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NFL DFS Week 5 Takedown Breakdown | Winning DraftKings Lineups & Strategy Review

Aired Mon Oct 12, 2026 Runtime 1:08:48 Chapters 19 Views 869

The Short Version

Tyler Tamboline and Matthew Belman review Week 5 winning DraftKings lineups and the decisions behind them. Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,800) was the only Detroit-Arizona piece needed in the perfect lineup, while Jaylen Warren and D'Andre Swift showed why injury-driven running back plays made sense. Drake Maye paired with DeMario Douglas ($3,500) left room for those backs and other ceilings. Cheap receivers could disappoint without sinking a lineup when the surrounding players delivered.

Brock Bowers ($7,000) remained worth paying for because his production compared with much pricier receivers, supporting double tight end builds. The broader lesson was to build backward from preferred plays, prepare for both injury-news outcomes and use secondary stacks to cover other strong games. Detroit-Arizona exposure depended on contest and lineup count, with both aggressive exposure and selective avoidance discussed. Satellite tickets should still be played to win rather than protected for a min-cash.

Plays Mentioned

PlayCallThe TakeAt
Jordan Love + Christian Watson + Matthew Golden + D'Andre Swift IN PLAY Swift could make sense on the opposite side of the Green Bay stack even without matching the slate's biggest running back scores. 4:02
His success was credited to already being featured and learning the playbook rather than simply benefiting from the Wilson injury mentioned in the discussion. 8:58
His unowned appearance in the perfect lineup illustrated how a double tight end construction could succeed without the most discussed tight ends. 19:15
PAY UP At $9,800, he needed a huge score, but he was viewed as being in the best spot on the slate and could supply the Detroit-Arizona exposure without a full game stack. 19:42
Drake Maye + DeMario Douglas IN PLAY The cheap receiver pairing was supported before the slate, with Mack Hollins out and a weakened Patriots defense offering a path to back-and-forth scoring. 20:39
VALUE At roughly $3,800, his salary helped a Jameis Winston game stack fit the stronger ceilings elsewhere, so his eventual 6.1 points did not ruin the construction. 21:02
PAY UP The $7,000 salary was defended because his receiving production compared with Jaxon Smith-Njigba at $2,300 more, making the positional price look less restrictive. 22:11
Jameis Winston + Malik Nabers + Isaiah Likely + Antonio Williams IN PLAY The reviewed stack used Antonio Williams as the bring-back and salary relief while the other pieces supplied the ceiling that kept the lineup competitive. 28:29
CHALK He was a popular cheap Pittsburgh receiver within the common salary-saving construction. 29:12
UNDERWEIGHT He was excluded once Ashton Jeanty was active; the $4,200 lead-back scenario only mattered if Jeanty sat. 30:59
Pittsburgh Stack + Jonathan Taylor BRING-BACK Jonathan Taylor was a bring-back option in Pittsburgh stacks to help create the faster game those builds wanted. 34:27
UNDERWEIGHT Avoiding a receiver around 50% ownership applied to the high-dollar or single-entry builds being discussed, not an unconditional exclusion from every lineup. 35:14
VALUE His salary opened the rest of the lineup, and Quentin Johnston being out supported using him despite his disappointing result. 39:36
CORE Rico Dowdle being out made him one of the running backs to start with before working backward to the quarterback stack. 41:00
CORE Kyle Monangai being out made him another starting point for construction, even though his eventual score was serviceable rather than essential. 41:00
The review highlighted his strong optimal rate and leverage rating, along with his production in winning constructions against the popular Washington defense. 42:11
Jets DST ONE-OFF The popular defense was acceptable in otherwise different builds because it was in a good spot and rated as the most optimal defense in the tools being reviewed. 42:34
VALUE His $3,500 salary fit the remaining money beside Drake Maye while retaining a positive leverage rating and a useful projection for that price. 43:20
Kyler Murray + Justin Jefferson + T.J. Hockenson + Aaron Jones + Chris Olave LEVERAGE This overstack targeted Minnesota-New Orleans with an Olave bring-back and a more balanced build to get away from Detroit-Arizona stacks and multiple cheap receivers. 48:07
Drake Maye + Romeo Doubs + Brock Bowers IN PLAY This was the other preferred quarterback setup, with Bowers providing the opposing piece and a route away from Trey McBride builds. 49:48
Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals Approaches were explicitly split: one favored exceeding the field with maximum entries, while the other omitted the game from two Mega lineups without making it a universal rule. 50:45
Jacoby Brissett + Trey McBride + Michael Wilson UNDERWEIGHT Within Brissett builds, the preferred alternative avoided the McBride-Wilson combination and used Kendrick Bourne with a Detroit piece plus Brock Bowers elsewhere. 52:09
Jacoby Brissett + Kendrick Bourne + Detroit Bring-Back IN PLAY A skinny Brissett-Bourne stack with Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jahmyr Gibbs coming back was considered as a different way to build the popular game. 52:35
LEVERAGE He was kept as a stud one-off because few lineups were getting to him, alongside the unusual afternoon construction. 54:00
Emanuel Wilson + George Kittle The low-owned afternoon pairing was retained as a secondary stack in the reviewed Drake Maye lineup. 54:00
ONE-OFF He was considered as a Detroit one-off for his reception volume, with the $200 savings from Ja'Marr Chase funding another lineup change. 54:25
VALUE At $5,400, he was considered in a two-for-two change that would pair him with the Jets defense, and his opportunity without Breece Hall had already made sense. 54:48
Commanders DST CHALK Ownership was recalled at roughly 60% in the FanDuel Juggernaut, making Washington a particularly popular defensive landing spot. 58:01
Vikings DST The reviewed winning lineup used Minnesota at $200 more than Washington, with the defense described as capable of a much bigger game against New Orleans. 59:34
In a season-long question, starting him alongside Josh Allen was recommended to collect both sides of a passing touchdown. 1:06:29

DFS Terms Used on This Show

SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 0:04 GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 3:18 Min-CashA min-cash is the smallest prize in a contest, earned by finishing just inside the paid places. In tournaments it is usually a small multiple of the entry fee.Do not judge a tournament slate by how many lineups min-cashed. Track your top finishes, since that is where tournament profit actually comes from.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 5:54 Multi-EntryMulti-entry means entering more than one lineup into the same contest. A contest's entry limit, such as 3, 20 or 150, sets how many lineups one user can submit.Set your total spend for the slate first, then divide it into entries. Multi-entry should spread a fixed budget across more outcomes, not raise how much you put at risk.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 7:57 ProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 17:18 OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 17:18 LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 19:15 Game StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 22:35 Roster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 23:14 Bankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 24:00 Showdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 24:19 ChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 26:53 Bring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 28:29 FadeTo fade a player is to leave him out of your lineups on purpose, usually because you expect him to be popular or you think he is a poor play.Fade with a reason, not a feeling. If you can't say why a popular player will disappoint, you're probably just giving away points.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 32:57 Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 35:14 150-MaxA 150-max DFS contest allows you to submit up to 150 entries into that contest, paying the entry fee for each. Max entering means using every allowed entry, whether the contest limit is 150 or a smaller number.Multiply the entry fee by your planned entry count before building. If you cannot justify additional lineups on their own merits, leave the remaining entries unused.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 36:43 CorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 38:46 OptimizerAn optimizer is software that builds DFS lineups within a site's salary cap and roster rules. It uses projected fantasy points, your settings and, in some tools, simulations to select combinations for a chosen goal.Build a small test batch first. Check which players and combinations repeat, and investigate why before increasing the lineup count or changing settings.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 39:56 Twenty-MaxA twenty-max contest lets each user enter up to 20 lineups. It sits between small-field formats like three-max and the largest 150-entry tournaments.Plan all 20 lineups before building any of them. Decide your stacks and exposure limits first, so the set works as a portfolio rather than 20 separate guesses.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 40:21 Balanced BuildA balanced build spreads salary fairly evenly across a lineup, using mostly mid-priced players instead of a few stars and several minimum-salary players.Go balanced when the slate lacks trustworthy cheap plays. Forcing stars and scrubs without real value just fills your lineup with players who have no role.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 46:23 Mini-StackIn NFL DFS, a mini-stack usually pairs two players from the same game without either team's quarterback. Often a secondary group beside your main quarterback stack, it can pair a running back with an opposing receiver.Before locking a pair, describe how both players reach big scores together. Then ask whether that outcome would make an omitted quarterback or teammate difficult to beat.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 49:48 One-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 49:48 Spending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 57:44

Full Transcript

14,771 words 70 min read 19 sections
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0:04

All systems go. Clear for lift off. What's up, everyone? Tyler Tamboline here, a.k.a. ToeTagginTambo, back for another edition of the Takedown Breakdown here on the Ship It Nation YouTube station. Got my guy Belman here with me this week. Gonna break down all the winning DFS lineups, the perfect lineups, the optimals, looking at the stacks, the top DFS players across the industry playing yesterday for the week five main SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Full explanation ↗ over on DraftKings.

0:57

Got some FanDuel data, I think, today, too, that we can look at. We'll wait and see what's there, but there's gonna be a lot of good stuff We'll be using our partners over at dfsos.com. You can use code ship it there to get fifty percent off. And I think you'll want it once you see what we've got to offer there. But Belman, I'll bring you in, man. Back in the booth. Good to have you back. How you doing, my friend?

1:14

I'm good, man. Happy to be back with you. I know I was on here with Nades last week, so I missed you. Happy to be back on with you this week. And we got a fun, interesting, not so fun, depending on what angle you want to take slate to look at yesterday. As always injuries, just so rampant in the NFL, man, every single week, it feels like it just someone somewhere is getting screwed and it's, it's tough, man, because the injuries just suck.

