Steelers vs Brown – TNF Showdown Shippers | NFL Week 4 | DFS Picks, Plays & Process

Want to do at captain you're going to have to click some guys you probably don't want to click in the captain spotShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗ because it does get ugly after guys like Jalen Warren you got Deshaun two quarterbacks that have I don't want to say underperformed. I mean, there's really no expectations for Watson, but I would say Rogers has definitely underperformed, although he did look better in the last game.

I mean, some big plays to Roman Wilson, who you kind of touched on, but this is a slate for sure. You're going to build your teams and it's going to be, it's going to look ugly. It's not going to be comfortable, but you have to embrace it. Everyone's kind of dealing with the same thing.

So again, you know, when we get to the captain portion of the show, like to me, that's the most, important conversation like what you want to do at captain you have uh bijan and gibbs up top in in jalen Warren and then after that it's like okay who's the next guy we're going to and it's tough so to me it's definitely what you do at the captain position um and you know we'll kind of we'll go through all the options and see what we can land on Yeah, shout out to everybody just joining us now in the chat.

We can let everybody sort of roll in. Man, Jake, the take is here on a Thursday. Got to be a slow week out in the markets, man. What's going on? I said Concepcion, nice value from the slot. So yeah, we'll get to all that in a little bit.

I think the biggest thing is when we get to the captain having the Warren discussion because Arguments aside of if he's the Bichon of the Gibbs for this slate, people are treating him like he is that because his ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ is definitely pretty much double, I think, everybody else on the slate. And then from there, you can get different. But you can still play him. If you guys want to play in the Ship It Games over at ShipItNation.com, go to the site, ShipItNation.com.

You can click Ship It Games at the top. You'll be able to see it right away when it pops up here. So just pop this over for you. $45,000 cash and prizes that were given away. A ton of fun stuff going on in the community. But the Golden Shipper is open for this week up to four ninety nine. Can you get into it? It's kind of been just under that each week. So it's good. But we have nine winners now.

Joe Mosley, by the way, Joe M here. I think he's the first return winner. To get back to back years when we just started this last year, but he got another one this year and you have to win it. So it's not even by draw or anything. He got the job done. Our guy Baker Bear is there. James Johnson, a couple others. They got it done, but we are giving away $10,000, $5,000, $2,500.

All this will take place throughout the season. And week one of the playoffs is when you can win the cash prizes. But you got to get in it to win it. So you got to get over to ShipItNation.com and check this out. Another update, just because we're off the top.

If you are watching this later on, I know a lot of you right now where this is live, but those that are watching this on playback later today, if you're like, damn, I don't know if I want to get through this and I can't listen to Tambo on two X cause he's too fast or whatever it might be. You can go now to the site free. Anybody can do this. Go to shipitnation.com click shows. I'll do it for you right here.

You're just clicking that shows button. It'll tell you to subscribe on YouTube, but our show is here. You're able to actually click in. This one's live, so it's kind of stupid I did that. But let's go down to like takedown breakdown from Monday. The show will be there, but then it will have all of the breakdown, the full timestamps for you. And when you click it, it will take you right up to the video.

To that part right in the show that you can get to it. You can read about it. You can find out who we talked about at every position, all that and more. And then lastly, DFSOS.com. If you guys want to check out over there, we are actually going into the news page there. I'm already trying to find the Blake Whiteheart news. I think he's going to be titles guy today.

I got a, I got some insight on that for later on when we get the Blake Whiteheart, but yeah, We'll get to it. Let's jump back in. Title, I'll kick it over to you to start us with the captains. Anything you want to add to Hoops Grand Scheme overview, but I think the big conversation is going to be what do you do with Warren, and then where do you go from there if you have a portfolio to play with?

Yeah, Warren for sure in terms of like three threes, four twos, five ones, definitely expected to be more balanced today. I think five ones on either side will be very contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗.

We have a close spread at two and a half, low total, some solid value on both sides, I guess, but I think it's kind of going to be more middling I don't think people are going to want to go full, full punts for the most part, which, as you can see, just looking at our ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, kickers and defenses are going to get a ton of ownership. And a lot of people land in that range.

As far as my captains, yeah, like I said, if I'm already saying Jalen Warren, compare him to Bijan, because obviously that's not true in real life. Bijan is out of this world. He is on for me on this slate today. It's going to be really low scoring. We're expecting just looking at reception props. Four-and-a-half for Fannin, juice on the unders, the highest on the slate. Warren's coming in number three. Three-and-a-half reception prop. Look at rushing yards, seventy-five-and-a-half for him.

The next highest, Butkins, fifty-five-and-a-half. No one's expected to catch over fifty receiving yards today. Only one favorite to score a touchdown is Warren at minus one-ten, then Judkins one-thirty, and then everyone else is over plus two-hundred. Anyone that watched the game last week with no Rico, he played ninety percent of snaps. He pretty much he ran bad on the box score. Easily could have had two touchdowns in that in that game. DK's holding was terrible.

Everything just sets up, in my opinion, for Jalen Warren. They're going to want to run the ball. He can catch dump offs. He is chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗, but I think there's enough ways you can get different on this slate, whether it's leaving money roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗ wise. I plan on having a ton there. Of Jalen Warren and hopefully double the field. So then after that, it means I'm going to be pretty low on almost all these.

I think my next two favorites is DK and Deshaun Watson. The advanced metrics for DK have actually been pretty good this year, and it does only take one big play from him. Again, if it's single coverage, Rodgers is going to take a shot to him. So just looking at upside and ceiling, I want some DK. And then Deshaun Watson, just because of his rushing upside, If he rushes one touchdown in and throws one, the game's low scoring enough, that could be enough.

And there's so many ways to play Watson at captain because of his rushing upside and the different options he has in terms of receivers. So those are my three favorites. And again, because I'll have so much Jalen Warren, it's going to be pretty hard to get overweight on too many of these other guys. Yeah. I think the biggest one is like, so anybody that's a Ship It Nation member, you can use the stone and go look at it.

We run our data and get the optimals for you so that you can start. And we make it really easy to compare, right? We've got the captain leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ right on there. Hoop, I'll kick it to you, but Jalen Warren at this ownership is still under-owned at the captain. So, you know, we'll see where you want to go with this option, but how are you handling Jalen Warren? And then talk to us about the captain positionShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗ as a whole. Yeah, definitely in on Jalen Warren.

I think he's a phenomenal play. Loved him last week. I mean, he ended up being on my main team on DraftKings. Ended up doing pretty well. That little Lions jet stack that we talked about on Sunday morning paid off and had some Warren in there. Massive workload.

I mean, we joked about the comparison, but the workload is similar to those guys where he's going to get all the work, goal line work, pass catching work, where his game just really fits DK scoring really well. And, you know, he's fine obviously on FanDuel too in this sort of workload, but he can rack up a ton of points in a variety of ways. You know, seven, eight catch reception upside with Aaron Rodgers, who's totally fine dumping it off to running back.

