MLB DFS Process | DraftKings & FanDuel Picks, Plays & Slate Breakdown | Monday, 09/14/26

And then probably some cheap guys like Jonah Tong, something like that is kind of how the slate shakes up here in terms of pitcher ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, where the field wants to go to. Talk to me here. It came above. What are you looking at in terms of pitcher? Are you messing with Corbin Burns? Still still returning back from that injury there. Kate Anderson blew up last time out, now gets to match up against the Angeles. He's looked pretty good to me.

His ownership should be pretty low, but again, he's got a bunch of righties in that lineup there. And then how are you going to handle Reed Detmerschalk and Jose Soriano, who are both going to command a pretty hefty chunk of ownership here tonight? Yeah, for me, it's a two-man race up at the top. I do like the Reid Detmers chalk. He's been pretty good, you know, for most of the season.

You know, I think he had, what, over thirty his last outing, twenty-five plus before that. He's been dominant. Now he gets his Seattle team that – You know, Max Scherzer struck them out, struck them out ten times not too long ago. So I do like Reid Detmers. I'm not afraid of that chalk. And then I like Jose Soriano as well. Interested to get your take on him. He was, I would say better at the beginning of the season.

It's kind of, you know, slowly come down, but at $8,500 on this slate with not a lot of top end arms, he's going to be my number two. Troy, you know, just talk about Troy Melton real quick. He is the highest priced pitcher over on DraftKings today, and he just hasn't done it recently. And in a game over thirteen in his last three starts or four starts, excuse me, he's But he does get, I would say, a good ballpark upgradeBallpark FactorsBallpark factors, also called park factors, measure how much a stadium raises or lowers scoring compared with an average park. Altitude, fence distances, foul territory and typical weather shape them, and some parks favor one side of the plate.Check whether a park factor is split by handedness. Some parks boost left-handed power while doing little for righties, and that split can change which hitters you stack.Full explanation ↗ in Toronto.

But I got Detmers squarely in front of him. And then Sands Alcantara, I'll just touch on him because he's the third-ranked pitcher from a price standpoint. Been very bad and was very brutal his last time out. So I don't think I'm going to get there. Not on the road against Arizona. Does fairly well against righties. And I certainly think you can play Cade Anderson as well.

He was on the show, I think two shows ago, I did with Belman on a Friday night at home against the Athletics and let us down. But now he's on the road against this Angeles team. We know this Angeles team loves striking out, but that's generally against a righty. So I would say Cade's probably three or four for me, but it's Detmers, it's Soriano for me. And then Corbin Burns, no thank you. First game since coming off the IL. What was it, Nades?

Like, sixty pitches, fifty-five pitches, something like that, that he threw. I'm just not there yet, not on tonight's slate anyway. Yeah, so I do want to start with Reid Detmers. He looks like SP one for me. I don't really care about the ownership. He looks like the pretty much the only starting pitcher on the slate that I see a real strikeout ability. I really kind of have to have it score that he has the potential to put up.

Doesn't mean he's obviously going to post that score, but I do think he is the overall best starting pitching play at $8,800 or like him quite a bit. I do think Kate Anderson, I have more interest in Kate Anderson than it seems like you do. I do have him over Jose Soriano personally myself. I think we're going to get an ownership discount there as well.

The Angeles, yeah, you like them right-handed starting pitchers against him more, but Angeles still have a twenty six percent strikeout rate against left handed pitching on the season. You draw that back over the last month. It's about a twenty four percent or twenty three percent strikeout rate. So there's still strikeouts to be had there overall. In terms of props on the slate, he still has a five and a half K prop juice to the over there.

So I do have Kate Anderson ahead of Jose Soriano Soriano. I don't love here tonight, to be honest. He is a ground ball guy going to kind of go out there and roll you up some ground balls there. But I just I'm not I haven't been the biggest Soriano guy personally myself. His strikeouts just haven't been there, especially over the last month. He's down at about a sixteen percent strikeout rate.

You look at the Tigers over the last month or so, right around kind of twenty four, twenty four percent strikeouts, give or take there. He really strikes out a lot more righties. And the issue is, is he's only going to see three righties in this lineup. He's going to see six lefties where his strikeouts drop off a cliff. He's down around twelve percent in terms of that. So that's why I do have some worry about Jose Soriano.

