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NFL DFS Week 6 Takedown Breakdown | Winning DraftKings Lineups & Strategy Review

Aired Mon Oct 19, 2026 Runtime 56:15 Chapters 12 Views 1,423

From the archive. This breakdown is for the Monday, October 19 NFL slate. Salaries, weather and picks were for that day.

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The Short Version

Tyler Tamboline and Matthew Belman review Week 6’s winning DraftKings lineups after Bijan Robinson, Puka Nacua and Brock Bowers disappointed. Kenneth Walker III illustrates the payoff from pivoting off popular running backs, while Tennessee offered an alternative to the cheap chalk defenses. The $20 Milly Maker winner used Michael Penix Jr. without a pass catcher, and the portfolio showed deliberate two-for-two variations rather than one randomly assembled lineup.

Tre Tucker supplied cheaper access to the Raiders’ passing game than Bowers in the $555 winner, opening salary for two expensive running backs. Germie Bernard ($4,000) worked even opposite that lineup’s Buccaneers defense. The Showdown review emphasizes balancing likely optimal builds against duplication and the payout when an unusual lineup wins. The closing lesson is to recognize favorable breaks alongside bad beats and maintain bankroll discipline after a large score.

Plays Mentioned

PlayCallThe TakeAt
CHALK He was heavily owned, and his late receptions did not rescue the lineups that needed a big performance. 10:06
He was identified alongside Kenneth Walker III as a running back priced below Bijan Robinson who drew less attention. 12:28
CHALK His opportunity and home matchup drove heavy ownership, but his failure made the alternative running back builds valuable in this retrospective. 12:44
LEVERAGE Using him instead of Bijan Robinson gave lineups a way to capitalize when the popular running back failed. 12:58
Caleb Williams + Rome Odunze + Colston Loveland + Drake London IN PLAY The show revisits a liked Chicago stack with London as the bring-back and acknowledges that it did not work out. 12:58
Tyler Shough + Chris Olave + Malik Nabers + Isaiah Likely IN PLAY This was offered as a way to use the Saints quarterback with one pass catcher and two opposing receivers instead of the more common Jameis Winston construction. 14:49
His late passing production helped the Giants receivers, and the show raised the possibility of him becoming the starter without making a DFS recommendation. 16:12
Titans DST LEVERAGE At $2,300, Tennessee was an alternative to the popular cheap defenses, particularly for builds without Daniel Jones or Jonathan Taylor. 18:00
Saints DST The lineup-builder demonstration considered New Orleans for its optimal rate in a hypothetical build without Malik Nabers or Isaiah Likely. 19:54
Chiefs DST The $20 winner had 70% exposure against approximately 5% ownership in the field; this was a review of that entrant's portfolio rather than an exposure recommendation. 22:12
VALUE His cheap salary allowed the $20 winner to fit strong plays elsewhere even without pairing him with a pass catcher. 25:47
His $600 salary was used in a less duplicated Showdown construction, but Pierre Strong Jr. outscored him and the lineup fell short. 31:48
CeeDee Lamb + George Pickens + Ryan Flournoy The winning Showdown construction used Lamb at captain with Pickens and Flournoy but no Dak Prescott, leaving salary unused and producing a much smaller chop. 36:48
Kirk Cousins + Tre Tucker + James Cook The $555 winning lineup paired Cousins with Tucker and used Cook as the opposing bring-back. 40:29
CHALK He failed at substantial ownership in the $555 contest, with the show recalling roughly 22% to 25%. 41:27
VALUE He provided inexpensive access to an appealing afternoon game and could fit Kirk Cousins stacks or builds with James Cook. 42:21
VALUE At $4,000 in PPR scoring, the show defended using him even against the defense in the same lineup. 43:36

DFS Terms Used on This Show

Classic ContestsNFL Classic contests use players from multiple games. On DraftKings, you fill nine spots within $50,000: one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one flex and one team defense/special teams.Check the included games before building. A Classic contest can cover a small afternoon slate rather than the full day, changing your available players and lineup options.Read the full definition of Classic Contests▶ Said at 0:36 SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate▶ Said at 1:21 GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Read the full definition of GPP▶ Said at 5:36 Bankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Read the full definition of Bankroll Management▶ Said at 7:11 Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry▶ Said at 7:30 ContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian▶ Said at 10:36 LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage▶ Said at 11:13 OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership▶ Said at 12:44 Roster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Read the full definition of Roster Construction▶ Said at 14:04 VarianceIn NFL DFS, touchdowns can create large scoring swings without much change in touches or targets. With each team usually playing once per week, you also get relatively few games to judge a player's results within one season.Track results by contest type and slate, and review opportunity separately from touchdowns or other rare scoring events. Entering the same lineup in ten contests does not give you ten independent performance samples.Read the full definition of Variance▶ Said at 18:23 ProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections▶ Said at 18:44 The FieldThe field is everyone else entered in a contest, the group of lineups you are competing against.Before you build, picture the typical lineup in your contest. Then decide on purpose where you'll match it and where you'll step away from it.Read the full definition of The Field▶ Said at 22:12 UnderweightYou are underweight in DFS when a player, team stack or lineup combination appears in a smaller percentage of your entries than in the contest field's entries.Compare the same contest, format and roster slot. Use projected ownership before lock, then check actual ownership afterward to see whether your intended underweight stance held.Read the full definition of Underweight▶ Said at 22:12 Late SwapIn NFL contests with late swap, you can change unlocked afternoon or evening players after earlier games begin. Only games included in that contest's player pool are available.Before the first games lock, identify affordable backup combinations for your later players. Check that each combination fits the open positions, then confirm your saved changes in every affected entry.Read the full definition of Late Swap▶ Said at 22:12 Showdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Read the full definition of Showdown▶ Said at 29:51 OptimizerAn optimizer is software that builds DFS lineups within a site's salary cap and roster rules. It uses projected fantasy points, your settings and, in some tools, simulations to select combinations for a chosen goal.Build a small test batch first. Check which players and combinations repeat, and investigate why before increasing the lineup count or changing settings.Read the full definition of Optimizer▶ Said at 38:00 Bring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back▶ Said at 40:29

Full Transcript

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0:05

Let's go. Clear for lift off.

0:36

What's up everyone tyler tamboline here aka ToeTagginTambo back for another edition of the takedown breakdown here on the shipment nation YouTube station breaking down all the winners during week six Classic ContestsNFL Classic contests use players from multiple games. On DraftKings, you fill nine spots within $50,000: one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one flex and one team defense/special teams.Check the included games before building. A Classic contest can cover a small afternoon slate rather than the full day, changing your available players and lineup options.Read the full definition of Classic Contests be looking over on dfsos.com you guys can use promo code ship it there if you want to get fifty percent off it works out to about a dollar a day you'll see all the tools when we go through the show Got my guy, Matty Belman here with me as usual.

0:59

Going to be breaking down the Mills Makers from yesterday and then any of your questions in the chat. We always do like a little motivational Monday, mastermind Monday, Monday mindset, whatever you want to call it. We were talking some stuff pre-show, but it was a huge week for the Ship It Nation community. So that's where the conversation started and stemmed from. We'll get to that in a minute. But Mr. Belman, what is going on, my friend? Monday morning, Matt, what's happening?

1:21

Nothing, man. You know, regular stuff on a Monday morning. Happy to be here with you talking the week six breakdown. It feels just bizarre. We're already in week six. But here we are. We got one more game tonight, which should be, I think, interesting. Yesterday was not my best day in the DFS streets, but it's going to happen. You know, sometimes you're right and sometimes you're not. And yesterday was definitely a not for me. That said, it was a weird SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate.