1:41

Yeah, the injuries hurt for sure. I got crushed in both my mega tickets yesterday. I had Hawkins in one. I really liked this Kyler build that I had. I talked about it on the show yesterday, on the Sunday Shipper show. And I'm going to show that one. I could show them both. It doesn't matter. But I think there's other stuff to get to. But I want to show that build and talk through some strategy.

1:58

I think that's going to be important for how someone thinks about a slate when they only have one or two lineups when others have a bunch. So hopefully that can help. Some people out there. What does the B on the hat stand for? I know it's a Bentley symbol, but do you have any cliche one-liner? What would you say your B stands for? Because I got one for mine. I can tell you that. I mean, it definitely stands for Belman. Clearly, it's a hat.

2:19

Okay, okay. The M stands for mediocre because it was a mediocre week for me. I was hoping it would stand for Milly or something like that, but it was definitely a mediocre week. It was pretty good on FanDuel. It was rough on DraftKings, and the main thing was the two mega tickets, which was nice that I only got them. People saw the screenshots of Discord the other day in baseball. I got them back-to-back weeks on a Wednesday in baseball. We don't have those.

2:41

That many games. It was like a four game slate before the playoffs moved around and whatnot, or less, maybe three games. But getting two tickets for like less than a hundred bucks is nice. Turning them into zero dollars is not so nice when they have that value. So got to work on that. But twelfth, the previous week was, you know, we felt like we were getting closer. We'll see how it goes this week. Any other takeaways from yesterday?

3:02

I mean, obviously the big Detroit, Arizona game, which we're going to show everything off here in a minute, but It, like, wasn't going until it finally was late in the game. It just shows you what could have been. But there was other games on the SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Full explanation ↗. The Green Bay game we were all over. The New England game I talked about yesterday. The Mays, the Mills Makers.

3:18

And there was – the Milly Maker, I believe, was a Drake May, DeMario Douglas winning lineup after all the jokes that I had around that yesterday. It turned out to be true. But any takeaways for you right off the top from yesterday's slate? For me, the biggest takeaway I have from yesterday is just kind of like – You know, putting the Detroit Arizona game aside, like in its own box, a lot of the best plays were just the best plays.

3:41

And that really means that running back a lot of the guys that we and everyone talked about around the industry just ended up being really good plays. You didn't want to get too outside the box, whether it was obviously Gibbs was amazing. He was super pricey, but whether it was Braylon Allen, Jalen Warren, guys he needed. So sometimes the best plays are just that the best plays. Especially at running back, the running back chalk typically comes through.

4:02

I'd be like, well, how did like, even the, you know, like Swift was okay. And he might've got you by the way, Swift didn't have the best game as the other guys did like a Warren type game or anything, but maybe that's what you used on the other side of your, your love Watson Golden stack. And you're like, well, damn, that worked out pretty well. So it's like, you, you end up having that in there.

4:22

So sometimes it's like one side does for the other. And I think that's a topic that, you know, people don't get to enough. Like, well, how did so-and-so get to this guy in their lineup? But it's like, that's what helped them make the stack work on the other side. And that still ends up being what you needed. And then like Nate says, I had eighty percent swift. I know, you know, he talked about his exposures a little bit yesterday and stuff like that.

4:42

It's it's all risk reward.

4:45

Um if you but I guess uh you know I'll just give nades a little feedback here like I saw him just talking about in the Discord like didn't have enough Warren well that's what you got a balance for like I think I had fifty percent of both or something along those lines in my mme stuff but it's like whatever you were taking to get that much swift obviously was pulling from other places but again what you want in your pool is up to you so it's not like there's a right answer I'm just saying I always do look at that when I'm thinking about portfolio exposure.

5:10

And I call it portfolio manipulation is like, you're able to manipulate your portfolio in your favor and you still would have had good numbers on Swift and plenty of exposures or exposure, but you also would have been able to get more of some of the other guys as well. So I wanted to ask you something kind of as another takeaway that I think people like discussions about this.

5:29

And I'm just curious from your standpoint, because I know this is something you talk about a lot and I know you were going to get into it with your Tyler lineup when you're only playing, you know, one or two lineups in a field where guys have twenty.

5:41

When you have a lineup or not even a line of an entry or two entries that are from tickets, especially in like a big contest like this, that would cost, you know, four or five grand to shell out if you didn't have the tickets.

5:54

Do you play those differently than if you entered them without tickets because like you mentioned something and it just has stuck with me about how you know it sucks to get back zero dollars and sure it sucks to get back zero dollars but at the end of the day you plan to win so of course it's gonna happen but when you are able to get into one of those contests for less than a hundred dollars like you said are you more interested in a Min-CashA min-cash is the smallest prize in a contest, earned by finishing just inside the paid places. In tournaments it is usually a small multiple of the entry fee.Do not judge a tournament slate by how many lineups min-cashed. Track your top finishes, since that is where tournament profit actually comes from.Full explanation ↗ than you otherwise would have been yeah it's your perspective here Yeah, great question.

6:18

Actually, I love this one. I think people will like it. No. And I think that's a mistake that most people make. I talk about it a ton over at DFS Mastermind.com. You can find it in all just the basic modules, let alone in within all the courses and the teachings and the coaching and all that. A lot of people win a satellite and they win it in an aggressive way. They're willing to play aggressively. It's usually the opposite. So that's why it's such a good question.

6:40

Most people win a satellite ticket. Nine dollars turns into $555 or let's use what I did. Thirty seven dollars into forty four forty four. I had to beat one hundred and forty people or whatever it was. And maybe it was more. I can't remember. It was seventy five dollars or something. I can't remember the exact math or numbers. But anyway, the point being. When you win the ticket, you play aggressive because it's less than fifty bucks, less than a hundred bucks for both.

7:01

Like it was fine. Right. You're going on. You're going to win the ticket. It's going to be all good. But then they switch up and say, OK, I want to make sure I at least min cash. I'm going to play it safe. Well, that's why I'll show you my Kyler lineup and everything that I did yesterday, because Um, you know, the Detroit Arizona game is just going to be so covered in that tournament that I'm, I'm covered every which way.

7:22

Like I'd be looking for the thread of the finest needle you could ever find. So I played the win and I'll talk about it directly. Great question though. I think that's important when you do win it, play the same way you want it. And again, the way you want it wasn't stupid. You're not just the luckiest Person in the world that played like an idiot. No. You played accordingly, but you probably took on a little bit more risk.

7:40

Let's say it was in baseball and it's a core SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Full explanation ↗ and you faded cores, but got there with the Dodgers or the Yankees somewhere else or the Philips or something that you're like, well, there's still a really good stack. People just couldn't get to them today. And they're like the fifth or sixth best stack. Well, you can think about it like that on the main slate because most people are going to play the core slate.

7:57

And then the top players that have Multi-EntryMulti-entry means entering more than one lineup into the same contest. A contest's entry limit, such as 3, 20 or 150, sets how many lineups one user can submit.Set your total spend for the slate first, then divide it into entries. Multi-entry should spread a fixed budget across more outcomes, not raise how much you put at risk.Full explanation ↗ within their own portfolio manipulation are going to have a giant portion of cores. And then some of those other ones trickling out. And you just want to be in the room where you can be right and be paid more when you are right. Shout out to our guy, Title, who always talks about that. But... Yesterday, that game had pieces that were needed. A bunch of them got there and we'll look at it.

8:18

But I said it on the Mayo show on Friday. I said, it's a week where the biggest tournaments like the mega are going to be won by the best players. Do you know who won the forty four forty four mega yesterday? Lynx, right? No, that's the guy we're going to look at in the twenty dollar Milly Maker. Actually, I can't remember. Maybe it's a different name.

8:37

I'll have it up here in a second, but I'm almost positive that you to cow links came second. Yeah, you to cow one. OK. So just noting it, I mean, literally the best in the world, in my opinion, right now. So I would say, you know, him getting the job done. No surprise. But lots of guys came through. Hey, there's my man, Tyler Hicks. Where's he at right here? Jerm Bernard. He sent me the DM yesterday. Shout out to him.

8:58

And we did talk about on the show and reference him and credit him for that one, too. But the Jermie Bernard learning the playbook. I don't think had anything to do his, his success. I, sorry, I'm saying, I don't think had anything to do with the Wilson injury. He was already being featured. So great call out there. And I think sometimes you got to look at that stuff as well. I know others had talked about it too.

9:16

That was a pretty awesome call on that one. There was a couple of others. You had, you have Warren crushed. Also you were on like, again, again, When Dowdle out, Warren, great. When Mnangai's out, Swift, pretty good. No Brees Hall, still no Adonai Mitchell, Jets short at home, rain, et cetera. You could play that. You could play Braylon Allen. All these spots at running back made sense.

9:37

It was the stacks around them where you could really get different, and we'll look at that in a second just to go through it. Nate said this one too, and I was going to hit on this quickly. I'll get your thoughts, but We talk about this all the time. It's a long-term game. That's takedown, breakdowns, all of it. Some people said this show is more mindset than it is actually digging into results. And so we are going to look at all the results, I promise you guys.

9:58

But they said it's like the Monday motivation or the mastermind Monday or whatever you want to call it where we go through this stuff and just talk about mindset. You know, the English language is funny, Belman, because... Close and close are spelt the exact same. So I often get close, but you got to close. And it's the exact same word, right, on paper. But it's not the exact same result, right? Getting close doesn't pay like when you close. That's the thing.

