Shows / NFL/ Thursday, September 24, 2026
From the archive. This breakdown is for the Thursday, September 24 NFL slate. Salaries, weather and picks were for that day.
Latest NFL show →Mike Petta, Tyler Tamboline, and Zach Trivett break down Atlanta at Green Bay with Bijan Robinson drawing the most captain ownership. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are preferred captain alternatives with Jayden Reed out, while Drake London ($8,800) gets a boost from Michael Penix Jr.'s return. Tucker Kraft draws strong captain interest but disagreement over blocking responsibilities. Bijan remains a major piece, and Penix is preferred in flex over captain.
Kaleb Johnson stands out at $4,000 on DraftKings, though Green Bay's backfield remains unsettled. Cheap Johnson captain builds should leave salary unused to reduce duplicates. Skyy Moore and Jahan Dotson lead the cheap receiver discussion, with Jonnu Smith and Charlie Woerner offering alternatives. Atlanta's defense is overlooked against a damaged offensive line. FanDuel's tighter pricing makes kickers stronger values; MarShawn Lloyd's $9,400 salary draws an explicit rejection there.
| Play | Call | The Take | At |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAPTAIN | Strong captain option with multiple-touchdown and ten-catch upside, although his ownership makes other captains easier to get overweight on. | 11:01 | |
| CAPTAIN | Preferred captain with Jayden Reed out and Green Bay's receiving work more concentrated. | 11:22 | |
| CAPTAIN | Preferred captain whose expected ownership makes it easy to get overweight while Bijan Robinson draws the largest share. | 11:48 | |
| CAPTAIN | Strong captain endorsement for catch volume and multiple touchdowns, but the hosts were split because offensive-line injuries could force him to block more. | 12:16 | |
| CAPTAIN | Wanted overweight captain exposure with Michael Penix Jr. returning and London expected to attract much less ownership than Bijan Robinson. | 13:11 | |
| CAPTAIN | Low-owned captain option at a $4,000 flex salary, but leave money unused instead of filling the remaining slots with all the obvious studs. | 16:25 | |
| CORE | Expected in most lineups because of his workload, receiving upside, and the offensive improvement from Michael Penix Jr. replacing Cooper Rush. | 17:26 | |
| LEVERAGE | Explicit flex interest at roughly 33% ownership because he handles the ball on virtually every offensive play; captain was rejected. | 23:37 | |
| Fine in flex with Green Bay receiver captains and considered at captain, but the hosts differed on exposure and some preferred cheaper alternatives. | 24:02 | ||
| VALUE | Great DraftKings value at $4,000 with a possible majority of Green Bay's carries, although the backfield is not settled. | 26:19 |
Systems go. Clear for liftoff. What's up, everyone? Tyler Tamboline here, a.k.a. ToeTagginTambo, back for another edition of Showdown Shippers here on the Ship It Nation YouTube station. We got Thursday Night Football, Atlanta at Green Bay, got Hoop, got Title here with me as always, and I got to bring in Title first. It was a no-dart start, heard a lot of people, but a . To round it out and finish.
And I know there was some weekend stuff and close calls, but it's always nice to get a shipper. So congrats to you. Love to see that up top. It just shows like anything can happen. It's hilarious. I think you even called it like, yeah, one line up here, the rest over here, but it only takes one. How you doing my friend? Congrats again. Awesome way to get a Monday started. Now we're back for some more Thursday action. Yeah. Thank you. I appreciate it.
I mean, it really does show that back in the day, usually when I saw like a portfolio with like, two percent of someone at four percent, I just X'd it out. And then I use contest flashback over at Sabresim, starter and above. You can see what the pros are doing. And like Squirrel Patrol, I remember the one day when the Nick Chubb injury, when he won all the money, he had like two percent of one guy and won it all.
And I'm like, man, and I see it more and more. It's like it only takes one lineup. Each lineup you make should be independent and tell a story.
Yeah, I played sixty teams and I had fifty six of sixty with Dart, so I said that in the Discord. And like, it's the game we play. I'm not like internally tilting. I'm just like, all right, four out is four chances to win it all, is not Likely. And man, it went like wire to wire. It was crazy. Not saying it wasn't a sweat, Likely versus scat quorum at the end. I mean, it was a sweat for sure. But yeah, it just shows you just need one team, and especially with how top heavy DFS is nowadays, and especially showdown. All your bubbles can be to the left.
As long as that one's in first place, that's what you're playing for. So, yeah, it felt good to get a little lucky and felt good to get there, especially after Sunday. So we'll take it, and I appreciate it. Now the Packers are back on the slate, so I'm excited. That's the other reason I went to you first. Definitely excited for this from that perspective. We're going to be looking up some names, checking out some of these dudes. You know, the kicker's name is Smack.
Gotta love that. Nice one to kick it off to. Hoop, I'll bring you in, man. Another episode, another edition of Showdown Chippers. We got Thursday Night Football. What's your thoughts here? How you doing, my friend? Yeah, another week already to week three and a solid game from a DFS perspective. We have quarterback change with Penix coming back, which we can kind of get into and talk through that and how it changes the dynamic of the game.
I definitely think it changes the fantasy outlook for some of these guys, but for the Falcons and actually winning football games, I'm a little skeptical, but we can get into that. We have injury on the Packers side, Jayden Reed out.
I mean, the one thing with the Packers, talked about it, uh, I don't know, I can't remember what show, but we talked about it where last year it was like very tough on main slates to stack the Packers offense because they're cycling in like five or six different wide receivers. Well, this year they've consolidated that, and now we have one of those guys out. Jayden Reed's out, so that's definitely going to be a big talking point. And, you know, the the pass catchers on the Packers side, uh, are going to be a big conversation and probably a big part of what I do today. So we'll go through, talk it all through.
But, yeah, the kicker stuff is funny. It's like, man, these teams just get, like, these random kickers. That Colts guy last late just, I mean, effortless, like, from super deep. And this guy today, Trey Smack. That's a hell of a name for a kicker. I'm excited to check him out a little bit here today. Yeah, some are saying, you mentioned it, when these guys are out, you can get the Green Bay Stackers instead of the Packers. It's more possible.
And now you can stack with smack with the Green Bay Packers and be able to do it up. So we'll see how it goes. I will go to Utah. Imagine that. We got Nades in the chat just stroking a new Packers player. He's a stud. Of course he is, Nades. Just like Golden was last year. Hey, Golden doing his thing right now. We're going to be talking about Golden. Hey, they're a big difference. I'm talking last year, not this year. We'll get into Golden for today.
It's a different story than last year, but yeah. Yes, today's price is not today's price. Any opportunity to take a shot at Nades cannot pass up. He knows I love him. I love Nades to death, but got to take those shots.
Uh, yeah, we'll save some of these questions, Title, here first, just so, uh, he can talk through it. You know, we'll get a we'll get a Title grand scheme overview on this one. Packers at home. One thing that was noted, Title, and you keep an eye on a ton of this stuff, I mean, Nate's already mentioned Title too sharp, talking about the win on Monday and just staying in the mix. But the the chat was talking a lot about, uh, big line movement on this one, this slate being interesting, all that. Give us your grand scheme overview on this one. Packers at home here versus the Falcons. Yeah, low total at forty two and a half.
Four and a half point favorites are the Packers opened up at seven and a half. That is a lot of line movement. But Cooper Rush was as bad as pretty much any starting quarterback has been in probably the last decade. So whatever you think of Penix, whether you think he's trash, OK, serviceable, whatever. Even trash is better than what Cooper Rush was. That dude was as bottom of the barrel as possible.