1:48

They all are. Some guys you thought were no doubt smash plays didn't smash, and other guys that people weren't really on had good weeks. It feels like that's just DFS in a nutshell, but happy to be on here talking it out with you. How's everything going? Yeah, good, man. I was shaking your hand. What is it, the handshake you do, the air shake between the not a great day yesterday? It was awesome to see so many members get the job done.

2:12

I consistently have good cores, at least, over on the site and thoughts of where I'm starting and where I'm at. They just haven't fully come through for me yet. But I still, like you said, we've got one more game tonight. You know, we're always talking about this. Nades and I've been doing this show for years, talking about how it's, it's only been a, if it's been a rough week for you, it's only been a rough week so far.

2:29

We still have tonight to finish out week six, but I wanted to hit my goal, which was to win something big before week seven. Now, mind you, the good news is for me, week seven is coming right up next week. They've got the mid season main event, the hundred, it's the mid season warmup.

2:45

Should say in week seven which is the hundred and fifty dollar buy-in milli in a smaller field so I'm excited about that and then the week after that November first to kick off the month of November they've got the mid-season main event fifteen hundred dollar buy-in one point five million to first insane prizes at the top of that so gonna do my best to get into um as many of those lineups as I can now I brought that up because the Ship It Nation community had a pretty big day.

3:09

I didn't have it fully prepped and ready, but I've got some of it here so you guys can check it out. But the reason I bring this up is because our man Rick here... I got a few shout-outs with this, but the big one, Max's Soda, we'll get to in a second. But with Rick... Rick shipped the luxury box for $15,000. He also said just you guys know it's never over till it's I mean, we're just getting started. We say it's six weeks in.

3:30

It's one third, et cetera, et cetera. The eighteen game regular season. But that's a ton of SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. Thanksgiving, all the different ones that we'll have on top. He said been a tough start to the season. This one feels good. Tambo, would you like to donate a fifteen hundred? I would like to donate a fifteen hundred dollar ticket for the November first tournament he's talking about. So this week, what is special is in our Ship It Games contest. We have it every week.

3:54

You just have to be an all access or an NFL only member. It's the community contest. No other community is giving money away like this. And then you got a guy like Rick from the community coming up over top, dropping a fifteen hundred dollar ticket.

4:05

So this week, the Golden Shipper, not only will the top three get into the Golden Ship at finals and have the round one of the finals, have a chance to play to get into the top ten where you'll play for up to $12,000 in cash, but twelve hundred minimum. So similar prize pool. But they will. The winner of this week's Golden Shipper will also get a fifteen hundred dollar ticket to play in that midseason main event, courtesy of our man Rick.

4:32

So shout out to Rick. Love to see that. That's the community love we're always trying to show off there. We're giving away $50,000. Our guy Sharks just put up $4,800. That was amazing. We talked through that. And now you got Rick throwing up a fifteen hundred dollar ticket. But here were some of the other ones right here, Belman. We had Max Soda. I talked about off the top. Three tickets plays about two hundred bucks a week or less.

4:51

He was just posting in the Discord this morning about being disciplined and going back to playing the same hundred $5,200 bucks that he usually plays in a week. I told him he could treat himself a little bit, but you want to pick your spots for that. But anyway, turn the three tickets into $50,000 $52,000 to be exact and had a real shot at the Mills. We were sweating with him in the Discord. No salt and wound.

5:12

We don't control the events or the outcomes. But that Tucker touchdown at the very end did not help his case. Again, turning those tickets from something to nothing in the fifty $2,000. Congrats to you. Still a phenomenal job. Our guy Tom Brady is gray. Ship the face mask for $50,000. And then T. Jones shipped the stiff arm for five hundred bucks in the $10,000 as well. So it was a pretty huge week for the community. Any any first thoughts on that?

5:36

We really love to see it. Yeah, massive week for the community. Really wanted that Milly Maker win. But as you said, we don't control the outcomes. It's out of our control at that point. I thought it was going to be taken home. The DFS NFL gods had other ideas. And hopefully next week is his week because clearly his process is on point right now. My other thought is you mentioning your success going into, or lack thereof, I should say, going into week seven.

6:01

But I feel like last year, week seven, you had a monster week. Because I feel like you talked about this, and then we let up with it. And then as soon as week seven had you in a monster, yeah, so there it is. Yeah, I got to win the warmup event to get the Mills and then have even more tickets to attack the following and go back to back.

6:17

What a legacy piece it would be to go never win the Mills, talk about it for years since way back in the day. And then I go on to win back to back Millies. That's the hope. But I promise you, I would just take one. So it's just a thing I want to check off at this point, but I'm having a lot of fun doing what I get to do. I love all you guys and your support. I do appreciate it.

6:35

Just getting to hop on here, hang out with you on a Monday and talk through this is one of the most fun parts of my week. Just going to see all this stuff. This is another fun part. Rick had said, appreciate all the tools you guys talked about. Blickle, Mayo, myself, Ship It Nation as a whole said you guys are hands down the best in the DFS streets. Thanks for all you do.

6:51

He had posted this before he's a member over at dfsmastermind.com he's also in the mentorship program with me and he said for anyone that wants to get better at DFS DFS Mastermind is the only way to go In one year, I have had five, $20,000 plus scores. This stacks another on. I think there was a $50,000 before this as well. So he said seven now, five figure scores. And there's no promises.

7:11

It's just to know when you do put your head down, put the work in, aim to actually get better at something. You can do that. And he says before that, I had zero taught me process, Bankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Read the full definition of Bankroll Management, contest selection and more. Don't wait. Sign up today. I mean, I said it here. If you're not a member, I'm not sure what you're up to. If you guys haven't seen DFS Mastermind dot com, you can just click join today.

7:30

Even if you only spend less than a fifty dollar Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry and get in one time the DFS mind map one and two is two hundred fifty plus DFS players wrote me and said what they wanted me to create now in less than a nine to five shift basically eight hours you can take in the two modules and if you don't know what those look like if you're behind the scenes over at dfsmastermind.com you can see they cover exactly what rick said there's the secrets of satellites look at maxisota turning satellite tickets into $52,000 and now back down to playing one hundred sixty bucks.

8:00

So if you're playing even one hundred bucks a week, two hundred bucks a week, I talk about treating DFS like a business. This is a business decision.

8:08

You can go and get training and get better and find this stuff out and jump over some of the hoops that you might be struggling with just in the fifty dollar courses and then if you get in the full one-time membership you can get access to all of this stuff right the modules the interviews you're in here Belman we we did an interview you and I right we broke it down everything that you talked about with building good lineups and not just the plays MLB DFS process um important to get better all that stuff that we actually talked about in our interview you guys can go and check it out But I digress.

8:39

We'll get into it for this week, man. Let's look at these Milly winners. We are using DFSOS.com. This lets you see how the best DFS players actually play. If you go into Dashboard and you're a member, like I said, you can get in for twenty nine bucks a month with code SHIPIT. And somebody asked in our Discord, oh, I want a bankroll tracker. Most bankroll trackers charge twenty nine bucks a month. You get that.

8:59

You can find out the perfect lineup, which we're going to look at here first. Right. You'll be able to see it. So this is the past Sunday. We're going to the eighteenth here. My bad. Let's go to the. Where's the main SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate? I'm blind today. Sorry, Monday morning, you guys can tell, but here it is. The perfect lineup was one that didn't spend it all for once.

