UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

A little different than some of our recent ones. We have $9,700 and then it goes $9,500. Then it goes at $9,400 $9,300. The upper tier nine case is strong. Yeah. What are your initial thoughts on this card? I think ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership is going to be actually pretty tough. I think a lot of it's just going to go to the main event just based on a lot of people like in Gene Silva and it being a main event.

And then I think McMillan Rahiki is going to get a ton of ownership as well. Aside from that, I think it can get pretty spread out. There's a lot of guys I think could get higher on, but at the same time, they're risky plays. So I think it'll keep them in check. Yeah, eight of the fourteen fights are expected to finish. This McMillan-Rahiki fight is, I mean, just, again, an absolute banger. It'll probably be the highest zone for DFS. I think it will, or it should be.

Kind of, it's a big favorite in the main event is Silva, minus four twenty-five, so that will lead to big ownership on the Silva side, not as much on Delgado, similar to like we saw last week. One-oh-four, though, is not on the optimal, so... We'll get into it. We'll go fight by fight. Appreciate everyone hanging out. We'll touch on some marketing stuff in a little bit, talking what we have for the NFL season. Obviously, we have a game tonight, so super excited.

Hoop, Tambo, and myself already did a show, but let's talk some fights first, then we'll get into that. We got Regina. Taren taking on JJ Aldrich. Taren at minus-two-seventy. Aldrich plus-two-twenty-two. Plus-two-thirty for this fight to finish. Taren plus-two-fifty inside the distance. Aldrich plus-nine-fifty. This one's tough for me to get to. Big Marley, ninety-one-hundred. Plus-two-fifty inside the distance. It's not terrible. It's not great, though. It's expected to go the distance. Over-two-and-a-half is... Minus three twenty five.

Not a fight I'm looking to get too much. Tariq or Taryn by decision is how I see it. What about you? Yeah, I think I'm definitely not excited to get to this fight, but I think Taryn is a way for me to get a little bit different. Aldridge is the cleaner boxer, just the better pure striking. But she is too low volume for me to like her to even win in the striking category.

I think Taryn's a little sloppier on the feet, but she could double up Aldridge in volume alone if it stays standing. But on the regional scene, she was mixing in a lot of takedowns, and I think she's live for takedowns in this fight, maybe a good amount of control time, could be active in top control as well. And I also think a submission has some potential too.

So I'm going to play a little bit of Taryn just to get different, and that'll be a lot of the lineups where I have McMillan and Silva or Delgado, something like that. And play for a hundred plus just because of her volume alone. And if she's looking to grapple, especially. All right. That's a little more interesting than I initially had. Taryn would be my preferred play. I don't love Aldrich. I think there's other dogs. Hey, Aldrich's a four play. It's supposed to go all fifteen minutes.

I still in a loss. I don't think she scores enough. Whereas there's some other underdogs, at least when they win, they'll score and you can feel good about it being optimal. And you get no leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage because Taryn's not getting any ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. But yeah, maybe I'll boost Taryn a little bit. I just don't really think she wrestles in this one. Round one props, not great. She has $9,100, though.

So at least you get a couple hundred dollar discount from the Silva's, Belgory's, Baja Mundes of the world. So, yeah, I'm fine with it, I guess, in shocker lineups. All right, we'll keep rolling. Next fight on the card. We got Sean King taking on Jesse Rojas. Minus two oh five King. Plus one seventy seven is Rojas. Minus one fifty for this fight to finish. King plus one forty five inside the distance. Rojas plus two eighty. We have three mid-tier fights on the card.

This is the only expected to finish again at minus one fifty. The other one plus one seventy five. The other one plus two thirty. So that'll lead to this fight getting canceled. I guess more ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership than usual. However, with that being said, a couple hundred dollars more, the Tommy McMillan fight, the Waldo fight, Igar Chires, Tim Elliott. So there are some fights in the range that others will prefer. It's going to get ownership, I think, rightfully so on both sides. Inside the distance props are there.

Both guys well-rounded. Submission props, King plus five-fifty, Rosas plus four-seventy-five. Probably plays out on the mat a little bit. Is that how you see it, Big Mom? Man, I'm not really sure on this fight. I think I can go any which way on this one. I think it could bust in a decision either side. But I also think it could play out pretty close. King, he looks like the more powerful guy, the more imposing wrestler of the two. I think the bigger guy as well.