So the offense has to get a big bump there, especially London, Tyler Pitts, and all that. As far as the Packers side, I think this was a great showdown. Now, I kind of want to say it's terrible because I said it was terrible Monday and I won, and now I like it. So it's a little scary, but... The Packers running back room, it's up in the air.
MarShawn Lloyd had a bad fumble in the fourth quarter, and then they went to Caleb Johnson, and Caleb Johnson looked good. He is going to be popular, though. One of the more popular value plays at $4,000, but we have unknowns at the running back room. And I mean, heck, Chris Brooks will rotate in a little bit as well. So that's good when talking about OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. Sorry if you can hear my dogs barking. Hey! It used to be a thing, by the way.
Do you remember those days? It might be too young, but if the dog barked in the background, it meant, and you said Chris Brooks and the dog barked. So that used to be like the sign that that's the guy you got to play now. And they'd go off and you're like, oh, the dog knew, but maybe it's Chris Brooks night. Go ahead. Hey, I mean, Chris Brooks is showing to be very low on a $5,400.
That's one way if you want only a couple teams at the top. But then, yeah, no Jayden Reed, which definitely makes it better. Christian Watson expensive, Golden, but Skyy Moore, another. Unfortunately, I think he's going to be a little more popular than we have him at $2,400. But man, he is really impressed. He played well. Thirty six percent of snaps last week, which was number three. Obviously, Reed went down in the first try, but he out snapped Mountain. He outstrapped this Sturdivant guy.
He's a punt returner. He's had some big plays for sure. Skyy Moore has. So I do think, especially with the Packers being favored and I mean, it's pretty concentrated on the Falcons side. The value isn't great. I think you're going to see a lot of four, two Packers, even five, one Packers and then three, three. Anytime you're playing more Falcons than Packers today, you're I'm not going to – like a two-four with Bijan up top and then four Packers isn't necessarily ContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗.
But it is really clear that when you are going to value, the Packers side looks a lot better than the Falcons. So just know that roster construction-wise. And the first thing I always do is look at captain ownership. We have Bijan over double the ownership as the next highest. And, I mean, it makes sense. We have value on the slate. His projection is by far the highest. And, yeah, with Penix back, it's a big bump to Cooper Rush.
I don't think you can stack the box as easily. Yeah, it's a great overview. And I think a lot of things that we're going to take away when we get to the captains and then bring into the positions as well when people go through it. Before I kick it over to you real quick, just want to remind everybody about ShipItNation.com and ShipItGames is being the big thing right now. So if you want to get into ShipItNation, very easy. Go to the site, click join the nation.
The trials are down there. So title just talked about there's a trial. If you want to get starter or ultimate, that's where you get things like contest flashback to be able to dig in. If you haven't yet heard or you live under a rock, whatever they say, it's like you look at Ship It Games. We're giving away $45,000 in cash and prizes. So I want to give a quick shout out. We had the first three winners.
And then this past week we had Drew, DJ and Raphael came through. So we got the first six Golden Ship It ticket winners. If you want to find out more details, you can simply go to ShipItGames.com. But it is a community contest. Everybody that has any all access content only or SaberSim plan will or NFL only content only or SaberSim plan is eligible to get in. The link is live in the Discord. It's only about half full so far.
So get in, become a Ship It Nation member, get into the ship at games this week and have a crack at the prizes. The top prize is $10,000 plus. So hoop, kick it over to you. I'll let you take it over from here for your grand scheme over anything you want to add to what title mention or anything else you see sticking out before we hop into captains. No, good breakdown.
I mean, you look at the Packers running back room and everyone thought it was definitely going to be Marshall Lloyd. And he just has not grabbed that role. And it's it's pretty wide open. And, you know, when we get into the captain conversation, I think it's going to definitely be hard to play any of those guys because. It is probably a hot hand situation. If one of them gets going, they're Likely to kind of stay in there and get some of the carries.
You know, Penix coming back is definitely, again, for me personally, in terms of the Falcons winning football games, I don't think it does much. Like Cooper Rush is not great. I'm not certain Penix is all that much better to be honest, but you know, the stats obviously might say a little bit different, but from a fantasy perspective, We know he's going to be able to get the ball to some of these pass catchers a little bit, specifically Drake London.
And I do think it's a little boost for Bijan. But the line did move, I think, basically like three points when they announced Penix is coming back. So it is a different dynamic. But for me personally, it's going to be probably pretty condensed up top. We'll talk about that when we get there. But, you know, I. Again, for me personally, the pass catchers on the Green Bay side are going to be what I kind of focus in on here today.
All right, we'll start with the captain conversation and I'll stay with you, Hoop. You mentioned a couple of these guys. Obviously, we talked about Bijan already. Title mentioned, you know, the interesting part is his ownership is essentially double. On a lot of these slates so far this season, just kicking it off, we have got really spread out ownership for the showdown captains. This one, not the case, right? You've got Bijan, twenty five plus, most Likely.
And then after that, it starts to separate and even out from there. But give me your thoughts at the captain position. Yeah, I hope it kind of stays like that. I hope Bijan is well above everyone else because if that's the case, it's going to be easy to get overweight on anything else that you really want to do on the slate if you are MMEing or even for people that are hand-building one lineup or five lineups. It's going to be easy.
To make your moves on the slate. I mean, yes, Bijan, if you're building a bunch of lineups, yeah, you're not going to X him out at the captain. He could absolutely nuke this slate or nuke any slate. He's got multiple touchdown upside. He has ten reception upside. Like, that's tough to exclude from your player pool. So I think he's fine. No matter what you're doing today.
But after him, the guys I'm most interested in are for sure the Packers pass catchers for reasons we talked about. There's a team last year, they were mixing in five to six wide receivers every game. They cut that all the way down to like the main three guys this year, Christian Watson, Nade's boy, Matthews Golden, and then Jayden Reed. Well, Jayden Reed is now out So Christian Watson and Golden, I absolutely love up top.
And again, because Bijan is getting so much OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, it has to probably be somewhere around ten percent for those guys. I think Watson could come up a little bit, but Matthews Golden is going to stay in that range, ten, eleven percent. You know, probably twelve percent ownership and easy to get overweight. So I really like him. I really like Tucker Kraft, too. I mean, Tucker Kraft this year just pulling this up really hasn't done shit like what? Two for fifteen, three for sixty five.
I think this is an opportunity for him to have a big game. You can get a lot of catches and get there with a lot of catches and you can get there with multiple touchdowns. I love Tucker Kraft up top when you factor everything in. Ownership and all that. Like those are by far my three favorite captains on the slate, Watson, Golden, Kraft. And I probably want equal exposure to all those guys in that captain spot.
After those guys, I don't really have much interest in the captains. I don't really have a ton of interest in Jordan Love. I'll probably keep Jordan Love in the player pool, but not necessarily like force a certain percent.
And I just think, if he has success, it's Likely that one of those guys has a big game. Now, could could he spread it out to those gentlemen? Absolutely. But to me, I think one of those guys has the big game. So Watson, Golden, Craft, I love. Drake London, definitely going to include him as well.
It's been a rough go so far for him, but you can probably attribute most of that to having Cooper Rush as the quarterback, four for fifty-one, two for twenty-nine. Penix has done a good job of getting him the ball, so I think he has the upside. My Again, Bijan's a different conversation. I'm not even going to include him in my rankings. Definitely fine if you're building one-fifty. Totally get it. But Watson, Golden, Tucker Kraft, Drake London, I want exposure.