9:20

That's the thing about yesterday's slate when you had, let's just talk about the grand scheme overview of the slate for a second, Belman. Everybody missed, right? Bijan missed, Puka missed, Bowers missed. Somebody said in the afternoon, they're like, I had Stafford, Puka, Adams, Bowers and something else. And I think they got more points off of somebody that scored like fifteen points before the late game stuff. I mean, that was at the halftime. But still, I was like, man, this is nuts right now.

9:46

But what do you think of the slate as a whole yesterday and how it played out? Yeah, I often talk about how slates can play out weird and this is a perfect example of it. We might not have another one all year that plays out as funky as this one did with you mentioned it like Bijan and Puka both failing in elite spots. That might be a once in a season type occurrence.

10:06

Not that they're both always going to smash, but the fact that they both outright failed. I know Puka got there a little bit, got some PPR cookies at the end, but really didn't matter. I mean, he was so high-owned, and winners didn't have him. So... Just bizarre turnouts yesterday. And it goes to your point. Like whenever you see an optimal lineup like this or a perfect lineup, I should say that is, you know, $2,400 less than full salary. You know that stuff played out funky.

10:36

You got really low on guys. Omar Cooper, when Titans D is the highest scoring D on the slate at $2,300. Shout out my guy Ham, who liked them a lot, called them out on ContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Read the full definition of Contrarian construction show. You know, you know, the slate was bizarre. You might be on mute. You got her. You got her. I haven't done that in a while. So, again, you can tell Monday morning, feeling it here. Really, really doing good stuff.

11:13

But just noting it, I was saying about the Titans D. Ed Soham did have it pegged there. But the note was, too, nobody was really playing any – Jonathan Taylor, for the most part, right? Like people did, but we'll get to that in a second with the Kenneth Walker stuff and the Bijan stuff and LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage and things that you could have done or pivots, I should say, in those spots. But just noting it, they were sandwiched.

11:34

The Titans were right between the popular Panthers and the popular Jets.

11:39

Down low but you could play the Titans and you weren't really again look I know with the war news late a lot of people got to like a Keenan Allen and certain things like that and there's some danny jones chalk or sorry steam down the stretch and whatnot but even then if danny jones is going to pick up any steam how about the defense against that so it ended up working out for those people that did that and then the same on FanDuel title talked about it yesterday on the Sunday shipper show The Buccaneers were $3,200 and they did OK.

12:06

I think they got seven points on FanDuel or eight points. They had a lot of sacks and different stuff going for them. But Aaron Rodgers with the comeback and the Jeremy Bernard touchdown late and got the win and all of that. But in the end, they were a hundred bucks less over there as well to go to Tennessee Titans. So sometimes just seeing where you're at, making that pivot, especially on something like a defense. Definitely an interesting thing to find there.

12:28

Not something that I think you're going to pull away. Heavily or anything like crazy about this. Just noting that defense being one, the bigger standout for me though, was kind of what people said about Kenneth Walker all week. They said, Kenneth Walker and JT are just sitting there right underneath Bijan.

12:44

And we know Bijan's getting the steam and Bijan's getting the OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership and for whatever reason, you know, people are excited about it and all this stuff is like, we know why the opportunities, the spot at home, like everything was good for Bijan, but that was all baked into it. It had the ownership and all that.

12:58

But even yesterday I kept talking about, I said, even some of those Caleb lineups, I liked Caleb, Rome, Loveland, with like a London by the way that didn't work out and then you could plug in like a walker and I said there's gonna be people just sitting there with no bijan and if he busts they're gonna feel so good sitting there with walker and again not knowing if he put up this result that he did it's just when big chalk busts how good does it feel to have the guy sitting right there that you like can really break this thing open and that's what happened with kenneth walker yesterday right That's exactly what happened.

13:32

And as you mentioned, it was talked about all week. I talked about it a lot. Still didn't play enough of him. I mean, kind of how the cookie crumbles. There's so many good plays on any given SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. And I will say, peeling the onion a little bit here. The thing that really stands out to me with the perfect lineup is you've got Saints quarterback with no other Saints, and you've got two runbacks.

13:56

So you've got two Giants weapons with no quarterback opposite the Saints quarterback with no weapons. Just bizarre turnout. You know what I mean?

14:04

Yeah no it's it's typically so first of all like that is the thing I know uh speaking of our guy earlier he's got a lot of really good Roster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Read the full definition of Roster Construction data and one of the things he's seen that actually is profitable over time surprisingly enough uh for most at least it shocked me a little bit was playing a quarterback with two runbacks from the other side now it's Right, but let me get to it.

14:27

It's more profitable if you play Shuck with one and then two runbacks versus the, you know, everybody plays the obvious. Nabers, sorry, they'll play Winston, Nabers, Likely Olave. That's the most common and we get that and that does show up a lot because everybody plays. He's just saying it's when you see stuff like this, it could have been, and again, Olave didn't have the biggest day, just noting it.

14:49

If you had went like shuck Olave Nabers Likely because you just like that side better. Most would go Winston there and I get it, but it's, it's a way you could do it to end up on it. And sometimes it's because like one team is really locked in on a guy like, um, Gino Smith, Garrett Wilson could be a thing that you just play or like Joe Burrow and one of his expensive guys.

15:11

Cause you just don't want to pay them both off, but then you pick up a running back and a wide receiver in the other game or sorry, the other side of that game, because you think that that can come through. Now the weird part about yesterday and how it worked out, By the way, pretty incredible stuff just from a football perspective was J.J. McCarthy gets into the game. And then I believe I could be way wrong.

15:32

You guys know I'm off this morning a little bit. But just say I think it was two hundred and forty three or two hundred and thirty four yards in the in the end of the game. Was it just the fourth quarter or what? What was the breakdown? It was very insane. And somebody posted all the clips together this morning was like, this is actually pretty wild on tape. Look, it's the Saints, whatever you want to say.

15:49

I don't care, but man, he was doing his thing out there, whipping it around and slinging it. And everyone was coming through for him. So who knows what we see moving forward. But I thought that was kind of crazy how he got all these guys to their scores in the end with Nabers and Likely and everything they ended up putting up. Yeah, Nabers is a dude and Likely obviously has a really good connection with both quarterbacks, it seems. But that McCarthy game was wild.

16:12

I think you were right on the money. Two forty something just in the fourth quarter, a Giants record. I mean, rare to see rarefied air. I wonder if he is going to be their starter moving forward. Wouldn't be surprised if that happens sooner rather than later. Yeah, I don't know what the latest is. If I go over, we can check it after. But there's a news section here that I can just pull it up.

16:34

I want to finish with this one quickly, though. But Bernard came through, even as popular as he was, Likely came through as popular as he was. Nabers came through. The rest, though, in this, and even when we get to the Milly Maker winning lineup, you'll see a little bit weird there as well. But that's the type of weeks we see. So that's the type of things we see when we see weeks like this. Better way to word it. So anything else when it comes to this?

16:58

Just all I'm noting is, like you said, when you see forty seven six to your point, you know, it was a bit of a wonky week. Also, two thirty six in the optimal. Let's see what we see when we move over. But anything else to add just from this perspective or anything else you want to talk about here? Just if you look even farther down at like the next five optimal lineups, they're all basically the same except for, you know, pits instead of Likely.

17:21

So like the wide receivers are constant. Shuck is a constant. And yeah, it's always fun. And, you know, you wish hindsight were, well, hindsight is twenty twenty. We wish we had this vision before the SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate starts, but all we can do is learn from it going forward. Yeah, and that's what I wanted to point out too. Again, people always say, why do you even look at this? It's the perfect line. It doesn't matter.

