NFL DFS Week 6 Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel Strategy

So how much do you want to talk about last week? I have two topics for this week, both pretty quick, I think, but are interesting. And then they will apply to this slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate specifically. So what do you want to talk about when it comes to last week? Anything? Well, why don't you just bring up yours? Because the first thing that I thought of when you asked that question was, what the hell happened last week? Because it's like, you know, we've had this conversation before.

It's like, by the time we get to Saturday and we're here doing this show, Last weekend feels like a month ago to me. It always does. There's so much going on throughout the week and long hours, late nights, et cetera, et cetera. So I was trying to remember that. I was thinking more about a couple other takeaways. Obviously, the Bowers is JSN. You and I have been beating that drum. You put the coach to it and said with Kubiak, that's what it is.

Even this week, we'll get to it. Oh, but he's gone up in price again. He's $7,500. Right. He can't go to $9,300 like he probably should be. So you got to look at that and think about doesn't mean it's always going to work out, but you got to remember what you're getting for the money that you're spending. And then you got to think about slate dynamics and how it shakes out.

The other thing, what was the other the quarterback set up last week? I really liked Love Watson. Golden with the run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back there. And that kind of worked out for a lot of people. So I know some people had some big weeks based off of that, but I just mean in general was, I mean, the big topic last week was obviously Detroit, Arizona in the end. And I talked about, so, so mine was pretty simple. It's back to back weeks.

The week before was Parker Washington shock last week, Michael Wilson shock, and even McBride McBride did get there with twenty one point five late, but my goodness, they had to feed the damn guy right to the very end. And it's like, it counts. I made this joke. Yeah. About garbage time points, but Michael Wilson was the big one for me and it just didn't come through last week. So we'll talk about that this week. I think it's interesting.

And only that but like McBride was outscored by Bowers so if you made that pivot you still uh you know you still were uh you still benefited from it I would also say I felt really good about the leverage lane again um last week mine was using gibbs and the Detroit defense to kind of like paint the picture of how that game failed and ironically like the Detroit defense because of that garbage time touchdown like they were only fine I think they ended up with five DraftKings points would have been eight without that garbage time score but the gibbs had the massive massive game and because Detroit was able to get pressure

Throughout the game and really kind of shut that offense down you saw the big Michael Wilson you know mega chalk failure that we were looking for and that's the kind of move that I I think I I really liked the way we kind of talked through that and it's interesting like Arizona's in another really high total game they're up against another high powered offense. Sure.

The Rams defense is a lot better than Detroit's, but it's not like teams haven't moved the ball against this Rams defense. And now all of a sudden Arizona is getting like no ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. So I talked up like off the top of, there's some things in the ownership this week that, uh, are confusing me a little bit, some of which I think these guys are just way over-owned.

Arizona is one where I'm just a little confused why it's so low, which isn't even necessarily me saying that I think that they're under-owned and I want to play them. It's just I'm surprised at how far the sentiment has shifted based on just one week in a pretty similar game environment overall. Yeah, agreed. And there's now a love injury, right? Love's out, Algier in. There's more things to talk about with that when we get there. Like I said, I've got two topics for this week.

I'm going to get to those in a second. I've got a good way to put them out so that they will lead us right in to the topic of the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk field and whatnot. But before we get started, I just want to remind everybody about all the offers over at ShibbitNation.com. The promos are there. If you want to get in, you can use any of the options down below. Click ShibbitNation. Join the nation.

And then if you want to get into Ship It Games, you just need to be an all access or NFL only member. We're giving away $50,000 in cash and prizes to the community. It's basically a live final, but it's online. It's an online final. The fifty people that will get in right now, fifteen are in so far. Thirty five remain will play off in week seventeen where the eventual final.

Winners of that, the top ten, will move on to the week one of the playoffs and play for all this cash. Down here below, annual membership story to Ship It Nation and SaberSim. And we are going to be using... The Stone, two point O, amongst other things over at Ship It Nation. So we'll get to that in a second. The first one I want to talk about is when you brought up the topic of coming into the show.

We talked pre-show and I mentioned as well, like, you know, I just had some I always call them shower thoughts. Like you're thinking about like, hey, what's this? What could I do here? Like you come up with some good ideas. I think the real answer is when you don't have your phone in your hand all the time, you come up with it. Actual thoughts. Imagine that. But I will say this. I want to talk about this topic real quick with you.

What do you do when you kind of have something that's really good? I want to see how you handle this. You love something. You can really tell a story about it. Game theory, all this perspective. But then it's no good for projectionProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections. It doesn't show up for that. Like, I guess I have my answer, but I want to see how you think about that situation where you're like, this is just plain wrong. I know that, and you can go change it.

It's your projections, your ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership, et cetera, et cetera. I could tell the team at Ship It Nation to do the same, but it is kind of subjective, right? It's like, I think this is going to happen. It's IK being the situation. How do you handle that when applying it to a single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry build?

Yeah I love this question so first of all I think like each time it happens is different and it it depends on uh from one thing like am I are we talking about a full stack are we talking about one single play uh I can give you an example of one of the times that happened this year is uh two weeks ago the the kyron leverage lane call when he you know ends up being like the the single most important play of the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate he didn't project that well now I did go in and I said like okay why is he not projecting that well what can I find here and like as you

Mentioned it helps that like I'm doing my own projections so one of the things that I saw was okay there's there's too much volume going to the receivers the Eagles secondary is really good you know they they force some more check downs so I'm able to bump kyron's you know target shareTarget ShareTarget share is the percentage of a team's targets (passes thrown toward an intended receiver) that go to one player. A receiver who sees 8 of his team's 32 targets has a 25 percent target share.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Read the full definition of Target Share up a little bit I'm able to bump You know, the target shares of those receivers down a little bit, especially Davante Adams that week. So little things like that, I am able to go in and edit.

And he went from, you know, a really poorly projected play to a pretty well projected play, but still nowhere near Likely the best play of the slate. And in that case, I'm still comfortable saying, okay, but I think that he is one of the best plays of the slate. I'm going to play him here. I think he's one of the largest ownership inefficiencies. So like, even though he... Sorry, even though he wasn't projecting that well, his GPPGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Read the full definition of GPP score was still really good.

So I think largely like a lot of what my stuff is trying to do, the projections, the GPP score, so on and so forth is actually trying to help that sort of scenario where like it's your, the, the data is trying to bridge the gap between projection and good DFS play. And there are obviously a lot of, you know, different things there.

Like it's, for example, like it's really difficult for the GPP scores to incorporate, like, you know, the, the concepts of correlatedCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage that I've talked about many times, or like, you know, direct leverage where you're saying, not only does this guy fail, like, so Detroit defense, for example, last week, the GPP score for the defense can't account for the fact that if they hit, that also means that a lot of chalk on the slate is probably failing.

But again, Beyond that, a lot of this stuff is really trying to kind of bridge these divides between what we think in terms of our own convictions and how good of a DFS play they are. And again, in that regard, it really helps that I'm the one setting the projection so that when I see Kyron projecting so much worse than I think he should be able to, I literally can go in and change the inputs that make him project better.

But if I were answering this question for... Somebody who doesn't have access to the back end of the projections and can change things that way. The thing that I would say is, number one, you shouldn't just dismiss it when there's a big difference between what you expected and what you actually see. The first thing you should ask is, okay, why is this? Can I point to something in the projections that explains why I feel differently than what I'm seeing?

And when I'm able to identify that explanation, does it, you know, is it still something that I believe in or is this, Oh, you know what? I didn't think of that. They were probably right. And I was the one who needed to adjust my own, uh, you know, expectations or is it the other way around?

So like, you know, if, if I hadn't gone in and changed those projections for, for Kyron and for the other Rams, uh, Someone could have gone and looked at that and said, wow, Davante Adams is projecting extremely well. I don't know that I see that against Quinion Mitchell. Quinion has had so much success against really good wide receivers. He's had a ton of success against Davante Adams in the past. I think that Davante Adams's touchdown equity is much lower.

I think that his involvement between the Twins is going to be much lower. So on and so forth. And then you get to say, okay, because of that, you know, there's two and a half to three projection points for Kyron right there. Great. Now, is there anywhere else that the, you know, other guys are over projected or, uh, maybe, maybe you noticed that like, you know, Kyron's, uh, rushing arts prop is higher than what I'm projecting.

So now you can say, okay, even the market thinks that Kyron is, is better than, than what these projections are showing. So there are lots of different ways that you can look at it there, but I think You always want to trust your convictions, but you also want to kind of vet your own convictions to make sure that they're grounded in something real.

Yeah, I think the second part, obviously the first part are extremely key, but like you said, because you have the ability to go and change it. And that's also, you see these things, you're dialed into the data, all those factors, not everybody is going to have that. And so that's why they sign up for Black Analytics or Ship It Nation or both, hopefully, and they've got everything they need.

But I'm saying the setup of the second part is what I think a lot of people, and that was going to be my part of the answer, is flipping the switch mentally. I've talked about it a bunch. It won't project correct on paper. But if, A, certain optimizersOptimizerAn optimizer is software that builds DFS lineups within a site's salary cap and roster rules. It uses projected fantasy points, your settings and, in some tools, simulations to select combinations for a chosen goal.Build a small test batch first. Check which players and combinations repeat, and investigate why before increasing the lineup count or changing settings.Read the full definition of Optimizer, like if you had SaberSim through Ship It Nation, you would be able to manually change that projection and go swap it. But in ShowdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Read the full definition of Showdown, you can do this. If you're like, man, this doesn't make sense.

They're giving Waddle all this credit. And I think it's Sutton night and Waddle got a thirteen projection and Sutton has an eight. And again, the props push it that way. Everything you can go see that probably is better off. But if you really want to change it and get some unique lineups, go change it. If you want to just shift the ownership between one running back from a Bijan and Brian Robinson Jr. game, we're like, I'm not going to give it a bunch.

It's going to be a Bijan game. But I think Brian Robinson Jr. could be more involved. And on a showdown slate, it's easier. But on a main slate, I think there's a second dynamic to it. So not only are you mentally flipping the switch as to why, like you said, make sure you're digging in. Make sure you're understanding it. What's really going on here? And let me have a look at it.

But I also think the roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Read the full definition of Roster Construction and how your build looks, like you said, I'm just going to use a single play. You talked about is it a stack or a single play, right? And I'm going to try and find an exact example here. I want to see. So forty eight and a half is the number I got. I'm just using a receiving prop as an example, just to see if like you're even in the realm or the ballpark.

Of this example, I want to give you guys. Thirty eight versus forty seven and a half. So we're about ten yards shy on this example I'll give you. But let me explain it quickly. If you had a lineup, I'm just giving you a quick example. I saw breezing through some practice stuff this morning. If you're playing Trey McBride. And not Bowers. And you have $4,700 remaining.

And it easily fits Xavier Worthy, who is this week with no rice in a fantastic spot. Right. You got Mahomes as your quarterback. He's a wide receiver one now, like et cetera, et cetera. Maybe we'll find out plays out. Didn't work out well for Trey Harris owners last week. I can tell you from experience. So when these guys sometimes get slid into the role, doesn't always work out. But to your point, I would rather play Trey Tucker.

