NFL DFS Week 8 Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel Strategy

I know the running joke has always been for me like tambo always wins in week seven almost won the milli last week had a real sweat down the stretch it was awesome but I don't need to go fully into that but as much as I think it's more about what I talk about and you talk about all the time in slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate dynamics I like last week as an example I think the comments and you know people in here being like what are you what are you wasting time talking about Deshaun Watson versus Cam Ward for and like why would that game even be thought about and talked about like there's so many don't you know there's a huge game in the afternoon which I liked my lane was going.

I like going that route. And, you know, we saw a lot of potential in that game, but then there was ways in other lineups to account for it and handle it. And Deshaun Watson didn't even have a huge game last week. Fanon missed the bonus. He was in my Milly lineup. Like, you know, the Concepcion, great game. Yes. Like things like that, where it made sense.

But Amin Ra as the one-offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off when, you know, the, I don't know if it was late swapLate SwapIn NFL contests with late swap, you can change unlocked afternoon or evening players after earlier games begin. Only games included in that contest's player pool are available.Before the first games lock, identify affordable backup combinations for your later players. Check that each combination fits the open positions, then confirm your saved changes in every affected entry.Read the full definition of Late Swap or what it was. You track the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership more than I do probably of like how it got there. But Gibbs did end up getting to a much bigger number once that afternoon slate unlocked and he was there and it was to me a bit surprising. That's not necessarily exactly why I had Amon Raw in that lineup.

It's just a note of when you're not on something there, you have him. But let's talk about the takeaways from last week. We'll look at some of the success there, bring back that stuff that we can apply towards week eight because different slate for sure, but still a lot of things when the season moves along that we can bring over and help people with. So talk to me a little bit about that.

Yeah, it was kind of cool the way that Cleveland game played out because, you know, one of the things we talked about a lot last week was the reason why we're talking so much about this Deshaun Watson versus Cam Ward stack isn't just because we think it's going to do well. In fact, we we like made it pretty clear we don't think this is going to be some like explosive game. It's just what it allows us to do with the rest of the lineup.

So the fact that the game played out in such a way, we're like. Deshaun didn't have some outlier outcome and you still almost won a million dollars with it. Despite like you could have very easily, you know, accidentally landed on Tony Pollard as a bring backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back. You didn't have Pollard. You were the highest scoring lineup without Pollard. You still almost won a million dollars and the game didn't go nuclear. Uh, Carnell Tate had a long reception out at the one yard lines.

Like that was another way that the game could have hit even more. Uh, so yeah, I, I think it played out in, in a kind of a fun way because even though it didn't hit, it showed what could have been accomplished with that lineup. I played four lineups last week, three of them cashed. One was a top-ten percent outcome, but my highest-scoring lineup was a Cam Ward stack.

Obviously, Cam Ward was atrocious, but it allowed me to fit a lot of stuff that I really liked, in addition to Brock Bowers, who I played, I think, in three of the four, maybe even four of the four. He obviously didn't do that well, but That lineup had Braylon Allen, Bucky Irving, Tee Higgins, so really hit on those guys. And it was the Cam Ward stack that allowed me to fit that.

And so my leverage lane this week, I teased it on Twitter already, but I had three potential leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage lanes last week. One was Bowers. Bowers is what I went with. He didn't do that well. The other two were the Cleveland game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack and the Josh Jacobs pivot to kind of fadeFadeTo fade a player is to leave him out of your lineups on purpose, usually because you expect him to be popular or you think he is a poor play.Fade with a reason, not a feeling. If you can't say why a popular player will disappoint, you're probably just giving away points.Read the full definition of Fade that Green Bay game in kind of a... What I hoped was a clever way. And, and the other two worked out really well and they were the little bit more contrary, more off the wall type plays.

And so I'm going to over-correct if anything this week and a little bit of a teaser here, but my, my leverage lane is going to be the most off the wall leverage land I've ever given out and probably will ever give out the season. And what's interesting is I know a little bit about these things, but I do like it quite a bit.

Actually, I was on, even before you were talking about it last night in your Discord and I caught up on it this morning, but I think that it's pretty interesting. And, you know, I was already thinking that when the first thought got there of like what everybody else is thinking and obviously using this too, but it's just funny that I was already looking at stuff there.

And if you look at props and everything, they were already kind of in a place where you're like, Oh, that's interesting. Cause I didn't expect that. So I'm excited for that. Bring it later on. I brought up, My lineup from last week, just so people can see it, using DFSOS.com. You guys can check it out over there. Launched the contest vault today to dig even deeper into these contests. Has the FanDuel data as well. But just from this perspective, it was Deshawn, Concepcion, Bannon.

I didn't even have Pollard. In hindsight, obviously, it's built with an optimizerOptimizerAn optimizer is software that builds DFS lineups within a site's salary cap and roster rules. It uses projected fantasy points, your settings and, in some tools, simulations to select combinations for a chosen goal.Build a small test batch first. Check which players and combinations repeat, and investigate why before increasing the lineup count or changing settings.Read the full definition of Optimizer. I wish that I had... Pollard right here, and then I could have had Kraft right here opposite Amundra, and I would have won everything. And it makes perfect sense because a secondary, you still have a single stack with a run back. It would have been fine. But the Bucky Irving Buccaneers thing, I think it just didn't get talked about enough.

We talk about Bucky squared and kind of made fun of it a little bit on the Sunday show with Hoop, Title, and myself. But the big thing for me was once you're doing this, that means you're not – you're most Likely not playing Coker. Okay. Well, who can go in the place of Coker? How about Higgins at five percent on something else there? You've got that. Okay.

If I'm on the Buccaneers D and I'm not on the popular Titans D, which everybody's going to this week, well, why not use the stack against them? You know, things like that where you're looking and this is what happens when people say it's like the running joke that you always win week seven and beyond.

It becomes a lot more once the pricing tightens up a little bit and for certain weeks like last week where we didn't have a ton of value it does become even more of the game that we love to play and the chess pieces and the um game theory of it all and like making it make sense I talk about the penthouse process like okay everyone's here but what about it doing this move that opens up this move which lands you here and hopefully you're the one that they're popping the bottle for at the end of the day in the penthouse party but I was still up there.

There was champagne getting sprayed on me for fourth place. It just wasn't all about me in first place, but really good run there. The other thing I want to say about that Bucky and Tampa combo is not only did that leverage Coker and even Hubbard a little bit, but It also leveraged the Ted Hurst chalk. Ted Hurst ended up like forty percent in some single entries in high stakes stuff.

I don't know what he was in in this melee contest, but probably like twenty five thirty would be my guess. So he was still like a really heavily used piece. And in this kind of game scriptGame ScriptGame script is how a game's score and time remaining influence its pace, play choices and player opportunities. In football, teams protecting a lead often run more, while teams chasing a deficit often pass more.Before locking a lineup, ask who keeps playing if your expected script reverses. Check passing-down roles and backup rotations instead of assuming a team's leading rusher handles every situation.Read the full definition of Game Script where the Burks defense is doing really well and Bucky's getting a ton of volume, like there's just not a lot of passing volume to go around for Hurst. That's exactly how it played out.

And so I don't think you could have told the story like any better for how the Tampa and for how Bucky and Tampa kind of combined to do really well and shut down Hurst. They were both necessary, and Hurst gets the zero. It literally couldn't have been any better for that pairing. And I think it's just a good reminder of you and I have talked a decent amount about how Sometimes we think running back defense pairings are overused. Sometimes mini stacksMini-StackIn NFL DFS, a mini-stack usually pairs two players from the same game without either team's quarterback. Often a secondary group beside your main quarterback stack, it can pair a running back with an opposing receiver.Before locking a pair, describe how both players reach big scores together. Then ask whether that outcome would make an omitted quarterback or teammate difficult to beat.Read the full definition of Mini-Stack are overused.

And the reason is, you know, people just kind of say like, oh, I'm clicking two players from the same game or, oh, I'm clicking running back in defense. Therefore, I must have a lot of added correlationCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation. But what you did here is a much better example of, no, this is an instance where there actually is a lot of correlation.

You actually are telling a very clear and coherent story about not only how your guys do well, but how their success actually leverages a lot of the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk that you're not using. So I really liked that aspect of the lineup there. You guys know that it's a single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry focus for GPPsGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Read the full definition of GPP. You should be focusing on that, right? It's not like just getting the most off the wall play.

Even then, like I, it's funny because I know Alex is going to bring up and off what most people would consider an off the wall play.

I don't even think it is, but just to note it for later, we're going to keep teasing this, I guess, but just to note it, it's not just that somebody just said, I think it was Berga, you know, shout out to Berga over in your Discord and ours as well, but it says, but it will, you know, it's what it will allow you to accomplish that you wanted to accomplish last week. It'll be the same thing here.

People look at like, oh, that's way off the wall. But you can now plug in almost anything you want around that, like we just showed. Another nice thing, just from a contest selection standpoint, I think a lot of people, I work with tons in the mentorship program and at DFS Mastermind, they still like, I want to play these lineups in satellites and these lineups in tournaments. And I'm like, no, no, no. It's not...

Uh and or or sorry it's and like you're playing it in the milli hoping to get that sweat and when it comes up just short it's not ideal but it's still $25,000 it's amazing but it's nice to just boat race the king of the desert field and get that ticket so it's like I'm playing it in both places I'm not hoping that this line it was here and saying oh what would have been if I had had that in the milli I'm putting them together so I think when you guys are doing your contest selection you should think about that depending on what you can afford Another interesting thing, and I'll show yours in a second, but just on the other night for Thursday,

People give me shit for this because people don't like a defense captain, but it's like the flow and the feel when you get into like that Zen mode. So the Buccaneers against Carolina just helped me a lot and won me a bunch of money. So I was like, you know what? Let me get one lineup in there with the Packers D captain. And it was a five one. It got running back on the other side, really played for us, a low scoring game.

And we kind of got twenty seven, nineteen. It wasn't like over the forty six and a half. So it worked out. It had Kraft. It had Jacobs. It had Hubbard. It had Love. And then I think it was. Um, the Packers deer or whatever else it was in the Packers. He was in captain. But anyway, I never won this many tickets in one run with a lineup. I got two, fourty four, forty fours, five main events for Sunday, just following the path of that.

And I know you, as we talked about, had a huge night the other week, too. But Alex, you must play thousands of dollars to win all these tickets and money that you do. And it's right there on the screen. Three hundred and forty bucks. To a forty four, forty four mega ticket, fifteen hundred bucks cash. And I like this comment. Everyone has different opinions. I'm not here for the back and forth on who's who.

But the downside of me said the big GPPGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Read the full definition of GPP showdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Read the full definition of Showdown being paid $3,000. I mean, you won contest selection again, like just get in there like that. That was fine. And if you had to put it in the lottery or whatever, it was like, yes, it's another $3,000. But it's not like you missed out on something or you put it where it actually could matter and pay off the most. And it most certainly did. So congrats to you. Jesse's always grumpy.

We'll give him a pass. He's just always grumpy. Yeah, it's fair. But yeah, I think it's cool to see all the showdown success. Showdown's been tremendous this year. I think I did some of the hit rate study that I do so far this season. I'm at like thirty three percent top ten percent outcomes in showdown and something like eight percent top one percent so far this year. So hopefully that continues.

But yeah, I think the key there is like, well, what is it about showdown that's allowing us to have that success? It's it was showdown. It's so easy to just tell like one coherent story about how the game plays out in a, in an unexpected way. And obviously with main slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate, like you have to tell a coherent story about how eight games or ten games combined to play out in an unexpected way, but not too unexpected.

And so like it's a little bit harder to do that, but we're trying to accomplish the same thing. It's we're playing the game of DFS so much more than we're playing fantasy football and just trying to predict who's going to do well. Yeah, I guess the only other thing I don't know what I mean, we could talk a little bit about the Brock Baker stuff. I'll definitely I wanted that leverage lane. I'll let you claim it now. No problem, friend. You can keep that one.

I wasn't on that at all. No, I'm kidding. You know, continue. We'll have a conversation on that later. I think the other thing that people want to hit on a little bit, just as you take away from last week to this week, this week, we're talking about an earlier.

Game Arizona Dallas there's other games of course I'm saying not like last week but last week the big game sort of busted again right you could get there I mean in the end the Milly Maker lineup got there with golf that was the funny part too my leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage name was like golf jmo LaPorta everything wasn't all that but it was a golf um JMO Amun-Ra lineup that passed me.

