NFL DFS Week 7 Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel Strategy

His number was eight and a half. He's at forty two yards. His number is forty two and a half. And then they didn't use them again. No need to play Blake Corum when he's just ripping it up out there, having another good game. But what was your thoughts on last week? Anything you want to touch on there?

Yeah, I really liked our quorum read, and I think it played out exactly kind of as we hoped, except for the fact that we hoped that they would remain in a good game scriptGame ScriptGame script is how a game's score and time remaining influence its pace, play choices and player opportunities. In football, teams protecting a lead often run more, while teams chasing a deficit often pass more.Before locking a lineup, ask who keeps playing if your expected script reverses. Check passing-down roles and backup rotations instead of assuming a team's leading rusher handles every situation.Read the full definition of Game Script in the third and fourth quarter against the Arizona Cardinals. They were not. And so it became all Kyron's backfield again. But the read was once again really strong there. So I think quorum's in play again this week. It's.

It's weird now because, like, you know, I think the Rams even last week, their expectations for the season were still, all right, well, we're going to win this game and we're going to be in pretty good shape still. And, you know, there's still a lot of season left. And now they suddenly lose that game. And it's like, all right, well, we got to start to hustle to just go make the playoffs.

And so now, like, maybe it's a little bit more Kyron than Corum even early on. Uh, maybe they have to like actually create that really good game script now before quorum starts to get more opportunities. I don't know. So there's a little bit more uncertainty, but I really liked that read that we had last week. And, um, even not playing the third and fourth, like he was still a very valuable running back play.

Better than Bijan, I believe, if you will, especially for the price per dollar. And you think about that, too. And Kyron. He got them both. I think Ross. So that was the key. I mean, by the way, players will be just saying shit after games now. Kyron was like, oh, yeah, they didn't have me out there. That might be the problem. After he was out there, we just explained, you got all these touches down the stretch.

And then LaPorta is just doubling and tripling down on everything that he's been saying this week on Pardon My Take. And everybody's like, you got to pay me, man. I'm better than some of these other tight ends out there. It is tough.

Uh leverage lane but narrative street for Sunday it is national tight end day by the way it feels like it's been that all season we've had a lot of different weeks where it's double tight end or at least two of them come through at an affordable price but there's an interesting one later that people probably already know I'm going to be talking about and it has nothing to do with national tight end day I can promise you that it's not George Kittle so the creator of that day just to make it a day but Um, another thing last week was the Chicago side of that game.

Like we had the, you know, there was London Bija and all that, but like it started off strong and Caleb was able to come through once Loveland dropped, what would have been his second touchdown, uh, beelining for out of bounds, even though there was absolutely nobody around him. He dropped that touchdown. It kind of just broke that game. And that was the problem with the rest of that one. You were on a lot of these, you know, we'll get to it for this week.

It's gonna be funny, but I know you had Tate heavy last week and Carnell Tate just continues. I mean, it's kind of boom or bust, but what more would you want? From a guy like that. It's like when he's coming through, he's getting you big boy points and we'll talk about him again for this week. But that was a really good shout out from you for last week.

Anything else that you wanted to touch on just from how that slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate played out, leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage lanes, things like that, that you had there. Yeah, it was. So the big thing that I wanted to just kind of point out from last week's slate is something that I got wrong, which was my kind of view of the slate was, all right, there are three really expensive guys that people want to fit. Drake Lennon, Bajon Robinson, Puka Nacua.

And in order to fit them, they're using a lot of like what I viewed as questionable cheap chalk. And so to me, it seems pretty clear that the way to build last week was not to just pivotPivotA pivot in DFS is an alternative player or lineup combination you choose instead of another option. Tournament pivots usually seek comparable scoring upside at lower ownership, meaning fewer competing lineups use them.Before swapping, check what the replacement changes around it: your remaining salary, teammates, opposing players and available later-starting options.Read the full definition of Pivot off the expensive guys and play the same cheap guys that everyone else was playing, but to... Either use some of the expensive chalk or just pivot to like a balanced buildBalanced BuildA balanced build spreads salary fairly evenly across a lineup, using mostly mid-priced players instead of a few stars and several minimum-salary players.Go balanced when the slate lacks trustworthy cheap plays. Forcing stars and scrubs without real value just fills your lineup with players who have no role.Read the full definition of Balanced Build.

And so the big leverage point of the slate was I'm going to do a better job either picking cheap guys that I'm correlating or using just like a more balanced build than everybody else. And essentially just kind of leaning into the idea that a lot of the cheap chalk that people were playing had a pretty good chance to fail. Unfortunately, the slick kind of played out the exact opposite, right? Like, you know, the winning lineups had, you know, Jonathan Taylor, James Cook.

Jeremy Bernard. Yeah, Jeremy Bernard, Malik Nabers. So it was a lot of actually like, play the same kind of lineup that everyone else plays and actually differentiate with who you pay upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up for, particularly running back. Kenneth Walker was, was, you know, the big one at running back, I think so. Yeah. Yeah. It was, I don't know if that was like a misread or if like, we just have to recognize. Yeah.

Sometimes even when you have the correct read like that, that it's going to play out in a different way. I think, we we've had this like Jameer Gibbs type flow chart all season. And I do think that maybe one of the things that overlooked was the fact that, Hey, you know what, even though, uh, and actually like, I thought London and Bajon were pretty good chalk. I did not like the puka chalk.

So, um, there was, there was no world where I was playing puka, but, maybe even with London and Bajon in what seemed like good spots, maybe the correct answer was, yeah, but they're not Gibbs. They're still, you know, too Likely to, to fail as a result, or at least too Likely to not put up a score that like you really need. And that, you know, some of the other studs on the slate can't surpass.

And so we do have Gibbs on the slate this week.

It's a, interesting matchup with Green Bay we're going to talk a lot about it the the price tag so um I that's not a segue into well let's just follow the flow chart this week and gives them the sling let's play him it's it's a longer conversation than that but I do think that maybe we should just recognize like even this even the spots that look awesome if they're not jameer gibbs in an awesome spot you can still find leverage off of it because it's NFL DFS and crazy stuff happens Well, yeah, that was the thing because everybody busted.

Last week, you were sitting in the afternoon with Stafford, Puka, Michael Wilson as a runbackBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back. You had everything. Oh, Kelley was affordable on both sites or whatever you ended up having. And it was just like... Obviously once Bijan busts, you know, Kenneth Walker about to break this slate. He was two hundred bucks less. You can't play him anymore in some lineups or the majority when you've got that $8,700 bucks spent up top and he was $8,500 last week.

But a lot of that stuff you talked about is a topic that we can bring right into this week before we get to chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk builds and all that stuff. But like These, you know, this week is not much different from that. Like we, we still had JJ McCarthy last week who ended up coming into the game Nabers and Likely Likely was another chalk piece at tight end, but ended up getting his late.

And so those two getting there helps bring those lineups along, even though the Winston were what were in them because that's what they started with. So I know some people had some really good lineups where Winston was there at, what do you have, eight to ten points? Something light because of what McCarthy did in the fourth quarter, but because those other two pieces were affordable and more popular in that setup, they still came along. With no B Jean or sorry, no Gibbs last week.

Now it's different this week for sure. Gibbs is on the slate, but that was the takeaway where the flow chart actually said, when there's no Gibbs move on and don't just plug in a popular expensive running back. Essentially you're saying you should try and play two receivers. The tricky part is I think for most people, at least I know you said you weren't, but most people that would have meant go to Puka.

Um, So it didn't fully work anyway, but there was plenty of alphas that came through as, as wide receivers. So we'll think about that for this week. What do you think about this though? Some of the pricing I want to talk about quickly, just night, like there's so many conversations going on right now. And look, we'll get to him later. Brock Bowers. Last week, it's like everyone's so happy to victory lap that he was, you know, of course, I thought $7,500 was cheap.

You said like I thought it was this, that and the other. It's of course, that's what they're saying now after all these big weeks that he's had. But like Michael Meyer did get what, seven for ninety seven or six for ninety seven or something. So it's good. That's his. They don't belong to Baker. But Brock Baker, sorry, but I'm saying that at the end of the day, he still wins. Had a decent ending to the game.

Could have been a hell of a lot better, but like if any of that stuff was his, but now with Gibbs at $9,800, I hear a lot of people talking about that. And I don't know what what do you see for ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership right now on Gibbs? I think it's interesting because it shows lower than I would expect. But I think when we get to the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build and just any builds, he can fit in pretty easily.

Yeah I'm I'm I think a little bit higher than most uh I I still have him you know approaching twenty five percent in uh single entries and high stakes over twenty percent in mme um It's an interesting week for running back ownership because when was the last time that there was a $7,600 running back on a slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate that looked like a thousand dollar or $2,000 discount relative to some other running backs?

It's just we haven't had one of these loaded NFL slates this year, especially not since they started to price guys way up. So it just it looks totally different. And I think the McCaffrey is going to get a lot of ownership this week. For good reason, right? There's no Mike Evans, so you know that the volume is going to be crazy high for him, particularly in the passing game.

But I think there's also a psychological effect here at play, which is, oh, if I use McCaffrey, yeah, I'm paying $7,600 for running back, but I'm also saving $2,000 at running back because I'm not going to go get Gibbs instead. And and that just makes him look a little bit more appealing, where I don't think that that's actually the case. It's still a bit of a price prohibitive tag there.

Yeah I think a lot of it too again I know we're waiting uh we got what was the last they played when was it on uh Thursday or oh no Monday Monday night football right and we had to watch the Christian Kirk news right up to lock because we were all interested in your brandon cooks and jacob cow like what really whatever you were going to play uh Watkins Cowing whoever you decided to like there it was but everyone was like well wait a minute if we're about to get Christian Kirk here hopping in most Likely to the slot this could be an opportunity that we see that works out and let's go that route.

And then of course we've got the news. It's not going to be this week. Does sound though, like it's going to be this week, right? What are you thinking there? So he's another guy that's going to fit in when we get later to talking about those value receivers that look, we got two things. We know on this slate, CMC, very popular George Kittle, uh, even more popular because he fills the onesie position and cheaper and all these different factors.

So I really think there's some good stuff there when we get to it later. Any other topics you wanted to talk about before we get in? I think this is a loaded slate, so there's going to be plenty that comes up throughout. But anything else you want to hit on from last week or just game theory, correlationCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation, leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage, stacking, any concepts going into week seven that are on your mind?

Yeah, there's one thing here so we talked already about how like last week it felt like a lot of the cheap chalk wasn't so much chalk because people felt really good about those plays but rather just because people needed to go somewhere and those were like the best options that they could find.

I do think it's a little bit different in this slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate where a lot of the cheap chalk does look like actually good chalk, or at least they look like good projected value. So for example, like when I sort, you know, my projectionsProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections by value, the top three are Woods Marks, Braylon Allen, Ted Hurst. That doesn't mean I like any of them.

That doesn't mean that I love the ceilings for any of them, but it does at least mean that like, all right, This time, you could throw these guys into any slate context, and they would all get reasonable ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. Whereas last week, the cheap chalk, you could throw those guys into a lot of different slate contexts. And there'd be a number of them where they were all single digits, and people just weren't paying much attention to them.

