NFL Week 1 – Sunday Shippers | Main Slate | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Picks, Plays and Process

The winning score last year, we always talk about the soft pricing and the week one. I know last year has nothing to do with this year, but there has been some stuff with the unders in week one and all these factors, one hundred and seventy nine point five to again, nothing to do with this. This year could be two hundred fifty points to take it down.

But pointing out that I think a lot of people see the week one pricing and say, oh, man, I'm going to need a million points here. Not the case last year. So it can be the same as last year as well. What's your thoughts on that? Yeah, I think, you know, not really surprising. I think a slower start to offense to start the year with a lot of these guys not really playing any preseason. So I think it definitely can be expected.

So really no surprise. Wouldn't be surprised if that was the case again today. I mean, obviously there are some spots that look absolutely phenomenal on paper. So, I mean, if I was going to Bet money on the fact, is it higher or lower than the one seventy nine from last year? I would say higher. But, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if it's right around that number. I mean, just the offenses start out a little slower nowadays without preseason.

So we're looking at like week three, I think, before these offenses are fully functioning. So not really all that surprised with the lower week one number last year. Yeah, don't mind. This is going to change anyway. Somebody asked about where you find the core reports. People catch a couple of them. Not too worried about that because if that's all you're looking for, there's other sites. But I think this is the data that people are looking for.

Our stack rankings on the Slate Station, player pools. Slate plans. You can go through the weathers on there. The show stuff will be on there after guys. So you can check all that out. We're going to be using the Stone 2.0 point Oh today, just to look at some stuff as we go throughout. And in the end, I'll pull this back up. But right now I'm going to start with you hoop and just get the grand scheme overview for the slate.

And then we'll jump into the first game, which is the bucks at the Bengals. There's a couple of things to note Gibbs. I think it's a big conversation. Michael Meyer is another conversation, but give us your first thoughts as we get into this before we get into this first game. Yeah. I mean, overall pricing is always going to be softer on week one. That's been the case forever. I mean, I've been doing this for.

Fourteen years, I'd say playing fantasy DFS week one NFL is always going to be softer and you're always going to have some pretty glaring misprices. And that's the case today because they come out early with the with the salaries. So they can't really go back and adjust for some of the injury stuff. Yeah. There's really not a ton, though.

I guess the only big surprise in the last couple weeks was Brock Bowers being out and Mayer super, super cheap, and that'll be a big discussion point like you talked about. Jameer Gibbs without Pacheco. I mean, Jameer Gibbs was always going to be a phenomenal play in this spot week one, no Davis Montgomery.

Pacheco wasn't going to have the Montgomery role there's no doubt about it so gibbs was always going to be a really strong play but you know with Pacheco out it bumps him a little bit more he's already got a cheap price tag now the projection comes up maybe three or four points he looks like an absolute smash play and big decision point uh on the slate um but nothing else to me really stands out in in terms of all right this guy's out now we have to go to that guy there hasn't been a ton of

Big news in the past couple weeks we knew a lot of this stuff uh the main thing for sure though is a lot of good spots I'd say on the slate that that standout is appealing quarterback again we always talk about looks to be very spread out that's always the case I mean it's always the case we talk about it all the time on the show man and like I don't want to beat it to death but we're going to talk about it every freaking week if there's like a quarterback that you like like to me like you rarely rarely ever want

To get off a quarterback because of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ it never gets to the point where you got to fade plays you like at quarterback because of ownership it gets spread out so much and you see that again today we'll talk about it some of these guys look like really really good players like they're going to be so highly owned then you look at the ownership And there's really not much like there's really not much ownership because it gets so spread out some really good running back plays.

I mean, there's so many like after Gibbs, like again, we know Gibbs is going to be very, very popular. So for the most part, anything after Gibbs, not much ownership. Except you go to FanDuel and they got Lloyd super cheap there. I think he's like $4,900. So that's a that's a mispriced wide receiver. A ton of really, really good wide receivers. Nobody's super expensive.

Ja'Marr Chase is the one name I think that if someone's spending, they're going to try to get in Ja'Marr Chase and it's going to be easy on the slate. And then you get to tight end it, I'd say. The only position that stands out as being pretty weak, I would say for the most part, like you have a mayor who we'll talk about, it's going to be very highly owned, but there's not too much after that.

So like, again, I think there's going to be some opportunity in terms of ownership and things like that. Nothing's really going to stand out of that position outside of mayor in terms of ownership. So you can do whatever you want defense, you know, whatever we'll, you know, we'll throw in a little defense talk, but it's not important, but a great state, great slate to start the season for sure. Yeah, Title, I'll kick it to you in a second. This one just came up, though.

I mean, just two seconds on this because we're here to help you. If you're playing a twenty maxTwenty-MaxA twenty-max contest lets each user enter up to 20 lineups. It sits between small-field formats like three-max and the largest 150-entry tournaments.Plan all 20 lineups before building any of them. Decide your stacks and exposure limits first, so the set works as a portfolio rather than 20 separate guesses.Full explanation ↗, I'm not using ten to twelve. It's almost like you might as well use twenty quarterbacks at that point. Then, you know, nineteen lineups are dead probably and one's left. So I would really tighten that up. Sometimes in twenty max, I'll just play one quarterback to three because I just if it hits, it hits. If it doesn't, it doesn't.

But that's because I have a larger portfolio elsewhere. If that's all you're playing, I'd try and still limit it to like three to five and just see what you can do with that. I was going to say like a max of like six for sure. Like you want to be able to get some different combinations with your quarterback. If you're doing ten to twelve, twenty lineup, you're just not going to have any combination.

So if one of your quarterbacks does hit, it's very unlikely that you have the right stuff to go along with it. Yeah, and it's risk versus reward. I know some people will say differently because it's like their portfolio management and all this, but if that's all your portfolio is, I mean, I prefer just to actually have a shot on Sunday. I'm not trying to pinpoint for one lineup and then it gets up there. One thing goes wrong and you're completely screwed.

Title, kick it over to you, man. Any additional thoughts adding on to what Hoop said? If not, you could take us right into the Burks at the Bengals. That's going to be the first game we're talking about. We got a good one to kick this thing off. Yeah, not really too much more to add. The mayor stuff, Gibbs, like Chase is getting the ownership because there's no JSN. There's no Puka.

I mentioned on the cast show, Two Tight Ends is viable on DraftKings today. So definitely check that out. You can one point five X and get it done just under ten minutes. But yeah, I'll take us right into the first game. Ja'Marr Chase is showing to have a good amount of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. Again, talking receiver. He is the highest price receiver. Salary soft on the slate. He gets a great matchup. They're implied for almost twenty eight points. The Bucs.

I mean, the biggest worry for the Bengals this year is protecting Joe Burrow. I'm not worried about the pass rush on the other side. Looks like Joe Burrow will have plenty of time in the pockets to find Higgins, to find Ja'Marr Chase. I'm in on both of them at ownership. I think it looks pretty good. There's Chase Brown at seven point $1,000.

I like that a little bit less, but he's showing like single digit ownership because of the Gibbs and the Bijan and stuff like that. And the passing game is getting some ownership. So in chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗, your lineup. So when you do want a piece of this game and you don't want to get to the chalk, I think Chase Browns interesting right now. I don't have as much, but I could be talked into it a little bit. After that, I'm good.

Like if you want to go Chase Brown, Bengals defense is a very contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ option. Baker can make some mistakes. Going over to the other side of the ball, not as much interest here. I actually do think Bucky Irving, though, is my favorite play on this side. Only five point $7,000. Good reports in training camp that people are worried about his health at first, and that wasn't a worry very early. I'm expecting less of the Sean Tucker. Obviously, Rashad White no longer here.

So I think Bucky can take on a bigger role. They do have Kenny Gainwell from Pittsburgh and do expect some two running back sets from Tampa this year where they're both on the field. And that, I think, is their best option if they want to win football games, getting Bucky, getting Ibuka, getting Gainwell, getting Godwin out there. After that, I don't see myself playing much Baker. I think Igbuka right now I'm going to pass on for the most part. Godwin, five point $2,000.

I'd prefer him for $1,000 savings. Maybe he can catch nine balls, but ADOT will be really short. I prefer Bucky as my favorite run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗. Maybe hope they get up early. Then the Bengals got to sling it. I was just looking it up here. Like the chase. I'm just waiting. I mean, this is definitely coming today. The Chase Brown touchdown. You you'll see it. Like everyone, there's just no way it doesn't happen. That's what's interesting.

When you get those prices, it's, I always talk about it like best ball or sorry, bet best ball, wherever people in the best ball streets for sure. This year, the, the bit.

The best buy pricing if it's like $6,900 it's just funny how that would like click in someone's mind a little bit more there's obviously a ton of options on this slate but when it's $7,100 the projections just good not great you know it's or even great not excellent however you want to look at it that is at least a thought process and then obviously we like Ja'Marr Chase so there's that situation as well so hoop I'll kick it to you first I've got some other thoughts on this game too but I want to give you a chance to break it all down obviously Ja'Marr Chase is the top wide receiver.

He's the Jameer Gibbs of the wide receiver position. You can get a lot of lineups together with Gibbs and Chase, I think in cash and things like that, as Title talked about. That's going to be a pretty standard start for people. Easy to get with Meyer involved and things like that. But for this game specifically, Hoop, how are you handling it? Yeah, I love the game. I think there's a couple game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗ opportunities on the slate.

And, you know, we always kind of go back to that conversation for multiple reasons because it does hit. And obviously when I won my Milly a few years ago, it was on a game stack situation. So I always like to point out these game stacks because, man, a lot of people don't do it when building lineups for hand building. Like, oh, it's just too many guys from one game. I can't do it, that sort of thing. But when it hits, it hits and there's no denying it.

And I think this is one that has the game stack winning potential for a couple of reasons. Like, I do have a lot of faith in the Bengals offense this year. As long as Burrow stays healthy, like, this offense is going to score some freaking points. There's, like, no doubt about it. But, like, is their defense any good? And there's a chance their defense isn't very good, so they could be in a lot of shootouts.

There's another team I happen to be wearing their apparel right now that could be in the same situation. They're probably going to score a shit ton of points this year, but can they stop anyone? And I think the Bengals are one of those teams.

So if I think their offense can score a ton – and their defense might give up a ton like you have the potential here and the good thing about this is it's consolidated offenses there's not like random a ton of random pieces that are going to be contributing on the bengal side I mean I I don't know what the percentage is but it's a very large percentage of their points this year offensively are going to be scored by three guys Chase Brown Ja'Marr Chase and T. Higgins, right?

And one of those guys is going to be popular today. Ja'Marr Chase. Like, everyone's going to be playing. I think that's a great way to explain it. The Jameer Gibbs of the wide receiver position. Like, that's exactly what it is. If you have the money to spend at wide receiver, you're just going directly to Ja'Marr Chase. But you've got two other guys. That have slate-breaking potential, and I think it is Chase Brown.

