NFL Week 1 – Contrarian Constructions | Main Slate | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Roster Construction

Yeah, so kind of as I talked about with the lead-in, there's a lot of good plays at quarterback, certainly. I think the interesting thing is starting up top, like how Josh Allen is going to be. This is a contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ show, so I'd be remiss not to at least mention him. Brutal spot to open the season, but man... I mean, he's going to be like one, two percent ownedOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, you know, lower than five at least. And that's interesting, at least to think about in large GPPsGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗.

But on paper, you know, someone like Joe Burrow looks a lot better. He's got all his weapons. He's healthy. I like that game for offense. So, yeah, I think like up top, Burrow is going to be the guy that gets more ownership. I think Allen is just like a large field GPP guy. Do you yourself have any interest in Allen? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think you got to have interest in Allen. I was going to get there too. Yeah.

I mean, he's the highest priced quarterback for sure over there. Um, Yeah, I mean, Allen, though, the problem with Allen, and they said it this morning, and I'll reiterate it, you never know who to stack with him, right? So if you get Allen and he gets Forty, like you could stack him with two of his players and they may not get ten combined, and then you're not dead.

I mean, you're dead to win the Mills, but you make men cash or something like that. Allen obviously is a great play in something like this. I wouldn't be opposed to going naked with him, though. Yeah, I'll say that just to intervene. I'd be surprised. If he has a monster game like that and DJ Moore doesn't have at least a good game, like he hasn't had that guy.

And not that like DJ Moore is Ja'Marr Chase, but heard real good things about him in camp. I think he's the clear number one. So I'm not sure if I agree with that coming into this year. Clear number one, but you also have a clear top, I'd say, three cornerback on the other side. And then the Lassiter as well on the other side of that defense as well. Hey, this defense is lights out.

And that's why you're going to get them at, what, definitely sub-five percent on both sites. But, yeah, definitely in play tournament. Who are some other kind of sleepers that you're looking at? I mean, obviously you've got Herbert, Burrow, Hertz up there. I think Hertz is going to come in lower, way under-owned. But, once again, he's like Allen to me. In the sense that who are you going to stack him with?

You've got a clear-cut number one now with Davante Adams, but can you just go skinny with him and Davante Adams? Can you get Barkley? How are you playing Jalen Hurts today? I'm not playing a lot of Hurts. I like Davante Adams Smith a lot. I mean, what's not to like about him? I think he's way too cheap for what should be a monster role this year.

I don't love this game, though, and I'm not a huge Hurts guy, so I'll get to summon one-fifty, but – Other than that, if I'm hand-building lineups, I'm not playing any hurts. Not that I think he's a bad play. You can only play so many guys. There's a lot of good plays on this slate. Is he someone you have a strong stance on? No, not Hurts. I think the rushing is there, right?

But if I'm stacking Hurts, I'm cutting it off at Davante Adams and possibly Goedert. I'm not stacking him with Barkley. I'm not stacking him with some guy named Dontavian Wicks. I'm not stacking him with Makai Lemon, anybody like that. It's Smith for sure and potentially Goedert if I got there. That makes sense.

Talk to me a little bit about, and I know we're going to have a difference of opinion here, because I'm going to give you a ham hot take here in a minute, but Lamar Jackson going into the Colts, he's not going to get much ownership at all. We're showing right around five and a half percent. So talk to me about Lamar Jackson and how you're playing him today against this Colts defense.

Another guy that I don't love, but because you despise him so much, it makes it seem like I like him. I mean, I'm just not going out of my way to tell people don't play Lamar Jackson or Derrick Henry this week. That doesn't mean that I like those guys. I just don't have it in my soul to that kind of spite to just want them to not do good. For no reason at all. I'm all kidding aside. I don't mind those guys like this game.

I think could play out in a lot of different ways. Certainly I like the Colts offense here. So that in turn makes me like some pieces from Baltimore, but there's a lot of opportunity costs going with Lamar. I'm not going to sit here and say he's my favorite quarterback, but what about that offense makes you dislike it so much? Man, I think the Ravens offense, once again, I could be pointing wrong. I need to look and see how much I have because it's not much.

But I think the Ravens offense is way overinflated today, not that they're going to get tons of ownership. You got three brand-new offensive linemen for this Ravens team right up the interior, DeForest Bunkner, This Colts defense is pretty good, and you've got two really good corners. Like if Javerius Ward wants to play, and it looks like he wants to play the first game of the season anyway, he's been pretty good in the past.