Because I don't have Brock Bowers and I've got Trey McBride. So not only do I want to, I'm doing it because I'm like, Hey, I want to go get the guy that fits there. But in a projection right now, where these might be four points ahead or three points ahead because of his situation. But when I validate it, One, not that far off the market anyway. It's a projection. It's a projection. It's a projection. It's median, right? Well, who knows what's actually going to happen?

But two, they're both kind of owned. I'm not saying Tucker not getting any ownership, but which one makes more sense for the lineup? Well, I'm saying that $7,200 McBride is going to beat $7,500 Brock Bowers. Therefore, I'm hoping it's not just twenty five points to twenty two points. And I'm hoping in that lineup that somebody eats Brock Bauer's lunch. And in this case, it would make sense to me for it to be Trey Tucker. That's one example I could give.

But I want to give that as a first thought. I've got one later on, too. I like that. And I take it a step further to where I think some people will kind of react to that and say, well, can't both of those guys succeed? And the answer is like, yeah, they can, but you didn't stack Kirk Cousins in this lineup. So you're already making the assumption that that doesn't happen. Right.

Cause if, if it does happen, you're going to want that to Kirk Cousins, Trey Tucker, Brock Bowers. Cause that's like, that's not going to be a super popular build this week, but it's going to be a build that occurs this week. So, uh, At minimum, if that happens, you've got at least a handful of guys who went to that build that you better make sure the rest of your lineup is a lot better than theirs if you want a chance to beat them.

So you're already pretty much assuming that that doesn't happen when you're not using that stack. And so in that case, you're saying, all right, there's not enough passing production in that Vegas game to support both of them.

I can get rid of the possibility that Bowers has a ceilingCeilingCeiling is the high end of a player's or lineup's realistic range of fantasy scores. It describes a big performance that could happen when things go well, not the expected score or an absolute maximum.Describe what must happen for each player to have a huge game. Then check whether those conditions help or hurt the other players in your lineup.Read the full definition of Ceiling game if trey Tucker catches a forty yard touchdown instead because that's you know if trey Tucker catches a forty yard touchdown that might be three receptions for thirty yards and a touchdown that Bowers doesn't get because the drive ends instead of continuing from that point forward so uh yeah that's I think a really good way to kind of think through all this and That's the, that's the point I was making too earlier where it was like the GBP source can account for like all of the, you know, uh, different ways that leverage can be,

Uh, applied through the guys that you're playing, but it can make the, make the connection between like, well, he doesn't project that well, but man, when it hits, how valuable can it be for me? Yeah. And then how does it make sense within the lineup? And that's, I think for me, it's, I'm always thinking about the overall game theory of it. And you added it to like, it's not a cousin. So that, that makes sense to me from that perspective as an additional add on.

I've got one more thing here real quick, Tambo, which is like, you know, this, this question was framed from a single entry perspective. And, and you'll go collect here in the chat is saying like, Your single entry lineup has to tell a story about how the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk fails, how you leverage it. That's true.

But I also think like if you're building one hundred fifty lineups, you can build one hundred fifty different lineups that also do a good job of telling the story of how the chalk that you're not using in that lineup fails. It's not like it's this isn't something that you only have to think about in Singletary. These are these concepts.

Are just as important no matter what contest you're in now as you get to those mme contests it does become a little bit more important to like just make sure that every single spot has ceiling but it's it's the same idea right like if if you're if you're using train McBride and you are hoping that in that lineup he separates from the field, which means he separates from Brock Bowers, it's still very beneficial to you if Trey Tucker has his ceiling game and suppresses Bowers that way.

So even though this is more important and really should be like – Maybe it's not even that it's more important. It's just easier to think through once in a single entry, which is why, you know, personally, like I've had so much more success and I'm more comfortable with just one lineup per slate. It's still something you should be thinking about if you're building one hundred $5,100 percent.

But the point you added there that's so critical, I think, is that like that's in a single entry, people play it safe. So that's what I'm saying. The Worthy play just slides in with no thought whatsoever of why Trey Tucker would make sense. Trey Tucker ceiling game could also be with Cousins and it sucks that you don't have Cousins in that lineup. But guess what? A lot of those Cousins Tucker lineups have Brock Bowers in them and Brock Bowers getting crushed because of that.

So could it still work out? Yes, but you are covering different angles and thought processes within that. And I think that's important to remember than just taking the safe route of your, you know, I'm building one lineup and I've only got one. So I better go with the three point better projected guy.

Because it just says he's three points better no think about the whole lineup but we'll get to more of that stuff later speaking of that the second section I want to talk about it's going to segue us in anyway to this week and the chalk build and all that you said in your opening that some of the ownerships are you know going this way and some of the other one you're noticing it and I know we talked pre-show so I got the spoiler alert before you guys could get there.

We are going to talk about the Chicago Atlanta spot. You know, Bijan steaming up some. Drake London, oh, if I'm not going to Bijan, I'll just go to London. Getting some extra steam. Oh, does everybody know that Odunze is on the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate? Odunze is definitely known to be on this slate, as is Caleb Williams back. But is Odunze going to be popular? Or is Odunze going to be that low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage? No. Spoiler alert. He's not going to be either. So that's a game that is steaming.

We're going to talk about that in specifics. You can use it for your example. If you want. But the question I really have is sometimes spots are steaming because it just built like it sims out better. The lineups look better. The overall everything because we have to build a whole lineup, not just, you know, picking a play. Is Caleb going to have a good day? It's like, what does that do for the rest of your build? Those builds do look pretty good.

They come out pretty good in projectionProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections, median, ceiling, sims. Everywhere you're going, these lineups are looking good. So more and more people are moving to that. I know there's different ways you can play within that game. But just out of curiosity, how do you handle it? Again, we always try and talk from a single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry focus and then outward. But it's how do you handle that when you have a game that you feel also like it's pretty good?

I think you said yourself in your Discord, like, I wish this game wasn't steaming as much as it is. But knowing that, I think some people just immediately move off it. Is there another way that you can handle it and do it differently? That's what I want to talk about. Yeah.

I mean, honestly, like that's one of the things that I'm kind of struggling to answer so far here this week, which is why I'm, I'm hopeful that my, my thoughts are going to be more organized by the end of the show than, than they are right now. But I think for one thing, like it's worth asking the question of watching, you know what, let's, let's kind of define the issue first.

Cause I, I, I'm not sure everyone has as clear a picture of what ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership looks like as we do. So the first thing here is, Timbo and I seem to agree that this Chicago Atlanta game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack is really kind of growing rapidly in popularity this week. And so at the beginning of the week, when I did my first run of ownership, I had Caleb Williams slightly under ten percent. I had pretty much all of his pass catchers slightly under ten percent.

Maybe Burden was like eleven or twelve percent. And I had London around twenty to twenty five and Bijan like thirty five. Now I have both Bijan and London over forty percent in single entries and high stakes. I've got Caleb up to around fifteen percent. I have Burden almost twenty percent. Rome and Loveland both over ten with a chance to get to fifteen to twenty.

So now the question is, OK, The field saw the same thing I did, which was, you know what, this game environment could be awesome and could just elevate everyone in the game. And maybe people won't be on it because we haven't really seen Chicago at full strength yet this season since week one. And that was such a weird game, even though it scored like ninety points. It wasn't, you know, fantasy gold from the Chicago side of things. So maybe people won't play it yet.

Well, it turns out people are very, uh, willing to be ahead of the curve on the Chicago offense and these stacks. So, uh, with that out the window as like a sneaky option, now the question is, okay, is it good chalk? It may be, it is right. I haven't really been able to answer this question myself, as I said, but, uh, it doesn't automatically disqualify the game for me.

And one of the main ways that I'm trying to approach it is like, okay, what could I do differently? And so one of the first thoughts that I had was actually asked here is like, what do you think of Penix London Bijan Doubles? The thought that I have first actually is what about Caleb singles with both Bichon and London as a bring backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back?

So that's something I'm going to be relying heavily on my conditional ownership tool for to see like, okay, when people go Caleb instead of Penix, are they still willing to put both of those Atlanta studs together? If the answer is yes, maybe I'll want to try to find something else.

If the answer is no, then that might be the easiest answer of all, because you know, the, the weakest part of that Chicago game stack I think pretty obviously is the trying to figure out which Chicago receiver you should actually use. Maybe we should just go back to Raymond who had, you know, who was, who's been popular on certain slates is still super cheap, but he failed one week with Case Keenum or no with, with badging to quarterback.

So now people are totally off of him, but yeah, Should that really be dictating how we feel about Raymond at this price tag? Maybe not. And so, you know, that's an option. There's also an option of just over stacking it and saying, all right, everyone's going to be choosing Caleb with one of his guys because no one wants to use two. What if I use two of the three? What if I use... Three of them.

What if I go Burden Rome and Loveland with Caleb and only use one bring back? So I think the very first question that I'm going to try to answer here is, can I stack this game in a really unique way that is actually a still sharp way and not just, you know, throwing too many roster spots out the window? And I think you can.

That's kind of the point that, you know, from my takeaways, at least from what you said, I mean, we haven't talked. Swift is still in this game. Somebody, you know, just go collect mention in the chat quickly, but like you can slice and dice and go your Gibbs Detroit D. All right, let's go Bijan and Atlanta D. We know all these Bears are steaming up late and we know Caleb is, you know, coming back. And you know, what if it's a rough first game back?

It could happen. It actually is feasible. And then what does that do for the rest of your build? So there is unique ways you can go. I think you said it best. So for like the original question, then we tried to apply it and then we're going to get to the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk field in just a second for this week.

But the idea of what we said in the previous question of like, okay, if you're going to make that move, what does it look like that you're going up against? What are you doing that's that much different or what does it get you? And I think it was a good, you know, and that's the same for this question. It's like, if you look and say, is there a way I can stack it?

Still be intelligent about it and get something that is a decent output and a good output for the rest of what I get?

Or does it give me all these good wide receivers instead of what, you know, is it Caleb Swift and Loveland and you try and eat up the end zone and now you can fill it up with good mid range receivers up the middle and decent running back still and not need all these punt wide receivers or punt tight ends or anything like that. So there is ways you can do it, but that's what I'm thinking about.

And then Taking it into the other side of it, it's like, then what are the other lineups that you're up against? I will say last week, this was the prime candidate for this, but like Detroit, Arizona. Well, it's got such a massive total gap away. It's like, yeah, but there's twelve games or eleven, whatever it was last week. It's like there's there's probably a game. You're just going off of Vegas totals, which are very accurate over time. And we get that.

But there's going to be a game or two that pop off. And then there's going to be a game or two that pop off that also have pretty, you know, pretty tight target treesTarget ShareTarget share is the percentage of a team's targets (passes thrown toward an intended receiver) that go to one player. A receiver who sees 8 of his team's 32 targets has a 25 percent target share.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Read the full definition of Target Share or ways that you would build it in a way that made sense. Swift, very popular on that slate. If people liked Christian Watson, well, lo and behold, you could play Watson with Watson, Golden and love with Swift. And it allowed you to fit Jalen Warren.