So phenomenal play. And then the question is like, you know, after him, what do you do? And, I feel pretty good about my second guy. It's Deshaun Watson. I think Deshaun Watson is my second favorite captain, and it's a volume-based play. And on a slate where scoring could be low, you got a guy that rushed the ball eleven times last week, eleven times for a quarterback.

Yeah, I mean, he only had like forty five yards, but if that is fifty or sixty yards, you're starting with five or six points right out of the gate. And then if somehow he does rush one in, it's an absolute free roll the rest of the way. I think he's clearly my number two favorite option. We're showing him at twelve percent. Not worried about that like at all. When you're talking about captains, I don't really even factor in ownership until these guys hit like twenty or so.

Jalen Warren is obviously at twenty, but that means everyone else on the slate is going to be much, much lower. What's the difference between eight percent and twelve percent? It's nothing.

All these guys are going to be fifteen percent or lower in on Watson and then after him it's kind of like a group of guys that I'm interested in DK Metcalf definitely one of them very disappointing to start the year but you know it's one of those situations like Aaron Rodgers is going to figure out a way to get this guy the football at some point on a consistent basis and it could very easily be tonight and he's the guy that when he does get going it's like fifty yard touchdown or something and

We'll break the slate open and I could see him getting like a little um you know a little short pass it just takes the house tonight I think that's definitely in the cards maybe a little slant or something for for fifty yards and if that is the case you know I know our social media does those little clips of the videos from the show I want it to be played here because I'm kind of calling that shot I can definitely see it happen d uh DK Metcalf fifty yards slant to the house After that, I think guys like Fanon to me are very interesting up top.

Not an expensive play on the slate, but you look at the workload, didn't do much week one. It was kind of a disaster for the Browns, but six targets in week two, nine targets last week. Probably the preferred option. He played well last season. He's my next guy in line, but really pretty similar to what Title said. I want a lot of Jalen Warren.

If you're going to go overweight on Jalen Warren, that's going to be a lot of your ownership in the captain spot because probably like twenty five ish percent so if you do make a play on him and play you know forty percent it kind of gobbles up what you do with the rest so it'll probably be a pretty tight group for me it's going to be Warren it's definitely going to be uh Deshaun Watson I'll say Fannin next and then DK Metcalf those are my top four and then you know outside of that it would just be sprinkles of other guys Yeah, a couple of things there right away.

It's funny you said that about not just the Metcalf call. First off, you had the Geno call last week. I mean, you said it, which was hilarious that you were title. I recapped it on Monday. The social media team put it out. You're like, I'm a little biased, but I'm just being honest, like Geno versus this defense. And that's also my team. And it was Geno on Seattle last time against Detroit the same way.

And then it ended up showing up on takedown breakdown on pretty much every winning roster. So you had that. But it's something – I don't have to cut you off, but it's definitely something to take note of. It's one of those situations where we were ahead of the curve on the DAC stuff and the Cowboys a couple years ago where they were just passing and passing and passing. This is a legit situation.

People might – and the Lions are on this main slate, so we can't really take advantage of it this week. But their secondary is atrocious, and this will happen all season long. So I think the Lions game stacksGame StackIn the NFL, a game stack usually combines a quarterback, one or two of his pass catchers and one or more players from the opposing offense.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗, as soon as we get them back on a main slate, just go right back to it no matter who they're playing. It doesn't matter just go right back to it I mean it's a situation to take advantage of Sunday night football this week.

Everyone's mad now because we're finally going to get the game where JMO goes off. Cause horns out now and it's the Panthers, right? So they're already, you got two bad secondaries now that Carolina has lost their guy. And then you got the spot where JMO could actually break the slate and go off. And of course I can't get this on a main slate, but our guy Hamhawk on Monday had the Luther Burden call.

We teased and joked that if it's not forty five exact yards, but still pretty damn good. And it happened right out of the gate. And then I pulled up the notes and, on DFSOS for Metcalf. Just see what are we seeing lately? And right away, it's reminding people that last year versus the Browns, not that this means anything, but funny, the line hoop said it was nine targets. DK Metcalf had four catches for ninety five yards and a TD.

So just, you know, showing you what type of game you can see and what could happen. Again, nothing to do with last year versus this year, but a ton of different ways you can go. My take at the captain is is probably going to have to stay around field with Warren and just hope that the field builds really bad lineups with him. And I've got enough good ones because I actually like a lot of the other options.

I get that he projects off the page, but what title said earlier is so important to me. If we are like, again, these two teams blow it up. And for once we get a Thursday night football game with two bad teams that ends up going off great for TV watching, probably not going to be great for my lineups, but maybe it can get there. But I think it is going to stay, you know, a little bit more sluggish.

And for those types of slates, I know that it could just be Warren because of that. And I'll have a bunch of them. I'll probably have twenty five percent of him or somewhere in that range. But I want some of the guys that leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ that. I think another thing that gets talked about, I saw this on X today is like, oh, if Aaron Rodgers never runs. So why would you play him a captain?

Like if it's not going to be this crazy back and forth game, then we might not need rushing yards. And if, you know, Watson puts rushing yards up, then great. But it's like at the other side, you've got the guy for three hundred dollars more than Warren. And we listed off Warren catching passes, literally the third best prop. I think title said for receiving. You've got Metcalf. You got Pittman, Roman Wilson, Freiermuth, Darnell Smashington.

This guy out there just run him dudes over. So it's like there's a ton of guys. He can throw the ball too. And if it's going to be lower scoring, or if it ends up that way, it could, it could be high scoring. And he's part of that as well. Like title said, we just saw maybe a Keenum inspires Rogers to finally get things going, but either way, it's definitely possible. So I like that.

Like your guys call on Metcalf as a whole just in general like a Metcalf or pitman I think those are the two $10,500 and $13,500 in the captain so I'm in on both of those guys and then on the other side it's probably more like the receivers than anything else like yeah Watson's up there for sure but it's Concepcion Boston and Fannin and you can't play them all at a high enough clip But I currently see like Boston, Concepcion and Fannin combining for like ten to twelve percent in the captain, the way things are going to shake out.

So you'll be able to get an overweight stance on those guys just fine. So I get the Warren love. And it's, look, he's going to get the volume like you guys talked about, but I'm going to be trying to leverage that up via his own guys, Rogers, Metcalf, Pittman. And then on the other side, Concepcion, Boston, Fannin, and then, you know, some Watson. But I think Watson and Warren will probably be like field and the other guys are where I get overweight.

Hoop, anything else you want to add there? If not, you could talk us through anything else at quarterback as a whole, maybe a rebuttal on the Rogers stuff. Tell me how bad he is, but I've got interest in the leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ angle of it. No, I mean, it looked better last week. I mean, made some of those long, long passes. And, you know, the key, I mean, he's got two capable guys in DK Metcalf and, you know, Michael Pittman.

I think he's going to develop a better connection with those guys as the season goes on. So I don't hate it.

Know for for captain you know I don't really know how much I'll get there but in in flux we always talk about it you know in for the quarterbacks like if they fit in there and they make sense then you're just gonna kind of play them I mean they have a very high floor higher floor than basically any other position on the field. So good with either. I definitely, like I said, prefer, uh, Watson.

