NFL DFS Week 10 Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel Strategy

I had an interesting Sunday where I had the mega ticket on the main slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate, and then I had a $5,000 plus dollar ticket for showdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Read the full definition of Showdown where it was a sixteen man qualifier to get a seat at the world championship. Got a third out of sixteen. So it was like both slates. I feel like I played well and just didn't get anything out of it.

And, you know, if you flip it, you know, because that that third out of sixteen, like that did really well in all my other contests. It just so happened that I ran into two buzz saws of lineups. And so if we had just flipped that, then I would have had a much, much better day, but is what it is. Uh, I felt like I played pretty well.

I did feel like it was kind of unlucky that that was the week that I had the ticket, because if that was just one of my regular, like single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry weeks, one bullet into all the different contests, I feel very strongly that I would have been on a Cleveland double or a Cleveland triple.

And, uh, that that lineup would have done really well so uh it was it's just one of those things where like you know I talked through uh my leverage lane of how I wanted to be on something unique where I wasn't going up against multiple iterations of like my own lineup and that's what brought me off of Cleveland and uh and I think that that was right because when you look at like uh how many kind of Cleveland lineups were near the top it was basically either like Cleveland or Green Bay near the top and and I don't think that I would have won by any any means because I think

I still would have been passed by Green Bay lineups but like one of the uh one of the Cleveland kind of shells that I built and simmedSimulationsSimulations play out a slate thousands of times using each player's range of outcomes, then record what happened. Contest sims go further and score your lineups against a simulated field to estimate how often they cash or win.Use sims to compare close decisions, not to replace your read. If a sim result surprises you, check the input that caused it before trusting it.Read the full definition of Simulations was a triple that also had puka and lamb and so You know what? That lineup probably would have done pretty damn well. It's unfortunate in that regard, but at the same time, I still stand by what I felt.

My sim showed the same thing where that lineup was simming really, really well in single entries and not that well in the mega because it was just going up against so many different iterations of itself. Which is the key, and you talked about that on the last one. For those who don't know, didn't you only play one lineup? There's a difference between single entry and one lineup. That's what we always try and explain. You can play the same lineup in both.

Maybe it lines up and it works for both, but in a tournament like the Mega where there's enough people that have five to nineteen, that it's like you're not going to end up with a very good version that's unique enough, right? And you don't want to go too outside the lines. One of the most interesting things for me last week was that Um, you know, I didn't really pick up on it till after the slate ended and I like to be prepared.

So I sort of take pride in that and seeing it, but the Drew Lock to JSN was an exact two V two to love and Golden, which I don't think is that crazy. Even if you were scared of Gonzalez and thinking he was going to be on Watson or whatever, like anything could have got you there. But if you were down, it made sense to swap. And I had a late swapLate SwapIn NFL contests with late swap, you can change unlocked afternoon or evening players after earlier games begin. Only games included in that contest's player pool are available.Before the first games lock, identify affordable backup combinations for your later players. Check that each combination fits the open positions, then confirm your saved changes in every affected entry.Read the full definition of Late Swap that I could have done much more with.

And I ended up going to, I had like lock JSN. I think it was Kittle and somebody else, or no, Schultz and CMC. And the late swap would have been to go to Love, Watson, Golden, Barner. And the reason that is, obviously it's very results oriented, but to note it, it fit perfectly, is like you get a stack that nobody's really on that has big upside. It's very condensed. It makes sense. It's a way to get different. Nobody's really on Green Bay.

You can't fit a New England guy in. If you wanted, you have to use a tight end. I could have put Raridon in. I was going to say, yeah, he could have been Raridon. That's what I would have won, but Henry played. But the other thing is when you're making a late swap, this was going to be my evergreen topic for today.

I'm making fun of myself, but when you're making a late swap and I'll tell you the one I miss the mistake I made in a second, but you're also trying to see like, how can you live? It's not going to be lock and JSN. Why wouldn't you try and get a guy like who could eat his lunch? For even a touchdown or anything. I'm not expecting two for Barner, but Barner would have made sense for that as well.

Obviously, any combination of that, you win everything. It was such a low-scoring week, especially what I was in was for a satellite to the FFWC. But what I switched to, I did late swap. I was dead. So I was like, I have to late swap anyway. So I late swapped to Cousins, Tucker, Bowers, and it landed me on Kittle off of CMC. I knew there was a CMC in front of me, by the way, that was important to note as well.

So it was like, I can't be on CMC. I don't know if Kittle is going to be that great because so many people still have them, but I know people don't really have Bowers, Cousins, Tucker. The problem is they're just not really that good. I love Bowers. He's going to have a big day and like Tucker just there. But if you look in hindsight of what would have been more upside, tighter target treeTarget ShareTarget share is the percentage of a team's targets (passes thrown toward an intended receiver) that go to one player. A receiver who sees 8 of his team's 32 targets has a 25 percent target share.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Read the full definition of Target Share, actual firepower, it's love Golden Watson.

And what would actually leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage something like people still had Kittle. So why would like, it wasn't like he was going to give me that much breakaway there. So in front of me ended up having Bowers as well. So seeing that in hindsight, it's just, you know, you got to think through those late swaps even further. It's not easy to, But when you go back, it is something to learn from.

And just remember again for next time, I could have started on Barner as the automatic way to leverage my big wide receiver with his cheap quarterback and then would have almost naturally just landed on that. But it's like one of those things, get away from the popular game, get the stack that's targeted, That's a tighter target tree and big, big upside.

We didn't expect that by the way, a hundred plus points or whatever, but get anything from that and then use somebody that can actually leverage what you're moving off of. So you can double leverage and push yourself into that position where you don't have to worry and you're fully separated. So hopefully it helps somebody out there, but always something to be thinking about any takeaways from you. For last week, I know my lane too, the game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack just continue to print.

Like people are just still trying to single stack and avoid it. You've done the data and the roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Read the full definition of Roster Construction. Anybody at the top has a double stack with a run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back, a triple back, a triple stack, a game stack. It's yeah. Even on these ten, twelve, fifteen, you know, ten, twelve, thirteen game slatesSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. It's still happening.

Yeah, I was a little bit bummed too because the two stacks I ended up choosing between were Milton Lemon with the Singletarian Nabers double bring back, which is what I played, and the really contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian San Francisco stack, which would have been Purdy, Robinson, Watkins, and Bowers coming back, fading both Kittle and McCaffrey. And obviously McCaffrey scored two touchdowns, but he wasn't necessary by any means. And Watkins had a big game. Robinson would have been a bad one, but Bowers was awesome.

So that one would have been really, really good. And I had a lineup that I was trying to get to that did all three of using or did both of, you know, using Bowers as the pay upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up with the San Francisco stack. And then also getting the really contrarian pairing of the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk wide receivers, Puka and Lamb, because both of those guys ended up like thirty percent, but they were very unique together.

And I kept just being like two or three hundred dollars short of what I wanted for that lineup. So didn't play it. And part of that, too, was like I actually felt like C.D. Lamb was going to be overowned. I was projecting him between thirty and thirty five percent. The rest of the industry was projecting around twenty.

So I felt like, hey, I don't want to play into that when I know that he's actually going to be a lot more owned than what the field expects, even though that combination is going to be lower than what the field expects, given their ownerships. And so it was close to being something great. And, you know, it would have been a really fun lineup to have, but still, it wouldn't have won because it wasn't going to beat the love stack.

So, you know, it would have been a nice cash, but that's not ultimately what we're playing these tickets for. We're playing to go win the million dollars. Yeah, another thing I wanted to add to that, because I thought you brought up something good there, and I'll just go to it over on DFSOS. This was the mega last week. The top three lineups did not have Lamb...

Puka or kenneth walker the third and I know like everyone's gonna say or walk in the third anywhere but I know everyone's gonna say oh yeah of course because when love Watson Golden go off that's what you need but when there's people that are so afraid on any given slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate to fade like a Antonio Williams chalk at you know whatever price or uh Drake London you know he's six six hundred we got to play him or what like people get so worried about all these plays and have high FOMO of like, if I don't go there, that's going to burn me.

But like, you can have a slate where lamb crushes, Nacua crushes, Kenneth Walker, the third crushes, and none of those three end up on any of the three winning lineups in the mega. Obviously they were awesome and they crushed it and all depends on different things and slate dynamics. Like Kenneth Walker was in the, um, with Puka and et cetera, in the twenty dollar lineup.

Milly makers, you know, of course you got to get a little bit more perfect, but just going back to the mega and more so focusing on it from the perspective that you and I talk about for, if you have one $555 ticket, one three thirty three ticket, one mega ticket, whatever. Don't be as afraid to like move off of certain things.

If you've got a different plan, as long as you're playing something else accordingly and you know, you're feeling like it can still get you to the top. Then don't be as afraid about all that stuff because in the end, even in that big boy tournament, none of those plays ended up at the top required. Other lineups did. Anything to add on that just for you?

Yeah, we're not going to get an answer to this, at least not here on the show, but I wonder how many of those lineups that were at the top pivoted away from what they initially were going to build because they realized, Oh, I don't have Walker Puka or lamb. Like I need, I need some other way to get there because I'm not going to get there with the guys that I have.

And so I need to make it one big bet that, uh, you know, something a little bit cheaper than those guys can match their score and therefore bring the lineup up, up above them. And so maybe they went to Green Bay for that reason.

I don't know, but, uh, certainly an interesting thing to, to wonder because, uh, it was definitely hard to get to that stack otherwise, and it's going to be a stack that I think we talk about a lot on this show today. Yeah, what's interesting is the top one did have Greg Dulcich from the morning, and he busted, so it's possible, but most of it was from the afternoon. They did have Jonah Coleman, but most of the rest was from the afternoon.

Need Lynch Mooney, obviously one of the best to do it out there, so who knows what he had. It was a And I think the Eagles D from the morning. So a lot of it was resting on the avenue. Even Schultz was the early afternoon game. So he had Schultz in there, but it was Watson, Golden, McCaffrey, Love, Hollins, Ramondre. It looks like he was overstacking that game. It's tough to say though, but I don't think you would move off with just Coleman and Eagles probably.

And then Schultz. He's the one who won the... Seat to the world championship over me too. He got first where I got third. So yeah, he hit himself quite a nice day. Yeah, Eric is a really nice dude, awesome DFS player, but the first time I ever met him was cool. It was at the New Orleans live final, not the most recent one, the one before that, and he had max seats, and he brought his entire family. It was awesome.

He had his grandparents, just all his closest family, so it was cool to see. Went out for dinner with him and his brother. His brother had a knee surgery or something recently, so they were just hanging out. But yeah, he's an awesome player. It looks like that lineup was just an over stack, and then the other one was... Jonah Coleman, Singletary. And did the Rams play in the morning last week or afternoon? Oh, I can't remember. Hookah was in the morning.

They were in the morning. Yeah. Yeah. Parkinson's. It's possible as well. But yeah, good call out on that, too. You never know how people are going to get there. We'll get to this, too. Berger says hashtag maybe my home's week. It wasn't going to be until we got this news. And we'll get to that in a little. Anything else you want to rehash or any other topics you want to talk about before we get to looking at this week? I don't think so.

I think it's worth jumping into this week now because it's a really interesting slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. I feel like the biggest thing about this slate is we can point to spots where the offense or our backfield is in a clearly good spot, but for most of those plays and offenses, it's like, okay, but now I don't really know which guy I should be picking from this spot.