It allowed you to fit Brock Bowers or Gibbs or whatever you want to get in there, like could still fit no problem. So sometimes that's the key as well. People always act like, oh, this total is so low. A team's only going to put up like the Titans. What is their team totalTeam TotalIn NFL DFS, a team total estimates one team's points, usually from the game total and point spread. It includes scoring by the whole team, not just offensive touchdowns or fantasy production.Recheck team totals after major news, then ask which players actually benefit. If your projections already reflect the change, avoid adding another automatic boost.Read the full definition of Team Total this week? Nineteen and a half or something? It's low. It might be sixteen and a half, nineteen and a half. I'm getting it confused. But anyway, we get it.

It's less than twenty. Well, what happens if they put up nineteen points? Oh, it's an under on the nineteen and a half. But somebody put up fantasy points.

If they score nineteen points so you still have to think about what does that mean what could it be and for some teams it might be one guy that could be Tony Pollard gets two goal line touchdowns on Ward bombs to the end zone that Tate gets mauled or anything like that and it's like okay Pollard gets that he's the game goes back and forth in the beginning a little bit Pollard ends up being the cheap running back that you need.

And you're like, holy shit, he was getting all the attempts before this game. It could go that way. And if it does, you're going to need that. Oh, but they only scored nineteen points. But Pollard had two touchdowns and one hundred yards, et cetera, et cetera. You're like, damn, they still need you still need it. Right. That's kind of how I look at this type of stuff. So it matters about that stuff when you're going into it as well.

Anything else you want to add on that topic? If not, I'd like to get to the chalk build for the week here.

Yeah well maybe not maybe we should come back what do you want to do do you want to come back to this game or do you want to now that we've started to talk about just kind of talk through all the different ways that we could potentially get back because it's going to be again ways to leverage and we know it's going to mix in there but I'm actually very curious I think it'll help apply to that conversation if we do get sort of what we see being the popular build-in so it's Give me your starting point on that.

And then we'll see how it flips to that version. And then we can talk about how we can leverage all of it together. So we'll just start with this. Cool. So yeah, in terms of the truck build, I think... It's definitely a week where people want to jam in some studs, right? Like the three most popular guys that I've got at or above forty percent in single entries and high stakes are Puka, Bajon and Drake London.

So that's $8,100 $8,700 $7,000. People are going to need to save money somewhere. And it does look to me like the two places people are saving money most frequently are wide receiver and tight end, right? Like we've got the Worthy chalk. We've got Likely and Goedert chalk.

I think there will be some cheap running back usage, but like quote unquote cheap running back is what, you know, Braylon Allen at $5,700, whereas a lot of the guys that we're already talking about at wide receivers, Xavier Worthy, Luther Burden, like all these guys are cheaper than that. Carnell Tate, $5,000. So I think it definitely seems to me like outside of Algier, who might be somewhat popular, $4,800 kind of. TBD on that one.

We'll see how much people actually like that or feel the need to go to that. But it definitely seems to me like the build is primarily save money at tight end and wide receiver so that you can spend upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up elsewhere. And that's a fun one, I think, to try and counter and be better than because I think that there are some really intriguing options, both in the mid-range and... High pricing of wide receiver, but then also Brock Bowers. Right.

And so anytime there's a lot of cheap tight end ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership, I'm very interested in the, the expensive tight end Brock Bowers route and hope that he can just dominate this. Like I'm interested in Bowers every week right now. Cause like I said, continuously, you've said it, I've said it, we've been just talking about it consistently. It's like, I don't think people understand.

They just constantly, maybe I said this already if I did, cause I've just been saying it a million times, but I think I said it pre-show to you, but it's like, Oh, now he's all the way up to $7,500. Like people just keep going nuts about this price. It's a capped onesie position. They can't make he's scoring better than your $9,000 wide receivers week after week. But he can't get to that price. So you have to figure it out elsewhere.

And then people act like it's some crazy thing to figure it out. It's like you can you have. Four or five receivers that are valueValueValue is the fantasy production you expect from a player relative to his salary. A value play offers more production or upside than his price suggests, whether he is cheap or expensive.Identify why the salary looks wrong: workload, matchup, scoring ability or a pricing error. Then check whether that reason still holds when you submit your lineup.Read the full definition of Value plays. You've got running backs that are plenty of them from $4,800 to $6,300 that there's options you can go to. It's like there's there's so many ways to go to be able to fit them in if you want to. But again, people just choose not to in a lot of cases.

And they'll say, oh, you still get ownership. What was he last week? Twelve, fifteen percent. Like it's eighty to ninety percent of the people aren't playing him. That's a pretty big number. Right. So, yeah. I just threw this version up. Tell me where it's horrible if you want, but it ends up being an extra wide receiver, but James, it's got Nabers. I went with Braylon Allen and the Jets. Jets seem to be pretty popular down low for a cheap tee. It's got Goedert.

It's got Worthy. It's got Puka. It's got London and I think Williams is also going to be very popular on this slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate at $6,800, especially when people are. I mean, look, any version, if they build a version with him and hookah, they're like, oh, I can get to Stafford if they're going to do a Stafford stack without him. OK, then that's the only spot he's not in.

But but then what that makes their brain do is say, oh, if I'm not on a Stafford lineup and I'm not on hookah, I better get Williams in there. So it's like he pretty much ends up.

In a lot of lineups that's why I tried to include him over making something work to get to bijan but I'm sure there's just a version of this that swaps out London I don't know if it's man I'm trying to think about what it is like if people didn't go I just they're going to puka so I'm trying to figure out what the version is where you get to the you know you've seen the version with like Nabers Likely and then maybe john somehow gets into it it's that's yeah I I think I think one of the things we can do here is we could take out James and you could go Stafford and it'd just be a skinny between Stafford and Puka.

And then people will use double tight end. And so that could be, you know, Higbee instead of Nabers and that, that makes the rest work. Yeah. Let's see Higbee. And then let's get back to Puka obviously. And then what do we got left? Seventy eight fifty. I might be able to get Bijan and London. How's that version for you? Yeah.

So that to me- Random because it's probably not exactly the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build, but the idea of you can still fit a lot in when you do that and pick the poison. Yeah. I mean, I wouldn't necessarily call it the chalk build, but I also think that there isn't really a chalk build. What we've been able to do here is show that the pieces exist such that people can correlateCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation and jam in all the studs that they want. And- who does that force people onto?

Like, okay, this helps explain why Xavier Worthy is going to be over on this week. It's not because thirty percent of people think Xavier Worthy is an awesome play. It's that thirty percent of people think that Xavier Worthy is a good enough play to warrant using in order to fit all the studs that they want. And so I think this is a really helpful view of things. And then, you know, there are other pieces you threw Kyron in there.

And I think we're going to talk a little bit more about Kyron soon. Yes, I think so as well. So one thing you said there, and it can go back to now the Chicago Atlanta conversation because we're moving into like how to leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage. There we go. Lucky dog on the week. Yeah. So I mentioned that my dad's my my brother and my dad, I think, just went to breakfast. So the two dogs are now locked in here and whining. So if you hear that, it's this guy.

You usually mean what's what's the name? This one's Poe named after the Potomac Rivers and chances on the bed in there. All right, Poe and Chance. Chance won't be an issue. Chance is the best. Polka Nacua over there. That's a sign. We got to get it in this week.

So let's look at it here for a second to say back to the Chicago Atlanta because I think the one thing key to me that you pointed out is like the, you know, you see this and it's not really a chalk build. It's very centered around, let's say, even Allen Robinson Williams. London, Puka, Worthy, Goedert, Likely, and then you could fill in a few more spots if you want Nabers, maybe.

So there's versions of that, but it's because it's so easy to flip it, right? Someone says, well, I don't want Bijan and London together. Okay, well, let me look at this for a second. All right, I want to see what this does. Well, let me go to James Winston. Let me go to Nabers. Now I feel much better about that. And oh, I don't need Higbee. I got eighteen hundred bucks left. What can I get for Higbee? You know, $5,200.

Oh, you go down and see. I don't know who's in this range that you want to go to. I don't really love anything right here. Oh, wait. I heard that, you know, I could get Likely into this and now I can bump up my defense. And I heard that the Panthers are playing against Tanner McKee. So where's the Panthers that I should just sort of my ownership and we'll find them quickly. Yeah, they'll be they'll be very, very popular.

And so someone says, oh, I don't have a run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back for this, but I've got Winston, I've got Nabers, I've got Likely. I mean, of course, the same thing that happened last week, the exact same thing is going to happen this week, and they're all going to get thirty plus points or whatever. So let me get them in there. Allen, still no Hall, still no Adonai Mitchell. He's been getting a huge workload. B. John, he's the guy I want in this game.

He's my piece of that Atlanta game. And then Puka is the best play. Worthy's in that one spot. That makes a ton of sense. And then I've got, you know, Goedert against the Panthers. They might not like. So let's put Likely in there like you can move it around, but you get the gist of what I'm trying to say. Right. You can get to these builds pretty easily or pretty comfortably where you just can put this stuff in. It's funny.

Like I, this is the exact thing that I was going to suggest doing next is just showing that like, okay, no matter what stack we put in, whether it's, you know, James Likely and Nabers, people are going to find ways to, to build something similar to this. And yeah, it's basically like, We're going to see a lot of stacks this week where just like the Worthy play, it's not that people necessarily love the stack. It's that they think, hey, you know what?

I was able to correlate and save enough money here that I can go get the studs that I want. And so I think that's kind of the number one thing that we need to think about this week. For example, I have a really contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian cheap stack that I'll talk about that I have interest in. Am I doing that so that I can go play the same studs that everyone else is playing? Or am I doing that so I can play different studs like that?

That's the kind of thing that we need to be asking ourselves this week. Yeah, I'm just like a lot of these versions. Again, we'll see what people flip it to. But again, maybe it's it's not Bijan and it's not Puka. And that's what I said. I think there's versions of this where people just get comfortable and say, I'd rather have Puka. But they also can easily talk themselves into saying, well, he's not going to get twenty four targets again. So I'll just play London.

And now I've got $6,700 bucks left. I can get, you know, DeAndre Swift, Michael Wilson, Devante Adams, whatever you want. And this is just one version of it. What is this six?

Who's that uh you know maybe it's Warren and the Jets d or something like that my point being there's just a ton of different ways that you could look at it I've got the Panthers in there now I could take this down to where's the Jets here let's see The Jets, now I feel comfortable with... What's his name there? Goedert. And that leaves me $7,900.

Again, you kind of land in some of these dead zones, but you're close enough to be able to make a move. Like, again, Puka gets in there and then you got the money left over for... How much was Stafford? Sixty four. Yeah, you're getting pretty close with it, but you get you get the idea of how all these guys can kind of fit into a build together. So sticking with that Chicago Atlanta, right?

You talked about it earlier of like ways to get different with it. What what is your first thought when we go to leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage something like that on this slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate for for your builds? Well, it's kind of a perfect segue because that comment from Berger just now, he's basically saying, you know, the Kirk Trey Bowers conditional ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership is so high, but maybe you can get different elsewhere. The conditional ownerships don't matter for stacks that are this cheap.

And they don't really matter for stacks that are this contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian. Again, it's not like this is a super, super unique stack, but when we care about conditional ownership within the stack, it's when we are trying to, number one, win the slate with a specific stack, and The Chicago Atlanta game, I think is a really good example of the type of stack where we should care about the conditional ownership within the stack.