He's got three touchdown upside, and he catches the ball, and the guy behind him is just strictly a pass catcher in P-run. And then T. Higgins, who, again, if people are going to a Bengals wide receiver, they're just going right to Ja'Marr Chase.

I got these three guys, and I got the quarterback who – most people this year think could be the guy like that puts up a ton of numbers in in Joe Burrow so love this side you go to the other side I think it's a consolidated offense you got bucky cheap uh some injury concerns that title laid out uh but all kind of pushed aside like he's gonna be fine he's gonna be good to go you got ibuka and you got Chris Godwin and a quarterback that can score so I think we got the potential here for a very good uh

Environment for for DFS uh and you have really when you look at it just one piece that's going to be relatively popular in Ja'Marr Chase like no one else is going to get a ton like bucky bucca Godwin Chase Brown and t Higgins not much ownership so I absolutely love this spot if you're building a hundred and fifty lineups I think this is definitely a spot to load up on and the two to me like the key pieces yes we know Ja'Marr Chase is a phenomenal play I think it's like man the the guys here like to me it's like Chase Brown t Higgins and abuka are the three that I really want to focus in on at to me lower ownership than they should be at Agreed.

And I think this is, you know, not talking about enough. You start seeing people coming around on it. Finally, we've been talking about it on this show for years is the Jamar chasing. I know the pricing soft week one, not just on him. I mean that you could get him in with other quarterbacks and stacks and plenty of doing that as well.

Obviously Ja'Marr Chase just pops off the page, but to hoop's point on the quarterback ownership being spread out usually, and typically always it's set up where Joe Burrow is still, you know, Ten percent or lower. Maybe he gets a little higher in the higher stakes stuff, but it's not going to be much. And then you also have how many people are doubling him with Chase and Higgins. Oh, that's hard to do, though. If I want to get Gibbs, it's actually not.

You can go build tons of lineups that even get Gibbs in there, or you could just play that game a different way. We'll get to it later. I think Bucky Irving, Godwin, Ibuka, all those guys on the other side are interesting. Most of them sub ten percent. Even if Bucky gets a little steam, we'll have to see. But there's a ton of options here. That you can do today.

And I want to talk about a couple of things, but before I do, I want to say this. I love this from Aaron Smith. Sorry to cover you up their title for a second, but it says the Sunday boys are back. It's just a lot of gratitude because we do this for so many years now. It's just so fun to be able to come back and do this every single year with you guys. So we appreciate it.

But it says, Hoops grass is freshly cut and the stakes are nearing one fifty Fahrenheit. So he's talking about, you know, hoops, grass stories, the well-done stakes. He got all the inside stuff. Titles getting the brandy old fashions ready for a brewer's run and a Packers nuke knows the Wesco boy. He's got that all figured out. And then I like the last comment, Tambo, hot fire and DFS. We'll take that one today. Who knows? Who cares what's going on in Canada?

Let's just ship a million bucks. And then it's good conversion rate. The dollar's set in my favor right now. So we'll take that. Shout out to Aaron Smith. Going back to it though, a couple other things I did want to point out here. On the newsfeed, which I use a ton over here on DFSOS, it's talked about Sean Tucker. Doubtful. Somebody asked it in here earlier. And I think this is extremely interesting for a couple of reasons. Someone said it's Baker the Mills.

Baker, Baker, the Milly Maker. We've talked about this in the past as a way to flip the build. And then Ryan, our friend Ryan, EBR fan over at DFS, over at Ship It Nation in the DFS streets for golf, says, if we think it's a possible shootout, do we like Gainwell? Are we not sure? Both could catch balls. But was Sean Tucker doubtful? I like that more. And I remember this comment, and it was from like a month ago. I was going back to find it.

When Baker said he's been completely overwhelmed with how much talent Kenneth Gainwell has. And he's very capable. Like we've seen Bucky games where he's got – snake by Sean Tucker in the past and different opportunity with Rashad white when he was there, all of that. So I think it is somewhat interesting and gain. Well, I liked him when he was in Pittsburgh as well. We were using them a lot. He can catch balls. He, you know, he's electric with the ball in hand.

So I just think it's a different way to play it in some spots today. Especially like I like titles comment earlier about, you know, doing a little bit of extra for these five dollar million makers. And for the other stuff, you don't have to get as contrarian. But if you do like this game, I would be thinking about getting Ted Hurst, the third and Kenneth Gainwell in there. And it's not just to play everybody.

I'm saying, but you would be looking for those like little one offsOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗ where then you can still have.

Joe Burrow Ja'Marr Chase t Higgins jameer gibbs and then everyone will be like oh the gibbs chase chalk got there well yeah but did you play it with ted hearst iii or Kenny Gainwell well no they weren't even in my pool of one fifty all right well then we did something different and that's how I got to the top of one a million dollars so just thinking about it from that perspective I think is somewhat interesting and then um you know the doubles like I talked about so Burrow chase Higgins find a run back.

I think that's the way that I'm thinking about this game. Not too much else to add there, but definitely a spot I'd be thinking about when you're building today. If you're not going to be in on this game very heavily, I would be thinking about what, what really happens because the Bengals with at home team total, if they completely fail, sure. But I'd be thinking about that's where I'd be looking to get Chase Brown into my lineup.

So maybe it's Bucky on the other side or something that just does things differently here where it changes it up. So yeah, Um, the reason I bring that up title, and then I'm going to come back to you for Ravens Colts is because we get to Detroit and the Saints later. I think this is a difference of opinion for some, but I'll just note my two cents on it.

Now the Bengals side, the Bengals game, sorry, is in general is pretty condensed like Baker, Ibuka, Godwin, uh, Burrow, chase Higgins. We can throw the other guys in there with Bucky and a few of the others I mentioned, but when you get to like Detroit later, uh, There is a chance that with Goff, Gibbs, Amonra, Jamison Williams, Tesla, LaPorta, Jawan Johnson, Ville, Olave, ETN Jr.

Now, and I'm just throwing out the names that are popular enough that it could get really spread out where you might just not need that, even though they put up the points, possibly. This game here, if you actually think it gets close to this total, it's probably someone that you need because the points are going to be condensed in one spot or the other, at least my two cents. Anything else to add on that game? If not, take us into the Ravens Colts.

No, that makes sense. I think we spent enough time in that one. I mean, the nice thing about week one, too, we have twelve main slate games. When we're going to get in five weeks, there'll be eight or whatever when we start going overseas early on Sundays and stuff. So twelve, I mean, and most people probably playing twenty lineups or less, you're able to condense and pick more what you want and can X stuff out.

This is a game that I would not X out. Many of you guys know that I've been a Baltimore slappy ever since. I love Lamar Jackson and think he's a stud and he keeps underachieving, but I'm going to go right to this game. Both running backs, obviously JT, Derrick Henry showing half the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ of Gibbs. I think that's a clear pivot at the end of the day if Henry or JT were the highest scoring running back or even player on the slate.

I don't think anyone would be shocked and showing sub-twenty percent on a slate where pricing is pretty loose. So I'm in on both of them for sure. And you can play them together. JT can catch enough passes, has enough home run upside, both of them, where they can take it one, two plays, get in the end zone, and then the other team gets the ball right back and we can set up a shootout.

Lamar to Zay Flowers, when I'm not playing Derrick Henry, it's definitely something I'm in on. I'm going to just keep playing Zay, keep playing Lamar, and keep playing this offense. And I hope it pays off at some point this year. The thing is, you're talking condensed. That's also why I like this. I can play Lamar to Zay or Derrick Henry, and I'm not messing with any. If you want Mark Andrews as a pivot or Bateman and all that, sure.

Andrews would be the guy for me, but I'm just going to keep it real simple. Again, twelve games. I need to see Andrews still have some legs under him. And then on the other side, If it's not JT, then it's really Tyler Warren for me. And that's when people are going cheap at tight end for Mayer. And then I can go up to spend a little or to get a little different. And it's not even going up too much. Like, $4,900 is is nothing.

But I do think Colson Loveland will be more popular for four hundred more. And then you kind of get like the LaPorta for a little cheaper. So I think the ownership. Stays in check. We saw him use, they used him last year to run the ball at the two yard line. He got a rushing touchdown. Don't think that's going to happen a ton, but he's someone that could outscore everyone at the position at moderate ownership.

And then it's easy to get exposure to say Lamar or Henry on the other side. So the main five guys for me. Poop, I'll kick it over to you. Like you said, last year we got Daniels Jones right in week one. Not sure we're going there this week, but we'll hear from you what your thoughts are on the Colts at home versus the Ravens. Ravens favored on the road. Decent team total.

Decent game total overall, but the Ravens looking pretty good in this spot. Yeah, not too much more to add on to what Title said. I mean, you have two slight breaking running backs in Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor. Probably going to be hard – probably not hard, but hard-ish to play them with Gibbs. You can definitely do it. To me, I'm looking at it more of a pivot off of Gibbs.

Hope Gibbs gets like, I don't know, twenty and one of these guys gets like thirty. I think it's in play. Yeah. Probably both equally when you factor in price and everything. The one thing that stands out to me, though, I'm going to definitely just go back to that quarterback position and how ownership just gets spread out.

And you got a guy that, at the end of the day, if you said Lamar Jackson was the highest scoring quarterback and you need him on the slate, you wouldn't be surprised at all. And five percent ownership. So I need, if you're building a hundred and fifty, you just need, in my eyes, some Lamar Jackson. Easy to play him. We have soft pricing. Definitely. I mean, I'm not going to do anything crazy with it.

Like if you are hand building, I just play him with his number one guy, Zay Flowers or, you know, Mark Andrews or potentially both. Like you can definitely double stack it. But Lamar Jackson, five percent I need to be in on for sure. All reports are fully healthy. Probably some more running this year after the offense didn't look, I mean, it was fine, but a little underperforming, I would say, last year, Lamar Jackson, that is.

And then on the Colts side, you have options if you do want to play some Daniels Jones stuff. Agree, I'm not as excited as we were last year to play him in week one. Like, he was, like, not even on anyone's radar last year, and we kind of, you know, talked through it and ended up on him, and he was fine.

But, you know, the one thing that definitely – my favorite play for sure in this entire game would be just Lamar Jackson in some way, shape, or form. But, again, if I was hand-building, it would just be Lamar with Zay Flowers and hope it's them. And Zay Flowers looked phenomenal.

Um when he's healthy he looks phenomenal uh just gets wide open one of those guys that's like when lamar throws in the ball and it's completed past like how do you get that open he just gets open so I love that pairing today Man, buddy got ChatGBT fired up hard today in the YouTube chat, ready to roll, just posting all this stuff and giving his wayward analysis. I don't know. I'm in a great mood. It's the first Sunday, but take a hike.