10:25

And so I do think that's important to remember. But the most important part, in my opinion, and I'll kick it to you on thoughts, is just like – If you're not getting close, that's the problem. It's really hard to close when you're not getting close. And so your process needs to be your own. It needs to be something you can build around, repeatable, have something that strategy that you say, okay, I use the stone at Ship It Nation.

10:46

And then I hand build my lineup with the Stone 2.0 point O in the hand builder, or I go into SaberSim and build my lineups there for MME process. Like if you don't have something to recognize where you can learn from and get better from and act from and change and do all this stuff and adapt, then you're probably not going to be able to get close. And then if you're doing it, you know, long-term like we are, it's week five.

11:08

Like somebody said, like who really cares? It's like, I'm actually happy. I haven't closed anything big yet to start the season. I've got two second places in the FFWC. I got twelfth in the mega Milly. I got close call in the juggernauts on FanDuel. The sign exists for a reason. We move on. Nobody cares. Work harder. We're playing for the whole season, but I've actually never had an opening five weeks where, where I felt like I was more dialed and that close.

11:31

And if everybody follows me and knows me, I talked about it in the off season that I really had a process for dialing in my first six weeks of the season. And it's been working. I just didn't close. I just got close. So do you have any thoughts on that? I mean, obviously we're playing a long game, but I think it's important to recognize that. It's insane.

11:49

For me, it's like the thing that stands out to me is like, you can't close if you don't get close, right? But at the end of the day, all you can do is put yourself in the position to be close to close because we're not the ones out there. Like a lot of this is you can only control what you can control, right?

12:10

And we can control a lot as far as our processes and the work we're putting in and how we're making lineups, et cetera, et cetera. But at the end of the day, it's still human beings playing sports. So a lot of it is always going to be out of our control. And it's important to recognize that. So I think the main point is what you said. You can't close without getting close. So continuing to put yourself in that spot. And I'm with you.

12:35

I haven't had a massive win. It feels like you know, centuries at this point, it's been, you know, you know what I mean? You know how it goes in baseball, by the way. But yes, when you're playing DFS every day, you know how it goes, but I'm close and I'm there and I feel it. And that's frustrating on one hand, but on the other hand, it's like, okay, one of these days it's going to close.

12:56

So I'm with you all the way around that. That's exactly it. I'm teasing. Cause obviously Belman's super humble, but it's like he, he has just, he did just crush recently. And he, you know, we all go through these ups and downs. I think it's important to remember it. It's good for everybody to think about.

13:07

I know yesterday there was somebody in our Discord and, you know, shout out to Sully here who says, by the way, being in a community like the ship at Discord, where you can ask questions, be held accountable for playing bad is crucial for me too. Yeah. You are around people that are playing for real, right? Everybody that's in there.

13:21

A lot of people that are really focused on getting better at DFS, but also, uh, People that are great people like Sully, who said, you know, somebody came in there yesterday and said, I think I'm done, guys. Said, you know, five weeks in, Haven't had the result yet that I wanted. Feels like it's never going to happen type thing basically is what they were saying. And to Sully's point from learning his own way and he's won $50,000 before and, you know, setting aside money for taxes.

13:42

He was helping some with their tax questions that are ship it now. Got their biggest win. $15,000 is how to taxes work. And Sully informed them on that, too. But Sully also offered this certain member. I won't name name just to note. It just happens. People go through these ruts or periods. Sully said, I'll give you a cover your next month. Free of charge and took care of the bill for that member. So we just love seeing stuff like that.

14:03

And that's a good segue to where I was going quickly. Got to update everybody. If you didn't see this, I've harped on it all season long, but at Ship It Nation, we have an internal game called Ship It Games. You can go to shipitgames.com and check it out. And people say, oh, just get to the numbers and the winning lineups. It's like there's no community in the entire DFS space that's giving away any money, let alone $50,000.

14:27

But the craziest part is there's no community communities out there that are making millions in revenue annually that are not giving away even $5,000. And our own guy, Sharks, eighty eight, nineteen, talk about community is giving away five. Over ten percent of his $40,000 win last week where he's giving away forty eight fifty three. He rounded the ship at games pool up to $50,000. Just a phenomenal, phenomenal thing. Just so grateful for a guy like Sharks.

14:53

It is Canadian Thanksgiving, by the way. So something I'm very thankful for. Is this. This guy just absolutely goaded. This is back-to-back years, by the way. Gave us almost $5,000 last year as well. So won't harp on it. Just want to say thank you again. If you go to the website Ship It Nation, go to ShipIt Games at the top or just go to ShipItGames.com. You'll see that every all-access and NFL-only member is eligible. There's fifty Golden ShipIt tickets.

15:18

Fifteen are gone. We just haven't updated the three winners from yesterday yet. It just happened last night, but they'll be updated by this afternoon. So there is still thirty five Golden ship at tickets to give away. And each week you play for them. We don't just give them away. You got to get into a contest and win them. Skill game. And then it's just like an online live final.

15:37

It's online final, not live, but it's like a live final where you're playing for the top ten of the fifty. Fifty people get in and win their way in. The top ten move to the final. And right now it is now $12,000 cash for $6,000 cash For second, $3,000 for third and so on and so forth. Down to twelve hundred for the top ten.

15:55

There are some annual SaberSim and Ship It Nation memberships that go with it as well. So a lot of cool stuff. If you guys want to check it out, go to ShipItNation.com. Go to Ship It Games. You can see all the details there. All right. We are going to get into the review part of the Takedown Breakdown. And we are using our friends over at DFSOS.com. It's just five letters, DFSOS.com. It's your daily fantasy sports operating system.

16:19

You can check it out and see how the best DFS players actually play. It says right here on there, there's a demo. You can check it out. If you just want to buy in and get the pricing, You can go here and right now with code ship it, you can unlock all of the full data for twenty nine a month with code ship it. So it works out to a dollar a day. If I go back for a second to show you guys.

16:40

All the updates. You can see it works alongside all the tools that you already use. It doesn't matter what site you're with. It is not a competitor. It is a complimentary piece. You're taking your own stuff and looking into it. It is the only spot I know of right now that has all of the FanDuel data that just got released on October first.

16:57

You can literally go now and see what the FanDuel data is telling you if you're trying to get better at this game, you might want to do something like that. So that's a key piece. You can look up any DFS player on either site and see exactly how they play, how much they've won for the track tournaments. It's not their lifetime. There is no P&L or something like that. It's not the got you moment, someone.

17:18

It's the fact that you can actually go in and see what a top DFS player is actually up to. And then you can review what actually happened. We're going to use the SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Full explanation ↗ review right now. You can find the top EV contests and actually go and explore the contest lobby right on DraftKings and see it. You can test your own process. You can upload... Our ProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Full explanation ↗, your projections, other sites' projections, or OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, and be able to backtest them in basically two clicks.

17:42

So I would check this out if you haven't already. Unlock the full data. Use code SHIPIT. It's going up to ninety nine dollars a month, but you can lock in twenty nine a month for the entire NFL season. Works out to a dollar a day. You get everything else that I haven't even covered here, but we're going to hop in and use this right now.

17:59

Melman, if you go into the dashboard and you land on your own customized widget here that you can check out, all you do is you go to perfect lineup, make sure it's set up. I think it's already loaded. If not, you can change it to see, but this is an example. We're looking at DraftKings here. I want to see though, does the FanDuel data come up yet? Let me see.

18:21

Uh, it's not updated yet as of last night, I don't think, but it is up to October eight, which is pretty cool. So yeah, just so you guys know, that'll be up here shortly, I'm sure. But if you do look at, um, the NFL one, it is Sunday and then you can go to, where am I at here? Maine. Gosh. Monday morning. I apologize, guys, but just note it. This is crazy. So the optimal lineup was two hundred and eighty four point seven six yesterday.

18:51

It's been $49,000 six hundred. This is way more of a success leaves clues thing. Again, we're not expecting you to get to the optimal lineup. And what does this have? Oh, yeah. But just so you guys see it, Drake May. DeMario Douglas. And then it's got Jalen Warren and Friar Muth. It's got Gibbs, the Forty-Niners D, Isaiah Likely, Malik Nabers, and Christian Watson in it.

19:15

So it's a little bit spread out, but there's cases to be made for all these. I'll let you dissect it first, Matt. What's the first thing that comes to mind here? Yeah, double tight end without either guy like getting a lot of hype from the industry. I mean, certainly Friar Muth was LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. And then Likely, even though the Sims were pushing him like under ten OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, Wasn't a popular play. So obviously guys like McBride and LaPorta and LaPorta was good.

19:42

Just interesting. That's the first thing that jumps out at me. You know, this isn't a lineup that anyone's going to have and just super high scoring week as evidenced by the two eighty five here. I think the key to for me was like the Gibbs factor, right? Not about his points. And, you know, like at $9,800, you got to put that kind of score up. But it's like he's the only guy needed from that entire game.

20:02

And that was the perfect way to do it. Right. And it's not what ends up on the winner. We know that, too. Like there was ways to get there's literally Brissett lineups that won because a lot of people were on them. There's so many of them in the pool. But just to see it in the end, this build. OK. Drake May with Douglas. I, you can go on my ex at ToeTagginTambo.

20:19

There's a video talking about it before the SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Full explanation ↗ started yesterday. It was not that surprising. People use Doubs, but people use Douglas. I know that I think it was John Aguilar was back in the streets yesterday. Fatal error. Won a bunch of tournaments on there yesterday. I believe he just had May with Douglas and I think Bowers and then moved on to the other places in the other games. Congrats to him. Phenomenal job of building that way.

20:39

But when you have a cheap guy that can pair, by the way, it's not like, It was that crazy. Nobody really liked Doubs or expected back-to-back touchdowns or back-to-back two touchdown weeks, I should say. On top of the fact that Matt Collins is still out, there could be some back and forth with the Pats D being beat up and you get that little game flow. So we were on this anyway. But no doubt, best spot of the week. People like this game.

