NASCAR DFS – Cook Out Southern 500, 2026 | DraftKings Drivers, Dominators & Place Differential

This weekend, back to NASCAR, this weekend, once again, we're at Darlington Raceway for the Cookout Southern five hundred and there are three hundred and sixty seven laps on tap for us tonight, which should equal out to roughly two hundred and fifty six dominator points on DraftKings. That can always change with caution laps or with NASCAR overtime, et cetera, but roughly two hundred and fifty six. The most important thing so far.

Of this slate is this next sentence both practice and qualifying were cancelled they had some bad rain some lightning in the area and it just got cancelled which means the starting lineup was set via the rule book now when it's set via the rule book a large portion of that is from the results of the previous race now as we all know the previous race was daytona where there were a couple big accidents that really jumbled up the field uh not only in the finish of last week's race at daytona but now the starting lineup of this week at darlington which means we have some pretty heavy chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ plays uh basically spread throughout the field.

I think literally thirty fourth, thirty fifth and thirty six will probably be the most played players of of the day to day. But yeah, with no practice, no qualifying on a track that is extremely, extremely hard on tires. I wrote in the Slate Station report that in the next gen era, a good car can mask a bad driver.

Or a mediocre driver I don't want to say if you're not a bad driver if you're in a cup ride but in the next gen era a good car and a good team can most times mask a mediocre driver not tonight darlington raceway has the nicknames the lady in black and the track that's too tough to tame for a reason It is high tire wear. It is a weird like egg shape. It is a driver's racetrack.

You will see more car, more cars up and into the wall tonight with, and then without stopping, right? It's not like every time a car gets into the wall, the caution flag is going to come out tonight because there's going to be cars in the wall probably within the first ten or fifteen laps. Most cars will have a big old Darlington stripe, as they call it, along the passenger side body panels.

Expect to see not only beating and banging with the other drivers, but just beating and banging against the racetrack itself. If you have never watched a race at Darlington, I highly recommend you give tonight's race a shot. It should be an excellent show, especially with the starting lineup as jumbled as it is. So let's go ahead and bring up the NASCARstone.pdf that I have blacked out all of the appropriate goodies here so I don't share everything away.

And once again, practice and qualifying completely rained out and canceled yesterday. I'm not going to lie. I normally am a big practice data user as it comes to Darlington because long run is king at Darlington. If you can't get around here for thirty, forty, fifty laps in a run, it's going to be a long day and practice, especially when it's a forty five or fifty five minute practice. I forget how long they made it.

A fifty five minute practice with everybody on the track at once is really beneficial in finding out who's good at those long runs. However, we don't have that data this weekend. The first time these cars are seeing the racetrack are going to be for the race tonight.

So in that case, I am relying heavily on the power rankings and particularly the track rankings um track rankings is using uh from the darlington results from $2,000 and twenty three on up I I removed the twenty twenty two results from that algorithm because that was the first year of next gen and uh everybody was still figuring stuff out and we're kind of far removed from twenty twenty two so track ranking is from twenty twenty three on up for the next gen era uh for darlington only and then the track type ranking is the tracks of the tires were used at this year.

Chicagoland, Vegas, Charlotte, Nashville. There's three more that I'm forgetting. I'll give you that information in Discord. But so the track ranking is from seven race track type ranking is from seven races from this year with that same tire combination.

So this week I am really relying on track rank track type rank recent form although truthfully track rank and track type rank out out do any recent form for me uh and Vegas odds Vegas odds uh that's that's gonna be my my three keys for building today but really track rank and track type rank will be my number one and two So we don't have any practice or qualifying to talk about today. So we're going to go ahead and write down and break down this starting lineup.

And I think I'll finally maybe be under twenty eight minutes today because I don't have practice to talk about. So Tyler Reddick is on the pole. He is fantastic at Darlington. When you give when you give Tyler Reddick a high tire wear racetrack where he can rip the top. He's going to rip the top. Uh, he already has one win in the next gen era at Darlington.