But Rosas looks quicker, possibly the better submission grappler. So I'm just not sure on this one. I'd imagine ownership's going to go to King because the money's kept going to him. So maybe that puts me a little bit more on the Rosa side, but I'm not sure on this one. I think it's closer to a three than a five star, but I'm fine with either side. Yeah, I think so as well. King open minus one fifty.

I put all these odds up on Tuesday with some King minus one eighty Tuesday now minus two oh five. That's quite a bit of line movement. So I'm going to keep a close eye on that one. And if it keeps increasing, to be honest, I'll probably go with the line movement, even with ownership. I don't think the ownership would move with it enough on this thirteen fight card for it to be effective. For it to be worth going to the Rosas side.

So I'm going to play a little Rosas. Obviously, again, it's a good fight to target expected to finish, but I'm leaning King, even though he is eight hundred or six hundred more. What's up, Lone Wolf? Great to see you. I hope you're doing well. Again, appreciate everyone hanging out, watching live or watching on playback. The real fans, even though NFL is back, hey, we still need something to do on Saturdays.

College football now is here, but UFC is where you should, yeah, where we spend our Saturdays watching football. Let me go over to Shippenation.com just to show off quick. I did mention college football. We do have access to that. We have single sport for all of these sports. You see above MLB, MMA, NASCAR, NFL. Obviously, if you want NFL only, you can see the deal here. But you're watching MMA. You want either all access or the five-day trial.

Five days, you can get in for nineteen dollars. Get our showdown content tonight. Showdown content Monday. Showdown content Thursday. Sunday nights. We do have that as well. We also have main slateSlateIn MMA DFS, a slate usually covers the eligible bouts from one fight card. It can include preliminary bouts as well as the main card, so the headline fights are not your only possible source of fighters.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate NFL. Of course, you can see all of our content above.

Stone the Stone 2.0 point oh Slate Station value report our man he our hebrew cheetah does that you can see core reports on here also as you can see above $45,000 in cash and prizes we are giving away all you need to be is an NFL only member or an all access member which you can see again right here multiple different options monthly or above gets you qualified for that do get in the Discord if you do join that is how you do get into the Ship It Games four hundred ninety nine people the top three Do get a ballot and move on to the fun in the later parts of the year.

You can also just click this link above. We did get a fix from last week, and it breaks down everything right here. All right, let's get back to the MMA stone. The third fight on the card, Rong Zhu, minus-one-fifty-eight, taking on Rafa Garcia, plus-one-thirty-eight, plus-one-seventy-five for this fight to finish. Garcia, the underdog, better inside the distance prop at plus-three-twenty-five, Rong plus-three-seventy-five. Take it away. Yeah, I think this is one of my favorite underdog plays on the card just because of Garcia's pace and pressure alone.

I do like Rong Zhu to be the better striker at range, the better athlete overall, more knockout power. But I think he needs to keep this one standing. So he might be relying on a knockout at $8,500. Garcia, I think pace alone on the feet, he can ten X a $7,700 decision if it is mostly striking based. But I also think he has one hundred plus upside by mixing in multiple takedowns and multiple rounds. So I do like Garcia.

I think he just has more ways to win this fight, make it a dirty fight, get on the inside, grind on the cage until you can get takedowns. And I just think that heavy pressure and pace will start to wear on Rong Zhu. So I like Garcia to win a decision in this one and pay off that price tag. I'm in agreement. Well, I'm in agreement that my preferred play is Hoffa Garcia. I'm picking Rong Zhu to win the decision.

He's just made a lot of improvements since the start of his career. Second stint in the UFC. I just think he's the better striker. His takedown defense has been good. With that being said, that doesn't necessarily translate to points at $8,500, which is my concern. But. Because I'm picking Rongzhu, because I think Jafa Garcia does get a decent amount of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership, I don't know. I'm probably going to be along the field, maybe slightly underweight Garcia. When he wins, he scores.

That's the reason to play him. He's going to want to wrestle. I don't think he has the striking advantage, so I think he's forced to wrestle most of the fight. But he is six years younger. He is giving up some height. Rongzhu has impressed me. I think he wins the decision. So... Yeah, I mean, how many lineups would you need to play any wrong zoo, Big Marley? Like, I just don't know how far Garcia is so tough. I just don't see it.

