NFL Week 4 – Takedown Breakdown | Winning DFS DraftKings Lineups & Strategy Review

Right. When you look at perfect lineups and you see injuries and guys like Tyler Mungai find their way in here, stuff like that. Tyquan Thornton, things like that. Find it in here. So it's not to say this is. Oh, why? Why don't you have the crystal ball and play this? Right. It seems pretty easy.

Any kind of evergreen situations you can pull from this and talk through it is kind of setting the shape up for when we do talk individual lineup reviews themselves. Yeah, this kind of heads why I think it was a weird week. You look at the optimal lineup, it's got multiple guys under one percent ownedOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ on DraftKings. You just don't see that usually. You know what I mean? Because the best plays are usually the best plays, and this week was not that.

Menungai obviously leading the way. He was awesome. Not that many people were even on DeAndre Swift, but the pivot to Monangai obviously paid off if you played him, which not many people did. Tyquan Thornton, as you mentioned, he got hurt himself. He's Likely out for the season, but really benefited from Rashee Rice leaving the game, which hurt me. He saw a bunch of opportunities after Rice left. So you get that.

You get Drake May in the ultimate, like, leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ bounce back spot, which Ham and I talked about on the show earlier. He was the one that like of the under one percent owned players outside the Giants. I thought getting to me made the most sense. Thornton and Monangai were like way off my radar. Thornton, I looked at a tiny bit because I like that game. But Monangai, I can't say I even thought about this week. And then.

The running backs, Walker got there late, but he was a hoss, as he always is. He had the monster. Seventy-eight yard run and then late in the game scored twice. So he's been phenomenal. Kyron Williams scored twice and caught ten balls. And then you had the CD land week. A lot of low ownership plays, which is why the Delta is so big. And sometimes you'll have that. I mean... Only Hawkins, who caught a ton of balls, Walker didn't even get to ten percent.

Like only Hawkins and Walker were guys played in a lot of lineups. And that's surprising out of, you know, basically the rest of the team is all guys extremely long. Yeah, the biggest thing I see here that you can kind of apply to the slate is there's no there's no players that show up here and show up in the winning lineups that were in the quote unquote can't miss spot that everyone said is going to score a hundred points. Right. You have to play it.

That just shows you right. Any given Sunday, nobody knows anything going in. All we know is what the fieldThe FieldThe field is everyone else entered in a contest, the group of lineups you are competing against.Before you build, picture the typical lineup in your contest. Then decide on purpose where you'll match it and where you'll step away from it.Full explanation ↗ is going to do based on projected ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. And hold on, let me check my notes and realize that, hey, projected ownership typically comes through and gives you a piece of the puzzle that you should feel confident in going in. You can't feel confident in on how the players are going to produce.

You can feel confident of the highest on projected players and where the ownership is projected to go. Typically comes through outside of obviously a late inactive, something like that. But going into the slate, we knew the Cincinnati Jacksonville game was going to have all the ownership in the world. There was a lot of plays in there. And I know the game scriptGame ScriptGame script is how a game's score and time remaining influence its pace, play choices and player opportunities. In football, teams protecting a lead often run more, while teams chasing a deficit often pass more.Before locking a lineup, ask who keeps playing if your expected script reverses. Check passing-down roles and backup rotations instead of assuming a team's leading rusher handles every situation.Full explanation ↗ kind of played out differently with Chase getting hurt and things like that.

But the biggest thing I pull away is don't get fixated on a game just because. It's a high total and all the ownership is there. A prime example of this one, the CD lamb, Nico Collins, right? Game that the Houston Dallas game was four points different in terms of totals. The projected ownership in that game was bottom four on the slate. And it was the fourth highest total on the slate.

That is where you can pull away where you can pull away lessons and learnings and look at that right. Use the projected ownership as a foundational piece into your process and understand, OK, why is the ownership going here? How can I use that to play against it or to pull it and then combat that with a kind of lineup constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗ theory there? So that's one of the biggest things that I pull away here in terms of the process.

Another thing, right, this value tight ends just continue to come through. It's not just to say Hawkins, right? I didn't expect Hawkins to go out there and get thirty points. The field didn't either, but he was played at thirty percent because there was no Justin Jefferson. His price was still way too cheap at $3,300. The value on the wide receivers have started to come up. DraftKings has raised the price on these quote unquote value receivers to like the mid $4,000 range.

Right. Or the low $5,000 range we're looking at for value receivers outside of DraftKings. Different one-offsOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗ here and there, right, in different situations. But majority, you're not finding high-quality floor-ceiling combination guys like you are at the tight end position. And that's why, I mean, you continue to see these tight ends, these spend-down tight ends and two tight end lineups be profitable slated in and slated out is because the way the shape of the DraftKings pricing system works.

