UFC DFS: UFC 333 Volkanovski vs. Evloev | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

I think the mid-tier is absolutely stacked, and we have plenty of options in the seven-K range that have good value, money-line value for their price, again, because there are so many short favorites, so... The only one thing I've debated, are you going to stack? If you stacked a fight, I think Jan Marab is a clear one that you would do it. Are you going to stack that? Would you stack Volkov or Volkanovskiy Evlov?

And if you would, how many teams would you need to do so? So I actually think if I were to stack a fight, it would be Volkanovski, Evoev, just because it's right there in the mid-range. It's the one that I have a tough time deciding between the two. So I would just rather stack it. I really doubt that I would, especially with fourteen fights. I feel like I would need more than twenty lineups to even think about stacking. But I don't know.

I haven't built too many lineups yet. I mean, I guess if I if I was hand building lineups and I got to ten, eleven, twelve and I started duplicating lineups that I was already doing, maybe I would think about stacking at that point. But I would originally start not stacking for sure on this card. I agree, and that's how I usually go about it. But, like, last fight, Murab and Jan. Jan won, scored .一, Murab lost and scored .一.

I mean, you take .一 at .一, .一 at .一, both of those scores could be enough. Not guaranteed to be enough on this card, though. What's up, Jake? Just coming from the NBA show. Good to see you in here. YSN always in here as well. Hope everybody's doing well. All we ask is the like button. And subscribe button. We have fourteen fights to talk about, so there's no time to waste. Bottom to top, like always. Yasmin Lucindo, minus three-fifty, taking in Nicole Cagliari, plus two-eighty-four.

One of the most likely fights to go the distance at minus two-fifty. Lucindo, plus two-fifty inside the distance. Cagliari, plus seven-hundred. Totally agree with you. This would be a one-star fight for me. I will not have any in twenty teams or less. You can find a lot better dogs, Moneyline, inside the distance. Then a $7,000 Caliari, which would mean Lucinda would be my preferred play of having to choose. I mean, we just saw Chukagian or whatever her new name is, get a first round knockoutRound One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish.

So anything's possible in this sport. Lucinda would be fine, I guess, but she's $9,200 in a vacuum. When you compare hers to others in the upper tier, it is a very difficult click. So nothing for me in this one. I guess Lucinda, if you're playing fifty teams or more, what do you think? Yeah, I'm just going to X out this fight. I'm going to act like this fight doesn't exist. I'm not going to use either side of it.

I think Cagliari is playable just because she's cheap and she won't have any ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. And I guess if she were to have any edge in this fight, it would be like submission grappling. So maybe she could lock up a sub. And Lucindo might be coming off a PED suspension too. So who knows if she was on some PEDs that were really helping her out as well. But I just really think Lucindo is the better fighter all around.

And it's the $9,200 that's taken me away from her. She's got one, two, three, five UFC wins for seventy three, seventy, seventy three, ninety four, eighty five, seventy four, eighty nine. All those are probably not going to cut it at $9,200. So one star or rare one star. I feel like I probably had less than $10,100 stars since we've been doing this.

Maybe this is getting around ten here, but I don't know that any one of them has ever been the on the optimal lineup. So I'm just going to X these ones out. Totally agree with you on that. Easy one to start because it is an easy fade. Yeah, like these next two fighters I'll talk about, Cody Steele or Santos.

Any Lucindo team, I can easily play Santos or Steele, and you could argue you're only getting more upside as they have better inside-the-distance props. Let's talk about this next fight, Cody Steele, minus-one-fifty-eight. Noah Gugnan, plus-one-thirty-five, minus-two-fifteen for this fight to finish. Steele, plus-one-fifteen inside the distance. Gugnan, plus-two-forty. Steele in round one, opened, plus-three-fifty, now plus-three-twenty-five. Cody Steele also, to win by KO, plus-three-twenty-five, but in to win by sub, opened plus-four-hundred, and now plus-two-twenty-five.

So this is one where, yeah, minus-one-fifty-eight money line usually would make someone like eighty-four-hundred. He's clearly overpriced money line wise, but plus one twenty five inside the distance, plus two twenty five by sub. That's appealing to me on a way to get different price right next to Peter Jan in between the Volk and off ski fight. A solid mid tier. I will be using some steel as ways to get difference on this card.

Uh yeah I mean the first round submissionsRound One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish in play gugnon an opposite of what I said with steel his money line is great for $7,500 is inside the distance props good at plus two forty fights minus two fifteen to finish and I don't think he gets a ton of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership just because of the nature of this card with marab being one hundred less so yeah uh pretty low own fight that's minus two fifteen to finish I plan on being overweight this one what about you Yeah, I wasn't sure on this one.

I'd be fine with this being a two, three, or a four-star fight. I just think both guys are well-rounded, so it might just play out as a fifteen-minute pretty close fight. And I don't know that either guy dominates anywhere, so we might not get a big score. But I do think Steele's the one with the higher ceiling. He has more knockout power on the feet. I do think he's the better wrestler. I think he's the better submission grappler of the two.

So I like him for the ceiling. I also think, as you mentioned, his money line might bring down the ownership. So that's pretty cool as well. But Gugnan... He makes sense as just a live dog. I think he can compete with Steele anywhere. I just don't think he's as good as Steele anywhere. But, I mean, maybe Steele has an off night. Argues with his fucking girlfriend the night before. Who knows?