I want to be overweight on all four of those guys. And if that means I'm underweight on Bijan, good with that. If that means I'm underweight on Jordan Love, I'm good with that. But those four I absolutely love tonight. And, you know, Tyler Pitts, probably not. Like I get it. You should be LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ up there. I just, I love those four guys that I mentioned.
Yeah, I really like London because if I'm leveraging Bijan in the captain spot when I'm not on Bijan, obviously he's got a big number up top. His ceiling is high. It's all the factors you mentioned. Having Penix back there maybe helps. But just noting it, London. If that ownership number, not to cut you off, but I did want to add on because we talked about it. If it remains around ten percent, that's insane for me. I think it comes up.
But a lot of places are showing him right now, Drake London, right around ten percent. If that's the case, he's an absolute steal on the slate. Yeah, I think it's more than fair. So to me, it's like, even if I don't, again, I'm the one that talks about this probably the most of, you know, anybody just when others are complaining like, well, if he was, you know, in the Discord, you see it. If he was twelve percent, I'd consider it.
But now that he's fourteen, I'm not going to do it. It's like you either want him or you don't. You either think it's happening or you don't either have a portfolio. You don't whatever you want to look at it. Perspective wise, I'm interested in him regardless. I don't know. I get how you could do Penix up top and play London, Pitts, whatever else you want to do. Even Dixon in the flex maybe throws him some passes.
But I feel more comfortable on the other side. And I think others will too. But like you said, it doesn't seem like people are super high on the quarterbacks at captain tonight anyway. I would still prefer Love. I still think there's Watson, Golden, Skyy Moore, who Title mentioned, Tucker Kraft. Somebody made a good point too about the O-line. That could be pretty intriguing tonight as well. And I will say this almost worked the other night. I did post this title in the chat.
I don't know if you saw it, but in the disco, I did. I told you I love that slate. And I had the exact same lineup you won with instead of Kyron. And there's other ways that you could have shaken it. And I think there was actually one higher quorum lineup actually, but that was a three-way chop. And it's like, is it, I don't know if it's very Likely, but I'm saying to me, I like stuff like that tonight.
I could see the same thing with Kraft and Janu. Yes, you could go pay up somewhere else, but it might just end up working out if something like that worked in your favor. I'm not talking about the captain anymore. Just sparked that in my mind when someone mentioned it. So I do like Kraft. I like Golden. I like Love. I like London. Those are kind of the main, and then Bijan, obviously.
So I think that's like kind of the five that I'm thinking about, and I'll kick it over to you, Ty. I'll give your thoughts additionally. Yeah, I see. I have it pretty similar as you guys. The one you didn't mention that I have some interest in and manually going to bump is Caleb Johnson. I think he's a starting running back. Props have him with more rushing attempts than Lloyd, more rushing yards than Lloyd. He's looked better. Lloyd had that bad fumble.
He's very cheap. He's only showing less than two percent at captain at $4,000. Now, when you plug in Caleb Johnson at captain, don't zero out your money and play all the studs. That one point five percent captain or whatever is it still be duped a lot more than you'd expect. But you lose, you leave seven hundred on the table with the Caleb Johnson captain team. I think there's plenty of ways he can get there.
So I think he is very interesting at low ownership, plus two twenty five to score number six on the slate. The one that I have a little less interest in you guys, and I still don't mind them as Tucker Kraft. It's really the main concern of they're down to offensive linemen. I mean, there was a frickin quote that they debated putting Tucker Kraft on the offensive line when the injuries went down.
Like, I am worried that that they're going to keep him in to block more. They talked about the twelve personnel with Jonu and Kraft. Kraft is a phenomenal blocker. Thankfully, the Falcons defense isn't great and they can't get off to the quarterback as much. So I'm hoping this is a matchup that Kraft can get out there and run some more routes. But I am worried if they can't block early that they're going to have an extra protector in.
And that definitely hurts Tucker Kraft's upside. Other than that, yeah, I'm definitely wide receivers on this slate. At ownership, London, Watts, and Golden up top all look great. As far as Bijan... Yeah, he's getting ownership. I mean, I couldn't imagine fading. I still don't even think I'll have under twenty percent at captain. Most of my teams will have Bijan on the slate. He just can get there in so many ways. And I view the Penix upgrade from Cooper Rush is very big.
Again, I don't even think Penix is great. I don't think he's terrible, though. So I guess maybe I'm a little higher on Penix than some. I just think Cooper Rush is really that bad when it's all said and done. And the ability not to just completely stack the box. The game script should be somewhat good for Bijan. I think he can get back to like six plus catches. So Bijan, Golden, Watson, Drake, London, and then I think Caleb Johnson for me.
I'm fine with Jordan Love too. Definitely Love over Penix. I don't know. What does it take for Love to get to the top? Three hundred plus, two touchdowns at two different guys. I'm fine with it. I don't love it though. You don't love it. Jordan, love it. Don't love it. But I think, you know, a lot of the cheaper captains, like the Caleb one makes sense because like you say, $6,000. One nice thing about Caleb and I don't disagree with like your Tucker crafting.
I was kind of saying that just we hadn't got to tight end later yet. But I'm saying like that's the thing where I think John who could be I'll pull it up in a second. But just to note it, the Caleb stuff, I was going to ask you about the props. You already mentioned it. But when you go to those guys. You can kind of like, what's it?
Like thread the needle is the saying I was looking for because you don't need the value plays anymore. But to your point, as long as you don't max out the salary on a two percent on captain, there's $2,000 lineups on every hundred thousand. Yes. But it's like there's going to be a lot of those that are dead right away or like in massive shops that we're probably not going to want to be a part of. So we're not building like that.
If you leave seven hundred to fifteen hundred on the table in those, you're going to be in a different crew already and less dupes and all these opportunities if that was to actually come through and then not need the value plays. If you do something like, you know, again, this could be right. Andrew could be right that this works tonight.
But if you did a John New captain, I'd want to be leaving a lot of money on the table because it's like that lineup just fills itself. You can put Bijan, both quarterbacks, Watson. You can put whatever you want in it, but you're probably going to actually be very similar to everybody else with that one, where a Caleb one might be a little bit easier to get different with. And I do have the quotes, our partnership over at DFOS.com.
If you guys want to check it out, you can use code SHIPIT over there. There's a bunch of different stuff we use it for, takedown, breakdown, whatever, but I like the notes. And it was one day ago on craft. And it said, talk about using Tucker Kraft at the offensive line at one point during week two, after four offensive linemen left the game. And then you talked about Caleb who it's right here from three days ago.
And it says Caleb Johnson could earn more opportunities as his comfort in the offense, uh, Uh, and protection scheme grows. I thought there was some good stuff, you know, I think, you know, start off over time, he rips off. Something like that. So maybe, um, we do see even more Caleb today when it comes down to it, like you said, and the props already thinking it's going to be going that way. So that's, that's interesting as well. All right, I'll let you continue that title.
Take us into any more on the quarterbacks that you want to add in the flex position or just ways you might be using them differently. I know we talked about them up top already. If you're, for example, like, you know, Penix for me, I'll just note it here. And even actually for Love as well, just so much more in the flex. Like then I can say, fine, I can get by with it there. It makes sense.
If I'm putting London up top and it pairs up, that can make sense to me. But, you know, just from quarterbacks as a whole, how are you thinking about using them in the flex? Yeah. And I just want to say for the kill Johnson to again, Marshall Lloyd had a bad fumble to start the fourth quarter.