So any additional kind of feedback points on that? No. No, I think you're spot on. I mean, it goes back to what I talk about a lot. The margins are thin in the NFL, man. Like, the good teams and the bad teams, for the most part, aren't separated by a lot. That's why you see a lot of quote-unquote upsets every single week because the margins are real thin.

Like, the talent margins on, again, maybe from the absolute best team to the absolute worst team, the margins are decent. But outside of that, most of these teams are – pretty similar. So because of that, you're going to have games play out differently than you might think every single week. So I think you make great points. Yeah. One additional thing too, how someone could have landed on the Giants defense, right? Who is projected to be one of the highest selling plays on the slate?

Jeremiah Love. Right. Jeremiah Love. So how do you get to that defense? Three hundred on the opposite side when you're not going to that game, you can easily click him in there. What was everyone doing at running back? Right. They were using the three $6,000 running backs on this slate. Why not? Why? Why couldn't you spend upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗ on a guy like Kenneth Walker?

I know the game scriptGame ScriptGame script is how a game's score and time remaining influence its pace, play choices and player opportunities. In football, teams protecting a lead often run more, while teams chasing a deficit often pass more.Before locking a lineup, ask who keeps playing if your expected script reverses. Check passing-down roles and backup rotations instead of assuming a team's leading rusher handles every situation.Full explanation ↗ kind of fell into his lap late in the game, but that's just That happens, right? That happens in the NFL. It's the process going in. Nobody was spending up at running back. Nobody. If they were, they were going to Christian McCaffrey. So spending up on a guy whose role is solidified in the offense, people expected the Chiefs to score points, right? People were messing with Mahomes and Kelley and Rice and all these other guys, right?

So going in on spots like that is what you can pull out.

Disregard the name the names here it's more of the roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗ it right if people are spending up a wide receiver where were they going they were going to Ja'Marr Chase and going to Parker Washington and those get those guys in that game right cd lamb Nico Collins to spend up receivers that were low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ yeah six percent for cd lamb ten percent for Nico Collins correlatedCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Full explanation ↗ in the same game one percent of the field played those guys together right so little things like that is kind of stuff you can extrapolate out and the biggest thing is the total ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ use the total ownership as your structure as your starting point going in and look at

That compared to the game total and if there's a big delta like there was this week with Houston and Dallas tambo's leverage lane shouted to him talking on that game then you look at the point difference right the the Vegas total if it's really not that far off and the ownership is one third one half maybe that's probably a pretty good spot in tournaments with with being so top heavy so nothing more to really add there um talking on the the perfect line up there it's kind of just what got there and with a big delta but let's uh jump in and talk the twenty dollar milli maker here first um A loose EJ.

Nineteen seventy three got there with a Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, CD Lamb, Nico Collins, bring back. No Aaron Jones, no Jeremiah Love, none of those $6,000 running backs. They pivoted off of those, pulled the Kyron Williams, shout out to Blicko on his leverage lane talking about that. $5,900 for Kyron Williams in that Rams offense in this spot. Thought that was a really, really good play. Obviously, he shows up on pretty much every winning lineup we're going to review.

The double tight end, the value double tight ends, again, I talk about my value coming through. The value at the other positions is just pretty scarce in general. That's why you see the tight ends typically trickling in there. So anything you kind of see here, the biggest thing I see is – no exposure from that Arizona Giants game, no exposure from that Jacksonville Cincinnati game, right?

So, I mean, you can get there with spots that the field isn't, and that's obviously everyone's probably saying no crap, right? That's obviously, right? That's what got there. But from a results standpoint, what do you kind of see with this kind of setup here, and how do you compare that to what we knew going in? Went heavy on that game that you just talked about with the three Cowboys that were all low-ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. Whenever you get two low-owned plays...

When you have low-owned plays like Lamb, Kyron, and Javonte go off and chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ plays not do well, it gives you the luxury of having a guy like Ertz not do anything. Jacksonville defense, because you've made up so much ground with your other plays. So... This is obviously a well-constructed lineup, especially considering the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. We talk about getting different in tournaments. This is exactly that.

Then you add in this day Flowers play, who was another leverage piece off of Henry, who wasn't really that popular himself, but got talked about a lot. So yeah, pieces came together here. Cowboys really did it for him in a spot that people were really hesitant to play, even though Houston defense has not been the vaunted defense of yesteryear this year so far. I mean, that's the biggest thing. Forty seven and a half total Vegas wasn't really scared of that game.

They still hung out nearly fifty point total in that spot. But again, a projected ninth of twelve games on the slate in terms of ownership. Seventy four percent total ownership was projected going in. The Deltas were right there in terms of actual ownership coming in. Top three points at the bottom four in ownership, right? So that's one of the biggest lessons that I learned coming away from this slate is really kind of comparing that game to the other games that everyone is going in on.