But the way that the pricing worked last week, the way that people wanted to get up to those Atlanta guys and to Puka, it brought all of the ownership of those cheaper guys way up this time around. It looks like these guys, like they'd be owned regardless of the slate. And so I do think it's a, it's a little bit different in that way. Now, some of the cheap chalk last week ended up hitting it a big way, like Jeremy Bernard.

Uh, and then we also like the other interesting thing about last week was it was just a lower scoring slate, right? Like the, the best, like running back combinations got you like twenty five, twenty six, twenty eight, something like that points. Whereas we have a lot of slates where, uh, you know, there are multiple guys in the mid thirties and those twenty fives like they wouldn't have even helped you that much.

So I think all of that is to say like one of my takeaways from last week was I really, really, really want to recognize that was one slate. There are a lot of really kind of unique things about that slate that are unlikely to happen again this week. And It's probably worth almost trying to remove that from the way we're thinking about this slate because it's really easy to fall into that kind of recency bias.

But I don't think there's a whole lot to learn from last week in terms of what is going to win this week, what is going to be successful this week.

Yeah, you kind of talked me into this right now, but again, just like a concept to take away, the last thing, and then we'll move on, is just my big takeaway from all that conversation, doing Takedown Breakdown on Monday and now tying it together, just talking to you this week, is that when you feel like you're just playing cheap chalk to be able to get to what you want to get to because you think you need these guys, that's probably when it's a time to think outside the box.

That means it's what a lot of other people are doing. If you really like, look last week, you could have really loved Jeremy Bernard. That's one piece though. It doesn't mean you have to continue down that path. Well, now that I have him, I need to make sure I get Bijan, London, Puka. And I just have all the guys. That's more like a cash gameCash GameA cash game is a contest that pays a large share of the field, usually close to half, the same flat prize. Fifty-fifties, double-ups and head-to-heads are the common cash games.Treat cash games as the steady base of your bankroll. Use one safe core across your cash entries on a slate, and save riskier ideas for tournaments.Read the full definition of Cash Game mentality in a, in a tournament.

You can say like, look, I like Jeremy Bernard, but I don't like these three other chalk pieces just because, and also think about how you're using that chalk and we'll get to it for this week in a second. But when we get to like the Tampa Bay guys, if you like Hearst, you know, with, with Tampa Bay or whatever. And you say, okay, he's my guy. Plugging him in as a one-offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off, great, if that's what you're doing.

But realistically, if he's going to have a ceilingCeilingCeiling is the high end of a player's or lineup's realistic range of fantasy scores. It describes a big performance that could happen when things go well, not the expected score or an absolute maximum.Describe what must happen for each player to have a huge game. Then check whether those conditions help or hurt the other players in your lineup.Read the full definition of Ceiling game and it's going to make everything else work and all that, I'd be looking to see what does that look like with Baker, with something else, with a run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back, what actually makes this go, and then put it all together. And again, because you like it, not just because it fits everything.

If you say like, I don't even really like Baker, Hurst, any of these dudes, Godwin a shell of himself, but man, it gets me the running backs everyone says are good. You're doing it again. You're saying like, oh, well, it just gets me what I think I need. Play your own process. Play what you think is actually going to happen and then use these concepts and theories to put it together in a way that makes sense. And sometimes that's like a one-off.

You're like, eh, I don't really want to play Golden at this ownership this week, but I do have Gibbs and, They could be the PPR guys. And the rest of the lineup is so unique and would still tell a story of how that can take out the Green Bay Detroit game. And if it's all Gibbs and this guy just does enough, I'd rather play Coker here, but I don't have the a hundred bucks. So I'll just play Golden. Cause at least it still fits it.

Like that's a different story than saying, give me three cheap chalk guys, just cause they have good point per dollar values. Don't correlateCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation anything. And then let me just fit in all the studs. Like that is not the way to do it for what we're playing in these, these tournaments. And we've showed it a bunch in the past, Alex, where a hundred dollars single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry with $100,000 up top, the Delta is different than the twenty dollar Milly Maker.

Yes, but it's not as much, it's not as much as you'll think. Sometimes it's ten to fifteen points. You still need a big boy score going into that hundred dollar single entry.

So just playing it safe because it's all these less entrants it's like you it's only really ten to fifteen points typically and I review it every week for years now so it's it's not as much as you might think and it's got even tighter I think over you know the last couple years just people are putting more risk and they're willing to play it there any anything else to add on that if not let's uh let's get into it for this week let's jump in Going to pull it across here to the site.

If you guys didn't check it out, ShibbitNation.com. Quickly, you can go check it out. The new site is up and running. We adjusted some stuff for members as well. It's just much easier now, especially on the mobile platform for navigation. Like you just, how I would always want it. You find your sport. Is it classic or is it showdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Read the full definition of Showdown? What do I want? And you go there. We are playing NFL. So we'll be going to the Stone.

It pops up right away, but then really cool interactivity just for the site again, classic or showdown. Flip your sport. It's almost like how SaberSim or like the OptimizersOptimizerAn optimizer is software that builds DFS lineups within a site's salary cap and roster rules. It uses projected fantasy points, your settings and, in some tools, simulations to select combinations for a chosen goal.Build a small test batch first. Check which players and combinations repeat, and investigate why before increasing the lineup count or changing settings.Read the full definition of Optimizer have the flips within it. You can just be within your own screen and flip to the other things here if you want to check other stuff out. But I'll bring up the Stone 2.0. Where do you want to start with the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build for this week?

Or before we get to that, do you want to have like an overarching... Conversation of just like we know like so like Kittle popular cmc yeah do people play them together um you know hearst we talked about earlier definitely going to be popular what else are you seeing obviously Jordan Love and that stack gibbs etc what do you want to talk about here first Yeah. Do you want to spend some time on just San Francisco or should we kind of do that afterwards?

Because there's there's some things about this game that I think are worth really talking through kind of in detail. But that might be like after we've already established how people are playing it and so on and I think that's correct because there's already the initial conversation for me is just like, is this going to be a starting point for a lot of people, even though it's both in the same game? Only because I don't think as many people are going to Purdy.

And then, I mean, some are for sure. He's getting like seven to ten percent in that range is definitely where I put him. But I'm saying it just doesn't feel like the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build because people are going to love and Golden and you could fit Gibbs or whatever you want to put in there. But how many people do you think are going to play these two together in like an uncommon stack?

Like, let's just say it's like a, you know, I'm going to a Bryce Young stack, but I'm going to use these two or something like that. Yeah, that's a good question. Let's let's let's see what we find out. Yeah. So in the in the conditional ownership tool and here I'll bring this up, bring it up. We'll swap it. Yeah, cool. So we've got, uh, here we go.

So I want to put in Christian McCaffrey and then I want to go look at no Purdy and, uh, just for the sake of it, let's also look at no Penix.

We go there we go all right so now with mcafree what do we see from Kittle so it goes down but not a ton so still twenty five percent conditional ownership so yeah it it does look like people are going to be willing to play them together and just say I want all of the San Francisco usage I don't need purdy there I don't need this to be a game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack it can just be McCaffrey and Kittle.

But I would also say, I don't think that that's necessarily one of the first things that people are deciding. I would almost say, let's go back to the hand-built view that you had and let's start to just go piece by piece into what we expect people to do. And to me, that starts with Love, McCaffrey, Hurst, and then probably Marks? I would say either Marks or Braylon Allen.

I think people will save money with one of those spots because right now I've got Marks at thirty one percent in high stakes, thirty percent single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry, and then Braylon Allen, twenty five percent high stakes, twenty four percent single entry. So most lineups are going to include at least one of those guys. What's the latest on Brees Hall now? So questionable for Sunday. Still, I knew that, but what was the, so he was a limited participant at Thursday's practice.

So that's at least somewhat interesting to think about just to take it in here, but let's go back to, let's leave him for now. I also think I want to, I think, what do you have Golden at right now? Hi. So with with love, I think the first one in we want is Golden. And then we want to just kind of take a pause and and now look at, OK, where where are we price wise?

So how much do we have remaining per player? I tried to get Gibbs in there, though, because you've got him going up. I've got him going up. Let's take him out momentarily because there's a point I want to make here first. Let's also take out Kittle for a second. So we have fifty four fifty remaining. Now, there are a couple of ways that people can do this. But notice here, if you try to go for Gibbs, if you try to go for St.

Brown, if you try to go for Christian Watson, you're starting to really shrink the amount remaining per player. So what I expect people to do is I expect the next click here to be OK for my second Packers. I'm choosing Tucker Kraft or for my bring back. I'm choosing Sam LaPorta. I think one of those two guys is going into the vast majority of these Jordan Love lineups just because it's such an obvious way to save money within the stack that everyone wants to play.

It then still gives you access to Christian McCaffrey. This, by the way, is the only thing that I think keeping... Kittle's ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership in check. And consequently, because everyone wants a piece of San Francisco and they either want Kittle or McCaffrey, and we have this one piece that's like keeping Kittle ownership in check at least a little bit, that also explains why McCaffrey's going up so high.

So I always like to kind of explain how I see ownership shaping out the way I do. Um, and I think that this kind of does a good job of that. Now it's very easy for people to go like, all right, well, I'll go Sam LaPorta here. I'll go Tucker Kraft. And then I'll also get Kittle. I think we're also going to see some doubles height end from the same game.

And people will use both craft and LaPorta as like the, the next two pieces of this game stack. And that would open up a bunch, but, but yeah, like point being, um, I think there's a very clear way that people are playing this game, and it's actually trying not to pay upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up as often as possible. It's trying to pay down as often as possible for this game and just kind of stack it in a little bit of a cheaper way. Okay, now we got to do this.

This is why I love this experiment. I'm pulling it back up. I want to see two things right now because this is a disagreement on our part here. I think way more people play Gibbs and Kittle. And I know it's not dollar for dollar, so it is what it is. But my point is we are landing on like wide receiver. We've got more values. We've got a flex. We could use tight end and we've got defense, which could be like a cheap one.

I want to see what you've got for how often are McCaffrey and whoever you think is highest of Kraft or LaPorta or wherever else they go. So McCaffrey. And any of the guys you think would be higher with him. So McCaffrey and who? Who do you think would be the substitute for Kittle? You're saying in those builds where people do sometimes decide, like they're like, I'm only picking one of these guys. Do you think they go down to Kraft? Or do you think with Jordan Love?

Well, it depends. Yeah. So are we talking about just the Love stack specifically? I'm talking, yeah, because I'm talking about the Chark build with Love. I'm still thinking it's not with Kraft, but we'll wait and see. Obviously a bunch more Kraft is in with Jordan Love.

I'm trying to see with the Chark type build here with CMC, craft and love at quarterback so yeah so with with love in when we go to tight end where we're certainly going to see the big jump from craft we also see a pretty nice jump from LaPorta To your point, we still see quite a bit of Kittle. So this is not saying that, all right, craft in is going to mean that there's no Kittle whatsoever.

And actually, only forty eight percent craft is I wouldn't call it surprising, but we have seen certain stacks, you know, in the past few weeks where the tight end gets up to like seventy percent. Seventy five. We saw before. So now what happens when you put Gibbs in to the build, though? Well, so here's this, I think, like is really telling. So Gibbs only goes up a little bit.