And sometimes when you see that, like they'll get away from him that game, but they don't want to like completely ruin his confidence, especially with who knows what what's going to go on with Josh Jacobs. So I'm not like convinced Caleb Johnson is just going to take over this role and run with it. It's still seven and a half rushing prop or attempts for Lloyd, ten and a half for Caleb Johnson. But we also have one guy in Lloyd, $7,400.
Caleb Johnson $4,000. If it was flipped, I probably wouldn't really have interest in either. As far as the quarterbacks, I mean, really, whenever I see any quarterback at thirty three percent in the flex, it's hard for me not to have any interest, especially how they're the underdogs. If they are trailing, they're going to have to throw the ball. And he's only $9,000, which isn't breaking the bank by any means. So actually in the flex, I'm panics over Jordan Love.
I can go any Jordan Love team right to Penix and leave $1,000. I think I'm going to be underweight Jordan Love on this slate at his price tag and then other options I prefer around him and ability to leave money. Any Love team can go to London. Any Love team can go to Watson, Golden, Penix, Kraft, you name it. So I think I'm going to be under Jordan Love in the flex. Do you wonder, do you think so? I wonder.
And if you guys think tonight, we'll see a little less OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ on these quarterbacks because of the dart injury the other night, like people nervous about like, well, I'm not going to run because there was like, we were running five ones the other night with dart on the other side. He, he runs the flags. He's able to spread it out. We weren't really sure in love with all these other options. So it's like, let's just do that.
And that's how a lot of people were like, damn, I wish I had a played, Well, this is how it started. I wish I had played Nabers instead of dart. And then wait, he's injured now. He did end up coming back. But I'm just saying that was kind of funny the way it played out that everybody thought they wish they went that route. Maybe tonight we see less of these guys in the flex.
I will note before I go to you, Hoop, on this, enough conversation about it to make it... I will say this, and I don't do it very often, but if there was a slate, and I haven't got to my build yet, so I'm not sure, but if there was a slate for defense or kicker up top tonight, it's one like this could be the case.
If we don't really love both quarterbacks, there's offensive line issues that could break down as they get closer to the end zone, and now it becomes a field goal or whatever. If you think Penix is a statue and you want to go LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ against Bijan in the captain, well, that's going to be with Green Bay defense.
So there's a lot of different ways you could do it tonight where Green Bay or SMAC could be up top, and maybe it's the other side if you have this game going differently and the line movement is in that direction. But I think it's at least somewhat interesting that if there was going to be a slate, Hoop, this could be the one where it would make some sense, or you could see it afterwards and say, oh yeah, should have thought of that.
Yeah. For these quarterbacks, I think the point that Title made is the best. I mean, with Penix, I mean, I kind of shit on them overall, not only as a captain play, but like, you know, thirty three percent quarterback, a guy that's going to touch the ball every single time unless they do like a wildcat or something when the Falcons have the ball, like thirty three percent. Like, I'm definitely in on that in the flex. For me, it's very clear.
No captain for Penix, but definitely in the flex. And I like him quite a bit at that ownership. And then with Jordan Lovely, I mean, all these quarterbacks, it's like, man, it's, you know, these quarterbacks of the team that's supposed to win, like they're going to get fifty, sixty percent and whatever. Like there's no there's nothing crazy to say about he's fine in the flex.
Like if you're playing those teams, you know, Golden in the captain, Tucker Kraft in the captain, like obviously he's going to be great in the flex spot. So. Um, yeah, nothing really to add except, yeah, I agree with the Pax thing. Like definitely interested. Yeah.
Well, I would say like my take on it would be just a little bit extra to add is like something like Bijan is going to be so popular in the captain, but because of the value plays, people will still easily have the money for Penix. But if you do look at a lot of the winning rosters with running backs up top, it's oftentimes at the expense of, of their quarterback. Now Bijan's a little bit different because he can catch passes. He can do all that.
So it could still drag them along, but just noting it, things like that, that you want to think about when you're building out your lineup. Sometimes when people are building that line of like, well, I got the money to upgrade to Penix. I'll just do it. But it's now you just not only upgraded to something that might be less Likely, but you also just spent more money, which also made you dupe more and in the contest.
So it's like, you really can be backing yourself into the corner two or three times over. And so it's not just about like, if you know, everyone like the other night was, oh, I wish I didn't play dart or I didn't have so much. It's like, if you didn't have sixty plus percent dart the other night, you probably played bad. It's just the result of an injury. He's he's an amazing play. The process was good. The result was not. But you can't be mad after the fact.
It's like tonight quarterbacks will show up, but I'd still be thinking about how you're using them in the flex. So I'm going to stay with you. We talked about Bijan. We've had a little bit of a conversation. Title brought up some good points on the Caleb Johnson side of things and Lloyd and Brooks and the dog bark on Chris Brooks. So maybe that's the thing. But Brian Robinson Jr. Jr., just how you're handling, how many you'd play together, different factors.
What do you think here at the running back position? Yeah. So, I mean, just looking at the Packers side, I mean, it appears, I mean, based on the props, based on what we saw, like, yeah, Caleb Johnson probably gets a majority of the work. The OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ is probably going to follow behind him because he's $4,000, right?
He's only $4,000 and he's at a price point where gets in the end zone once and then you're kind of free rolling and he's very, very Likely to be on optimal at that point. You know, we're showing twenty one percent. I think it's not like he's going to be thirty, forty percent owned. So I think he's a great play on this slate. MarShawn Lloyd, you know, was supposed to be the guy. He's $7,400.
I think, you know, we have it around fifteen, sixteen percent. It is a tough click, though, because at seventy four, you got to you got to do more than just something. I always say with those guys that are kind of like $5,000, like At the $5,000 price point, you got it. You got to do something. Well, he's $7,400. He's got to do something plus something else. Like you've got to do more than just something.
It's a tough click, but the ownership is going to be low on him. You know, what does he have to do to be in optimal tonight? Probably a low scoring game where he scores a touchdown and gets like fifty yards, sixty yards, maybe a couple catches. Like, can he do that? Maybe. Chris Brooks, I think, is probably the toughest click of the Packers at $5,400. Got four carries. That was an overtime game.
I don't think he's a very good play on the slate. So just the Packers guys, Caleb, then Marshall, Lloyd and then Chris Brooks for me.
Falcons, like Bijan, what else can you really say? I mean, just unlimited work here if it is a competitive game. Gonna be very popular. Like, there's nothing else to add. So then it's like, how does Brian Robinson Jr. Jr. Fit into the mix with these Packers guys? And like, he's a guy that, you know, has the ability to come in and steal some touchdowns if Bijan rips off a long run and gets down to like the Brian Robinson Jr. Jr.
Has a chance to come in there and steal a touchdown. He's $4,400. So for me personally, just to rank these running backs and I'm not even going to include Bijan just because he's kind of in a league of his own. When talking about these running backs, it's it's Caleb Johnson. It's Brian Robinson Jr. Jr. Just because I think there's some some solid touchdown equity there. It's Marshall Lloyd and then it's Chris Brooks.
So that's how I kind of rank those those four guys after Bijan. What about this? I don't let you take the running back position here, but the first question that popped up here was, would you play more than one Green Bay running back in a lineup, right? Bet lines, build lineups, but, or some people snort them, but yeah, we're definitely lines and lineups are different. Or is it max of one? What are you thinking? More than Likely, I would max one.
If you're playing one hundred fifty teams, I always hesitate to make rules like that. There's a lot of random stuff that has got there and showdown. And that also helps you be pretty unique. But if I'm hand building and just what my brain's telling me, it's mainly the price takes. Like if you're playing two of them, $7,400, $4,000 and $5,400.