So it was three of the four guys that I was on in that, that ended up actually beating me for the Milly Maker win. But it wasn't like the game really went off crazy. You didn't need like Gibbs. I saw the guy in the man. What was, what was the other Milly last week? The, there was two of them. Was there a big, was it just a five, five, five? I think it was the five, five, five last week.

And the second place lineup in that lost by four points and had Gibbs. Can you imagine like going into the afternoon and feeling like, oh man, I got the highest Gibbs. I'm right in the mix of everything. There wasn't much else going on. And those, it for movement in those ones, it was like, yeah, there was the game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack back there, but the way the games went, it was like you land up there and you had the highest Gibbs. You got to feel like four points off.

What the hell happened? He got nothing going on really there, but anything to add on that for the big game stuff that everyone attacks or also anything else you want to hit on before we move on to this week? Well, I thought, uh, so last week was, was really interesting because we had that like really, really cheap wide receiver chalk that allowed people to play the expensive game stack in kind of whatever way they wanted. That was hard to get to.

Uh, you know, it was hard to get to Gibbs. Obviously it was hard to get down on our St. Brown too. Um, it was really weird that Jameson said, really held all week as kind of the cheapest piece of that game because I also felt like he was the best piece in the game stack in terms of he's the guy who's really going to speed it up. So he had the really big game.

So my love stack, the one of four lineups that I played with Jordan Love, I felt like I played it right. I had Watson and Golden and Jamison Williams, and I got the huge game from Williams but didn't get it from the Green Bay guys. So yeah, it was just kind of a weird...

Week in that way but again like I felt like I played it really well had the slate surrounded and just it all broke so that like all three of those lines that were really inversely correlatedCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation to one another ended up in the same spot instead of one of them really separating and potentially going to get a takedown but feel really good about things this week and excited to kind of talk And I think we have a very unique starting point this week.

If you want to start there, just like kind of with the maybe like just a quick slate overview of what what about this slate is so different from anything else we've seen this year? Yeah, I think a couple things. I'll go there in just one second. Sorry, the warm-up event was last week, the one-fifty, right? The hundred-fifty dollar, which was a lot of fun. It's Grex, really good dude. He had two-thirteen. I guess it ended up being about five points back, but had Jameer Gibbs.

Mind you, the guy in first was probably, you know, happy at the end of the day but like where were those puka points when he needed them and you know probably stressing that down the stretch it was almost a blow at our boy that you know we can claim this guy now quorum he just keeps going off and there was a big touchdown call back last week as well that kind of hurt me because that would have been thirty four or thirty five to six and probably shut shit down instead it all of a sudden became like the gentee touchdown through the air which the Ultimate Milly Maker winner in the twenty dollar ended up having Jeanty in that same stack with JMO and Jared Goff and all those guys.

So it was like I couldn't even win first after all that stuff happened. But Corum just keeps going off for sure. Yeah, he actually had two touchdowns called back and then also scored one. Later. Yeah, he still scored one later. It's crazy. That could have been enormous for him. So, yeah, that was a bit of a bummer. But we're all over that, and hopefully we can continue making some pretty good calls, even though we both missed on Bowers.

That was, like, the one thing that I felt like I didn't do well last week. Now, when I say that, like, I think the logic was sound. I'm going to go right back to it this week. I think in a lot of places we'll talk through that. But... Yeah, it was unfortunate that didn't hit bigger because Bowers could have been awesome last week. And then that Watson stack becomes even better because he was like one of the main ways that we were fitting that.

Yeah, so I don't know exactly what you had in mind. I'll give a quick overview of my thoughts first off, and then I'll let you take it away and sort of add to it. It's probably best. But I think the biggest difference, and that's what sort of people are always wanting to look at, is where the big totals are and all that. But we do have Arizona-Dallas and Buffalo-Baltimore both going on at the same time.

It does seem like people want way more action on one than the other, and that is the Arizona-Dallas, which we'll get to in a second. And that's mainly, I think, because...

Of you know we got good news that lamar's Likely to play mind you minter is still saying like we hope or we we think we'll have him out there it's like he's been practicing it should be the case and that's what I'm expecting but you just never know with these coaches sometimes and these players the way it works out but I would expect him to be there the total's up we're good there but then they're saying about how he can't you know plant his foot exactly and all this other stuff that sort of scares people away and then they don't know right zay gets love for sure But on the other side, King Cade is still questionable, Likely to go.

Moore is still questionable. So it's like, and people never think they can get Josh Allen right. So then they're discussing playing him naked, but he's more expensive and so on and so forth. So after that though, there is a ton of big, you know, big enough, fourty-six, Forty five and a half. Forty five. Like there's a lot of games in there that you can go to and a lot of very stackable offenses with tighter target treesTarget ShareTarget share is the percentage of a team's targets (passes thrown toward an intended receiver) that go to one player. A receiver who sees 8 of his team's 32 targets has a 25 percent target share.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Read the full definition of Target Share. So, you know, that that makes sense to me there.

What were you seeing and thinking as well? And then obviously we'll get to some of those stacks later and stuff once we talk about the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build, how to leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage it and then other game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack we can pivot to. But what are you thinking with the overview here? So I think the really unique thing about this week is it's the first week of the season where I think the luxury payups are almost universally a wide receiver and not running back.

Now, it does look like the fieldThe FieldThe field is everyone else entered in a contest, the group of lineups you are competing against.Before you build, picture the typical lineup in your contest. Then decide on purpose where you'll match it and where you'll step away from it.Read the full definition of The Field is going to try to get to Bajon a little bit and to Gibbs, but I think the field is probably overestimating Gibbs ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership at this point. In the week, I think Javonte will probably be the most popular, like quote unquote, big spend at running back. But I think most of the running back ownership, it's going to be more mid tier type stuff. And I think people are going to try to get to, let's see lamb chase flowers.

Probably the big three Higgins has a chance as well. Uh, Puka, for sure. Jefferson, London. Pickens will get some. Parker Washington going to get some. So I think this is the first week where people are saving elsewhere to get to wide receiver spends instead of to get to running back spends. And I think that kind of changes things quite a bit. And it sets the table for what my leverage lane is going to be at the end.

Yeah, I guess... I mean, I agree with all of that, a hundred percent, actually. But it's also... What I don't know, and you know, the chat's talking about it and you do ownership for a living as well. So it's like, you understand the concepts of like, very well of like, if this happens, that means this. And we talk about it all the time during your golf.

If a $6,500 value is pushing up, then guess how much easier it is to get to Scott Scheffler? You know, things like that. It's kind of. The same here. And I think Chase Brown will be the highest owned running back. I think you probably think that as well. I'm pretty sure, but Javonte Williams is definitely steaming up. And to me, I get, we talk about it all the time of like quarterback with running back all this stuff and you can do it.

Of course you can do it. It's not about if you can do it or not. It's, If people steam up Javonte, I feel like that's more in lineups that they're not on Dak. And then I wonder if the Dak high ownership that everyone's seeing right now actually comes back a little bit and tightens up and sort of spreads it out even more than, you know, right now we're just seeing Dak pull away a little bit.

And then we're seeing the guys after him I don't know, though, man. Like, you know, you've got Joe Burrow, who I think could steam up a little. He's seven hundred bucks more. We already know Chase and Higgins are both popping. If people want to leverage Chase Brown some, you can play him with Chase Brown. That's another game. And then you've got the injuries on the other side with no Tate and no Spears.

So don't know if people are going to go back to Pollard after that amazing game. We'll talk on some interesting stuff there later. But I think that's just my thought. I don't know. Like, I just don't see both Dak and Javonte being super high owned I feel like it's more Javonte. He fits every build to your point. It's like you can put Chase Brown, Javonte in any stack this week right away. No problem. Yeah, I do think we'll see plenty of both.

I think we'll see plenty of CeeDee Lamb as well. I think one potential path to Dak not ending up as high-owned as people expect is if a lot of that ownership just shifts to Jacobs Brissett and people play the game through him instead, which is very possible, but... It is worth noting that it's not like Dak and Brissett are that far apart price-wise.

It's only a six hundred dollar difference, which I think is probably going to keep Brissett in check and allow Dak to get up there in ownership. Yeah, that's what, that's a good point. And that's all, but that's also what I'm seeing. Like I said, I don't, I think they're both definitely how we know Javonte is high owned. Um, you can, you just go look at your rosters for everybody that builds the rosters way too early.

Like I know you have already go look at them and tell me why it's Chase Brown, Javonte Williams and tootin in your running to running back spots in your flex. Cause I already can see your lineup. It's like everybody knows. So that's the one that I get. But that's what I'm saying is, you know, it's really easy to wrap around that.

It's kind of just what it leaves open is that wraps around like the Brissett, Bourne, and there's even some, you know, a lot of stuff on X and things like that that I'm seeing with, you know, Michael Wilson getting talked up again now because it's just affordable to make all that fit.

The other thing that I think is interesting, and you kind of said it off the top, it's just one thing leads to another, is last week people were building for Stars and ScrubsStars and ScrubsStars and scrubs is a DFS lineup structure where you spend heavily on several expensive players and fill other roster spots with low-salary players. The cheap players free up salary for the stars; they are not necessarily bad players.Compare the points you gain by upgrading to a star with the points you sacrifice at the cheap spot. Check whether both players still fit your lineup's scoring scenario.Read the full definition of Stars and Scrubs because we had the $3,000 Hearst and so on and so forth. This week, while we are picking up some values, people are just shitting on everyone that pops up, right? It's like Jonah Coleman. No, I don't know about that. Like people will get there.

I'm just saying in general, it's like they're not in love with that. There's so many other good running backs. Do you need them? Wanda Robinson, he just catches the ball and falls on it. Like why would I ever play him at $4,200? Like that's the case. And so what you're seeing is people and you even said it earlier when you've got those three running backs. I just said then you've got don't forget guys like Higgins. That are picking up steam.

Like it's all the mid range guys that are going to just be filled in. And there's ways that those lineups can just get stomped on that we'll get to here in a little bit. But do you want to start with the chalk build and just sort of roll out what we think? Yeah, so I very much agree with your running backs. I will also toss in Ramondre Stevenson at $5,600. That's a really popular pick.

He's actually who I have second in in single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry and high stakes ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership and getting over thirty percent in high stakes. So, you know, again, like I think that's that's once again evidence that both the field and like I agree with the field on this point that. The, the goal of this slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate is largely to get to as many of those stud wide receivers that have the slate breaking upside as possible.

And Both Chase Brown and Ramondre Stevenson are a really easy foundation to help do that, as is Bayshal Toon. I think that's probably, if anything, that's what's going to keep Javonte Williams in check. Now, I have Williams as the third most popular running back at the moment, but only slightly over twenty percent. And I think the reason why he's probably not going to get to thirty, thirty five, forty percent is just because people actually want to spend money.

On elsewhere and want to save money at running back this week, more so than like pretty much any slate we've seen so far this season. And we have the pieces to actually do that in Brown, Stevenson and Tootin. And I'll add to that. I'm glad you brought that up because I said earlier, I can see your lineups out there.

You just, you just tried to cover them up, but you actually showed me more because now what I just saw when Alex mentioned that is don't forget in the Tootin version, I see Hunter Henry in your tight end spot. Yeah. And when you take out the Tootin version and go to Ramondre Stevenson, I can see Brenton Strange in your tight end spot.

And by the way, Tootin dropping three hundred and Hunter Henry dropping three hundred to flip it gives you six hundred, which by my math and what we discussed earlier gives you reset to Dak. Oh, wow. We're starting to build these things out now. So you can start to see it pretty quickly. I really like this week for that reason, how it shapes out and how the results shake out. We'll be interesting. Wait and see. Hopefully great. But I'm doing week eight.

Be great. I like that one. But just to note it, I think it's, you know, when we know that, Alex, I think you and I feel a lot better going into a slate because it's like we're getting ownership numbers can even be off slightly, but it's all the game theory that comes with that.

I'm like, okay, if everyone's doing this, how can I do it where it's not silly, stupid, whatever the word you want to use is, but do it in an intelligent way that can also give you a better S than silly and stupid, which is separation. And we're looking for that, right? How can I separate, but do it in a way that's not insane and completely off the board? Let's just, you know, we don't need just all this other stuff.

And that's why I said earlier, even when you give your leverage lane later and he comes in super low owned, that doesn't mean you're just jamming eight more plays like that, right? That you're using, that's your unlock to what you're doing with the rest of your build. And it not only, it does twofold. It's going to be probably triple leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage, right? Because it's going to leverage something. It's going to leverage roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Read the full definition of Roster Construction.

And then you're going to put some sort of leverage in there based on how the slate shaping out and what you want to use. So I think it's going to be really good. And really just this, I'll say, I don't know if you have a different answer for this, but I mean, one is obviously ownership, right? We know to start with the ownership, but it's just what this show is about, Stephens.