That's just annoying. I don't want that here. Sorry. Just pasting ChatGBT and Claude stuff into the YouTube chat. Come on, buddy. It's nine thirty in the morning. Like, let's go. All right, one thing I want to add on this, then we'll move on. I don't got a ton, and you guys know with these games, if we don't love a ton, we'll go quickly. I do love stuff here.

The next game, not so much myself, but just noting it on this one, the one thing that makes it super interesting for me, and it's no homer. Everyone knows I'm a Ravens fan up there, but just to say it, LeVar Jackson, like who mentioned healthy, but it's more about all the potential slate breakers in this thing. Like Jonathan Taylor, no ownership versus guys around him, not even close. Derek Henry, no ownership versus guys around him. Zay Flowers, mediocre ownership versus that.

But I think people forget that like Alec Pierce, healthy. He's fine now. Like everyone was worried about him for week one. He's supposedly fine. He can catch forty yard passes, two of them, and boom, he's already there in the first quarter.

You've got Tyler Warren at a onesie position that could be fine uh Mark Andrews by the way I'm with title more on that side of like man is he gonna like show me something but the one thing I'll say is that they moved out Likely and they moved out kohler so it's like it's kind of the only show in town lamar trusts him and then you got guys like Bateman and jacoby lane who can just break it off where like hoop said especially in the five dollar milli makers and stuff if you're gonna get lamar and

Want to see him get his thirty plus points hope that some of it's with the running but if you can get someone in your portfolio and get the right connection whether it's lane Bateman with that separation there's a possibility you could have something there so I just think this game is a little bit interesting from that perspective and it's definitely going overlooked with many on the Bengals the the Lions game coming up soon the uh Herbert stacks later on but just keep that in mind when you're thinking about building that out I'm going to stick with you and go back to Bills at Texans.

I know a lot of people, you know, think about, uh, you know, Josh Allen last year, breaking slates. But the one thing about him is you need to get him all the way, right? Forty plus points. Then you need to make sure that other guys don't have thirty plus at way lower prices, which sometimes happens. And then did you even stack him right? Or was it just him and James Cook you need?

Was it him and Someone not named more Shakir this week now with the new team and Kincaid, and it ends up being something completely ridiculous. So what's your thoughts on the Bills at Texans? Yeah, thankfully there's twelve games where I don't have to try and figure it out against the best defense in football.

If I were to play anyone, it'd be James Cook, and that's just a sheer... I mean, how often do you get James Cook, one of the best running backs, at single-digit ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗? I don't even love it, though. I don't like really any Bills stuff. On the other side, a little more interesting, it's mainly two guys. It's Nico at $7,000. I mean...

Cj's not great but if there's pressure in his face and stuff maybe he'll just throw it up and nico's a grown man and can break his slate and then it's Dalton Schultz and he's probably my favorite play in this game three point $4,000 I saw someone mentioning yeah pivot off a mayor hoops the guy that uh that blows ears perk up when you mention that name go ahead Who loves Schultz. So, yeah, he'd be the one pivot down below.

And, yeah, he's going to be one of the main pieces of this offense, focal points for CJ in the middle of the field. But I don't like this game. Yeah, it's what you said. I think there is like some interest. Again, Cook would fit the build of what we talked about earlier with all those guys right there with Jonathan Taylor, Derek Henry. It's all in the mix. If James Cook has two touchdowns today, you're not surprised.

But Nico Collins on a standalone at $7,000, not many can get to him. He doesn't fit builds. They're not seeing secondary stacksMini-StackIn NFL DFS, a mini-stack usually pairs two players from the same game without either team's quarterback. Often a secondary group beside your main quarterback stack, it can pair a running back with an opposing receiver.Before locking a pair, describe how both players reach big scores together. Then ask whether that outcome would make an omitted quarterback or teammate difficult to beat.Full explanation ↗. They like and remember in week one, especially I actually think it's more like week one to five. Before it starts to have a lot of data come in and pricing change properly and all that stuff and tighten up, you can just play like a Nico Collins one-offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗ if you like it, I'm just saying, and just roll it.

And you may not need Stroud because while quarterback ownership is spread out, it's looking like sub-three percent, sub-two percent for a guy like Stroud. So there may not be those lineups that are needed either, and you could just need Nico. You heard Dalton Schultz. I saw you just a little perk up in the chair, just a slight one. But what are you thinking here with this game? Anything to add? Yeah, and Dalton Schultz, like, yeah, fine.

But, man, whenever I look at a roster and I see that a team has almost, like, four tight ends, it does scare me a little bit. And, like, Schultz is definitely on the older side of things. So I actually don't love him today. That shit may have sailed, to be honest with you. Mostly agree with you guys.

I mean, the one – The one thing like, man, when I see Josh Allen and I see like a two percent next to his name, like if you're building one fifty or if I'm building one fifty new coaching and all that, like I got to I have to have some. You know, DJ Moore, Shakir, Kincaid, like if you want to do it, but it's not comfortable. But two percent, Josh Allen, like I got to at least be in a little bit.

It is probably probably going to be the worst spot for them of the season on the road against a really good defense, a defense that has had success against him in the past. It's as bad as it gets here in week one. But it's freaking Josh Allen, so I'm in a little bit. Not much on the Texans. Like, Nico, for sure, you can always play him.

Like, the Davis Montgomery stuff, even for the rest of the season, like, I would be shocked if it's not somewhere close to, like – sixty forty fifty fifty like they're not going to title you were in the best ball stuff I thought that was like one of the most misdrafted guys like all best

Ball season like as high as Davis Montgomery was going like he was going like forty five yeah to me it's just too much like there's no way I think it's closer to with Woods Woods was good for him and he was good yeah and he's young and Davis Montgomery hasn't had like the cowbell role in like three four years I don't know like It's more of, like, a season-long thing, I guess, but, like, I'm not going to be as high on the Davis Montgomery stuff at all.

C.J. Stroud in the playoffs last year, I can't get that out of my head. I don't even know who, I can't remember who they played, but what was it, like, five and a half? Patriots. Yeah, that was brutal. So, out on most of this, but I got to have some Josh Allen at two percent. Yeah.

One thing that's interesting, if you're a user over at Ship It Nation, and today's the last day for the early bird and all the other specials, we won't pull it all back up. We went through it off the top. But just to note it, we put the optimal rate off $10,000 simulations that we run against the SaberSim side. And then that's where the data driven analysis comes from. Josh Allen at two point three percent projected ownership is negative leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ still on this slate.

And I think it's because of the situational stuff like we talked about it just is with all the other things going on all that people will say but you know he can get you forty he can but it's it's calculated for those events as well within the $10,000 and it still was not optimal so just to note it like for for ninety eight eight percent point five percent of the time he wasn't optimal so just keep that in mind you guys can use the stone to check that out of the Stone 2.0 point oh all right hoop we've waited long enough The hometown game.

Our boy Landa was in here earlier chatting it up about your back. Everything's lining up for a perfect storm. You got the shirt on over there with the big lion symbol right on it. We got the Lions at home versus the Saints. Almost a thirty point team total. Big favorites for the Lions. The Gibbs conversation we've had. But everyone in this game, it's unlike The Bengals spot where it's like, OK, someone said everyone's on the Bengals game.

Well, no, a lot of people have a piece from that game, but it's not everyone all in on everything. In this game, there's a lot of love. Shuck, Goff, two of the higher owned quarterbacks while it is still spread out. Olave getting love. Jawan Johnson getting love. Amin Ra, Gibbs, everything. So what's your thoughts on this game and how to handle it? Uh, yeah, I'm going to try not to get too excited from a DFS perspective, but man, it's tough.

And a lot of what I said in that Bengals game is going to be applicable here to the, to the Lions game. Like, um, you know, Jameer Gibbs, we've already talked about, we don't need to talk about it really anymore. Like he's priced at what's the price? $8,000. He's should, should get all the way his backup. Like all I got to say about Gibbs, like his backups are Jacobs sailors and backy guy.

So like, uh, they're projected to score twenty eight, twenty nine, thirty points somewhere in that range. Like you don't need to say anything else. I do like Amonra quite a bit. And this is an offense. I think there's going to be enough to go around for multiple guys to produce. So Amonra, a little pivot off Ja'Marr Chase, like Ja'Marr Chase will be more popular. St. Brown's still going to get a good chunk, but I like Amonra just as much here.

And then some of the low, like Jamison Williams, like his ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ to me is like way too low. I just want to pull it up real quick. So the exact number we're showing, I'm showing ten percent. Like, OK, so I mean, that's still to me in a game that can shoot out. I'm very interested. Sam LaPorta.

Strong place you got a lot of options here on the line side but actually I think the side I'm more interested in is the state Saints like they were competent to to end the season offensively shuck looked pretty damn good he'll run uh similar to the bangles when I talked about them like I think the Lions are going to score a ton of points but their secondary is trash they're going to give up a lot of points as well they're not going to be able to close out games uh From the passing perspective, no Kamara, I think, is big.

No Jordan Tyson out as well. So now you have an offense that is going to be a little more consolidated. I think Olave is a phenomenal play. And as a cheap dart throw, not even a dart throw, a guy that is going to be out there the entire time at three point $5,000, Vele, love him as well. Then you got a cheap tight end and Jawan Johnson, probably my favorite cheap tight end. So.

Love the Lions offense today but I think I'm more excited about the Saints they have a lower team total at twenty one so I don't think we gotta worry about ownership all that much outside of a lobby obviously a lobby is going to be very popular on the slate but um I think this game could could go nuclear so I want to I want a lot of it um like who's going to be popular in this game gibbs Olave, St. Brown, but man, there's other pieces.

Even Etienne, I think, is a fine option. Didn't really mention him, but Jamison Williams. LaPorta will get some ownership. Jawan Johnson, I think, is a good play. So you have everything here, but I prefer the Saints side just from an ownership perspective, really. We know what to expect out of the Lions, but I think the Saints, specifically Shuckstacks, are very, very interesting today. Yeah. Title, I'll go to you first. I got some additional thoughts.

Somebody said to hoop, you know, hoop, just over stack it like your Milly win. That's yeah. That's the way. Let's do it. Let's start off the season. Right. You know, I'll take another mill. Yeah, I think we all would you take another mill? Yeah, I'd take a mill. I'll take the first actual full mill score. That would be the one that I'll take. $10,000. I won't even get greedy. Yeah.

Buddy said make $10,000 today ten bands and he's I'll take that I think a lot of people do when they think about how these seasons can go by the way did Jamison Williams do like I know people call him Waymo Jamo now like isn't Waymo known for the speed limit like just taking you safely around and doing all this like people are maybe it means he's it's automatic so like automatic click and get on Jamo I don't know but anyway I'll kick it to you title your thoughts on this game Saints at the Lions Yeah, usually Hoop and I are more lockstep on main slates, different on showdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗.

I guess a little different right here. It's twelve games on the slate, and this is the game that's getting the ownership. So I just think with as much variance that happens week one with the ownership in this game, it's hard to play it.

