CFB DFS – WEEK 6 | Saturday Slate | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Craver is questionable. So maybe you go to Horton there, but it's weird to see them in the low $5,000. So that's something that I think is enticing. And then Marcel Reed, I don't really know what to say, but he's him. He might get you a rushing score too. Uh, he's in the low seven Ks, just not super exciting. And then Reuben Owens, uh, priced down a bit as well, but now Morrow probably back and going to be in the mix.

So, uh, I don't know how much of him you can get to either, especially after watching what Florida or Missouri did to Florida last week. But then the Missouri side seems like it's way easier to break down. You got four guys that are getting all of the usage. Simmons obviously touches the ball every play outside of a wildcat. Jamal Roberts crushed last week. Obviously, there's going to be a lot of recency bias there, but I don't think it's just recency bias.

I think he like they have a good running game. And then when they throw the ball, it's just going to Caden Lee and Donovan Lubaday. Like that side seems really easy to break down. How are you looking at this, Kenny? Yeah, I mean, the Missouri side, it's so consolidated that like I would like to see a little higher than a twenty six point team total.

But I mean, you could run like in a small field, single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ or just smaller field in general. You just play everybody from Missouri and stack them up. That being said, like GPs, I really like these guys as one offsOne-OffIn CFB DFS, a one-off is a player you roster outside a stack, often a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. A quarterback selected without his pass catchers can also function as a standalone play.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗. Simmons, I liked him last week. He was a little bit cheaper. I don't think I'm going to get there this week. But Roberts, Lee, Alibude, not a lot to add. I will say Caleb Goody got a touchdown.

And it's like now college players are getting so old that we have Goody seniors. We have seniors instead of juniors. But, yeah, and then, you know, A&M side, I just – Craver's a game-time decision. I might have some interest if – um, he was not to play in like Horton or Bethel Romain, but as we get through the slate, we'll find that there's an abundance of value wide receivers today.

So A&M is pretty much no for me, definitely in on some Tigers though, for sure. Yeah. And I think we've talked about it in the past. A&M is one of those teams that could score thirty five points, but nobody hits value on their offense just because their defense is that good. Um, They had two defensive touchdowns a few weeks ago. So totally with you there. And speaking of value wide receivers, we're going to jump right in with this next game.

Because if you look at Arizona's availability report, it is jam packed with skill players. Fafita is expensive. I mean, $8,900. It becomes a tough click. But knowing what you're up against in this West Virginia defense and seeing what teams have done to them, specifically Iowa State last week, I think there's an argument that he is easily outplayed. A fair value. Kedrick Ruscano, $6,000, I think a solid price. He had twenty one carries last week. He just wasn't very effective.

So again, the recency bias is going to get me here. I think if Ruscano gets twenty one touches again, the the ceiling is certainly there.

But these wide receivers is where run into a lot of question marks no giovanni Richardson no trey Spivey no chris hunter no cole rusk at the tight end position uh so that Isaiah Mizell as like the standout guy who's already gotten some opportunity even with some of those guys healthy but we have names like Brandon Phelps rj Mosley caleb jett smith uh that are gonna be on the field a ton and not a single one of them priced over $4,000 we even have a min price rj Mosley so When you're looking at this, it makes it easier to stack for FIDA.

And then you look at the other side and you're like, oh, West Virginia is expensive, but they also have a great matchup. And you have cheap runbacks on the other side. Michael Hawkins just scores three touchdowns a game. Cam Cook is tough because Mikhael Hawkins takes all of his touchdowns. And then if you're looking to stack, I mean, DJ Epps seems like the one guy you're looking at. Jaden Bray, you get a pretty significant discount. But this seems like a really juicy game.

Super high total. A lot of fantasy points on the board so far this season for a lot of these guys. Just how do you handle the Arizona wide receiver situation? I mean, it's really solid, a thirty two point team total on the road. This totals only went up as the week has went on. I think for me, as I've thought about this more like myself is definitely the safest.

Like that's your I think if you're playing a cash lineupCash GameA cash game is a contest that pays a large share of the field, usually close to half, the same flat prize. Fifty-fifties, double-ups and head-to-heads are the common cash games.Treat cash games as the steady base of your bankroll. Use one safe core across your cash entries on a slate, and save riskier ideas for tournaments.Full explanation ↗, that is your first kind of wide receiver click. Beyond that, you know, Phelps, Smith, Mosley, I tend to lean. So like last week, Iowa State, I was kind of in on the minor case. I thought slot receivers maybe had a good matchup.

He did okay but Cody Jackson had a really good game out wide I think you can it doesn't really matter what receiver positions these guys are lining up I didn't really find an edge there but when you're playing the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ game and then even you get like a little bit of price discount too with like a Phelps and a smith Tyler Powell's a tight end I'm not super interested but I'm I'm really intrigued in the Phelps and smith um As I've thought about it more, you could do a Mikhael Hawkins with two Arizona receivers.

And I think that that's a really, like, I would tend to lean that Hawkins most of the time would outscore for Fita. Like, you know, just apples to apples, like, just with the amount of touchdowns Hawkins gets. And myself and, like, Smith could each get there for their prices. And you'll want Hawkins over for Fita at a hundred dollars more, like, just straight up. So I think that that's kind of a good way to get different but still play all the pieces.

Like, it's just getting different in your construction. Sorry to keep going about Arizona. There's just a lot here. There's a lot to break down. Riscano had twenty one carries last week. He was not efficient at all. But that volume definitely raises my eyebrows. He didn't have any touchdown passes last week. So we did see that West Virginia might be susceptible to some running back passes last week with Aiden Flora. I don't think that's going to happen again. But Riscano should not carry my ownership.

And in this game environment. Like, if he happens to eat up touchdowns or something, super intrigued by that. The downfall is there's always a Quincy Craig looming who's been more efficient.

I don't know if I'm gonna I don't think I'd get to craig this week but it's intriguing like if there was like if we were really starved for value craig would be in my pool probably as well um and then yeah west virginia side not a lot to say but I mean Hawkins has been just a fantasy just fantasy god he's ran so well with touchdowns and it just limits camp cook's upside Cam Cook can like make like three x value on volume alone but when you're paying that price in a GPPGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗ you want forty point upside and I don't know if he has I mean he does have that but we haven't seen it yet because Hawkins just absorbs these touchdowns um But, yeah, and then you kind of touched on Epps.

That's really the only one I'm interested in. You know, we saw Traugh catch a touchdown last week. But I think just Hawkins and then a little bit of Cook and then, like, every Arizona Wildcat. So that sums it up pretty well, I guess. Yeah, and when you're looking at a guy like Cam Cook, we know his history. If you played DFS before Jacksonville State last year, an absolute animal.

And that was a two-headed monster with quarterback and running back with Caden Creel at the helm there. And now we're getting it to where they're both getting the volume. It's just Hawkins is taking the touchdown. So what ownership are you looking for in a GPP before you're like, okay, I need to get more Cam Cook to get a massive amount of leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗? His ownership is going to be nerfed because of the touchdown variance so far, right? You would think so.

Yeah I mean I think that his ownership is gonna like that's gonna make him more viable for sure and then just I mean Hawkins he's priced up finally I mean he should probably even be a little like the ninety five to $9,800 um I'm not gonna get too picky about that but right um he should carry some so that's always leverage there I mean it doesn't take much there's always you know the injury or just the touchdown variance so I think yeah I don't know Can't cook five percent over under this week.

Is that kind of where we're sitting at? It's probably a fair line. And it's it's one of those things I've been waiting for it to go in Cook's favor. It seems like every single week and every single week is just Hawkins. So I was going on wins a lot. Welcome. Let's have a weekend for sure. We can get the chat active. That'd be awesome. I mean, get your questions in.

We're happy to answer questions about any game, whether we've already covered it, no matter when you're coming in. So if you have a question about an upcoming game, a question about a previous game or the game we're on, we're happy to answer them. We got a few like obviously we got through a couple of games so far. So questions about those. We're happy to go back if need be. But we'll move on to UCF and Oklahoma State. I mean, UCF is just here every single week.