Sauce Gardner, I never thought Sauce was that great, but you've got Sauce Gardner who's a pretty good corner on the other side as well. I'm out on Lamar Jackson. I'm out on Derrick Henry. I know we're not the running backs yet. I'll just go ahead and say it. Zay Flowers would be the one Ravens that I have a little bit of interest in. I think he can get in some space over there. Colts, Lou Anarumo. What about Jacobs Lane? No, hell no.

I wouldn't play Jacobs Lane with your money. Don't play Jacobs Lane. Why? It's not like he's going to be owned. I mean, I don't understand your takes here. Like, That strong. There won't be a Ravens on the winner in the Mills. I mean, I could be wrong. Once again, I'm just telling you my opinion, my take of it, is this Ravens team is going into a buzzsaw today. I'm going to have some dollars on the Colts, you know, to win the game.

So what about this then? What about overloading the Colts and not playing Baltimore? Because I think the Colts are in a good spot. Yeah, I got a bunch of JT. I don't know. I don't have much any dimes, but I got a bunch of JT, a little bit of Warren. I don't like the receivers for the Colts. So for me on the Colts, it's JT and it's Warren, but we're not there yet. I think the Ravens are in a bad spot.

That's just one of my many takes I got today. I got a bunch of the Colts defense, and I'm out on the Ravens outside of Zay Flowers. I get it. I mean, you can only play so many guys, so it's like – Any given team, I'm most Likely not to be in on them because, again, there's so many teams in play. Go ahead. Sorry. Not to mention they got a brand-new head coach and some guy named Declan calling their offensive plays.

You don't ever trust a guy named Declan to call your plays in the NFL. Matt, this is going to be a bloodbath. Take some of all that money you went in from the MLB streets. Get on the Colts with me, man. Get on the Colts bandwagon with me. It's not going to be pretty for Lamar and company. I respect it. I like the hard takes. All right, here we go.

Any other quarterbacks that you could potentially see in shooting up the leaderboard at the end of the day? I saw some Geno Smith chatter. I got a name for you. Okay, let's go. It's not Geno Smith. It's not a guy I expect to win the slate based on his score alone. And I'm sure you're going to laugh at me here, but I don't care. Why not Kirk Cousins? I like the spot a lot. Jenty, I don't think is fully healthy. They just came out a couple days ago.

He was going to play. I've talked a bunch about how I don't think he's fully healthy. I like Mike Washington. He was a sleeper I've liked in year-long leagues. Everyone wants to play Michael Mayer for good reason and Trey Tucker, and I like those guys a lot. Why not play five-kick Cousins with them? Are you going to be shocked if he throws three touchdowns here? He's not going to run for anything.

He's probably not going to throw for four hundred yards, but Two fifty and three against Miami at $5,000. Sign me up. Yeah, I mean, you know me well. I'm not going to play. Yeah, of course you're not. I don't want any Cousins, to be honest. No one is. Yeah. I mean, I could say a name that's even darker than cousin. And the reason why I don't. For Malik Willis, for that matter.

Because I think that they're just going to turn around and hand it to the running back. I don't care if it's Ashton Gentry. I don't care if it's Mike Washington. I don't care if it's who it is. They're going to turn around and hand it to the running back. Same thing with the Dolphins. They're going to ground and pound. You know, Hoops said it this morning or somebody said it this morning. That clock is just going to bleed. So, running backs.

Yeah, I don't know. I mean, it could. But, like, again, I don't expect him to throw for four hundred yards. If they're running successfully, that opens things up. Like, this is a new staff. I mean, they're trying to win this game. They're starting Cousins for a reason at the beginning of the year. Of course. Again, I'm not... It's a price thing. You know, he's so cheap. It's an ownership thing. And it's the fact that people are playing his weapons and they're not playing him.

That's the big thing. Like... I don't know. I just, you know, I'm probably wrong. Any other quarterbacks? Who's the other quarterback? Who's the other quarterbacks you were going to mention? Oh, um, I think the other guy, well, there's, there's, you know, a bunch more, but, um, I think Baker Mayfield looks good opposite Burrow in that Tampa Cincy game. I don't think he's going to get a ton of love and I like him.