Uh, I pasted a few videos in Discord this morning, uh, which showed him, I don't think I posted victory, but I showed him a couple of times up near the front of the field. Reddick is really good here. Uh, he needs a really good start to the playoffs. He's had a tough go of it. He was the hottest driver in the series to start the year. And then he kind of cooled down a little bit. Um, Redick will be setting the pace tonight.

I don't think he'll have any issues gapping Suarez or Ryan Preece, but that remains to be seen how long he can stay up front because, like I said, Daniel Suarez is in second. I really don't have too much love for him today. Sorry, mi amigo. Ryan Preece. If Ryan Preece was starting anywhere other than third, I would be all about it. But I don't see him anyway finishing in the top ten. I don't see him winning. He's going to lose spots.

If he pulls off a great DFS point tonight, I'm going to eat my shoes. I love Ryan Preece. He had a hell of a run last weekend at Daytona to put him into this chase. I just don't think that will translate till tonight at all. I might be wrong. I just I don't see it. Danny Hamlin is in fourth. He also has one win in the next gen era. Denny is the points leader heading into the chase.

We all know he's been on fire all year, as have the entire Joe Gibbs racing stable of Toyotas. So, of course, we have Denny in there. Michael McDowell at Austin Sindrick is fifth and sixth. No, maybe Sindrick, maybe, but definitely not Mike Mack. Chase Briscoe, yes, yes, yes. Briscoe is fantastic at Darlington. He has two wins in the next-gen era. One was in a Stuart Haas car, which definitely was not the top equipment back in the day, and last year in the Joe Gibbs car.

Uh, he is not projected as nearly as much ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ as Briscoe is. I can't, I'm not going to give out, uh, hold on exact numbers here. Let me open up my, there we go. Yeah, so he is projected not nearly as much as Redick and Hamlin are as far as potential dominator goes, but don't not sleep on Chase Briscoe. He is excellent here at Darlington. This is a race he looks forward to.

Not many of the drivers look forward to coming to Darlington because it is a hard day in the office. Not Chase Briscoe. Chase Briscoe is all about the lady in black. So I expect a good night from Mr. Briscoe. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. And Austin Dillon at eighth and ninth. No real love there for me at all. Sorry, boys. Same with Alex Bowman.

I've kind of dismissed Bowman ever since the lame duck stuff came out of him losing his ride at the end of next year. However, he has had some decent runs recently. For Bowman. Um, I just, again, I don't see it tonight from tenth place here at Darlington. If this was another racetrack, sure. At Darlington, I just don't see it. Uh, Christopher Bell, yup. It's a Joy Gibbs, Joy, it's a Joy Gibbs. Uh, it's Joy, goodness gracious, Eric.

Joy Gibbs, Toyota, uh, they're the best team in the, in the, in the league this year, like by far. Um, and he's excellent at ripping the top.

He doesn't, uh, grade as well in the track rank as far as like rank like he's at a b minus compared to reddick hamlin and briscoe's b plus a pluses uh but still it's christopher bell I think he finished like third last year I might be wrong on that but I think he finished around third he's fantastic race car driver he can rip the top he can save tires there's no reason not to play him or at least consider him in your player pool uh brad keselowski yup he's also a previous winner here at darlington uh rough go of it

This year uh but still old veteran knows how to save the equipment I wish he was starting deeper in the pack like he normally does for us but he is starting up near twelfth which could scare people away so if you want to take a gamble which hey we're all gamble gamblers you want to take a gamble on keselowski I don't hate it because like I said he is a previous winner here uh he is priced fairly moderately at only $8,300 he's not getting a lot of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ love and he could put in a solid night I know he's burned us here or there a couple times this season but

Every week is a new race and we have to look at it that way at keselowski good scores and points tonight Uh, Joey Logano and Josh Berry up next. Uh, Joey Logano, he could pop off a win at any time and not be surprising. Uh, Josh Berry has been on quite the run recently.

