Shows / CFB/ Friday, October 23, 2026
Bill and Kenny break down Saturday's Week 8 slate, with the Jaden Craig ($6,400), Ed Small and Jordan Dwyer stack the clearest starting point against West Virginia's poor pass defense. The expectation is heavy ownership, but enough salary remains to differentiate elsewhere. J'Koby Williams joins DeSean Bishop among the preferred running backs, with efficiency and potential additional volume supporting Williams and Tennessee's run-heavy approach supporting Bishop.
Kamari Moulton completes the top running back tier against Minnesota, with interest in pairing Iowa pieces and using opposing receivers as runbacks. Bear Bachmeier and Legend Glasker offer an alternative to the popular TCU passing game. Miami double stacks remain attractive but expensive, while Jackson Harris stands out for value. Treydan Green draws an explicit overweight call, and Cole Tabb becomes an underweight candidate if ownership reaches 20% or more.
| Play | Call | The Take | At |
|---|---|---|---|
| VALUE | Priced about $1,000 below where his consistent floor warrants, although LSU's defense makes the matchup less appealing. | 7:19 | |
| The slot matchup prompted interest in tournament shots despite concern that Auburn's top receivers are expensive. | 7:43 | ||
| PAY UP | The $8,200 salary can pay off if touchdowns finally accompany his substantial receiving volume. | 8:29 | |
| OVERWEIGHT | At $3,800, his red-zone role can pay off without a full workload, with an explicit plan to exceed the field's exposure if available. | 8:53 | |
| VALUE | The preferred LSU receiver is described as an extreme bargain after exceeding 20 points in three of four games, provided his injury status remains clear. | 9:10 | |
| PAY UP | The $7,900 salary is justified by efficiency, receiving involvement and room for more touches in a closer road game. | 11:46 | |
| Will Hammond with Two Texas Tech Teammates | IN PLAY | Opinions on the quarterback were split, with the more cautious approach limiting exposure to stacks with two teammates and a Cincinnati runback because his rushing and ceiling have disappointed. | 13:29 |
| VALUE | At $4,900, Texas Tech's leading receiving option remains affordable after early involvement in a game that became a blowout. | 14:32 | |
| JC French IV with Cincinnati Receivers and a Texas Tech Runback | IN PLAY | Cincinnati passing stacks are in play with an opposing piece, with Malachi Henry highlighted as a $3,900 pairing option. | 15:26 |
| UNDERWEIGHT | Take less than the field if ownership reaches 20% or more, especially following an injury-driven boost, with Cincinnati's passing game preferred. | 16:12 |
All systems go. Clear for liftoff. What's going on, everybody? We have made it to Week eight. Welcome to the Ship It Nation College Football Breakdown Show. My name's Bill. Put a dollar in front of it. You'll find me on Twitter slash X. With me is my good friend and colleague, Kenny, aka HamHawkFortyOne. Kenny, a lot different SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate of college football games than we had last Week. Yeah, definitely not the exciting ranked matchups.
Last Week's going to be hard to top as far as college football watchability, but it's an okay slate of games. I kind of feel like it's going to be a little bit more of a lower scoring slate, which I kind of prefer. So yeah, ready to get into it. It's hard to believe it's already, what is it? Is it Week eight? Yeah, Week eight. Week eight. Yes.
And talking about low scoring slates, some of those slates for midweek this Week, just gross, especially that Showdown (Captain and MVP)Showdown is a single-game DFS format where you build a lineup under a salary cap. In Captain or MVP formats, you assign one player to a special roster slot that multiplies their fantasy points and can increase their salary.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Read the full definition of Showdown with New Mexico State and Sam Houston. It felt like one play and you could go from the bottom to cashing or from the middle to winning just Insane amount of VarianceIn CFB DFS, rushing quarterbacks can take touchdowns from productive running backs, while uneven matchups can send starters to the bench early. These factors can create wide scoring swings even when you correctly identify the stronger offense.Track results by contest type and slate, and review opportunity separately from touchdowns or other rare scoring events. Entering the same lineup in ten contests does not give you ten independent performance samples. If you build with an optimizer, its randomness setting nudges projections up or down on each build, so your lineups spread across different players instead of repeating the same top projections.Read the full definition of Variance play by play when there's not a lot of points scored. But before we dive in, if you haven't been to Ship It Nation in a while, it's going to look a little bit different.
Oh, let's see. It's Week eight, Bill. Get it together. There we go. Got a new look to ShipItNation.com. A little bit of a makeover. The content is still there. Everything's the same. Just a look at our packages. I mean, the annual all access is going to be the best value. It's the best value in all the daily fantasy sports, in my opinion. And it's going to be the best bang for your buck.
We do have monthly if you just want to try it out. And if you're only interested in one sport, honestly, go to college football. And it's twenty nine dollars a month down here. And you can do it with or without SaberSim. Twenty nine dollars a month, though, is less than a dollar a day. That's it's almost like a trial. Like you're getting a trial run if you pay for, and you can keep it going.
You can get a free one month or a twenty nine dollar trial every single month if you want to go that route. But we do have, like I said, the annual all access best value in terms of getting everything. We have NHL going with some new features this year. We have NBA in full swing.
This isn't an NBA show, but I'm a Timberwolves fan and this is setting up to just be the most exciting season of my life if everything comes to fruition. It was fun with KG. It was fun with Kevin Love. And, you know, when we got Ant, it was exciting. But now with Ant Lomelo on that backcourt, sky's the limit. Kenny, do you watch basketball at all? I know we talk. We don't play a whole lot of NBA DFS, but are you a basketball fan?
Yeah, college basketball. I love college basketball. That's probably – I mean, it's kind of tough. Like, it's a fine DFS sport, but – It's like you can win tens of dollars in the college basketball streets. The contests aren't that big, but it's fun to play. One thing I kind of wanted to add to what you were talking about, the shows tab. Is that for everybody to use or is that just members? That's for everybody. That is awesome how it sums it up if you can't watch the show.
I just use that on Monday night to help me build the showdown lineup. It's just so convenient. I think if you go back, Bill, and just click on shows, like just on the, there it goes. Oh yeah. Look at that layout. Oh, we're live now. We have a live stream coming. The latest stream's here. But yeah, that's just, I don't know. That's so awesome that we're getting now technology that can just sum it up so quick like that, you know? Yeah.
And if you watch our shows and you watch After on YouTube, It segments it out. So if you're just looking for information on a specific game or you want to hear what we think about a specific player, you can do the scroll. And I'm not going to go to it now on here because I don't need an infinity screen or anything. I don't know exactly how that works. I'm sure it'd be fine, but I don't really want to test it.
Anyway, you can click and see, oh, this is when they're going to talk about Texas Tech Cincinnati. I just want to watch that segment right now. It really lays it out for you. Really well, the advancements we've made. And I just, I think it just looks pretty, honestly, it's not about the aesthetic necessarily, but it definitely looks pretty. And I pulled this up, but I'm going to pull it up again because it is the wolf season.
This is, I said it actually over the summer, this is Minnesota's best chance at getting all four championships in the four major men's sport. The twins being the most risky. I don't think it's going to happen, but I think it's the best chance we've had. It's a fun time to be a Minnesota sports fan. Outside of maybe college football, as we'll talk about later in the show. But that's a weird, unfortunate transition into this Week's slate. We have LSU at Auburn.
This spread's moved slightly. LSU now a touchdown favorite. I had it at seven and a half when I took my notes earlier this Week. But LSU, I mean, they're going to be in a good spot. I did not fact check this, but I believe or double check myself. I shouldn't say fact check. Double check myself. I believe this is eight games in eight straight weeks for LSU. I don't know if they've had a buy or if they did, it was early in the season.
Either way, they're still going to look good. I mean, they're a good football team. They have a high powered offense. Sam Levitt, even at $8,700 in a decent spot. Dylan Jones is a guy we talk about very involved in the passing game, gets a lot of workload. It just hasn't found the end zone the last couple of weeks.
But when you're getting seven catches a game, getting seven points just on receptions alone, that's going to look great for a running back. And then this wide receiver room. It's trade as green is completely off the report, but he's cheap. What exactly his workload is going to be is a little bit more unknown. But then you're looking at Winston Watkins and Jackson Harris, because for some reason, Jace Brown's not playing. But Watkins has been pretty steady.
Jackson Harris is the guy that's getting a lot of the touchdowns. I mean, if you're just, even if you're just box score watching, you're seeing he's scoring a lot of points because he's fine in the end zone. And then on the Auburn side, Is it still considered a letdown Week? Like, is this a hangover? Like, they're not a great football team. Usually we consider, you know, big clashes. Alabama, Georgia, the following Week for them, it's a hangover. They lose to a worse team.
But Auburn's an underdog again. Like, is it considered a letdown if they lose this game? I don't know. Maybe if they get blown out. But Byron Brown's still probably a little bit too cheap. I I'll defer to you on the running backs because I still have no interest. But then Singleton and Nimrod still wide receiver one and two. But if Christian Neptune is going to be throwing touchdowns at min price, if he's going to be on the field, do it in multiple different ways.
That's I mean, that's going to catch my eye. What are you thinking about this LSU Auburn matchup? I guess I'll kind of start with the Auburn side because it's pretty simple for me. Byron Brown is a great price. He should be like a thousand dollars more. He's kind of had a really good floor this year, even though it hasn't necessarily felt like it. And I think it's just because we're so used to these huge Byron Brown games when he was in South Florida.
But he's still pretty solid for that price. These top two receivers are a little too expensive for me. That being said, I think I'll probably take some shots on Chaz Nimrod. I kind of like the slot matchup. It's not anything too peculiar, but it's just something I noticed. Something you can maybe do in GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Read the full definition of GPP. But the LSU side is super intriguing to me. Like, I guess Levitt, I mean, it's pretty safe to say, like, he's solid at his price.
I feel like, I don't know, like a more competitive game. I don't know how competitive it's actually going to be, but I think it's like the more competitive, the more Rushing upside he has. Dylan Jones is, Just that volume and not getting the touchdowns. Like there's definitely going to be a real Week where he does get the touchdowns. It could be this Week.