17:46

We're just looking for little things and how it affected the slate, thoughts that you could think about. I mentioned a million times when we get new viewers each week, a lot of people are just building by hand and they're building ten, twenty or less lineups. So a couple notes on that.

18:00

One, These types of ideas are like, hey, if I land on, again, this is not even close to maxed out salary, but if you were hand building yesterday and you landed on $2,300 bucks, you don't always just have to play the Jets because everyone says they're the best play at $2,200 and leave a hundred dollars. You could play the Titans and say, well, I'm not on Danny Jones. I'm not on Jonathan Taylor. I'm not really worried about that offense.

18:23

And that's how you could just land on something like this. It's defense defense. Let's get something with some VarianceIn NFL DFS, touchdowns can create large scoring swings without much change in touches or targets. With each team usually playing once per week, you also get relatively few games to judge a player's results within one season.Track results by contest type and slate, and review opportunity separately from touchdowns or other rare scoring events. Entering the same lineup in ten contests does not give you ten independent performance samples.Read the full definition of Variance in there and take a risk. I'll play the Titans instead. That's how you could end up on that. I had somebody DM me this morning that said, actually, I did all right this week because I ended up on a bunch of Titans D. I just didn't like the other cheap chalk defenses with the Jets and the Panthers. And I said, okay, so that makes sense.

18:44

And then two, Over at Ship It Nation, if you haven't seen it yet, we talk about it, but some people don't even know what it is, the Stone 2.0. We did make it now. So not only about all the Ship It Games and the extra stuff, but for our favorite hand builders out there, you now have a tool where you can actually go in and see the optimal rates, see the OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership, see the ProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections, see everything.

19:06

You can optimize the lineup and say, okay, it's a hundred and fifty four. Point four points. And this is what the lineup looks like. And then you can clear it and go back and say, now I want to build something a little bit different. I want to see what the Caleb lineup looks like. And in my Caleb lineup, I'm going to fade Bijan, but I'm going to play Kenneth Walker, like Tambo talked about.

19:26

I'll leave Kyron out for now because he liked Corum. But I'm definitely interested in Burden. I like Odunze. I like Loveland. And I'm just going to use up all my wide receiver spots. Sorry, Loveland. And I'm going to use up all my wide receiver spots with London. What does that leave me? Okay, I got $4,500 bucks. Now I'm going to look at a defense and see what I think there. So let's say I go with. I'm not playing. Who am I not playing?

19:54

I'm not playing Likely or Nabers. Why don't I just go with the Saints D there? They have a good optimal rate and they're the highest optimal. They're still good on the optimal rates, but there's no negative LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage there. Maybe I'll plug them in. Now I've got fifty five fifty to compare. I got to play at least one running back. I liked what they said about Chubb Hubbard. All right. That leaves me $4,800 bucks. I can play.

20:16

I'm not you know, I'm on the Saints D. I can play Algier. Get none of this fully worked out. I'm just saying you can start looking at your lineups and seeing what they would look like and pull them in. You can save them as well. And then they'll show up in your saved lineups and then you can even download the CSV and take it right over. So even for the hand builders, we've got something for you covered there. So let's go back.

20:39

Let's quickly see the news. Is there any news yet on McCarthy? I just want to see. The latest was three hours ago. Just the one-stop shop you have on DFS OS is so nice. I use it for everything now for that. I don't even use it for everything you're supposed to or probably use it for, but for me to have it all in one place, I really love that.

21:00

And we'll get into it more when we break down how you can actually use the, the tagline or the headline of like, you'll see what the other DFS best player, best DFS players are doing, but I'm just trying to see right now. So when would he start the process of deciding what, Looks like John Harbaugh now has a decision to make, declined to name a starter after the game. Nine questions later, his tone had slightly shifted, shifted slightly.

21:23

When would he start the process of deciding whether to change quarterbacks? Starts right now, he said. So we'll see. McCarthy said they can trust me, et cetera, et cetera. Let's go to the SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate review, though. And it's DraftKings or FanDuel. That's another thing about DFSOS is it does have the stuff for FanDuel. But we're looking at DraftKings here. Loaded up for yesterday. We will go to the twenty dollar Milly Maker and it was C Maximus.

21:48

I'm going to open this in a new tab because we can look here at all the winners and see those that made it to the top. But if you just want to see and dig in. I will share this, and it will show that C. Maximus played. Seventeen lineups. Eleven out of seventeen cashed. The average score was one fifty-one. Spent the salary in pretty much every lineup, so maybe left a hundred bucks in one or something. Used thirty-one unique players.

22:12

You can see who his most exposed were and what he had against The FieldThe field is everyone else entered in a contest, the group of lineups you are competing against.Before you build, picture the typical lineup in your contest. Then decide on purpose where you'll match it and where you'll step away from it.Read the full definition of The Field. Kenneth Walker, eighty-two percent versus the field twenty-three. People Late SwapIn NFL contests with late swap, you can change unlocked afternoon or evening players after earlier games begin. Only games included in that contest's player pool are available.Before the first games lock, identify affordable backup combinations for your later players. Check that each combination fits the open positions, then confirm your saved changes in every affected entry.Read the full definition of Late Swap to Kenneth Walker as well, obviously. Chiefs. Wow. Seventy percent Chiefs D who are five OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. Right. Huge delta there. So you can just see who he was overweight on. And you can also see who he was UnderweightYou are underweight in DFS when a player, team stack or lineup combination appears in a smaller percentage of your entries than in the contest field's entries.Compare the same contest, format and roster slot. Use projected ownership before lock, then check actual ownership afterward to see whether your intended underweight stance held.Read the full definition of Underweight on. He wasn't really underweight on much. Right. A little underweight on Coker.

22:38

I mean, on Mixon matters on Stafford matters for sure. So I guess that's where you could see it. But you can see all of that. You can see his flex usage. And no, this is the winner. This is the other thing, Melvin. You talked about DFSOS and how valuable it is. The main thing that people say is like, oh, especially with this winner, people are going to say Penix naked and blah, blah, blah, and all this stuff.

23:00

But they say, okay, well, you should look at the best players. All right. If you think Uticao or Machlovin or whatever you want to go look at, you can go look at them. They're on here, right? You would just go back to SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate review. You would go to player profiles and you would just, boom, Uticao's right there. Then you can go down and say, okay, I want to look at you to cow for NFL view details. All right.

23:22

I want to go and see by it's already by date. So what did he play yesterday? What did he win? Let's see. You know, it could have been a rough day for the pros yesterday. Probably was knowing that the Milly Maker, I want to see him what he played there. All right. He was in, again, he wins a bunch of tickets, so don't take the money in versus money out.

23:38

That's why when these sites are doing, by the way, there's knockoff sites out there doing like P&Ls for players, missing thousands and thousands of contest results, and then trying to talk about it like it's their profit and loss statement. Missing. Million dollar scores and all these different tournaments they play. And this is just tracking and just saying the truth. Like, you know, it's tracking what can be found. It doesn't mean everything is on there.

23:58

So take it with a grain of salt for the ultimate number, but at least lets you look in when you talk to players who know who the good players are and say, Hey, I'd be looking at how does you to cow treat a one fifty portfolio, right? Even in a losing week, how did he treat his portfolio? I can see who he was most exposed to yesterday and Feel bad about playing Bijan and Puka? You shouldn't.