Um, You know, I think Tyler Shook opposite Gibbs in that game, although he'll probably get some love. And I like the Minnesota game, so both quarterbacks there. How about you? What's your takes? Yeah, I mean, to me it's the big boys, right? Like Tyler Shook, I love him. Lions missing two safeties. We'll get to the receivers and tight ends here in a minute, but Shook's in a great spot. Seven-point dog. He's in a great spot. I got a bunch of Tyler Shuck.

Obviously, they got off Joey B. Just the usuals. I don't have any hot takes on Hoot and Rogers, Jacobs Brissett, Bryce Young. I'll leave Bryce Young to you. Dimes, Cam Ward. No, I'm not playing any of those people. The one guy I would say, and I wrote him up over at Shippenation.com, is Geno Smith.

And I'll tell you the reason why I like Geno Smith, and this is for Milly-type plays only, is that the Titans defense, especially on FanDuel, the three-two hundred bucks is going to be right around twenty-five, thirty percent. Middle linebackers out getting in wrecks, being concussed, he's out. I think Geno Smith with Garrett Wilson, with dump-offs to Breece Hall, with Adonai Mitchell coming back home to Nashville, watch out for that Jets. It's passing attacks. Someone put it in the chat.

I don't hate it in a large field style format. Give me some Geno Smith to get over three hundred. I don't know. One of us is cutting in and out here. I don't know. One of us is cutting out in and out really bad here. Yeah, I don't know who it is. Let's fix that. One second. Cool. All right. Let's move on. Unless you have anything else on quarterback? No, I think that's good. All right. Moving on to the next position.

It's the running back position. Talk to me a little bit about this running back. Jameer Gibbs. Jameer Gibbs is going to come in super high on. You see it there over forty percent. I chain Taylor. But John Robinson could be an interesting takes. James Cook. Talk to me a little bit about this position. We got all the big boy running backs on the slate almost. CMC played the other night. But interested to get your take.

Give me some takes on this running back position. Who you got at the top of your list. And give me some guys that you're going to get you to the top of the milliliter board. Yeah, so I think the top of the list has got to be, obviously, Gibbs. I mean, he looks great. It's not about just fading someone because they're high-owned. It's about how you play them. So Gibbs is a priority play in all formats.

He's like, you know, fifteen hundred, probably too cheap. Doesn't mean he's going to smash you, but he's in a good spot. You know, their main backups hurt. He's already phenomenal. Like, he's, it's hard not to love Gibbs here. I also like Bijan.

And I don't think Bijan, well, I know Bijan won't be half his own as Gibbs but I wonder how well Bijan gets because people love the Steelers in this game I'm just I'm not a believer in the Steelers I don't think McCarthy is a great coach their defense is old I know Atlanta has quarterback problems here but they got Bijan and they got weapons and Bijan is a big play waiting to happen I've read this book too many times before where Bijan is so low-ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ and he has a monster game because he's really good, or vice versa.

But I'm going to play the contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ side here and play both Gibbs and Bijan. And I like A-Chan a lot, too. I mean, this game, I think, has a ton of fantasy upside. He's too cheap. Their offense isn't good, but neither is their defense. And A-Chan is an elite receiving weapon out of the backfield, so I think he can get there just on passing game work alone. Those are my big three. I like Taylor. If you wanted to replace Bijan, I would get it.

But for me, I think that's the clear big three. And then there's a drop off. Who do you got? Who do you got higher? Bijan or Aachen? Aachen. Give me Aachen over Bijan. All right. Outside of the big three. And you have Bijan ahead of JT? Yes, I do. But I think that's very close. We're showing B. John at fifteen percent. I think he actually comes in a little bit lower than that. But let's just say in the five dollar, like how how much B.

John like how much B. John do you want versus the field? Um. I, you know. And that type of contest, um. I think I want to be like maybe a time and a half over the field on him. There's a lot of good plays and I'm more thinking about playing him in higher stakes stuff than I am that, that particular question. Got it.

I, what about some of these, what about some of these lower tier second tier, if you will, Derek Henry, please do not click his name. Belman save your six to seven hundred bucks on D hand and find you somebody else. But who are some of these? I'll call them second tier running backs where you're going. Whenever you do this, you know it makes me want to play whoever it is you're talking bad about. So, yeah, I don't love Henry either.

I'm just telling you, Derek Henry's not a good play today. Yeah, this range is good, though. Like, I don't love Jeanty because I don't think he's really healthy, but he's cheap for his upside in a game I like. Saquon looks good. Omari and Hampton looks real good in a game the Chargers should be cruising. You know, Chase Brown in that really good environment. This is a good range. You talked about Brees Hall earlier. I think he's an interesting play, a little bit cheaper than those guys.