But Gagnon could just come out there and really compete with Steele and put up over a ten X score here. I am fine with him as an underdog when I'm just kind of searching for dogs that I need to fit into lineups. He's definitely in play. So I got it as a three-star just because of the I don't know factor. But once I start building lineups, maybe I'll shift these stars around. Yeah, I agree. Like, is it going to be optimal?

I mean, who knows? There's so many high like steel could score ninety four and then still not be optimal. $8,700. But I'll take my chance at relatively low ownership in a fight. Minus two fifteen to finish. There's a lot of good fights to target on this card, though, for sure. This next one, another one that seems very, very similar to that last fight. Daniel Santos, minus-one-fifteen. Balaji Oki, minus-one-one. Minus-two-ten for this fight to finish. Santos, plus-one-twenty-five inside the distance.

Oki, plus-two-twenty. Santos in round one. Plus, wow, Oki has the better round one prop. I guess that's just this one book, but a little surprising. Plus three seventy five Oki plus four fifty for Santos. Yeah, I mean, this fight right price right next to the steel range. Pretty see or steel and Santos pretty much of the same inside the distance prop. Oki Gugnan pretty much the same inside the distance prop.

I just feel more confident that this will be higher paced because it's a Daniel Daniel Santos fight. Other than that, though, props look really, really similar. So. You have this one four star, that one three star. So I take it you like this fight more. How do you think it goes down? Yeah, I think it's a really fun fight. I'm looking forward to this one.

I like Oki more than Gugnan because for the same reasons, I think he's a live dog with the money line on his side. I also think he's just more talented. I think he's a good wrestler. I think he's good everywhere. My issue with Oki is his chin, and he's dropping down from one hundred and fifty five pounds to one hundred and forty five pounds here. And he was a big one fifty fiver. So I don't even know how he's going to look at one forty five.

But that chin issue at one fifty five worries me even more. At one forty five. So I actually picked Oki to win almost any time I pick an underdog to win. I'm putting a four stars on them and two on the other. But I am so worried about his chin that I put as a three and three because I just think Santos is really good everywhere as well. He can compete with volume. I think he can mix in wrestling just as well as Oki can.

Maybe I would trust his cardio even more, especially with Oki dropping so much weight. But I trust his durability more than I trust Oki's, and he's got knockout power. He's also got volume that could just kind of drown Oki and knock him out late. So I just like both sides of this fight. This is actually closer to a five-star than a three-star for me, so I'm going to be pretty heavy on both sides of this fight.

I'm not really sure which one I like more. I would imagine if I'm hand-building, I would like Oki more since he's a dog I'm picking to win, so that's probably where I would start with other favorites that I really like more as well. But, man, I just think Santos is alive to knock him out in any round and put up one hundred and ten points. Yeah, this one's definitely tough. Let me check his submission prop to Daniel Santos. Plus four fifty to win by sub.

So, yeah, on the feet, it's going to be really pretty competitive. Okie and Santos, if it does get to the mat, those Santos definitely. A big advantage. Yeah, I mean, like in the vacuum, give me Oki for $1,000 less at pretty much a coin flip. But I do think ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership will lead that way. And Santos will be relatively low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage at $8,600 because he's only minus one fifteen money line. But again, we're hunting for upside.

Both of these guys have a ton of upside and what should be a very high paced and fun fight. So I like this fight a lot. I do like this fight more than still Gugnan. But I also think this fight's higher own than that fight as well. All right, keep it rolling. Next fight on the card. Abubakar, Abubakar, Vagiev minus one forty nine. Take it up. Take it on Jacob Malkoon. Plus one twenty seven plus one ninety five for this fight to finish.

Both guys plus three eighty five inside the distance. Yeah, you can see I put these odds up on Tuesday. Vagiev was minus one seventy two yesterday. He opened minus two seventy five. Now he's all the way down to minus one forty nine a day later. I'm a big Jacob Malkoon guy. I don't know if I've ever picked against him. So I like to see the money coming in on him. I'm picking Jacob Malkoon in this fight. He's sixteen hundred dollars cheaper.

Both guys are primary wrestlers, though. And man, I do not see Jacob Malkoon get out wrestled very often. Even his loss to Brendan Allen. Like Malkoon won that fight, in my opinion. I don't know how he lost. Vagiev wants to wrestle. Malkun wants to wrestle. Vagiev, sixteen hundred dollars more expensive. This fight exposed or expected to go the distance. All of this leads to Malkun or bust, in my opinion. With that being said, though, I guess, like, do you think Vagiev is a better wrestler?

Is it possible? Can he get three, four, five, six takedowns for thirteen minutes of control time? Because that was my worry that I wasn't going to fully X him out. And maybe just Malkoon met his match in terms of a better wrestler. But I do like to see line movement going the way that I wanted. Malkoon, my preferred play, but definitely ears on this one. Yeah, this is my threes all the way around. I just don't know on this fight.

They're both wrestle-heavy type of fighters. I do think we're going to get a full fifteen minutes of this one where both guys do land takedowns. I don't know who the better wrestler is, but I think the guy have probably is the better wrestler. He looks like the stronger wrestler to me. I also think he is the maybe the more dangerous striker just based on his flurries on the feet.

And then Malcolm looks like the better minute winner just over the course of fifteen minutes on the feet. And that is my worries that just two wrestlers turn into a striking match and it's going to be a boring fifteen minutes match. Um, then I would rate it under a three star. I really wouldn't want to touch either side. It would be dog or pass because I do think Malcolm's just live in a striking match.