The Jameson Williams or Jawan Johnson like they're still getting ownership so I'm struggling to get to this game if I am trying to find like a one-offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗ if if you stack it yeah I think then you have to really get different in other spots and that's how you get different your lineups I struggle to get to it as much in one-offs I think my favorite way if I was just playing like two people would be etn on the Saints at five point $9,000 and hope they run the ball control the game a little bit convert on third downs keep the lines off the field

And then just play one on the other side whether it's Amin Ra whether it's Gibbs or whatever it may be but yeah I just we just talked about Derrick Henry and JT for half the ownership who have just as much upside I get the projections worse yeah I think I just want to be underweight on the most chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ game and hope eleven oh we don't like the last

Game much so hope ten other games or whatever we can find one that does a little better so I'll have individual pieces I'm playing a ton of lineups if you see me up if you see me at the top with people in this game of course I'm going to play some but in a vacuum I don't love it to the field let me let me just clarify one thing on this game if you are hand building all right because it is there are popular pieces and it is a good point that that title makes there it is going to be popular if you are hand building do not Take Jameer Gibbs, Amon Ra, and Chris Alave with one of the quarterbacks.

Let me just make that very clear. That's a really bad decision, even if you are playing one of the quarterbacks with them. And Shuck will be lower owned than Gibbs or than Goff, so I prefer that side. But don't build... That way include valet include Dwan Johnson over Michael Meyer. Like that's mayor do that sort of thing. Don't just play one of the quarterbacks with those three popular guys and say, I'm good. Let's move on.

There's a lot of things like that for sure. And Philly Phantom asked this earlier, will you please talk a little bit about how you might go about building when fading the Detroit-New Orleans game altogether? I did catch Lions D from Leverage Lane. Maybe we get away from Mayer and punt wide receiver.

But just noting it, I want to bring that up because I mentioned yesterday, yeah, if you want ways to get different with Gibbs, one of the ways is to put them with the Lions D. Most Gibbs lineups will have at least one of Olave, Etienne, Ville, or... Jawan, right? So you'll see that where that's a thing. And then Vele, sorry. And then also you'll have the other side of it where you can do something that most don't.

And I think it's under-owned in the overall of what you're doing is I think you can just stack Gibbs with Goff.

Like if you really want to play this game in a different way, Goff, Gibbs, Amun-Ra, or Jamo with LaPorta, And then whatever you want to do on the others, I would bring it back because if you're really going to get the full outcome, the other thing is though, with a couple of notes with Detroit twofold, I already mentioned the one earlier that sometimes it can get too spread out. So it's a title's point. It could underwhelm from a DFS perspective.

You could get a big boy score in this game, Fifty five points and underwhelming DFS because everyone has eighteen to twenty two and it's just not the way it'll always work out. So there's that. But on the other note is the Lions do just stomp on it. And I remember a lot of faders last season in certain spots where they're like. Well, I only have Gibbs here. I hope they don't keep rolling this thing.

And then Dan Campbell like, oh yeah, we're rolling this thing another thirty points in the second half. So let's do that. And then everyone's like, well, they can't keep scoring touchdowns like this. Yep, they can. And he will. So just remember that as well. They're almost a thirty point team total at home. Just trying to go through some of this stuff as well. Man, there's a lot of good comments today here from you guys. We appreciate it.

Again, if you're just joining us, make sure to hit that thumbs up. Subscribe to the channel. All these shows are free. All right. I don't think Waymo known for running over random people. Maybe that's what it is. Jaymo is going to catch the ball and just run right over it. We'll see. But I don't have too much else to add here. I think you guys covered it quite well. I will say this is another one.

You're not going to get too much of like a Bryce Lance or something in your large field stuff unless you make it happen. Cool. Bryce Lance, Bryce Lance can make them dance, buddy. This is the guy you got to get in. You might want to see that. And then if you really want to play, he is like two hundred bucks more than Mayer at a different position. So you might be able to finagle your lineup constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗ around.

If you guys want to learn more about roster constructions at eleven thirty a.m. Eastern on this channel, we'll have Hammond Belman, two of the most contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ guys that you'll build in a right way to find your way to the top of these tournaments. And they're going to be talking about that at eleven thirty. So we'll keep this thing rolling. Browns at the Jags title. I'll kick it over to you. It was interesting with this one for me.

It started the week where it seemed like people were very interested in Trevor Lawrence. But then I think as the week went, and you also heard them mention Parker Washington. People always like that. But then as the week went on, it was like people, I don't really, there's not a KC guy that I love. There's so many other good games. Man, it's Deshaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence. It could be where like the two bad things combined to be the good thing.

But most people in this game are just on the Jags D really. But what's your thoughts on this one? Yeah, I mean, I'm seeing single digit ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, good prices, a twenty five point total in the offense. I'm pretty bullish on this year in the Jags. So I'm playing it. And the great thing is I don't need to play any of these Cleveland guys. We'll get to our Buckins jokes maybe in week seven when I like them or he finds a better spot.

It's not this week, so we can save that. Parker Washington, we keep saying best ball, but best ball is kind of reflective. It's a whole couple-month Sample of what ADPs happen. Parker Washington, if you were in the streets at all, just was rocket shipping everywhere. Every single report, this guy's the freaking man. He's in there at . All this stuff. No one outworks him. I'm going to play him.

I could not believe when I saw initial pricing for week one and saw Parker Washington at five, six, I thought he was going to be the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗. And clearly it's not. The Brock Baker stuff definitely changed things, allowed the punt in Mayer and Trey Tucker. So I get it. It went more stars and scrubsStars and ScrubsStars and scrubs is a DFS lineup structure where you spend heavily on several expensive players and fill other roster spots with low-salary players. The cheap players free up salary for the stars; they are not necessarily bad players.Compare the points you gain by upgrading to a star with the points you sacrifice at the cheap spot. Check whether both players still fit your lineup's scoring scenario.Full explanation ↗, but I'm definitely in. I'm just going Trevor to Parker Washington. I'm also fine going Brian Thomas at five, five and Jacobs Myers at $5,000.

I'm not expecting to see Travis Hunter really much at all, if any, at receiver. It sounds like he's just going to be playing corner, which helps the Brian Thomas, the Jacobs Myers at one percent, two percent and all that stuff. I think the upside right now, I probably would rather Brian Thomas.

To Jacobs but I'm fine with either Parker Washington my clear one yeah Trevor Lawrence has enough rushing upside can QB sneak we've seen him break plenty of slates Browns defense solid losing Mills Garrett's obviously big though a little bit worried can the Browns score enough points to push them enough but maybe they turn the ball over in the the red zone a couple times for Trevor Lawrence to get there so yeah at ownership the Jags are staring me in the face I think it is somewhat interesting.

A lot are just on the Jags D, which is kind of the setup there. Now, I'm not super high on the other side of this game for that reason. I think Fannin as a one-offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗ is somewhat interesting. He's definitely the type of guy, he's the in-betweener, right? If you're not going all the way up to Loveland and McBride and you're not going down to the cheap tight ends and Mayer and all that, you could go to Fannin Jr. Right there at $4,200.

I think that's, you know, things are cleared out for him. Might be someone that Watson relies on, but that's somewhat interesting to me who I'll kick it to you. On this game, but what's your thoughts on Jags at home versus the Browns? Yeah, I think some good points there. You know, the one thing just to add on for me, I mean, I don't think anyone played Parker Washington more than I did last year, just all over them.

And, you know, we talked about him a ton on these shows, but, if he's going to be owned and like Brian Thomas and Jacobs Myers are not going to be owned, like I'll take my chances with those other guys. I mean, Brian Thomas, very down year last year. Don't get me wrong. It was awful for him right out of the gate. It was awful for him. But he's legit. Like Jacobs Myers is a legit wide receiver. You're talking like, I don't know, one-tenth the ownership.

I'll take my chances on those guys. Not saying I'm excluding Parker Washington by any means, but if I was going to play the Lawrence stack, which I am, I think I'd just prefer him with those other guys. They're even Strange at low ownership. I do like the Lawrence stack, though, at...

Really no ownership they did a lot of times last year they kept their foot on the gas and kept going like even when they're up in spots so this is an offense that will keep going which is very important we always talked about it a couple years ago we made a ton of money with the Cowboys right we identified early on in the season that they are going to keep going dac is going to keep throwing and we shipped like three or four main slates with these dac stacks that no one was playing just because we knew they were going to keep going and keep trying to score, keep throwing the ball when they're up three or four touchdowns.

A lot of teams won't do that. I think the Jaguars will, and they showed that a little bit last year. So in on it, and then, you know, the running backs, I think Chris Rodriguez is going to be more involved than a lot of people think. So I'm not as high on the running backs here today, but you can definitely play this defense for sure.

And our guy Landa was in the chat earlier and he was kind of the defense whisperer last season and his pick today is the Jaguars D. So I think there's definitely something to that. Hoops in full form. He's been working in the offseason. He's talking about score, more, going, throwing, Dak, stacks. This guy's busting them all out. Just natural now, man. Just working with you for so long, it's just natural. I don't even have to think about that shit. It just comes out.

It's insane. Earlier you didn't catch it, but you said the Dalton Schultz ship has sailed. Oh, I caught it. I caught it after when someone posted in chat. I didn't do it on purpose. Like I said, it's just naturally spewing out at this point. Orchestrated. He doesn't even need to work on it in the shower like I do. I'm telling you, man, that is the effect of working with you almost every single day for the last... Three and a half years.

It's fun. It's the best part. And I, first profit is the man. He's always in here supporting. I appreciate that. But I disagree on this one says people should be asking people, should I do X, Y, Z after spending their own money for a condo? I don't fully disagree. Like, yeah, you should do what you feel. But I can tell you this from my own personal golfing experience.

I can just go spend the money and play the round and do what I feel, but I can't get good at it without actually figuring it out. And I actually have to pay for a lesson. In this case, you don't get to pay. This is free. We offer stuff that you can pay for.

But I think if you're trying to get better at something, getting other opinions, not being the smartest Person in the room, trying to learn and get better and attack it in a different way, just opening up your mind. That's what these shows are all about. So we appreciate you. I just think that's something that's somewhat interesting. One other thing I think that's interesting is that Mills Garrett is gone.

From the Browns and I know the sacks that he had and all that but man I still think the Browns d is playable here it's $2,100 the the Jags are the popular d you flip the build we've talked about this a ton of times going that way I like paying upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗ for d's I like getting those ceilings out of them but I still remember a ton of stuff last year what are you laughing at this guy what do you say he likes paying up for d oh geez That's that dad joke I'm not really a part of, I guess.

I thought he was a dad joke. I know, I know. Bad dad. Bad dad, he's going with. Bad dad. That's a bad dad joke. There you go. I saw the sacks last year, but I also saw a lot of other stuff that defense was capable of causing a lot of havoc. You had a lot of you know, tips and picks and things like that still. And none of those guys are gone.

