UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

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For a hundred forty nine dollars a month with DFS Mastermind again this gets you all the sports projections ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ starter does get you more uh four hundred more lineups to build gets you contest flashback to review what the pros are doing gets you another set of ownership if you are just playing MMA though single sport far right MMA you can get in for twenty nine dollars a month and just twenty dollars more with SaberSim, if you are looking for that.

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How many fights does Strickland have left on his contract? I actually don't know that answer. I saw I see everything that's going on right now, but I don't know the answer. Do you know, Big Marley? No, no idea. Yeah, interesting stuff, though, for sure. But, I mean, yeah, eventually maybe the UFC will have to pay their fighters a little better. Otherwise, they'll just maybe be losing some. But I don't really think the UFC cares.

Like, enough people want to fight in the greatest promotion, at least the biggest promotion. And, yeah, they have great fights every single week. So, it'll be interesting to see how that all goes down. But we're not worried about that. Again, twelve fights. Again, I've talked about my broad slate. A very good main event that's hard to ignore. Clash of Styles, minus one ninety to finish.

Four one two three four fights minus four hundred or greater to finish those are definitely some good fights to target no under or no favorite above minus three fifty on this card right now as well rj harris is minus three fifty he's the biggest favorite currently But because I say in twelve fights is just OK, the skill level on this card, not great. But eight of the twelve expected to finish means violence.

No favorite above minus three fifty means we could see plenty of dogs barking on this card, which means you can leave money. And that is one way I'm going to approach this card is leaving some money. And then I'll say my other favorite way to go about it in a little bit. But any broad slate for you before we go fight by fight? No, I know I'm going to be probably all in on that main event.

I got some other five stars as well, but I think the main event is the only all in for me. And then there's a handful of fights on this card I don't even like. So I just kind of think that might lead to a lot of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ being condensed into what I do like. And I'm going to have to figure out ways to get different. Yeah, I do think it's going to be a pretty chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ card, a condensed card.

Again, you can find all of our ownership up on the site tomorrow. But let's get right into it. Bottom to top, as always, we're going to start with the most likely fight to go the distance on the card in the mid-tier. Melissa Gatto, minus-one-fifteen. Ernesta Carascate, minus-one-oh-one. Plus-two-fifty for this fight to finish. Gato plus three thirty five inside the distance. Kara Scott a plus six fifty. I mean, I'll throw it to you right away. Most likely fight to go the distance.

A mid tier fight. Pretty much a coin flip fight. You're parlaying a lot of things in this one to be optimal, but both will be low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. Any case you can make for either girl. So my case is ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ only. Don't really like the fight at all. I think that Kara Cotty is the. Um, better, higher volume striker, really just better because of her pace on the feet. Gato has some power. She's a decent striker.

I'd say she's more well-rounded, but the biggest advantage in this fight would be Gato's ground game. If she could get it there or if she's even willing to get it there. I don't even know if I trust her at this point. But when I did this fight, she was minus one sixty two. Now it's a pick them fight. So I think all the ownership.

I don't really think there's going to be ownership on this fight, but I think it would be all on the Kara Katie side. And I do think she's live to win the fight score close to ten X win with some decent volume on the feet. But if anyone's going to win this fight in the first round, I think it would be Gato, and I think the ownership won't be there because the line's moving against her. She's getting up there. I mean, well, she's only three years.

I would have thought she was older than thirty, to be honest, but she seems like she's getting up there in age. She just doesn't seem like she's as willing to grapple as I would like her to be. But she is a really good grappler. I think if she was willing to grapple, she could rack up, you know, seven plus minutes of control time, multiple takedowns, score decent in a decision. But she has the most, in my opinion, round one equity.

So if I was going to use this fight, it's going to be Gato. I agree with that. I do not want to really use this fight, but if I do, and I'm going to keep Gato in the pool, she is my preferred play for sure. She's plus three fifty or plus three thirty five inside the distance where Karis Gay Day is plus six fifty.

And again, I know Karis Gay Day is $7,900, but as a primary striker and again, no favorite is above minus three fifty on this card. Dogs will be barking. I think there are a lot of more higher upside dogs and $7,900 isn't even a cheap price tag. It's kind of right by the Leroy Duncan, Brendan Allen, Francisco Prado I like more. But for Gato, like she should try and wrestle in this fight.

She's a much better grappler, better inside the distance prop. And yeah, plus three thirty five to finish. Twenty three percent, that is. I think she's going to probably be somewhere around like the fifteen percent mark. So when her inside the distance is higher than her distance. Her ownership, and then you bring in the consideration that she might wrestle. I think she's a fine pivot in the mid-tier, but one of the worst fights to target on the card.

Gato or pass for me, more likely I'm going to pass. All right, let's get to probably the other worst fight on the card. This is one of the most likely to go the distance also. Right in the mid-tier, another woman's fight. Elise Pereira, minus-one-forty. Daria Zelenikova, plus-one-twenty. This fight is plus-one-fifty to finish. Pereira, plus-two-eighty inside the distance. Zelenikova, plus-four-ten. I'm not playing this fight. I think Gato's my favorite.

If I had to rank all four of these fighters, Gato would be the one I'd have the most interest in, and I still don't love it. I mean, Pereira is plus-two-eighty inside the distance, which isn't crazy, but over with two-and-a-half in this fight, minus-two-hundred. Like, man, if this fight's going to go over two and a half, minus two hundred, neither of these girls are getting there. They don't wrestle. They just strike. $8,400, $7,800.