And he's going to really pay off this $8,200 price tag, even though it feels a little overpriced right now. I mean, they were through. I don't know how many passes he caught last Week, but it had to have been like north of like seven. And then these receivers like trade is, I guess, kind of starting with him, him being available. He's been like above $5,000, like even $6,000 before he got hurt at $3,800.
He doesn't need to really play that much to pay off that tag. Like he's such a red zone threat. And I think I think I'm definitely going to be overweight on him. I don't think he's going to garner that much OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership, but it'll be. Time will tell. Like I, I could see him steaming as well, just as it becomes, he's more available.
I mean, also within the range of outcomes is that Jackson Harris traded as green and all these guys are doubtful on the report tonight after not being on it all Week. Like I can totally see some lane Kiffin lane Kiffin BS here. Um, But, yeah, really my favorite play on LSU is probably Jackson Harris, assuming everything's okay. He's had over twenty points in three of his last four games. Like, I think this fifty hundred dollar price tag is an extreme bargain.
Like, I feel like he's emerging in this offense as like a like a true alpha. Like, I I wouldn't be surprised to see him be seventy hundred soon instead of $5,800. But, yeah, I really love the LSU side. Not too wild about the Auburn side. For whatever it's worth, I don't necessarily go like live by this, but LSU does have the highest graded defense on PFF. So I don't know. It's not as pretty as it looks for Auburn.
I think it does like when you see that nice Byron Brown ProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections, that's over three X, but yeah, it's a good game to start the SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate for sure. And another thing is we're talking about Jackson Harris, his last four games, eight targets, four targets, seven targets, six targets.
And he has caught all but, three of them so his catch rate he's catching the targets that he's getting thrown which makes a big difference we'll talk about some guys who don't do that and that's why they carry a lot more risk but if you get thrown the ball and you catch it good for daily fantasy sports all right as we move on to the next game hit the like button if you're in here hit the like button if you're watching after leave us five stars if you're listening in podcast form we'll try to give you the best visual we can we know that podcast is the preferred way to take us in as well But we're moving on to Texas Tech at Cincinnati, an eleven and a half point spread.
This has moved in favor of Texas Tech. And usually you see these bigger spreads and, you know, you assume that Texas Tech is going to win. We'll talk about big spreads throughout this SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. But this has been just such a weird year. Like there's no way South Carolina can beat Florida. There's no way Florida can beat Texas. There's no way Auburn can beat Georgia. Or they could. It's been an or they could year in so many different spots. I mean, Texas has been the victim twice.
I don't think we need to be the ones to tell you that. But Cincinnati's at home. They're still projected to put points up on the board. I don't think it's out of the question that they could overcome this double-digit spread and win. But the Texas Tech side is still very interesting because Will Hammond is still sub-$6,000. It feels like his floor is safe at that price. Now, as safe as a floor can be when you're talking about fantasy sports.
But Hammond at $5,800 is in a great spot. Jacoby Williams averaging fifteen yards a carry last Week. Is that sustainable? I mean, maybe for him, especially in a matchup like this. But he's involved in the passing game to $7,900. I'm not going to balk at that. Joyner was on the field enough for $4,900. But obviously, like Williams is going to get the first look with Dickie still out. And then talk about too cheap. Kenny Johnson still sub $5,000.
The number one option in this offense. I know Terrence Carter came back and had a pretty significant game a couple of weeks ago. But last game, I'll prove that Kenny Johnson is still the number one here. And then Cincinnati, if Jabron Payne can't go, Colt has been super effective in this running back room. It's a little bit tougher matchup. But again, injuries lead to maybe some underpriced positional players. And Colt Tab's a little bit more expensive than I'd like him to be.
But if he's going to get everything, he's another guy who's just been really efficient when he touches the ball. JC French at $6,700 can run a little bit. He can sling it around a little bit. And he's got his favorite target, JV Gibson, Giovanni Gibson. If you remember from Oklahoma last year, Isaiah Johnson has been seeing an uptick the last couple of weeks, though. So I wouldn't say no to him and even Malachi Henry here.
Had the spike of all spike games last time out. Two catches, one for sixty nine yards, one for fifty nine yards. So if you're looking for just the Hail Mary that I mean, that's on two plays. He paid off easy. This this game, even with the bigger spread, is a little bit intriguing.
Yeah it's I guess you'll notice a trend these next three games the favorite has a thirty four Team TotalIn CFB DFS, a team total estimates a college team's points, usually from the game total and point spread. It describes team scoring expectations, not how much production the starters will accumulate.Recheck team totals after major news, then ask which players actually benefit. If your projections already reflect the change, avoid adding another automatic boost.Read the full definition of Team Total um I guess kind of starting with the Texas tech side like Will Hammond's a fair price I don't really I don't I think the only way I'm playing Will Hammond is with two other Texas tech guys he just has not shown that ceiling and he doesn't run like he used to um I'm kind of just out on him I'll probably sprinkle him in and like run him back with a bearcat Um, and then Jacobs Williams, there's three running backs on the slate that I feel like are kind of in their own tier and he's one of them.
Um, I, but he had thirty three fantasy points and like thirteen touches like and obviously that efficiency isn't always going to be there, but he's a really good football player like and there's some volume upside in this matchup. This one's on the road. Texas Tech was at home against a Arizona State team that is down bad. I think it was forty five nothing in halftime if I remember right. Um, So I think there's some volume upside for Jacobs as compared to last Week.
Joyner, gosh, he's not efficient like Dickey and Williams are. I don't know if I'm going to get there again this Week. I really liked him last Week. Again, I don't think I'm going to play them together this Week. Last Week was a little different game scenario. But he's definitely worth being talked about and looked into. The receivers, he kind of covered it well. Kenny Johnson, he was pretty involved like right away in that game and it just got out of hand.
Like he's a super fair price or fair price guy at $4,900. But yeah, I just don't need to add much there. The Cincinnati side for me. So Mikey Keane, I can't remember exactly when he came in last Week, but he threw for two hundred fifty yards or two touchdowns. That being said, Texas Tech probably in the fourth quarter had their walk-ons on defense. I know that a lot of that stuff was done in the second half.
I don't know if that's going to translate here with French. This is just trying to pick a spot that you could attack Texas Tech. You don't need to play a Bearcat or any of these Texas Tech guys by any means. I kind of like these receivers. I think I'm going to play French and pair him and run him back with the Tech guy.
Especially like a Malachi Henry he turns one of those catches into a touchdown last Week that's fine at $3,900 um you know and that that would really like unlock like if you were playing a will hammer that would really unlock some upside for him that we haven't seen um the running back situation it's super hard to tell like colt have his and I haven't looked for a couple days this prop may have changed but he only had like a fifty three and a half yard Rushing prop which would maybe kind of indicate that maybe Jabron Payne is going to play.
But he did have an ankle injury. I really don't think he's going to. So it's like we got this guy that's been super efficient, scoring a ton of touchdowns. He's got a fifty three yard prop against a tough matchup. But gosh, he's been so good. I think it's going to be like an OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership, like if he's twenty percent or more, which is a possibility, like especially if we get news of pains out. Like, I think I'm UnderweightYou are underweight in DFS when a player, team stack or lineup combination appears in a smaller percentage of your entries than in the contest field's entries.Compare the same contest, format and roster slot. Use projected ownership before lock, then check actual ownership afterward to see whether your intended underweight stance held.Read the full definition of Underweight on that.
If he happens to like moonwalk, I might be more interested. But I think that's how I'm going to handle that. I'm just I'm more interested in the Cincinnati passing than Coltab. As scary as that is, that's kind of famous last words with how good he's been. But yeah, it's more interesting than it appears at first. Yeah, and I do like that more with Cincinnati at home, just because Cincinnati has had just a couple of weeks.
And I can't even tell you for sure if it's only this year, if it goes back to last year, where they just laid some eggs. When they traveled to Arizona was one. I mean, that could have been a body clock thing. That was one of those late-night games and, you know, travel. But just, I mean, it wouldn't shock me to see him score seven points. It wouldn't shock me to see him win the game or anything in between.
As we move along, get questions in if you have them in the chat. I know there's a handful of you out there watching live. If you're not watching live, get them in the comments. I try to get to those Lineup LockLineup lock is the deadline after which you cannot change your selected players. Without late swap, your entire lineup locks together; with late swap, which allows edits after the contest begins, players lock at their games' listed deadlines.After saving an edit, reopen your entered lineups and confirm the change reached every intended entry. Check the site's displayed lock times and time zone instead of relying on the television schedule.Read the full definition of Lineup Lock on Saturday. But we'll – We'll get to them as best we can. Here live is always the best option. West Virginia at TCU, another, as you said, a ten and a half point spread.
This has moved towards TCU quite a few points since it opened. I believe it was at a touchdown when it opened. Now it's a ten and a half. On the West Virginia side, we know what their offense has been. Michael Hawkins, rightfully so, $9,700. He did not run the ball super well. He only had seventy yards.
I don't know if he had a touchdown in the last game, but he threw for like four hundred and sixty, which is not necessarily what you think of when you think of Hawkins. But just proving he can get it done through the air. Cam Cook kind of had a dud game. He's a little bit I think he's cheaper. I'd have to look back. But $8,400 seems like an OK price for him in terms of his ability. And then DJ Epps at $5,600.
If you're going to play a wide receiver, if you're going to play this passing game, he stands out as the number one guy. But Prince Strachan, former Boise State guy, has seen an uptick in usage over the past two, three games. I think he was actually hurt for a few games and has played really well since he's come back. But the thing is, TCU hasn't given up more than twenty one points in the game this season.
So it's going to be an interesting matchup between the West Virginia offense and the TCU defense. As interesting for a completely different reason, this TCU offense against the West Virginia defense, because by our metrics, West Virginia is the worst pass defense in college football in FBS. I think according to PFF, there's second worst graded, uh, in front of the team that fired their defensive coordinator at halftime, if that tells you anything. Uh, but Jaden Craig is $6,400 in this matchup.
I think that's probably too cheap. Um, in the running back room, it's going to be going to be quite an interesting thing. Jeremy Payne is questionable. He only played a handful of snaps in their last game. And I know that because I had him in my lineup. And I think he ended up either with negative points or less than one. But I would not be surprised if he doesn't go. We hopefully will get more information on the Friday night availability report.
