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MLB DFS Process | DraftKings & FanDuel Picks, Plays & Slate Breakdown | Tuesday, 09/08/26

Aired Tue Sep 8, 2026 Hosts Zach Trivett & Austin Hanson Runtime 59:29 Chapters 14 Views 1,145

From the archive. This breakdown is for the Tuesday, September 8 MLB slate. Salaries, weather and picks were for that day.

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The Short Version

Zach Trivett and Austin Hanson favor paying for elite pitching on Tuesday’s ten-game slate, ideally pairing two of the three top arms. Jacob Misiorowski ($11,700) gets the tournament nod relative to ownership, alongside Tarik Skubal and Cam Schlittler. Cal Quantrill is the sneaky alternative, while Quinn Mathews and Landen Roupp offer savings. Sean Burke becomes less attractive as the discussion weighs his ownership against Pittsburgh’s lefties and the superior expensive options.

The White Sox stack offers the clearest low-owned offense against Bubba Chandler, while the Dodgers stack and Yankees lead the premium choices. Royals-Pirates exposure can differentiate chalk pitching; Arizona’s discounts require more deliberate construction. Toronto draws ownership concerns, though Kirk-Springer mini-stacks remain viable. Prefer affordable Dodgers pieces around the expensive arms, limit overlapping pinch-hit risks, and consider cheaper Yankees lower in the order. Tristan Peters receives the home-run call at $3,100.

FadesBryce MillerCorbin BurnesCasey MizeFreddy PeraltaBubba ChandlerAJ Smith-ShawverDavid PetersonPadresRangersMariners

Plays Mentioned

PlayCallThe TakeAt
SP One of the three elite arms to build around at $11,200, with enough cheap hitting to pair two aces. 3:40
FADE Excluded from the tight pitching pool built around the three aces and selected cheaper alternatives. 5:52
FADE Explicitly excluded, with poor form before his injury and his first start back adding reasons to consider Royals bats. 5:52
FADE Not used against Washington, with later discussion emphasizing his recent hard contact and weak strikeout numbers. 6:20
FADE The tempting salary does not overcome the road matchup against Atlanta. 7:02
FADE Excluded from the pitching pool, with his vulnerability to lefties instead supporting White Sox stacks. 7:25
FADE Excluded from the cheaper pitching options, with command problems against righties noted later. 7:25
FADE Passed over in favor of the elite arms and a small group of cheaper alternatives. 7:25
SP A priority anchor at $10,700 against Cincinnati, with the discount making his expected heavy ownership acceptable. 8:12
SP A cheaper option in Oracle Park to pair with an ace and afford stronger stacks, although Quantrill was preferred in the other ranking. 9:36
SP Opinions were split: a preferred cheap partner for an ace in one pool, but excluded from the other because of the Cardinals matchup and expected ownership. 9:36
SP A marginal alternative with split opinions; one approach allowed him while the other explicitly avoided pitching at Sutter Health Park. 9:36
SP Preferred tournament arm at $11,700 because ownership should trail the other aces, with little concern about his previous start against Chicago. 10:06
ONE-OFF Elite spend-up if affordable because Hughes allows harder contact to righties, with more willingness to prioritize him than the other expensive Yankees. 16:56
Rockies Interest was split between avoiding them entirely and considering Goodman, McCarthy and Carrigg for small combinations or home-run hunting. 18:05
Yankees TOP STACK A leading stack against Hughes and Colorado's bullpen, using cheaper bottom-of-order bats to preserve elite pitching; rankings differed on its overall priority. 18:43
Rays IN PLAY Mostly the established bats such as Caminero, Diaz and Aranda, with pinch-hit risk and Atlanta's bullpen limiting enthusiasm. 20:29
Braves IN PLAY Preferred over Tampa Bay for stacking, especially the top four and lefties against Peralta, but not a priority offense. 21:17
Diamondbacks IN PLAY Strong salary value in a favorable hitting environment, but ownership calls for different pitching combinations or cheaper righties lower in the lineup. 24:06
Royals LEVERAGE Low-owned exposure against Burnes in hot, favorable hitting conditions, with potential to differentiate an Arizona game stack. 25:15
Pirates LEVERAGE Lefties provide direct leverage against popular Burke, led by Cruz and Lowe with cheaper Gonzalez and Horwitz pieces. 30:32
White Sox TOP STACK A preferred five-man stack of low-owned lefties against Chandler's power and command problems, with limited pinch-hit concerns accepted. 31:37
SP Initially appealing at $8,200, but enthusiasm and planned exposure declined because of ownership and recent struggles against lefties. 32:01
Brewers IN PLAY Prefer cheaper back-half mini-stacks or a wraparound with Chourio, keeping pinch-hit risk in mind and avoiding the more popular middle-order construction. 34:23
ONE-OFF An appealing spend-up against a lefty because of recent form, hard airborne contact and stolen-base upside. 35:08
LEVERAGE A hot, low-owned differentiation piece at $6,800, but difficult to justify over other spend-ups if it requires sacrificing pitching. 35:54
ONE-OFF Preferred over Acuna in a salary-sensitive comparison because the $1,600 savings help preserve pitching. 36:46
Nationals IN PLAY Opinions were sharply split, with large-field exposure supported against struggling Mize and a depleted bullpen despite concerns about price and park. 39:11
Padres FADE Explicitly removed from consideration after ranking behind several preferred offenses, despite their team total. 39:59
SP Low-owned $7,500 alternative whose recent strikeouts, control and ground balls in Seattle pushed him ahead of Burke as the show progressed. 41:10
Rangers FADE No bats in this game because of the pitching environment and stronger offensive spots elsewhere. 41:10
Mariners FADE No hitting exposure after considering Quantrill's recent form and Seattle's pitcher-friendly park. 41:10
Blue Jays Full-stack enthusiasm was low at heavy ownership, but Kirk-Springer mini-stacks remained acceptable alongside a differentiated primary stack. 45:56
Athletics Low ownership and prices were acknowledged, but Soriano's ground balls made this an uncomfortable offense to attack with. 47:30
ONE-OFF Cheap filler with recent hitting form and power against lefties, facing Mathews' command issues against righties. 48:54
ONE-OFF A cheap Giants filler rather than a reason to prioritize a full stack. 48:54
ONE-OFF Recent hard hitting keeps him in consideration as a filler even in a lefty-lefty matchup. 48:54
Cardinals LEVERAGE A secondary contrarian option against potentially overplayed Roupp, although interest was split and this game was not a focus. 49:17
Reds Five-man stacks against Skubal were rejected, while small combinations were distinguished from that full-stack fade. 50:47
Playable as a premium bat, but leaving him out of Dodgers stacks was preferred in one approach to save salary in the lefty-lefty matchup. 53:39
A possible cheap Dodgers component, with exposure capped and a preference not to use him alongside Hernandez. 53:39
Dodgers TOP STACK A leading stack against Lodolo's fly balls and Cincinnati's weak bullpen, with affordable hitters allowing an ace plus a cheaper pitcher. 54:01
Preferred over Rojas if both start, but avoid pairing them because pinch-hit risk could leave two lineup spots with limited at-bats. 54:31
HR CALL Called to homer while batting seventh at $3,100 in a preferred White Sox stack. 58:12