Again, eight of the twelve fights are expected to finish on the card. This is right by that main event. I'm not doing it. Game theory only, ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ only. Again, I'll use Gato for that. And I have some other spicy stuff that we'll get to a little later. So I'm out on this fight. I think we have two of the worst fights to start off the card. What do you think? Yeah, same thing. Same thing, but opposite, I guess. I really don't want to target this fight.

I think Pereira is the one with the round one equity. She is the fighter with more power, the better athlete of the two. But I don't think she's going to be a high volume striker. I really don't look or I don't think she looks for takedowns at all. If either of the two were to look for takedowns, I think it would be Zalesnikova. I also like Zalesnikova to be the overall minute winner over fifteen minutes because I expect a striking match here.

And if she's going to be the more likely wrestler, I think that would help her as well. So I want to fade the round one equity in Pereira. The line's been moving in her favor. I would rather take the point fighter in Zalesnikova, the more experienced fighter of the two. If she doesn't get knocked out or knocked down, I think she's just going to win minutes in this one.

And if she does knock in, like let's say she gets like two or three takedowns, I think she would score over ten X. If there's no takedowns in the entire fight, I think it would be really tough for her to score over ten X. But she took down – she just fought last week Perez – The twerker girl. She took down the twerker girl. Eileen Perez. Eileen Perez, yeah. She took her down when they fought.

So I think if she could take down Perez, there's going to be no problems taking down Pereira if she wanted to go that route. And I think it would be smart to go that route against an inexperienced fighter. So I don't know. I'm kind of dogger pass on this one with pass being the best option. Yeah, man, I would be surprised if she wrestled. But, yeah, you do make a solid point there.

So, if you had to rank these girls in these first four fights, how would you have your ranking? So, for me, I'm going to go Gato, Zalesnikova, Pereira, Kara Katie. All right. I'm going Gato. And then it's tough. The other three is fades. Yeah.

Gato zelenikova pereira carascade I guess um but yeah I these first four fights are these first four fighters the first two fights are are not good for DFS but with that being said if any of them are optimal you have a lot better chance at lower dupes than if both these fights bust because ownership will be low on all four You're the line movement guy.

You don't really care that Karakati is now like damn near the favorite when she was plus one thirty six when I was doing it. I mean, she's plus six fifty inside the distance. Like I even if she wins like I at $7,900, I think we need ninety plus this week. Eight of these twelve fights are expected to finish, and I think these dogs will be barking. So, you know, we're going to get in this next fight, and I'll just say my thing right now.

My big stance this week is GM three, Ribeiro, Allen, Frye. I want to be overweight on all three. The fights are minus four hundred to finish, minus six fifty to finish, minus five fifty to finish. If you parlay Julius Walker, Felipe Franco, and RJ Harris, those three favorites, it's plus-one-twenty-two on DraftKings. So what DraftKings is saying, one of them is going to lose more times than not. And if any of them lose, I think their opponents will score very well and be optimal.

So I'm on the Stars and ScrubsStars and ScrubsStars and scrubs is a DFS lineup structure where you spend heavily on several expensive players and fill other roster spots with low-salary players. The cheap players free up salary for the stars; they are not necessarily bad players.Compare the points you gain by upgrading to a star with the points you sacrifice at the cheap spot. Check whether both players still fit your lineup's scoring scenario.Full explanation ↗ build. I'm going main event, probably a hundred percent main events. And then I'd prefer the scrubs and not play like any care skate a team. I'll drop down to Alan Fry. And I just left eight hundred and I gained upside. I lost money line value to get unique. So I do not care about the line movement in these mid-tier fights. I think this is an upside card, even with twelve fights.

And that's my reason for not not caring about care skate day. But yes, plus six fifty inside the distance is just not going to cut it for me. Yeah, so we got right into this next fight. RJ Harris, minus three-fifty, biggest favorite on the card. Alan Fry, plus two-eighty-four, minus four-hundred for this fight to finish. Harris, minus one-eighty-five inside the distance. Fry, plus three-thirty-five. Harrison, round one, plus one-seventy-five. So yeah, you're probably wondering why is RJ Harris the third most...

Expensive fighter on the card, but the biggest favorite. He opened minus three hundred three minutes later was minus two twenty. And then ever since then, he has taken a lot of money. Again, I already tipped my hand. I like Franco. I like Harris. I like Julius Walker, all the big favorites. In these fights, but I also really like the underdogs. I think they're all going to be under-owned.

When Alan Fry wins this fight, I don't see how he doesn't score like, eighty-plus or eighty-five-plus. This fight's minus four hundred to finish. Under one and a half is a coin flip. So that's what I'm doing this week. I am going to hope at least one of Fry, GM three, and Ribeiro win. Again, DraftKings has the three favorites in those fights when you parlay them all together at plus money. So I feel good about it. I think they'll be under-owned. I think they have a lot of upside.

Allows you to leave money easier. So yeah, I mean, I like all the favorites and I like all those dogs in these three fights. Those are my breakdowns. I'm tipping my hand, but that's how I'm going about this card. What do you see in this one? Yeah, I'm about that life, for sure. I agree with everything you said, except, man, I can just see how this fight turns real ugly for DFS.

