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Shows / NFL/ Thursday, September 17, 2026

Lions vs Bills – TNF Showdown Shippers | NFL Week 2 | DFS Picks, Plays & Process

Aired Thu Sep 17, 2026 Hosts Mike Petta, Tyler Tamboline, & Zach Trivett Runtime 1:03:34 Chapters 11 Views 6,215

From the archive. This breakdown is for the Thursday, September 17 NFL slate. Salaries, weather and picks were for that day.

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The Short Version

Mike Petta, Tyler Tamboline, and Zach Trivett expect Buffalo to score freely, with Detroit's depleted offensive line making the response less certain. Josh Allen is the primary captain and flex priority; James Cook captain is the clearest construction for omitting him. James Cook offers leverage if Buffalo's touchdowns come on the ground. Amon-Ra St. Brown can thrive through catches while trailing, and Jameson Williams remains a bounce-back captain option despite his drops.

Dalton Kincaid ($6,800) is a favorite flex play, while Sam LaPorta ($5,400) provides midrange savings. Ty Johnson's status determines the appeal of Frank Gore Jr. ($400); cheap backup tight ends also help fit the stars. Joshua Palmer and Keon Coleman offer affordable exposure to Allen at low ownership. Isaac TeSlaa draws split opinions. Tyler Bass leads the kickers, and Buffalo's defense draws interest against an immobile quarterback behind an injured line.

Plays Mentioned

PlayCallThe TakeAt
CAPTAIN Top captain preference because Detroit's secondary is expected to give him opportunities to dominate through the air and on the ground. 9:44
CAPTAIN Preferred alternative captain because quick targets and trailing volume can produce a huge receiving line even if Detroit loses badly. 10:19
CAPTAIN Low-owned bounce-back captain option whose missed opportunities in Week 1 could become a big score if he catches the ball. 11:06
CAPTAIN One of the two clear top captain options, with projected captain ownership still low enough to get overweight. 12:16
A possible $200 salary release if active, but his Week 1 inactivity makes availability and opportunity uncertain. 13:08
CAPTAIN Favorite captain at ownership outside Allen and Gibbs, providing leverage if Buffalo leans on him for volume and touchdowns. 16:15
CAPTAIN Ranked behind Cook among the alternative Buffalo captains because the offense is expected to move the ball freely. 16:33
CAPTAIN Named among the preferred Buffalo captain alternatives after Cook and Moore following strong Week 1 usage. 16:59
CAPTAIN A cheaper captain option at $5,400 that changes roster construction, though filling the remaining spots with chalk does not automatically make the lineup contrarian. 17:06
CORE Nearly essential in hand-built lineups, with a James Cook captain lineup the clearest non-injury scenario for leaving him out. 22:24
Supported in flex for anticipated passing volume, while captain opinions differed between excluding him and acknowledging a narrow path through distributed touchdowns. 22:54
VALUE Conditional $2,000 value if active, with his availability needing confirmation before finalizing builds. 27:17
VALUE A $2,400 backup option dependent on Johnson's status, though Gore's lower salary and Week 1 usage make him the preferred savings play. 27:17
VALUE Preferred over Ray Davis for the $2,000 savings if Johnson sits, with $400 potentially paying off on only a couple of points. 27:56
LEVERAGE Low-owned backup exposure can reduce duplication, with a short week after Gibbs' heavy workload and possible blowout snaps supporting the $3,000 play. 28:54
The hosts were split on the $1,400 punt because he could enter the backup rotation but did not play an offensive snap in Week 1. 31:45
CORE A major overweight priority because his reception and yardage ceiling can pay off without requiring a touchdown. 35:50
LEVERAGE Preferred cheap pivot from popular midrange options in large fields, with routes, low ownership and an $800 discount from Coleman. 38:57
LEVERAGE Affordable low-owned exposure to Allen, particularly in Allen captain builds, after playing half the snaps in Week 1. 38:57
CORE One of the favorite straight-up plays at $6,800, viewed alongside Moore as a top-two receiving option for Buffalo. 41:30
VALUE Strong midrange flex option whose savings from Kincaid help fit the expensive players and could attract more ownership. 41:30
LEVERAGE Cheap low-owned tight end exposure at $2,800 can differentiate Allen-heavy builds, supported by substantial snaps and a chance at a touchdown. 44:30
LEVERAGE A $600 tight end punt who played 43 percent of snaps offers a low-owned route to fitting the stars if a limited contribution is enough. 44:30
LEVERAGE At $1,800 with half the snaps in Week 1, he provides cheap touchdown leverage while preserving expensive core plays. 44:30
VALUE Preferred kicker and a strong midrange savings option, though fourth-down aggression and possible ownership growth are concerns. 47:57
VALUE Acceptable cheap flex option behind Bass, with both offenses' willingness to go for fourth downs limiting field-goal opportunities. 47:57
Lions The defense drew mostly negative opinions, but the hosts differed between avoiding it and retaining underweight exposure for a random touchdown. 49:21
Bills Defense opinions ranged from strong interest against Detroit's injured line and immobile quarterback to only limited interest at low ownership. 51:01
VALUE The hosts were split on his target opportunity, but his $2,800 FanDuel salary drew explicit support as a cheap way to access Detroit's passing game. 57:51
Opinions ranged from limited enthusiasm behind Moore and Kincaid to low-owned tournament interest, with his short targets and FanDuel price making a touchdown especially important. 59:34

DFS Terms Used on This Show

OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 11:06 ContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 17:32 LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 19:18 Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 27:56 FadeTo fade a player is to leave him out of your lineups on purpose, usually because you expect him to be popular or you think he is a poor play.Fade with a reason, not a feeling. If you can't say why a popular player will disappoint, you're probably just giving away points.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 34:43 Three-MaxA three-max contest lets each user enter up to three lineups. It is a small step up from single-entry.Give each of your three lineups a clear role. Make sure they differ in at least one major decision, like the main stack or the most expensive player.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 47:34 Cash GameA cash game is a contest that pays a large share of the field, usually close to half, the same flat prize. Fifty-fifties, double-ups and head-to-heads are the common cash games.Treat cash games as the steady base of your bankroll. Use one safe core across your cash entries on a slate, and save riskier ideas for tournaments.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 1:01:55

Full Transcript

13,810 words 66 min read 11 sections
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0:05

All Systems go. Clear your liftoff.. What's up everyone, Tyler Tamboline here, aka ToeTagginTambo, back for another edition of Showdown Shippers here on the Shippin' Nation YouTube station. Got Hoop, got Title, got myself, gonna break down all things for Detroit at Buffalo. Big game tonight, big boy total. It's gonna be a lot of fun. I'm excited to talk this one through. Hoop, we're back at it. It's a Thursday night football game we got here. What's going on with you, my friend?

0:58

How you doing? Yeah, obviously excited for this one being a Lions fan. I mean, it's a, you know, week two island game. Tough spot, obviously, for the Lions. We'll get into it as we, you know, get into everything here. But, you know, in Buffalo Stadium opening up, Buffalo looked great week one. Lions looked okay for a while, then a little rough. Got a pretty strong opinion on this game, so I don't want to give it away right out of the gate.

1:25

So we'll talk about it when we get into it. But excited for this one. Big total, a ton of big name fantasy guys on both sides. Definitely excited to watch it. That, folks, in the industry is called a tease. Not a good one. Not a good one, but a tease. He said, I got a good take on this game, but I'm not going to give it to you until later. I like that. Title, your boy.

1:47

I posted out that I loved Aaron Rodgers in the press conference the other day. I said, that's like me when someone's like, oh, but you can't play him, Tam, but he only had four targets. Like, I don't give a shit about the target list. Like, I don't care. We're playing DFS. He was talking about it differently, but they're like, how about Rowan Wilson targets? He's like, who gives a shit? Yeah.

2:04

Love your boy Rogers that was a good one how you doing my friend what's going on yeah I mean he always says that how he sees it whether you agree disagree whatever it is I can always appreciate that yeah I'm ready for this one big total fifty four and a half um Bills have taken money since open it was it was three now it's five and a half that's quite a bit of money and yeah superman josh against a poor poor defense uh what can go wrong for the Lions tonight Yeah, we'll see.

2:29

We're going to get into it. As usual, guys, we're going to break down captains. Then we're going to go through position by position. We'll talk about roster construction, composition, how people are building it out for tonight, ways that we see that you can get different within it. And then we'll get to FanDuel at the end.