DFS Terms Used on This Show

Bankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 1:14 Cash GameA cash game is a contest that pays a large share of the field, usually close to half, the same flat prize. Fifty-fifties, double-ups and head-to-heads are the common cash games.Treat cash games as the steady base of your bankroll. Use one safe core across your cash entries on a slate, and save riskier ideas for tournaments.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 2:56 OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 2:56 Ballpark FactorsBallpark factors, also called park factors, measure how much a stadium raises or lowers scoring compared with an average park. Altitude, fence distances, foul territory and typical weather shape them, and some parks favor one side of the plate.Check whether a park factor is split by handedness. Some parks boost left-handed power while doing little for righties, and that split can change which hitters you stack.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 21:45 ChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 22:33 Game StackIn baseball, a game stack means rostering hitters from both offenses in one game, typically in a hitter-friendly park or against two weak starting pitchers.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 26:05 LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 27:37 ContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 29:16 Twenty-MaxA twenty-max contest lets each user enter up to 20 lineups. It sits between small-field formats like three-max and the largest 150-entry tournaments.Plan all 20 lineups before building any of them. Decide your stacks and exposure limits first, so the set works as a portfolio rather than 20 separate guesses.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 39:11 The FieldThe field is everyone else entered in a contest, the group of lineups you are competing against.Before you build, picture the typical lineup in your contest. Then decide on purpose where you'll match it and where you'll step away from it.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 47:06 SatelliteA satellite, also called a qualifier, is a contest whose prizes are tickets into a more expensive contest or a live final instead of cash. Tickets are free entries into that bigger event.Before building, compare the number of seats to the size of the field. The share of entries that win a ticket tells you whether to build like a cash game or a tournament.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 55:45

Full Transcript

11,662 words 56 min read 14 sections
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0:02

All systems go. Clear for lift off. What is going on, everybody? Happy Tuesday. Nades and I talking some baseball. Ten games on DraftKings, ten games on FanDuel. I know many, many excited for the NFL season, which kicks off tomorrow. I'll get into that in a little bit. Throw out the show. We'll talk about some of our offerings.

0:51

Over here at Chippenation for the NFL season, how you can get in, the best deals to get in, giving away over $45,000 in cash and prizes in the Chippenation games again. So super excited. One sleep away. That's a football Wednesday, Thursday, college football on Saturday. I think they got a Friday to MMA on Saturday in my backyard. Pumped for that. Sunday football, Monday football. A lot of money to be made.

1:14

But first, hopefully we can boost that Bankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗ in MLB streets. We got Scooter in here. We got Teddy in here. Hope you guys doing well. Again, always ask like button, subscribe button. Nate, throw it to you. You're still rocking the brew crew. Brewers are looking great. Football is about here. But hey, baseball is still a long season and playoffs are a lot of fun. And we'll have you covered throughout. Yeah, looking forward to jumping in here. Ten games. Got a nice slate.

1:39

No cruise field to talk about. We do have Suter Health, which is obviously a big talking point. We got the Yankees at home against the Rockies, so that's going to be a pretty important talking point. Dodgers late night against the Reds, who kind of have punted off the season there, so Lots of interesting spots overall, and I think pitching is absolutely loaded. I mean, you got three horses up at the top in Miz, Schlittler, and Scooball.

2:04

I think you're probably going to get Miz probably pretty similar to the lowest you might have seen him all year because of the kind of recency bias right there. So we'll talk through that. But loaded pitching slate, there is some cheaper guys, but ideally you're going to be wanting to spend up at pitching and find some value stacks. So... Should be an interesting slate to talk through, but there's a lot of money to be made in the MLB streets. Contests are still really good.

2:28

There's a ton of satellites out there. I think I got seven milli tickets, hundred dollar milli tickets already in like the last three days or four days from MLB. So don't forget about those. They run... Ten set ones all the way up to you. You name it. Right. I like the twenty five cent, one dollar, three dollar, nine dollar ones to get into the hundred dollar milli contest for week one of NFL here. And then they have showdown satellites, too, for tomorrow's opening slate.

2:56

Million dollars up top. So turn a dollar into a twenty dollar ticket and maybe a million bucks. Right. Or whatever the share might be there for tomorrow. So don't forget about those satellite streets. Yeah, absolutely. Great call in the satellites. Tournaments are good. Cash GameA cash game is a contest that pays a large share of the field, usually close to half, the same flat prize. Fifty-fifties, double-ups and head-to-heads are the common cash games.Treat cash games as the steady base of your bankroll. Use one safe core across your cash entries on a slate, and save riskier ideas for tournaments.Full explanation ↗ are good. We have you covered. As always, as you know, for MLB projections, OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, FanDuel, DraftKings, the Stone, which will be showing off after we talk pitching.

3:19

Stone 2.0 point oh can hand build in there the Slate Station, which has the slate reports, the cores for cash for tournaments, for FanDuel, for DraftKings, all that good stuff. I'll get in again to our NFL offering soon. I first want to start pitching after I say hi to Jake, to Clint, to Sean, to Williams, to Josh. Hope you guys are doing well.

3:40

I just want to talk pitching right away because, again, it's ten games, but I don't think it's been any more clear where the field's going to go and, quite frankly, where I'm going to go in a lot of the spots. Three of the best pitchers in baseball, you can argue, Miz, Schlittler, Skubal, all on this slate. $11,700, Miz. $11,200, Cam. And then a school ball at $10,700. There's enough value for bats that it's really easy to play them.

4:03

I think you pick two of them and you move on. And that's what a lot of people are going to do. So that's kind of the broad slate overview. If you go to bats and sort by team stacks. Again, we're sharing our partner optimizer over here at SaberSim. Five point seven runs are the Blue Jays and the Yankees. Five three Dodgers. Five two. But Blue Jays aren't very expensive.

4:23

Yeah, I think it's pretty clear where some roster construction is going to go, as are some other teams that are cheap. Anything. I'm not even going to group them, Nades, because I think there's just so many clear X's and plays that you can't get to unless you're playing eighty five plus teams, which I know most people aren't on this slate. Like talk about the three and then is anyone else really in your pool? Yeah, so it's obviously Miz, Schlittler, and Skubal.

4:45

Ownership's going to be Skubal, number one, Schlittler, two, Miz, three. So in tournaments, if you wanted to reverse order them, I wouldn't fault anyone. Ideally, I'm going to want as much of those three as I can get. I'm not really worried about Misiorowski's recent start, this and that. This is a big deal. Series, right? Obviously, if the Brewers win one or two more, it's kind of GG for the Cubs, right? It's pretty close to that territory anyway.

5:09

So they're going to ride Miz as long as he's good. He doesn't typically really go past six innings anyways. He's got an eight and a half K prop right there next to Scooball. On the slate as well. So I do think he's a really good play. Not much more to say about those three. I think Sean Burke's kind of interesting at $8,200. If you wanted to kind of play a guy in that mid tier, I think he does have upside.

5:34

He is a good pitcher coming off a pretty solid start, gets a matchup against Pittsburgh. They do have some lefties to throw at him there, but I do think he still has upside at that price point. Six and a half K prop. Pretty nice on the slate as well for the price. Can't really mess. I'm not messing with Soriano out at Suter Health. Don't want to do that. I know he's a ground baller.

5:52

He has upside, but I'd just rather play Sean Burke than miss with him. Out on Bryce Miller, not playing Corbin Burns. Cal Quantro coming back, pitching out in that matchup there out in Seattle. Really good place to pitch. It was supposed to be Bradford. No, it's Cale Quantrill. Quantrill is actually kind of interesting here on this slate. $7,500 because I think so many more people are just going to click Landon Rupp or Quinn Matthews.

6:20

And Quantrill has actually been pretty solid. Seattle. I'm still not super afraid of this lineup. It's one of the best places to pitch as well. So I think Quantrill at his price, he's going to go close to ninety some pitches, which is right in line with the rest of these guys. And he has a ceiling. At that price point. So I don't mind him. Casey Ma is not messing with him against Nationals.

6:41

Landon Roop, I think you could play, but I don't really like it, to be honest. I like St. Louis a little bit more than playing Landon Roop. So I'm going to X him out. And then Quinn Matthews on the other side, I think, is the cheap guy that people are going to go to get the matchup against the Giants. But Giants have sneakily kind of on the back of Rafaela Devers, right?

7:02

Have been hitting the ball Well, as of late, so I think I actually prefer the five hundred dollars to get up to Cal Quantrill at much lower OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ there. But ideally, Matthews is still in the pool. And then I'm not messing with any of these other draconis. I'm not messing with Freddie. I know that price looks enticing. They're not messing with him on the road against the Atlanta offense. I don't think that's interesting to me.