Yeah, with ten, I wouldn't get there. With twenty, I would think about it. I would definitely play him if I'm getting much over twenty. Like, fifty lineups, I'm definitely playing some wrong zoo. I think that Garcia's pace alone should help wrong zoo as well, and that knockout could come in the first round, and he could be a slateSlateIn MMA DFS, a slate usually covers the eligible bouts from one fight card. It can include preliminary bouts as well as the main card, so the headline fights are not your only possible source of fighters.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate breaker. Let's see. Plus three, seventy five is twenty one percent. Like how many of his finishes do you think are optimal? I'd say more than half.

OK, so yeah, maybe like twelve, thirteen percent, probably along or around the field is probably optimal. If you are playing fifty plus teams or even. Yeah, probably fifty plus. Then I'd be playing all twenty six fighters more than likely every single week. All right, let's keep it rolling to the next fight on the card. Tommy Gant and Dracar close. Big favorite is Gant at minus four thirty five close plus three thirty five. This fight is minus two sixty to finish.

Gant minus two hundred inside the distance close plus three. Gant plus one seventy five in round one. Gant is someone that I want to play a lot in DFS. It really doesn't matter what his price is. Scored one twenty nine in his debut. Went six for seventeen on takedown attempts in two rounds. Anyone that's doing that is good for DFS. So I'm in at $9,400. Probably my favorite $9,000 option on the slateSlateIn MMA DFS, a slate usually covers the eligible bouts from one fight card. It can include preliminary bouts as well as the main card, so the headline fights are not your only possible source of fighters.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate, even at the price, even more than Silva.

I think his upside is pretty much unmatched minus the McMillan fight. Do you see it the same? Yeah. Gant's my favorite play on the card. I'm going to get a ton of Gant. I doubt I'll even get to any close as a hedge. Close is the experienced vet. He's going to have the striking edge in this one. But Gant is just such a nasty wrestler and he is powerful as well. I think he's going to be landing takedowns.

And landing some heavy ground and pound as well. So I like him to get a TKO on the ground at some point in this fight. But even in a decision alone, he has the wrestling to pay off a $9,400 price tag. So I'm cool with Gant. I'm going to be playing him in a lot of his fights. But I think this is a good fight to start to build his name.

Yeah, I will say it's worth noting Tuesday minus five hundred was Gant. Now he's minus four thirty five. So some money came back on the close side. I do expect Gant. I mean, people are going to play him. I do think he's probably going to be in the upper thirties percent maybe. And close if he wins, he's $6,800, even seventy. You would take it $6,800.

So I do think there is a case to be made for close, not only taking money, but getting leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage off of Gant at a very cheap price tag. So. Let's see what he is. He's plus three thirty five plus three thirty five is twenty three percent playing eighteen percent close. We'll get you overweight. And that is a little less than his money line. So I actually like that in larger field stuff.

I do also like how the bout order, $9,500 Bob Moondays, $9,700 Belgory, $9,400 Gantz. So we can compare these next two fights, all the favorites to each other and the dogs with each other. But this is the highest priced and biggest favorite on the card. Usuri, Belgory, minus seven fifty. Thinking on Jordan Santos, plus five thirty-four, minus two hundred for this fight to finish. Belgory, minus one seventy inside the distance. Santos, plus eight hundred.

And then Belgory runs one plus two hundred. So Belgory, more of a striker, more expensive than Gant and worse inside the distance and run one props. Usually that's not that's not something that I'm going to want to spend the extra money for. So I don't know how much I'm going to get. I definitely prefer Gant. What about you? Yeah, I prefer Gant. I think Bellagori is going to need a first round knockoutRound One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish to pay off a $9,700 price tag.

It's just I don't know if we'll have enough underdogs to to even get there. So I'm not going to force him into any lineups at all. I really don't want to play Santos either. I think they're both primary strikers. Bellagori is going to be a lot taller, longer, just the more decorated kickboxer. And I think at some point he is going to knock out Santos. If it's in the second or the third round, though, it's likely too late at that point.

I don't think there's going to be crazy volume leading up to it. Maybe he can get multiple knockdowns and that would be what puts him there. So I'm not completely against using him. But yeah, if it's between him and Gant, I'd rather even save the three hundred, even if I could afford Belgory. So, yeah, give me Belgory to get a win and just not score enough. Yeah, I'm totally with you. How would you rank Close or Santos if you had to pick?