And then, on the other hand, you have some offenses where we do know, like, okay, if they produce, if they have a really good game, We're pretty confident about who's going to be the one producing, but those spots aren't great. And so I think if we can find something where we're more confident than the field in terms of who amongst a good offense is the guy to play, then we're in a good spot.

And similarly, if we can find the offense where – we're more confident in the field that this offense is going to have success. We can really win it that way and separate. So it's, I think it's a slate where like, there's a lot of edge to be had, but actually finding that edge is pretty difficult at this time. Yeah. I want to talk, there is a lot to talk about in this slate. So we're going to get right to it in a second.

I'll bring up the Stone 2.0 point O over on shipitnation.com. But this is from a G Mandrella says Bolte. I forget what the law of this is called. You, you know, a lot of like mind and psychology and stuff like that. But the one where people just assume that, that something's going to happen.

And even if it does, like I always talk about this with five ones on a Sunday night hit and then Monday night football, five ones are a bit more popular, but these are already happening. You actually have the data on how often quarterback plus two with a run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back is hitting and they're winning the tournament still all the time because that's what wins typically. So you'll still see them at the top, but it's like when people are like, oh, it's been red three times in a row.

Now it's going to be black. That's just not how it works, right? Yeah, this...

Sorry g man but this isn't how math works so yeah so it's like you can that's I just don't it's more of like not going towards him as saying it I think it's more of like I don't want people to think like that I want you to know that it's like at the end of the day you just gotta not let that you seep into your brain when you're trying to build your lineups and it's no different than the plays and the picks and the biases and stuff like that and people like oh man I landed on this golfer who I would love to put him at, you know, he fits the lineup perfectly.

He looks good on the projectionProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections, but I know everybody likes him this week. So I'm going to move off him. Everybody likes him this week. There's another one too, Alex, a side note totally, but there was a tweet or a post, I guess the other day on X that was talking about how like, everybody is rooting for you. Everyone always takes it as like the opposite. Like, oh, they must hate me or so-and-so is not cheering for me or whatever.

Like I think literally everybody is rooting for you from, they were talking about like on a first date, they, you know, why would they go on the date? They clearly want it to go well, but people overthink it. And then it's a bad first date or it's like anything that you're doing, people are rooting for you, but people always want to see the bad side for some reason. It's a glass half full, glass half empty thing. It's just like, The glass is even right now.

You just get to decide how you're going to go about it. So it's all in your mind that way. Anything else you want to add on game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack, though, like that data and stuff? I know you've got it over there yourself at BlickAnalytics.com. Not really.

I think it's one of those things where, like, On the one hand, we do want to treat every slate differently, but also there's just an element of if we are trying to outsmart those winning trends and find the rare times where it's better to not do that and to correlateCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation less often than usual, you're just opening yourself up to making mistakes when...

You have a very clear path to being successful long term by just continuing to play the best type of strategy, the best type of strategy over and over again. And I would rather do that. I'd rather not introduce all this extra varianceVarianceIn NFL DFS, touchdowns can create large scoring swings without much change in touches or targets. With each team usually playing once per week, you also get relatively few games to judge a player's results within one season.Track results by contest type and slate, and review opportunity separately from touchdowns or other rare scoring events. Entering the same lineup in ten contests does not give you ten independent performance samples. If you build with an optimizer, its randomness setting nudges projections up or down on each build, so your lineups spread across different players instead of repeating the same top projections.Read the full definition of Variance in the sense that I might be making mistakes that I don't have any reason to make. Yeah, there'll be one that comes up actually too. Somebody just said this as well. Sixberg, love double stack with Watson Golden.

Got people paid a few times this year, but anything I'm hearing, a lot of places are that there's no way they could do it again this week. But what do we always talk about, right? Also because they're going up against Flores and the Blitz and all, like I actually think love is good. Against the blitz typically, but also the end of the day, it's like, he's still going to probably air it out. He's capable of doing it.

Those guys are very capable of catching it except Golden sometimes when he's dropping touchdowns, but he's making up for it with the other ones that he is catching. So just keep that in mind too. But this isn't automatic, right? Where people just say, Oh, you think they're going to put up a hundred again? Well, that was, that was a crazy ceiling spot. Like they could put, you don't know what this slate means.

They could put up It's also the slate dynamics just matter so much. People talk to me today in the Discord about, and we'll get to game stacks later, but like, oh man, that San Francisco-Dallas game looks juicy, but it's really expensive to stack it up with Lamb and with Dak.

And if you want CMC, Kittle, whatever else you want to mix in there, it's like, yeah, but the news of that first game, which we will get, and we're assuming Walker going to be out, that, you know, you would have Emmett Johnson. So that allows to make it a little bit easier. And there's other things on the slate too, that we'll get to Brevin span for, but no Ferguson. Well, he probably goes into those lineups to make them fit too.

So you could be boxing yourself in, but it all it's, it's give and take whatever the slate gives you is what people are taking from it. So I got the Stone 2.0 point Oh, we are going to look at the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build to start. Did some updates to it just for those looking. I know some people asked me today. It's just cleaner. Looks nicer. If you want the heat map on and you prefer that, go ahead.

It's like a light mode, dark mode thing for me. I prefer it like this. I don't need to see all the color coding and this and that. I like that for maybe matchups or something if you want to point it out. But for all the other stuff, it's like I can just... Sort it by whatever I want. If I want to sort it by optimal, it's there. If I want to sort it by FanDuel salary or DraftKings, whatever you want to do, you can do.

But where do you want to start for this? Do you want to have the KW three conversation real quick here? I think both of you and I are aligned on this, but I think a lot of other people are a little shook up about it. So where do you, where do you land on that one so that we don't have to do the, if this, and then I know we kind of do, but it's just, I'd rather just get to the point here.

Yeah, I think Kenneth Walker is going to miss this game. It's very rare for a player to pop up on the injury reportInjury NewsInjury news is information about a player's health that can change whether they compete, how much they play or how effectively they perform. In DFS, it also affects opportunities for teammates and opponents.Before an uncertain player's game locks, identify an alternative you can afford at each affected position. Check whether making that change would require another player whose game starts earlier.Read the full definition of Injury News, not practice at all on a Friday, especially with some kind of soft tissue issue, and then end up playing. And so I think we can pretty confidently project him out at this point in time. I already am. He's already projected out over at Black Analytics.

And Emmett Johnson steps in with sixty two percent MME ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership and seventy six percent single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry and high stakes ownership, something like that. So it Totally changes the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate, and I do think it's worth having a conversation about, okay, well, what if Kenneth Walker does end up playing? How does that change the type of lineups that we're going to see?

But I think that that's a small kind of summary because I think the much more valuable conversation and the more Likely to be relevant conversation is how does Emmitt Johnson being on the slate change everything in the type of lineups that people can get to? Because I think that...

Last week we talked about how there wasn't really a chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build in terms of the construction because so many different types of lineups were going to be able to be built where there were lineups with a really cheap and a really expensive running back and lineups with a really cheap and a really expensive wide receiver. And I think that Emmitt Johnson kind of creates the same thing this week where otherwise we would have seen...

Much more of like a tilt at the running back position towards expensive guys. And then having to make up for that at the wide receiver and tight end position. Now people have access to whatever type of build they want. Yes. And, you know, somebody asked his price, $4,700 on the screen there. You can see it will lock him in just to start it off and roll with that as our starting point here.

Just to again, like I said, we can talk about it and mention it. But the idea of obviously what changes is you lose a, you know, fifty to sixty percent plus owned value running back on the slate that makes a lot of things work. So he's a guy that will be very popular the minute we get the news if Kenneth Walker is out. So. Assumption there, like you said, late in the week, growing all those different factors, not practice at all.

Like all that stuff leads to thinking that where else now you do want to discuss? Because I think the next conversation is probably Carolina, New Orleans. I know there's the San Francisco Dallas game and the ownership and the Kittle stuff. But I also think Warren is popular at tight end, which we'll talk about. But let's go to Carolina, New Orleans first for how we're going to shape this thing out. Yeah, I mean, this is definitely where I think a lot of people's attention is going to first.

I don't know that it's going to be the most stacked game. I kind of think that Trevor Lawrence and the Jags might end up passing it, particularly if they're not projected higher around the industry as we get closer to lock. If people think, oh, I'm going to the semi-contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian Trevor Lawrence stack, then that would really make it steam because it's like if you are picking Shuck, for example, with New Orleans, the bring backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back is obvious because Chubb Hubbard is in a very good spot here.

But how are people going to stack him? Are they going to Tyson? Are they just doing a skinny with Olave? That's a lot harder than if you're going Trevor Lawrence. All right, Parker Washington really easy. Okay, Jacobs Myers at his price tag is really easy. You can even throw him in with Tootin'. Uh, it's a little bit more straightforward and cheaper to go the Jacksonville route. And so I think there's a very good chance that he ends up steaming, but we can absolutely start with new ones.

Cause I think that's where the attention is going first. So if we go shuck Olave and Hubbard, like you did here, like how much, how much does that leave? Is that $5,100 per spot? Yeah, it's a little, I think it's just the screen that we're on, but it's $5,100 per player. Yeah. So, yeah, it's a it's very doable. And I think we are going to see this.

But I also think that, like, if you are going to this game, you have to recognize the fact that there's a lot of attention here. And so this is probably not a good spot at all for a skinny, because if if this goes off, if this game really, really hits.

Chances are somebody else is going to have a better version of it with an extra guy or two where, you know, maybe Tyson also gets there or one of the tight ends gets there, or you also need Tet or Coker as a bring back, or maybe you even need the Bryce Young side instead. And so I think, It's a very bad, bad game to try and skinny just because those are the only guys you like.

If you are going to go this route, I think you want to really make a bet on the entire game going off and it being like a, you know, forty to thirty type game. Obviously, those exact scores don't happen a lot in NFL, but, you know, that many touchdowns, that many possessions creating points back and forth with explosives. That's the type of story you should be telling if you're going this route. It's forty. What do you say? Forty to thirty. Yeah.

We got a score agami or no, probably happened. No, not, not a score agami. It happened in a, it's easy to get to. Forty is not. Yeah. I think it's, it shows twice here. Nineteen eighty-one and $2,000 eighteen. So it's been a while though. I like, uh, yeah, I like Aaron in the chat. He was holding it down earlier with, uh, with the law of large numbers pointing out the, the correct name and a shadow canine as well.

I think, I think canine was right earlier that, uh, G man was trying to invoke Murphy's law, which is like, if anything that can go wrong, we'll go wrong. When he talked about, uh, the, the double with a wide receiver, bring back, not hitting this week, but, but here now bringing up Blickle Blickle's law, only skinnies and non-popular stack games. Yeah. It's, it's a hundred percent true.

I think like it, There's a reason why I built the conditional ownership tool, because conditional ownership is one of the most important things that we need to be thinking about when building lineups, especially in some higher stakes contests where you're going up against the best DFS players in the world. And this is one of those, right? The conditional ownership for these guys is really, really important.

And you need to be thinking about the condition where this game hits and makes my stack do really well is also the condition where if I have it skinnied, I'm going to get passed by a lot of people who have double stacks and triple stacks. And this is a game where people are going to be doing that. So it's one thing if you're on a really...

Contrarian game, and then it goes off and you only have a single stack because now you're probably not competing with a lot of people who have versions of that lineup that added an extra guy from the game or an extra two guys from the game the way people will in this one.