If it goes to a decision, I don't even think Frye is making the optimal lineup. I just think this is going to be your typical... Bar room brawl between your most athletic guys in the bar. But I don't think either one of them are really UFC material. So that's what I'm worried about. We got minus four hundred inside the distance. Well, I don't even know. I haven't even looked at upside updated odds, but it's still minus four hundred. Okay. I mean, I like that.

That's what I like a lot. I put it as four stars because of that. Usually when I see minus four hundred, I think five star, though. And that's that's just not even in play in this fight because I don't think either guy is a good wrestler. I don't think either guy is an athletic striker at all. It's just that they're heavyweights and it's a minus four hundred fight that could be a knockout on either side. So that's all we're targeting here.

Is the knockout bonus from either side. And really more so on the Harris side, he has to get a knockout in the first, maybe second round can get them there. Uh, but just looking at the two, I'm just more impressed with Harris. So that's why I put him as four star, uh, And Frye is two star. Man, Frye just really didn't look good at all to me. So I just think Frye is not UFC level at all. I don't know that Harris is either.

But just looking at the two, being a scout, I like Harris more than Frye. I would favor him. When I was doing this fight, Harris was minus two thirty. Now he's the biggest favorite on the card. So however you want to look at that, I kind of thought two-third was a little bit low, but now I'm kind of thinking maybe minus three-fifty is a little bit high because I don't trust this guy either. So I don't know. We're just looking for...

For variance on this fight, we just want a first-round knockout. We want these guys to stand in a phone booth, stand and bang, and want them to go down. And that's how we make the optimal lineup. And if they don't get the knockout, this is going to be the sloppiest three-round fight we have seen in weeks. I mean, at this point, I can't even say months at this point because there's just so many sloppy fights that they're putting together. But we need a knockout in this one.

So give me Harris as my preferred play. For sure. But I mean, this fight, seventy five percent of the time this fight does finish. Twenty five percent. It goes the distance. And yeah, I Ellen Fry is my least favorite of Ribeiro and GM three. But I don't know if RJ Harris should be minus three fifty against anybody. So I'm going to say Fry is my preferred play. Still good with RJ Harris. And the nice thing, again, about Fry, about Ribeiro and about Ribeiro.

GM three is their opponents are all going to be chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗. RJ Harris at $9,100 is definitely going to be high owned. And the same can be said about these other ones coming up. So, yeah, definitely tired in this fight. It's minus four hundred to finish. Fry, probably my preferred play as all these dogs will be in those three fights. Next fight. I'm glad it's back to back. Felipe Franco minus three thirty. Fredson Ribeiro plus two sixty nine. This fight is.

Minus six fifty to finish. Franco minus two twenty five inside the distance. Ribeiro plus three fifteen. Franco in round one plus one fifty. Yeah. Talking line movement in this one. Franco opened minus three fifty and then it went down to minus two seventy one minute later. And then he's taking some money after that. But he did get down to minus three sixty just a couple of days ago. And then there's been some money coming back. On the Ribeiro side, under one and a half, minus one seventy.

I mean, Franco open minus two hundred inside the distance, minus two twenty five. Ribeiro, though, plus two sixty nine money line, plus three fifteen inside the distance, which is kind of what I'm saying. All of these big dogs in those three fights, almost all their win equity is by finish. They're going to be low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. Fights heavily favored or heavily juiced. If Ribeiro wins, I just don't see how he's not optimal.

Again, I'm going to say Ribeiro's my preferred play because I really want to be overweight to GM three to Ribeiro to Fry and hoping one of them wins. But obviously Franco's a good play too. He should be looking to wrestle. And if he does get Ribeiro on his back, which has not been hard at all for many, he should pound him into the ground. But hey, Ribeiro's a scary guy. I prefer Ribeiro to Fry if I have to choose. What do you think about this one?

I agree. I prefer just this fight in general. I prefer Ribeiro to Fry because I think he is more dangerous. I think he would actually have a first round striking edge over Franco where I don't even think Fry has any real edge in this fight. And Ribeiro could knock out Franco in the first round. But if he's not striking, I just think that Franco is going to be taking him down and Ribeiro is going to be spending time on the bottom.

And at a certain point, I just think Franco is going to land enough strikes on the ground.

Or even maybe grab a neck but I would imagine it's probably a ground and pound type of type of finish in this one where I like franco $9,300 I would usually expect a franco type of fighter to be $9,500 so I kind of feel like we're getting a two hundred dollar discount on franco so he's my preferred play uh but on a card like this roberto won't be very owned I do prefer him to fry and I don't even know that ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ will be that same way.

So I'm fine with this fight in general. It's five star for that reason. Give me both sides. But Franco is my pick. My preferred play. Ribeiro will be more of an MME type of thing. Makes some sense. Let's go on to another great fight from one minus six fifty fight to finish to another. Leon Shabazzian minus one fifty seven. Nico Price plus one thirty four minus six fifty for this fight to finish. Individual inside the distance props. Man, so slow.

Leon minus one twenty five price plus one sixty five. Leon in round one plus one ten. Nico in round one plus three fifty. I'm just going to throw it to you. For a question of like, how do you have this as a four star and not a five star fight? I very well might be all in on this one. Under one and a half in this one, minus two twenty. Opened minus, I want to say it was minus one seventy five.

Opened minus one sixty five under one and a half. How does this fight fail? Just by not finishing. If there's not a finish in this fight, it might be sloppier than Harris versus Fry. Nineteen percent chance. So that is definitely still a chance. That's as big of a chance as the Buccaneers had today against the Cowboys. And it's a three point game at half. So anything's possible. So that's how the fight in general fails.