And another thing I want to talk about here, Belman, is – Chalk is usually chalk for a good reason. But where chalk, I think, leads people down the wrong path is talking about that combo, combilatory ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. Right. The CMC chalk. Who is he going to be paired up with? Right. The Trevor Lawrence. Right. When people were playing Trevor Lawrence, they were also playing Parker Washington. We knew that Chase Brown, Parker Washington was a very, very.

Common secondary stackMini-StackIn NFL DFS, a mini-stack usually pairs two players from the same game without either team's quarterback. Often a secondary group beside your main quarterback stack, it can pair a running back with an opposing receiver.Before locking a pair, describe how both players reach big scores together. Then ask whether that outcome would make an omitted quarterback or teammate difficult to beat.Full explanation ↗ right kyler stacks people were playing kyler stacks almost ninety percent of them were gonna have at least one of Addison and hockinson and most of them had two right so little things like that I think is some of the biggest things that to take away here um that that I can I can see um on this um any other point talking points here from a lineup standpoint No, and honestly, it's hard for me to even criticize people who played Parker Washington with Trevor Lawrence because it seemed like an easy play to make.

I mean, but this is what we talk about in thinking outside the box and using leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ and stuff. Most people aren't going to play Trevor Lawrence without Parker Washington. And a lot of weeks, you're going to need Parker Washington. But on the weeks you don't and you don't play him, And Trevor Lawrence has a really good week. I mean, you gained so much leverage on the field. It's worth thinking about those things. And yesterday it played out just like that.

I mean, similarly, when you look at the Mills winning lineup, playing Javonte with Dak and CeeDee Lamb, a lot of people don't like to do that. But if the Cowboys score enough and all those guys were low on, I mean, that really set the lineup apart and kind of plays into the overarching theme here. Yeah, no, that's one of the biggest things. So when you're taking a look at like your quarterback setup, right?

Obviously, every lineup that I build kind of starts with the stack and then builds in pieces around it, right? Unless they're just overarching, glaring value play. At a running back, something like that. But typically I start, and most people I would assume, right, start with their stack as kind of their foundational starting point in their lineup and then work from there.

When you're going in on guys like Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, right, three quarterbacks that were all getting played a lot because of their stacking partners, you start going down that and you see, okay, based on projected ownership, you can kind of assume what the fieldThe FieldThe field is everyone else entered in a contest, the group of lineups you are competing against.Before you build, picture the typical lineup in your contest. Then decide on purpose where you'll match it and where you'll step away from it.Full explanation ↗ is going to do. Parker Washington was projected really high. Some of these other guys within that game were projected very high.

So when you start going down the same path as everyone else, Trevor Lawrence, okay, Parker Washington, if I'm playing Trevor Lawrence, I should probably play Parker Washington. You start clicking these guys, you just fall into a very similar roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗. Then when you look at the combined ownership amongst the field, you just kind of really put yourself in a room full of a ton of people that you really have to kind of have the perfect script run out. To get there right for you.

So that's one of the biggest things. QB plus two was seventeen percent of the top one percent point one percent of lineups versus the field played at a thirty three percent rate because of projections driving that. Right. So that's another thing to kind of take into account, Matt, is when we look at these plays that are projecting off the charts so so well like that Cincinnati, like that Jacksonville game. Right, you can kind of start seeing what I mean.

People are going to just stack that up so many different ways. It's going to pull all the ownership up from the other stacking partners into that game, or then it leaves. If that's the case, right? It leaves other spots, right? Maybe you didn't get to the Houston spot, but that you still could have looked at other spots where OK, maybe one place projected to get be a pretty solid play, but the rest of the rest of the spots aren't getting there and then.

Right. Well, the total is still pretty decent. It looks good on the stone. It has a good optimal rate on our content over here. So little things like that is kind of the biggest thing that I'm pulling away is just that combinatory ownership is so important. And you can start to put the puzzle pieces together based on projected ownership because ownership has gotten to a point where it's it's pretty good. Especially our ownership. I know Sheets does the ownership review. He dropped in the Discord this morning.

We were the number one site for the most accurate ownership on this given week across like twenty different projection sources that he backtests. So you should feel good about the ownership.

Holding true on most spots use that to your your advantage and don't just go in and say okay this guy's thirty percent on I'm gonna fade because he's thirty percent well why is he thirty percent and how can you play him differently combine that and build a different structure around it to still good plays because the highest on plays are usually good plays for a reason right so um any anything to add on that no I just I I think you make great points all around.

I mean, at the end of the day, it's an ownership game. And it goes back to what I said earlier about how, because of the low ownership Cowboys, it gave him so much wiggle room to play guys that, you know, quite frankly, didn't perform like Zach Ertz and Jacksonville's defense.