So to me, if you're not playing, I guess my point is, if you're not really heavy on Lawrence and you're not really heavy on Washington and you're not heavy on Brian Thomas Jr., et cetera, you could get, you could go play the Browns D.

And then lastly, two, two, tootin maybe get two touchdowns today another way to slice and dice that Jags d $5,800 for tootin there uh he definitely had some spots last year where he annoyed you and you were like damn this guy just gets brought in at the goal line and that's what he does that's another way to go if you want to you want to look after it today so kick it back to you we'll go to the Titans at home versus the Jets um interested to hear your thoughts on this one I saw some posts on x about gino smith yesterday so give me give me your thoughts on the Jets Titans Yeah, not great.

I mean, thirty eight and a half total. I do think there are a couple spots here. The one though that definitely stands out like Breece Hall. I think he's just going to get all the work and like I think the Jets have a chance to be. Better than people think. The expectations are pretty low, but I don't know. They have pieces here.

Geno Smith is not an amazing quarterback, but he's got to be better than the shit they've been rolling with the last few seasons. I like the Jets here to win this game, and I think they can have success offensively.

Garrett Wilson, this is a guy that fifteen target upside so definitely some interest there but for me it's definitely Brees Hall some defense and then with the the Titans like I'm just gonna have to see something out of them first before I start playing them in DFS it's always gonna play anyone on the Titans side it's gonna be Wandale Robinson I think uh you know he's perfect for like DK scoring where he can get a lot of receptions um but you know not a ton here uh Brees Hall though for sure is my favorite and And Garrett Wilson, I think, is a good plan.

I think the Jets win this game. So I don't even know what that means, really. But I think the Jets win the game. It's all dudes here. So one thing I will say about the chat, that's very clear with the D joke, like this, forget the D this chat gets no P I can tell you that. If that's the best joke for you, that's horrible. I mean, it wasn't really, it was not a good, it was not a good joke.

I think it was more about the emphasis you put on like the D portion of it. Like I'll pay upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗ for the D.

So like, I'm glad you said it though because yeah I was doing something else but chad has me dying on some other things so I think the chat liked it yeah that's the one our guy jake the tank is back what's up man back back in business that's why we like being back here but yeah we can flip those though we got those rebuttals for you guys out there too with the word play so I got you back you know go get some peas stop worrying and focusing on the d let's move on don't worry about the d Yeah, I got something to talk about now.

This game here. Someone said Geno Smith winning the Milly Maker. I guess like if I'm building it out that way and in like the hundred dollar Milly Maker, the five dollar things like that, I've got some of this. I'm doing like Geno Wilson, Adonai Mitchell, maybe even some Brees Hall. And then, you know, Robinson or Tate on the other side, you can fit whatever you want. It's just a different way. You can apply this to different games if you want as well.

I'm just going to use this game for the example. Think about what people are doing with Tucker and Mayer later on when we get to the Raiders spot. It's why is that? It's not necessarily they think they're going to go off and smash. Obviously, Bauer's out, all that stuff, but it's to get ceiling into the lineup.

When you do something with Geno, let's just use this example, Geno, Wilson, Mitchell, and you pick one of Tate or Robinson on the other side, That now opens up two running back spots, a flex and a pay up tight end. Now you can go and get something else that you want and still be able to get ceiling into your lineup. So I think that's how I'm thinking about this spot.

If I'm doing it, it's a lower total, but it might be a little more condensed than you think on these two lineups. So we'll see. Title, anything else you want to add there? If not, you can take us into the Falcons Steelers. Just Garrett Wilson and Brees Hall for me. Titans are a dumpster fire. I'm not really messing there. I think Garrett Wilson has a chance to have a pretty solid year.

And yeah, Brees Hall, if he does get majority, eighty percent of the work, which I'm hoping real and solid, but I'm hoping they give it to him. He can catch the ball out of the backfield. He's still good just on a shitty team. So those two for me. Next game, you said, is... One quick question. I had a follow-up on that. I didn't mention it too much. I know the chat was talking about it.

Both these defenses, we'll go defenses now, keep the chat in line here. Both these defenses popular on both sites. Like Jets, definitely popular at $2,500 on DraftKings. Funny enough, I think on FanDuel, it's the Titans and they're only two hundred bucks less than the Jets. So that's interesting. Any thoughts on the two defenses here and how you're handling them? Yeah, I mean, Geno Smith and Cam Ward signed me up. I mean, the problem is they're getting some ownership.

But yeah, play Brees Hall in the Jets defense. That looks pretty good. Yeah, Titans as well. I'm good with both. Game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗ a little interesting, though, when you say it that way, because it's like you said, but if people like both sides of it, it's like that's where you could say it's neither. And they actually surprise you and score back and forth. So, yeah, somewhat interesting. But I'll let you take it to the Falcons at the Steelers now. Yeah, I mean, the Jets defense for sure.

Like Cam Ward just runs around in circle. He tries to make plays. I mean, his receivers, hopefully, yeah, with Wandale, with Tate, like hopefully they actually catch the ball. Last year he was hitting dudes in the hand. And they just couldn't figure it out. But Steelers and the Falcons, pretty easy catch-up game for me. Dijon is the clear play, . He's getting some ownership. He can do it against anybody, though. It's not the most favorable matchup he'll see all year.

Now with Cooper Rush, though, instead of Tua. I mean, the line moved quite a bit, so they're actually, I don't know if I would say respect to Tua, but maybe Cooper Rush is that bad. You can take it however you want to take it. If Tua was in, I was going to have a lot more interest in Bijan, but now it's tough for me. Steeler side, I don't know. What's the split going to be with Warren and Rico?

Rodgers is already coming out saying they need to get DK the football, and I think they will. So he's my favorite play at five point $4,000. Anytime Rodgers sees one on one coverage, he's still going to look off the safety and go to his guy. And that is DK. So, yeah, pretty much him or nothing. Yeah, he did say that. I think that's interesting. I've seen a little Pittman love as well. But Hoop, I'll go to you.

The interesting one to me is that Bijan is three hundred bucks less than Gibbs. You can obviously play both together. But if you were if you were comfortable with that, you could have like a secondary here of Bijan and Metcalf. And that's probably enough and solid. Now, a lot of people are in on the Steelers here going up against the Falcons at $3,300 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel. But give me your thoughts on this game. Steelers at home versus the Falcons.

Yeah, tough one, and I don't know, not super appealing. And it is just – it's so weird to me, like, how these shitty quarterbacks in the NFL that have the names, like, people still think they're, like, decent, like the Tua thing. Like, there should have been some line movement, I think, but I don't think it should have been three to four points after Tua goes out.

Tua has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL the past few seasons, and, like – is it really that big of a change going from tua to Cooper Rush I would say no uh I already thought the Steelers were winning this game regardless so like it's it's kind of irrelevant but it's just crazy to me that tua goes out and there's three to four points of line movement that seems a little wild uh to me but in terms of DFS Man, it is tough with Bijan because it's like, man, they're projected to score seventeen points.

The Lions are around thirty. I mean, literally almost double the amount of points to potentially be scored. And he's still getting like ownership. We're showing Bijan at fifteen percent. So it's not like he's an unownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ play. I struggle with it. I think I still would just prefer Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor types over Bijan. So he could end up hurting me today, but I think I'm fine with it. Steelers defense is probably going to be pretty good. Steelers are another team, though.

It's like they'll win an ugly game. They have two running backs. They have an older quarterback. Like, I think they'll just take like a seventeen to three win and be satisfied. So I'm mostly off this one. And talk about the rush back spasms and all this stuff, how it's going to be. So what do they do here? This is not the same at all, but if you guys remember from last year, we got late news on one of those slates. I forget what it was.

Remember Drake London was ruled out or scratched late, and then everyone was on Bijan, but it was like they just said, we'll just stack the box against Bijan and make your guy throw to Mooney and Pitts and whatever else you got. Yeah. This is not the same because actually this morning too, by the way, Joey Porter, I think is going to be, is doubtful now for, for Pittsburgh as well. So like people are saying like London, et cetera, but what's the plan?

Just going back to you title. Cause I'm gonna let you go into Bears Panthers next. I don't have too much else to add on this game. You already talked about it, but just curious, is there, is there a scenario there too, where you think they do just say, let's, Let's rush Cooper Rush. And also let's just make sure we've got Bijan covered and then whatever happens happens. So they might just go off like that. That could just be the case for sure.

I would, I mean, yeah, stack the box. Don't let Bijan beat you and make, let Cooper Rush make throws under pressure against good corners. So yeah, I they're, they're in for a long night, I think. So Tyler asks, shout out to Tyler. Hope you're doing well. Rogers DK pit defense. Yeah, that looks great to me. So I got nothing wrong with that. You said take us in the next game? Yeah, you got us. You can take us in.

It's going to be Caleb Williams on the road in Carolina against the Panthers. Yeah, and this is kind of like when I'm talking about the Detroit game and being under, like trying to find spots that I think could match that at a lot lower ownership. This is one on both sides. I'll start with the Bears side. I mean, yes, I'm a Packers fan, but once you get into this business, you don't really have any fandom, or at least you shouldn't.

The Bears are going to be good, I think. I mean, I think Kale Williams is the real deal, what he can do with his legs, having Ben Johnson there, the weapons around him. He can run into touchdowns. He can throw it to Burden one Loveland, one Swift, another doomsday, whatever it may be that, which is a good and bad. It's good because the ownership mainly gets spread out. It's bad because it is harder to get killed. Williams fully, right?

When you do, but if you do again, Luther Burden, another guy similar to Parker, Washington, five point $5,000. When I saw initial pricing, I thought he was going to be chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗. Then the flake slate gets flipped on its head, more stars and scrubStars and ScrubsStars and scrubs is a DFS lineup structure where you spend heavily on several expensive players and fill other roster spots with low-salary players. The cheap players free up salary for the stars; they are not necessarily bad players.Compare the points you gain by upgrading to a star with the points you sacrifice at the cheap spot. Check whether both players still fit your lineup's scoring scenario.Full explanation ↗ stuff. And he's a, Goes down in ownership, but Loveland was the number three drafted tight end in season-long stuff after McBride and Bowers. Twenty-five points they're implied for. So I think the Bears are very good.

And I like DeAndre Swift on his own as well. I have nothing bad to say about the Bears. I'm bullish on them this year in their offense. And their defense isn't going to be very good either, which only makes the offense more appealing. And, yeah, so on the other side, Carolina, Bryce Young going to be like three percent defensively. Five point $2,000 and he has two clear guys to play him with. Tet and Jalen Coker.

Six one four point $6,000 showing single digit ownership. This is how if I'm playing a Gibbs and an Olave and all that and I need to get different. This is a game I'm good at getting different on both sides with. Yeah, I think you got there. Hoop, I'll go to you in a second, but I'll just give my thoughts quickly.

