UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

The Hernandez fight will be second. It doesn't matter for DFS. They're all independents.

To each other but let's go bottom to top on the stone like usual luis hernandez minus two twenty five again open minus four hundred cedric is dumas plus one eighty nine only or only prop under one and a half at minus two oh five at open minus one oh eight uh and then it's taken money since again this fight was just announced two hours ago so this line still can move a lot not as much money has come um the books haven't taken as much money on it.

And usually there are limits, especially when lines are just announced, they don't want to take a blood bath. So it's still pretty inefficient right now, but Hernandez eight, no five wins by submission three by knockout. He just looks like an all action guy and the fights the most likely to finish. So I definitely like him. And to be honest, I probably like Dumas more than I did against Gauld now for the simple fact of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ and because of Hernandez. If Hernandez is A.D.

. He's probably going to be top three owned on the card. And then in the most likely fight to finish, I always say this about Dumas. I always play him because he's a game theory, leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ play guy. In a fight expected to finish, but he always sucks. He always loses. Probably going to be the case again. He probably gets stomped.

But if Hernandez is at .A, I have more interest in Dumas than if Hernandez was .K because of the ownership on Hernandez and the leverage you get from Dumas. So under one and a half, minus .A plus. If Dumas wins, it's probably going to be a big score at pretty low ownership and leverage. So I like this fight a ton. I'll be playing a lot.

It just depends what $9,000 hernandez I still like him a bunch $8,500 hernandez I love him but I like dumas more than if hernandez was $9,000 because of the ownership so I hope that makes sense what are you doing in this one Yeah, I think it's my favorite fight on the card. This or the main event, they're going to definitely be my two favorite fights. With Hernandez taking this fight on two days notice, also never been to a decision.

I just think he's going to come out all gas, no brakes in this fight and try to kill Dumas. Yeah, I think he has the power to knock him out. I also think he has pretty good chokes as well. I would say he's the better wrestler of the two. My worry would be cardio on two days notice. But I think that could help out Dumas. If Hernandez gases, I think Dumas probably puts it on him and finishes Hernandez at some point.

And he's going to put up a big score as an underdog. But I would rather take my chances on the favorite getting that first round finish. I think Hernandez is better everywhere. I also like to root against Dumas. So let's go Hernandez first round. Brutal knockout. I like it, and I'm really, really excited just to see, again, the cop versus the felon and all that good stuff. That's going to be, that narrative is as good as it gets.

So I think it's a great spot for Hernandez in his UFC debut, and I think the UFC is even happier. I mean, if Mickey Gall, seven and seven Mickey Gall is a favorite against someone in twenty twenty six. Yeah, I think I think Luis Hernandez should put it on him and put up a big score.

But that being said, again, for Hernandez, Tournaments, I probably will be more over to the field to Dumas than Hernandez, unless Hernandez is $9,000 cause then that'd keep his ownership a little lower. And he still has as much upside as anyone on the slate. All right, let's get to the one-star fight. Not every day you see a minus-nine-twenty-five favorite as a one-star fight, but she's $9,800, is Yasmin Yirgoy taking on Vanessa Dimopoulos. Plus six-thirty-five, plus one-sixty for this fight to finish.

Yirgoy plus one-seventy-five inside the distance. Vanessa plus nine-twenty-five. The next highest price after Yasmin is all the way down to $9,300 in Rinya. Again, only twelve fights. I do think there's some live dogs on the card, so... I guess she's not the worst, worst play, but man, $9,800 is a pretty tough task. And then you look and she's like not even favored to finish the fight. Only a striker. A lot of things are going against her.

But I do expect ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ to be pretty low for that reason. Are you going to play any Yasmin? No, I'm just going to X this fight out. If I were to play it, though, I would rather play Oregi than Demopolis. I don't know that the field will be that way or not. I think I think so. Just priced out of my lineups, whereas $6,400 is super cheap and it's Demopoulos could maybe test Waragi's questionable chin.

She's also got a solid submission game, so maybe she could grab a neck or get an armbar or something on Waragi. But if Demopoulos doesn't get a finish, I just don't really see how she wins this fight. Waragi's probably going to piece her up on the feet. I also think Waragi would be the better... Wrestler of the two because Demopolis just doesn't wrestle. So I think Waragi can keep this fight standing. And I like her to get a TKO at some point.

It's just that $9,800. It's a little bit too much to pay on a card where I really don't care for too many underdogs. So I think the only reason to play Waragi would be because you like more underdogs than me or just to get different at $9,800. I think she will be low on this fight in general should be the lowest on fight on the card.

But I think I'm just going to exit out and play it as if there are eleven fights. If I told you Yasmin scored one hundred twenty nine DK points, how much would you have? I would definitely be a lot more interested. I would I'd have a lot of interest. I'd say more than like thirty percent on Yasmin if that was the case. Yeah.

The only reason I mentioned that, like in her win so far in the UFC, one of them scored one hundred twenty nine. If you do think she gets a TKO, Vanessa is hittable. She throws a lot of volume, like a third round, late second round where she just absolutely put it on her. Vanessa was tough. There is pass and she has done it where she scored that much. So I'm going to keep her in the pool for that reason and then cap her.