But the only way this fight ends up on the optimal lineup is if one of these guys wins with wrestling and it could be either one. So I'm just not sure. I guess I would rather side with the underdog, but, uh, I am picking the guy up to win.

I just think he is the Um, more, I don't know about more proven just cause it's the first UFC fight, but he's had a lot more UFC fights and he just looks like the, the fighter that ends in a V that, that would wrestle heavier than, than, uh, an Australian. Yeah, I mean, I can't argue that last point. But, man, Jacob Malkoon, he knows his body weight and his opponent's body weight and how to maneuver that so well.

He's just not someone that I pick against nowadays. But I don't know much about this Vagiev. What I do know, though, is Malkoon's sixteen hundred dollars cheaper. Money's coming in on him and eighty two might be enough for him or eighty two is not enough for Vagiev. So definitely Malkoon. Or pass for the most part, but maybe I'll keep him in the pool, cap him at like ten percent since both these guys do want to wrestle.

And if I am wrong, Bagiev does have some upside there. Let's get to the biggest favorite and highest priced fighter on the card. Asav Shapiro minus six hundred taking on Kobe thickness plus four fifty one minus two ten for this fight to finish. Shapiro minus two ten inside the distance thickness plus eleven fifty. Shapiro round one plus one fifty. I mean, I'm definitely not playing Kobe thickness on this card. It is Shapiro or pass.

The problem is, though, he's $9,500, which is the most on the slateSlateIn MMA DFS, a slate usually covers the eligible bouts from one fight card. It can include preliminary bouts as well as the main card, so the headline fights are not your only possible source of fighters.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. Now you can fit $9,500, I think a lot easier on this card than most cards. I just worry that a lot of when you plug in Choprov, when you plug in both five round fights and if you go to like Blagi, Oki or something, a lot of those lineups will look similar. So that's Definitely can play him. When you play him, though, still try and get different in some way.

Leave money, mix in a low-ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage fighter or two, fade a five-round fight. But yeah, I think we have money on this card to do it since I like the mid-tier and enough dogs where I definitely will be playing some of him. How do you compare him versus Yakiev for one hundred less? And then, yeah, what do you think? How do you think this fight goes down? See, I have this as a four-star because I like him less than Yakiaev, and he's a hundred dollars more.

Makes sense. I mean, he's a smaller guy. I think Chaparov is a solid-looking fighter. I think he looks like kind of the full package. He looks good everywhere. I do imagine he's going to be the better striker in this one, the better submission grappler. Both guys can wrestle, though, and I would play some thickness if I was MMEing on this one because $6,700 is really cheap. I mean, usually I mean, we've already marked out Lucindo and Vagaev at big prices.

Usually when you're paying $6,700 is because you're trying to get up to these guys that are expensive. So I might not need him. But if thickness wins this fight against an unproven chopper of thickness is a wrestler. And I think it would come with a lot of takedowns throughout the three rounds. So I would keep him in my player pool. Um, but I do like chopper off just to be better everywhere.

I just don't trust him as much as this minus five, five, five line here. Um, mine is six hundred now. Mine is only growing. I feel like it was even lower when I was doing it. When I was doing it, it was, um, I got to find it. Yeah. He opened minus two seventy five. Let's see. Just a couple of days ago was minus four seventy five. I mean, money's only gone against them. I'll say Kobe thickness is a really, really tough click on this slate.

Yeah. I mean, I mean, we love over him. We love as a better money line by like almost a full dollar. And like it, we love like a plus eleven fifty for thickness inside the distance. We love plus four fifty. And their ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership will be similar. But you said if thickness wins, you think it'll be heavy wrestling. So that makes sense. Yeah, I think that would be his only real path would be to wrestle and keep a lot of top control.

I mean, in DraftKings, that's what you want. But yeah, my hand builds, I doubt it would be him. It would probably be Choperov. And I think you can get Choperov and Yakia. I have both in the lineups this week. No problem. Usually they're higher than these prices, I feel like, lately anyways. Uh, so I still like both guys. I only put him as our, this fight as a four star because Yaki I have is, is cheaper than him. Um, but yeah, give me chopper off.

I think he does win inside the distance. He could get a knockout, could be a submission. I also think it could be a fun. And he could put up a competitive score in the decision, but I think we do need a finish for him to really put a stamp on the optimal lineup, but give me chopper off. I think he's a good prospect to watch. I like it. Definitely chopper of or pass for me. Next fight on the card, Grant Dawson taking on Nuro Aliyev.

Pretty much a coin flip. I'm seeing minus one Oh seven Dawson minus one Oh nine Aliyev plus one fifty for this fight to finish. Dawson plus two seventy five inside the distance. Aliyev plus three seventy five. This is the first fight that we're talking about in the mid tier. Again, it is expected to go the distance. We have a lot of great mid tier fights. A boost came Roustan expected to finish mid tier. Pico Keita, mid-tier fight, expected to finish. Volkov Kunyev, I think, is a bust.

And then we have Temurov Lani, mid-tier fight, expected to finish. Volkanovskiy Evlov, obviously with five rounds and wrestling upside. So I think we need big boy upside. In the mid-tier. You can see yesterday, this was minus-one-twenty plus-one-oh-three, and now Aliyev's a small favorite, so he's taking money. For me, though, it's Grant Dawson or pass, I think, and mainly will probably be a pass.