7:25

Bubba Chandler, Smith, Shover, Davis Peterson, all these other donkeys down here below. I'm not really going to mess with them. So it's a super tight pitching pool for me. Headline with the three horses up top, Burke, Quantrill, and then Quinn Matthews. Would you make a rule to have at least one Miz, Gubal, and Schlittler on this slate? Are you playing Soriano and a Burke or Quantrill and Soriano or something like that? It feels to me like you're just giving up too much.

7:56

Yeah, I mean, it's baseball. You can do anything, really. But, I mean, ideally, I want one of those three horses because they have upside that can – even kind of their median range of outcomes kind of dwarfs you, right? Whereas you're kind of looking for a ceiling out of those guys if you go that route.

8:12

Now, obviously, if the expensive Dodgers, the expensive Yankees, right, something like that – out there and score twelve runs with five home runs right well then that's that team probably works because you're allowed to or you're able to afford Aaron Judge you're able to afford otani and stuff like that but if they don't they kind of just go out there and score their their normal even six to eight runs right don't hit a ton of home runs I think pitching is gonna gonna dwarf you there so I think you're giving up too much I would probably have prefer to have one of those guys I mean scuba is only $10,700 it's not that expensive to afford him.

8:47

I know he's going to be super chalk, but there's other ways to differentiate around him that, I mean, I think you're just leaving out too much and you can find $2,000. It's difference from going to like a $5,000 hitter to a $3,500 hitter that's on a different team in a good lineup spot on the road in good environments, things like that. It's just very easy to find that fifteen hundred dollars to $2,000 savings in a lineup.

9:11

For sure, and that is why you do see the ownership. Even though they are the three highest priced, by far the highest projection, but they are the three highest owned on the slate. Skubal will be number one, agree there. And then I do think it's pretty close between Schlittler and the Miz. Let me refresh this quick, and then I'll get my final pitching thoughts. I clearly like those three. I would include at least one of them as my anchor in every lineup.

9:36

The it's like Sean Burke being twenty three percent because I like these top three guys so much more I feel like that's just he's gonna be there in terms of ownership so if I'm playing one of these three and then I pair with burke it's not even doing the job of getting different much so to be honest I don't love that much I'd rather just go to oracle in a pitching park um in san fran and just go both sides with quinn Matthews and rope so these are my next two favorites by far um And then I guess Soriano I'm fine with, but I don't even like it that much.

10:06

It's mainly these three. If you only play five pitchers, you can get very overweight. Rope, Quinn Matthews, and call it a day is how I'm seeing it. I would go Miz number one, though. Like you said, it's probably the lowest zone that I can remember in a long time, partly due to the pitching slates. I mean, Cubs not a cupcake matchup. He's got a great projection as always, though, but mainly because what's around him at pitching today and his price tag.

10:31

Any final thoughts before we move on to bets? No, I mean, we're not saying Miz is going to be unknown, but compared to Skubal and Schlittler, he's going to be. Do you think it's different than this? So right now we're taking the average of Shippenation and SaberSim, thirty-eight, thirty-one, thirty-one. So I'll tell you what the dry run spit out. The dry run spits out eighty-two percent Skubal, sixty percent Schlittler, and forty percent Miz.

10:52

So I do think there's going to be probably at least ten to fifteen percentage points difference between Miz and Schlittler. And then even a bigger gap between him and Scooball, right? So I do think in tournaments, he is the best pitcher in baseball. I know his last start against the same team didn't really go that well, but it was a win game at Wrigley. Now he's pitching at home.

11:12

The mound, he's not going to be mad at the mound or this and that like he had out against the Mets and stuff. So I do think he's super interesting amongst the three. And I prefer him to Schlittler if picking between the two. It's hard to argue school ball over him with a thousand dollars. You do say when there is big bats on the slate and he gets the matchup against Cincinnati who have punted off the season.

11:36

But yeah, that's that's kind of my final thoughts there. Yeah, I can't argue if you have them in any order. Just want to touch on FanDuel quick. It's the same pitching slate over there, except somehow Corbin Burns is ten point $2,000. I don't know if they thought it was a couple of years ago or whatever, but Miz eleven to Schlittler $10,900 school ball $10,600. And I think it's going to be school ball, probably the highest zone.

11:58

And I don't know, Miz and Schlittler only three hundred dollar difference. It'll be close between them next as well. So those three are going to get the ownership. There's enough cheap bats on FanDuel to make it work. All right, let's head over. First, let me head over to Ship It Nation website. We haven't shown everything yet. And man, one day away from football, one sleep away. And as you can see, $45,000 up top in the Ship It Gamel.

12:23

You're probably wondering, how can I get $45,000 cash and prizes? A little change up this year, which I think is actually good. So you do have to be an NFL only member, which you can see right here. You need it for three hundred forty nine dollars or you could do it for the month. Um, if you click join the nation, there's multiple different years or different, uh, options right here. NFL, as you can see, Ship It Gamel.

12:46

What you have to do in the Discord, we are going to drop a link every single week and tag everyone. And the first, uh, four hundred ninety nine spots, right? Nades. Yeah, yep, four hundred, four hundred. Four hundred ninety-nine spots in the Discord. You have to click the link and whoever joins first gets in. Then you have the chance to compete.

13:06

People were complaining last year that there was a lot more randomness to some of our drawings, so now it's gonna be a skill base You have to finish in the top, and then you get a seat to the qualifier in the Ship It Gamel. All you have to do right now, click the Ship It Gamel. It dives all into what you have to do. But how do you qualify?

13:24

You have to be a member with the NFL All Access package, or you have to be an NFL-only package, or you have to be an All Access member throughout the NFL season. I have to look on Ship It Gamel. If you click here, you should be able to – We'll have to get that checked out. Usually I click the link and it brought you right to... No, I don't know what's going on. We'll get that figured out after.

13:53

Usually when you click that link, you're able to see a whole breakdown and everything and then see the payouts. This year is going to be $10,000 right now dollars for first place. And then you get some SaberSim stuff as well. NFL only right here, bottom left, join the nation, can find out the other options. Core one hundred. This gets you one hundred lineups in SaberSim. But you do not get late swaps. That's a big thing.

14:17

I think starter is by far the best deal. As you can see, fifty dollars more, even less if you do the annual package. But you get four hundred more lineups with SaberSim and then late swap. If you are playing any sport, late swap is very important, especially in the NFL streets with a twelve o'clock lock and a three o'clock lock. You also get portfolio diversification and you get SaberSim projections as well as ours, which you can take the average from.

14:42

So if you want the best deal, I think the best deal is starter with us. This gets you all of our sports. MLB still going on. NBA will be back. Ultimate is the contest Sims. If you want the big boy package, you're also able to run $5,000 lineups like guys like Hebrew Cheetah and our man Sheets. Single sport over here, NFL. But if you want to play some MLB, we have single sport MLB less than a dollar a day. Also can get SaberSim.

15:07

For forty nine dollars, anything that you want, you can find here. Also, last thing I'll say, I'm all over the place. I've been a little rusty. All access five day trial for nineteen dollars. This is a great deal because tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, college football, Sunday NFL. This will take you through every single slate right there for only nineteen dollars and gets all of our content. All right, that's enough talking for me, Nades. That will get better as the time goes.

15:35

Spent a little bit of a summer off over here, but we are diving in to all the sports. Boom, boom. MLB, the Stone, ten games starting at seven oh five Eastern, the Colorado Rockies and the New York Yankees. Camp Schlittler, Gabriel Hughes on the mound. Yankees, the second biggest total on the slate maids. But you do look at their prices. Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Luis Garcia, Jazz, all somewhat of a price tag. Cody Bellinger as well. The bottom of the order is cheap.

16:09

If you do want to mix in stacks, I still do think you can go a Schlittler, a Miz, pick one of those big guys up top and then stack the bottom if you want to go about that. Is that something you'll be looking to do? Yeah, so, I mean, I do think the Yankees are definitely playable here. I do like them. I think they're in a good spot.