But I guess I also probably like dogs a little more than you. I'll just quickly go through. Hyoni's a live dog with upside. Bricek, a live dog with upside. This Albeck guy, he's going to wrestle. He's stand. If he wins, he's going to score. I think Edwards is live. Simone has upside. So I do think there is enough underdogs personally. On the slate where you can fit a Yasmin and the mid-tier is really strong.

So I'm going to keep her in the pool, but I do agree with Big Marley. I don't love her. And you can build like, yeah, any Yasmin team, drop down to Osmanelli, leave seven hundred, just as much upside right there. If not more, you could argue so. I don't like her much, but I think she's going to be thirteen percent owned or something. If that's the case, it's a way to get different. But I agree. I prefer Yasmin to Vanessa.

I don't like this fight, though, at all, really. Let's get to another fight. I'm not a fan of John Castaneda minus three seventy thinking on Alitang Haley plus two ninety eight. This is the second most likely to go the distance at minus two seventy five. Both guys plus four fifteen inside the distance. I mean, usually when both guys have the same inside the distance prop, give me the $2,200 savings and Alitang Haley.

And that is definitely where I'm at in this one. I don't love him. He doesn't do too much. Line movement has gone against them. Castaneda opened. Minus two hundred in this fight and is now minus three seventy. That's a lot of line movement for sure. I think he wins a decision in this fight bus. But if I had to pick someone, I mean, give me $2,200 savings and Alitang Haley maybe catches them.

Maybe he scores fifty five in a win and that's enough at $7,000. But do not like this fight really much at all. And maybe I just full fadeFadeTo fade a player is to leave him out of your lineups on purpose, usually because you expect him to be popular or you think he is a poor play.Fade with a reason, not a feeling. If you can't say why a popular player will disappoint, you're probably just giving away points.Full explanation ↗ it. I'm curious to hear your thoughts if you're going to have any Alitang Haley. No, I'm just not really going to play this fight either. This is my second least favorite fight on the card. I was saying, hey, Lee just doesn't do anything.

I mean, he's got a little bit of power in his punches. He can land a couple of takedowns, but he's not throwing any volume and he's not doing enough when he gets his takedowns either. He's not also a guy who can go out there and get you like eight takedowns in fifteen minutes. He just doesn't work hard enough. So even at $7,000, if somehow he won a decision, I don't even think he would ten X.

And if he doesn't get a first round knockout, I don't know that he buries you if it's a second or a third round because I don't think there will be any other real points leading up to it. So I would rather play Castaneda if I were to play this fight because he is the harder worker on the feet, the better wrestler. He'll go for the kill more as well.

I just agree that I think he wins the decision and doesn't even ten X a $9,200 price tag. I would imagine he scores around. Seventy five, eighty points and it's just not going to cut it. So I want to avoid those last two fights we talked about. And then I mean, if I was in a meeting, I would get a little bit of Castaneda. But even in me, I'm really not too interested in this fight.

I even thought about going one star and I'll just avoid these last two fights. I like all the others, though. I know mute donkey for sure. I was looking at something. I agree. I think we just talked about two of the worst fights on the card back to back. So I'll be hoping it's not optimal for either of them. Again, appreciate everyone hanging out. All we ask is the like button and the subscribe button. It helps us out a ton.

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Join the nation if you want to check out all of our packages. Top back over to the stone. Again, all of our content is posted on Friday and any updates needed. I let everyone know in Discord and is updated on the site. Another, actually I was going to say another women's fight, but there was a break in between the Yasmin fight to this one. But Aileen Perez taking on Norma Dumont. Perez minus one forty six.

Dumont plus one twenty five plus three twenty five for this fight to finish. Both girls plus five fifty inside the distance. Some line movement in this one. Aileen Perez was open minus two hundred. Two minutes later was minus one fifteen. And then from there she's taken a little money since Aileen. I'm really curious to hear your take on this because Aileen Perez, I mean, the takedowns show it on the stone. Four point nine takedowns per fifteen. She always has that kind of upside.

Dumont, though, you have the same amount of stars and this is a four star fight. So I'm all ears. I want to hear how you think it goes. Yeah. What you plan on doing for DFS? See, I like the fight, both sides of it. I always like Perez in DFS just because she is a high-paced wrestler. She is someone who can go out there and get you six to eight takedowns, rack up ten-plus minutes of control time, also be active with ground strikes too.

So I like the ceiling of Perez. I think she could score a hundred and ten-plus points at $8,300 and kind of break the slate. So I do lean her as my preferred play, but on a card where I don't care for too many underdogs, I'm also fine just going down to Dumont in the ones where I can't afford Perez or where I don't have Perez. I think Dumont's the better striker. I think she's got more knockout power. I think she would have higher volume.

I also think If Dumont beats Perez to the takedown, she could be fine and top control herself and rack up a couple takedowns, quite a bit of ground strikes, some ground control time. And I also give Dumont the cardio edge as well. If Perez wrestles early, starts to gas out, I think Dumont could pick it up and win a decision or maybe finish late.

But I just think as a mid-range fight, and Dumont probably won't get too much ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, I think I'm fine with both sides of it where I'd be targeting Perez, but kind of falling back on Dumont. So let me ask you this, though. Mid-range, in my opinion, is loaded. Vieira, Bricek, which fight do you like more? I'd say they're really close. So then you probably like this fight. You like this fight probably more than because ownership will be a lot lower.