If I just think I need a hundred-plus in the mid-tier, I think Dawson has more outs due to his heavy wrestling style and grappling style to get that. Aliyev also a wrestler as well, as you can see, but... I think he's going to probably keep it on the feet more. I just think Grant Dawson's the better wrestler. Tell me if I'm wrong, though, because I want the guy who I think's the better, more willing wrestler in this fight if I'm going to play anyone.

But I don't love it relative to most mid-tier fights. I do like it just because both guys are wrestlers, and I do expect both of them to want to get the fight to the ground. It might just be first one to get it there. I think round one, Aliyev is the better wrestler, and maybe he can continue that for three rounds, but I do like just Dawson's pace and cardio more than Aliyev's.

I think Aliyev wins round one, but Dawson's not going to make it easy on him. He's going to make him scramble. He's going to be getting back up, making Aliyev get multiple takedowns in that first round. And I think Dawson can keep that same pace for three rounds, but I expect Aliyev to start to slow down as the fight moves along.

If it stays standing, maybe Aliyev's more skilled striker, but Dawson's got like that Marab – uh, type of pace where he could just not stop and just keep throwing strikes. I think that would be better than alley of striking. Cause I don't think either one of these guys are getting a knockout and same thing as the guy of Malcolm fight. If we're stuck with a And I like Dawson's overall pace and cardio for fifteen minutes more.

I think rounds two and rounds three start to shift to Dawson. And maybe you're right. Maybe he is the better wrestler. Maybe he wins all three rounds. So I prefer Dawson. I'm probably going to be overweight Dawson. And then I don't want to get burned on Aliyev as I mean, he could be a possible favorite by the time the fight kicks off at $7,700 as a primary wrestler himself. So I probably want to be around the field on Aliyev.

Sounds good. You have a little more interest in this fight than me, but it makes sense when both guys average about three and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. All right, we're going to keep it rolling. Next fight on the card, good mid-tier fight. Abus Magomedov, minus-one-twenty-three. Cam Roustan, plus-one-oh-five. Minus-one-ninety for this fight to finish. Roustan, plus-one-seventy inside the distance. Abus, plus-one-seventy-five. I mean, this fight is really difficult for me because I think they're both very similar in a lot of ways.

The one thing I'm kind of confident in is I think Roustan has better cardio and the fight can favor him the longer it goes. But, I mean, Abus, he hasn't gassed too much. And we saw it in the Strickland fight, but Strictaddy always puts on a pace on guys. But both guys, their sub props, their KO props, their round one props, they're all very, very similar. So it looks like two pretty evenly matched guys.

I'm on the Roustan side of choosing just because he's six hundred dollars cheaper. Any Abus team, I can just go to Roustan. I'm not giving up anything. That's about the only reason, though, that I'm favoring him. Because, again, I look at both these guys as very similar, as do the books. Talk me into one side of this one, Big Marley, or how you think the fight goes. So I think both sides are playable in this one. Because round one, I do like Magomedov.

I think he's the more talented fighter. I think he's more dangerous in round one. I think he's probably just a better all-around striker in round one. I think he's a better wrestler, more likely to get a submission. And then I think he's more likely to guess. So round two and round three, I start to think the talent everywhere starts to shift to Ralston. Ralston might be more likely to get the knockout, more likely to get the submission.

So if Abus wins in round one, he's going to put up a big score. If Ralston wins in general, he can compete for the optimal lineup. So I just like both sides. My worry would be that it is mainly a striking match and it goes the distance. I just don't know that either side will put up a big score. So I think four stars is pretty solid in this one. And just the case for both guys made me put it three and three.

I really don't even know who I picked to win this one. I did it on Saturday. Let me check. Let's see. You're a boost guy, I feel like. All right. I mean, split decision is not going to be optimal. We know that. So if this fight does go the distance, but it is minus one ninety to finish. I'm excited for this one. I think it's a very solid DFS and real life fight.

Before we do get to the next fight, let's hop on over to our new website over here at Shippenation. Very, very clean. Love the color coding, as you can see. What shows we have, free articles, all of the sports we cover. You can see MMA projectionsProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections, ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership, The Stone, The Stone, which helps you virtual hand build or plug in guys, see how much salary, projection, all that good stuff. Slate Station, where all of the breakdowns are, and you can see more.

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Abdul, or Yakiaev, the biggest, or second biggest favorite, his second highest price on the card at minus four seventy-five, taking on Nikita Krylov, plus three seventy-one. Most likely fight to finish at minus $1,000. Yakiaev, minus four hundred inside the distance. Krylov, plus four fifty. Yakiaev, round one, open plus one hundred, now minus one seventy-five. What I will say is, if Yakiaev gets like a knockout or submission or whatever in a minute and eight seconds, I would much rather Go with, what's his nuts?

Shapiro for one hundred more. If he gets end of round one knockoutRound One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish or submission, you probably prefer Yakiev. He's definitely way more alive for that first minute bonus. But I'm worried he just starches them or puts them out in just over a minute. And that's not necessarily what you want on this card. But yeah, he should dominate Krilov, who I definitely am worried about his durability nowadays. Yakiev looks like a monster. Krilov, I'm not playing Krilov or Thickness with twenty teams or less.

They're just way other dogs I prefer that I think are more likely to win. But if Krilov does win, Yakov teams go down. Krilov has to pretty much be optimal, I think. What do you think of this one? I think I might be all in on Yaki. I have just $9,400 going into this. I kind of figured he would be like a ninety six, maybe even $9,700.