I think mixing in all the guys of like Williams, Swift, Monangai, Burden, Loveland, Odunze, like I'm fine with this game because it could be a back and forth. They are going to try and score a million points. Like everyone said, that could fall flat on its face in week one. A lot of teams are trying to score a lot of points and then it doesn't happen sometimes.

But Tet on the other side, Coker on the other side, and then I always got love for Chubb Hubbard, the Canadian, but he's come through for me for $100,000 twice. Two different occasions. So I love some Chubb Hubbard. I think Loveland as a one-offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗ is also fine.

Like if you're just, if you're looking again, I go back to it all the time, but like the Warren, the Mark Andrews, the Loveland, I think people always assume when you go tight end, it's just automatically to stack them up and roll up from there. I think in stacks, great.

But also if you just want to play Loveland and not play McBride up high or the cheap guys down low, You could just play Loveland or play Loveland and Coker or Loveland and McMillan. These guys aren't expensive enough where they're going to require everything. And McMillan at $6,100 is a spot where if he goes off, it'd be nice to have Bryce Young with him because Bryce Young probably crushed it. But Bryce Young is going to be on two percent of rosters.

So it's like, is everyone going to get that and everything else right? It may not be the case. So you can just have Coker. You can just have McMillan, things like that. What's your thoughts on this game? Yeah, pretty much agree with most of what you guys said and like I want to be ahead of the curve on the Bears offense. Uh, for sure.

I mean, I believe in Ben Johnson, uh, obviously seeing everything he did in Detroit and think this, this is a year that could absolutely go off. And, uh, I thought they would be more popular and you're getting everything, everything, everything, everything, everything, everything, everything, everything, everything, and to me, that's too low on an offense that, you know, is trying just to score points. They want to score as many points as possible.

Now, often all offenses do, but like Ben Johnson is an offensive minded guy. Um, Caleb Williams, Burden, Adunze, Loveland, I think great options. And then on the Panthers side, you have runbacks and, you know, McMillan, Coker, and someone put in there about Waller. I don't even mind Waller as like a dart throw thing, but I'm not as interested in the running back situation. I think both teams are going to use these guys closer to a split.

And with some of the, the, But situations at running back, I think you're going to need a really big number at running back today. I think the number is going to be big. You've got Gibbs and you've got some of these other guys in really, really good spots. So not as interested in the running backs, but both passing games for sure at sub-ten percent. Yeah, somebody asked for this too. We'll go to it quickly. Said the Burden Odunze health update.

This is why I think the ownership is lower. Like Title said, when he saw the Burden price tag, he thought for sure he was going to be popular. I think the reason it's not is because of these so-called injury situations these guys had. They're fine. They're playing. They're good to go in my eyes. If they didn't have any of the preseason injury stuff, I think they would be way more popular than they are.

Yeah, I was trying to go back even further, but like, because there's so much late news, this hasn't updated right away, but it says like a day ago, already was feeling ready, despite the questionable tag, expects to play Sunday, good to go. And now we've had like a couple of different sources, you know, obviously good to go, expected to suit up, expected to play. Everything's good with that calf issue.

So we'll have to wait and see on how it actually plays out, but good to roll for sure. So. Let's see. Buck ninety nine. Where did you just go? The bathroom. You paid. So I'll let you know. First bathroom break of the season goes to a title and not who that's. Oh, man. You know, they say you'll be tries real. Obie tries real name. No, you'll be tries real name. No limits. This guy got two bucks just to find out where you went right now.

That's nice of you. Beautiful. Beautiful family, the three kids. Yeah, I mean, it's six a.m. So that's when it's going to be over here and we're doing these shows. My stomach, yeah, and I was out last night and stuff. So, yeah, my stomach's not feeling the best. All right. Anything else, Hoop, you want to add on that last one? If not, we went through it. We gave them what they wanted. Let's go to the Packers at the Vikings. Oh, yeah, not a ton.

I don't actually. So you got the Marshall Lloyd situation like way too cheap on on FanDuel. $4,900 going to be very popular. I think he's still in play on DK at. Let me see. Forty eight. Forty eight. There was some weird talk about hot hand situation, blah, blah, blah, but I'm still somewhat interested. You know, my favorite play in this game is definitely Justin Jefferson. I mean, you look at it. I'll leave that for, for Nades. Where's he at?

He was here. Cause he had a good call. That was a big upset. Yeah. This is third, what? Our third show of the season. Yeah. Third show of the season, right? And I haven't had a bathroom break, so maybe my bladder's growing. I don't know if that's good or bad, or maybe I'm not drinking enough fluids. Who knows? But it was the first show I took off, and everyone thought it was bathroom break, but it was temperature adjustment, if you guys remember that.

Everyone thought, for sure, hoops in the bathroom, but I had to adjust the temperature in the office. But did anybody pay two bucks to find out where you were at? No, that's... That's the kicker for sure. That is definitely the kicker. The two dollar dollar. Step your game up, buddy. We got to figure it out. I'm going to get up. I want to up that. I want to up that a little bit.

Next time I disappear, I would like a five dollar donation to find out where I'm at. That's why you get none. You're greedy. Yeah, you can't ask for it. You can't ask for it. The only way I'll admit to the bathroom break is a four ninety nine or above. If you do want to pay nineteen dollars, though, spend your money in a better way. Up it up. Go to the site. This Person asking about the link to the five dollar with the code and everything.

If you go to the site and click join the nation, it just drops you down to the pricing. It's under the core one hundred all access. It says five day trial as opposed to weekly for that one. So just check that out for that. Okay, cool. All I needed to know to finalize lineups. So he's up to four bucks now. So your title, really, you just should step out of the room more often.

We'll be rich by the end of the show. I interrupted you, Hoop, though. You were saying Jefferson. Justin Jefferson, for sure, I think is my favorite. I think a lot of people would say that, but I think he's a legit play here today. What do you got? Ja'Marr Chase, ownership. Amonra St. Brown, for sure, ownership, I think.

Uh Jefferson could come down a little bit and uh I think he's a really solid option I don't have a ton of interest in like the the Kyler Murray to me I look at these pat the Packers Vikings game and I think maybe like low scoring so I'm going to be under on this a little bit um outside of Jefferson and you know lloyd on on FanDuel is kind of like a free square at $4,900 What a first game of the season for you, Title.

I should have even went to you first. Maybe it was because you were coming back from the bathroom or I just forgot it. But I will say, Packers at the Vikings is your spots and your guy, JJ, is here. So what are we doing with this game? I know it was sad. Usually I like rocking my JJ jersey to start us off for the year, but I'd get absolutely flamed with all this Packers stuff in the background.

I still like him in DFS and he is my, he is definitely my favorite play. I'm kind of worried about the Packers secondary a little bit this year. Vikings are going to be good. I mean, their skull chance will be going crazy. The defense is solid. They got to protect love. Now it's Lloyd back there. The nice thing about the Packers, at least, is Watson, Reed, and Golden. Without Romeo Doubs, you're going to see mainly the same receivers.

This isn't the week, though, that I'm really going to stack up the Packers just in the future. Lloyd, better play on FanDuel than DraftKings. Ownership will reflect that, though. You just don't really need $4,800 this week. But when you are fading Mayer and paying up at tight end and wanting to play Chase and all that, I think Lloyd is a good option to flip the bill. People spending upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗ at running back. You go down. He's still a starter.

Um and single digit ownership but kyler to Jefferson just Jefferson I'm good with kyler though again I'm a little worried about this Packers defense kevin O'Connell system he can use his legs we always know he's a great DFS player so usually or mainly just the Vikings Jefferson and then you can add kyler if you want him Man, I'm going to go with the Golden first touchdown for Nades. First TD score. It's coming through, right? It's Nades' year.

He's dunking on our ass right away when it happens. He could get a hot start this year. He doesn't have the head-to-head with Hoop to kick off his season. I think that put him on a bad path last year, you know, the week one head-to-head.

Where uh nades is in there grinding the lineup for you know you just uh you just real life parlay because he had you going to the bathroom first and he had that you were going to mention that on the parlay but you don't title already ruined it it was it was scripted in Vegas put the call in so sorry nades there's the parlay down love this though g fiverr $2,000 six is my six-year-old just came and sat down and said who are your buddies on the computer he said hi to you thinking you could hear him what's up buddy My son is six as well.

So I got a little love for that. And like I said, Yobi Trice, real name, no limits. This guy's dropping ten bucks now. For the record, I have four sons. My fourth was born in May, actually on Mother's Day, which was cool because I didn't have to buy his mom anything. He was the gift. Thoughts on Lane from Ravens? Lane's ahead of Bateman from every indication throughout the summer. Really good camp.

So if you want a way to play that game and get completely off the board, he's going to be wide receiver two and he's $3,100. You can do worse, I think. But that's awesome. Congrats. Four kids would always be was always what I wanted. My wife wants to. So I'm praying for three. Yeah, that's crazy. She updated to two, huh? She's always been two. Oh, I thought she was down for a little more. No, but three. Yeah, now she's warming up to three.

Once you hit the ten... Yeah, hoping. Once I hit the $10,000 today, then it's a little easier, right? Not even the Mills. I'm not kidding. This guy has it right, though, because both my kids were born in May, and somehow I think I still had to... You can produce a Mother's Day gift. So this guy's good. And I hate I hate I hate picking out gifts for people. It's like the hardest thing.

So maybe I should have had a couple more kids. And, you know, the tradeoff would be phenomenal for me. I'd have a couple more kids and not have to buy gifts. I'm into that for sure. I hate buying gifts for people. I'm so bad at it. This is what I hate. I hate vans. So I can't be having four kids because I ain't getting no van. My wife hates it too. No, but you can get the Grand Highlander or whatever.

Yeah, you just got to get a big SUV, man. They're way better than the vans. And Nades, don't worry, man. You'll get a chance to rebuttal because six o'clock today with ham on the sweat down. I hope you got it easy on. I mean, we took it easy on Nades like that was that was nothing that was so soft. I mean, he's been stroking to Golden for I don't even know how long. And then I didn't get to finish the head to head brand.

So he's he's lucky. Yeah. This Packers Vikings game, I'll just say that it's really hard to pick. I know we made fun of the Golden thing, but just I'm picking between those receivers with Watts and Reed and Golden. And then, you know, Lloyd, like title said, the slate just kind of doesn't dictate that you can put it in different places. I think Lloyd is also more interesting on FanDuel. He's basically the same price on FanDuel as he is on DraftKings. And it's, you know, different.

Prohibitive pricing over there in some cases versus how DraftKings is set up this week. So still soft, but a little bit different than what you see over here. Jefferson with Kyler, I think is good if you want to run it back. But this is the type of week, like even going back to the Jacobs Lane thing, if you just play Lamar and Lane, and then just fill it out with chalk. And that's what gets there.

It's like, you don't have to just fill it out with chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗. I'm just saying you could. And people will just be like, whoa, you got all the chalk in there. Yeah, I just played the best options, but you didn't play Lamar and Jacobs Lane to make it work. You can just play Kyler and Jefferson.