Lawbridge lane today they got all the laws

Out there that are going down murphy's my boy canine got me earlier it's like Murray well this this happened this way so it's gonna happen this way the next or it's not gonna happen at all and then the other one is like a lot of um where's the other one I just saw like you know guys that never get there it's like shocker lord it's like no the good news with shuck if you like them this week a couple things I'll say on it and I'm gonna leave them in this build as we're looking at it but I'll just know one thing People are stopping at Olave for the most part, which is great because I feel just the

Only... I love that they priced Tyson, by the way, at $5,000 flat and even at $4,900 with Vele underneath them. Like you go to him. Same thing. Like those guys are both affordable still. And there's not a lot of value on the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. And I'll talk about it later for sure. But your value into the stacks at wide receiver is more enticing to me than value just to play it and hope that it gets there.

And then the other thing is I also think you said it, and then I thought you were going where I was going to go with it, but then you went to the Trevor Lawrence conversation, which is definitely one today as well. But I actually don't think that we've seen the highest point yet for ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership on the Carolina side of this game, meaning I think you'll see Bryce. It's not like it's going to steam crazy.

I'm just saying a lot of people are just flipping to the other side, and it's because the real one going to last week of Love, Watson, and Golden – And what actually might carry across from that is people saying they, you know, the double stack idea of like Olave and who Olave $5,000 Tyson or Jawan hasn't done anything. And like for a while, like all that, like, where do I go? Oh, you know what I can do?

I can just get a mini version of that on the other side. And I can play with, I can play Bryce Young with Ted and, Coker, that's like Watson and Golden. And then I can still play Olave or I can still play Tyson. Oh man, this works or whatever you want to do with the running backs. I do think that's another quick conversation, but I think Devon's cousin is going to be coming back this week, right?

We know Travis Achane by the new pronunciation we're supposed to go by, but I think he's coming off the IR, right? And he said he practiced all week, feels good. Do you think he'll play?

Because Estime was the thing before Emmett Johnson was a thing before people are still waiting to see if that's the thing so what do you think about that situation yeah I I agree and I also think that like this is one of those spots where um sims might have a huge effect on ownership around the industry we're like I think there's a very good chance that especially if ownership continues to look the way that it does we're going to see that one of the things that sims best like no matter what sim you're using is going to the Carolina side because now Number one, I think both Coker and Tett are in really good spots.

Now you have a very clear double stack, whereas on the New Orleans side, the double isn't quite as clear of like, okay, even if I know that I want to go to it, I don't really know who I want to choose in it, whereas the Carolina side, it's very clear, Tett and Coker. Then you just have to have one bring back, and What most of those lines are going to do is fade Chubb Hubbard, who could be really popular.

So you're also kind of leveraging that chalk while telling the story that the game goes off. And so I think that that's going to seem really well. And consequently, that might move ownership quite a bit. But I still think that that's probably a really smart way to build this. And one of the things that I'll point out about this game It should be pretty good from a pace perspective.

It should also be very good from an explosive pass perspective because Carolina and New Orleans are third and fourth in the league, according to FTN's chart and data in single high usage defensively. And at this time of the season, like it's wonderful to look at, okay, well, what defenses are allowing explosive pass plays.

But at this point in the year, just as predictive of which teams have been producing explosives for who's going to allow explosives in the future is just simply their single high rate. And so both these teams should continue to give up a lot of explosives through the air. Both offenses are capable of producing those explosives and call plays aggressively to create explosives. So this is a really, really good game environment.

And I think that even if it does hold its ownership, it's one that you can play into that ownership and just get different elsewhere in the lineup. But I also think there's a chance that it's not going to hold its ownership because the shuck side is so difficult to figure out exactly how you want to play. And I think people really are set in the idea of like – at least if I go with the Shuck side, the bring back is really clear in Hubbard.

And now that tells the story of why I have the correct quarterback in this game. Whereas if you go to the Bryce Young side, it's like, okay, well now, you know, if, if New Orleans is able to push Carolina while Shuck is probably scoring a lot. And so on the New Orleans side, then you can at least tell the story. If Carolina pushes New Orleans, I'm still very Likely to have the correct quarterback on the correct side.

If I'm also right about Chubb, uh, you know, getting a lot of the touchdowns on a lot, a lot of the production on the other side. So it's, it's just, it's, it's weird that like the Carolina side is the more straightforward build in terms of who you're using within the stack. And then the New Orleans side is the more straightforward build in terms of telling the story of the entire game and who the bring back is.

And so that like just really, Subtle difficulty on either side might push ownership elsewhere to where it's really straightforward, like the Jacksonville game. I saw someone in the chat bringing up the fact that you probably need a Tennessee guy as a bring back if you are going the Jacksonville route. Absolutely. And one guy that I think is going to be a lot more popular than what the industry is projecting right now is Chim Ray Dike.

Because he basically stepped into the Carnell Tate role he was just on the field a ton running a lot of routes we've seen him have success in the past he's one of those guys who like he can create big plays but they also like getting him the ball around the line of scrimmage so you get a somewhat decent floor at least a better floor than we're accustomed to for a min price guy who has like deep ball potential and the big play ability in that regard and so I think he's going to be a very popular bring back.

And another reason why a lot more people go to the Trevor Lawrence stack than what the industry is currently projecting. And it's going to be amazing because then I manner is the play off the zero or whatever. You got a couple of weeks back when it's possible. He can catch the deep ball too. It's like, he could be the guy that's just standing there that they leave alone. Jacksonville also, by the way, a lot of people were talking about this this week.

Obviously they have an incredible defense as is, but the pickups that they made at the trade deadline are not playing this week.

So it'll only get stronger this, next week but it's already very strong so I understand the sentiment for a $4,000 Jacksonville defense here going against Cam Ward but to the point of that bring back it makes sense back to this game for two seconds you know because we're doing two things at once here and we'll finish the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build in a second but it also is the battle of the best guy, like the Olave being the one people feel best about and knowing that it's like him in shock or using him as the run back and Hubbard helps make that decision as well.

But it's the battle of the stackers on the other side saying, well, yeah, but I can just use him as the run back because I know he's the guy and I know my double stack. On this side and even use up my wide receiver position. So it's like, that's where the back and forth is.

What I think is getting missed and what you were nailing with sort of what you were saying there is people often then take those sentiments and say, I'm just going to move off this game. I'm going to go somewhere else. This is what everybody's trying to figure, but it's, it's honestly, I think bad this week because you have, people aren't even talking about stacking Chubb Hubbard with Bryce Young.

We talked about at the start of the season, your data showed that you could stack that up easily. And now you're on the other quarterback on the other side. You could be on Olave or not? We talk about all the time too. What about the guy that really speeds the game up?

What if Tyson does have a big game here and you end up seeing it where he is good at $5,000 and so many people that didn't want to pay for it. He's half or one third the ownership of Olave, depending on where you look right now. And we'll see how it all shakes out in the end. But that's an example. What about Darden Waller? Everyone makes fun of the guy, but he can still catch too.

People did this the other night with Likely. Oh, Likely he, so he's only good when he has those two touchdown games. People said, okay, how about another one for you? Did it again? So it's, it can happen. Those are the things going back and we're not picking on G man, but I think this is the only time that I, you know, you, you know, my slogan, it's not who you play. It's how you play them.

But on them, like when you're looking at a main slate like this, it's in, you're talking about like a QB plus two right receiver and a bring back being the chalk build. It's, it's not really how you play it. It's who you play in it. And that's what, like there's to look at last week. Let's say, let's say your exact sentiment was the same last week. Great.

But how many people had love Golden Watson, DeMario Douglas or something like that or whatever it is. Like it's just, you still got to have the right version and there's so many that you can get to. And then you can add in somebody like there's just so many different things you can do.

So don't worry about that as much as thinking about the build and, as a whole and all how it all shakes out let's try and finish this though um blickle do you want to go to see if we can get like Warren cmc or something yeah let's let's try to get cmc in there uh I think we could also who's the chalk d to you by the way oh man um let's see who do I have down there oh here we go I got it anyway oh no maybe I don't actually Colts Dolphins Texans Seahawks Who am I missing here then?

Let me go back to a cheaper D. I put Robinson in for now. I put Olave. I put Warren. I put Emmett Johnson. So how much is remaining? It's hard to see on the screen. Right now I've got $4,000 and fifty. So up at the top might be easier to your quick mathematician, but it's forty one nine up there. So anyway. I'm trying to see if there's another $5,000 receiver or something that people would go to. It's probably not.

Could you get to Jefferson if you took Wandel down to DK? Let's try that. Yeah. Good call. Let's try that. And it leaves you $2,800, which I think is Miami. But I know that we're on. I know Miami's twenty six. We're on. What's his name? And we're not on the Saints. Who's twenty eight? It honestly doesn't matter. This is, I think, a really good version of the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build. Like it's it's it's got all the one offsOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off that people want.

It has a stack that people want in a very straightforward way. So I think we we landed on something really good here. And it also shows like why if you're going to this game, I think you want to like really over stack it. And so like.

One of the thoughts that I had as you said like okay well what if you go uh a Carolina triple and you just do the straightforward double and you throw Hubbard in there now you're not leveraging that chalk but you're also leveraging most of the Bryce Young stacks that aren't going to use him and are going to try to use it to leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage him and we know uh you know what we've seen like especially in these really good game environments when the game hits a lot of the time it's not either or it's both the passing stack and the running back you can

Also triple by throwing in Dan Waller as you said and so I think if I'm going to this game I will Likely have a Carolina triple of some kind and One of the things that it does is like now it makes it so that you have one fewer one-off that you have to get correct. And, uh, and yeah, I like the, the Vikings decal here that you threw in there as well, by the way, it kind of what fit.

And I know it's with Jefferson and people don't like, it doesn't matter. That's not, we're not trying to pair those together or something as much as it's just like, that's the, the way this one landed. But I, for, for the record, I would prefer it without Jefferson. Well, we're going to talk a lot about this Green Bay, Minnesota game, but yeah, that's a bit of a spoiler for my thoughts on the games.

Like I think, uh, I think you can play that game in multiple ways and play it very, very well, and it's because of how the teams match up from a football perspective. Yeah. What about, um, let me ask you this. Another question that came up this week that I thought was a good one for the show with you is let's say this, um, let's say you're on the Jacksonville stack. Let's say you go to Parker Washington with Trevor Lawrence.

You're good with, let's say Strange or Myers, whatever. Um, you've got your run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back on the other side of DK or, uh, Jameer DK, or you've got one Dale Robinson. You, you got, you got something like that built out. Right. Are you still very Likely to have a Hubbard in there just because you're not on that other game?

Or how are you attacking when you're so high and saying, well, we both said this other game is very eligible and you can build it in so many different ways. So is that a game that you're accounting for or trying to account for regardless? Or are you fine just missing out on it when you move to another build? That's a really good question. That's definitely something that I think the Sims can help answer. Like, wait, we... We mentioned the Sims a bunch.

One of the things that I kind of talk about every time I talk about contest SimsSimulationsSimulations play out a slate thousands of times using each player's range of outcomes, then record what happened. Contest sims go further and score your lineups against a simulated field to estimate how often they cash or win.Use sims to compare close decisions, not to replace your read. If a sim result surprises you, check the input that caused it before trusting it.Read the full definition of Simulations is, like, I think the worst way that you can use contest Sims is just plug in a bunch of stuff and go hunt for the highest ROIROI (Return on Investment)ROI, or return on investment, is your profit divided by the total entry fees you paid, shown as a percentage. Paying $1,000 in entries and winning $1,100 back is a 10% ROI.Track ROI separately for cash games and tournaments, and by sport. A blended number can hide a format that is quietly losing money.Read the full definition of ROI. The best way to use Sims is to answer specific questions like this one. If you are going to a different stack, are you better off making the bet that that Carolina game underwhelms and fails?