So for me, up in the top tier, it's definitely Reid Detmers personally and then Kate Anderson. And then I think the pitching pool lives below $8,000, where I think there is a lot of good guys to play down here. I'll throw it over to you. A couple of guys that I'm looking at here. Quinn Matthews looks pretty good to me at $7,700. Gets that matchup against the Giants. What now with Devers on the shelf?

Which was their obviously horse over the last month and a half or so. He's been red hot. Now he's on the shelf there. They kind of shut him down for the season. So I like Quinn Matthews quite a bit. Dean Kremer, Jonah Tong, I think are both playable as well. Dean Kremer all the way down at $6,600 would be my preferred between him and Jonah Tong. But I do think all three of those guys are definitely playable.

Will Warren, I think, in tournaments is a pretty sneaky play as well at $7,300. So do you think there's a lot more value pitchers on the slate than spend up? And that's kind of how I'm approaching it outside of Kate Anderson and Reid Detmers. But how do you see this value tier here? Yeah, I'm with you. I like this of the sub $8,000's, if you will. Let's start with.

Yeah, let's start with Quinn Matthews, who, like you said, Rafaela Devers, sixty sixty day I.L., which inevitably ends his season. It's an offense that's gotten better, but without Devers, his bat in there. Quinn Matthews just shoots up the board at $7,700. He's still he's still too cheap, in my opinion. That's one of one of Belman's pitchers that he likes. Jonah Tong. I really like Jonah Tong tonight against this Baltimore team. You get him at home.

He was dynamite in his last start in Miami, cruising through that game, just striking, striking them out left and right. I think he had $7,000's and then just the bottom fell out, I believe, in the fifth inning. I think he was able to make it through that fifth inning, but did give up four runs there. So his total DraftKings points came down, but I think he's squarely in play.

And then Will Warren, interesting, his roller coaster season up and down was up last time. Now he goes on the road to Minnesota, which I still think this is a gettable spot. No Byron Bucks, and obviously he's been out for quite some time. So, yeah, those three would kind of be at the top of the list for me. I know you mentioned Dean Kremer, but no thanks for me, not against that Yankees lineup anyway. Yeah, I agree.

I probably have a lot more interest actually in the Yankees bats, especially if I do think people do go to Dean Kremer. He's projected right around twenty percent or so. I'd probably actually just rather mess with Davis Peterson amongst those two. But really, I don't think you need to play any of them. I think Quinn Matthews is really good. Will Warren, those two guys in particular look really good to me. And then Jonah Tong would be third. I'm just a little worried.

I do see kind of the masses going to Jonah Tong as SP two paired up with Reid Detmers there. So that's why I have Warren and Matthews ahead of him. But I do think Tong's playable as well. And then it'd probably just be Davis Peterson if punting all the way down. I think he makes a little sense against your Atlanta Braves there.

So summary for me, Detmers, Kate Anderson, top two guys for me, Quinn Matthews, Will Warren, Jonah Tong are kind of the five main guys that I'm focused on here. What's your kind of five main? And then we'll talk hitting here. Yeah, we're kind of aligned on pitching outside of Soriano. I have Soriano obviously a lot higher than you do. But, yeah, I couldn't have said it any better. Will Warren up there. Jonah Tong is up there for me, like I said.

And then Reid Detmers is going to lead that charge against this Mariners lineup. Yeah, so Williams brings it up here. Roth does have it tagged as orange-yellow, so it looks pretty risky right there. So that would probably take me off those pitchers there. Will Warren is kind of a fringe guy, more of a tournament play anyways for me. So that's enough to kind of take him off.

I would probably add in Davis Peterson then as the fifth guy, as just a punt value guy there if I'm removing Will Warren because of the weather risk. I didn't really want to play Dean Kremer anyway, so I'm out on him. So, yeah. Put it at Davis Peterson over Will Warren with the weather risk. If we get more clarity leading up to lock, I do think Will Warren a pretty interesting play overall.

And then obviously when we get to the Yankees-Bats, the Yankees-Bats are going to look good as well. But there is some risk there to monitor. So make sure you do pay attention there leading up to lock before you kind of go in there and start building NFL teams. Let's jump over, talk the stone here. First game on the docket, we do have the Tigers. We do have the Blue Jays, Jose Soriano, Troy Melton. Melton, as you alluded to earlier, hasn't been the best as of late.

