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CFB DFS – WEEK 5 | Saturday Slate | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Aired Thu Oct 1, 2026 Hosts Bill Runtime 1:00:18 Chapters 14 Views 1,265

From the archive. This breakdown is for the Saturday, October 3 CFB slate. Salaries, weather and picks were for that day.

The Short Version

Bill and Ian break down the twelve-game Saturday slate, with no automatic quarterback choice and little obvious value below $4,000. Alabama-Mississippi State stands out for scoring potential, with both quarterbacks viable in cash and single entry and Anthony Evans III and Ryan Coleman-Williams strong starting pieces. Paying for Jadan Baugh ($9,800) or Jeremiah Smith ($9,400) is defensible, but cheaper dual-threat quarterbacks such as Bryce Underwood and Colton Joseph help make those builds work.

Ousmane Kromah ($5,900) stands out as an affordable workhorse, while Aiden Flora offers rushing and receiving volume against West Virginia. Patrick Overmyer and Rico Flores Jr. provide receiver savings. Chauncey Bowens becomes a leading cash option if Nate Frazier sits. Houston and Wisconsin offer stack options, and Virginia-Florida State supplies affordable combinations. Kentucky-South Carolina is another late stacking option, though the show cautions against overloading its uncertain backfields.

FadesAlabama running backsMichigan running backsMichigan StateVanderbilt running backsVirginia running backs

Plays Mentioned

PlayCallThe TakeAt
Alabama running backs FADE The backfield is being avoided this slate because no clear option has emerged and Daniel Hill's volume remains low. 3:27
The $7,100 back is on the radar after 31 touches against Missouri, with his production overshadowed by his quarterback. 4:14
CORE A leading receiver with underneath targets, deep opportunities and touchdown production who can be a starting point for lineups. 6:50
CORE A receiver to start lineups with alongside Evans in an appealing Alabama-Mississippi State game. 6:50
VALUE At $4,300, the steady receiving involvement makes him one of the stronger inexpensive pass catchers on the slate. 9:13
Conner Weigman with Amare Thomas or Patrick Overmyer IN PLAY Houston offers a sneaky stack with a team total in the thirties and a clear concentration of receiving opportunities. 11:15
ONE-OFF A dependable Houston receiver at $6,600 who fits the receiver one-off approach as well as stacks. 11:15
His rushing supports the floor, but the passing limitations and need for multiple touchdowns complicate the $8,500 salary. 12:42
The workload remains strong, but Hawkins taking rushing touchdowns makes the roughly $9,000 salary harder to justify. 14:18
CORE A plug-and-play running back on volume, with receiving work supporting the workload against a poorly graded West Virginia run defense. 15:58
Jaylen Raynor with Iowa State pass catchers LEVERAGE The passing game offers a way to get different while keeping exposure to an affordable Iowa State offense. 16:17
CJ Carr with Micah Gilbert LEVERAGE The higher prices could reduce ownership on this quarterback-receiver pairing, with Notre Dame combinations primarily appealing for multiple lineups. 17:46
VALUE At $6,900, his rushing ability offers an affordable dual-threat quarterback option against Minnesota. 20:57
Bryce Underwood with JJ Buchanan and Andrew Marsh IN PLAY The quarterback and concentrated receiving group are in consideration despite the lower team total, with Marsh's injury status requiring attention. 21:54
Michigan running backs FADE The backfield is being avoided until someone claims meaningful volume, particularly with Underwood taking rushing opportunities. 21:54
The Wisconsin running game is appealing, with substantially more interest in Dupree if Abu Sama III cannot play. 26:28
Colton Joseph with Wisconsin pass catchers IN PLAY Wisconsin stacks are appealing for mass multi-entry, with inexpensive receiving options against a depleted Michigan State defense. 27:27
Michigan State FADE The final position is to avoid the offense because the numbers do not support it, despite earlier consideration of the tight end. 27:57
Vanderbilt running backs FADE The cheap salaries do not overcome the matchup, and the possible receiving-production argument is explicitly rejected. 30:17
VALUE At $6,500, he becomes a standout cash play if Nate Frazier is out and the backfield workload becomes clearer. 32:19
His very low price and team-leading routes are noted, but two catches on nine targets prevent an actual recommendation. 32:19
ONE-OFF At $4,400, his increasing workload and emerging lead-receiver role make him a salary-saving receiver piece. 33:10
His heavy rushing workload and a few receiving opportunities fit the desired volume profile, without a stronger lineup commitment. 34:59
At $4,600, the deep-target role becomes more interesting if Vernell Brown III is out, though the opportunities are high risk. 38:59
PAY UP The $9,800 salary is defensible for a heavily fed back with eleven touchdowns in four games and consistent production. 39:23
LEVERAGE A mass multi-entry alternative expected to draw little ownership, with Florida running enough to support work behind Baugh. 40:04
The $8,000 price looks slightly low for his passing and rushing ability, without a specific lineup-building commitment. 40:48
The dual-threat ability and Tennessee's roughly thirty-point team total make his price interesting despite last week's sack-heavy rushing line. 41:40
The lead Tennessee back is the preferred cash and single-entry option, although the split with Daune Morris creates concern. 42:48
The Tennessee timeshare makes him viable for mass multi-entry, while Bishop is preferred in cash and single entry. 42:48
VALUE The $1,300 discount from Mike Matthews is appealing as his involvement rises and his route count already exceeds Matthews'. 43:11
Virginia running backs FADE A potential four-player rotation leaves the backfield off the list until a clear lead option emerges. 45:43
VALUE At $4,500, his return from injury and nine catches on ten targets last week make him an appealing inexpensive receiver. 45:57
Virginia-Florida State game stack IN PLAY Affordable receivers and quarterbacks make a full game stack worth considering despite a lower total than some other games. 47:38
VALUE At $5,900, the workhorse role and injuries behind him make him highly affordable for the expected volume. 48:57
PAY UP The $9,400 price is worth considering for his demonstrated ceiling, and Iowa's secondary does not remove him from consideration. 50:55
ONE-OFF An Iowa pass catcher to consider only as an individual piece, with targets still present despite last week's lack of catches. 51:43
ONE-OFF An Iowa receiver to consider only as a one-off rather than part of a broader Iowa build. 51:43
ONE-OFF An inexpensive Kentucky receiving piece with big-play potential who can also fit a stack. 54:08
ONE-OFF A target-heavy Kentucky tight end who can be used as a cheap individual piece or with his quarterback. 54:08
LaNorris Sellers with South Carolina pass catchers and a Kentucky running back IN PLAY A late game stack is viable with a Kentucky running back coming back, but the split backfields and unreliable receivers make it risky. 56:07
ONE-OFF A preferred piece of the late game with both rushing and receiving production, remaining viable across formats at $7,200. 56:52
ONE-OFF A cheap South Carolina receiver worth a shot for his explosive potential, although drops and catch rate make him unreliable. 56:52
ONE-OFF Another inexpensive South Carolina receiver to take shots on, with strong target volume but poor catch efficiency. 56:52

DFS Terms Used on This Show

One-OffIn CFB DFS, a one-off is a player you roster outside a stack, often a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. A quarterback selected without his pass catchers can also function as a standalone play.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 6:50 Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 7:13 OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 8:12 Target ShareIn college football, target share is the same percentage of team targets, but it is often far more concentrated: many offenses send a third or more of their throws to one receiver or tight end.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 10:32 Bring-BackIn college football, a bring-back is usually a pass catcher or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 11:15 LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 16:40 Roster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 29:31 Spending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 39:23 Game StackIn college football, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 47:38

Full Transcript

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0:09

Let's go. Clear for lift off.