Like we're sitting on here building and we're going to show you what the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build is or some variation of it or close to. And then when you know that, if you don't know that, you know, then I don't know how you can do it, right? That you can build good lineups. I just don't know if you can build great or excellent lineups. And when I talk about the penthouse process of like, everyone's doing this, they're on floor one.

Oh, someone says, I learned a little bit though. I'm getting up to the next story. I'm going to flip this and do this instead. Okay. But the best players are at the top of the building in the penthouse chilling because they're doing moves that are using all this stuff to leverage it to their advantage.

And that's what we're trying to help you guys with here today and talk about so um where do you want to start for the chalk build you want to just plug in like I guess Chase Brown for sure what else yeah let's go let's go Chase Brown uh do you want to do Stevenson or do you want to save henry for tight end well let's go tootin Yeah, I was going to say, let's go to do you think more people are on Henry or Strange?

The ownership is so close that, you know, it's hard to tell. And I don't know what you have it at right now. Obviously, our stuff is all just sitting on initials. But it feels like there's this like setup of Mason Taylor just crushed this team. So therefore, Hunter Henry's got to crush this team. And then you never know what these Patriots running backs. And so I feel like more people want the home running back in Tuten. And then you end up having more Henry.

But what do you think? Yeah, I mean, I have more Stevenson ownership projected than Toon ownership, but that could change. I'm pretty confident that Henry's going to be higher than Strange. I only have Strange at, like, fifteen percent. I have Henry over twenty percent in single entries. So, I definitely think that he's going to be the guy that people really go to. And that's partially because of the matchup with Miami. It's also, like, there's no A.J. Brown. There's no Matt Collins.

There's no, you know, there... There's no Romeo Doubs. There are a lot of passing weapons out for New England, and people want a piece of that offense no matter what. And I think Henry's the clear and obvious answer, whereas the receivers, it's like, okay, well, all these guys, even though they have real opportunity this week, and you can argue that the receivers have really nice ceilings for their prices, they also have really low floors. Henry has a really nice floor.

So I think that's going to be a popular play. And honestly, if... In my update tonight, I end up with Henry over thirty percent. Like, I'm not going to be surprised. He's a he's a very clear and obvious play as a as a salary saving option this week. Yeah, I don't think this is it.

I'm just showcasing it, though, because this is one thing I am saying earlier with my deck situation is obviously we can find a way to make this deck quite easily and move a couple of pieces around. But just to note it, it gets you like a balanced piece of everything. Like, what are you missing here? Right. You've got Burrow. Brown, Higgins, Aya Manor on the other side, just because he's cheap. Obviously, Wandale could be popular at $4,200 as well.

Most Likely will be. It looks like people want the one offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off in that game to be Zay, right? They want to get a piece of that Baltimore Buffalo game. You got Jacksonville. You got Dallas still covered. You got Denver because people just feel like, hey, if I'm going to play the cheap defense, let's get the one at home against my home. Some of those guys are a bit banged up, even though they're coming back, whatever, whatever. But we can make any flip to this.

I'm just showing that this is a a lineup that I think a lot of people will have some variation of being able to get to this. Obviously, plugging Dak into it is not that hard. We actually pick up seven hundred dollars. Yeah, there's a question in the chat. How do we determine what the fieldThe FieldThe field is everyone else entered in a contest, the group of lineups you are competing against.Before you build, picture the typical lineup in your contest. Then decide on purpose where you'll match it and where you'll step away from it.Read the full definition of The Field is going to do? And yeah, so the first thing here is we're not using an optimizerOptimizerAn optimizer is software that builds DFS lineups within a site's salary cap and roster rules. It uses projected fantasy points, your settings and, in some tools, simulations to select combinations for a chosen goal.Build a small test batch first. Check which players and combinations repeat, and investigate why before increasing the lineup count or changing settings.Read the full definition of Optimizer to determine what the field is going to do.

We're using years of study of what the field does. That's how I create my ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership projections. That's how I create my field lineups for the contest sims. It's not something that I'm depending on some tool to help me do. I've built the stuff that's helping us do this. And it's also just like, you know, I think anybody who plays DFS over time, you just kind of get a sense of this.

And especially like as we build the most popular, as we try and build out what the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build looks like, you know, so much of this is just what are the easy clicks?

What are the clicks that people are going to make where they feel like, you know, there's not a single thing about that click that's, giving them pause or giving them any kind of, you know, uneasy feeling it's, it's clear and obvious to them that, Hey, what I'm doing right now is not a mistake. And that's, uh, I think a lot of what the chalk build ends up looking like. Yeah, there's definitely an art to the science.

Like you said, I think another thing that gets confused, I talk about this all the time over at Ship It Nation because we run the simulations as well with our data versus like maybe what I'm Stephens talking about. But like when it says optimal, that's optimal lineupOptimal LineupAn optimal lineup is a legal roster that maximizes fantasy points under the salary cap and roster rules. After games, it uses actual scores; before games, a projected optimal uses estimated scores and any lineup restrictions you set.When reviewing an optimal, replace its most surprising scorer with a realistic pregame alternative. Check whether the remaining construction still offered a credible path to winning your contest.Read the full definition of Optimal Lineup. That's the whole thing. So it's like you're again, you have to go back and look at it and think about it's like you can plug all those guys in in a way that makes sense. Sure.

But it's like that's on an entire, that's them hitting the optimal lineup, not just them as an optimal play. So at the end of the day, it's sort of how you're putting the pieces together as well. But from Alex's point of view and your stance there, it is true that there's also a lot of the art that goes into it. I'm just saying, okay, I think Moore would do this. And if they do this, then that would probably mean They just land here.

Like that's why I said, I don't think this is the exact chalk build, but it's just an example where someone might see this and be like, damn, that looks like a pretty good lineup. It does. It's on paper. It's a lot of the best plays. That's why you see there's heavy ownership associated with all of them and position dependent. Like an eleven percent quarterback is still pretty high when most quarterbacks sit at five or six percent or less.

So it's like there's a ton of ways to look at it. But then it's also a product of how people are playing the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. We do have a $3,000 guy like Hearst last week, but then everyone's sort of filling it out. The balanced version, the rest of the way, you don't see Gibbs. You don't see Robinson. You don't see McBride. You don't see Ja'Marr Chase. You don't see lamb in this lineup. You don't see almond.

I could keep going on any expensive defenses. There's like, you're not seeing any of that. In this build. And that's part of the issue that sometimes comes up because then that's not the build you need. And this is nowhere near what those lineups would look like. Cause not only are you missing those expensive pieces, but you're missing the build around them and how it works together. That's what the Deshaun Watson stuff worked out and came in last week.

Cause last week, most people were on the studs, not the mid range opposite of this. Yeah. Another thing I want to do with this lineup is let's, let's take a look at what happens. So let me start here. Actually.

Burrow projects under ten percent so I think a lot of people watching might be like well why do you have Burrow in here well Burrow is an example like one of those easy clicks that just kind of naturally happens based on what else is in the lineup so t Higgins Chase Brown both very naturally in this chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build I am manner very naturally in this truck build is like the one punt that people seem really intrigued by and so if you already have like two bangles and a titan Burrow makes a ton of sense.

So given that, one of the things that people might try to do to be, quote unquote, one play removed from the chalk bill, which they hope is different enough, is since we're going Burrow, what if you take Chase Brown to Higgins, Javonte down to Ramondre, and then let's go Henry to Strange. And it's also possible, like, people might leave Henry. They might not go to Strange since Tootin's already in this lineup. I don't think people are going to be too turned off to that.

But, like, there are also, you know, other cheap tight ends that they could go to instead. So, like, maybe it's Kate Otton instead or Mark Andrews, although, you know, or... You know, Hawkins or Raridon, you know, there, there are plenty of cheap options this week, but point being like, it might still be something like this though, too.

Like where you've, um, I think the Steelers will be the popular payout defense when, when people are paying upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up and this gets Javonte back in while still covering the angle. What I wanted to do here was I wanted to see if, if it's doable to do a Burrow double with chase as well. So instead of Javonte, I want to chase in there. Let me get chase in. And it may be. So I think it's probably doable if you just go cheap at a defense.

Let's go to sort by ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership and we'll just use I'll use the Broncos if we need three hundred bucks, we'll go down to the Chargers. But this leaves you six hundred bucks still to go wherever you want. So, yeah, I mean, this is set. So, yeah, I mean, people could go up from Strange, whatever. But point being here is, like, it's not difficult to build a Cincinnati double this week because of Iowa Manor.

So the Cincinnati double, I think, is going to be used more often this week than it has so far this season. You know, I think a lot of times we kind of group the Cincinnati double in with the Dallas double. Well, the Dallas double is going to be harder to get to because there isn't the super cheap bring back that Tennessee has in Iowa manner. So, uh, you know, that's something to think of.

But, uh, the one reason why I would hesitate to say what we just built is a potential chalk build is because there wasn't a single cowboy in it. So I like, I fixed it to put a cowboy in it though. I swapped Zay to lamb. And then you just try to drop down Chargers from Broncos and you're not on any Rams. So you feel good about the Chargers at stone minimum. You've got the double stack with the run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back.

You got, you know, Burrow, Higgins, Chase, Io Manor. You've got your double Jacksonville, but it's like a running back and a tight end. So I guess like people won't care. I don't think people will care about that too much. Same reason earlier when we said, I actually don't think it's crazy to think you'll see Ramondre with Henry in lineups as well. And where people don't stack that game because they don't want to try and figure out Drake may, and we're still waiting on AJ Brown news.

And then there's Tyler Williams and Efton Chisholm and DeMario Douglas and you name it, right? There's so many guys there that you could go to. So I think people just would rather say, Hey, give me some New England, but let's just do it this way and play Romandre and or, um, Henry.

This is just the flip of that because it is the exact same, by the way, you, I mean, you have Romandre in there, but it's like, there's It would be a different $5,600 guy, but it just goes to show or move a couple of things around. But I definitely think this is kind of what we'll see. The only difference is that Chase Brown is going to be super popular no matter what. He's getting pushed off the board. Yeah.

Yeah. Timothy in the chat asking if we think that DAC is going to be lower on the bro. No, it, what we're showing here is just that like, this is a very natural double stack that people are going to get to. And so like one of the things I think that we're, we're showing here is that it's, it's yet another example of conditional ownership. If you're kind of building something that's very chalky, then Burrow actually might fit more naturally than Dak.

But remember that most of the fieldThe FieldThe field is everyone else entered in a contest, the group of lineups you are competing against.Before you build, picture the typical lineup in your contest. Then decide on purpose where you'll match it and where you'll step away from it.Read the full definition of The Field isn't necessarily building from the chalk out the way we are when we're trying to do the chalk build here. A lot of people are starting their lineup with, okay, what is the stack that I want? And more people are going to start with the idea of, I want to use Dak Prescott this week, and that's why Dak's going to end up higher.

But it does mean that if you build something really chalky and then you go with Burrow, Like that's probably not getting you as low conditional ownership as you think that you're running into higher conditional ownership that way. And so, um, I think the other thing it shows is kind of, you know, uh, what, what Timothy then alluded to next with like the main naked build, where I think what we're going to see is other quarterbacks just might be less correlatedCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation.

So if you're going with Dak, it's probably more Likely to be a single with just lamb and, uh, or maybe it's, you know, it's the other way around to get lamb where people are using per set with just McBride or just Wilson, and then using just lamb as the bring back or using lamb and Javonte as they bring back. That's another option.

And so, uh, I think it's just a little bit harder to figure out the ways in which people are going to use Dak and there's a wider variety, whereas that Burrow build is very clear and obvious in how it's going to happen because it's being played through some of the chalkiest pieces on the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. Yeah, I think you nailed it. And I think, again, my point earlier was I still agree with you, but I definitely think that Dak and Joe Burrow are going to tighten up.

I'm just in my early look here. What I think is going to happen is because it just shows, like it just gets to that. And also, anytime you see, like people always ask about this and like try and figure it out, and I'll just use an example. But anytime you see big projectionsProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections, big ownership, big optimal, whatever you see of like Chase Higgins and a valueValueValue is the fantasy production you expect from a player relative to his salary. A value play offers more production or upside than his price suggests, whether he is cheap or expensive.Identify why the salary looks wrong: workload, matchup, scoring ability or a pricing error. Then check whether that reason still holds when you submit your lineup.Read the full definition of Value, multiple value plays, People tend to lean towards that.

And also when you see the ownership on a guy like Chase Brown, I mean, it's probably even higher than this, especially in the high stakes.