24:19

The best DFS player in the world was playing half of his lineups on those two players because you could yesterday and was getting different elsewhere. So think about that when you're looking into it, but you can definitely dive in to other people's player pools. Let's go back to... C Maximus, congrats on the million dollars. This was their winning lineup, Belman. I'll let you dissect it here and break it down, but not two hundred and thirty six point six.

24:41

So even in that lineup earlier, somebody could have got to like a Puka or a Bijan and still won. It's just they wouldn't have had like Omar Cooper or whatever, whoever they had in there, like whatever that perfect lineup was. But this is the lineup. Penix, Swift, Hubbard. Malik Nabers were a big chief savvy, Worthy Walker Chiefs, and then Likely and Bernard. So I think a lot of people are thinking like Penix, no Winston, et cetera, et cetera.

25:09

But give me your thoughts here on this one. Let's break it down. It's so first thought is it's so funny when we go from the perfect lineup to the actual winning lineup, when it's dissimilar, which isn't that often, but this time it is, it's not that similar. And it's like, man, you look at the winning lineup even, and you're like, there's a lot of room for improvement here.

25:29

Just because the only reason I say that is because we looked at the perfect lineup before that. And The perfect lineup is almost always going to be unattainable. So we know that when you take a look at this lineup and dissect it, I think the Chiefs heavy is the first thing I noticed. And when you look at his portfolio, he was heavy on the Chiefs. Makes sense.

25:47

The other thing for me is, yeah, people might quibble at, you know, PennX naked, but he was cheap and it allowed him to get to the best plays on the SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate and it's just a combination of really, really good plays. Not even guys that were necessarily LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage except for Penix and the Chiefs, but he put them together in a really nice way. So not much to say, except a lot of good plays put together. Yeah, I agree.

26:16

And I think this is important to look at. Like some people don't fully dig in and that's why it does look like it's interesting, but it does look like he had some thought process here. Like look at his second best entry. Swift, Hubbard. It's like the connect the dots you used to do in the thing, like drawing lines. Nabers, Worthy, Bernard, Likely, Walker. I'm guessing based on price. I didn't fully look it up here, but...

26:43

Don't see the price on the difference, but $50,000, $50,000 max spend. If I recall correctly, Chiefs were $3,600 and Patriots were $3,000. So I'm assuming Penix was I can go back. Actually, we have it right here because we were just on the stone. I go back here. Well, it's the only difference there. Jameis and Patriots versus Penix and Chiefs. And I'm assuming that was the six hundred bucks, right? Yeah, it had to be $5,000. And what's James?

27:12

James is fifty one. Oh, was it thirty six and thirty five? Yeah, sorry. Thirty six and thirty five on the defenses. I was wrong again. So just noting that that is the only difference. So he made a two V two swap in his own portfolio. Right. So he had the lineup you're expecting him to have and then said, I want this. So I'm going to get it in a different way. I mean, does it mean it's right? I don't like it.

27:35

It doesn't matter. It's right. Won the money. My point is there's method to his madness. It's not just random. Here's another one. Uh, same, same, same, same, same, same three V three off of that. Panics with London this time with Nabers, with Likely a little bit different, but had Swift still got to some of these other guys went to the, um, Vegas spot instead of the chief spot in this one here, he blended it up a little bit different. Again, he had Winston Nabers Likely.

28:08

So that's my point. I'm not going to go through all of them, but I guess, um, The point is, yeah, it is, like Aaron says, it is a two-v-two, as I'm saying. So this is what happens, right? People see this, immediately you see the post on X, and people shitting on the guy, be like, wow, Penix naked, what a loser. How did he actually play this lineup? Well, first of all, he's not a loser.

28:26

He's the max winner with one million dollars on that tournament. Second of all, it's like the lineup you wanted him to play because it just makes your brain feel better, he had it. So he did play it. He just didn't stop there, and he was willing to risk the additional to say, I'm going to play this in two ways and hopefully one of them gets there. Maybe I come one too. That was possible the way this played.

28:47

So whatever people say about conventional strategy and all of that, it's really hard to talk about it when it's literally right there. Benefit of having something like this to be able to look into it a little bit further. It's right here underneath it. The exact line that you think is proper that you wanted him to play. By the way, if he only plays your lineup, he's got two hundred bucks instead of one million dollars.

29:07

So think about that when you're thinking about criticizing other people's lineups for those that do it out there. I know a lot of people look at it and just say what some idiot got lucky again. Maybe maybe that's how you feel. Maybe that's what it is. But at the end of the day, they've got a million dollars more and they did have a method to their madness. I will say that. Yeah, absolutely.

29:24

I mean, and any given day, you know, DFS, any sport outcome is, is lucky, but putting yourself in the position is, is not luck. So for me, it just, yeah, man, I think you said it best when you talked about, you know, the lineup that people wanted him to play, he had, and it falls into what I always talk about in DFS DFS. To win tournaments, you need outlier results.

29:51

You don't want to be on an island and play all one percent guys just to be on the island. So you're by yourself, but you need outlier results to win tournaments. Look at the Showdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Read the full definition of Showdown last night. I can't remember what the exact swap was, but I finished in one of my lineups in a big chop for third. And I know in a lot of contests, people had that lineup. Two people chopped for first, and it was just one swap off.

30:15

Well, they had Dickens instead of you guys had Jack. And Coach Main, who's awesome over at ETR, puts out a ton of good content when it relates to Showdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Read the full definition of Showdown content and stuff like that. He said that it's like a one percentile outcome since $2,000... The year, $2,000 or so. No, sorry. Since $2,000 twenty. Apologies. Off by twenty years. Let us get twenty years back right quick, Belman, and reset. But you get the point.

30:40

It was it was it was Lamb, Pickens, Flournoy and somebody else in the in the flex with no deck. That's why. So yes, very rare outcome. But the other side of that is that the lineup that you would expect that should have the right outcome was duped fifty times. So, you know, the people that, you know, again, I'm sure they were all simulated lineups, et cetera, but that had that one percent out got paid off in a big way.

31:06

And that's all you can ask for a DFS. A hundred percent. And you said it best, but again, that's unconventional. Cause you say like one, like again, it happens one point two nine percent of the time or whatever Cody posted this morning. I like his tidbits when he posts about that stuff for showdown specifically, but I don't know. Like the main thing is, is when you look at that though, it's what you said. It's like, how often will it pay off?

31:27

It's like title says, you know, not how often you're right. It's how much you win when you are right. Well, it paid off for those guys that had that built into their pool. They're playing for lineups like that. And I do as well. I had a lineup that finished seven hundred thirty eight. I believe it was unique. But it was the same as your lineup. But instead of Pierce Strong, I believe you had in your lineup, right?

31:48

With twelve point seven or eleven point seven or whatever he had. I had the exact same lineup as you, but instead of him, I had Brevin Spanford and Brevin Spanford was six hundred dollars. Pierre Strong. You were by yourself. One was twenty four percent off. And used the money, more money, not all, but it like used more money. And I had the one underneath for six hundred dollars instead of $3,000. He still fit with Dak. I had Dak with you, by the way.

32:12

I wasn't on this crazy Pickens with no debt with Pickens, Lamb, et cetera, with no Dak, but Flournoy and him. So he still had seven point seven points or something at six hundred dollars. And he missed by those four points. But the point being, it's like that's that line of had it have got there and maybe a little more points his way versus somebody else could have put me up the board that way.

32:32

So that's why close closing we talked about that last week but that's the point and and playing to win it all in showdown but a lot of showdown winners last night you guys were very close again I would have so much rather had your lineup than the lineup I had you know I mean obviously the pickings lineup clearly because that won it but even your lineup like I'd much rather have the position to be solo first which I would presume yours was you know one two three Person as much lower for sure It had to have been much lower.