Um, if deciding between the two, if it's a neutral situation really doesn't matter for a roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗, I would, I would take Watson. Those, uh, a lot of in rush attempts are just stuck in my head and, uh, I can't really forget about it. So Watson over Rogers, but definitely both good for flux. Yeah, our guy Newens is trying to make his ham hock call here. He said, Concepcion nuke for all the kids on national TV.

Calling the postgame interview right now with his stutter, pulling a ham hock, calling my shot. KC going to nuke tonight. So that would be, you know, something that would definitely be big for this slate. Like it currently looks like he's going to come in around five percent in the captain and he's $9,600. So, you know, you get a unique roster compared to using.

Warren or Metcalf or that that's the other thing title I'll go back to you and just stick with quarterback but didn't take us into running back from there but it's like the other thing about captain just wrapping it up is Rogers Warren Metcalf and Watson are all $13,500 through $14,700 so you're getting a very similar build and really with to me it's like okay both Watson and Rogers can go into a ton of lineups, especially if people are playing for lower owned or sorry, like a lower scoring type build, because if you're going to put Metcalf, people are naturally going to have Rogers and then you can fit Watson.

If they're not playing Warren or whatever, like they're gonna have to make their choice that way, but it feels like a lot of lines. We'll have three of those guys, right? Yeah, I would say probably. And to be honest, I think one way, because I'm eating so much chalk with Warren at captain in flex, I can drop either quarterback to DK, Pittman, Freiermuth, KC, Boston, Fan. And I think that's what I'll be looking at.

Any of them can outscore those quarterbacks in a vacuum, especially if Not many points are scored. Like if these quarterbacks don't push it down the field a ton on a full point PPR site like DraftKings, eight for fifty, thirteen points is really good and could outscore that quarterback. So I think I'm going to be underweight quarterbacks, probably captain and flex, to be honest, because that's the easiest way. I don't love these full punts when it comes to leaving money on the table.

I think my favorite way to leave money is those quarterbacks to the cheaper pass catchers is how I'm looking at it right now.

Yeah, one thing about that that I'll add then, and then I'll let you take it into running back, is just one thing you said there that stands out that's kind of interesting is like if you went Fannin, captain, not only do you have a unique roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗ because you're starting with a guy at XI, but you would definitely – it would still make a ton of sense to have Watson, who we like up in the captain slotShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗, as well as Warren – Who we like up the cap in your flex.

Cause like it's tells the story, like fan and has the guy with them. Warren's on the other side, still getting his volume. It's just, how does the game play out and, and then build it that way. It's no different if you go, um, Concepcion or Boston or something up to like Boston kind of expensive. So I don't think people are going to love that, but if you put him up top, you still got Watson, no problem. You still get Warren, no problem.

Or you could get it and fade Warren that way and have Rogers, uh, You got both quarterbacks, but not Warren up top. You leave Warren out of that build, and then you're able to get the pass catchers on both sides and just hope that it is a little bit more back and forth.

So I'll let you take us into running back in a second, but our guy Go Collect bringing an inside joke from the Ship It Nation Discord over says, Juj afternoon, you just put a J in your name. And this was the takeaway, and it's been working for people.

A lot of winners based on changing their names to putting a J out front, but- Jacob, Jason, Joe, and even James has a J at the last of his name, but it just constantly, the J's just show up. It's a common name, I guess, but it does pop up quite a bit that we see these J's. J's are running hot right now. The Jays are running hot. So not the Blue Jays, that is.

No sign of the playoffs this year after making it all the way to the World Series last year and being one mogging away from getting the job done in the outfield there when what's his buddy? Pajas or whatever they say. It looks like pages, but it says Pajas when he just dunked on his own guy. Just dropped the ball one time and the Jays hit it. Or Rojas is a homer. That was so what a world series. Baseball is so good.

I got a couple of mega tickets in the baseball street. Actually, it's pretty, pretty sweet. Same lineup and fell asleep, pulled a Hoopster. I was like, Oh, this guy's got a Tatis jr. And I'm only up like six points in both of the cues and like the satellites. And I'm like, Oh man, I'm just sitting here. Last thing I remember seeing is sixth inning. It was four to one and I woke up and it was still four to one. I got two tickets in the account.

So, I saw you played opening day two in the three thirty three. And so Belman was up there. So playoff baseball is fun. Yeah, I had a ticket for that. And then once I had a ticket, I was like, I got to just play another. So I wanted to like offset him. I ended up min cashingMin-CashA min-cash is the smallest prize in a contest, earned by finishing just inside the paid places. In tournaments it is usually a small multiple of the entry fee.Do not judge a tournament slate by how many lineups min-cashed. Track your top finishes, since that is where tournament profit actually comes from.Full explanation ↗ and I think I got six fifty back on my six fifty seven on the six sixty six. But one was a ticket. So we grind in these streets.

You know, it depends. But baseball, I like it when they put the tickets up. For NFL because it's just another access point to it versus like waiting for tonight when you're going to be in them as well. Tonight also is a bunch of FFWCs, but they have like the eighty four dollar qualifier to the $5,000, which is a chance to play against like fifteen teams as opposed to having to beat a couple hundred or thousands of teams to get in.

So I like that one as well. But I digress. I'll kick it over to you, title. We're talking about running backs now. If you don't have anything else at the quarterback position. Yeah, two more. You said Jays are hot. I bet G. Rison's probably got a J that's hot right now currently while he's watching, if he's even watching. Joe Jagan. Jagan is like a term for like smoking a Jag. So it's like that is like an urban dictionary version. I was like, oh, man, G.

Rison's going to love this one. I just spoke to G rising yesterday, man. This upcoming weekend's a weekend. I usually get together with them, but I had, you know, something I can't make it. That was the last year. I think I sent you the video title. Yeah. At the camper. Yeah. At the campus. I can't, can't make it this year. Unfortunate. Yeah. Huh? What'd you say? The second thing I was going to shot for my buddy, forty four scorcher.

He took down the qualifier last week, the four ninety. So shout out to him. That was one of his goals. Definitely. I love that. It's the first time ever. Yeah, he just got into DFS. He won the Arizona State Championship, like a crusher in poker. He's only twenty seven. Then he transferred to the DFS streets as well. And yeah, he's familiar with the shipping streets that he's shipping pots over there. Yeah. Oh, yeah.

And he knows the Tyler guy and he plays with them. So, yeah, shout out to him. That's really hard to. To qualify for that, as we know. But, yeah, jumping to running backs, I mean, on the Steeler side, it's just Jalen Warren. He handled pretty much every single snap. I'm not going to mess with any of these other ones. And then for Cleveland, yeah, the split was a little worse than I wanted. Butkins only scored – or played fifty one percent of snaps.

And this Raheem Sanders guy played forty three percent. Now, I'm not expecting that gap to be as close as it was last week. But Raheem Sanders is definitely overpriced at $4,400. But he's only showing six percent. Like if it is going to be that similar split, I don't think it's going to be. But if it is to be $4,400, really low ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ that a guy that's on the field a little bit is something that I have a little interest in.