0:41

Week five is here and Minnesota's on a slate with big noon Saturday coming to the twin cities what's going on everybody welcome to the Ship It Nation college football preview show my name is Bill put a dollar in front of it you'll find me on Twitter slash x and with me tonight today I have my uh good friend and colleague at Ship It Nation ian I am Robbins what's going on and we got both of our teams on the slate this yeah Both riding high after massive wins last week.

1:09

Another good Saturday. We're well into the thick of things at college football here. Conference play, hit in October. Really, really exciting time, you know, starting to get a picture about some of these teams. It's the best time, best time of year for it right here. Absolutely. More data. It's more data is what we love. Our good friend Kenny is not with us today. He was very bitter that Nebraska wasn't included on the slate.

1:33

I think that's the reason he couldn't make it. No, but we are pre-recording, obviously. This is not live. I'm on the road. Kenny's unable to make it. We had to switch some things around, but we're going to be here regardless. And before we get into college football, I do want to talk about Ship It Nation, as we do every week, you know, I've talked about the NFL-only package all week, one of the best deals in all of fantasy sports.

1:54

I've talked about the Ship It Games, one of the coolest things that only Ship It Nation is doing. You can just get college football if you want it, less than a dollar a day. Or, hey, look at the border. Look up there, and I think a little that way. I don't know if this mirrors or not. Five days for XIX bucks with code SHIPXIX if you just want to try us out. But NHL season has started. It sneaks up on me every year.

2:16

They've added two games this year, but we added a new line combos page to help along with our Slate Station, along with the stone, along with the two point out just all of the information you need. And I think we've already had some big winners. It's been like three days of NHL and the community is already raving about this page. It's going to flag the lines in question.

2:36

I don't know how much crossover we have between college football fans and hockey fans when it comes to DFS. But as a nerd, I love this stuff. I love having all of this information in one place. So if you've been waiting for winter sports, they are officially here and we have you covered at Ship It Nation. But let's get to the reason we are all here today. College football week five.

2:58

Starting off with a banger, Alabama, Mississippi State, a clash of SEC teams that I think have gotten better as the season's gone on. Keelan Russell is one of those guys. Seems like he's finding his groove. And Mississippi State's defenses look good against non-mobile quarterbacks. Lenora Sellers had a solid showing. And Russell has the upside, both yards and touchdowns. But his passing has looked better, too, with a thirty three point team total, even at $8,800. The upside is there.

3:27

I'm personally not touching this running back room until somebody emerges. It seems like Daniels Hill is the number one, but it's such a low volume. But the wide receivers, Ryan Coleman-Williams had a monster game last week. He did have two touchdowns, but he was also two yards away from the hundred-yard bonus. And then Lazier Brooks had an eight-catch, hundred-yard game a couple weeks ago, so the volume's been there for him.

3:51

On a slate that's starved for value, Rico Scott doesn't even look bad at $3,900 eleven targets over the last two games. And then the Mississippi State side, they've just been completely locked in all year. And now we're getting a little discount on Super Camario. Absolute stud all year. Alabama allowed Ashton Daniels to throw for three hundred and seventy seven yards. I don't think I need to elaborate much more on that.

4:14

Fluff Bothwell, the spotlight's been on Taylor all year, but he's just casually on pace for a twelve hundred yard nine touchdown season. Nobody knows about it because everybody's talking about Camario. And one other thing, he had thirty one touches against Missouri between rushes and receptions. And Matt Fuller had a five reception game and ran for six a carry against this team. So I. Fluff is on my radar at $7,100.

4:41

And then in the wide receiver room, you could argue this has been the best collective of pass catchers like as a whole with Anthony Evans, still sub K. He's the number one. But you got San Frisco, Magee, who's got McGee, who's got the touchdown upside. Marquise Johnson and Zion Reagans, both on the field a ton and provide a little bit of value. But I mean, I a long winded way of saying this game is is super juicy from a DFS perspective right off the bat.

5:10

One of our highest totals on the slate, no doubt about it. Two quarterbacks that really are star-studded quarterbacks. Guys who are very well much in the mix to be in the Heisman Trophy finalist ceremony in New York at the end of the season. Keelan Russell maybe has been You know, one of the top few quarterbacks, top few players in the league last few weeks, in the nation last few weeks, really. His upside is massive. He's a true dual threat.

5:35

His passing game, you know, was a little bit behind the running game, but that's caught up a little bit. You mentioned Ryan Coleman-Williams. He had two touchdowns and ninety-eight yards. Most of that damage was done in the first half when they ran up the score. You know, he's really been coming on. Keep in mind his freshman year, he was side by side with Jeremiah Smith coming out and he struggled. Certainly hasn't not not nearly the same caliber player, but he's got some massive pedigree.

6:00

Now, Keelan Russell doing his thing. Don't definitely have some upside there. So definitely interesting side to take note of there on the road with the Cowbells getting loud Mississippi State just find ways to win as they do find ways with Super Camario man. Does anybody throw a better deep ball than him?

6:21

He's been good this year man he's you know he hasn't been running the same way he was you know he put up a monster running game against your boys up in in Minnesota but I think defenses in the conference especially trying to contain him a little bit but he's just been airing it out and making that known but you mentioned fluff uh really really solid play solid floor solid upside kind of guy anthony evans this guy wanted to single out here anthony evans has just been one of the outside of Jeremiah Smith, one of the best receivers in the country.

6:50

We talk about Super Mario. Anthony Evans has been the number one guy. They throw it to him underneath. They throw it to him deep. He makes catches. He makes run after catches. He's tough. He gets touchdowns. Evans is having an amazing year on the heels of the passing attack of Mario Taylor. And this game just screams everything for me. One-OffIn CFB DFS, a one-off is a player you roster outside a stack, often a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. A quarterback selected without his pass catchers can also function as a standalone play.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗ guys. I think you can see your rooms. Evans and Coleman, you can start your lineups there.

7:13

I think both quarterbacks are massively in play for Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ and cash. I think the floor and upside is there for both guys. Pretty fairly priced at $1,000. It's a pretty fairly priced slate, as you alluded to. Definitely want to find a way to get some pieces of this game in here. Really exciting game. Really good game. Mississippi State wins this game. Look out. That hype train will be massive for Kamari Taylor.

7:35

Yeah, and there's already been talk in our Discord group about Mississippi State handing Texas their first loss of the season. Mississippi State and Florida are both in that conversation right now, right? Yeah. We'll get to Florida later. Yeah, definitely a great game to start off. Not as good of a game. We're going to drop off a little bit. UCF at Houston. UCF is a big underdog on the road. Keywon Jenkins, I think, is on the report, but it's probable. I don't know if we care.

8:05

I don't know. I don't know if I can touch this UCF side. Duke Watson is probably two points.

8:12

Too high priced and then these wide receivers Dylan Wade's on the report but nobody's really emerged as the wide receiver one we thought it would be dairy then it looked like it was wade and Charles um there's twenty points here so if you can find them more power to you you're gonna get a huge OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ discount on most of these guys on the Houston side connor wigman uh $8,400 it seems like he should be more expensive we know what he does he he can throw it he can run it man like Texas A&M could really use a quarterback like him.

8:41

Explain that joke. Yeah. I mean, college football fans know. I actually got to give credit to Kenny for that one. Our good friend Hamwich brought it up and just, yeah. Well, A&M is not on the slate. We can talk about them another time, but Hughes and Sanford kind of own this backfield. We can see both get double digit carries. We can see both hit the hundred yard bonus. Like it's just, Pick which one you want if you want to play this backfield.

9:13

On a twelve game slate, it's tough to play both. But I think you can. I'm OK with either one. And then the wide receivers, same sort of thing. Same song and dance week after week. Amari Thomas is the stud. Patrick Overmyer gets a ton of looks and is $4,300. Maybe the one of the best value wide receivers on the slate. And then Trent Walker had a decent game last week. But it seems like he and Kobe Young are like in that.