32:59

I mean, you're putting yourself, I mean, like you said, like it's not even like Spanford failed. It was just that Strong had a really good performance. Really strong performance, you could say, Belman. You're on a show with me, man. You got to do it. Um, yeah, no, you nailed it. And again, it's, it's not like a knock.

33:18

You got, everyone was up there, a bunch of, you know, Ship It Nation crew, like a lot of people, it's all just, and I think it's actually, um, the way I'm seeing it now and even adapting some of my own stuff, just a side Tambo tangent on the showdown streets. I have to adapt some of my portfolio to more lineups like yours because while it was duped more. The chop would have still been nice if you got all the way to the top.

33:39

It's just the problem is when you come in third for that chop, that's where the problem lies, right? When it's five hundred and thirty six dollars, that's not going to make... I'll take fifty bucks and my shot. It's not factual. Like, obviously, I would much rather have five hundred and thirty six dollars than fifty dollars. But I'm saying we don't control that until the end of the SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. I would have...

33:56

If we knew going in, I still want my shot for five hundred thousand or sorry, two hundred and $50,000 versus the five thirty six versus the fifty versus the two hundred $50,000 versus the whatever it would have been like $10,000 $8,000. I don't know what it still would have been decent, but it wouldn't have been as much as what I was trying to play for. So that's all.

34:15

But it's so funny you say that, though, because just real quick, because I'm on the other side and I love showdown because it's one of the only sports I play one fifty and I really dive into it. And I'm over here thinking like I need to not overall, but adjust my process a little bit. So I get more lineups like your lineup and the Pickens lineup. Now, again, to your point, like my lineup was I had a much higher chance of being optimal.

34:38

And the fact that it got third really screwed it. But even in first there, yeah, it's a nice night, but it's not. Like we just said, it's about how much you make when you get to the top. So this is always fun to talk about.

34:51

That's why I think people like it when we go through it back and forth it's also it depends on the player it's the oh the risk adversity um how much are you playing annually and what you're putting in and into these showdown slates it's like uh you know if I'm putting in two grand and a showdown slate then I can't just win five grand yeah I can and that's going to be profitable and it's like great but what's that going to be another slate and a half like if I win two hundred $50,000 we're talking business now right it's a hundred more plus right yeah that you're now getting in on action for.

35:18

You're getting back some of the losses and then playing a hundred more slates at $2,000 a piece, et cetera, et cetera. And if you keep playing like that and stack a couple of them, that's a game changer and just huge ROI, massive upside for the season. Most people look at it and say, well, man, I'm playing a hundred bucks a night. If I can win five grand on that, that's massive. It is.

35:37

So that's why, like Belman said, it's definitely the more optimal lineup or more Likely, sorry, to be more optimal. Higher odds of that. But now with how many people are finding that and getting to the chops and having all that stuff, I just, I have to play on the opposite side. But I'm speaking also to, if you have a portfolio that you can diversify with, I can easily play a hundred lineups or a hundred and fifteen lineups my way.

35:59

And still have thirty to fifty line up thirty five to fifty lines hundred one fifteen the other way and play it more for like some of those where it's like oh yeah it's going to be a you know twenty five to fifty way chop but at least get some of those into my portfolio I prefer usually not to spend as much capital on doing that and just hope to have more lineups of the other outcome but I am thinking about it at least with my process looking at that so Speaking of looking at that, let's look at the other big winners yesterday.

36:27

So let's go to the $555. By the way, I think it's right here. Let's give our guy a little love. Will he make the names? No, sorry, man. Too many names made it, and only the top twenty get shown. So the other eighteen, they didn't include you. But this was your lineup. To your point of what you were just talking about, let me bring it over.

36:48

Last night, it was IMPGM, Been Around Forever, Crushes Across Multiple Sports, and Ali Bumai, who had the forty-eight point $4,000 lineup that substituted in What was it in the end? It was George Pickens. You were right, Pickens, for Prescott. For Dak. And so it had Lamb captain, no Prescott, George Pickens, Flournoy, and then it had the other side, Love, Golden, Strong. Made a bunch of sense. Left a bunch of money. The part people would struggle with is they had the money to spend.

37:19

The other thing, too, Dallas lost by ten, and you still needed a Dallas captain, three-three. That happens too. Yes, exactly. I think we had this conversation before about the, um, super bowl last year when our guy title won the hundred and seventeen K or maybe it was the year before last year, I should say, but it was with, uh, Xavier Worthy captain. I think it was my homes in flex.

37:39

Anyways, a two, four, basically it was a two, uh, Kansas City got blown out by the Eagles and it was Worthy captain with one more chief and then four Eagles in the flex, even though it was a blowout for the Eagles. It just happens. And that's the thing about, that's why I like this game. But yeah, anytime it's a $50,000 at a $50,000 lineup, you're going to see a lot of chops. Big difference between five hundred sixty $8,000 and the top.

38:00

But again, who would know? And it's all built in a in an OptimizerAn optimizer is software that builds DFS lineups within a site's salary cap and roster rules. It uses projected fantasy points, your settings and, in some tools, simulations to select combinations for a chosen goal.Build a small test batch first. Check which players and combinations repeat, and investigate why before increasing the lineup count or changing settings.Read the full definition of Optimizer anyway for that perspective. But I digress. Let's move on to the. So this was crazy. Dave Alpha. Dave A-L-F-A. And we'll pull this up in a second. I had two entries in this one, but it's not even about that. Let me go back here. Let's go to this tab. Like I said, you can literally use it for anything.

38:24

I don't know what else to tell people, but I'm using it for everything that I need it for. If you go to player profiles, let's go to Dave Alpha. This is nuts. So you go to NFL. And let's just do, it's by date, but I want to do it by winnings because the Mills will come up first. Note the date. Let's just scroll up. Here's the eleventh of October. No crazy wins that I'm seeing here for October.

38:57

But just noting this, let's scroll up past. The eleventh was the Wildcat where he won twelve fifty last week before this. Now let's go to the eighteenth and see what he won yesterday.

39:09

Million dollars plus on two entries in the $555 had one of those same entries pick the right one everywhere else because look Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry five max but played one thirty one eighty is the the one entry what else the single entry game changer like this is crazy Not only do you win the Mills. Holy shit. You pick the one of the two lineups that is the nuts everywhere. I know he won a live final seat in the four night.

39:37

So yeah, he got this one point two, three, four, five, one point five closer to one point six because this is $20,000 guaranteed. So about one point $6,000 and the upside of the live final in there as well. So that's a crazy day. For Dave Alpha. And that's why you can see it here. You know, this was our guy, MSP Maxisoda in the Discord that was up there.

40:01

But if you go over to his tab and the two lineups he played, it was one ninety two. The good news is, though, I mean, I don't know how good the one seventy six would probably still would have done pretty good. But this was the lineups very similar to our guy from before. Jeremy is different. Goedert is same. Tucker. So what is it, Jeremy? For Bourne? Yeah, it is. Jeremy for Bourne.

40:29

One V one in the $555, but then played it for the right version of it for the extra points of Bernard's twenty five point seven versus Bourne in everything else that he played. So pretty, pretty wild. Still cash this one. We'll look at it in a second. But give me your take on this lineup. It's a Cousins with Tucker. It's got James Cook on the Bring-BackIn the NFL, a bring-back is usually a wide receiver, tight end or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back. It's got Drake London. It's got Kenneth Walker.

