Cowboys vs Packers NFL DFS Showdown | SNF Week 6 Sunday Sweatdown | Picks, Plays & Process

Fifty three and a half point favorites game here in Green Bay. Let me look out the window real quick here. Oh, yeah. Sunny, a little brisk, about fifty four degrees as we sit right now. I'm going to be kind of the same temperatures or so around kickoff. There is some wind. There is some gust out there, but nothing too crazy.

I mean, anytime you're seeing a fifty three and a half point total and the projected winds and stuff, Vegas isn't really worried about that too much. Overall um but I think there's a pretty I think it's a pretty good one here so what's your kind of broad slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate overview as we jump in and talk about Dallas on the road in Green Bay here um to round up this Sunday night Yeah, it should be a good game.

I know you're going to be heavily interested in it or got new ones or got title. Yeah, it's the Micah Parsons Bowl, but with no Micah tonight. We need to get Micah back. The games are just better when Micah Parsons is in. Cowboys, it's also the revenge of the Dez Bryant. Was it a catch game too? So I'm looking forward to this. Cowboys coming off a brutal, brutal loss at the hands of a running back disguised himself as a quarterback the other night.

And you know, I expect them to come back and play. Well, we saw, we saw the Packers last week against the Bears, just manhandle them physically running them over. You're too little out there. Just doing it. Watson catching those passes, showing that bling in his mouth, man, it was a heck of a game by them, but I think it's going to be a competitive game. I know you're not gonna like to hear this Nate's, but I actually liked the Cowboys tonight.

They're plus one and a half. They got some really good skill guys. They got Javonte, um, And then on the other side, though, the Packers skill guys, you know where the ball's going. And you know the Cowboys defense, Overshawn is out still. Joey Porter, I think, is in. Correct me if I'm wrong, Nades. But should be a back-and-forth game, higher scoring. But I do lean the Cowboys tonight. We'll talk about it as we get into it. Yeah, we can definitely talk about it.

I'll tell you one thing. I do like points in this game, so I do like it from a fantasy aspect. Regardless of who you like in the game, obviously I'm going to side with the with the Packers just at home. And to be honest, I don't think either team defenseDefense/Special Teams (DST)Defense/Special Teams (DST) is a roster selection representing one NFL team's combined defense and special teams, rather than an individual player. It earns fantasy points through sacks, takeaways, defensive and return touchdowns, and other plays, with adjustments for points allowed.Compare what a DST upgrade costs elsewhere in your lineup. If paying more forces you off an important offensive role, check whether a cheaper defense offers a credible path through sacks and turnovers.Read the full definition of Defense/Special Teams is really good, so I expect a lot of points and. I really don't think Dallas defense is good at all. I do like what I saw last week.

Not to put so much stake into one week, but the Packers did go out and sign a bunch of vets for the offensive line last week. We kind of saw. Jordan Love have a little bit more time to throw, which has been a big issue with this offense. And if Jordan Love doesn't have time to throw, it's just everything falls to shambles, right?

So I'm interested to see what that does going forward here in terms of how it can improve this offense from an efficiency standpoint. Doesn't help our defense. Our defense is still pretty trash right now, especially with Michael Parsons out, even with the emergence of Lucas Van Ness. I don't think Xavier McKinney is going to get two interceptions to fall on his lap because he doesn't have Tyson Badgett throwing the football here. He's got Dak Prescott. So overall, it should be a pretty good game.

Yeah, Overshawn is still out. Drew Shelton, Offensive tackle is going to be out as well for Dallas. Durant is a cornerback. He's out. Savion Williams is questionable. That is actually kind of pretty big news there because, again, Packers, it's kind of up in the air. Bo Melton is going to be kind of the wide receiver three projected wise right now.

But if Savion's in, that does muddy the waters there a little bit as well for those kind of ancillary wide receivers outside of Christian Watson and Matthews Golden. Green Bay's got St. Just is out as well. Josh Jacobs is going to be back next week. So he's still out this game. So we're going to be talking about guys like Pierce Strong, Marshall Lloyd in a pretty good running matchup here. So that's kind of the broad slate overview overall.

Let's jump here and talk on these captains here. From an ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership standpoint, it's going to kind of get spread, which you would tend to believe because there's so many good skill position guys on this slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. You got both quarterbacks who project really well and show positive leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage here on the stone in Dak and Jordan Love, Javonte and Marshall Lloyd. Javonte is going to get right around ten percent or so up top.

Lamb and Pickens, it's going to be more so favored in the quarterbacks. Nice throw, Josh Allen, you clown. It's going to be more shifted in the favor of CeeDee Lamb here in terms of ownership. And then on the Packers, you got Watson and Golden both going to be right around that ten percent mark. In terms of tiers, it's the quarterbacks is the highest, and then a drop down to CeeDee Lamb.

And then it's Javonte, Pickens, Watts, and Golden kind of all put them in a hat, pick them out. There's not really...