As far as Judkins, definitely prefer him in the flex to captain. He doesn't really catch passes. His rushing prop's fifty-five and a half, which isn't great. But his rushing attempts prop is almost the same as Warren at sixteen and a half. If he's getting seventeen carries in this game, that is something that I would be interested in in the flex. And again, any Watson team, any Rogers team, you can just drop down to Judkins.

It feels like the best case for him, though, is... Seventy on the ground and two touchdowns, which would be good. But again, that's best case. He still is plus one thirty to score. So I do like Judkins in the flex quite a bit. I compare him with Steeler or compare him with Cleveland defense. But I do not like it as captain as much. But I'm curious to hear your guys take on this Raheem Sanders cap. Someone said in the chat, Sanders eight receptions.

Our boy Oracle said Sanders eight receptions on the year. So, I mean, anything like that is certainly viable. I mean, for the flex, for sure. But if you're talking about Judkins having a seventy yards and two touchdowns or something like that, let me slam that. Yeah, I don't think I said that's best case for him. Like, yeah, he hasn't done that probably since he's been drafted. You know, you know, you know, shit on him.

When title talks about Buckins, he has to lay out the best case scenario. You can't lay out the realistic scenario. It's got to be like what he could do. I'll let you talk about that. Not what he's Likely to do. I'll talk about what he's Likely to do. And he's not Likely to be on the winning lineup tonight. I'll tell you that much. I'm definitely out on freaking Buckins tonight. Forty percent ownership. Like if Buckins beats me at forty percent ownership.

$8,800 and we're banking on him scoring two touchdowns. Yeah, I'll just I'll move on to next slate and get ready. I'll get started researching the main slate for Sunday instead of instead of sweating these DFS lineups tonight. There is no that's got to be the worst click of the season right there. Quote this tweet when Tamborai shipped with Buckins in our lineup. Worst click of the season is Buckins.

Opposite running back of Warren, and he's on the other side, and it's only a two-and-a-half spread. It's Rodgers. Like, oh, man, this could be the spot. Sanders is going to outscore Buckins, all right? We'll take it to the next level. What's the prop for Judkins right now? Fifty five and a half on the ground. Plus one thirty to score. Sixteen and a half rushing a tent prop, though, which is high.

So you're telling me his price should be like $4,000 on the slate and he's $8,800. You just got to get loose, man. Sanders is outscoring Buckins. How about that? So how much Sanders are you going to have?

A lot yeah I actually like that I mean I looked at I mean those receptions for sure at eight what these $4,400 uh you get three receptions one five he's pulling in all these targets as well I think uh he's converted every target except one and that's saying a lot with Watkins throwing you the ball I mean that dude's not very accurate so or with uh Watson throwing the ball so uh I like him quite a bit I'll be playing him to me it's yeah Warren Sanders, and then I'm not playing anyone else at the running back position.

So that's where I'm at. And the ball call for sure is Sanders to outscore Buckins. Very bold. It definitely is. I think it could work out from a... Again, it might not work out. You're calling it raw points. That's nuts. But it could really work out from the DFS perspective because if you're going to need Warren up top or Rodgers or Watson or whatever, anything like that, DK Metcalf, Sanders is just going to make a ton of sense in those lineups.

And honestly, Hoop, I think people would be way more apt to play you know, Roman Wilson on the other side or Friar Muth for a thousand, fifteen hundred, sixteen hundred bucks more, whatever it is. So it's like it's only twelve hundred bucks more and you get the Friar Muth, but you could just play Sanders to catch balls on the other side. So it makes it makes it pretty interesting there. I don't have too much else to add.

I guess the Judkins props is what I was thinking about. I'll have Sanders in the flex. I definitely would want Judkins more in the captain. I'll look at my stuff later when I get to it. But if you save yourself some cheese tonight. It's like I played my homes last week and that did not work out either. So back to never my homes, by the way, but it's sometimes you just have to let the slate come to you.

And that one didn't work for me, but if Warren is going to be, this is a prime example. We did this. So last year we had a Browns Jets slate and, And it was Brees Hall. It was the main slate, mind you. It wasn't showdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗, but just to note the example of the situation. It was very similar to this, though. But the Jets were at home. They were, I think, one and a half point favorites.

And twenty percent of the field was on Hall. And then they were putting the defense with it and blah, blah, blah. And it was like, you just go to the other side with Judkins and the Browns D and it was at two percent for Judkins versus twenty for Hall and like one percent versus eighteen on the defense. And lo and behold, a one and a half point spread went the other way and it was by a big margin and Judkins crushed.

And I'm not expecting him to do that because it has nothing to do with that. It's just saying people get very confident in one side here. If Judkins is to actually do anything, I think it would be in the captain. That's my thoughts. But he'll fall into line in other places, I'm sure. Nothing else for me at the running back position, Hoops. I'll let you take it in a wide receiver if you want.

You can do one more about how bad Judkins is. You can tell us one more time. I'm just going to leave it right there. Enough said and just move on, right? I think that's probably best for the show if we just leave the Buck and stuff where it's at. I'm sure at some point I'll take another shot. But for now, we're going to talk wide receiver. And it is crazy. Look at it.

Just looking at the projected fantasy points from the wide receivers on this slate. We have nobody higher than eleven Fantasy points right that's like kind of insane it would take these two teams you know I think almost every other team maybe besides like the Titans or it might be a couple other examples but this is a very very low numbers. Really, when you're playing these wide receivers, it's just going to be all correlationCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Full explanation ↗ sort of thing. Correlation stuff within your lineups.

Just talking about the Pittsburgh guys, like I said, DK Metcalf is going to get something going. I wouldn't be surprised if it is tonight, a fifty-yard touchdown. He's going to be the highest ownedOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. It's not a crazy number, though. It's not like we're saying he's going to be fifty percent. We're showing thirty-two percent in the flex fine play. Michael Pittman, Had high hopes for him coming into the season. Really hasn't panned out. I do still want to be on him today.

And then Roman Wilson. He's the one that kind of broke Aaron Rodgers out of the slow start and had the big touchdown last week, $4,000. Think he's a fine option as well. I'm good with all those guys. I guess maybe I just talked myself into some Rodgers captain because I do like these pass catchers, Metcalf, Pittman and Wilson. So maybe I will circle back and add in some some Rogers captain to the conversation that we had earlier.

The Cleveland side is a little more difficult for me. I guess a lot more difficult just because I like Watson, but I like Watson because the eleven rush attempts and if he's going to rush that much, it's going to be less passing. So Concepcion, Boston. Jerry Judy, not as interested. So definitely prefer the Pittsburgh side. But, I mean, Jerry Judy, $3,000. Like, what has he done this year? I do want to pull that up. Obviously not much. Yeah, that's what I was going to say.