Are you better off, you know, just trying to tell a story that, okay, it does... Hit reasonably well, but the touchdowns all go to one guy, and that guy is Chubb Hubbard who doesn't help the quarterbacks get there. It's not something that I think we can very easily answer ourselves, so that's one where I think the Sims can be really, really helpful.

My guess is that you are better off having him I think he could slow down like because he's capable of multiple ways of doing it like yes he can score the points and hurt things but he can also keep shuck off the field it can mean that it's a different game environment or however it shakes out it's like he can do things in a different way so to me it kind of like would make sense doesn't mean you'll need it obviously that's another point that we've tried to hammer home and like you said you can use the sims to tell you that um yeah I think you could also potentially do like Hubbard and the Carolina defense which helps tell the story of Shuck failing and Carolina

Being able to slow the game down offensively uh although like they are a team that even when they've had the lead this year they've been aggressive and continue to push pace because that's just how they believe uh they should be playing offense which is very cool for DFS and another reason to potentially go to Carolina but the the other thing I'd say there is like if I wasn't going to use Hubbard in a build like that, it would just be because there were other guys at different price tags that I really wanted.

And so I'd like, I would very much be cautious of using, uh, let's see. So if we, if we look at like the running backs around him, so like, I wouldn't want to use Kyron or James Cook instead of Hubbard in a build like that. But if I ended up on a lineup that had like McCaffrey, Bajon Robinson and Emmett Johnson, uh, Okay.

Now Hubbard can still go get twenty five and be the reason or be part of the reason why that game as a whole underwhelms. But McCaffrey and Bijan each get thirty five. Emma Johnson gets twenty and like Hubbard kind of irrelevant at that point. And so I think that's the way that I'd try to think through it. Yeah. Everyone's brain works different and you just sparked something in mind. So I'll just right off the top sale.

You said something that's really interesting there. So, you know, Hubbard still getting the points as we talked through, it could make sense and he could do a slow it down a little bit. It could keep shock off the field, but if he's actually doing well and we want him to be keeping like that, what if he's doing really well on the ground, Chuck needs to Chuck. So it's like that might not be good to knock Shuck lineups down.

Now you're hoping that he doesn't come through. One of the more interesting things you said was like Panthers D. So where are they? Right above the very popular Colts, Packers. And then if anything, people are going above them. They're getting like no ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. But that would be where you could use Hubbard and that defense in hopes that he is doing what's needed on the ground to hurt all the other stuff in that game.

But in a way where the D is there to hurt Shuck as a possibility as well. And the reason I say that is because so many people will end up on lineups. Let's say back to my example I was just doing. They'll get to a lineup with...

Trevor Lawrence all these other things they won't end up on Hubbard and that's okay I'm just saying like again not needed I'm just saying they won't even be thinking about that game but then they will actually land on Packers d or Colts d because it's the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk and just because it projects better itself makes sense to me but it's like you're not really accounting for something else on the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate so the way you said that was perfect where you could just do that and that's easier for me process wise to validate than it is just to plug and play and put in whatever it's like well that to me is the way that it would actually work in my favor help my lineup

Not only separate with who I'm playing but also what I'm doing against who I'm not playing and that's how you get that leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage to move up and find that extra ceiling out of it or if again if it's a lower scoring slate to be able to push yourself up enough to where those points actually matter and then people like how the hell did they land on Carolina d I was like shock and Olave it's like that's the point we were not and we thought about it and we landed here and it happened against that so like that call out quite a bit as far as leveraging the chalk build

I think we talked through it from a concept perspective already some like within the same game specifically I know we're going to do game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack analysis but is there anything on the slateSlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate even with the assumption of Emmett Johnson being good to roll here at $4,700 bucks that you're seeing as a constant like as far as how people are landing on the one-offsOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off and that type of stuff. So give us your thoughts there. Yeah.

Go to wide receiver for a second and sort by price, please. On it. I zoomed it in a little bit. So hopefully it's just a bit better and I can go more. I just trying to keep the builder on the side. But now if I take out something, you can see $2,800. It's still a little bit interesting on this screen, but what looks fine on mine. So we'll roll with it.

OK, so there are two things I want to point out here. The first is that there's not a ton of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership at the top of the board. And part of the reason for this is like, As you look through these names, I think one of the things that should be pretty apparent is that there are a lot of stud receivers that are missing from this slate. Puka's injured. There's no T. Higgins or Ja'Marr Chase on the slate.

And you also have a bunch of guys in difficult matchups, like Watson and Golden are number one at a price point that they've never been at before, and number two in a really difficult matchup with Minnesota. And so what I think we're going to see is that there just aren't going to be lineups that choose to invest all their resources at wide receiver. Oh, by the way, also go to tight end for a second and just do the same thing.

Like this is really a slate where people are not paying upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up for tight end. Kittle, maybe at sixty five, we'll get a handful of ownership. But for the most part, like. There's just not a path to people spending a ton of money on wide receiver and tight end.

And so when we have a guy like Emmitt Johnson on the slate, who's giving people such a break in price at running back, we can be very, very confident that the vast majority of lineups are going to be able to pay up at least once for running back. And so I think McCaffrey, Bajon, Hubbard, James Cook, all these guys are going to be potentially a lot higher owned than what their current ownership projections are saying.

But also, it leaves the path open for a leverage lane that I have already used this year and will be using again today. So I'm not going to spoil that yet, but I think a lot of people probably know what's coming based on this discussion. And so I'll just leave it there for now. Yeah, I'm good with that. I think one of the bigger things for me is just going now, and you said sort by price.

I think this is probably fine, but I'm going to sort by current ownership. Again, it's nothing to go with right now on the initials, but when you see, who are we seeing up there right now? Let's see, Jacobs Myers. And it won't be what you think, because like, Even if Golden got to eleven percent, I don't think he will.

But even if he did, that's different at $7,300 than a Concepcion who might be twelve to fifteen when he finalizes at $4,800, for example. Tank Dell is getting a little bit of love, but that's mostly in those stacks. And you talk a lot about conditional ownership. All these... But it's like most of these receivers are getting played as one-offs. I really do want to continue on my path.

It's not my lane this week, but just a note of, I still like the stacks. I did an exercise with Mayo yesterday. It was actually quite fun where, you know, and it's fine. I'm never wrong. Just early jokingly, like saying that of like the Daniels Jones stacks. Cause last week, you know, interested a little bit. And then you look at this week, it's like, who are you going to play between Treadwell, Burks, Gould, Doolin, like Burks, We know Warren popular, but what else?

And so I think it was interesting that like we built out a triple stack with the Colts. And pretty ugly lineup. But going back to your point, it was a way to play those expensive running backs before the Emmett Johnson news and all this stuff too. So I was like, okay, that's whatever he goes. He basically said disgusting. And then was like, let's build a good lineup now. And I was like, well, this will be a good exercise. Cause let's see.

Cause I knew what the projectionProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections was of this build next to his optimal. And it wasn't very far off. So I was like, wow, I'm curious to see if that's his optimal, what's his good lineup going to be. And it was a good, it was a great lineup. It was the Bryce Tet, um, I think we ended up having to go Tyson instead of Olave, but we still played Estime because we didn't have HN News or whatever you want to call them now.

So that's the type of setup where it looked so much better on paper. There wasn't picking between these Indianapolis guys and all this other stuff. It projected two points less and was massively owned. The conditional ownership would have been much higher, like all these different factors. So it was a really interesting exercise just to showcase why when somebody said it earlier about like Emmett Johnson, all right, well, if he gets sixteen or seventeen, we're good. Well, Singletary was in...

I think it was, if not in the Milly Maker winner last week, he was right next to it with eight points. It's also, it's often a product of what they do for the rest of your build. And on this, and the slate dynamics. Yeah. We got a bunch of cheap wide receivers this week, but do we really have a set?

Option where we're like yeah that's the guy like you said DK might be the guy but even then he makes more sense in a over stack of the Trevor Lawrence game where people don't necessarily always end up there because they think it's going to blow out or whatever or maybe it ends up being tootin and DK that's needed as like a secondary stackMini-StackIn NFL DFS, a mini-stack usually pairs two players from the same game without either team's quarterback. Often a secondary group beside your main quarterback stack, it can pair a running back with an opposing receiver.Before locking a pair, describe how both players reach big scores together. Then ask whether that outcome would make an omitted quarterback or teammate difficult to beat.Read the full definition of Mini-Stack that no one's really on where everyone you know people steam up DK but they don't use them in a way that would make sense and then you use a cheaper option or a lower owned guy in a different type of roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Read the full definition of Roster Construction with him But it was just funny to see the exercise.

So I think what I'm saying is when you're going to look at these lower priced, I should say, not about ownership as much, of these wide receivers, I'd be more Likely to use Reggie Virgil in a ram stack than I would with something going on in that game where he's my run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back and I don't have... The ability or mindset in this lineup to pay up for McBride or whatever it might be.

And I say, you know what, I'm going to use Virgil, but I'm not going to use them as the one-off. I'm going to use them as a way to make this lineup work. And if that game's actually going off and going back and forth, look at who I can fit from a floor ceiling perspective in all these other places in my lineup with them, you know, doing a main build or something like that. So that's just another concept for leveraging it.

Obviously the, the game stack is always in that analysis is more up people's alley and we'll get to it in a second, but, But anything more to add on just concept-wise on leveraging the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk build this week? Yeah, I think this is a good time to talk about this Minnesota-Green Bay game because one thing you can do here is notice how straightforward it is to just what we have on the page here. Just take Shuck, Hubbard, and Olave and go love Golden-Watson.

Emmitt will have to move to the running back spot from the flex. Okay. Let's go down to... Where's my guys here? Sort by price again. Auto. Auto move. I like that. New little build-in feature there, so get him out of there. That leaves us at eleven, so we've got to make another move, but I know we're going... Yeah, but you can bring Tyler Warren down to some other guy, or you could bring McCaffrey down, but point being, it's a very similarly priced stack.

We already have the Justin Jefferson bring-back kind of built into this lineup, and... This game is fascinating because it is like fantastic for stack upside. And yet it also is not Likely to succeed. And so essentially what we're going to see here is, uh, Minnesota, the way that they play defense, they have faced a really, really high run rate.

And I think part of this is because the more teams force Minnesota to really prioritize stopping the run, the more Likely they are to actually give up explosives. And so we've seen Buffalo and Detroit hit for a few explosives in the past few games. But understand that... That's Jameer Gibbs, James Cook, and the running game is for Detroit and Buffalo. Green Bay doesn't have anything remotely close to that.

And so the pro and the argument for using this stack, and I think it's a really persuasive one, is that we should see a really, really high pass rate for this Green Bay offense, and we should see... Not just a high pass rate, but like them continue to throw the ball downfield. It's what they do.

And one of like the really unique things about this offense is as deep as they're throwing the ball, love still getting rid of the ball pretty quickly. And so, uh, yeah, what, um, Watson had a really, really good week one against Minnesota. I think Jordan Love threw for almost four hundred yards. They didn't get the touchdowns. They made some mistakes, but like that's kind of how Minnesota wants to play, right?

Like they they want to kind of invite that sort of thing so that they can force a mistake, whether it's a pick, whether it's a sack. Regardless, like they think the more we can make you run plays against us, the more we can make you drop back, the more Likely you are to make a drive killing mistake. Now, To that point, that only works if Minnesota doesn't give up the explosive.

And so the reason to be wary of this game and wary of this matchup is because they don't have to respect the run at all. I think we will see them... Be better than what they've been in the last few weeks at preventing that deep about having more guys back. Flores wants to play a lot of too high, even when he's blitzing, because usually they're only sending like five at a time.