9:38

Three a three B in terms of pass catchers. So, uh, if I don't mind taking some shots on Kobe young either, uh, but how, how are you looking at this UCF Houston game? Yeah. UCF just keeps finding its way on the slate here. Um, I'm talking about earlier that earlier, but, um, they've kind of had a weird win last week, uh, against TCU and they've kind of slogged it up against two chalkier opponents the last few weeks against Pitt and TCU.

10:05

So, uh, Some were weather-wise, some were pace-wise, but they're just kind of a weird team this year. They've been finding ways to win, but I'm going to focus in on the Houston side because they're a really good squad. And Mario Thomas has been a stud wide receiver for a year and a half now. Just that same kind of deal as Evans. He's been one of the better receivers. He's very dependable. He's a known quantity.

10:32

And at six, six, he's just, you know, fairly priced in there as a guy that you could definitely play. You mentioned over Meyer tight end coming over from UT, UTSA. And it was always a solid play. He's really a player. He's been increasing his Target ShareIn college football, target share is the same percentage of team targets, but it is often far more concentrated: many offenses send a third or more of their throws to one receiver or tight end.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Full explanation ↗. He's been increasing his role. Definitely the number two guy there for Conner Weigman.

10:52

I wish we had some clarity at the running back room, but it seems to be a pretty good split there because they both have some decent high upside. But just hard to trust one of them in a One-OffIn CFB DFS, a one-off is a player you roster outside a stack, often a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. A quarterback selected without his pass catchers can also function as a standalone play.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗ situation with with the split. You know, one could go off, one not. Who wants to make that call? Well, he does have a pretty high upside, though. I think he's got a pretty high floor, pretty solid upside there. Team totals in the thirties.

11:15

We know where his target share is going to go. Pretty interesting play. One-off guys. Definitely in the receiver room. I think it's a pretty sneaky stack there if you want to get a little creative with it. All the numbers scream pretty good environment there for Houston. Yeah, and with a team total where they're at, like I said, if you can find the right Bring-BackIn college football, a bring-back is usually a pass catcher or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Full explanation ↗ on UCF, you're probably going to be on an island or close to it.

11:43

So I think The Houston side looks really good this week, though, with that team total. Now on to a Big Twelve game that, man, I don't know if it's going to get overlooked, but I think this has some sneaky good upside, too. West Virginia at Iowa State. West Virginia is such a weird team to attack for DFS because you see Cam Cook and you think workhorse. You think he's going to get twenty five carries upside of two hundred yards, three touchdowns like.

12:13

That's normal Cam Cook that we think of. And the workload is still there. However, there's this guy named Michael Hawkins playing quarterback. Who's got about six hundred and forty rushing touchdowns on the season this year already. I think I don't know. It's a lot. Yeah, we we talked a lot about Hawkins earlier and what his upside is, because if Cam Cook gets half of those touchdowns inside the ten yard line, We're not talking about Michael Hawkins at $8,500.

12:42

We're probably talking about Michael Hawkins at $7,500. So it's going to come down to a decision. What you think is upside is I'm not going to blame you for playing him this week. But you're definitely not playing him for his arm. If you're going to if you're going to stack him with somebody, you're probably stacking him with Cam Cook. It just gets expensive. DJ Epps is a target leader, but it's nothing that that's going to jump off the paper at you.

13:02

And then Iowa State, Jalen Raynor. Threw the ball forty times last week, which is twenty one more times more than he's thrown in any other game this season. So if you do think he's going to pass more, $6,600 is a really nice price. I don't know if it's going to be necessary like it was against Utah. But then Aiden Flora, man, at $6,300, he's probably underpriced. We called him CMAC two point oh last week.

13:27

He definitely looked like he was going to get the volume there. But our grades have West Virginia at an F in run defense. Even if they do throw the ball more, he had five catches on seven at targets last week. He's safe, whether they run the ball or pass the ball. So he's at $6,300. He just seems like a stellar play. And then the wide receivers, again, it it really depends on what this team is going to do.

13:51

If they throw more, Amari Hayes had nine targets against Utah over. He had seven targets and a touchdown. But I really like Flora and, you know, I like the run games in both of these For both of these teams. Yeah, you know, I think when you look at the West Virginia side, Rich Rod has certainly installed his offense in there with Hawkins and Camp Hook. And Camp Hook is, you know, in that $9,000 range as a skill guy. He's in some pretty elite company there.

14:18

And he really needs to hit some upside if he's going to be able to cash that in. Hawkins, that's the trouble when you have a rushing quarterback like you do with Hawkins because the quarterback's the guy that starts with the ball. So if he's the first one to take it, he's going to get the first line to the end zone, which has happened this year.

14:37

I think we saw kind of his typical game that we're going to see last week on the ninth slate against Oklahoma State where he got the hundred-yard bonus in the rushing. They had a few touchdowns. They got down late, and he just could not find the passing game. I think that just kind of it gives him a really, really, really solid four if you're looking for that.

15:00

But I think it just kind of caps limits his upside unless he really pops off for like three plus touchdowns. Right. You're hoping for West Virginia to get the lead. Right. And, you know, they're they're slight underdogs. They're on the road. Tough game in Iowa State. But you mentioned the other side being underpriced. Nothing I've seen from Western defense says that it's fierce at all. Jalen Raynor is a guy that's been playing college football for a long time in Arkansas State before this.

15:29

He's a guy that we played in the midweek slates a lot. And he's a good quarterback, a solid quarterback. I mean, he's a really good athlete. He just has a lot of experience. He's been there. He's done that. And At $6,600 in a game where they have a twenty eight point team total slight favorite at home. You know, it just it seems like a pretty decent spot for an experienced quarterback who does have some rushing upside as well.

15:58

And you mentioned some of his pass catchers, very fairly priced, you know, condensed Target ShareIn college football, target share is the same percentage of team targets, but it is often far more concentrated: many offenses send a third or more of their throws to one receiver or tight end.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Full explanation ↗. You can match him up with Flora, who seems like a plug and play type running back just for the volume base. Just a really intriguing side. When you see twenty eight point team total, you expect to have some guys in the seven case, eight case. We got none of that. Not even the quarterback. Yeah. That's a really good point.

16:17

And I think the passing game on the Iowa state side is going to end up being a way to get different and still get exposure to this team if you want it. So, yeah, I think I, again, a sneaky, sneaky, good game upside here overall. I could, it could be a really fun game to watch.

16:34

We've seen a few of those on paper that like, Oh, these are two middle of the road or even bad football teams are like, Oh, so they can just put up points against each other.

16:40

And it ends up being like a, fifteen to twelve game Pittsburgh ucf all we can do is look at the numbers you know all we can do is read the numbers and try to predict based on that speaking of the numbers there's a lot on this notre dame side to talk about uh twenty one point favorites at north Carolina uh CJ Carr priced down a few bucks last week one thing I want to point out uh at ship it we just added our our LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ um optimal rate and leverage on the stone and CJ Carr was one of our highest leverage plays And he ended up going for twenty seven and a half points, which I'd have to look back and see what that meant in different contest structures.

17:17

But it was it was over three X's price. So it was good. Good for cash for sure. So one thing, if you look at LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ like nobody played, we're just going to play CJ Carr. And we had that we had that on our stone, the running. But I think he's fine. $8,200's fair. Nolan James and Aeneas Williams at their prices. Fair. And Jordan Faison and Micah Gilbert priced like Gilbert priced up to where he should be this week.