It's there. Maybe DraftKings favorite team. But again, I'll take this game over Ohio State's game and Notre Dame's game on the UCF side. Kiwan Jenkins, dare I say, looked decent last week. I don't know that I'm going to go on a limb and say he was good. But he did show some life. Duke Watson average per carry is now down to eight point four yards of carry, which with the volume you want to carry to be completely honest.

And then in the wide receiver room, Josh Derry had a stellar game last week. But Dwayne Thomas is questionable. He could be back. It looks like Dylan Wade's going to be back, which is certainly going to throw a wrench into the usage of these wide receivers. Which outside of Darius game last week was kind of already spread out. And then on the Oklahoma State side, we're running into some pricing issues here.

Drew Mestemaker at $8,000, a solid option with a thirty two point team total. You could argue he should be higher. Caleb Hawkins at $7,100 seems insane. He had thirty one touches against West Virginia. And now that was a pristine matchup. But thirty one touches like I don't I don't care who you're playing. If you're going to get that sort of volume and it's not it's not a one offOne-OffIn CFB DFS, a one-off is a player you roster outside a stack, often a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. A quarterback selected without his pass catchers can also function as a standalone play.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗. We saw him get that volume at North Texas last year.

So $7,100 for thirty one carries. I'll I'll take that all day, even if he gets. Seventy-five percent of that, I think you're in a good spot. And then right now, Wyatt Young's questionable. If he can't go, Miles Coleman might become the value wide receiver player of the slate. And even if everybody is healthy, I think you can look at Young. You can maybe still look at Coleman, but like Justin Bowick, is the target leader for this Oklahoma State team.

And through four games, he has four touchdowns. So even if the wide receiver room is healthy, if you want a piece of this offense but can't quite get to young, Boak's there at a thousand dollars cheaper. I mean, it's fairly one-sided, but I think the pricing is right on UCF that you can get a run backBring-BackIn college football, a bring-back is usually a pass catcher or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗ if you want an OSU stack.

But another game where even though the spread's pretty big, it's double digits, we're getting a lot of points in this game.

Yeah for sure I um I guess kind of starting with the ucf side I really don't have a ton of interest I mean just they've been really tough to pay derry obviously had a great game last week um we'll kind of touch on some stuff later of talking about the team he played last week um but at $4,100 I think he's really fine in a run back same with Duke Watson but I don't think I'd play him as a one-offs like I want them to correlateCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Full explanation ↗ with these cowboys um So one thing I kind of forgot to look at is, like, why had Young been on the injury report every week?

Is that, like, I don't know if I'm making that up or not. Keep talking. I'll figure it out. Or maybe it's just been other receivers. I can't remember. But that's really the, like, talking point. And you touched on it. You know, if Young is out, Miles Coleman becomes a pretty elite value play. That being said, I don't – like, I like an Oklahoma State onslaught. It's gettable for sure this week. You know, Chris Barnes is kind of working his way in. I don't know.

Like, it seems like they've kind of favored Terrence Lewis a little more, but I don't know. I don't know how that's going to shake out, but you could like, I don't hate it. Chris Barnes, Miles Coleman or Terrence Lewis, if it's with Mr. Maker only and in like a game type stack. Yeah. Not a lot to add to what you said. Like Oklahoma state's really nice. And it's like one of the spots where there's no weather issues or anything. And I don't know.

It's a, Kind of tough to predict. Like, you kind of maybe want, like, the extra touchdowns out of Mestemaker or Hawkins. But I think there's a world where they both can get there in an onslaught as well. But, yeah, that's kind of what I have. What do you think, Wyatt Young? Just the Big Twelves archives. It's just complete garbage. We got this week and the weekend of September. So that was, I think, the last time they played, which, whatever, they don't have a full season.

But it doesn't appear he was on the injury report at any point that week. But that's all I got, handcuffed by the Big Twelve. It's probably just that Burns, they've had other receivers on there throughout the year that have been sprinkled in, and that's probably what I was thinking. Yeah. I think the Oklahoma State side is the side you're really looking at, but I don't think you completely cross off UCF. And obviously weather could play a huge factor.

If we start to see more games impacted by it, you're going to stray to these games where the weather's going to be good a little bit more. Uh, all right. North Carolina, Pittsburgh. Uh, we got some, some value here. Billy Edwards at $5,300. Uh, Jordan ship wide receiver one at sub $5,000. Uh, CJ Sadler was back last week or last game ran a ton of routes against Notre Dame. Just didn't quite have the target shareTarget ShareIn college football, target share is the same percentage of team targets, but it is often far more concentrated: many offenses send a third or more of their throws to one receiver or tight end.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Full explanation ↗.

Uh, So, you know, another value option, but it's really shipping Thurman in this wide receiver room. And I know we like attacking Pittsburgh through the air. And, you know, North Carolina short showed signs of life against a really good opponent in Notre Dame. Maybe Notre Dame is not as good as, as people are.

Projecting them to be they argue strength the schedule it seems like every single year with Notre Dame outside of a couple of games but still they've done more than other teams against that the Irish and then on the Pittsburgh side you have Holden Garner coming in as the backup I do think he showed some signs of life when he came in relief for Heinzel and I it's it's yet to be determined how much of a how much of a drop-off it truly is.

But Shaqiri and Turner seemed to be back to normal last week. Twenty touches, just had a touchdown sniped by Ferguson, which sucked. But, I mean, that's part of DFS. And then the wide receivers, Katoris Hicks, had a stellar game against Virginia Tech. Sincerely saw his highest target shareTarget ShareIn college football, target share is the same percentage of team targets, but it is often far more concentrated: many offenses send a third or more of their throws to one receiver or tight end.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Full explanation ↗ of the year.

One thing we're obviously continuing to watch week after week is Malik Knight, because if he comes back, he will throw – a a bit of a wrench into this wide receiver room because he did have a decent target share before going down I don't know how much it would hurt hicks or lee it probably hurt more a guy more like Bryce Yates uh who's seen an increase in volume um so yeah uh what what do you have on unc pick it's a lower total but I think I think this is the spot where you can maybe get a little bit different uh just because of the matchup I mean, initially this week, the first dummy lineup I built was I used Billy Edwards and paired him with one of these wide receivers.

I really like, I mean, I'm always going to be one to attack Pittsburgh. They're kind of a pass funnel through there. So I definitely like the Billy Edwards. I didn't realize that about CJ Sadler. I don't mind him with Billy Edwards specifically. I'll have to dig into that more because, I mean, yeah, he was out there a ton. Yeah, not a ton to add on North Carolina. I like the passing side.

One thing about Turner that, you know, he didn't get necessarily the carry volume, but he caught a lot of passes. I can't remember the exact number last week. Six. Yeah, six. I mean, we've always seen these pit running backs be involved in the pass game, and now we've got a backup quarterback.

I don't remember what they said, like how much football he's actually played, but I know he's like a six-year college football player, so it's like a – I don't, but either way, like, I think Turner, like, I think I'm playing that for the receiving upside. Um, but as I've grown throughout the week and looked at it, I really, really liked Turner. Um, yeah, Boosie. I, uh, as far as the receivers go for Pitt, I think it's, I don't know.

Cause it's like, if I play Grenier, like I almost feel like I just, like, I don't mind playing it with Turner. But I just don't have a good feel of what that's going to be. But if I play Grineer, I feel like I want to pair him with a wide receiver. So I've still got to kind of analyze that situation. That being said, I think just, I mean, Blue Hicks has been kind of the top guy. Sincerely, he's out there, but he just keeps disappointing.

And I keep getting sucked in there too, and it's driving me nuts. But yeah, for me, Pitt, I think I'm just going to kind of stay in the lane with the running back. I'll probably play some Grineer in like my one-fifty build. You know, as like a game stackGame StackIn college football, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗, have him ran back with a ship or a Thurman. But, yeah, this game's intriguing. The total's not right there where I'd like to see, but there's definitely some spots.