I think it makes some sense here if you wanted to attack him with some of these Blue Jays. Blue Jays are pretty cheap as well, but this is still not a game that I love from a DFS perspective here in retrospect to some of the other teams on the slate. How do you see this one, though, to start us off? Yeah, I'm team never Blue Jays, right?

I just – I mean, on a shorter slate, obviously they got a better chance to be on the winner. Very rarely in the winter. But, hey, your boy Vlad did go yard on Saturday – Friday or Saturday, Nades, at home. I think his first bomb in the Rogers Center this year, which is kind of wild to say that it was in September. But I don't think I'm getting to the Blue Jays tonight.

I said I do like Soriano, but I think on a shorter slate, eight games, right, if you wanted to get different. And get some of these Tigers, even some of those righties. I don't hate that. Max Clark, Dylan Dingler, Riley Greene, somebody like that. I don't hate a Tiger stack as kind of like a – I'll call it contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗. I don't think they're going to get much ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. But to me, Soriano a better play than the Tigers themselves. Yeah, I like that.

Next game on the slate here, we do have – The Orioles and the Mets. Jonah Tong going to be one of the more popular pitchers on the slate for a good reason, right? Always strike out a ton, especially on the road against right-handed pitching. Brandon Young on the other side. Not a horrible pitcher, not a great pitcher by any means. I think he could play some of these Mets. If you wanted to, mainly Juan Soto, Lindor stand out to me. Those two guys look pretty good.

Some cheap guys in the back half if you needed some salary savings and A.J. Ewing and Bratt Beatty. But another game that I don't love from a DFS perspective, again, we're kind of comparing everything here to Coors Field, where I do like both sides for sure. But I definitely like that rocky side at ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ there. So that's kind of the comparison here. You're really putting everything up against the Padres, if you will, on this slate.

I do think that the Mets make some sense here, but how do you see this one? Yeah, the Mets offense has been so much better, at least in September anyway. I know they struggled yesterday. I think they got shut out yesterday. But the Mets offense as a whole has been a whole lot better. Now they get Brandon Young, a guy we're not afraid to pick on. So I don't hate this Mets team. I'm not a big fan of this ballpark, Nate.

So, like you said, I mean, it's going to be a lot of cores. It's going to be a lot of Padres going up against Sugano, arguably the worst pitcher in the majors. So I think in deep field, you know, deep field tournaments, right? Twenty plus teams. You might have a handful of Mets, but I'm not going out of my way to stack them. Not in this part. But if you did, it'd be those. I'll call it.

Let's just say the top the top end guys. Right. I probably cut it off at, you know, Jared Young Carlson. What is it? Benji Benj or whatever you say his name. He steals a ton of bags. I love him. Obviously love Lindor and Soto. They've put up runs and bunches. So I don't hate the Mets stack. And then. Oh, I'm torn on the Orioles. Probably not on the Orioles. Like if you're telling me Jonah Tong is what, Nate? It's like thirty, forty percent.

Like do we want to get, you know, funky and have a team or two of them? Like it's just, you know, to be to be contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗, possibly. But if I'm playing in one team or three teams, I'm not getting any Orioles. Yeah, I mean, you are going to get some leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ against Jonah Tong here. He's been really good over the last month, much better than he has over the course of the season there, right around the thirty four percent strikeout rate.

That's why people are going there. The O's do strike out a ton, but he does give up some power and fly balls. So looking at that from the O's side, if you wanted to go there, Pete Alonzo stands out. Dylan Beavers, Kobe Mayo, Jackson Holliday, even those kind of main guys there do have some upside and Cowser even as well.

So Cowser, Mayo, Beavers, Alonzo, those kind of four would be your leverage plays there against one of the more popular, but this city field is terrible for hitting. So you do have that downside there as well. It's just more of the leverage on a shorter slate when people are probably going to be a little more lazy in the MLB streets here with NFL going on tonight as well. Next spot, we are in Wrigley here. Wind blown out at Wrigley.

It's not the best weather, but it's kind of blowing from right to left out more towards that left foul pole. Right around fifteen miles an hour. I don't know what the gusts are going to do. So this is definitely going to play above average in terms of hitting. You're going to get the Cubs pretty low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ here and the Braves. I love this game from a DFS perspective here. This is my favorite spot to go to outside of Coors Field. I like both sides of it.