Because number one, if you're using like all the main pieces of this stack, you're using Caleb, you're using Bijan, you're using Drake London. There's just not a whole lot of salary you have elsewhere to go find potential separators. Even if you think that Xavier Worthy is a good play this week, you probably don't think that he's going to win you the slate. You're just thinking he does well enough so that the other guys can win you the slate.

So that's when conditional ownership really matters. I don't really care about it with Kirk, Trey, and Bowers. But as it pertains to the Chicago stack, the first question that I had is how many people are going to be willing to use Bajon and London together? And so the first thing that I brought up is The conditional ownership for Bajon when London is in and neither quarterback from this game is used.

And there we do see that there's a clear preference to use just one and not both. We get thirty nine percent overall ownership for Bajon, twenty five percent conditional ownership with London in, neither quarterback in. The problem here is that doesn't translate to game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack. And even when it's Caleb who's in, so, you know, typically we would say, all right, they're more Likely to be used together with Penix, even with Caleb in.

We've got a fifty two and a half projected conditional ownership for Bajon with Caleb and Drake London in that. That's a little bit scary to me that that tells me that like, you know, just having that combination and getting the big score from all those guys, from Caleb, from London, from Bajon, they can't win me the slate. They're going to be way too many other people with that combination. I have to get the cheapies right to make that work. That's not my preferred build, right?

Like I never want to win slates by having the right $3,300 guy unless it's potentially part of the stack. And so I've got the conditional ownership tool up. I don't know if you want to show it here, Tambo, but there are there are a couple of views that I think are really interesting here. So again, Caleb in Drake London in. Let's take a look at all of the flex plays from this game.

You can see a lot of conditional ownership on Bajon. Tons, of course, on Burden and Rome and Loveland. But there are two guys who really stand out to me as, you know what, that's a really reasonable conditional ownership. The first is DeAndre Swift at just fourteen percent. And then the second is Khalif Raymond way down here at six point three percent. I always like trying to find a contrarian way to play a stack that also saves me money.

Cause now I get the double out of like, I don't, I don't necessarily need Raymond to beat Burden, to beat Rome, to beat Loveland. I just need him to do somewhat similar enough to those guys that now that savings is whether it's the four hundred dollars to Loveland or, you know, a thousand or fifteen hundred to Rome or Burden. Now I can potentially separate from these stacks because I get one more really good player.

You know, maybe that means Malik Nabers instead of Carnell Tate, for example. And maybe Tate has the same game that he had just had last week and Nabers has the same game he just had last week. And now I just won by thirty points in that spot. So that's, I think, a really intriguing way to do this and actually find a contrarian way to build this game stack that is really, I don't think, sacrificing a ton from a ceiling or projectionProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections standpoint.

And another thing about that, too, is just from the NFL roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Read the full definition of Roster Construction data, a lot of people don't stack their quarterback with their running back or not as much as they seemingly should. And that's like when you're doubling down and seeing that it's again, what we talked about earlier in the topical segment of just going through some ideas and your evergreen things. It's like, can you see it being different in an intelligent way? Well, what could be more than that?

Your conditional ownership is showing it works out. It obviously makes sense. By the way, Manunga is still out. Like it's not like Strip just got worse, but his seventeen points last week wasn't satisfying. Well, just like Nabers may or may not get thirty this week.

Swift could get thirty this week and not seventeen I could flip flop there and like just an example so um and then you put the roster construction data to say well that would make sense too and then you put some game theory on it well the right Raymond is an exact example of what we talked about earlier with the Worthy situation it's like could you just play another guy could you just play um Goedert at tight end and then get a better wide receiver Yeah, it'd probably project better.

But Raymond fits the stack. If he actually has a ceiling, he eats into the popular guys in the conditional ownership and all of that. And now you still have the money for London and or Bijan. You can still get after this game. And with Swift being in it, the conditional ownership, Raymond by himself, plus being in it, like all those factors adding up, it doesn't matter what London is anymore or what Bijan is anymore. So...

I think it's kind of interesting from that perspective when you do look at it and just see what you can do differently. Would you carry on with that at all? Like are you saying like if you would go – let's say it was Caleb, Swift, Raymond. Are you kind of cutting it off and then just picking your poison on London versus – Bijan, first off, that's my first question. You can answer however you like.

I think if I'm using Raymond, I'm trying to make the full game stack a little bit cheaper. And so I'd probably leave it as just Caleb Raymond on the Chicago side and then go with both Bijan and London on the Atlanta side and do it that way. This is another kind of interesting view. So I put Penix in instead of Caleb. And you can see the Bajon ownership is crazy, crazy high. Swift comes up a decent amount.

Vernon and Rome are still coming up, but they're not skyrocketing. This is really interesting to me. Raymond, just point seven conditional ownership. You get the huge bump on pits, which also means Loveland conditional ownership comes down. So that's another interesting route is like, what about Penix, London, Bajon with the Loveland bring back?

And there you're saying like, One of the things we know is when tight ends tend to have their biggest games, think like the Dalton Schultz chalk week this year, a lot of that is the offense is struggling to get the explosives down the field, and it's just eight to twelve yards over and over again to the tight end in the middle of the field, which doesn't usually lead to ceilingCeilingCeiling is the high end of a player's or lineup's realistic range of fantasy scores. It describes a big performance that could happen when things go well, not the expected score or an absolute maximum.Describe what must happen for each player to have a huge game. Then check whether those conditions help or hurt the other players in your lineup.Read the full definition of Ceiling performances from the quarterback.

So one of the ways that Penix keeps pace with Caleb is if the Chicago offense has to run on the ground and through the tight end instead. And then you get the maybe explosives on the Atlanta side instead. So that also is an intriguing way. I think there are a number of answers, but this is kind of like the ultimate reason why I built this conditional ownership tool. I think this makes stacking in an intelligent way just infinitely easier than it used to be.

Yeah, another thing I think about too is if you could like the Penix, Bijan, London, fine, but then like just Raymond to speed the game up, but he's the Trey Tucker version of what we talked about earlier. He's the guy you need that has the forty-yard touchdown and everything, but it allows you now to boost up and still save these other spots. And that was going to be my second part.

I know you talked already about like double, doubling it and just getting Bijan and London in there. My thought process too was going to like, if you're doing the Raymond thing in the sense of that, you're using a $3,900 wide receiver to eat in, which can eat into Odunze and Burden or just enough that it makes it worth it and boosts up your ability to get more at other positions.

Is there any thought process to like, maybe that's where you play Bijan because you can boost up like everyone has like a lot of people have London. So a lot of people have Bijan, but you'd be able to get two more explosive wide receivers that could take from the Chicago guys, but also take from London and you still get Bijan in those stacks, but it makes sense. Yeah.

I mean, this is another one of the parts of this slate that I'm having such a hard time thinking through because in that scenario, like, I kind of think I'd rather just have one of the quarterbacks that's being carried by one of those elite alpha wide receivers. I had a lot of success last week. I cashed with main slate with zero from Roman Wilson and one point six from Casey Concepcion, whatever I got from them.

So you know, and that was because I played through the alpha wide receivers of Denzel Boston and Garrett Wilson in that game. I had Deshaun Watson who did very little, but they did enough and Wilson was awesome. And so I feel like if I'm, if I'm just building a stack to save that much money so that I can go get like alpha receivers elsewhere, well, shouldn't I just be using a quarterback that benefits from those alpha receiver ceiling performances?

So it's, it's hard to think through that way, but yeah, At the same time, this game environment is so good that I feel very strongly that fantasy points are going to be scored here. So if I don't want the main Chicago wide receivers, if I don't want both London and Bajon, it's like, okay, well, that probably means someone cheap is doing really well in this game. And so it's very much in play to do it that way.

And it's one of the really, really tricky things about this slate. I will say this is still tricky though, to get to a good tight end in those. I mean, a good is subjective. So I should say like a, and it, one of the expensive tight ends, because even if you drop down to Penix at $5,000, if you are dropping almost $9,000 on Bijan and $7,000 on London, yes, that unlocks their ceiling. So it should be great for everything.

But if you've even got Swift and Raymond in there and go with like a cheap running back, cheap D you're still only left with $5,000 per position and you need a tight end and a wide receiver. So even if you, punted at wide receiver, it's going to be really tricky to be able to get up. You're not going to get to like a Brock Bowers or anything like that. So I'd be thinking about that for those as you're building.

That's where you want to be thinking that thought as well. What does that leave me for money? And I'm just playing around with it, looking at a few situations, but There's some interesting ways you can go and just versions of that that I looked at that would at least make sense, right? That you can get to. So where do you want to go next when it comes to leveraging the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build? I'm just trying to put a few things together here and see what I've got.

There's a question in the chat that I think is interesting to answer here, which is like, given how many people are trying to save money at tight end, does it make sense to use both Bowers and McBride? So- Here's another kind of conditional ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership view where we see if Bowers is in McBride's conditional ownership is going down to one point two percent. And so this isn't like universal of all tight ends. Right. Like you see Kelsey's a little bit more than you'd expect.

Now, the reason why. So the conditional ownership goes down here to four percent and then you still get a positive delta. Why is that? Well, because there's now fewer spots. So this is essentially saying, like, if if all these guys were independent of one another, if there was no connection between who someone clicks on once they've already clicked on somebody else, is this more or less than what you'd expect?

And so this is less than for McBride, which does mean that people are actively trying not to put these guys together. So there is an advantage there.

You can see that a ton with Likely, which is, I think is pretty surprising, which basically says like when people go, too Likely they're trying to get uh Nabers and they're trying to get a lobby in there and that in and of itself makes them just like it's impossible to go get Bowers now too especially because they probably want one of bajan or London things of that nature and so you can find some really cool stuff there but at the same rate like

You don't get that effect with frying if you don't get that effect with fanon and so uh you know you don't get it with Goedert and so that part I think is really interesting to see But yeah, so this is kind of a long-winded way of saying this is something I've been opposed to in the past, but I think it probably makes a little bit more sense than I've given it credit for because of how low this conditional ownership is.

I mean, if you get, you know, it's, they're starting to get to a price where like, I don't really, so essentially like the reason why I've been against this in the past is because if you're using both these guys, you're not just hoping that they beat all of these other tight ends and separate from the tight end position, but you're also now asking them to separate from Olave and James Cook and Tet and Zay Flowers and Drake London. That's a much larger ask of these guys.

Yeah. But when they do have their ceilingCeilingCeiling is the high end of a player's or lineup's realistic range of fantasy scores. It describes a big performance that could happen when things go well, not the expected score or an absolute maximum.Describe what must happen for each player to have a huge game. Then check whether those conditions help or hurt the other players in your lineup.Read the full definition of Ceiling performances, yeah, it's going to be that much more valuable because that combination is that much lower on. So it's still something that like, I'm very hesitant about, and I'm skeptical even when it sims really well. But given the fact that this sort of thing has simmed pretty well, and now I see the conditional ownership that maybe explains why it sims better than I've expected, it's something that's growing on me a little bit.

I wouldn't go so far as to say I'm gung-ho for it by any means yet, but it's probably better than I've given credit for in the past. Yeah, for me, it's like typically the same, but I will say this. So it's a couple of different ways to say it. One is the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate dynamics matter.