2:41

Before we get into it, just very quickly, I want to remind people, if you want to sign up over at Ship It Nation, the promo is still on for the three forty nine. But if people just want to go monthly to you can just go down to join. Single sport, and then your options are right there for monthly, fifty nine a month or seventy nine, including SaberSim. If you go with the annual, you save some money there.

3:00

If you click at the top, not many communities giving out much money anywhere for that matter. Let me get my boy title in here, of course. But we're giving away over $45,000. And this week, We'll be right back. But you can go to ShipItGames.com and see all this.

3:32

But they're also in the running for a share ship this week where they could win up to, in this case, another $33,000 each because it'd be a hundred grand given out of the million dollars if it was won. So the rest, fifty percent goes to the prize pool, forty percent back to ShipItGames. But just noting it, Shane R., Jacobs C. We don't put full last names on. People know who they are. We've reached out to them. They are members.

3:53

They're good to go. It's been validated. And Bill S. So congrats to those guys. If you are a Ship It Nation member and want to get in to this week's, it's pinned in the NFL channel in our Discord. If you're not a Discord member, you want to get in there, that's where it's going to be posted every single week. All right, Hoop, I know you didn't want to give it away.

4:11

You still don't have to give it away, but give us your grand scheme overview for this game. We talked about it being, you know, a battle of the Titans here. We've got, you know, everyone talking about Josh Allen, Gibbs, all the other guys on each team that go with them, but then big total, you know, island game. How do you see this one playing out? What's your thoughts on this game?

4:29

Yeah, I mean, it's hard to not give it away at this point. So, I mean, it's not a huge giveaway, and I don't think people would be surprised, but I mean... The Bills are going to score a lot of freaking points today. It's just a matter of how many and how many can the Lions score. Can they keep it somewhat close? Because I don't think they have a chance of stopping Josh Allen on defense. Their secondary is horrible.

4:52

We saw it against the Saints, and it was disguised a lot in the first half. There was some fluke plays, but in the second half, I mean, the Saints offense was really doing whatever the hell it wanted. Josh Allen will be able to do whatever the hell he wants. They played... And I know it's not the same defense and the Lions defense was actually better at this point. Two years ago, it was in December.

5:11

I remember watching the game and the Bills scored. I mean, I think it was every single drive they came down and scored. Josh Allen was walking into the end zone, like untouched for like twenty yard runs.

5:23

Uh it's not going to be good for uh the the Lions defensively I mean the Bills are going to score a lot then it just comes down to can the Lions keep it close and it's the NFL like these teams always have a chance to keep it somewhat close like even if you're down three scores they can always come back a little bit so I wouldn't be surprised if the Lions keep it somewhat close but I mean the the Bills are going to be able to do whatever the hell they want uh offensively tonight and it probably is going to feature a lot of Josh Allen, another thing that is very difficult for the Lions to overcome.

5:56

If they are going to be a good offensive team, they need to protect Jared Goff because he is immobile back there. He can't move. I've been talking about it for years. He just cannot move back there. They have two offensive linemen out today, and that is definitely not good at all. Seeing the line obviously move a little bit towards the Bills. I think they're favored by five and a half, I believe is the consensus number.

6:20

But, man, I think that they could run away with it. But, again, it's hard to predict blowouts in the NFL. It really is just because of the way the game's set up. These teams can always come back and make it somewhat close. I'll say at some point in the game the Bills will be up by – at least two scores. They'll be up by at least fourteen at some point throughout the game. Like, can the Lions keep it close and bring it back a little bit?

6:42

Yeah, maybe, possibly, but it's going to be difficult for them with the offensive linemen down. So, I think it could, it has the potential to get ugly, but, you know, Josh Allen is going to be able to do whatever the hell he wants. So, that is my grand scheme overview. Yeah, title, do you have anything you want to add to that one? I can stop there, yeah. Not really. I mean, I'm on the same page.

7:05

It really comes down to can the Lions keep up with the Bills, which, yeah, I mean, can they protect golf? That's what they're going to need to do. Down to offense alignment is not good. Golf can't move, but they have the best running back in football. Aminra is a monster. I mean, Jamison Williams couldn't catch a cold. You cannot get a worse game than game one. But the air yards and all the advanced metrics look good.

7:26

Just for DFS, though, like the best quarterback in the league, the best running back in the league, both showing seventeen percent at captain. Maybe it's a little light. Maybe it's even twenty. But what it's nice is pretty much everything outside of those two is somewhat low on. And again, James Williams, Amin Ra, DJ Moore, Shakir, Kincaid, James Cook. There's plenty of guys that have to touch on upside hundred plus yard upside. That's not named Gibbs and Josh Allen today.

7:51

So curious to hear what you guys have to say at the captain position. Yeah, we're going to get to it in a second before I just add a couple things. I still don't see this. No matter what, because the way it shapes out, people still want Allen, Gibbs, just flipping sides. They want LaPorta and Kincaid. They want Moore and they want Jamison Williams or Amin Ra. There's always flips on both sides. So I see still more four twos.

8:13

More three threes, probably three threes, even more. And then also, you know, those that build to the five ones will probably build very similar five ones. So there's ways you can get it done tonight, leaving a couple thousand, $3,000, $4,000, whatever it might be, depending on the tournament size that you're in on the table. But they're just, yeah, like Nate said, they're not ever really that popular. Yeah.

8:31

If you wanted to go that way, LSU Knicks in here, shout out to Knicks as five one Detroit YOLO. That could definitely be a thing. Yeah, I think it's going to be interesting. Somebody else said something I was looking at there too. But anyway, one thing you mentioned, a couple things. I want to get it from the chat. We used to do this. Tell me tonight the score of the game and for who.

8:50

If you think it's put Detroit, you know, forty four to thirty seven or whatever. If you think they win, like whatever you think, put in the chat. Let us know who you win and what the score, what the score is, who you think wins, what the score is. Hoop, I'll go back to you. I don't know if you want to add more before title setup, but if not, you can just jump in to the captains.

9:07

Obviously, you're going to be on Josh Allen by the sounds of things. Like you said, he's going to do whatever he wants, but I want to see what the chat thinks the game total and the winner is going to be. Yeah, so for captain, I mean, there's definitely a lot of different ways to go.

9:20

I mean, both teams have a plethora of options in terms of who can score touchdowns, who can score multiple touchdowns, who can rack up ten catches, who can rack up one hundred and fifty yards and two or three touchdowns. There's multiple guys on both sides. So it doesn't have to just be Josh Allen. It doesn't have to just be Jameer Gibbs. If you're building a bunch of teams, I mean, you're going to include those guys. I think you'd be foolish not to.

9:44

And uh you know I agree with title's point like after those two anything else it's going to be easy to get overweight on but then even with those two at the seventeen to twenty percent range it's kind of easy to get overweight on those guys as well it's not like a number where it's crazy and these guys could go absolutely nuclear I mean for me I mean it's probably pretty clear you know my preference you know Josh Allen uh I think is a phenomenal play I think he can do he's gonna be able to do whatever the hell he wants uh tonight so know taking those two out of the conversation what stands out to me um

10:19

Amanra saint brown like if he's only going to be around ten percent I mean we saw it last week and even if if if golf is getting a lot of pressure which I do suspect to be the case like he'll get it out quick to amanra this could easily even if they get their ass kicked be a game where amanra racks up uh ten catches for a hundred and fifty yards and then if he finds the end zone great he can find it twice like he did uh last week so Phenomenal play there.

10:44

I think James Cook, you know, ten percent ish range. Like if it's not Josh Allen getting all these touchdowns, it could easily be James Cook. I think a lot of people are going to be focused on Josh Allen, DJ Moore, that sort of combination just because we saw it last week. Well, if it's not any of that and we still think that the Bills kick the lion's ass or score a bunch of points, it could be James Cook.

11:06

So those are the two that definitely stand out to me when when you look at the OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ right around ten percent on Cook. Ten percent on a mantra after that, guys that I'm interested in. You know, Jamison Williams, if he's going to be like around five, we haven't met five percent, five point five. Like he could have had he could have nuked last week if he just caught the freaking football. The problem is like he didn't catch the football.

11:30

And if you don't catch the football and you're a wide receiver, it's going to be hard to score a lot of fantasy points. He had some bad drops. Like, can he turn that around a little bit? Yeah, absolutely. I expect that he does. I think he's a good option at five percent. You got the tight ends and Kincaid, LaPorta, a lot of different ways you can go. DJ Moore, I think, is fine. So I would probably be looking to get exposure to a lot of these guys.