So that leaves John Denman. And actually, I don't mind Amante Martin here either because Landon Walker is doubtful. He's the guy that got some snaps when pain went down. But Amante Martin's a four-star freshman who played high school in the five-A level at Texas at Port Arthur Memorial. And they almost got to the state championship. And in high school, he was a quarterback and a running back.
And I know TCU has run the wildcat in the past when they have guys that can do that. Another thing is that we might see Major Everhart in the backfield. I know he's taken some backfield snaps this year as well. But really, it's John Denman going to be your guy. If Payne doesn't go, maybe we see some Martin. But with a three hundred dollar difference, you want a little bit more security than coach saying Martin's going to get an uptick in usage.
And then the wide receiver room. I mean, we already talked about the West Virginia defense. These guys are all cheap. Ashley is questionable. So We'll have to see his status as well, but it just sets up incredibly for Ed Small and Jordan Dwyer. We're licking our chops with this matchup. We almost have to rein it in a little bit so we don't overdo it, but everything sets up for a TCU offensive onslaught.
Yeah, I don't remember quite a time where the three OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership players on the SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate are going to be all from one team, but I would not be surprised if that's the case with these TCU pass catchers. I guess I'm going to kind of start with West Virginia here first because it's a lot more brief. It's probably gonna be about as low as Michael Hawkins is gonna be in any matchup just out of the respect for the TCU defense and pricings a little bit tighter.
So I mean, I guess the ownership is definitely a reason to play and we've kind of been able to see him get there two different ways and you kind of mentioned that. Cam Cook, gosh dang it, I really want, as bad as I want to, and think of, this is actually, this just dawned on me, it is actually a revenge game for Cam Cook. Oh, yeah.
So, I mean, at $8,400, and that's just narrative, that doesn't add any DFS ValueValue is the fantasy production you expect from a player relative to his salary. A value play offers more production or upside than his price suggests, whether he is cheap or expensive.Identify why the salary looks wrong: workload, matchup, scoring ability or a pricing error. Then check whether that reason still holds when you submit your lineup.Read the full definition of Value necessarily. I love revenge narratives. But, yeah, yeah. No doubt about that. They're definitely fun to talk about, but he's just too expensive here. I'll probably play some of him, just because this TCU side's going to be buy-owned, and these guys are going to be solo-owned. I don't mind the Bring-BackIn college football, a bring-back is usually a pass catcher or running back from the team facing your quarterback stack.Pick the bring-back who gains the most when his team falls behind. In football that's usually the opponent's top pass catcher, not a running back who loses carries in a comeback.Read the full definition of Bring-Back still. I'll probably take some shots on Strack and then Epps, too, in Game StackIn college football, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack.
But as a whole, I'm kind of down on West Virginia, just as the ProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections indicate. I don't, I feel like at some point this is going to kind of come crashing, not crashing down a little bit, but there's gotta be some, so there's a bus coming and not that a lot of people are on it, but, and then, yeah, so TCU side, As I alluded to, probably the three highest guys on the slate are these three.
I think the way I'm kind of building this Week is like I usually do a group of main lineups that I enter in qualifiers and like just like the forty four dollar, the two to two stuff like that. I think I'm going to do like a set of six lineups where I just like lock this and then like another five lineups or something like that where I don't play any of it.
The way that this fails is if like, like, and it's not the same old, same old as always been, but TCU is definitely known for BS touchdowns. Like if Amante Martin scores a touchdown, Major Everhart scores a touchdown, TCU is able to run the ball, which they've like tried to establish the run. They just haven't been good at it at all. And I think that's kind of killed their offensive upside as a whole.
But if tcu tries to assess the run um and you know Denman's still like a solid play like I think he'll be owned enough to where like I wouldn't be surprised to see all four of these guys be played I mean that's such a little amount of salary for a thirty four point Team TotalIn CFB DFS, a team total estimates a college team's points, usually from the game total and point spread. It describes team scoring expectations, not how much production the starters will accumulate.Recheck team totals after major news, then ask which players actually benefit. If your projections already reflect the change, avoid adding another automatic boost.Read the full definition of Team Total um but that's the way they fail if there's a bunch of stupid touchdowns craig doesn't run at all um that being said at $6,400 like he was six yards short of the bonus last Week like that game didn't look as good um But, yeah, it's, you know, last Week I talked about the stoppable force versus the movable object.
And the movable object held its ground for a change. But I hear with how poor West Virginia's path is, this spot is just so elite. Like, I just think you kind of start here, especially if you're building one lineup, start with these three guys and figure it out from there. I mean, there's a ton of different options that you could still be unique even with these guys. But, yeah, for a ten a.m.
Game, this TC site is going to dictate the slate big time. Like if these guys fail, it's going to be super, super low scoring. But, yeah, this is definitely the I don't know, probably the biggest DFS implications in the slate in this game. Mm hmm. Yeah. And I stole that tagline here is a stoppable force versus movable object from my pre-show tweet. I like that a lot. What's going on, Zim? Glad to see you back again. A frequent visitor to the Ship It Nation.
Frequent viewer. Viewer, visitor, all of the above. All right. Moving on to Pittsburgh at Miami. I mean, it's pretty predictable how this is going to go. I don't know that I have much interest in Pittsburgh at all. Huge road dog. I mean, like Carey Daly's cheap, but there's – honestly, there's going to be other cheap quarterbacks we'll talk about that – that I would much rather play.
Running backs, I don't know if I'm ever going to play a Pittsburgh running back again in my life because this room has been a mess for years. And then wide receivers, like, I don't know. Malik Knight cheap is kind of where I'll leave that. I know he's got the deep threat ability. And if Pittsburgh's going to be throwing a lot, And one of these guys happens to fall into the end zone after five or six catches.
I think that could, that could be enough at these prices outside of maybe Hicks on the Miami side, Darian Mensah. I mean, he can get there at any price and $9,000 is not, not anything that's going to, you know, waiver me on that. The running back room is interesting. Fletcher didn't finish the game last Week. Pringle only played a handful of snaps. It's, You brought it up yesterday when we were chatting that he's going to just decline.
Mark Fletcher is for the rest of the regular season. Then when they get to the playoff, he's going to be sub $5,000 again and then blow up. This running back room, they could run out any one of those four guys that we have on the screen, Fletcher, Mallory, Lyle, Pringle. And it wouldn't shock me to see one of them get more carries than another. Although you're getting a discount with a couple of them.
And then the wide receiver room, Malachi Toney is just on another level and he's priced like it. He's priced. He should be priced along right alongside Jeremiah Smith. He's in the same category in terms of talent ability. Obviously they're built different, but for DFS, if you score points, you score points. And both of those guys are, are in a league of their own.
Uh, but really, honestly, all of these guys carry a bunch of upside, Barkate, Upshaw, Lofton, even Dre Jacobs has a little bit of upside at $3,500. So. I'm really focused on the Miami side, but that's, you know, more of the cash Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry, even up to Twenty-MaxA twenty-max contest lets each user enter up to 20 lineups. It sits between small-field formats like three-max and the largest 150-entry tournaments.Plan all 20 lineups before building any of them. Decide your stacks and exposure limits first, so the set works as a portfolio rather than 20 separate guesses.Read the full definition of Twenty-Max. One fifty is a little different. How are you looking at this game?
Oh oh did you get hit by the mute monster dude gosh dang it hey I was like what happened dude I thought you were put like dropping some breaking news somebody was in or out or got fired or something and I'm like oh crap what happened but yeah finally got me I've been okay cool now we're back um anyways so pit I'm out on pit um Malik Knight I'll probably have some shares of But that's literally it.
I don't even feel like dealing with his running backs. I'm like, really, I don't fully believe that the quarterback is going to get the full run either. It's just a really murky spot. And then the Miami side. So, yeah, you touched on Fletcher. And I'm just I think I'm out on all of them and just going to lean on the old Pittsburgh's a Pass FunnelA pass funnel is a football defense that encourages opponents to throw because passing offers a better matchup than running. It is typically stronger against the run than the pass, but extra passing does not guarantee success.Check opponent strength and passing rates when scores are close. Repeatedly facing pass-heavy offenses or teams chasing a deficit can make a defense look like a funnel without revealing a dependable matchup advantage.Read the full definition of Pass Funnel. That being said, I don't necessarily know. I think Miami could kind of move the ball wherever they wanted to.
I thought about this more with Mensah. If that is the case, I don't see why they wouldn't let Mensah let it rip. Like, let's say he throws for five touchdowns. Like, that's going to be pretty good at nine Ks still. And on this SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate, like, if you can get to it, the issue is, is, like, you want to – you probably want to pair him with Malachi Toney, and then that's really a lot of salary.
And I would say pair him with Malachi Toney and one of the Barcade Upshaw Lofton. I've kind of thought about it. I almost, like – I really don't mind Barkate or Upshaw. Like, they're out there every single play. And, I mean, obviously Lofton is, too, now that Luka Gilbert's out. But, I mean, Upshaw forte is out there every, you know, all the time. Did he score? I think he had a long touchdown last Week, or he had a long pass play. I can't remember that I remember seeing.
But as the Week's gone on, I have more interest in these secondary Miami pass catchers. It doubles with Mensah.
Um I really don't even hate like upshot of arcade is One-OffIn CFB DFS, a one-off is a player you roster outside a stack, often a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. A quarterback selected without his pass catchers can also function as a standalone play.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off like I it wouldn't shock me if they paid off their price tag and weren't fine I don't don't know quite how I'm gonna build it out um and then yeah tony like do you feel comfortable playing a mensa stack without tony like that's kind of like my debate right now like I I don't know if he takes two of these secondary guys with him, and it's just a lot of salary, so it's still tough.
But, yeah, I still love Tony. Probably, honestly, more as a one-off. But, yeah, I have a Malachi Tony shirt on today, so I can't talk about him. But, yeah, I love the Miami side. Still don't quite know how I'm going to build with it, but I love all these pass catchers.
Yeah and I mean if you're simply just looking at stacking mensa and tony that's more more than a third of your salary almost forty percent of your salary on two guys so but that's that's if you're going for a double stack it works a little bit better because of how cheap the other guys are I don't know if I would go tony bar kate um but with tony what do you want in that double stack thirty points at least and like tony Like, really, Tony can create so much by himself.