40:57

So London playing Walker instead of Bijan, playing London instead of Bijan, et cetera, et cetera. It's kind of like a double whammy there. It's got Nabers. It's got the Buccaneers defense against Jeremy Bernard too. Another thing that people say you can't do. Yeah. I mean, I'm still just in awe of his overall day yesterday, taking down just every single contest he entered and some big boy stuff too. So congrats to him. I mean, all on a last second Tucker touchdown, that is the DFS dream of a sweat.

41:27

So big shout outs there. I mean, it doesn't get any better. And yeah, Yeah, he played those two lineups, both Vegas stacks. Tucker was obviously monstrous, and he didn't play Bowers, who, as you mentioned at the beginning, was another guy who failed at pretty high OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. He was like twenty five percent on twenty two, I think, in this tournament. So got off that play. Tucker instead, who is way cheaper, got to two expensive running backs. Who weren't highly owned, didn't have Bijan or Puka.

41:55

For me, this lineup is more about who he didn't play than who he did play. And not playing Bijan or Puka, open him up everywhere else. Like the London not succeeding didn't really matter because he didn't have the two main guys who failed. Throw in Bowers and the three main guys. So yeah, man, congrats. Hell of a day. Yeah, that's crazy. I was just doing some research and moving around here. First off, Aaron said Trey Tucker is sure showing up for a lot of hoops.

42:21

It's not like the Cooper play. No one's going to land on that. If you don't find that, you're not hurt. Point zero two percent or something. No one's going to have him in the right spot anyway if they have him. But Trey Tucker was showing up because that game was a great spot in the afternoon. He was a great value that you could use there with you know, James Cook or in the cousin stacks or whatever it might be. It's just how you played him.

42:43

But man, shout out to our guy. Tom Brady is gray was hiding. I only saw the $50,000 score in the face mask. He had $100,000 in this luxury box and another $50,000 is over $200,000 at least for him as well. But Dave Alpha is Just to show you, the reason I looked this up is you saw his other lineup was one seventy six. Right. That would have been third for $70,000 instead of $200,000 in this.

43:10

If you go to the power sweep, it would have been this just a selection process. Right. He obviously liked that one better. But just noting it, it's interesting. The reason I bring it up is so wouldn't even a top twenty in the hundred fifty dollar. And the reason I bring this up, it's not even it's just to note it. I think it's really interesting. Is the only difference was Jeremy Bernard and Bourne. And you would think that...

43:36

If you were picking one of these, you would play the one where the guy doesn't go against his own defense, right? Like he picked the Bernard one as the, I'm going to put this everywhere lineup. Again, not that it matters, by the way, he's a $4,000 PPR guy. It literally doesn't matter playing Jeremy Bernard versus your defense, like nothing of that matters. It's just not usually the case. And an OptimizerAn optimizer is software that builds DFS lineups within a site's salary cap and roster rules. It uses projected fantasy points, your settings and, in some tools, simulations to select combinations for a chosen goal.Build a small test batch first. Check which players and combinations repeat, and investigate why before increasing the lineup count or changing settings.Read the full definition of Optimizer won't usually give you that because the settings usually defaulted to it.

44:02

But just to note, Two builds. He probably just hand-billed and put it in everything. But the point being... Also, I saw somebody tagged him on X. A really good poker pro. I believe it was like... Okay. Ten bracelets and a ring, maybe? Yeah. I don't want to put the guy on complete blast, but I mean, like, shout out to Dave. He's the man. Hendon Poker.

44:25

Hendon Mob is a poker site that's not even close to DFSOS, but from what it showcases and how much you can dig in, because obviously we talk about being able to, like, see the hand history, quote unquote, of everybody with this product. But... Dave Alpha, I believe this is him, I would assume. It's literally his name. He didn't change it or make it too sharp or too different or anything too crazy, but he's got a couple million in poker winnings that they're reflecting.

44:52

Again, Hennemob, this is why I said it's very similar to DFSOS. They're not here getting someone's P&L trying to figure out their tax reports. It's literally just saying what they can track and what they can see so far of what they've won. But I would assume... That's Dave. If it's not, shout out to the other Dave Alpha, the new guy that came into the street.

45:08

But I can tell you, it's pretty wild, I think, for a lot of people out there watching this that are in the streets and on these shows each week to say like, yeah, not only would I hand build that lineup and just make one swap, but the one that I would pick to go in everything would have the guy against his defense. I just, you know, I see that as being unique as well.

45:23

And we see the difference in those prize payouts. This one, Shout out to our guy. Bring the noise. I know he got fourth, I believe, in the Ship It Games yesterday. Golden Shipper, top three. Get a Golden Shippit. So it's like my second places in the FFWC to start the season. It's only for now, right? I always say this. People always say it never ends, Belman. It never ends, man. Always happens. First of all, it's a negative thought saying it never ends.

45:47

I know that saying. I bet you everyone watching is like, oh my God, it never ends. Always me. This always happens to me. It never ends. But it never ends. This is a new mantra. It never ends until it does. That's the thing. If you stay in the game and keep rolling... It doesn't mean you're going to get the ultimate goal. Okay. Yo, maybe you want to win a Milly Maker or whatever it might be that you want to do.

46:09

It doesn't, nobody can guarantee that type of stuff. But what I can guarantee is it ends. If you stop playing, it ends. If you don't use Bankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Read the full definition of Bankroll Management and run out of money, it ends. If you don't use good contest selection or you win. Like our friend, Max, a soda. And then tonight, Max, a max, a, a, a GBP and start playing a in a, in a Showdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Read the full definition of Showdown slate, just because you have the money sitting in your account. Now that's how it ends.

46:32

But if you stay in the game and play smart and be disciplined, it doesn't have to end. It doesn't end until it ends, right? It never ends when you keep getting these bad beats, but it will come to an end at some point. And also you have to be grateful for those other wins along the way. We don't have a lot of control of the last second touchdowns and things like that.

46:51

And that's why I said to this point, Yeah, shit would be totally different if Tucker doesn't score. But so would all the other SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate that you played on where you won, right? Something happened for you to win. Whenever you're coming in second or worse or that ultimate pit in your stomach feeling of like, damn, I thought this was my time. This was going to be close. Whatever that might be.

47:12

When you did win a different time, because most people have won something, whether it's a ticket, a hundred and fifty bucks. I don't care what it is. It's all dependent on the player. But the note of when you did win, you I guarantee you don't do the thing where you think about, well, sucks for the guy in second and third, man. They probably just took a massive bad beat here.

47:29

You don't you don't think like that because you want you're just so excited living in the moment of your win. But remember, it's whatever pain you're feeling in a negative instance. That's happening to someone else when you win as well. Someone else is going through that same spot that you've been in and enduring it. So just a little Monday motivation for you. I love that stuff, Belman, but anything to add when it comes to just that saying in general, right?

47:51

Obviously a lot of things can go against you, but things go for you as well. Yeah. And it's always off. It's oftentimes easier to remember when things didn't go your way than when things do go your way. So just keep that in mind. That's just human nature, right?

48:06

Like anytime you and not you specifically like the proverbial you or me I myself has won a tournament like things have happened that have gone my way to make that happen it's just you know you don't necessarily look at like look at it like that as opposed to when you lose and you think about all the woulda coulda shouldas so my wife always tells me don't be a woulda coulda shoulda and I think that's a good way to live I agree.

48:36

And I also think the funny thing is too, almost the only time you say something like it never ends or why always me or this always happens or whatever it might be, it's always negative thoughts. And first of all, it's not always you. It doesn't never end like we just talked about. But what's crazy is if you're in that position where it matters that much, a lot of shit already went your way today.

