with the next one and get into week two and then get access to your share ship. We're going to get that group started for this week, so... All right, guys, that's going to do it for this one.

1:06:01

For Hoop, for Tidal, and for myself, ToeTag, and Tambo, good luck in your contest tonight. Let's ship it!

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Jump to a Game

  1. 0:00Intro
  2. 5:12Ship It Games Winners and Membership Updates
  3. 6:35Broncos vs Chiefs Slate Overview
  4. 10:51Captain Picks and Ownership Strategy
  5. 21:00Quarterbacks: Bo Nix vs Patrick Mahomes
  6. 24:07Running Backs and Backfield Splits
  7. 30:08Wide Receivers and Value Plays
  8. 37:53Week 1 Review and Late Swap Process
  9. 42:58Tight Ends: Travis Kelce and Evan Engram
  10. 48:20Defenses and Kickers
  11. 50:34Roster Construction and Popular Builds
  12. 52:04Quarterback Rushing Props
  13. 54:12FanDuel Pricing and MVP Strategy
  14. 57:44Score Predictions and Final Slate Thoughts
  15. 1:01:21FanDuel Bonuses and Site Issues
  16. 1:04:56Membership Reminders and Wrap-Up

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