Like, he could throw a touchdown pass, run one in. He gets a high volume of catches. Yeah, I don't know. I guess, you know what, I'd probably – gosh, I don't know. I don't know if I want to force, like, the Tony with Mensah no matter what is what my debate is going to be at the end of the day. But I'm sure hopefully by ten a.m. Tomorrow I have the answer or else I'm going to have problems. Yeah, and this is certainly an option.
Tony's one of those guys that can just force feed. He could have fifteen targets, thirteen catches, two hundred and fifty yards, and three touchdowns, and everybody else could be left in the dust. But honestly, if the ball gets spread out, and even if Tony has two touchdowns and Bar-Kate has one, Upshaw has one, you're getting Bar-Kate and Upshaw for cheaper than Tony if you play them together.
So that's kind of where you have to have This internal debate, is it a Tony game or is it not a Tony game? And how much salary do you want to eat up with two positions? But that upside is through the roof. I mean, we talked about this with Jeremiah Smith a few weeks ago. Like, I don't know, it's a lot of money. And then he goes out and scores sixty three points or whatever it was. So there is a path to pay off.
Um, yeah, last year, I mean, not really relative to this year, but Tony did throw a touchdown pass against Pitt last year. Oh, nice. And is this, I mean, this, the, the path is paved for Mensah and Tony to both make it to the Heisman ceremony now with all the injuries, right? Like, Oh, absolutely. Yeah, definitely on the table. All right. So yes, uh, some more friendly prices in the next game, but for a lot lower total Indiana, Michigan.
Um, you know, normally I would say this is a better real life football game, but I don't know if that's necessarily true this year. Um, one interesting note about this game, the initial Injury NewsInjury news is information about a player's health that can change whether they compete, how much they play or how effectively they perform. In DFS, it also affects opportunities for teammates and opponents.Before an uncertain player's game locks, identify an alternative you can afford at each affected position. Check whether making that change would require another player whose game starts earlier.Read the full definition of Injury News came out and Michigan listed guys on their report and Indiana listed zero. I can't imagine that's a hundred percent true. Um, I think it might be, uh, a Cignetti move to not put anybody on the injury report, at least on the initial and maybe update it later in the Week, but.
I do think Hoover a little bit banged up. We talk about Hoover Week after Week when he's on the SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. You could argue that Michigan's pass defense is pretty good, but you could also argue that Drake Lindsey the best quarterback they've faced. That's not a super high endorsement on this defense. I don't know. Hoover never seems to really do much for me. Richard and Beebe The split bugs me for how expensive they are and their running games actually struggled a little bit.
Even with a touchdown, Richard didn't come close to value last Week, obviously much different matchup. And then Becker and Marsh, this is, this is one of those games. I could just see an explosion after what happened last Week, especially Nick Marsh, just on the vibes, like nothing to do with actual DFS strategy, but just on vibes alone, like Nick Marsh, see the game. They, Got to get his spirits back up. It was a pretty well-thrown ball.
I watched a replay a few times, and he should have caught that inbounds. Indiana should have won. But I would have liked Becker and Marsh regardless. That's probably where I'm looking on the Indiana side. And then in Michigan, big news is Tommy Carr starting. He played some against Penn State. If nothing else, he took care of the ball. But there's very little film on him.
Maybe that's a little bit of a leg up, but – I still just go back to Buchanan and Marsh because I don't love this running game. I haven't loved it all year. I thought Marshall was going to be a lot better coming in, but nothing has really come to fruition with this Michigan offense. It just kind of sucks. Maybe Carr provides a spark, but for me, I'm looking at Becker and Marsh, and I don't know how much I'm looking at anybody else.
But Nick Marsh, we could just Marsh Game StackIn college football, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack. Nick Marsh. Um yeah you got Nick Marsh Andrew Marsh and Jordan Marshall there you go um yeah I michigan I'm just completely out on it and I've been one to give them the benefit of the doubt a lot just because I love the targets therapy canada and marsh Buchanan is probably the only one I considered like I just there's just better places this game as a whole Yeah, Indiana's too muddled in the backfield.
And then, yeah, I'm with you with the Becker or Marsh thing. Like, it seems like one of them has nuked every Week, regardless of matchup. And I was a little intimidated by this Michigan secondary. And I mean, I generally I think Michigan's probably one of the top ten, if not top five defenses in the country. I mean, I'm sure whatever metric you look at, they're going to be up there. That being said, that doesn't scare me off of either of these guys and specifically as One-OffIn CFB DFS, a one-off is a player you roster outside a stack, often a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. A quarterback selected without his pass catchers can also function as a standalone play.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off.
Like that's literally all I'm playing in this game is a Becker or a Marsh on the Indiana side. So yeah, don't, don't really have a ton to get into here. It's pretty boring. Yeah. Yep. That's, I think that pretty much sums it up. We don't even need to spend too much time on this game. The, the, what I'll say from the, for the rest of the season is the gophers beat Michigan. That's all you need to know. Uh, get your questions in.
If you have them, if you have anything, I mean, tell us what you're eating for lunch. It is lunchtime. We're interested in chatter. If you want to talk shop, you want to talk ball, any of your favorite bets, get them in the chat. We're happy to address, uh, Oregon at Illinois. Um, Ian, I am Robbins who joins us most weeks is not here because a big boy job. It's a busy Week in the education field for him.
Uh, but he, uh, He told me that Oregon might have the fastest wide receiver core in all of college football. And I don't disagree with him. We'll get into that. For those of you who haven't kept up with the news, we'll explain the joke in a moment. But Dylan Raiola is getting started in all likelihood. Has that been confirmed, Kenny? Have you seen that confirmed? Or is that just what it looks like is going to happen? I believe that.
Nothing is confirmed that landing is doing landing things, but Dylan Ryola was like the quarterback of the press conference has this Week. Okay. And like, I will, yeah, I guess I'll, you go ahead and then I'll talk about last Week. Cause I did get a little bit of this team last Week, unfortunately. Yeah. Yeah. Now UCLA is probably better than Illinois and that was Rayola's last start.
So I think you can look at Raiola again at six, the eight hundred and not take that into consideration. But this wide receiver core is going to be the biggest talking point with Oregon. The joke was that they're the fastest wide receiver core in college football. That's because, you know, Jamari Johnson got a speeding ticket, got cited for speeding. They were rumored to be part of a street racing, like involved in street racing. Those rumors were kind of squashed.
I don't know how much I believe it, but Jamari Johnson got cited for a speeding ticket. It looks like he's going to go. Who's not going to go is Evan Stewart, who already missed last game. And was arrested for DUII, which I learned about, is driving under the influence of intoxicants. So the extra I I hadn't seen before, but either way, he's not going to play. So that does leave DeCorean more in a great spot. Jamari Johnson in a solid spot.
Messiah Hampton is going to see the field again. One thing that's interesting is De'Ari Hill actually lined up from the slot on thirty two percent of his snaps or thirty two percent of his passing snaps. Against Nebraska. Now, is that because of the injuries in the wide receiver room, or is it just the way the scheme went? Either way, he saw more time at wide receiver, which is kind of intriguing because they're going to be rolling out the same personnel here.
And that opens up the backfield for Jordan Davison and Brandon Smith, who got a little bit of extra run last Week. And Brandon Smith, true freshman, this is a trend for Oregon that I'm about to dive into because I With the injuries last Week, true freshmen as well. Jalen Lott played forty nine snaps. True freshman Messiah Hampton already had increased runs since McClellan went down. True freshman Gatlin Bear even ran eleven routes last Week. He didn't have any stats to speak of.
I believe he had a target and that was it. But these young guys are getting a lot more run. And in a game where you're facing a defense like Illinois, who's been ridden with injuries and struggled. This is a situation where I could see them seeing what they have in these guys. They already spread the ball around to begin with, but I think you're starting with DeCorean and Jamari Johnson.
The running backs are going to be tough, maybe like Hill because of what they did within last Week. But again, it's the same old Oregon story. It feels like somebody's going to do it. You don't know who, and then you get to the game and they just don't score points. At this point, you just bet that Oregon under and move on. Maybe not against his defense, but on the Illinois side, Caden Houser's out. We'll likely see Michael Clayton, who came in in relief.
It was actually pretty effective. He's a true freshman three-star recruit. PFF actually has him listed as a halfback. I don't know why, because he's six, four, two, ten, and he's definitely a pocket passer. So that was weird. I couldn't find him. I couldn't find his stat line at first. But, $4,900. I mean, if you're looking for a cheap quarterback, gosh, I just I don't know. I don't know if I'm going to need to go down there this Week.
But if you need a cheap quarterback, I would consider him over daily with Pitt. Or who was the other? Was there another guy that was in the $5,000's? No, I think it was just daily. Either way, Aiden Lafrey has taken over this backfield with no Khalil Valentine. Anderson and Barnett will see the field, but Lafrey is going to get the lion's share. And then this wide receiver room, it's still Colin Dixon.
But we did see more Clement and Braden Trimble action against Michigan State, including a touchdown from Clayton to Clement. So, I mean, he got enough time since this game went into overtime that he did get a significant amount of time with this wide receiver core, and he was spreading it out to these three top guys in Dixon, Clement, and Trimble.
So I'm not completely writing this team off because of a backup quarterback in that sense, but One thing that's an X factor is we still have no idea what Jay Sean Platt's going to do. I thought he was going to play two games ago. I thought he was going to play last game. He's probable again. So we'll see. But that was – I'm out of breath.
That was a lot of talk about Oregon-Illinois for a game that I really don't know how much I'm actually going to play. Well, I think it's kind of important to talk about because there's going to be some good ProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections in this game, and you're going to kind of have to think – think through like what, what are the range of outcomes on this projection? Like, I guess like the Oregon side.
So last Week, obviously they started Brook Thomas for three quarters and Ryola came in for the last two drives. Like Oregon could not like their offense was so limited with Brook Thomas. Um, I follow, I was asleep for the fourth quarter when Ryola made the comeback, which I'm kind of grateful for, but going back and looking at the play by play, um, They controlled the ball and nickel and dimed it down the entire field.