Um, he is, uh, highly expected to take the cho hunter nibachek ride at legacy motorsports next year so I I think those the the the good runs will continue for josh barry especially because this is a high uh tire wear racetrack I'm not going to go out of my way to play him because we have some deep deep plays who I think are better plays But if you land on some Josh Berry, I don't hate it. Riley Herbst and Cole Custer.

Nope. Riley Herbst was announced as running for Legacy Motor Club next year in the car that JJ would run. Sometimes I just I don't have any love for him here at Darlington. And same for Cole Custer. If this was an Xfinity Series race. Yeah, all for it. But not the Cup Series. Bubba Wallace and Chase Elliott. Sure, Bubba's good here. He doesn't really get talked about for being good here, but he's good here. Just look at the rankings. Plus, he has pretty good recent form.

So, yeah, no issues taking a shot on Bubba. Same for Chase Elliott. Chase Elliott's kind of mediocre here. He has a decent track type ranking for this season. If I get him, yeah, I just don't think I'm going to get him at $9,000. I just I don't I don't think I'm going to click that button, but I don't hate it if the button is clicked. I just don't think he's for me.

John Hunter Nemechek, he was fired this week from the Legacy Motor Club ride. He's out at the end of this year. This was a little.

Bit unexpected I think it was even announced maybe earlier in the year that they were planning on like extending or going forward but he's had a very rough go of it and they just decided hey Josh Barry's here killing it why don't we put him in one of these cars so he's gotten the boot so that means he's now a lame duck and uh which means I have zero interest in john hunter niemicek because I think he was already kind of a little bit of a head case uh and now he lost his ride so yeah not for me dog uh willie b yep uh he also has a win here at darlington love me some willie b they um they haven't been as

Dominant lately they haven't had as much speed lately and that by they I mean not only the twenty four team I mean hendrick motorsports in a whole but It's the chase. We're in the playoffs, baby. Everybody. Not that they weren't on their a game before, but. They were in a comfortable position. They were never in a way of possibly losing out of the playoffs. So they might have been doing some testing. Trust me.

Especially in the previous playoff formats, once a team would lock themselves in, they could kind of use the rest of the year until the playoffs as a testing session. They could try crazy things. And if they blew up, That sucks, but at least you know, hey, don't do that in the playoffs when it's championship time, right? So just because Willie B has been a bit down recently does not scare him away, or does not scare me away from him.

He might be scared of me, but it does not scare me away from him. So no issues taking a chance on Willie B. I do have him listed as a potential dominator, and like I said earlier, since practice and qualifying was rained out, Dominators potential dominant plays are starting all throughout the field today versus kind of charble towards the front. Todd Gilliland. I'm normally a proud member of the Gilly gang. Not today. Corey Heim.

He's in the player pool every time he straps in a car. That kid is talented beyond his years. Two-time winner this year in a part-time ride. It's crazy. Dross Chastain, yup, I'll take the chance. I love Mellow Man. Ryan Blaney, the big thing with Ryan Blaney is he failed pre-race inspection twice. Now, what does that mean? That means his car chief got ejected. Not the crew chief, the car chief got ejected for the rest of the weekend. And he lost his pit stall selection.

So not only is he starting, what, twenty-fourth? He now has the worst pit stall on pit road and his team have had notoriously bad pit stops this year, like notoriously, like it's a theme, like it's discussed on broadcast how not so great his pit crew is sometimes.

So Blaney's fast every single week, but a track like this, starting where he's starting and he gets a crappy the worst pit stall paired with his team scary uh larson young money twenty-fifth yup larson one win as well here at darlington in the next gen era ripping the top tire wear that's larson it's been a while since he's won Yes, it would not surprise me to see young money park it in victory lane tonight. Ram racing. I know you would like that.

So it wouldn't surprise me. And he's starting twenty fifth. So he'll he can get you fast laps for sure. That is a part of dominator points. And he can win this thing like you can win this race from twenty fifth because it's that type of racetrack.