I'd probably like Santos just a little bit because this could be a little market overcorrection. Belgorio was an underdog in his last two fights. Now he's coming in as minus seven fifty. I mean, I get that he is the better prospect, but it is a limited sample size. And he was also an underdog leading into those fights. Yep. All right. Makes sense. Let's get to the next big favorite in a row.

Ignacio Bahamundes minus five twenty five Muslim Salikov plus four hundred minus three twenty five for this fight to finish. Bahamundes minus two twenty five inside the distance. Salikov plus five seventy five. Bahamundes round one. Plus one, one fifty. Bob Mendes is taking money too. Like it was plus one seventy five. It opened in round one, taking twenty five cents there. It was minus two fifteen inside the distance, now minus two twenty five on the money line, minus three hundred. Bob Mendes now minus five twenty five.

You can see four inches in height, five inch reach advantage.

Bob Mendes is actually coming up a weight class as well, making his debut at welterweight um which I think's good I mean he had a huge huge frame cut a lot of weight for lightweight salikov's forty two nasio should style on him but he's $9,500 I prefer gantt for one hundred less but I do prefer bahamundes to belgori so that's how I rank it I rank it gantt but our gantt ignacio belgori and then I rank it close salikov santos uh take away this

Fight and then do your rankings um yeah I mean salikov is going to be another fade for me he's he's low volume he's definitely got knockout power but if he doesn't knock out bahamondas I just don't know how he even wins this fight he would need bahamondas to not show up and just not go out there and uh throw enough volume like he used like he did against trey ogden Oh, no, that was – Zell Huber did it. Zell Huber did that.

Yeah, yes. But I get those two confused. But Bahamondes, I love his volume. I like his speed. He's a really good striker overall. I think he's the grappling edge as well in this one. So I'm cool with Bahamondes, but $9,500, it's another big price tag. I like him less than Gant, more than Belgory.

And then I'm probably the opposite on – the underdogs give me like santos and then close and then salikov I just really don't want to get to any salikov at all I get that the knockout power is there he's only $6,000 but I think it'll be a bad look for him to win this fight at forty two years old when I think they're really pushing it to be about Monday's win hundred percent I think there's a couple fights on this card where they're pushing it the gant fight alone close has a name thirty six years old I think or thirty eight years old excuse me Taryn, I think the same thing, only twenty years, twenty one years old, eight.

No other kids UFC fights under her belt. So I think a couple on this card that are set up fights. Yeah, that's all I got in this one. Again, appreciate everyone hanging out, though. Oh, you're having a great day. And again, like button helps us out a ton. Two p.m. Eastern is the start time for these fights on Saturday. I believe they moved it up because of the Ryan Garcia Garcia boxing match that they wanted to get in. So. Yeah, give me a lemon a.m.

Over here. I'll be able to get to the fights, maybe go out after for a drink or two, get home for a six a.m. Show the next day, talking some football. So we got a hell of a weekend over here. A lot of money to be made. And again, Chippin Nation dot com to help you make some money or at least try to in the NFL streets, college football, MMA, MLB still going on. NASCAR still going on. You name it.

It's the best time of the year. Chippin Nation dot com. Join the nation can get in as low as nineteen dollars and that'll cover. A lot of good five-day action in the sports world. All right, let me scroll back down. Number seven, Edgar Chara is taking on Tim Elliott. Chara is minus two fifteen. Elliott plus one eighty three minus one thirty five for this fight to finish. Chara is plus one twenty five inside the distance. Elliott plus four fifteen. I'm in on this fight, man.

Even though if you just look at the stone, it would look bad. A lot of red. Chara is even though he doesn't really do too much when he does something, it usually results in a finish. Twelve is thirteen wins are by Chara. Excuse me, thirteen of his fourteen wins are by finish. Nine of those coming by submission. On the Elliott side, he has, I think it was nine submissions of his own, but he's been submitted six times as well.

So I'm going to say someone gets a submission in this fight, and I like it. What about you? Yeah, this is one of my favorite fights on the card. Chires is our moment winner. Elliott is our minute winner. I just think that this fight is going to take place on the ground with Elliott being the wrestler in this one.

And he could grind out three rounds of wrestling and just beat Chai Rez on the cards and score a hundred plus points in a decision at $7,400. So that's why I have it as a three and three. But Chyrez is my preferred play of the two because, I mean, he's just so much more dangerous. He's a way better striker, a lot more dangerous. Ellie's just really awkward and can bring a pace on the feet.