11:57

And when you have a game when there's so many offensive weapons, like what's needed at captain can kind of continuously change as the game is going on. Sometimes the salary restrictions come into play, and that could be the case today because we don't have a ton of value. We'll talk about it when we get into the flex spots. There's just not a lot of value.

12:16

Even though I think Buffalo wins this game and scores a lot of points, I still like some of these Lions guys as well. You're building a lot of teams. Josh Allen, Jameer Gibbs, obviously great options. But after that, like I said, guys I'm looking at, James Cook, Amonra, probably Jamison Williams. So I'll just rank the guys after Allen and Gibbs who are clearly the top. I'm going to say Amonra, James Cook – Jamison Williams would be my next three captains that I'm most interested in.

12:48

But I could see it being a lot of different guys tonight. And like I said, without a ton of value plays on the slate, like it could be anyone. I don't think it's necessarily going to be the highest scoring guy on the slate that is the captain. Yeah, I was just going to add that. I think that's one of the most interesting points on this. As someone said earlier, like a lot of these lineups are showing two punts and whatever. Like we'll see, by the way, too.

13:08

I know everyone's hoping this Skylar Bell guy plays at two hundred bucks, but it really is interesting that they're hoping for that because he was inactive last week. We're waiting to see Ty Johnson. We're waiting to see Skylar Bell. We're just naming a couple of them here. They're two hundred and Ty Johnson $2,000. People want to see these guys play because like, well, I just want to play all the dudes.

13:25

But like you said, there's there's also a scenario here where it is.

13:29

Tj moore or james Williams or Kincaid reporter or something like that now skip over those values and not have to worry about them anymore and then be able to see it yeah somebody showed um you know I think it was nades in there that said Ty Johnson's going to be there you know kickers you'd have to plug in instead if you think it's going to lead to that style of game I think kickers can be in play in a high scoring or low scoring game but I think if you if you actually think it's going to be a low scoring game and by the way nobody in the chat does like I think I The lowest total I think in the chat was forty eight.

13:57

So or forty seven or something. A bunch of people threw it up there. Also, everyone has the Bills by ten plus almost. So I think that's another thing you got to think about. It's not saying you're going to be wrong. I'm just noting it that it is interesting and title. I'll kick it to you. But. I don't ever think the Lions are out of it.

14:12

I get how important like the line is like everything that they need, like the, the line injuries I'm talking about, not the game line, but just noting it when you've got Dan Campbell and you've got golf and Gibbs and almond rye and James Williams and LaPorta and everything else is healthy on that offense. It gets cooking. I still think there's possibility, man. So I think it makes it for a more interesting game than people might think.

14:33

And then the other thing too, I'll just add quickly, just my thoughts falling on hoops before I kick it to you is like, Some of the guys that people might not think about, like I think you mentioned it in your opening about, I bet you people are probably down on Jamo. It definitely looks like it by the ownership because with no line, how can Goff get open? How would he even have time to hit him?

14:51

To me, that's like a more of an opportunity than it is a negative. It could be balanced, but I'm saying the reason it's still an opportunity is because if he has to scramble away from that line, one guy that's very fast and could be very open when he just gets to chuck it is Jamison Williams downfield. So it's like, there is possibility for a big play there still that I think a lot of people would just say, nah, there's no chance.

15:11

He's not going to have time to get that throw off. He just has to get loose a little bit and then get free. The other guy's definitely going to be loose, but your thoughts title, I'll kick it over to you. Yeah, the Lions are definitely alive, and we just saw what the Cardinals did to the Chargers week one as a lot bigger dog here. The Lions side is easy just because it's so condensed with this team.

15:30

Gibbs, Amin Ra, Jamison Williams, Sam LaPorta. Those are the only ones I really have interest in at captain. I didn't even mention Jared Goff. If he's the captain winner today, I'll move on to next week.

15:42

Again, sure, if he throws it to – one to jamo one to brown one to an offense alignment and one to LaPorta sure but it's just so concentrated I think if they absolutely go off it's going to be one of those guys carrying the load at skill position players a little more spread out on Buffalo but I guess not really it's still Josh Allen James Cook but they did rotate running backs more than I expected in week one Ty Johnson injury news is going to be pretty important because we'll get to flex but Ray Davis um Franks Gore, these guys are in play at very cheap price tags if you need value.

16:15

DJ Moore, Shakir at the receivers, Kincaid at tight end. How I'm looking at it, outside obviously of Gibbs and Josh Allen, James Cooks definitely my favorite captain on the slate. Again, it just leverages off of the Josh Allen stuff. He can slow the game down, which allows you to leave more money on the table a little bit.

16:33

Coming off week one where Josh had to do everything, on his back and James Cook couldn't get going in a really tough matchup, I think we could see them give the ball to James Cook twenty five times. Seventy eight and a half rushing prop, seventeen and a half rushing attempts can catch the ball to the backfield. He's only showing ten percent ownership. When do we ever see James Cook at ten percent captain? So he's my favorite at ownership. DJ Moore would be number two.

16:59

The new toy Josh Allen has. Again, I think that Bills moved the ball at will. And then Kincaid, I'm going to say is number three.

17:06

Very very good uh week one I think it was like five for one thirty he's playing more snaps running a bunch of routes he looks healthy I think the bill's smashed so dj Kincaid James Cook probably my favorites and then on the lion side Probably Jamison Williams, maybe Sam LaPorta just because he's $5,400, which is a way step down in price from all the other guys that kind of like to get on a little different roster construction.

17:32

But again, don't just play Sam LaPorta, leave one hundred dollars and jam and chalk elsewhere. That's not going to be ContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ by any means. Yeah. One thing I will say, just funny because the golf there's, I think around the industry, like tonight, there's nobody really high on golf and you do need almost a perfect storm. But one thing crazy hoop that I looked up and it has these, these don't matter at all. So I'm not saying to use this as I'm just showing you how it can happen.

17:53

The last time I think it was last time these two teams played, it was forty eight to forty two.

17:59

And that was the game yeah and and goff had almost five hundred yards and he threw five touchdowns and it was one to almond raw one to gibbs one to Tim Patrick your boy one to jamo one to dan skipper and then he said no touchdown for you Sam LaPorta but let me give you seven catches for a hundred and eleven yards so yeah It has zero to do with tonight. I know this.

18:22

I'm the biggest preacher of this, of like Sample size and two years ago not meaning shit. I'm just noting that when it's like, you know, it would have to be this perfect storm. That perfect storm can happen. And in a high scoring game, things get spread out. As Roger said in the further part of that rant yesterday was the ball goes to who's open. And that's what's going to happen here.

18:41

When you're down linemen, the ball definitely just goes to who's open, so you don't get rocked. I just got to get the ball out and see what happens. So just thinking about it from that perspective, just another angle to look at it from. I don't really have too much away from you guys on how you talked about it. I do think title is the best at explaining this one, where it's...

19:00

We know what the top two guys are, so if you can either get overweight and just say that's going to be the winning captains, or if you think about the slate differently, even if we're slightly down on the ownership right now on our initials for Amundra, Williams, Goff, DJ Moore, Kincaid, LaPorta, let's just use those guys. That's fine.

19:18

You could just still come underweight Gibbs, underweight Allen, overweight all those guys and still have a pretty nice pool in your portfolio and get plenty of LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ on all those other captains. I do think it's pretty interesting because we'll have to be like digging for value. We found the, who was the guy like Raridon, the old Raridon steak, the guy. The Jesus believer himself, he was the guy, right? And we found that, but we had to dig deep.

19:41

I feel like that's what we'll have to do today for value. And those that aren't doing that are going to just hope that Ty Johnson active when the game comes around. He's like, oh, I can just play him for $2,000. So we'll have to see. But yeah, Aaron, I literally just gave that preface to it. I said, it's not. There's a caveat on there. I mean, he made it clear. Yeah.

20:02

I'm just noting it because I've seen it like three, I was telling hoop before we hopped on. So just a little outside chat, you know, we were going through, I said like all these threads get into the algorithm and it's like, they're popping up and it's like, nobody likes golf tonight. He's just a horrible captain. To me, I was just saying to show just one example, it is possible. But again, I don't go off a Sample. They're so scattered. That game was in Detroit.

