NFL Week 2 – Takedown Breakdown | Winning DFS DraftKings Lineups & Strategy Review

And before I get to the perfect lineup, I do want to say one thing because you brought it up, but It is only week two, and we usually get a little bit of a topic going and just go back and forth on it. I saw a lot of people amongst multiple discords talking about like two losing weeks probably should just take a break or probably get out.

It's like I think you've got to remember the bankroll managementBankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗ needs to be calculated from day one, and you need to decide what type of player you are or classic or showdown or both. Because if you are looking at it from that perspective, it's twofold for me, Nades, and I'll let you go back and forth on this. But if you're playing all eighteen weeks and the playoffs and all of this, let's say it's twenty five weeks, just roughly give or take.

And then you want to factor in that there's four slates a week. Well, now you're factoring for a hundred slates. So you got to take your money and divide it up by that just to get a baseline. I'm not suggesting you play the exact same amount on every slate either. That's the secondary piece to it. But you should have that kind of idea. If you're in it, you got to be in it for the long game.

We saw it last night and it's no shot at anybody. I don't know who won. I didn't. It wasn't me. I can tell you that. But like when a showdown slate is chopped up, you're going to see me be in the mix. But I want to continue playing Showdown because it's been successful for me all along in the past.

So I want to be there when my three-way chop hits for $300,000 or something like that or two or $50,000 or depending on what the top prize is up there on any given evening. So I can afford to lose what I'm playing because I'm playing the long game. And when it goes my way, hopefully it'll be for $50,000 plus on, you know, a pretty small chop up to.

$200,000, $300,000, whatever it looks like, depending on, like I said, how much is up top. So if you're feeling like you're out of money already, probably wasn't devised with a pretty good with a sound strategy. That's something you'd want to think about for the NFL season because and it goes for all sports, really.

But specifically for NFL, it's a long season ahead and you get more data and As the season goes on, there's tons of big tournaments and fun ones coming up that we own mid-season main event. You can win tickets for and allocate for and all that. But anything on the bankroll management side of things, Nades, I just think it's something that I'm seeing it way too early this year.

Like people have literally blown their load on their bankroll load on two weeks in on these contests. Yeah, I mean, that's the biggest thing, right? Like the perfect example, right, is the last week, right? If you haven't had a chance to watch the take on breakdown with you and Belman last week, you guys walked through it, right? I mean, these pros as some of the best of the best, right? Best players in the world go on a year downswing, right?

And get it all back and then some in one night, right? So in order to do that, you have to be in the game, right? I know it's, Very easy, right? You got afternoon only, you got early only, you got the main slate, you got showdown Sunday night. Sunday can get expensive very fast, right? If you don't manage bankroll management, everyone touts it, everyone talks about it, but it's just not followed enough, right?

As much as people talk about it and say, yeah, yeah, yeah, I pay attention, right? That's why you're seeing the tilting in the discards. You're seeing the tilting on social media. Oh, the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ this, the chalk that. This is terrible. If it only went this way, I'd still be able to play, right? So, I mean, the most common result going into any slate, any sport, any whatever in DFS is you're going to lose.

That is the guarantee you just hope that that guarantee is proven false for one two if you're lucky three times a year and hopefully it's in a way and you're playing in the right way where as a GPPGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗ player you can make it all up and then some right kind of like last night I talked on the showdown uh the showdown show the the new show we have here on this channel I'm just not playing five-one Chiefs.

I'm not playing the way the fieldThe FieldThe field is everyone else entered in a contest, the group of lineups you are competing against.Before you build, picture the typical lineup in your contest. Then decide on purpose where you'll match it and where you'll step away from it.Full explanation ↗ is going to do. I'm not going to play this guy and this guy because it just leads you in the same kind of build, and that's why you saw a sixty-whatever-weight shot. If it's slates like that, that's fine.

I'm okay losing my entire entry and getting uh pennies back basically on what I have in because I know not every slate's going to go that way and the more it does go that way and people continue to conform to that now that just gives us a better edge as tournament players to play against that right and that's kind of the evergreen content that we're trying to get to and why we spend our time doing these shows every Monday right this isn't our most viewed show this doesn't drive a ton of revenue and sign ups and things like that for us as a business but we don't care we do it because We like to help our community and think this is a very important process.

And we talk about a lot of evergreen content here that you can apply to all sports and just your overall DFS play as a whole. Yeah. We talk about all the time. Like I literally devised a project off of this as many know that are here, but if you haven't checked out dfsmastermind.com, you can see it. Even if you did nothing else and just went and got the modules for forty seven bucks.

I mean, that's that's me talking to a thousand plus players like the people that watch the show. This gets amazing. You know, a thousand to $2,000 views on any given week. So it's not like it's a $10,000 view show or something like that.

But people that recognize that in all games of life, whether you want to get better at chess or at golf or at whatever it might be, you probably got to go figure it out and you can get there faster by learning from others and digging in and looking at results and some of the best players and all that, which we'll get to in a second when we get into the data that we use on this show.

But I asked a thousand plus DFS players and then took my $10,000 plus hours of experience and just put it all into this. These modules, you can take it in a nine to five shift. If you listen to me, if you can go with the fast talking that I do and get through to X, you can do that, too, and get through it in four hours instead of eight. But the idea would be that you can put your time in, figure this out.

And then if you want to join the entire community, there's only, there's over five hundred members in there. It is a one time cost for ninety seven or you can do a two payment plan of two forty nine. But that's where you can get all the videos and the modules and the strategy and the over the shoulder stuff that we talk about on this show. But you nailed it, Nate. It's like you got to go back and dig in. You want to get ahead.

You want to be able to find these little things and they're good topics of discussion. That's why I like it. You know, the run of a week, Alex and I had a conversation on Saturday about single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ versus large field and about stacking and over stacking and all that and run backs and all those. And lo and behold, the exact example that we talked about when we get to it here, we're going to look at the perfect lineup first.

When we get to the winner of the no Miami run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗. And it's because you had a guy like Trey Tucker wide receiver one, you need to be perfect. Well, he was in a spot, no Bowers, still that sort of thing that you could just go back to and see. And I love this one too, from Delbert McFly speaking to the big guy, you know, RIP, the big guy in the sky, always looking down and says, flesh wound, flesh wound, flesh wound banger, right?

Just, just go through those things, but you can't sustain the flesh wounds if you don't have the bankroll sitting there. So that's the kind of key that you got to remember. Definitely that, you know, there's always a way to think about it from that perspective. Now we'll get to it. Nate's here. Um, it's, uh, Eli D. Katz, you know, who won the Mills, the twenty dollar million. We'll get to it in a second with two thirty two point three eight.

But before we look at that, just want to note the perfect lineup just to see like what you could have got to yesterday. We always know this is results oriented for those new to the show. We're not. Again, not a ton to glean, but obviously what you want to look at is to see like what was out there, what hit, and it can give you ideas and shapes for what you could have done differently or look at on the slate.