And we've also seen that like The, you know, the bring backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back running back has been crazy, crazy high used. And consequently, we also see McCaffrey actually going up. And so this is, this I think is an artifact of like when people play one type of chalk, they're actually more Likely to play the next type of chalk. So someone just going right to love is more Likely to go right to McCaffrey alongside. And so that's, I think a lot of this... Here you're seeing maybe Amon Ross St.

Brown will be the most popular bringback just because he saves money over Gibbs there. So if people are going to just one guy, they're going there. I want to take a look down here. So like... This is also telling, right? Watson goes to thirty five percent conditional ownership. Here's the big guy. So this is why we put Golden in right away. Golden goes to seventy nine percent conditional ownership. This is also interesting.

Jameson Williams under ten percent conditional ownership within the Jordan Love stack and probably the most correlatedCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation of all the lines to the Jordan Love stack. Watson was up here. So Watson thirty five percent. So I'm trying to see if there's anybody at like $4,300 ish. I guess like you could see Godwin just because he's another cheap guy with the Ted Hearst block of like those two together for cheap.

But this projects pretty close to what I'm seeing, obviously, when you start to swap it around or whatever. But I mean, it all starts with Jordan Love. Like you said, this is this is one with Love, Golden, Gibbs. You've got Woods Marks plugged in. You got the two cheap Tampa Bay guys, which will flip these builds to Baker Mayfield later or whatever we want to do there and show how that one looks. This has Kittle because they're not on CMC.

This still gets Watson in with Jordan Love as well. You're still sharing the conditional ownership tool, but I want to point one thing out here. So I went to just San Francisco here. And I think this helps tell the story, right? So Kittle goes down in conditional ownership. You see the negative six point three. McCaffrey goes up in conditional ownership. Why is that? Because the tight ends from that Detroit Green Bay game are pushing Kittle out and leaving room for McCaffrey.

Yeah. Which is what we'll wait and see on. That's what I, I don't fully agree with that because I think at the end of the day, when people are sitting with Jordan Love hand builds and the more we closer we get to Sunday, just wait on the Gibbs stuff. But it's like, how are you leaving out there? There is so much value at wide receiver at tight end, double tight end builds everyone. I don't know that people are going to feel comfortable.

They also, uh, those watching this show know your flow chart. And, you know, we can talk more about that. But when Gibbs is on the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate, the answer is usually to play Gibbs. They don't feel like he's the guy that can let them down like a Bijan last week. And I also think some of the stuff that's interesting is like right now, just at running back alone, what are you showing on Bijan for ownership? Well, so this is really interesting here.

So as soon as I go Love and Hurst, now look at this. Gibbs gets all the way up to thirty seven. So it's like there's this very clear way that people are going to go get to him there. And let's see, what does that do for McCaffrey? So McCaffrey still goes up a little bit. What does that do to tight ends? So now Kraft goes up even higher. LaPorta still goes up. Kittle does not go down as much anymore.

So the Ted Hurst piece really is interesting. So I think in a way we're saying the same thing. You're just talking about a little bit more specific of a build. You're talking about specifically what we have just put on the screen when we've already put Ted Hurst in. We've already put McCaffrey in. Then what happens to Kittle? And so let's go take a look at that.

So if McCaffrey's also in there, like we're still getting, so what this Delta means, so like you can see, twenty-two point nine percent ownership overall for Gibbs, twenty point nine conditional ownership. The reason the Delta is positive is because we've just taken a running back slot away. So the expected ownership percentage, if all of these decisions are independent, has to be lower now.

And so Gibbs is still getting three point more, three point four percentage points, more conditional ownership than what we would expect if all these decisions were independent. So that's why, uh, that's why that Delta is still positive. So, uh, to your point here is like, okay, people, people are recognizing that they can get Gibbs and they're going to try to go get him, but we still see a much larger increase here in conditional ownership from unresting Brown.

So, uh, I, And by the way, let's recognize that I'm already projecting Gibbs at more overall ownership than what most of the fieldThe FieldThe field is everyone else entered in a contest, the group of lineups you are competing against.Before you build, picture the typical lineup in your contest. Then decide on purpose where you'll match it and where you'll step away from it.Read the full definition of The Field is at this point. So I think the conditionals here are, if anything, I think they would be hot on Gibbs, not cold on Gibbs. Yeah. I mean, you're definitely right now higher on Gibbs and I think that's right.

So I'm good with that because at the end of the day, I just think the closer we get to it and the more these values pop up, like again, people were in a bubble. Some people don't even know that, you know, Christian Kirk is $3,600. It might be the guy and that's going to move some stuff around where people that'll change some things, too. Right.

Maybe that's a spot where they're like, hey, I don't need CMC anymore because that guy is going to get a bunch of work in the slot. He's the guy that basically makes it fit. Right. If we go back over. I mean, people can do all kinds of stuff. If you actually look at that, I'm just using them for two seconds here, but if you go down to. $3,600 Christian Kirk.

I mean, you can go right back up to Gibbs and CMC with Kittle in the Miami. You can change this around some further, but I'm just saying like that's that's the whole point of what I'm saying. There's there's lots of different ways that you can go. And so let me ask you this. Are you suggesting that people using love might use him with like just Golden because they feel so good about some of these other plays on the slate?

Or are you saying that like, OK, if they're not going to the tight end, that means they're going to go get Christian Watson. They're going to go get, you know, I'm on Ross St. Brown and play it that way instead. Yeah. I think they're going to, I think it's going to, you'll see some love Golden Gibbs, some love Golden almond raw. And then I think you'll still see Watson obviously craft in those lineups for sure. When it gets to doubles is possible.

I'm just saying, I don't, I don't think it's the chalk double. Like, I don't think it's the chalk lineup is a double there unless it was something else. I think Kittle still stays in. Maybe there's a too tight end version of it that people like, but for me, I think it's going to look more like this. Got it. Yeah, so this is one of the places where I do think you and I disagree a little bit, which is great. I wish we disagreed more.

We just happen to think through a lot of the slides very similarly. But yeah, I very much expect a lot of... A lot of correlation in the chalk build this week because you have this game that like, I think everyone recognizes if this game hits its ceiling, you're going to need many, many pieces from it.

You're not going to be able to get away with just love and Golden when everybody else also has craft or also has Watson and they have a bring back so on and so forth. So, uh, I, I feel pretty strongly that the, the chalk build, the chalk stack here is Watson Golden, probably one more pay up of, Uh, or sorry, love Golden. And then one more pay up of either, uh, Watson Gibbs, St. Brown, and then one of the tight ends.

And I also wouldn't, uh, wouldn't argue with the chalk builds specifically being love Golden, both tight ends from the game and, uh, and just doing it from there. Cause then you have like all the money in the world to play with, uh, to go pay up elsewhere.

Yeah, I think a lot of the finality to it all for me, and then we'll get into how we can leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage it, is that I think the chalk build is just love Golden Gibbs with all the other shit we talked about. Kittles, the Hursts at $3,000, the Woods Marks at $5,600, whatever D version, whether it's we can tell you right now, we know all this stuff. So I love this slate. It's Houston. When you go up high, it's Tennessee and it's.

The Jets, right? So those are the main three. Obviously, the other side of that game with the Browns is a possibility, but perfect segue, Flickle, right there to go to this. Last week in the Ship It Nation Discord, it was quite fun, actually. We had a battle of, do you want to build Cam Ward lineups and stack it up and run it back?

Or do you want to build, it was almost the same price, by the way, for like triples with a run, like doubles with a run back, sorry, like, you know, three ones of Ward, Robinson,

Tate and justin or sorry justin doesn't say justin Thomas golf streets Jonathan Taylor different jt but then the other side of it was you could play um Watson Concepcion Boston and Derrick Henry idea in both games was like no one's really on henry or jt they speed up the game the stack has to come back the other way the argument was that Watson runs more And then the argument on the other side was like, yeah, but you know, Ward, if he does have a good game and it's like, this would be the one chance to have it.

And you've got Tate already who is so good. It worked out for, for Tate specifically. I don't know. I mean, obviously it worked out a lot of different ways. Tennessee D was the answer in, in the end. And you know, Cleveland situation, all that. But the funny part is this week they play each other. Yes. So they do.

This game is something else, but I don't know where else you want to go, but I was just going to say to start there for a second, like the battle of the back and forth that it's really, most people are on those defenses. You could play the stacks against it. I think we'll get to that later too.

Going back to these defenses, you could play the JJ McCarthy stacks this week against the popular Houston defense and still be able to use a popular Woods Marks. Like there's a few different ways that you can go this week. Where do you want to start with leveraging the chalk build? If you want to start with like game theory and the ideas first, the good news. And like I said earlier, just, you know, quickly is that I like that. We know a lot of stuff, right?

You usually can say like ownership's off a little this way as I'm sure that's always going to happen, but we kind of know a lot about what's going to happen this week for the common build and how to leverage it and ways to go about it. So give me your thoughts here where you want to start and then we'll get right into all these topics.

I think the first thing we want to decide is when we're deviating, especially if we're deviating through a stack, do we want to do so by paying up or paying down for that stack? When we're deviating, do you want to pay upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up or pay down? Well, my notes here just say it again, like this is going to be a unique week, but we know almost all the lineups allow you to fit the pay up running backs.

So for me, when I'm looking to do it, like you talk about it, like inverse correlateCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation, like how we know how people are playing, but we're just going to play in a different way, but not stupid. Like a quick example, and again, who knows, this morning is Lamar, fifty-fifty. I'm really starting to think they don't play him, just like maybe it's all talk, and I don't know what's going on, but it's just the way it looks.

But the point being, I don't think I'll really care, and I'll probably still play like a Burrow, Chase, Higgins, maybe Zay, or Andrews, or something like that, and just hope that it works out, because that would force you out of the ability to get to bijan cmc gibbs all together and I'm not saying everyone's playing all three of them but I'm sure we showed you earlier how you can easily play gibbs we showed even gibbs and cmc you can play cmc bijan whatever you want to you'll talk about there so I'd be more Likely to find a stack that involves these expensive receivers uh you know it's it's not quite expensive but a little bit but like uh the cover boy today goff almond rod jamo Now what?

Anything else you want to put in that game? My point being, I'd be much more Likely to skip over building just all the cheap wide receiver guys that make it work. Yeah, I think I'm with you there. And I also think like... Part of my answer is like, you can do it either way.

So, uh, because you can do it either way, I think like one of the things we want to start with is just, okay, well let's, let's look at what a, an expensive stack looks like. And so, uh, they're like, I think let's go, let's go CJ Straub. Let's, Uh, let's try to see just what, what a Stroud, Nico Collins, Malik Nabers kind of foundation looks like. Uh, as you know, like I'm always going to want to add another one.

So I think there are, there are multiple options. Like I, I think the most obvious is you also use Likely as a bring backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back and you just hope for a game scriptGame ScriptGame script is how a game's score and time remaining influence its pace, play choices and player opportunities. In football, teams protecting a lead often run more, while teams chasing a deficit often pass more.Before locking a lineup, ask who keeps playing if your expected script reverses. Check passing-down roles and backup rotations instead of assuming a team's leading rusher handles every situation.Read the full definition of Game Script a lot like last week's where there's just so much pass volume from New York because Houston jumps out to a lead. And if Houston has jumped out to a lead, that means CJ Stroud has hopefully thrown a number of touchdowns and therefore you want Stroud instead of McCarthy.