16:28

They haven't been as great over the last month or so against right-handed pitching as they have on the whole season. And Gabriel Hughes is actually reverse splitzy, so... Righties hit him harder than lefties, especially over the course of the season, even more so over the last month or so. So Judge looks like an elite play if you can afford him. He's back. He looks really good. And then it's probably, I mean, Lombard, some of the cheaper guys at the back half.

16:56

I mean, he was only going to see two righties in this lineup. He doesn't have strikeout ability to really either side. He just doesn't really give up hard contact. And barrels to the left side. So I just think, I mean, the Yankees could get there, but I'm not sacrificing pitching to get up to the Yankees bats that people are going to want to play outside of Aaron Judge. I do think Aaron Judge is a really good play.

17:18

I think the Yankees make some sense on the slate for sure, because anytime you're facing a pitcher like a Hughes who has command issues to the right side, has low strikeout abilities, you can see. Free base runners. And then you got that, obviously, Rocky's bullpen behind him, which is not good at all. Second worst in baseball in terms of XFIP over the last two months. So I think Spence Jones, Judge, Rice, Jazz, those guys are all in play.

17:44

If I have to sacrifice the big dog pitching, I don't want to get there. But if I'm going cheap with one of those other guys, and if I'm going like a Miz and Quinn Matthews or Atlanta Roop or Quantrill, something like that, Maybe I can afford some of these other guys and then punt off a cheaper mini stack, something like that. So I do think they're playable. They're definitely have upside.

18:05

They're not top my charts compared to some of the other teams that are just a little bit easier to stack up, in my opinion. But I do think they make a ton of sense. And then on the. Rocky side of thing. I mean, Goodman, McCarthy, Kerrig, those three are playable pretty much any time. Kerrig and McCarthy have been really good as of late. So those guys make some sense. Same thing with Spence Jones.

18:28

So I kind of prefer this game more as kind of mini stack and home run hunting here in Yankee Stadium. It's not the best hitting environment, but eighty degrees, not really a ton of wind to go out there. But you do obviously still have that short porch.

18:43

In right field for those lefties so maybe maybe some one-offs mini stacks um more so than full stacks here for me I like the Yankees I think is my favorite stack on the slate because looking at OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ when you do stack the top or want to play the top end pitching which I do again there's enough cheap bats down below like five percent wells nine percent McMahon I guess that's a little higher than I'd love but still fine with it has some pop Lombard to punch shortstop jazz like I I want to play these Yankees I Yankees obviously a great uh hitting

19:14

Park uh you did mention Hughes obviously I'm not worried about him the bullpen's not great second highest run total on the slate ownership is there but a lot of my teams with the Yankees will have some of these guys down low and again punt or punting off a catcher short stop second base a lot of one a lot of onesie positions throughout the order what I do like so I'm definitely in on the Yankees my favorite uh stack on the slate because you can still pay up for pitching, which I do want.

19:40

You can also see hitter rankings. They do look good in the top half of the order. Obviously, as you'd expect, it falls off at the bottom. Definitely not playing any Rockies on this slate. Next game on the slate, Atlanta Braves and Tampa Bay Rays, Freddy Peralta and Smith Chauver on the mound. Neither team getting too much ownership. We've talked about Freddy Peralta quite a bit.

20:05

He's been, I guess, a little better as of late, but, man, he went through a stretch where it was really, really bad, but. Not to teams that aren't going to get much OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. Looking at the pricing, though, they're relatively cheap, especially on the race side outside of Caminero, Braves, Olson, Acuña. But outside of them, I think it's pretty easy to spend up for pitching and five man stack either team if you think they got the upside to win.

20:29

Yeah, I mean, I don't love this game here. I'm not a Smith Chauvin believer. He's been he can't get a righty out right now. I mean, it's either a strikeout or a walk right now. So Caminero and Yandy, I think makes some sense there. Mullins, Aranda, you could pick some guys there. I just don't really want to pick on that Braves bullpen. It's just straight nails. Pinch hit risk all throughout the Tampa Bay lineup as well.

20:55

It's just more so the studs, the Aranda, the Diazes, the Caminero of the world, if you're going there for the brave side. Against Freddie, he has been better as of late, but he is still susceptible to the lefties. Olsen looks really good. Harris, Acuña's been red hot. Albies, you got Drake Baldwin. You got a cheap guy, Yastrzemski, hitting in the back half of that lineup too. I do think the Braves make some sense.

21:17

They'd be my preferred side from – Stacking perspective, majority of the lineup ranks pretty good, especially that one, two, three, four. I say it all the time. You can play them anytime they're in there. Not super afraid of Freddie, but these are not two of my top stacks on the slate. I have a lean to the Atlanta offense just because I think it's better overall from upside on a DFS perspective. But yeah, not not going too heavy here. Sounds good.

21:45

We'll keep it rolling to what looks to be a pretty similar game. Arizona Dimebacks, Kansas City Royals, Corbin Burns, Michael Waka on the mound. I'm looking at the Dimeback side. Again, another cheap team. Pretty good in the hitter rankings. And then Waka, just looking at the splits. You do prefer righties against them a little bit. Two lefties. It is pretty similar, I guess, on both sides. But, I mean, I'm in on pretty much one through nine. Guaranteed ninth inning at-bats. Ballpark FactorsBallpark factors, also called park factors, measure how much a stadium raises or lowers scoring compared with an average park. Altitude, fence distances, foul territory and typical weather shape them, and some parks favor one side of the plate.Check whether a park factor is split by handedness. Some parks boost left-handed power while doing little for righties, and that split can change which hitters you stack.Full explanation ↗, good prices.

22:14

I mean, like Corbin Carroll, a five one, I look at it as a discount. Marte, four six, I look at as a discount. Perdomo, I just think these prices are wrong. But looking at OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, you can see that it is getting some, which is the only concern. And when I would be playing a rope or a Quinn Matthews.

22:33

I think the D backs do make some sense when you're playing that stack because a lot of teams with them will double spend pitching because they are so cheap. So at least you're getting a little different within a ChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ hitting stack. And then it's easier to play a Corbin Carroll, a Marte and stuff like that too. So that's one thing that stood out to me.

22:51

I also do think the Royals are a little interesting, too, just showing really low ownership, pretty good prices, have some power throughout the lineup. So I'm curious to see if you have some Royals bats you can include. Yeah, I'll start with the D-backs. I do think the D-backs, I mean, projections in terms of dry run.

23:07

So I ran an obviously an average of ours and SaberSim projections kind of just put a pretty good floor on there and just no other rules outside of just dry runs.

23:17

Dry projected score and I'm getting like eighty percent Arizona stacks here because of their price points um because it allows you to spend up it's between them and Toronto so that does worry me a little bit just because every time I'm just walk is not a DFS darling by any means but he's just he really doesn't get blown up too often and he's better against he he wants you want righties really against him in terms of his strikeouts are way down his power is way up his fly balls are way up so um Arenado, I think, is a pretty interesting play at third base.

23:50

Moreno, you've got cheap guys in Waldschmidt, Tawa, who have some power in the back half. So actually kind of lean those guys. Obviously, you can always play Marte, Carroll, and Perdomo. But I don't love Arizona into ownership as much as the field here is.

24:06

I do think it's a sharp way, like you alluded to, if you're playing them because of their salary discounts, not double spending pitcher, or maybe you go instead of double spend up arms, you go like a, a Burke or Soriano or something in kind of that mid-tier range that's getting lost in the shuffle. And then just play Ohtani, Freeman, play a judge, play a Freeman, play an Ohtani, something like that. Right.

24:32

I do think that's the interesting way instead of just going in there five stack in Arizona like everyone else is and playing Scooble and Schlittler or Misiorowski, two of those three. Because then everyone else is doing that same thing, right? So it's not getting totally off the wall and just going kind of diamond in the roughs.