21:02

Christian, they were in on this spot for sure. We talked about the other game, the Giants and the Washington game. And there was lineups out there, by the way, with Winston, Nabers, Likely, and then Antonio Williams. Who didn't have a big game, but look, he fit the spot where pretty much around where Douglas was. I think he was $3,800. You wouldn't have got twenty two points. You would have got eight point eight or whatever he got.

21:26

But it just shows you that some people say, well, how did you get to the it's not about Antonio Williams in that spot. It's about getting you to James Nabers and Likely who really crushed and then allowing you to fit Gibbs and Warren and Braylon Allen and one other stud. Maybe it's Watson because you weren't on love in that lineup or something like that. So just showing you how you can get there, I think is key.

21:48

We still do see the too tight end system pop up. I'm going to keep harping on this. This is a pricing thing that people are, again, are they adapting more than ever? Yes, more people are playing two tight end lineups, and that's key. But the best players are playing even more two tight end lineups than you. And that's something you need to remember and think about. And the reason is, I explained it yesterday, and then Underdog posted it today.

22:11

Brock Bowers is JSN for $2,300 cheaper. And they showed the stat this morning on Underdog, which I don't even know why I still follow that. To be honest, it's so beat up at this point. But just noting it. He has more receiving yards in three games, in three games than some of the top names you'd expect have in four or five games. And that's what I'm trying to showcase. So, oh, but he's $7,000.

22:35

It may seem expensive for the position, but you got to think about the entire SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Full explanation ↗. We had value running backs. We had value wide receivers. We had opportunities to get there. So anything you want to add further on that stuff, Belman, or just the two tight ends, the one piece from Detroit, Arizona, the like how you get to a Game StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗ or a way to make it work. Anything else you want to add?

22:55

No, the big thing for me that stood out is when you mentioned the Antonio Williams and how not only did – like Antonio Williams in your example, like playing him, you were probably playing the really good piece around him, like James, Likely Nabers. So the Antonio Williams subpar game didn't matter as much because you were on such other good plays.

23:14

In the same vein, like because the Detroit-Arizona game was so highly owned, if you like got off of a couple of pieces that were really popular there – it enabled you like a guy like a slot had a zero, but he was still one of the lineups that finished first, second, or third, really high up in the four, in the four, four, four, four had him because of the Roster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗ to your point.

23:41

Yeah, I'm going to go here on screen and do this just to show you guys how easy it is because we're going to pivot now to the slate review stuff. But if you just click up here, like I said earlier, there's a bunch of different features, right? You can check the accuracy of your ProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Full explanation ↗ and OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. You can go in and get the news automatically. I know people are looking for, what are we looking for tonight? DJ Moore, right?

24:00

The latest news was, you know, is questionable or not. Yeah. Monday night's game against the Rams, right? People are waiting on this or whatever it is you want to find out. You can go and find out the news there. We were in perfect lineup. There's a Bankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗ tracker on here that other sites charge thirty bucks a month for alone that you can go in and get right. There's a weather, different factors and things that you can go into.

24:19

But we're going to go up to slate review and start looking into it here. And I want to show something. So I'm on DraftKings, twenty twenty six. I think it's already loaded. It's right here. Yeah. Sunday, October eleventh. You click into it. All this stuff is tracked right here. Here's the twenty dollar Milly Maker. Here's the forty four forty four mega. Here's the three thirty three wildcat. The Showdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗ stuff from last night. It's already all uploaded, ready to go.

24:42

So I mean, it's first thing Monday morning and you want to go find something. So, two hundred and fifty won the twenty dollar Millimaker, right? And we were on two eighty four on the optimal. So you didn't need close to that. But just of note, I saw it here with like Shucky Ducky. Here's the Antonio Williams lineup I was looking at. And again, it cost you. It didn't get you to the top. But if I load up.

25:06

So when I click on Shucky Ducky, just so you guys know, it loads up this screen. I'm just going to run it on two screens so you see it. They actually only I can now get all their details. They had one lineup. So everyone they owned was a hundred percent in that one build. They use the max salary. They scored two thirty four. They had nine unique players. Again, they played one lineup. It's more important when you're looking at somebody with a portfolio.

25:26

But James, Nabers, Likely Williams. And Williams was, it was six point one points. Apologies. Right. But look at like three point nine. Jameis eight point eight Nabers. Eleven point nine. Likely thirty two. Thirty two. Almost thirty. It allows you to fit. No doubt. Warren sounds good. No. Manung guy. Swift sounds pretty good. All right, what else can that get me? All right, the Jets D is in a pretty good spot. Sure, a lot of people are playing them, but that's fine.

25:58

They ended up getting sixteen. And now it's just two V twos, right? They could have played anything like, you know, Jackson Smith and Jigba and Watson. There was plenty of combos you could have played there. But if you're not going to the Detroit-Arizona game, which I think will come up again when I talk about whether or not they meant to do this strategy.

26:16

But if you're kind of having one lineup in a tournament where so many people have one fifty and there's that many rosters, I don't hate ignoring the game altogether by any means. Well, then you might want to pick up on spots that actually have ceilings out there that they can get you. Thirty nine point eight. Twenty five point eight is a bad day for JSN. Thirty two point one. Thirty two point four. We've already seen a couple of touchdowns from Likely in one week, et cetera.

26:42

Watson seen a couple of touchdowns in one week, et cetera. Thirty five point eight picked up some ceilings elsewhere. So this just shows you didn't get all the way to the top, Belman. But that's where Williams can make the rest of the lineup really work.

26:53

And if you built something like this by hand and even screwed up, The last two spots, you might have still ended up with like one hundred eighty or one hundred ninety in some of these higher dollar or even smaller field satellites and tournaments. And then it becomes contest selection could be working your favor. Yeah, and it's kind of one of those SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Full explanation ↗ where the scores you needed, but you really needed. And Warren was owned, but even he wasn't like crazy ChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗.

27:18

Watson, people were on him, especially in green base tax, but he had the highest score for a wide out. I think only Gibbs beat him, and he was sub-ten OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. So... When you're playing all the good plays like that, especially when they're not super chalky, the Antonio Williams six doesn't kill you to your point. Maybe you don't get all the way to the top, but because of the pieces you're putting around him. Yeah.

27:45

And the other thing I took away from just everything you said is the You know, people playing a lot of people playing one fifty in a contest like this. So if you're not playing one fifty, maybe you get away from that game altogether. I kind of took the opposite approach in how I played yesterday, but I certainly agree with you. Like in any contest. And it goes back to what you talked about with the big Milly Maker.

28:08

If there are people that are able to play three, four, five, six, seven, eight times, ten times as many lineups as you are. And there's one obvious spot. Maybe your best avenue to getting all the way to the top is not playing that spot. A hundred percent with you. Yeah. And so we'll get into some other stuff here, but I think that's just key to note. And again, it's, it's somebody played one lineup. They got this outcome, et cetera.

28:29

It's way more about the conceptual conceptualizing the lineup to say, okay, how does an Antonio, what are you talking about? This failure, Antonio Williams and how he helped it's it's Antonio Williams was the Bring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗ for Winston Nabers. Like, right. You also played him over a Trey Harris who was even worse. So like there's tons of ways to look at it. Yeah, exactly that.

28:53

So it's like, again, to try and make it perfect, don't know, but they used it to get to something else. And I don't mind that also. It's like crazy, but some of these guys didn't even come in. Oh, and you mentioned it like Warren didn't actually end up getting that much ownership. And again, people say, well, you're being results oriented. It must be nice when he puts up thirty nine point eight points. No. Like Dowdle was out. We knew that before.

29:12

And Rowan Wilson was a popular piece at wide receiver, which was also a build style of using cheap wide receivers, which I'll show you from my own process, which can only be done before the tournament starts beforehand and show you how I talk about that. But, Warren was a guy that you almost are leveraging. Not quite.

29:31

Cause I like Wilson was off the charts, but you're, you're leveraging in a way of you're not using the popular chalk, cheap wide receiver piece of Wilson on that Steelers team. You're getting to Warren and other people are on different running backs around him that you're pivoting against.

29:46

And then also you could be leveraging by getting into a different Roster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗ where you're building with multiple running backs of different the, you know, the $6,000 range or whatever, while not playing a running back in the flex like this Person did. So whether they meant to or not, some pretty good strategy and strategic stuff built into that lineup, but go ahead. Anything else you want to add there? If not, I'm gonna look at some of these other notes. No, let's keep looking at them.

30:10

Just, uh, Sully always has good stuff here. So I think what really threw me off was gente being in on Sunday morning, kind of threw me for a loop build wise. Um, I would say like, the preparation versus planning, not going to review. I know it's, we get new viewers each week. And like, I've talked about this a ton, but being prepared versus being, you know, versus planning to play, everybody's planning to play, but being prepared.

30:35

The gentee news didn't matter unless he was out to me as much. I'm not going to say completely because I have some more thoughts on it in a minute when I get to my lineup stuff. But what I'm saying is not like we were going to be playing gentee and it's, you know, reality. What really mattered was if Mike Washington Jr. At $4,200 was the lead back and in the Well, now your Detroit-Arizona stacks got even easier to build.

30:59

So I think that's how you got to be prepared for it. If Jenty's in, it just means we're not playing Mike Washington Jr. Go ahead. No, the only counter I would have to that is I feel like all week the lead up was that Jeanty wasn't going to play. So I would almost reverse it. He's not even going to be out too. We already prepared him. They called up a running back, and he was limited, and then he MP'd. So that's what you'd expect for sure.