Obviously, you do have that really good Braves bullpen. The issue is, is Ronaldo Lopez is not good. Hopefully the Cubs can get on him early if they don't. It's going to be tough sledding for your Cubs stacks there, but I do think the Cubs still make a lot of sense here. The Braves bullpen did use three relievers yesterday, thirty four pitches, fourteen and seventeen kind of taxed overall on the Cubs side in terms of the bullpen.

Not a great bullpen by any means, but they also used three relievers yesterday as well. I like this game for offense here. I probably lean the brave side just because Davis Peterson been absolutely atrocious. And the only reason I mentioned him earlier is because of his salary. But how do you see this one here? Overall, Braves have not been great against left-handed pitching. Peterson has not been great. It's a battle of two shitters over the last month or so. How do you see this one?

Yeah, I'm with you. I think this game, like if you wanted to get different from the Rockies game, this would be the one. You talked about the win. Hopefully it picks up a little bit. I mean, you don't need me to tell you PCA is probably one of the best plays on the slate tonight, so you are going to have to pay that big boy price tag. He profiles very well versus Lopez, like Michael Bush as well.

Tonight in this lineup, Ian Happ as well, strikes out a little bit too much. So you're going to get roughly three to five innings of Bernardino Lopez, depending on how it goes for him. They have been yanking them out in the fifth inning. And like you said, that Braves bullpen is pretty good, but hopefully it's nine to nothing or whatever when they pull them out and they put in one that's not as good.

So I like this Cubs team a little bit. Then on the flip side, I like the Braves as well. You talked about Davis Peterson. Braves know this guy from his Mets days. But there is a lot of pinch hit risk, especially at the bottom half of that lineup. Ison Kim probably going to come out. Sean Murphy potentially. Mauricio Dubon maybe as well once they start bringing in the pin with guys like Mikey Skrimski.

So it's Cubs over Braves for me, but certainly don't hate the Braves either. You know, one through five, even lefty lefty with Olson and or Harris. I don't hate that as well. That's a way to get different off those Padres as well. Yeah, I still do think you can play Sean Murphy $2,600. So I do think he hit he's pretty interesting in there. Do you know if Drake Baldwin or Murphy doing the catching tonight? Which one's D.H. And is it Baldwin D.H.

And I don't know. I would assume it's Murphy. I don't know why they put Murphy as the DH when they potentially could. But, yeah, let me look it up while you're talking. Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, so I think Murphy pretty free to be pinch hit risk there if he's doing the catching. Um, obviously they could put Baldwin in there, but, um, typically if Murphy going to start catching, they don't really like switching the catcher, um, mid game there. So I do think Murphy is nice.

And, uh, the little wraparound eight, one, three little Murphy Acuña Olson, I think is pretty interesting there. Olson hits left. He's pretty good. Peterson. I don't think he's going to go super long anyways. He kind of goes right around that mid-seventies in terms of pitch count there. So then you're going to obviously get a bunch of righties for Olson there. So I like the Braves, but I do prefer the Cubs side with the added in there.

And it's the lefties that you want to start with. For the Cubs, PCA, Conforto, Michael Bush, Ian Happ, Pedro Ramirez, who's had a really good last month or so. All those guys look really good, and then obviously you can always play Bregman, Kelly, Suzuki. This whole lineup's been really good against right-handed pitching. Tons of power, low strikeouts. I think this is a really good spot for the Cubs. Ownership's going to be low.

Yeah, that Braves bullpen is scary, but if they can jump on Lopez early, you could see the Braves just punt this game here. As a Brewers fan, I don't want to see the Cubs win games, but I do like them quite a bit here from a DFS perspective tonight. Next one, Yankees. Murphy is catching, by the way, Nate. Okay, yeah, I do think he's safe then from pinch hit if he's doing the catching. They typically don't switch mid-game in terms of catchers.

Twins, Yankees, Will Warren, Dean Kremer on the mound. This is the game with the weather risk. Again, Roth has it tagged as orange, orange-yellow right now. They could postpone this and just play a double header tomorrow. That's the, that's the risk here. Obviously the first game of the first game of the series here on Monday, you'd still have Tuesday and Wednesday to make these games up. I would not be shocked to see him do that.