24:49

It's just more of doing what kind of figuring out, you know, what they're going to do, what the field majority is going to do projections wise and just leveraging it a little different there. So I do like that call out there on the Casey side. I do think it's more, it's pretty interesting here. Casey's been decent. It's a really good place to hit here tonight. So that is, Another argument for Arizona and that Casey bullpen is absolutely atrocious.

25:15

I mean, it's ninety seven degrees in Kansas City right now with double digit wind kind of blowing. It's going to start blowing out kind of towards that fall line. Pretty much the entire the left field foul line. Pretty much an entire duration of this game. So it is going to be hitter friendly and you do have a bad bullpen. But that same thing goes for Casey. Corbin Burns making his first start back. He looked atrocious before he got injured again. Vinny B looks really good.

25:38

Jensen. Isaac Collins is a switch hitter there. You got Matthews Lugo. He's got a pedigree with some power there. Michael Massey, I always like him because he's cheap, and second base is usually a go slot or a wasteland. So I do think he's in play. This is definitely one of the better game environments on the slate. Arizona's going to get the ownership case. He's not. So I do think when you play Arizona, just play them differently or be cognizant of how you play them.

26:05

But I do think they're a good spot on paper here. Yeah, I mean, I'm good with a Game StackIn baseball, a game stack means rostering hitters from both offenses in one game, typically in a hitter-friendly park or against two weak starting pitchers.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗ of this as well if you want to. You can double spend pitching there, and part of the Royals maybe can get you different. So I like this game quite a bit, one of my favorites on the slate. What's up? ALS, great to see you. Hope you're doing well. Hope everybody out there is doing well and ready for some football. I mean, I got a question, A.

26:27

Is Hurter Dirty watching right now live? How many of them do you think play NFL DFS? Hunter Dirty? Probably ninety eight percent minimum. I would say. OK, so you might you might give like five of these people something like that. You know, the diehard September baseball nerds here trying to chase some tickets before NFL. There might be some of them. But outside of that, I mean. It's probably majority probably play NFL here.

26:56

Yeah, I would go like one hundred, one hundred thirty one, one hundred thirty three, I think. But if you play MLB, DFS and not NFL, let me know in chat for sure. I mean, Nate said nerds. I would say that use that as a compliment. I would I would love to hear if anyone does that. But that's strictly Bankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗. That is that's good stuff. All right, let's get to a game that I do not necessarily believe. Tell me, Nate.

27:17

There's no way the White Sox are going to be this low on, right? Bubba Chandler struggles against lefties. Prices are good for the most part. I think the White Sox are one of the best stacks on the slate. I do not believe that this OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ can be true. The ownership is true because their projections just don't hit any optimizer. I got one team at one hundred and fifty with the White Sox here.

27:37

Obviously, when you bring that up into Sabre, it's going to they're going to they're not going to be LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ like zero percent all of them. But I mean, this stack is probably looking at twenty to thirty percent combined ownership across five guys. This is one of my top, if not my top stack on the slate. I love the White Sox anytime they're facing a right handed pitcher. Bubba Chandler has command issues at times here.

27:58

I mean, I think this is an elite spot for the White Sox. He gives up a shit ton of power to the left side, tons of fly balls, tons of hard hits. I mean, Tristan Peters is one of my darlings. I talk about him every time on the show. Nobody ever plays him. Because he hits seventh. He's got some speed. He's got a ton of power. Montgomery, Murakami, Braden Montgomery, Antonacci, Benintendi, Tyler Teal back in there, which I do love. A lefty from there.

28:23

Pirates' bullpen is – they did make a lot of additions at the deadline there. Let me just look at what their usage looks like. But I say all that to say I love the White Sox here. I do think they're going to be as – right in line with what their projected ownership says, which I think is a mistake. And I'm going to be heavily invested in them. Pittsburgh did have a day off yesterday, so bullpen should be pretty rested there.

28:48

I don't know how many lefties off the top of my head here. I'll look that up when I pass it back to you. So there is some pinch hit risk. I would say the biggest guys for pinch hit risk are Tristan Peters, And then Antonacci and Benintendi, because Benintendi is probably going to turn into Grichuk there if the game's close. But outside of those guys and the minute pinch hit risk, I mean, they can't pitch at all of them.

29:16

I do think the White Sox have a ton of make a ton of sense here on this slate. And then on the Pirates side. Burke's been miserable to lefties over the last month, so I think they're kind of interesting as well. I mean, Jacob Gonzalez is pretty cheap. I think he's interesting. Brandon Lowe, you do have to spend for at second base, but second base is typically a position people punt off, so spending up at that position I do think is kind of ContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ there.

29:43

O'Neill Cruz has a bunch of upside. So I do think the Pirates are interesting as well. If you want to pick on Sean Burke and his recent mishaps from specifically lefties overall. Yeah, I actually think I already talked about the White Sox. I definitely you want lefties against Chandler. They're going to be thrown out one, two, three, four, five, six, seven of their nine or lefties. Ownership is absolutely nothing. Again, maybe this goes to four or five percent, which.

30:13

It's a big difference if you're saying it's double. It's still going to be low, though, and I am a hundred percent in on the White Sox. But the Pirates, for sure. I mean, Sean Burke, we mentioned, like, I didn't really have interest at pitching just because it's clear it's going to be the top three in terms of ownership. And then it's going to be clearly Burke and then it's going to be a next group.

30:32

So he's the fourth highest pitcher on the slate showing twenty two percent. That is a good amount of leverage with the Pirates team. That's going to, again, be one percent, two percent. If you are playing this chalk pitching up top, which I like, it's not really easy to play Cruz or Lowe. You can only play one max if you do fit it in. But even some other Pirates, you do prefer the lefties. I mean, those two I definitely would want. Let's see who else I can maybe.

30:57

You mentioned Jacob Gonzalez, who's cheap. I'm good with that. Even Nick Gonzalez, Horowitz. I'm fine with any of these Pirates, I guess. If they're unowned and you get leverage off of a pitcher and you're playing chalk around it, which is the case, I'm fine with any Pirates. So I guess back-to-back games, two of my favorites. We're going to go through a good amount of these afternoon games that I'm not going to have much interest in bats.

31:20

Yeah, I mentioned I do want to talk in the lefties. They have two active lefties right now in the bullpen for the Pirates. One of them is their closer in Montgomery. So you don't really have to. If he comes in, your stack is dead anyways. The other one is a high leverage guy in Gregor Soto. Right. So.

31:37

You might not even see either one of them, which does help the case as well for the White Sox if you need more kind of edging there. But White Sox are probably going to be on my main team as a five-man stack because I already know I'm eating the ChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ pitching. So that's one way to differentiate there. And then I can play some of the good – other plays is like a two-man stack. And hopefully I get the two that are the highest scoring in a chalkier offense.

32:01

So that's kind of how I'm planning to approach it there. But I do like your leverage as well on Sean Burke. And after looking at it, I probably am going to also temper expectations in terms of Burke, in terms of my portfolio, just because I don't really want to play thirty percent to get over the field when I want to play so much more of the top three guys.

32:19

So I'd rather just save some of that ownership and salary and just just drop down. So I do like that call that you alluded to there. Cool. Getting more lockstep as the show goes on. Love to see it. All right, next game on the slate. Your Milwaukee Brewers and my Milwaukee Brewers, but you got the shirt on, taking on the Chicago Cubs. The Miz and Davis Peterson on the mound. I'm definitely not playing the Cubs against Miz. I'll let you talk about the Brewers.

32:46

I'll admit I do not love them for DFS today. A ten-game slate is pretty big. I'm thinking you're going to need ten-plus runs, eight-plus runs, or if you are just scoring seven or eight, multiple homers. The Brewers are tough to figure out when you're just picking one-offs. I think if I had to, I'd go cheap, Garrett Mitchell or Lara. But, man, Lara is a complete stud in the outfield. But I don't love the Brewers as a five-man stack today. Tell me if you see it otherwise.