When you go and look at that range, it's to what the reason it is, because what Alex's point is, you're using up a flex that can be any of these guys. I know you say like, oh, Trey McBride, seventy two. You I have to just compare it to this because it's dollar for dollar and it's one. I get it. But, you know, the defense has a place it can go. There's another way you can make a swap to find five hundred bucks.

Either way so realistically and I'll go up a little bit further I'll say eight hundred because it just does exist whether you want to agree with me or not it's you know we're not asking you everyone always acts like it has to be a one v one swap as if you're not allowed to change your lineup it's the same uh rant or tambo tangent that I gave on garbage time points oh man this brissette always gets his stuff in garbage time this is dumb okay I looked at the drafting scoring you It doesn't say you don't get the same points during garbage time.

It's like they count. So however they get them, they get them. You have the ability to go further. So to Alex's point, without even getting aggressive and including Puka, because he might already be in there, but you've got JT, Olave, James Cook, Ted McMillan, Zay, London, Warren, who else here? Let's use some real guys. Tyler. Uh, Kyron, like Swift, all those options are in the realm.

Now on the flip side of that is if to me, it's actually way more about does Trey McBride fit your lineup? Because if you're doing something there where it makes sense, then now I can't go against my word on, you know, why would you play those other guys when you can just play Bowers at That's how I would think about it.

And it's kind of the same thing, not a capo, but it's to note, I think the McBride part matters more to me because if you're using McBride in an intelligent way and saying that he fits the build or he's what's going to make my Stafford lineup tick, I have actually want this to be a ceiling spot. So I've got my Stafford stack with McBride, but I happen to have the money left over for Olave or for Bowers.

Well, then I might say, okay, then I'm fine with it because realistically it's like, you don't really have anything else going on with it. You don't have shock. You don't have Winston. You don't have anything that really requires a lobby. And obviously we know Bowers is at seven, five hundred still a good deal. So to me, that's where I would consider it a little bit differently. But I think people are just asking it as like, this is my point from last week.

Um, Takedown Breakdown, we did this on Monday. If you just looked at how they started the line, again, we don't know how someone actually did it, but I think this is what I'm trying to say. People are starting their lineup going, two really good tight ends, now what? And they put them both in. It should be the other way. It's like you have McBride, your lineup makes sense, and then you're like, all right, I could play Bowers here. Does that make sense?

Well, now it does. Even though it's the same ending point as your starting point, one makes more sense than the other. Last week, we don't know, but we were just reverse engineering and having fun with it. But the guy who won the Milly Maker, wasn't that crazy? It had like Warren, no doubt. It had Swift, no man on guy.

It like all the stuff kind of made sense when you put it together opposite Swift, it had Watson, but he wasn't playing love, but he had love in his pool heavily. So it's like in a lineup that doesn't have like it all made perfect sense. And if you really just thought about it, everyone always says, all right, What quarterback are we going to? And as if you have to stack first, it's like, all right, what do I want in my lineup?

That's almost a non-negotiable. Like I'm not moving off this. I'm going to try and find out any, again, later on, you might have to make a slight move and make some of these decisions. And that's why two V twos exist and things that we always talk about. But if you have a starting point, the heart of your lineup doesn't always need to be the quarterback stack. Like everybody just assumes, right?

It's easy to work your lineup that way, but you can also get into like your biases and things that way too, where you're like, all right, I got this stack. Now I need these cheap running backs because I need money and boom, boom. And it looks good and makes sense. But you're realized like, damn, I didn't even play my favorite running back in that lineup, or I didn't play my top receiver that I had. And, Somebody had it last week.

They had, uh, you know, their pool was littered with these three wide receivers that they were high on, but that was like the piece they could have used in their lineup and to close it out. And it would have been a much bigger week for them. And it's like, they didn't work backwards.

They, that lineup, they just went and built and were like, damn, I didn't even play my my top owned stuff and so you liked it and loved it in another spot but when you went to your single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry whatever process you had there eliminated your top owned guys and favorite exposures so I shouldn't say top on your top exposures on the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate which I'm assuming you wouldn't expose yourself to them if you didn't like them for the slate so it's just funny how that stuff works but anything else to add on just roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Read the full definition of Roster Construction process when it comes to you know where do you start and what do you find your way getting to to start your lineup build No, I think that covered it well.

And I think that it's kind of important to have the starting point vary depending on the slate. And so the way that I like to approach it is I try to find the largest price inefficiencies and the largest ownership inefficiencies and kind of build around those, whatever I think they are. Yeah. One other thing I'll add too, because somebody... Brought it up before and we talked about it throughout the week here.

I have one of the, um, the mastermind Q and a round tables, and this was a good topic. And so I'll bring it up here. Also DFS Mastermind.com. If you guys want to check that out, but we talked about the concept of like, I always use it of like building out and I call it $40,000 feet above. I know it's a single entry show, but this is about single entry.

Like I like to build everything out first and and then work backwards from that because it allows me to see like, what am I exposed to? What combos go together that I might not have been thinking about? But realistically, the big part for me, Alex, is when you start to see what lineups look the best together and not just like anyone this week could say, oh, you know, I think Josh Allen's in a smash spot. Yeah, probably.

And Josh Allen's Likely to have a very good week. But do those lineups come together? Or are you like, damn, I hate this lineup. And there's like, I'm forcing this, I'm forcing that. I'm missing three of my favorite guys now because of it. It's like, if you don't work out to see what that looks like, and even if you're playing single entry, you can do this.

You can use an optimizerOptimizerAn optimizer is software that builds DFS lineups within a site's salary cap and roster rules. It uses projected fantasy points, your settings and, in some tools, simulations to select combinations for a chosen goal.Build a small test batch first. Check which players and combinations repeat, and investigate why before increasing the lineup count or changing settings.Read the full definition of Optimizer or anything that you have access to and put like eight of your favorite quarterbacks in.

Leave a lot of the other stuff but let's just see lineups with those stay you got your rules or your optimizer sim is putting out for you and you start to see like what does that look like don't just go by median projectionProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections and all of that look at like some of the game theory angles look at wow that stack makes sense that's my favorite running back that's my favorite titan and I noticed from watching the show today that that's a high leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage point on this like damn

That's got it all Yeah, that's the point that I was going to add is like, you know, sometimes you're going to look at lineups and you're going to say like, yeah, okay, I like all the plays in this lineup, but it feels a little bit like I'm just hoping that I'm right about all these guys. Whereas with this stack, I like all the plays and they tell a very coherent story about how certain chalk that I'm not using fails, so on and so forth.

So that one's probably better from a game theory and just like from a playing the game of DFS perspective. A hundred percent. And I think also that's where your focus should be. Again, people, we try and steer people in the right direction. It's like the other way. And it goes kind of to Ryan Coleman question here said, and we've talked a ton about this in the past.

We don't have to rehash the whole thing, but it says won my first five to five ticket besides avoiding playing it safe, which can mean a lot of things by the way, but it says any other advice for differences in playing a higher entry type tournament. I think that would be one of the key concepts is a lot of people would look at even a lineup. That's not super popular.

Let's say it's like, um, don't know this week we just talked about it earlier but let's say it is the Kirk Cousins trey Tucker Brock Bowers Keon Coleman stack and it's like because they you know they feel like it's different enough and they're good with it but then they don't really love the lineup or the rest of it and it's not like it is like the best by far lineup or anything like that it's just they feel good a little bit but then they see another lineup where they just see oh man that really flows together it would leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage what everybody's doing here it still has an even better projectionProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections.

It still Sims well, if they're using Sims, like there's all these other factors to it and it tells a better story and it's not the same as everybody else is going to be doing in just like one offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off different way. That to me is like when you're looking for potential for both, right? You've got floor, you've got upside, you've got something that makes sense.

You've got something that you can go to war with and say, if it didn't work out, at least I went to war with what was best for this tournament. And that's called lineup selection. A lot of people focus on contest selection. You don't need to worry about it. You have a $555 ticket. Your contest has been selected, but you do need to focus on lineup selection. It's very rarely, rarely talked about in the industry.

I know Alex and I talk about it a ton, but that to me matters so much more in this scenario. Yeah, I have a pretty lengthy kind of just strategy channel in my Discord dedicated to exactly this question. Although I would phrase it slightly different. The unique thing about your experience this week, Ryan, is not that it's a higher entry fee tournament. It's that you're going up against a lot of people who have...

A lot of different entries and you only have the one single bullet. And so there's, there's a lot of strategy kind of revolved around how you can take that advantage away from the people who have so many more bullets than you do here. Uh, we did a segment on this last week, so you can go check out last week's leverage lane.

Uh, you know, you'll see the timestamp that, that kind of spells that out and, and, like the the tldr version is essentially the thing you want to avoid is running into lineups from you know one guy where let's say it's the Chicago Atlanta game this week right where they they have that game stacked twenty different ways and like there's there isn't a combination of the main players where they could have a quarterback two on one side and one on the

You get the combination right and they don't if you get the combination right they've got that combination if you don't get the combination right there's a good chance they have that combination so my my biggest piece of advice is try to land on either a game or an iteration of the most popular game that is so unique that you're not going up against multiple iterations of the same lineup that you have where someone else just like you know pick the pick the three weakest spots in the lineup You only have one chance to get those three right.

They have ten different chances to get those three right because they have the same iteration over and over and over again, kind of built around getting that weakest part of the lineup correct. That's the thing you want to avoid as much as possible. This is such a perfect segue. I want to take one break in between to show something that goes with Ryan's questions.

We can look this stuff up now, but that's going to go with pick a lane in a second when we talk about it, because there's all these types of things that pick a lane, an example for people. When we get there, like, I'm just going to ask Alex, like Worthy or Kelley.

Right and obviously I want the game theory behind it and the onesie position and like how that leverage like it goes right in with leverage lane but um dfsos if you guys haven't checked it out dfsos.com see how the best DFS players actually play if you go to the dashboard and you can use code ship it to get half price it's it's a ton of data that you can look up but if you go to slate review here alex and I'm going to try and look it up change it to Did we have a $555 this month already?

I'm just trying to see. I don't know if it was this month. It might have been like at the end of last month. Yeah, there's been a couple of megas there, but if I go to September then, and let's look on Sundays, this is it, right? Yeah, $5,000 four hundred and ninety three entries. If you go in and see, I'm trying to see here like, man, I'm always the worst with this for looking it up on the fly, but I'm sure it's very easy.

I just was trying to see how many people max entered150-MaxA 150-max DFS contest allows you to submit up to 150 entries into that contest, paying the entry fee for each. Max entering means using every allowed entry, whether the contest limit is 150 or a smaller number.Multiply the entry fee by your planned entry count before building. If you cannot justify additional lineups on their own merits, leave the remaining entries unused.Read the full definition of 150-Max this contest. And I know the data is there, so apologies, but yeah, Do the math. Let's do it separately then because I don't have it right in front of me and it's my bad for not knowing this off the top. It's a lot. The other thing is it's not even necessarily just about what percentage of people or what percentage of entries are part of larger portfolios.