But, you know, the note is that when people see that sometimes it's not enough to matter, but I'm just noting where it can come, where it can sort of bring itself over to the quarterback position and stacks is that some people get a little fed up because by the end, they've been hearing Chase Brown, Chase, by the end of the week, like, you know what, I'm going to just move off. That guy.

And it's like, you could have just played them differently, but just to note it like that's, or I'll play them with them and whatever else you, which you can definitely do, but just seeing it from that perspective, I was just going back here to try and get chase. Back in. Nobody wants it. This is another interesting thing. I'll show in a second. Who's seventy four is what's his name already? Javonte.

So something like this is really interesting, I guess, because I think like when you have Chase Brown and Higgins, this has Lamb and Javonte. So you got to I mean, you can make more moves and different moves. I'm just showcasing this that I see this sometimes, Blickle, and I look and And you know, it was a hundred bucks less than T Higgins. And then you can move stuff around, but nobody, I mean, it's a hamstring. We got to worry.

It's a big, you know, it could be a big deal, but sometimes when you see something like this and people are like, well, it's just Higgins. I can't play Ja'Marr Chase, but you already got Chase Brown too, which could slow the game down. It could be all him on the ground. Like sometimes it's better.

Just like plug in that guy and get somebody that's a lower owned piece of a stack that you're already on and we'll see where Pickens ownership actually comes in but I definitely think it's it's another way to look at things on a slate like this when you're when you're looking at stacks and where they land sometimes it's more about just getting the secondary piece or the piece that actually makes the stack go versus just playing the chalk one offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off or something like that yeah I mean I'll just plug him in because he's a good projection That could also be a Michael Wilson bring back there to help push Dak and that offense.

A lot of options here. I think one of the things that people are hopefully realizing as we do this is just it's a lot easier to get to these pretty expensive wide receivers but not super expensive wide receivers. Part of that is no wide receiver on this slate is priced anywhere close to Jameer Gibbs or even Bishan Robinson other than Puka.

It's really easy to get to them in part because we actually have the running backs this week to do it, which is something we haven't had a lot of this year. There have been some slates where it was like, $6,100 was the pay down option. And it was like, OK, I could go down to sixty one and save some money at running back. But now I'm giving up a ton of projection elsewhere. It's like this week.

They're actually probably the best values just from a pure projection standpoint anyway. And they help get to the wide receiver. So I think it's very, very clear that the chalk build this week. From a structural standpoint is mid tier to cheap running back pay up a wide receiver, save money at tight end. Yeah.

And I think like, this is a good one from Brian here says so far, it sounds like stud tight end is going to be underplayed, especially Bowers, et cetera, et cetera, but which I agree with. And that's where the Bowers conversation comes in. But to Alex's point there too. So I think this, I think triple stacks will be severely underplayed. And in higher stakes, smaller fields, we know those are good.

And also the fact that the setup of the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate, there's so many close games, and no one knows which one it is. So if you find something like that, it can work. We just showed how a lot of people, even in a Dak or Burrow, the two most popular quarterbacks right now, even in those lineups, some people are stopping at a single stack. I mean, people will get to the doubles, but I'm saying if you go anything further than that, definitely underplayed.

If you look at running backs... Not once. Look at this. Look at this thing. When have we seen a week? Look at this week. Gibbs, Kenneth Walker against the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk defense down low. One of them, B. John Robinson, James Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Kyron Williams, like all those guys aren't getting talked about at all. Really? Gibbs will make his way in some because there's ways to get there. And I get that. And he probably should write $9,500 bucks. You can still do it.

But just noting it. And then after that, even. You've got Derrick Henry, Jeanty. If Jeanty doesn't do it this week, I don't know if he ever does it, by the way, and he might not, but it's a pretty good spot for him this week with the guys' Jets are down in the run game there. So I think Jeanty in the run game could be good against their front. You've got Jalen Warren, Bucky Irving, other options to await and see.

But just to note it, you're not seeing anyone pay upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up at running back. Look at all those names. We never get a slate with all these guys on it at once, and they're all on it, but nobody wants any of them. You said it here. Well, just real quick, I mean, think back to the pricing in week one and take notice of how much more the pricing at running back has moved than pricing at wide receiver. I think that's a big...

Big reason why we're seeing more ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership at the wide receiver position.

Like it, you know, at the beginning of the year, imagine, imagine someone telling you that Kenneth Walker would be like almost thousand dollars more expensive than all of Justin Jefferson, Drake London, T Higgins, George Pickens, Parker Washington, and that those receivers would be having some pretty good years or, or at least, you know, they'd be having some real spike weeks where like, you know, you're getting a top end ceiling of, from them at almost $2,000 cheaper than kenneth walker at this point in the year it could be a very very surprising thing to hear I agree a

Hundred percent and that's that's definitely part of it but the other thing is too you don't often see why a wide receiver position I'm just trying to see here in high stakes stuff let's say what we got zay Higgins lamb chase yep yeah does London actually get there? Don't know. I think so. Yeah. Uh, I think I haven't heard one Person mentioned them all week or stacking anything in that game at all. Not no Bijan, no London, no nothing.

So it's like, Yeah, sorry to cut you off, but I'm just saying, like, yeah, okay, even if he gets there, let's just give it to him and say he's in the mix. How often are we also seeing these wide receivers just capped at, like, fifteen-ish? Obviously, the high-stakes stuff, they're going to get to, you know, twenty-fives and things like that, twenty-five to thirty range, so it's a little bit different.

But you aren't really seeing, like, there's so many people that want the guys in the mid-range, too, right? When you get to, like, this Parker Washington, T. Higgins... Like I said, I think Michael Wilson going to steam some. We'll talk about that because he fits it. If people go to the Buffalo Bills game, depending on who's in, they'll go there. I think the Pittsburgh guys are going to get some steam. Bernard or Metcalf could get a little bit of love there too.

So there's that, but no one's paying up at tight end to the point earlier outside of maybe McBride, but that's because McBride's going to fit those stacks. So the conditional ownership will lead to show that he's going to be in the game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack or with percent or run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back to the DAC stacks or whatever it might be. And then nobody really paying up a D outside of the Steelers. And you've got Bengals. That's a slice and dice for Chase Brown.

You got Chase Brown on the slate going against the Titans who are down Tate, the only guy that could even move the damn ball for them. Besides, you can say what you want about Pollard last week. I'm just noting it. And there's more to that later as well. But you got the Jags versus the Colts. And I don't know what's going... I mean, we'll see. But the John of the Taylor trade news is going crazy right now. And so like how...

How much is this guy going to? I don't know. We'll see. Like, how much do they really want to put him out there if they're trying to trade him? Not sure. Speculation. But I'm just saying the Jags D is already awesome and at home and $3,700 bucks. You can get to them here and everyone's playing tootin. No one's playing the Jags D Patriots on the road. And I get it. But Malik Washington gives the ball up.

It's definitely an option, an opportunity there. And people are playing Ramondre, but nobody wants the Patriots D. So it is crazy of like you can see that's when somebody said, like, how do you know what's going on on the slate? We can see it all. But it doesn't blend, at least for my brain. I think yours works pretty similar when you see stuff like everybody wants this. But funny enough, everybody wanted the Tennessee defense last week. Spears gets ruled out. It's only like a one point bump.

It's not like crazy, but the data at the end was saying like, man, maybe it's a good idea to get Pollard in there now, even though there's all these other running backs. Everybody wanted Tennessee. Nobody wanted Pollard except on FanDuel. And then on, on this week, everybody wants these running backs, but no one wants the defenses. And it's not core. Like, again, we talk about this all the time, the myth that it's broken up and you don't need it.

I'm just saying what, what turned the ball over and turned it around where Pollard could score that quickly twice. Well, the defense got to stop, turn it over, and then he got right back in the box. So it's like sometimes it does work out in your favor. It's just always funny to me to see when the stuff in the story doesn't really line up. You did a great job last week of seeing it in that Green Bay-Detroit game.

You're like, everybody wants this game, but nobody wants the pieces that are actually going to speed it up and make it get to the level of the ceiling that we'd be looking for, right? It wasn't really being stacked like that. It was being stacked in a way that was very much – not quite for the under, but I guess it was leaning to like, okay, rack up your safe PPR points and hope to get scores.

But you know, people that played it for the all out crush, it was like, that was how they played it in the way that you played it. So I think that's something to think about again for this week. Anything else you want to add there? And we can then talk a little bit more about just how we're going to leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage this up. Yeah, it might be Pickens this week. He might be this week's Jameson Williams. We'll see.

But it's also possible he's going to be more popular to begin with than what Jameson Williams was last week. But yeah, I think that's a good point. Yeah, as far as how to leverage it, It's hard because the very first thought that I have for how do we leverage this is flip the build, pay up at running back, pay down at wide receiver, and do it that way.

Except I kind of hate that thought this week because I think the wide receivers are much better plays than the expensive running backs. And so that makes it difficult, and I think it forces us to be a little bit more creative in how we leverage this chalk build. Yeah, I'm curious, guys. Let us know if you're watching it live right now, throw it in the YouTube chat, like how you're leveraging this slate. Some thoughts you're thinking about. I saw some here.

You know, Kasten Reed says, is Goff with a Hawk bring back going to be popular? No. So you can definitely do that on this slate. Our guy, Timmy Dubs, has been talking about Bijan the whole day. And Bijan, even in the high stakes stuff, what's he get, fifteen to twenty at most? Like, I think that's kind of where he's sitting. Someone earlier said, you know, Justin Sports, always here supporting. We appreciate you said he still thinks Bijan. Still think that Gibbs gets jammed a lot.

I don't know, man. Like, I don't see how. And don't forget, he failed people last week. You're going against Flores Blitz and all this other stuff. Maybe he could get some checkdowns, things like that. But he still is almost $10,000. And we see that people are building balance. So I think if you like Gibbs this week, you should be able to get, you know, twenty to twenty five percent and see where it lands.

If he gets steamed, if people still can't get away from him somehow then you know you'll probably be around field but if people stay off of him you could be double the field at twenty five percent you never know yeah so this is this is one of those instances where I think like you know most of the time we talk about the conditional ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership stuff as um My conditional ownership is accurate in large part because my baseline ownership is accurate.

This is one of an, this is an example where I think my baseline ownership this week is more accurate because of how much I lean into conditional ownership and how much I study conditional ownership. Because last week I, while Gibbs did get to a decent overall ownership number, his conditional ownership outside of Green Bay, Detroit game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack was pretty low.

And so I think when people look back at, okay, well, what was his ownership last time he was at a price like this, they're seeing elevated ownership because he was involved in the most popular game of the week. He's not involved in the most popular game of this week. And I think consequently, we're going to see his ownership come way, way down this week. And, I have I have fourteen percent MME, thirteen and a half percent high stakes, thirteen percent single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry.

There's a pretty decent chance, I think, that I'm going to end up in single digits for either high stakes or or single entry. Probably single entry will end up being the lowest and has the highest chance of him ending up single digits. Just because, again, like I think way more people are paying for. Wide receivers who are literally $2,000 cheaper than him. And this is one of the only weeks this year where like they have a ceiling that can compete with his most weeks.

Gibbs is in a tier of his own ceiling wise. I don't think that's really the case against this Minnesota defense. They do such a good job with the run blitzes, not just all the blitzing there. Their pressure scheme forces running backs to stay in. Remember last year, like this might be overstated a little bit at this point. It's been talked about by so many different people. But there was a game last year where Gibbs was essentially benched because they preferred Montgomery blocking to his.

And now Montgomery not here, so I'm not saying he's going to get benched. I also think his pass protection has been better this year, even though it still is not quite where they would like it to be. But Like the matchup as a whole just really takes from the ceiling more than his floor.

And you combine that with just how crazy price prohibitive he is at a position where there's more salary relief than we've gotten at pretty much any slate this week or this year. We're like, you know, in past slates, if he was $9,500, you could save two and a half to $3,000 with the cheaper end running backs that were really viable in the slate. This week you can save $4,000. People are going to take that.

Yeah, I can't. Man, that's funny you brought that up, actually, because it's wild. I don't know if... Where was it, man? I think it was. I don't know if this is how I mean, it's got a ton of views. This is a who is it? It's like a sports writer in Detroit. So I think it's like a legit beat writer. But it said like Jameer Gibbs on pass blocking fifteen times in his first game against Minnesota last year. He said that shit was crazy.