Yeah, and with Sincere Lee, I mentioned that he had his highest target share of the year. He had five receptions, but I think it was only for like thirty-some yards, and he didn't get the score. And so it's just not going to pay off when he's in the mid-five Ks. Um, so yeah, uh, before we move on to the next game, just, I need a temporary excitement a little bit before we get there. Right.

Uh, I do want to touch on this question, um, using the Stone 2.0 point Oh, which Another feature I'll show off here after we're done going through the games. It's awesome. But do you look at total ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗? Should you be trying to achieve a specific number when you're looking at GPPsGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗ and single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗? I can touch on single entry because I play a lot more cash, double upsDouble-UpA double-up is a cash game that pays every winner exactly twice the entry fee. Because the site keeps a fee, slightly less than half the field gets paid.Look at cash lines from similar past slates before you build. They tell you how many points you realistically need, which keeps you from reaching for upside you do not need.Full explanation ↗, triple ups, multipliers, things like that.

For single entry, first of all, one note, I will enter a cash lineupCash GameA cash game is a contest that pays a large share of the field, usually close to half, the same flat prize. Fifty-fifties, double-ups and head-to-heads are the common cash games.Treat cash games as the steady base of your bankroll. Use one safe core across your cash entries on a slate, and save riskier ideas for tournaments.Full explanation ↗ into a bunch of content. But I always make sure to enter it into a single entry as well, because if it takes off and I happen to have a guy with leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ in that lineup, I don't want it to be stuck in only double ups or only triple ups. I want a chance at that top prize in the single entries as well.

But typically for single entry, I'll roll with my cash lineup and find one or two pivot guys. And the other thing that factors in too, because there's a difference between single entry GPP and an MME, like the huge contests, the smaller the contest, I don't think you need to get as cute, uh, with, with ownership. Uh, so how do you approach that when, like with the one-fifty max150-MaxA 150-max DFS contest allows you to submit up to 150 entries into that contest, paying the entry fee for each. Max entering means using every allowed entry, whether the contest limit is 150 or a smaller number.Multiply the entry fee by your planned entry count before building. If you cannot justify additional lineups on their own merits, leave the remaining entries unused.Full explanation ↗, the flagship contest and those, those bigger with, you know, tens of thousands of entries into it.

So, um, I guess, yeah, single entry, like I kind of do the same as you, like, usually it's just like my favorite lineup. Um, GPPs, so I guess this is the way I usually figure it. And it's kind of like just, really I don't know if it's like the right way as DFS is like modernized anymore to do it like this, but usually I'll get my optimizer set up. I have all my groups, everything.

And then I run a hundred and fifty lineups. I look at the lowest owned lineup and usually I set up below that bar. I will say like two game slates, usually it'll be a hair above that bar. And then we get into a twelve game slate like this. Usually I'm probably dropping twenty to thirty percent below that bar for one hundred and fifty build. That's pretty general. If you want, I can talk about more specific numbers in Discord more.

I don't necessarily want to give away all the treats right here on a public show. But I'm more than happy to talk with you about that on Discord. But like I said, in another way, you could just make a group of players. I haven't built with SaberSim as much. I need to get more experience on it. So I don't know if you can quite do this. I'm guessing you can. But just including forcing one guy under ten percent, that's a good way to do it.

Because a lot of times, like college football, And it's pricing has been tighter on DraftKings this year. So we haven't quite had like the forty hundred dollar running back that's seventy percent owned. But that's when it can kind of get funky to where you might just want to force a lower like because you might want like it might be really good chocolate eating, but you just want to force like one pivot or two pivots and even a big GPP hundred and fifty max build.

Yeah, that's a really good question. That's that's an interesting talking point. Yeah.

And some marketing that I'm glad organically came up because we do talk about this kind of stuff in the Discord well we have a stage every Saturday uh an hour before lockLineup LockLineup lock is the deadline after which you cannot change your selected players. Without late swap, your entire lineup locks together; with late swap, which allows edits after the contest begins, players lock at their games' listed deadlines.After saving an edit, reopen your entered lineups and confirm the change reached every intended entry. Check the site's displayed lock times and time zone instead of relying on the television schedule.Full explanation ↗ where we'll talk about this kind of stuff too obviously we'll go through our plays and our pools and what we're looking at in terms of you know weather etc um But I don't know if you saw the NFL chat in our Discord this week, Kenny, but one of the heaviest process conversations I've seen, it went from, I want to say like Monday night all the way through Tuesday early afternoon, but a lot of good stuff in there.

And just talking about, okay, it was showdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)Showdown is a single-game DFS format where you build a lineup under a salary cap. In Captain or MVP formats, you assign one player to a special roster slot that multiplies their fantasy points and can increase their salary.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗ specific. Like when do you go five, one, when you go four, two, how do you load your captain? If you like three guys, all of all different sorts of stuff. And it was really good stuff. And even as somebody who's been playing DFS for a long time, I learned a lot just from reading our community's thoughts on everything. So just another great reason to get into the Discord.

Again, experience it for five days for less than twenty bucks. It's the perfect time to get in right now. This is the heart of football season, football every single day, and it's awesome. All right, I needed to distract you before we got to this game. I needed to, like, get your mind turning. I know you have a lot to say. And, you know, being our resident Nebraska guy, Indiana at Nebraska, just a seven-point favorite.

I think this is going to be a hostile environment. I think Nebraska is going to give them a run. We already saw Northwestern do it. I mean, I think Northwestern is a good football team. But Nebraska is, I would say, on that level. On the Indiana side, Josh Hoover, I mean, $8,500 feels a little bit overpriced. Now I'm going to say that and he's going to snipe a couple of rushing touchdowns on the goal line.

But like, I don't think it's a situation where you need to stack him just because of how high his wide receiver ceilings are. And it gets a little bit expensive, too. I like Becker and Marsh, but they're. Marsh a little bit more just because he's cheaper, but they're almost priced out of my range on this slate. And then Turbo and BB, we've seen them both hit value. We've seen them both hit value in the same game.

It's just, again, one of the tougher matchups Indiana's going to play this year.

And with a timeshare and not knowing exactly how it's going to go, whichever one I play I guarantee the other one's going to have a better day it just that seems like the way it's been with these timeshares so far this year and then Nebraska I'm not going to dig too much into because I know you're you're in tune to what's going on there but Jamal Rule is a guy that's one of those cheap running backs that you wouldn't anticipate is in a good spot against Indiana but at this price with his workload I he was out previously but we, everybody had eyes on him early in the season when he had that monster game and nobody had ever heard of him except I presume you had heard of him.

Uh, and then we have quasi Gilmore or Gilmore quasi Gilmer, uh, who's really established himself as the alpha and Nazia Hunter kind of taken a back seat. Like we have him as wide receiver for right now on the stone. Uh, so talk, talk to me about your Huskers. Um, talk to me about this matchup against Indiana and, uh, I want your biased and your unbiased opinion. Start with the unbiased objective DFS first. Okay. Unbiased.

Kwasi Gilmer is the only good play that's really going to garner ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ that's going to project well in this game. Okay. So the Indiana side. I don't have any interest in the running backs cause they're priced up. I don't see a ceiling for them there. Um, Hoover too expensive for his role. Becker and Mars. I both like a lot. They're both going to be lower owned cause they're pay upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗ wide receivers. I really like Mars this week.

Um, as a, like just a total, total different direction for what we'll see. And I think it's still like, you can just double punt, you know, you got three receiver spots, double punt two of them play with Nick Mars and you know, the third one. Um, Yeah, so the Nebraska side, Jamal Rule, going into the year, like, Husker Nation loved this guy. He had a really good spring game. I wasn't as much buying the hype just because he's a true freshman, three-star.