But when you got a lineup full of low on guys that smash and then you The other team that we haven't talked about, the elephant in the room almost, is the Vikings because Addison and Aaron Jones were also uber chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ along with Hawkins, with Hawkins being the only guy you needed. So he only played Hawkins here that set him apart. And, you know, Addison was pretty busty. Aaron Jones was mid.

So on a week where a lot of chalk fell, getting away from the pack meant even more. So I just agree with everything you said. Yeah, I mean using using a pivot at the same position right in a similar setup that if the game goes his way he can outmatch the Aaron Jones and Kyron Williams right using three wide receiver ones instead of wide receiver twos and threes that are thrusted into a better role.

Because of the environment they're in in CD lamb, Nico Collins, a flowers, right? When most people have Addison, they have, um, those value kind of mid range $5,000, uh, receiver plays. Right. So just kind of flipping that and then getting your value again from the tight end position is the biggest thing that I see here. Jags defense, uh, again, um, on the opposite side of, of all the Bengals.

If you're not playing all the Bengals because you're leveraging it with the spend upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗ receivers in CD lamb, Nico Collins, right? Why not throw in a Jags defense? Who's been really good. Mind you, you're already off all the chalk from the, you're not playing Chase Brown. You're not playing Higgins. You're not playing Burrow. You're not playing Ja'Marr Chase, right? The, the can't miss total. You're going to the fourth highest total on the slate while thrown in a, in a Jags defense.

So I think, um, stuff like that is really uh really good in general but uh take a look at the mega million here quick uh one drop king obviously really good player frankie Bourne coming coming right there um shortly uh edging out tambo at the end in some of his stuff with the kenneth walker stuff rolling out, but you kind of see some of the similar setups here.

You obviously see Aaron Jones in a field like this, right, where there's only six hundred and thirty four entrance. It's obviously a big buy in a lot of ticket entrance in here. You're going to see the better play, the good projected plays show up a little bit more. You see the George Kittle, who was another really good projected tight end as well, that kind of just got held in check because of the way the slate shake shook up.

But Any – what's your initial thoughts on the mega winners here? Yeah. I mean, different but the same in that, you know, a lot of the Cowboys, CeeDee Lamb – Everywhere here. I mean, just a monster set of Cowboys record with catches and then scored late. So just a monster game from him. And he was the one that wasn't like Uber low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. He came in like around ten percent ownedOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. So you're going to see him and Nico Collins everywhere. It makes sense.

Some combination of like Kenneth Walker, Kyron Williams. I mean, it's almost like a lot of the really good plays are were really good, but the best plays failed. And that's kind of what we talk about also. It's not always about the absolute best plays projection-wise. There's so many games, so many good plays on any given week.

What you talked about a few minutes ago, it's easy to get different off the games that are talked about a lot with a variety of different spots that can play out, simply put, differently than the Masters think they will. Yeah, I like that as well. Another thing too is looking at the onesies positions, right? The tight end spot, the quarterback spot, the defense spot, right? That's where a lot of the separation can come in, I think. I mean, quarterbacks, you're looking at Josh Allen, right?

Lamar, Brock Purdy, Burrow, Dak, Stroud, all these guys projected for pretty low ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ and all. Had, I mean, Burrell, thirty two, Dak, thirty twenty nine point two from Stroud. Right. These kind of guys in different spots across the slate. Right. We've seen really get there. And typically. Right. If you see a lot of value plays. Right. Projecting like TJ Hawkins and Aaron Jones and Jordan Addison.

Well, when you have so much ownership going to that spot, most people, the easiest route to go is just to throw their quarterback in with them. Right. I think it is. And that's where I think if you're finding yourself kind of falling into that trap because you can't get off of the fact that Aaron Jones, Hawkins, Jordan Addison, these guys project so well in their spots and you find in. OK. I'm falling down the same path that everyone else is going to.

If I go down that path, I have to have kind of the perfect run out to go my way because I'm going to be covered, especially in fields like this, right? Single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗, it's a little bit different there, Belman. But in an MME, obviously, you're a very good MME player yourself.

You play – a lot typically you play a lot less than the max but you play in the larger field contests themselves so you have an idea of that as well going in um any additional to points to add

On on that kind of setup um I think because I think that's one of the biggest lessons that people can kind of take away especially right most of the most of our member base most of most of the viewers are playing less than max entrance right um in these larger field contests or they're winning tickets right and they're less than max with up against pros who have a lot of different avenues covered within a in a game environment especially when they see projections that look so good that it's hard for someone to get away from right it is hard I mean totally especially when it kind of goes hand in hand with what I talk about.