20:25

Yes. That game was in the, in the dome in Detroit. Josh Allen was two percent owned and nuked the main slate. I think it was like a three twenty five game with Shakir and just absolutely took took home all the cheese. Yeah. And we understand tonight is in Buffalo. It's their opening of the stadium and it's sixty degrees. We fully we fully have that. It's like we don't do this for a living. We don't follow any of that stuff or know what we're talking about here.

20:48

It's like it's just it's all just to give an example. It's not about that. Like there's so many variables in a football game. There's different coaching staff, whether it's how it's possible because it is. He's making the point it's hard to it is really hard to. Come up with a scenario in your head where golf captain is the play. It's, it's hard to do that. He was just showing the example.

21:08

I'm saying the funniest thing ever when people would say, yeah, but that over a thousand games, that would take X, Y, and Z to happen. It literally happened the last time these two teams played in the total that you guys all just wrote up in the chat. Everybody posted that total.

21:19

Basically so it can happen so that's my point but we'll move on um let's stay with the captains then Hooper or sorry the quarterbacks then outside of the captain reasoning like obviously Josh Allen up top golf not much for anybody but if you know in flex and how you're using it like I guess I'll give titles example over to you hoop he talked about like what about James Cook up in the captain and you mentioned too it obviously makes sense people are gonna be playing James Cook you get him at a low ownership but you'll have the money for james or sorry james How do you feel about that when you've already got James Cook up top?

21:53

Do you need Allen? Are you going to put them together? What's your thoughts on something like that if you only had one to three lineups, for example? Yeah, I mean, this game, it's tough from that perspective because just looking at this game, it's very, I mean, it's very, very difficult to make a case where Josh Allen is not in the optimal lineup in some way, shape, or form. So then it's like, how... What is the scenario where Josh Allen is not needed tonight?

22:24

And it's very clear. It's James Cook probably scoring, what, three touchdowns maybe? And then he's the captain that you need. So I think the only scenario where I'd feel comfortable not having, especially for hand-building, not having Josh Allen in the flux is if you're playing a James Cook captain team, if that makes sense. I really think that's – probably the only scenario outside of, like, injury or something where I would feel comfortable hand-building a team and not including Josh Allen.

22:54

And then with Goff, I mean, the price for a quarterback that should be throwing a lot, like, In the flux, totally adequate play. I mean, if you are under the assumption that, like I am, that the Bills are going to score a shit ton of points, you have to imagine the Lions are going to be throwing the ball a lot. So golf in flux definitely makes a lot of sense. But I think the Josh Allen conversation is more important, though.

23:31

It's like if you're not playing them in flux, it would, to me, need to be a James Cook captain team. Yeah, I think we're more aligned there. It's probably, I mean, obviously I'm not ruling it out because I think that's a bad way to play showdown in general. A lot of people rule themselves out of things that can happen, but I do think that's a curious way to do it because you can get a lineup with, let's say, forty six five.

23:49

That makes a ton of sense with a James Cook captain that, but doesn't require Josh Allen because the way the game plays out. The other thing I'm hoping at least is because again, I wasn't like super lobbying for it, but just noting how it would have to happen and funny that it could happen in the game that people were describing and has before.

24:04

But just saying it again is I'm hoping the golf hate bleeds into flex title because I think it's going to make way more. So like you said it earlier, how condensed is this Detroit team Again, people are going to make up a story about every five other guys we're going to, too, when we get there later. And I tell you all about who? Tom Kennedy or something like that.

24:23

And we tell you what school he went to and where he was drafted, just for the content purposes. But just in general, it's like, if you got Amin Ra, if you got Gibbs, who catches a ton of balls, to me, it's like, and they're playing from behind, and that just outdoes the split of the other side. You could still have Allen in that lineup because Goff is so cheap. So you could have double quarterback flex.

24:41

I think it's still interesting that Goff is not getting... A ton of love in the flex. Like, I don't know, maybe it doesn't come true, but it looks like he's coming in like thirty five to forty percent in flex. And a lot of it's bleeding down from the top and just so many other guys you can go to. I do think he's he's going to be fine, especially if you've got LaPorta, Aminrar, Jamo or even Gibbs, to be honest, up top.

25:03

Yeah, and I do think that holds true. I mean, a guy that can't run as a dog with so many shiny toys in the price range. Again, everyone loves James Williams, Amin Ra, James Cook, Gibbs, Josh Allen. You only can play so many guys when you're spending up for golf. The opportunity cost is one of those other big-name players.

25:21

So, yeah, for – I think we could see for like a notable name at quarterback, one of the lower flex or flex ownerships that we've seen at a quarterback like Jared Goff today. But it's mainly just due to who's around him. And yeah, Gibson, Josh Allen, that's playing all three of them is pretty tough. And then you kind of box yourself into similar paths when you do go that route.

25:42

Yeah, one thing I would just say to this, because if we think Buffalo wins tonight, you can make a real case for a min one Alan Cook, more Kincaid. I get that it boxes you in, but it's pretty much an if then statement. I think you'd have a very hard time building one hundred and fifty lineups and not getting like one hundred and forty five of them that way already.

25:59

It's actually the opposite where you could box yourself out because of that situation. And sometimes it is the tricklers where, you know, you have five lineups that didn't end up having that because you didn't set that rule. And you're like, oh, holy shit, that's the lineup that got to the top. I would have never thought a lineup with the first night when I tied for that ticket, it was like a JSN up top with Price in the flex, no Darnold.

26:22

And obviously if Darnold didn't get injured, it probably would have been helpful too, but I'm just noting it. It's like, again, you don't know what's going to happen on any given slate. So to me, that was just like an example where you don't really want to box yourself out of the situation and you're not really doing much there where you're going to gain a bunch. I would say like, again, a hundred and forty plus lineups are probably going to come with that anyway.

26:40

So title, I'll stay with you on the running back conversation to further it. I don't know if you're going to sell us on some Ray Davis and Jacobs sailors. What else? I mean, the thing about this slate is the positions kind of have their dudes and And it's really about roster construction and what value shows up.

26:58

And by the way, if that value does show up, like Ty Johnson comes true or something like that, you're going to have to think about, okay, what does that do for the roster construction after everything we just talked about? Yeah, I think running back is actually a little more difficult than people probably think. Like, yeah, Gibbs and James Cook, of course.

27:17

With that being said, I mean, when you want to play all the big boy studs on this slate, there's cheap options for the secondary options. Ray Davis is $2,400. We have to monitor Ty Johnson. If he plays, he's $2,000. If he's out like he was again last week, Franks Gore Jr. Is four hundred dollars. And Franks Gore Jr. Actually had two more snaps than Ray Davis last week. Actually, I take that back. He had six more snaps than Ray Davis.

27:43

He got more of the third down work than expected. Frank Gore Jr. That is. So if he's out, I mean, four hundred dollars, two points could be enough from him today. There's so many guys we talked about up top that just can nuke the slate. And then you get on a little different.

27:56

Roster construction maybe fading the mid-tier and LaPorta and bass or something so Ty Johnson news is important I would not build I have to do a Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ or whatever sure but I would not build until you do get that news and add in actives and I think I like frank or junior more than Ray Davis for the $2,000 savings just from what I saw last week them giving him more work On the Lions side, I'm curious to hear your hoops take because last week it was Gibbs playing like seventy five percent of snaps.

28:22

And then this Sione Vahiki, maybe I butchered the name, maybe I didn't. But he got a decent amount of work, about thirty percent of snaps. With that being said, he didn't really do too much with that. And I'm not convinced that they're just going to go right back to this Vahiki dude and not try Jacobs Saylors, who didn't get any snaps. They're going to play all the Gibbs that they can handle. But he needs a break once in a while. And both these guys are cheap.

28:47

$3,000 for Vahiki. Saylors, fourteen hundred. Both showing very, very low OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗.

28:54

Think I'm probably going to be overweight on these backup running backs on both sides and because when they do pay off and when they are optimal you're going to get a lot less dupes with it and before anyone asks you can a hundred percent play James Cook with their backup jameer gibbs with one of their backups these guys are just really cheap and kind of what makes it work um but I'm definitely interested to hear hoop's thoughts I know he has Detroit radio on and all this stuff if he has any lean on running back too before we do that and before the pronunciation please get in here I want to know how did you say that guy's name again I said it was Sione Vahiki.

29:28

Yeah. I think it's just Vahki. It's just Vahki. I think it's Vahki. The H-I is silent. Sione Vahki. Vahki sounded cooler. I was looking. I was like, I think the title just added like three or four letters into the guy's last name. I was like, yeah, the H-I, all them three extra letters are silent, but it's just Vahki, I think. I told you guys before I said it that very well probably butchering his name.