One super high compared to the other so overall I think captain it's pretty tough to narrow it down here because there is I mean I could see giovante I could see dac I could see Jordan Love lamb Pickens both um I can see Watson Golden um so I mean right there when you look at those guys you're talking seven captains just between those before you even Take a look at a guy like Tucker Kraft up top, right?

So said a lot to throw it over to you here. But what do you like in terms of the captain positionShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Read the full definition of Showdown? Both these teams are very pass happy so far throughout the course of the season, about a seven to almost an eighty twenty split from both sides here. So you should expect pass catchers and quarterbacks to kind of do their thing here. Yeah, I got, I got four captains.

I'm really looking at, and they're probably the same people that everybody else is, but just to get a little bit different. I like Javonte Williams up top tonight. I mean, you talked about it. I mean, they are pass heavy. So you're getting a discount off CD lamb off deck and Javonte, the third highest captain at $14,400. I like the, I like that to get different. We've seen This Packers team at times this season have been susceptible to the run.

Javonte handled every running back's carry last week, but one, and that one was late in the game. So I like Javonte Williams. He is the cheapest of the big three between Lamb, Dak, and himself. He's at $14,400. So I like him. Also, like if I'm going to the Packers, I like Jordan Love. $14,100. We saw Jordan Love doing Jordan Love things last week, just spreading that ball around.

Throwing it deep to Watson, throwing it deep and short to Golden late in the game. Both, I think, were over a hundred yards. He likes to spread that ball around. Jordan Love does. He also has a tight end. That's very good. He throws to his back. So I like Jordan Love. He would be my favorite Packers captain. And then Lamb and Prescott, you know, nothing needs to be said about them. We know that Lamb has had twenty some odd targets in a game this season.

And he has he has he paid us off. Right. He did very well. Nades, one thing I didn't check to see, though, he left kind of that game last week. I know it was on Thursday early. Is he on the is he on the injury reportInjury NewsInjury news is information about a player's health that can change whether they compete, how much they play or how effectively they perform. In DFS, it also affects opportunities for teammates and opponents.Before an uncertain player's game locks, identify an alternative you can afford at each affected position. Check whether making that change would require another player whose game starts earlier.Read the full definition of Injury News, C.D. Lamb? I do not believe so. Let me just pull up our partner here. DFS OS and go to the news here. Type in CD lamb. And let's do. Yeah, so CD lamb right here.

Impact a double dose of Williams might do the trick in Green Bay. Yeah. So I mean, I don't see Yeah, thigh not listed on injury report for week six. Yeah. So two days ago, he's good to go. So I don't Yeah, I don't I don't see an issue there with with lamb. So Go ahead and kind of summarize. I know you talked about four captains here, but go ahead and summarize your kind of overall captain thoughts in general. Yeah, that would be my last two.

C.D. Because of his upside and his targets, and then Dak, right? Dak has tons of weapons. Ferguson had a fumble late. Javonte, he can dump it off too. Flournoy as well that he has. I don't like Flournoy as a captain, but it's Williams is my favorite cowboy followed by Love, and then it would be Dak and C.D. Would kind of be three A, three B for me. Yeah, no, I like that. I do.

I'm going to start with Jordan Love on top and Dak Prescott. I like both quarterbacks here. Again, I expect heavy doses of the offense. I mean, Cowboys, yeah, you can obviously have the CD Lamb explosion game, but they're still the tight ends, right? Span forward gets involved. All these other guys get, get involved there. So you can see a scenario where Dak does spread it out. Javonte is involved. CD lamb pickings. Obviously you got Flournoy who's, who's involved a lot.

And then, like I said, the tight, tight ends Turpin gets some love too. So I can see a scenario where both these quarterbacks spread it out. There is a little bit of rushing upside with a guy like Jordan Love who can use his legs a little bit. So for me, the top tier captains overall are, I'm going to start with both quarterbacks up there. I like both quarterbacks a lot. Javonte is probably my second favorite guy behind the quarterbacks.

The reason being is historically running backs have kind of gashed this team up. Javonte is really kind of getting, I mean, majority of this work for this offense in terms of the backfield. I mean, he's messing around. He's competing with Tyler Goodson, who, yeah, I mean, gets in there a little bit, but it's really – Javonte Williams gets the lion's share. He's $9,600 in the flex up top. He's $14,400. So much cheaper than guys like C.D. Lamb and the quarterbacks.

He's right in right there. And kind of the same price point is Jordan Love. So those are my three favorite captains up there. And then I would drop over to Matthews Golden. The reason being is. Everyone has just seen CeeDee Lamb and Watson massive games. Watson coming off the thirty five point game last time. Matthew Golden is still heavily involved. They love this dude. He's got big play potential. And I mean, I just like his upside for the buy low spot on this.

So He's going to be lower owned than Watson, then Lamb, then Javonte, then both the quarterbacks. So from a leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage captain standpoint, I think Matthews Gold is my favorite overall leverage guy on the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. But I think you could really play – Seven or eight of these captains like I don't even think a Marshall Lloyd is gross as that is. I don't think that's the worst play in the world. This Cowboys rushing defense has been absolutely atrocious.