So like this to me, I think is a really strong starting point. You're also leveraging all of the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk tight ends with a tight end who has been outstanding of late in Isaiah Likely.

So I really like this show and um you know there are a lot of ways you can go from here you can play some of the running back chalk you can continue to get different because like this to me is as high probability of a stack as that Green Bay Detroit game and uh we'll talk a little bit more there about like why I think that game might fail but um this this is I think a really strong start and like you don't With a start like this, you don't need to feel like, okay, I'm already off the board.

I'm already making low probability bets, so I better surround it with chalk. You absolutely can because this is different enough, but it's also, I think, quite Likely to succeed. So if you want to make some other high upside bets within the lineup, I think you can. Yeah, this lineup is triple leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage. So I talk about this sometimes. It's the triple C as well. It's the contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian correlatedCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation construction.

And the reason I say that is because it's contrarian, which I'll get to with the triple leverage in a second. It's very correlated, like can't get much more correlated than this. And it's a roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Read the full definition of Roster Construction. So the composition, construction, whatever you want to use. But the reason it's triple leverage is what you talked about. Isaiah Likely at tight end versus the most popular tight ends in that range. It's the guy that was just chalk last week, still came through his chalk.

Not much else has changed. If anything, the guy that got him the ball at the end, JJ McCarthy is now starting. So like that could make sense, but it's leveraging the tight end chalk. Secondly, it's got Stroud and Nico Collins. By the way, you could put Woods Marks into this. Alex has done extensive research from last season. Not enough people are playing the quarterback with the running back.

And when you're already this unique, if you just think Woods Marks is a great option, you could still fit him into this. But we are leveraging Woods Marks in the current shell. Second piece of leverage, right? We're leveraging Woods Marks ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership and saying it's going to be the passing attack instead.

And then third, we're leveraging the common build because when you looked at it earlier and we talked, now look, I know some people are going to look at this shell and immediately go plug in Hurst and say, all right, now I can get all those top running backs. Like Alex said, fine. But in the current state and the current shell, way less lineups will have two pay upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up wide receivers and a pay up quarterback.

It's not really a pay up quarterback, but the idea of the stack that pays up with him And it could end up being a more balanced buildBalanced BuildA balanced build spreads salary fairly evenly across a lineup, using mostly mid-priced players instead of a few stars and several minimum-salary players.Go balanced when the slate lacks trustworthy cheap plays. Forcing stars and scrubs without real value just fills your lineup with players who have no role.Read the full definition of Balanced Build, et cetera, et cetera. So however you want to fit that last one in, but from a construction piece, it's a leverage piece there where you're not like, again, so many people like will go off the page.

Like, well, if everyone's going to do this, I'm just going back to the well with Penix and London and pits and all this stuff could work. I'm just saying like the idea of like, I could also just do this and I feel way better about it. And it still gets me all the stuff that I'm interested in. And those three angles of attack there.

So I really like, This one that you brought up, and I think we added some other points to it that people could find out and go with as well. Anything else on this one? If not, I guess my question would be, let's say this is where we stand for a second before we look. We're going to look at other game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack for you guys. There's definitely some ones I want to talk about here.

But when you do this and you got $5,000 left per player, I guess people immediately think, oh, yeah, but what about that Green Bay-Detroit game? How do I handle that? So if I'm asking you, and people care about your opinion more than probably others, that's kind of the thought here. What are you thinking here about, okay, but I don't have Green Bay-Detroit? How does that register in your brain?

Yeah, that's the exact next question to answer, I think, because if this stack is going to win you all of the money, It's not just that you need this stack to do well, but you also then need the Detroit Green Bay stack to not go off in addition to this one. And so how do you tell the story of that happening? Well, I think there are a couple of ways you can do that.

The first is like, let's just recognize that, hey, you know what? This Green Bay defense has been quite good this year in one specific way. They have been great against the pass. They have been very bad against the run. And so like one potential, you know, run out for this game is, uh, Well, Detroit just runs instead. And so I think this is absolutely a spot where you can just use Gibbs. You could even go Gibbs and the Detroit defense.

I think maybe even the better option is to say, well, if Gibbs goes off, that doesn't necessarily prevent the Green Bay side from going off. It can help slow the game down, especially if, you know, if, if he does everything on the ground, but like what if Gibbs breaks a six, the order, okay, well that actually helped the Green Bay, you know, the Green Bay offense.

What if Gibbs gets there because he catches eight balls because Detroit is playing catch up and that's the best they can do. Well, that's also telling the story of Green Bay succeeding. So just using Gibbs doesn't necessarily leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage this game in any way, shape or form. Using Josh Jacobs absolutely leverages this game because if Josh Jacobs is the one succeeding, he's not breaking off explosives. He's catching passes when Jordan Love is forced to check down instead of throw the ball deep the way he wants to.

He's scoring by scoring touchdowns, which takes touchdowns away from Jordan Love and his pass catchers. And if you get a scenario where the Green Bay defense looks really good, just like they did against Dallas last week, Now Green Bay's offense is in a game scriptGame ScriptGame script is how a game's score and time remaining influence its pace, play choices and player opportunities. In football, teams protecting a lead often run more, while teams chasing a deficit often pass more.Before locking a lineup, ask who keeps playing if your expected script reverses. Check passing-down roles and backup rotations instead of assuming a team's leading rusher handles every situation.Read the full definition of Game Script where they're not even trying to be aggressive. They're trying to slow things down. The Detroit guys are failing on the other side of the ball.

So I think the ultimate leverage from this game is probably doing something like Josh Jacobs plus the Green Bay DSTDefense/Special Teams (DST)Defense/Special Teams (DST) is a roster selection representing one NFL team's combined defense and special teams, rather than an individual player. It earns fantasy points through sacks, takeaways, defensive and return touchdowns, and other plays, with adjustments for points allowed.Compare what a DST upgrade costs elsewhere in your lineup. If paying more forces you off an important offensive role, check whether a cheaper defense offers a credible path through sacks and turnovers.Read the full definition of Defense/Special Teams, and that would be, I think, a really good thing to plug in next to this lineup. Man, I pulled up something else because we're going to go there in a second, but somebody did say it earlier. Where was it? In the chat. Let me find it here. Appreciate all the engagement here. If you guys do us a favor, hit the thumbs up.

Make sure you subscribe to the channel. So unless Josh Jacobs says people are forgetting this guy's coming back. I mean, if he who knows what it's actually going to be like. I'm just saying if it was somehow Josh Jacobs of before and an impossible spot here in this Green Bay defense. That's why it's disgusting. And that's what I'm going to look up quickly. People don't like the Detroit defense because we're targeting them. Right. They're horrible.

What is jameer gibbs with Tennessee defense for a second I want to see conditional ownership on jameer gibbs I want to see two conditional ownerships with jameer gibbs in so you can try them both first do the Titans what do we see oh wait you want do you want gibbs in or do you want the Titans in no I want gibbs and you got it right we're seeing two things with gibbs in one is the Titans are massive pretty neutral I would say, but over every other D, it's nuts.

And then the answer to my point, it's all right there in front of us. So I love this thing. Nineteen percent rounding up. Three percent with the Lions. By the way, they're a hundred dollars less and would be exactly how you leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage if you're not on love and Golden and craft and everything in this game. And even if I think this is right, our guy, the first prophet always comes in. Says because the Lions game failed a couple of weeks, people do remember this stuff.

And like, well, I just needed Gibbs. My point from earlier in the show, why I think Gibbs will pick up more steam. I think also my initial stuff and even your stuff, I think you'll see by Sunday. I'm not, you know, you're the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership guy, not me. I'm not like, I got some crystal ball, but- I think people aren't going to be as happy with Bijan either at twenty eight.

You know, I mean, like, I don't know if they'll actually fully get there to that because he's the opposite side of CMC. Most people would prefer CMC. The what's keeping him bolstered up right now, in my opinion, is that you've got the Kittle ownership and that's like, oh, I need to have a secondary stackMini-StackIn NFL DFS, a mini-stack usually pairs two players from the same game without either team's quarterback. Often a secondary group beside your main quarterback stack, it can pair a running back with an opposing receiver.Before locking a pair, describe how both players reach big scores together. Then ask whether that outcome would make an omitted quarterback or teammate difficult to beat.Read the full definition of Mini-Stack. We got to do that. You must do it. So I think this could be a spot.

But even if people do go this route with Gibbs, last time Alex's call was you could play the Detroit D with him. It worked out till like super late in the game. I mean, it was fine. It held them down. It still worked, but it wasn't great the way it could have been. Was it a ceilingCeilingCeiling is the high end of a player's or lineup's realistic range of fantasy scores. It describes a big performance that could happen when things go well, not the expected score or an absolute maximum.Describe what must happen for each player to have a huge game. Then check whether those conditions help or hurt the other players in your lineup.Read the full definition of Ceiling performance? But that's not what you were saying. You were also saying how it can give you composition that gets you different based on how the game could fail.

I think even if people do this to the first profits point, you would still be able to like, no one's going to have Detroit defense in there. And there are a hundred bucks less than the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk. We just saw almost everyone's going to have Titans in that spot. Okay. Now, while you've got it up, I also want to see just how crazy this is from our point earlier, like the talking about playing the cheap chalk, just to make everything work.

How much in Jameer Gibbs lineups is Hearst? It's like you read my mind. You're already literally clicking wide receiver and scrolling down. Fifty four and a half conditional. What did I just? Oh, I put him in. You put him in. That's fine. Fifty four and a half conditional. Remember last year, because not everybody, some people are watching this for the first time and we appreciate you, but just noting it like we've talked about this. We've been doing this for a while.

We do it for PGA, do it for NFL. This is where this really came to fruition for you to create this tool at BlickAnalytics.com. But if you think about it, Isn't this exactly what you've talked about forever and what we talked about at the top of this show of the secondary stack? It's not a secondary stack. It's not in the same game. That's why conditional ownership is different. But it's like the minute people are clicking Gibbs, they're clicking Hurst. Or if they've got...

It's really the other way, probably. They're clicking Hurst because he's so cheap. I'm like, well, now I can fit Gibbs. And that's why I keep saying I think Gibbs gets boosted up. Obviously, we knew they would be popular together. That's not rocket science. Nothing really is, by the way. But just noting it... It's crazy, though, to see. That is literally just people saying, it might not even be him. It might be Tez Johnson that steps into the Igbuka spot and the role.

A lot of people actually think that. What's Tez Johnson? Five percent. One-tenth of the Ted Hurst. And he's, what, two hundred bucks more? You can find two hundred bucks. We just found you a hundred, by the way, with the Lions-D over the Titans in the Gibbs lineup. So if you're doing all this together, the point is the money's sitting right there. So... You know, this is another one that comes up. I'll go back now. I appreciate you bringing that up.

That's, you know, obviously I wanted to bring it up, but our guy Jay Steele, awesome, always supporting. We really appreciate you says, okay, I don't understand something. Gibbs at his salary would quote unquote fail if he scored thirty points. But isn't it Likely that he would still be RB one at the at that number and you would still need him? So then did he really fail? How do you answer this one? Yeah, I would say that he at thirty points is absolutely not failing for him.