There's so many good plays. It can get overwhelming, right? That's why stacking is easy. Looking at projections can just be easy because it gives you like a the ability to not really have to make a decision, but ultimately we play an ownership game. And what me and you talk about a lot on, especially the MLB shows is these contests are so top heavy. Everyone's looking at projections nowadays, especially when you're playing in these bigger, bigger money contests, everyone's using Sims.

Like how do you get a leg up from the field knowing that? So it's about knowing what contests you're playing, knowing your bankrollBankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗. I think all of it goes hand in hand. Um, Yeah, we talked about it before the show. DFS will always find a way to humble you, no matter what. Yeah, no, absolutely. I want to take a look at Tambo's lineup here. He had two entrants, two tickets into the mega here.

So, again, he stuck with his kind of leverage lane of the Nico Collins play, and really his leverage lane was fading that – that Cincinnati spot right that again everybody looked at it saw the total saw the projections saw all the plays within that game and it's like I can't get away it's hard for me to get away but he knew going in right in a spot like this how do you put yourself he knew I mean all the pros had pretty much a bunch of those angles covered going into this type of contest here so What's your initial thoughts breaking down this kind of build that had him in a position to, if it ran out the right way for him, he could have had the million dollars in his pocket there.

And he still played the Christian McCaffrey chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗. He still played the Aaron Jones chalk. He still played the George Kittle chalk. He still played the Dontavian Wicks chalk. But how he played the chalk and set it and put the pieces together were different than how everyone else was playing those plays. They were plugging those plays in amongst the most popular game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗, the Kyler Murray stacks, right? The Trevor Lawrence stacks, right?

Because that allowed you to spend upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗ for the Christian McCaffreys, the spend up wide receivers in Ja'Marr Chase, things like that. So what's your initial breakdown here? Yeah, it goes into what we talk about a lot. It's not who you play, it's how you play them. And people think that just because guys are getting ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, you have to fadeFadeTo fade a player is to leave him out of your lineups on purpose, usually because you expect him to be popular or you think he is a poor play.Fade with a reason, not a feeling. If you can't say why a popular player will disappoint, you're probably just giving away points.Full explanation ↗ them. That's not the case.

It's about, you know, oftentimes, especially in NFL and NBA most of the time, You play the best plays and then you get different around them. And this is a good example of that. Now, obviously, hindsight is twenty twenty probably wish instead of Aaron Jones, he played Hockenson. Certainly the lineup maybe could have gotten there was really close as is great lineup, especially when we talked about the ownership earlier.

And when you have this lineup finished eleventh with guys that you talked about, like Wicks, who was really popular, that didn't do anything. Didn't have Hawkins because he played a low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ seeding lamb. Stroud was really good at low ownership, you know, faded some of the chalk that busted Nico Collins was really good. So yeah, wish things had played out a little bit differently to see him get all the way to the top.

And honestly, Kittle scored a TD late, but was hard without Hawkins at his price tag. So yeah, man, close, but in these tournaments, I like what you talked about before. Um, Knowing that the guys who are max entering now, there's only nineteen guys that are maxing can only play nineteen lineup. So it's not like they're playing one fifty. But knowing that and knowing that the guys who are playing ten plus are going to play a lot of that Bengals Jaguars game.

It does make sense if you're playing one lineup to. Not go all in on that game, maybe not play anything from that game. I only played two pieces from that game. Clearly I wish I had played none. You know what I mean? Because the guy, two guys I did play were awful, but hindsight's twenty twenty. Right. So, yeah, wish things had played out a little bit differently, but still a hell of a nice day finishing eleventh in that tournament.

Yeah, I mean, one of the things, too, is, I mean, Kittle owned on his own. McCaffrey's owned on his own at the position. But playing them together, that's where you get unique in terms of construction, right? Pairing those kind of together, right? The secondary stackMini-StackIn NFL DFS, a mini-stack usually pairs two players from the same game without either team's quarterback. Often a secondary group beside your main quarterback stack, it can pair a running back with an opposing receiver.Before locking a pair, describe how both players reach big scores together. Then ask whether that outcome would make an omitted quarterback or teammate difficult to beat.Full explanation ↗ of wicks and... Tyler Higbee, right? How many people played Wicks attached to Tyler Higbee and not Kyron Williams, not Puka Nacua, not one of those other guys, right? And Tyler Higbee also leverages off the position.

It's not about, oh, well, Tyler Higbee only scored eleven and he could have easily just played TJ Hawkins who scored thirty. That's not the point, right? The point is he was hoping the game was running through Aaron Jones. Projections were off the chart for Aaron Jones. His price wasn't right. It fit a lot of the... The structure going in to be able to get to underutilized game stack in general, right? Using the stack to leverage the setup of your lineup going in, right?