I know the Packers that have been super pass heavy due to the offensive line, but if there is a scenario, if we see more of kind of what we saw last week, right where Packers actually have. Showing to have a serviceable offense with the new offensive line improvements. MarShawn Lloyd, I mean, the dude's going to be five percent. He's $11,100.

So get you on a different roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Read the full definition of Roster Construction to kind of avoid you having to punt to the Brandon Aubrey, the Tucker Crafts, the the cheap guys down in the flags to mess around with Bull Melton, Savion Williams, the floor noise of the world, because you can just get out a little different roster construction there. So any thoughts on kind of those?

I'll call them tier three captain type guys, the Marshall Lloyd, the Tucker Crafts, any of the any of the ancillary guys outside of that kind of the big the big main six. Yeah, Tucker Kraft always interests me. He's six-eight in the flex, $10,200 as the captain. That's paying a good price.

Nades, I don't know if you remember, and I know it was several years ago and it doesn't mean much now, but when we had the Sunday night game with George Kittle and you nailed that against this Cowboys team and he went off. So I like Tucker Kraft. Like if I was going – you know, somewhere there's Bowers. If I was going somewhere outside of outside of one of the ones that I mentioned earlier, It's tough.

I mean, Watson and Golden, like I'm not chasing that Watson game at $13,500, two touchdowns. He did look very well. He's running a bunch of the routes. So Tucker Kraft would be up there for me. And then like if you want to get into like a like a shootout type of game, like game scriptGame ScriptGame script is how a game's score and time remaining influence its pace, play choices and player opportunities. In football, teams protecting a lead often run more, while teams chasing a deficit often pass more.Before locking a lineup, ask who keeps playing if your expected script reverses. Check passing-down roles and backup rotations instead of assuming a team's leading rusher handles every situation.Read the full definition of Game Script where it's like one of those forty forty games that someone put in the chat. Ryan Flournoy really came on late last game. He would be six six.

He had four for ninety against the against the Buccaneers in a trailing great game script. So if you wanted to get crazy, Flournoy and Kraft would kind of be my two. Yeah, no, I don't mind that. I do think Marshall Lloyd's kind of interesting just from. He kind of took a bigger role in the rushing room last week. Obviously, he got the two touchdowns there, but I could see a scenario there. I mean, this dude's going to be unowned.

He's going to be he's looking at around thirty percent total ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. It is a really good matchup here. It kind of leverages all of the Packers stuff that Jordan loves, the Watson, the Golden and all of the Cowboys. Right. Guys like Javonte, Dak. Lamb, Pickens, all going to be higher owned than a guy like Marshall Lloyd. How do those guys feel, especially on the Packers side? Well, Marshall Lloyd gets the two touchdowns. He's $11,100.

And then you can still get the PPR guys like the Lambs, like the crafts, like the Gervantes and the quarterbacks and the flex and just do it that way. Play some kickers. So he would be kind of my contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian large field kind of unowned captain that I can see a path to the top of lineups with. Jumping over to flex here, let's talk quarterbacks. Obviously, Jordan Love, Dak Prescott in this game, you have to have interest in both.

I'm seeing about fifty percent ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership in terms of flex for both of these guys. Their optimal rates come in a little bit higher than that. So we're seeing some positive leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage for both of them. Hard to really get away from them. If I had to pick one, I'd side with Jordan Love just because he's a thousand dollars cheaper. And I think he can use his legs a little bit more.

And there's just not as much as Michael Mayer just continues to move his way towards Halloween here and dwarf Bowers. But what's your take in terms of the flex? Start with the quarterbacks and then we'll jump over and talk running backs. Yeah, I mean, I like both quarterbacks. I obviously like them in the captain, so I'm going to like them down here.

I think in this game, Nades, we're not going to see – we're not going to see a seven-team to four-team game. We're going to see a thirty-one, twenty-seven type game. So I think you're going to need the quarterbacks. They do like to chuck it. You alluded to it earlier. Packers, super pass heavy with what they got back there. So give me both quarterbacks.

I like what you said, though, that – that uh love is cheaper um so like if you were if you were quote-unquote fading one it would be more Dak for me over Jordan Love but if you're playing I would say one to ten teams uh let's say five to ten teams I mean there wouldn't be many if any that I'm leaving leaving one of these quarterbacks on I just think they're going to be too involved in this contest flinging that ball around to their wide receivers tight ends and running backs to to to avoid Yeah, no, definitely see your points there.

Take us to the running back position here. Obviously, Javonte leads the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate in terms of the running back room. MarShawn Lloyd not far behind. You get a $2,200 savings off of Javonte down to Marshall Lloyd. I do like that discount there just with the way I see it is all the skill positions for the Cowboys, Dak, Javonte, Lamb and Pickens are all expensive. They all can't get there, in my opinion.