What about, oh, yeah, I mean, Dumont, like, why I'm saying that, is this Hernandez-Dumont's fight in the mid-tier, highest expected to finish on the slate, it's going to be very owned. Vieira-Bricek, the second most likely fight to finish on the card, going to be so much higher owned. Harold Brenner, this fight's expected to finish at minus-one-twenty, going to be higher owned.

I will say Aileen Perez, like, might be individually higher than a couple of those fighters in that fight, but Dumont's probably going to be the lowest owned in that range by a wide margin. I mean, she's plus five fifty to finish taking on a wrestler so she could spend time on her back. And she's pretty low volume herself. I struggle with that personally. But for all the cases you made and she is going to probably be ten percent owned or something.

And if Eileen Perez is like twenty five, you get leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ that way. It is a short card. So I'm looking at ways to get different. We've seen crazier things happen. But, yeah, I just want people to know what Big Marley is saying, and he's saying that kind of in a vacuum how he likes this fight. Dumont's probably going to be the lowest owned in that mid-tier. So that is one way to get different if you want chalkier lineups.

Or way to get different in chalkier lineups, excuse me. Anything you want to say? What's up, Lone Wolf? Great to see you. Anything you want to say to Steven? Yeah, I mean, they can sell the team. I'd be fine with that. But, man, I feel like we're in for a rough year. Yeah, I mean, you guys just played the Chiefs close in Arrowhead, though, in OT. Two tough games, yeah. For sure. Yeah, yeah. All right, let's keep it rolling. Next fight on the card, Montel Jackson.

Anytime I see that name, I always think of my man Big Marley because he got the, what, ten-second knockout against Blackshear or something when you were all over him. Taking on Ricky Simone, plus-one-eighty-one, plus-one-twenty-five for this fight to finish. Montel, plus-one-seventy-five inside the distance. Simone, plus-five-fifty. I'll let you start. What do you see in this one? I'm going to be on Jackson again.

I've been high on both of these guys throughout their career, but I just think Simone is washed at this point. He's not the wrestler that he used to be. I love the pace that he used to fight at.

He would fight at a high pace while he was standing and then he would go for a a ton of takedowns throughout fifteen minutes and now he just doesn't do that anymore you'd be lucky to land two or three takedowns in any given fight but Jackson is a good wrestler and I think Simone's gonna have trouble wrestling even if he tries to in this fight and then if Simone's stuck standing I think Jackson's gonna piece him up I think he's way more dangerous I think he's more durable as well I would definitely worry about a decision from Jackson cause he's probably not gonna look to wrestle too much himself um But I think he's live for a knockout in any round.

And if it's round one, I think we'll be sitting pretty. And I don't think ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ will be too high either. I kind of think he gets lost in the sauce with, like, Rosas Jr. Being right below him. All the people below him should be fairly high-owned, I think. So I don't know. I don't think he'll be low-ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. But I think he'll be low enough where I want to get overweight to Jackson in this one.

And Simone, I'm just going to kind of let the field have him. Go after that old wrestling. I don't think it happens. Fatum, if I was MMAing I would just be low on him in general I agree with pretty much what you're saying. There's no doubt Montel is going to be pretty low owned. Again, with Rosas Jr., like you said, at $8,700. A couple others like Balado for two hundred less. I think he's going to be more popular than if you go up.

You'd want like a Luis Hernandez, depending if he's $9,000 or $8,500. This Osmanelli guy at $9,100. I do think Jackson gets lost a little bit in the sauce. And yeah, if that's the case. His is round one prop plus four hundred, which is pretty solid. Plus one seventy five to win inside the distance. Maybe he gets a takedown himself. Maybe it's a reversal of Simone gets takedowns. I think there's multiple paths.

You can see Jackson on the optimal as far as Ricky Simone. I agree with you. But the thing is, I want to know what his ownership's going to be. Like, usually Ricky Simone's always high-owned. But because Moneyline's going against him, I do think there is some intriguing dogs on this slate. Edwards... Barcelos is definitely going to be high on and then he stands. So Simone might come in like third or fourth highest in terms of dogs. If he wins though, he's going to score more than likely.

I think, I mean, he's not out striking Montel Jackson. So it's going to be come through the wrestling. So when he wins more than likely, he's probably optimal. So for that, Reason I think I'm just going to have to eat somewhat of the ownership, but I do agree in a vacuum. His durability I'm more concerned about. He can't wrestle for fifteen minutes like he used to. The cardio I'm not as sold on as he used to be.

He's an age thirty three year old for sure. And I think Montel knocks him out at some point. So Montel is my preferred play. And you get some leverage on the Jackson side as well. All right, let's get to the closest lined and price fight on the card. Josiah Harrell minus one twenty four. Elvis Brenner plus one oh six minus one twenty for this fight to finish. Both guys plus two thirty five inside the distance. Some line movement in this one.

It was Harrell opening minus two hundred and then two minutes later he was minus one twelve. And the line hasn't moved too much from there. If anyone didn't see Harrell's last fight. I don't even know if you want to go watch it out. I'm glad he's still alive or watch it. I'm glad he's still alive, but that ref should be absolutely kicked into the sun for the punishment he allowed Harold to take. But I think this is a good scrap.