33:14

Yeah, I mean, I don't love them because they get a bunch of pinch hit guys in there, risk guys in there when a lefty starts here in Peterson. I don't think Peterson very good, but he is good against lefties. So that does mitigate this. Not good, but he's pretty solid. He can strike guys out, limits hard contact, keeps the ball on the ground.

33:33

So anytime the Brewers are facing a ground ball guy in Peterson where he's got almost a fifty fifty plus percent ground ball right here um it does scare me Bowers if he's in there lefty lefty I think is the best play um him and Chourio are my two favorites because they both hit for power they both get the ball in the air um and then Cooper Pratt and Joey Ortiz would be the next two guys with Andrew Vaughn so I mean like if you wanted to a seven nine one did you know that uh let me refresh here I just refreshed the stone if you want to look at the OK, so Chourio, Turang, Vaughn.

34:09

So Vaughn a pretty solid play hitting third. He's going to be kind of popular, I would assume there, but popular on a ten game slate. It's everything's going to kind of spread out there. So I think he's an interesting play. Contreras has been decent. Gary Sanchez in there. He's a big pinch hit risk.

34:23

Um lara switch hitter so you don't have to worry about him so I would like I like I actually think that you could stack the Brewers in the back half here with I like back half more like Gary Sanchez lara ortiz pratt and then Chourio is kind of how I would prefer to stack them those five because yeah Chourio is expensive the rest of them are free You got the back half.

34:44

So if the Brewers do get OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, it's going to be guys like Turang, Vaughn, Contreras. So you leave those out. You're playing the back half of guys with power and you can still spend up. Right. So maybe that's a team where you pair up Misiorowski and just say, hey, if Miz has eight strikeouts through three innings or four innings, maybe the Cubs just punt this off and kind of just look for for the next one to get it.

35:08

Game back and you see the lesser relievers coming out of the pen so I always do like to do that um but Brewers aren't one of my top stacks overall I I do think as kind of fillers and salary savers I think they're interesting and then chario is a spend up I think a really good play he's had a really good last month um historically hits left-handed pitching really well um he just hits the ball hard hits it in the air so I do think he has upside and he will definitely swipe as well Yeah, I don't love the Brewers, but I do prefer bottom half if I used any, which would be more mini stacks to, again, fit expensive pitching.

35:42

And, man, I guess the Stone, this will refresh, but they're saying don't even worry about the bottom half of the Cubs order. Just hit the X and Sabres him on all of them because they're not going to do anything against the Miz.

35:54

But, yeah, this will be – I mean, I will say if you can afford PCA – yeah I mean right now that dude is red hot oh seven percent I mean mcgill has not given up a home run all year and uh pca just didn't even care right and I mean he put it outside corner he painted it and he just yeah yeah so I mean he's unconscious if you have the $6,800 He's a great differentiation piece, but I don't know how you can play that over a guy like Ohtani in a much better matchup.

36:26

And Otani's even not going to be super popular there because it's hard to afford those guys, and I'm not sacrificing pitching to get one of them. So I did just want to mention, I think PCAs deserve the right to be mentioned on a DFS show in September when the dude's going to win the MVP. Fair enough, fair enough.

36:46

I would go Harris just because of the pricing obviously in the vacuum it feels like a kunya but sixteen hundred's enough honestly I need pitching I would say here's what's up go collect great to see ya I know you've been grinding the best ball streets can't wait it's almost here DFS yeah there you go yeah title it must be best ball season I'm done I'm officially done um yeah good amount this year hopefully we can get to the top when it's all said and done Yeah, we're going to get to this next game.

37:14

Yeah, Avery says, or Judge. This next game, Padres, Nats. But, yeah, we have this incorrect. We have Matt Waldron. But it is actually Riley Cornello is what I'm seeing. I mean, I don't think you're going to get more than a couple innings if you're lucky with them. And then you're going to see the bullpen. Nate, tell me if I'm wrong. But, yeah, the Padres, one of the higher team totals, run totals on the slate. Yeah.

37:38

I'm not really playing the Nats against Casey Mize, though, but I don't even love the Padres relative to, I think, four other teams I mentioned, five other teams, but I'll let you talk about it. Yeah, I mean, I don't love this game on either side. I think you can obviously play – you can always play some of these lefties from the Nats, Wood, Abrams, Lyle, but they're expensive, right?

38:01

That's the issue here, and I don't really want to play expensive guys with the spend-up pitching we have in a shitty ballpark like San Diego and against that bullpen. So there's just a lot of negatives to go against it there. I do think the Nats, just because I'm not a Casey Mize believer. He's been absolutely horrendous. I mean, he's given up slate-winning performances in like – every start over the last month. So I would not be shocked to see.

38:28

Um, the issue is then I just, I think then you're just, you're, you're kind of dead because once that bullpen comes in, um, it's going to be tough sledding there. Uh, obviously San Diego's bullpen is really good looking at their usage. As of late Maton Miller pitched three of the last four days, he's going to be unavailable, which does help more. John is same thing. Three of the last four days, that's their two best guys in that pen.

38:48

So, um, And their third best is probably Rodriguez there. So he's pitched three of the last four days. All three of those guys are probably unavailable, which does help the case there. And if Casey Mize is the same Mize he has been over the last month with a fourteen percent striker rate to eighty ISO allowed with a fly ball rate. Approaching forty percent and twelve percent barrels. I mean, this dude is getting hit hard and very hard.

39:11

The Nats have a ton of upside if that's the case. So I do think in large field stuff, Twenty-MaxA twenty-max contest lets each user enter up to 20 lineups. It sits between small-field formats like three-max and the largest 150-entry tournaments.Plan all 20 lineups before building any of them. Decide your stacks and exposure limits first, so the set works as a portfolio rather than 20 separate guesses.Full explanation ↗ even, I think getting some exposure to these Nats is definitely interesting on the San Diego side. I mean, I don't love it personally. I'd rather prefer the Nats side locked in for nine here. Ty France has been red hot. So if you wanted to play him, I think he's fine. Jackson Merrill. Tatis always has home run and still in the base upside.

39:39

This dude will run every chance he gets. So that's fine, but not one of the premier games to focus. And as shocking as it seems, I actually lean the Nats side just because it's a bet on Casey Mize not being right since he's been in San Diego. I really think – I think the Nats are one of the worst on the slate.

39:59

So if you think the Nats over the Padres, that just makes it easy to X out the Padres, even though I didn't even like them that much in the first place. So let's move on to – I mean, I guess it can't be a worse game, but it's still not a game I like much. Again, I think I made it pretty clear. I like the Royals-D-backs game.

40:15

I like the White Sox-Pirates, and I like the Yankees, and I don't think the Rays-Braves game is terrible. So I'll be hoping – early for the most part is where the damage is done in terms of offense. But Cal Quantrill, Bryce Miller on the mound, yeah, I don't like the Rangers much. I don't like the Mariners much. I usually don't love bats in this park. You made a case for Quantrill too.

40:35

Like the Mariners I was more on the fence with, like are they the sixth, seventh best, something like that. But you made a case for Quantrill that you had some interest in it, like no OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, and that kind of just took the Mariners' exposure away from me. So anything for you? Yeah, I mean, you look at Quantrill, I like to look at kind of a smaller sample the second half of the year because of arm fatigue. G-Ryzen talks about it all the time.

40:57

Arm fatigue sets in, right? A lot of these guys get traded. They're in new environments. You look at Quantrill over the last month, twenty six percent strikeout rate, four percent walk rate, ISO below one hundred. And ground ball rate almost fifty percent.

41:10

I mean, in and now he's pitching in in Seattle, one of the best pitching parks, if not the best pitching park in all of baseball against the Mariners, who do have a twenty five percent striker rate over the last month against right handed pitching. No interest for me in bats on either side of this one. I do think Quantrill, after looking at it, I'm probably going to replace Burke with Quantrill even more so than I already was going to at the start of the show.