Nobody was really getting to Jonah Coleman, obviously, right? You got some, some injury stuff there. Harvey was out. So people were on Dobbins for sure. But then when Dobbins got injured as well, it's like then Coleman comes in. Yeah, that's a little bit unique. But the main thing was the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ running backs just did not come through like people expected yesterday. Bijan got dusted. There's the Panthers D. By the way, people think like the Panthers D just mean Bijan – you know, doesn't get anything.

It's, it's not always that it's also that there's the, there's a ton of Bijan lineups that won't have Panthers D in it. So you got the D against the popular lineup construction, which is Bijan in forty percent plus a lineups or whatever it was. So there's that. And then the, you know, wide receiver in the flex, there was two tight end lineups bounced back when nobody wanted them anymore. So that's another thing. But it was like, you know, look at this line.

It was like, you know, Coleman Hampton, In Jigba, you'll see in some of the other lines, like Jones still made it in with just thirteen points or Henry got in there with seventeen because it was still good enough. So this is the perfect lineup. I'll let you run through it quickly, but nothing that out of the ordinary here for me. I just think it's like, you know, look at like Schultz got there, not on Bijan. You played Panthers, not on the expense of running back.

So you went to the expense of wide receiver. Nobody was really on, which is JSN. He went off. What's your thoughts here, Nades? Anything you want to add? Yeah, so obviously coming into the slate yesterday, we knew three running back builds looked very strong. That was a starting point in cash. And that was including Bijan, CMC, Derrick Henry. And there was like three or four other kind of ancillary guys to that of the group of five to six running backs. Right.

Three of those were kind of coming built based in a majority of people's teams. Right. Which is fine. And this goes back to your portfolio and bankroll managementBankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗, right? It is fine to play that way because it did look very strong on paper, but who's to say you can't divert some of your portfolio to getting overweight in three wide receivers, but not only three wide receivers, three spend up receivers.

When most teams were spending up at at least two running back spots and then putting Aaron Jones in as a value and then punting off tight end and typically punting one wide receiver spot, right? So they were getting their value from Aaron Jones. From the tight end position where there was three good tight end value plays, right? One of them on the Raiders, right? And then people were punting off with like a Douglas from the afternoon spot at the wide receiver position, right?

In that $4,000 range. So how do you kind of flip that script of going in? Okay, what if it doesn't? Go that way? How do I set myself up for success? Why can't I see what a spend up wide receiver build looks like? Use four wide receivers instead of three and see what that looks like and then kind of fill in the pieces around that, right?

So it's not getting caught up on the picks and plays the Dax, the Coleman, the Hampton of the world. That's just a process of the result. But overall, the lineup structure here is what you should try and take away from this and see. OK, we knew going in, spend up wider running backs and three running backs were coming in. Sixty percent of teams. Why can't I play the other side? Right.

And and make sixty people walk out of the room and I'm left with forty people now. And then of those forty. Thirty eight of them have either Bijan or Derrick Henry on them. Right. Something like that. So I think that's the biggest thing that I kind of take away from this is just building differently, still using the popular plays that everybody wanted to play. Yeah, one thing I'll add too, just like Ross is always here supporting, appreciate that.

So you'll love the Panthers defense, DeVonta. And then that was one piece he said, which is, again, I think that one's obvious. Like people wonder how you get to that. It's if you're not on Bijan and you're, again, I always talk about this and you can be on anybody. That just is the one that worked out. It's obviously insane how sometimes these defense runouts are and you're like, holy shit. And the guy gets to stumble all the way into the box.

It's not just like fall on the ground. The big guy that kind of like gets it, scoops it. Ends up rolling into the end zone. Like it could have been less, sure. But the point being, you know, it does happen if you're not on something and you land there. I know a lot of people played Tennessee yesterday who weren't on Philly guys. And it was like, you still could have got, what, nine points out of them for stone minimum or whatever.

So it's again, not going to compete when there's twenty six out there. But it was it was up there still and could have made the difference for some. DeVonta sucked in week one. No way he could do it in week two. But like this is the one I know people struggle with when we do this perfect lineup review. Because Ross is being nice and trying to say, hey, it kind of made sense in retrospect. You just wouldn't get to it though, right?

Like point one percent, you're not going to get there. So don't harp on that. But like you said, if you're thinking like that and you build a lineup, it's not really that that doesn't make sense what you just said. It makes a ton of sense. You worded it perfectly.

But the key being, okay, when you get that right, the Sean Tucker week, when people like, you remember last season or whatever it was when Bucky was chalk and it was like, oh, I could have went to Sean Tucker and got even more and built this way. It's like you're probably not getting to the rest of the lineup if you get that part right. You might have been on a DAC triple with certain guys that busted another spot.

So it's like you probably weren't going to get enough to make it work. But I will note, Nades, and this is just quick back of the napkin math here. But like Jonah Coleman put him up to $5,100, which was Aaron Jones. OK, and I think he got thirteen. Then put Hampton up to seventy two or whatever to seventeen point seven or whatever. Derek Henry got and then dropped Smith down to digs or whatever at fifty three or fifty one.

Like, I think that's close enough to the money that you need. And there was two hundred bucks left over anyway. But my point being, if you had a went back. With Derek Henry chalk, cause you're not on Andrews and with Jones chalk and whatever. And then you get digs, right? With just CD digs and deck. Well, Trey Tucker still could have been a one-off that you landed on. Schultz was good chalk. You end up with JSN and the Panthers.

I'm just throwing it out there that that still would have been enough to win the Milly Maker and would have probably been a lineup that you would have built something like, or could have seen yourself building in a single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ or whatever. It is results oriented. It's more just to explain the pattern of like, you don't need all these low own plays. That's what the optimal was.

But you could have made a couple moves and played a bunch of chalk together and still had enough separators because that's what I'm trying to prove. Dak, Lamb, Diggs with Derrick Henry and Jones and Schultz, most people would be like, well, that's way too much chalk. But it's really not when you have Trey Tucker, but you're not playing Mayer and you're also knowing that Bowers is still out. You're not on Gentee.

You're not playing a third running back and you're using a guy that's coming in that people know is a guy that can smash, but he's coming in at sub-ten percent because of the slate dynamics, okay? And then you're not on Bijan, so why not just play the D against them? Six, eight, like these are not, you know, one percent on plays or .one percenters. I'm just showing that you can get to a lot more chalk and still get away with it that most don't know.

That's kind of the way that you can set it up, right? They look for too many of these three percent ownedOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ plays or two percent owned plays and then wonder why it's all going to crap. It's like because you probably didn't get the other stuff right around it. A lot of people were in on a lot of these other options here, but we can move on. Real quick, if you guys haven't checked it out, what I'm on right now.