It's just, if it doesn't finish, I'm worried it's not going to be optimal, but, um, Yeah, I think these are two pretty good fighters and very well-rounded fighters. I think these guys can have success, both of them, wherever the fight goes. I just hope that each other's talent doesn't mitigate each other and then just make it a boring, on-the-feet, tit-for-tat fight where they just don't score. How do you see this fight going?

Yeah, I mean, this is the one I'm just really not sure on. I think it's going to be a close fight. I would say that I'm just really torn on picking a winner in this one. I think it could go all sorts of ways where Josiah is probably the more athletic guy, the better wrestler. He's got mean ground and pound. But Brenner's just more experienced. I think he's the better striker.

I think the longer the fight goes on, Brenner's probably a little bit better everywhere maybe. So maybe early it goes Josiah late Brenner, but I don't man. I just don't feel good either way, but it is right there in the mid range. So I got it as threes all the way around. I'm fine using it. I'm fine not using it. I'm fine using Josiah. I'm fine using that same lineup and just dropping down. To Brenner instead.

I just don't know how this fight plays out. I don't know how it scores. I think there's a wide range from the winner scoring sixty to one hundred on either side of this one. So I'm interested, but I'm also not interested. And I would say if I'm hand building a couple of lineups, I'd probably try to avoid it. But if I'm in my meeting, I'm just going to let it ride however it goes.

You like this fight or you like the Dumont Perez fight more than this fight? Yeah, definitely. You like Dumont individually more than both of these fighters? No, I'd say I'd go in. It'd be Perez and then all three of the other ones. So I would feel like. On this card, any Perez lineup you could definitely have is Dumont, so I would almost want four lineups, one with Perez, one with each of these guys, and one with Dumont as well.

I think I'll just keep a tighter core on this card rather than spreading it out with Simone, the Demopulus fight, the Castaneda fight. I think I have enough fades where I can make combinations like that. Yeah, I think that's a really important thing you just said. Like, it's hard for me to do that stuff because my pool is always wider. But when you are fading, like you said, Demopolis, Uruguay, Castaneda, Alitang, Haley, Ricky Simone.

I mean, he just had half the fades to start this card. When you're doing that, it is a lot easier to then be very narrow and just be like, yeah, I'm going to build a core five team, then fade. Perez is in one, Dumont's in one, Harrell's in one, Brenner's in one.

Now, do know when you do that and your core people that you aren't fading lose, well, you're probably GG most of the time for the night because you're so concentrated on such a narrow path. Again, I diversify more in this volatile sport, but when you do get things right, you have a lot better chance to have a lot of lineups competing for the top. And then you can eliminate a lot of dupes.

If any team can beat Perez and then you go Dumont on that team or even Brenner, that's going to eliminate quite a few because you're forcing leaving money, you're playing a dog, all of that good stuff. I don't hate it. Big Marley and I, I mean, we did an education video. If you haven't checked it out, more education, MMA, an hour and a half, two hours talking and answering questions. We do play the sport differently. There's no doubt about that.

And that's why I love talking to him on this show. All right, let's keep it rolling. Next fight. And I agree with you. Threes all the way around is how I'd have it. Not a fight I'm forcing. It's slightly favored to finish. I respect both guys. Not all finishes probably optimal, but if they do finish at ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, I would want to be overweight.

But yeah, that Hernandez-Dumas fight in the mid-tier, the Bricek-Viera fight, I do like more for sure in a vacuum. Next fight on the card, Rodolfo Bellato, minus-one-eighty-two. Christian Edwards, plus-one-fifty-four. Minus-one-fifty for this fight to finish. Bellato, plus-one-forty inside the distance. Edwards, plus-three-hundred. We're going to start getting into a couple fights. I mean, I guess I'll tip my hand. This fight, Vieira fight, Rosas Jr. Fight. I think it's all close enough, and I think the dog... Actually, I shouldn't say Vieira fight.

I do have a take in that one, but... I think it's a close enough fight and the ceiling on both guys are similar enough where I can just plug in the blotto, take blotto out, go Edwards and leave $1,000. Or if I want to leave money, I can leave seven hundred in lineups a lot easier when I play Edwards than blotto. I'm going to be all in on the main event. Spoiler alert.

I'm going to have a lot of that Hernandez-Dumas fight. Spoiler alert. When I'm eating a lot of chalk, how do I get different? I think fights like this, take Blotto out, go Edwards, and you're leaving $1,000 without sacrificing much upside. That is something I'm going to be doing on this card. So just naturally, game theory. I think this is more of a game theory than I know fights card for me.

When I'm trying to eliminate dupes, this is one of the fights that sit out to me where I can leave money pretty confidently without giving up much upside. So I'll let you talk about the actual fight, the styles, and then how you see it going down. Yeah, I think it's a good fight to target. I could see either side getting finished.

With Edwards, I think just the best thing I saw about him was when he got takedowns, he was pretty nasty with his ground and pound. I think if he could get Bellato down, he could finish him with a knockout. But I just didn't really love anything else about his game. I didn't love his overall wrestling. I didn't like his striking. I think he is a low volume kind of guy when it is on the feet.