And so I think you have some really good arguments for this stack, but I think you also have some very clear arguments for, against this stack. But one thing I'm very confident in is that Green Bay's possessions are going to be short-lived. They're either going to hit chunk plays and score quickly, or they're going to get turned over or be forced to punt quickly.

And that creates a lot of pass volume opportunity for Minnesota, a lot of play volume, I should say, where if Green Bay is succeeding, now we're getting a ton of pass volume for Kirk Cousins, for Justin Jefferson, And if they're not, then we could see Minnesota potentially try to slow it down a little bit with the run game, but they don't run the ball well. And Green Bay has been much better against the run in recent weeks.

So like the recipe is there for a huge upside game on both sides of the ball. The recipe is also there for a fairly low scoring game where each defense is scoring a lot of drafting points. And so I would almost be okay with like a rule. I'm either going to play at least one of Watson or Golden, or I'm going to play the Minnesota defense. And I think that's a very reasonable rule to have this week.

And it kind of helps you leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk no matter what you do this week. Because one thing we've seen... And one thing I just confirmed to my conditional ownership is that there's going to be a lot of Justin Jefferson one-offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off type play, and I don't like that this week.

I think if I'm playing Jefferson, I'm playing him as a bring backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back to Green Bay stuff, or I'm playing him in a Minnesota stack that uses just one of Watson or Golden as the bring back, so I don't need both of those guys to hit at their now advanced price tag. So that works really well too. Cousins, Jefferson, Addison with either Golden or Watson as a bring back.

Or I'm not using Jefferson and I'm using the Minnesota defense and I'm telling the story of Minnesota trying to slow the game down offensively so there's not a ton of pass volume. Jefferson doesn't hit. Why doesn't he hit? Because the Minnesota defense does what they do best, really slows down this Green Bay offense, gets the ball back and allows Minnesota to play a much slower game style. I like this one that Aaron brought up.

I like the – I'm going to go back to that in a second, but I always see you and just speak on it. But the other thing with the Mahomes stuff, which you guys know I'm usually – it's been – the year of maybe Mahomes is most certainly here because we're getting these spots where it just ends up being with Kenneth Chalker III. Now we're getting Emmett Chalkson. Is getting put in there. Like we're, we're going to always have a name for these guys too.

But I think if you go Mahomes rice, if you want to put Kelley, you don't have to, but obviously flipping it is Bijan on the other side. And by the way, we'll see what Bijan's ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership does because Bijan was going to be very popular until M. Johnson comes into play, and it's not that he won't stay popular. It's noting that a lot of people don't like to play two in the same lineup. They think, oh, I got it covered on the other side.

It's like, well, he might have the wrong side. So that's definitely a thing also. I think that's that. Enviously, great news in the year twenty twenty six, almost twenty twenty seven. We have really good ownership projections. You'll be able to check those closer to lock. It's it's not possible. Like, you know, they just there's no way on this slate. So if you zero chance, yeah, go back to them. There's no chance that those guys will be popular. Unless you mean Green Bay defense.

And even then, like, yeah, well, that'll be popular. Green Bay will be popular. Probably about both. These, these could make sense. I do love one thing you mentioned there though. Um, look at six, eight hundred dollars. Jefferson does fit the mold for me.

Of saying what I've said in the past like Jefferson at kind of any price and almond raws and guys like that that can get olaves they can get you thirty five thirty to thirty five and maybe their quarterback isn't needed because sometimes they do just catch all the balls over the middle rack up ppr points etc so maybe you don't even get a touchdown you can have a nine for one forty and have a pretty good game at $6,800 but And with Ja'Marr Chase, I was going to say two touchdowns.

That's a big game for Burrow. But Kirk Cousins getting put into those stacks this week when he's only $5,300 and Jefferson has a hundred and forty yard game with a touchdown and maybe his old friend. Don't forget Cousins and Addison. That little connection they used to have in Minnesota was a thing. You got Bartholomew. At a tight end or whatever version you want to go with down there, him or your row sick are there at $2,500.

And then we know Watson and Golden can make this game move on the other side and they don't really have running backs. They do, but they don't. So it's like it could definitely be a game where you play for the ceiling. And if it doesn't work out, so be it. You throw it in the garbage and move on. Only, you know, it's not going to win for you. But I do see that being a possibility.

I like your idea of stacking Jefferson before just throwing him in as the one off at twenty five percent owned or whatever. Can you highlight this comment from JM Eagles? First of all, if you're an Eagles fan, go Birds. It might be something else. This one? Yeah, so... The comment here for anyone just listening, Jefferson only six, eight hundred dollars. He can get there regardless of a back and forth game. That's true. Like, that's absolutely true. But we're not interested in can.

We're interested in, like, telling the best story that we can with our lives. Right. This is this has been one of the major themes that we've kind of talked through with this leverage lane show over the last year and a half now is our goal is to build the best lineup possible. It's not to build a lineup that can win, but the line that gives us the best possible chance to win. Jefferson at $6,800 can hit regardless of the game.

But without question, the the game environments in which Jefferson upside like really comes to fruition and really shines through as like this is a spot where he can crush and where he's worth his really high ownership projectionProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections is.

Is when Green Bay is pushing them and when Green Bay is pushing them we know where it's coming from it's like one of two guys is making explosive plays like you know most of the time it's even you can add in Tucker Kraft because Tucker Kraft can also make explosive plays but Minnesota is a ridiculously good defense against tight ends partially just because they force a lot of tight ends to kind of stay in and block with all the the blitz looks that they provide but yeah When Jefferson has his explosions in this matchup, it is coming with an explosion from a very low-owned Christian Watson or Matthews Golden so much of the time.

I would even say I would prefer not to do a mini-stackMini-StackIn NFL DFS, a mini-stack usually pairs two players from the same game without either team's quarterback. Often a secondary group beside your main quarterback stack, it can pair a running back with an opposing receiver.Before locking a pair, describe how both players reach big scores together. Then ask whether that outcome would make an omitted quarterback or teammate difficult to beat.Read the full definition of Mini-Stack. He made a follow-up comment that he doesn't want to force a mini. I think that's fine, but... What I'm interested in is if I'm using Jefferson as part of an actual game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack. The mini works. You can do that, but that's not a huge bet.

The payoff there isn't huge, whereas the payoff to a Minnesota stack hitting or a Green Bay stack hitting, now you've just got four guys right, and you've got them right in a big, big way because when this game hits, like we're saying, it can hit in a huge way. And that's kind of the last thing that I'll say here is I don't think that's the most Likely outcome.

I think the most Likely outcome is that Minnesota's defense, Brian Flores, are able to take advantage of the fact that they don't have to prioritize stopping the run in this matchup the way they did against Buffalo, the way they did against Detroit. And consequently, they are able to prevent the big plays from happening. And I think that that makes Minnesota a good defensive play. But let's also compare the payoffs of being right about that, right?

Being right about the Minnesota defense being a good DSTDefense/Special Teams (DST)Defense/Special Teams (DST) is a roster selection representing one NFL team's combined defense and special teams, rather than an individual player. It earns fantasy points through sacks, takeaways, defensive and return touchdowns, and other plays, with adjustments for points allowed.Compare what a DST upgrade costs elsewhere in your lineup. If paying more forces you off an important offensive role, check whether a cheaper defense offers a credible path through sacks and turnovers.Read the full definition of Defense/Special Teams play this week is tiny in comparison to to potentially being right about this game environment going off and hitting that ceilingCeilingCeiling is the high end of a player's or lineup's realistic range of fantasy scores. It describes a big performance that could happen when things go well, not the expected score or an absolute maximum.Describe what must happen for each player to have a huge game. Then check whether those conditions help or hurt the other players in your lineup.Read the full definition of Ceiling outcome. And so I'm absolutely giving the Minnesota Green Bay game stack a lot of consideration, even though I don't think it's what's going to play out. I think the way this game plays out is that it's semi-low scoring and the defense has performed quite well. Yeah. And I think it's interesting too.

I think Cousins Jefferson is like the same price as Shuck and Olave. So it's just interesting when people are just playing, if you're playing even that again, I like the overs. I like to stack it more and go with that, but I'm just saying, I think that's another factor. And then there is some stuff with the Minnesota side. We're still waiting on Addison news. We know Hawkinson's out. We've already got some stuff there.

So it's like, again, when playing it and playing for the ceiling, that's, that's what we're trying to do. So yeah, Let's see here. What else do we got? Other games. Another thing we added here just so we can look at this and go through it is just to exclude all and then go to a game. What's another game you want to go to? Because we had the Green Bay Minnesota game from a stacking perspective.

Do you want to go next to the San Francisco Dallas game? Yes, I do. Yeah, let's go there. I've got it sorted by all, but we can obviously go by position and see it throughout. I think this is just a good look, sort by price. You can kind of see where the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership sits for this game and all that. Talk to me about this one a little bit as we keep it moving. This is a hard one.

I don't really know how to approach this one. The very clear and obvious thing is that I think the San Francisco offense is going to have a field day here. But this is kind of what I alluded to right away on the show today, which is just because we have a lot of confidence in the San Francisco offense doesn't mean we have confidence in where it's going to come from. It could be McCaffrey. It could be Kalen Black. It could be Kittle.

It could be Keenan Allen in his first game with San Francisco. It could be Brandon Cooks. There are just so many guys here. It's hard to stack up Purdy with confidence. To me, this is like... This is an offense that I would have a ton of exposure to if I were MMEing this week. And part of the reason why this works so well is that these guys are all low-ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage. Debo's also in the mix. Jordan Watkins is still in the mix.

So if I were MMEing, I could have... ...and be overweight on every single one of his skill players... Just do all double sacks and just hope that eventually I land on the right combination of two guys with him. But it's, uh, it's very difficult to get there in single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry or even like a three or four entry type bill. Cause you just can't cover all those combinations and I still want exposure to other offenses.

And so, uh, I think it's, it's a very difficult thing to do in, uh, in small field stuff and single entry stuff but man if I were mmeing this week I'd have a lot of purdy and I would just have tons of combinations of these like one to five percent on guys that he's with do you have the stats on this I gotta go with this question it's coming up because you're talking about purdy but like there's nothing our YouTube chat loves more than playing quarterbacks naked Like every single week, man, it's like, oh, I'm just going to do naked, naked Mahomes, naked May, naked Josh Allen, naked Gino, naked Purdy.

I get it. You don't know who to stack with. We, none of us do, but it's just been proven time and time again, that if you're going to get there, you want the combination of it all. Make it easier on yourself. Like, I don't know. I just don't understand it, but like, I get it. I know where it comes from. People are nervous or they're scaling. How would you know if it's deep? That's the whole reason we don't give a shit about picks and plays.

And we're talking about process and building. It's like, I don't know. It literally could be this week. Purdy with old man, Debo and old man, Keenan Allen for the NFL. That is obviously still very young dudes, but just noting it, it could be those two with pickings. Oh, it could be those two with Flournoy on the other side after a big zero bomb last week. And you're like, oh, see, you would have never known.

Like Alex said, though, in MME, I'm just going to double it and I'm just going to get overweight on it. And I'm going to look for those combinations and play enough of it. And hopefully it works out. It's that's the kind of game that we play in that spot. But go ahead. Yeah, I'll put some context on this. Since the start of last season, the field has used a naked quarterback without a bring back four point four percent of the time.