If he's down to $3,000. Wow. Literally, you're right. It could not be worse for him. Zero for zero. Who froze, I think. Remember Jerry Judy, Jack, just a guy? Just a guy? He's definitely just a guy at the end of my best ball teams getting me absolutely nothing. Am I back in there? Yeah, you're back in there. Yeah, but it follows the Js, though. You know, Jerry Judy got, you know, that whole thing going. But, wow, he's done nothing. Him or Buckins?

I'd play Jerry Judy at $3,000 over Buckingham for sure. Yeah, definitely. One other name though, that does this Bernard guy for the, for the Steelers. I know they had high hopes for him coming into the season really hasn't been involved, but that's probably mostly because the offense has been, so he had eight targets in, in, in week two, obviously didn't do much last week. Yeah. Pittman. Okay.

And then last week you had one catch, but Roman Wilson kind of excelled that week. So I still want to include them again, especially if you're doing the Aaron Rogers captain teams, I think definitely include them, but clearly feel way better about the Pittsburgh side than the Cleveland side here. Yeah, that's what I was trying to, I kept trying to look it up. I thought I saw it a couple of times today. So what happened?

Like, I don't follow it enough for that to remember it exactly, but of Roman Wilson stats, but he caught a touchdown in the first half and they got benched in the second after like a bad drop that led to an interception or something. Like, I think that's what everyone's saying. And like Rogers got him benched or something maybe is what they were trying to say, but said he got pretty much benched after the INT barely played in the second half after having five targets in the first.

Rogers has a history of benching a young wide receiver who has a mistake in the past any worries about that blah blah blah people are talking about so I'm curious yeah see what he actually ends up doing today but on this slate you can play you know any of these guys I think um somebody asked this earlier title what do you do here with this one justin says if you're playing two pass catchers on either side are you locking in their quarterback to match No, I don't think so.

Just because if it's low scoring enough and all those like the eight dots on a lot of these guys are so small, six catches for thirty yards is in play. So if that's the case, your quarterback's getting essentially nothing in those. And it's a full point PPR that's helping. I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if the game does go under. You might see a snowflake in your lineup in the optimal when it's all said and done.

Just with the nature of the slate so I wouldn't force that obviously it makes sense to do that but a way if you don't do that and it works that's how you eliminate dupes anti-correlation in showdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗ yeah agreed on that especially if you have that game you know being a lower scoring game it's you know could be one of those situations where it's just like you said six for thirty five and it's like that's still pretty solid and you may not need the quarterback because that's how you can get different and unique in your own way um I'll kick it over to you title for the wide receiver stuff Pittsburgh side, I do think Roman Wilson.

I'm going to go back to him. Twenty and a half is receiving prop. I think he's my favorite in the flex. Like Pittman thirty three and a half receiving yards when Wilson twenty and a half and Pittman $7,000 and Wilson $4,000. I can easily go any Pittman team drop to Wilson and leave $3,000. And I don't even think I'm sacrificing much. It's been really, really bad for Michael Pittman this year.

So and yeah, if you think that the the benching is going to carry over, then I think Jeremy Bernard is the one that would take advantage. Like Ben Skowronek and Bernard mixed in. It's really hard to play Ben Skowronek in twenty twenty six for me. So I do think Bernard would be fine at $3,200 if you think that way. Yeah. DK Pittman, they're going to be on the field. I like DK a good bit.

But I think Roman Wilson at that price tag when looking to leave money is good on the Cleveland side. Man, I think Concepcion in Boston, I'm going to be on the Concepcion side. His price tag at $6,400 is really good on this slate. I do think Boston fine as well. They're going to be without Tylan Wallace today, which isn't the biggest deal, but he played twenty percent of snaps last week when Judy played fifty.

So maybe that that gives Judy sixty five percent of snaps or something. Again, it's been as bad as it gets. He's $3,000, though, in one play can can. I mean, one point one catch for fifty yards or something might be enough on a slate like this. Do I love it? Absolutely not. He has a fourteen and a half receiving prop. Like, again, all of these only one player in this game and DK is projected to have over forty receiving yards.

That's terrible. Like, it's absolutely terrible. So I think that's why Roman Wilson Concepcion are my favorite because they don't break the bank. Yeah, but the receiver is kind of gross. Tight end, I think, is a lot more interesting because Steelers use these tight ends almost as pass catchers and fanning as well. That's the tricky part, and we're going to get there in a second, but it's like Freiermuth and Fannin. Rogers, Watson, Warren, Freiermuth, Fannin.

And then obviously DK on one side and a mix of Concepcion, Boston on the other. But that's kind of like the pool that people are playing in. And at the end of the day, there's very few receivers in that pool. It's a lot of running backs, quarterbacks, tight ends. And then obviously we haven't even got to defenses and kickers, which look to be pretty owned today as well when you get these lower scoring thoughts and things like that that people have.

So it makes it... It makes it a little bit easier to find a unique lineup, but then it makes it a little bit harder to trust on if that's going to be the thing. So I like having a portfolio for a day like today specifically. But Hoop, I don't know if anything else resonated for you there, but I forgot you didn't say much about Rashee Rice and victory that he was seven for eighty eight last week. I was I mentioned my homes earlier.

Literally didn't sniff any optimal you ever looked at. You did not want to play Rashee Rice with Garrett Wilson right there. I can't take the victory lap because he didn't find the box. But if he finds the box, it's a whole different story. So it's like he was better. If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle or something. Yeah, no, I didn't. I was not. Tambo tried walking me down the plank, and I didn't take the bait there. I can't fully victory lap that.

But the main point of the show was the Jets and Lions, and that got the job done. Yeah, you were right. The Rashee Rice thing. Like the stuff about like two weeks in and someone's dust or they're no good. Yeah. No, Rashee Rice is going to be totally fine. Title will eventually – He did that against the JV Dolphins team. He's dust. We got time. It's only what? It's week three.

Title will definitely have to – before the season's over, he's going to have to walk that one back, and I'm going to wait it out. It's fine. We got a long season ahead of us. You know, I think Tambo's on my side on this one. I have a feeling he's on my side.

Writing guys off so early and it was like you said it was very you know there was there was opportunities for him there the Chiefs made mistakes yeah I'm I'm waiting I'm waiting don't worry I got that I got that thing queued up right in the back of my head ready to go at any any point it wasn't after last week but it's gonna be soon well who did I tag you on Sunday and ask about title I forget you were probably busy doing something else but I remember tagging me like where does this guy land on the dust chart because it was like Oh, he did something insanely bad.

I can't remember. I'll try and think. Oh, man. I can go to Discord. We'll figure it out. Yeah, we can search Discord right after. All right, cool. I'll go to you, Hoop, then stick with you. Let's go to tight end. Title mentioned, obviously, Friar Muth catching passes. You know, Fannin definitely looks good in this spot. I think more people just are comfortable going to tight end in general. The chat's already talking about Darnell Washington. We know what his capabilities are.

So give us your thoughts here at the tight end position. Yeah, definitely like the position. I mean, talk about fan and, you know, really like fan and want to play him up top, too. So definitely going to like him. And even in Watson captain teams, I like him. Friermuth, fine play. And then, you know, Darnell Washington at $3,600. I mean. You know, we always say, you know, someone's a grown ass man.