One of the big worries I have is if Oregon is going to play just super slow in ball control and Illinois is unable to move the ball, that could really slog it down. I think I'm out on Raiola. I don't know what this offense is going to produce. And I think he's going to actually garner some OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership still this Week. And that's, I mean, assuming he's a starter. At running back, I'm actually really starting to get sweet on D.A. Hill.
If you look at those last two drives, Deerhill was in there and super involved, like passing, running, everything. And I mean, I'm biased, but I think the Huskers have a really good run defense. Like Indiana couldn't do anything, Oregon couldn't do anything, and that's like all they were trying to do. They couldn't really throw a pass down the field. Nebraska held their own and really, you know, those last drives just kept getting nickel and dimed, it looked like.
And then Oregon ended up pulling out a victory, unfortunately. But I do like D.R. Hill quite a bit. He might, like if I was ranking running backs, he'd be just a tier below my big three this Week. And then receivers, the only one I feel good about is DeCorean Moore. Like he's the only one I feel a hundred percent sure is going to have a full role.
I don't know if there's going to be in any internal discipline with Jamari Johnson. Right. Like, I just like, what is, you know, I don't know, like to me, if you're coaching and this is just kind of a rant, but like, you got to set an example. You can't just be like, okay, these guys are going to get away with this.
You know like is that the you know do they want to be like that program in the south that landing talks about like like I don't you know and I know I know a speeding ticket isn't that big of a deal but if we're going to read the tea leaves like if it's a speeding ticket why he's street racing doing something dangerous like whatever we've all spent before you know but I and I don't know the severity of the speeding ticket I didn't really look into that but like I don't feel good about jamar Johnson he's gonna have a really good projection this Week probably It might be a really good fade spot.
That being said, if he just gets to play and doesn't have any repercussions, it's a scary fade. You talk about Hampton a lot and stuff. I'm not really interested in this Oregon passing game. And Illinois does not have a good defense. It'll probably be, like Raiola was fine against USC, but it's kind of a weird situation there. Like I don't.
I don't know if Illinois can really stop Oregon from running the ball like Nebraska could, so I could just see them running the ball, slogging it out, trying to get a victory away from home. Which really isn't necessarily the best thing for Illinois. That being said, Michael Clayton, I do have some interest in. He's got good guys to pair with. I was looking at his high school stats. He is a true pocket passer. You're wanting him to sling it.
And I didn't watch the end of Michigan State-Illinois, that whole overtime run. And it's not like Michigan State's defense is anything special, but he was able to produce and get them that victory. I mean, I know Michigan State didn't dismiss the two-point conversion in overtime. But still be able to get the touchdown and, you know, bring them, hold off the comeback from the Spartans. I don't have any interest in the running back room against Oregon. That's kind of a mess.
And then, yeah, I mean, Dixon's expensive, but if you're looking for somebody to pair, really he's the click. Clement's fine. Trimble's too muddled to me with Platt looming. And I really, I really hope we get to see Platt this Week. And it's, I probably am not going to get there as bad as like I want to.
But, like, I guess if there was a SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate, like, I wish he had played even a little bit the game before because, like, it's hard to find anybody below $4,000 that's viable. And since I haven't seen him, I'm probably not going to get there, but definitely have some interest when he does start seeing the field as far as, like, just run me a route or two, Platt. Like, you know, then I'll be in.
But, yeah, long-winded way of saying that, like, this game's probably not as good as it appears. Yeah. And just to put it in perspective, we've both mentioned the Illinois defense, our grading system has their past defense at an F and their rush defense at a C plus. So like, I mean, if Raiola can't do it here, they need him. Like they, they can't have him start football games. So yeah, I like it's, I don't know.
Both of their paces are a little bit slower. So there is a chance that's just turns into a lower scoring game. Not, I think Oregon should be able to handle it though. All right. Texas A&M at Alabama. I mean, a bad football team against a good one, right? That's, but again, or they could Texas A&M. I mean, Mars, I think Marcel Reed is not good.
And I don't know if it's the offense as a whole or if it's just him, but I mean, what did they play the Citadel or something last Week? And they, like a get right FCS game, but, Now they're traveling to Tuscaloosa, Alabama coming off a tough loss. Now we saw this situation with Florida losing, right? And then having to go to South Carolina where they promptly lost again, or was it, I don't remember the order.
I just remember saying I wouldn't want to face Florida right now. And then Florida lost. Now Alabama is obviously a different team and they've already lost a couple, but Marcel Reed is not somebody I'm super interested in. It's still Owens in the backfield for them. And I don't know because he's FCS games.
It's so weird to get like a feel of what's going to happen because obviously third and four stringers typically get more run, but also they, they start to show things to the coach in those games. It's almost like their chance to be like, Hey, I can, I can hang, I can play. So KJ Edwards had already been getting some time in the absence of Morrow. He looked good in their FCS matchup.
And I mean, there's a chance he's RV too, but it just, All that to say, I don't know that I'm going to mess with this running back room. Owens is cheap. That's really about the only thing he has going for him. And then we have a revenge game for Isaiah Horton going up against his former team. And one thing I will say about him is that Bama has struggled a little bit against big outside receivers.
Deuce Robinson had a monster game against them. Even Nick Harbor had some success. Mike Matthews for Tennessee. Well, it wasn't like earth shattering numbers. It was, I mean, it was a good game. And they're talking about defensive grades. Alabama's past defense, we have graded at a D plus. Now they face different competition than Texas A&M. But I'm definitely looking at Horton for $4,600 for a wide receiver one, especially Craver banged up. He's questionable. There's a chance he might not even go.
And that that kind of leaves Horton as the guy here. But the Alabama side does look a lot more intriguing with Russell at $8,000. I don't think that's. Expensive enough for him. I don't know that I'm touching this running back room though. They went back to Daniel Hill again, whatever. I mean, I know Kroll is questionable this Week, but I still will contend that he's the best running back in this backfield and they do not feed him enough.
If he's been injured, that's one thing, but if it's just to like feed Treshawn Brown, Daniel Hill, that does nothing for me. And then RCW, Ryan Coleman Williams out again. So Rico Scott, another at $4,600, played two $4,600 wide receivers from this game and move on if you want to, because Rico Scott's in another good spot. But Marshall Pritchett got a pretty significant increase in usage last Week with no Coleman Williams. So at $3,400, that's super intriguing.
And then obviously Lazier Brooks is on the field all the time. So for sub $6,000, a guy who's going to be on the field in this sort of game environment, I don't mind going to him either. But I really like these two wide receiver ones, I guess, for sub $5,000. But that's, I mean, there's other things to like in this game. Maybe for you.
Like Texas A&M, gosh, what a, I mean, I've been off them all year and I think I'm going to stay that way. Fair. Like I would have some interest in KJ Edwards. It's like if we're, if he was going to be the one A maybe like I, I, But yeah, I don't, yeah, just no Texas A&M for me. I just, there's better spots. The Alabama side, I think you're kind of onto something that like it's a get right spot for Alabama.
Like Keelan Russell and his pass catchers is where I'm really interested in. The only like pause I have is maybe like this offense isn't as good with Brian Coleman Williams.
In the passing game and like these Alabama running backs love to be vultures off Kaelin Russell so that's like the only pause I really have there but I do really like that spot if I'm picking somewhere in this game gosh I I really would love to take a shot on a Kroll or a Brown but Daniel Hill is just kind of a thorn in their side like like especially I think like Brown's almost been the best one even though I think Kroll might be the best one down the road like it's um I don't know.
I wish there was some shots I could take here at the running back room, but it's just too muddled up for me. Yeah, really just Alabama passing for me. This game is definitely down the list of stuff I'm interested in this Week. Yeah, and one thing I've noticed about Kroll, I need to look up the stat just to make sure that I am speaking accurately. He just feels like he's tough to bring down. So looking – oh, man, yeah. Yeah.
Maybe it was just that one game too, but he averaged and a third yards after contact against Mississippi state six over six yards after contact on average this season. Um, so that, I mean, that is always going to draw me to somebody watching real life football is, is when they run like that. So, but I'm not the coach. They're going to keep rotating running backs. I'll stay away.
Uh, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Mississippi state, uh, Obviously, Camario and Fluff are going to have a big impact on this game, whether they play or not. The fact that Oklahoma is a three-point road favorite, I know Oklahoma's got a good defense, but I feel like this game might be a pick-em or even Mississippi State favored, dare I say, if Camario goes and both of those guys specific for sure. Jometeer at $6,000 nine hundred as nice as that looks.
Gosh, he's he's just been He's let me down multiple times this year. I know he's let down Oklahoma fans. The running back room, I don't know that I'll touch. I mean, Blaylock is probable. Hatton's probably going to get involved. Avant at $6,400. I just feel like there's better spots. Although if Taylor and Bothwell are out watching that LSU Mississippi State game last Week, for some reason, the quarterback and running back being out made their defense worse.
I don't know how that works, but it might just be the vibes on the sideline. But I am still interested in these pass catchers a little bit. Satania at sixty six, I think, is still fine. So much usage goes his way. Rocky Beers. $4,400. You know, I'm in for some beers. And it's basically been those two guys. One thing that could throw a wrench in, even though Trill Harris is still out and Elijah Thomas is questionable. Parker Livingstone probable.
So him coming back, we don't know exactly what his role is going to be, but just be prepared for that to throw a wrench in. To the Target ShareIn college football, target share is the same percentage of team targets, but it is often far more concentrated: many offenses send a third or more of their throws to one receiver or tight end.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Read the full definition of Target Share. And then on the Mississippi State side, I don't need to really elaborate more on the two main pieces that we're waiting on. I don't think I'm playing Parker Puckett, for you Family Guy fans, at $8,300.
Anthony Evans, one of my favorite wide receivers in football, but at $7,200 with Puckett, it's tough for me to get there, even with his target share. Are you? Gosh. I don't know, this game just feels gross, but some of these prices, especially on the Oklahoma side, are at least giving me like a considerable thought to play them. Yeah, this game's, I don't, I mean, yeah, I miss, I guess Mississippi State's side is I'm just completely out. Like Evans is too expensive.