So we'll talk about it if this game does play. If the game does play, I do think the Yankees are really, really interesting here at no ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. I'm not a Dean Kremer guy overall. I think if the game does play, people might go to more so on Dean Kremer than they would be on the Yankees bats. He's been a miserable, tons of power given up, tons of fly balls, especially the lefties, Garcia, Rice, Bellinger, Jones, Wells. They all look really good.

And then obviously you've got Judge, Caballero, Lombard in there who can all do their own damage. But it's definitely starting with the lefties here. I think the Yankees are one of the top overall stacks on the slate if the game does play. But how do you see this one, the Yankees and the Twins? Yeah, obviously you're going to want to – Check the weather here. Yeah, I mean, Aaron Judge, he's been kind of – I believe he's been kind of cold since he's come back.

I like Aaron Judge tonight against Dean Kremer. Should have some success in this ballpark tonight. And then, yeah, I like Will Warren, but I don't mind picking off a couple of these lefties for the Twins if the game plays. Brooks Lee, Cody Clemens obviously being my two favorite ones, batting second and third tonight. But all in all, I don't think I'll get to the Yankees full stack And then the Twins probably won't get to them as well.

So you're saying the Yankees, they're not going to come with ownership just because why? Because of Coors and what else? Yeah, because of Coors and probably their price points, but price doesn't really matter. I mean, I ran the dry run. I got a hundred percent San Diego stacks. In terms of projected score. So that tells you right there, everyone's prioritizing San Diego. I'd gladly pivot to the Cubs, pivot to the Yankees. I like some of the other teams as well.

So I think the Yankees are super, super good. If this game does play, you're going to have to monitor it. But I mean, you're getting sub five percent ownership on the Yankees. Sign me up for that against Dean Kremer and that that that Twins bullpen. And I like the lefties, too, for the Twins. I mean, Brooks Lee, Cody Clemens, Josh Bell, those guys look good. You got Emanuel Rodriguez in there, a new guy they called up there, . He's shown some power a little bit there.

Actually seems to be a pretty solid hitter overall. You got Walker Jenkins in there, too. He's got a pretty solid pedigree. So I do like this game more so in the hitting environment as another pivot off of Coors Field there. So do have both of those teams on my short list of offense there, but – You do have to monitor it overall if the game does play for sure. Next spot, Landon Root, Quinn Matthews. Quinn Matthews looked really good to me. No Giants interest for me.

They're kind of mailing it in. I mean, look at this roster. Jonah Cox, Bryce Eldridge, Shea Wickham, Turner Hill, Bratt Harris, Bandura, Neiser, Grant McCray. I mean, this has got to be one of the worst major league lineups I've ever seen in my life. No thank you on that. Quinn Matthews is a smash here. I'm shocked he's not higher on than he is. I would not be shocked to see that kind of creep up as we lead to lock there, but I think he's a smash.

No Giants for me. Cardinals, not super interested against Landon Roop. Landon Roop, huge park downgradeBallpark FactorsBallpark factors, also called park factors, measure how much a stadium raises or lowers scoring compared with an average park. Altitude, fence distances, foul territory and typical weather shape them, and some parks favor one side of the plate.Check whether a park factor is split by handedness. Some parks boost left-handed power while doing little for righties, and that split can change which hitters you stack.Full explanation ↗ here going to St. Louis from Sam Fram, Burleson, I think you could play. Sagasi's been actually really good, and now he's up to the leadoff spot at $2,800 second base is a really weak position. So I think he makes some sense. Leo Bernal has shown some signs of life at catcher at switch hitter $3,100. I think he's kind of interesting there, but.

Outside of that don't really love this game it's more of kind of a one man uh one or two man little little mini stack action one off something like that in this spot but uh how do you see St. Louis and san fran nades I mean you took the words out of my mouth I mean this giant's lineup goodness gracious alive like no major league caliber hitters on this team outside of Bryce Eldridge um I mean yeah like look at that's it's a small sample but I mean, Quinn Matthews at home has been dynamite this year.