So if I'm picking one, if you're picking one to kind of get under on, is it Javonte? What does that shake up for you? He's projected right around thirty five percent ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership in terms of the flex. He does have the best touchdown prop on the slate at minus two fourteen to score sixty eight and a half rushing prop. So he does have the props. His projectionProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections is pretty good. His ownership is held in check. Same thing with Marshall Lloyd there.

So those two do look pretty good to me. Not really messing with these ancillary guys, but the one guy I did want to call out before I throw it over to you is pure strong plus two thirty five to score. MarShawn Lloyd we've seen have fumble issues, them not want to give him the full allotment. It's kind of a stretch. I mean, plus two thirty five is a pretty decent prop at that price point.

But then you look at his rushing prop, sixty and a half. You're kind of looking at a at a one kind of inside the five right touchdown. Is that enough at $3,000? Probably. But how do you see the the backfield here? Yeah, a ton of interest in – a ton of interest in Javonte. For me, I like him in all formats, captain in the flex. And then I think I'm a little bit lower on Marshall Lloyd.

I mean, Marshall Lloyd was huge in the best ball streets after the Jacobs news broke. This is his last game to be quote-unquote featured. $7,400, that's a big boy price tag he's going to have to pay off. And he just doesn't play enough for me. He's only a two-down back, Pierce Strong – He's going to play a lot on third down.

So Pierce Strong would be a good play for me at only $3,000, especially on DraftKings, where I think, you know, he's more Likely to catch passes than Marshall Lloyd. So give me some Pierce Strong. If you're if you're doing a game scriptGame ScriptGame script is how a game's score and time remaining influence its pace, play choices and player opportunities. In football, teams protecting a lead often run more, while teams chasing a deficit often pass more.Before locking a lineup, ask who keeps playing if your expected script reverses. Check passing-down roles and backup rotations instead of assuming a team's leading rusher handles every situation.Read the full definition of Game Script of where the you know, the Cowboys lead and they're having to do a lot of two minutes. Hurry-up type stuff, I think that's more Pierce Strong strong suit than Marshall Lloyd.

And so at $3,000 bucks, I like Strong better than Lloyd on this slate when it comes to running backs. Not getting to Caleb Johnson. He's in the doghouse. He had a fumble in Tampa two weeks ago and then didn't really even touch the field until the fourth quarter when the game was out of commission last week. So no Caleb Johnson. And it's only Javonte as a running back.

For the Cowboys and then Strong and then Lloyd would be kind of distant for me if I'm building, you know, an eleventh-plus team.

Yeah, no, I definitely like – I do like Marshall Lloyd a little bit more than you because I do think as we approach lock, I know there's a price discount and a difference between Lloyd and Strong, but I think their ownership kind of – middles to be honest I think we kind of see similar ownership amongst the two so it's kind of a spend upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up to be contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian it's his last spot is kind of the featured back um overall with Jacobs coming back the the news Jacobs will be back next week um so I do like him quite a bit um but strong would be my third guy not messing with lukey Goodson um and definitely no caleb Johnson um with strong three hundred

Dollars or four hundred dollars cheaper there um for me myself a look at the wide receiver position here obviously cd lamb leads the charge here $10,800 big boy price point uh flex ownership gonna be kind of right there the same as Christian Watson eighteen hundred dollar difference there in terms of price George Pickens um commanded right around thirty percent ownership in terms of the flex he's $8,800 eight hundred dollars more than Golden So how do you see this wide receiver room in general?

Obviously, you've got the four-headed monster in Lamb, Watson, Pickens, and Golden, but Flournoy is heavily involved. Bo Melton is expected to slot in to the wide receiver three role here, and Packers do run some three wide receiver sets. Jordan Love, if he slings it like he did last week, he can spread it around. Bo Melton just . I think he's actually a solid football player in general.

And then any of these other cheap guys, guys like Turpin, who gets some gadget plays to him, obviously gets the return, the double dip there when we talk about defense. Sturdivant, Mingo, Savion Williams, if he's active, is two hundred dollars. So how do you see this wide receiver? Yeah, I was my favorite is going to be CD. He's he's number one for me. And then if you're talking tournaments.

I like Ryan Flournoy at $4,400 bucks kind of be my my guy would stack in there, you know, with or without that, probably more Likely with that, like an attack captain type team just based on the price at $4,400. I'll take my I'll take my thousand dollar savings with Matthews Golden over Watson, although Watson kind of the big play guy. So so Golden would be my favorite Packers. And then, yeah, I liked what you said about Bo Melton.

He's WR number three. But Nades, J. Michael Sturdivant called like a forty five yard bomb last week. I know you saw it. It got called back. It got called back. But man, like at a thousand dollars, like if he hits another home run like that, you know, you're cooking there. So. I might have a little interest in J. Michael, like in a Milly type thing, like the fifteen dollar Milly. And then let me touch on I don't like Turpin or Mingo, anybody like that.