Two of them have to probably get a touchdown or one of them has to get a touchdown while the other one is getting sixty yards or catching passes or something. So it feels like you need too much to happen and they're going to rotate quite a bit. So, yeah, one fifty. I'd allow it as far as my breakdown at running back. It's. Yeah, it's Caleb Johnson and Bijan. And after that, it's really tough.
I think Lloyd's one of the worst plays on the slate. I would rather Chris Brooks for sure over Marshall Lloyd and save the $2,000 $7,400. Just a terrible price tag. Just looking at the touchdown prop Lloyd's plus two twenty five Brooks plus three fifty rushing yards, twenty four and a half to fourteen and a half. Like that ten yards is not enough for me to pay $2,000 more. And you're just sacrificing so much in that range. So I think Lloyd's awful.
I do prefer Brian Robinson Jr., though, over Brooks or Marshall Lloyd. Yeah, I mean, he's going to spell Bijan at times. Bijan breaks off a long run or whatever happens. If this game gets out of hand, we saw Brian Robinson Jr. get a lot of work. I don't like Brian Robinson Jr. much, but. He's eleven percent on his $4,400. So it's clearly Bijan, Caleb Johnson, a huge gap. Brian Robinson Jr. gap. Chris Brooks, big gap. MarShawn Lloyd. Yeah, I laughed earlier.
This too, our guy Oracle said, Caleb's price is outrageous on FanDuel. I think Marshall Lloyd's price is outrageous on FanDuel because I have it ranked like you do there. I get like he was supposed to be the guy and all that. That could be true. It's more about the pricing factor. It's $2,000 less on DraftKings for Chris Brooks if I was even going to go there, but it's way less for Caleb. So yeah, Caleb fits in there.
Um, you know, I think the Brian, the interesting part about the two running back thing, it's because both teams work so differently. And because we don't like the Packers is literally, we're talking through it. It's roulette for these three, but I would play B John and captain and Brian Robinson Jr. in flex easily. But on the other side, you're like, well, that costs way more than two Green Bay running backs, but it's, it's a totally different setup there.
So it's not that I won't get to it. Like you said, in portfolio, I don't rule myself on any of that. The fact that they're rotating tells you everything. I actually believe jokes aside, but like the team the other night that I have with Corum in your Kyron spot, I think the next best team that you were sweating was the one that I was, wouldn't have a way to beat was Kyron and Corum together. And Corum over Rams defense. Something like that.
Yeah. And like, I could rip one again. You got to build for that lineup. If you already think like, there's no chance Atlanta does anything tonight. You're building a hand hand building a few lineups. Yeah. You're probably not getting to that, but if you have lineups where it's, you know, five, one Atlanta, or I actually think Atlanta comes through here and that live movement is real.
What's a way to not only get different with Bijan, but to play the backup running back with him. So I think there's a ton of opportunity from something like that perspective and It is harder to try and figure out how it would actually shake out on the Green Bay side. But at price, it's got to be possible if you played Caleb and Chris Brooks for $9,400. But lineup better tell a story.
It has to make some sense if you're doing that. I don't have too much else to add, though, at running back. So title, I'll stick with you and we go to a wide receiver. I mentioned Drake London earlier. Golden and Watson project almost the same time.
Their OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ is very similar, and one guy is $2,000 less. So give me your thoughts at the wide receiver position, both teams. Yeah, just for that alone, like you said, I expect Golden to be higher owned. No Jayden Reed. Like, these guys are locked into every single two wide receivers set. Thankfully, we don't, like who mentioned in the beginning, without Romeo Doubs now and Wicks, it's concentrated. Now without Reed, it's even more. They're very, very strong plays. Ownership's gonna follow. But yeah, it's hard for me to get away from. Other than that, though, on the Packers, then it gets pretty tough because there's three guys, and I do think Skyy Moore is the clear one.
Snap counts did show it. He out-snapped Bo Melton, out-snapped Sturdivant, but Sturdivant and Melton still got fifteen percent of snaps, nine of them, and then when you do look at the prices, Bo Melton twelve hundred, Strudivant's eight hundred, and when you're looking at others in that range, there's nobody.
Charlie Wagner, I guess, whatever, but I'm going to play some Bo Melton and this Sturdivant guy when you do want to play a lot of studs, when you want to leave a little bit of money, when you want to get different at low ownership. They're going to be on the field on some three receiver sets. And I do think Skyy Moore's ownership goes up quite a bit.
So if you're playing any of them over Skyy Moore in a vacuum, you can eliminate a lot of dupes that way. With that being said, though, just watching the games and seeing it, Skyy Moore looks phenomenal. He looks like one of the best players for the Packers. He's going to get some end around. He's a great punt returner. He's fast. He's going to be the one that's in most wide receiver three sets.
So at $2,400, like any Tyler Pitts team at $6,600, You can play Skyy Moore and leave that $4,000 and he can outscore him in a vacuum. So I do think Skyy Moore is a strong play. It just really comes down to how much steam does he get is the big question. If he's projected at twenty five percent in the flex, I think he's a bad play. He's thirteen percent. I think he's a good play.
So obviously, yeah, we play an ownership game on the Falcons side. It's a lot easier. It's clearly Drake London flexing. And then Jahan Dotson is actually probably my favorite way to get different. He played seventy five percent of snap. He's going to be out there a ton and he's $3,000. So at fourteen percent, a guy that's going to be out there a ton. They're expected to be trailing. I like quite a bit of interest there.
And then Zaccheaus, Zachariah Branch, the rookie, he's not been up to speed yet. He's up thirty percent of snaps week one, twenty percent week two. Some of that was in garbage time. It clearly is Zaccheaus as their wide receiver three. So anybody that's going to be on the field with a chance to catch passes for cheap, I have some interest in. So when I need full punts and value, it's going to be at the receiver room on both sides.
Zaccheaus, Dotson, Skyy Moore, Melton, Sturdivant. Yeah, unlike last late on Monday, we hated receivers. I think that's the way to get different on this slate. Yeah, Hoop, I'll bring it to you in just a second. But I will say, to me, it's not like things got any easier. We just went to this rotation at the running back position for Green Bay. All the talk, somebody had it in there before, but it's like, you know, there's tons of talk about Skyy Moore. Bo Melton was out there.
Like you said, we've actually watched him. I know you've had calls on him in the past. We were Bo Melton and... Um, Dontavion Wicks before he moved to Philly now and is doing just fine, by the way, looking good over there. So you got that. And then Sturdivant was the preseason guy that people have been talking about. So, and again, they're all like, to me, Skyy Moore, $2,400, Bow Mountain, twelve, Sturdivant.
Like if I really love the lineup, I may as well just play those three cycle them through. Like it's, who knows if it's going to be who it's going to be down there, but it's not that much easier on the Green Bay side than it is, uh, you know, at the run at the wide receiver than it is the running back hoop. And then the other thing is now it's like taking my head back to the beginning of like that love captain situation.
Cause there's like so many guys that he can, there's actually now it's spread out even more. And especially if the old lines down and he's got a, you know, if it's popular Tucker Kraft, that's helping block. And he's just having to scramble and get out there and throw it up. It reminds me of what Aaron Rogers said a week ago. And I was like, we throw to the open guy. Well, I think all those guys can get pretty open shown, shown capability in the past.