What do you call it? Shark red over blood red over on the giant side. And I was actually logged in looking up what Quinn Matthews' strikeout prop was and his run total was as well. Well, five and a half, five and a half K prop. Juice the under, actually. So if you like the over, you're going to get some. It's plus one, seventeen. Kind of what I'm seeing is the consensus right now.

I'm using the action network is just because it's kind of clean to see everything. There I haven't checked a bunch of books, but you can probably get some pretty good number on Quinn Matthews over that five and a half because he is juiced to the under. Yeah. Let's do it just for fun because I don't like that lineup. But, yeah, give me some Quinn Matthews all day, and then, yeah, you said it. Landon Root kind of – nah, been decent, I guess, at best.

And Seguis is batting at the top of the lineup. Yeah, Leo Bernal. Yeah, I like this Cardinals team. I think others will as well, similar to the Mets. I don't love this lineup or I'm sorry, I don't love this stadium, but I do love the top half of this lineup. They can do some damage as well. So yeah, give me the Cardinals as I'll call it a contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ as well.

If I'm playing, you know, five, five teams, I'm definitely having one Cardinals and maybe you can get there in like a three maxThree-MaxA three-max contest lets each user enter up to three lineups. It is a small step up from single-entry.Give each of your three lineups a clear role. Make sure they differ in at least one major decision, like the main stack or the most expensive player.Full explanation ↗. Yeah, I prefer probably the Rockies, probably the D-backs when we're going to get them over the Cardinals. But I do think they have some interesting pieces for cheap. Like I said, Segese, Berno, Burleson a little expensive, but he's great anytime you can get him. It'd be more of kind of the filler catcher at a onesie position, second base shortstop.

I think he's a nice value there, batting leadoff. So just those guys. Takes us to the most – I mean, look at this ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ here. I mean, you're talking a hundred and seventy percent combined ownership on the Padres. I don't think I've ever seen this. I know it's only an eight-game slate. I know it's a pretty weak pitching slate. It's Sabato on the mound. I understand the Padres have been better.

It's just – My gosh, if I'm playing tournaments tonight, it's got to be minus EV to go in there and play the Padres. That's just how I see it. I'm going to be off the Padres. If they beat me, they beat me. I'm playing limited lineups tonight with NFL on the docket. I think a lot of people are. You run projections. Padres are just getting littered throughout this lineup. Jackson Merrill looks really good. Obviously, Tatis, Machado, Salas looks really good. They're a young kid there.

He does have a big strikeout problem, but if he hits it, It's probably going to go pretty good in Coors Field there. But, I mean, you're talking this kind of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ with a team that just doesn't have a bunch of power. I know power isn't what you're looking for in Coors Field. You're just looking for balls in play because it's not the best home run park. But I understand Sugano's trash. I just I don't know.

I'd much rather prefer the rocky side of it against Casey Mize, who's been absolutely atrocious over the last month. Three or four. I sell fifteen percent striker rate fly ball rate higher than his ground ball rate. So I prefer the rocky side of it. McCarthy, Moniak, Kerrig, Rumfield, Goodman back in there. Tovar, Amador, even Connor Norby. I just much prefer the rocky side.

Give me the Rockies here tonight at one-third, one-fourth the ownership of the Padres, and that's kind of the flag I'm dying on. But Padres on paper are the best overall stack on the board. Hard to argue it. It's just I'm not doing it at this kind. I mean, you're seeing forty, fifty percent ownership on hitters on an eight-game slate when, I mean, the most likely outcome is they fail more often than not. So how do you see it? Yeah, similar. So I'm just looking at the lineup.

It just came out as you were talking earlier. So, Dustin Harris, we have him projected batting eight. He's actually batting second, which I think is a big move from him. His ownership is going to fly up the board. Yeah, he'll be – I mean, Dustin Harris at .三二百, a lefty against Sugano hitting second. In Coors Field, he'll probably be sixty percent on. I mean, it's hard to argue, but salary is not really existing on the slate.

I mean, if you're playing cash, you're playing probably five Padres here tonight. I know Title will have his cash stuff up here on the show, but – yeah, that's a good call up there. Cause yeah, Dustin Harris is going to fly up the boards. Uh, he's definitely the first spot you're starting with. It's probably him. Tatis, uh, Jackson Merrill are probably the first three clicks in cash. Uh, if you're playing those guys, but, uh, go ahead. Yeah.