And then Pickens like Pickens to me is like I'm like. I'm fading, you know, Pickens right and single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry, he would be the one he would be the one that I'm fading would be George Pickens. So kind of like you got to take a stand somewhere. It's Pickens and Lloyd for me. Would be the two like high price guys that I'm fading.

When I say I'm fading, like if I'm doing single, single entry three maxThree-MaxA three-max contest lets each user enter up to three lineups. It is a small step up from single-entry.Give each of your three lineups a clear role. Make sure they differ in at least one major decision, like the main stack or the most expensive player.Read the full definition of Three-Max, you know, I'm not going to have any of George Pickens in that type of format. No, I like that. For Pickens, I'll start with the Pickens. I think I'd rather play Pickens up top than in the flex because I think if it's a Pickens game, you probably see the two long touchdowns where CeeDee Lamb can play more in the flex.

I know the price point difference there and obviously CeeDee Lamb can have the ceilingCeilingCeiling is the high end of a player's or lineup's realistic range of fantasy scores. It describes a big performance that could happen when things go well, not the expected score or an absolute maximum.Describe what must happen for each player to have a huge game. Then check whether those conditions help or hurt the other players in your lineup.Read the full definition of Ceiling games. That's not what I'm saying here. But if Pickens is really doing his thing, I kind of see it as more of the long plays down the field, the quick kind of scores that can get there. He can get the hundred yard bonus, have a touchdown or two, and then you can find him up top.

Whereas his kind of median outcomes, I don't know if he's really going to be there in the flex at this price point at $8,800 over guys like Golden. We're going to obviously talk about the kickers and the deeps. You got the tight ends as well that are cheaper than him.

And he's eight hundred dollars more than Matthews Golden, who's running just about every route and getting almost as many targets as Christian Watson is in a spot where you expect the Packers to continue and have to throw the ball as well. So especially for you, where you do like the Cowboys to win the game. From the Packers side, I do side. Golden is my favorite receiver overall from the Packers side. Watson is obviously good as well.

Those guys basically split the target shareTarget ShareTarget share is the percentage of a team's targets (passes thrown toward an intended receiver) that go to one player. A receiver who sees 8 of his team's 32 targets has a 25 percent target share.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Read the full definition of Target Share last week. Golden had seven targets. Watson had eight targets. They both ran similar routes. But in terms of the other guys running routes on this team, at least last week, Sturdivant did only run two routes. But when he was out there, he got targeted. So that's kind of a deep, large field stuff. I would much rather play Bo Melton at similar ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. I just don't think Bo Melton is going to get played that much.

He's going to be right around ten percent, which isn't it isn't. Nothing to really worry about too much there. And he's, again, running the third most routes from this wide receiver room on this team overall. Don't really want to mess with these other guys. Sturdivant would be, actually, to be honest, Ham, I'd probably just rather take a shot at two hundred dollar Savion Williams and his big Guardian cap than mess with Sturdivant at a thousand dollars. Like, what's your thought on that?

If Savion is indeed active? Yeah, I was going to say, where has Savion been? Has he been on the IR? I haven't seen him. You don't see much of him, but where has he been all season? Has he been inactive or on the IR? If you're talking, you're on mute. Yeah, he was on IR with an ankle injury, but they did activate him. Nineteen hours ago, so.

And they designated him for a return and placed Jonathan Ford and Hargrave and Skyy Moore all on IR. So, I mean, if Savion is in there, I do expect him to get routes. I mean, it probably sides more in the aspect of Bo Melton, but Savion's been with this team before. They've shown when they've gotten thin at wide receiver to use this guy.

So I do have some interest in him over a guy like Sturdivant, who you're kind of competing for about ten percent of the snaps and hoping that when he's out there in his – I don't know, two to two to five snaps or something like that, that, that he's going to get a look there. So any, any additional points there from, from the wide receiver? Yeah. Yeah. Nothing, nothing else there. Other than the CD and Florida would be my, my top two in tournaments.

Yeah, I like Flournoy quite a bit. Right around fifteen percent ownership at $4,400. He's going to be kind of held in check. He has to be because he's in in that tight end and kicker range that. I mean, people would much rather just play. Actually, I don't know if people would much rather play Tracy Mack. We'll talk about that when we get to the kickers and defenses. But let's jump over the tight end position here.

In terms of the tight end position, you got a pretty crowded field here. Obviously, it's headlined between Ferguson and Tucker Kraft, but Janu, Schoonmaker, Spanford, all three of those guys do get mixed in. Janu at . At five percent ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership as a valueValueValue is the fantasy production you expect from a player relative to his salary. A value play offers more production or upside than his price suggests, whether he is cheap or expensive.Identify why the salary looks wrong: workload, matchup, scoring ability or a pricing error. Then check whether that reason still holds when you submit your lineup.Read the full definition of Value play on this slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate, I think he's kind of interesting. He does get routes for this offense. You look at last week, Johnny ran the fifth most routes on the team behind Melton, Kraft, Golden and Watson. So sixteen hundred.