So I like Bellotto in all aspects of this fight. I think he would be the more dangerous finisher on the feet. I think he's better with submissions. He's more experienced as well. So I definitely prefer Bellotto of the two. He's one of my favorites. Favorite favorites on the card just because he's $8,600 and I think he could win by any method.

And I also think if I had to bet this fight, I would rather take the Bellato side as well. So he is my preferred play. I'll be overweight to Bellato, but I would rather have Edwards kind of as a hedge. But I'd rather have him over like Ricky Simone. For sure. Agree with that. I think Edwards is one of the best value plays. $7,600 and below on the slate. Plus three hundred is good.

Again, I'm fine with a lot of plus one forty inside the distance as well. Do you see either shooting for takedowns early? Do you think it mainly stays on the feet? Do you have any read there? I feel like Edwards should try to look for takedowns, but I don't know. Maybe I didn't see enough of his fights, but I just wasn't impressed with what I what I saw on him. I don't even know why he got the call up to the UFC, to be honest.

Fair enough. Just looking at props, because usually when I'm like, is someone going to wrestle, I do like to look at submission prop. Submission's definitely in favor of Bellotto. Plus . For DFS, if it does get to the third round or decision, more than likely bust. But another reason why I prefer Edwards to Bellotto due to him being $1,000 cheaper. All right, next fight on the card, we got Rinyat Nakamura, second biggest favorite at minus-thirty-five. Taking on Brady Heastand, plus-thirty-nine, minus-one-fifty for this fight to finish.

Nakamura, plus-one-fifteen inside the distance. Heastand, plus-three-eighty-five. Nakamura opened minus-five-hundred in this fight. Twenty minutes later, eighteen minutes later, was minus-three-twenty-five. And then, slowly but surely this week, Nakamura has taken some money...

After I mean I think he stands a phenomenal play if he stands wins this fight I I don't see how he's not optimal he pushes the pace he wrestles his in or his money lines plus and his inside the distance prop is plus So I think on a card, I want to try and leave a little bit of money. And man, I'm just seeing your stars and you are completely against it. When he Stan wins, I think he's optimal. So that's my only breakdown there.

Do I think he beats Nakamura? No, I think Nakamura is probably better everywhere. If he Stan wins, though, he's going to wrestle and he's going to have success wrestling. Can the American wrestler beat the Japanese wrestler?

Uh insane wrestler growing up more than likely not with that being said though nakamura has been a little disappointing to me in the UFC this far and I actually thought the line would be wider just because nakamura has taken he's gotten so much respect from the markets ever since he came into the UFC um but yeah minus three thirty five he was on Tuesday now he's minus three eighty five so the line is starting to move his way which makes me like he stand a little less He's still my preferred play, though.

I'll let you talk about it, but how does he score one ten plus to be optimal in this matchup? I think he could knock out he stand in the first round. I also think he could wrestle a lot just because of he stands aggressive wrestling, grappling type of style. I think if he stand forces it, Nakamura could just be the more powerful, better wrestler and he gets the takedowns instead.

I also think he stand might start accepting takedowns if it's not going his way on the feet. I think he might try to work his submission game on the ground. But yeah, I agree. If he stand does win, I think he would score well. I think he could tire out Nakamura in a high pace type of fight, maybe get a choke at some point. But I just think skill wise, we haven't seen him in two years.

I don't even know what to expect from this guy. But skill wise, I just think Nakamura is better everywhere. And the best thing about he stand would be his wrestling. And I don't think he has any wrestling edge in this fight. So that's why I don't really like him. I might move it to a four-star Nakamura, two-star high stand, but I'm really not trying to go under $7,100 on this card.

And I just think Nakamura is not a clear win, but a fairly clear win on this card. So he's my preferred play. If I can afford $9,300, I'll get I'll get a handful of Nakamura's. Yeah, I'm going to play some Nakamura too, mainly just because of the pace that he stand pushes. He's going to force Nakamura to do something, which is always what we want. But just like using the odds. All right, plus three, ten, plus three, oh, nine is twenty four point four percent.

That's he stands money line. He stands not going to be close to twenty four percent ownedOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. If I think almost all of he stands wins are optimal. Heck, I mean, we talked about I talked about freaking tied to Evas. I was kind of kicking myself kind of not last week tied to Evas and Ozzie Diaz. And I do think they were sharp plays. Sean Sheriff was in that exact same boat.

And again, it's I never play those plays so I can't be mad but if you're looking at odds and everything everyone has a chance I just got bouncing survivor a lot of my teams with the buccaneers the chargers and all this you parlay those big underdogs things happen people win MMA plus three oh nine is twenty four point four percent if he if you trust the odds and he wins it that much and I think ninety five percent of his wins are optimal I just have to have about twenty percent personally so That's how I'm looking at it.

He's staying my preferred play. I need dogs. And just say this fight goes the distance and is somewhat competitive. He's saying can score forty five in a loss, fifty in a loss and then still be optimal. And then you can jam in other studs above. So I like this fight quite a bit. He's saying is my preferred play for the savings. But I will have some Nakamura as well. All right, we're getting to two fights in a row that are the tough championships.