Right like it's that type of racetrack so he's starting deeper in the field but that does not scare me off young money uh next up we have shane van gisbergen I will take a flyer on old svg he's been trending upward as far as oval racing goes and he was bumped out of the chase last week with ryan priest's win so I think he has a little bit of a chip on his shoulder He has been trending well as far as oval racing goes.

And this is tire wear. This is all tire wear. And SVG is fantastic, fantastic at saving tires on road courses. Now, obviously, we're only going right here, right? Rather, we're only going left hand turns here. No right hand turns to be found. But he does have that very unique skill set and he's been trending upward lately. For his price and his projected ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, I will take a shot on SVG. Do I think he's going to win tonight? No.

Do I think it could be another really solid night, which would mean for us good place differential points? Absolutely. Ty Dillon? No. There's actually a rumor that Ty Dillon's not going to be back with Colleague next year if Colleague goes to...

Goes to dodge goes to ram in the cup series I'm not sure if they would be dodge or ram the cup series or what the heck it would be I guess just dodged uh there's not any ram car so I assume it would just be dodge um There is a rumor that he won't be with Colleague because of how close he is to Pop Pop and Chevrolet. So he could also be a lame duck.

That's still, even if he was locked in for the next five years, that probably wouldn't change my opinion on him here. But Ty Dillon, that's a no for me. The furthest starting Joe Gibbs racing car is Ty Gibbs in twenty eighth.

$8,800 one this year parked it in victory lane is in the playoffs is in some of the if not the best equipment in the garage and he's only $8,800 why love me some ty gibbs today give me give me old gibby uh no gregson I'll take a shot uh this is like a driver's racetrack right and Look, Noah's no slouch. Noah was really good when he was in the Xfinity series for JRM.

I know even myself clown on Noah sometimes. But the kid can drive a race car. I just don't think front row has... Of Augusto all the time, right? This is a situation where I think a good driving performance from Noah Gregson can give him positive place differential all the day, which gives us the points we are looking for. Should you go out of your way to jam him in your lineups? No. Could he be a great last click? Absolutely. Absolutely. A.J.

Allmendinger and Conor Zillich in thirtieth and thirty first. I'll take a shot on the Dinger. He's he's colleague as well, but he's not as he's not as bad as Ty. Right. Like the Dinger Dinger. I'll take a shot on the Dinger start here in the back. Conor Zillich. Yeah, I'll take a shot. He is. He's driving that forty eight car for Hendrick Motorsports two years from now. Obviously, they see something in him to give him that ride.

I know he's having a very, very, very rough rookie season, like very rough rookie season, but. But he's an excellent road course racer, real course racing, you have to save your tires. That's what you have to do tonight. That's my theory on why I'm giving Shane Van Gisbergen a shot. And that's why I'm giving Connor Z a shot. Shane Van Gisbergen is sixty five.

A hundred on DK and starts at twenty-sixth Connor Z $5,700 and thirty-first so if you like that line of thinking which I hope you do consider Connor Z because then you could maybe pop him in and then upgrade somewhere else next up Austin Hill and Zane Smith I have Austin Hill as a GPPGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗ play I think he's like a one fifty max GPP play. I don't think he's a he's a twenty maxTwenty-MaxA twenty-max contest lets each user enter up to 20 lineups. It sits between small-field formats like three-max and the largest 150-entry tournaments.Plan all 20 lineups before building any of them. Decide your stacks and exposure limits first, so the set works as a portfolio rather than 20 separate guesses.Full explanation ↗. He's just cheap at $5,900.

Not as cheap as silly as fifty seven, but cheap at fifty nine. And he has positive PD ahead of him. He has also signed for. I'm not sure how long his contract is for Richard Childress Racing, but he will be full-time in Cup Series next year. Yeah. Yeah. Zane Smith. He's had some good runs for us this year. I don't love it, but he has had some good runs for us this year. Now here comes the heavy chalk here in the back.