So that's the biggest thing that I see and I can take away from this week that's not results-oriented is – Use the ownership to your advantage. Look at compare that to what the game, what Vegas projects the game total to be at. And then how does the field rank that amongst what they're going in and what they want to do? Right. So that's one of the biggest things.

Let's take a look at the hundred dollar single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ winner here from our guy B-Wald in the Discord here. Um, so he was in the secondary one, the $50,000 one. This where is it? This one. So I got B walled right here. Here's his lineup. Just an absolutely. I mean, this is another lineup in general here. Belman, a lot of the same stuff, obviously, but the biggest thing is the spend upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗ running back that wasn't Christian McCaffrey, right? So what's your overall breakdown here?

Just again, huge shout out to B wall turned like through two hundred bucks, three hundred bucks into like seventy five grand overall, plus an entrance to the ship at games finale where he could win another $10,000 plus in cash and prizes. With our free relationship at games contest. But how do you see this one? I mean, monster lineup here, right? Like, man, considering how many plays were just unfulfilling and let down yesterday, this lineup seems like just monstrous, right?

I mean, you get the Texans stack with Stroud and Nico. Hutchinson was mid, but was cheap and unownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗, so who cares? Pair it with CeeDee Lamb, who was needed, right? You had the monstrous two running backs. I mean, the only thing that would make this lineup, like, nut more is Hawkins over Higbee. Not that Higbee was bad, but Hawkins was amazing. It got caught so many balls. Outside of that, though, I mean, well done.

Like, talk about ownership, I'll show, because it's, you know, it holds a big role today. And this lineup is evidence of that. I mean... Got there with low-owned guys and then guys who were talked about, Walker and Kittle, you know, played two pieces from that game. Just, man, wish I played that lineup yesterday. Yeah, no, for sure. I do agree as well.

This goes to show, right, picking your spots, picking your spots, and don't be afraid to go in on them and not to always necessarily say you have to over-correlateCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Full explanation ↗ as well, right? The Kyron Williams, Higbee, Rams, right? Most people, if they're playing that kind of setup with Kyron Williams and Higbee together throughout Rams defense because you could have played a million other defenses right there. I know, what, the Jets was right there at the same price, things like that.

Kyron Williams and Higbee, most people playing them together would also had Dontavian Wicks right on the other side instead of Xavier Hutchinson. Right. So using your stack to leverage the popular plays within that and Xavier Hutchinson didn't get there, but he didn't fall into the same trap that everyone else was in playing more chalk. Just to play the more chalk, right?

It is one of the things I see here as well, but huge shout out to B Walt for, for crushing here in the a hundred dollars single entry, just a really, really good build in general. Matt, any other things you want to look at here? Obviously, a lot of the winning lineups are all going to have pretty much the same thing in that Houston setup there. But just from an overall evergreen process, lessons learned kind of thing that people can take away and apply to theirs.

Because again, nobody knows what the results are going to be. The results are just the end result of your process going in. Anything to add there? Yeah. One thing, and we haven't even talked about this spot that really got there yesterday. Cause the Houston Dallas back was got there leaving a little bit more, but James Winston and the Giants, you know, I liked him last week. The weather was awful.

Everyone was kind of just off of James completely now because of like one and a half lackluster performances, but we've read that book before with him. And again, I, Clearly he wasn't needed. He didn't need Nabers, but that was also a really low old pairing that didn't hurt to have in tournaments.

So again, hindsight's twenty twenty, but kind of just like trusting your process and not bailing on potentially good players because of not good performances in one week when there might have been reasons for those bad performances is kind of what I'm thinking about after this week. No, me as well. That that's one of the biggest things there, too. I don't really have a ton more more to add. Just wanted to shout out a ton of the members like B-Wall had a great day.

A bunch of the other members were absolutely just on fire overall this weekend and. The biggest thing is, hey, if you haven't had the best week, you didn't pull a lot away from this week or you had a tough run out, you made a bad swap, things like that.

If you're going in and you're putting and reviewing your process right and putting yourself in position eventually the cards are going to roll your way right um just you got to keep doing it you got to keep staying consistent still trusting trusting your process in general working on on pulling different nuggets here and where and going back in right matt and and kind of rerunning right using uh SaberSim using rewinds um and going in and and just taking a look at okay how can I

Apply some of the stuff that I I watched here I saw on different review shows or looked at different differently and where did I make mistakes how can I learn from them and not getting focused on okay this guy scored x number of fantasy points I needed to play him well yeah that's that's what we know at the end um So that's one of the biggest things taken away there is just, again, I can't stress enough. The game totals mean a ton.