So the winner will get a ticket into the UFC. But that is why you see nothing for the significant strikes per minute. And we still don't even have a reach on the two guys after. But Tina Black and Melissa Amaya. We got black at minus two twenty Amaya plus one eighty five. And like if you're looking at fight odds, it's Machado da Silva. It's there's weird names all over the place. FanDuel has Machado. This one has black. DraftKings does.

You guys know who we're talking about, though. Again, minus two twenty black plus one eighty five Amaya plus two hundred for this fight to finish. Black plus three hundred inside the distance. Amaya plus five fifty. One of my least favorite fights on the card. I didn't plan on really getting any. I said dogger pass because we might need some dogs at $7,300. Didn't plan on playing black unless you talk me into something.

No, I actually just moved my stars on this to two stars on black and four to Amaya. Same with the Nakamura. I did four and two on that one. But I just think this being the tough finale fight, it could be fought at a high pace. Um, both of them are okay. Strikers. I think they're fine on the feet, but Tina black is the better striker. Uh, she looks faster, more dangerous and she throws punches in combo.

So I think she could put up more volume in a Um, Amaya though, I think she, uh, she's better with kicks. I think she is the better submission grappler of the two. So she should be the one looking to grapple. And if she wins, I think she would score well. Whereas if black wins, it's going to be tougher to compete with the optimal lineup. So that's, That's why I prefer Amaya.

I think she probably has more ways to win this fight, but Black just looks like the better overall prospect, and I think she can keep this fight standing long enough to where she wins, too, maybe all three rounds on the feet. Amaya's an interesting dog at $7,300 because I think she is well-rounded. She's never lost before, and if she does look for takedowns, she's going to score well and win. Okay. I like it. Dogger pass for me. Dogger pass for you.

You said you changed this to two stars, four stars? Yep. Yep. Okay. I like it. I'm on the same page. Really tough for me to get to any black at $8,900. Let's get to the second of two tough fights. Again, we appreciate everyone hanging out. We just we're not wasting time. We never do. You guys tune into these shows. Everyone's time is valuable. So we break each fight down how we see it, whether it takes forty five minutes, hour fifteen.

You name it. Hold on. Let me see what Lather said. UFC just found out Dumont versus Hernandez is on the main card. Dumont versus Hernandez. Oh, so they're saying Hernandez Dumas is on the main card. Norma versus Eileen is the co-main event? No chance. Interesting. What? What? Why would Norma Dumont, Aileen Perez go from the ninth to the co-main events and Rinya Rodolfo are on the prelims? Okay. Yeah. I mean, thankfully it means nothing for DFS.

Again, all fights are independent from each other. I definitely agree with putting Luis Hernandez Dumas on the main card. I think that is not probably the most hyped up fight for the card, but to put Dumont, Aileen Perez in the co-main events is one of the, More head-scratching things I've seen. Trying to see Perez shake that ass on Paramount. I guess. I mean, shit. Yeah, again, it doesn't matter for the DFS. Appreciate that, though. Interesting move, in my opinion, for the Perez fight.

But, yeah, Hernandez-Dumas, I would have put that to the co-main event. Everyone wants to see the cop beat up the felon. Unless maybe my teams might want the felon, so we'll see. All right, three fights left. Again, the second of two tough fights. I'm definitely going to butcher this name. Mohamedeli Osmanli. Let's go with that. Mohamedeli Osmanli. If I say it wrong, definitely say it how you say it. Thinking on Ilembek Akhlebek. We got, oh my gosh, Osmanelli minus two seventy nine.

I'll back plus two thirty one minus one sixty for this fight to finish. Osmanelli minus one twenty inside the distance. I'll back plus six hundred. Yeah, that's enough pronouncing these guys names. So you guys you can take this fight over and then I'll add anything after. Yeah, I've been calling this guy like Ulu in my head because Fight Odds has it that way. But the other guy is like Muhammad Ali is what it sounds like, his first name. So that makes me like him.

And he is a really good striker, I think. I think he could be the goods. He's only twenty two years old and he looks like a pretty dangerous striker. He's fast and he's also got a pretty good grappling game because he is used to people taking him down. So he's got some good chokes. He's got a good get up game and he's going to need that in this one because Akla Beck is just a wrestler grappler when it's on the feet.

He's pretty much doing nothing, uh, but he's going to be shooting for single legs and trying to get it up against the cage and then shoot for a double. Um, if he gets it, I think he probably could win all three rounds with wrestling.

He's also alive for a submission at some point on the ground, but if he wins, it's going to have to come through multiple takedowns and lots of ground control time and on tough, um, Cormier was worried about the entire team having to face this guy and his wrestling during the draft pick. So I don't know if that's anything to worry about. But he drafted somebody else specifically to fight this guy because of the wrestling.

And Osmanli might just have some trouble just facing takedowns the entire fifteen minutes and this being a snoozefest. But at the same time, this Aklebek guy cannot strike with us manly. If he's stuck on the feet, I think at some point he's going to get knocked out. And it could be in the first round if he's not landing his first takedown. So I am picking him to get the knockout. That's just the only way that this fight will be exciting.

And if the other guy wins, hopefully I have enough DFS lineups to where it makes it exciting sweat-wise.