So one way you can think about it is everything is kind of additive. What what like how how many points above his expectation would that be? Well, Gibbs is projected. I have met twenty six point nine DraftKings points. So like thirty is still outscoring his expectation by twenty. A little over three points. At certain other positions, that's Woods Marks getting to twenty, that's Bucky Irving getting to twenty, that's Kyron Williams getting to twenty-two or twenty-three, things of that nature.

I don't think that him getting thirty would be a failure in any way. Now, it's not going to help you separate by any means. If you're trying to get Gibbs to be a separator for you, you probably need the forty point performance. But like I've gotten with a forty one point six ceiling and a forty seven point nine super ceiling.

I think if I recall correctly, the let's see, the ceiling is the average of the players top twenty five percent simulated scores and the super ceilings, the average of the top of the players, top ten percent simulated scores. So he's he's in a tier of his own from a ceiling perspective. And that's that's I think what you're paying for if you go there. Yeah, and you're hoping for that too.

It's like, this reminds me a little bit of, like I said, just said it earlier, so I might as well go there, but we've done the golf show for quite some time for PGADFS. Like, well, Scott at that price has to win. Absolutely not. Like it's a complete myth. We've looked it up a billion times. It's, it all depends on what else everybody does. Last week, you could have said this about Bijan.

I honestly don't know if Bijan got to like twenty five last week, if it still would have been needed. You still had Hubbard at that number. You had guys like Corum getting fourteen or fifteen. You had you had other ways that you could have got there last week. So you just never know. It's how the rest of the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate plays out. But when you're building, you're building for the chance to win a tournament.

So it's like you can't just say if he gets thirty, that's good enough and move on. You can't just say at $9,800 he needs four X his salary or it's a bust. Some, I mean, we saw it last year in Milly makers, people would play Gino Smith. I always use this one, but it's a good one. Gino Smith, Trey Tucker, Jacobs Myers, and Bowers one week. It was extremely affordable across the board.

Myers was the wide receiver one and only got nine points. Bowers was the tight end one and only got nine points, but Trey Tucker got you a not necessarily as just the one piece. Or if those guys don't get me for, they only got you one point five X or one point two five X. But thankfully, Trey Tucker got you twelve X or whatever the hell it worked out to at his cheap price tag.

So you can make it up in other spots and that sort of thing. Disagree on this. Well, we are definitely gonna have the Puka conversation, but nobody wants these guys. No, that's what we're talking about. We just showed you the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build, all the different builds. Like yes, Jefferson in a Kyler build will be popular. Yes, London could still get something.

But I mean, as far as like these guys versus the running backs at the same price points, way more people are going to the running backs. And it's because we have the cheap chalk we talked about with Hearst and guys like that, that we'll get to. So definitely think people are going to be stacking still. And I think, you know, when you get to the Green Bay Detroit game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack, I think I, like I said it earlier, I like the cover boy.

I like going with the golf almond rod JMO. Like you talked about earlier, things like that as a way to leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage it and just get different. And then you can still get away with, you know, not being on Gibbs, maybe skipping out on Golden. If you want, I think like a guy like, um, you know, Watson or craft or whatever you want to go there could really speed that game up and make it work. So, um, What else?

What else do we got to talk about here? Puka is a conversation in itself. You said the San Francisco conversation further. So go ahead. I want to talk about San Francisco before we talk about Puka because I think it kind of sets the stage for the Puka conversation. Is there anything more on stacks that you want to talk through? Any other stacks you want to talk through? There's one other one, but it's going to be my leverage lane.

Yeah, we don't need to talk about that one then, but I was going to say... What did we talk about earlier? The...

Cleveland Tennessee game because of uh you know the Watson versus ward the the chat the the ship at Discord was wanting to have that conversation because they they know that you liked ward last week and now Watson what like nobody won by the way spoiler the the bottom line of that game or the spoiler to it all was that that the answer was nobody won they're both losers but any any thoughts on that and then I do have one more I want to talk about quickly Yeah, I mean, the Cleveland side is, I think, really interesting because you have a Cleveland offense who's been near the top in pass rate over expectation, more so just because they can't run the ball than anything else.

But then you also have them matched up with a Tennessee defense that's bottom three in pass DVOA. So you get a team that's going to throw the ball a lot. You get them facing a defense that doesn't defend the pass well and, like, Cleveland offense is their passing game. Good. No, but they've still been plus seven percent past DV away. So like they're capable, they should be throwing a lot.

And you get Denzel Boston, who's let's see, fourth in the percent of his team's air yards. The point six, two weighted opportunity rating, sixteen point one yard average at the target. That's really interesting. You get KC Concepcion, who's showing like twenty two ish percent target shareTarget ShareTarget share is the percentage of a team's targets (passes thrown toward an intended receiver) that go to one player. A receiver who sees 8 of his team's 32 targets has a 25 percent target share.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Read the full definition of Target Share. A lot of stuff designed for him. So you have like the floor of, you know, these design targets are going to him. And then it's just can he create a few extra splash plays on top of that?

So there's a lot I like on that side of the ball. And then you flip it around. You get a Cleveland defense that's playing a lot of single high.

And you get Carnell Tate who's number one in the NFL in the percentage of his team's air arts the only guy with over fifty percent of his team's air yards at fifty point eight percent and like who's behind him there it's jsn London Boston olave Mike Evans t Higgins Parker Washington Matthew Golden Garrett Wilson cd lamb as the top eleven like Those are the names that he's not just up with, but he's literally leading.

The downside is the catchable air yards for both of these guys are under fifty percent. You compare that to JSN at eighty three percent. London, sixty three percent. Olave and Evans, sixty five and sixty six. So, like, yeah, the downside is very clear and obvious. They don't have good quarterbacks and they're not as good as the other guys who are who are dominating the quarterbacks. Share of air yards like this.

But at the same time, it's like, yeah, but that's why these guys are in the $5,000's and not $7,000 $8,000 like these other guys. So there's a lot of upside through this game. And the nice thing about these wide receivers, as we have mentioned a couple of times now over the last few weeks is like when they hit, that in and of itself is pretty much bringing the quarterback with them.

It's not bringing the quarterback with them to a score that you need to have or that's going to help you separate, but it's bringing them to a score that is absolutely good enough such that the savings you just provided can go get the actual separators in your lineup and they can go win you the thing. Right. And so the answer to this is no. Savion Williams is not a lock. We can say that much. I mean, Profit's going back and forth here.

Obviously, yeah, if you're playing five or six pieces from this game, that's definitely a way in the Green Bay-Detroit game to get unique. I've been saying it all show, like if you go the golf side, I can go golf, Almonra, Jamo, Kraft and somebody else. You know what I mean? That's how you can get different.

If you want to put Josh Jacobs into the stack and run at the other side where most people are going Love, Golden, and somebody else, Watson or Kraft with Gibbs, you can flip it and go Goff, Amonra, Jamo with Josh Jacobs. And the money that you pick up there now actually allows you so you might not have to punt to these cheap guys and all that type of stuff.

But to your point earlier, you're getting ten to fifteen percent on a lot of those high-end wide receivers this week because people just have no need to go there or feel as though they have no need to go there. The one thing that did come up, though, and I think it's important to talk about quickly is just the Baker side of this game, because, um, you know, we have Tet and Coker who people like Hubbard, by the way, has still been just fine.

I know. Um, what's his, who came back last week? ETN Trevor. Yeah. Yeah. It's like whatever, like that, it slightly matters for projectionsProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections and things, of course, but I'm saying like at the end of the day, it really mattered as much for him. I think Dylan is also back this week, but yeah, Hubbard should still get the majority of the work. Yeah, and he's not even the guy I think most people are thinking about here or their favorite in this spot.

But just to note it, because you're already pretty much different when you're stacking. Let's say you're going Bryce Young with Tet, Coker, and Hurst. Well, at least that could be a little, I don't know how often, again, that'll be popular if people are doing it. But I'm saying overall, you can probably get away with that, especially in a smaller field or something like that. But the Baker side is interesting. The chat asked about Godwin as well.

So what's your thoughts here on like Baker, Godwin? Hearst, you know, pick one, Tet, Coker. We've been stacking all year, obviously running these three ones and things like that. But what's your thoughts on that? It's definitely something that I want to look into. I think from a GPPGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Read the full definition of GPP score perspective, Baker's among the worst and Hurst is among the worst, but... Hurst is the worst! Jeez, that's going to be going back to hot people. It's a very unique thought.

Now, I have Baker projected at like eight percent, so I think that's more than most, but it's not like he's going to steam out of this world or anything. If I... I will say this. If you play it, I think the worst way to play it is with Kate Otton. The best way to play it is just go with both receivers. Go Hurst and Tez Johnson because that's where the explosives are going to lie if they lie anywhere. Or you could even triple.

You could throw Bucky or Otton in there, but I think you want both receivers, particularly Tez Johnson because Tez is the most Likely guy to get the big play. That's something that I want to sim because... If you're doing that, you're pretty much doing that so you can go get more studs than anybody else can. That's so you can get both Gibbs and McAfee or both Gibbs and Bajon Robinson and Brock Bowers or a stud receiver, so on and so forth.

If that is actually something that is solid and smart and not just like, oh, this looks fun on paper, it's hard for me to kind of think that through myself because I essentially like what that is doing is sure you have a lot of correlationCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation there but the way you're trying to separate from the field is by making like four independent bets with gibbs bajon Ja'Marr Chase whoever else uh you know whatever studs you're using you're making independent bets that all those studs have ceilingCeilingCeiling is the high end of a player's or lineup's realistic range of fantasy scores. It describes a big performance that could happen when things go well, not the expected score or an absolute maximum.Describe what must happen for each player to have a huge game. Then check whether those conditions help or hurt the other players in your lineup.Read the full definition of Ceiling games because otherwise someone else has a decent chance of having the same combination of of the ceilings if like only two of those four go off and so Um, that's something I want to sim to get a better sense of like, is this actually smarter?

Is this just, uh, you know, just chasing ceiling games at a rate that is, is unlikely to actually hit. So, um, this is another take I've got for sure that Baker's ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership is definitely going up when we get closer to Sunday. Cause again, once, but to Alex's point, that's what I, again, this is classic, not showdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Read the full definition of Showdown, but it's like, it reminds you, I got a couple, you know, tangents quickly.

It reminds you in showdown when people were like, Oh man, sav Williams is two hundred bucks let me just put him in the captain so I can fit everybody that you know the best guys on the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate like it's horrible you yes it makes it work and I mean if you're in a ten man maybe because maybe but then honestly anything that can flip he's two hundred bucks can just put him in the flex and put the guy that actually scores all the points with the raw score up top so to me it's very rare is that a good idea in this case even when you go that route I'd want like a I'd want them all if I was doing it.

I want like, or at least the majority. I want like Baker, Godwin, Tez, Otton, or Hurst, or whatever you choose. Like I want that. I want Tet on the other side and then see where I land as opposed to like most people are just going to pick Baker, Hurst. Coker or something. And then they'd be like, Oh, I can get Bijan. I can get CMC. I can get Kittle. I can get that. You got all the same stuff, just in a slightly different way.

You're not again in classic, less Likely to be duped, but we've talked about this a billion times where it's like, it's you're backing yourself into a very tight corner where you really have to thread the needle to get out of that corner. It's going to be, you know, take a lot more luck than you would think in that position. Then you should have to put yourself in. The second one was From our guy, Sully.