That's what everyone builds off of. That's what projections run off. Projections run this sport. Looking at the deltas between those and what the potential projected ownership is there and comparing that against the other games on the slate, right? Because, I mean, there is still twelve games at the end of the day. So you can't Everyone has kind of the same deck of cards going in. But looking at it that way, I think is one of the biggest things that I took away.

And not just because the Houston game was the game you needed, right? You mentioned James Winston. You mentioned there's other spots, right? The Dak Prescott, right? Obviously part of that game. There's other games that...

Could have also done their thing if cd lamb and and Nico Collins got kind of twenty five instead of their top one percent of outcomes Cousins right Kirk Cousins another one right with the with the Las Vegas stuff right so um there's just a lot of things there um any uh any closing thoughts from you in terms of just overall process um bankrollBankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗ type of type of stuff No, I think kind of what you just mentioned is interesting, you know, potential strategy and NFL DFS usually in the, You know, the DFS circle is small and most of the time on these main slates, you know, let's say it's an eleven game slate.

You'll have like four games that are talked about by the masses for the majority. And if you kind of separate from that and look at the slate from another lens and maybe isolate for other games and NFL plays out weird again, we talked about it at the beginning of the show. The margins are thin. You just never know on a game-to-game basis. So, again, that doesn't mean not playing the best plays, but maybe playing them differently.

Yeah, always fun doing this show with you or Tambo, whoever we're doing it with, breaking down the winners. It seems easy and obvious in hindsight, but that's what hindsight will do. So fun talking about it nonetheless. Yeah, no, definitely fun. I have had a lot of close calls as well, kind of pulling the different nuggets from when you and Tambo are talking about this and just doing some review in my own process there.

And again, some of the swaps that didn't work out, right? Again, prime example. Actually, to close it out here, let me pull up this one right here. And actually, I don't know if it's going to... I don't know if it will will work, but I was going to talk about the right again, the.

The Hawkins, right, because because this happened to me, right, the ownership, I got scared of the ownership of TJ Hawkins right at a onesie position, so I had the CJ Stroud I had the C.J. Stroud, C.D. Lamb, Nico Collins with the Aaron with Aaron Jones. Right. It's kind of my my foundational starting point there that I had. And then I had C.D. Lamb, Javonte Williams and Flournoy as my. Bringbacks, right?

So I did a QB plus one with three bringbacks on the other side. And then I had the Aaron Jones. I think I had Rams defense or something at $2,500. And the pivot that I made because I was afraid of the ownership was. I moved Javonte Williams down to Brees Hall, or not Brees Hall, Braylon Allen, moved the Rams defense to the Jets defense to correlateCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Full explanation ↗ those, and then moved TJ Hawkins to pair with CJ Stroud.

So I had a QB plus two with just the one bring, with the two bringbacks in CeeDee Lamb and Flournoy. I mean, obviously that it hurt, cost me like forty seven points, cost me a $7,500 top five finish there. But that's again. Right. When your stack is so differentiated from what the fieldThe FieldThe field is everyone else entered in a contest, the group of lineups you are competing against.Before you build, picture the typical lineup in your contest. Then decide on purpose where you'll match it and where you'll step away from it.Full explanation ↗ is going to do, the Hockenson ownership at that point doesn't really matter. Right. Because it doesn't it doesn't matter. Right. Your stack is opening up.

Your freedom to play the highest projection. You don't need to play all the low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ plays. You're already on a low owned stack at that point, play the best place with it. Now it's a fine line. And like, you don't know that going in. So it's easy to, you know, be hard on yourself now because you're, you know, again, hindsight is twenty twenty. But yeah, I mean, you're right.

Like ultimately, it's a learning lesson in that like you don't need to just play all the low end plays because if you're playing a low end stack, play the best plays with it. But also maybe to in your head before that, Hawkins wasn't as good of a play as he seemed to other people. And that also made sense, too. I mean, Hawkins still had an outlier game. You know what I mean? Yeah, no, it's not from our results.

It's just I think maybe going back to the overcorrelation aspect of the CorrelationCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Full explanation ↗ doesn't always mean it has to be attached to the quarterback, right? And on the same team. So like CJ Stroud, right? The three bringbacks on the other side are still correlated that because Maybe it's Javonte, right, and CeeDee Lamb soaking it up. Flournoy is just kind of there as a value piece to make it all work.

And enforcing in, I think, that extra correlation attached to my quarterback, I think, is the lesson that I can pull away, throwing the results aside. And I know Blickle talked about this on Leverage Lane pretty much this whole season. One of the most overutilized things in today's landscape of DFS is attaching your tight end.

To your quarterback at the current structure that tight ends are priced at because there's so many other I mean obviously that can go both ways there but I kind of forced Dalton Schultz within that stack because I didn't like the three non QB correlated pieces on the other side of the game. Right. So have you taken a look at that at all within your own builds and kind of thought about that?