I think he, like, I looked on two, four, seven, he was, like, the running back, Not that necessarily means anything. Like, Malachi Toney was a three-star. Now look at that. But he looked so good. And I know it wasn't against competition, but he's like a star. And at .四ty-nine hundred, like, there's going to be rotation with Nebraska's running backs, but...

What I kind of anticipate, and this is just me, like this is fully my opinion, I think Mosey's going to be really phased out. He's been fine, but he hasn't been as good. Like Nelson and Rule have both looked good. And Rule, like I said, he's pretty much – he got hurt against Michigan State, missed last week.

He was a game-time decision last week, so I feel like he's – good to roll I like rule at like I mean probably sub three percent ownership indiana has the highest rushing defense grade on the slate but nebraska throws to their running backs a ton um and calandra is like a wild man back there making plays he's not going to be owned at all I really don't that's like he's kind of expensive for me on the slate um I'll still have some shares of him like especially pairing with a happy Gilmer I mean quasi Gilmer um I think Gilmer had like seventeen targets last week and like even like the way that game started last week, Maryland kind of jumped out on Nebraska and so they were kind of thrown like they were pushing the ball down the field.

And calandria just loves to pepper Gilmer um I think he's a great play I going into like when I first saw the slate on Monday I'm like oh Gilmer's gonna be like the cash receiver this week and then like the Arizona situation happened but Gilmer's still gonna be a pretty popular cash click and he's I think he's a great play in all formats he's underpriced for his role I mean

Rest of the past catchers I'm not going to get there as much as like my little heart desires um zaya hunter was obviously our stud last year and he's kind of been phased out Barney's our slot um lyndon meyer's a great tight end he's not a great DFS play but he is a great tight end so before I keep going too long I think I summed it up pretty good for a team that's really not going to be that viable for DFS which kind of sucks I wish so DraftKings will do showdowns like a ten o'clock showdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)Showdown is a single-game DFS format where you build a lineup under a salary cap. In Captain or MVP formats, you assign one player to a special roster slot that multiplies their fantasy points and can increase their salary.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗ one thirty showdown They took A&M in Missouri over Indiana, Nebraska.

I always like to have like a little fifteen Person like showdown contest with my buddies when they do include Nebraska. And I was really disappointed that DraftKings didn't make this a little ten o'clock showdown. But yeah, that's that's all I have here. I'm definitely. I'm going to play some, but I might be the only one. Or Husker fans in general might be the only ones. Yeah. Well, the one thing I'll say is that it looks like a competitive game on paper.

Not the most competitive, but certainly not as big of a spread as we're seeing on some of these other games. And Nebraska being at home helps. But I would side with you on that, too, that they're not going to be a popular team by any means. Mm-hmm. All right, moving on to South Carolina, Florida. Ian, who's not with us today, he is our resident Gator guy. He gave me a few notes, and we discussed some things last night with him.

But South Carolina coming in, really just, I mean, a lot of people surprised that Beamer's still there. And I don't know about you, but I don't want to be in Florida's path this week, no matter what. My team has done so far this season. Uh, this is that, this is the last team I want to see. Uh, so you're looking at the South Carolina side, maybe you can play Sellers, but I think he's still at risk of getting benched.

I mean, he, he gets there with his legs. He can hit value with his legs. Um, but the passing has been an issue and, and there was already rumors that they were going to go to their backup last week if he didn't perform. And, you know, he apparently performed well enough that Cutter Woods didn't, didn't come into play. Um, But I, seven, two hundreds, just a fair price.

So it's, it's, I, I still think a little difficult, like watching what Byron Brown and against them, I think Sellers can do that with his legs, but he, I don't think he has the throwing capability that Byron Brown has. Not that Brown's this elite passer, but I think Sellers is worse. Uh, Matt Fuller. I mean, in terms of usage, I think he's the one guy you look at on this team. He's just a little bit expensive, uh, in the seven Ks.

But by all accounts, we're paying upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗ at running back this week. So I think he's definitely on the radar. And these wide receivers, man. I mean, Mazeo Bennett is fine just because he's cheap. Nick Harbor is just one of the more disappointing players in college football over the past few years. And he's only got a forty five percent catch rate this year. So it seems to be much of the same. And then on the Florida side, Aaron Filo.

As just kind of fine where he's at at $7,800. Jaden Baugh was shut down last week by Missouri. So I love the idea of a bounce back here. I think this is a good spot for him. Again, I think Florida is a freight train without caring what's in its path this week. And then in the wide receiver room, Vernell Brown is listed as questionable. He was listed as questionable last week.

Doesn't think he's going to play, uh, just because they have Texas coming up and they want him like a hundred percent healthier, as close to as they can possibly get. Uh, so that's going to leave Dallas Wilson a bit expensive for a wide receiver, tough to pay up, especially when you have like Nick Marsh for a hundred dollars cheaper, probably with more usage opportunity. Uh, but if Brown's out, you can look at Eric Singleton.

At $4,500 after Dallas Wells and everybody else in the wide receiver room is cheap if Vernell Brown doesn't go. So so a little bit of interest there, but really boss, the one that sticks out. And now this is another one. This is a game that could be impacted by weather. I don't. It's like the total has gone down a couple of points. I think it started at sixty and a half. Now is it down to fifty eight and a half?

So not a huge shift, but a shift nonetheless. So definitely something we'll watch. But I think Jane Boz and play regardless. And what are you looking at in this game? And like what specifically South Carolina? I think Florida is is pretty clear. Yeah, South Carolina for me, I mean. You made a good point on Sellers. It was funny when you're like the better pastor than Byron Brown. I was like, I mean, that's pretty bad or worst pass. That's pretty bad.

I mean, in the trailing game scriptGame ScriptGame script is how a game's score and time remaining influence its pace, play choices and player opportunities. In football, teams protecting a lead often run more, while teams chasing a deficit often pass more.Before locking a lineup, ask who keeps playing if your expected script reverses. Check passing-down roles and backup rotations instead of assuming a team's leading rusher handles every situation.Full explanation ↗, I don't mind Sellers Fuller for me. I just prefer so many other, like, I don't want to pay seven to two hundred for Fuller.

Um I honestly don't even have interest in nick harbour really if Bennett's out like I I just think it's a crappy situation um I'll definitely play some like Sellers boss stacks um obviously don't need to add it with both like he's elite um So last week I really liked the Kentucky wide receivers against South Carolina and I like I know Anderson had to have gotten their Darby like won me a seat last week.

Rodriguez I think had over ten points in sub $4,000. I'd kind of be intrigued in Vernell Brown, but if he doesn't play like it does like I don't mind like a Dallas Wilson or like Stockton played a lot of slot snaps for them last week, but Singleton is getting worked in so. I think it's worth looking at the Florida receivers, especially since they're tied for the highest team total on the slate. But I don't know.

I really don't want to play Bob and Wilson together, I don't think. That's a lot of salary. So I think just like one Florida play for me, but I think they're, I mean, Boz obviously just, I don't, I wish they would have kind of kept him priced up where it was because he's in a way better spot this week. I can't believe how much Missouri shut him down last week. That was pretty impressive by the Tigers. Yeah.

And one note on Stockton, too, he does play from the slot primarily. But even with his highest number of routes run against Missouri, he's only targeted three times. And that's a point that he made during our conversation yesterday as well, is just that he's more of a blocking slot wide receiver. So while he's on the field a lot, it doesn't always turn into production now. Anybody who's on the field can score a touchdown at any time. I mean, we've seen RB fours.

Like, look at last night. It was that kid from Arkansas State, Timothy Carter. There was no shortage. There was no shortage of backup running backs and backup quarterbacks scoring rushing touchdowns last night. Yeah, Ethan Vasko, three carries for four yards and two touchdowns. Unreal no, it was that was actually a pretty fun slate last night though. If you guys didn't watch that South Alabama Arkansas State game was insane.