Shabazzian, $8,700 fails from not a finish at all. I don't know how Shabazzian would be on the optimal lineup with a third round finish or not.

With a decision win at $8,700 I just don't think he's a good wrestler um he's not a good striker would not be a high-paced striker the only reason it's minus six fifty is because it's price's retirement fight he sucks at this point and shabazzian sucks too so it's just kind of like targeting against both of these guys and I think it's more Mine is six fifty because I think Shabazzian submission game is kind of dangerous.

And if the fight goes to the ground, I think Nico probably does get submitted. But if the fight doesn't go to the ground, I mean, maybe Shabazzian could catch him. But I feel like this is like last week with Court McGee, like they're giving price the whole roster. Who do you think you could beat on this roster? And he's handpicking Shabazzian. Leon shitbag Shabazzian. And I think he has a chance to beat him. I mean, he's only $7,500.

I don't even know that he ten X's that price tag, but he's definitely in play as an underdog. And if Shabazzian doesn't get really a first round finish, I'd be worried about him and his ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ being on the optimal lineup. He is my preferred play because I do think he is going to get a submission here. But I think there's I think minus six fifty is too high. Personally, I think.

I think we could be in for a really shitty three-round fight here, and we have to watch the whole thing, and we have a bunch of lineups on this fight. I think there's lots of ways it fails, and it looks like a regional scene fight. So I would not want to be all in on this fight. My preferred play is Shabazzian for the finish equity, but Price is a live dog because Shabazzian sucks ass.

Yeah, I never thought I'd say in twenty twenty six. But yeah, Nico Price is one of my favorite plays on the slate. It really just comes down. He's $7,500 at plus one sixty five. Any Shabazzian team I can drop right to Nico Price, leave twelve hundred dollars and really not give up any bit of upside. I mean, yeah, Shabazzian stinks. Nico Price is as bad as it gets. Like it is terrible for him.

When we talk about GM three, like I think GM three, it might have handpicked his Julius Walker matchup like these guys. Such low-level fights, but it looks like the UFC is trying to get these UFC vets a chance to win. And yeah, like you said, he probably did handpick Leon in this one. Just a grappler is Leon. Finished eleven of his twelve wins by submission. He's plus one ten by submission this week. Nico Price more likely to get a knockout. Man, it is.

It's really, really bad. It's hard to pick Nico Price. I'm not even picking him because he's so bad. But for DFS, I think this is more of a game theory card. That twelve hundred goes a long way and is easy to leave money and you're not sacrificing upside. So but yeah, I mean, of course, I like Shabazzian as well. Plus one ten in round one is forty seven point six percent. So it's forty seven percent chance to win in round one.

Not sure his ownership even gets that high. Great fight to target. Twenty or less. Maybe I'm not making a rule to be all in, but at least probably eighty five percent. And I would definitely be fine if I was all in on this fight because of the pricing after the main event. It's it's the main event in this fight for me as my favorite fight to target on the card. And that's mainly because like.

Franco could score one Oh three and not be enough. Same could be said about Harris. Same can be said about Walker one Oh three at eight, seven hundred feels a lot better. Um, so that's my reasoning there, but definitely a great fight to target. Definitely a very low level gross fight when we're talking real life, mixed martial arts. All right, next fight on the card. Another mid-tier fight. Ismail Bamfim taking on Francisco Prado. Prado, minus-one-seventeen. Bamfim, plus-one-hundred. This fight is minus-one-thirty to finish.

It opened minus-or what was it on Tuesday? Tuesday was minus-one-fifteen to finish, an open minus-one-fifteen. So some money has come in on the under. Prado open plus-one-fifty-five inside the distance, now plus-one-thirty-five. Bonfim open plus-four-fifteen, now plus-four-hundred. Prado solid round one prop as well at plus-three-fifty. I'm going to play some Francisco Prado myself. Again, plus-one-thirty-five inside the distance at $1,000 is pretty good. And how I see this fight going, I mean, Prado's a dog. He is definitely small for the division.

I mean, small in height, but he is like built like a truck. He just throws everything with all of his power. And I think he has solid cardio for the division. I'm being skilled, but man, he just feels like when the going gets tough, it feels like he's not he doesn't live up to that hype. He will fold and live to see another day. And I don't think you want to be in that situation against Prado. So.

I don't love this fight, but I definitely prefer the Prado side. I think he has a lot more upside. But yeah, I think the mid-tier is really bad outside of the main event, which is the reason I will be all in on that fight. What do you see in this one? Yeah, I'm kind of Prado or pass on this one. I mean, Bonfim has more experience. He's got a better body. Brother. But I may, thirty years old again for him, kind of like Gato.

He just seems washed to me. I just don't know that there's anything good about Bonfim at this point. I think round one, he can show up, be a little bit dangerous early, maybe catch Prado. Score a hundred plus points at low ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, but I don't really expect him to wrestle for multiple rounds. I don't expect him to keep up any sort of pace for three rounds. And I think he's a front runner.

I think if, if, uh, things start going Prado's way, Bonfim will look for a way out. Uh, so I think Prado has more like long run, long-term finish equity, I guess, in this fight. Whereas Bonfim, if it's not the first round, I think he slows down. But Prado could get a first round, second round, third round knockout.