He didn't get a target last week, but I do think like this where you can kind of. Feast over the middle of field here to to the against the Cowboys. I think both the Tucker and Johnny are pretty interesting. Those two are over Ferguson for me. I'm just not a big Ferguson guy here.

I think he's always over owned in this offense more so I play him more so in like that captain team something like that and just hope it's not a big CD game. It's not a big pickings game. It's kind of spread out enough and that's where Ferguson plays in but. What do you see here from the tight end position? Yeah, Tucker Kraft's just so expensive tonight. It's going to be tough to get to him.

What is he, $6,000 eight hundred bucks ownership wise? Yeah, showing twenty some odd percent. I mean, give me Jake Ferguson. Nate's just as like a contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian option, like half the ownership of craft and you save money. He did have a fumble late in the game or went out, you know, had a ball carry him off his hands or something. But yeah, I would side more Ferguson or. Or if you wanted to get crazy in deep field, it would be Schoonmaker.

Didn't Schoonmaker have some catches late last week? Let me look and see. Spanford, no thank you. No, he only had one catch, but I don't like Schoonmaker. I'll probably be more lower on the tight ends in general, and I would have Ferguson over Kraft for me today. Yeah, I mean both the span forward and shooting maker are running like three and six routes. I mean, so you're kind of the issue is is when they're out there they're getting targeted so.

Scoot maker ran three routes last week, got targeted on one of the three span. Ford ran six routes, got targeted on two of the three. So, I mean, you're kind of just hoping to strike lightning in a bottle. I'd just rather play John, to be honest, than both of them. So I do think John, who's overall probably points per dollar wise, my favorite guy, especially because I like Jordan Love captain teams.

And he fits well in those kind of builds where if Jordan Love is the optimal captain, you're kind of banking on Watson not having a thirty five point game, Golden not having a thirty point game. And it's just kind of they all kind of middle. Right. And it's spread out. So that's that's since it's this is where I think John is a pretty interesting play overall. Ferguson.

Does run I mean last week he ran the second most routes on this team um behind only George Pickens um and he was right there with with a guy like Florida so I think Ferguson is interesting and actually I mean now after looking at it and kind of doing a deep dive here Ferguson's gonna be what I mean probably could be almost half the ownership of a guy like Tucker Kraft at $6,800.

And you're getting a twelve hundred dollar discount there. So I think any team that you have, Tucker Kraft, you could easily just drop down to a guy like Jake Ferguson, leave the leave the twelve hundred dollars. And I mean, it's a one game Sample. You're going to get less dupesDuplicate LineupsDuplicate lineups are entries in the same DFS contest with identical player selections and scoring assignments, including any multiplier positions. In standard cash-prize tournaments, these entries tie and share the combined prizes for the places they occupy.Use the actual prize table to calculate your payout in a first-place tie with two, five or ten entries. Compare those outcomes before choosing between similarly strong builds.Read the full definition of Duplicate Lineups. It's going to be more contrarian. So I do think after looking at it, it's probably Ferguson and Johnny are my two favorite tight ends.

Those are kind of the three guys I'm looking at overall. Jumping to special teams here, kickers and defenses here. Obviously, we've got to talk about Brandon Aubrey. Anytime Brandon Aubrey on the slate, this dude does have a real ceiling. Ownership is going to be held in check on all four of these positions here. You're probably going to see sub-twenty percent owned on all four of these guys because of the total.

I've done some backtesting and actually have seen that the higher the total is, the kickers actually tend to – Find their way into the optimal lineup a lot off a lot more often because there's a lot more scoring opportunities, right? So I like both kickers a ton here. $4,800 and $5,200 sub twenty percent ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership on both of them. They're right there in the range with those tight ends who are going to be much more popular. I think Ferguson and.

Crafts can both be higher owned than both the kickers here. Definitely than Trey Smack for sure. Both these guys have big legs. I know Smack had some issues a couple weeks ago with some kicking accuracy. But prior to that, this dude was nailing it from sixty. So I love the kickers here. Defenses I don't love as much. But again, high scoring games.

You can see, and both these teams are very pass-heavy, so at $4,000, $3,600, I think they're a little too pricey for me overall, but how do you see the special teams here? Yeah, those kickers are expensive, Nades. I mean, obviously Aubrey can hit it from anywhere on the field, but they're super expensive, so they're going to have to do something in order to pay off. It's risky.

It's risky fading Aubrey, and then, yeah, Smack had a good college career in Florida. Now he's had a decent career so far. Here with the Packers, I mean, once again, I get what you're saying. High-scoring games are going to be down there in the red zone area more times than not. Hopefully they stall out. I get it, but if I'm building, I would like not to get kickers just because they are so expensive, but certainly understand Aubrey and Smack both squarely and play on the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate.