That game was over three times and then it wasn't over and Arkansas State was back. It was fun right up until the end so. Yeah, I think they said that that was the highest scoring game of the year so far. Yeah, it ended up being fifty six to forty two, I believe. Fifty six, forty nine. Oh, it's forty nine. They did score that other touchdown. OK, sweet. Yeah, it started getting late. My eyes are glazing over a little bit by the time that game was done.

All right. Back to Saturday, Texas at Oklahoma. One of the bigger. Games of the week. Obviously, Bama, Georgia on the night slate is one, but Texas, Oklahoma, Red River rivalry looks like it's going to be a slog fest. Arch Manning is in the $7,000's, though, which is not something we're used to necessarily. So I think you can still get to him here at his reduced price. It looks like Hollywood Smothers is going to go.

So that kind of gives me pause on this running back room, especially, you know, I know Oklahoma's not good, but I think they still have a decent defense and can stop the run. And then these wide receivers, I think you can get to any one of these three guys and they have some upside in this matchup. Wingo's been solid. He just hasn't found the end zone in a couple of games. Up until last week, I believe, Mosley was leading the team in targets.

Cam Coleman, he had a two-touchdown game, but he's been fairly quiet. And I think he's... Of course, I said this a lot when he was at Auburn, too. Like, this week's going to be the week for Cam Coleman. But the ability's certainly there. It's just a cost issue. And then on the Oklahoma side, John Mateer is... In my notes, I just wrote he's kind of the laughingstock of college football right now.

If you look across the Internet outside of Texas A&M's end zone design, I think John Mateer might be the most memed thing with college football this year. So but at $6,400, I mean, if Oklahoma is going to do anything on offense, it's probably going to start with him. Because I don't know that I like this running back room at all. No volume just hasn't been there for these guys, and it's a tough matchup.

The wide receiver room, though, is one spot I think you can get to for DFS purposes, because all of the usage is funneled to Satania and Rocky Beers. Satania, obviously, at $5,900, but Beers at $4,200. What's better than beers on a Saturday afternoon? Love me a cold beer. Love me a good tight end. $4,200. I think he's even in this game is viable in all formats. I think he had nine targets last week.

So if the opportunity is going to be there for somebody, $4,200, it's going to catch eyes from my perspective. Sloggy game. I mean, honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the under even hit in this game. How are you approaching it for DFS? Yeah, I don't know how Mateer going to know if anybody's up and down the field since this is a neutral site game and he won't be able to go to the crowd. Go crazy, right? I mean, this game just sucks for me.

Like, I really want to like some pieces. And, I mean, it's a good real-life game. And this Red River rivalry over the years, you've seen some off-the-wall shit happen with, like, just it can get back and forth, like, just real quick. I mean, I don't think Caleb Williams is going to be coming off. I don't think Oklahoma has Caleb sitting on the bench to come in and save him this time. But, yeah, I don't – like, the Oklahoma side, like, I don't mind.

Beers is a tag net. I mean, cheaper, you know, Sategna is the cheapest I think he's been all year. So, like, he's always viable. And then Texas, you know, you kind of touched on it. Like, I think Cam Coleman is the cheapest he's been all year. And really, you're just hoping for him to get, like, they got, okay, if they're projected for twenty-three points, he gets two of them and goes over a hundred yards. That's going to work at $6,800.

But that's really the only interest I have from the Texas side is like Cam Coleman and like I'm not going to sack this game. So yeah, not a ton to add other than it's the Red River rivalry, you know? Yeah, it's going to get a lot. It's already getting a lot of hype.

I mean, it's doesn't matter how good or bad these teams are it's one of those games where you just take everything out of it because these teams get up when they play each other I do like that they both came over from the big twelve together because it keeps the rivalry that much more interesting um so yeah I think I it could be a fun overall game to watch um and it It could be the final nail in the coffin for Mateer, or it could be the start of his comeback story, right?

If you can get a storyline out of it, all the better. Oh, before we get to this next game, Indiana-Nebraska on FanDuel. I think you can create on FanDuel as well if you want to do one with your buddies. Contests are pretty small. That's because FanDuel doesn't prioritize their DFS product, but that's all I'm going to say about that because I don't want to get in any trouble. Ole Miss at Vanderbilt. Actually, I'm not really scared of getting in trouble. I retract that last statement.

FanDuel sucks. But I think there's a lot of opportunity on FanDuel just because I think a lot of people have that same mentality. They just funnel on DraftKings and there's room on FanDuel for more. Ole Miss at Vanderbilt. This is another one of those games that could be impacted by weather. The total started at fifty nine and a half when I took my notes early in the week and now it's down to So that's a five point drop.

Obviously, Vegas thinks that weather is going to have a big impact as well. I don't think weather is going to impact Trinidad Chambliss just because of his dual threat ability. He is a little bit expensive if you're just relying on his legs in this game, especially when you have Mikhael Hawkins in a better weather environment. And I don't know if it's a better game environment, but he's only three hundred dollars more. You can easily find that three hundred bucks. With the way this slate works out.

Kiwan Lacey is one we're going to have to wait and see on. Even if he's going to play, I would want to know that he's going to get his full workload and his a hundred percent at $7,800 because I think this is a great spot for him. If he didn't have any injury history this season, if this was just a normal game, I'd be all over Lacey at $7,800.

But there is going to be some pause and Deuce is expensive, but for good reason. And then, I mean, it's the normal, normal guys behind him. Odom, Ray, Fields, all in the four Ks, all fine. I mean, weather's going to be a big part of this. And then the Vanderbilt side, Jared Curtis is likely back. I think he's probable on the report. In a game that I think they'll probably need to throw a lot.

And I do think you can get to this Ole Miss defense. Running backs, I'm personally not touching. You know, maybe if the weather's bad, they get a few more short passes and more opportunities carrying the ball. But it's just, I never really liked Vanderbilt running backs. And then Junior Sherrill, if weather wasn't a factor, he's a guy I'd be all over because it seems like he's the only one they're throwing the ball to at least consistently.

Uh, so I, I mean, whether it's going to be a part, it looked, there's a lot of points in this game still, uh, on the table potential. So I typically one we would look at for DFS, but injuries and whether I play in a big factor, I think. Yeah. Um, Yeah, the weather's kind of a pain in the butt. Like, I thought the total would drop more just looking at this forecast. So, mysportsweather.com, which is Kevin Roth's website, he helps out.

I think he does a part for – or does, like, NFL weather for Ship It as well. But it's been a really good source this year to just get, like, a simple breakdown.

Like, this game, just looking at it right now, it's like – chance like seventy five percent chance of rain like guarding and it only gets worse and then fifteen to thirty mile an hour gusts like that just sounds pretty disgusting um you know like the vanderbilt side you touched on cereal old miss has the uh as like a terrible coverage grade like their third worst on the slate and like them west virginia and some other team I can't remember kind of in a tear in their own on the bottom of the slate The thing that sucks is like, I mean, if Cheryl's still going to take the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, which I don't know how much content sites are going to lower Cheryl's projection manually because of the weather.

Because it's tough to predict the weather and really tough to quantify how bad it's going to be. It could be a really good fade spot. I would love Junior Cheryl if there wasn't a weather spot. It'd be like a top wide receiver play for me. But it might be a good spot to get leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ in GPPsGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗ is just not play – not mess with Vanderbilt at all. Ole Miss, I'm really interested in Kwon Lacey. Like, I'm – I don't know. Gosh, dang it.

And if it wasn't an injury, like, he keeps re-aggravating his shoulder injury. And so it's like – it's even if he's a hundred percent right now, he goes out, plays, he aggravates it. Like, it's sloppy. I don't know. It doesn't feel very good. That being said, like, if he's – I mean, sub-ten percent, Kwon Lacey, price down, ten-point favorite on the road in a grainy game, like, that sounds okay, like, to me. I think that that's fine. Deuce Alexander been great, but he's expensive.