We had a good talk about this pre-show and another golf analogy for those, but it really works in this case. I think enough people understand the concept, even if they don't play PGA DFS. JJ, this guy, JJ McCarthy's put what? I think it was two forty three in the fourth quarter yards. Something insane like that. We watched the tape. Everything looked good. People saw it. It reminds me of.

In PGA DFS, when somebody gains five strokes with the putter in round two or round three, and they're like, well, no way to play him in the next round. He's not going to do that again. You're probably right. It's very unlikely someone's going to gain five strokes again with the putter the next round. But if the ball striking and the other stuff was still good and all that's there, it's like, what if he only gains one and a half and everything's still good?

He probably, and his price, by the way, is still baked in. He's still affordable. So it's like, you can still use him. And honestly, some people are moving away because it won't happen again. I'm not excited. Like, listen, JJ McCarthy might throw for two fifty total this Sunday, but he might also run one into the goal line and hit Nabers and Likely for a ton of catches because it's a completely tight offense.

And by the way, it's going up against a very popular defense. And when people are paying upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up this week, they're going to the Texans. It's a way that you could still use Woods Marks, who's popular and say, OK, I'm going to build around that. It's a it's a way you could build differently and fade the Houston D fade Woods Marks. Play JJ, Nabers, Nico, and Likely.

It's just a flip of the shell we had on the screen earlier and you can still play it differently. So that is a way on this slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate that you can play to get different and be able to do it. So I definitely think, and we know Stroud on the other side of that game is good enough. We talked about a shell with him earlier. We know he's good enough to keep this game moving back and forth. It's just really what does JJ McCarthy do?

But for people to say like, Well, he ain't throwing for two forty three in a quarter again. Great. Yeah, that's probably not rocket science. Go look at his over under for the whole game this week. It's like that's the whole point. But he could still have a good game and enough and bring the guys along because it's condensed there and then make it work for the Woods Marks or the Collins or something like that that makes everything else move.

So there's definitely opportunity when there's something like that on a slate like this. Anything else you want to talk about there? Yeah, my only hesitation is like he actually looked kind of bad. I know the numbers looked good, but he had a thirteen percent charted interception Worthy rate by by FTN that game. So for context, James Winston is at three point eight percent on the season. He was at thirteen percent last game.

He really, really benefited from a game scriptGame ScriptGame script is how a game's score and time remaining influence its pace, play choices and player opportunities. In football, teams protecting a lead often run more, while teams chasing a deficit often pass more.Before locking a lineup, ask who keeps playing if your expected script reverses. Check passing-down roles and backup rotations instead of assuming a team's leading rusher handles every situation.Read the full definition of Game Script where like. Yeah, there's no downside whatsoever to what you do. Just go chuck it as much as you can and see what happens. It also happened to be against one of the worst pass defenses in the league in an up-tempo environment. This is a totally different spot for him.

As we built earlier on the Houston bill, I do think McCarthy stuff is viable, but I also think if you're playing McCarthy stuff, you shouldn't be playing it because you thought he looked good last week. You should be playing it because this is a team that they're really, really unlikely to be able to get anything going on the ground. They're Likely to be trailing. You're going to get a game script that is probably conducive of a lot of pass volume.

And most importantly, when they have any modicum of success through the air, you know it's going to one of two guys for the most part in Nabers and Likely. So that's, I think, the argument. It's not that, hey, he looked good last week, so I want to jump back in because it's just a totally, totally different environment for his likelihood of success. And that my friends is why the Texans defense are popular. It was also a very good reason for that without saying it outright.

And the second part of it is also why I like the Stroud side side of that build a lot more, even in what we've talked about a ton and your data shown where it's like a Stroud Nico with two Giants. It's saying like, look, McCarthy might throw some picks. It's fine. Like as long as he can just keep it moving so that Stroud stuff works and then it goes back and forth. At least we know it's condensed on that side.

But also those two guys alone, like Likely and Nabers could catch twenty balls and you still don't need. Like total combined, twenty balls, ten each, and you still don't need McCarthy because it's just yardage only for him there or something like that. It's just a lot of catches and points that way. But Stroud and Collins have a two touchdown game with the three hundred yard bonus, hundred yard bonus, et cetera, et cetera. So there's lots of ways that you can do that there.

All right. Anything else I'm thinking about there that we can talk about Ravens Bengals. Last one I had in mind, just anything to go to there. Yeah. I mean, I like chase. I like Higgins. I like flowers. I think we really need the, the Lamar news before we can make any, any decisions there. I will say if Lamar plays number one, I think that means that he's pretty much fully healthy.

It very much seems like he, uh, he will not play if, if he's not fully healthy. And if he is playing, we should have interest there because that game environment suddenly becomes one of the better ones. The last thing I think is, I think it's worth talking about how that Detroit-Green Bay game fails just a little bit more. Already kind of mentioned a little bit in the sense that the Green Bay pass defense is quite good.

They have the second best pass DVOA on the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate, only a little bit behind Minnesota's defense. So you already have that path. But to me, it's more about the fact that The way Green Bay is succeeding is actually a similar route to how Minnesota is succeeding, where they're showing a ton of pressure. Now, they're not sending that pressure anywhere near as often as Flores, but they're making it really hard to know where the pressure is coming from. Sometimes they're dropping, sometimes they're pressuring.

And they're creating a really nice pressure rate from that. And Goff has been one of the most... Pressure sensitive quarterbacks in the league for years now. So I do think there's like a very clear path to how Detroit fails.

There's not as clear of a path to how Green Bay fails, which is why I do think like the only way the Green Bay passing stuff does fail is if, uh, if Branch returning for Detroit actually really helps Detroit in the explosives department that they're giving up because that's that's been like the at least one of the biggest issues for them is that they just give up a lot of explosives and obviously explosives create fantasy production that's where I think Branch can maybe make the biggest impact other than that like you're just not getting a huge impact from from somebody who plays his position so There's that.

And then I think it's just game scriptGame ScriptGame script is how a game's score and time remaining influence its pace, play choices and player opportunities. In football, teams protecting a lead often run more, while teams chasing a deficit often pass more.Before locking a lineup, ask who keeps playing if your expected script reverses. Check passing-down roles and backup rotations instead of assuming a team's leading rusher handles every situation.Read the full definition of Game Script. It's just what does the Green Bay offense want to do? If the Green Bay defense is really succeeding, then the job of the Green Bay offense is not to go create explosives. It's let's just preserve this advantage. Maybe they can find a little bit more success on the ground with Jacobs. So I thought that was kind of just necessarily talked through because it's. This is obviously a really important game to get right.

And one of the reasons why it's so important to get this game right is because unlike the last few weeks, like this time around, if this game succeeds, it's going to be really, really difficult to beat the Green Bay Detroit lineups because I think it's very unlikely that all of the pieces that people are going to be using in order to fit this game fail. It's like they're much better cheap chalk pieces than what we've seen.

So if this game hits, you probably need it. Yeah. And I think it's always interesting just like from a projection standpoint, like I would say, like start with a really good set of projectionsProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections, ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership, and then you can work from there. But from like a situational factor of this Josh Jacobs thing you've brought up and the chat brought it up and it's been mentioned enough. I think just people would say there's no way it can happen, but it's like, it's a three point spread, huge total.

It's not like the, again, lines pasty.

Horrible not like the rush d's been phenomenal or something though it's yeah it's been better than their pasty but it's just the game script and the game flow and how it goes right if if the Packers are up early and often and running and you get down there and it ends up being like welcome back or we got to get Jacobs back in the mix or whatever that looks like well then Lions are going to be forced to pass doesn't mean gibbs is out of the game flow it's gibbs he's going to still be in there but now you can start to see where guys like amenra Jameson Williams

LaPorta just start picking it up and chopping it up on the back, you know, on that side and get one of those really big back and forth games. So yeah, I like that quite a bit. I don't think there's too much else. Like I said, waiting on the Lamar news, the chat talked about it. We got to wait and see on that.

The interesting thing about the Ravens, obviously needing any, all the wins they can get, especially in one like this, it's an AFC North battle. You're going to want to pick up that win. Against the Bengals, but they also play the Bills next week and Josh Allen. And so, you know, it's tough to say what they're going to do with Lamar as of this morning. It says he's fifty fifty was trending in the right way, but we'll have to see.

But yeah, lots of different ways you can go on this slate. Let's have the Puka conversation. Then we'll have the forty Niners conversation. We'll see if there's any other questions along the way and then we can wrap up unless you got anything else you want to add. Yeah, I think it makes a little bit more sense to start with the San Francisco conversation because I've got some data for you guys. And specifically, it's the on-off splits for Mike Evans.

And if you just look at full drives outside of blowouts, so outside of garbage time, essentially, Mike Evans on the field versus Mike Evans off the field last three years, his teams have performed well. Wow, that's nice from Yobi Trice there. So wait, boys, it's downhill since week one. We'll get that in a sec. You go ahead. Yobi Trice is the man. We'll hook him up in a second. Let's go. This bright orange thing just showed up on my screen.

It was distracting, but in a very good way. So... With Mike Evans on the field versus Mike Evans off the field, we're talking about like a point three, one, um, EPA per play difference for context of how large that is. That is the San Francisco offense this year. Number one in EPA per play. Number one in DVO way versus the Cleveland offense this year.

That's how large that drop is from Mike Evans on the field to Mike Evans off the field point being that, Do we know that the volume is going to be nice for McCaffrey and Kittle? Yeah, it absolutely should be. Do we know that San Francisco is going to be able to turn that volume into success?

My argument is no, we absolutely do not, because even though I have more faith in the San Francisco offense and Tyler Shanahan to have success without Mike Evans than I did the Baker Mayfield Burks, for example, We're still seeing the same thing. Think about how different that San Francisco offense looked in the second half last week compared to the first half. It's really, really hard to succeed without your alpha wide receiver. We've seen that kind of around the league. It's not just a Mike Evans effect.

It's an all wide receiver one effect, but it's been especially true with Mike Evans because I don't think people quite realize like how damn effective he is when they need a twenty yard reception. They got a twenty yard reception basically whenever they wanted simply by targeting Mike Evans on the field. And that is a huge variable that's missing.

And not only that, but the way the defenses have to prevent things downfield for Mike Evans, which opens up things underneath for McCaffrey and Kittle, you don't have that anymore. So now they can be more aggressive defensively, get up near the line of scrimmage, and now the yak opportunities go down for those guys. So I do think we should...

Be wary of the fact that like, I think there's a pretty high probability that, you know, McCaffrey catches six to eight balls or something, but he doesn't have the same touch and equity. He usually has the explosives aren't anywhere to be seen. The yards per reception isn't as high. And, uh, and same idea for Kittle where, uh, I think you could argue like their floor is really helped by no Evans, but I would almost think that their ceiling is actually hurt by no Evans.

So to me, I think both are going to be a little bit overrun. A lot of leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage just in that alone. It's not called leverage lane for no reason, but you think about it. It's we know McCaffrey, we know Kittle. Those guys are definitely, I mean, look, they still got almost a twenty seven point team totalTeam TotalIn NFL DFS, a team total estimates one team's points, usually from the game total and point spread. It includes scoring by the whole team, not just offensive touchdowns or fantasy production.Recheck team totals after major news, then ask which players actually benefit. If your projections already reflect the change, avoid adding another automatic boost.Read the full definition of Team Total on the road. I mean, you just sold me on betting the under, by the way, because also these guys just catch passes over the middle and fall.