Like I will say, I'm going to look at like his reception prop and see what it is after this. Like that's, that's like once, if you really wanted to have some action on the Bulldogs this Week, maybe a reception prop for Anthony Evans. Um, but it's seven to a hundred. I just don't think he's going to pay off that price. Um, I mean, yeah, I guess we'll have to see the Injury NewsInjury news is information about a player's health that can change whether they compete, how much they play or how effectively they perform. In DFS, it also affects opportunities for teammates and opponents.Before an uncertain player's game locks, identify an alternative you can afford at each affected position. Check whether making that change would require another player whose game starts earlier.Read the full definition of Injury News. I don't like if Kamara Taylor is like, Oh, a hundred percent.
It's really hard not to think about him. No OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership, but I don't think we're going to get that. I think we're going to have Billy Puckett again. Um, yeah. So this Oklahoma side really loves to take and really love beers like more so Sategna. I don't know. I think he's going to probably garner a lot of ownership.
Like I kept landing on him and builds, um, kind of the last guy and it just kept landing there um that being said like the I don't think I I just saw that comment about the low scoring one thing I think centennial beers can get there on volume even if it's not like the touchdowns um and hopefully maybe they each get one like they did last Week material at $6,900 I'm kind of curious like because these guys are gonna pull so much ownership I kind of feel like the tier is gonna get a little over owned um he's right at that pricing of the sixty nine not $7,000 um I don't
Know if I'm gonna be in on it he's just been so dang bad um but quarterback kind of sucks this Week like it's I mean there's plays but there isn't any like there's like one lock and load and then it's really kind of a crap shoot from there I feel like um but yeah this I don't really have a matchup edge in this game other than Yeah, I don't even know if it's a stoppable force versus a movable object. I mean, I don't know.
It's just, yeah. I love two Oklahoma pass catchers, and I'm probably just going to wrap it up there because it's like I don't really want to waste my time trying to decipher who's going to go off in a game like this. The answer is probably no one. But, yeah, I don't know. Just these two guys for me.
Yeah, and I don't know if it's because of usage or if it's because they both wear red jerseys and are the third, but I just view Satania and Evans as very similar players. One of them has their starting quarterback and is six hundred dollars cheaper. So I'm just that it's black and white a little bit more. Tennessee at South Carolina, let down spot for Tennessee. Of course, after the big win last Week, trap game, whatever you want to call it. And South Carolina's favored.
It's almost like the books view it the same way. George McIntyre going to get the start again. Didn't really wow you with his stats last Week, but did like protected the ball well enough to win the game. Didn't more of a didn't make mistakes than won the game for Tennessee, because I think Deshaun Bishop probably won the game in terms of offensive output. His worst game of the last three is nineteen for one thirty eight and a score.
So of his last three games, that's his worst stat line, worst stat line. And now South Carolina is a little bit more of a Pass FunnelA pass funnel is a football defense that encourages opponents to throw because passing offers a better matchup than running. It is typically stronger against the run than the pass, but extra passing does not guarantee success.Check opponent strength and passing rates when scores are close. Repeatedly facing pass-heavy offenses or teams chasing a deficit can make a defense look like a funnel without revealing a dependable matchup advantage.Read the full definition of Pass Funnel than they give it up to the run. But I really don't care with Bishop. DeJuan Morris still eats in some. Javon Gordon was back, but only played six snaps last Week. In the wide receiver room, Mike Matthews is still target wide receiver number one. I do like him regardless of who's playing quarterback.
Dasom Brom has seen a decent Target ShareIn college football, target share is the same percentage of team targets, but it is often far more concentrated: many offenses send a third or more of their throws to one receiver or tight end.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Read the full definition of Target Share as well. Braylon Staley still out there on the field. And I know you brought it up several times throughout the year that you like slot receivers against South Carolina.
So I'll let you elaborate on that some a little bit more, but to the South Carolina side, menorah Sellers through for four touchdowns uh last time south Carolina took the field which that's I mean it's like michael Hawkins throwing for four sixty four it's it's in that same vein uh Tennessee kind of shut down keelan Russell in terms of you know both through the air and on the ground now byron brown did run for more than a hundred yards against Tennessee so I would I mean Sellers probably built a little bit more like brown obviously but I don't mind $7,700 even in this matchup.
I think if South Carolina is going to win, he's going to be a big part of it. Matt Fuller price is up there. Not that Tennessee's face the cream of the crop, but, you know, a tougher run defense. And Jabri Coleman also got a season high in snaps in the Florida game. So a little bit of pause with the price plus the guys behind him. And then Mazeo Bennett has fifteen catches on seventeen targets over the last two games.
It just hasn't turned into a whole lot, especially in the last game. Nick Harbor, I mean, he's boom or bust. Play at your own risk. One game, he'll have two for twenty six. The next game, he'll have a ginormous monster game. But I'll just leave you with the fact that he's got five drops on the season and still only a forty six percent catch rate. So just he's a little bit more expensive than he has been to at $4,500.
So play at your own risk. You know what you're getting into. Especially when DJ Black and Donovan Murph saw increased usage as well. Sellers is the one who's catching my eye the most. I personally don't know if I'm stacking him. I know your GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Read the full definition of GPP builds are going to be a little bit different, but I like more on the underdog side, I think, than I do on the South Carolina side.
Yeah, I mean, I guess clearly the first thing you look at in this game is you see the South Carolina's favored. It really reminds me of like the Florida Ole Miss game, like just as far as the spread goes. But I really don't – like I still think Tennessee wins this game. And obviously like any better is going to look at that and be like – The guys in the desert are trying to tell us something here.
But I just, like, from a DFS perspective, South Carolina, like, it's Sellers, and that's, like, really it for me. I might sprinkle these pass catchers in. And, like, you're right. The only way they, I think, win this game is if Sellers has a good game. And I guess if that's what Vegas is trying to tell us, South Carolina is going to win, then I probably want some Sellers. But I really don't feel good about it against this Tennessee matchup.
And I'm kind of noticing a trend today that, like, a lot of plays that are good plays on this site I'm like well I don't really like them that much you know like it's it's it's gonna be interesting but yes like a seller's Bishop stack that's like super like I mean they're probably they're expensive but they're that's super affordable relative to some other places you can stack um yeah Bishop is one of those three running backs that are in a elite tier here I Matchup, funnel, whatever aside, like Bishop, the volume he's getting, the quarterback situation for Tennessee on the road.
And I think, you know, this isn't like your Hindenhookers Tennessee anymore by any means. Their identity has definitely changed over the years. And they're more of a run the ball and play really good defense. And I mean, that's...
That's what's got it done from last Week I mean they allowed twenty four points to georgia tech twenty to Texas other than that they haven't allowed a team to get to twenty points and the georgia tech one was a little more like garbage time um you could just say that georgia tech's a better football team than Texas georgia tech might have a better offense in Texas which is like insane to even have that debate we consider the amount of talent Texas has but gosh it's yeah I am but yeah I love days to bishop so yeah you alluded to the slot matchups and I mean the last time that I was going to attack that vernell braille
Brown was out for Florida and stockton was kind of the slot guy and he ended up having a huge game and he hadn't done crap all year saly hasn't done crap all year but we've seen the type of ceiling he's had like last year also different quarterback different you know but I probably had a little bit of a more explosive offense especially more explosive passing game last year um
But if he's definitely a Game StackIn college football, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Read the full definition of Game Stack possibility like I don't mind like Sellers bishop Staley stack like that's pretty I mean if you think this game kind of pops off it's a tight enough spread that it could but real life I think Tennessee is just too good on defense for south Carolina to beat them um I mean, so what's like South Carolina have like a third down thing? Like Mississippi State, it's the Cowbells. Last Week, Tennessee was that. We said I was on a rocky top.
Every third down. And it wasn't even that. It was like the spooky, you know, I don't know if you've heard that sound bite or whatever, but every third down. It was driving me nuts by the fourth quarter. But, yeah, I don't know if South Carolina has one of those, but I'll be excited to not have to deal with that this Week in this case in Columbia. Yeah. Believe it or not, when I have South Carolina games on, I usually don't have the audio on.
I have a YouTube TV quad box. South Carolina is rarely my first Choice. I was just watching. I do the quad box too, but that game was just a tight game. I had the audio on it and noticed it repeatedly. I guess I could have just done that and solved my problem. Switch to the audio and do a different game. Speaking of, what better day for a quad box than last Week?
Not just on the Marine SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate, but in the night game when you had Florida State, Miami, and you had Houston, Oklahoma State, and you had BYU and Notre Dame. Heck, even the UTSA Navy ending was exciting. What a great Week of college football. I don't want to reminisce too much because looking back doesn't help us attack this slate. But gosh, still a good Week. Still a good Week for college football. Don't get me wrong. All right.
Speaking of guys that, you know, you might want to play, but you don't really like, this is kind of a game like that overall. BYU, probably like in the ultimate hangover, let down trap game slot, a spot, a big and controversial win that everybody keeps talking about against Notre Dame last Week.
Now traveling two time zones over for a team that we seem to see every single Week on DraftKings and a team that has been known to play in a couple of slog fests. But, you know, throughout their Multiple slugfest throughout the season. Oklahoma State was one game that wasn't a slugfest, but that, I mean, Oklahoma State controlled the pace in that game against UCF. So this is one of those games that just feels yucky in terms of real life and DFS.
Barry Bachmeier at . For him, it's probably too cheap. He's averaging well over three X this price in fantasy points. Coming off two straight spike games with nearly . If you take out the weird Colorado State game, he's averaging over thirty points a game. But I still don't feel one hundred percent comfortable here. I'm not saying to fade. Just it doesn't feel great. The running back room, LJ Martin, still out. No one's really emerged. Thought it was going to be Tonga. Last Week it was Rex.
But now one thing to consider, too, is Sione Mo is off the report. He was cleared to play last Week. We could see him get his first action in a long time here. And then pass catchers. It's really Glasker. I mean, Kyler Casper is actually the target leader on this team and he has twenty targets over the last game. But last Week was the first time since Week one that he caught more than fifty percent of his targets. So that's why you go to Glasker.
He catches the ball and it's thrown to him. He gets involved in the run game. One of those guys that that they just want to get the ball in his hands. I mean, you can still look at Phillips and Lyons, too, that are they're involved enough. But it's really Glasker for me. On the UCF side, Keewon Jenkins kind of balled out against Oklahoma State. But again, that was an increased pace. And I mean, that leads to better potential for fantasy stats.