I don't remember most of it. My head was rocking. I ain't going to lie, but I'm up for the challenge, whatever it is. But Vackie is really good at it. And he sometimes takes it off me. So to your point of like that type of setup, sometimes that is the case. And then I saw another thing today that was like, Brian Flores is crazy. And it was showing his blitz. Like, you know, those graphs and you're, you're the data guy.

It's like, I can say his shit is the top, right? Talk about the penthouse process. This man is in the penthouse at the very top right corner for blitzes. This, he's just coming at you and figure it out or try to. So I think you could see, again, people will say, well, Well, that could mean checkdowns for Gibbs and that, but you could see like Amin Ra, LaPorta, those guys just mixing it up over the middle.

And I think some people say, oh, interesting. It's a way to go then. Somebody brought up, let me stack that up. Well, here's the thing. When you just catch the ball and fall on it, the clock keeps running. So it's like when that's the case, it doesn't always mean that.

Great for you it just means they could be moving the chains a little bit and then a bunch of runs to keep them off the field and back and forth and if the other side doesn't pick up it could make it so it's not as crazy as you think you'll rack up some ppr points but you want a little bit more than that sometimes so just think about it from that perspective as well go ahead is it is it worth nerding out for a second about what flores is doing that's so unique I think the chat loves that.

Yeah. Do it. All right. I, I love what I'm seeing from floors and, and let me, let me first give a lot of credit to other people. Cause like, I'm not, I'm not doing this type of film analysis. A lot of this is what I'm seeing from, from what other people are talking about.

But the coolest thing that I'm seeing that he's doing is like so much to me and, and, This was something that all my basketball coaches in the day used to talk about, where the advantage that offense has almost universally is that the offense can make the defense react to what the offense is doing. Flores is totally flipping that. Flores is making the offense react to what he's doing every single play. And that's not just like...

Oh, he's being so aggressive that the offense has to be on their heels and react. No, I mean literally the play calls. I'll give you an example. One of the things it seems like he's doing, and I can't prove that he's doing this, but it sure looks like he's doing it, is let's say they have two guys lined up to blitz, and...

A lot of the time, what the pass protection will be is the running back will take one of the guys who might come blitz. The guard will take the other. And essentially, the two guys start to rush. And whoever realizes, oh, the guard is blocking me, will abandon the rush and drop back into the coverage. And then the guy who has the one-on-one with the running back will continue to go. And so the guard ends up blocking nobody. The running back has to guard the blitzer.

Block the blitzer like it's it's just brilliant and so they're getting like all these extravagant pressures only sending five sometimes they're sending four but it's like you as an offense you can't know which four are coming and sometimes it's overloaded it's just so so advanced and then also he's like he's brilliant in the way the floor is here is brilliant in the way like he predicts how each offense individually, so he's not running the same plays over and over, but he's dropping those cover guys into the exact areas of the field where he thinks that specific offense is going to attack.

It's really, really cool. And there's also some pretty cool data on how much Goff specifically has struggled with this against him in their last few meetings. And then the last really cool thing that he's doing which I didn't even learn until this week. And I believe one of the Philly beat writers was talking about how this is a change that they made partially because of the way Jalen Hurts picked them apart last week.

But sometime late last season, it seemed like they started to allow Harrison Smith to call audibles right before the play.

And so one thing you'll notice, especially against some of the smarter, the veteran quarterbacks like Goff, is one advantage that they have had in the past against Brian Flores' defenses is if they are better than most at diagnosing what's coming and where the blitz is coming from, what type of coverage they're in to mask the blitz, so on and so forth, right before the snap, he can change the play.

Well, what Harrison Smith is doing is right before the snap, he's changing the play for Minnesota, and now the offense doesn't even have a chance to react with their own audibles ahead of the snap. It's just so ahead of their time, and I'm sure... Then in the next two, three years, we're going to see way more defenses playing this way.

But I think even if they try to recreate it, it's not just that Flores has come up with this totally new way of doing it, but he's also executing it at a really high level. And his players have now been playing this crazy, aggressive, really complex style for long enough that they're now comfortable in it where if you just tried to start a... Start playing this type of defense on a different team. It's like, they'd all be going, well, what am I supposed to do?

How are we supposed to handle all this stuff at once? They're actually comfortable with it. It's, it's just incredibly cool from a football perspective. And from a DFS perspective, it means I kind of want no part of anyone that's going up against them. And it also makes it harder to play Vikings because even in a game like this, I think offensively, like they're, they're not trying to say, Oh, we're playing Detroit. We need to really keep up and play a super aggressive style of offense.

I think they still are going to trust their defense. Yeah. Berger said bikes D for all the money you sold them. Forgot how many, uh, you know, we do this leverage lane show for both NFL DFS and PGA DFS. So year round, how many, um, Minnesota people that there are that follow along? Of course they want some Vikings talk here, man. You got it.

All right um you know some wild ones coming up just on this we'll talk more ways in a second guys how to leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage it but said you know Herbert getting his best lineman back along with lad trey uh qj and kohler coming off the buy with a puka bring back I think puka um very interesting probably talk more about him later and then um you know talking

About a lot of people were talking about the um drake may stuff right like assuming are we assuming aj brown is out obviously there's a lot of you know talk around the knee and the offseason the trade and how they take this guy if this is still what's happening I mean that's football and part of it, but a lot of people are talking about, you know, the over stacking with the Patriots may Stevenson receivers. And then Derek Henry was mentioned, right?

If you want a piece of that Baltimore Buffalo game, but what are, what are some of the ways you're seeing to leverage this and attack with, because some interesting things, I guess one thing that just stood out for me that somebody mentioned it now about Jake Ferguson was, was mentioned as definitely a way to get different in that game. But, uh, I think the other thing that's interesting is like tight ends against Arizona thing, definitely. Ceiling, all these other things.

But the other, the one for me actually is Algiers stinks like bad and who else is going to do anything? And love is full on go. This Cowboys Rush D is useless. That is a wicked flip of the build. When you've got people on Javonte, how can you play it differently? If people are, you know, moving now to Michael Wilson and born and whatever else.

And if you can't get to McBride or something and you want to get a piece in that game to get different, nobody, and if it's a mid tier build, I get it, but it's a unique, There's so many running backs on this slate that you could go to that nobody's going to, but at least if you're going to stay in that game, I think looking for somebody like him is a way to get different. I liked your Pickens call as well.

Like if he's this week's Jamison Williams, most certainly could be a thing. Yeah, man, I have like negative interest in Ferguson. It's not to the point where like Spanford is playing ahead of Ferguson, but Spanford's taking a lot. And Ferguson like he's he's just running cardio out there right now. I mean, it's yeah. It's, it's crazy how, uh, how little he's being used.

You still could run well in the sense of like, you know, earlier this season, um, there was a week where, uh, you know, Dallas was very popular and then Ferguson caught two touchdowns and he might've had like three receptions or four reception in the game, but two of them happened to be touchdowns. You could run really well that way, but like the days where you could run into, you know, an eight reception, ADR two touchdown game, like they seem totally gone.

And so, uh, I, I have no interest in Ferguson there. Yeah, eleven games, a lot of tight ends on the slate as well. So again, obviously it fits your stacks, and so I get it from that perspective. But just going down the board, I think our projectionProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections actually on span forward right now is close to Ferguson. But I mean, Ferguson is way down our board, at least when you're looking at it. There's just so many other ways that you can go and stacks that you can fit.

So I think some of the... I think sometimes people need to also think about that as like, if that's your feeling, probably can get some really good profits in because that the numbers that you're seeing on screen of like the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership value here, the ownership value is baked in. Sure. But he doesn't even fit the screen. I have a pretty big monitor over here and he's not even on it. For tight ends. So it's like that.

I mean, for DFS, I don't know if he's going to be the piece. Could be. Stack him accordingly. Make it at least make sense if it happens. Because if it's two touchdowns for him, that's already two for Dak. And then whatever else you want to put in with it and go there. And most Likely, at least, who knows what trick plays they run. But I guess my point being, can't see him running an end around or anything like that.

So if you're doing that, though, whatever's baked into the low ownership could be baked into... The would-be most Likely baked into the props. So I think you'd look at that and see what you can find out there. But Spanford has definitely been on the field quite a bit now.

All right, so in terms of how to leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build, the first thing that comes to my mind that I actually think is, okay, this is a real viable way to attack this slate, is although the running backs that people are going to, these five... $5,000 low $6,000 running backs, although they seem to all have really good floors, I'm not super afraid of any of their ceilings.

So I think the first option that we have at, uh, at leveraging the chalk bill is like, what if I just find running backs who separate from those guys? What if, what if they all get it's a, you know, it's, it's close to like literally the most expected outcome for those players. But I find somebody who gets twenty five. I find somebody who gets thirty. And I do think there are multiple options in the same price range.

Jalen Warren, Tony Pollard, Brees Hall, Ashton Gentee. Like, I think that's probably the first way that I can see of of really leveraging the chalk build and just trying to separate a little bit with the same price range of running back. What has Bucky done to hurt anybody really ever? He just, I mean, just almost won me the Mills last week. So I've obviously got a bias here, but he's $6,400. He's getting some ownership.

I know he falls into like the secondary grouping for sure. But still, I mean, we we saw the week with Hubbard and the Carolina defense going up against a popular Bijan that week. And so flipping the build in that sense, like he fits up there. I like the one that you mentioned, like Jalen Warren. Nobody wants him at $6,600. You just told me Tony Pollard was dog shit last week and he stomped all over Cleveland.

I know Dowdle and all these different things. I'm getting it. But why? I mean, I can't imagine a world where the Steelers decide to take Warren off the field as much. I think Dowdle is still interesting. Maybe that's more profiting and things like that, too. But my point being like Warren has explosiveness. And when you talk about that ceiling factor, when I'm just doing this as an exercise, but you sort by ceiling.

Okay, Tootin, Brown, and Javonte are the ones that really stand out as like who people are actually on in a lot of lineups already. But like Gibbs, Robinson, Cook, Kenneth Walker, Bucky, Derrick Henry, Kyron, Taylor, Stevenson people are on, but Pollard, Warren, Jeanty, you mentioned all those guys. There's a ton of other guys that you can go to there.

And get different let me ask you this if you were real quick uh you reminded me of something I wanted to ask you uh I I was watching I was watching you and pat yesterday and and pat had a line of like asking if I had talked to you off of Pollard did I say something about Pollard last week that was like really really negative that I'm forgetting No. And when I was saying you, I'm talking to the general public. I don't remember anything about that.

Sometimes we just go back and forth on it. But I think it was... Honestly, I wasn't on the show with Pat last week. Remember? Yeah. Right? I had a doctor's appointment. So you were on the show with him. And that's, I think, what he's talking about. Like, you talked to him. Maybe you just said, like, obviously not in...

I want to ask him that too, because I don't recall saying something really negative about Pollard and Pollard was the highest GPPGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Read the full definition of GPP score running back on the slate for me by lock. So I don't know. Maybe that changed after Spears was ruled out. I don't know, but I don't think I said something really negative about him. I will say from the data perspective and you run literally blickanalytics.com.

I mean, it's going to be analytics and data, but it, I know it was only like a point to two point bump with the spirit. Like we were already kind of expecting it and blah, blah, blah. But until you put it in, you don't see the effect on the lineups. And I can tell you for sure from my stuff, like late, even over on the stone at Ship It Nation, like everyone's like, well, He was no good on the stone.

Did you check Sunday morning after the inactives? That's when you should be building your lineups. And he doubled for his optimal rates. And that's based on, again, how often is he showing up in the optimal lineupOptimal LineupAn optimal lineup is a legal roster that maximizes fantasy points under the salary cap and roster rules. After games, it uses actual scores; before games, a projected optimal uses estimated scores and any lineup restrictions you set.When reviewing an optimal, replace its most surprising scorer with a realistic pregame alternative. Check whether the remaining construction still offered a credible path to winning your contest.Read the full definition of Optimal Lineup? But it's like, again, it's not just him, but it's like he did get up to almost ten or eleven percent after he was at like four or five. He just those two points sometimes matter. And then what does he do for the rest of your build?

So that's where it came from. And importantly, like the reason why that that's the case is because, you know, one point of projectionProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections, like, where is that point coming from? It's, it's not, it's not just telling you that. Okay. He's going to get one point more than he otherwise would have in every outcome. It's that in some outcomes, he just got you like ten to fifteen extra DraftKings points through receiving work that he otherwise never would have had with Spears.

Or he stayed in for an extra drive when they... Were trailing late because they didn't have Spears to get some work to. So yeah, it's more meaningful than what that small projection boost can sometimes show. So maybe that's why he ended up a higher GPP score. But I think he was a pretty good GPP score all week. So if I did say something negative about him to Pat, I guess I'll have to apologize for that.