And so, like, and even pairing Chambliss and Deuce, It's like you're eating up a ton of salary right there. I almost prefer if I'm parents, Hamlet's to take a shot with one of these, like the Odoms of the type, you know, he's the tight end, maybe a shorter a dot type guy. Cunningham's kind of been getting some more work too. And I think he was a pretty big recruit last year. So I don't know. It's just a game. We're going to have to watch the weather.

I mean, I don't think there's much to watch.

Like I think we know what's going to be coming, but maybe we can get some like, I don't know, videos of the field and, don't so I don't is this supposed to be like thunderstorms or it's from the hurricane like could there be a lightning delay like I mean if there's a lightning I don't I don't see like an out for for this but I I don't know this game should be a lot cooler but the weather just throws a wrench into everything so that's really all I have to say here yeah and at this point I don't want to put full stock in the weather.

That's something we hit pretty hard on Saturday mornings as well because we have a lot better forecasting at that point. But yeah, if we get a lightning delay, that could flip this on its head and all of a sudden this becomes one of those ceiling type games for DFS purposes. So another great reason to be part of Ship It Nation. Big conversation in the Discord on Saturday mornings. All right. Back to the Big Twelve, back to some better weather. We have Houston at Kansas State.

Houston kind of looked gross last week for the most part, but that's because they were playing Central Florida. And as we mentioned, those games have gotten sloggy this year. Connor Weigman, I found out this week doing my research, he has the same birthday as me, so I might load up on him this week just for that. Great birthday. And he loves to run touchdowns in, which is great for DFS. He's got five rushing touchdowns the last two games.

But he also has three games of three passing touchdowns or more this year. So we know that the potential is there. If he can do both in one game, look out. And K-State's pasty looks good on paper. But... Teams have only averaged nineteen and a half passing attempts per game. So is it because their defense is that good or is it because teams aren't throwing on them?

So one of those things you have to look at when you're when you're looking into this game. But the running game, Kansas State got run all over by Cincy the last time they took the field. Both of Cincy's backs ran for one hundred and twenty plus yards. So that sets up well for another two-headed monster, Makai Hughes and Rashawn Sanford. The thing is, if Wegmans snipe and touchdowns, it just takes away some of their ceiling.

And the other thing is all three of these guys are going to eat into each other. So it changes your approach a little bit. And then the wide receiver and the top two guys are still the same, Amari Thomas and Patrick Overmyer. Thomas seems like the better option. He's just sixteen hundred dollars more expensive. And then Trent Walker has thirteen targets the last two games, and he's actually run more routes than Kobe Young, despite being on the field less.

So higher target shareTarget ShareIn college football, target share is the same percentage of team targets, but it is often far more concentrated: many offenses send a third or more of their throws to one receiver or tight end.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Full explanation ↗, higher routes run, just fewer snaps. But Trent Walker seems to kind of be inching his way into that wide receiver three. I'd still consider it like a three A and three B or I guess wide receiver two. But for DFS purposes, wide receiver three. But you could argue that Thomas Overmyer and Walker are all underpriced. And then on the K-State side, Avery Johnson, decent DFS here. His dual threat keeps him interesting.

Even at $8,300, he's the team's leading rusher and he can get there through the air. But this matchup doesn't really scare me necessarily. Rodney Fields and Joe Jackson are splitting behind RB one Avery Johnson, cheaper than the duo on the other side. But I mean, for good reason, like I think the opportunity is better for the Houston backs and the K state backs.

Um, and the other reason is because Houston has allowed a one hundred, a hundred yard wide receiver in every FBS game they've played this year, which just sounds awesome for Geron Tibbs. Uh, he left in the first quarter of the last game coach said he's fine. Um, Josh Manning is a target leader, but part of that is because Tibbs missed time.

And then Garrett Oakley, I think could see a pretty big increase in usage because Will Ancho or however you pronounce his last name is out for the season. Not that he was like a target hog, but it's more tight end snaps for Oakley and maybe even Lincoln cure. If you want to dig at the bottom of the barrel. Uh, and then one interesting guy is Derek Salley.

Uh, he, he's coming off of a huge game, mostly because Tibbs was out, but he showed up twelve, like seven catches on twelve targets. Uh, and the dude's six, three, two thirty five and he's sub $4,000. So if he earned a bigger role, um, you're looking at a $3,900 wide receiver that I think has massive ceiling if he's on the field. It's just a matter of if he's going to play it out. The tips is back.

But I think there's a lot in this game to love. Not quite as high of a total as Arizona, West Virginia, but a very competitive, high scoring outlook. Yes. I guess I've thought about this more and more. I really, really like this game. Like there's not going to nobody's pulling a significant amount of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ and With the tight total or tight spread, like we could get a back and forth here big time. I guess like the Kansas State side, you're talking about those wide receivers.

So Salley, he has seventeen targets on the year, but they've been on two games. He had twelve last week and he had five against Nichols State. I know he had a great game, but I'm going to play it as he's going to be phased out. He specifically played out wide where Tibbs plays. So I really like Tibbs for that. I mean, the hundred yard receiver, like every, like Derry had his like best game of the season last week.

Like he had over a hundred yards with the five yard ADOT. It was a, I, but yeah, I really like a wide receiver from Kansas state. So that kind of leads me to like liking Avery Johnson as well. Usually I wouldn't pair Avery, but I think that's how I'm going to like even get, more different this week. I don't know. I don't know if maybe I won't pair everybody. You can play him. I think it's fine to pair him this week.

The running backs for Kansas State is just too muddled for me. And like even Jay Harris has gotten in the box for him. So it's like, I don't know. It's really tough to figure out. That being said, it wouldn't shock me if one of them like had a DK flame at the end of the day. The Houston side. So I know we've been like he had all that rushing touchdown variance. He does steal it, but Kansas State's been specifically susceptible to running backs last week.

Both sensei backs went over a hundred yards like you talked about. Tab just happened to get all three touchdowns. I think I really like Ray Sean Sanford. I know Hughes is tech. It's like a one, a one B situation. Hughes hasn't been as efficient. And, you know, we saw Hughes last year go to Oregon and not do anything. And then he comes back to Houston, you know, it's a starter, but it's like more of a, a one cut scheme.

And like, when I picture that, I can just picture Sanford one cut gone to the end zone. Um, you know, like last week, like JC French didn't have that great of a rushing game. So I think I'm really going to take a stand here. And Sanford going to be unknown, but I think I'm going to be quite a bit overweight on specifically him. Underweight on Wiegman, the pass catchers I like, but I don't like...

There's some ceiling there for all of them in this game environment. So I think the way I'm going to play it, I'm going to run backBring-BackIn college football, a bring-back is usually a pass catcher or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗ Wiegman with the Kansas State guy and then kind of force... I don't know if I'm going to play these Houston pass catchers as one-offsOne-OffIn CFB DFS, a one-off is a player you roster outside a stack, often a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. A quarterback selected without his pass catchers can also function as a standalone play.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗. Maybe Amari Thomas, but like, well, gosh, I don't know. It's really intriguing. I think you can like, this is a good game stackGame StackIn college football, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗.

Um, that isn't going to be as I could just absolutely nuke in the afternoon. Um, yeah, I love like Avery Sanford tips. That's, that's a sweet, sweet, large field, like single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ stacked. And then you can play all the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ around it. Yeah. Especially when you're looking at their prices and what their ceiling is, it's not that far off of some of these guys that are going to garner ownership that are in quote unquote, better spots.

Um, So, yeah, a way to get different in a game that's going to it's projecting for a lot of points. So I like that a lot. And I'm a sucker for Houston. I don't know what it is. I get sucked into Houston every single year in some way or another. It seems like week to week, but. Yeah, I mean, this is definitely a good matchup for DFS and probably in real life. One that's not necessarily Duke at Georgia Tech.

I think we had a pretty good feel on both of these teams without any outside factors, but this is another game where the total has dropped five points throughout the week and it's going to be impacted by weather in all likelihood. So I'm just going to talk about Nate Sheppard and Justice Haynes. Nate Sheppard, I would not be surprised if each of these guys has forty touches in this game if weather holds.