So if you go to DFSOS, like we showed you earlier, dfsos.com, use code SHIPIT if you want half price or just get started for free. There's a seven day free trial. So we're not selling you on as much as until you want the deal, but you can go check it out for free. But when you're on there and you go to the dashboard, It is a personalized dashboard for yourself.

So you could set it up, everything that you want here, the perfect lineup. You can backtest your projections and ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. You can check out the contest lobby if you want to see what tournaments are plus EV and all the different fill rates and everything for all different sports across the board. You can check out the news. I use this, like let's use this for a second.

I use it to like look up and I don't know what the latest is on Puka and what it'll be, but from one hour ago, NFL Monday Night Preview without Mills Garrett and perhaps Puka as well. This is from two hours ago, Joseph Zucker on Bleacher Report talking about stuff with Puka. Like all the latest news is uploading automatically as you want to get it and be able to find stuff out on there.

And then we just went to the perfect lineup to show you that. And then we picked the slate that we were on.

But now we're going to go to the top and go to slate review go to yesterday and then we're going to go there's the $555 and the twenty and we're going to start with the twenty our man Hebrew cheetah again shout out to him we were all sweating with him in the Discord I love Rio because it's you never know how people are and so I'm following it way before and I mean it kind of just happened as Ferguson went off late but I said like once I get up there I'm definitely still following it to try and find out who's going to be in the mix and you know You don't want to just text somebody and be like right away, because some people don't like that.

But he posted in the chat with the screenshot and said, one touchdown to Ferguson from Lamb here, and we can ship the Mills. And right away, I'm like, LFG, let's go. This is the spot. I'm glad he's interested in sweating it with us, because that's what we love as a community. It's a lot of fun to be able to be behind that. And then, of course, it goes to Lamb.

But man, when you get that pass, and it just could be Ferguson, it's like even my heart was in my throat. Like, Oh, and then the game kind of shut down because he still did have digs on the other side. But Washington waved the white flag. So it was unfortunate. But either way, still nice to get six figures.

I know it's brutal when it's like a $900,000 swing from what could have been, but could have been a lot worse, too. That's the thing about these types of tournaments. It's like... Yeah, you want the milli, a hundred percent, not just for the money, but for the achievement. I'm in the same boat for that one. Want it bad, but the $100,000 is still nice, but damn, you don't want to go down. Like, man, like anything doesn't go your way there.

And it's $12,500 instead or ten or seven. It's such a big difference between $100,000. And seven, it's the same thing. It's worse, actually, because it's like, you know, it's like $70,000 versus a million, $7,000 versus a hundred. But the $900,000 swing is a lot. I get it. But it's more the achievement fact. You want to hit that and unlock the million dollar score. But congrats to Rio. Incredible lineup. We'll go through it in a second.

Nades, anything you want to add on any of that stuff? Yeah, no, it's always fun to, uh, fun to sweat it out. Right. And, uh, obviously, right. You don't love a $900,000. Um, it wasn't like he, he dropped, right. He needed stuff to go his way. Right. He was obviously same thing. McCaffrey, they had JSN, they had them together lamb. So it didn't really, but he was up against Purdy versus Dak and, um, the other side, right.

With, uh, Jayden Daniels getting hurt, kind of hurt Dak as well, right? Because, I mean, we would have had like four or five minutes in that game to come back on the other side with Diggs. So that obviously played into it as well. But yeah, incredible week for him. I do see four hundred dollars left over and three hundred dollars up to the Panthers defense. And why could that make sense? It's not just a results oriented, right?

Because you're fading Bijan in this roster as well. Right. And the Jets were the popular team. The popular kind of cheap D, obviously, this is part of his portfolio, right? So he didn't handpick this team and stuff like that. But that's a little thing, too, if you were landing on something like this and you have the four hundred dollars instead of just eating that chalk with with the cheap D. And you're not already not on Bijan, right.

It makes sense to kind of go up a little bit there, but that's, that's a hundred percent results oriented there. Great run out. And yeah, we can, we can take a look at the lineup that slightly edged him out. Yeah. You know, you're building a good lineup when, cause that's a portfolio play.

So it's not going to just be able to slide it in there, but the note being that it could have found that like the way that portfolio works, it could have said, it just didn't, it's just unfortunate, but it's like, it could have said, Hey, no Bijan in this lineup, let us throw the Panthers in it. It just didn't. So that's part of it. Yeah. Where did I see? This one said... The second part of it said the Panthers D was a very big key.

I was not looking on it, but looking back, I should have been. That's why I said that's more of a realistic opportunity of thinking about the game and game theory than it is Jonah... Whatever his name... What was his name? Jonah Coleman? The backup for the backup? You know what I mean? That's fine. I know that RJ Harley was out before the game even started, but my point being... That's just a product of a bunch of different factors.

Does it take luck with a DST to get that many points out of them? Absolutely it does. But it's saying like, when you look here, we have optimal rates. They weren't that much less optimal than like the $3,700 Eagles. And again, I'm all I was all over Bijan. I don't care when you're getting an almost twenty eight percent optimal Bijan at slightly negative leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗.

But if you did see this and see this on the stone over at Shippenation.com and wanted to use that as a way to again, it's all part of the puzzle. If you ended up getting there, it is very possible. And I talk about it all the time with these spots. Again, the Titans are It's only three percent. I get it.

But it's like if you're not going to be on any of these Eagles, you could play a twenty one dollar, two hundred dollar, sorry, Titans defense as well. So and yeah, Dobbins getting hurt did help Coleman. But it's also like, again, just if you were getting I would I mean, I don't know who got to Coleman yesterday before everything started. But if you did, it's like really tricky.

I hope whoever did get to Coleman before the tournament started got to a lot of him, because if you're going to play a point one percent guy, you need combinations to be able to get there and not just hope that he's your one guy in the certain lineup that you have that brings you there. But that's something where the stone can come into play. That's why I brought that back up. We'll go back here.

Um, you know, we'll do Rios first and then we'll go to the winner just because, but, uh, yo Rios, our boy, let's check it out. It was Dak with CD. And then he went with the double tight end with Schultz chalk, but Jake Ferguson to go into the Dak stack. Then it had Stefan Diggs on the run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗, so it was a three-one there. It had CMC and JSN as two afternoon guys that can just go off.

No Derrick Henry or Ravens, no Bijan or anything to do with that game. Really no chase Ja'Marr Chase early on or anything like that to go across from Schultz. It didn't, you know, wasn't needed, went with JSN. And then you look at that, had Aaron Jones chalk and the Jets D was whatever, but in a lineup with four hundred bucks left on the table and this kind of set up with two tight end, all that again, doesn't matter at all.