Yeah, I do think I like the kickers quite a bit here just because I don't think people land there in that range. I think they're either going, they're rounded out with a guy like Ferguson right there in that same price point or go up to a guy like Kraft or drop down to guys like Pierce Strong, right, for $3,000. So I just don't. Don't think people get there in kickers, and we've seen kickers continue to print in showdownsShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Read the full definition of Showdown, and it's no different here.

So I know there's some wind and some issues there, but I don't care. I mean, nothing better than being over on kickers, and you get that fifty-yard field goal to start off the game, and you're kind of just minted from there on. So I do like the kickers quite a bit. Defenses, if I get any, I get any, but they're going to be unownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage right around five percent ownership in terms of the defenses there. So nothing too crazy in terms of takes.

From the kicker position. Pam, let's circle back and look at the value here on this slate because, again, if you are playing the CeeDee Lamb up top, the Dak Prescott up top, even Javonte Love, I mean, Watson, you do have to find some value on this slate. Again, we have Savion Williams at two hundred dollars expected to be activated here and going to slot into kind of that wide receiver three four row. We don't really know what it's going to look like yet.

We haven't seen it. So any any additional breakdown on the value position here? Pure strong down to Savion Williams at two hundred dollars. The big one is pure strong chalk at $3,000 flat. I'm going to probably.

As we approach lock be right around that twenty five to thirty percent range um which feels pretty uh pretty heavy pretty strong um no no pun intended there for for me um on a guy who you're kind of hoping you strike lightning in a bottle he breaks one on third down or or gets kind of that that red zone punch when he's got a sixty and a half Russian prop yeah I mean I didn't realize he was going to be twenty five thirty thirty percent on I mean He's probably the best of the bunch.

I mean, if you don't go cheap there, like you said, you're going to have to go John New at sixteen hundred, which you said he ran what the fifth most routes last week or played the fifth most or third. Yeah. Fifth most routes on the team. Yeah. I mean, so, yeah, I mean, that just makes it like Flournoy that much more.

Like if you're if there's no real value and we don't love the defenses like Flournoy, to me is by far and away the best quote unquote cheap and he's $4,400. So yeah, I would I would probably start there. Yeah, what a game here. Rams and the Cardinals, sixteen to fifteen, just like everybody thought. Right. And no Puka, no Kyron. It's Blake Korman, Kobe, Kobe Parkinson with the two touchdowns there for the Rams.

So congratulations, everybody, with those Stafford triple stacks with Kyron Puka and DeVonta Adams. Hopefully you're counting your money tonight on this Sunday main slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. But that's kind of why circling back to the kickers here, Ham. I just like the kickers value this bad. This week, I mean, Pierce Strong, what's his rushing? Like, I don't know what his carries prop is. Do you have it off the top of your hand here? I can get it, though. Give me, like, thirty seconds.

Just how many carries he's going to get total?

Yeah, I just want to know what his rushing attempts prop is because, I mean, Sabre right now, I'm looking at Sabre, and I'm looking at an average of ours and Sabre's ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership, and I'm seeing Pierce Strong at, like, twenty six percent um owned at $3,000 and I get it right I get it because everybody doesn't like MarShawn Lloyd um and there's a massive price discrepancy there as well um yeah it's not even listed Yeah.

So, I mean, that's why I'm just more so like I don't mind rounding it out with a guy like Tracy Mack at $4,800 or taking a shot at Bo Melton for two hundred dollars less than pure strong. Right. So Bo Melton, I think, is probably my favorite valueValueValue is the fantasy production you expect from a player relative to his salary. A value play offers more production or upside than his price suggests, whether he is cheap or expensive.Identify why the salary looks wrong: workload, matchup, scoring ability or a pricing error. Then check whether that reason still holds when you submit your lineup.Read the full definition of Value play in general on the slate at $2,800. Then John New Smith.

And then I'm probably just dropping all the way down to Savion Williams at two hundred bucks is kind of how I rank and see the value tier. And it makes me like, again, the kickers even more so. Any final remarks here, Ham, on this showdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Read the full definition of Showdown here? Yeah, I don't think so. Looking forward to the game. Hopefully it's a good one. And hopefully we get that Milly win. How's our guy on the Mills doing? Let's refresh here and share this tab. He's still holding on.

He's still sweating it out. He's still holding on. It does help that this Rams and Cardinals game is dudding because obviously there's so much ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership in that game. The guy behind you got to lose, by the way. Yeah. So the only one – That's really close to him right now is Corum. But that game is about to be over. And Xavier Worthy. So, I mean, Worthy. Yeah, Worthy is not going to get any more touches.

Well, I mean, the issue is Worthy is at like twenty five yards away from the bonus. But it's sixteen to nine. Right. Or nineteen to six. Yeah. Yeah. Nineteen to six and they just missed the field goal there. So, yeah, I mean, he's the big sweat is Worthy. Worthy in the Chiefs defense. I mean, those are the only guys really close to him here on the screen. So, yeah, hopefully our guy MSP holds on with with the ticket.