I just don't think that Prado is going to be a minute short winner in this fight where he's not going to be scoring many takedowns either he's not going to have a super high pace if he gets a decision win he's probably not on the optimal lineup so I think we're really hunting for a finish on either side of this one and I just trust uh the younger prado at this point for for really everything so it's prado or pass We totally see it the same.

Even though I like Prado a little bit, I still don't love the fight, and I do not see how either are optimal if it goes the distance. But the under has taken a little money. Prado, good inside the distance prop. I will definitely have some. All right, let's get to the third fight again that I grouped together with Franco and RJ Harris.

Big favorite Julius Walker minus two seventy five taken on Gerald Mearshart plus two twenty eight minus five fifty for this fight to finish Walker minus two ten inside the distance. GM three plus three fifteen Walker round one plus two hundred. Again, I'm playing a lot of Gerald Mearshart. He's good leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ off of Walker who's going to be owned. When he wins, he should score well. He's only $7,000. Ribeiro, Alan Fry, GM three, three shitty fighters.

GM three at this point is kind of shitty, but he's definitely not shitty in his prime. But yeah, I'm going to be hoping at least one of them win on this card. If all three of them loses, it's probably not going to be a good day for me personally. The question I want to throw to you before you break down this fight, how is GM three plus four fifty by submission and Walker's plus four seventy five?

Like I know Walker can grapple, but man, and GM three is I mean, he's tied for third in the UFC and submission wins in history. So is it just like he gets tired and he gets choked out or do you see it the same way? Do you think their submission prop should be pretty much even? Yeah, I mean, I would favor Mearshart for submission-wise. I guess that would just be Mearshart just looking for a way out.

He's going in there for a paycheck, and if he gets taken down, gives up his back, Walker can choke him out. I guess that would be Walker's. He has been submitted ten times. So, I mean, it does make sense. But, man, it's weird to see that. Yeah. I just don't look at it. Walker is that kind of guy, but I mean, Walker would be the wrestler in this one. So, I mean, maybe it is just mere shark giving up his back.

So I guess it's somewhat makes sense, but Walker's the wrestler. Walker's the younger guy, the more athletic guys. He's a, the better striker, I guess. So the two more knockout power, more durability, but minus two sixty five against really anybody in the UFC. I just don't, I don't know about that. And you, Mearshart has more submissions than Walker has fights in general. So I think even if Walker's going for takedowns, he is not safe.

I think Mearshart's more likely on bottom to get a submission than Walker is on top. So, I mean, I'm picking Mearshart by submission in this fight. I saw Walker minus two sixty five. I'm like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. I like Mearshart as an underdog typically, but I would not like Walker against Mearshart. Fucking RJ Harris as a minus two sixty five. So I'm on mere chart in this one. But I do think mere charts at the end of his career, he could get knocked out in any round.

Walker could land takedowns in every round. And if the submission's not there, Walker could also score pretty well just by takedowns, top control time alone. So it's a five-star. I like both sides of it. If I'm making one lineup, it's Mearshart though. So I almost made my stars four-star Mearshart, two-star Walker, but that's just for you podcast listeners. There you go. I like it. I'm on GM three too. Again, I think Julius Walker is a good play, but I'm worried.

Like if I'm Julius Walker, I'm not trying to take down GM three. Like I know you're good at takedowns, but GM three, I mean, he's going to pull, he would gladly pull you into him and accept that takedown to try and work off his back. And he's definitely live for a submission even off of his back. So go GM three, go Ribeiro, go Fry. I rank him GM three, Ribeiro three. Fry for me.

And also again, why I like GM three, Ribeiro and Fry and playing at least one of them in a lot of lineups is when I play them, then if I'm playing GM three, okay, now it's easier to play Franco and Harris. When I play Fry, it's easier to play Franco and Walker. I don't expect them to all three of them to win, but I'd say more than likely more than half the time, one of these dogs will win.

And then the other ones probably score great. And it's easier to fit them when you dumpster dive. So that's my strategy on this twelve fight card. All right, we'll keep it rolling. Again, appreciate it. Yep, what's up, Lone? GM three is a notorious quitter for sure. Lost fifteen fights by finish. Ten of those have come by submission. And no one at his grappling caliber should be losing ten fights by submission. So that does say a lot. We appreciate everyone hanging out.

Again, all we ask is the like button and subscribe button. It helps us out a ton. We are on to the next fight on the card. Malcolm Wellmaker minus two, ten. Atar Tanzalov minus or plus one seventy seven minus one forty for this fight to finish. Wellmaker plus one hundred inside the distance. Tanzalov plus five seventy five. Wellmaker in round one plus two fifty.

It's been disappointing for Wellmaker in his last two fights, but I think he finally shored up his defensive wrestling. I mean, what else would this dude be doing in camp besides just take down defense, take down defense, get up if you're taken down? You obviously can strike. You've had trouble stopping wrestling the past two fights. I think that changes in this one. I think Wellmaker... Can keep it on the feet or get up if taken down.

And I think he knocks out Tanzalova at some point. $8,900 allows you to drop a Harris to Malcolm Wellmaker. You leave two hundred that eliminate a good amount of dupes. Plus two fifty in round one is pretty good. He's not going to wrestle. So we do need a first or second round finish more than likely. But I do think his ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ will be in check as well. Like Shabazian is going to be way higher on for cheaper. Allen.