It's also recognizing that the sharpest players are also the most Likely to have multiple lineupsMulti-EntryMulti-entry means entering more than one lineup into the same contest. A contest's entry limit, such as 3, 20 or 150, sets how many lineups one user can submit.Set your total spend for the slate first, then divide it into entries. Multi-entry should spread a fixed budget across more outcomes, not raise how much you put at risk.Read the full definition of Multi-Entry. And so when you're thinking about, okay, how do I win this Milly? The number one thing you have to do is you have to beat all of the people who have a bunch of different lineups because they're the best players and they have the advantage of being able to inversely correlateCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation between their lineups. Yeah, I was trying to find it.

I don't see it here, but I just want to note it off the top. Like the quickest math is how many people would you estimate out of the fifty four ninety three entries? Or just say it this way. It is one fifty max. How many people do you think max the tournament? Yeah, I would, I would put it to something like that. I don't really know. Right.

So if we do the a hundred and obviously the, you know, the thought process is it, well, is it a hundred? No, it can't be a hundred. That would be, that'd be $15,000. Yeah. So I said, like, we're way off. It's fifty four. Is this $2,000 $2,000 contestants? So, yeah, I would guess something like, I don't know, fifteen to twenty or full maxing it.

But, you know, then there are also a bunch that have fifteen and they're also a bunch that have twenty five or something like that. And they can all do the same sort of thing. Yeah, I think it's one fifty is the max for this one, though. I guess my point was what I was trying to show is even if it's only. I don't know, like. However many people would be. The point is when people say like, I'll get to the point.

When someone's like, hey, I want to play this stack because yeah, it's not that popular, but this quarterback is only, you know, ten percent. There's a couple that are fourteen and fifteen. I'm really playing the third highest quarterback. And you look to conditional ownership and you can apply all these things together. The main point being is that if ten percent are on a quarterback, that's over five hundred lineups.

That you're up against like your one lineup is still standing in a five hundred Person room and yes there's other spots to get different we harp on this all the time but it's it's not to say go completely off the wall it's to look at something like what alex was just talking about where if you had a uh a penix Bijan London Raymond swift you're on the same game but man you are on different spots there in that game and you're in in different ways within that game so even if Five hundred lineups have Caleb Williams.

How many of them have Caleb or sorry, Penix? How many of those Penix lineups have Swift and Raymond in them? You could be down to a room of three, if not less, just like that. And it's like, damn, I'm in the same spot. Everybody else was chilling. But I mean, I'm just that much different when the game starts going that way. And then the Burden. Um, you know, failure happens and then a bunch of people exit the room. Like they're already done.

They've got this massive failure in their lineup and maybe they're not all the way done. They pick it up elsewhere. But my point being, if Raymond really smashes, not only do you have a unique construction, but while you were standing in a busy room to start, you are able to, I sound like AI right now. They always say, you're in the room with this. And in a room like that, you're not as sharp or something.

But my point being, I always use the analogy of standing in an auditorium or a room, in this case, where there's five hundred Penix owners and the way their lineups are built. A lot exit if Burden, Odunze, some of the other stuff, Pitts, those ones fail.

But if you've got Raymond and he's what's needed with Penix to make that game go back and forth and then the other stuff starts to hit, you do enter a totally separate room where it is very quiet and you're able to say like, damn, I got room here now to be able to actually win this thing And you didn't play stupid. You just played in a completely unique way in a spot everybody else was already going to. So hopefully that makes some sense.

It can help you out there once I finally got to the point. But math, not so easy on an early Saturday morning for me here. And that's why I got my data guy, Alex, on the other side. All right. I don't have too much else to add, but do you want, I guess before we do pick a lane, because we have time, did you want to do any other game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack you wanted to talk about? We often will bring those into play.

I know people talked about it. We did hit on some of the others. I mean, I was showing it on the screen while you were talking about some of the other stuff to people, but a lot of the game stacks are the same price. Again, somewhat different positions, but just to, I don't even want to rehash it. Like if you went, it was Caleb Odunze Burden with Bijan was like $25,000 two hundred.

I know it doesn't include a tight end and the Kirk version does. If you go to a Kirk Tucker, James Cook Bowers, but it's like the same money. Again, it's $25,000. So everything is kind of in that $25,000 range to build a three one stack. Some of it involves different positions, which does matter. But just noting it, it's like that is where the stacks are at. Is there other game stacks on the slate? You had a fun one pre show.

Maybe we'll hit that. But is there other stuff you want to talk about, like when it pertains to the Rams or I got more on the Rams coming. So just want to bring that up.

Um my leverage lane is going to touch on on the one that I think you just hinted at so I'll save that one uh one I will touch on first though is like I I think we should be giving some consideration to Josh Allen and we do need the dj more news but I I think This is an intriguing spot to do a really contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian single stack with a double bring backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back because I think you could really get away with Josh Allen plus one of his guys, whether it's DJ Moore, Dolan Kincaid, whoever, and then use both Bowers and Trey Tucker as the bring back.

I think the reason why this can work is like, know we just saw jsn have a pretty good game where it was all just ppr value and you could get the same sort of thing for Bowers like let's say Bowers goes thirteen for one forty and zero touchdowns trey Tucker goes four catches ninety yards and a touchdown it's like that in and of itself That might mean Kirk Cousins gets fifteen DraftKings points. You don't need that.

What if Josh Allen has forty on the way back because he adds two rushing touchdowns, throws one to the guy that you're using? The game could really go off that way and You know, any Trey Tucker production is speeding up the game. So you could get like a really great game environment where Cousins doesn't do a ton. Josh Allen scores a massive, massive score and you get kind of the full benefit that way. And you only have to sacrifice potentially one skill position guy with Josh Allen.

Cause we, we all know that like, even when he goes for forty or forty five, his skill position guys fail all the damn time. And so it's it's really kind of a risk to stack him, even though Josh Allen is Josh Allen. And so that's that's an intriguing way to go about things this week.

And one of the other things I like about that is even though the sack itself is expensive, it's At least then, I'm using the stack to include one of the guys I want to pay upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up for in Brock Bowers, and I don't have to find another way to do that. Whereas every other stack, let's say I'm trying to go to New York and I want Nabers, or maybe I want Olave in there.

It's like every single thing, it's like, okay, well, how do I get those guys and save myself room to go get Brock Bowers as well on top of this? This is just like a way to almost cut out the middleman in a weird sort of way where I don't need to find additional room for Bowers because I'm just including him here in the stack. Yeah, I think there's also another intriguing factor to this is somebody mentioned in the chat.

And by the way, definitely not going to this one. I'll bring it up. But this is Leverage Lane, not Narrative Street. That's where the name comes from. We don't really care that it's his birthday. But I do think it's really interesting, actually. Now, just again, we talked about this pre-show where Alex will say, so I'll say something. He'll be like, oh, that gave me an interesting thought. And then he just said something gave me an interesting thought. So...

A hundred dollars less than Josh Allen at a different position is a pretty, I think a pretty popular running back this week in James Cook, right? It's, it's a guy that people can get to quite easily. They love that matchup. You can really flip this build where a lot of people will have Cousins Bowers and James Cook and maybe Trey Tucker, but let's just eliminate him for a second. Let's see it, actually. By the way, do you think DJ Moore will play?

He still hasn't practiced, but I guess if he does, I would have interest just because he'd be fine, but I don't think he's going to. I don't know. It's crazy. He hasn't played yet. I thought he was fine last week, and then he hasn't practiced really all week, I don't think. Yeah, I would guess that he doesn't. Um, in which case I think Keon Coleman an interesting one. It's like the single stack.

Uh, he's been, he's been better this year and I think this is a pretty decent spot for him. So you go like Alan Coleman, Tucker and Bowers. And now it's like you, you've Josh Allen and Brock Bowers in your stack. And you still didn't spend a ton of money on the stack. Cause you really saved in the two wide receiver spots. Like Keon Coleman is an Odunze money and he goes with this stack and everything.

But what I was going to show, I want to see this. I would, I would mention this and I, one of these guys, I got two running backs that are both like leverage lane candidates, but Genti is one of them. So I'll just say it now. Cause in case you take my other one and that's fine, but I I'll note it.

Like I think Genti opposite side of James Cook, the matchup is actually just as strong on the ground, by the way, I believe it was just, um, Corum and Williams, both, um, that we're doing fine against them just here. And he practices in full all week. I know people have been worried about this guy and whatever, but at $6,500 for the amount of workload he's got when he has been healthy. It's a short season. Sample size sucks. You guys know I love a good Sample.

It's not one. But I'm just saying if you were to flip this, this is $24,000. Including a tight end, right? What we talked about a little bit earlier. It's twenty five. I believe it's twenty five. Just one second. So I think any build could get you another thousand dollars. Let's go. Alan Coleman, Kincaid, Gentee. And let's flip it and go to where I think a lot more people will be at in this stack and go to James Cook.

And down to $4,700 trade Tucker. And then Bowers. Yeah. To Bowers. It is a thousand dollars more. And you're playing Kirk Cousins trade. Like, I love Bowers. You even hear me harp it every single week. You heard Alex talk about it every single week. Almost. It's like this is. This is interesting to me because Josh Allen, right? And then you've got Gentee versus Cook. Could be closer than you think. Josh Allen could smash Cousins.

Gentee and Cook could equal, just saying it from that perspective, but Josh Allen could smash Cousins. Bowers and Kincaid, Bowers could smash him, but then it really comes down to the wide receiver. So it kind of becomes pretty equal, but one gets you a thousand bucks extra and should be way lower owned in a spot that not many people are seemingly going to get to, even though they know it's a good spot.

Yeah, I mean, I think I probably prefer the first one, the more contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian one, but I'd also say I'd really like to find a third option, which gets me Allen and Bowers, even if that obviously costs more. Yeah, I think if you do that, it's probably what you said, though. Um, it's probably still, I think there's still something to be said for like the Coleman in the zone of the Tate's the Odun's days, the Tucker all of that, but Tucker and Coleman together.

And then you still get Bowers and you run out something like that. And you still have $5,000 eighty left, by the way, $25,000, twenty four six. So here's this is a prime example. You can get them both.

And all you did is swap, um, Josh Allen and Keon Coleman for James Cook and Kirk Cousins well if Josh Allen eats James Cook's lunch and then you've got um or he's well he can crush Cousins but it would also hurt he could crush Cousins and he also could crush James Cook yeah and Coleman could just be the guy to slide in there where yeah you don't have it you know the same conversion because you're not using a running back in this one but this is definitely an example I think you could get to here Or in this lineup, I guess, going back to a different way, what's the difference in just deciding that it's Kincaid instead of Isaiah Likely?

And by the way, now you can easily afford who's popular. I get it. But it's just like, all right, I just don't think it's Likely. I think it's all going to be Nabers in this spot. And so I'm just going to hope that he gets his thirty point game and it doesn't need James Winston because a lot of it's just catches. Right. I think he had twenty targets, by the way, last week to the all the talk about the twenty four Puka targets.

I think Malik had twenty himself. So I think there's interesting ways to go about this is twenty four eight to go this way. And it's a double tight end build that a lot of people you saw Bowers and Likely the conditional ownership on Bowers and Likely was eleven point one percent when you had it up earlier. Yep. I don't think the Kincaid number was anywhere near that. You know, Goedert was like next closest at four percent or something, I think. So this would be an example as well.