Like you said, you know, salt and wound, by the way, because I had like twenty five percent Mike Evans captain in that game. The buddy had ninety four yards at the half. He was doing whatever he wanted. That doesn't exist right now. And look, a lot of cases can be made, but the cases that are being made is like Christian Kirk and cooks. One of them is going to be in the slot and pick it all up. Okay. Like slot catch, move on.

No, those can add up as those guys, I guess like a Watkins at $3,300 or a Kirk or someone that you want to use there as a one offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off. And you you're saying it's going to take away from those other guys, but also make up for a.

Hurst, who might be better off or suited in something like a game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack or somewhere, if he actually hits the ceiling, $5,500 Baker probably has a pretty good game, et cetera, et cetera. Like then I don't have any problem with it. But we know CMC, Dixon and Kittle are all getting ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership here. Drake London, I said earlier, it's not like he's getting a ton of popularity, but I could see ten to fifteen percent range. Right.

He's not getting the same ownership as these running backs at those price tags. It's like it's obvious. Look at CMC is $7,600 at the running back position, pushing thirty. And who knows in high stakes? And then you get Drake London. Ten to fifteen for a hundred bucks less. Different position. Totally get it. But that's a product of the slate. We talked about it earlier where people are going, what their constructions look like.

So that game alone, it's somebody said earlier, but like everyone's talking about how does Green Bay Detroit fail? It matters. That conversation matters a ton. That's why we had it earlier. But so did that conversation you just put out there. Because now it's looking at it like, if this one fails, there's so many lines. Go look at your line. Everybody that builds early, go look at all your lineups and see how many lineups don't have at least one of Kittle, CMC, or Bijan right now.

And I'm guessing at least one of those guys is in your lineups. It's not saying they shouldn't be. It's noting how it could fail. No one's talking about how that could fail as much as they're talking about how Green Bay, Detroit has to fail. But there's definitely a ton of lineups. And this is... Kicking off the slate, right? Like forty Niners Falcons. That's the first thing. So we'll see how it actually shakes out. I think that's quite interesting.

What else with the Puka conversation and that Rams game just in general? Is there any thoughts there? Interesting, I guess enough. It's like they also have a twenty six point team totalTeam TotalIn NFL DFS, a team total estimates one team's points, usually from the game total and point spread. It includes scoring by the whole team, not just offensive touchdowns or fantasy production.Recheck team totals after major news, then ask which players actually benefit. If your projections already reflect the change, avoid adding another automatic boost.Read the full definition of Team Total on the road.

I get the hookah news is quite important, but it doesn't seem like many want to play any of this stuff this week after everybody wanted that last week, by the way, last week, it was like Cousins, um, you know, Meyer lineups that you could get to Tucker, the late game heroics that had boosted them even further. So I think last week it was like Cousins Meyer, uh, Tucker and then the opposite side of that game with what was it, Walker?

Like that was a pretty good three one from last week. You could do something like that this week too. I'm not saying it's going to be another game like that for Tucker, but it doesn't seem like anybody wants Brock Bowers and Williams is kind of sitting there at $7,000 flat. That's, you know, how many people want that? So I will say he could be an interesting pivot from CMC. I know we like the quorum stuff.

I'm just saying, and when you look at the price points and the way the slate sets up, Bijan, $8,700 last week. Walker in the afternoon, $8,500. Unfortunately, Kyron Williams is not Kenneth Walker, the third.

But if you think about what you just said, if people are sitting there and CMC is the guy that fails them in the morning, there could be some people that are wishing they had Williams going up against the look, the defense that Kenneth Walker, the third just smashed and other teams have as well. And there still is the same twenty six, twenty seven point team total on the road for the Rams in the afternoon.

Not that far away for the Rams to go play the Raiders either. So there's a lot of thoughts here, I think. But give me your thoughts, anything else within this game, and then we'll get to our leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage lanes for the week. Real quick, I love the comment in chat. Any game involving the Falcons can fail in numerous ways. Yes, it can. That is absolutely true.

As far as Puka is concerned, the reason I wanted to talk through the Mike Evans San Francisco stuff first is because we might have a very similar situation here. We might even have a double situation here in Los Angeles where if Puka doesn't go, the Rams are without Adams and Puka.

Yeah, they're going to get a ton of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership as a result because there's a massive amount of usage to therefore go to the passing game, but like how do the Rams have success through the air? They won't have any receivers who are typically capable of earning like a single target, let alone doing stuff downfield. Are they going to have to do everything through the running backs? Are you going to have to do everything through the tight ends?

It just becomes a really weird situation there where I would very much caution against, you know, projecting success. This is an offense already, by the way, that like, They had Adams for some of that game last week. They had Puka for all of that game last week. And they didn't have offensive success against the Arizona Cardinals, who have one of the worst passing DVOAs in the league.

So it's like, to me, they're just sirens going off of be very, very careful of how much you lean into these injury situations because offenses still need to have some level of success to create fantasy points for their guys. And... With the Rams especially, I don't know where it comes from other than on the ground.

To me, the guy who would probably get the biggest boost would actually be Kyron Williams if there's no Puka because I think the passing game would look a lot like Stafford drops back, Stafford looks down the field, says there's not a damn guy down the field I want to throw the ball to, and checks down to Kyron and you get...

You know the kind of kyron game that he had against Philly where there's just nothing downfield so kyron just gets peppered with those check downs and as we talked about earlier like that's the game scriptGame ScriptGame script is how a game's score and time remaining influence its pace, play choices and player opportunities. In football, teams protecting a lead often run more, while teams chasing a deficit often pass more.Before locking a lineup, ask who keeps playing if your expected script reverses. Check passing-down roles and backup rotations instead of assuming a team's leading rusher handles every situation.Read the full definition of Game Script where kyron's going to be on the field a hell of a lot more than quorum anyway And that holds true to like what we just talked about previous or what I mentioned there is like, if you do get that news early again, will Kyron get steam?

Yes. Because obviously it makes sense now and all of that, but I don't think people would go away from CMC for him. It would be a thought process more of like how do those lineups look? And then Mumpfield gets the pickup because people, you know, know that Hearst is right there and now they can play Mumpfield instead. You'll see how it goes when we get there, but got to bring this back up from our man.

Yobi Trice says, boys, it's been downhill since week one, by the way, week one. It is what it is. Downhill is not ideal. I get it. But week one gets an FFWC seat. It's going to Miami already, so hopefully you pick it back up there. Yobi Trice, if nothing else, says, I got cocky with using Young and Coker, and now I'm doing things like using, he says, McVay. I think he's talking about McKee from last week as his quarterback. Oh, man.

He's definitely not using McVay as his quarterback. He's talking about McKee. He said, I don't even know if that's how you spell it, but I used him. I don't have a question. And he loves Titletown, so he just says Zach, question mark. So, Yobe, you're the man. We appreciate you. But, you know, he comes back around again here. Higbee stack with Otton. Now he has a question. Now, see, I'm doing it again. He says, Higbee stack with Otton if Nacua is out.

Do you have a Higbee or Parkinson preference? They're five hundred bucks apart. Yeah, Higbee. Even with more ownership, he's the one who's getting the higher value targets. Parkinson's been targeted in the red zone a decent amount, so at least you get that with him. But if Parkinson doesn't score, you're not going to get anything usable from him. Whereas Higbee can score, but even if he doesn't, you still might get, you know, ten to fifteen just on receptions and yards alone.

So I definitely prefer him and think he has a much better ceiling as well. But Man, once you hear my leverage lane, you'll know why I'm just not super into either of those guys. You gotta be careful too, because you never know when they're going to want to run a tush push with Davis Allen or whatever the hell that was. They try to do their own version of it. I'm like, I'll still never forget this. Cause it was hilarious.

The commentators on that one, I forget who it was, but like, yeah, that sounds like a, that sounds like a situation where it was a good idea on Wednesday at practice. And Davis Allen was like, yeah, I can do this. And then he gets to the game and it's like, oh shit. And he just can't do it. Like there's no chance.

It was the worst, um, you know, whatever you want to call it, like the worst trial that they ran there and it just did not work out. So pretty much hilarious based off of that. And yeah, Brewers are winning. Chat talking about title. Our guy Nades, both those guys, big brew crew fans. Brewers got the job done last night. It's a cool story. Won nothing in the series. Yeah, I've got one more before we move on to leverage lanes.

I've got one more thought on the Tampa stack. I'd never stop you. Yeah, I just had this thought. So, like, we've got a comment from EWW. I don't know how to pronounce that handle. But Baker on Hurst for all the cash. So, one interesting thing here is, like, let's separate what you're asking Hurst and Otton to do if you use them as one-offsOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off versus what you're asking them to do if you use them as part of a stack. I'm using them as one-offs.

Like the difference between let's say Hearst getting, I don't know, ten DraftKings points and fourteen DraftKings points, kind of meaningless. You're already asking others to separate for you. You're not asking Hurst to go win you the slate. Same thing with Otton. If he gets you ten versus if he gets you fourteen, it doesn't really matter. As soon as you use them as part of the stack, so much of winning tournaments is getting the stack to really elevate over their expectations.

So if you're using Otton and Hurst as one-offs and they just perform to expectation... That's fine. That's good enough that they did their job in your lineup. If you're using them as a stack and they performed expectations, that's not good enough. Now your lineup is way behind all of the lineups that had a stack really go off and outperform their own expectations.

And so I think it's, it's a nice thought and, and, Again, this is why if you're going to Baker, I think you really want to go to Tez because Tez is the one who can really help this stack as a whole perform over expectations because he can get one sixty-yard touchdown or something like that. But I think that's just something to really think through. What are you asking of this player? What does a successful outcome look like for this player?

And as soon as you turn it into your stack, which is the primary tool that we have to create separation over our opponents, now you're asking something totally different of him. Yeah, I like that call. I like the Tez thought there, how you can open it up. And obviously, I think you said it earlier, though, like a Baker Tez, Baker Tez Hurst. And they're just become a $6,200 player. Right. And you're like, that's how it's going to happen.

And you avoid we didn't talk a lot about it, but I think obviously Godwin will get some ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership at his price based on a book of being out people landing in that stack and all that. So a way to get different would be something like that. I like the breakdown of like the one off versus the stack. So yeah, try to talk that out.

Talk that out a little bit here on a lot of different cases, but give us your leverage lane for the week. You've been holding it back. I'm so curious to hear what it is for this week. So take us away. Well, that's because throughout the show, I've basically been going back and forth between three things. There are literally three options.

I've already talked through two of them, so I'm not going to make either of them my leverage lane, but I was toying with some Cleveland stuff.

I was toying with some Josh Jacobs, Packers stuff, things of that nature, but my leverage lane is going to be Brock Bowers, and think a lot of this just comes from like I was thinking about you know our conversation earlier where We're going through what the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build looks like and how many really, really easy, good things there are for the field to do that lands on some kind of affordable tight end, whether it's Kittle at the highest end range.

Most Likely, I think it's landing on LaPorta or Kraft or Higbee or Otton. There are so many things that the field can do by going to one of these cheaper tight ends. It just feels a little bit... It feels a little too much to me like trying to outpredict everybody else about what's going to happen when all these things are fairly Likely to happen to just play into that kind of build.