17:46

Um, so the fact that they're a little bit more expensive than we want to pay, I think at each, especially like the running backs on a split, that gives you an opportunity to maybe get an OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ discount. And who's to say a CJ car, Micah Gilbert skinny stack, isn't going to go for. Fifty plus, fifty-five points. It's, it's very possible. Um, But Notre Dame could get there seventy-five different ways.

18:13

So it's a little bit tougher to predict, but I think if you're MMEing, it's a good place to find some different combinations. On the North Carolina side, they got a twelve point team total. The running backs are tough. Ship and Thurman seem to get a lot of the volume. Humphrey maybe a little bit more. I know in that Clemson game, I heard Humphrey's name quite a bit and you got a cheap quarterback, but maybe you like it a little bit because they're at home.

18:36

But Notre Dame really should go in and demolish this team and make it tough to play any Tar Heels and DFS. Yeah, I mean, I think that's the mode that we've got to think about. Notre Dame, arguably the best defense in the land, kind of a dream as such until proven otherwise, or at least until they step up in competition to some of their own size, which will be coming pretty soon for Notre Dame. You mentioned Mikey Gilbert and the pricing on Notre Dame's side, very fair.

19:00

Last week, I think we saw some unfair pricing on them with Purdue. That's what made them ownership drive them a little bit more. You mentioned Mikey Gilbert being priced up now at $5,700, probably a fair price for who he is. Last week at $4,100. So here's the difference between how we're trying to think about, is this guy cash plays? Is he high upside play? At $4,100 for a guy like Micah Gilbert, who's been the top target for Notre Dame.

19:23

He gets there on like one or two cashes. He got a touchdown, long touchdown cash that basically hits him at twelve points right there with one play. And that hits his three X and that's solid cash. Why anything above that is pretty much the gravy that you're looking for. So that's kind of now when you price him up to $5,700.

19:39

Now you got to decide, does he have the upside to go for a hundred yard bonus, a double touchdown game, something like that, where he gets five catches to raise that point all up to into the twenties. So now you got to really think about does he have that as opposed to one of the guys really underpriced? He doesn't have to hit that much to get that to hit that to hit that value. So making you think a little bit, as you as you said with them.

20:02

And I think they're all just kind of thinking who knows what this game is. It's Bill Belichick. Yeah, it's just a weird spot. I think there's Notre Dame kind of playing the same game that they were the last few weeks. Yeah, and I think if North Carolina keeps it competitive, it's not because they're going to blow the doors off offensively. I think they're more likely to hit their team total in a competitive game. So they could get twelve points either way.

20:29

But yeah, I wouldn't just completely gloss over that game, but Notre Dame side is definitely the favorite for DFS. Now to the game of the week. Like I said, big noon Sunday, coming to Minnesota. Michigan coming off of a loss to Iowa, a sweet catch that we'll probably refer to later. As much as I despise Iowa, I wanted Michigan to lose ever since they had the extra second to beat Western Michigan.

20:57

One other thing away from DFS I'll say if the fans don't paint their faces red for this game what are they doing the whole student section should have red paint on their faces what was that psychopath what a psychopath what was that uh Bryce Underwood though back to DFS uh at sub six at sub $7,000 sixty nine nice And he can get there with his legs. He get a dual threat quarterback under $7,000 after we saw what Camario Taylor did to Minnesota.

21:28

I'm not saying Bryce Underwood Camario Taylor. Don't get that twisted. But I think at this price, the opportunity is certainly there, especially when he has a couple of stud wide receivers like JJ Buchanan and Andrew Marsh, who both hit the hundred yard bonus last week. And Marsh has had back to back hundred yard games. So these guys can help carry Underwood there through the air. Now Marsh is on the injury report, so we'll have to see what that does.

21:54

If it is just Buchanan out there, John Nestor is one of the best cover corners in the Big Ten. So maybe he shadows. He's been playing in the slot a little bit more this year. But Underwood, Buchanan, and Marsh I have my eyes on. They can get there even with a lower team total. The running game, I need to see somebody step up and take advantage of this backfield before I play him.

22:15

It's just been ho-hum, especially with Underwood running the way that he is so far in the season. Jordan Marshall is averaging four and a half yards a carry, but less than fifty yards a game, and we don't care how much he's averaging per carry if he's not getting the volume. On the Minnesota side, Drake Lindsey is cheap, but probably not cheap enough in this matchup. It's one of those situations where If he hits the potential that everybody's hyped him up to be, maybe.

22:41

But in this P.J. Fleck offense, I don't know. I think his ceiling is a little bit cappy even at sixty three, especially against a good defense. Tough to roster Darius Taylor until we see it. I could mark him injury prone injury risk every single week. If I'm playing this Minnesota side, it's it's one or two of these pass catchers that is on my list. Javon Tracy and Noah Jennings are getting a heavy Target ShareIn college football, target share is the same percentage of team targets, but it is often far more concentrated: many offenses send a third or more of their throws to one receiver or tight end.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Full explanation ↗.

23:05

Noah Jennings is a little bit cheaper, so I prefer him. It's just his catch rate is only sixty three percent or sixty percent compared to Tracy's eighty three. The one thing with Tracy is last week his ADOT was less than zero, his average depth of target. But that means he has higher percentage catches, like a more likelihood of catching the ball. Plus, he returns punts. He's already had a couple to the house. I mean, it was against a bad team.

23:28

But really just looking at them, maybe you can look at Jalen Smith, who I thought had potential to be wide receiver one. I'd like him more if he was like $3,300 this week. But really, for DFS purposes, even in a sloggy looking game, the usage on the Michigan side is where my eyes are in this one. Yeah, it seems like condensed receiver share for Michigan with a running upside quarterback. Underwood's best asset right now.

23:53

I think he's been finding his legs and trying to learn how to play offense or learn how to play quarterback with his legs underneath him. We saw him kind of improve week to week with that. Quarterback is kind of weird this week. There's not like standout quarterbacks, but Underwood might be the guy that becomes that kind of Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ most owned guy. Just because he's just under $7,000, he's got some rushing upside. It's Michigan known product. So we'll see about that.

24:19

You know, you got, you got Minnesota covered. Not much more to say about this game after. Yeah. And Underwood was just a name everybody knows because Michigan is a big time college football program and it's, it's on a slate that, is actually a little bit starved for value when you really step back and look at it. So his, yeah. But, and when you say there's no standout quarterbacks, you don't mean there's no good quarterbacks on the slate.

24:41

It's just that nobody's jumping off the page as the lock and load DFS. I think you're going to have to make decisions, which we could talk about, but I think the decision at who you play a quarterback, there's, I think there's a lot of options, a lot of different ways you can go. There's not like, there's not just like one guy that stands out as this is the, this is the guy plug and play guy.

25:01

I think there's a lot of people that you can play and mix around it with makes it that much interesting for us. Absolutely. Absolutely. To the other Michigan team in the big ten, Michigan State at Wisconsin, Michigan State with half of a defense. Not much to say on that side of the ball. Alessio Milivojevic, I mean, even against Easter Michigan, he only had a hundred and seventy yards. And you still have to worry about Cam Fancher sniping a rushing touchdown, like taking Milivojevic off the field.

25:32

So even like $5,300, it's even tough to pull the trigger. Cam Edwards, the one guy might have been interested on this Michigan State side, is now done for the season. So Maybe it forces the passing game a little bit more, but Jason Patterson and Marvis Parrish don't do a whole lot for me either. The one guy I might look at is Jaden Savoury, the tight end for Michigan, because he's been getting the looks. He's been tight end one.

25:59

You know, Rodney Bullard has the big play potential. Kryshon McCray came in expected to be wide receiver one. I'd Just another team I'd like to see more from. They almost lost to Toledo. So it's not even like the Notre Dame game is all we're looking at here. Just a tough spot, especially with how depleted they are on the Wisconsin side. This is one of those quarterbacks that you could take a hard look at because Michigan State's depleted on defense.