My data was telling me something other than I maybe said to Pat. I don't know. No, it's the Michael Jordan. I took that personally. He's, he's holding it against you, but also, sorry, man, you're taking the brunt of that one. Just like your horrible Brock Bowers call last week. No, he's kidding. Obviously we were both very interested in that. So I think that's part of it.

I mean, obviously people like when we talk the game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack here, So that's to me, you know, taking it back to our original point about like the Sean Watson stuff last week. That's when this conversation came up, by the way, it was when we were saying, well, do you want to go over to Cleveland, Tennessee? And then funny enough, it ends up being like right where you kind of should have been or could have been, or would have made sense with Pollard.

It would have forced you to then get some of those stacks. And then once you have a lineup like that, you can kind of fit everything around it. I think we've had enough conversation around Dak and Burrow. And obviously there's pieces within those games that you can get different with, but One last thought I want to just leave with that before we move on to some of these other game stacks. Io Manor, Wandel Robinson, Gunnar Helm.

Like, do you sit on, like, if you are stacking that, I know how high you are on the run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back and putting one in there. And I also think that goes to, like, This, by the way, I'm going in two places here, but when people are saying, I'm going to run naked this and not stack this week and just play the best plays and all of that, seems like a horrible idea to me personally, but we'll see how it all shakes out.

But that's not what I'll be doing. I'm going to lean in to the stacks because even in the popular quarterbacks, People aren't going with triples, and in some cases, they're surprisingly not even going with doubles, right? There's scared money in the Dak game of saying, well, I'll go to Lamb instead of Javonte, but I'm not adding Pickens or whatever else. In the other game, well, I can fit...

Chase Brown and Higgins but I can't get to Ja'Marr Chase well might want to think about that because Ja'Marr Chase is the guy that could really smash there and you can find the thousand dollars it exists so um just real quick on the Titans run backs how are you thinking about is Pollard the guy that he needs to have another good game to make that work or how are you thinking about some of the ways to go about that if you were building for the borough stacks Man, I think I'd want Pollard, and I think I would want to avoid the same thing everyone else is doing in that.

The conditional ownership within Borough Stacks for both Wandale and Iowa Manor is going to be really high. And so I would either want... A different cheap receiver. Like maybe it's DK who gets a deep ball instead. Maybe, maybe they try and showcase, uh, Calvin Ridley before they try to ship him off. And so, uh, you know, maybe I'd go that route. I'd probably just go Pollard. You could even potentially like try to save a ton of money with gunner helm. Uh, that's disgusting to me though.

So I think it would just be Pollard and try to do it that way, but I would definitely go with both Higgins and chase. Chimera DK, like they talked about as well. Yeah, there's that's the thing. There's a lot of different ways that you could go. If we just look at like some of the wide receiver stuff, though, we have the negative leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage. I know you've got the GPPGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Read the full definition of GPP scores.

I cannot imagine a world where Io Manor or Wandale Robinson are looking good on your stuff from a GPP score perspective. If I sort the GPP scores from the bottom, Io Manor and Wandale Robinson are second and third worst. I thought you were going to say something else. Yeah, like they're definitely popping for value, but yeah, that's kind of what I was expecting to hear.

That game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack, it's like no matter how you set it up and people are like, I'm going to go to Isle Manor instead of Wandale or whatever, like you're fitting into a similar build. And then if you're adding all those mid-range running backs, et cetera, it is a really good lineup on paper. It will project well. You'll be able to make a case for whatever you want to make a case for. But I think that there's different ways to go about the build.

So- Let's talk about these other game stacks. You mentioned earlier, and I hinted at it as well in the grand scheme overview of it, but there's a lot of these totals.

First off, the Buffalo-Baltimore game, and then at the big boy total that just people can't figure out how to stack it, or if they do, we know they're kind of going to lamar with maybe one or two again another one how many people are playing lamar zay lane and Andrews and something different versus how many people are saying okay I can get zay in there or I can go with zay and lane or I can go with zay and Andrews like I see that being the side where people would end up on but um talk about that game and then tell me where you want to go next based on the you know that run of Yeah, I think it's actually a really good segue

To talk about Baltimore-Buffalo because I also wanted to add some thoughts to that comment that you brought up on screen where Jason was talking about using a naked quarterback lineup as a lever that he was going to pull for the slate. So let's start here because we've talked about this before, but I want to bring it back. Imagine... Like an all-knowing fantasy god Chrome extension that you could install on your laptop.

And as you're building your lineup, like every time you click a player, there's like a bar that adjusts. And that bar is your top one percent outcome likelihood. And so like you start with a blank screen, you haven't built anything and you've got a one percent chance for a top one percent outcome. And now you click somebody and adjust a little bit. You know, maybe it really likes Lamar Jackson this week. And so it goes to one point one percent.

Every time you click somebody, it's going to adjust and it's going to tell you like you're real, your true probability of a top one percent outcome. Not not what the Sims are telling you, what a like perfect all knowing tool is telling you. You want to maximize that true top one percent outcome, true top one percent outcome probability. And a choice like that, going naked or saying, you know what? I really like Lamar Jackson here. I really like, say, Flowers, but I don't like anything else.

I'm just going to skinny stack that type of decision, even if it really likes those players. It's going to bring that bar down. It's going to take you below one percent. You're now helping everybody else have a better chance at a top one percent outcome because you're doing something that just makes it a lot harder for you. It doesn't mean that doing so can't lead to a really good outcome.

If you go from one percent to one and a half percent as soon as you choose Lamar and Zay and then you drop down to point eight percent because you didn't include any more correlationCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation that afterwards, it's like you still have a point eight percent chance at a top one percent outcome. It's still going to happen sometimes. And someone who's building this week in a similar manner or with a naked quarterback like.

You're going to see in some contest somebody with a lineup like that that did really well or took down the whole thing. Doesn't mean you should have done it. Doesn't even mean they should have done it unless they have some perfect premonition about who's going to do exactly what and get those ceilingCeilingCeiling is the high end of a player's or lineup's realistic range of fantasy scores. It describes a big performance that could happen when things go well, not the expected score or an absolute maximum.Describe what must happen for each player to have a huge game. Then check whether those conditions help or hurt the other players in your lineup.Read the full definition of Ceiling outcomes. You're just making things harder on yourself that way. And so...

When I think about this Baltimore-Buffalo game, I don't really know how to approach it because I do think Zay Flowers is a tremendous play. I do think both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in a vacuum are tremendous plays. It's just, how do I build an actually good lineup with them that's well-correlated? And I don't know the answer to that. I do think the best... The best answer is probably Lamar Lane Zay.

But I also think it might be a week where we can do some fun stuff where it's Josh Allen single stacked, and then two Baltimore guys is the bring backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back, and you just hope that you get the multi-rushing touchdown game from Josh Allen. The problem there is even if I make that decision, I still don't have any clue which Buffalo guy I should be using with him. Yeah.

So for me on those, especially with a good quarterback, I'm fine with a skinny and like a run back, but it's still like, I'm probably still trying to, if I land on the double and then the double also eats away at a chalk receiver that instead of just plugging in the one offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off, I'm playing the guy that fits the stack. I prefer just to live and die.

By the double stack there because it's like, if I really want to get this all the way there and people say not to or whatever, that's more what I told you at the start of the season where I adjusted my game. I had a better week one through, we'll say one through five. Six was horrible. One through five was much better than it's ever been. And then seven, of course, I always win in week seven. So that's what happened in week seven.

But the one through five was like, okay, I'm not going to try and figure this out when there's... Twenty valueValueValue is the fantasy production you expect from a player relative to his salary. A value play offers more production or upside than his price suggests, whether he is cheap or expensive.Identify why the salary looks wrong: workload, matchup, scoring ability or a pricing error. Then check whether that reason still holds when you submit your lineup.Read the full definition of Value plays right there as much as it does make my ticker go down a little bit. But remember, I'm working with a pretty good ticker over here, the rest of the build. So it's like if I make that one decision, I know if I can make that or not. And I know what I'm accepting by doing it.

That's the important part of DFS and understanding the game and knowing how to, you know, what the move means for the rest of your stuff. That's why to your point on this, like I said, why I wouldn't be doing this is because you're just trying to pick what you're trying to make way too many things happen. It's like that's not going to be the case.

One thing I have to also call out, again, not even against somebody, just in general, I talk about this so much, and I'm always trying to give a little motivation too, Alex. You're a reader. You follow self-development. We get along very good on this stuff. When someone says a team, it says Bengals are very strong against the run, even if that's true. And I don't know that it fully is.

I remember some certain games are like Warren and guys like that, but it's, it's have been very strong in a case of if it's even true in an argument like this, it actually has no bearing on today's game. Oh, this guy eats against this team. And then somebody else smashes them. Oh, this wide receiver cornerback matchup. And then that guy slips or, or they don't actually shadow. And you're like, Oh, That's interesting. He didn't shadow. Well, now you can't make no money on it.

It already happened. The event's over. So you, you lost the opportunity and everything is baked in from that perspective. And the motivation I talk about is sometimes people say, I have to do this today. Oh shit. I have to wake up and do that podcast at eight thirty where I talk about sports like everybody in the world would probably love to do. No, I get to, I get to wake up and do that. That's how you got to, I have to go pick up the kids.

Oh man, this is killing me. You have to go. No, you, you, you get to. Some people would love, some people can't have kids and would want to go be able to pick up their kids. Some people would go, you know, all different factors. My point being all things you're talking about as obvious is and must be, or they're always this way, always and only can get you into a lot of trouble in DFS because it's not true, right? Anything can happen.

Shout out to my guy, Kevin Garnett, anything is possible. And that's the same in DFS. So we've got to think about that. We're not cutting and pasting productions. We're not saying it's going to be the same result. We're talking about builds and ways to leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage and ways to think about putting yourself in the position. So if it falls that way, because it doesn't always go that way, it sometimes does.

So that's the thing, you know, you got to think about it from that perspective. Go ahead. Yeah, I also like looking at matchups at a little bit more of a granular level and kind of understanding why a team has been as good as they've been in a certain regard. And so, for example, like with Cincinnati, they're number one in stuffed rate on run plays. They're twenty sixth in open field yards per attempt. And so what this says to me is like.

Pollard has a very wide range of outcomes in his rushing this week where he might just get stuffed over and over and over again, especially because Cincinnati probably isn't going to be respecting the pass in any way. It might be Josh Jacobs efficiency-esque type performance from Pollard.

It also might be a case where Most of the time he's getting stuff through, he's getting very little, but, oh, he happened to have two, thirty yard touchdowns or, you know, one thirty yard touchdown and a sixty yard touchdown. And guess what? Those two runs just made him a slate breaker again. And so I think the range of outcomes is pretty wide for him. And If he was twenty percent, thirty percent on something like that, then. All right.

I have no interest whatsoever in that type of range of outcomes for him. But if he's going to be really contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian and certainly if he's going to be like the most contrarian way to play a Cincinnati stack where those explosive runs are also going to really, really help that Cincinnati stack, then it becomes viable. And so I'm actually with this commenter in the sense that I'm really not that interested in Pollard this week. But if I were playing a Cincinnati stack...

That's when you do it. He's not twenty percent owned. You nailed it on the head on that last part when you said it. The people, again, that are focused on the picks and the plays are talking about chasing and going back to him and all of that. Nobody wants Tony Pollard this week. He's probably going to be ten percent. Nobody's playing this guy.

What we're saying is, you know that people are playing Joe Burrow and Chase Brown and Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and then they're plugging in Io Manor or Robinson or whatever else it is. You can go to a Ridley. I mean, assuming he plays, I think he's Q tag, but he's Likely to play. You got him. You can go to helm at tight end. Like he said, what we're saying is, and that's what the original question was for Alex is in a Cincinnati stack.

What's the way you're thinking about using a run back that would speed up the game and allow it to get to where, okay, now we got a game. It's not chase. You're building that lineup for that outcome. When it doesn't happen, it goes in the garbage with the rest of them. You're only got, if you're, even if you win on Sunday, it's Likely that it was one lineup that came through for you.

So even somebody out there with a hundred and fifty, a hundred and forty nine go to the pasture to die the one lineup shows up at the top and that's how it works out so just we're talking about building accordingly there's not I don't care about Tony Pollard the pick or the play it's if I was building a bengal stack and thinking of a way that could help it get there and get to a ceiling that's what you'd be thinking about and then I wouldn't care about the matchup I would care about the one time that the game goes this this way same reason When people are posting all those things out there right now, like we sim this late $10,000 times.