And so, um, Jake Cunningworth slides down to the eight hole. I think his ownership comes down, but maybe, you know, maybe a good play. I mean, you said this Padres team, I mean, it's dink and dunk right in Colorado. I'm totally fine.

I mean, I think single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗, you should have at least a piece or two, but, They project so well, but in a tournament like a large field tournamentGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗, the way to win those is not to just jam in, you know, one through five with the Padres. And then you said it best, right? The Rockies look good. I don't like Mickey Moniak down in the seven hole. I do like Mickey Moniak. Let me restate that. I love Mickey Moniak.

I don't love it that he's down there batting seventh. He can do a lot of damage down there as well. Cole Carrick, I like him tonight. And then T.J. Rumfield, I like him as well. So I'm with you on this Rockies team. I mean, hopefully we get in the back and forth and it goes over that posted total. But I think you're going to need a piece of this game for sure to be on the winner tonight.

Yeah, I mean, it's kind of hurtful to say the Rockies are my favorite overall stack on the slate at ownership when you add in that San Diego bullpen. But you look, Matsui threw twenty-one pitches yesterday. Randy Vasquez, twenty-three. Hart, Peralta. I mean, Morjan, Bradley, Rodriguez. They're pretty cashed. I mean, Maton Miller is at forty-four pitches in his last three days. You think they're going to really... Throw him out there against the Rockies when they need him down the stretch in the playoffs here.

Same thing with Morjana and Rodriguez. Those guys threw back-to-back days Friday, Saturday. They had the day off yesterday. But, I mean, I don't know. I like the Rockies a ton here. I much prefer them to the Padres. I know that bullpen's good, but if they get up on – They get up on old Casey Mize here. You can see the Padres has pumped this game away overall. And I'll be completely off the Padres. I don't care. That's just a chance I'm going to take.

It's baseball. I mean, Hall of Famers fail seven out of ten times. I say it all the time. I'm not going to play them into like I mean, they could they could approach one hundred $8,200 percent combined ownership on an eight game slate when people are going to be more lazy press projections with NFL. I just I'll take my chances on one of the other fifteen teams outscoring them in terms of DFS for chasing the top prize in tournaments.

Mariners, Angeles, Reid Detmers, Kate Anderson, two of my favorite pitchers, two of the top pitchers overall in the slate. This is a quick speed-up game. No offense for me in here. I'm not picking on Reid Detmers, not picking on Kate Anderson. I know he has been kind of up and down. Schur, Netto, and Trout.

Jose Siri, that top three, if those guys are hitting there, I think – In teams where you're not playing Kate Anderson or maybe you pivot to like Quinn Matthews in that build and go to like those top three Angels, something like that, I think you can make some sense there. If I had to pick a side, it would definitely be on the Angels side. But Kate Anderson is not picking up a ton of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ by any means.

So it's not like you're getting leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ or anything like that. It would just be more of you're betting on Trout, Neto, and Siri being good against lefties, which they are. Playing those guys, which you can definitely do, but this is not a spot for offense for me. I would agree with you. I mean, obviously I like Devin Mercy. He's my number one ranked pitcher. And Kane Anderson, I got enough respect. If I'm going to do it, I don't hate a Mike Trout one-off.

So I think one-off is great in this spot. Mike Trout against a lefty, going to get two, possibly three. Matchups against him, he can certainly go yard, beat his, you know, almost double his projection. So give me some Mike Trout as a one-off, not playing any Mariners tonight. Yeah, I like that. I think if you wanted to play a Mariner for whatever it is, Randy Orozarena, J-Rod, those would be the only two guys I'd really look at there.

Cat Raleigh if you wanted to, but really Orozarena and J-Rod, those guys hit lefties pretty well and can have some stolen base upside for sure. Last game of the slate, Marlins, D-backs, Corbin Burns, Sands Alcantara on the mound. I like this game for offense here. This is the third game that I prefer over Coors Field as well. D-backs would be my lean. Marlins, I think, are kind of sneaky here. Griffin Conine looks pretty good. Corbin Burns. I think this guy's busted up.

I think it's over for him. Personally, myself, don't expect him to kind of come back super well from his injury. He didn't look good last start. I mean, you're not going to get a ton of pitches out of him. You're probably looking at that. Seventy pitch marks somewhere in there. Seventy, seventy five. Maybe he went, what, fifty seven last time out. Marlins have been actually pretty sneaky against right-handed pitching really all season. They'll run as well. Paulie looks really good.