26:28

Four quarterbacks down, their top linebacker, maybe top defenders out. So Colton Joseph could have a field day. Now, he is capable of running the ball. He's not running it like he was at ODU, but he is capable. Abu Sama is on the report. If he goes, I want a piece of this running game, but I like Dupree a lot more if Sama can't go. Maybe a little bit. If he does, I'll get a little Sama.

27:00

But in this wide receiver room, another guy that you're looking at for maybe a value option, Tyrell Henry, target leader by a long ways. Now, a lot of that has to do with seventeen targets in one game, but he's still on the field enough and priced low enough, maybe a little bit underpriced. Eugene Hilton, who I thought could be wide receiver one, just the production hasn't been there. His catch rate is sub-fifty percent. He had two drops against Penn State.

27:27

Um, Chris Brooks, uh, is on the field enough and he's cheap. Uh, Jacobs Harris is on the field enough and he's cheap. Uh, Kenny earlier today mentioned Malachi Coleman, uh, as a way to get value in the MME world. Um, but he does like, he does like the Wisconsin stack for MME, uh, quite a bit. That's one thing he mentioned to us. Uh, but outside, like, I don't know how much more there's to say about this game. Just, I hate, I don't like Wisconsin.

27:57

And I don't want to play Michigan State. I'll probably get some Badgers, though. I'll probably get some Badgers. I'm going to try to sell you a little bit on Wisconsin. You know, great comeback for them last week. I don't think you can look at Michigan State at all. Numbers are not screaming them in any way, shape, or form. But Wisconsin has been playing a little bit better.

28:13

You know, the three and one, they lost that game to Notre Dame, but they have also put up the most points against Notre Dame. You mentioned the running game of Wisconsin, and you mentioned quarterbacks. Well, I think the running game from Wisconsin runs through the quarterback, Colton Joseph, who is a true dual threat. He was really good at ODU. That's what he did. And then he's always got that rushing threat.

28:34

His prop lines are about in the, you know, And if Sama is hurt or banged up at all, he's, again, a quarterback who's got the line to it with some upside of the passing game here as well with Henry and Brooks, some of the pass catchers you mentioned. So I'd get another team, upper-twenties team total, double-digit favorite at home, whatever the weather is. With, with some upside there in their team, because the pricing just not very high. There's not very, it's not very low.

29:09

We don't have that cheap, that kind of cheap kind of pump play, but we have some value plays here within that four to $5,000 range where you could build out your full lineup with some of these guys. Yeah. Joseph, same conversation with Underwood there. Yeah. They're priced very nicely. And that's, that's one line of construction you could look at is going to middle of the road quarterbacks.

29:31

Now it's, It's scary fading the Camarios, the Keelan Russell, some of these other higher-priced quarterbacks. But you have to look at what it does for the rest of your lineup. Does it allow you to get Jaden Baugh? Does it allow you to get Jeremiah Smith? A couple guys we're going to talk about here in a few minutes. So, yeah, Roster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗ is big when we're looking at the price of these two quarterbacks that have the dual threat. Upside, for sure. Not much upside on the Vanderbilt side.

29:56

Twelve-and-a-half-point implied team total on the road against Georgia. Jared Curtis is on the report. So we're not even entirely sure if he's going to play. He let me down last week. I can't imagine that Georgia is a better matchup than Auburn. I don't like maybe you hope for garbage time, but that's, I don't like it. I don't like either of these running backs, even at cheaper prices.

30:17

I mean, if, if you think they can get there on receptions, that I think is the only route to play them, but it's still like an unmaintained gravel road. So it's, it's, it's, That's a no for me, dog. Junior Sherrill just feels a little bit too expensive for me. I think he can still produce in this matchup.

30:37

I don't hate it completely, though, because Arkansas and Oklahoma both had some success passing the ball against Georgia, and we don't care if it's in garbage time. Even if they get garbage time yards, it counts for DFS. Yeah, you wish he was in the four Ks. Yeah, for sure. For sure. Maybe that's why you look at Javonte Conner, a guy who's at least on the field and could have some opportunity. And that would be the reason to play Curtis, too, if he's healthy at $5,100.

31:06

But again, that's probably an MME route. That's not something we're talking for cash. And then on the Georgia side, you're. Gunner Stockton is another dual threat quarterback. He hasn't needed to be this year, but he did end up with a hundred and twenty on the ground when all of a sudden done against Arkansas. Eighty on one play. Yeah, that's that's going to skew your stats a lot. Nate Frazier, if he goes, I think he's in play.

31:31

Chauncey Bowens is in play even if he goes. But if Frazier doesn't go as Bowens quickly climbs the charts is one of my favorite plays on the slate. And then. This wide receiver room, I mean, Taylor and Taylor. Uh, we talked about earlier tonight, we've talked about in the past that, you know, he could be the guy finally had seven targets. It was the first time all year. Anybody on Georgia had more than four targets in a game.

31:53

Uh, the rest of these guys are going to be out there. You can take a shot on. So Kobe, you can take a shot on dangerous. You can take a shot on loss and lucky. Uh, if you want to get real greasy fire up Thomas Blackshear, uh, he's actually run the most routes on the team, despite only playing in three of the four games. Does come with some risk because he's only got two catches on nine targets this year and zero on his last five targets.

32:19

However, he is bottom of the barrel in pricing. So, like, I'm not going to recommend that play. I just want to give you the numbers I'm looking at that wasn't a complete cross-off for a guy like Thomas Blackshear. But I don't know how comfortable I feel in cash with any of these guys unless Frazier out. If we get some clarity on that running back situation, Frazier or Bowens, if Frazier out, Bowens is just a smash cash play. Especially at $6,500.

32:49

So I can take the reins last week and he really delivered in that spot. If you're able to get to him, I do think just reading the tea leaves, reading a little bit. Taylor Taylor is the guy that's stepping up as their number one. And they certainly need to find that guy. They have some big games coming up in the next few weeks here into October. So they're definitely trying to figure out who that guy is going to be. He was a big time recruit.

33:10

He's been increasing his workload each week as we get further into conference play. You know, he had his Best game last week. I do think that it's going to continue. You know, at $4,400, not a lot of value there, not a lot of pay down options, depending what your Roster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗ is, depending how you how you have use your salary. I think he's definitely in play as a One-OffIn CFB DFS, a one-off is a player you roster outside a stack, often a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. A quarterback selected without his pass catchers can also function as a standalone play.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗ guy. If you're looking for some save or spot at receiver.

33:37

Yeah, one of those stacks that if you stack stocked it with Taylor, I think you're going to be in a very select group. Florida at Missouri, I believe the highest team total on the slate. If not, it's close. I'll get my Florida shirt up. All right. Yeah, I'm not going to talk too much about this game because I know you have it covered like a blanket. A couple of things I do want to mention, though, is with Aaron Philo, Mississippi State just torched Missouri.

34:10

Again, Aaron Philo is not Kamario Taylor. But I think if you wanted to look at him, that's one of the things you can look at. Jaden Baugh, I mean, his price shocks you at first. But when we were getting $10,000 Caleb Hawkins last year, I think $9,800 Jaden Baugh is fine in the passing game. A lot of moving parts here because Brunel Brown's on the report. Bailey Stockton is on the report, but he came back last week.

34:36

You know, Brown and Wilson still a top two guys. Obviously, if Brown's out, that changes things. But then Eric Singleton a guy. That came back last week. And the one thing I'll mention about him is average depth of target was forty three yards. There's only two targets, but that's I mean, for DFS, that's fun. That's high risk, high reward. If he catches both of those for touchdowns, that's nuts. And then on the Missouri side, Austin Simmons is probably underpriced.