And even at $9,700 for Sheppard, he's in play for me, even at $8,200 for Haynes. He's in play because there's a chance they each get sixty to seventy percent of their team's total volume. So that's really what I'm looking at. If for some reason weather isn't a factor, I love Kevin Roche. He's Georgia Tech's leading wide receiver. He's a ginormous tight end. And those are throws Alberto Mendoza can make. So that's always going to garner some interest.

And he's the easiest guy to spot on the field because of how big he is. But other than the running back, what are you looking at in this game? Are you waiting on the weather? I don't know that it's going to change that much. My mind's pretty well set on how I'm going to approach it. But there's a chance we wake up and everything's flipped on its head. Yeah, I'm in agreement with you. It's just like Sheppard or Haynes.

And I'm not even really – like Haynes – is carrying a pretty hefty price track I will say with hoesley off that's like that gives them a chance to have more volume like initially this week I kind of liked the georgia tech wide receiver as a sneak but I'm not going to mess with it there's just better spots like you can you can waste your money elsewhere I um I uh you know so yeah I don't have a ton to add here no and everybody watching go tell your friends aren't watching to waste their money on this game okay because this is this is an exclusive club here I know we're public but I feel like we have we have our same core of audience week to week

Obviously we want that to grow but uh yeah the people who don't watch I think deserve to be punished there I said it all right illinois michigan state a couple of teams that are kind of reeling right now Illinois coming off of a bad loss to Purdie. Their defense has taken some hits this year, but I think they're getting back to health. I mean, the Michigan State defense is too, just not quite as much.

But Caden Houser at $7,000, I keep going back to him in this matchup. I know their team total is not super high, but even Caden Houser, Whether you stack him with a wide receiver or not, because of pricing, I think he can get there at $7,000. And Michigan State's past D is mid, even when they're healthy. In the running back room, big news is Khalil Valentine's out. So Aiden Lafrey should have a huge role.

And he is at $5,800 and a slate where we're seeing a lot of pay upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗ running backs. I do like him a good amount. The question is, are they going to run out two running backs? Because they typically have a two to three back rotation. And Jordan Anderson could fill in. Javari Barnett was, quote, if he practices well, he'll see a bigger role. So I guarantee we're not going to know that. Caden Fagan is min price.

He transitioned a tight end this year, and he's bigger. He put on some weight, but he's a running back previously. So maybe they work him into the backfield a little bit more. It's hard to predict what's going to happen behind Lafayette. And then the wide receivers, Colin Dixon, rightfully so, is $8,400. He's a stud. His target shareTarget ShareIn college football, target share is the same percentage of team targets, but it is often far more concentrated: many offenses send a third or more of their throws to one receiver or tight end.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Full explanation ↗ is insane. Even against Ohio State, he had five for sixty three on eight targets. He just didn't score a touchdown.

That's the only game he didn't score a touchdown in. And then Hudson Clement is discounted a little bit. $4,600. But he's averaging more than six targets a game. So all seems fine and dandy, right? Jay Sean Platt is the X factor here. I'll let you talk a little bit more about him, but he's projected to be back. I know there was a lot of hype early in the season. You watched him pretty closely because of best ball. So I'll, I'll reserve that for you.

Um, but Jay Sean Platt at $4,000, whether you play him or not, it could have an impact on these other guys in the wide receiver room. And then Michigan state, I man, Alicia Milivojevic has been just a disappointment this year. I thought he was going to be way better. Now, if you read the fans, uh, reaction. It's because he's not being allowed to throw the ball downfield. Is it because of the coaching? Is it because of the protection?

It doesn't really matter, but it's not doing well for us in DFS. Cam Edwards is out. This running game looked pretty bad, although Patterson is projecting really well, and he did have eighteen carries last week. He only had sixty two yards. But just looking at his props, I think there is some potential here for him. And then the wide receiver room Frederick Moore seen a big increase in targets the last couple of weeks and he's sub $5,000 Bullard.

I said again if they throw the ball down the field, he's one of the guys that could be on the receiving end of that like the big play potential. I still think Jaden Savoury is my favorite because he's the tight end sub $4,000. You know Illinois past defense hasn't looked great. Michigan State's past game hasn't looked that great.

I think in this game something's gotta give, but I feel like I favor the Illinois past defense a little bit more than Michigan State's receiving. Yeah, Michigan State, I think they're just going to be a pass for me this week. I kind of tried that experiment last week with Patterson. That being said, I mean, the volume's there, but I just would rather go elsewhere. Really, this whole team's just a no for me.

Illinois side, so Laffrey, you'd think Laffrey would be really solid right here. He actually had an okay game against Ohio State, too. I don't I know that, like, it's kind of projected they will have a rotation, but I don't think that, like, I think Laffrey still has enough volume at his price. I think he's super viable. Kind of won a touchdown or two maybe from him. But yeah, the passing is really where I like this game.

I guess I'll kind of get into it with Platt. Like, he's kind of projected he was looking good in the slot preseason, and then he got hurt. He was a Blitnikoff preseason award watch list, which doesn't really count for a whole lot, but he was on the radar. It's really tough to project this week. He's definitely somebody that could get you an absolute good egg, but it would not shock me if he ended up with twenty.

Don't mind like a Houser-Dixon-Platt double. I think him being back affects Trimble the most, but I think it'll affect Clement some too. He's been playing in the slot a lot. That being said, Clement might just have a different role. Um, you know, I kind of think like back to last week, it was, we were really star for wider super value. I would have liked plat a lot more rather than this week. It's kind of a bad slate to give him a shot.

Um, so that being said, I almost like prefer him if I'm going to run an Illinois double and that's kind of where I'm going to put it as bad as I want him to be a stud. Um, it's just not quite there yet for me. Um, I mean, yeah, you know, and, like, really, like, last week, well, even against Nebraska, Michigan State had a decent run defense.

You know, they're so beat up in the secondary that I think it's an interesting spot for the Illinois passing stack. I mean, I don't know. Is Jason Platt going to catch the bomb that Malachi Coleman did to save me from making that bold call last week? Because that was very fortunate. Yeah. So, you know. Yeah, I mean, I don't disagree with that. Michigan State, like I said, they're getting healthy, but the secondary is still going to have some depth issues this week.

They're getting more healthy in the front seven. Their stud linebacker, I think, is probable to play, or at least questionable, which is an improvement. So, yeah, I like the Illinois side. What's probably going to happen is it's going to be Clement breakout game. Like, he's been playing a lot this year and is disappointed a ton. That's probably just what he needs is Platt to come back, and then he's going to have his big game once absolutely nobody plays him.

And that's a good point because Clement has gotten a lot of volume, especially for somebody who's $4,600. He just doesn't have a touchdown yet. That has to change. Right. All right. So we're playing Cam Cook and we're playing Hudson Clement for touchdown variance. It's got to it's got to come. All right. UCLA, Oregon, the last game on our slate, eleven and a half points spread. And this total is one that's gone up this week. And call me crazy, but I think UCLA can score some points.

Obviously Vegas does as well. And so do the betters as this total has been driven up, but the spread hasn't changed. And it's a revenge game for Bob Chesney coming from James Madison. It's a revenge game, I guess, for Wayne Knight as well in that sense. And it's something to look at last year when James Madison was seemingly out of the game, they still played hard and went and scored points.

They ended up scoring quite a few points that were, Not going to get him the victory, but we don't care for DFS. Points is points. Nico Yamaliaba has been good enough to get wins this year. Done a little bit with the arm, a little bit with the legs. I mean, they might need to throw a little bit more. But he's $6,200 against a team that if you take out Portland State, Oregon's allowing more than thirty points a game. So I think there's opportunity here.

Wayne Knight, $1,000 is really expensive because he's still not getting the volume necessarily. He's just so explosive. He's hitting value on nine to ten carries a game. But his long rush is only forty seven yards, so it's not even like a spike play that's skewing these results. That's not like he has a seventy five yard touchdown that's increasing his his yards per carry. He's just super effective when he touches the ball. His risk is still with Woods and Thomas, who both see the field.