Lineups of that type have been found in the top one percent of lineups, zero point eight percent of the time. So it is one of the most under it is probably the most underrepresented type of build in the top one percent by like a percentage difference that you can possibly find. It's an awful, awful strategy. It only becomes marginally better and therefore it's still terrible if you add a bring backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back or even add to bring backs. You can't outsmart the field in this way.

It's just not a good way to build. I think the easiest way to talk about this is if you're using a naked quarterback, what you're doing is you're playing a fantasy football lineup and not a DFS lineup, and that's one of the things that we always talk about. You want to be playing the game of DFS, not fantasy football. Yeah. And I don't know, like, uh, I'm definitely not the season long guy.

I can promise you that, but I, I've done quite well in my, the ones I do still play in. I know they're friends leagues and smaller buy-ins and stuff, but most times I've got a stack. Like I'm it's how I draft or whatever. I just, I think of it that way. And it's like, I'll have Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. It might only be a single, but it's, it's literally seasonal. I don't need to stack. I'm just saying it does go together.

Like it just, it makes sense to me and that's how my brain works, but yeah. I'm so glad you brought that data point. That's my quant over here, guys. This guy got the numbers. Four percent. They're doing it. Not even one percent. It's happening. Like just it's nuts. Right. It's one time it happened or something. Yeah. People remember it. And so it just it feels I get how people understand. Like, I totally understand it because people just say, well, how would we know?

How we figure no one knows shit. We tell you this all the time. We do know how to play DFS. That's that's a fact. That's why the same people end up at the top experience, et cetera. Like we know how to play the game. Nobody can tell you what's going to happen. These locks and picks and winners and bets and you name it. It's, it's over time. You can have an edge and you can have their sports betters. Alex does it all the time with props.

You can have an edge and over time it plays out, but there's a ton of losing days that go into it as well too. It's what do you get over the longterm in DFS like this? We're playing one slate, one, one weekend, one event, nothing that happened last week has anything to do with this week. We're starting over. Oh, see Gonzalez is going to lock down these Packers. Did he?

I've never seen them put up a hundred fantasy pointsFantasy PointsFantasy points are the score a DFS contest assigns to a player or team defense by converting real sports statistics and results through its scoring rules. Your lineup's total determines your contest ranking.Before trusting an average, check which games it includes and whether the player's role has changed. Separate repeatable opportunities from a few unusually productive games.Read the full definition of Fantasy Points across three guys like that. And this guy got worked, but everyone told me that he, there was no way they could beat that matchup. It's like every week, there's a new story with this game.

I think one thing that I will see is, again, we won't see enough of it because I don't really have that same data point for triple stacks, but you have like Dak, Lamb, Pickens is talking shit and saying, tell your girlfriend and your wife to look for me. I'll be out there. Like he's really ready to go. Um, Flournoy might be better with those two, both being on the field as opposed to last week when he just gets slammed into the wide receiver to roll.

Um, but Ferguson is out as well. So you got span Ford there. So I don't know. It's like at least somewhat interesting. I know. I just worry that's going to be too many of these versions. And I know it's not about being duped. Like we're talking about this three V three zone, but if you just go like Dak span Ford lamb, um, CMC or something like you kind of, and then you get Emma Johnson and they're like everybody else. Then you get all the other same stuff.

Like, I think that's probably more of a smaller field play, regardless of the ownership on those guys. It's just, I'll have to look at it and see how it seems out and goes. But what do you think about that? Yes, I do have data on triple stack. So triple stack with a bring back has been used three percent of the time. It's finished in the top one percent, seven point six percent of the time.

It is one of the best strategies that you can possibly use. And I'll use that to to promote Black Analytics. And if you want all of that data, that's where you can find it. It's it's pinned in the Discord. And it's also just right on the optimizerOptimizerAn optimizer is software that builds DFS lineups within a site's salary cap and roster rules. It uses projected fantasy points, your settings and, in some tools, simulations to select combinations for a chosen goal.Build a small test batch first. Check which players and combinations repeat, and investigate why before increasing the lineup count or changing settings.Read the full definition of Optimizer. So the way that I found that is I just went to my optimizer. There's a QB stacks shape section.

Just hover over that and you see every single type of stack and how how much better or worse it's been in terms of its representation in the top ten percent top one percent of lineups compared to field usage. So cool, cool, kind of handy tool there. As far as Dallas is concerned, I think, you know, JM Eagles in the chat pointed out that like the forty Niners defense is getting healthier. They're also just a good defense.

And one of the things that I always look at, like obviously implied team totalsTeam TotalIn NFL DFS, a team total estimates one team's points, usually from the game total and point spread. It includes scoring by the whole team, not just offensive touchdowns or fantasy production.Recheck team totals after major news, then ask which players actually benefit. If your projections already reflect the change, avoid adding another automatic boost.Read the full definition of Team Total matter and the game totals matter. But we should also think about it relative to typical production. As high as this game total is, Dallas is implied for fewer points than the average. Is that a reason to stack them up like crazy? Probably not. The reason why this game total is so high is because they're playing a team that's implied for way more points than most of their opponents.

That doesn't make Dallas in a better spot. It potentially helps their pass rate, so you can make that argument, but that's kind of it. It doesn't mean that we should expect Javonte or CeeDee Lamb to go score more touchdowns than they usually do. They probably will score, you know, their, their touch and equity is probably a little bit less than usual. Does it make up for that? The fact that like, they might have more pass volume, especially CD lamb or George Pickens.

And so that it makes it possible. And certainly like, the game could go off because San Francisco is really efficient early in scoring, and now Dallas has to pass a bunch, and it's a faster game that way. And maybe Dallas does score, and it forces San Francisco to stay aggressive for four quarters instead of the two and a half quarters that they've stayed aggressive for most games this season.

So there is a path to upside there, but Uh, the, the difficulty in projecting like who's going to have success if San Francisco has success and the fact that this actually isn't a great spot for Dallas does make it hard to get to this game as kind of inviting as it is, especially on the forty-niner side. Yeah, it's the latest. The other thing about this slate, there's only three late games and only one at the four twenty five p.m. Eastern time slot.

So, you know, the times are up at the top. The team totals is current with the game totals, et cetera, et cetera. But the, you know, like late swapLate SwapIn NFL contests with late swap, you can change unlocked afternoon or evening players after earlier games begin. Only games included in that contest's player pool are available.Before the first games lock, identify affordable backup combinations for your later players. Check that each combination fits the open positions, then confirm your saved changes in every affected entry.Read the full definition of Late Swap. And I mean, you're probably on it in the game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack. So it's like if you're dead and on the other side, there's only so many things you can do on this slate when it comes to that. We'll talk about some of those other games in a minute. But I will say that.

I guess it's more of the Green Bay, Minnesota thing for me, where it's like you said, we're not really, all that makes sense. Everything that was just explained is accurate to me. And even you mentioned, Jam Eagles mentioned it. Like all that is true. And they just kind of have a good D and all those things. I like the Purdy side and the unknowns and figuring that stuff out.

But the Dak side stacks, you know, Dak stack, it rhymes easier too, but that side is definitely easier to figure it out. And again, not because we know who it's going to be, but if it's like Lamb, Pickens, Brevin, Spanford to make it work, or it's Pickens, Flournoy, or Lamb, Pickens, or sorry, Lamb, Flournoy. And then that, like those triple stacks of... The two wide receivers out of the three and the cheap tight end that was already kind of taking Ferguson lunch.

And now Ferguson out makes the triple stack work quite easily. And then we know it allows you to get to CMC. If you've already got, and I just, I worry it'll end up very similar because once you do that and you have CMC and Emmett Johnson or whatever, it ends up being in there. You're kind of almost in the exact same spot. I think you'll still be a two V two three V three or way. So it's not about being duped.

I just don't think you separate that much. Hopefully the other stuff you have in there from the morning is, went well, but I think that's going to be somewhat interesting. At least I'd rather like use Pickens as, you know, a guy just to say that he's, what is he? We got it on the screen here, six, three hundred and hope that he gets you, you know, twenty five to thirty.

And he's the guy because not many people are just on him or using him as a one offOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off or anything like that. So it's something where I wouldn't really want. I kind of would rather stack. But if I was doing it, it might be with him who lesser on. Yeah, I'm kind of interested in him, too. And I think I agree.

Like if If you're going to this game in single entry, I think it kind of has to be the Dallas side just because it's so much easier than kind of build something that like if the game hits, you're Likely to have the right combination of guys. But that also makes it very, very pricey. And and yeah, I don't I don't feel super great about Dallas offense here as a whole. Yeah. And I, you could also do like a CMC pickings or something like that.

Like in the second where that's like the running game, but also the, the, the comeback, but you might not need it with shit. We saw lamb get almost forty last week or thirty five or whatever. Thirty three and change. I think it was, it was Puka that had almost forty, but lamb had almost thirty five and you're not needing lamb and Dak at all. So it's like the, any, anything can happen with these guys.

It's just a matter of sort of what we're playing for. And that's what I would think about when it comes to that. Um, what other games here from a game stack perspective did you want to hit on? I know Houston Cleveland is kind of interesting.

Yeah, that's, that's probably the, uh, the only other game that I'm giving a lot of consideration to maybe some Gino stuff against Buffalo, but the Buffalo defense has actually been, uh, a lot better than I, I think, uh, I think I was giving them too little credit early on because a lot of the production they had given up was just late game. A lot of their first half stuff is really good.

In the last couple of weeks, they've been really good, especially from a DVOA perspective. The Cleveland-Houston game is very interesting. I got to bring this up quickly. I did a $10,000 simulationsSimulationsSimulations play out a slate thousands of times using each player's range of outcomes, then record what happened. Contest sims go further and score your lineups against a simulated field to estimate how often they cash or win.Use sims to compare close decisions, not to replace your read. If a sim result surprises you, check the input that caused it before trusting it.Read the full definition of Simulations before we came on here. How many do you think McCord showed up in? I'm going to go with zero. It was zero. Yeah, that's for sure. So if he gets there, fantastic stuff. But that's pretty crazy.

Someone in my Discord late last night asked about McCord, and I just said, go to bed. Just get to bed. I'm with you there. But yeah, so the Houston side is really interesting because Cleveland is number one in the rate at which they play single high. And so Houston offense has looked good. They've looked explosive. Tank Dell is starting to really come on again. Keyshawn Booth had a really nice game and is a very nice deep threat at times.

The thing that's kind of giving me trouble there, number one, I would really like... We actually already have Martin Harrison Jr. Out, and I'd have different iterations of it where one's Nico and Dell, one's Dell and Booth, one's Nico and Booth, and just kind of cycle through it that way. The difficult part is the bring backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back isn't super easy. I almost think that maybe the best way to play this is actually going to the Cleveland side, getting...

Two of three of Boston, Concepcion, Bannon, and then bringing it back with either Dell or Booth, and now you don't have to worry about Nikko's price tag as much. And now that turns it into a really, really cheap stack. Now you can surround that with stud running backs, stud receivers, whatever you want to do with the rest of that lineup. Yeah, the chat is saying about the stream and some stuff. Maybe it's slow or whatever. It says it's lagging for anyone else.

I'm not sure. We go through it. Sometimes it's with StreamYard or whatever it might be. I promise you the Wi-Fi. There's no Wi-Fi, by the way. It's Direct Connect. We're almost a gigabit per second here. So for streaming, you need that. If it is StreamYard, we apologize. And obviously, we'll just keep rolling. Alex, to me and you, I hear you perfectly, see you perfectly. Yeah. Clean and clear. Right. So apologies guys.