This, this guy is the definition of a grown ass man where he will just run your ass over and he'll do it for, it's not like, it's just like, okay, it's a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, a, and he runs a dude over and and you know, it gets a touchdown like that's all you're going to need from him at thirty six.

So you know a couple of things now that we've talked about all these skill possession players. I don't have the exact numbers, but this is going to be a Pittsburgh heavy slate in terms of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. I mean, it's just going to have to be. There's going to be probably a lot of four twos, I'd imagine, in favor of Pittsburgh tonight.

It's going to be a very common roster buildRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗ because there's just so many more viable – not viable, so many more comfortable plays on the Pittsburgh side.

So I think we're going to see a lot of that and then – Circling back to that captain thing, with so many viable options for Aaron Rodgers, including the running back and Jalen Warren as a passing target, I think I want Rodgers in captain now because there is a path for him to throw three touchdowns to three different guys. So I'm definitely now in on the Rodgers captain stuff after talking through all these skilled position guys. Title, it was Romo Dunze. You look it up.

Yeah, it was a Dunze because he dropped that touchdown. That was bad. That was so bad, man. But who are the other guys now? So it was Rashi Rice, Romo Dunze, and there was two more before that from the actual show that we talked about. There was Dust on the show. Who was the other Dust guys? Like that guy is Dust. Help us out, Chad. Somebody got to remember who we were talking about on the Sunday show, man. You know what?

It could be an expert opportunity. Let me see if I can see. Was it Geno? I know he's talking shit about my guy Geno. It could have been that. No, no, no. The reason, and it really sucked, but all Geno teams played Garrett Wilson, but when you played Sadiq with him, which I didn't do, that was the sharp play. You needed both, obviously. Yeah, double it up. You needed the doubles. I had the... I included Amonra, which, I mean, I still did well.

I mean, I had a really good day on DK. Isn't it crazy in that game, that many points scored, and a touchdown is a weapon. If he doesn't score the touchdown, it's a full-on freaking bust. I know. Like, full-on bust. It's just always Gibbs, I guess, man. Oh, it's next level. So if Gibbs is on a slate, but you talked about earlier, it's frustrating watching Bijan because the one game he does nothing. Anytime he's chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗.

He's just off the planet ability of the stuff that he does. But it feels like Gibbs does that every time. Every time. He never fails with him. He's just so, so good. Too good. They use him so well. They use him in the slot to run a slant route. Linebackers can't guard him. Yeah, he's too good. I'm trying to see how powerful this thing is right now just to check it out. Well, you can take us into tight end if you want there.

Yeah, I don't have much. Like, I think the tight ends are good. Fannin, obviously, on the brown side coming off a big game. But Freiermuth and Darnell, they both played over sixty percent of snaps last week. They're going to run two tight end sets. Friermuth is definitely involved. And yeah, Washington, just a grown ass man. And they want to get him the rock. So I think both of them are very solid for their price. And you can leave money. Any DK team can be Freiermuth.

I mean. I assume many remember last year's Bengals-Steelers Thursday night game later in the year where every single tight end I feel like had a hundred yards and a touchdown or something. And one of the most wild games, Flacco-Rogers. So the tight ends are very valuable, all three of them. Yeah, I was going to look it up here and see just one sec. Was it somebody else, man? Like McLaurin, was he one of them? I mean, I think Terry's good in real life.

It hasn't been great for him. Raiders at the Saints. He just needed Daniels to get hurt, and then he has a good game. All right. This is what's way more important anyway because everybody knows about all these other tight ends. We don't need to talk about it. Is Fanon a top ten tight end? I don't know, but tonight he's a top two tight end. That's a funny-ass picture. Caleb Williams. It just reminds me.

Now when I see him, I just think of Paul Pierce getting in the wheelchair. That's all I can picture now. That was great. He was out for five years. Week to week. Career under. Meanwhile, Dart's trying to come back and the dude tears his ACL or whatever. Did you see the one of the other night when Keenan was making his speech and Caleb's standing there in the robe? And someone said, this man didn't break a sweat tonight.

He still got in the shower with the boys.

Player just making fun of him but yeah um that wasn't impressive and the Keenum and performance is very impressive man ben Johnson is just such a he's such a genius I mean just he is so he's levels above so many of these coaches sirianni yeah go ahead moron fourth in one and he took a delay a game to punt like that's a fireable offense right away your win equity drops significantly from one decision how how are you not canned on Tuesday That is horrible.

And then Jalen Hurts has to be the most gutless quarterback in the NFL. Just nothing. Just so blah. How the hell did they win a freaking Super Bowl? I forgot who wasn't with us on Monday. How about them Dallas calls down the stretch? Everyone was worried about the one second left on the clock. It's like, don't even allow yourself to get in that position. First of all, but it was a disaster. People like always say like, Oh, you think you can coach better?

No, I'm not a better. I do. Then Sirianni. I think I could coach better than Nick Sirianni. Stuff that you watch happen like that. And you're like, buddy, I don't need to tell you I'm a better coach. I'm just telling you what would be very wrong to do in that situation. And they did like three of those things. It's like just I'm not saying like, yeah, it's tough to criticize these guys because obviously they did something right to get to where they're at.

But like the hard part is when you just see the just most basic common sense stuff, like the just most basic common sense situations. And they just can't do it. I honestly think it goes back to a majority of these guys just have that syndrome where they want to be the smartest in the room. And a lot of them will just overlook the most obvious thing to try to do something different, to say they're smarter than everyone else.

But the punting thing, you're down two scores. Your odds of winning the game go down significantly as soon as that football leaves the punter's foot. It drops a significant number. Like that's common sense. When did they not push push? They always push push. Like what? Why not there?

Yeah I just don't get how people like act like it's not a big like when you go into the meeting at that like if the game's over the owner says you're like why the hell did you do this it's like the answer would just be math like easy like they can't deny the math if they if they did it right if they went when they don't do it it's like how does it not go the other way isn't the owner like you're an absolute idiot the math is horrible what you just did there you need to think smarter next time and make the proper move like you think there's some sort of inner intersection there where it's like one is smart and the other stupid.

And they tell the other Person that respectfully as working together, it's like, but that's the way it should go. It's like, I made the call because this, or you should have made the call because this like that to me seems second nature, but your boy Blake Whiteheart going back to the game here needs a follow. First of all, he's building up a falling over there, but he says this title, God doesn't call the qualified. He qualifies the called. Wow, that's a line.

Beast mode, six, four. This is what he's working with down here. You know, the combine, you know, muscles showing. He got the girl going for him. So what do we think about Blake Whiteheart here? Just sixteen hundred dollars. We got a real projection on this guy tonight. This could be the spot. What do you think? His reception, I can always is receiving yards. Prop is three and a half. Slight juice on the over. He played thirty nine percent of snaps.

I'm not sure it's the right slate for it, but yeah, I mean, what? It takes one touchdown maybe. Probably not for me. Is it for you? I think we're definitely getting him into the pool tonight. Yeah, like this guy's got to go in there at that price, and we just cheer. What was the guy the other day? First, we had Raridon. That one worked. Not fully, but worked some. And then the other guy was, I mean, Higbee was pretty low. Wasn't Higbee this price?