It's a, It's a great lineup. So I don't have too much to add to it, Nades, but obviously the most interesting part to me is like the two tight end factor coming back around. You see Schultz Kittle, you see Schultz Ferguson, you see Schultz Andrews. Schultz Andrews, again, product of the slate, but everybody went off it. We talked about it from week one where it was like, Um, you know, everyone went to tight end and the running back smashed. Well, what happened yesterday?

Tons of people played running backs, three of them. And now here you go getting tight ends, you know, zig when they zag type of thing. Well, this was a way you could get back to it. And that's how you get Dak lamb CMC, uh, and you get JSN on the same lineup. And then you just eat the values with Jones Schultz, get a run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗ with digs and plug in whatever defense fits.

Again, he obviously wishes he had a different defense, but who knows if it even would have been that other one. So that's the point. So I think it's a great way to think about it when you're looking at these builds and what could have been. It's more about slate dynamics.

Yeah, I think the biggest thing, too, is why two tight end was was sharp, not just because it won, but yesterday going in what we knew the value was weak in general outside of tight end. Right. And people were trying to say why tight end value isn't good. Right. Obviously, Andrews didn't do anything, but he was $4,400. Dalton Schultz was really, I mean, $3,200. It's valet was $4,200. He was another value. Bateman was another value.

But I say all that to say value in that $4,000 range was pretty, pretty thin. Right. And we knew going in that the field, I mean, fifty four percent of the field ran three running backs. Going in, Blickle talked about it, right? You can run a formulation and kind of calculate that for yourself going into any slate based on projected ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. You can use AI to help you do that as well. You can listen to content across the industry. Because what happened?

Week one, three running backs was needed. Week two, naturally, three running backs are going to be heavier on, right? Everyone's like, oh, the tight end plays are great, but we just saw three running backs win. I can't play two tight ends. And when I am playing two tight ends, most people were clicking in Mark Andrews or Michael Mayer. Right. So how can I play two tight ends differently as well?

That's one of the biggest things that I saw is seventeen percent of the field used two tight ends in the flex or two tight ends in terms of roster. The winners and the top twenty percent had a fifty percent clip. Obviously, that's that's more of a results oriented, but it's because it allowed you to open up value.

And those value plays at wide receiver were being forced as bringbacks in that in terms of game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗, instead of taking the value for what it is and using two tight ends in a way to not use one of those value wide receivers that were fringe in that range, but to attach it to your game environment, your stack, right? As a way that people aren't going to that game, right? Everybody wanted Javonte. Everybody wanted Pickens. Everybody wanted Lamb.

Nobody wanted Ferguson, but they expected Dak, right? Or Jayden Daniels, that game to be the highest scoring game, right? So if you're on that game, but the wrong pieces, it's not to say that you're off as a process wise, but just don't get blinded by the ownership and the projections and the optimal rates and all the kind of industry speak. When Ferguson done it before, right? It's not being results oriented there.

So that's one of the biggest takeaways that I see is a lot of the top pros and that based on my lineup study here, we're okay using two tight ends in the flex. And I think that was actually a pretty good strategy going in because we knew so many rosters were anchored with three running backs. Yeah, I think this is my tagline always. I talk about DFS is how, not who. It's not who you play.

It's how you play them, et cetera, et cetera. I think, again, people do get caught up very often in a situation like this being like, of course it was this play or that play got there. This is really a product of the slate dynamics. Like these... All are sharp players. Eli is super sharp. You see his logo everywhere. He's got a SaberSim logo. He's been, I think he's won the Mills multiple times, and now we'd have to look it up.

Hebrew, I think he's going to win a Milly. He almost did yesterday. He's at every live final. He crushes all sports. Bobby Fye, we know, is one of the better players out there, too. A lot of the iKeysers up here, Driver Seat Eye, Mr. Good Seats, Hishboo, Mock Lovin', like all the top players. Are up here and playing strongly and almost all of them. And I said, well, of course you're going to see two dental items. That's a product of the slate.

Okay. But you can think about this too. That's my point. So many people focus on Monday mornings about JSN got the best score and CMC and you needed those two together. And of course, Schultz got there with eight catches on the last drive and chalk, blah, blah, all this other stuff. Yes. But if you were to start, go back now, you're not allowed to rewind. That's the benefit of why we do this show and learn from it and move on.

And that's why even looking at winning lineups and perfect lineups, when we're looking at winning lineups and some people say it doesn't matter. Well, when you're looking at winning lineups and a bunch of Cactus Jack, by the way, all these guys, X Maliki, Brent, all these people have been up here before. It's not their first time or their first rodeo. So there is something to learn now. It's better when you can actually look in to their entire portfolio.

Spoiler alert, you can, but we're not doing all that here right now. Maybe on a future episode, we do dissect it and reverse engineer it that way too, Nades.

We've done that in the past, but just noting it, it's like my takeaway is not, jsn three touchdowns we if anyone out there thinks jsn couldn't score three touchdowns then that's on you but the reason we didn't build that way majority of us for the majority of our portfolios etc might have only had fifteen percent of them or ten percent or eighteen whatever you had of him most people didn't because of the way they were building if you were to rewind back and you knew everyone was building with three running backs You could have built your entire portfolio for what if that fails?

Not what if certain running back named X, Y, or Z fail. What if how people are building on this slate fails? Then you're just going to get... Picks and plays as a product of your process. Yes, they will end up becoming important. You did, as we review on Monday morning and on Sunday night, you did need JSN and CMC and some of these guys. Yes, you needed that. Right. And Schultz. You pretty much weren't getting to the top of anything without these guys.

But... It's a product of the process, right? Those are just the names that ended up. If you had went in saying, hey, if two running backs going to fail, what does that look like? Well, man, I really like Purdy. I know I did, but I didn't think about too many hand builds on my own where it was like, I'm still going to keep that Schultz value, but I want to make sure I get some Schultz Kittle builds because of this. Well, that could easily happen.

And it did, right? It's literally in the top lineup yesterday. So going to Eli's lineup needs quickly. Um, two thirty two point three eight. We saw about twenty off the optimal. Use the $50,000. That's not like people trying to leave like all this money on the table and stuff. No one's leaving money in the entire tournament, nor do you need to. Like there's just so many ways to get different. But Purdy with CMC and George Kittle.

We also talked about this early in the season. Um, Blickle and I about the pair in the running back with your quarterback more often. So again, here it is again. But Brock Purdy, CMC, Kittle. Then you had J.K. Dobbins. So we talked about Jonah Coleman showing up at the winner. Well, J.K. Dobbins was still in this lineup. So there you go. No R.J. Harvey, though. Kind of makes sense from that perspective, obviously. JSN with C.D. Lamb.

So you're just loading up on these other spots. Trey Tucker, not on Mayer or on Jeanty. You're not on the running backs, et cetera, et cetera. You got Kittle. And then it rounds out with the Patriots defense, which were kind of in between, right? People were paying down or they were paying up. So...