Um, the one thing the chat did talk about, we talked about Winston stacks. We've just, we again talked about a cousin, but we did mention the Arizona stuff earlier. So we'll play, we'll finish with that one. And I think, and then we can talk about, um, you know, pick a lane. I want to just have some quick fun going back and forth on that. And it brings more game theory and that into it as well.

And then we'll get to our lanes at the end. But what was the thought on the Brissett sag? I like tell you word. It's not saying you love it or you're thinking everybody should go with it, but it is interesting still from the perspective of last week versus this week. So go ahead. Yeah. I mean, just like very similar team totalsTeam TotalIn NFL DFS, a team total estimates one team's points, usually from the game total and point spread. It includes scoring by the whole team, not just offensive touchdowns or fantasy production.Recheck team totals after major news, then ask which players actually benefit. If your projections already reflect the change, avoid adding another automatic boost.Read the full definition of Team Total here, very similar game total at the very least.

And, uh, and we know that like so much of, uh, you know, the, the percent production over the last few years has come in garbage time. Obviously, you know, a larger spread suggests that there could be some real garbage time. I think the key for me is like, what, what's the status of Trent McDuffie for the Rams? If, if there's no McDuffie.

Again, I don't know that I'd end up using Arizona, but I could very confidently say that Brissett, Michael Wilson, that combination is going to be vastly under-owned as a result. And so whether you want to turn it into an expensive stack by also using McBride or just going Brissett, Wilson, and Bourne or Brooks, I think is up in the air.

But the other thought I had about this game that I do want to touch on because it's not my leverage lane is I think that Kyron – as much as I loved him two weeks ago, I think this week he's probably like the most over-owned play on the slate and, and, uh, was really surprised to see how popular he is this week, but like all indications are, he's going to be really, really popular.

And it just seems really clear that they want him on the field in tense, tight situations in the game. And I, That's not what this game environment is suggesting. That's not what we are expecting to see based on the Vegas lines. It's not what we should be expecting just based on who these two teams are. Like, if anything, this seems like a really, really big quorum game.

And so I'm, I'm very interested in using quorum to leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage all of these chalk Rams and hope that it's, it's a lot of him in the second half of a blowout. And you know, the, the Kyrens, the Pukas, the Adams, like they're not even on the field for a lot of the fourth quarter. I think that's a really intriguing way to kind of hope that this game as a whole fails, just like we used Gibbs to try and slow down last week's game.

I think this one is like, it's the opposite. It's that they do so much scoring, but They can't all get there, and maybe none of them get there except for Corum if he steals some early and then also gets the mop-up duty late. So now I'm confused. Is that going to be your lane or not? It's not my lane, no, but it's... Oh, sweet. Okay. So spoiler alert what's coming, but I love Corum this week, and I'll get to that.

It actually stems a lot of my questions today that we talked about, and I'll tie it all together at the end. But I think Corum is a phenomenal setup here. Again, just to show it again, no one's really going to this, by the way, but people are playing Kuka. How can you play it around it? Like everyone wanted Brissett born and Wilson last week. It's sixty five instead of sixty seven.

So instead of sixty five, it's $4,000 instead of $3,400. But he proved with no Marv that he ended up getting, I think, eight targets like he was in the mix. Didn't fully work out. Brissette went up like five, six hundred dollars. But you love Puka on this slate. So whatever you think, everyone that loves Puka. And by the way, it's a lot of people. They're telling me he should be $9,000.

And if he's going to get like he did last week or even half that, probably he might as well be. Well, guess where that eight hundred dollars does makes all those guys the exact same price they were last week. And you loved it. Oh, but it's not the Detroit D. That's not all everybody was saying. Most people were just looking at it from the game total and the perspective of we can get a back and forth and reset can do this and all this other stuff.

But nobody wants it this week. So it's just a prime example. You still have a ton of money to spend, but look at this. I know it's different positions again, but right at that $25,000 range, almost any stack this week is working out to around that range, which means we kind of know what the tight end and running backs and situational stuff is going to be. That information you can use to your advantage.

Yeah, and the last thing here is like, obviously, the Rams defense is not the Detroit defense. Obviously, this is not as good of a spot for Arizona. But we're talking about a quarterback who was like almost thirty percent last week, who's projecting it like one and a half percent this week. So, yeah, it's obviously not the same defense, but is it thirty percent versus one and a half percent worse? And there I think that the answers were pretty clearly no.

Also, I think now this is just from a perspective of just looking at it quickly. I'm pretty sure if we load that up, maybe it was the forty four forty four. Yeah, let's use links. Got taken away at the end to Uticao, who then went on to say, oh, you know, it's not enough to win one Milly Maker. Let me win the showdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Read the full definition of Showdown Milly Maker on Monday as well.

But the lineup that he had that ended up getting clipped by Uticao was a Jacobs and everyone told me he had a bad game, twenty six point three DraftKings points. You know what I mean? Michael Wilson did have a bad game, so that hurt him. But it's like a Jacobs lineup still found a way to get its way to the top with a pretty bad outcome from him for the most part of that game until it worked out in the end.

But the point being, what if they actually have a good game this time? And then that does lead to how good Puka does stay even more involved in full four quarters and all that. That's where I would be looking to get after this game in a different way if you want to do it that way. So I think there's at least something To be said, and I'm going to have a double leverage lane today because I see it from this game that I want to talk about.

But if you weren't on it in this game, I think there's the other one that I like I said earlier already is gentee. I'm going to talk about both of them in more detail in a second. For pick a lane, I just want to get your opinion on some of these spots. So like, we'll start with an easy one because...

I said earlier, like Worthy at wide receiver at $4,600 and massive ownership or Kelley at tight end for a little bit more money, but also like no ownership at all. Kind of the way the position shakes out. People are going high or low. He sits right in the middle. What would be your side?

If you had to pick one again, it doesn't mean you're actually playing is just, it's more like, I think this sparks a lot of thought process and conversation of like the, why the onesie position, if you're not on this guy, then go this guy. What's your thoughts on that one? Kelsey, you know, Worthy or Kelley.

I think that I like the way I kind of talked through the Worthy stuff earlier, which is like, I don't think people are playing Worthy because they think that he's a great play at $4,600. I think they're playing Worthy because he's the best option that they have in order to fit some other guys. And so I want to fadeFadeTo fade a player is to leave him out of your lineups on purpose, usually because you expect him to be popular or you think he is a poor play.Fade with a reason, not a feeling. If you can't say why a popular player will disappoint, you're probably just giving away points.Read the full definition of Fade him. So I'm going to say Kelley, because I just think that one of the paths to success on this slate is.

You don't use Worthy Worthy fails in a big way, which I think is very much within the range of outcomes. And as a result, like you can get, you know, you can get away with not having some of the stud combinations, even if those stud combinations go off because those stud combinations are being brought down by Worthy. So it just gives you more paths to success on this slate. I think if you fade Worthy and he fails. Also, I'm going to add one more option.

You can pick a lane or you could say roadster. And it just means we fly over top of it like flying cars now that we've seen. You can just fly over the question completely and say, I don't want any of those no matter what. And I think that's kind of the feeling because in that one for me, Um, you know, were these a tough one offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off it?

It's not just because the Harris situation is just, that's another one to use to show how it could happen of like what can happen when sometimes these guys are elevated where they could have a huge game. But if he was, I'd like to be thinking about what the rest of my lineup looks like and building around it.

But I, it's not that I love Kelley because we already like Bowers and McBride and then all the other guys that we talked about and some that fit our stacks and all this stuff. We're probably not going, you know, I'm not going to my home. So that tells you everything you need to know there. Let's do another one. You're the Eagles guy. Let's do Chubb Hubbard or Damian Pierce. Now, no Shipley went to the IR, I believe, and now no Barkley, right?

So it looks like Damian Pierce has an opportunity. There's been some coach speak around him that people like, but Damian Pierce and Price Matters and everything or Chubb Hubbard. Yeah, this one's so easy for me. It's Chubb. I... I think Damien Pierce stinks. I think the Eagles offense is going to stink. And Chubb has the highest GPPGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Read the full definition of GPP score of anybody on this slate for me. So Chubb, easy. What about how do you feel?

This is not part of pick a lane now, but I'm curious. How do you feel about the very popular Carolina defense then? That's a tougher one. I think that one depends a lot on, on what you do with the rest of the game, because what we've seen from Philly and I, what we're going to see is like, if this game is tight, it's going to be a hyper conservative offense.

And so while I don't expect a whole lot of production from the Eagles offense, I also don't expect a ton of defensive production from the Panthers. So I think the, the way to use the Panthers defense is to use one or multiple Panthers, whether it's true, but Tet Coker, whomever, and you say, Hey, The Panthers score early and force the Eagles to play more aggressively than they want. And that's when you get the sacks and the mistakes from McKee.

That's why I like, you know, me and my male got into a little bit a couple of weeks ago, but the running back DSTDefense/Special Teams (DST)Defense/Special Teams (DST) is a roster selection representing one NFL team's combined defense and special teams, rather than an individual player. It earns fantasy points through sacks, takeaways, defensive and return touchdowns, and other plays, with adjustments for points allowed.Compare what a DST upgrade costs elsewhere in your lineup. If paying more forces you off an important offensive role, check whether a cheaper defense offers a credible path through sacks and turnovers.Read the full definition of Defense/Special Teams thing, I was like, it's situational, but I'm saying the reason like it's been proven a myth for years now. I think the data you've got it. Tons of people have it. Like you don't need to do that at all. You need the best. You need the people that are going to score the most points.

And funny enough, it's oftentimes a cheap deal. Like it is this week that pairs with the running back, but it's, if you are telling that story in that build and Chubb already pops off the page, it is a way to make it all make sense and make it work. And you're hoping it's that, but to your point, it could be Tet. It could be Coker. What you're saying is it could be Bryce Young and the D that you need.

And the point is, is like Bryce Young scores, the touchdowns takes from Chubb, but then puts the D in a position where you do get the back and forth. And McKee has been chucking it in any games that he's played. It's a small Sample though. So it's like, I think they said there are forty attempts or something like that. Um, I won't give it here. I guess the other one I was going to give you was from before, but I'm already on that one.

I'll talk about Gentee more in a second. There was one more. Do you have any others that you'd have for comparison? I'm just trying to find my other one. Oh, this was it. Do you want Cam, Skattebo, or Isaiah Likely? Man, this is a really tough one. I was actually looking earlier. There's some Skattebo stuff that I like. Okay.

So that's interesting because again, like just from my perspective on this, the game theory idea of it is, is like if a lot of people are going Likely, sometimes it's a good idea. Maybe you want a defense against that team, not because it has anything to do with Likely, but those landings would Likely aren't Likely to have that other defense. Maybe that slows them down. They don't make it happen. But having a guy like scat in, Thousand bucks more.

We showed you earlier how you can find a thousand bucks in some of these stacks and popular ones and combos. That could be a guy that makes sense to fit in there. So scat and Likely. We've only got about five minutes. Probably try and keep it to that. Do you have any others that you wanted to compare? I can't think of any, but what I wanted to do with this segment was not just... It's not picks and plays.

It's game theory and perspective and roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Read the full definition of Roster Construction and all of that. But hopefully in the future, and if we get to it sooner, if you guys like it, let us know in the comments, if you think it sucks, tell us that too. We don't care, but we'll fix it.