Higbee was low. I forget who the other guy was, though. He was like two hundred dollars, where like a zero would like maybe be enough. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, and then a freaking the other tight end caught the touchdown, I think, or something like the third stringer. I was so tilted. Hooper. Yeah, I knew it. Hooper caught the touchdown instead. I was like, come on. Yeah, that's right. That was good.

We always like to mess with the tight ends a little bit, but people are playing like it's the other side. Washington's obviously way better. You know, if you could just take one out of the three or one of the four that I'm not going to put Whiteheart lumped into, I'll take Washington. But as the guy that I would pick is like the underdog guy, but Whiteheart would be the guy for $2,000 bucks cheaper that you could just get.

Hopefully he catches some passes, see what happens. But like you said earlier, you could see a snowflake. Well, give him his one catch for three point five yard. Give him give him a four yard catch. Give the prop people an over. And give him the points that he's required that's better than a zero with a snowflake. So I just think on this slate, it just depends on how you want to build it out.

But I think a lot of people will need one guy down low because they're playing Rodgers, Warren, Watson, Judkins, and whatever. But it's just playing for a lot of splits that way. So kickers and D hoop, I'll kick it over to you. It looks like the... Steelers side like you mentioned Steelers heavy it's no different there but we are showing like pretty high ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, more than usual on kickers and these tonight so your thoughts on that.

Yeah I mean I'm always a little skeptical whenever the defenses are showing some ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ because, you know, typically I'm always under on the defenses personally but even so like a lot of times. It ends up being higher than we're even anticipating and showing. So we're showing right around thirty. I wouldn't be surprised if it's higher on that Steelers defense and their real price at $5,000. So for me personally, I'll be below the field on those guys.

And then kickers, I'm always, always good with the kickers, especially like low scoring games. So probably going to be lower on the defenses, which I typically am. I think they will be higher owned than we're even anticipating and And then obviously good with the kickers as always. Yeah, could just see a bunch of kicking back and forth. Could see a captain kicker tonight maybe. You got Boswell almost $8,000. So if people are playing for Ironmouth at $8,400, it's $7,800 for Boswell.

We've seen plenty of those slates. So title anything from you on kickers and defenses? Yeah, I don't think that's craziest to put either at the captain. I like him a lot because I think any Watson or pretty much anyone but Jalen Warren, like it's about seven points you'd be giving up from the quarterbacks to that one play. Like we can see a seven point change in NFL for sure.

So I think the ability to leave chunks of money with them over some of the higher price ones are very viable. Both offenses, when they get in the red zone, can struggle. Kickers right there, I think these coaches are going to play more conservative and take their points when the opportunity comes instead of push it, which is good for the kickers and the defenses if you let up less touchdowns and touchdowns.

Yeah less touchdowns less points are scored and you have the ability to score more points so ideally overweight on all four and it's easier to leave chunks of money um and then yeah thinking about the game it makes me like it even more so ownership is there but when you are playing them it's easier to leave money or five one builds like when I'm playing I can play Boswell Steelers defense and just load up and tell myself Steelers win twenty to three or something and uh and five ones I think that makes a lot of sense when you're playing the defenses Yeah, I like that call out there for sure.

The Steelers D, like Hoop said earlier too, could get steamed even more than Boswell just because I think when you think – the thing I think about there is like the Warren factor. And so when Warren up top, people want to play him. When they're not on that, it's like another way to get access to it. A lot of people like to do the running back DST correlationCorrelationCorrelation describes how two players' fantasy scores move together. Positively correlated players tend to have big games at the same time, usually because one player's success directly adds points for the other.When you build a tournament lineup, ask which of your players need the same thing to happen. The more of them that do, the higher your lineup's ceiling.Full explanation ↗ thing even on showdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗. So it's like I just end up seeing that more.

And I also think people that go Warren up top, yes, the five ones and the four twos where they play for the lower scoring game probably can still put Boswell in. But I think a lot more people tend to go to the quarterback and the defense and stuff like that, where it's saying like, well, if it's going to be Warren getting me touchdowns is how they think of it. I'm not going to need field goals.

Another thing is we got to remember next time Chicago is on a slate that Ben Johnson trying to score a game. So Santos might take a seat for a little bit because It started a couple times. You're like, oh, maybe he's going to kick this here. Nope, not going to happen. So got to remember stuff like that. The only other thing that I thought about, maybe we mentioned it throughout a couple times, but just not heavily. I saw it in the chat throughout.

It was about like the Joey Porter Jr. Trade, right? So, you know, get... That news out there, the Cowboys pick up another, another piece, but I think they showed it yesterday. It was like, uh, what is it? Pickens Porter jr. And like one of their, like one of their tackles or something like that. They've just basically grabbed all the guys off the Steelers. So the Cowboys continue to pick up the Steelers pieces, but anything on that from you title, any final thoughts on this slate from you?

No, he's been solid, Joey Porter, in the PFF stuff. I mean, the Cowboys just need anyone. Like you said, what, twelve seconds left and you allow a twenty eight yard completion to set up like a field goal. I'd be finding four new guys to play DB and try them all out because that team is struggling in the secondary. Yeah, someone said it right away. He's a clown. Good riddance. All right. Anything else on this slate title from you? Anything else you want to add?

No, just looking at FanDuel, Hoop always does it quick. But, I mean, Jalen Warren is the third highest price with the highest projection. So it's naturally him. And then the quarterbacks always get more ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ at MVP. But Warren first, Watson, Rogers, if you're playing any MVP but them, I think that's definitely contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗. Hoop can take it from there. Yeah, a couple – A couple of wild prices. Roman Wilson, $8,400. $8,400 for for Roman Wilson. That definitely is is an outlier price.

On the other end, Concepcion, $5,800. So a little cheaper there. So you're getting a bargain. Butkins over $10,000. That's a lot. I will say that one one one.

Positive right I'm gonna I'm gonna come full circle on buckins all right I'm gonna give him a compliment he had never heard it before besides the one week last year where he went off his game fits FanDuel scoring better all right all right yeah is that a ownership ownership will probably be higher Because of that. Yeah, he's getting a lot of ownership. Not a click for me. If you are interested, his game does fit FanDuel scoring much better. We talk about it all the time, man.

Going into the dog pound, I don't care if you're Aaron Rodgers or not. It doesn't matter. You see all kinds of great quarterbacks. Go in there and you can have struggles. So it could be a thing if that's the case and this game just flips, you can make it two and a half, make the Browns win by three instead of what the spread says the Steelers by three on median and on paper, I'm just saying with spreads.

But it's like, if you do that, it would change things up a little bit. Doesn't change that Warren still gonna be a workhorse and get the usage, but that is the thing. Hoop, a hoop is a full circle. So you're always bound to come around on anything that we talk about, but that's a good one, man. I'm saying if you're into that sort of thing, that's the argument for him. We need to get those hoops up behind you. Where are those hoops at?