Like, I guess you can't with all the pick them type of fights. But based on late last hours we've had lately, these big favorites are usually really expensive. So I like $9,400. I mean, he averages. A hundred and twenty plus points, a hundred and twenty four points on DraftKings in three fights. I think he's super alive for a first round knockout. Krylov's Last three losses, all by knockout. I think this is just a fight that the UFC wants Yakiaev to win.

I think there's really nothing that we've seen. There's no flaws on this guy yet. I mean, maybe Krylov can expose him a little bit here, but I just don't think this is the case. I think Yakiaev could get a takedown, finish him on the ground in the first round, or get a knockout in the first sixty seconds, grab up another quick win bonus. So, hand-building, I'm starting...

Probably every lineup with yakiaev that's that's my plan on this card not going to play any krylov if I was uh going one fifty sure I'll keep krylov and thickness in play but I I just feel like I need more than twenty lineups to get there and I I doubt I do that I doubt I do it on this card but who knows I mean with all these pick them fights maybe I'll just have uh no good lineups I can hand build and I just gotta you know leave it up to the optimizerOptimizerAn optimizer is software that builds DFS lineups within a site's salary cap and roster rules. It uses projected fantasy points, your settings and, in some tools, simulations to select combinations for a chosen goal.Build a small test batch first. Check which players and combinations repeat, and investigate why before increasing the lineup count or changing settings.Read the full definition of Optimizer but we'll see Yeah, you definitely have way more interest in Yakiev than I do, but I also just think any Yakiev team, I'm fine going to Mirzakhanov.

I'm fine going to Abus. I'm fine going to... Man, that's the hard part. When I don't go that, I guess I'm just spamming mid-tier, like Peter Jan, Volk, the Pico fight. I guess it really comes down to, yeah, Yakiv is going to be higher owned than probably people expect, just because Lucindo is not really appealing, and there's just not that many $9,000 options, and it's relatively easy to fit on this card. So they're going to be higher owned than...

Than usual that almost might make me actually like chopper of more than a Yaki. I have, since I do think Yaki is going to be a bit higher on due to his, uh, a hundred savings and a much better inside of the distance prop. But yeah, I got no holes to poke in Yaki. I've really just comes down to building good lineups when you do play them. Next fight on the card, another solid fight.

Definitely excited for this one in real life. Asmat Merzakhanov minus two oh five. Dominic Reyes plus one seventy three minus four hundred for this fight to finish. Merzakhanov minus one fifty inside the distance. Reyes plus two sixty five. Merzakhanov round one plus one seventy. I do think more than likely we probably need a first round finishRound One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish from Merzakhanov to be optimal. Plus one seventy. That was thirty seven percent. And I wouldn't be surprised if Merzakhanov came in about half of that.

Or somewhere around like twenty percent. So just because of that, and like I said, not as many $9,000 options that I love. Merzikanov will be a play for me. He hits like a truck and Dominic Reyes has been knocked out in four of his five losses. So the path is very clear. And I like Dominic Reyes, too. And actually, I like Reyes more than Merzikanov just because he's eighteen hundred cheaper and he's a live dog that I think is going to be pretty low on that.

If he wins, he has plenty of upside since. Yeah, he is thirty six nowadays, but he can still hit like a truck. It takes one straight left to put to put anyone down. So. Yeah, both guys in play for me, both live for knockout at any time, but neither are going to wrestle. And there's a chance both they both respect each other's power. And if this fight gets into the second round, for sure, the third round, it's probably going to bust on both sides.

So I just think ownership's low for a fight that's minus four hundred to finish. So I'm going to play some naturally that way. But plenty of plenty of routes. Birds account of gets a second round finish and is an optimal. So don't go to all in. What do you think? Yeah, I actually think capping Mirzakhanov at his round one odds makes sense to me. I wouldn't want him if I knew the fight was going to make it at a round one.

I mean, he's almost done nothing, but when he's only got one UFC loss. Great fight last one against Costa, too. Costa looked career best. Yeah, true. I mean, Mirzakhanov didn't look great, I guess. Really, one, two, three. Six wins in the UFC. He's got one Oh one, one, twelve, a hundred, seventy three, ninety six, seventy two and $9,000. I feel like only that one twelve is the only one that's really not even guaranteed, but likely to be on the optimal lineup.

And that was a first rounder. So, yeah, I just would not want him at all if it got out of the first round. And I think Reyes is more talented, more athletic than Mirzakhanov. I think he could be light on his feet and look good. It's just that he hasn't looked good in a while. I think Reyes is actually washed. Mirza Akhanov, he looks more durable, more powerful, more trustworthy.

I am picking Mirza Akhanov to win by knockout or a boring decision, which I really wouldn't want him in that case. But I do think Reyes is live. Reyes is the cheapest I would want to be overweight on, though. So I am cool getting Reyes exposure. Even if I was making ten or less lineups, I would still probably want to squeeze in a Reyes lineup in there because I do think – I think he's really, really live in this fight. I mean, what, like, what, four years ago?

I'm picking him to win this fight, right? I mean, I liked Reza a lot back in the day. It's just he looks like Krylov now, I guess. But, yeah, give me Mursakhanov to get a knockout. I think Rastog has a little more juice left in the tank than Krylov, but we'll see this week. Good strikers, Matt, but yeah, the longer the fight goes, the more it's going to hurt Mirzakhanov for sure for DFS. Needs that first-round knockout.