29:50

He hasn't done shit for me to know it yet. He played at the end of last season, I think. Towards the end of the season, someone got hurt. He was in there. Did he do anything? Probably not. It might have depended. I'm with you, though. I do like him a little bit here. I mean, short week. Gibbs, what, thirty five touches, like absolutely in the same number. You got the blowout run.

30:15

Like if that does happen where, you know, Buffalo's up by three touchdowns in the fourth quarter, $3,000's. So, yeah, I'm good playing him. Definitely keep him in the player pool. Ownership, I mean, should not be much on Vaki. We're showing him. Oh, seven. It probably even could be lower than that. I don't know. It is tough with the value just because there's not a ton.

30:38

But yeah, I'm good with, I kind of just want to call them Vahiki though now because I kind of like that. It sounds nice. Vahiki. It sounds better than Baki. Vahiki sounds way better. So what do we got here? What are the nuggets? Anything good in there? This one came up. Yeah, actually, I remember this because I think it was, yeah, that new one, like Mike Nuggets, NFL or whatever they posted.

30:58

I saw the video of this last week and it reminded me, I was like feeling like hoop watching the Detroit radio, but it was Campbell was saying about how Vaki is viewed as ready to contribute as a runner, protector and receiver. He said, and then Dan Campbell said it by committee too. He said, now Vaki, I see Vaki getting some reps too now. I don't see whatever else he added to that. So the main thought was that both of those guys could be in the mix.

31:20

And so, How the game goes tonight, we'll have to see, but it sounds like both of them could be out there at least a little bit. So in your one-fifty pools and stuff like that, I think it would at least be somewhat interesting from that perspective. Yeah. You know, I really don't need to say much about Gibbs or Cook. Like, there's no more of a discussion to be needed there. But Vocky, good with him. I mean, I wouldn't struggle with sailors.

31:41

I mean, you said the dude didn't even hit the field? No, he didn't.

31:45

Yeah, I mean, I would – why would they all of a sudden go to him over Bakke so like Bakke and then on the Buffalo side we need to see uh on Ty Johnson is there any nuggets in there on Ty Johnson curious about that just because uh the news is limited the latest I see is limited practice going to need to see before the game um you know whether or not he's good to go but at two heads This was from last night.

32:13

I looked it up earlier. There was something from four hours ago that hasn't hit this yet for the Nuggets, but it did say that it was just talking. It was like a UConn article where he went to school. UConn hopes to see their guy in the opening of the new stadium and all of that stuff. So we'll have to wait and see. But yeah, it's one of those things that... Yeah, because that is interesting. Like Franks Gore Jr.

32:32

Actually getting on the field, what did you say, four hundred bucks? Like that would be... Something that's definitely welcome on the slate. It could be a slate where a goose egg is in play or two fantasy points is what you need out of a two hundred or four hundred dollar guy. That's definitely in play on the slate. So need to wait on that. Good with Vicky at $3,000 and then Gibbs and Cook. I mean, they speak for themselves.

32:57

I was trying to look up, man, just to see while we were doing this. Remember this guy? Title's hoping that Vahiki Rafiki, what is this guy's name? Rashiki or whatever. He pulled it up to this guy like on Lion King. He's hoping that that lifts him to the top of the tournament. And then there's this guy too for the wrestling fans out there, Rashiki. Yeah, I remember that, dude. I do remember him for sure.

33:19

He'll just put his ass in your face and just help you, man. So there could be some stuff going down. Title might be on to something tonight with these guys. Little neck's too sharp. An MMA fighter last week was named Rahiki. Oh, yes, it was that day. No, he got knocked out. He got knocked out in the third. Yes, that was a hell of a fight. But you guys do remember. The Reardon conversation.

33:41

We spent a lot of random time on Reardon, you know, talking about the name, the pronunciation, and look what happened. I don't know, man. Is that going to happen with our boy Fahiki tonight? Well, I think Rikishi got kicked out the WWE. I think Rafiki got old and passed away in the Lion King series. And now this other dude lost the fight. This sounds like a losing cause right now. But there's two arguments.

34:02

The other argument is last time we had a deep conversation about somebody's name. On the show, they scored the first touchdown of the slate. It goes with this guy, man. Andrew, no. He said, I have no idea who to fade and who to play. Here's a secret. Nobody knows. So all the shows that you're watching that tell you about like winners and we got this and all, they don't know shit. No one does.

34:23

But what we're trying to do is help you play the game so that you can think about these things. And I think on a night like tonight, it's best to take some stance. Like, you know, this one's aggressive, but love the first profit. Always coming in, dropping nuggets into the chat. Says people just creating value, even if it doesn't exist. That's the joke side of it. But what he said earlier, he said fading Gibbs so I can leap the field.

34:43

Well, it's aggressive fading Gibbs, but seventy five percent of the field, maybe eighty is going to have Gibbs in their lineups, whether it's captain or flex. If you FadeTo fade a player is to leave him out of your lineups on purpose, usually because you expect him to be popular or you think he is a poor play.Fade with a reason, not a feeling. If you can't say why a popular player will disappoint, you're probably just giving away points.Full explanation ↗ that, it's what I talk about all the time. You're in a room of one hundred people. Eighty of them are going to have Gibbs, twenty of them are not.

34:57

If you don't need Gibbs at the end of the night, you get to jump into the next room with twenty people and say bye bye to the other eighty. So it's all how you're building for the slate and making sure that you're dialed into what everybody else is doing. That's all we can take is the information we have at hand and then be able to apply it. And that's really like Nate says, process, lineup, construction, composition.

35:16

We want to try and think about that even more so. Hoop, I'll go back to you. Do you have anything you heard on the radio from these other guys or anything else you've got there? If not, you can take us into the next position, but I'm just curious if you had anything else at running back.

35:27

We do have some sports talk radio info for the wide receivers, which I'll get to, and I'm sure you guys can kind of figure out who it is, and it's been the topic for a while. But the other guys, like Amonra, absolutely love them. I love them in the game script where I think that – Buffalo scores a ton. Lions are going to be trailing. Like, I think he could rack up a ton.

35:50

You know, we talked about those guys are so valuable in this sort of format that can can fully get there without having to score a touchdown. And that's Amonra. I mean, he can rack rack up a ton, you know, eight to ten catches, one hundred and twenty to one hundred and fifty yards like that. I don't know. What's that? Twenty five, twenty six fantasy points somewhere in that range like that'll do the trick. So in on him a ton.

36:16

DJ Moore looks cheap, but a lot of people are going to see that just because of the big week one performance. Jamison Williams, bounce back spot. I mean, it was rough week one. Maybe it's just because not much preseason play. I expect him to do much better. I think he's a good play. Shakir, I'm always a Shakir guy. A little worried about him. I think DJ Moore, Dalton Kincaid, who we'll talk about next, are kind of the one-two there now.

36:43

And Shakir could be down to number three and not a ton of touchdown equity with a guy like Shakir. So the guy that's gotten some talk, and I don't know, people talk about it a ton, is TeSlaa. Said they want to get him some reps. Tesla. Title's got the proper pronunciation on him. Like TeSlaa. Like Coleslaw. Another guy that hasn't done shit to deserve it. Hasn't done anything, but man, when he gets the opportunity, he does it all. He has these amazing catches.

37:15

Just needs opportunity. Does it come? I don't know. He had a goose egg in week one. Um, I'll definitely be in on him, especially if I think the Lions are trailing and needing to pass the football. I think he's a good play. And then you got the, you know, random Keon Coleman, Joshua Palmer guys, I think better suited in those, uh, uh, Josh Allen captain team.

37:37

So, um, those guys Coleman $4,000 Palmer, was it just the one touchdown that he caught last week? Um, It was, yeah, just one, one touched a thirty four yard touchdown he caught. So pretty random play. But again, in Josh Allen captain teams where we're struggling with value, I think both those guys are fine options in Flex Coleman Palmer. But yeah, I mean, it's pretty straightforward. I love Amonra.

38:06

I would say he's the one I'm going to be trying to be above the field on. And then Shakir is the one I'm probably not as excited about. Yeah, I'm curious, Title, where you're at, because Shakir, again, we'll see what he gets and what it actually shakes out like. But when he's he's sort of right there, he's lower priced, actually, than Kincaid. But it's like people are going to go to Kincaid more. LaPorta, who's just underneath him. Jamo, who's above him.