31:24

So wouldn't you kind of what you're saying? It doesn't even matter. It's semantics, but be the reverse. Like you would, you're, you're would be prepared for him to play, not to be out. Cause you're planning for him to be out. You know what I mean? Which is why I would understand that would mess with people more than a normal guy is in when you'd expect them to be out. That was an extra added wrinkle. But also again, I, you know, I can document it on the stuff.

31:48

Luckily I record my entire journey here. And so on the Mayo show, I talked about, I said, people are, are going to make mistakes on this SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Full explanation ↗ because of this one Detroit, Arizona game. And then this added an extra wrinkle. And it's why I predicted the best players would win. Because like I'm saying on Saturday night, this thought is based around, like we kind of expect now it's like he could play. So we're starting to think about what's what's that's what I'm being prepared.

32:10

So on Saturday night, you should be looking at that and saying, Hey, If Gentee's in, what does it mean? If Gentee's out, what does it mean? We know what it means if he's out. But again, there's penthouse process. There's levels to it on the out. Meaning if he's out, the first thought that everybody knows and the automatic one is out. Mike Washington Jr. Is $4,200. That's the easy part. That's the one that everybody gets to.

32:35

That's why people are literally building lineups with that in on Saturday night. Myself included. I was building for sets of lineups. Think about what's it look like with these in. But when you take it to the next level and look at what does that mean? What does Mike Washington starting mean? Meaning gentee out. What does gentee out mean? Well, now it gets even easier to over stack the Detroit Arizona game.

32:57

So it means when I'm playing in a tournament tomorrow, which we are, we all are. I don't know which ones everybody's in, but just noting it. When I'm playing in a tournament tomorrow, I might be more Likely to actually FadeTo fade a player is to leave him out of your lineups on purpose, usually because you expect him to be popular or you think he is a poor play.Fade with a reason, not a feeling. If you can't say why a popular player will disappoint, you're probably just giving away points.Full explanation ↗ that spot because now I'm expecting there to be even more over stacks of that game. So if I only have one lineup against it, I'm probably less Likely to get it done in that spot. Now, again, it depends on how you want to play.

33:24

And your style, like what Belman asked me off the top, that's why this is a perfect topic for today that we're kind of just walking ourselves into of when you only have two lineups and how do you want to play it? I still don't want to play that spot because even with Mike Washington, not getting into those lineups, I still thought there was way too many of those lineups that had me covered.

33:40

I also was on leverage lane documented again saying, I don't want Michael Wilson at OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. I had it on Parker Washington the week before. Like I just don't want on twelve game, eleven game, thirteen game slates of any kind, I don't want the fifty percent owned wide receiver. You know what I mean? Like there's just so, so many options and there's wide receiver ones that are on shitty teams, but there's still wide receiver ones and they still get the job done.

34:06

So it's not results oriented. Again, I said it on Saturday morning. It's not like I'm making it up now. It's just my way I play. And so hopefully that helps some there. But on the flip side of it, if Gentee was in, it's now back to almost, you know, at the end of the day, it's kind of like saying, okay, great. Now I don't have to worry about the Mike Washington stuff.

34:27

And I know that my pool of running backs is Gibbs, is Swift, Braylon Allen, Warren, whatever, whatever. I'm going to use Jonathan Taylor in the Pittsburgh stacks or whatever to speed up the games. Like you kind of just go back to the normal pool there. So it's almost like a false positive where people like use it In a bad way, I'm just saying it almost becomes like a crutch for like, well, this threw me off.

34:53

You could have figured it out Saturday night and been able to apply it based on that factor. It's not saying it's going to be second nature for everybody, but just know that you should be thinking ahead of these things and building for it. And at the end of the day, it was just a little preview for NBA DFS in a couple of weeks anyways, right? Exactly. And no, definitely not saying I avoid the fifty percent Wilson when we do leverage Lane K.

35:14

Rich, just if you're not familiar. So, you know, we're talking about like our our biggest lineup or like our Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ stuff, right? Like, you know, like if I'm playing a. Um, hi doll. I'll show you my lineups in a second. We'll get to them anyway, but I'm saying, I was just saying, I didn't, I didn't want that stack or that build in my mega lineups, for example, when, when we're looking at it.

35:33

So I'll be able to show that off when we get there, but just of note, I got to shout this out too. It was pretty cool yesterday. Um, hoop. Finished in tenth, our guy Hoop over at Chippin Nation here. We got Hebrew Cheetah, Rio, also over at Chippin Nation. And our guy Title, Zed Trivet is Zach, and Titletown. And they were all inside the top seventeen with some shots down the stretch. It was a Jacobs Brissett, a Drake May, and a Jacobs Brissett lineup.

36:00

They all had something within them that hurt them a little bit. But three guys in the top seventeen of the tournament, and they're all part of Chippin Nation. Matter of fact, Hoop Title and myself will be back in an hour and a half to record the Showdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗ Shippers show for tonight, as we usually are. So if you're just joining us or never heard of it, you can check us out there.

36:18

But anything you want to talk about there, if not, I want to go into, I think it's like Island War that got the job done. But this was a stochastic logo up top that had the $50,000 win. And I'll go into their lineup so we can see, let you talk about it. Yeah, I saw that seven figs got passed, was in first for a while. Yeah. I actually played a little differently myself yesterday.

36:43

I 150-MaxA 150-max DFS contest allows you to submit up to 150 entries into that contest, paying the entry fee for each. Max entering means using every allowed entry, whether the contest limit is 150 or a smaller number.Multiply the entry fee by your planned entry count before building. If you cannot justify additional lineups on their own merits, leave the remaining entries unused.Full explanation ↗ the twenty dollar just because of the slate itself was a weird one, a one that we probably won't see for the rest of the year, just with that condensed ownership. And it was a spot I loved. So I struggled with like contest selection yesterday, which I normally don't at all because I normally play similar stuff, but I wanted to switch it up yesterday because of just how much of an outlier slate it was. And yes, someone mentioned it before.

37:14

The Detroit-Arizona game had a lot of points, went over the total, but the only player you needed from that game was Gibbs. Mm-hmm. It ended up being the Gibbs slate for sure. Like I said, you could have got away with it otherwise, right? But that was the main setup. I'm going to bring my stuff up after, but let's go into this one first. So the winner of the twenty dollar Milly Maker had one hundred fifty lineups, fifty six of them cashed.

37:38

You can see their average score was one forty three. They were spending most of their salary as most do. They had ninety eight unique players for those that have never used something like this. This is why it's so cool. You can literally see like, OK, a quarterback. What were their exposures? Well, they had Jacobs Brissett at fifty two percent of their lineups on a OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ of twenty eight point six for that contest for a delta of plus twenty three percent.

38:03

And he put up twenty six point three points. You can literally look by position.

38:07

Can change it around completely you can sort it by something different like it's just it's all there for you to see what they were on but again you don't usually get the the ability to go in in other games we talk about all the time you can't see all the poker players hands if you're a professional poker player if you're a professional golfer and you're out on the PGA tour, you can probably say what's up to Scott Scheffler.

38:27

You might be able to hang out with him. You can watch some of the shots on tape, but you're probably not getting any insight beyond that to be able to find out what his practice and training said. What does his portfolio look like? All these things. So this was the winning lineup though. We'll go to it here and I'll let you break it down. It was a Drake May, Pop Douglas lineup. Talked about that on the show yesterday. You see the common theme.

38:46

Here's the three running backs, Warren, Swift, Gibbs, Trey Harris with only three point six points. Didn't matter. Double tight end or sorry, not double tight end, Likely at tight end. And then Jets D and Christian Watson. So had the had to have it scores mixed in there with no real crazy CorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Full explanation ↗. But they did land on spots that you would expect. I'll get into my thoughts more. I'll let you take it away first. But $50,000 spent the full money. Two hundred and fifty points.

39:12

Point zero six to get the job done and ship the Mills. Congrats to you for winning the winning the first prize, a million dollars. Yeah, I mean, honestly, way closer to the optimal than I would have thought because of how wonky the optimal was. That said, whenever you get a tournament with this many entries, it's never surprising when you get a lineup that's close to the optimal. What's the difference? I can't remember. It was Freiermuth and someone over Swift and Trey Harris.

39:36

And we talked about Swift earlier. He wasn't bad. He just wasn't amazing. You could win with him, especially at his ownership. You just weren't winning because of him. Trey Harris was also not good, but Ham and I talked about that on the lead up show. You didn't need us. Now, obviously you are never playing if you only got three and a half points, but just a salary play.

39:56

And it goes back to what we talked about with Antonio Williams and TeSlaa, you know, it was a pricing play and it's about the pieces he got around Trey Harris. So honestly, really similar to the optimal, which we talked about earlier and congrats to him. Yeah, it's a nice line. I'm going to just break it down further because, again, I know this is the other thing people always say, like, yeah, well, it got into the OptimizerAn optimizer is software that builds DFS lineups within a site's salary cap and roster rules. It uses projected fantasy points, your settings and, in some tools, simulations to select combinations for a chosen goal.Build a small test batch first. Check which players and combinations repeat, and investigate why before increasing the lineup count or changing settings.Full explanation ↗ or whatever it might be.

40:21

Like, you know, it's an optimized line. It's not like they hand built it. I get it. But I'm saying we're a lot of people watching this, to be honest, and I know from experience of doing this for a few years now, a lot of people are playing like five lineups or less, twenty maps. Someone just talked about K. Rich was back in the mix and said, hey, I've been locking Bowers in Twenty-MaxA twenty-max contest lets each user enter up to 20 lineups. It sits between small-field formats like three-max and the largest 150-entry tournaments.Plan all 20 lineups before building any of them. Decide your stacks and exposure limits first, so the set works as a portfolio rather than 20 separate guesses.Full explanation ↗. I'll die on that. Maybe they're playing other lineups, too.