G or a higher own for cheaper than I think you get the walkers, um, the Franco's the Harris all more expensive too. So I'm going to use well-maker as a way to get different on this card. I'm pretty confident in him, so I don't want too much Atari, but I mean, I think he's going to come out and try and wrestle. Can he keep that pace for minutes? Seems like you, uh, you like him too well maker side.

So why do you, uh, why do you think that? I just think that Atari has more ways to win this fight. Well, makers got better hands. Some of the best hooks in the entire UFC. I think if he lands a clean hook, he's probably going to knock Atari out. But at $8,900, we have to get that knockout in the first round. Maybe second round could get there as well.

With atari um he's he's kind of like turned into a wrestler so I think wrestling is definitely a fallback for him in this fight and he scored a fifty nine in his loss in his first UFC fight uh make that a win I mean eighty nine points at $7,300 I'll take that all day with his wrestling and I do think wrestling's in play but I I also think he's a decent striker he's like a Like a flashy...

I don't even know that he's a kickboxer, but all his flashiness is with kicks. So I guess that's a kickboxer. But I mean, on the regional scene, I would have thought he was more of a striker. So it would have been kicks versus first hands in this fight. But now he also has wrestling to fall back on as well. So at $7,300, I think any win for him... Could get there, but a wrestling win should get there. So my preferred play is Tanzilov.

I also think that the line, um, is kind of baking in a little bit of well-maker hype. Uh, there's never been Atari hype, but there has been some well-maker hype. He's on a, a down, uh, like, uh, uh, what are we calling it? A down run here, but, uh, He is only a striker. He is pretty much hands only, and he's got to deal with kicks and wrestling in this one. I just wouldn't trust an $8,900 on this card.

If I'm making five lineups, well, makers not making my pool. I don't think he's making my pool with ten lineups. Twenty. He probably gets in there, but I would probably need twenty lineups to pay $8,900 for a well maker. All right. I finally get to a fight where we're a little different on this card. I like it. I like it. Four fights lefts. Looks like we're going to agree on this fight. Not liking it too much. Andre Feely minus one forty five.

Kai Kamaka the third plus one twenty four plus one twenty five for this fight to finish. Feely plus one eighty inside the distance. Kamaka plus five twenty five. For the most part, it's feel your pass. Again, it's kind of like I look at Kamaka as like the Zelenikova, the Karisgete. Like, sure, his money line for the price is good. When he wins, though, I think he probably scores seventy points.

I don't think seventy is going to be enough on this card at $7,600. If eleven of the twelve favorites win and he's the only dog. Sure, that'll be enough. But again, we have no favorite over minus three fifty this week. I think we see multiple dogs barking. I'm searching for upside Kai Kamaka. Is literally the worst person when you're talking upside. Feely, do I love him? No, but I think he could wrestle, and I think he can knock out Kamaka.

Plus-one-eighty inside the distance isn't bad. He's going to be low-ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. Shabazian's one hundred more. Brendan Allen's one hundred less. It's a clear game-theory pivot with a solid inside-the-distance prop and possible wrestling upside, but that's really all I can say. I mean, the fight's supposed to go the distance, and if it does, this fight is completely busting, so... Feely or pass for the most part. What do you think? Yeah, I'm cool with that. I really just don't like the fight in general.

I think Feely does have more upside in this one, so I'd be okay using it for ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ reasons plus upside reasons. But I think we're getting more downside in this fight. It's probably more likely a three-round fight, in my opinion, anyways. And I just think that Feely's just the better scrapper, the more well-rounded, more experienced fighter. But Kamaka's the younger, more athletic guy who's a decent point fighter.

Yeah, he could win minutes in a fifteen-minute fight, but... Yeah, I guess at $7,600, I don't know how much I love that when there's a couple others on this fight that are similar to him. But we also have, like, these cheaper ones that you've mentioned who have way higher ceilings, but also just way lower floors. So, yeah, I kind of think Kamaku would be more like a cash gameCash GameA cash game is a contest that pays a large share of the field, usually close to half, the same flat prize. Fifty-fifties, double-ups and head-to-heads are the common cash games.Treat cash games as the steady base of your bankroll. Use one safe core across your cash entries on a slate, and save riskier ideas for tournaments.Full explanation ↗ type of play, and Feely would be your GPPGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗ type of play, but...

This has been a fight when I've been building lineups. I really just haven't even been thinking about this fight at all. So I think it's going to be a fade for me and I'm going to hope Feely wins and score seventy points. Yeah, like any Kamaka team, I'll just drop down to Fry, to Ribeiro, to GM three. I'm giving up money line equity, but I'm getting less dupes and I'm getting way more upside. That's what I'm doing on this card. You guys know my plan by now.

And again, I said it earlier, like, what was it? The Shabazzian price fight was to go the distance or something. And I said that was the same as the Buccaneers. Well, they're up fourteen ten against the Cowboys right now. And as you MMA fans know, we just saw Gable Stevenson two weeks or three weeks ago. So anything goes in this sports. Yeah, we do our best. That's kind of why I most of the time talk game theory, talk numbers. When you win, how much do you win?

That's the game we play in daily fantasy. It's it's not betting. It's a it's a different game. So that's all I'm going to say there. Three fights left. Another fight, heavily favored to go the distance. Lupe Godinez, minus two-thirty. Ketlin Sosa, plus one-ninety-three. Minus two-seventy-five for this fight to go the distance. Plus three-fifteen inside the distance for Lupe. Plus five-seventy-five for Sosa. I'm going to play some Lupe in this one.