Really interesting build here nades but this is the uh the winner what do you want to add to this one I know you had some notes pre-show coming in I'm just going to load up while you're doing that because you can just click on his name and this is what I was saying earlier you could see like okay he had a hundred and sixty four unique players across a hundred and fifty lineups only thirty I say only like it only takes one by the way but thirty out of one fifty cashed right so it's about um it's at twenty percent that we always talk about so Um, twenty five percent in this case, but just going through it and then does right the first time.

Just going back through trying to find it here on DFS OS. There's a way. Oh, yeah. Here it is. Scroll down. I found it now. So, you know, here's the one lineup. They got the million bucks. The next closest lineup was two oh two. So this is the one that found its way to the top of Purdy McCaffrey Dobbins. You're starting to see it now. So you see the stack there, right? You got JSN. You got lamb. You got Dobbins.

But give us your takes on this this lineup needs. I know you had some notes there. Yeah, so I like this lineup a ton. The two tight end thing we already hit on there, but people were capping out at lamb, right? Lamb was the highest priced receiver people wanted to go to. And when they were doing that, they were also more times than not playing Dak Prescott for two hundred dollars more than Purdy here. Right.

So I think, again, the spend up wide receivers and how do you unlock that spend up wide receiver? You played the same value that everybody wanted to play, but everybody wanted to play Dalton Schultz.

It to get on to that uh Dallas and uh Washington right game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗ so you're playing this the popular plays it here and I'm sure in the portfolio right um I'm sure he was heavily invested in in bijan and henry and that and jk Dobbins hundred dollars less obviously it didn't work out but had jk Dobbins I mean he would have he would have boat raced the the field here right for hundred dollars less than Aaron Jones. Right.

So this is how you set up a portfolio to hopefully find one right that that tail far to the right, one lineup, one bullet, because these guys, their entire portfolio doesn't win. Right. They're just hoping one of their lineups has enough to get there and they've spent enough time to allow for two tight end builds and maybe a rule coded in when I'm going to tight ends.

I don't want the combination to be Schultz, Andrews and Mayer, two of those, I want to use two tight ends in a way that other people aren't that can allow my portfolio to get to a $4,600 kiddo instead of a $4,600 punt wide receiver that people wanted to go to. Right. In terms of I mean, Matthews Golden, right? $4,700. Right. In the flex, you can play him there.

Obviously, this lineup is capped out at $50,000. But that's kind of how you can think through this and extrapolate it out into your set. Right. Ville, $4,200 receiver. Right. Why not, kiddo? In this offense, something like that. Right. That's just a product of the game and going off. And people were on Purdy, but they were on Purdy with. Either McLaurin or Stefan Diggs. Obviously, Diggs still did good, but most Purdy teams had one of those guys, right?

They weren't going through McCaffrey and Kittle, right? So you're not completely off the wall. You're on the same plays that everybody wanted to play it. You constructed it in a way that most people weren't finding and didn't find, and now that's why this lineup got to the top. Yeah, if you see here, I just was pulling it up some, but I just sort of by ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ so you guys can see sort of what Eli did with the top owned guy.

So way underweight on Bijan versus expected probably. I guess the other thing is you could have thought he was coming in closer to like thirty five to forty. So may have been trying to play like just under the field, kind of like the Aaron Jones situation. Like, look, he's going to be around twenty if I end up with nineteen. He comes in at eighteen or twenty one. I'm not going to care either way. But Dele looked to get overweight on Schultz.

I think it was pretty clear he was going to be around twenty to twenty five percent. So he got that one. McCaffrey about the field probably thought closer to twenty, maybe a little over. Henry was about again, similar. You didn't know exactly what these guys were going to get to, but he ended up underweight on them. I guess the other way to do it here is the Delta. Just do it this way. So way overweight on DK Metcalf. Didn't work out, but just an example.

And you can see the points scored over here. Way overweight on Ja'Marr Chase. That was pretty clear cut, and I like that one. What I'd want to see, I'm just curious, because I saw Schultz and Chase... And I don't know if it's just user error, but I wish I could see by position just so I could see like by quarterback. So if my man Josh is out there watching, maybe that's another thing, but I could just be missing it.

But what I wanted to see actually is how much of, what's the best way to do this? I wanted to see if he got Stroud. Yeah, a little bit, again, not like Stroud was getting a bunch of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. I just wanted to see that and like X Hutchinson and Booth. I was just curious to see if he maybe stacked that side up, but I can't. I don't see too much. We all go by exposures now just to see. So Bijan still there.

Dalton Schultz. We talked about Henry Chase. So you can see how much of like the guys that busted they still have in the portfolio. But then it's all how you put it together. Javonte, Garrett Wilson, George Pickens. Just trying to see here now. Bucky Irving, right? Parker Washington over. Barkley over. That was brutal. The injury just to start and then came back for a little bit. Not much, but that was one thing. Trying to see what other quarterbacks. So that's what I wanted to see.

So Purdy about the field. Who else is here? Dak Prescott under the field. Ended up getting to thirteen. Could have been some late swaps as well, too, that got people there. But just to see. JSN, he was actually under the field on, but still at about seven percent. So just goes to show, got to get those pieces in the right places. Can't really see too much else that I'm concerned with or anything crazy there, Nate. So not too much else to add.

I think that's just a good way to do it though. If you are looking at the slate review and want to be able to go in and see it, um, we can look at the $555. I want to give my, my boy Lavertical DFS, him and BP both up there. That was awesome to see squirrel patrol. I mean, this was insane.

We talked about Gibbons back to, I mean, he won the Mills last year to week one, the mega last week he gets second, um, to kick off the year in the mega for week one instead of first the previous year. But then this week he gets sixth in the $555. But he also won one of the big tournaments on FanDuel for $200,000 as well.

Obviously, you don't get the FanDuel CSV, so you won't see those here at DFSOS.com or you can look into all the stuff that we're checking out. But Lavertical got the job done and we'll bring him up because I want to see here a couple of things before we look at his lineups. He played one hundred and fifty. Hundred and thirty three unique players, overweight, heavy on Mark Andrews. Like that's not an accident. JSN. Look at that. You know, thirty five percent JSN in the portfolio.

Just amazing stands. That's how you get to the top. Garrett Wilson, decent. I'm about even on Aaron Jones. The expected ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ there would have been more known. I feel like, you know, solid on this up way over on McBride as well and then way over on lock.

So talk about a way to get different and lock jsn McBride and just fill in the pieces around that you're gonna get Schultz you're gonna get um you know as a second tight end you're gonna get some other stuff I wonder how much Derrick Henry here it is just yeah twenty eight percent still so you're not playing that spot still and then deltas let me look nades just to see talked about Andrews already talked about these guys so really in on that trio which I don't even know if it hit the winning lineup I can't remember if McBride was in there or not but I don't think just one second Over on Lawrence, Drake London.