Agree with all of that osmanelli opened minus four hundred uh less than an hour later about thirty minutes later was minus two seventy five and the line hasn't really moved from there this fight opened minus one fifty to finish now minus one sixty osmanelli one of the best inside the distant props on the slate plus one fifteen now minus one twenty So yeah, all the finishing upside on the Osmanelli side. He's also plus-two-fifty by sub, open plus-three-seventy-five.

And I do think a lot of that is because Albeck's going to want to wrestle. Like you mentioned, he has to wrestle in this one, which does bring the interest with him. When he wins, he should score because of that. And I think Osmanelli's relatively popular, so you get some leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ off of him as well. So that makes Albeck a great play. But Osmanelli's just in a vacuum. Not many are expected to finish.

On this card I think two maybe to be exact hernandez will probably be expected to finish um but yeah I mean when he wins maybe it's reversals maybe it's takedowns maybe it's control time but he's definitely has advantage on the feet for multiple knockdown upsides so I just think this is a phenomenal fight to target on both sides and ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ should be relatively low on albic with leverage and the wrestling style you want so I like it um Yep, what's up, David?

Yep, we did see Mickey Gall as with Drew. So we talked about the Luis Hernandez-Dumas fight. Luis Hernandez is in for Mickey Gall. So yeah, just rewind. We're going to be done relatively soon. Go to the beginning. And we talked about that. Peyton Dumas and all lineups say that's a profitable strategy, or at least has been most of the time. All right, two fights left.

What was the co-main event might not be anymore, if it is true what the bout order said. But Rodolfo Vieira, minus-one-fifty-seven. Robert Bricek, plus-one-thirty-four. This fight is minus-two-fifty to finish.

Uh we have viera plus one forty and said the distance breechak plus one seventy so this was the fight that I mentioned at first and I was like all right I can easily go uh any breechak team or any beer team drop down to breechak and leave six hundred which is true and I will do on some teams But the reason that I'm not picking him and the reason I'm still going to want more Vieira, I think, Vieira opened plus-one-seventy-seven. What a bad opener.

Two minutes later, minus-one-ten. And the money has just kept coming on Vieira. We can see on Tuesday. I guess I'm from Tuesday to now it hasn't moved much, but... The line has not stopped moving against the Bricek side. The grappler in Vieira versus the striker in Bricek. I think the grappler in Vieira wins out in this one. I like the line movement. But again, with all that being said, I do like Bricek. It's the second most likely fight to finish on the card.

And when he wins, he should score pretty well. He's also $7,800 and the ability to leave six hundred plus pretty easily just dropping down from Vieira. So I like this fight quite a bit. Vieira is my preferred play, but not by much, I don't think, due to the pricing. Yeah, I definitely like this fight, but I think it's really reliant on a finish for either side to score well.

If this goes to a decision, I just wouldn't feel good about either guy being on the optimal lineup. Vieira just doesn't...

Wrestle enough or long enough to score well in a decision he's also not a great striker to where he's going to be throwing volume or landing many knockdowns so I think Vieira is submission or bust and then Breachick he's not a really high volume striker either like if we're turning knockouts off I think Vieira could hang with them for fifteen minutes and we wouldn't even really know who's winning that striking match I think it would it would probably be towards Breachick But if he's not getting a knockout, he's just not high volume enough either.

He's going to need multiple knockdowns to score well. So I think he needs to knock out Vieira in the first or second round. Maybe third could be fine too, but I would imagine if it goes to the third, he could have spent the first round on his back for four minutes and done absolutely nothing. Um, so my preferred play is Vieira. I think Vieira can strike with Breachick, but Breachick can't grapple with Vieira.

Uh, if Vieira gets a takedown in the first round while he's fresh, I just feel like he gets like a head and arm choke and puts this guy away. So I like Vieira. I'll be overweight to him, probably around field on Breachick just so I don't get too burned. Uh, but I'd say it's closer to a three star than a five star just because of the whole, if, if they don't get a finish, they probably don't score one. Okay.

Yeah, I mean, again, you only have so many fights to pick from on this one, and it's minus two-fifty to finish the second most likely on the card. So I'm going to be forced into playing it, but if you do fade, you will get a little leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. Any Vieira team, if you're dropping to Harrell, to Brenner, to Norma Dumont, that is definitely a way you can get different on this card. All right. Main event time.

Appreciate it again, everyone hanging out with us, watching live and watching on playback. It's not the best card on paper, but, hey, we have fights on our screen on Saturday with college football, with NFL the next day. It's the best time of the year. You will absolutely hear no complaints.

From me good main events Raul Rosas Jr plus one or minus one sixty Ioni Barcelos plus one thirty six minus one thirty for this fight to finish Rosas plus one forty inside the distance Barcelos plus three eighty five all right I need you have more stars on Barcelos I want you to break down this fight but I I need to hear how this fight busts and isn't optimal outside of nut kicks and and eye pokes or whatever because I plan on having a hundred percent I'm struggling to see how it's not optimal Yeah, I mean, I'm going to have a hundred percent as well.

But the way it's not optimal is Rosas wrestles like crazy for first two rounds dominates. And then Barcelos finishes them after that and just doesn't score enough. I think it would be a Barcelos. When that doesn't end up on the optimal lineup. If Rosas Jr. Wins, I expect a big-time score and really the highest ceiling on the entire slate because he's going to have to wrestle. He's going to have to grapple and look for submissions.