41:38

So that's enough for me to say no bats here for this one. All righty. Before we do go to the next one, only a couple games left. Do want to head over again to the Ship It Nation website. As you can see, NFL almost here. You can get all of our content, the Discord, and access to SaberSim for only three hundred forty nine dollars. All of our content again. Showdown tomorrow, Thursday, Thanksgiving slates, all the main slates. We'll have plenty of shows.

42:05

Tambo, Hoop, and I will be live tomorrow at two Eastern. Sunday mornings, nine Eastern, we will be going live.

42:12

We'll have all the content as you can see under the NFL there it is right here showdown the stone Stone 2.0 point oh Slate Station with core reports and breakdowns on that you'll also be able to see the value report that our man rio is going to do normal Slate Station hoops player pool will be on here everything that we had last year after we get some data of the dvp rankings again core reports are on there Tambo, Matt Belman, and Ham, all of their slate stations, their slate write-ups, quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, hoops, player pool, Rios Valley reports, projections, ownership on both sites.

42:50

The stone, the best tool in the game, the Stone 2.0 point O, which you're able to hand build. Plug in different like virtual hand build, and it's all color coded. We will show a lot of that off on the shows. But again, NFL only for the year if you want that. Otherwise, bottom left, join the nation, multiple different options, five days for nineteen dollars, which I think is a great way to start if you haven't tried us out.

43:11

And if you're just looking for monthly NFL, you can see that right there for SaberSim, only twenty dollars more. And of course, if you just are playing MLB, if you're one of the few people out there, we still do have like two months of MLB left, less than a dollar a day. You can get in with us. And we're excited to continue to grind MLB. Even during NFL season, we will have shows a good amount of September.

43:34

You can find a show schedule right here on the website every single day as well. So definitely do get in the Discord. If you do join us at The Nation, that is where we'll be releasing the link for the Ship It Gamel, which you can see, $45,000 plus in cash and prizes. All right, let's get to the next game on the slates. The chalkiest team in terms of bats in the Toronto Blue Jays taking on the A's, Jack Perkins, Jose Soriano.

44:01

For me, it's just when I'm eating this much chalk pitching, like I just can't really stomach eating chalk Blue Jays. If I were to play them, I think that's where you play like a rope or something like that. The appeal for the Blue Jays, obviously, is their high run total, but also their prices. It allows you to spend up at pitching.

44:17

Easily it's too much OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ for me to really eat I do not want to go like Sean Burke Soriano or completely off the board there I guess we liked enough bats like the Pirates if I'm playing the Blue Jays maybe I'm playing the Pirates with it or the Brewers or just a really really low own stack so um but still I don't love it but that's what I would have to do what are your thoughts and then what are your thoughts on the a's Yeah, I mean, this is probably one of the better matchups that Toronto could see as an opposing starting pitcher.

44:45

Perkins, really good against lefties, horrible against righties. He's going to see a bunch of righties here. I mean, the Blue Jays have been miserable against right-handed pitching over the last month, for sure. I mean, . They don't strike out, so you always have that. But, I mean, the park and the weather doesn't really affect you if you don't hit for power anyways, right? And, I mean... None of these guys hit the ball in the air.

45:08

So I know Perkins is a fly ball, right? But I mean, this dude, this team has everyone. I mean, a team ground ball rate of almost fifty percent fly ball rate, less than twenty percent. I mean, they just don't hit the ball in the air. So you're going to probably see a lot of baby style run support, which just doesn't win tournaments and they're going to be owned. So I would much rather play the Yankees. Than the Blue Jays.

45:34

I'm going to play the Dodgers over the Blue Jays. I know they're cheap. I'd actually probably rather play the chalkier D-backs than the Blue Jays, personally, if picking one of them. I don't think they'll be more ChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗. Could be wrong, but I got Blue Jays higher. Yeah, I mean, yeah, if that's the case, then yeah, I'm out on the Blue Jays here.

45:56

Alejandro Kirk and Springer would be probably my two favorite bats if going there, and I think those two make some sense in a mini stack. I've noticed a lot of flashback when I'm looking at winning lineups and stuff. I seeing a lot more people buy into the ownership, the chalkier stacks is more like the mini stack, which has historically been the opposite way.

46:18

I know you and I have been in team camp of avoid the chalk stacks is kind of a two or three man stack. But I've actually seen a lot of winning and very sharp players differentiate with their five man upside stack and then still play the good plays like a spring or like a Kirk is kind of a two man fill in two off positions, a one off catcher position. Obviously got three outfield positions to fill. So something like that, I think makes some sense.

46:45

And is actually kind of sharp overall in terms of the roster construction there, especially when you're eating the chalk pitching. So I did want to allude to that. But outside of that, don't really love the Blue Jays into this kind of ownership here. And then Soriano, I mean, it's hard to play any of the other side of this one. Soriano just keeps the ball on the ground, doesn't really get beat up.

47:06

I mean, Lawrence Butler, sure, if you wanted to play him, I think he'd be fine. Gilas fills a third base position. Jeff McNeil has been had a kind of a crazy last two months or so. I'm not a Jeff McNeil guy, but second base is a terrible position there. So you could. But yeah, I just I'm out on this game compared to what The FieldThe field is everyone else entered in a contest, the group of lineups you are competing against.Before you build, picture the typical lineup in your contest. Then decide on purpose where you'll match it and where you'll step away from it.Full explanation ↗ is going to be. Yeah. Soriano is just something I like never pick against. I mean, the run total is good.

47:30

The ownership's low, the pricing's fine. So everything besides that I can get around, they're low enough. I'm fine with it. I probably prefer the A's to the Blue Jays actually, again, just because of that ownership, but great call. I mean, contest flashback. I just talked a lot about our deals and our partner optimized or our partner optimizer and SaberSim having contest flashback. That's a starter opportunity. Or an ultimate package that you have to have.

47:54

Again, I think the starter is the best deal out there. You can also do it for the month for single sports. SaberSim doesn't even offer like a single sport, just NFL.

48:04

So if you want to do that, again, I think the starter pack to be able to not only get SaberSim's projections and ownership to then use ours and average it out to get a second source, but also you're able to go back into different sports, into the different contests and see what sharp people are doing, which Nate just alluded to. About chalky stacks in the secondaries. So I like that, Nays. That's awesome stuff. Maybe I'll have to look into that more.

48:28

I mean, just a name I would look at in contest flashback is Hebrew Cheetah, an absolute crusher for sure in the MLB streets and all sports. All right, two games left. This one's easy for me. Quinn Matthews, Landon Rope, Giants Cardinals. These were two of the pitchers that I had interest in outside of the three top arms. That definitely means I'm not stacking against them. Take it away if you have anything in this one for bats. Yeah, no, just his more value here.

48:54

Quinn Matthews, obviously a lefty, has command issues to the right side. So Jonah Cox is a cheap guy. He's been hitting the ball really well, has some power too, especially against lefties, so he'd be fine. Kristen Koss is a cheap guy. Devers, if you believe in him, even lefty-lefty, I mean, this dude's been – murdering baseballs over last month. So just some kind of little fillers if you wanted to.

49:17

There you still do have two really bad bullpens here, so if the starters don't go, you could see this game go. I'm not going to be on it, though, in this ballpark. I think just those couple guys that I mentioned there. And then on the Cardinals side, I'd rather stack the Cardinals side because I do think Landon Roop is the guy that most people are going to run to as the cheap guy.

49:37

So you're going to see probably when people are spending up for the Dodgers and getting Ohtani, Freeman, Betts, Muncie, those guys in there, you're probably going to see a scooball pairing with Landon Roop, something like that. So, if you wanted to, I mean, Cardinals have been better over the last month. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I'm not a root believer. I haven't been on him. I don't think he's very good.

50:22

And I think he's going to be overplayed on the slate just because of his projection and the the slate at hand with the spend up arms. And I just I mean, Cardinals just don't strike out outside of a couple of guys, two guys. And yeah, so that'd be my interest here. But not a not a focus game by by any means. Definitely hoping this game is not optimal when it's all said and done. No bats for me.