We want it to be the best for you guys, but we're hoping to get, you know, chat interaction and you guys could bring your comparisons to say like, I'm very curious what you're, game theory would be on this guy versus this guy, or what does the data say on this guy versus this guy? And then you'll have conversation on how you can use it around that.

Was there any others that you could think of, you know, from stack perspective, running backs, anything else you wanted to compare? Not really. I think, uh, some of the running back chalk is interesting to kind of just think through. Um, so like, or, or second anyway. Yeah. Or even some of like, Oh, which is the better pivot between, you know, Derek Henry or Jonathan Taylor, Jonathan Taylor and Kenneth Walker. Uh, you know, James Cook is also in that, in that group.

I think all four of those guys are pretty similar plays where like, if you use them, you're hoping for the big play, you're hoping for touchdowns, obviously a big performance on the ground. They're all capable. Are you basing that decision on the matchup? Is it about the overall lineup as a whole? So lots of different kind of thoughts there, but I think my preference is probably Jonathan Taylor, and the reason is related to my leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage length. Yeah.

I'll let you go first thing, because now that you don't have mine and you already know what my two are, I'm going to talk about both of them and why in a second, but let's hear yours first. Go ahead.

So my leverage lane is stemming from the thought of, you know, that I brought up earlier, which is, I kind of want to build my stack this week through alpha wide receivers where like, I, I'm not really super impressed by any game environments that I can go to outside of the Chicago Atlanta game, which I don't really want to play at this point because of how, how popular it is, or maybe I will, but it's, you know, trying to find a really contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian way.

With that said, like, okay, if, if I'm not elevating the stack through a game environment, how can I find the stack that really elevates itself? Well, the biggest answer I think is the alpha wide receivers get it done with big plays. And so, you know, last week, the, the two alpha wide receivers that I went through were Denzel Boston and Gary Wilson, not exactly the two that you really think about, but. When we're talking alpha wide receivers, we're saying, what is their role?

How much of the offense's production comes through that player? And do they have big playability? And, and those guys both check that box this week. One of the most intriguing ones I think is a Cam Ward stack as crazy as that sounds, but Carnell Tate very much fits the mold. He has like a, I think a point six, three weighted opportunity rating this year. Maybe it might even be actually, I think it's point seven, three.

So one of the really, really strong roles is, We've only seen Ward and Tate connect throughout the game once this year, but even last week where it was a bad, bad week for Tate, the role was spectacular. A lot of downfield targets. He himself is doing a really good job of getting open. Cam Ward just has to do a better job of hitting him. But it seems to me like it's one of those cases where the matchup is great this week.

It's a, it's absolutely a defense where he can get that done. And the second thing is, I think a lot of this with Ken Ward is like just confidence, right? And so once he hits a couple of times, it becomes infinitely easier to hit a third time and a fourth time and a fifth time, rather than trying to get those first connections when they're just struggling throughout the game. And so if Carnell Tate hits like this to me is the big point.

Carnell Tate is getting some ownership. If he hits in a big way, it's really, really hard for Cam Ward to not also hit at $4,800. And if you get that combination, now you can spend so much money elsewhere. And so I think one of the more intriguing contrarian spend upsSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up of the week is Jonathan Taylor. Oh, guess what?

They fit in the same game and they correlateCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation really well because when Taylor has those ceilingCeilingCeiling is the high end of a player's or lineup's realistic range of fantasy scores. It describes a big performance that could happen when things go well, not the expected score or an absolute maximum.Describe what must happen for each player to have a huge game. Then check whether those conditions help or hurt the other players in your lineup.Read the full definition of Ceiling performances, he's taking it to the house from sixty yards out and now he's putting the ball right back in Cam Ward's hands.

And so I think this just sets up really well in the sense that like I don't think the median outcome for this game is good by any means, but when two specific things happen, when Jonathan Taylor has explosive plays and when Cardinals Tate actually catches, or I should say when Ken Ward actually puts the ball on tape, when he gets open down the field, it's like, it's two things. And when those two things happen, this game environment becomes infinitely better than what the median outcome is.

And so I really liked this path to saving money and getting a lot of upside and contrarian upside at that. Yeah, and you get so much money left over, right? If you, I'll throw it up on the screen for a second, but if you pop like even those three together, you still have almost $5,400. We haven't put a D or a tight end or anything in there. So you can you can do a lot of different angles with that approach.

Perfect. So you've got yours. I'll hit both mine quick. I will say, you know, the big one is Quorum, which I'll get to in a second. But Gentee, I'll start with quickly. The reason I mentioned Gentee is just like I said, I do see James Cook, a lot of conversation around him when people can't get to Josh Allen. I know there's Tucker. Steam a little bit and people want to play the Kirk cousin stack and they're putting cook into that.

So to me, it's just flipping that in multiple ways, right? Even if you didn't fully get to the Josh Allen, I think there's an option to go with gentee. If he was $6,500 here and it was any other situation besides coming off that ankle and all that, I think people would have a lot more interest.

This one would remind me more of Um, Blickle's, uh, Williams call a couple of weeks ago where it's like, yeah, you are just taking a shot a little bit. It's not as aggressive as the quorum one in a minute, but he still has a good projectionProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections. He still shows up a lot at $6,500. He's right there with Williams, who we know is picking up steam. Swift, who still has no manung guy.

If Stevenson picks up any steam, you know, and Braylon Allen is right below him. So he squeezed there. Opposite a guy that's up top. And in lineups that I can't get to my boy, Brock Bowers, it makes perfect sense for that as well. So there's a lot of different angles of attack with Gentee on this slate. And I don't necessarily recommend playing both these guys together, but I'll give my second one.

For example, if it's a, you know, let's say it's a Stafford stack with Higbee and you're staying with one tight end and you're not going to get to Williams, but you also don't have Brock Bowers, maybe that's a good spot to throw Gentee in as a full example. But... The quorum one. And I told you before, I never really do much sports betting, but I laddered this guy up. I got any time touchdown. I got two touchdowns.

Like I just, I really think the quorum spot is so good and even got better yesterday. And the reason I say that is because I don't have high faith in Tyler Algier. Being a starting guy at $4,800 in a twelve and a half point spread and all this other factors to go with it. I think if the game stays close, we still seen Corum be in the mix. Look at the game that we just had. He was in there a ton.

Could have broke off that one last one, man. He's so shifty with the ball in hand, you know, in stride. And he almost got loose on that one for the full way. Could have been an even bigger day. Still had a ton of success. Well, I think that he gets involved either way, but if it is a blowout, we could see him be involved even more. And at $4,800, he's there's nobody else anyone is really going to down there except maybe Algier.

These are initial projections, et cetera, et cetera. But my point being, he's not even going to be that far off. And when you talk and Alex got me excited about this one, that sounds like, oh, wait, I'm confused. But when he said the Karen Williams thing of being potentially involved, over-owned in his outlook, that's even more intriguing because it's like, okay, if you can't, first of all, if you can't get to Kyron Williams or don't want to, then I think Corum makes sense.

But if a lot of people are going to be on Algier too, you're getting like a double whammy in the same game. But then second of all is I actually think you could still play Corum and Puka.

Together more than needing a stack or needing anything like it could just be puka is the guy you need and then quorum is the follow-up that you've gotten it would be similar I'll say what was the game um the Detroit game was it like LaPorta still did pretty good and obviously it was gibbs is all you needed it's again not quite the same and different price points and positions but the idea of quorum can still be enough and make the rest of your lineup work And you've got Puka and Corum and not necessarily anything else.

It's just playing it that way. You could play Puka and Corum and the Rams D. You could play Corum and the Rams D and pay upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up at D. So Corum is the key standing point to all of that. I think he's pretty interesting. It goes totally, Alex, I'll let you rebuttal this, but totally with what we talked about off the top. When I said, what if you've got something where you kind of really like it?

The projections aren't going to be all the way there. But I can make a lot of sense with it and have conviction behind it. Well, I can kind of do whatever I want with the rest of my lineup, right? Is my thinking with this one. Any thoughts on those leverage lane pieces there? I love the quorum call, as I said earlier.

The other thing, if he qualifies in that regard of someone who doesn't project it well, in that case, it doesn't matter at all that he doesn't project well because the reason we love him isn't just that we think he's going to do well. The reason we love him is because when he does well, he does so much for our lineups, both in terms of helping fit other guys, but also like taking down the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk that we're not playing. And so I really like that.

And then, um, I wanted to mention like, uh, there's a, there's a comment in the chat that says the, the Titans offense isn't concentrated. It hasn't been concentrated from a production standpoint, but from an opportunity standpoint, um, Carnell Tate is fifth in the entire NFL in weighted opportunity rating. The guys ahead of him are JSN, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Chris Olave. That's it. In terms of percent of a team's air yards, Carnell Tate leads.

He is number one in the percentage of his own team's air yards. When they have success, it is going to be Carnell Tate. So the reason the production hasn't been super concentrated is because these two just haven't hit. Of those guys, he's...

Turning air yards and opportunity into actual production at a much lower rate but I don't think that's tate's fault I think tate is doing a really good job of getting open it's just about Cam Ward hitting him and certainly part of that is just getting into an easier matchup and so uh again like that I'm not saying that the median outcome for this game is really good for tater for the Cam Ward stack but I really like the fact that when this hits it's hitting in a really predictable way and it's hitting in a way that is elevating the entire game environment and a really really cheap contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian quarterback And elevating the rest of your roster.

Again, this always goes back. It's in the reverse. And I love the first profit. Always here supporting. We appreciate you, man. But just saying like, when you look at it that way, it's not just what that does. It's what else does it do for the rest of your lineup? You can pretty much go anywhere you want. You can get all the pieces that you want in and still like think about it and be thoughtful of your roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Read the full definition of Roster Construction.

But it's pretty much comes down to like if that part hits and it's one that you were very confident enough to put conviction behind and make it your leverage lane that if it hits, hopefully you get the rest of the stuff right. But the rest of the stuff is going to be pretty damn good. It's like you're going to have a lot of good options in there if you've got that stack to start with, even with an $8,000 Jonathan Taylor.

So I think it's a really good spot for this week. Anything else? Um, you know, let the people know where they can find you. Anything else you want to go with final thoughts, then we'll get out of here. Oh, all good. Uh, blick analytics.com. That's where, where it's all at. You can use promo code Tamu. You can use promo code leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage, whatever you want. And, uh, and yeah, just get in there. Cause it's, we're having a lot of fun this year.

Yeah, check it out, guys. Make sure to support Alex. Support us over at ShipItNation.com. If you want to find out more, support yourself, really, because if you want to get in, any All Access member or NFL-only member at Ship It Nation has a chance to play for the $50,000 cash and prizes. It is a community-only contest. You can check it all out at ShipItGames.com and then join the games. But it's basically if you just have a membership. All access are NFL only.

You'll be in the Discord. You'll have all of the content, projectionsProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections, ownership, showdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Read the full definition of Showdown, the stones, the Stone 2.0 point oh, Slate Station, value report, all that and more. You guys can check it out at ShipItNation.com. If you have any other questions, hit me up on X at ToeTagginTambo. That's going to do it for this week, guys. For Blickle, for myself, ToeTagginTambo, good luck in your contests. Let's ship it!