She is going to be very low-ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗, but she's my low-owned pivot in the nine-k range. She's scored over a hundred-twenty twice. Ketlin Sosa can't stuff takedowns. She's a striker. Lupe hasn't put on the wrestling shoes heavy lately, but, man, she'd be so smart if she just did that, or she'd be really dumb if she didn't do that. Why strike with Sozo when takedown should be free? Do I think Lupe's going to be optimal? No.

But when she is optimal, I think you can be paid off handsomely because ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ will be really low, and she does have the wrestling upside to secure five.

Um possibly so it's loopy or pass for the most part soza again give me gm three give me fry give me mirror shark give me the ones with more upside for cheaper so um if you're playing plus teams I wouldn't x out anyone on this card due to the money lines but she's a floor play she's reminds me of kai kamaka like and then loopy's like the the feely the low own pivot in the upper tier and I do prefer her in this one um yeah I mean you're probably gonna say it busts hey Yeah, if I'm making fifty plus teams, I'm excellent.

Yeah. But I'm also cool. I think Godinez does make sense as an ownership type of play at $9,000. People are really not going to want to click on her. But I think she is the better boxer of the two. Not that that's going to do us any good at $9,000. But the wrestling is definitely on her side. And it would be really smart of her to mix in that wrestling when I think the only edge. For Souza, it would be knockout power.

So why even deal with that knockout power when you have a clear wrestling edge and you can deal with wrestling for fifteen minutes? Yeah, I think that's actually a smart way to look at this fight where I really wasn't even thinking Godinez Uh, but at low ownership, a striker with a wrestling background who, who is sometimes can be smart. I think that does make some sense. Yeah. Give me a little bit Godinez of this one on a low ownership.

I think that's my way to get different now. I like it. I like it. Two fights left. Going to, I think, a solid fight. It's not co-main event worthy on any card, but hey, here we are. Mateus Camillo, minus-one-eighty-five. Jai Herbert, plus-one-fifty-seven, minus-two-hundred for this fight to finish. Camillo, minus-one-ten inside the distance. Herbert, plus-three-seventy-five. Camillo in round one, plus-two-sixty. I like Camilo more than Loopy and Feely in a vacuum. Maybe he's a little higher-owned, but he can't be too, too high-owned.

People are going to prefer Leon for cheaper, and then they're going to want to get up to the Harris, to the Walker, and the Franco range. Minus-one-ten to finish, I think is pretty solid. You see these takedowns, four-point-one-six. It is a pretty small sample. Herbert, though, not great takedown defense. He's just a striker. Camilo should come out there. And put on the wrestling shoes. And if he does, he has upside. And as far as Herbert, I mean, he's always live for knockout.

It's throwing his way back to a London card. I don't know if it was like six, seven years ago, but he almost knocked out Ilya Teporia, had one of the nastiest head kicks, and Ilya recovered. But it just shows Herbert can knock anyone out. The problem with him is he's so low volume and he's so boring, he needs a knockout. And like probably the first two rounds, maybe at $7,400, a third round would be enough.

But He could win a decision and it's probably not going to score. So, yeah, Camilla, my preferred side. I will have some Jai, though, because he is a powerful striker. Big height and reach advantage in this one. But Camilla, also thirteen years younger. What do you think about this? Three stars all the way around for you. Yeah, I'm just not sure what to think about this one. I think Camilo is our more well-rounded fighter.

He should be the one looking for takedowns. He'd be more alive for a submission. He could also test Herbert's weak chin and get a knockout on the feet. He just knocked out... Who did he knock out? Sadikov or... Yeah, yeah. He knocked out Sadikov in his last fight, who I thought had a pretty decent chin. And Herbert really doesn't have that great of a chin. So I think Camilo's in play for submission or knockout.

Minute to minute, I would definitely be worried about an $8,800 price tag on the feet. But if he's going to wrestle a lot in this fight, I think he could pay that off. In a striking match, fifteen minutes, that's what puts Herbert in play. He's definitely the more talented kickboxer in this one. Going to be taller, has a big reach advantage as well. Just a more skilled striker in general. So if it were a fifteen-minute striking match, Herbert probably wins that as an underdog.

If he gets a knockdown, he could even be in play for the optimal in a decision. But he probably needs... A knockout for any real ceiling, any real chance that like, oh yeah, Herbert's for sure on the optimal lineup. That would come from a knockout. But if just underdogs aren't winning on this card, he gets one knockdown. I think he could score eighty five.

Points on this card and be absolutely fine so I'm cool with either side of this fight I think the way I would use this fight is uh just kind of use it as a sixth place in my lineup just start building lineups uh if I have $7,400 or less herbert's in there if I have $8,800 or less camillo's in there Hey, that makes a lot of sense for me.

I think three stars all the way around is pretty similar to where I'd have it as well. I think both are going to be relatively low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. You can make a case for both sides. Don't really have a strong or preferred one. It's when I need to get different in the upper tier, I'll go Camillo. If I got to get different in the lower tier. Or have the money, I'll play Jai Herbert. Like give me Jai Herbert over Kai Kamaka. I'll just leave the two hundred for sure.

Give me Jai Herbert over Karis Keite over Zelnikova. It's kind of why I keep talking about leaving money, but I don't love the mid tier. I mean, you can go any bomb theme team down to Jai Herbert right there. You just left eight hundred dollars. So. You guys know where I'm at for this card. All right. It's the main event time. Again, appreciate everyone hanging out. Again, just heading over to Ship It Nation.