And figure out the rest elsewhere if you want, and just not have to think about the triple stack with the run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗ with this in week one when there's thirty value plays per position, it feels like. You know what I mean? There's so many quarterbacks, there's so many running backs, so many wide receivers, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So moving on, Hoop, I'll go back to you.

Commanders at the Eagles, another one that is going a little bit overlooked, like Barkley not getting a ton of ownership. DeVonta Smith is kind of getting that ownership of like, Zay Flowers, Parker Watt, mentioning him but not playing him enough. Jalen Hurts is there. But again, this is like the Jacksonville-Cleveland spot. Nobody wants to commit to the bigger team that they'd like, the Eagles or the Jaguars earlier, because of the Commanders or the Browns earlier.

There's nothing they really see on that other side. Yeah, this is a tough game for me. It's like I just have... No read on it whatsoever. Like I could get it. Like I could understand if you made the case for it, don't get me wrong. Like I, the, the pieces are there like Daniels McLaurin, you know, Stefan digs, they got Chig at, at tight end on the Eagles side could be consolidated offense with, you know, Hertz Barkley, DeVonta Smith.

Like, I could be talked into this one, but I personally have like zero read on this whatsoever. So I'm going to have to pass it on to you guys. I just don't, I'm curious to see what you guys say about it, I guess. And I could be persuaded to go a different direction. I just have zero read on it. So I'm going to leave it at that.

The thing is title, like when AJ, AJ Brown getting out of town and then obviously the unfortunate injury for him to start the season, but just, you know, looking at it from that perspective, I think, you know, maybe it's baked in some, but like, you know, it's, it's baked in, but then people are just talking about it. I don't think they're really being about it. And what I mean by that is like Barkley, very Barkley at $6,900.

That's a spot where he could go off today and people were like, what were we thinking? Not being heavy on him at $6,900 at home against the Commanders. And then the Commanders down as well, too, on some of the guys on on their side of the ball. So just think about from defense perspective, et cetera. So if you look at DeVonta Smith, another spot here, $6,600.

And also don't forget, too, I know they got Makai Lemon, but they also picked up a guy that we used a ton last year, your boy, Dontavion Wicks. He came through for us on the Thanksgiving slate. He came through for us in a couple other spots. He's $4,100 on this slate, too. So you could stack Hertz, Smith, Wicks, Goedert. You want it? You don't again. Don't have to run it back. I think a lot of people are like, oh, need to make this happen.

Need to make it move. They could just score thirty points and those guys could just be part of it. Yeah, absolutely. I have a lot more interest in the Eagles side than the Commanders side, for sure. With Diggs now in the picture, is it going to be Croxy Merritt and White? How's that split going to look? Jayden Daniels can obviously use his legs. I just think there's... Like Terry McLaurin by himself would be my favorite way on the commander side.

Other than that, I want to see how things play out. And it's not the easiest spot on the road in Philly, implied for a little under twenty points. Eagle side, though, for sure. Saquon at fourteen percent. I'm good with it. I do prefer JT and Henry in a vacuum in that similar tier when spending upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗ at a... Not a contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ running back, but someone not named Gibbs. I'm good with it, though. Davante Adams Smith is my favorite, though, at six point $6,000. No A.J.

Brown in town. Put on a muscle in the offseason. The clear, clear wide receiver one now. Yeah, Wicks is solid. Lemon. We'll see how those two pan out on a twelve game main slate. It's going to be a wait and see approach for them. If I'm playing hurts, I mean, they're playing them with Smith or Goedert or both. I like the game. I like the Eagles side, but I don't love it. It's mainly the ownership stands out. You can play Gibbs around it.

You can play more chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ stuff, and it's low enough owned. But, yeah, I'm kind of like Hoop. I'm more torn on this game than, I guess, the field. I don't like the Commanders side, though. Yeah, I'll go back to Hoop in a second there. Somebody asked, how do I get the ship at Avatar? Anybody can rock it, but to get part of the Winner's Circle, you got to be a member. Anything with a SaberSim plan, including the early bird special.

There's a lot of other sites, other shows on, things like that. I don't think any of them are giving away $45,000 in cash and prizes. So if you want to get in with the nation and get into ship at games, you can also just click this at the top and find out all the details. But there's still time to get in. But you go to Winner's Circle and you click logos. And it will drop you right down to the two.

I prefer the one on the left, but it's to each their own. I'm a gradient guy, if you will, but both logos, more than fine, and both are in play when it comes to what's required for Winner's Circle. Hoop, did those thoughts freshen you up for anything more you wanted to add to the Eagles at home versus Commanders? Yeah, I think...

Eagles, what I took from it and what I would Likely do is play the Eagles, but I just don't think I need to force a run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗ in that situation. I think you might have said it with Barkley. At the end of the day, if Barkley is the guy you needed, would you be surprised at all? No. He has massive upside. DeVonta Smith, Goedert, there's ways to play it, and I think I'd play it probably without forcing in a run back.

I like what you guys had to say there. Someone mentioned, too, in the chat, Goedert. He's another guy that fits the same as I mentioned with Warren and Andrews and Loveland and all those guys as one-offsOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗. If you're not in this game, you just want to pick up a piece of it. He's $4,100 at a different position than, say, like when we get to Trey Tucker is $4,000 or wait. Wix could be the same thing.

If you got four $4,100 left instead of Tucker at $4,000, you could play Wix like there's a couple of different ways you can go about it.

This is the game though title I think a lot more people will go about playing and that's the Chargers at home versus the Cardinals Herbert McConkey Quentin Johnston other side McBride and then of course the reason I'm going to you first we got randy moss jr in Michael Wilson everyone thinks we probably talk about marvin Harrison he's but no we're talking about not mazda marv we're talking about uh Michael Wilson Absolutely. That's for Eddie Moss Jr. I mean, yeah, stone cold.

That was honestly one of my most memorable moments. I was thinking about it maybe yesterday. Like, what was one of the most memorable moments of last season? I think that was definitely top three for me. Because the best part about it is you just said it like so nonchalant, just like going along with it and compared the dude to – Randy Moss. I mean, if you just watch the games and, like, you didn't see the number or the name on the back, you would think so.

I mean, what did he do when I say it? What did he do? Like, lost three guys for a touchdown. The dude's the freaking man. So, yeah, we'll get to that side in a sec. Because the Chargers are the ones that everyone wants to play. And rightfully so. I'm going to play them. Like, I like this chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗. And the chalk's different. This chalk's a little less chalky than the Detroit stuff. But I like this one more.

I mean, picking on the Cardinals is going to be a print fest all year. This team is absolutely atrocious. The Chargers and now Mike McDaniel calling the plays. They're going to absolutely shred this Arizona team. And I think it's going to be relatively concentrated. I think it's going to be Ladd and QJ mainly at receiver. And it's going to be Hampton at running back. At least that's what I'm hoping because those are the four I just want to jam today. Lad, QJ, Herbert, Hampton, call it a day.

And then going to the Arizona side is where they're all really, really low-ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. I mean, Trey McBride's even showing really low ownership. So when you do stack it up, then you think that they're going to be playing from behind. And I want to play the Cardinals when Jacobs Brissett is playing. I don't want it. They just got the rookie out of Miami. I don't know why I'm drawing a blank on his name, but it's going to piss me off, so I have to look it up.

Carson Beck. There we go. Before I even typed it in. So I want Burnett. I mean, Burnett gets the ball out to his receivers and they can get down field, make plays. And in the fourth quarter, when they're down twenty one, you still get the same amount of points in garbage time, which we saw all year. So even though the Chargers are chalky, I like this game more because the other side is completely unknown, whereas the Saints, it's at least pretty hard to find it.

So, yeah, Michael Wilson is the man. I'm playing him. He's still too cheap. The props are bad. Ownership's nowhere to be found. He's getting a manual bump in the runbacks. I'm fine with Martin Harrison. I'm fine with Trey McBride. But, yeah, that side's going to struggle. It's mainly I think you're playing for second half garbage time. And Wilson at one percent is the way I'm going to cut in to the Chargers that are chalky. But I think rightfully so. They're implied for almost thirty points.

I agree on a lot of that. And also a couple notes I'll say is that one, if you are running it back, the good news is all the runbacks are completely unowned pretty much. So that's the setup if you're going the Herbert side. But you can go Herbert, Hampton, Ladd, QJ. You can mix it up. They got tight ends there that you can use as well. So I think that's somewhat interesting.

But I also think a lot of people are trying to force the run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗. And I noticed this, it looks cool when it's like Herbert McConkie, Johnston and McBride, that's definitely a fun lineup and can get there for you in a big, big way. It sets you up differently on this slate as a whole, but if it doesn't work out for you and you're like, man, it's kind of McBride dragging me down.

I'm fine with just not using that and going somewhere else and just saying, look, I want Herbert McConkie Johnson. I think McBride is going to drive this game or maybe it's Wilson or maybe it's here or whoever does push this game enough. Great. But because they're almost so unowned anyway, and there's just other plays that you'd feel better about or different spots or whatever it might be. I would be very comfortable just switching it up that way. Who, what do you got?

Yeah. I mean, it's a good spot. I was for the Chargers, McDaniel there and everything. The offense should be in phenomenal shape. Uh, The one thing though, for me in this game, like you, I think you want something on the Cardinals side, just with, with Harbaugh, like they get the big lead, you know, he's totally fine just shutting it down and they have three running back. So I think he comes in and says, all right, this is over. We're done. Let's move on.

They have three guys. They'll use that running back. So I think I want to run back. Like, I think I want one of those Cardinals guys. So if you are someone that puts rules in, like if I'm stacking the Chargers, I want something on the Cardinals side and it's McBride, Harrison, Wilson. I think they're all, uh, fine options. McBride for sure. Like people are just naturally going to be trying to go cheaper at tight end.

You got the mayor play, which we'll get to next McBride, uh, pretty darn expensive compared to him. I mean, you will, and just overall on the slate, you look at the salaries, like you got McBride at six, the eight hundred at tight end. And the next most expensive guy is, uh, Loveland at fifty three. And then you go down to forty nine with Taylor. So, uh, You got, you know, fifteen hundred dollar drop and a almost nineteen hundred. Down to Tyler Warren.

So you have a spend upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗ to be somewhat different sort of play. McBride showing we haven't met five, six percent. Like that's insane for a guy that is probably the top tight end in the league and can absolutely nuke a slate and already has a connection with his quarterback. It's not like this is just a random situation where, you know, they need some continuity and they need some time to work like McBride.

At a $6,800 having the connection percent I think he's a phenomenal run back and yeah it should be relatively concentrated like Herbert McConkey and quentin Johnson and then I don't mind throwing in trey Harris I mean there's a lot of good talk uh around him in the off season so I think you can throw him into those uh stats as well um did I just become the last guy on this uh show to take a bathroom break I'm trying to get two bucks, man.