But, um, you know, sometimes that's what it is with streaming services and whatnot. So for our end, we're doing everything we can to keep it up to, to speed for you guys, but just want to note that I think this game is interesting. Obviously the Hutchinson, if he just would go away, would make it easier.

The problem for me is I am going to be stacking the Stroud side and I'm going to have to play some Hutchinson because the fact that last week's Dell performance just means he's back and it's a hundred yards and They left him in. That was awesome to see. The guy had a very serious injury. Comes back. I'm sure you saw it. It was garbage time. We're still getting this guy's hundo. He goes to the sidelines. That's a huge thing.

You came back from such an injury and now you get to come back into a game and play at a high level and you got all the way there. And a hundred yards, a hundred yards. It's not easy to do in an NFL football game. So to bounce back and get that, I think is big. I still think, like you mentioned, if it's First of all, like Nico Collins is almost $7,000. So it's awesome when you're stacking with Stroud, you know what you're going to need.

He's a hundred bucks more than a popular Jefferson is right there. Like let's use them in the stack. He's, if he's having a big game, it's a two touchdown type game that we called earlier this season that he had, like that was a great week. I think that makes sense, but you also can avoid it and go to Dell Hutchinson, Hutchinson booty, Dell booty. Like you said, like there's so many ways you can do it.

And then I like Concepcion and or Boston on the other side to just continue. I mean, Concepcion left the game, not quite Watson levels of like go to the hospital, come back and play, but left the game, comes back in, gets the touchdown, helps them get to OT. Bannon got an OT touchdown. Like it was a pretty crazy game. Last week, somebody mentioned the Deshaun Watson revenge game.

But, you know, just in general, I think when these two get humming a little bit, you could see it go back and forth very easily. So building for the ceilingCeilingCeiling is the high end of a player's or lineup's realistic range of fantasy scores. It describes a big performance that could happen when things go well, not the expected score or an absolute maximum.Describe what must happen for each player to have a huge game. Then check whether those conditions help or hurt the other players in your lineup.Read the full definition of Ceiling outcome here is a good idea. And there's tons of ways to do it, which is what I like. As far as the revenge is concerned, they've had a pretty high pass rate all year. He's wanted to have success when he's thrown the ball all year. Doesn't really help him this week.

One last thing I want to mention on Houston. It wasn't just garbage time for Tank Dell. You weren't saying that, but I think some people might wonder about this. In the first half, Dell had Two for sixty six and a touchdown on four targets. That was second on the team and targets only behind Xavier Hutchinson. He was out there running a bunch of routes. Booty had two for forty seven and a touchdown on three targets already.

Routes wise, though, it was Hutchinson who led the team in routes in the first half of twenty three. Nico twenty two. Then Dell fifteen. Harrison eleven. Booty eight. So I think, again, like no Harrison, that might mean that, you know, Dell goes to seventeen. Booty goes to thirteen, something like that. And those two guys, I think, very much are in play. And again, this matchup is absolutely perfect for them. They're high average depth of target guys.

And it's a matchup with a team that plays a ton of single high, which really, really helps the high ADOT guys. And so Tank Dell, fifteen point six. Nico Collins, fourteen point one this year. That's extremely high for for a guy who has. The, the role in the volume that he has. So man, if he's healthy, like this is, it's an incredible spot for Nico Collins. He's not getting ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership.

I think he's a really, really good play, but I'm also intrigued by the, the idea that, okay, if he's not healthy, then this continues to be an amazing spot for Dell and booty. So lots of different ways to play it. It's if I end up playing multiple lineupsMulti-EntryMulti-entry means entering more than one lineup into the same contest. A contest's entry limit, such as 3, 20 or 150, sets how many lineups one user can submit.Set your total spend for the slate first, then divide it into entries. Multi-entry should spread a fixed budget across more outcomes, not raise how much you put at risk.Read the full definition of Multi-Entry this week, it's so that I can actually do like an iteration of these guys and not have to make one single bet on them. Cause I think this is a tremendous spot for the Houston offense.

Yeah, I like that call out. So we'll both be in that side. For me, it's the Stroud side for sure, because I'm going with Nico and one of those guys or skipping Nico and those other guys. I'll have different variations of it. But I do like that. The one last one you said, and then we'll kind of round things out a little bit, but not going to spend a bunch of time here, but it's kind of the same.

Idea this does set up very similar for everybody right I can just build the starting point of it and you know we're waiting on I think the official Wilson news but we expect him to be in so like I don't know what version you think people get to here but there's a couple different ways it can go but assuming Wilson is in You can put Cooper instead of Mitchell, but I don't think people are going to hesitate necessarily.

But I think if you are stacking this spot, it's not going to be a popular stack, but this is what the stack will look like when people go here, some version of this. Yep, I agree, and I think it's a pretty good one. The one hesitation I have is James Cook at thirty-one carries last week in a really physical game. There's a chance that... I wouldn't say that... That Buffalo is going to like really react to that and treat it differently.

But I think there's a chance that, you know, he's just a little bit less explosive than usual. Uh, I, I kind of looked into this and the explosive rush rate for running backs the week after, after, after, after, after, after, after, after, after, after, after, Maybe that's a little bit of randomness, but it's a fairly large Sample because I looked over the last five years or something like that.

And so I do have a little bit of hesitation on James Cook, despite what is a very, very good matchup. But I just felt like that was worth throwing out there. And when you say, I mean, that's definitely good. Like I say, it could be noise, could not, but you've got actual data backing it up. And I would just note it from, we are still seeing almost a thirty-point road team totalTeam TotalIn NFL DFS, a team total estimates one team's points, usually from the game total and point spread. It includes scoring by the whole team, not just offensive touchdowns or fantasy production.Recheck team totals after major news, then ask which players actually benefit. If your projections already reflect the change, avoid adding another automatic boost.Read the full definition of Team Total for the Bills.

And obviously, it could just go through Josh Allen, and we talked about it earlier. No, I'm not doing naked Josh Allen, but just to note it, How do you account for that then? Is that just something you'll say, I'll leave it alone? Or maybe he just gets his eighteen points and it's like, I don't need him, so therefore I'm good? Or are you looking to make up for it elsewhere in the lineup? What is your thoughts around something like when you see that data point?

Yeah, I don't really know. I think the first thing that I'm interested in is, can I get a Ray Davis one and a half rush attempts line somewhere in the books? So that's something I'm going to be looking out for for a week. But yeah, from a DFS perspective, I don't think it really changes much. It kind of just means... Uh, maybe if I go this route, like it would actually be to a Josh Allen thing.

And like, I'm saying, okay, well, what if, what if the Gino success that I would otherwise be betting on with a Gino double just pushes Buffalo to the point where it's a Josh Allen game. And then, you know, you could do something like Alan Moore, Kincaid with a Wilson bring back, or you could even single with double bring back, right?

Like you could do Alan DJ more and then go Brees Hall and Garrett Wilson, or even Garrett Wilson and one of the other receivers. And you just hope that, you know, one of those guys gets there purely on yards. The other gets a touchdown. And then if Josh Allen has a ceilingCeilingCeiling is the high end of a player's or lineup's realistic range of fantasy scores. It describes a big performance that could happen when things go well, not the expected score or an absolute maximum.Describe what must happen for each player to have a huge game. Then check whether those conditions help or hurt the other players in your lineup.Read the full definition of Ceiling game, like it doesn't really matter what Gino Smith does. You're going to want Josh Allen ceiling game anyway. So I think that's on the table too. I think it'd be worth for all.

I will say this then, you know, for this is like, first of all, this is possible, but also not always needed. That's the difference. That becomes a sports betting or a prop betting thing. We're like, man, well, if it's not going to be him, you could take unders on James Cook. First of all, you're not finding that Ray Davis thing, at least not anytime soon. We'll see if they actually put it out there because that'd be amazing for us.

But it's ninety one and a half for rush yards for Cook. Kind of like where it's not that enticing, even though you're thinking it could be a lower game for him. It's still ninety one and a half. It's not up there that crazy. And then his attempts are right at what you think. Twenty and a half. Well, he had thirty one. Might not get thirty one again. We're not. That's the obvious part. But twenty and a half makes it tricky. Go ahead.

Yeah. I mean, the other thing here is like. What I found was that there's a decrease in explosive runs. I didn't really see a decrease in volume throughout the regular season after a thirty plus carries. So if that's the case, like that just maybe makes it more Likely that we see a game like last week for them where he went thirty one for one oh seven. He had a longest rush of eleven yards like that.

If that's what his box score looks like, even the week prior, twenty one for eighty along of sixteen and a touchdown against Baltimore. Like if that's what we're seeing, that doesn't necessarily mean that, oh, it's not James Cook. Therefore, it's Josh Allen. Like that just might mean that there are fewer explosives in the Buffalo offense. That's not good for anybody in that game. So it could just mean that it's a it's a spot to avoid.

Yeah, seventeen and a half is the longest rush from a betting perspective. What I was going to say, the only thing I was going to add is if for all the folks that watch us again, it's all about picking your own lane. But for all the folks that heard us talk about, like, we'll just go with Purdy and mix it up in MME and we'll just go with Stroud and mix it up and look at how that is handled.

Yes, Josh Allen is expensive at $7,500 versus all the quarterbacks everyone else is on. But he's affordable and his receivers are very affordable. They start at $5,800. His tight end is $5,100. So if you want to try and mix it up with him, just that's another one where everyone that's like the most common one. Right. I'm going to play Josh Allen naked because he'll crush it and I don't know what else will happen.

Well, you might just want to bet that with the props because that's where you'll make the money for sure. And you might not even still need him for DFS. But if you think he's actually going to be needed and you're flipping the side of that stuff we talked about with With Geno Smith and those guys, you could try it the other way and use those Jets as the run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back instead. And you'd still be very affordable set up here.

Let's just get a quick example on this and we'll go to our leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage lanes unless you or somebody else wants to cover everything else. But let's just use more. Let's use... I'll use Wilson just because it's fine. And let's use... It's about the same, but where do you think? People probably go more Shakir, okay? This is $25,000 one hundred. Just call it $25,000. Now let's go back. Oh, look at that. Every single Bryce Young, Coker, Tet, Olave lineup.

I know it sounds disgusting. I'm just noting, but it doesn't for what we just talked about. Or you can play Josh Allen, Garrett Wilson, and then you get in DJ Moore and Shakir. Yep. By the way, if you're like, well, Shakir a loser. I much prefer Keon Coleman. Great. You just found yourself more money. So it's just interesting to see those types of things and not many people dig into it.

And I know that people would still probably pick this side of the coin, right? You know, here's what you can look at too. Almost a sixty five point projectionProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections. Not about total ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. We put that because people like to see it as more about product. But for now, just so you can get an idea. So sixty five and forty eight. And then we'll go back to it. Sixty five and forty eight. Just pick these common guys. Twenty five, one, sixty and twenty nine.

So it's like four and a half points or four, just under five points off on that. If you're not on Cook and you're trying to leverage them and look, I get it. Like you don't know what Shakir or Moore are going to do. That's kind of the point. But if you think it's not Cook and it is Allen, you still think the Bills are putting up thirty points to Blickle's point. Maybe you don't need anything out of that game.

But if you're not, look, there's some people that would be more afraid to play the Purdy, debo Robinson lamb stuff because like well that's really hard to predict with all those forty Niners there maybe this feels better for you but just know if Josh Allen goes through the air this is just an example to show you guys but it's it's always worth looking at things like that I love doing that exercise I'm trying to find those things and obviously I wish I would have found it um last week for the yeah Drew Lock Just flip that.