38:32

It does feel like he's the forgotten man or the fifth of those five that I just mentioned. Yeah, I agree with that. To be honest, I think rightfully so. With DJ Moore now in town and Kincaid fully healthy, I'm worried just the ADOT's so small. He really has to catch eight, nine balls, it feels like. I actually prefer at OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ and at price since we need value. Joshua Palmer and Keon Coleman. Both of them are out there running routes.

38:57

Coleman played fifty percent of snaps last week. Joshua Palmer played thirty percent of snaps and they're both showing about ten percent ownership. I can go to Sam LaPorta and drop down to one of them in very large field stuff to get different. Tyler Bass or Jake Bates and drop down to Palmer or Keon Coleman and leave the money. Probably prefer Palmer just because he's eight hundred less in a vacuum. I'd say maybe Coleman. He played a little more snaps.

39:22

But we know like when these guys are on, they're going to be on the field. And when they're on the field, Josh Allen will throw to anybody that's open. And he's so good at buying time. And this defense is terrible. I think you could have all the time in the world. I think both Coleman and Palmer are. A decent upside on this slate at low ownership and low pricing.

39:40

And then, yeah, on the Lions side, the only three receivers that got any work at all was Aminra, Jamison Williams, and Taula. Kalief Raymond getting out of there was pretty big for Taula, at least like running routes. He was on the field.

39:52

Seventy percent of the time, but it was all cardio and Until I see different, I think I'm just going to continue to think that how is this guy going to get a target when it's Amin Ra, J-Mo Gibbs is the first three reads, and LaPorta is the fourth. So I'm actually going to go Palmer and Keon Coleman ahead of TeSlaa in that range down below.

40:10

The thing I will say, like, you know, like point there again, I just listen and kind of think how I think there is what you said is perfect on that Detroit side. If they're up in the game, you got to think it comes from the guys that we expect. If they're down in the game, you got to think they throw it to the guys that we expect. So to me, it's like harder for that to be found.

40:26

Now, what could happen and we'll save it because we'll get there next. We go to tight end. I could definitely see like Brock Wright.

40:32

Getting a touchdown or something like that's where I'd rather have value thoughts there so as far as real values not the ones we're making up or showing wrestlers and lion king dudes from but just noting it I do think your point on Palmer Coleman um and then again if someone wants to pay up for probability Shakir but for the actual values down low of like probably take my chances there. Let those guys get in where they fit in. And that's Josh Allen for you.

40:57

I mean, he's going to, he's the new age Mahomes. Like I talk about it. It's just, you got to play him. And I think I said it earlier, but Buffalo today, Buffalo, I think there's another one coming up anyway, but yeah, we will see Buffalo again. Detroit's on the, the Sunday game in October to start it off too. So like we ended up seeing a lot of these teams in what feels like a lot of these Island games.

41:16

I think it's going to be a spot where you're getting, he'll just spread it out a bunch. So those guys would make more sense to me than trying to figure out the stuff on the Detroit side, hoop, anything else you want to add? If not, you could take us into tight end. Tight end.

41:30

I mean, Dalton Kincaid is, probably one of my favorite straight up plays on the slate um $6,800 coming off the big week um you know I think he's the number one slash number two it's I think him and DJ Moore the the one and two options maybe one a one b and that's kind of why you know myself and title not as interested in a guy like Shakir because I just think these are the the top two options I think kinkade's a phenomenal play I think Sam LaPorta great play I mean and kind of need the value and that's probably why you're seeing the OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ discrepancy uh between the two we're showing LaPorta

42:09

Twenty eight twenty seven so I do think more people end up going to LaPorta uh then uh kinkade we're only showing it like a two percent difference I think it can be wider because people are going to need that extra extra money on the slate so both those guys good plays um You know, I'll let Title kind of go in because he kind of knows the snaps and how many snaps these backup, not backup guys, but these, you know, cheaper Dawson Knox, Brock Wright, Hawes.

42:37

I'll let him talk about those three because they're all getting a projection and we need value on the slate. So I like the top two guys. Curious to see what Title says about these other ones on the slate. He's on mute. Mute donkey. That's rare. This is a wild start to the season where I still haven't left the show for a pee or talked on mute, and you guys have both left. That's a long time coming. You know what, though?

43:03

I got a guy working outside in my backyard, and he's like, I saw him in mute for that. He could come back around, but just noting it. What I said was I just mentioned the guy, Patrick Mahomes, and it's actually his birthday today, but I looked it up because the chat, I think it was, Somebody here mentioned it. Yeah. Wavy Davey said, whoa, it's Ty Johnson birthday today. Too bad he's questionable. We'll see.

43:25

People are thinking he's going to get in the game. So we got to see what happens tonight. But if he's active, yeah, a little birthday action for Ty Johnson as well. But Ty, I'll let you take it from what Hoop had passed over to you with the snaps and what you see at the tight end position for sure. Yeah, the Bills are a team that's also run some thirteen personnel and a decent amount of twelve personnel.

43:43

They like Kincaid on the field, but Dawson Knox is a good blocker and can catch the ball a bit. And Jackson Hawes is a very, very good blocker. So they will go some heavy stuff. If you're going to play three tight ends. Knox played or Kincaid played. Seventy two percent of snaps. Knox, sixty seven percent. Hawes, forty three percent. These guys are all cheap enough where they're going to be on the field. Random things can happen. Hawes is six hundred dollars.

44:06

Knox is $2,800. Totally fine with both of them. And then, yeah, Brock Wright on the other side is eighteen hundred and he played fifty percent of snaps. Sometimes they're running two tight ends as well. So with all that being said, these tight ends, obviously LaPorta, Kincaid, we keep talking or have talked about them, but three tight ends that are very cheap, that are going to be LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ and that are going to be on the field quite a bit.

44:30

And you guys know when you get to the red zone, especially on Dan Campbell side. Anyone, like you said, Skipper scored that game. Anybody is viable to catch the football, and that six points goes a long way. So, yeah, I'm going to play these backup cheap tight ends because it's a way to get different when I'm eating Josh Allen chalk and all these up top guys that I do like a lot.

44:51

I think we have enough in terms of backup running backs, backup tight ends, Coleman Palmer a little bit. There's enough ways to get different while still playing the best plays in most of your roster spots. Yeah, I agree with all that. This is a good one from Aaron. Always chiming in with the comments that hoop consecutive show, no bathroom break counter needs to be in the bottom, right? It's been going now. Like there should be a counter. We might have to get that.

45:13

He's going to get a UTI because he's holding it. That or I'm going to end up peeing my pants in the office. Because of that title, that's what's going to happen. We got a fill in today. What happened? Yeah. The UTI finally kicked in. Or I'll be wearing a Depends at some point here. Oh, buddy, at the Detroit, what was that? The Hard Rock Casino. People were rocking those. And we were in Michigan down at the slots.

45:37

They'd be wearing the Depends or the adult diapers or whatever so they don't have to leave their bonuses on their Huff and Puff machines. Yeah, man, they don't mess around on those slots, dude. They don't want to give up the bonus, man. They think they're going to miss out. What I was saying earlier, just noting it, I know our guy Dala Bill was in the chat, said Brock Wright first TD incoming. That's sixty five to one.

45:55

If you want to get it on the action there, Vaki, that's even better. Vaki's only sixty to one. So if you're if you're worried about your first touchdown bets, but then you're just going to watch Josh Allen walk in or Gibbs walk in and start it off. And then we just see, do they hit further than that or is that, you know, spread out after that?

46:11

But I think this is what I was mentioning, whether it's Dawson Knox, Brock Wright or man, really, you know, Jackson Hawes, like, I don't know, like any of these guys at their price could be involved for mixing it up in that situation. The thing is it's, it's the bill side. That's more interesting. Like I said earlier, because they do spread it out more to me on the Lions.

46:31

It's like you said, Gibbs, Amin Ra, JMO, LaPorta, If you want to sprinkle a Vocky, a TeSlaa or a Brock Wright, but I would rather just have Brock Wright. He's super cheap. Then, you know, eighteen hundred bucks if you're going to do that and just hope he disrupts it a little bit. But on the other side, Josh Allen does spread it out enough. Dawson Knox always every time we play Kincaid or it's supposed to be Kincaid game.