The whole fight has to take place on the ground for him to win. So if that's the case, he's definitely going to score well. I think he's live to do that, but, man, I don't know that I would favor him this much over a guy like Barcelos, man. Barcelos, really good grappler himself. Way more experienced, beat really good competition. I think he's the full package. He's just thirty nine years old now.

And if he can keep this fight standing, I think he's going to end up knocking out Rosas at some point. Fifteen minutes or twenty five minutes is probably just too long for Rosas to be able to stand. And strike with Barcelos. So I just think it's going to be a Barcelos finish at some point, but he could have to deal with a lot of adversity early in this fight when Rosas is wrestling heavy.

So, uh, I'm going to make sure I was actually building lineups on SaberSim earlier. And, uh, I had like forty or something that that I liked. And then I was like, wait a minute, let me make sure that this fight is in there. So I went through all forty and I X'd out anything that didn't that had this fight excluded from it. So I think I will just be a hundred percent all in.

I also don't think I'm going to have forty lineups. I'll probably be trying to get closer to.

To twenty but I'll be overweight to Barcelos very overweight I think I might double the field on Barcelos and I'll be low on Rosas just any lineups that I don't have Barcelos in Rosas will be there for sure but I would imagine if I'm playing Rosas I'm probably going to have to play that Aklebek guy just because Aklebek, Keystand, Edward you didn't like Keystand as much you were fine with Amaya so it's forcing me to be like all in on Barcelos Yeah, and again, I do think ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ will be relatively similar on both these guys, which might surprise you at first, but it comes down to, yeah, Barcelos, twelve hundred cheaper, still in a good fight to target at minus one forty with only twelve fights with dogs relatively tough.

I'm thinking. And I do agree with you. Like if Rosas Jr. Just wrestle fucks him the first two rounds and Barcelo catches him in the third and scores fifty five, like that's not going to be it enough. But man, it feels like it really have to be a quick finish in the third or like he would really have to do nothing at $7,500. Even if he scores seventy eight, more than likely that fight's going to be optimal. But I do agree with you.

It has to be a Barcelos win. It doesn't have to be. Nothing has to happen. But more than likely, Barcelos' win is how this fight busts. Because Rosas Jr., I mean, he's going to wrestle. He's going to have to wrestle early and often. And his style is so good for DraftKings. Averages over six takedowns per fifteen minutes. So, I'm thinking somewhere around sixty-five, thirty-five, Barcelos in this one. When Rosas wins, he's the favorite, probably optimal.

So I definitely want some there, but I can leave twelve hundred dollars or it's a lot easier to leave six hundred, seven hundred, eight hundred when I am playing Barcelos over Rosas Jr. So that is the reason I'm on the dog in this one. Again, he can grapple. He can strike. We'll have the striking advantage. Also, line movement. Rosas opened minus two ten. Now all the way down to minus one sixty. Money has continued to come against him. So I'm going to follow the line movement.

I'm going to go with the cheaper fighter. It's a lot easier to leave money with him. And I'm also going Hione. But that being said, though, Raul Rosas Jr., when he wins, probably going to be optimal. So I plan on having a hundred percent of this fight, which again, is the reason why I mentioned leaving $1,000 with Edwards, the interest in he stand easier to leave money. Amaya, Albeck, there is dogs I'm going to play on this card.

I definitely will not be stacking the main event personally. That's all I got. Twelve fights at the Apex five PM Eastern on Saturday. Any final thoughts from you, Big Marley? Now, man, hopefully it's a good DFS card. Hopefully you continue all your DFS luck. You can roll over your weekend success over here to these fights, but good luck to you, title. Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it. Let's ship it. Indeed.

Again, we'd love to have you over at the nation Ship It Nation.com to get in. I'll just share it real quick. Again, bottom left, join the nation. I would click this and then you can see all of our different packages, five dollars for five days for nineteen dollars with SaberSim and the Discord. I think it's the best deal. You can access six sports within those five days. If you just want MMA though, far right.

Single sport MMA, you can get in twenty nine dollars a month, just twenty dollars more for SaberSim. SaberSim doesn't even offer single sport packages as well. So this is just unique to us. And then it only gets cheaper online. If you go to the annual, again, MMA is pretty much every single week, as you guys know.

Oh, the last thing I did want to mention, we are going to change the normal time of this show from eight forty five Eastern on Thursdays to five Eastern on Thursdays. But again, there's As you guys know, a lot of wiggle room, many watch majority watch on playback by a wide margin. Sometimes we do Wednesday night, usually Thursday though, but we're going to put the calendar, the concrete time at five Eastern. And then we'll, we'll let everyone know in Discord.

If it does change, you can also always see shows. Even if you're not a member shows, you can see what time all of our shows are. Each and every day. And definitely do subscribe to the YouTube channel because you'll get notified when we go live as well. That's going to do it for us. Always good talking with you, Big Marley. Good luck tonight in the NFL streets. Good luck this weekend in the MMA and NFL streets as well. And that goes for everybody out there.

Hit that like. Hit that subscribe on the way out. That's going to do it for us. For Big Marley, I'm Titletown. Good luck. Be safe. Peace.