So who, any, any extra thoughts here at the wide receiver position, your thoughts on both sides. Yeah, I agree with a lot of what you guys are saying, but I think you kind of just touched on the key part of all this. Like if you're playing, if you're going to play these guys and you're building Multi-EntryMulti-entry means entering more than one lineup into the same contest. A contest's entry limit, such as 3, 20 or 150, sets how many lineups one user can submit.Set your total spend for the slate first, then divide it into entries. Multi-entry should spread a fixed budget across more outcomes, not raise how much you put at risk.Full explanation ↗, include all of them. Like I, you know, who the hell knows who it's going to be?
Like I, my favorite for sure is probably Skyy Moore. But like Bo Melton, Sturdivant, like, and especially if you're playing a lot of Jordan Love captain teams, like don't, I wouldn't exclude any of these guys. I would mix them in. And the nice thing about looking at these past catchers, the cheap ones is there's enough of them where no one's going to get like a ton of ownership.
Like no one's going to become super popular because there's so many of these cheap options. So many guys, $3,000 and below that we can play anywhere. Title mentioned Dotson. I think Dotson a really good play at $3,000 and on different slate, Dotson might end up being very popular because there's not a, there wouldn't be a ton of cheap options, but we do have a lot of cheap options. We have cheap running backs that we've already talked about.
So all of these guys to me are, are strong options. Dotson more thing in place, the key is Melton and Sturdivant, I think are all in play.
Look at the the main guys, really not too much more to add. I mean, I already said I love Watson and Golden in the captain spot, so that means I love him in the flex. And same can be said about Drake London. And to me, the Drake London price tag at $8,800, uh, is, you know, cheap. I mean, he's usually a $10,000 guy when everything's going right. So, so, you know, to me, I'm going to be playing a lot of these wide receivers.
But again, the cheap ones are so many of them. Ownership is going to get spread out. If you're playing Jordan Love captain teams, I'd make sure to definitely include all these cheap Packers guys for sure. Yeah, I'll take us into tight ends. I don't have anything else to add there, but I'll say that's got me thinking right out of the gates here. And it was like John who Smith.
So this guy is $2,800 to Skyy Moore's $2,400 similar OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, maybe a little less, whatever. But he's basically a double LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ because he's not a cheap wide receiver option, which we just talked about. And Skyy Moore could also get steamed. If you ask anybody out there, search on X, do discords, talk to anyone right now. They'll tell you, and for good reason, probably that $2,400 that Skyy Moore is the best value on the Packers side.
And like title said, on the other side, it's Dotson at $3,000. Well, right between those two prices is John Smith, and he's also leveraged to a popular Tucker Kraft, who we've already established. I kind of like Kraft more for captain. Or not. And that's kind of the way I'm thinking about it. Right. So if you obviously, if you've got love up top, you'd have some craft in there too and whatnot. But I'm just saying people that just are assuming that it's going to be him.
If you had a four to Atlanta or something like that, I don't know if that would be the case. There's so many other options that you could go to. So I think John, who is actually pretty interesting. At $2,800 on this slate to split the difference of those value plays at wide receiver and also leverage Tucker Kraft. Obviously, Kraft pits pits is fine as like a Bring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗ on the other side. Panics could just lean on him a bit.
He gets enough catches. It racks up, especially if it's a lower scoring game or something like that. But title, I'll go to you. Thoughts at tight end. Anything else you want to add? We got Hooper over there, Charlie Woerner on the other side as well. But anything you want to add at tight end? I'm going to play some Woerner. They do run some twelve personnel. He's been on the field over fifty percent of snaps in both or forty nine percent.
His last one a little over for the first one. But I mean, he's showing three percent ownership at six hundred. So if he does outscore more Melton Sturdivant and you can leave the money there, it's like our Raridon. And I saw Raridon got hurt, unfortunately. I hope prayers for him. I'm like, you never get a notification ever. He did, and I just knew everything was going to be okay because prayers. He'll be taken care of. Yeah, for sure.
But, yeah, maybe Charlie Warner's the Raridon from week one. But it's really he's just on the field, and it's hard to really, really make a case for him. Janu, he's fine. But, I mean, like last week, he played a little over twenty percent of snaps, not one target. Against the Vikings, though, he did catch a long ball and almost actually broke it. But he was just wide open. It was a beautifully designed play call. $2,800 bucks.
Eight and a half is his receiving prop, though. It's really just a play to be ContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗. I do prefer those wide receiver cheapies that we talked about. And then, yeah, Kraft and Tyler Pitts. I still don't love Kraft today. I'm going to say when I see twenty eight percent versus twenty percent and Pitts is four hundred cheaper. I'll just say I prefer Tyler Pitts for the discount, for the price and the ownership a little bit.
I think it's more wide receivers and then Caleb Johnson. I'll be playing on the Packers side. Man, Charlie Woerner, this guy is big dude too. Six, five, two-fifty. Yeah. Great blocker. That's why he's out there. Yeah. Well, maybe today they hook him up, man. Let's see. I mean, I would say he's doing about equal to Raridon in the marriage department. So I would say he's doing all right over there. But yeah, this guy looks like he could be the guy tonight.
So I'm interested in some Charlie now that you brought him up. And as a way to get different, he's another guy that just sort of plugs in there because six hundred bucks. You know, it's another thing too earlier. Just knowing I know we do FanDuel later, but Jonu Smith is cheaper. On FanDuel than he is on DraftKings. And he's only $2,800 on DraftKings to start with. So something like that. Another one I saw are new ones.
You got to remember, we do have a rocket ship in the logo. So, you know, Sky more, but also less sky is more could be a possible thing, too, with less is more. So you never know which side you're going to want to end up on there. But I just think Um, if anyone's picking up steam, like him and Dotson are the guys that are picking up steam as values.
So some of these other guys, we make jokes, but there is reason to believe they could plug in and find their way and, and move them around, especially if you've got a portfolio. So I think it's at least somewhat interesting to think about that. Like title, his example earlier was great. Sometimes you see you got two or three percent Charlie Woerner and you'd usually be like, oh, I'm not, what's the point? I only got them on two lineups or three lineups.
Now you might not be good just because title one with it, but it's the point of you're we mentioned him. There's always a possibility. He's in there for a reason. He probably makes your lineup more unique, still has upside. If it ships, it could ship for a lot more. And that's the idea where if you see that you might not want to just take that out of your pool or whatever it might be. So hoop, anything else you want to add here?
Oh, I definitely like Tucker Kraft more than than title just because I mean, without Jayden Reed, they're going to need guys out there catching passes. I know they're banged up on the offensive line, but maybe like that's where Johnny Smith or someone else comes into play. I don't know. I like they're going to need to for me. I think they're going to need Tucker Kraft to catch the ball. So I'm very high on him. I'm good with pits like.
I just feel like if they're passing the ball, man, it's going to be like force-feeding Drake London to kind of get him going today. So, I mean, not saying I don't like Pitts. He's fine, not like super excited. Again, between the two, I know Kraft is higher on, but I think they're going to need him. I'm fine with Johnnie Smith, and I'm not super interested in the Atlanta Jeepies. Charlie Woerner, big family man too.
Wife is kind of funny, said, you know, entering year six with two boys in tow. The Woerner family is ready for football. Clear eyes, full hearts until the wheels fall off. Catch me running twelve personnel in the stands. She knows. Last line, you know, she knows the stuff, man. She's really invested. So you love to see that. But yeah, not too much else to add here. I think it's just, you know, similar to the other positions. You can move these guys around.