This is what happened. Blah, blah, blah. It's cool. Lots of people are tacking onto it and watching it and engaging with it. It's interesting to see it play out to actually show what a simulation actually looks like. But it's is it real? No, because there's $9,000 nine hundred and ninety nine. You're not seeing and it can be any of those as well. So people like look at it and go, I'm betting all these props because the simulation said this.

Well, you've got to think about the rest of the stuff, too. So. Where do you want to go next with Buffalo Baltimore? You said to mention that. You mentioned a little bit there. Anything else on that game? If not, where do you want to go next for a game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack?

Yeah, I don't really have much more to add to it other than I think I agree with you that it is one where I would probably say the best route is to break the rule and use a little bit less correlation than usual. But to me, that means, all right, I'm not really going to consider it for single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry, three entry, stuff like that.

That's just something that if I were MMEing this week, I'd be overweight on both and I'd play it that way and then I'd get all my correlation in other builds. The two stacks that I'm most intrigued by right now are first, very interested in some Drake May stuff. I think you can make it really cheap.

The issue that I have with the Drake May stuff is like, I don't really want to save too much money through my stacks this week because I think as we talked a lot about, this is a week where I would like to be paying upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up more at wide receiver than at other positions or especially more than at running back.

But if I'm going like, drake may Tyler Williams pop Douglas Caleb Douglas or something like that it's like okay well now I can only pay it once at uh at wide receiver so even though I really like the spot and I like the thought it's like man I really wish I had that version of this stack on past slates but it doesn't do a ton for me this late the the one that's probably the most intriguing to me right now is actually Geno Smith stuff you could go like geno Omar Cooper and Garrett Wilson, both of them have really, really good GPPGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Read the full definition of GPP scores over Black Analytics.

And then use Bowers as the bring backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back and pay up a tight end, try to get separation that way. So there, at least I'm only using two of the wide receiver spots. One of them is a bit of a pay up option at the position in Garrett Wilson. Both of them have really, really good upside. And then, of course, you get all the upside in the world with Brock Bowers. So that's the one at the moment that's probably the most intriguing to me.

I like the Gino one. And the thing about the Gino one that's interesting is that it's what you said with the runbacks. I mentioned it earlier too. And I'm not, again, just like I said, I don't really care about this stuff. I just note it for how it would, how it would make the stack go. And you know, I've been on Gent. He was my leverage lane a couple of weeks back. He started really strong and they didn't have a great game last week.

He's had a lot more, by the way, through the passing game, which is intriguing for DraftKings because nobody's on him, but the two run stuffers on the guys on the Jets, I forget their names. I'm not like, cause I don't follow that stuff heavily enough, but they are not going to play or like one's out and one's doubtful. So to me, if there was ever a spot, but what I think he just can make the game go quick. So can Bowers.

And if I want to be in on this game, I kind of want to be in on this game. And so back to it, like you said with him, um, Look, I don't know if we're getting another twenty people that said about the chasing stuff. Again, this is within a game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack. But the Omar Cooper stuff from the week before, oh, there's no way he can do that again. And then he did it again the very next week. And again, you don't need that out of him.

It's not like his price is insanely off the board. You could get, you know, a good game out of him and still matter. But if Garrett Wilson has a good game, you actually have stacking partners on the other side. So that's what I like about this, because you mentioned with like Gentee, Trey Tucker, Bowers, these are speed-up guys. Well, I think Jeanty and Trey Tucker, sorry, are speed-up guys.

I think Bowers, though, the most interesting thing about him is if anyone's paying up, we know it's for McBride. So when you put him, you start thinking about, is it going to be Jeremiah Love? Is it going to be Bourne? Is it going to be that I'm going to say... People wonder, how are they correlatedCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation? If you're on the guy that hurts the payout version of McBride to crush him down, you also want to know where those McBride points are going.

Maybe nowhere. Maybe you're on Javonte and the Dallas D in that lineup. And it fits too. I don't know. I'm just saying that's how I would think about it from that perspective on how to leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage the field and already have very unique options that you could land on some of those popular plays at that point. And I like it more because one thing that stood out to me, just in early data here, is like Aaron Rodgers. DK Metcalf is only $5,400.

Jeremy Bernard is still only forty nine and they're still without their guys. Pitt Pittman and Wilson are gone. Like so it can still work. Fryer, Muth, et cetera. But I don't really love the Cleveland stuff on the other side that much as much as they were just in my great lineup last week. It's just I just it's harder to get to it. Yeah. Right. So you'd have to pick your poison in Concepcion or Boston. You just cut out. Oh, you came back.

Came back, sorry. Yeah, I was just saying it's not as intriguing to me when I don't love the runbacks as much as in the Geno stuff. I do like the runbacks there. So that to me would be a spot that I would go for sure. I'll let you follow up on that. But the other spot I wanted to talk about actually was in the afternoon.

I'm not having any faith in the Chargers side, but in getting healthy and having guys back, I saw some baby swag for Ladd McConkie posted out there. It's Leverage Lane, not Narrative Street, by the way. But just to note it, I do have interest though in the other side. Some of it will be with my leverage lane, but there is that Stafford stack in the afternoon.

By the way, there's afternoon games on this slate, but they're not the big games that everyone's looking at as it usually is the case. In the afternoon, you've got the Drake May stuff. You've got the Stafford stuff and that, but you can go other places. It is a little bit interesting that the two cheap defenses... Are some of the more popular places that people are going in the afternoon.

So a lot of people are going to be sitting with a nice lineup, winning a lot of money, and then being like, all right, let's go Denver D or Chargers D against the Rams. So is there anything from the afternoon portion of the classic slateClassic ContestsNFL Classic contests use players from multiple games. On DraftKings, you fill nine spots within $50,000: one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one flex and one team defense/special teams.Check the included games before building. A Classic contest can cover a small afternoon slate rather than the full day, changing your available players and lineup options.Read the full definition of Classic Contests that you'd want to talk about there from a stacking perspective or just any other thoughts? No, I think... As far as the Chargers stuff goes, I actually agree with the mindset of, hey, they're off their bye.

What if they do look a lot better this week? But the nice thing there is I think we can be pretty confident that most of that would run through Ladd-McConkie. Even if it's just like, okay, they look a little bit more like what they looked like in week one when they were at full strength. That was all Ladd before he got hurt. He was going to have a monster game in week one. So I would just play Ladd as a one-offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off.

Uh, and, uh, and certainly he's, he's a potential, you know, late swapLate SwapIn NFL contests with late swap, you can change unlocked afternoon or evening players after earlier games begin. Only games included in that contest's player pool are available.Before the first games lock, identify affordable backup combinations for your later players. Check that each combination fits the open positions, then confirm your saved changes in every affected entry.Read the full definition of Late Swap option is, uh, somebody who could be a potential separator if you need at that point in time, or you could go, uh, you know, a little bit safer there. So, so yeah, I think that's kind of my only thoughts on the late games. I'm not, I'm not super interested in much.

Um, I do think Jonah Coleman a good play at running back and, and that's a bit of a segue into what my leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage line is going to be. Yeah. Do you see, um, well, sorry, what do you see for the ownership on him right now? Where does he fit in for you in some of this stuff?

Like let's use like some of the higher stakes, smaller field doesn't really matter, but if it's the higher stakes, I guess more of the smaller field, single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry stuff, anything there that you're thinking about? Yeah, I've got him around like, uh, I think there's a pretty good chance he ends up a little bit higher, but It's weird. Like you'd think, okay, $4,300 running back who's projecting well, like he could really get up there to like thirty percent.

But as we kind of showed earlier, like you can build stuff where we had three stud receivers in there. With Joe Burrow and we didn't go below mid tier and running back. And so like, it's weird. I almost think Jonah Coleman ownership is going to be held in check because people don't need the savings at running back the way they've needed it.

Uh, most of the season, you know, they're like, again, you know, we, we made the price comparison differences like with, with Gibbs compared to most slates. Like if you gave us a $4,300 running back on every slate this year, most slates that would have been, $2,000 cheaper than like the pocket of running backs that were cheapest and projecting pretty well for their price.

This week, it's, you know, fifteen hundred, you know, some it's even like, you know, twelve, thirteen hundred, something like that. So he's just not saving as much as what we have seen on a lot of slates so far this year. And that might keep him in check. But yeah, I want to be surprised with twenty, twenty five at most.

Yeah that's that's what I'm thinking I guess the other thing too is you've got the conditional ownership over there and you can see it but man the Denver d with Coleman stuff that'll be another thing that's sitting there in the afternoon that people will be hoping brings them to the promised land and you better have the rest of it right because that's not something that I would want to fully be counting on I know in some lineups that's it and it makes the case and I get it but it's just like it's opportunity sure did you did you see side note because we're getting close to the end anyway did you see the jk Dobbins interview no go watch it.

I'm curious the, the chats takes and you guys can put it in the comments as well. But he basically, the reporter asked him like how it feels being the vet and getting taken over by these young guys and all this stuff. And he kind of took it a little bit personal, but I thought it was like the most professional way possible. He's like, did you watch the game? And the guy's like, yes. He's like, what'd I do in the first half?

And he's like, Twenty something yards. He's like, how many carries? Four. He's like, so how's that? Five yards per carry. The guy did the reporter did the math horribly, which was hilarious. He said four something. He's like, of course, that's quite obvious. Five something. So he did that. And then anyway, he walked him down the path of like, you know, how he's just a team player. He's there. You know, Jonah, the rookies are his guys. He's helping them out.

He wants to the end of the day, they win. They want to win games. That's what they're about. And I thought it was just really funny. You don't usually see it go. So smoothly back and forth. He wasn't aggressive, but he had his answers plugged in. It was pretty solid. So check it out if you guys haven't seen it already. All right. Real quick, before we go to Leverage Lane, I want to give you a little quick quiz here.

So in the main event field projected that I have, do you want to take a guess at the conditional ownership of the Broncos DSTDefense/Special Teams (DST)Defense/Special Teams (DST) is a roster selection representing one NFL team's combined defense and special teams, rather than an individual player. It earns fantasy points through sacks, takeaways, defensive and return touchdowns, and other plays, with adjustments for points allowed.Compare what a DST upgrade costs elsewhere in your lineup. If paying more forces you off an important offensive role, check whether a cheaper defense offers a credible path through sacks and turnovers.Read the full definition of Defense/Special Teams in Jonah Coleman lineups? Oh, God. I'm always the worst at this. Like, how much... I have them at twenty two point six percent overall. So certainly higher than most of what the market's going to have for him. Yeah. So it's going to be what? Fifty ish. Thirty seven percent. Thirty seven. Yeah.

I thought it'd be a little higher, but I don't know what you have him at. But I guess like my obvious when people are wondering, like if they don't know what that is and you brought it up in the past so people can see it. Blick analytics dot com. You guys can check it out with promo code Tambo or leverage. Check it out there.

But I would say, yeah, like when you see the Broncos up that high, we know it in the higher stakes, they're going to be there. There could be late swapsLate SwapIn NFL contests with late swap, you can change unlocked afternoon or evening players after earlier games begin. Only games included in that contest's player pool are available.Before the first games lock, identify affordable backup combinations for your later players. Check that each combination fits the open positions, then confirm your saved changes in every affected entry.Read the full definition of Late Swap and stuff. Sure. But in, in general, you'll see that. And then also, um, you know, he's just going to be in so many, he's going to be paired so much more with them than just on his own.

So that's, that's kind of the setup that people are looking at when they're trying to figure it out. So that's a high one for sure. Definitely. So, yeah, I think a lot of people will land there to, to end their lineups. Yeah.

And I don't necessarily think it's like a terrible idea to put them together, but, uh, If the other thing there is like, you know, if you have them together and you're waiting to see if like you can be less chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk late in the day, you're not going to have many pivots off a $4,300, $2,300 running back DST pairing.

So leaning on late swap there to be that chalky might not be the best option, but it's not like it's impossible to find some options there. So. Well, that's what I said earlier. That's my point. I get it, but I said you better have the rest of your lineup to the house because, man, it's not horrible. It's Denver at home. It's against Kansas City. I get it. There's tons of options.

You've got Coleman in a good spot, sure, so you're going to take it, but I don't think you're going to be able to have a lot of holes in the lineup to get all the way there, and I don't think you're going to have many swaps. To get there. So, you know, I think that's what's pretty interesting about it because you'd, you can drop to the Chargers and go up to as high as $4,600.

You could leave money or have a built in plan if you wanted. That's another thing you could do. But yeah, you're going to need a lot. And I don't think this is going to be either.