But Chyrez is going to be so much more dangerous in every single round. And even if Ellie is the wrestler, I think Chyrez ends up grabbing a neck at some point and puts him away. So whether it's on the feet or the ground, Chyrez is going to be live for that finish. And I think he gets it at some point. But if he doesn't get the finish, I think Elliott's going to be the winner of the fight. So I just like it either way.

I think more Tim Elliott wins are optimal than Chires. And $8,800 is still somewhat of a real price tag. Like I like $8,800 fight to $8,700 seventy five and eighty six seventy six. These are all fights I want to target. It allows you to leave money like all of them can outscore Gene Silva in the main event and you can leave money that way. So I'm going to be in on all of them.

I do worry, though, like Elliott wins round one, Tyra spends it off his back and all that gets a second round submission and scores like eighty five or whatever. That is also in play for Tyra's because the more the minutes go, he doesn't do as much minute per minute. But when he does, he can get a finish at any time in this one.

So I think I prefer Elliott more of choosing for the fourteen hundred savings and feeling better when he wins that he's there. He's going to offensive wrestle for sure. Just Ken Chara is finding a neck on the feet. I think Chara is the better striker, more powerful striker. So, yeah, I think the fight finishes. Books agree. Flyweight fight minus one thirty five to finish. I'm in on both sides for sure. What's up, Marquis? Great to see you. I hope you're doing well.

Next fight on the card, definitely not my favorite. It's David Martinez and Dan Ige. Minus four twenty, Martinez. Plus three twenty, Ige. Plus one fifty for this fight to finish. Martinez plus one eighty-five inside the distance. Ige plus... Six-fifty, one of my least favorite fights on the card. Ige only been knocked out once. Both guys are strikers. Not much green that we're looking at on the stone. I got this as a fade.

If I had to play any, it'd be Ige, but I think he is outmatched on the feet. He's going to lose a decision. What about you? Yeah, I think this is a fight that's set up for Martinez to get the win. I just really like Martinez's striking overall. He's really fast. He's got such good hands. I think he's got power, and he can go hard for fifteen minutes. Ige, I think he has one-shot knockout power.

That's his only real chance to win a striking match, I think. He should really look to wrestle, I think, in this fight, but he hasn't landed multiple takedowns in, like, A decade, basically. So I wouldn't trust for that to happen. I think this is all Martinez. If he wins all three rounds, I don't think Martinez pays off a $9,200 salary, though. So he probably is reliant on either a knockout or multiple knockdowns for him to get there.

That's why I have it as a two star. Don't really care for this fight, but Martinez is my clear pick to win. I like him a lot. We see it the same. Sounds like we both think it's a fade and Martinez wins the decision. Next fight on the card, Waldo Cortez Acosta minus one ninety. Curtis Blades plus one sixty five minus one fifteen for this fight to finish. Acosta plus one fifty inside the distance. Blades plus four twenty five. What do you think in this one?

Another one I really like because I think it's similar to the Shires Elliott fight where Acosta is probably live to knock out Blades in any round at all. I think he is the better striker, the much more powerful striker. He's more durable. Blades has a questionable chin. He's taken a lot of damage. Took a lot of damage in that last fight against Hokit, but that was an epic fight.

And I think that fight alone makes me think he could stand with Acosta for a while. Uh, but blades needs to get back to his wrestling I think if he wrestles in this fight, he could win all three rounds and look like he should have been a big favorite Uh, he is getting old though.

I don't know that that is in play like it used to be But he is one of those underdogs that has hundred and twenty point upside and I I like to play that but if he Doesn't wrestle. I think he will get knocked out at some point. So I'm cool with either side of this one Um, I don't even remember who I picked to win. Let me see. Uh I picked blades.

So yeah, usually if I don't know who I'm picking to win, it's usually the underdog. I like it. This fight, or like you said, this fight's very similar to the Chira's Elliot fight. You have a four star, both three and three on both. Which one would like fight? Would you have to, if you had played a single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry and you could just target one, which fight would you target? Man. One fight's optimal. One fight's not optimal. Which one is optimal?