More than likely, that's why I'm capping him there, but thirty-seven percent is his chance at a first-round knockout. Again, that will be a lot higher than his ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. Let's get to, ooh, a five-star. Big Marley's second five-star fight, and he only has four on this card. Two of them are the five-round main and co-main events. So this is the other one besides Yakayev. We got Aaron Pico sitting at minus-one-thirty. Luce and Keita plus-one-eleven. Minus-one-ninety for this fight to finish.

Keita, the underdog, better inside the distance prop at plus-one-thirty-five versus Pico, who's plus-one. I mean, I like that too. K to $7,900 as the better inside the distance prop. If he wins, he's probably knocking out Pico and doing it probably pretty violently. On the other side, even though Pico has the worst inside the distance prop, he's going to be smart if he puts on the wrestling shoes to avoid the striking. With Keita, and that leads to a lot of upside.

In addition to Pico also, if he feints takedowns, comes in with an overhand right, he also has a lot of power himself, absolutely jacked. It's a great fight. I see why you have it as a five-star. I will not make a rule for Volk Evo to have a hundred percent. Part of that reason is, I think this Pico fight, I think Roustan Abus and I think Oki Santos can can outscore those fights.

So, yeah, I think this is if you aren't playing Evlov or Volk, I think this is a fight you most definitely want to get to. Great fight. Who do you think wins? How do you have it? I love this fight. Real life, DFS-wise, I can't wait for this one. I think it's an awesome fight. Pico, one of the most talented fighters, really, in the UFC. I love his striking, his boxing, his power on the feet. And he's an even better wrestler.

It's just that his biggest flaw has always been his chin. And Kieda is a...

A disgusting striker where he can knock out anybody I mean one shot could be all it takes he could knock out pico in the first sixty seconds and you know he's on the optimal lineup so kieta's live for a knockout just with one punch in any given round uh so he's in play as a underdog uh for that reason for sure he is a good striker too not just power he's a good striker too But Pico, man, if we're turning knockouts off, I think Pico could definitely hang with him in a striking match and maybe even win it.

Pico's live to get a knockout of his own, too. I just if I'm his coach, we're not striking in this matchup. Pico, we're striking in the next matchup. But this is the one we're going to go out there and wrestle and look like a minus four hundred favorite. Um, and if we don't even need to worry about our chin, if we're on the ground here.

So, uh, that's what I'm picking to happen is Pico actually wrestles in this fight rather than comes out and looks for a fight of the night paycheck. Uh, so I do want to be overweight to Pico, but his range is like zero points to a hundred and twenty. Uh, so I, I put it as a three and three for that reason. And I do, I am so worried about that knockout. Um, uh, And I mean, at $8,300, any favorite was zero points.

You might as well just chalk that twenty five bucks up or whatever. It's twenty five this week. I mean, it'll be gone at that point. So three and three. But in my heart of hearts, it's a four stars Pico, two stars Kieta. And that's how I will be handballed. Yeah, I mean, yeah, but if Pico loses, you're probably not winning that line if you're getting zero back.

That's why I think MMA is an MME game, because if you had twenty lineups and you really love this fight, want to go all in and go ten and ten, ten of your lineups are dead, but ten of them, if the fight goes how you think, are absolutely looking really good. And that would be over like fifty percent of your lineups being live is is always good. So, yeah, I think it's a great fight.

I'm not going to make rule to have one hundred percent with how good the mid tier is and the two five rounders later. But it is one of my favorite fights to target on the card for sure. And easy to leave money when you do so. One of my favorite fights to one of my least favorite fights. Alexander Volkov minus one twenty one. Rizvan Kuniev plus one oh four plus one sixty for this fight to finish.

Both guys plus three forty inside the distance. Two heavyweights in a fight expected to go the distance on a card like this. Yeah, no thanks. Zero for me in twenty entry and below. If I had to pick one, it'd be Kuniev because he's six hundred cheaper. This fight, if it's if it's optimal, though, I'll be moving on to next week. Gladly. Nothing for me. You. Yeah, I mean, I don't like it because I picked Volkov to win the fight. He's $8,400.

I don't really like him at that price tag. I think he would just be the better striker at range and be more likely to win in a decision, but not score at all in DraftKings. So I really don't like Volkov as the favorite in DFS. So I put the four stars on the Kuniev side because he is live. He could knock out. Volkov. I also think he could wrestle. It's just that who controls the distance in this one.

If it's at range, I like Volkov, but if Kuniev can get on the inside and clinch up or land some powerful shots on the, uh, on the inside or land takedowns, which would be even better. I think he is live to not only win, but put up a decent score. So I think Kuniev makes sense as an underdog. I will get a little bit of him, but I think Volkov is probably an exile for me. Yeah, both of these guys are XLs for me.

Let's get to a little better fight right in that mid-tier. As well, Lonnie Kavanaugh, minus-one-eighteen. Ramazan Temurov, plus-one-oh-one. Minus-one-fifty-five for this fight to finish. The underdog in Temurov, better inside the distance prop at plus-one-fifty. Versus Kavanaugh, who is plus-one. The big difference between these two, the round one props, Temurov plus three fifty, Lonnie plus seven fifty. Temurov is a scary, scary dude early who hits hard. But as the fight goes, he usually fades a little bit. Lonnie, very, very good. Just very technical.