Of our leverage lane but anytime you can get a running back that's when we talked about paying upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up being leverage on this slate he certainly fits the bill or a guy that you could put in there and you're going against a chalk defense against the chalk running back that's cheaper on the other side so you're naturally flipping multiple angles of what alex just talked about if you're sitting look if someone's sitting there at the end of the day and you've got two guys with Coleman and um the Denver d or you've got kenneth walker

On the other side I don't know about you guys I would be feeling better myself about having kenneth walker I don't care what the defense has done in the past this that the other anything I would still prefer that type of ceiling out of one guy versus the other two hoping that they hit like you know their highest outcome possible it's just it doesn't seem as Likely for me I'd be happy to be on the other side what about you yeah I I agree I think uh I do think the chief's call is uh is a nice call out by darren in the chat What did Darden say?

Chiefs D? Yeah. Yeah. Chiefs D. So yeah, more on that. I've got a couple of different things. I'm all over the place, but I've solidified what mine is going to be. But maybe I'll throw mine out there first. Then you can lay your story out on yours. We've teased it long enough anyway. May as well wait a minute. Just a little bit longer. So if you guys like...

This show make sure to hit that thumbs up make sure to subscribe to the channel we've got plenty more coming your way be back nine a.m eastern tomorrow with hoop title and myself for Sunday shippers once we get all the extra stuff in overnight we'll have all the content up over at shipitnation.com but my leverage lane for the week that I settled on and it can correlateCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation with some of the other ones I was thinking about but um I I definitely want to pay up at defense I talked about it earlier.

I think only the Steelers are getting played, and they're not even my favorite of the pay-upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up Ds. If you go look at all the options, I like the Bengals to slice and dice Chase Brown. I really like Chase Brown, so you can put that one in there. I like the Jags. They can come in handy. We'll talk about that, I'm sure. The Patriots are fine.

They're on the road, but if you're already on Ramondre or you already want something like that, I think that is fine. And then I even think it's the Rams in the spot. I know we said the Chargers coming off the buy all that, but they're the opposite of the cheap D. And like, nobody wants any of these. So to me, I'm interested in all of them. The Chiefs just got mentioned there. So a lot of pools are going to have more Broncos, Chargers.

I'll have some of those too, but I'm thinking about a lot of lineups that will have late swapLate SwapIn NFL contests with late swap, you can change unlocked afternoon or evening players after earlier games begin. Only games included in that contest's player pool are available.Before the first games lock, identify affordable backup combinations for your later players. Check that each combination fits the open positions, then confirm your saved changes in every affected entry.Read the full definition of Late Swap that you could move off of those. I won't just have the Coleman Broncos situation we just talked about. And then another thing I was going to say too, is there's nothing better than like switching it up.

If you've got a Kenneth Walker Chiefs D as opposed to a Coleman and a Denver D yes, something else is going to have to change in your lineup, but it's the point of having that. I think Puka was another guy I was going to go with.

I get he's going to have some ownership, but when you've got Lamb and Ja'Marr Chase and all those mid-range guys and all the balanced buildsBalanced BuildA balanced build spreads salary fairly evenly across a lineup, using mostly mid-priced players instead of a few stars and several minimum-salary players.Go balanced when the slate lacks trustworthy cheap plays. Forcing stars and scrubs without real value just fills your lineup with players who have no role.Read the full definition of Balanced Build and all that stuff, Puka's not only a great player, but also the fact that he's going up against the Chargers defense. So you're not going to see many lineups like that. So there's ways to flip it again, where you could have like a pay up D and Puka as opposed to a cheap D and not Puka.

So things like that, but pay up D for me this week is where I'm going to land. I'm How the rest of the lineup shakes out and what it looks like is where I'll pick one of those options, but it's those top five defenses there. The Chiefs up through the Bengals. Steelers are great too, but there are certain lineups there. I also think one last note on the Steelers, and I'll let you go with yours, is Jalen Warren. We mentioned him earlier.

He's another guy that I'd considered just saying it. It's like people told me, you know, Pollard stinks and he drops almost forty. I'm not thinking Jalen Warren going to drop forty, but I do think it's somewhat interesting that a lot of people are on the Steelers when they are paying up. Not many people are on Jalen Warren this week. I get now. I said it earlier, all that stuff. I think he's interesting also. So give us the big tease, man.

I know this is going to be interesting and a fun breakdown for people, but I know what you're doing here. So let's let's see what you got. Yeah, by the way, Chiefs, Patriots, Jags, Bengals all have really good GPPGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Read the full definition of GPP scores, so I like yours quite a bit. All right, so... I talked a lot about this late about how I agree with the field that the upside is in the wide receivers, not the running backs this week.

So how do I kind of use that to my advantage when the field is already doing that? Well, I can try to find a way to do that even more extremely than what the field is doing. We have Jonah Coleman. We also have some other really kind of gross, cheap running backs. One of them is going to be my leverage lane. And before I talk about who, I just want to... I want to talk a little bit more about the playing DFS aspect of this.

And so one of the ways that this works is If the running back position as a whole doesn't have those separating performances, think back to week two, I think. There were multiple receivers who had thirty-five plus, and maybe there was one running back who had more than twenty-five.

When you have a slate like that, I could get eight points from this play, and he could be not optimal, but I could still go get takedowns if I have the right combination of expensive wide receivers who go off and things of that nature. The play is Chris Rodriguez. Now, Chris Rodriguez is not going to project well. There's no way around that. But he did have a red zone touch on three separate drives in their last game.

It was a thirty four to thirty one loss. It was actually a close game. He had eleven carries. Fifty five yards looked really good running the ball against a very good Houston defense. And he just didn't happen to score. And it wasn't just like three random touches inside the red zone.

It was like, he was the guy in the red zone until they weren't able to get, you know, they weren't able to punch the ball in tune and came in and they threw a pass to tune and he got in. I think toon had two touchdowns that game and had a third called back. Uh, Those easily could have been Rodriguez touchdowns instead. He was getting almost a fifty-fifty split. It was working well.

I expect a lot of the same, and I expect the Jags to really move the ball effectively against Indianapolis. It looks like there might be rain in that game, so it might be a run-heavy game as well, in which case they're going to want to mix him in more. I think he has a very clear path to touches. I think he has a much better path to red zone touches and touchdown equity than what people realize.

And then the huge thing is, if we're going to see ownership on Trevor Lawrence and Parker Washington, and certainly a ton of ownership on Bayshaltun, regardless of what the weather looks like, it's a massive leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage piece if Rodriguez can vulture touchdowns from them.

And so it's one of the things where it's very comical to think about, but it's also very easy to envision a scenario where Rodriguez scores twice, and everyone you see on Twitter is screaming about how How Vegas is rigged and they're getting Rodriguez touchdown solely because they know everyone has touchdown bets on Bashaw Tootin instead and things of that nature.

And so I think there's a very real path to, let's say, fifteen to twenty drafting points for Rodriguez where he leverages some of the important chalk on the slate. And gives you access to combinations of stud wide receivers with crazy good ceilings. Throw Bowers in there as well. You can get access to Bowers really easy. Like you could go Bowers and three stud wide receivers very easily in some builds that start like Jonah Coleman and Chris Rodriguez, something like that. And so I really love this one.

I think it's reminiscent of the quorum play that we've played very successfully over the last few weeks. And I think Rodriguez can be like basically an identical play to quorum, except even cheaper and lower ownership and more direct leverage off of some of the biggest chalk on the slate. Yeah, I can't. What week was the first week we talked about that quorum play? Because all really good stuff. And I want to add to it.

But do you remember what week it was when we talked heavy about quorum? It was, uh, it was right after, um, well, so I, I remember playing quorum on the, uh, on the week five showdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Read the full definition of Showdown slate against Buffalo. I think when we started to talk about him like heavily for DFS purposes was week six against Arizona where he finished with a nine forty two and, uh, and two for eighteen and a receiving touchdown.

And he had most of that in the first half. And then it was a much closer game than we all expected. And so he really didn't get much run in the second half. Otherwise, it could have been huge. And then last week, you finally get the game scriptGame ScriptGame script is how a game's score and time remaining influence its pace, play choices and player opportunities. In football, teams protecting a lead often run more, while teams chasing a deficit often pass more.Before locking a lineup, ask who keeps playing if your expected script reverses. Check passing-down roles and backup rotations instead of assuming a team's leading rusher handles every situation.Read the full definition of Game Script we were hoping for Corum. He gets seventeen point one with a forty two yard touchdown called back and a five yard touchdown called back.

So like seventeen point one, that that was actually him running bad somehow in that game. That could have been a thirty pointer from him at I remember he was four percent owned in the afternoon-only slate, and that was a three-gamer. He must have been one percent on the main slate. Yeah, because everything you said for C-Rod reminded me of it, and I found it. This is the beauty of the new free page over at Ship of Nations.

This is so cool, because we wanted Leverage Lane to always be something that there's evergreen to it, plus what we talk about. And people are like, hey, well, you kind of just mentioned C-Rod at the end, and I get it, but I didn't fully get it. And you did a fantastic job on this episode. It was...

Um you basically you go to shows on the page it's completely free go to Ship It Nation go to latest shows just type in leverage here and then go to week seven or sorry week six leverage lane this is how easy it is I'm just going down on our free show page They had to feed the damn guy right to the very end. Apologies.

But anyway, you go down here and I just typed in because I remember what we talked about was projectionsProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections versus conviction. And your first line on C-Rod was factually true. But again, I think people always take it the wrong way or like you're trying to come up with this magic play or whatever. It's like not the truth. You broke it down beautifully again. But you talked about on this very episode when conviction conflicts with projections and then how you can handle it.

And if people go here and just go into it I think you can just click like eight, fourteen and go change it. And it will take you right up here to when conviction conflicts with projections. You can watch Alex explain even more on the concept of what he just talked about with Rodriguez. And so great job on that. I like the idea. I mentioned earlier, like Jags D. What if you do that?

Right what if that's the payoff difference of him going down like if everyone has tootin and a cheap d you could now have Jags and Rodriguez it's I know it seems like it's nothing but it could be something you don't need to do that maybe the thousand is now t Higgins up to chase instead or where people can't get to that or you get puka and not the Chargers d or there's so many ways you can use it to your advantage but one thing I looked up was like uh where's it at here his His rush yards, when I saw it, he was still at almost like thirty five rush yards for his prop.

And people said, what's that going to do for you? I get it. But I'm saying it's like usually in a scenario like this, you see it at nothing. I think Corum was like twenty that week or something. So you're not really seeing much at all. And then you see almost forty for his Russian receiving and all these other things. You're starting to think like, oh, there actually could be something there. So I do think it's a little bit interesting when we find things like that.

I liked your call out. Quite a bit. You could pair them together. I'll pay upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up D in the Jags D and Alex's D or Alex's leverage lane with Rodriguez and then mix some other pieces around it. But anything else you wanted to add, I thought that was just cool that people could go back and actually see us talk about the evergreen topic of when it doesn't project well, but what you're getting from that instead.

Yeah, I think some interesting context there is like Jonah Coleman rush prop is forty four and a half and Rodriguez is thirty one and a half. So like our third are thirteen rushing yards. Now there's there's more to it, of course, but like I would argue that Rodriguez might have as much or more touch on equity than than Coleman given the matchups. So like our thirteen rushing yards worth twenty percentage points. Yeah. Nobody's using Chris Rodriguez.

Maybe this show will boost him up to like one and a half percent instead of point one percent that he otherwise would have been. But he's going to be insanely, insanely low on for sure. Yeah, I like that, man. You can fit a lot in with moves like that. So think about that when you guys are building your lineups out there. Alex, awesome show again, man. Let the people know what you've got going on, where they can find you, and then we'll get out of here.

Yeah, BlickAnalytics.com. Use promo code Leverage. Use promo code Tambo, whichever you desire, and get in on all the fun. So much roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Read the full definition of Roster Construction stuff, conditional ownership, contest sim stuff. It's been a really cool year, and hopefully it's going to continue that way. For sure. Yeah. Let's have another big week. Last week was awesome for both of us. Let's keep it rolling into week eight.

We saw many members and people from both discords, a lot of big scores and ships around there. So love to see that. Let's see it again. Let's make week eight. Great. It's like, as we like to say, but for myself, you guys can go to shipitnation.com bookmark that page. I just showed you it's completely free. Go check out. The tidbit that Alex dropped back in Leverage Lane episode six, when you find it there around the seven and a half minute mark.

And then you can find me on X, my handles on the screen at ToeTagginTambo, doing a bunch of different value and content over there as well, completely free for you guys. All right. That's going to do it for this one, guys. For Alex, for myself, ToeTagginTambo, good luck in your contest this week. Let's ship it.