Actually, they might still be back there.

Someone said coming in late is agreeing with title he obviously wasn't here off the top he says Warren's kind of like bijan full circle talk about it set it from the top now we're ending in that way it's fine like if you're playing tonight you got forty percent Warren and run it just go with it yeah especially if you like them um but if you're just getting that like again the projections are going to push that anyway like if you're playing with an optimizer let's say you're using SaberSim and you're using Sabre score and you've got portfolio diversification turned on and all of that.

I mean, you're just probably getting that because the projections are going to push it that way. It makes sense. I'd be looking to think about more, you know, what you're doing with the rest of your lineups. And then also I would talk, I talk about this all the time, but I would investigate what those lineups actually look like. And that's where I spend a lot more of my time.

It's like if every single lineup has Warren, Watson, Rogers, Metcalf, and a couple of punts, it's like, if that wins tonight, Congrats to you. It's like very rare that I'll ever even be possible to win on a site like that. But it's like, again, I think that would be a massive, massive chop. So that'd be the problem there for that. But Hoop, anything else you want to add, man? Any final thoughts from you?

No, I mean, the only thing I'll say, like these games, people just assume it's going to be a nasty, grinded out sort of game. And it might be, but it was a couple years ago. It might have been these same two teams. I know it was the Steelers and someone else. It was like the lowest. Was it the Bengals? It was like the lowest total. It was like a thirty total or something on a Thursday night. And it might have been two.

It was definitely a Thursday night game. Maybe not that one then. It was like the lowest total in the last X amount of years. And they ended up scoring a shit ton of points. So it can definitely happen. But, you know, build your teams accordingly, how you think this game's going to go, especially if you're, you're hand building. But yeah, week four is here and, you know, excited to get it going. Was this, this is what new one said earlier. Is it last year?

Yeah. Yeah. Flacco started that game and it nuked thirty four thirty one. Yeah, it had a total of like thirty. It was like the lowest total in what might have been twenty nine or something. It was insanely low total and they just immediately got to scoring right out of the gate. I think it was a different that one did happen, but I feel like it was like a backup on the other side that actually scored points early.

Fire Moore, two percent ownedOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, got two touchdowns. That's when you want that to happen. Tonight, we got him right around two percent in the captain. So if that's your spot. One thing about those lineups that I always talk about is just you got to be thinking about the rest of the build because the Fire Moore lineup that fits perfectly is the one that's also duped. So people say, yeah, but I got him at two percent captain. But all the lineups are identical.

It's like there is a balance of what you're doing there with that. Yeah. Shout out to Marie Don easy, man. Says hoop title. Tim always been around for years in the, in the YouTube chat streets. Always appreciate you, man. This too. Oh yeah. We can end on this. I think we're done. So whoever wants to stick around and can, we're just going to shoot the shit now, but man, the, the left bell one, was that real?

He said, man, we were out there trying to win super bowls and building cities. And then somebody posted the stats and it was like the first year he won a super bowl. They were in the playoffs, seven playoff wins or something. And then all of a sudden after that, It's all downhill. It is. It is. It is just so funny to look back and it's like, they never changed anything. They had like the same team forever and nothing ever changed. And they're just the most mediocre team.

Yeah. Yeah. I got my Superbowl. Let's let's move on to the next thing. Oh man. That's hilarious. All right, here they go. What are the game snacks tonight?

Game snacks yeah we're bringing food takes back they know it's the end of the show and they're sticking around and they're leaving they don't care no you gotta you gotta be more specific like are you going with this or you're not like I mean for me personally I don't know I mean uh probably eating leftover whatever leftovers are in the fridge they are kids they got sports every night so we're on the fly so whatever's available Let's see. What's in there?

I think there might be pizza, maybe leftover pizza or something. I'm not sure. It's some hockey pucks. He's just going downhill, boys. He's breaking. Football season comes around, breaks the diet. Usually it's just like a nice six-ounce white chicken breast with a little bit of rice on the side. I mean, I try to keep it good for lunch. I don't eat breakfast as I do the intermediate fasting. I eat dinner at six p.m. Eastern, and then I don't eat lunch.

Lunch until noon so it's like eighteen hours and then I'll eat something decent for lunch and then I don't really give a shit what I eat for dinner so I'm more flexible with the dinner stuff but for lunch it's typically like a salad or something like that but for lunch I'm more open like whatever whatever I eat I eat so I can't it can't be perfect like title on this stuff all the way through Titled, they said he looks like a pizza rolls guy.

I don't think so. No, he ain't eating pizza rolls. Who said he's doing the intermediate fasting? There's advanced, there's basic, and there's intermediate. He's talking about intermittent fasting. Oh, that's what it's called? All right, then there it is. We knew what he was saying. Advanced levels next. He goes from rookie fasting to intermediate up to advanced. I've always said intermediate, so I better crack that. Thank you for pointing that out. Making sure of that. Tyler, you got any snacks tonight?

They said that they think me eating some ketchup-lazed chips, which those are a Canadian thing, but not my thing. What about the everything chips? You like those things? They kind of have everything in there? Oh, yeah. Huh? You're called All Dressed. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, those are good chips. You got to get Ruffles. Ruffles All Dressed are where it's at. Yeah. Okay. All right. Yeah, those are good chips. Titles like this is like a foreign language for everybody. Like, chips, what are you doing?

Yeah, we don't put that in our house because it'd be eight. So, yeah, no, we don't keep that in there. Trail Mix, I think, is the snack we have. I'll make – the wife's out of town, though, so I've been at the casino and then eating out a little bit. So I think I'm going to make beef bulgogi tonight with some rice. With the wife gone, you're grinding the poker. There's no way you're sticking to a super healthy diet.

But at the casino, I can get a medium rare steak with a loaded baked potato. They got good food. So an omelet, that's usually what I get at the casino. So I'm still picking my spots.

Yeah it's always been interesting to me when you're sitting around like a cash gameCash GameA cash game is a contest that pays a large share of the field, usually close to half, the same flat prize. Fifty-fifties, double-ups and head-to-heads are the common cash games.Treat cash games as the steady base of your bankroll. Use one safe core across your cash entries on a slate, and save riskier ideas for tournaments.Full explanation ↗ and buddy just has an omelet roll up and he said I know you got to eat and you can't leave your table but it's like somebody else is there being like this stanking ass egg omelet and I'm sitting there trying to play my aces and this guy's over here chowing down with some omelet breath and all this other stuff over there it's all part of the the leveling get them tilted get them tilted yeah exactly yeah a little edge yeah for sure Oh, man.

All right. Well, this was a good one, guys. Appreciate you. Going to get back to it. Let's have a good night tonight. If you guys want to check out shipitnation.com, make sure you get over to the site. All of the promos are there. The annual, you can get the monthly, just whatever you want to check out. All the stuff will be up there. We'll have the Slate Station, the Stone 2.0 point out with the hand builder. The Discord will be popping.

And then we'll go from there for title for hoop. And for myself, ToeTagginTambo. Good luck in your contest tonight. Let's ship it.