Because I think this is something that people can take away from is when they're building their teams, they're building their teams. It's very hard to go in and click three guys from one team and only one from your quarterback side in terms of your stack. There is merit, right? That if that game goes off, that can also help you out. And you're making a bet on basically, okay, CJ Stroud can out beat Dak Prescott.

And I soak enough of the usage up and his points away from through Javonte Williams and CD lamb itself that I don't know if it's going to be Xavier Hutch. And I don't know if it's Jalen Noel, Dalton Schultz, all these other ancillary guys, right? So forcing that kind of, Tight end with the quarterback there, I think, is one of the biggest things.

And you see a ton of QB plus twos more times than not include that tight end because typically the tight ends are the value piece that unlocks the other spend upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗ positions like the Christian McCaffrey's, the Kittle, the Ja'Marr Chase's of the world at those other positions where people already want to spend because their projections are there.

Yeah, for me, it goes into the point of like, you got to be able to be a little bit comfortable with being uncomfortable when you're building because it falls in line. It's easy to just build comfortably and not think outside the box, but the tournaments are so top heavy and results are random on any given week, any given day. You know, being different, not in every spot, but, you know, we've talked about it a lot. Just the benefits of, of thinking and playing outside the box.

I think it's, it's always worth repeating. Yeah, no, for sure. Well, I don't really have much more to add here. Obviously, Tambo will be back. He's not going to be back today for the Monday Night Football breakdown, but Hoop and Title will have you covered for that. That show is coming up here in about an hour and fifteen minutes or so. We will be back with, with this show, obviously next Monday, Thursday night, what we'll have covered heading into week five here.

But if you didn't have a great week four, well, week four is still not over yet. There's still $500,000 up top and multiple other contests up top for the showdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗ game tonight, which is a, I think a pretty decent one overall. We'll see how it shakes up. But Atlanta, New Orleans, I think there's a lot of interesting ways to go. Obviously going to have Bijan and stuff, but the crew will have you covered for that.

Belman, any closing remarks before we get out of here? Did I lose you? Yeah, I don't know. It was my headphones. Sorry. I don't know what happened, but of course that happens at the end. Yeah, no worries. Any closing thoughts from you before we jump out of here? No, man, that's all I got. Always fun hopping on a show with you. Been a minute because baseball is no more, no mas, as far as shows go.

But at least both our teams are still alive. Your team cruising. Hopefully my team gets a big W today. But, yeah, man, fun times as always. Good luck to everyone tonight, and let's ship it. Yeah, good luck tonight. Hopefully, hopefully the gardens can can follow suit and get it done there.

I don't know if they have the Bob Euchre angel in the outfield out there, though, holding home runs back in the ballpark and hitting the roof and all that kind of nonsense that people are talking about there, but. Just the grind and the grit from my squad there. I mean, just backs against the wall every game in that series. And to do it against Mason Miller was pretty awesome to watch. Just everyone stepping up.

Gary Sanchez coming in late in that pinch hit there and drawing that walk. That was absolutely insane against, I mean, arguably the best reliever in the game. And maybe all time once it comes to comes to the end once his his kind of career is over and Mason Miller. So all around postseason baseball is absolutely insane. Love to see it. Super, super happy to go over to San Diego being up to.

Oh, it's a different ball game if we go to San Diego and it's one one with that bullpen that they have and at home so. Um, what was fun to see, um, overall, just a great day of sports and yeah, we got more and more post-season baseball. We'll, we'll have you covered with our content there. We'll have the Monday night football content covered. Um, I'll have the NHL stuff up as well. And MBA is right around the corner.

So if you're not a member yet, code ship, five days, dollars gets you everything, um, full access to the website as well. If you want to go over and check out DFS OS, um, which is our partner, uh, We used to break down all of these. You can backtest projections.

You can look at all the contest lobbies, kind of look at portfolio setups in terms of what these players did in MME in terms of their portfolio, who are they underweight on, who are they leveraged. You can use AI to help you kind of pull some of that and pull different evergreen findings away. Just tons of information here and more added benefits coming down the pipeline as well for DFS OS. I mean, people talk about reviewing and this and that, but nobody's really about it.

And this site makes it very easy to do so for not a lot of monetary value in terms of month. I mean, a dollar a day when you use code SHIPIT on DFS OS to get all of this content available to help improve your process.

And hopefully we're reviewing your lineups um in the weeks to come for NFL for Belman I'm nades that's going to do it for this uh takedown breakdown edition we'll be back again like I said but uh we're gonna get out of here and the boys will be back in about an hour right here on this channel breaking down the Monday night football game for Belman I'm nades good luck tonight in those contests hope to see those ship nation logos at the top we're out of here peace