34:59

And I think you can get to Florida through the air, you know, especially if Florida is ahead. Again, it doesn't matter when the production happens. It's just that it happens Jamal, Jamal Roberts, a volume monster. And we love that for running backs. He's averaging twenty two carries a game and more the last three. I think last week was twenty six. And he's also getting a couple of targets a game. So if we're talking volume, Jamal Roberts fits that mold. And then Caden Lee and Donovan Alubide.

35:29

I think that's right. I did check to pronounce her, but I already forgot. Yeah. Lou Bidet. Lee had the monster game last week. I mean, he was having success prior to that. Lou Bidet, five touchdowns already and at least six targets in every game. And, you know, I'll let you give the eye test. But from what I've seen and obviously looking at the numbers, Florida gets beat a little bit more on the outside, which is where both of these guys play.

35:54

So. Or they would favor a little bit, at least in the slot. But I think both are viable here because they just get all of the targets. Yeah, that's pretty condensed right there. And Caden Lee was the guy that came over with Austin Simmons from Mississippi in the transfer portal. So they kind of come together as a package deal. Saw him just be the go to guy. One thing I'll mention. Another thing I'll mention, Missouri said you cover them pretty well.

36:18

Nashawn Montgomery was at Florida last year he was one of the first guys out of the portal once the coaching change happened and uh he was one of the first guys at that locker room so this might be a little bit meaningful game for him I love a good revenge game there was you know there was about three former gators on the mississippi defense last week and one a couple of them got run over pretty good some of the highlight packages uh that's my biased take on that uh Yeah, we have definitely seen quarterbacks against Florida hit their value in the second half.

36:53

Obviously, Florida's been rolling. This is a weird spot. Going on the road into the Midwest, they haven't really played well at Missouri in the past. Obviously, this is a whole new regime, whole new team, whole new identity. So don't want to let that carry over. It's just one of the longer trips in the SEC from Gainesville out to Columbia, Missouri. And I'm more of a Midwest town where I am now in Chicago area than it is in the south.

37:18

But looking at the Florida side, I know you mentioned a lot of things. Jaden Baugh has eleven touchdowns in four games. That's a lot. Yeah, that is a lot. And they want to feed him the ball. It's no secret. That's his goal. That's their goal. That's. He's been great. He's just been on a tear, and he's just had a tremendous start to the season. I think it's a very fair price for him. He's got that floor upside that we want to see.

37:52

Duke Clark did pop off for under-twenty yards. He's been getting touches. He's been spelling them. The thing with Florida is they're just, like, continuing to pound the ball. And he had under-twenty yards and two touchdowns last week, and he made some crazy highlight moves. He was a four-star recruit. He stayed nailed over, and he's been great, too. I mean... Just, you know, he's not going to be the number one ball on the field. I think that it is significant. Vernal Brown did leave.

38:16

They said he was okay. You know, they didn't push him to come back. He did have a touchdown taken off the board. Dallas Wilson did end up having a rushing touchdown last week as well and around. Vernal Brown, my kind of gut feeling is I don't think he plays. Kind of knee. He's such a shifty guy. He's so talented. I think they just maybe want to give him another week and see, especially with Singleton coming back.

38:38

Singleton's not on the injury report at all. He played last week when Brown came out, and he literally just ran six straight lines down the field. Got a PI, got a catch. You mentioned his average as a target. He got tackled at the one on his catch. But I think Singleton the guy they're going to mix in. Singleton was with Buster Falkner in Georgia Tech before he went to Auburn last year. He was a very high-priced recruit in the portal.

38:59

Um coming in so he was a pretty big get and I think this is a game especially if bernal brown is out that he will see some volume at four six you know it makes it a little bit viable at Dallas Wilson and six nine I don't think he's gonna get the target so we want to see there but simpson four six does make a little interesting I mean other than that the past catchers down there are just more than just guys who would be on the field but

39:23

I think you could, if you have a salary for ball, if you want to make a decision, if you want to find a way to Spending UpSpending up means choosing a higher-priced player over a cheaper alternative, using more of your lineup's salary budget at that spot. You may also hear it called paying up.Build a version with your preferred expensive player and another without. Before choosing, check whether either version relies on a cheap player whose expected role still depends on unresolved injury news.Full explanation ↗ for him, you're paying for a guy who has eleven touchdowns in four games and could run for one twenty. And his prop line right now is at one twenty and two touchdowns. So that's kind of what people expect him to do at this point. I mean, the consistency is certainly there.

39:41

And just I love the Duke Clark call to circle back to that, because in the last two games, Florida has run the ball fifty three times in each game. So even if Jaden Baugh gets thirty carries, that's twenty three more rushing attempts to go between Duke Clark and, you know, if Aaron Filo falls forward a couple of times or whatever. But there's plenty of meat on the bone even after Baugh.

40:04

And for the discount, that's a that's an MME play if I ever heard one for sure, because nobody's playing Duke Clark. Yeah, I'm excited. I'm excited. Florida football is, you know, it's got me pumped up. I don't talk too much about that game. Yeah, it doesn't make you feel good. As a Minnesota fan, especially like Minnesota Vikings, I don't know if – I know letdown. I know hopes dashed. I know disappointment. I've watched several Super Bowl teams not make it to the Super Bowl.

40:32

So I get it. Auburn at Tennessee. Auburn a seven-point dog on the road. A lot of points in this game too. Byron Brown is priced down. Not much, but it rhymes, so I wanted to say it. And is he?

40:48

Best quarterback who's faced Tennessee this year god I just want to trigger people uh you will really though byron brown in terms of his dual threat he's really come into his like what we expected from byron brown over the last few games I think $8,000's probably too cheap he can get there with his arm or his legs um so $1,000 I think is a fair price maybe a little underpriced honestly The running back room is hard to figure out.

41:16

Jeremiah Cobb's still the clear number one, and he averaged seven yards a carry last week, but he's still only got eight carries. And then in terms of safety at the wide receiver position, you look at Singleton and Nimrod for pass catchers. They're the guys who get fed targets. Koger and Spencer are more your dart throws. They're on the field enough. They just don't have the volume. But, you know, those two, Singleton and Nimrod, especially if Auburn's trailing.

41:40

We saw against Florida that Auburn will chuck the ball around And then Tennessee phase on Brandon. It's like I think it's a price play. He's dual threat upside as well. He just turned eighteen in June, so he's maybe maybe the youngest starting quarterback in college football. I haven't verified that, but he's got to be close. And for a thirty point team total, I like the price for the dual threat ability. Take away the sacks against Texas and he had seventy five yards rushing.

42:10

And I mean, Auburn's not going to sack.

42:13

Him as much it in theory they shouldn't they might not even sack him as much as Simmons did by himself yeah um so that's something you have to consider when you're looking at that stat line from last week uh the split is a little bit scary but the sean bishop man still the number one guy uh at Tennessee price fairly I think has extreme upside as well even at $7,600 uh personally watching the game it seemed like every time I looked up dewan Morris was on the field so I might have a little bit of an eye test bias, but I think honestly, both guys are viable depending on how your lineup looks.

42:48

Bishop, more of the cash Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗. Morris would be your MME guy. The wide receivers, Mike Matthews has been the guy. His price is getting up there. Braylon Staley, though, his increase is starting to creep up higher and higher. And he's actually run more routes than Mike Matthews. So maybe if you look at it as, oh, it's just taken a few games for Brandon, Faison Brandon to get in a rhythm with Staley.