But again, your lineups, you want them to tell a story and have them make sense. If you've got a lineup where you were going to play Jonu Smith and you'd rather have Woerner or something on the other side for cheaper and it still fits the stack and whatever you're doing, stuff like that is fine because you're already being aggressive with that lineup in the first place. So I think it's fine from that perspective. Kickers and Ds, I mentioned an earlier title.
I mentioned like, even if there was going to be a captain night for it, I'm just thinking about like O-line breakdowns, things like that. But any thoughts at the kickers and defenses here that stand out to you? One thing Skyy Moore is a punt returner, electric one, pairing him with the Packers defense for the double dip. Again, it's not something you have to do, but if Penix coming out first game in a long time, yeah, people always say it. It is a legit, like a Shaheed.
I only say it when I think these guys are actually could break something once in a while, but it's always a stretch. There's no doubt. I do think Packers defense and Falcons, though, it's a forty two and a half spread or spread. Wow, that'd be crazy. It's college football. Forty two and a half total. Penix first game back in a while, probably limited. Could be a statue like his movement. So Packers defense makes sense there.
And then, yeah, this Packers offensive line has been terrible. $3,400 is cheap for the Falcons defense. Any Tyler Pitts team, Kraft, Smack, Folk, you drop down to Falcons D, you can leave some money there. Kickers, I'm fine with it. To be honest, I'll probably be overweight at at least three of these four guys is my thought process. But he's been in the CFB streets. You can tell. Oh, yeah. Half point spread. You see it. NFL too often, my friend.
But yeah, college football, most certainly and more. So, yeah, I think you broke it down good. I guess, you know, it's how you guys see the game going. I think, again, if you're You're looking for a way to get different with Bijan up top and not super different. People will pair it, but obviously putting it with the Falcons D or with Nick Folk or something like that, you can get different that way.
Leave some money or get the guys that you actually want on the other side because most wouldn't put Jordan Love in there. There is something to be said too when a team spreads it out as much as they do or much as they could on this slate that you could play Falcons D against Love. In this, in the flex, no problem. I mean, not like that's your big revelation.
I'm just saying it's, I don't think people will hand click that in, but it's really more of a possibility when like Love could control a lot of the action and it might be each running back gets a little something. The receivers are spread out some, you just don't see it all condensed on one guy. So he could still be needed. And obviously if Penix struggles on the other side and it's, you know, you already got Bijan.
I just gave you the example, Bijan captain, Atlanta D, Jordan Love. That could be a thing tonight and you fill the rest out, but it's just a setup where that could work and he could still outscore Penix, even with the D taking advantage a little bit in a build like that. So yeah, I think it's interesting. Trace Mack with that name, got to put him in some lineups for sure tonight. Definitely excited to see how that shakes out.
But Hoop, anything else you want to add at kicker and defense here? Yeah, I think, you know, I usually aren't – I'm usually not super excited about defenses, but I think you can definitely make the case for both tonight for the reasons that you guys mentioned. You know, Packers going at the Penix and then the Falcons going up against this poor offensive line. So, good with both. And then, you know, we already talked about our guy Smack. Let's see.
I know it's only two weeks in, but before we totally – Stroke this. Ooh, ten and a half average. Oh, two for two. Oh, yeah. We're in on eight fantasy points. Thirteen. He could have had eleven, too. They took points off the board against the Vikings week one. That's great information. That's actually really good information. So, yeah, definitely in on smack. And then who do you got? Folk on the other side? Yeah.
But the smack guy, something tells me he's going to put the smack down on the slate tonight. So I'm in on smack. Trey Smack, man. This guy, two-sixteenth overall draft pick. So I got him in the sixth round. In, man. In. In. All right. First career field goal was a fifty nine yard bomb. Just no problem whatsoever. So, yeah, maybe maybe tonight's the night for smack to, like you said, lay the smack down. That could be a thing. Trey Day. Right.
Trey Smack. We could see it. So, yeah, I think title always brings us up. And I think it's more, you know, a better way to look at it, I guess, is like from this perspective is just the Falcons. He is going way overlooked to the other stuff. Like it's very clear the Packers deal against panics. Well, of course, the Carolina Panthers just took down this team and stopped Bijan and Atlanta. But like title said, it was also rush. So you got to remember that.
And then second, it's they're the favorite at home and you see all that. But the only thing they really do is LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ Bijan OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ because most people aren't going to have that where Bijan's in the captain and, you know, Packers are in the flex or something, or Packers in the captain and don't play Bijan, or whatever it might be.
But the Falcons D could be the spot here tonight and they would pair well with Bijan if you have this flipping the other way. So I think that's the more intriguing because they're the team. They're the one of the four out of the two kickers and two defenses that is most going overlooked. People play kickers, people play two kickers and play one from either side for a lower scoring game, all these factors with the total.
But I do think it's somewhat interesting that the Falcons are just the one that's completely overlooked here at $3,400 in the flex. So definitely makes a ton of sense.
Um, Hoop, on FanDuel, we talked about it a little bit already. Um, I'll let you take it away and see what you see there. But there is some interesting things, like we talked about with, you know, Marshall Lloyd being way up. John Who Smith is cheaper on FanDuel than DraftKings. You know, Tucker Kraft is up. That seems normal. But what do you see over there? Yeah, there's definitely some pricing differences for sure.
Even like Drake London, where he's like $8,800 on DK is all the way up to $11,400 on FanDuel, where, you know, wide receivers and pass catchers already kind of penalized with the scoring over there on FanDuel. Christian Watson way up there, ten point $8,000 on FanDuel. And then Pennix, where he's going to benefit more from FanDuel scoring is only. Ten point $2,000. So there are some interesting pricing things at the top and then you immediately see Marshall at $9,400.
You know, title made the case for not really playing them on on DK at seventy four. The dude's ninety four on FanDuel. He's got it. He's got to compete with those those studs up top. I just can't. I don't even know how you click that. Click that name tonight. Caleb Johnson, $4,000 on DK $7,200 on FanDuel again.
Can make the case, but like at seventy two, he's got to do something, and he's got to beat the he's got to beat the kickers. He's got to beat the defenses, most Likely. He's right there with Tyler Pitts at, you know, $7,600. Matthew Golden eighty two. So at seventy two, Caleb Johnson is gonna have to show up in a in a pretty big way. Uh, go down to the cheapies. Dotson, fifty six.
Again, that's kind of a price where you got to you got to do something more than a couple of catches at fifty six. So not a great play there. Chris Brooks, fifty two. So I'd say the value. Is much more difficult on FanDuel because those guys are not all the way down at the bottom. They're priced where they still probably have to do something here.
So I guess it is a little bit different dynamic when it comes to roster construction because of these pricing differences.
And I think what you're going to see is these kickers for sure, at Tracy, our guy Smack is $6,800. He's gonna he's gonna be owned quite a bit. And then Nick Full, sixty two. Like, the kickers are, you know, the best cheap plays on the slate. So I think those guys are gonna get quite a bit more OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ on on FanDuel opposed to DK, um, just because the cheap guys are just not that much cheaper. So, uh, yeah, interesting dynamic, I'd say, on FanDuel. Yeah, Title, I don't know if you saw it.
I might play a little more on FanDuel tonight. I kind of like this pricing, how it sets up over there. Like somebody said it too in the chat I posted, I think it was Oracle, said like, what was it he just had? Golden is cheaper than Kraft. I know it's only slightly, but some of these prices are so close and some of them just go skyrocket up.