Good light kicks, good striking, absolutely pieced up Morono. But I think he's more likely to win a decision or a late finish, whereas Tamarov, if someone is scoring a hundred plus, I do think Tamarov's the more likely one to do so. So by default, Tamarov, my preferred play, again, since I'm playing for ceilingCeilingCeiling is the high end of a player's or lineup's realistic range of fantasy scores. It describes a big performance that could happen when things go well, not the expected score or an absolute maximum.Describe what must happen for each player to have a huge game. Then check whether those conditions help or hurt the other players in your lineup.Read the full definition of Ceiling outcomes and I think he's more likely for that, But my pick is Lonnie, and if he wins, I don't think this fight probably scores great. So not my favorite in the mid-tier.

It is expected to finish, so I'll have a little bit of both, but I prefer others that we've talked about a lot more. So what's your thoughts on this one, and how would you compare? You have Dawson Aliyev as higher star, so I assume you like that fight more. Yeah, I like that fight more because they're both wanting to get the fight to the ground where these guys are both strikers.

Looking forward to this more from a watching perspective, though, just because it'll be more exciting with two guys who are good strikers. One guy all power in Timurov and one just talented technical striker in Kavanaugh. Yeah, I think you said it great. I think Kavanaugh's live to win late or by decision at $7,900. I just don't really love that very much. But Tim Ross live to win by knockout in any round.

But it could be round one and put up a big score at $7,300. So Tim Ross, definitely my preferred play in this fight. I went back and forth on picking a winner though. I don't know which way it's going to go. Uh, I think I picked Timurov there. Yeah. I picked Timurov by KO just because I didn't even know who would win in a decision. Um, so I'll go overweight to Timurov here.

I do think Kavanaugh, um, I'll be underweight to him just because I think he's similar to like a Gugnan, an Oki, these guys who are alive to win, really close in money line, but they're both cheaper than Kavanaugh. I think there's another one, or Aliyev as well. So I just don't think I'll be able to get to too much Kavanaugh. So it'll probably be Timurov or pass for me. I agree.

I will say I might have a little just because he's plus two sixty inside the distance, which is solid. But I do prefer Gugnan Oki for sure. I do prefer over Lonnie for cheaper. All right. Last two fights. Both five rounders. Both title fights. Two sick, sick fights when we're talking real life. Peter Jan minus one sixty. Murad Bivalishvili plus one thirty six. Plus two fifteen for this fight to finish. Jan plus two eighty five inside the distance. Murad plus one.

So in their first fight, Merab shoots, what, forty nine takedowns or something crazy, wins a unanimous decision, looks absolutely unstoppable for a long time. Rumors Jan was sick in that fight. Who knows? Comes back as a good sized underdog in the last fight and absolutely dominates Merab, stuffing most takedowns, outworking him on the feet, just looked way ahead of the game. It looks levels above Jan.

Now he finds himself as a favorite in this one at minus one sixty in the trilogy. Again, I mentioned at the top, but Jan scored one nineteen in that win. Marov scored ninety in a loss, which does bring in a lot of different outcomes. It brings in a fight stack possibility. It brings in Jan winning a decision. But not being optimal because he might score one Oh eight, which probably is optimal, but not guaranteed on this card.

And Merab is ninety three and a loss is enough at $7,400. There's so many different ways this fight can go for DFS, which makes it tricky. What I do know is I think I'm I don't know. I think I'm going to make a rule. To have at least a hundred percent. Like, I feel like even when Jan wins again, one, like he did good. He didn't do like anything crazy. Murad just pushes such a pace in terms of a pick.

I've got the first two fights wrong. So I would just probably fade whatever I say in this one, but nothing that I watched in that last fight, um, can tell me that Murad is going to win this fight. It just looks like Jan was levels above, um, And he had Merab figured out. So again, that's crazy for me to say, especially again, I've been wrong in the last two fights.

It's almost like I'm just going with confirmation bias on what happened last time, which is the wrong way to play DFS sports bet and all of that. But yeah, I just, I can't pick against, I can't pick Merab over Jan after that last fight, since it was clear, clear domination. You have more stars on the Merab side. Is that because of his DFS style or you think he wins? Um, both. I mean, I think it's just closer to a pick-em fight.

So I picked Murab to win for that reason. Because Jan's a decent-sized favorite. Um, but also...

Because marab has three UFC losses and in those losses he averages eighty eight trafficking points I mean at $7,400 I might just be all in on rob I mean even in a loss in his last time to yanni he probably flirted with the optimal lineup if he wasn't on it but he was uh I would imagine he was a favorite or expensive that time now we're getting them $7,400 that's like unheard of so I probably just lock in marab and maybe that does lead me to a couple stats I was actually building a couple lineups as we were talking and it

I left I was left with $8,800 for my last shit maybe I will be stacking this fight um so I do think the stack makes sense but since I'm picking marab to win I'm gonna be overweight marab underweight uh yan I don't think yan has any chance to make the optimal lineup in a loss so no let me just make Murad my favorite underdog on the entire card. Yeah. And he's going to be the highest zone. There's no hot take on that.

Again, he can get there in a loss. He's definitely going to get there in a win. So when you just do that, if you plug in plus one thirty nine, which is his money line right now, forty one point eight percent. If you do believe those odds are efficient, he's forty one percent chance to win.