Opportunity leads to points or increases the opportunity on the field, increases the opportunity for points, whatever. Duke Watson, the more plays you run, the more chances you have to score points. Duke Watson is clearly the alpha back. Twenty one carries against Oklahoma State. But looking at BYU, Notre Dame only ran for one hundred and fifteen yards as a team. One thing you can look at is that one guy, Nolan James, was seventy seven of it.
But I still don't know that I love it, even though Swint's out. $6,000 is just a weird spot. And then the wide receiver room. If you're looking at attacking BYU, it's kind of been from the slot. I mean, a great house, Gio Richardson, Kari Ashley played from the slot as a tight end. That would.
Technically favor Rick Darius Farmer just that just tells you everything you need to know about how I feel about this game like I'm looking at Rick Darius Farmer as having an advantage I don't know that I want to go there obviously Josh Derry uh is wide receiver one and he's put up some big numbers um Caleb Piening has been on the field a lot more twelve catches on thirteen targets the last couple of games and I just I just don't know if Dylan Wade is a hundred percent um because it's it's been Piening at the tight end position getting the production but That's a lot of talk about this game, for one.
Again, that just does not work for me. You know, I mean, I kind of like – obviously the total's not there, but I kind of like – I guess I'll start with the UCF side. Crazy, UCF's on the main SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate yet again. But I do really like Derry and Watson as runbacks. I'm probably going to – well, Derry, he had thirteen targets last Week. I probably will play him as a One-OffIn CFB DFS, a one-off is a player you roster outside a stack, often a running back or a receiver without his quarterback. A quarterback selected without his pass catchers can also function as a standalone play.Before adding a one-off, compare him with an affordable teammate of your existing stack. Decide whether his individual upside is worth passing up that extra scoring connection.Read the full definition of One-Off. Watson, I'll definitely play with Bayer.
But I actually really like – even though BYU's in a letdown spot and UCF plays sloggier games – they've definitely been susceptible to like some three hundred yard passing performances and not the BYU necessarily wants to pass the ball. Wigman had three Rushing touchdowns against him. I think Bear is a really, really solid play quarterback. And I really, really like Glasgow this Week. He's sandwiched right between those TCU guys. He shouldn't carry much OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. And I just it gives me the vibes of like when you get Parker Kingston.
He was just priced last year and no ownership and would just scorch in the afternoon. Um I I have quite a bit of interest in like the bear and the glasgow I think the running backs I'm off of um but yeah it's I guess I wish that there was a higher total, but I still think I'm going to dig into it. Cause like, as I'm talking, I really don't like the ChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk spots. I think bear's going to get some ownership, but nothing else in this game.
Well, I'm curious where dairy comes in. I haven't even really looked into him much, but at $4,700 with what he's been doing, he should pull some ownership, but he shouldn't pull much as he's right. Kind of there. He's two hundred bucks lower than that small. Like that's going to be a lot of people are going to be small over dairy.
But there's more in this game I think than the total implies yeah and tough to say exactly what they're going to come in but you got to imagine dairy is going to be a third of the ownership of those guys or less right like so you're going to get some LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage on those tcu guys and this is this is one of the reason like in years past I've done a lot of solo shows this is the reason I like having two to three person shows is just because I don't really like this game but listening to you talk about it like you know just thinking overall as a slate how many guys we've said yeah he's fine yeah this
Guy's fine I mean what's the difference in this game these guys are fine and and byu very well could come in and blow the doors off the ucf they're the number two team in the country they haven't lost yet there's no reason they can't do that um just the narrative you know the the hangover is going to be talked about and it's just that's just yeah I mean just a couple quick things to add like this game in the game before it's insane to see top ten ranked teams go on the road like byu's number two in the country is a seven and a half point favorite on the road at unranked ucf Tennessee's underdog
I don't think south Carolina's ranked like it's just wild how tight college football is this year compared to years previous like but and then another thing with this byucf game I noticed there's some pretty strong wins like on kevin roth's my sports weather it does say twenty to thirty mile an hours um it's always so weird because like I sometimes I feel like the commentators like they only bring it up and if like there's the passing game isn't good if it's fine I don't know how much it really affects but it is Something to look at, which I don't think that affects Glasker.
Like he's a little bit of a lower ADOT guy. It feels like like a little more of a gadget type. You might actually get some carries, too. But yeah, that's all I wanted to add real quick. Yeah, that's actually a good transition into the next game. A low scoring, boring, sloggy game that could be windy describes Iowa, Minnesota battle for Florida Rosedale, which for those of you who are unaware is a pig. These teams play every single year.
Iowa has won twenty of the twenty five matchups since $2,000. One of those go for victories needed an illegal fair catch and Deacon Hill starting a quarterback. So I don't even know if you count that game when you're looking at the overall record. But anyway, Iowa, Jeremy Hecklinski expected to start. I said in our Discord earlier this Week that I like Iowa a lot more. Heklinski starts. I think he can open this offense up a little bit more now.
Does that mean he's necessarily going to be the one like at $6,500? I still think you don't necessarily like play him. But I like this offense overall with Hecklinski at the Helmski. One guy I like is Kamari Moulton. He has in his last game, he had two hundred eight yards and two touchdowns, which was against Washington, which say what you want about Washington. But they're not just a lay down defense. I think they're decent.
And we We saw that against Purdue, that they're not just going to lay down and let teams score all over them. But on top of that, Iowa is coming off of a bye Week, so Moulton has some rest. I know both of these teams had a bye last Week, but, you know, I'm getting flashbacks to two years ago when Caleb Johnson ran for more than two hundred yards on Minnesota. And I think Moulton sets up in a similar spot here.
Same three pass catchers we talk about with Iowa every single Week, Tony Diaz, Reese Van Der Zee, D.J. Bonamy. But Van Der Zee is the one that's had a little bit more steady increased usage. Basically, ever since he's been in the national spotlight catching that game winning touchdown against Michigan, his usage has been up there. DJ Vanami only ran seven routes against Washington, but caught both of his targets for touchdowns, which was super helpful.
And again, with a bye Week, I expect these guys to be fully healthy now. There's a couple of them that have been on the report Week in, Week out. But they should be good to go. I wouldn't be surprised to see Evan James have a random spike game, too, just because when he does get on the field, he plays from the slot. And that's where I want to attack Minnesota. On the Minnesota side, Drake Lindsey, $6,300, has made some very good throws this year.
So many plays that he's just a few inches away from being elite. But he's also made some very dumb throws and throws bad interceptions from time to time. Uh, and even though he's cheap and I think you can throw an Iowa a little bit, Minnesota has this incessant need to run the ball, no matter what the game situation is. Third quarter down by seven team to Purdue run on first down, run on second down, run on third down three and out.
And I don't, I don't know why, but that's just something we've grown accustomed to in Minnesota. Personal bias aside, that's not good for DFS quarterbacks when that's your approach to real life football. And I don't know what to make of Darius Taylor. He's involved in the past game, so that's why I think he's still RB one in terms of DFS. But man, if I didn't think that TJ Thomas could easily outscore him, he's been the much better running back all season long.
And you get a significant savings. I don't know if you're going to this team anyway. And then in the past catching room, Noah Jennings had three catches for fifteen yards against Purdue, but again, was just a few inches away from six catches for one hundred plus and a touchdown. So like the box score doesn't tell you everything.
Javon Tracy and Jalen Smith are the other guys that are out there Tracy with the shorter a dot maybe but Pierce Walsh is out which are not out he's questionable which could lead to more for Roman Voss who was Minnesota's top ranked football recruit in this class so this this little red thing for those of you watching should be on Pierce Walsh not Roman Voss but I would not be surprised to see Roman Boss get more time on the field.
Even in Mimprice, not recommending playing him, but that's more of an awareness. Hey, when you see Roman Boss has two catches for thirty yards and a touchdown, it's because Walsh is out and this is his opportunity. But I have maroon colored glasses on and still want to take Iowa minus seven and a half in this game. So that that tells you everything in terms of my thoughts. Kenny, are you touching this game for DFS and why is it the Iowa side?
Yeah, I am as crazy as it sounds to say out loud. I love Iowa this Week like maltunes that third running back that I was talking about is kind of the three guys I think are separating themselves from me on this SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. I think the volume is going to be there. I think the efficiency is going to be there. I'm not scared of Minnesota's defense. Like I think they're kind of below average from what they have been. Sorry. Sorry. Just plug your ears.
I agree with everything you're saying. And so like, I really love Maltune that Week. So where I, I wish like Linsky was $5,500 instead of $6,500 because I would have a ton of interest in him. I think he's got really good pairing options and Diaz, Van Der Zee and Bonamy. Like I almost think that.
Like Maltune and one of these pass catchers like I kind of like it's like not using heck Linsky and hoping that the bottom he catches the two touchdowns or Van Der Zee or Diaz any of them I probably prefer the bottom two just because of prices but I'm gonna have a lot of exposure to Iowa as gross as that sounds And because of that, I really wanted to look into Minnesota and just kind of like how I would attack Iowa or what's going to get there for fantasy goodness.
I was susceptible like through the air, like against Washington, Elijah Brown came in and Iowa was kicking the shit out of Washington. Don't get me wrong, but he came in through for two and fifty yards and three touchdowns in the second half. Jeremiah Smith did his thing against Iowa, both Michigan receivers with Bryce Underwood as their quarterback went over one hundred yards.
I'd like to see Jennings and Tracy like a thousand dollars cheaper, but I'm going to take some shots on like some minis with like a Maltine and a Minnesota wide receiver. I'm going to force them to be CorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Read the full definition of Correlation with the Hawkeye. So, I mean, yeah, like this game, I mean, Maltine will pull some OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. I don't think anybody else is going to pull anything. And I might even have Jeremy Hecklinski in my pool this Week. It's like a Hecklinski, Maltune, and a Van Der Zee or Vaughn.
I think Iowa's offense is good. They scored fourteen against Ohio State, and Hecklinski had to come in and clean up kind of in garbage time there and look good. He was fine last Week. He had two and two and three, but he didn't have a need to throw.