I guess I would go with this one just because they're bigger guys. The first round knockoutsRound One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish more in play. Yeah, I think I'd probably agree. And it's close, though. Yeah, super close. I might end up with more exposureExposureExposure is the percentage of your lineups in a contest, or across a slate, that include a particular player, team or stack.Set exposure caps before you build, not after. Decide the most you're willing to have on any one player, then let your lineups fill in around those limits.Read the full definition of Exposure to the other one. I don't know. We'll see. Yeah, it's definitely close. What I was going to say is, you look at Blade's recent fights, it seems like he doesn't even wrestle anymore. However, the Hokit fight, he went two for seven on takedowns.

Not great, but he still shot seven takedowns in what was an all-out war most of that fight. Kunia fight, two for fifteen on takedowns. So at least he's trying, it seems. You looked at it, I guess, a little different than I. You said because of the Hokit fight, he can stand with Acosta for a while, which maybe is true. But, man, I think that was the worst fight to happen to his career. He's already been knocked out five times. He took all that damage.

I am really worried about the chin of Blades. I think Acosta can maybe just touch him a couple times. When the chin goes, it really goes. Acosta not known for just his one shot power, but I am worried about it. Blades can't get takedowns. He gets knocked out or Blades gets him on the mat and he could dominate him there. So I think it's very binary fight to expect or coin flip to finish.

But I think Acosta more live probably for a KO than the market. And most of Blades wins at $7,500 or optimal. So I like this fight a lot. I want to be overweight for sure, and it has to stay in check somewhat in terms of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership because that McMillan-Rahiki fight's right next to it, and we'll get a ton. And then again, Tyrus Elliott is going to get some ownership too, so this fight has to stay in check to an extent.

To a fight that I don't think gets much ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership, kind of similar to the Martinez-Igue fight, is Manon Firo minus .-. Alexa Grasso plus .-. Most likely fight to go the distance on the card at minus .-. Firo plus .- inside the distance. Grasso plus .-. For me, it's dog or pass, and that's just because Grasso's And if she scores seventy, she has a chance, whereas Fiora doesn't. But I think Fiora wins the decision. Don't think Rosso has success wrestling much.

I think it's probably one sided. Thirty twenty seven and this fight busts. So what do you think? Yeah, one of my least favorite fights on the card. I put the four-star next to Grasso and the two-star next to Fiora just because of the pricing alone. I'm picking Fiora to win. I think she is just the more powerful striker, the one who's going to be able to set the pace, better in the clinch. Better wrestler as well.

Grasso's just faster, a better opportunistic submission grappler. Coming off one of the nastiest finishes I've ever seen. So just I would rather play her at seventy three than Fiora at eighty nine. But odds are this won't be in any of my lineups if I'm only making ten or less lineups this week. So pick is Fiora to win, but probably score seventy five to eighty five points. And I don't think that cuts it at eighty nine. I agree. Yeah, you and I are lockstep on this one.

All right, let's get to the people's main events. I have not – I really cannot remember too many fights that I've been more excited to go – like when I am going to the fight that I'm more excited than this fight right here. Man, this – I just – it feels like it can't miss. It feels like there is no outcome, which obviously isn't true. Every fight there's an outcome where it's bad.

I don't understand percentages, but I just do not – Can't comprehend what a bad fight of these two would look like. That's Tommy McMillan and Marwin Rahiki. Minus one sixty to McMillan. Plus one forty to Rahiki. Minus two fifty for this fight to finish. McMillan plus one twenty inside the distance. Rahiki plus two hundred. Yeah, just looking at some of the line movement. We had McMillan open minus one thirty five. A couple of minutes later was minus one eighty five.

A day later, McMillan was minus one thirty three. Then he gets up to minus one seventy one on Tuesday. Let me just make sure. Yeah. Minus one seventy one on Tuesday and now finds himself as a minus one sixty two favorite. This fight opened. Come on. It's not going to refresh. I want to say it opened minus one seventy five to finish and is now minus two fifty.

You can see it was minus two hundred to finish on Tuesday and now it's minus two fifty. Yeah. Open minus one sixty to finish now all the way down to minus two fifty. It's going to be a war. $8,600 $7,600, even though it's three rounds. I'm in for it. I'm in for it. What do you think you're going to how do you see it play out? Who do you like more for DFS? Yeah. Break it down. Yeah, I cannot wait for this fight.

McMillan's going to be one of my favorite fighters in the UFC. I think he has real chance to be an absolute superstar. He's going to need to keep winning, but if he wins this fight, it's going to help out a lot. Ricky doesn't have a great name, but the people who know the sport, they know that this is going to be an epic fight. I think if it ends in the first round, Rahiki is our likely knockout winner.