You should have at least forty one percent Murad in DFS because he's not winning and not being optimal, at least not in any situation that I can think of. All right. Last fight. The closest line fight. The closest price fight. It's a main event. It's Alexander Volkanovski. It's Mazhar Evlov. Minus one ten. Volk minus one oh six is Evlov plus one ninety five for this fight to finish. Volk plus three thirty inside the distance. Evlov plus four fifty five.

Are you going to have a hundred percent of this fight is my first question. My second question is how does this fight play out? I mean, obviously you'd expect Evlov to put on the wrestling shoes and try and wrestle hard and right or right from the get go and hard for fifteen minutes if he can keep the pace. Not easy to do that against Volkanovski. How do you think he approaches this fight? Yeah. Are you going to have a hundred percent?

I want to be, I'm not going to make sure that I have a hundred percent. I'm not going to make a rule that I have a hundred percent, but when I'm hand-building, I really want to be clicking on one of these guys. And I'm okay making it one of the last ones I'm clicking on kind of, Can I even afford Volkanovski type of thing instead of starting my lineup there? But I just think that they both have such high ceilings. I mean, they're both great wrestlers.

You got to give Evloev the wrestling edge because he's never lost. He is younger, can fight at a big high pace. He's landed nine takedowns in his last fight, put up like a hundred and twenty something points. If Evloev wins, it has to be with wrestling and it's got to be lots of wrestling because Volkanovski could land his own takedowns, but he is the better striker. He is more dangerous. He's less durable, though.

So I think maybe just his durability could lead to an Evloev knockout, but that's just not the type of fighter Evloev... Evloev has never been... I think he's been to a decision in every single one of his fights in the UFC, if I'm not mistaken. I don't think he's ever finished or gotten a finish. So I just... I gotta...

I mean, it's really the eight point $2,000 in the $8,000 that makes you got to go all in on this fight just because they both have hundred and twenty point upside with their styles, with their paces and with five rounds to work with. I just don't really have a strong feeling on who's going to get the win. I really went back and forth and it was like a pick and fight when I was doing it.

It was minus one fifteen minus one oh five. So there was no help there. If there was a plus on either side, I would have picked that person. Minus one oh five is less than minus one fifteen. I But I really have no lean on this fight, man. I'm just looking forward to it. I think it's going to be a fun, high-paced, well-rounded UFC-level fight. I mean, championship level, sorry. Such a great fight. Really, really hard to bet, predict.

If I had to pick, gun to my head, I'm going evil of, uh, due to the six years younger and his more, he's more dominant if he does wrestle and have success that way. Again, confidence is very low. I think, um, If all of Evlov's wins, I feel like almost have to be optimal, whereas probably ninety three percent of Volk's wins are.

But there still is that seven percent possibility if he just does stuff, all the takedowns or wins three to in the in his rounds that he loses. He's on his back and then he wins three striking. So I think there's just past where. Volk can win, not be optimal, and that mainly comes down to he only scores a hundred, but the other mid-tier guys score one-oh-two, one-oh-three, whatever, since there's a lot of upside there.

Are you going to have any fight stacks of this one? Do you still think this is the better fight stacking fight than Jan and Murab? I mean, after that last build, I'm not sure if it is or not, but now that I think about it, I don't even know if I clicked on either one of these guys when I was doing that one. So, man, I don't know, dude. It's a hard card. I have no idea.

You can hit me up in Discord on Saturday or Friday night. I guess this is a ten a.m. Start. So you hit me up once my lineups are built and I'll know more. But my plan is to not stack any fight and just pick a side in this one. And I would imagine, dude, if I have a Volkanovski lineup that I really like, probably just going to duplicate it and throw in a blue. So that's probably my fault. Yeah. I don't, I don't hate that at all.

Again, I think a really hard DFS card, but really hard. It's good. Like I would not be surprised to see a unique shipper less than five dupes because yeah, you can actually make viable cases to fight stack either five round fight or both. And then you also have other fights on the card with a lot of them expected to finish with a lot of them.

Appropriately priced in the mid tier a lot of live dogs with upside it's just a great card all the way around so all of our content projectionsProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership breakdowns will be up tomorrow or not tomorrow we're doing the show Wednesday so we'll be up Friday like always again you can head on over to shipitnation.com click join the or see plans and pry or See plans and pricing.

And if you want all of the sports that we have to offer, monthly core one hundred starter ultimates, you do save money if you go to annual. As you can see here, twenty percent, twenty percent and ten percent. But if you're just looking for MMA content below less than a dollar a day for the month, twenty dollars more to add in SaberSim. And you can see it gets cheaper as well for annual.

Big Marley, final thoughts before we get on out of here. Yeah, man, I'm looking forward to this card. The last handful of cards we've had, I was done watching as soon as I knew I couldn't win the optimal. I was like, I don't give a shit if I even win, you know, fifty bucks on this card. I'm done spending my time on these. But this is a card I feel like I'm going to stick it out, even if I know I'm done early.

I think it's a really good card. Lots of fun matchups, lots of exciting matchups. But I also think it's a great DFS card, too. So. Good luck to you, Title. Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it. Oh, yeah. Great, great Saturday. College football. MLB Brewers in the World Series and MMA. Can't get better than that. And NBA, too. And NHL. We'd love to have you at the Nation again. So many sports. So to sweat, to join, we have experts in all those above.

So you can see all the sports and offerings we have right here. Shout out to the team behind the scenes for the awesome new Ship It Nation website. That's going to do it for us. Definitely do get in the Discord if you do join for Big Marley on Titletown. Good luck. Be safe. Peace.