40:39

But I'm just saying a lot of people are playing twenty or less lineups. A lot of people are hand building. A lot of people love the hand builder at. I think that's why the gentee news messed up so many people. I think a lot of people hand built lineups with Washington expecting him to be the guy and then had to change everything. Right. And so like, you know, we have it now at Ship It Nation with the Stone 2.0 point. Oh, right.

41:00

You could come right in here and say, OK, I want to start with, you know, I'm just going to reverse engineer. But like, I want to start with running backs. And who's the good, like, what are the good spots? Well, my nun guy is out. Dowdle is out. And I think Gibbs is in the best spot on the SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Full explanation ↗. And I'm probably not going to go to that lineup or that game because of, you know, some of my lineups or whatever.

41:22

Like, I'm just going back to it here now. Okay. So like injury, injury, and I'm just covering this game off. All right. Now, you look at some of the other stuff. Trey Harris, DeMario Douglas. How do they get to it? I don't know. I'm saying, but Trey Harris, we know. The Douglas one, I'll get to in a second. But just noting this, if you go down to... I think this is sort of by price. So where is Trey?

41:45

Worst case, I can just type it in here, but Trey Harris, right? You've got Quentin Johnston out, right? You've got injury stuff going on there and you can say, okay, I'm going to plug that in. And then it's kind of like just the stack that they put around it. But I think the most interesting thing with like, Likely going against the commander's defense who was popular. Um, you've got Watson, you got a piece of that love game, but you're not getting to everybody there.

42:11

He's a, he's a Bring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗ for the Swift stuff, right? So you got Watson in there. And then you go to tight end and you've got Likely in there. It's not like all, it's not like these guys weren't popping. Like we had high, we had high optimal rate and LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ on Isaiah Likely. And then defense. I think the Jets were one of the most popular on the slate, right?

42:34

If we just sort by OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, yeah, they were the most popular and for good reason, probably they're also our most optimal. So let's just say you plug them in. Well, I think this is the difference. Some people start with quarterback and wide receiver. This is out of an OptimizerAn optimizer is software that builds DFS lineups within a site's salary cap and roster rules. It uses projected fantasy points, your settings and, in some tools, simulations to select combinations for a chosen goal.Build a small test batch first. Check which players and combinations repeat, and investigate why before increasing the lineup count or changing settings.Full explanation ↗, so I get it, but I'm just noting it. If you were hand building, I think a lot of people do start with a quarterback and a receiver and then see what they can fit.

42:57

Why would you not work backwards here? Because now imagine you've got this money left and you're just looking at what can I fit? And you're looking at these quarterbacks like love would make sense because you got Watson in there and it leaves me $4,100 and then you can sort my salary and go down and say, OK, what does that get me? Do I want any of these guys? Maybe not, right? I already got Harris in there. Don't see some guys that I want.

43:20

Okay, I'm not going to do love in this lineup. All right. Who are some other quarterbacks? I like, well, I heard Tambo talk about Drake May. Okay, I'm going to go find him in here and see. Let's sort by salary again. I'm going to go to Drake May. Oh, that only leaves me $3,500. Hmm. I wonder if there's anybody at $3,500. I don't think so, though. Oh, wait. The receiver that fits with him.

43:41

That is still a positive leverage and a decent ProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Full explanation ↗ for down here. There's nobody in sight with a nine point one and a fifteen ceiling. And I heard Tambo make up a stupid rap about them on the show yesterday about double D's and Pop Douglas going off together. All right. I'm going to try that one. It's like, if you work backwards from the news of clearly Warren in a pretty good spot, clearly Swift is in a good spot. Clearly Gibbs is in a good spot.

44:07

Trey Harris looks to be the wide receiver one there today, depending on how news shakes out. Okay. And then you start working around that. Sometimes you can just plug in the pieces and find your way there. I'm not saying you would, but it's more of just a process of elimination. And also talking about a strategy where I think a lot of people say, okay, I heard I want to play Drake May. If I'm going Drake May, that means Bowers and Doubs.

44:29

All right. Now what running backs fit around him? Oh, shoot. Now I can't get to Gibbs. Maybe I'll have to leave him out, et cetera, et cetera. You wouldn't get to that type of lineup though in that construction. So I just think that's important to think about for the hand builders out there. Anything else you want to add on this winning lineup or portfolio or anything else? No, all really good points.

44:46

The only thing I'll add is like, it goes back to what I talked about earlier. When you play the best plays, it gives you more wiggle room. Like Swift was fine. He wasn't even as good as Braylon Allen, who was cheaper than him. It was also popular, but because the rest of the lineup was so good, it didn't even matter. So yeah.

45:05

I mean, like you said, when you put the pieces together, when you like pull them off the puzzle, you can see how the puzzle was put together totally with you. Yeah. So here's my forty four forty four lineup that I wanted to go over from yesterday. This is I did not cash. It was horrible, but it's just process. So you guys can hear how I think about this stuff. It only put up one hundred and thirty eight points.

45:25

We got the news that Jefferson was in and Addison was out. And I was already looking for a spot outside of my Drake May lineup, which is up above. Did a little bit better, but ended up having the Trey Harris injury and didn't have anything get there. But I was full fading Detroit, Arizona. In my two lineups for this, right? I talked about it, and the why, I've already explained it all.

45:48

I went through that here, but just noting it, the thing I loved about the Kyler Murray lineup, and I said at the end of the show yesterday with Hoop and Title, what got me excited is Not only was I already wanting to fade the Detroit-Arizona game and try and figure out the magic thread-the-needle lineup that would get me to the top of this when I only had two entries, but I also knew that because, again, going back to understanding the gentee news, because of the gentee news, I also knew that now that people didn't have Mike Washington Jr., this is the part I forgot to bring up earlier, where would they find their value?

46:23

It would all be at wide receivers. Kendrick Bourne, TeSlaa, Harris... Antonio Williams, multiples though, right? Multiples that they were going to be using. And so I was looking for a way to get a more Balanced BuildA balanced build spreads salary fairly evenly across a lineup, using mostly mid-priced players instead of a few stars and several minimum-salary players.Go balanced when the slate lacks trustworthy cheap plays. Forcing stars and scrubs without real value just fills your lineup with players who have no role.Full explanation ↗. And you know what incorporated the most of that? And this thing came out really nice for me pre-lock and even post-lock, but it just didn't finish up post-SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Full explanation ↗ very well. But I went with the over stack. So- Yeah, I love this lineup. I saw this yesterday.

46:51

This lineup is sexy and- The Hawkins injury sucks, but this lineup was put together really well. Sorry. That happened early. So it hurt my feelings right out of the gates. But what I liked is even with Harris as the one, again, I thought he was the best. He was in the winning Milly lineup, whether you needed him or not. It's not about the result. That is results. Or just noting, but it just, obviously it can get there.

47:10

And it wasn't really where I was looking to pick up my ceilings from in this spot, but I was looking to get, you know, some twenty fives to thirties. And if you go back and just think about it, can you get twenty five to thirty? Yeah. Could have been a lot better. Eighteen. Can you get twenty five to thirty? Yeah, you can get almost forty. I'll go more into in a second. You know, could have been better. Twenty one point six.

47:29

Horrible for Olave. But can he get you twenty five to thirty? He absolutely can. Has multiple times. Jefferson. Kenny. Obviously he can. You know, Trey Harris. Maybe twenty was probably a cap. Maybe fifteen, twenty. But what are we having for you, SJ? Let's go back and look. Go back to my wide receiver stuff. Go up to...

47:48

But it's also like when you're fading the Detroit-Arizona game, you can play more guys like Trey Harris because you want to play the best plays at that point. That's the other thing I'm saying. You nailed it. Yes, Trey Harris is making, he's instead of TeSlaa in some spots for a few hundred bucks more, instead of Bourne in some spots, he's making those lineups work. He's not in these types of lineups.

48:07

So notice I also don't care about The ownerships here, like, twenty, twenty-six, twenty-eight, thirty-two, but seven, five, sixteen for a stud-wide receiver, four on Hawkins, six on the Chargers going against Denver in the afternoon. Like, I was fine with all this, but just the way my stuff shook out, but just noting it, Kyler, Jefferson, Hawkins, Jones in a dome, right? And you got then you got Olave on the other side, the balanced wide receivers.

48:38

Then you still get Warren, Allen, two home running backs in good spots that I liked. You got the Chargers, D Harris. There's no CorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Full explanation ↗ there. Just that's where I landed. But just to show it, I wanted to line up like this going in because it didn't have Detroit, Arizona, and it didn't have all of the Roster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗ pieces the other ones did.

48:59

Not many people were playing the balanced running backs and then doing it in a way that could really work and get a back and forth going. I liked that spot for that game yesterday. And if you go back to, I'm just going to do one more here. I don't think I have it up yet, so I'll bring it up on the screen in a second. If I can find it here. And then I'll show my other lineup just because, just to give another...

49:25

Pointer, but don't have it here. So I'll go to the other lineup. But anyways, just, I liked the spot for Minnesota and New Orleans and I liked it better. Once we got the Addison news and the fact that I could find a way to play Olave and Jefferson in a back and forth without just playing those two could have been something else could end up being a, a love lineup for sure. But the Drake may spot was the other one that I liked.