Where is it now? Let's do it by ownership. Boutfield probably thought Bijan was going to be close to fifty, so about the field there. Ended up probably being a bit surprised by thirty-six, but forty made sure he was good either way. You know, not much deltas on these besides Javonte being under. And Michael Mayer being under, Dak being under, Pickens. So the stand here was definitely not really being in on that game, right? On that Washington-Dallas game, really from any aspect.

But let's look at the winning lineup here when we go back to Slate Review. It was, or actually I'm going to pull back up this way so we can see it, Nades. I'll let you run through it though. It was Drew Locke with JSN. Schultz, it ended up getting Chubb Hubbard with the Panthers defense. It got a secondary stack with Watson and Garrett Wilson. The one-off in this one was Lamb from that Dallas-Washington game. And then the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗, Aaron Jones. What a build, man.

Just a beautiful build. I'm not sure if there would have been late swaps involved or whatever might have changed up here. But in general, I was trying to think of the money. What would have been left in the afternoon, Nades? Just Drew Locke, JSN, and CD? Yeah. Yeah. So this could have been a late swap, but probably not based on that portfolio. Who knows? I mean, could have late swapped because of Aaron Jones, thirteen points right as chalk running back there.

Watson didn't really smash, but he did do outdo. I mean. Overall, I mean, I can kind of talk through this because I just pulled it up. So, I mean, Levert did forty four percent tight end in the flex across his hundred and fifty lineups. That's the biggest thing that stands out to me on how he unlocked this. And he also flipped the build. Everybody was spending up at. Quarterback to get Dak or Jayden Daniels a part of that game.

If you look at the deltas, he said, this entire set, I'm not going to play that way because most people, when they're going there, or a lot of people, especially in this kind of field, right, with this high stakes MME, people were going to have those angles covered. And he didn't want to devote that much of a portfolio, I would assume, to that game. Hence, he was way underweight on CeeDee Lamb, way underweight on Pickens, way underweight on Javonte.

Way underweight on Terry McLaurin way underweight on Dak Prescott right so that game but what did he do he went to another game in the afternoon that is also leveraged what everybody wanted to do if they were going cheap at quarterback they were playing Carson Wentz skinny stacking him with jamar uh or Justin Jefferson right so he went to three hundred dollar more um Drew Lock and had seventeen percent of his portfolio he matched the field with wentz so when he's matching the field with wentz he's saying okay wentz I have and I'm just going to take my shot at my field lineups are better than the other field lineups but I'm going to then double down

And over over and divert a lot of my bankrollBankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗ or my entries to the other cheap quarterback which then allows me to spend up at wide receiver which nobody was doing And that's the biggest thing that I kind of took. I mean, thirty percent usage of three running backs. That was half the field, basically. I mean, twenty nine percent. The field was at fifty five, sixty percent, probably even higher in this contest because it's more projection driven contest.

And it's a lot sharper field in general compared to the twenty dollar. And it's a smaller field. Right.

So ownership condenses more so that's one of the big things that I take away here is just not getting right Drew Lock is it Drew Lock is a product of what he knew going into the slate that the competition was going to do right to unlock that so I if I had to assume his delta here he was under on Justin Jefferson as well because he was flipping Yeah, so he was under on the whole Minnesota side because – yeah, Justin Jefferson.

He matched Fields Jefferson, but then who did he get overweight on? JSN in that range along with Drew Locke, right? So that's kind of the big thing that I stand out, and then just not having – any pieces but a one-off who can do that, right?

CeeDee Lamb doesn't need to bring Dak with him because he can be that PPR guy, whereas Pickens, if he would have played Pickens here, not being results-oriented, Pickens, I think, is more of the pull the quarterback along just because it's not as much PPR. Obviously, He could do it, but C.D. Lamb's more the twelve the twelve for one hundred and fifteen or one hundred and thirty type guy doesn't need the touchdowns to hit his ceiling. Right.

So he's fine as is more of a one off in this build. Obviously, it's one hundred fifty max set. So you're not handpicking this team, but it goes back to setting up your inputs, equal your outputs and looking at his overall portfolio and where he took his stands. He was taking a stand to be underweight in the Dallas game. Then getting overweight on the other games that have a potential to match that or outdo it, which came to fruition.

The other thing I'll say that's a big time move is you got to applaud him also for just standing his ground on what his take was. Because when you have a morning lineup that looks like Chubb, Panthers, you got your secondary stack there. Schultz went off. Aaron Jones beat Bijan and he was right there with Derrick Henry.

You got to feel pretty good about your start, I'm pretty sure it could have been like Dak, CD, and then drop it down to either Pickens or a Washington guy in this spot instead. Or there was a ton of ways you could have flipped this and said, hey, since my lineup went so well in the morning, I'm just going to move it to that big boy total game that everyone says is the nuts. And instead just say, nah, I'm going to keep it as is.

And he was comfortable leaving money. If you look here and go down further, I saw a forty nine five forty nine one forty nine six four. Where was the other one? Forty eight five. Right. Like all these could have been moved around. And again, depending on how some of them do. But this is what's crazy. Sort of when you stick to your guns on this type of stuff. Forty two out of fifty caches.

So, you know, almost thirty three percent for him versus the other. And you look at it from that perspective. I am curious to like just some of the other stuff I saw. Like I want to see what some of the other players in the. Like what did mock do for his portfolio? Let's look. So he had one hundred and fifty lineups like that. That's what I want to see. So he actually cashed a big boy number. Fifty five of his lines.

He was on one hundred and eleven lineups. And what were some of his look at these Delta Delta? Yeah. Look at the Delta on Bijan. This is this is the results oriented tilting discords. Rejoice right here. Oh, my gosh. I played Bijan. He was such a terrible play as chalk. One of the best players in the world had eighty six percent of them across one hundred and fifty lineups at five hundred and fifty five dollars a piece.

And still made money on the slate and was right there to win a million dollars. Got away with it. Yeah, it's crazy, right? You got eleven point one points in it and only fourteen percent of your lineups are without him. But again, then you get the deltas on Lamb and on Dak and on Dalton Schultz and on Wilson and, you know, a bunch of different other ones.

You could see how it goes, but that's kind of the other thing you got to think about when you're setting it up. Right. What else are you in on? It's just matters as a whole. But his lineup was Dak, CeeDee, Ferguson double tight end had Henry had Chubb with the Panthers had Ja'Marr Chase, you know, had Garrett Wilson. So a lot of just good plays that you can put together and, you know, still have that stack. And that's what I talked about earlier.

Like I wonder the DAC stack pretty much would have been similar and might even have been able to have like pickings in it for La vertical, but that was just the way it played out. For example, the biggest thing on Moak, look at his flex usage. Sixty percent tight end in the flex. Why? Because value was starved. That allowed him to spend up at Bijan.