50:47

All right, last game of the night, the Dodgers and the Reds. Nick Lodolo, Tyreek Scooball on the mound. I do not think that you... Yeah, I'm going to say it's negative EV, I think, to stack against any of the top three pitchers on this slate today. When I say stack, I mean five-man stack. If you want a two-man stack, minis, sure, that's never negative EV, but not something I'm looking to do.

51:07

Big enough slate with ten games, enough very LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ spots that I think have more likelihood to get there. The Dodgers, though... Yeah, like I said, when I'm playing one of these two pitchers above, I am a lot more likely to play these Dodgers. And, again, it's like no shit. Everyone is. But still, I mean, the Dodgers aren't showing to get that that much ownership. These two pitchers are low enough owned. I'm totally fine playing a Ms.

51:30

Quinn Hughes – or Quinn Matthews, I think it's an NHL, and then stacking five-man Dodgers and going from there. Like if – I think the Yankees are the best sack on the slate in raw. Like who's going to score the most runs. I got Yankees. And then I would say Dodgers. So if I think that's the case, they obviously have a lot of power one through nines in play.

51:52

And I'll probably be hoping the lineup comes out a little late, late game at ten, ten Eastern, the longer the lineups waits, the more people get impatient and plug something else in. So, and let's go. I just took a, I took Stevenson a couple days ago in my big three-K best ball draft in the DraftKings streets. So Stevenson – or not moonwalking. Trayvon Henderson moonwalking, and Stevenson is rocket-chipping up the ADP ranks. But no one gives a fuck.

52:22

That's watching this about best ball, just about DFS. So what are you doing to miss Dodgers, Reds, and A's? Yeah, Dodgers – I have the Dodgers over the Yankees in terms of ranking them, but – It's hard to go wrong with either. I'm just – Lodolo's a fly ball guy facing a fly ball lineup in Dodger Stadium when they have school ball, their big acquisition on the hill, right? So, I mean, I love this spot. Cincinnati's bullpen is atrocious as well.

52:52

Lodolo has some strikeout ability to the left side. If you look at the last month, kind of smoking mirrors there. I don't put too much. But what he does is he's giving up a shit ton of power to both sides. I mean, Mookie looks great. Teo Hernandez looks great. Edmund looks really good. You're probably going to get Rojas and Kiki Hernandez in there. I'd say the bigger pinch hit risk, it's tough.

53:13

They're both pinch hit risk there, but if they both start at the same time, it's probably a little bit watered down compared to if only one of them starts there. So I do think those guys are fine. I'd lean Kiki more so than Miguel Rojas. And then Will Smith being back here does always help this lineup against the lefty. So the Dodgers actually aren't that hard to afford. Outside of Ohtani, right? And Otani's lefty lefty.

53:39

So if I had to lean, I'd rather just not play Ohtani with the Dodger stacks and just play the kind of the back half. And I would avoid playing Miguel Rojas and Kiki Hernandez together in the same lineup. Because if I'm going to take a zero or three points with two at-bats, I only want one of those in there, not two of them. So do worry about that.

54:01

I tend to make a rule in Sabre with things like that or cap ownership on those two specific pinch hit guys. But, yeah, Dodgers look like the best stack overall on the slate to me, and I'm going to be heavily invested in them. Kiki, do you love me? I'm going to take that. Yeah, during the G-Rise. And he can't be here on the Tuesday show. And Kiki is going to get the start against a lefty here. So glad title filled the shoes there.

54:31

Absolutely. I'm in for a G-Rising seat on Tuesday with Nate, so I had to do it. Yeah, maybe if you're maxing one Kiki Rojas, which I think is a good way to do it, I would definitely get more of Kiki, not only for the fact of, yeah, we love it on the show, but I think it all started because I love Kiki Hernandez. I have for many of years. The dude always gets the job done.

54:51

I have seen multiple home runs, for sure I won at Miller Park, but he just has big-time hits in big-time spots whenever his name's called. And, yeah, G-Ryze, when he does that, always have to bring it up. So I love the Dodgers. And like you said, they're not really expensive. They're actually, I would argue, way too cheap outside of pretty much Ohtani. So I like it, and I'd be fine playing a Roper or a Matthews. I keep saying Hughes. A Roper or a Matthews.

55:18

And then one of the big arms with the five-man sack for the Dodgers. Yeah, that's, I mean, broad slate for me. Bats early, the main three pitchers at Oracle Park, and then go from there and hope you get the right combo when it's all said and done. Final thoughts for you, Nades. Yeah, no, final thoughts. Headline with the top three horses up at top. Cal Quantrill is kind of my sneaky, unowned guy. That's also a pivot off of those guys out in San Fran.

55:45

White Sox, I think, are super, super interesting on this slate. Nobody's going to play them, so I like them quite a bit. And, yeah, hopefully we see those Ship It Nation logos up at the top. If you're not in my SatelliteA satellite, also called a qualifier, is a contest whose prizes are tickets into a more expensive contest or a live final instead of cash. Tickets are free entries into that bigger event.Before building, compare the number of seats to the size of the field. The share of entries that win a ticket tells you whether to build like a cash game or a tournament.Full explanation ↗ contest, hopefully then I see your logo behind me in those so I can chase that million bucks on Sunday. But, yeah. No, it should be fun. Last full slate of baseball here before we got football back in our lives.

56:10

Back to back days, Wednesday, tomorrow and Thursday. I know you'll be on with hoop and title or Tambo. Excuse me. Break that down. So make sure you check out on this show. And then obviously we'll have. You covered for the full slate of NFL stuff over the weekend. And I mean, I don't know too many companies out there giving off $45,000 in free roll. And that's just minimum. Right.

56:33

Plus SaberSim packages, things like that in terms of ship a game. So. Kind of a no brainer if you're not you don't have a home for NFL. You can get the whole season right there for for three forty nine. So and it gets you a chance to play into basically a live final with no additional cost. Right. You're not forking out money each week to enter a contest to play for kind of a.

56:57

Pretty crazy top prize for majority of the people that are entering that. I mean, most of those people, most of our member base isn't playing one hundred fifty teams are playing ten to ten to fifty bucks a slate. Right. And they now have a chance to play for five figures in a small field at the end of the year just from being a member there. So, yeah, well, love to have you here.

57:16

And now's the best time because you'll never see these this pricing again once main slate locks on Sunday. Yeah, and again, the nice thing about it is this year, if you're in the Discord, right when the link drops, you have your NFL notifications on, you click that link, you get on DraftKings, you'll be able to have a shot every single week unless you are already qualified in one, which is different from last year and just is another reason to get in.

57:44

To the Discord to join either the NFL only package or an all access package. They both get you qualified monthly or greater for the Ship It Nation games, which again is posted in the Discord over five figures and prizes and can only go up if there is some success in the share of ship stuff. Great to see you, Michael. No, definitely not Travis Duarte. Refresh, good to see you, but it'll be Ms. It'll be Scooball, Ms., and Schlittler as the top three.

58:12

Michael W. Said, great show. Appreciate it. I got no home run calls, but Nades, if you do have one, you can say it, and then I'll let you hit the outro for us. You can say the outro. I'll hit the actual buttons, but if you have a home run call, you can give it to the people. Home run call. I'm going to ride my guy. I'm going to go to the White Sox. I'm going to go to Tristan Peters. He treats me well.

58:34

Hit seven, $3,100 on probably my second favorite stack of the slate there. So, yeah, good luck tonight in those contests. Hope to see those Ship It Nation logos at the top. I'll be back tomorrow as well. Title for the NFL breakdown. I don't know if we're doing an MLB show, but nonetheless, title. We'll see you guys tomorrow. You all too. For title. We'll see you guys next time. Peace. Peace. Peace.

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  1. 0:00Intro
  2. 3:33Pitching
  3. 12:10NFL Memberships and Ship It Games
  4. 15:44Rockies at Yankees
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  10. 40:25Rangers at Mariners
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  14. 55:22Final Thoughts and Home Run Call

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