49:48

I did have the may Bowers Doubs set up. I went with Swift, Emmanuel Wilson. I had the Wilson Kittle double tight end, right? Still pretty cheap. Got low OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ on him to cross into this Mini-StackIn NFL DFS, a mini-stack usually pairs two players from the same game without either team's quarterback. Often a secondary group beside your main quarterback stack, it can pair a running back with an opposing receiver.Before locking a pair, describe how both players reach big scores together. Then ask whether that outcome would make an omitted quarterback or teammate difficult to beat.Full explanation ↗. I played the popular Jets D, a One-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗ that not many were getting to another stud wide receiver.

50:09

But you see in these builds, I just didn't want the cheap, chalk outside of Harris who I played twice and I was fine with that but you know going back I wouldn't change much here just didn't get the outcomes that I was looking for I liked this lineup better in the end but this was my other build with Drake May in it did not get to Douglas as much as I liked him as well and he I had a ton of May in my portfolio yesterday with Douglas and stuff yeah injuries suck as we talked about at the beginning and I'm with you like when you're fading the obvious best spot um you know, you want to play the best plays around that.

50:45

I guess my only question to you is like, and this is a reason I played different yesterday and I maxed the twenty dollar and maxed the one fifty five entry instead of playing my normal stuff, because I like the Detroit game so much. The stuff I wanted to play, I wanted to max the contest because I want to be over over the field on that game.

51:04

My question to you is and not even being results oriented when you go into a spot like that. And I think it was a total outlier. We're not going to see many more spots like that on the year. But going in, knowing you have two lineups there, knowing you don't want to play anything from that game, why do you not want to play anything from that game? Why couldn't you play one piece from that game or two pieces? Just curious. You can.

51:31

That's the thing. The answer is you can. For me, it would have been Gibbs and McBride. That's what I kept telling me. Or Gibbs and the Lions defense. Sure. But they didn't fit the Kyler build I like the most. You weren't, like, opposed to playing it. No, no, no. For sure. And I talked about that on Leverage Lane. I said, if I'm going to be playing that game... I actually entertained it...

51:51

I'll show it actually in a second because we ended up using it for share a ship for shipping games yesterday. I'll go into the wildcat. I want to give you to cow, uh, more flowers, uh, you as usual, but just, you know, noting, I want to look at his portfolio. People think this is, this is probably one of the coolest ways that you can use DFSOS.com to be able to break it down and see what they do with a full portfolio, right?

52:09

He played the max nine, nine, nine lineups and got to the top with one of them. But, I will say, if I was playing Brissett lineups yesterday, which were fine, especially once the number of those lineups was at least still going to be held in check some because no Mike Washington, like I said, it wasn't going to balloon up. But just noting it, I would say that I still was talking about it on Leverage Lane that I didn't want McBride and Wilson in them.

52:35

I wanted to play like Brissett, you know, Bourne and then Amun-Ra or Gibbs, keep it skinny and hope that other stuff gets there and then play like Bowers instead of most people have McBride in their Brissett lineups and I'll take Bowers to hopefully beat him. And he got there with that insane catch at the end. I'm just saying, it's like there was, I'm looking for ways to build unique against it.

52:57

So I could have went there, But once I had the Kyler lineup, I wasn't going there. And the whole point of the Drake May lineup was to play Bowers and not McBride. And then if I needed something else, like I looked at that lineup, like could I get to Gibbs and Detroit Lions defense? And could I have? I'm sure there was a way because I had Ja'Marr Chase and the Jets, but I would have to move other pieces around. It just didn't fall in.

53:20

And something I talk about a lot too, like... On any given week, there's a lot of good plays. Like, yeah, the Detroit-Arizona game stood out because the total was so high, but that doesn't mean you weren't happy with the guys that you played. Not that you made some rule where you couldn't play any of the Detroit-Arizona game or you could only play one. You just made lineups without that OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ that you liked. Makes a lot of sense.

53:45

Yeah, and I want to show you one more thing because we got time. We're just going to be out of here in the next five or ten minutes. But I would say just to go through it quickly, I want to show one more thing on that lineup just so I think I have it right here so it won't take long. But if I go back to this tab and then we'll go to you to next.

54:00

There was a two V two here that I entertained. It just didn't. I didn't fully love it for whatever reason, but I'll give you what it is. And usually I like it, but I was fine. I really liked having something super unique for the afternoon with like Wilson and Kittle. And I liked having the Jamar as just something that nobody was getting to yesterday because it was kind of late. I looked at Burrow versions. They weren't good. I looked at Malik Willis versions.

54:25

They weren't good. And I wasn't going to override where I was at with May. So I did opt to take it. So I don't love it. But the swap was, just so you know, it was Jamar, two hundred bucks down to Amun-Ra. And in hindsight, I like it better, even though it didn't work out anyway. But just thinking about Roster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗, I would have had a Detroit One-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗ with a PPR guy that can kind of just catch a bunch of... He could have been the one-off guy.

54:48

That's all you need. So that's one thing I was thinking about. And it would have got me to moving... And Wilson down to the flex and turning Kittle with that two hundred dollars from $5,200 up to $5,400 Braylon Allen paired with the defense as a way to do it that way. Obviously, I think it scored almost the same, maybe slightly more. It was I was looking to just get a little bit more unique, but it could have worked.

55:14

So to your point, could I have played a guy? Yes. And that's how I would have got to it. But I just kind of got too hung up on that. And I like this line of better. It did check out for me. So I went with it. But. Let's look at you. Those swaps. Like I just got it. Like, you know, I, the two for twos, when you're playing limited lineup, that stuff is always so hard.

55:32

And my wife, who I'm super close with, she's not a sports fan. Doesn't play DFS, but has been with me for a long time. So understands this stuff. And. Even though no one cares, work harder. She cares. So I bitch to her sometimes and her go-to line. And it sounds so easy and cliche. She's like, well, if you knew the future, you would have played the better line. You know what I mean? And like, that's just the truth.

55:54

That's why when I talk about a good, good point, a good call out there and shut up to your wife or you'll care. You're not even talking about it in that regard, but I wanted to say that to the universe. I love it. Cause I said the same thing last year, last show you and I did was two weeks ago.

56:06

I might put that clip out later today, but it was the one where a lot of people resonated with it, where it's like, sometimes I say it, but the sign, nobody cares, work harder. It's like, I still do care. It's just, it's like, the point is you can bitch about it all you want, but you got to move on. Right. The longer you let it linger, the worse it's going to be another mindset piece for you, but it really is.

56:24

And so, um, on that note though, it's like, I, that's why I'm only talking about it from a pre-SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Full explanation ↗ process. I looked at that. I had plenty of time. I had like ten minutes up to lock, and that was what I was finalizing of do I want this or do I want that, and everything pointed me to wanting the version that I landed on and hoping to get it right from that standpoint, especially if I was already wanting to fade Detroit, Arizona.

56:45

So I'm good with it. Let's look at the portfolio for Uticao and just going at it from that perspective. Here's the biggest thing that stands out to me right away. Even with nineteen lineups, someone that didn't want to go the reset route, right? This is, again, like I talk about it, but Malik Willis, Tyson Bajan, Bo Nix, you know, his exposures, right? That you're looking at. Jordan Love, all positive deltas. Stroud, Winston, the two quarterbacks he's under on, Goff and Brissett.

57:18

And look, it's play it to each their own. You could have got there with a Brissett lineup. I think it almost did, but it's just the point being when you look at it, this is the lineup that got it done. So it was a James Winston lineup, two hundred and twenty one points. Winston Likely. No Bring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗. Oh, no. Williams back to the Williams situation again. So there you go. There's your trio. You get your Mini-StackIn NFL DFS, a mini-stack usually pairs two players from the same game without either team's quarterback. Often a secondary group beside your main quarterback stack, it can pair a running back with an opposing receiver.Before locking a pair, describe how both players reach big scores together. Then ask whether that outcome would make an omitted quarterback or teammate difficult to beat.Full explanation ↗ of Swift and Watson.

57:44

Uh, Luther Burton, even in there as a second piece to that game. So you got three points there. No doubt. I'll play Warren one piece of the Detroit Arizona game. You're not on golf or Brissett. What would help slow it down some and just be the one piece that you need. Possibly Gibbs makes sense. Lands on the Vikings D where most were Spending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗ or down.

58:01

And also they were two hundred dollars more than Washington, who a lot of people were landing on yesterday, especially on FanDuel. I think Washington was like sixty OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ or something in the juggernaut. Um, and played Likely with Winston against it.

58:14

So, um, you can't land, you're not Likely to land on the Washington D actually the only time you might be in a, in a quarterback lineup is with Winston because the, the, you can play Winston and the defense against him, but not in this lineup, not normal.

58:27

So this is the lineup, your thoughts on this one, but I think just targeted a couple of really good spots on the SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Full explanation ↗ that weren't Detroit, Arizona, while still making sure he took care of how that game would play out as well. Yeah, so to your original, like when you mentioned the exposures and, you know, the Brissett-Goff, like certainly Goff was close to getting there and Brissett wasn't bad himself.

58:47

But no matter what, whenever you get that much ownership in a spot in any sport in DFS, it's always easier to get to the top playing different avenues. So this is a good example of it. Even though that game got close, other spots were better. And this is a spot that was better and was really LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ because so much ownership flocked to the other spot. So yeah, I mean, he's a goat just really, really well done put together.

59:12

And it goes back to the Antonio Williams point where, you know, first off, it didn't even matter because of Trey Harris, but even if it had mattered because of the plays he played around Antonio Williams, it wouldn't have mattered anyways. So yeah, just really good lineup. And just ceiling hunting. Again, you go back to it again. Remember that guys, you're looking for ceiling in these tournaments are just so top heavy. Yeah. Second nature to people.