I think he is just the more skilled striker, has more tools in his striking toolbox, and he is aggressive trying to kill his opponent early in the fight. But I think he can slow down, and I think the longer it goes, the pace that McMillan can set. The volume that he can throw. I think he's just going to drown Rahiki and either knock him out late or win a decision.

But I also think that McMillan is going to be a sneaky wrestler in this fight too, especially in round one when Rahiki is his freshest. So I kind of think McMillan wrestles round one. And then picks up that volume in round two, round three. Either way, I like this fight. I want it to be in every single lineup that I hand build.

I'm going to try to get more McMillan just because he's my favorite fighter on the card, but I definitely want some Rahiki Hedges as well because I think he is super alive to win not only in the first round, but in the first minute. I think he could get a first-sixty-second knockout. Wow. I man, this one's really tough for me. So this is where I'm going with it. I think so many remember Tommy. And like you said, like he has the bigger name.

He fought more recent. He's absolutely put up. What was it? One hundred sixty eight DraftKings points his last time out. In a third-round knockout. He has all the stardom behind him. I think that will translate to people clicking his name more in DFS and could see any site that you look at, the projected ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership just be under on McMillan and over on Rahiki, and it could be something like forty-eight percent, fifty-two percent Tommy McMillan come Saturday, and Rahiki's like thirty-three percent.

It definitely could be wrong. How you predict ownership is very important in a dupe sport like MMA with a limited player pool. But I'm taking that thought process and thinking McMillan gets steam or Hickey moonwalks back and I'm just going to go against the grain. And it's easier for me because he's $1,000 less. They share the same amount of upside. And I like the favorites, like almost always, more than the dogs. It's tougher for me to click dogs.

So with all that going on, I'm just clicking Rahiki, not knowing anything about the sport. Besides that, I think one guy has fandom and is going to steam. But it's pure game theory for me. It's a phenomenal fight. I'm going to be cheering for whoever my best teams are there. Like three fights left. You kind of know the teams you're cheering for. I'll probably be hoping I'm cheering for Tommy because he's the favorite and I feel better about it.

But I'm going to have more Rahiki to the field, I think. You said you're going to have it at a hundred percent of teams. How many, like if you had fifty teams, would you make that rule and still do that? I'd have a hard time. How does it fail? How does it fail? An eye poke, no contest. Yeah, all right.

Then, yeah, load up on it because that outcome, especially with these two junkyard dogs, it'd have to really be bad for them not to quit. So, yeah, twenty eight years old for Tommy, twenty four. He somebody's oh has to go. This is what the sport's all about. I can't wait for it. Co-main event time. I mean, this, like I said, that's the main event, or at least that's the people's co-main event. Like, it's the people's main event, but it should be the co-main event.

This fight has Brandon Moreno, but it's another not great one for DFS, in my opinion. Joseph Morales, minus-one-twenty. Brandon Moreno, plus-a-hundred. Second most likely fight to go the distance at minus-two-ninety. Morales, plus-three-fifty inside the distance. Moreno, plus-five-twenty-five. For me, it's Morales or Buss pretty much for DFS. He wants it on the mat. He's a submission guy. I think if he can catch him in any round, if he gets it in round one, he has a chance.

Moreno, I think his best path, keep it on the feet box. Is he knocking out Morales? I don't know. Props don't really think so, so I'm going to guess that he doesn't. Not a fight I want, Morales or nothing, and I don't even know how much Morales I like. Yeah, I originally started as a two-star on this, and I moved it to a three-star just because it's in the mid-range.

They're both cheap enough where they don't need a hundred points to make the optimal lineup. But I do think I'll play it more like a two-star because I'm not too interested in either side. I like that Moreno is the underdog. He's $7,900. It's UFC Noche, which is why they got him on the card, I believe. So I think there's reasons to play him. But he seems like he's really on the way down. Morales is on the way up.

Morales is the better submission grappler. I like the pace he sets as well. I would worry about a striking match in this fight with just either side scoring sixty points in the decision. But Morales does have the higher upside because of his pace, wrestling and submission. So I think I probably do prefer him over Moreno a little bit. I like it. We're on the same page. All right, last fight of the night, main event time.