46:53

It feels like it's a Knox game, like it just happens or they look the same, similar number. You're like, oh, Oh, yeah, no, it's Knox. That's Knox. So it happens, right? But you got to look at it from that perspective. I think they do spread it out a bit more. So you'd have to look at what your roster construction looks like. I also think that's another interesting thing, Hoop. I'll kick it back to you for kickers and Ds. But if you had like a Josh Allen...

47:14

With someone in the flex tonight, like even a two, four Josh Allen, whether I'm saying like, it's a, it's a Buffalo captain and Josh Allen, and then a second guy from Buffalo in the flex. And then, you know, how tight the, the roster, like, you know, how tight the, or how condensed I should say the, the passing is and stuff on the Detroit side. You could fill it out with four Detroit guys still, no problem.

47:34

So if you want to do that and then hope that, It's not anyone in particular on the Bills outside of it's Josh Allen up top. I think that's an interesting way to build for some of your one to Three-MaxA three-max contest lets each user enter up to three lineups. It is a small step up from single-entry.Give each of your three lineups a clear role. Make sure they differ in at least one major decision, like the main stack or the most expensive player.Full explanation ↗ stuff tonight. And then having some of those in your portfolio could be a good idea as well. But hoop, I'll kick it over to you. Kickers, D's, anything there? Always like the kickers. I mean, they're cheap. We need some value on the slate.

47:57

Good with both. Definitely prefer bass over baits. I mean, the one drawback here to the kickers, it's very obvious. Like, both these offenses will be very aggressive on fourth and one, fourth and two, fourth and three in the red zone. They'll both go for it, which definitely is a drawback to the kickers. But if we do think it's a high-scoring game, they can make up for some of that with some additional extra points. So good with both.

48:19

But, man – I really like the Bills defense here tonight. The Lions offensive line dinged up. Goff can't move, cannot escape pressure whatsoever. Almost had a – I mean, he should have. I don't know. It was a weird rule. I don't know if you guys saw that in the Lions and Saints game, but it was really a fumble. They picked it up. The Saints scored a touchdown, but it was ruled an incomplete pass. I didn't realize that was the rule.

48:47

Like if your intention is to throw forward, but you get hit and you actually throw backwards. Yeah, since when?

48:52

Right that's that's been the rule yeah I was trying to figure that out because it seemed pretty clear to me it was a fumble I thought your hand could still be moving forward but the ball has to like move like yeah that went way backwards that was yeah it was backwards but they the guy that Mike perera came out and said if your intention is to go forward and you get hit it's still considered a forward pass but I guess long story short I mean it would have been a touchdown for the defense, like something like that can happen where it is an actual fumble tonight.

49:21

So really like the Bills defense. I'll make sure I get some of them and then lines defense. No, but I guess, you know, that anything can happen. It's one play for, for the defenses. So as much as I usually shit on the defenses, I still keep them in, but I'm usually underweight. But it would be tough for me to envision a path for the Lions defense outside of like a random touchdown tonight.

49:41

But I do actually really like the Bills defense and I'll make sure to get them into my lineups tonight. And what's the OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ looking like? Not that it matters all that much. Fourteen, fifteen percent. So, yeah, I like the Bills defense quite a bit. Yeah. I like that too. I think it was, you know, James Cook, captain, uh, Bills D I think Josh Allen, captain Bills D I think those are, you know, just a couple of interesting ways to do it.

50:03

I know like an onslaught or a five one, but I think like, again, when my takeaway earlier, like I said, only five ones are going to be crazy popular. They never really are, but when people do them tonight, I think a lot of them will look a lot, uh, pretty much the exact same. So that, that's what I was going to say. Also shout out to Bills Madison. Remember this one movie? You're not cool. Yeah. Unless you pee your pants. That's going to be hoop over there.

50:24

So good. On the other side. It's hilarious too, by the way, Dan Campbell-esque. Someone said it might've been Ben Johnson when he was there, but Dan Campbell could do this too. Someone that comes in as one of the new O-linemen is actually part of the sneak special play that he's got saved for some other time. And they're like in a game tonight where they need it. And so they, you know, the way the game goes, say like, let's just bust it out now.

50:45

And that guy's ready to go. And they make him active ready and then put them in and run the play. That could happen for sure. That could be speaking of one play. That could definitely be something. Um, let's see anything else. No title. Anything you want to add on the kickers and defense or how you might be using them tonight? Just thoughts there.

51:01

People did mention Lions D and how Josh Allen can make plenty of mistakes, you know, over his time, but what's your thoughts on the kickers and D's here? Yeah, I mean, sure, I guess, but not what I'm going to be hoping or cheering for today. There's enough Coleman, Palmer, Wright of the world. There's enough value. Frank Gores, if Ty Johnson out, I do not like Lions D one bit. I think they get carved up. Bill's defense, a little more interest. Still don't love it.

51:25

They're low enough on, though, sure. I think Bass is a phenomenal play, but I'm worried that twenty two percent gets a little steam. Him and LaPorta just are screaming great mid-tier options. So a little worried there. But again, there's enough value that we talk about at these skill position stuff where you can go any kicker defense and find it to Shough, Palmer, Coleman, Knox and leave the money just one V ones. And I wouldn't be surprised if they get outscored at all.

51:50

And last thing I do want, if someone in chat knows, like, is that a rule change? Has it always been like that? Because I don't. Yeah. No, that wasn't the play. I mean, if you get a chance, go back and look at it. The arm was clearly coming forward, but when he threw the ball, it was behind the line of scrimmage. So he was throwing it, and it went like – It happened in the Denver game too.

52:11

Bo Nix against the same thing, and they called it. So I don't know if it's a new rule or if I just have been a donkey this whole time. It must be a new rule. It must have changed at some point because that was never the case. If you throw it and it goes – You throw it backwards, it's considered a fumble. And the players thought it was a fumble.

52:27

Everyone thought it was a fumble, but then they reviewed it and said incomplete because it's your intention. So I think that changed. I don't know. It could be wrong. I feel like if it did change, they should have said it changed. Like they did a terrible job explaining it. And again, I... I don't know. I'm not a ref. I don't get paid for it. I was confused. What did you say? This is just quickly on it. It said Bo Nix had a play rule.

52:50

I went to the Bo Nix one because he mentioned it and popped up. The other one didn't. It said, had a play ruled as an incomplete pass rather than a fumble because officials determined his arm was moving forward while he was behind the line of scrimmage. The rule context, under NFL rules, if a passer is behind the line of scrimmage and his arm is moving forward with intent to pass when the ball comes loose...

53:10

It is ruled an incomplete pass rather than they must have changed that because that's the term that Mike prayer used his intention was to throw it forward so that it must have changed like if you're intending on throwing it forward but you get hit and it doesn't go about intention now do you know when it did it say when that rule was changed or anything on there No, it just shows. It had to be just this year because it was always a fumble in the past.

53:35

Like, they never even talked about that. Like, if it comes out as a pass and is going backwards, it's a fumble. That was always the case. It must have changed. At least they'll stay consistent. I mean, they did it with Bo Nix. They did it in the Lions game. Like, it happened week one. Now we know. Like, as long as you get consistency. Yeah. Um, yeah, like people said, let's bring more subjectivity into this just so you can make it even harder.

53:57

You know, no, no sense making it easy. That's the way it usually goes. Um, all right. Was there anything else I was just trying to, Oh, the other thing I was going to ask you about title just while I had you there. Cause somebody mentioned it earlier. And I think it was a guy, Timmy dubs in the Ship It Nation Discord said he might not be able to make it live. I haven't seen him. Um, did you, I just forget.

54:13

And we didn't really spend a lot of time on it. I talked about playing some of those mid range guys up top, but any thoughts on, uh, using the kickers in captain tonight? I'm not going to. I think these offenses are good enough to punch it in when they do get down there and the willingness for both teams to go for it on kind of short yardage stuff.

54:33

When kickers are up top, and again, I rarely do it, so maybe I'm not the Person to ask, but I kind of tell myself that it's more of a low scoring game. Both offenses can stall and that five field goals or four field goals is like, yeah, the most points pretty much. So I'd be surprised today if today was the day. Yeah, funny enough, this is, again, I've already prefaced it, but I'll do it again.

54:52

But it has nothing to do with that game. Just noting that that one game I brought up earlier of Detroit Buffalo when it was like forty eight to forty two or forty four, whatever it was. Bass, I think he had two fifty yarders plus a forty yarder and six extra points. So I think what would that mean? It was like fifty yarders, ten, forty yarder, fourteen. About twenty. But still would have been nowhere near the captain optimal that game, which is what the other big dogs did.