59:34

But I would say this is like, you know, you end up with six point one and eight point nine here, but it really doesn't matter because thirty, forty, seventeen could have been better. Thirty five, though. Thirty two. Eleven for a defense. It's like it's not that great. But you could Minnesota could have smashed. They're a really good defense going against the Saints. Luther Burden could have got ten more points. Swift could have got ten more points.

59:59

It just allowed for so much more, and only Williams was really the guy who, by the way, was still in a good spot of his own, but he didn't just play him as a One-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗. He built around him to then allow to fit in the ceilings. He covered the Detroit-Arizona game. He got to a unique D that was two hundred bucks more than the popular one his stack was against, and more than the Jets and all.

1:00:20

He targeting this Green Bay-Chicago game from how you could target it. If you're not getting to Love or to Bagent, and by the way, he was on Bagent and Love in the other, that's the other thing you got to notice. Look at his exposures. Love, eleven percent. Bajent, sixteen percent. I know it's not that many lineups because you're looking at nineteen total, but my point being, it's not just where you are, it's where you're not.

1:00:46

When he's in a Winston lineup, he's covering off the other spots. Right? He's got those other pieces to those other games. He's got the Chicago Green Bay game that he's higher on, clearly. Right? Nine and a half delta, four and a half delta. Those are built into the Winston lineup. So it's not just magic. This is why I always talk about when I'm building like a portfolio, Belman, of saying, okay... People start with their Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗. I don't though.

1:01:11

I always tell, I've been telling this for years now. I build out my portfolio, get $40,000 feet view of what looks good and what I like and then work backwards. And so then I know what to account for. OK, if I really like this stack or I really like these running backs, what stacks fit around them the best? Or if I like these stacks, what running backs fit with them? What accounts for what?

1:01:33

If I like these four quarterbacks and shit, that's only two games on this SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Full explanation ↗ because it's four quarterbacks from the same two games. Well, then what does that mean? Well, it means when I'm building a lineup with my fourth or fifth best quarterback, I probably want to incorporate the other games because I want those. I still really like those games and those pieces. How do I fit them in and around that? Well, look at this one.

1:01:56

DeAndre Swift, Watson, and Burden all fit in around the three-man Game StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗. I didn't even look, but I'm imagining it's up there, but we'll see. Could be wrong. Jameer Gibbs, eighty-four percent. Huge delta. Warren, fifty-eight percent. Huge delta. Well, guess who ended up in his lineup? Gibbs, Warren, you know what I mean? Like it's not magic or rocket science. It's it's that's, what's going to look, who's his highest on defense, the Vikings.

1:02:25

And then people say like, Oh, of course it's like, but it's just, it's what he was on. So I would say it's like, it's not who you play. It's how you play them. And people will say, well, it is who he played. Because look at all those guys he played. It's whoever he played the most of is what ended up in the winning lineups. Right. But it's also how he played them. So many people say, I'm comfortable doing a Winston-Likely Williams stack.

1:02:46

But then they start trying to figure out who to put around it. It might be right under your nose and right there in front of you in your portfolio being able to say, well, who else do I like? All right. Well, I'm not on – let's use like for this one because the back and forth. I am in on Bagent and Love. I like them both.

1:03:05

Well, if you like Love or you like Bagent, you probably like the pieces that go with them. All right. Maybe try plugging some of those in around the rest of your lineup when you're building it, and that could work. Or I really am interested in these running backs because the injury spots – I think Jalen Warren good because Dowdle out. I think Swift is good because Menungai's out. All right, should probably plug them in. Oh, wait, I'm forgetting something.

1:03:26

There's a game on the slate with a fifty six and a half point total or whatever it was for Detroit, Arizona. Not really accounting for that, but you know how I am going to account for it. I like Jameer Gibbs and I think he's the guy that's going to do it. So let me play Gibbs. Oh, it lands me on my favorite defense. Sweet. I'm in. Like it's not saying we would get to it ourselves because we didn't, but that's why we do this show.

1:03:46

That's why we're trying to learn from this to get better because it can exist. And that thought process can help you. Maybe you come up short and make a bad, you don't come quite as close and you get one eighties, but one eighties could still be great for a certain tournament that you're playing in, depending on the contest selection, which is a topic for another day.

1:04:02

But it's also just more about having a process, having a process, process, process, whatever you call it, to get to something that is your own, where you can say, Hey, I know that I've got a process now to be able to move to this type of build if I'm building Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗. I know how to start from here and work backwards, et cetera. A lot of people don't do that. And then they wonder how they just, I just landed on random shit.

1:04:25

It kind of just filled my lineup out. It looked good. All right. Well, you could have had something that got you to a little bit better spot, not being results oriented. This is his portfolio of nineteen lineups in one lineup. That's the takeaway for me. Yeah, I'm with you. And for me, just to kind of tie it all in a ribbon, when we talk about how it's easier to get to the top of tournaments when you play lower-owned stuff...

1:04:53

Lower own plays, lower own Roster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗, whatever, however you want to put it. It all falls into when we talk about like the Antonio Williams play doesn't matter as much because you have an under ten percent on Christian Watson. If Christian Watson in this lineup were Amon Ross St. Brown or Trey McBride, and they're the ones that had thirty five, then that Antonio Williams six would hurt a lot more.

1:05:16

So at the end of the day, we're playing an OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ game and it's important to remember that always. A hundred percent, man. I think it's just, again, expect nothing less really sharp build overall. Again, you see it CorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Full explanation ↗ throughout when he goes to the Malik washing the Malik squared lineup over here with Ja'Marr Chase. I told you I entertained something like this, but look what he gets to fit in around it, right? He still, he gets to fit in the Gibbs McBride.

1:05:41

We talked about that on leverage lane. What was the most Likely way to get a piece of that game where it's just run, run, run the clock. Catch nine balls and fall on it. Maybe catch a touchdown or three of Quentin Tarantino himself doesn't come through and get two of them. I know it's not how you say his name, but basically the same guy. Play the popular defense. He got two. Here's the Mini-StackIn NFL DFS, a mini-stack usually pairs two players from the same game without either team's quarterback. Often a secondary group beside your main quarterback stack, it can pair a running back with an opposing receiver.Before locking a pair, describe how both players reach big scores together. Then ask whether that outcome would make an omitted quarterback or teammate difficult to beat.Full explanation ↗. He's in on Winston. So why not play Williams and Likely?

1:06:05

Again, not on the commander's D. So you got Likely against it while you're on the Jets for two hundred bucks less. Still popular. Who cares? But one hundred ninety two. Not good enough to win, but good enough to come. Twelve and nine. Like some of these guys didn't do anything really. They just kind of gave you mediocre outputs. Twelve. Nineteen from a Ja'Marr Chase. Twenty-one. This is like really balanced scoring. It just didn't get there. But just to show it, that's the same that's in his portfolio.

1:06:29

Usually don't do a bunch of season-long stuff, but Tyler... This one's pretty straightforward. If you got Josh Allen, you're in good shape already, but you would start Shakir because you want to maximize that. You want to hope that Shakir catches the touchdown. You get double the points, right? You're getting the Shakir points mixed with the Tyler. But yeah, Nate's brought up a good point. If you're not, listen, it's not for everybody.

1:06:52

I know, but I do think it's for everybody that's watching this. So it's not just a sales pitch for our promo that you have code SHIPIT over at DFSOS. I just don't know where else you would be able to go and get basically the best player in the world's Keep that in mind. It's literally a dollar a day. Go to DFSOS.com. Use code SHIPIT to get in. Any final thoughts from you before we get out of here today, Matt? Anything else you want to bring up?

1:07:29

I know we always do a bit of a Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ thing that we didn't have time today to get to all of it. But I do think a lot of really good stuff on this one that we broke down for them. Yeah, always a really fun show. Happy to be on here with you. And yeah, I think we broke it down pretty well. So I got nothing more to add.

1:07:46

Yeah fun stuff with you we'll be back again next Monday the same time less than an hour we'll be here so make sure you're subscribed to the channel hoop title and myself coming off their top finishes in the million maker yesterday they'll be on live with me as we break down the Showdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗ slate for tonight if you guys want to get it on the action over at shipitnation.com all the promos are there you get into ship at games have yourself you'll be a part of our community be a part of the fun and get into the game ship at games.com all the deals are down below you can do All access, content only, just NFL, with SaberSim, without.

1:08:18

They're all applicable for Ship It Games at the top. That's going to do it for this week, guys. For Belman and for myself, ToeTagginTambo, good luck in your contest tonight. Let's ship it!

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Jump to a Game

  1. 0:00Intro
  2. 2:59Week 5 Takeaways and Running Back Chalk
  3. 5:25Playing to Win with Satellite Tickets
  4. 9:43Trusting Your Process Through Close Calls
  5. 14:05Ship It Games Reaches $50,000
  6. 16:10Reviewing Slates with DFSOS
  7. 17:59Breaking Down the DraftKings Perfect Lineup
  8. 21:48Why Double Tight End Builds Keep Working
  9. 24:55How Cheap Stack Pieces Unlock Ceiling
  10. 30:13Preparing for Injury News and Ownership Shifts
  11. 37:32Breaking Down the Millionaire Maker Winner
  12. 41:00Building Backward from Your Best Plays
  13. 45:14Tambo’s Kyler Murray Build and Detroit vs Arizona Fade
  14. 49:45Tambo’s Drake Maye Double Tight End Build
  15. 51:04Full Game Fades vs Taking One Piece
  16. 54:00Evaluating Two-vs-Two Lineup Decisions
  17. 56:47Youdacao’s Winning Lineup and Portfolio Breakdown
  18. 1:01:04Using Your Portfolio to Build a Single Entry
  19. 1:07:25Final Thoughts

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