Big favorite is Gene Silva, minus-four-twenty-five, taking on Jose Delgado, plus-three-thirty-seven, minus-four-fifty for this fight to finish. Silva, minus-two-seventy-five inside the distance. Delgado, plus-five-twenty-five. Silva, round one, plus-two-fifteen. This was supposed to be Gene Silva and Yair Rodriguez, which I was really pumped for. Out was Rodriguez with an injury in his Jose Delgado. I'll let you start. I've started most of these fights. I'll let you give all your thoughts before mine. Yeah, I think it's going to be a fun main event. Both guys are strikers.

I mean, either one could mix in takedowns, but I expect a striking match in this one. I think Delgado has a much better chance than Vegas does. Silva's the one who's been planning for this fight, so I think the longer it goes, the more it favors him. I like him to be the one pushing the pace, moving forward, eating shots to give shots, being a little bit more dangerous, but Delgado is a slick striker.

I think he could catch Silva in rounds one or two. And put him away and absolutely be a lock for the optimal. But I think the longer it goes, the more he'll start to slow down because of the short notice, and I think Silva would start to take over, probably finish him late, and there could be decent volume as well. So I'm not going to make it a rule to have this fight in my lineup.

I put it as a five-star because it is my second favorite fight behind the McMillan one, but it's not that much ahead of the Acosta fight and the Chires fight either. Those are right there behind this. Yeah, I don't. I don't know if I come in underweight to the main event or just underweight Silva. I think Silva's naturally going to be overclicked and over-owned because he's the main event favorite. But the fight's minus-four-twenty-five to finish.

Just because this fight is the main event, so he has an extra two rounds, it's not expected to get to the championship rounds. So I think it just naturally gets inflated based on that without any merit to it. And he's $9,300. If I can get a lot lower-owned... Let's see. I mean, Terran's a lot lower owned and cheaper, so that's a one-on-one pivot you can do. I was going to say Gant for one hundred more.

I don't think he's going to be much lower owned, to be honest, if at any. I think it's pretty close, but you can drop down to the Acostas or the McMillans or the... Man, all the other options are pretty much ahead of him. Maybe I will get a little more Bahamundes than I initially thought or something like that because I'm playing him instead of Silva.

Even though Silva's two hundred less, I think probably Silva instead of Bahamundes and leaving the money is more popular. I don't know. I think Silva's going to be overrun when it's all said and done, though. I do like Delgado a lot, though, because when he wins, it's really hard for me not like him not being optimal at $6,900. I think he loses. I think Silva knocks him out.

I think Delgado, I'm worried about the durability against the fucking monster of Silva that's going to be in his face, walking him down, barking at him, hands down. He's a scary dude, is Silva. And Delgado can be hurt. But at the price, all of Delgado's wins got to be optimal. And he'll be a lot lower owned and leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage off a chalkier Silva. So I think game theory is leading me that way. Were you going to say something?

I think that makes sense though uh maybe maybe I move it down to a four star and kind of play it a little bit the same yeah I definitely want fades in this one for sure I think this is a good card for DFS a little over $17,000 people I believe twenty dollars was the main uh entry fee for $100,000 up top and yeah thirteen fights twenty six fighters we might not see anyone above fifty percent if so I don't think it's gonna be by too much so a lot of combinations I absolutely cannot wait for this one.

Some great fights littered throughout. And then we got NFL Sunday the very next day. Then we also got NFL on Monday. We're recording this on Thursday. Guess what? We also got NFL in less than two hours. So definitely head over to ShipItNation.com. Bottom left, join the nation. You can get in for all access, monthly or above, which qualifies you for the Ship It Games. Gets you NFL, college football, MLB, MMA. NASCAR on Sundays, all of the sports going on right now.

As you can see, what each package gets you gets cheaper if you do go up to annual versus month. We also do have single sport options if you are just in the MMA streets. And don't even mess with NFL. Less than a dollar a day, you can get over to MMA. Get in the Discord. Check out the Stone. ProjectionsProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections, ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership, everything gets up on Friday. And if there's any updates that's needed, we take Discord and update as well. I'm pumped. Big Marley, best time of the year.

I'm liking what you're rocking, your shirt as well. Final thoughts before we get on out of here. Man, have fun at the fights. I think it's going to be an awesome one to be at. I cannot wait for that Tommy McMillan fight. I hope he wins just for the sport alone. Good luck to you, Title. Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it. Good luck, everybody, for Big Marley. I'm Titletown. Be safe. Good luck. Peace.