55:19

And you had Goff at four hundred ninety four yards, five TDs. You had Amonrod ten for like one seventy eight and a touchdown. You had a seven for one. You had all these other guys going off. So just does make it seem really difficult. If you're like I said earlier, what you're building for, if you're building for like this crazy under. But even then, is the kicker going to outdo Goff? Again, you need all those dudes to fail.

55:40

Amin Ra, both quarterbacks, Gibbs, Cook, everything. You need a lot to go your way. So I think I'd be more inclined to do like Shakir, LaPorta, Jamo, Moore, something along those lines where you're going to be able to still eliminate needing those values that everybody else is going to be trying to pick through. Because we were, as first profits, like making up values on the go. Not really, but also kind of. So that makes it sense for sure. Yobi tries his back, man.

56:06

Got the World Championship and said, how many grams of protein are in that shaker? What's the number? I had it right before I came on. Just a full scoop, which I think is thirty grams. But this is just stone cold water. So it was thirty. All right. Well, any more questions, Yobi? Throw your money in the chat. By the end of the season, this could be like the hoop tracker for the count-up. See how much Yobi gives us each show. We'll be retired, man.

56:32

Yobi, it's okay to give like five cents. I'll still answer for you. Or zero cents. Or just type it in chat. I respond to these people in chat anyway. Now you're in good with us, man. All you got to do is post a question. Stephen Nabers is back in the building. Stephen Nabers worldwide. He says, hoop, that hoodie is fire, bro. Yeah, it's nice. It's a little thin. I don't even know. Technically, it wouldn't be like a thin material thing. So perfect for this time of year.

56:57

I don't even know where I got it from. Yeah. And Ty, that's funny. He brought that same – yeah, back to Nabers. That was funny too on that game. It has nothing to do with tonight. It's just hilarious to look up. Ty Johnson actually did go nuclear in that game. He had like a hundred and fourteen yards or something like that, I think. So, yeah, I saw that too. All right. Did you have anything on FanDuel that you saw? No. Shakir is even tougher.

57:21

Click over there. $8,200. Like, man, it would be tougher for him, I think, to be in the inoptimal sort of team. Kickers defense all price in a similar range. You go down to these value plays. Keon Coleman, $5,600. That's kind of a real price tag. I mean, he's right there below the kickers and the defenses. That's probably a pretty tough click. Tesla. At $2,800, I do like quite a bit.

57:51

I'm going to be in on the TeSlaa stuff. I mean, I don't care. I was in on him for basketball. I was in on him for all this other stuff. Like, I'm just going to continue on. Like if he gets an opportunity every time they give an opportunity, he's made a legitimate play, I guess. So like if he gets any sort of opportunity, it can turn into something big. So I'm going to continue to ride him. He's only $2,800.

58:11

I think a really good price tag there. Palmer, thirty two. I know title like those guys. Palmer is. $2,400 cheaper than than Coleman uh and then you got like Ty Johnson $5,000 that's you know you got to kind of do something at those price tags so a lot of this stuff pretty similar overall a couple pricing differences uh for sure uh is he talking about we were talking about Nabers our boy So maybe you should play Shakir.

58:44

Just use it to flip the whole thing around because you asked the question right after he said Shakir would need a lot. So maybe you should just do that. By the way, Joshua Palmer making up more value here. It's his birthday on Tuesday. So this would be his chance to get his birthday touchdown would be the week two touchdown for Joshua Palmer. So maybe he's the guy over there. I don't have too much else to add when it comes to that title.

59:07

Any final thoughts from you? I know the birthday people out there were kicking rocks for the first three quarters with Jawan Johnson goose egg until he kind of finally got there. But no, yeah, nothing too much more to add on FanDuel. Like Jackson Hawes, Franks Gore Jr., Tisla... Maybe Jacobs sailors. If you want to take that chance, like those guys are all really, really cheap punts on FanDuel that allow you to easily spend for the, the Josh Allen, the Gibbs, the studs that we want.

59:34

And yeah, Shakira's price only four hundred different from DJ more on FanDuel. To be honest, maybe I even like it more on FanDuel and just like, all right, you get all the, the LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ and the OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ discounts. And if he does it, And the flex, like that's a complete way to get different. But the problem is it's even harder. Shakir's style fits even worse on FanDuel than DraftKings with that half point versus full point. So he really needs to get a touchdown.

59:56

But no, Hoop covered it well. And I'm excited. We got a great Thursday night football game. So yeah, I'm expecting some points. Yeah, Shakir looks like Rikishi, almost, if you just put the words in a scramble. Missing the A, but just saying, maybe that's where we were going with that one tonight. It's a Shakir night. But I do think somebody said here, like, would you play Knox in a lineup for Dre?

1:00:15

We talked about it a little bit earlier, but again, it's like, I don't see it as... You know, like Ingram the other night, like a five one the other side, and then you got Knox in the lineup. I definitely don't see that. But if you have Josh Allen and the captain just chucking it to a bunch of dudes or whoever he could be spreading it out to, that'd be a way to get a Josh Allen lineup that doesn't play Ty Johnson.

1:00:34

If he even plays, we'll have to wait and see. But just noting it, if he plays, it's going to be a popular value. So that would be something to keep in mind where you'd be able to get different that way. People do like Kincaid.

1:00:43

People do like more you know you'd end up being able to fill it out up the middle you could keep more or you could just move over to those Detroit guys where it's super condensed like I talked about so just just think about how you're playing it not who it is anything can happen nobody knows who's going to do everything or else we would just build these insane parlays every night and just crush it's like build the exact line it wouldn't be fun if that was the case and everybody wants to win money and it is fun when you win but there'd be no game to play if we knew the answers so hoop any final thoughts from you man before we get out of here Fun game to kick off week two.

1:01:13

I mean, just excited to watch it from an entertainment standpoint, you know, despite the big DFS. So good game to kick off week two. And we'll continue on with all our content here throughout the week. So make sure tune in to all the shows. And the three of us will be back Sunday morning, nine a.m. Eastern to cover the full slate. So, yeah, let's let's get the week off to a good start here and continue on.

1:01:36

Yeah, if you guys want to check out Ship It Games or Ship It Nation, go to the site. Like you said, the games. So we got Detroit Buffalo tonight. Like, it should be good no matter what. Like you said, no matter how it plays out, it'll either be, you know, back and forth or close or whatever we get should be good. It's Indy KC on Sunday night. It's the Giants at the Rams on Monday. It's Atlanta at Green Bay. So...

1:01:55

This is kind of where the season kicked us off good. And then some people say those are good games too, but I'm saying there's not going to be much better than this game for an Island game, at least for a little while, but we will be back. Like you said, tomorrow titles got the Cash GameA cash game is a contest that pays a large share of the field, usually close to half, the same flat prize. Fifty-fifties, double-ups and head-to-heads are the common cash games.Treat cash games as the steady base of your bankroll. Use one safe core across your cash entries on a slate, and save riskier ideas for tournaments.Full explanation ↗ countdown, bust that out quick. Everybody loved it last week. So they got all they needed fast, got all the information could take it.

1:02:13

You can use that to think about your tournament play. Because once you sort of know what those values are and how people are using them, that's how you can work off of that. That's what I do at least. So shout out the title there. We've got Saturday with Leverage Lane. Sunday morning, we've got the show with the three of us for Sunday shippers. And then after that, we've got ContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ Constructions with Belman and Ham.

1:02:32

And then later in the day, we've got Ham and Nades doing the Sunday sweat down. Going to be a lot of fun coming to that soon. I'll probably, you'll fill everybody in. I'll talk to title and hoop after this. It's actually going to be pretty sweet. But if you're not a member at dfsos.com yet, You might want to check it out. Use code ship it. It's going to involve this. They're working on something pretty sweet over there.

1:02:52

And right now you can get the all access for twenty nine dollars locked in twenty nine a month dollar a day. There's a ton of features. Go check out the site. There's a free trial. You can go check out the the demo at the top. I'm logged in. The demo brings you right in. But there's going to be some really cool added features that come with that that we're going to be using on our shows here. So. Check it out, DFSOS.com.

1:03:12

Check out ShipItNation.com. That's going to do it for this one, guys. For Hoop, for Tidal, and for myself, ToeTag, and Tambo, good luck in your contest tonight. Let's ship it!

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  1. 0:00Intro
  2. 4:09Game Overview and Expected Game Script
  3. 9:16Captain Picks and Ownership Strategy
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