So what's a lever that we can pull that puts us on a totally different roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Read the full definition of Roster Construction than what everybody else has? Pay all the way up at tight end. And guess what? We get to do that with one of the best players in the NFL and one of the best fantasy producers who... I don't think he's been in a great spot yet this season, and I don't think that we've seen anything close to what his real ceiling is yet this season.

And yet, it's very clear that his role in this offense, the efficiency with Kubiak at the helm, It does seem like he's going to be a better producer and a better DFS play long-term than what we've seen from him in the past, which was already really good. And we've seen like forty plus performance outbursts from him in the past. I think that's very much in the cards and he's projected at like five percent ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership.

And so I think that, uh, From a roster construction standpoint and from a, like, this guy can be the separator that you need on the slate standpoint, Brock Bowers this week is just a phenomenal DFS play, and it's also about what he sets up for the rest of the lineup. This face, the face of a man who just had his leverage lane stolen.

I tried to set up at the start of the show saying there's a tight end on this slate and his name is not George Kittle that I'll be going back to. The leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage, there's like no chance you landed on that. I know you have like, you've got Deshaun Watson with Concepcion, Boston and Tate. You've got finally full conviction on the Josh Jacobs thing and just committing to it fully and going in on it.

The last thing I thought is you were going to take that from me. The best part about him, by the way, is that he's in George Kittle spot. You can play both. We've talked about that a ton. It's not for me necessarily, but I like Bowers there. But he's in George Kittle spot on a lineup, which is also a hundred bucks more opposite, or a hundred bucks more than CMC at the running back and at a different position.

And so it sets you up with a different roster composition. While sort of going against that San Francisco stuff. So it makes sense how you land there and just adding to it. But I really do like that spot. I also think it's like somewhat interesting too. And we'll wait on the Puka news. But if you were looking to do like the full Brock Bowers experience this week is bringing Kirk Cousins along. It just is.

And so you don't have to go back to Tucker and hope it was from last week and the same. It's like, you can just hope it's the Bowers game, but you could also play Puka if he plays. Again, he hasn't practiced. So I don't even know if it's going to happen, but you could go Williams, Cousins, Bowers. Love that little setup there as well. A lot of things you can do with Brock Bowers on the slate.

You can also just play Brock Bowers because he's amazing. And like I said, it won't be because it's National Tight End Day. It'll be because magically he doesn't just disappear from being the same thing we've said all season, which is JSN or a tight end one price, which is $7,700 this week. By the way, he went up after having a bad week last week. They know. They know. So. That moves me around here.

And it's a cop-out I've mentioned like three or four times on the show, but I'll definitely have this in one of my main lineups this week. So I'll just run with it. But I'm going to run a Goff triple. So Goff, Amon Ra, Jamo, LaPorta, all four. And then figure out what you want to do on the other side. Maybe Alex will convince me to go to Josh Jacobs. Maybe I'll just play something else, but I'll go to that.

I also think there's one more little one that's just unique. I'm going to take that one as mine. But just to note, Every Kittle Tennessee Titans lineup, which is both very popular, by the way, can become Tucker Kraft and Minnesota Vikings on this slate. No one's paying upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up at defense besides the Texans. So if you wanted like a double whammy like Kittle, and Texans are both popular.

Kittle and Titans are both popular, but you could just do a two V two swap Aru and get, um, you know, another way that the Green Bay Detroit game fails, if you will, or again, that could be in a secondary with craft and, and Gibbs, if you landed that way, but another way that it can fail is if a guy like craft as a one-offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off, is hurting everything else. Cause he just catches balls and falls on them, or he's getting the touchdowns.

It slows it down, different things like that, where you don't really need a full game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack or something there. So I think that's another interesting one that you could do and could pair those together if you want to play double tight end, but I like the golf triple. So using the guy on the cover Bowers is definitely an awesome spot this week. One thing I wanted to clarify about the Baker stuff is I'm not saying that he's in a great spot this week.

I'm saying that I think one of the reasons why we haven't seen the full explosion from him is that he hasn't been in a great spot at all yet this year, but we're still seeing the really consistent, great production. We're seeing how cleverly You know, Kubiak is using him and creating these matchups for him.

And I do think that one key piece for for the Rams here and what could make it a great spot is if McDuffie doesn't play again, he's he's still questionable with the groin injury. Like, I think if McDuffie does play, he's going to be on Bowers for most of the game.

And, and I would also say like one thing we have noticed so far, I think there's been a bit of a pattern is Bowers is definitely having more success on non-cornerback so far this year. And so if I'm trying to like think of, okay, well, how's Kubiak going to respond to this? I think he's probably going to just, okay, try to scheme up more opportunities online backers. And guess what? Landman has already been ruled out for Los Angeles.

So like now it's, can he scheme opportunities for Bowers to get one-on-one matchups in space? With a backup linebacker, things of that nature. I just think there's a lot here. It's not so much that this is a great matchup. It's just that it's not a matchup that scares me anywhere as much as a lot of the tight end data so far. Who cares? A lot of you guys need this.

I don't care if it's a sale or a pitch or what you want to call it. Like the foundation. Look, BlakeAnalytics.com for Alex. Check it out. Make sure you get over there. Get in the Discord. You can use promo code Tambo. LeverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage. Whatever you want to use. I represent it. I help Alex out as much as I can. He's doing a phenomenal job over there. ShipItNation.com, you know. But so many people are still missing this. This is the difference.

I posted last night. It's been almost ten years since my first live final. Like I've been playing this game for a long time now. We're still getting stuff. It's not to be rude. It's nothing against this Person. But I don't care what's any spot. Brock Bowers. It's Brock Bowers. This guy can show up anywhere, anytime, any game. If you think because last week, well, Michael Meyer got the catches last week. It can't be Bowers. They've moved on. No, yeah, they're not going to use this guy.

I don't give a shit about anything. All that matters is the second part. I agree with the leverage angle. Exactly. That's all that matters. Nobody knows anything about anyone. Matchups. Oh, one dude slips. Oh, it was a good matchup. But then did you see that guy fell? I did. And it still cost you. And my guy still got the points. So focus on playing the game. Learn how to play DFS. Play DFS. Let everybody else focus on picks.

Chasing the picks, the plays, all this stuff, build good lineups, play the game of DFS, put yourself in position, and hopefully it pays off. But if you have good bankroll managementBankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Read the full definition of Bankroll Management, good contest selection, and really start doing this, when you eliminate this other shit from your mind, you will get very good at the game. We're looking up. We're not looking up picks. We're looking up conditional ownership. How is the field playing? If the field does this, then we can do that.

This is chess. This is poker. This is not the sports betting. Let me bet on this team to win a game. We got to play a game. There's a puzzle. We got to put it together. That's what this is about. So I don't know what you guys want to do, but Alex, anything else you want to add on that? I just, we can only harp on it so much, but it's crazy every week.

The people are telling you who's a good play. And I heard this spot is bad and all this other shit. I don't care about any of that ever. I like the, the comment from, uh, from G Mandrell, uh, play the offensive coordinator. I think that's a, that's a really good, uh, thought.

Cause like that, that also gets to why matchups can be misleading and why, you know, a lot of the advanced analytics, uh, or advanced, like, uh, you know, coverage data, things of that nature can be misleading is because. When there is an edge, the best defensive coordinators are going to try to find a way to counter it. The best offense coordinators are going to try to find a way to create a new advantage. We can't read their minds.

We don't know exactly what their plan is going to be. But one thing we can do is we can suggest that, hey, one of the best offensive minds in the league, like no doubt about it in Clint Kubiak. He's probably going to continue to find new ways to get his best player of the ball and do so in a good way. And to answer the question earlier, I'm just going to play Bowers as a one-offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off.

I'm not going to stack him with Kirk Cousins this week. I think we need some more upside from our stacks this week in terms of playing through explosive plays and things of that nature. And with Bowers, I'm more so just hoping that he just absolutely dominates the targets. You wanted to break the position is what you're saying. I think if he breaks the slate enough to be needed at $7,700, though, I'm going to be definitely having some Cousins lineups in there with him.

Just just because it's him and whatever I decide on the other side. I liked your point about McDuffie as well. We are waiting still on that. That's kind of the more that's the other interesting news that goes with it. That just maybe opens up a bit more. But I really don't care because at the end of the day, whoever, you know. It's always the same conversation, but like any of these guys can have a good game.

Back to the golf analogy, the week after, oh, Rory McIlroy said he didn't practice last week. He's no way he could play good golf. Yeah, one of the best golfers in the entire world ever of all time could not just come out and have a good week the next week. It can happen, guys. Trust me. So that's it, man. I am fired up. My guy says, Justin, I love fired up Tambo. These things are just...

We're just honestly like hammering it to try and help people and get better at this game. And that's really the focus, right? Help people get good, win money. Last week, I know, Alex, your Discord was fired up. Bunch of money in there. The Ship It Nation Discord was fired up. Almost half a million dollars again across everybody. So just awesome to see. But let's have another good one. It is week seven. The question about week seven. I always say I'll win week seven.

This is the same time. Last couple of years, I've had success. It's been starting out in week seven. Yeah, there's one more question I want to answer here from Chris because I think he posted this earlier. I meant to bring it up already. So the thing about the paying upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up for two wide receivers is that we get a really nice conditional ownership discount.

And so essentially what that means is as soon as people have one stud receiver in their lineup, so let's say I'll just click Ja'Marr Chase this week. With Chase in... Amon Ross St. Brown goes from twenty point one percent projected ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership to four point nine percent conditional ownership. That's a dramatic, dramatic drop. And essentially what that's saying is like people typically we also see this to a lesser degree at running back. But like if you start with one expensive running back.

The vast majority of people are therefore more Likely to now go pay down at running back so they can go pay upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up once at wide receiver, and they feel like they can win at both positions, things of that nature. It's rare that people are paying down enough elsewhere that they can actually fit two stud wide receivers, and so you get this dramatically lower combinatorial ownership for any stud wide receiver combination.

If we go to the tight ends this week and we try to apply this to both Bowers and McBride we don't see the same thing for two reasons number one if I put Bowers in the conditional ownership for Trey McBride goes from one point nine percent to one point six percent so for one thing like they're actually being owned together slightly more than we would expect just based on their individual ownerships but also it's like they're already both so low-ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage that you're not creating some further advantage.

You're not taking a chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk player and turning him conditionally into a really contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian guy the way that you can with the double-starred wide receiver approach. So no, the combo of Bowers and McBride is not creating the same thing, but it's not about their positions. It's about the conditional ownership and the combinatorial ownership. You just don't create the same advantage there. Yo, we came in one more time, said book Chris H. You got good style. If you saw the picture of him there.

Yeah, love that. All right, cool. You guys can check us out, blicanalytics.com, shipitnation.com, dfsmastermind.com is the last one. Like I said, I think a lot of people can benefit off that. You can get the MyMap modules and just start to learn sort of the basics and the concepts behind it. If you like it, there's a lot more there for you as well.

Alex and I have done a ton of stuff behind the paywall over there together, interview of himself and checking out some other different things. So if you guys have any questions, hit me up on X at Totag and Tambo. For Alex, for myself, that's going to do it for this week. Good luck in your contests. Let's ship it. Thank you.