And then also to me, the most enticing thing and why I said that off the top, why I kind of like it over there tonight is, I saw it's a hundred cap top, but also, Bijan just gets even more ownership over there. Obviously it fits him quite well. And I get that, but I'm just saying, it's like that leaves an even bigger Delta that you can get on. So you could play thirty five Bijan match the field, play all your lineups accordingly.
And in the way that I mean, we're like, you'd have a chance to ship or like low dupes, whatever, but you'd still be able to get overweight on London and, Love, Watson, Golden, whatever you like, really. Caleb Johnson might be one or two percent over there. And again, it probably fits him better. What if it is a lower scoring game and you have the pricing to fill it out with? So yeah, I have some interest in the FanDuel stuff more tonight than usual.
I think that's interesting. FanDuel is definitely tough. Bijan might be sixty percent plus at MVP. But yeah, the main thing is the value. You guys touch on like the gold and price and London and Watson. There's definitely differences in prices, but the value is absolutely terrible. Like the the guy that's going to be on the field that's the cheapest is Charlie Wagner at one point. A.K. John, who then at two, four, Bow Mountain, three strut of in three, four is the key is for two.
Skyy Moore, four, eight, like these are the guys that I think I'm going to have to play a decent bit of. And I don't even hate the idea if you want to like completely punt full $1,000 with someone that you don't even think is going to touch the field. But as long as you don't leave eight hundred, I mean, Charlie Wagner can obviously always blank and so can John. So I guess you could still play Redmond and leave. Eight hundred plus.
I'd rather probably leave less than eight hundred, though, but play someone that's pretty much almost not projected stone minimum, only leave four hundred dollars. And then maybe you just the studs do enough. And these guys are overpriced where you just jam all of them in. You take a zero and that guy is going to be less than one percent anyway. So it gets you on a different roster construction while only playing five guys.
I do think that is in play today on Fanda with how tight or how tight the pricing is. These guys are overpriced. Yeah, agreed. And that's, again, I usually like that. So that's what I'm thinking. But yeah, I would still try and find the eight hundred bucks for Woerner so we don't take a full on zero. I think this guy's going to have a big night after we talked him up, maybe. So I got to cheer for our guy, Charlie, over there.
By the way, Charlie, speaking of Charlie, the Chocolate Factory, do you guys see on Netflix? There's a new...
Wonka series talking about Golden tickets, just like we got Ship It Games with the Golden tickets. So I thought that was, uh, somewhat interesting too. We we copied them, and now they're coming back at us. They're coming back, bringing back the Netflix Golden tickets. So, uh, you know, everyone's trying new things these days. It's good. We're back at it. Uh, Title, any final thoughts from you before we get out of here? No, I mean, I'm always excited for any NFL game with $500,000 or whatever we got up top.
And then for it to be my Packers makes it even more fun. So, yeah, let's get to the top of the leaderboards. Hopefully your team does better than my team did last Thursday. Hey, my team could lose by fifty. If I'm at the top, I could care less. So as long as we're up there. If those don't know that by now, Ravens just got beat by the Saints in Baltimore. Unless I play him in Survivor, which I'm already pretty much dusting.
Unless I go that route, then I want him to win. Oh, man. By the way, is that $1,000 getting any action? Didn't they Bring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗ to $1,000 on splash? No, I should look because I'm very low. Two thirty four out of eleven hundred. They always like bringing it to the last minute, but that is at least somewhat interesting. Yeah, a lot of stuff going on there. A lot of smack talk on the Survivor Streets out there.
A lot of new experts in the streets as well, Hoop. Man, do not get me started on that. We got five minutes left. Do you have any rants at all? You don't want me to. It's just so funny. I'll take the bait. I'll take the bait. It's just so funny how these guys, these guys, they're so shameless.
They go from, like, being experts in one thing, and then they just go on to the next, to the next, to the next, and just pretend like they're experts in everything. They start out with DFS, and then they go to sports betting, and then they go to showdown slates, and then they go to – And then they go to prediction markets and now they're going, now they're survivor experts and they've never played. And they're experts in survivors.
Like our guy Sheets, like if you want survivor content, you know, watch Sheets and he's on a different, he's on a channel that's not associated with us anymore. Like what he does, he gives the best free content when it comes to the survivor stuff, going to give credit where credit's due. You don't need to pay somebody for survivor content. Like he gives the best. He's on Twitter. He does it on a different YouTube station. Like go there and watch Sheets.
Like he has done this for years and understand that these guys are hopping into the waters for the first time ever and pretending like they're experts. Like, man, it's, it drives me insane. The, the hoop hate bait. We got them today. It doesn't take much. I'm like, I mean, I'm just, yeah, I took the bait instantly. I love it. Hey, also love this. Shout out to our man Nguyen's new dad over there. We saw it. Baby girl posted it in the community.
So love to see that. Nguyen's has been with us all the way. So congrats to you, man. And hopefully, yeah, you get the little dad son run, right? What they used to call it? Yeah, the baby run good. Yeah. But there's like a thing, like, uh, I forget who it was used to call it the father narrative, but it wasn't that, but it sounded funny when it was said that way. I think it was like CSU.
I think CSU is the man, but it was funny. Is it the father narrative? But it's what do they call it? Like a dad swag or like babies, baby swag. Baby swag. The baby swag. Yeah, get the baby swag going. That's what you got to call it. Let's go, Newens. Get a little baby swag your way. If you guys want to check out Ship It Nation, join the community. Go to shipitnation.com. You can check out Ship It Games. It's right at the top.
You just click that. It will take you in. There's not much to understand. Every all access member of any kind or NFL only member of any kind, which there is monthly plans. You can just go down to join the nation, single sport NFL. You can join monthly annual, save a bunch of money that way. SaberSim, not SaberSim, really do whatever you want. If you do, if you do join with SaberSim, you get into the Winner's Circle program. So you can check all this out.
Actually, you know what I want to see while we're here end of the show. I don't even care, but I know we edited this some, so you can start seeing like who won, uh, By what? Like, oh, you want to see the NFL screenshots? Want to see the NBA, PGA, MLB? You can do all that. But is this loaded? Yeah, it is. Okay. This is crazy, by the way. Our guy behind the scenes.
Now, if you're a Ship It Nation member and you go to shows on the site, this is nuts. There is actually every show, the upcoming live streams are there. The latest streams are all there. You're like, oh, I missed Takedown Breakdown this week. Let me go check it out. Not only can you watch it there or on YouTube or any podcast feed that you want, the timestamps are all there. I just want to find out about Rio's second place. Congrats again to our guy Hebrew Cheat.
I just want to hear the story about his $100,000 shipper. Okay. You want to get our free fifty nine page PDF PFS mastermind blueprint guide. Put your email in. Subscribe. It's yours. Just go to the site. It's free shows. Click it. But then you can see like most mentioned. Okay. You can see Schultz, C.D. Lamb. Like what did people say about them? It's all here.
And then it takes it all and it puts it into where it was said and a full explanation glossary. Let's see if this will open. And then it's got it all built in here. You can search the glossary by any terms, shows that we used it on, anything you want to know about DFS. So we've always talked about education and process and doing as much as we can to help you guys out.
But this is for all members, but this is also free to the entire general public. So if you're not a Ship It Nation member and you want to dig in to what we've been up to, the shows page has a ton of stuff going on that you can find out. And it's all... I think it's back to the beginning of August already. And it's going to be everything moving forward. So... Pretty sweet. Check it out if you guys want.
Anything else you guys need, hit us up in the Discord. That's going to do it for this one, guys. For Title, for Hoop, for myself, ToeTag, and Tambo, good luck in your contest tonight. Let's ship it!
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