I mean, this dude's got a four forty four. I sell and sub twenty percent strikeout right against left or right handed pitching over the last month. He looks really good to me. Marcy Stowers, Joe Mack is a cheap catcher if he's in there. Conine, like I said, Xavier Edwards will steal bases. This team just doesn't really strike out. I'm not playing any Corbin Burns for sure. Give me the Marlins bats over Corbin Burns and then the D-backs too against Sands.

Sandy's been really bad, especially against lefties over the last month. Corbin Carroll looks really good. Lars Neupahr looks good to me. Ketel Marte, Perdomo, Pagan Smith. If he's in there, he's got some power. He's a big pinch hit risk, but he's pretty cheap at $2,200 at first base. I like this game for offense here to round us out and I'll definitely have exposure to both sides here. How do you how do you see this one? Yeah, man, it's tough for me.

I don't like stacking this Marlins team. They got some young talent. Like you said, they swipe a lot of bags. So I'll give you that. But I don't think I can get there in a full five, man. Then on the flip side, Pavin Smith is batting eighth, Nate. So he is in the lineup, $2,200 bucks. I think you said that he looks good. Give me some of these lefties, though. I don't hate that. I don't like Corbin care about in fifth.

Now, I don't know. They know they did that about a week or two ago, but. I actually sat with the D-backs over the Marlins, but you're going to get those Marlins. Oh, that's showing like semi, you know, they look pretty good, but I'm not a fan of the Marlins. I'm going D-backs, Nate, over the Marlins tonight. Give me those lefties that I talked about. Carroll, Perdomo, Martins. Sorry, go ahead.

Yeah, I do lean the D-backs as well, but I do think some of those plays from the Marlins are pretty interesting as well. Thanks for the end of the show. Your top three pitchers, your top three stacks and a home run coffee. I have one. I'll do the same and we'll get on out of here, start building our baseball teams and then throw in some NFL stuff as well. And have a nice night of sports out of us. Yeah. Looking forward to tonight.

Yeah. So top, top three pitchers is going to be Detmers for me. I'm going to go Detmers. Number one, number two, I'm going to go Jonah Tong against the Orioles. And then number three, I'm going to, I'm going to stick with Soriano. I'll keep Soriano number three. And then, Real quick on stacks, I got to go Padres just because they're in a course facing Susana, who's brutal. Then I'll go Cardinals. Oh, Quinn Matthews. Yeah, Quinn Matthews is up there as well.

Padres, Cardinals, and then it's a toss-up between, I'm going to say the Angeles, and I'm going to say the Cubs. Oh, and then, yeah, go ahead, and we can give our home run call after that. All right, yeah, top three for me. I'm going Detmers, Kate Anderson, and Quinn Matthews. Those are the three guys that I'm focusing on. Offense, I'm going Cubs. I'm going Rockies. I'm going D-backs.

Yankees would be in there as well, but I'm a little worried about that weather in that game. If that weather does clear up a little bit and we get more clarity, I do love the Yankees, especially those lefties for sure. Go ahead, your home run call. I'm going to go with my second favorite stack of the night, batting from the left side against Landon Roop, number three in the lineup, Alec Burleson. Alec Burleson. I'm going to go to the Cubs. I'm going to go to my top stack.

I'm going to go to a guy hitting in the back half of that lineup. Michael Conforto gets another one here, hitting seventh, .三十一, some five percent ownedOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. Give me Michael Conforto to take one deep there in Wrigley County. Appreciate everyone tuning in. Hit that like button. Hit that subscribe button. Helps us out a ton. If you're playing NFL hoop, Tambo and title did the showdown breakdown right here on this channel. They also Tam Tambo and Belman also did the lineup review show.

If you're in the NFL streets over Sunday, talking through some evergreen content there in regard to breaking down the winning lineups, how people could have got there and kind of dissecting those that you can extrapolate out to improve your overall process. But for him, I'm Nades. Good luck tonight, like I said, in those contests. Good luck in the NFL streets. We'll have all the content live up in the Discord and on the website. We'll see you guys next time. We're out of here.

Peace.