Again, if you do want to join us, bottom left, join the nation. You can see all of our different options. Five days for nineteen dollars. If you have never tried us, I think is the best deal. NFL goes non-college football, PGA, MLB, MMA, NASCAR and NHL. And in less than two weeks, NBA. We'll be back as well. So great time to get in. Otherwise, monthly packages, as you can see, weekly packages, and you can see everything that you get with each package.

As it gets more expensive, you do get more, of course. Then single sport, MMA, twenty nine dollars a month if you want to join us. And Big Marley and I were talking a little pre-show. Man, it's been like six cards straight it feels like and like we're continuing to roll the UFC is all gas no breaks right now for a while so definitely get a great bang for your buck all right Last fight, let me head back over to the stone.

I mean, by far the best real-life fight on the card. It's not even close. Like, this is real UFC caliber, mixed martial arts. We got a clash of styles. Brendan Allen, the grappler, taking on Christian Leroy Duncan, the striker. Minus-one-twenty Allen, plus-one-oh-three Duncan. Minus-one-seventy for this fight to finish. The slight underdog, better inside the distance profit, plus-one-seventy-five versus plus-one-ninety for Allen. A couple things to note. So you can see this fight was minus one nine to finish on Tuesday. Now it's minus one seventy.

So the over is taking some money. You can see on Tuesday, Allen was minus one forty. Now he's minus one twenty. So Allen opened up minus two ten. A minute later was minus one ten. So went from minus two ten to a pick them right away. Shortly after that, Allen went to the minus one forty range, got as low as minus one fifty eight. And then ever since then, Money has come in on the CLD side. Really interesting. On the money line, CLD is the value.

Eight hundred dollar difference for a plus or minus one twenty plus one oh three fight screams the underdog and CLD is better on the game theory card on a card. I want to leave money that's leading me to the CLD side because any Allen team go CLD leave eight hundred. You're not giving up much upside. With all that being said, it's like, man, Allen, he should put on the wrestling shoes.

He's fallen in love with his hands a little bit lately, and he's a good striker. This is not the matchup you want to try out your striking against, though. So do you think he wrestles? Do you think he wrestles heavily? If you played, are you all in on this fight? If you played, are you all in? How do you see it going down? What do you think your exposures would be? I'm really curious to hear your take on this. I don't know about one hundred and fifty.

I think fifty I would probably want to be all in. So so when I did this fight, Alan was minus one sixty two. I still ended up picking Alan. So I think Alan is the side in this one. It is a striker versus grappler matchup where it should be clear that CLD is the better striker. He's going to be way more dangerous on the feet. But.

Alan, if he's not getting knocked out, Alan can hang with him on the feet where I don't think Duncan can hang with Alan on the ground. And it's a five round fight. Duncan's been taken down a lot. He's actually had PR set against it. Like came in here, five takedowns, takedown PR right there. Um, the leads, they had three takedowns on Leroy. Man, Deleuze hadn't had more than three takedowns since you were in high school, bro. Rodriguez had a PR, four takedowns.

Armand Petrosian got his only takedown in the UFC against CLD. So not only is he like, I wouldn't say easy to take down, but he's such a scary striker. You really want to take this guy down. So when you have a clear grappling edge and you're trying to put your name in title mix, you don't want to play around with CLD. I mean, if you can knock them out, sure. Then you put yourself in the title picture, but I don't think that's Allen's game.

He's just a decent striker who could win in a twenty five minute striking match. But if he takes Duncan down, he could really look like he belongs in the title picture. So. I'm on the Allen side of this one. I'm probably going to be low on Duncan because now it's a pick and fight damn near. The line's been going in his way. I think he's going to have closer to fifty percent ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗.

So with limited lineups, I made one hundred and fifty lineups last week for the first time in a long time. And it was a big mistake not doing that again. So I'm going to I'm going to be more limited on this on this card. And I'm going to be heavy on Allen. Allen's my favorite play on the card. That's funny. Yeah, one fifty stuff for sure. Yeah, I don't have a strong take on this one.

I'm a big Brendan Allen guy, but the money you can leave with CLD and the line movement like the line has definitely gone against them. And I definitely respect what the market sees. So I'm probably thinking I'll be somewhere. Sixty, forty CLD. A lot of my CLD teams will leave a decent chunk of change. That's all we got for this twelve fight card at the apex. Again, eight of the twelve expected to finish. No favorite above minus three fifty.

I mean, if this was thirteen fights, we got the nut DFS card. Like, there is great fights to target. There's a lot of violence. A lot of expected finishes. A lot of dogs should be barking. You can leave money on the table. Twelve fights isn't great, but...

Know how to get different fade the main event play low own fighters play fights like a gato fighter a pereira fight like it's clear where ownership's gonna go so I'm excited for this one uh in terms for DFS a couple of these fights I'm excited for a lot of low level fights but hey we should uh we should see some funny violence and some slop fest going on and that can always be funny as well so any final thoughts for you before we get on out of here Y'all probably know if I'm excited about this one after the Harris fight.

But if I'm not excited, then good luck to you, Title. Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it. Let's ship it as rights. Head over to ShippinNation.com. So much going on. Let's have a little extra cheese in our pocket from Saturday to parlay into NFL free money Sunday. Hope everybody out there has a good week, has a good weekend. ShippinNation.com. That's all we got for Big Marley. I'm Title Tom. Be safe. Peace.