43:11

I like the thirteen hundred dollar discount if you want a piece of this passing game. And then Jackson and Brown are just out there again. So but, you know, with the other game, the Alabama Mississippi State game with the Florida Missouri game, there's a chance this Auburn Tennessee game gets overlooked and there's potential for sixty points in this game as well. You know, it's crazy to think that Tennessee's team total implied team total is pretty similar to Florida's, the game we just talked about.

43:35

So it just kind of makes you think a little bit. And And Faison Brandon is a type of guy that at seven, four, just kind of theme of it. You know, he's got some rushing upside there. Yeah. Twenty carries for about two yards. But like you say, you take away the ten sacks and he's in the seventies and ten carries and he was running. He's got that ability. You know, Auburn, we know where Bryson, not Bryson, what Byron Brown is. This is just USF's offense.

44:02

Just playing at Auburn. I think we know what to expect from it. Maybe not as high upside playing at the higher level of competition on defense, but pretty predictable. But I really am interested in the Tennessee game. Like, the thirty-point team total makes it really intriguing, and I think that is something to look at. Faison Brandon in seven-four, he's in that range, the same as, like, Colton Joseph, similar to Underwood, like...

44:26

Just that same range where he's got a similar type of floor upside ability with the rushing, with the passing, with the game environment, touchdown favorite, thirty point team total on paper. It looks great. You know, I don't know. Is he beat up from getting sacked from running the ball twenty times as a just just turn eighteen year old from last week? Who knows? Only only we'll find out Saturday. But it does really intrigue us on paper to look at that.

44:52

Yeah, I mean, I think NCAA football, the video game, should raise his toughness rating for sure after last week because that kid took a beating. Yes. But, yeah, I mean, another game that could be super fun to watch. All right, moving on. Virginia, Florida State. Hey, we're finally out of the SEC. Not for good. Not for good. No, we have a weird game to talk about coming up. Virginia, Florida State, Bo Pribula has thrown the ball pretty effectively.

45:22

And the last couple of weeks they've thrown the ball more. So if he can maintain, like if he can scale that up and they're going to throw the ball more, obviously, $7,600 is again, just like you said, another quarterback that's probably on your list because he's got the rushing upside to who he has more rushing upside than anybody in this running back room.

45:43

This is such a weird running back room, like We could see all four of these guys, Middlebrook, Brown, Davis, Vaughn, and that's just not something I really want to touch, again, until we get a clear number one guy.

45:57

The wide receiver room, though, is interesting because Rico Flores missed the first two games of the year, came back in week three, had a couple of targets, a couple of catches, but then last week had nine catches on ten targets, got the hundred yard bonus, scored a touchdown, and he's only $4,500. If I got to imagine people are going to look at the recent more than the whole.

46:23

Because as a whole, if you look at his stats on the year, they don't look great. They don't jump off the page at you. Once you dig in and see, hey, this is only in two games and most of it was in one, Flores is the number one guy in this room. That's what we predicted. He was just hurt. Cam Courtney and Deshaun Martin are going to be on the field. And you know I like Dakota Twitty because he's a tight end.

46:43

The Florida state side might have the best play in this game uh ashton daniel's in a decent spot for this price again it just depends on where you want to spend your money this week in your Roster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗ uh virginia's defense looks good on paper but I mean is the best team they played was west virginia and they ran for nearly five yards of carry against them so they they're gonna grade out high because of who they played uh but then I mean, that's why I like Usman Kromah, $5,900.

47:12

He's a cheap workhorse. Sam Singleton already out. Are we finally going to see more Trey Wisner? I don't know. We saw more of him last week, but that was against Central Arkansas. So we can't really take much from that game. But Kromah, man, just jumps out as one of those first guy and sort of clicks when you're scrolling through. And I think all of these wide receivers, like these top three wide receivers are all in play. Deuce, I mean, could be sitting on a huge game.

47:38

He's always got that ceiling. Jabin Boggs Target ShareIn college football, target share is the same percentage of team targets, but it is often far more concentrated: many offenses send a third or more of their throws to one receiver or tight end.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Full explanation ↗ the last couple of weeks has been super high. I'd like him to catch a few more of those, but he's getting more involved. I mean, Makai Danzy, he's a fine wide receiver three. You're playing him because you get a thousand dollar discount from Boggs and six hundred from Deuce. But A lower team total than some of these other games we talked about, but with the way pricing shapes up in this one, this could be a sneaky full-on Game StackIn college football, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗.

48:07

Yeah, this is the game I think you'd find the best value, especially at the lower end here at the receiver room. But the quarterbacks just are the same guys we've been talking about, some dual-threat guys with some running floors, with some passing upside. But really, you said is one of the better rushing ones. He's a guy that's been there, done that. It's a guy that we depend on. We've seen it before and we've seen it.

48:30

You know, I think we'd expect to see it again here with the twenty seven point team total floor, as you mentioned, floor is definitely got jumps off the paper, just coming in injury, just uptick in production. Exactly the trajectory we want to see going on the road here as a short favorite. You know, Daniels floor is probably a little capped from his passing, but, you know, he did throw for over three yards against Alabama. He's always got that rushing outside. But Cromo, the man, Cromo's the man.

48:57

Cromo's the man here. He's been a workhorse since day one, since week zero. He's very, very, very, very affordable there at five, nine for a workhorse running back in this kind of game environment, you know, injuries behind him. Should get the volume that we really look for in that catch running back, and Crowell is definitely the guy. How many guys do you want to play from this game? That's the decision you've got to make for yourself.

49:19

I probably wouldn't want to have very many, but definitely Crowell with a quarterback, Crowell with a receiver or two I think is viable. Just because you can do a lot more with the rest of your lineups.

49:34

With the rest of your build with it because deuce bogs you guys mentioned those seem to be the the two guys out there boxes coming on lately but deuce has been there for two years as the man you know hard to ignore yeah and one of those games that if we don't see OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ float to this game uh afternoon pivot if you need to catch up because there's plenty of salary space to work with here uh hit Hit the like button if you haven't already.

50:00

Got a couple of games left. Again, pre-recording. Y'all already know that. If you see my attention go over there, it's because we're recording this Thursday night, breaking down the fourth wall. I got Thursday night football up on the screen. And it's a one-score game. So exciting NFL night, too. Ohio State at Iowa. We were done with Ohio State last week. They're just too expensive, and they're not going to pay off. Boy, did they prove us wrong. You know what?

50:27

I'm going to say, though, on this slate, Julian Sane is still tough to get to. I might regret it, but it's still tough to get to him. The Jackson brothers, Bo and Jaboby, a little expensive for the timeshare they're in. Either one of them could get there. A risky play. Jeremiah Smith, $9,400. Another price that jumps off the page is a little bit of shock value on the high end. Is sixty points even enough at this price?

50:55

I mean, really, do we want to play Jeremiah Smith? No, you can play Jeremiah Smith at $9,400. I'd go for it. I mean, we saw his ceiling. It could happen again. I think I was a better secondary than Illinois, but not by enough that it scares me off of Jeremiah Smith. If he's if he fits my lineup, the Iowa side that I love being able to crap on Iowa because they are one of the God.

51:22

I don't remember the last time the Gophers won Floyd of Rosedale without fair catch interference. So Hank Brown, never going to jump off the page for you. Not going to jump off the page this game. Tough to play the running backs in this game. You have three pass catchers. I think it starts with Diaz and Bonamy. Diaz still got the targets last week, just didn't get the catches.

51:43

Vandersee obviously going to be on a lot of people's notes because of the big catch he had last week. And Bonamy is fine, but I don't know how much, like, These are One-OffIn CFB DFS, a one-off is a player you roster outside a stack, often a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. A quarterback selected without his pass catchers can also function as a standalone play.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗ guys if you're playing any of them, regardless of which one you're playing. The Ohio State side is what you're looking at. But it's just I mean, it's expensive. It's this is not a this is not a fun game to have to project for DFS. I'll tell you that.