And Aaron Rodgers, right, finds him, finds himself some Aaron Rodgers to the to the winner there. Jeremy Bernard, what a just complete hero. I mean. The Bama, right? He was a Bama guy? Yep. Transferred to Bama late. Yeah. Bama guy there. Jeremy Bernard. I mean, $4,000 with no Roman Wilson, no Michael Pittman. I mean, Rogers likes to get the ball out quick. It just made so much sense there. That was a really good play. Malik Nabers just continues to do it.

Even with hold on everybody. Hold on. Time out. Time out. You know, check the pulse, check the pulse. Brock Bowers caught the fricking ball. He got a target. He caught it. Talk about Brock Bowers getting the – Brock, that's his third in the second half. You know, you start featuring your best player. Good things happen. Got to get him the rock. However you can get it. DeMar Hamlin sighting in there. Someone must be hurt.

Cardinals about to go down nades and kick a game-winning field goal. Yeah, everyone was proud of the Rams Super Bowl champs. I got knocked out last week, but let's see. The Rams had to be just super-duper owned in circa – Yeah, I didn't look at ownership in terms of survivor. Oh, there's Bowers. Uh-oh. See? This is exactly what I said in the Discord, Ham. Bowers does not get used until the fourth quarter. Like, why don't you start the game plan around this dude?

Like, I don't understand. Nate, so check this out. The Rams were thirty-one percent. The Colts were twenty four percent. So you're about to get fifty five percent of the teams knocked out. That are left, which is huge, right? Because there's so much left. Out of out of out of $2,900 entries, another sixteen hundred are going to bite the dust. If the Cardinals if the Cardinals win. That's insane. Yeah. What a what a bloody year for Survivor. Yeah. Now look at this.

They're force feed and Bowers. Eight minutes left in the fourth quarter, and they finally start force-feeding Bowers. Like, don't you think you would game plan around this dude? I just don't understand these franchises, man. But, yeah, overall, I think we broke this game down pretty good. Let's give our favorite overall captain play and a hot take if you have one before we get out of here. Yeah, I'm going to go Javonte is my favorite one.

I like them just ground and pound, get some touchdowns. So, yeah, give me Javonte as my top captain. Any hot take? No. I mean, I think Flournoy will be on the winner. I like Flournoy, Javonte, Dak, and maybe even Lamb in the winner if I can get there. I haven't built any teams yet, but I kind of like – I like those four, my favorite players. Yeah. OK, Marquis says, do you like double kicker? I don't think it's the worst play.

Typically, I don't like double kicker just because I think it's a good floor, but I don't love the ceiling, especially in the game. That's a fifty three and a half point total. I'm just more so playing kind of one of them when I land in that range, because again, Ferguson. Flournoy, I think, are both going to be higher owned. You got Tucker Kraft there as well. And then Pierce Strong. So the kickers are kind of sandwiched in no man's land there.

And again, it's not a grind. It's low total grinded out. So the field typically kind of sells on kickers in these spots. So that's why. But I don't love going both of them in large field tournamentsGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Read the full definition of GPP just because I think both kickers kind of lack upside in general in a game like this. But I do like one of them for sure a lot. In terms of my captains, I'm going Matthews Golden is my favorite guy up top.

And then Marshall Lloyd is kind of the contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian guy. And then the kicker are the quarterbacks. Those are the two quarterbacks I like up there quite a bit as well. In terms of a guy I'm higher on than the field, I think, is going to be Marshall Lloyd. I know he feels expensive. I know it's gross. But I'm seeing Pierce Strong be the guy that everybody wants to play from this backfield. It's a really good matchup.

So I would not be shocked to see both of them get there. But Marshall Lloyd at $7,400. He's right there in the same range as Tucker Kraft. Tucker Kraft feels like a much safer click and a much easier kick click for the field. Give me Marshall Lloyd. I think Marshall Lloyd's. Super interesting in this spot. And then the kickers as well. So nothing else for me here.

I'm going to get out of here, build my teams, head over to the parents' house and order some pizza and watch some of this game. And then I fly out for a work trip tomorrow morning. So, Ham, closing remarks. Yeah, well, first off, safe travels. Good luck to those Packers tonight. Should be a good game, right? That's what we all want is a good game, so hopefully we get it.

And, yeah, hopefully we get somebody in the Discord, if it's not us, to get that dub tonight. Yeah, we'll end the show with good luck to our guy MSP as he sweats out the remaining minutes here of these afternoon games. Hopefully he can hold on there. And if the Chiefs do anything, hopefully it's on the back of Kenneth Walker because he does have everyone covered off on that there. Good luck to MSB. Good luck to everybody else out there. Appreciate everyone tuning in in the chat.

Drop your score predictions down in the comments after this live show is over. We will take a look. And if anyone does nail it, the winner and the score correctly, we will give you a free month. All access over here at Ship It Nation. Get in behind the payroll. Check out all of our tools that we showcase here on these shows. For him, I'm Nades. Good luck tonight in those contests. Hope to see those Ship It Nation logos at the top. We're out of here.

Peace.