But most people spending up to get Bijan at eighty six percent of your lineups were using Aaron Jones or one of those other punt value receivers in the flex. Along with, like I said, Aaron Jones, right? So they were using either three running backs, two of those guys being one for sure being Aaron Jones.

He allowed and unlocked the ceiling of the JSNs, the CD Lambs, the DACs of the world by using the value at knowing positions that are down injury situations, right, with the tight end. Dalton Schultz. Presumed to be the Nico Collins role, right? So that's why he's sixty five percent of his portfolio, because that allowed him and in the portfolio here to get overweight on the high ceiling upside guys overall.

And just you hope that one one of the one of the lineups puts everything together. Right. I like, yeah, and I like BP here as well. This is another interesting one. And this is why I like digging into these things. And again, like I said, if you guys aren't doing this, you know, some people don't believe in it or whatever. I don't know any, like I always talk about it.

A quarterback goes immediately off the sideline and looks in at an iPad or whatever the Microsoft one they call it is. And they're looking at a tablet to try and learn from what they just did. If poker players could see every hand that every other poker player played, they would try and dig into it. They try and get as much information as possible. When you can dig in and see some of these things, you can apply them to your own portfolio.

That's why this is so powerful. Check this one out. I think this is pretty interesting. If you go... By ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ and on Bijan, it's definitely an underweight stance, right? Like it's minus twelve point three. He just capped him at forty and called it a day. But if you go back to, you know, points, let's go or actually let's go by exposure. Here's a here's a better way to show you. Panthers D, twenty three. I mean, that's on purpose, right? You got to click that in.

It's the first game of the day. There's not like anything you're doing. Your first game of the slate, part of the start of the slate. And you're just saying, I'm going to go light on Bijan, heavier on Panthers. And also look at the Delta on Chubb. So it's just like flip the build. You're already going to be in a unique spot regardless of anything else that's going on.

But willing to do that going in is just such a huge move to just flip it before you even get started, right? You're already saying, I'm going to do something that's a bit unique that flips this slate up. And then, you know, Quentin Johnston ended up having a bit of a delta there. But I like looking at it from that perspective because you'll see it. Like Michael Mayer was way up there. Panthers D. Quentin Johnston. Ja'Marr Chase.

Javonte Williams, you know, overweight, that one didn't work out. But just to see, like, some of these stances that these guys take is pretty interesting. And what did you say, too, when you said you go on mock? Yeah, yeah, click on mock and look at – so his flex usage, BP's flex usage was sixty percent running back in the flex, but forty percent tight end.

He used three lineups of his hundred lineups in this contest with wide receiver because – he built in he wants to be underweight on those value those value wide receivers the v-lays of the world the burdens of the world those guys obviously those guys aren't big chalk pieces but how did he do that look at his delta on Michael Mayer who didn't work out but he had sixty percent Michael Mayer because he knew he was playing mayor in the flex right to unlock the spend up guys at the receiver position when most people were spending up at running back again.

He hard capped Bijan. That's why he got more, like you said, right? More Chubb and that to then allow him to get a huge delta on Ja'Marr Chase, a huge delta on the other guys, right? As well. So Saquon Barkley, he had a huge delta on him, matched the field that the other running backs around that range.

So he was picking high upside leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ plays that the field

Were glancing over them because everyone was getting hung up on the projection of the points per dollar projected guys of their median range outcomes again we're playing tournaments we're not playing for median range of outcomes we're playing for ceiling and I think that gets forgotten way too much when people are trying to build lineups and understand the projection is just a guiding point those are not the guard rails that you have to follow to get to the end of the the end of the lane right that's just what you know the guard rails are what the field is doing right everyone's playing for medium projection optimizers everything like that how do you give yourself ceiling without cap uh without um kind of catapulted or cannibalizing your, your upside.

Right. And your overall potential with it without being crazy. Yeah. This is a hundred dollars single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ here. This one's interesting too. It's like a Jayden Daniels to digs with the lamb run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗. You got Derrick Henry. Again, the Chark Jones-Schultz just ended up working out. Patriots defense sort of in the mid-range. You get JSN and Lamb. You talked about it before.

Most people were capped as Lamb as their highest-ownedOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ guy when there was JSN and you have Ja'Marr Chase up there as well in some of these winning lineups too where it's like, again, look at this one. Jamar, CeeDee Lamb, JSN, and CMC. And the way you get to it is with a Deshaun – KC Concepcion with the Titans D and then, you know, looking at it from a different angle. So that's interesting as well.

But yeah, just going back to that winning lineup, it's like, you know, Dontavian Wicks, if you're not going to be on, um, DeVonta Smith, cause you can't afford them or you're not going to be on Barkley and you're going to be on a wide receiver flex as opposed to, um, flipping it around. I mean, really this should have been flipped like JSN and that, I think it was the, was that the morning or the afternoon, the Barkley?

It was the morning yeah so they should have they should have flipped this is obviously it's a single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ so it's probably a hand hand plug team from wherever the who knows built earlier um and that's another thing too people forget about but uh yeah I mean I overall I think this is this is bill uh big and again don't be results aren't you from the week before right um just because I had an inclination of Sunday night football I'm not playing five one because I think it's over owned for the potential five one ended up winning that's fine right so don't take what happened yesterday or this week or last week as concrete use it as a piece of your fold and fold it in and

Just kind of keep tabs on it and then dive into these portfolios using sites like DFS os to help improve the baseline of your foundation in your process and test it out, try it, add things here or there. Don't go in and add everything and I'm going to change this, this, and this because Tambo and Nate said it on the review. Take one piece at a time, look at it, fold it in.

Then you can start getting actionable items off of that before you just go in. Because if you add a bunch of stuff or change a bunch of stuff and you have a really good day, what helped cause that? You don't know, right? So the more you kind of look and take it in bite-sized chunks here, I think it can improve your process a lot more than just kind of going full steam ahead.

If this is something new for you and you're out there trying to get better at DFS, there's a lot of content that we do that helps with that. But folding in little pieces at a time, I think is a big takeaway as well. Yeah, I like to take thoughts from this.

And even when I was learning, coming up myself, it's like you're taking thoughts from this and then going to watch the free shows that we do and make sure you subscribe because all of our shows are free. And you can take the slate thoughts and use these little nuggets that you remember along the way. Pittsburgh payment plan has been around forever. Incredible player as well. This lineup is really interesting. Again, didn't win. That's why you don't just want to look at the winning lineups.

Like I said, I like to look at them, especially when I can look into the portfolios of them and I know who the people are and how good they are, et cetera, et cetera. You had Derrick Henry chalk and you had Andrews chalk. You also had Schultz chalk. Sure. But if you're looking at a way to play it together, this is pretty sick. Lamar, Henry, Bateman, and Andrews. You keep Schultz. You obviously are flipping the build a little bit.