But I think he's viable. These wide receivers are a little bit tougher to get to, though, even in the four case. I just think there's better $4,000 options on the board. Samaj Morgan.

Uh is getting like is getting looks from me like even though he doesn't have the targets of brian rowe brian rowe's catch rate is a lot lower and we need you to catch the ball to get DFS points um so maybe samaj Morgan but I'd really be looking at nico and maybe Wayne Knight that's a tough thing with ucla it's like I think they can score points but I don't know where I'm going to get to him quite yet on the oregon side though it's dylan rayola season we're getting a sub-$7,000 starting quarterback who is proven who played well against USC, and now he's going to get the full game.

On paper, the matchup doesn't necessarily look great if you look at the whole, but UCLA's also played San Diego State. Purdue threw for four, twenty-five, and three on them. I think that Dylan Raiola can easily get there. The running backs, just expensive. They're pretty much in a fifty fifty split. De'Ari Hill is, I guess, getting a little bit more work in the pass game. So maybe you look at him, but he's also more expensive, probably for that reason.

And then the wide receivers, Evan Stewart, De'Corey Morris, the top two guys, the guy benefiting most from the injuries, Messiah Hampton. He's got a little catches on thirteen targets over the last few games. Jamari Johnson came back in a big way against USC. I think he's viable at $5,000 seven catches on seven targets for one nineteen. If he scored the touchdown, he explodes and he's probably fifty five to $6,000 this week.

It's just I think all of these guys are priced fairly. One reason I'm looking at Stewart, though, is because he plays a majority from the slot. And I. UCLA has been getting like Purdie and Cal torched him in the slot. So if you want to look at a specific wide receiver in Oregon, maybe that draws you to Stewart. But I think all of these guys are on the table and there's a lot of points to go around in this game.

Yeah, this is a super, I guess it's not really late hammers. It's the last game on the stone, but I guess kind of starting with the UCLA side is a thought about the slight more since I guess we had our meeting last night. I'm definitely, I'm really interested in Nico and Wayne Knight, and I think that's it, but I do have a lot of interest in them. I mean, Oregon did a hundred yard rushing game to Mastabaker in a touchdown.

Maiva scored a rushing touchdown last week. So I think, and UCLA hasn't really been in a trailing game scriptGame ScriptGame script is how a game's score and time remaining influence its pace, play choices and player opportunities. In football, teams protecting a lead often run more, while teams chasing a deficit often pass more.Before locking a lineup, ask who keeps playing if your expected script reverses. Check passing-down roles and backup rotations instead of assuming a team's leading rusher handles every situation.Full explanation ↗. I think that maybe opens up some upside for him. I don't think I'm even going to worry about pairing him or taking a shot with one of these wide receivers, even though they are projected to be trailing. Um, and then, yeah, Wayne Knight, like I know he's splitting a lot and he's been explosive, but they haven't really needed him.

Um, that being said, like I, he is a hefty price tag and there is that possibility. Um, I'm not scared of Oregon's defense. Like I kind of going into the end of the year, they would have a good defense, but I am not like, I, I'm totally fine with both these guys. I don't, I think the only way I'd play them together is if I had an Oregon onslaught on the other side. Um, but I'm definitely intrigued. Um, Oregon, you summed up pretty well.

It's like pretty clear cut. Like I, um, you know, these top four pass receivers kind of just going to mix them in with Ryola. Um, the running backs I don't think I'm interested in Davis and still his like I don't think he's going to get the yardage he might get the touchdowns but the yardage to really unlock a ceiling Deerhill is always just interesting because he can like he's more way more explosive Um, so I don't mind some shots there.

I don't, this game is like UCLA hasn't really been tested and like their Calvin doesn't look near as good as it is now. And like, I mean, Malik Washington throws so many interceptions that like, it just, it wasn't even really a good, like, I don't know, good like sample, I guess. Um, but yeah, like, like Oregon's tied for the highest. Well, now they have the highest team total on the slate by half a point.

So, um, really good spot here I don't know how crazy ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ will get with these guys um but I think they're fine um the wide receivers will probably keep each other in check like I would think Johnson's probably the highest owned just because he's like I mean he had the volume game and he's the cheapest well I guess Hampton's cheaper but um yeah it should be a really good end of the slate Yeah, I think, yeah, looking at point per dollar, Johnson probably going to project the best because he's right in the middle there.

And, I mean, right now we have him as the second highest projected receiver, obviously. You know, news can change things, but I don't know that we're going to get much from this game. But that's it for the slate. I do want to peak. We do also cover night slate, which is where the best game of the day is. For those of you watching on YouTube, it's not this one. Minnesota Purdie, don't miss it. But this is the blank stone.

For anybody who's new or hasn't seen our full stone, we have the Friday stone posted on the site right now. It's a lot more colorful. It breaks down who our cash plays are, who our high upside plays are. We have projections, ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, obviously. But then we have defensive grades. So, oh. Utah State's a D plus on run defense. Do we look at Washington State's running backs for that reason?

But it gives you a little bit more information to make your decisions, snap percentage, targets per gameTarget ShareIn college football, target share is the same percentage of team targets, but it is often far more concentrated: many offenses send a third or more of their throws to one receiver or tight end.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Full explanation ↗, rushes per game, pace, and obviously the totals and spreads. So this is one benefit of Ship It Nation. I think this is one of the coolest tools in all of DFS. And then on top of that, we now have the Stone, which I've talked about a little bit before. But it takes everything from the Stone and organizes it nicely. Into essentially a spreadsheet.

You can filter it by, oh, I only want to look at the cash consider. I want to look at high upside guys. I want to look specifically at sneaky games. And you can filter it seven different ways to Sunday. But it gets you all of the information in a nice, tidy little spreadsheet. You can build lineups. You can save, I believe, up to twenty lineups, export, upload to DraftKings.

So a lot of good Like the user interface of this is the selling point for me, just having all of this information in front of you. So an awesome tool that we've just released this year. So like I continue to say it, no better time than now to get into Ship It Nation. But that's going to do it for this week's show. Any other thoughts on Saturday's slate, Kenny? Any nuggets on tonight?

There's only one game with a point total above fifty, but I think it's still going to be a really fun slate. Yeah, I... I guess I've kind of looked into it. I still need to build my lineups, but it should be a fun slate. Here's one, I guess. This isn't DFS, but this is a betting. I'm going to bet on a Bear Bachmeier anytime touchdown tonight. I think that's a good bet. That's what I'm going to go for.

I mean, Hawkins, I mean, obviously Hawkins scores touchdowns against anybody, but with LJ and Martin out, I think Bear Bachmeier is going to get every opportunity to score a rushing touchdown tonight. Yeah. And I mean, I haven't looked at the odds. It might still be plus money, but probably not. Oh, no, no, it's not. It's not. Is it minus? Okay. Okay. I figured it'd be either minus or very low plus odds, but no, I like that bet. And then watching. Yeah.

Do you want to say this? You want to read this comment out loud? Ganesha Moody. Hey, we'll take it. Honestly, that one's like, we just sounded out. That one's not as bad. It's just a lot of letters. It just seems like too many letters. It's scarier to look at than it is to actually say, but yeah, we're going to have fun tonight. We're going to have fun tomorrow morning, all the way into the evening. So, you know, we'll, we'll keep it going and Ship It Nation.

Like I said, no better time than now to join, but we're going to end the show. Like we end every show with the big guys. Rule number one, college football is fun. Enjoy building your lineups. Enjoy the sweat. Just be thankful that we get to watch college TV on our football or college football on our TV every single Saturday. And for the foreseeable future, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and we have content and Ship It Nation every single day.

But most of all, don't take a single day for granted. We never know. When it's going to be our last, but for my man, Kenny, I am dollar Bill. Let's go out to the college football streets this weekend and ship them for the big guy.