Wow. Imagine what would that have paid preseason before we started our show? I know you can't wait to go now. Hoopa's holding it so hard. He's like, oh, gosh. I'm going to piss my pants before I go for a passing break. I can promise you guys that. You know what's crazy is I don't think I've ever left a show to go for one. And now it's like, you know what? Title started it. I'm going to do it. And I knew you had McBride.

I was like, this will be at least time for me to go and take a piss. So I'm glad. That would have paid a lot. Like, no joke. Like if there is a dummy line or some sort of line out there that I was the last guy to take a bathroom break. Third show of the season. Like insane, man. You would have made some big bucks. And what about this? Poop, twenty four. It's going to be a number two. So that's why he's waiting.

All right. So, OK, we're good on this game. We've got the final game of the slate, guys. We've got the Dolphins at the Raiders title. I'll go to you to start. This is. I don't know, like I'm hearing different things. I know it's interesting, but if you look at our stack rankings, there's some talk there. And then you've got like, okay, if I'm going to play Mayer, how can I play him differently? Or what are some things that I can do?

So give me your thoughts here. Raiders at home versus the Dolphins. Yeah, it was unfortunate seeing the Brock Baker stuff for a lot of reasons, but it really changed this whole slate. Like the Trey Tucker, Michael Mayer stuff. And this is why we're seeing the Stars and ScrubsStars and ScrubsStars and scrubs is a DFS lineup structure where you spend heavily on several expensive players and fill other roster spots with low-salary players. The cheap players free up salary for the stars; they are not necessarily bad players.Compare the points you gain by upgrading to a star with the points you sacrifice at the cheap spot. Check whether both players still fit your lineup's scoring scenario.Full explanation ↗ and some of those mid-tier wide receivers and even running backs aren't getting as much ownership. Why Gibbs? Is able to be even higher on and Ja'Marr Chase because of this.

I mean, mayor's still mayor's implied for forty one and a half receiving yards. Trey Tucker, forty six and a half. Both of those, the two highest in this game. Mayor, the most receptions in this game, four and a half, a little juice on the over. I mean, that's good. If he's got right there, five balls for forty two yards, you're looking at a little over nine points. Not great in tournaments, but that's like his median outcome right now. I'm going to play a lot.

I think at $2,900, you can't drop a better spot for the Raiders. I mean, they're still favored. They're at home. Dolphins are going to be really bad. I'm going to play it and just move on. Man, the really interesting one is Ashton Gentry. Obviously, I mean, people thought he may be towards ACL or something. Just found out it was an ankle. Now he's going to play week one. He's $6,600.

If there was no injury worry at all in this in the preseason, he just went right in week one healthy. I think he'd be higher owned. I think he'd be one of the best plays. Like the Dolphins are so bad. And Jenty's going to get the best vital level year at home. And now without Brock Bowers with Kirk Cousins back there, don't you expect him to try and run the football and make some easy throws?

That's what I would do so I am going to play a good amount of genti at low ownership and on the other side I think a-chan's one of the best plays on the slate he can just get it done in so many ways uh and yeah with uh Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell and leak Washington like that's who the res that's who Dolphins are trotting out at wide receiver get the ball to a-chan he is their best receiver he's their best running back he'll do it all in this game Yeah, it's relatively chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗.

Again, Gentry, I think, is the way I'm going to get difference. Raiders defense with Gentry is something I'm interested in. And then Mayer, Trey Tucker, sure. I'm not playing the quarterbacks in this one, though. Nate Nailor, shout out to our guy, man. You know, get the Nailor Cousins connection. But I don't think anyone's clicking those guys. Like I've heard mention of like Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell, Nailor, some of those options on both sides of this game.

But it's when people get stacking it, I think it just becomes Cousins, Tucker, Mayer, and then they put A-chan. And I don't really have a problem with that if that's where they're going. You know, you did hit on this. Our man Beetle Bane, he always is supporting. I appreciate that. Says, you know, people are talking about you know, super fragile, but I can't find myself getting less in the field.

It's really not even about him as the play because typically like chalk tight ends don't work out and, and as a cheap, sorry, chalk tight ends specifically. But if you're looking at it from this perspective, it could be, it's what the other people do. It's like the eight points. You know, if you get six to eight points, that could still be phenomenal.

If you now get four guys with thirty plus instead of three guys with thirty that's that's the spot if there's going to be a bust in your lineup that's the spot where you want it to be a guy that costs you nothing and is you know the tight end position it happens all the time where the tight end bus and you're still fine you can still make money are you going to ship them Milly if if mayor goes out and gets zero no but like in other contests it can work out totally fine uh so that's just another thing to consider for sure I think it's a good point um go ahead Oh, do you want me to just go into the game?

I'm sorry. I kind of took your thunder. Yeah, yeah. I agree with what Tyler – the main point for me with this game is these running backs. And for both of them, it's probably the best spot of the season. Like these teams are terrible. They're not going to be good. And their week one matchup is the best. I think A-chan is – let me pull up the ownership because I think it's lower than what people think it's going to be. You got to imagine.

Seventeen point four I think it's gonna be lower than that and there's so many other options you got the gibbs play where we know he's going to be massively massively on yeah we're showing other spots are showing higher I think it comes in lower we'll see either way it's the best spot they've talked in the preseason willing to give this guy like what was the number they said like forty touches or something like this is the best spot for him I think he's a phenomenal play today phenomenal play When you take everything into account, look at the past catchers, look at the guys on this team.

Like he is, he has the potential for eight to ten catches. He's going to get the goal line work. He's going to do everything out there. Love him.

And then Jeanty on the other side, like everyone, you would have thought if you went on Twitter, after that or Twitter x whatever you call it after that injury you would have thought the guy died on the field like you literally would have thought he was dead and now he's playing in week one and it's again for him the best probably the best spot he has all season long has to be somewhat close to a hundred percent I think he is a really really good play uh and then you look at the ownership yeah like eleven ten to eleven percent like Both these guys are – it's the best matchup they're going to have.

Michael Mayer, I'm fine with it. The one I'm not – I'm a little hesitant on is Trey Tucker, if he's going to get the cheap wide receiver tag that everyone kind of goes to. I'm not as in tune with that or on board with that, I should say. Eleven, we're showing like, yeah, almost twelve percent. There's a lot of cheap wide receivers you can play. And really, with a lot of lineups, you don't even need it because the salary is so soft.

So he's the one play in this game that I'm not as excited about. Mayer for sure. And then those running backs, I think, are really good plays. But HN for sure.

Yeah, and you talk about it all the time too, Hoop, but in SaberSim, you could just take our projections, and if you feel before you run it that it's going to be Nailor instead of Tucker and just flip their projection, you're not like you had to go figure out everybody else that you robbed the projection from.

You just said, I think it's going to be this guy instead of this guy, and then it's going to show up, you're going to get more of him, and you just happen to have that. Not saying that's the move, just noting that you guys can do that stuff if that's how you feel about it. So I think that's kind of something we've always talked about on this show. I think it's important to consider.

Title any final thoughts from you on this slate as a whole I think we've covered pretty much everything feel good about where we're at going into it we will have ham and Belman coming up at eleven thirty eastern once the inactives hit and talk through position by position for contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ constructions which is going after the top heavy prize pools on both DraftKings and FanDuel the big five dollar millies all that stuff any final thoughts from you title before we get out of here Yeah, no, I just think circle back to everything.

We go game by game, who we like and all of that. But Daily Fantasy, it's a salary, it's an ownership game. It's how many people are in your tournament. These five dollar contests on both sites today have hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people. Just imagine sitting at whatever home stadium you are as NFL fans. And then multiplying that by like six, seven, that's what you have to do to beat everyone.

So the point of this, what I'm saying is, okay, when you play Gibbs or whatever that is, you have to get off the board somewhere in those very big contests. If you're playing a two hundred man single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗, you should build a completely different And then don't forget about late swap with twelve games. That means that we have four in the afternoon window and four solid ones. That's going to have some ownership. We talked about Mayer H and the Chargers stuff.

There is ownership in the late games. So depending on how your noon games are going, you should be changing your teams, whether it's having to play catch up. Now you can go a lot of low own plays to chalk because I'm doing really well and I don't need to play catch up and all that stuff. So. I mean, enjoy it. Football on our screen all day. It's my favorite days of the year. Yeah, good luck to everybody out there. Prizes are massive.

And do get those Shippenation logos if you do want a chance at the Winner's Circle and Shippenation games coming up later in the year. You do need a logo. When you get to the top, you get some benefits for free for just rocking with us. Yeah, it's actually a bonus way as well. In the Ship It Games this year, we made it for the additional benefits of Winner's Circle.

You already get the the $1,000 wins, even though I saw a bunch of people in the CFB streets last night getting wins. Those count. Those are in on the regular Winner's Circle. Now, when it comes to Ship It Games, we added another bonus tier. For the week. Sixteen bonus contest, which will be where you play off for the final five Golden ship. It's but the first three are happening this week. You still have time to get in. The link is pinned in Discord.

Everybody is eligible. I'm clicking too many buttons around here on my screen. Hopefully that didn't mess things up, but every all access and NFL only member is eligible. Just go to shipitnation.com. You click join the nation. There's the five day trial. Everybody talked about is right there. There's the monthly all access. There's a lot of different plans you can get in on.

And then if you go single sport NFL, the promos are still up, including the main one at the top, which is the early bird special hoop. Final thoughts from you, man, before we get out of here. Uh, excited for week one. Uh, it's a long season though. I will say, take it easy. Don't blow your load. Week one of the NFL season makes the rest of the season not as fun.

So a lot of big contests, there's a lot of temptation to, to get in and expand your, uh, your, your spending limits on, on week one, pump the brakes, long season, a lot of big contests all season long. Um, Very excited for this year. If you're not a member, get on over to shipitnation.com, get in the Discord, and make sure you tune in to the show at eleven thirty Eastern as well right here on this channel. But good luck to everyone today.

Yeah, I just saw Jack Strand will be Cooper Rush's backup. They're already talking about his backup because of the back spasms. And then also get your mayor in now because, you know, people worry they might just just go with them because why not? It says the Raiders think Brock Bowers has a realistic chance to be back in week two. So this is your your Michael Mayer week. Get it done. Time is now. All right, guys. We appreciate you. Like we said, come back.

It's less than an hour. Hammond Belman will be back with Contrarian Constructions. Make sure to hit that thumbs up. Subscribe to the channel for all of our free shows. We've added plenty more this season. And then the show later today, the Sunday Sweat Down with Hammond Nades will be back at six p.m. Eastern. We'll be new, but they'll be back at six p.m. Eastern. Hamm's on the next show coming up, but he'll be back with Nades at six p.m.

Eastern. Check that show out as well. For Title, for Hoop, and for myself, Toe Tag, and Tambo, good luck in your week one contest. Let's ship it! Bye.