So if you're not getting to Bijan, why not play Chubb and the Panthers D? And if you're not getting to Bijan, it's because you're going with, you still want a piece of that Dallas-Washington game, the PPR guy. And then you get Ja'Marr Chase. So you get like the Ravens score a bunch of points is what you're hoping for. Jamar and CD lamb crush. You get the value play that you would expect.

And then you just flip the running back and the D against the one that most people are on, which is Bijan and Atlanta on FanDuel or just Bijan in general on DraftKings. So that's like a pretty, pretty sharp way to do it. Yeah, I think the Schultz-Chase mini stack, not just being results oriented because that's got there, but Schultz isn't looked at as a tight end with the situation that was happening in Houston, right? Chase can push the game the other way.

Schultz was looked at as a $3,400 or $3,200 Nico Collins, right? You had to assume he was the most Likely outcome. The only consistent, right? I mean, people were Xavier Hutchinson, Jalen, no, these other guys that don't get playing time even in normal. Schultz has always been, he's been the one consistent.

So you look at him as a wide receiver here for $3,200 to unlock the ceiling of, OK, if Schultz is getting their PPR, which he did, right? He didn't score a touchdown. He went twelve for whatever, one hundred and fifty yards or whatever. Kind of a Nico Collins ask stat line. That unlocks you to play a Ja'Marr Chase as a one-off and things like that. So I thought that was pretty sharp. Everyone's like, oh, wide receiver one in a tight end?

That doesn't speed up the game. But you have to assume not all tight ends are equal. Not every spot is equal. There's injuries that play into it. Obviously, everyone knew Dalton Schultz was a great play. But how could Dalton Schultz hit his ceiling? Well, if Ja'Marr Chase is gritting in the end zone because he's making toe tapas, Toe tap touchdowns at the pylon mean, well, that gives you your Nico Collins PPR guy for a value on the other side that unlocks the rest of the lineup.

Yeah, a lot of good things out there yesterday, man. I think that's probably going to do it for this one. We can check out a bunch more. Noelsman won the the thirty one eighty for $200,000. So he crushes just got to, you know, look at all these things and check it out. But I think for this one, that's probably enough to go through it. Like I said, if you guys want to check it out, go to DFS OS dot com.

You can get a free trial or you can use code ship it to get half price on the founder rate. So you can take the fifty nine dollars lock in twenty nine. It's a basically a dollar a day.

There is full player profiles like I was just on that randomly like you could see uh just basically the leaderboard right now and it shows you from yesterday it's the million dollar winners and you know who's been winning the most money and whatnot but la vertical you can go in and see pretty much anything you want with his his history and background you can go see all the different sports that he plays the money that he's won across those sports for the data that's here right it's not fully not every contest is covered so don't take this for a grain of salt it's more like a you know, like a poker database of winnings.

It's, you know, he's won a lot more money than this, guaranteed. But it's just what's available to be able to dig into and find that out. I think that's really critical when you're looking at something like this, being able to find it out. I use it a ton just to have it up on my screen for the news when we're going through the shows and that sort of stuff. But check that out.

If you guys want to get access to the Stone for Ship It Nation, you can go to shipitnation.com and check it out there. The early bird promo is still on for three forty nine. Click join the nation. You can go to single sport for NFL and get either with or without SaberSim. And then for tonight, we'll of course have all the showdown content as usual with the Slate Station, the Stone 2.0 point oh with the hand builder.

If you haven't used the Stone 2.0 point oh, that's we didn't show it earlier, but this is a way you can go in and see to like you could have built it out and looked at optimal rates and said, OK, Brock Purdy. Yesterday. And then you just, you know, start going through it of what you want to get with Brock Purdy and put in there and you could see, okay, I wanted to get a high upside separator, right?

Maybe that's where George Kittle went into it. And then you knew that, you know, Schultz was just the bang on value for $3,200. His optimal rate was thirteen percent. And you start building out from there. And, you know, I like Mike Evans. So that didn't work out. But maybe that's where you get different there and you could start building, but you'll be, you'll be able to see it all here and save it in your save lineup.

So you guys want to check it out, go to shipment nation.com. All the sports that we cover are there. And then showdown will be up later. Uh, just an hour from now, it'll be hoop title and myself back here for the showdown shipper show for Monday night football. We've got, what is it? The Rams and the Giants tonight waiting on the Puka news. I think it go from there, but nays, any final thoughts from you before we get out of here?

No fun, fun, fun to break it down again. I always say it. Bankroll managementBankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗ is key. You gotta be in the game to have a shot to get all your losses back or at least some and and hopefully then set you up for continued success going forward from that. So it's OK to downscale too.

I've started to use ai to kind of analyze my process where I have results and things like that so there's tons of tools out there to help you kind of hone into what what is good at um but if you've always played the same way and and you're losing maybe maybe switch it up maybe switch to a single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ maybe switch to a five max maybe switch to a twenty maxTwenty-MaxA twenty-max contest lets each user enter up to 20 lineups. It sits between small-field formats like three-max and the largest 150-entry tournaments.Plan all 20 lineups before building any of them. Decide your stacks and exposure limits first, so the set works as a portfolio rather than 20 separate guesses.Full explanation ↗ there's a hundred and fifty max contest out there that you can get seventy five cents with a shot to win whatever twenty grand seventy grand whatever the mini max is on DraftKings.

Obviously, it's a massive field, but all of the contests, if you're winning that contest, there's a good chance you're going to win any other MME contest on the site as well. So you can at least scale then your process across and do that. So it's okay to scale it back. It's okay to take slates off. It's OK to do that. But what it's not OK is to not review your process, not look over things and just doing the same thing over and over again.

And I wonder why you're not winning, because this show told me to do that. That show told me to do that. You tried to blend everything together. Have your own thoughts at the end of the day. Use the shows and content as a guide rail to create your own repeatable process week in and week out. Yeah. And actually DFSOS has that as well. Usually you pay for that. Um, thirty bucks or more alone just for that at certain sites.

Uh, you have a bankroll management bankroll tracker. There's a quick four minute tutorial. It'll teach you exactly how to do it. But the main thing is you can track your DFS profitability, ROI, and behavioral patterns. You can upload because it's coming from your own files, both sites. You could see your own P&L, your ROI, your in the money rates, all different sports parsed out or sparsed out. Sorry, you can do it that way. And then, um, You got category breakdowns.

You can see what your monthly performance looks like, your profit heat map, all of your biggest wins, all of that and more on this site that you can go check out. So check it out, shipitnation.com. For us, dfsos.com. For that, use code SHIPIT over there. That's going to do it for this one, guys. For Nades and for myself, Totag and Tambo, good luck in your contest this week. Let's ship it!