52:06

No. And, you know, June saying you mentioned him. Can you play him without Jeremiah Smith? That's the big question is I don't think you can. I think you're playing saying you want to bring him back with somebody. And it's got to be Jeremiah Smith. And that's just so much salary and two guys right there. It's really, really tough to see Jeremiah Smith as a one off for sure, though, for sure. You know, we just have no kind of.

52:28

Idea of what the the running back room is kind of eating itself up and the every pass catcher behind Jeremiah Smith is kind of eating itself up illinois did fire their dc last week after that game um so maybe credit that to Jeremiah Smith uh probably fairly priced at nine four make a decision you you may want to play one of those those $9,000 guys this week I think you can find a way to build to it um just really hard to play multiple guys from that team that They only have a thirty point team total.

52:56

So I did last with a forty point team total. But we do expect to see all that run through Jeremiah Smith. So decision there is definitely, you know, he is the cash receiver. Gene Ball was a cash running back. He's the cash receiver. You got to make a decision there. And it really comes from how you build out the rest of your lineup. I'm not going to talk too much about the Iowa guys. Yeah.

53:16

And historically, the best part of Iowa's game is their punt game. So maybe maybe that's why you play Jeremiah Smith. He's going to have potential for ninety five yards every single time. Right. Exactly. Speaking of a game that I didn't think we were going to talk a lot about, but it's competitive. Two teams in the mid to high twenties team total and valuable. Like there's value here on the Kentucky side. Kentucky. Kenny Minchie is cheap. Ken plays for Kentucky.

53:44

Uh, and that's, I think that's why Kenny likes Kentucky. He, we talked about Tim a few weeks ago. There's a lot of Ken's a lot of Ken's on the board again at $6,100. I think you can keep them on your list. Uh, he's going to be without one of his top pass catchers. Oh, DJ Miller, uh, is doubtful. Uh, but he's still got Kenny Darby with the big play potential. He's still got Willie Rodriguez at tight end. Who's a Target ShareIn college football, target share is the same percentage of team targets, but it is often far more concentrated: many offenses send a third or more of their throws to one receiver or tight end.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Full explanation ↗.

54:08

Um, So there's a potential for a stack to get here, or even, like, they're cheap wide receivers and tight ends, so you could do a One-OffIn CFB DFS, a one-off is a player you roster outside a stack, often a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. A quarterback selected without his pass catchers can also function as a standalone play.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Full explanation ↗ there. The running back room is interesting, though, too. Like, I think C.J. Baxter is still number one, but there's kind of a fifty-fifty split or close, too. Like, in terms of production, it could be either one of these guys, and then Joe Barnes is still kind of there and could see the field. So it's a little bit tougher.

54:32

I think I wouldn't blame you for playing one, but they're priced weird, too, all above $5,000. Baxter at six. On the South Carolina side, probably too cheap for Lenora Sellers at $7,200 because he can get you there with his legs. Still running the ball at nine yards a carry this season. If you take out sacks, Matt Fuller has just been an absolute stud. He can catch the ball. He can run the ball. He's finally priced where he should be.

54:54

We got him in the $4,000's a couple of weeks ago and it was awesome. Now he's $7,200, but I think he's still cash viable, viable in all formats. And then the wide receiver room, man, Nick Harbor and Mazeo Bennett.

55:06

Are target hogs but Harbor's catch rate is fifty percent Bennett's catch rate is like forty seven point six percent both have four drops they could be slate breakers if they could catch the ball but this is oddly one of those games that I thought was going to be a little boring but for DFS purposes not a bad late afternoon hammer now you look at the numbers you got you got a total in the mid-fifties You got two team totals, twenty-five and above, twenty-eight, twenty-nine for South Carolina.

55:36

You got one of those high upside quarterbacks you mentioned with the rush pass option with Lenore Sellers. People kind of quitting on him, but he has receivers that definitely let him down. His most reliable guy has been Matt Fuller, who really has come through the last few weeks. He's just been pretty much a stud at the running back spot. And then you got the Kentucky side, who All these guys are priced down, but they've just been winning by running the ball with multiple guys.

56:07

And if you had one guy there, one go-to running back, they'd be a smash play at one of their prices. But you've got two, and it's really hard to say. You make some lineups, you want to split them. It seems like a pretty decent Game StackIn college football, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗ where maybe you stack up the South Carolina side running back with one of the running backs, do the same thing with the other running back.

56:26

You know, that could be an interesting play there because, you know, Sellers does pass the ball to Bennett and Harbor and Fuller. Fuller catches it. The other guys that really have it, Harbor can get. You know, we've seen Harbor get those six, seven years. He's just a freak. I think he was number one on the freak list in the offseason. He looks like a guy that if he's listed at four or two, should be absolute smashing.

56:52

Especially in a game where they projected to score twenty nine points. So it's it's really interesting, unique game. I think it's one that we can't ignore in the late hammer game. I think one that you try to get creative when take some shots in one off guys Fuller for sure, as you mentioned. But don't you want to take a shot on one of those cheaper receivers from South Carolina? I wouldn't be opposed to that either. I might be thinking about that myself.

57:18

Yeah and it's it's one of those games where if you do want to force a late stack a late game hammer um maybe put some additional rules in there so you don't end up with a double running back on one side or you know over stacking with you know like again super high ceilings but not safe at all uh however like I don't know it's cheap enough like you said it can open up your your lineups for a lot in some of the other games but that's going to do it uh I mean, I think a pretty fun slate because there's a lot to consider.

57:49

There's a lot to think about. You got to decide where you want to spend your money. The value is not incredibly clear, especially under $4,000 values in your build, not say the players and the values in the way that you build your lineup and where you go for that. I think there's really a lot of good questions at quarterback that make this really fun to think about. Absolutely.

58:11

And what better a day than to have, the Gophers in the early window, the Gators in the late window, get the double G going. Let's get a couple more big wins for our teams. Any other final thoughts on this lady? Yeah, no, every week is every week is different. That's what makes this game so much fun because of the different players that we get each week, different pricing that we get each week. So another challenge ahead of us. You know, we are in October.

58:36

This is college football season right here. It's conference season. It's college football season. Another exciting Saturday on tap for us. Let's win some money. Absolutely. And again, appreciate the pre-recording late Thursday night. We hope to be back live next Friday at twelve thirty Lord's time zone. One thirty Easter time for those of you who are new here. But we'll end this show the same way we end every show with the big guys rule number one. College football is fun. Enjoy building your lineups.

59:08

Enjoy the sweat. Love the fact and be thankful that we have college football on our TVs every single Saturday. Sixty-one straight days of football started Thursday night between college and pros. What a time of year. We're going to get some Tuesday college football next week. That's exciting. That fits right into this rule number one. But the most important thing, don't take a single day for granted because we never know which one's going to be our last. But with that, For my friend Ian, I'm Dollar Bill.

59:37

We'll see you in the college football streets this Saturday. Let's go out and ship one for the big guy.

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Jump to a Game

  1. 0:00Intro
  2. 2:58Alabama at Mississippi State
  3. 7:55UCF at Houston
  4. 11:57West Virginia at Iowa State
  5. 16:49Notre Dame at North Carolina
  6. 20:36Michigan at Minnesota
  7. 25:09Michigan State at Wisconsin
  8. 29:54Vanderbilt at Georgia
  9. 33:45Florida at Missouri
  10. 40:35Auburn at Tennessee
  11. 45:07Virginia at Florida State
  12. 50:17Ohio State at Iowa
  13. 53:28Kentucky at South Carolina
  14. 57:46Final Thoughts and Lineup Construction

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