Carson Hosovar in thirty-fourth, Chris Buescher in thirty-fifth, and Eric Jones in thirty-sixth. I'm an Eric Jones fan. I like Eric Jones. Eric Jones is fantastic at Darlington. I don't know why he sucks. I don't want to say he sucks at other tracks, but you know, not the greatest at other tracks. I'm not sure if it's a Legacy Motor Club thing, if it's a whatever, right? That does not seem to matter when it comes to Darlington.

And the fact that he starts thirty six makes me so excited. What does not make me so excited is his projected ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. He is projected to be over fifty percent owned. I don't love that. However, I do think he is a really good play today. I think he will. He has a shot to win this thing from thirty fifth. And that's no joke. That's how good he is at Darlington. That man can save tires at this racetrack.

It seems like like I don't I don't understand. I don't understand. But Eric Jones is fantastic at Darlington. He's starting deep in thirty six. I just wish the rest of the industry didn't also love Eric Jones for us because he's literally priced perfectly at $7,500 and he's starting so far back. I just wish the rest of the industry wasn't also in love with Jones. But back to Josevar and Buescher. Look, Josevar, he's had a rough... Kinda couple weeks.

It seems like my man got that social influencer girlfriend and forgot how to drive a race car sometimes. But it is the playoffs. He is in the playoffs. It's go time, right? So last week he was in contention and he got caught up in an incident. Maybe it was his doing. I'll let that, I'll let you decide. Uh, God take last week out of your mind. Uh, he's in a fast car, a Hendrick affiliated car playoff driver. Yep.

Play some hosts of our, uh, and Sam goes for Buscher. Buscher's great race car driver, fantastic race car driver. And he started in thirty fifth at $8,600. So those three, uh, Hosovar, your highest owned will be Redick, Hosovar, Buescher, and Jones. Like, by far. By far. I love those last three, but we are playing a skill game. We are playing DFS. We're trying to beat the other player. So I don't mind pivoting.

I just, there's some hard pivots to make when it's those three drivers starting so deep in the field when it's a driver's race. So they will get a lot of attention today. And for a good reason, they are excellent plays, the three of them. And then rounding out the field is Cody Ware in thirty seventh and Chad Fincham in thirty eighth. And let me tell you, zero interest in any of those boys.

I quoted at the beginning of this breakdown, I would probably be under time and we're at twenty nine minutes. I just can't I can't get away from this half hour, which, hey, that's OK, but. I thought today was going to be a shoe-in for being under the half-hour mark, and that's not the case. So anyway, that is your rundown for the Cookout Southern Five-Hundred tonight at the track that's too tough to tame, the Lady in Black Darlington Raceway. The Cup Series playoffs kick off tonight.

It should be a really good race. Once again, no drivers to the rear as of this recording, which I'm recording at nine thirty on Sunday morning. I don't expect drivers to the rear to be announced until much later on in the afternoon. And even then, I kind of don't think we're going to see much because those cars didn't hit the racetrack. The big thing to take away from yesterday is, once again, Ryan Blaney did indeed fail pre-race inspection twice.

Which means he loses not only his car chief for the weekend, which isn't that big of a deal, but the more important portion of this is he loses his pit stall selection for the year, not for the year for the race tonight, which means.

He is pitting in the worst spot all night long with a team that has given him disastrous pit stops all night long it could be a very difficult night for mr blaney or he could overcome we will see anyway as always if you have any follow-up questions about any drivers or anything concerning this slate today please feel free to hit me up on Discord If this happens to be the last time you're playing NASCAR for the year because it's NFL time, thank you for sticking with me, sticking with the content.

I appreciate it as always. However, stick around, please, because we have nine more races after today, including some good ones. So... I know the NFL is coming, but don't forget about NASCAR. We still have fun over here on Sundays. So anyway, that's it for me. Have a great Sunday. Have a great Labor Day weekend. I will be at a racetrack tomorrow, but I'm relaxing the rest of the day today. Good luck in all of your slates. And as always, let's ship it.