Not that he's going to here necessarily, but I think it's super sneaky and like one of the rare opportunities over the years that we do get to like play Iowa guys with confidence and don't like we actually have to talk about it now. So, yeah, more interest than I thought I would have for an Iowa Minnesota game for the whatever trophy, the hog trophy. It's Floyd of Rosedale. It started off as a real pig. But now it's just a pig trophy.
Not real pigs being exchanged anymore. They just take the State Fair Grand Champion Barrow and that's what they would get. Speaking of Minnesota over Iowa State Fair, ten out of ten times. So we're going to hold on to that as long as Iowa keeps whooping our butt at football. I will say, I'll give Iowa props. Their State Fair has improved over the years. I went and saw Train there like fifteen years ago. I mean, the venue, the band was fine. Like the concert was okay.
All right. Last game on the slate, Michigan State at UCLA. Michigan State, a big underdog for good reason. I mean, there's not a lot to talk about with Michigan State other than the injury situation because Alessio Milivojevic is questionable after his best statistical game of the season. They almost beat Northwestern, which I mean, I thought Northwestern was pretty good. Uh, so that might be something for Michigan. That might be Michigan state's shining moment of the season.
Uh, but that would mean that we'd have Cade Kaufman, who was a four-star true freshmen, likely the QB in waiting. Uh, and honestly, Emilia Voyevich might not even be hurt. This might just be a, let's see what we got in this kid. Give him some confidence. I don't know that UCLA on the road is the right game to test that out, but, um, I don't think it's going to get worse, uh, you know, for Michigan state in this spot.
Another guy, Jazeem Patterson, also questionable. Like at quarterback, another Cam, Cam Edwards. Cam Fancher's out. That's why Kauffman would get the start. But Cam Edwards is also out. At least Marvis Parrish, Brandon Tullis, and maybe Zion Gist or Gist. I mean, you get the gist of what I'm saying. There's not a lot to love on this Michigan State side. The wide receivers, I mean, you could mix and match these top four guys. Savory, McCray, Moore, Bullard.
They essentially have been getting equal opportunity, equal Target ShareIn college football, target share is the same percentage of team targets, but it is often far more concentrated: many offenses send a third or more of their throws to one receiver or tight end.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Read the full definition of Target Share. If you get the one that scores a touchdown, maybe you're doing all right. I just don't know that I'm going to go there here. But if you get a guy that gets two touchdowns, you're going to get them at virtually no OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. On the UCLA side, Ty Dieffenbach didn't get a touchdown, but did go for two hundred and sixty four yards.
And one of those guys, like if you need a cheap quarterback in the five case, this might be your first look just because of the matchup.
Thing that might talk me off of him is because I think Wayne Knight could run for ten yards of carry the entire game on this michigan state defense he only averages fourteen carries a game but he's averaging seven yards of carry on those carries is involved in the past game enough woods and Thomas are going to eat in quite a bit but so far this season it hasn't been enough knight's one of those guys where you look at his usage and you're like how is this guy eight six it's like oh because he runs for twenty five yards every other time he touches the ball uh and then If we're talking wide receivers in Diefenbach's first start, it was actually Jalen St.
Paul and Aiden Mizell getting the heavier target share. JSP saw a season high in routes run at sixteen. Mizell, his season high with fifteen. I mean, Samaj Morgan is still probably wide receiver one. Landon Ellis is probably fine. You know, Brian Rowe is on the field enough, but I'd have to look back.
I think I'd I've had to look back at this guy like multiple times because I forget to take notes on him, which if I'm not taking notes on a guy and just outright say I don't like him, there's definitely a reason, but it's probably a significant enough reason that I didn't even want to waste the energy. Oh, it's because he's got a fifty percent catch rate and was targeted two times against Wisconsin, one catch on four targets against Oregon, one catch on two targets against Maryland.
It's just been a rough stretch for him and It just seems like they're working in these other guys a lot more. Maybe that's all to say. I don't know that I'm touching this, but if we're going to get six targets on sixteen routes for Jalen St. Paul at $3,000 against Michigan State, maybe he's your min price dart that opens up a lot more with the rest of your lineup. Yeah, what a what a gross game.
This one I actually don't don't like as compared to the previous two. The Michigan State side, there's just nothing here for me. Honestly, if it was an East Lansing, Michigan State has been coming. They could have beaten Northwestern last Week, came back against Illinois. The team's not quitting. I might actually like them with the points if they're at home, but this just feels like a spot where UCLA just kind of controls the game. Yeah.
Like, Deffenbeck had good enough numbers last Week. He just didn't have any touchdowns. The issue is, like, I don't know how to pick a guy to pair with him because, like you talked about, like, Like Samaj Morgan had five for eighty four last Week. Like that's a usable stat line if he scores a touchdown here. But I don't know.
Devin Bach might just be like a guy you play by himself and hope that he throws a couple of touchdowns because it's hard to predict where it's going to be at. I haven't really fully looked into that spot, but he does. I do have some interest in him kind of listening to you talk about him. Wayne Knight is too damn expensive.
Like, okay, if it's a close game, like last Week they were ahead, but it was somewhat like, controlling the ball but they weren't necessarily pulling away I mean thirteen for twenty three is never gonna get you there at $8,600 I don't care how many like touchdowns you score I um and like if ucla is pulling away and it's a blowout um then the woods Thomas are gonna get involved that being said maybe a reason they're blowing them out is because Wayne Knight's having such a good game but it's just too muddled for me and I just like I just can't justify paying $8,600 for Wayne Knight when I can play bishop or Williams cheaper that are in way better spots to me.
So really this game I'm out on as a whole, but going to revisit the UCLA passing game. I don't, God, that's just gross. Nothing feels really good here. No. And it's, you see, like, like I said, this is one of those receiver and cores that I would look at if I, if I really love a lineup and need a $3,200 or less wide receiver. Um, that's one of the spots I might go to, uh, but that's going to do it.
I mean, for the, for the Saturday main SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate, do you have any thoughts on Friday? We have this posted here. I'll actually refresh the page. I believe we have the pretty version out and get a little sneak peek at what it looks like because we show ProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections ownership, optimal rate LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage, and how many targets rushes team grades pace, a lot of different things that are very helpful when you're building your lineups. Big Injury NewsInjury news is information about a player's health that can change whether they compete, how much they play or how effectively they perform. In DFS, it also affects opportunities for teammates and opponents.Before an uncertain player's game locks, identify an alternative you can afford at each affected position. Check whether making that change would require another player whose game starts earlier.Read the full definition of Injury News we're watching for Friday, Pop Watson, T.Y.
Harding, which is weird to say that we're watching UMass so closely. I did find out, though, and I'd slash remember, the Mac posts availability reports regardless of if it's a conference game or not. So we are going to learn if these guys are questionable or in or out on the Injury NewsInjury news is information about a player's health that can change whether they compete, how much they play or how effectively they perform. In DFS, it also affects opportunities for teammates and opponents.Before an uncertain player's game locks, identify an alternative you can afford at each affected position. Check whether making that change would require another player whose game starts earlier.Read the full definition of Injury News, and it's an early game, so that's nice, too. But any overall thoughts?
I wish, I mean, the quarterbacks in this five-game Friday SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate are like leaps and bounds better than the quarterbacks on Saturday it seems like yeah it's it's kind of a weird slate where we've got two service academies so like it just throws like a whole team's worth of wide receivers out of the pool like the wide receivers really kind of suck tonight um so that's kind of where I'm taking like shots at um I don't mind like really really punting that spot I'd I guess where I kind of started My lineup tonight was using the Army quarterback and then trying to figure out some Tulsa pieces to build around it.
I kind of like Traquan Jones for Tulsa. I don't know how heavy I'm going to be on him, but I think that's kind of interesting. He's been super efficient, and Alston isn't getting all that much volume for his price. I kind of like the OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership discount and savings you get with Jones tonight, so that's kind of a sneaky one I have. So just showing off the stone to point out it was Trey Kwan, Joe, and you said, right? Yes.
So if you want to start there, you can start there. Lock these guys in. That's where I want to start. Then let our ProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections do the rest. Oh, I really like that lineup. I'm going to go save it. And now it's a save lineup over here.
And I mean, Osborne for Yukon, Sheppard for Duke, Gause for NC State with no
Duke scott gonna look really good tonight so uh but yeah that's just the way a fun way to show off yeah that lineup actually is like really like you have a nice pairing with the yukon you got uh two Mini-StackIn CFB DFS, a mini-stack is a small group of players with connected scoring opportunities, often opposing skill players outside your main quarterback stack. Its value depends on each offense's pace, player roles and likely game flow.Before locking a pair, describe how both players reach big scores together. Then ask whether that outcome would make an omitted quarterback or teammate difficult to beat.Read the full definition of Mini-Stack in there then
You have the onslaught of the nc state against sanford defense that's that's a pretty solid lineup yeah and I I mean I like it for Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry because in single I guess I'm really only looking for one LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage spot and eleven percent's low enough bones what we haven't projected that he could come in even lower than that because he's an rb two speaking up though these midweek slates play like rb four might score two touchdowns tonight just be prepared for that that's that's always and with service academies rb seven might score a touchdown just that's one thing you got to prepare yourself for but uh that's going to wrap it up any other thoughts on on Saturday before we get out of here kenny No, not a lot.
It just seems like it's going to be a good GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Read the full definition of GPP SlateA slate in DFS is the set of games, races, fights or tournament rounds covered by a contest. It determines which events your player selections can come from and which performances count toward your score.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate for me. Like, PCU feels super comfortable with. Like, I don't mind eating that chalk. And then beyond that, I really don't feel great about anything. Yeah, yeah, definitely. Like we've said multiple times, a lot different than last Week. But, I mean, it's still fun to play DFS and put the puzzle together. And that leads into the big guys rule number one, how we end every show. Rule number one, college football is fun.
Enjoy building the lineups. Enjoy putting that puzzle together. Enjoy sweating. As you watch these college football games on TV, just be thankful that we have the opportunity to do that. And the most important thing, never take any of these days for granted. We never know which one's going to be our last. But that's going to wrap it up for College Football Ship It Nation Week Eight's breakdown. For my man, Kenny, I'm Dalla Bill.
Let's go out and ship one for the big guy.
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