Even though I didn't mess up the rest of it, I would have just land on those two. I would have been much better off with just Golden and love and still got seventy five points or whatever from that and been good. But we live and learn and move on. Let's do the same here. Anything else you want to talk about on that front and game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack and that sort of thing? If not, let's get to our leverage lanes. You said yours was good to go.

The last thing I wanted to mention before we get to leverage lane is I saw some chatter earlier about potentially leveraging Emmett Johnson with some Mahomes stuff or with Rashi Rice, Josh Downs, etc. I just want to make the quick point. The way that Rice and Downs both operate is short-term. Quick gains. Right. And so if if they are having a huge game, that usually just means that Kansas City is moving up and down the field.

And if Kansas City is moving up and down the field, that's very good for Emma Johnson, not bad for Emma Johnson. So I think the way that I'm going to consider using Rashi Rice and he is one of the best GPPGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: usually only the top 20 to 25 percent of entries get paid, and a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Read the full definition of GPP scores, if not the best GPP score of the week in my stuff right now.

Would be alongside of Emmett Johnson, not instead of, and, and I would just hope that like not many people are making that pairing where they're saying, all right, I have already got my chief with Emma Johnson. I don't need to use both, uh, I really wish the Taekwon Thornton was still healthy because Atlanta's playing a ton of single high as well.

And so like, this actually is a spot where maybe my homes can hit someone deep, but like right now, I just have no idea who's even running deep for them. So it's hard to play anything in that regard. But, but yeah, I do think it's a good spot for rice. I do think I have a lot of interest in him, but I will be using him with him at Johnson. Not instead of. You can play Worthy, man.

Worthy had multiple chances at touchdowns his last time out. I mean, he was downfield. He was there. He's so bad. He's so, so, so bad. Interesting. $4,300 bucks this week. So I don't know. We'll see where it ends up. It's probably the best way to play Mahomes. He's just so bad. Yeah. And he couldn't get in both times. He had ample opportunities to get in. He could not.

So maybe, maybe got to get a little bit stronger on those, be able to tear away from those tackles or whatever. But yeah, this is twenty $3,000 as an example. And I went with London as opposed like I think, again, I know flipping the build a lot would like something more like this. You can most certainly do that. But the best part of it was is to, like you said, sometimes leveraging it is not moving off of it. It's playing.

How many people are going to play Emmett Johnson? Tons. How many people are going to play Emmett Johnson with Mahomes? Not very many overall, right? When you think about the whole slate, you know, with everything else going on, Emma Johnson will be in almost every type of stack on the slate, but how many people will stack them together with my homes, then keep it rolling from there with a triple stack or a double stack with a run backBring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back or all that sort of stuff.

So, all right, man, what do you got for your leverage lane? Where are we? What are we? Are we talking concept? Are we going to a game? What do we got with this one? Uh, we're going right back. I shouldn't say right back. We haven't done this in a few weeks, but we're going back to the Jameer Gibbs flow chart of if Gibbs is not on the slate, we're going double stud wide receiver.

And I don't know which receivers that I'm interested in right now, but I mentioned earlier that like, because Emmett Johnson is on this slate, most Likely because, uh, there's not a ton of interest in the expensive receivers and very little interest in the expensive tight ends. One thing we can be very, very confident in is, is that the vast majority of lineups are going to include an expensive running back.

And when that's the case, we see really, really low conditional ownerships between two stud receivers. So let me give you an example here. In JSN lineups, what do you think CeeDee Lamb's conditional ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership is right now, given the fact that his projected ownership overall is nineteen percent? I don't even know the numbers because I was stressing out. We just got the official news, which we knew it was coming anyway, but it's good to go now. So Kenneth Walker III out. So go back.

The question is, is C.D. Lamb in lineups with CMC? So no, in JSN lineups, what do you think C.D. Lamb's conditional ownership is? Lamb is nineteen percent overall. What's his conditional ownership within JSN lineups? Three percent to two point three percent for four percent like that's three percent. Yeah, I was going to say that's crazy. And it's it's not unique to those two guys, by the way, like Watson goes down to three percent. Golden goes down to three percent.

Chris Olave goes from twenty three to eleven percent. Justin Jefferson goes from forty two to twenty five percent. It all just comes crashing down, and it's not just JSN. If you go Lamb, same idea. JSN's conditional ownership now, one point six percent. Watson, one point nine. Golden, two point eight. Olave goes from twenty three to nine percent. Justin Jefferson goes from forty two to twenty three.

So it's like basically any combination of stud wide receivers that you can think of on the slate are going to be really low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage together. And that's going to be my leverage lane. I'm going to try to play some of these guys together and hope that it's a wide receiver ceiling week instead of a running back ceiling week. It's going to put me on a unique roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Read the full definition of Roster Construction. And there are plenty of really good cheap running backs too.

It's like, you know, I don't feel like there's a ton of opportunity costs with these expensive guys where I can't go play a Charbonnet at $5,600 in a great spot against Las Vegas or even a Jadarian Price or Blake Corum at $5,100. It's another really good spot for him. So I'm Yeah. I think, uh, you can call this a double pay down at running back.

You can call this double, uh, star wide receiver, whatever, but it is my leverage lane this week and conditional ownership, uh, shows why it's so powerful. So I need one more from you. And this is amazing because I, it sucks. We just got the news. This was going to be regardless of Emmett Johnson, but ours are going to go together and work quite well now for people.

So it could be a big week for the leverage lane folks, but just to note it, um, What is the only one that I can see would be worth looking at and comparable? What is Olave with the Carolina guys together in a lineup? I know like stud. So be like whatever, sixty seven and whatever. It's not always just about the pride, but those would be like Tet and Olave. What would that be? Yeah, that that's a good point. And I should have brought this up.

It doesn't hold when when you're within a. When you're within a popular game stackGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack or within a game stack, the conditional ownership discount does not hold. So, for example, in a lot of the lineups, McMillan goes from eleven percent overall to twenty percent conditional. Coker, who's not a stud wide receiver price wise, but he goes from nine and a half percent to eighteen percent. So that's a very good call out. It doesn't hold in that way. I should have made that point.

Because that's, I know they're not even considered the same, like the class, even of what we're talking about, but the idea of people not always recognizing that too, is like, clearly that one is because it's in a stack game, but people will play that a bunch and have it together a bunch and then mix them in even as one offsOne-OffIn NFL DFS, a one-off is a player you select outside your stacks, commonly a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. An opposing receiver intentionally paired with your stack instead serves as a bring-back.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off. And the other one, Lamb can be owned, but with someone like a JSN, not very often.

Four percent of the time, that already sets you apart. And that's where, again, a lot of people look at it and like, oh, you know, I need to get different here, here, here, and here. It's like, well, you can play two of the best wide receivers on the entire slate together and be different in its own right, even though, but Lamb's twenty percent. It doesn't matter if you're playing him with this guy, though. And however, the rest of your lineup shapes out.

So. And to that point, by the way, to that point, like one of the other things that you can do there is you can say, okay, well, I want the correlationCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation. So imagine you go like Justin Jefferson and Matthews Golden, for example. Well, now the conditional ownership for a CD Lam or JSN is even lower.

So if you can manage to fit three of these guys, which I don't think is super difficult on the slate, especially if you're going double pay down. At running back and you're not paying upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up for a tight end, it's really doable. And now you're getting like crazy, crazy low conditional ownership on that third receiver who's not relevant to that game. And so, yeah, there's a lot of like really, really interesting fun stuff we can do in this regard on this slate.

My leverage lane is on the screen. We are going to a Seattle running back here. Pick your poison on what you think it is. Like I'm going to be using both of these guys. I think it's a great spot. I love that it's in the afternoon. I think the matchup is right. I was going to say, regardless of if you have, if Kenneth Walker had been in or out, I was still in on this. I think there's something interesting here.

First of all, I think Charbonnet in the spot and the projectionProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections, everything shows and like he would be underpriced if he was the guy. And there is like there was a video from last week that showed him like trying to run to the sidelines and what's his name? Their coach. It's on tip my tongue. McDonald. McDonald. He was like, no, get back in there. And he's like, oh shit. Okay. Like this guy's just coming off injury. Like he's fine now, obviously.

And he gets used to the goal line, all that. He makes a ton of sense. He's $5,600. You can get to him quite easily. I do also think a little bit, though, about generic price, not just for the savings, because it's only a few more dollars. You can, you know, we're just moving points around like this could be twelve point one and ten point three. You can only do so much based on the numbers and the data.

Obviously you can put a little bit of your, your, your, I know ball or I know better spin on it, but I do think, you know, this guy's a first round draft pick. We've been waiting for the bust out spot. We've been waiting for the game. We almost have a perfect storm though, because it is a great matchup. It would be a great time for that. It's, it's a good spot.

I know it's on the road, but like it's on the West coast, still there, West coast. Like it, it all makes sense. When people now are in on Charbonnet, not like chalk in, but they're now like, Oh, he's back. He's the guy it's all decided. And then it would not shock me or surprise me in both the past game and the run game that you could see generic and price be involved at $5,100.

So I actually do think that's the case where you can now play, you know, You can play Johnson, one of these running backs and to pay upSpending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Read the full definition of Spending Up wide receivers and then figure the rest out, tie our leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage lanes together and put yourself in a, in a unique spot this week where you'll still be a little bit different.

And obviously if you play price instead of Charbonnet, I think it would be even more different because even though similar price would only set apart by five hundred bucks, I think the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership will be set apart by eight to ten percent when it's all said and done. So, yep, I agree. Somebody said no Kenneth Chalker. I said it earlier, though. Emmett Chalkson. He's going to be the highest owned guy of the year, I would say, right? I think so, yeah.

I mean, there's a real chance that he's like, yeah, it definitely makes sense. So, all right, man. Let the people know everything else you got going on, where they can find you, and we will get out of here. Yeah, BlickAnalytics.com, same as always. You can find all this good stuff, the roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Read the full definition of Roster Construction stuff, the conditional ownership. I still don't think that people quite grasp how powerful and helpful this conditional ownership stuff is. And I'll also give a teaser. It's November XIV.

We're not that far away from the start of PGA season, and I think it's going to be a total game-changer for PGA because – Some of this stuff in NFL, some of the conditional ownership stuff, it's straightforward. It's easy to understand. There's no real surprise to a lot of this conditional ownership stuff, at least once you've heard it once. Man, with PGA, it's like the hidden conditional ownership stuff is not something that is intuitive to us.

And it's going to be a total game changer because there are some really, really unique combinations and things like that. So yeah, go and check it out. Be really familiar with it. And then crush it all PGA season as well. Yeah, it's going to be fun, man. Love it. We do leverage lane year round. So you guys are going to be hearing about it, but you got to get in to be able to use it. You can use code Tambo at Black Analytics.

You can use code leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage depending on the plans you're looking at. So go to Black Analytics, check it out. If you guys want to get in at Ship It Nation, we do have the rest of season specials on. This includes through the playoffs, through Super Bowl. It's much less than the competitors. You saw the Stone 2.0 point oh on the screen. That's just one tool getting the Discord. Get into Ship It Games. If you don't know what that is, go to Ship It Games dot com.

There is still six weeks left left seven I guess um yeah ten plus so ten through sixteen to get in and get a Golden ship a ticket we give away three per week you can get in that contest right away once you're in it's in the Discord pinned in the NFL channel but one hundred forty nine bucks gets you the rest of the season one ninety nine if you want to have saversim to go with it so that's going to do it for this week guys if you have any other questions you can hit me up on x at ToeTagginTambo for alex for myself ToeTagginTambo good luck in your contest this week let's ship it