48:57

So if you're sweating a million dollars, our guy Max DeSoto, if you're sweating a million dollars down the stretch, and then the Tucker TD comes in, right? No Tucker for Max DeSoto. Tucker, Tucker, Tucker. So it's not salt and wound. I mean, he has no control over this at all. He just put himself in the position. But again, you've got... Aaron Rodgers, Bernard, Bernard OT touchdown.

49:25

Like for whatever happened to you with Tucker, people say, oh, imagine that Tucker touchdown didn't happen at the end of the game, at the very last ending of that game. Okay, imagine the Bernard. Imagine Rodgers didn't fight back. Off a fifty-five yard field goal. Fifty-five yard field goal to send it to the OT. And it's not against Max Soto. Honestly, like highest congrats as a member over the Chimney's community.

49:43

This is like the takeaways we spend time on this show to learn from is the concept of mindset. It's like the Bernard touchdown, getting them to OT and then getting the Rogers to Bernard connection. And then imagine your slate starts off and you- got Kenneth Walker and it's like, bang, bang score. And you're like, Oh my God, now everything is going my way. And then the one thing that doesn't at the end does kill you for nine hundred $50,000 and it sucks.

50:10

It hurts you for sure. But you got to remember the other things that happened throughout the day. I mean, he's got a couple, by the way, When you said don't be a coulda, shoulda, woulda guy, it's hard not to be because it's human nature. So I'm with Max on this one. I understand it.

50:24

Loveland, this dude, by the way, this is just some jokes at the end, but why was Loveland literally trying to run out of bounds and catch a toe tap touchdown when he was wide open in the end zone for his second? This buddy was full speed running to catch the ball like this. You could have stood there like a statue. And he throws you the ball, and you catch it. Instead, he doesn't get that touchdown.

50:48

Jonathan Taylor had multiple chances at another touchdown earlier in that setup. Everybody has Jeremy Bernard. Could have been Metcalf, right, at the end. Like, there's so many woulda, coulda, shouldas, but you have to remember the ones that went your way first, right? The other stuff that happened that put you up there to even give you that opportunity. So everybody up here has woulda, coulda, shouldas. Look at this guy, the Don Rader.

51:13

Brock Bowers, did he end up scoring less than Meyer yesterday? Didn't Meyer have like seven for ninety seven or something? I know Bowers started getting it later on, but man, that's just crazy. Like that could have been much better for them. That's an eight hundred and $50,000 swing. So. Lots of things got to happen to go your way in DFS. We recognize that. I was following along for a while. I think... Shout out CSU Ram. Long time been doing this.

51:39

He had all the players left over at one point. He was live. Super live. He had Chiefs, Walker, Worthy, and got the Bernard one late to push him up there with all those Chiefs when a lot of people just had Walker and Tucker or Cook or whatever. And these ones, again... I said it last week about the Brissett stuff. Excuse me, quote, unquote, garbage time merchant. It's all the same. The touchdown counts. The clock is still running. The slate is still on.

52:09

It doesn't matter. What if Tucker had gotten those touchdowns in the first quarter and you still finished fourth and it wasn't because of Tucker? For anybody or whatever place somebody finished, you wouldn't calculate it that way. It's just because it happens at the very end that you're like, damn, that sucks. So it is what it is. We can learn from it. We can move on. We can keep playing, getting better. I love...

52:30

Our guy Max DeSoto, tagging me in the Discord this morning, saying, just like Tambo says, we're just going, when you win, $10,000 plus, $50,000, his number is $52,000, when you win fifty-$2,000, you don't gotta hop back in and play fifty-$2,000 the next day or the next week. He's in for a hundred and sixty bucks for the next slate. So, love to see that. I agree. Alright. Anything else you wanted to look at here? Anything else you wanted to touch on?

52:53

Anything that you saw that you wanted to comment on for today? Just real quick, your point about like it never ends until it does. It reminds me of when people talk about like, you know, Sam Darnall could never win a Super Bowl, right? Could never win a Super Bowl until he does. You know what I'm saying? And it's like these arguments that people try to make that can be disproven just by – the other side happening is always funny to me.

53:20

And I think it's kind of exactly what you're saying. So positive mindset can go a long way. A hundred percent, man. People said there was like such a limited chance that the Brewers would get the Dodgers and then they sweep them. Exactly. Last year, I mean, I'm not a Jays fan and I was a little bit on the bandwagon because we didn't listen. They're the only Canadian team we got.

53:40

But when the Jays were up against the Dodgers in the World Series, it was like, look, they made it this far. Just be happy. But then it came down to like one crazy catch of Pahas over Hernandez, where Hernandez says, I looked up and I knew it was over. And he's like, then I found out it wasn't like even that catch when it happened. That was the end. That was the World Series was over. Jays win. So it's like any anything can happen.

54:01

When it comes down to the end, it's just you got to be able to put yourself there first. Your guardians are not out of it yet. You'd like for them to be in a better position to have the three-two lead, but they can win two games and get into the World Series still. That's the mindset you got to have and hope for. And as a fan, that's even a separate conversation. We can only do what we can do.

54:19

I'm not even against the people that are the we people. We just need this to happen. You're that much of a fan, good for you. And that you got something that you're actually that hyped up about and you support and that's your thing, go ahead. But no control on the outcome. They can go out and put themselves in the best position. Sometimes they do everything in their power and still come up just short.

54:39

Remember the Super Bowl back in the day, the guy's right there and just has to cross the line with his arm and it's like this short. It might have been the Titans back in the day, but things that I remember of all these woulda, coulda, shouldas that you talked about. It definitely was the Titans.

54:53

With eddie george yeah god who was the receiver it was steve mcnair's the quarterback he got like swung around a little bit like kind of like a little bit of hope for those Titans fans at that time and it was like damn just couldn't quite get there so Yeah, man, this is fun. This is what we like doing with our Mondays. Appreciate all you guys that joined us on this.

55:12

If you want to join us at The Nation, get in on the community stuff we talked about earlier, man. Just an incredible, incredible community. You see a guy like Rick not only win seventy $5,000 and give credit back, but also he did the work. But then to go on and give the donation that he's giving the fifteen hundred dollar ticket. We had our guy Sharks.

55:30

A couple of weeks ago there, a guy Sharks donated forty eight fifty three to the cause and got the Ship It Games rounded up after his $40,000 win. So just a incredible community to be a part of. A lot of fun. Belman always enjoy doing this with you on Mondays. We'll be back for more guys next week.

55:46

But this afternoon coming up in an hour, you got hoop title and myself going to be breaking down the Commanders and forty Niners game for Monday Night Football for Belman, for myself, ToeTagginTambo. Good luck this week and let's ship it.

Jump to a Game

  1. 0:00Intro
  2. 3:06Community Wins and Golden Shipper Ticket Giveaway
  3. 8:59Week 6 Perfect Lineup and Chalk Busts
  4. 12:33Kenneth Walker and Jonathan Taylor Pivots off Bijan Robinson
  5. 13:45Unconventional Stacks and Double Runbacks
  6. 18:46Ship It Nation Lineup Builder Walkthrough
  7. 21:31Reviewing the $20 Milly Maker Winner’s Player Pool
  8. 24:30$20 Milly Maker Winning Lineup and Two-for-Two Swaps
  9. 30:01Showdown Strategy: Outlier Results and Duplicate Lineups
  10. 38:06$555 Milly Maker Winning Lineup Breakdown
  11. 45:38Handling Bad Beats and Staying Disciplined
  12. 55:07Closing Thoughts and Monday Night Football Preview

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