I don't have like one guy in this range that I like above the rest, except for HN. That's my guy here who's somehow in this range, even though there's no way he should be. That's kind of why I like him. You know what I mean? Yeah, I mean, HN, seven Ks too cheap for him, even though they do. That's crazy. He's going to get the ball. Their offensive line is actually pretty good, and the first-round draft pick on an offensive lineman.

This Raiders team, I mean, has been bad for years, right? Max Crosby and company should get ran on. Yeah, I mean, A-chan's going to get, you know, twenty-plus carries for sure, so he's a great spot. Why don't you – let me ask you this. Why don't you like Jeanty at sixty-six hundredth? I like him. If you think he's fully healthy, I don't. And I think Washington is going to work in there. And I think they're going to throw more than you do.

I like him. I think he's too cheap for his upside, but I don't like him more than the field does. Cause I think there are reasons to not like him. Oh, let's talk a little bit about let's talk a little bit about Bucky Irving, looking at these inactives that we just got. Sean Tucker is officially listed out. So you're down to probably two running backs. So you got Bucky Irvin, who's going to come in at solo owned. $5,700.

Does that I mean, does Sean Tucker obviously last year got the goal on work? I think he had what? Nine plus touchdown rushes or something like that and got all the inside the teamwork. Bucky Irvin, $5,700. Does he shoot up your board at all with Sean Tucker out or that doesn't move the needle for you? Yeah, I mean, it's hard not to like him more because of the goal line potential work. But I don't know. Gainwell is still there.

So, like, I think that he gets a lot of work today. Am I off? I'm not, like, loving Bucky Irving because I've heard him mention a few times. And I'm generally a Bucky fan, and I like this game. But I don't think he's some smash play now, do you? He's $7,900 over on FanDuel. So it's a little bit more expensive over there. I think you, I think you got to have a little bit of them.

I like the, I like the Bengals defense, but yeah, I mean, if you're, if you're going to have a shootout in Cincinnati, I think, yeah, I think, I think Bucky squarely in play, he can obviously catch it. His Oregon ducks stink. But other than that, he, I mean, I think he's in a good spot. Like what's the split going to be like, surely the goodness, he's going to get at least sixty, sixty five, seventy percent of the work.

And some guy named Kenneth Gainwell and his fifth team. I mean, they're not going to like feature him, are they? I mean, I don't think they're featuring him, but he's good. And like, I think he gets work today. Do you not? He's so good. He's been on five teams. Yeah, I mean, he's not like a number one running back, but he's a guy that works in the systems. And, yeah, I mean, you could look at that both ways, though. Like, yeah, he's been on five teams.

He's so good. Like, you're making that sound awful, and I get that. But you could also say, like, five teams have wanted him. You know what I'm saying? Yeah. All right, next, let's look at – Where is he? I don't even see him in here. Travis Etienne. So, officially, Alvin Kamara is out. Etienne is the clear lead back there. Shouldn't be splitting carries with – obviously not going to split him with Kamara. Not going to get much else from backup behind him.

He can also catch passes, as we saw in Jacksonville. His first game with his hometown team. I know it's in Detroit. But what about Travis Etienne with no Alvin Kamara? Yeah, I think he's definitely in play here. I mean – The no Camara thing looms large here. I like this game. And I think he can get there in any type of game script, which is all you can really ask for. Yeah, I think they're going to get him the ball quite a bit today.

I like Olave a lot. But after that, I think it's all about like the three. I know there's like Vele and... Lance you know unlike the border but the top three is obviously shook etn and uh olave so what about what about etn versus swift versus bucky irvin all within two hundred dollars of each other give or take I like etn the most like kind of by far All right, let's talk about Swift because neither one of us mentioned him.

I love DeAndre Swift coming into the season. They have a killer offensive line, very good. He's coming in at what percent? He's coming in at right around ten percent. I think he'll be a little bit higher on FanDuel. Why are we not clicking DeAndre Swift's name? Because you can click Trevor Etienne name, Travis. For two hundred dollars less. Yeah. Yeah. Any other running backs that we haven't touched on that you want to talk about?

Yeah, I mean, I'm going to not even be a homer, but a guy I mentioned earlier that I think is going to be really low-owned and I think has potential upside is Quinshawn Judkins. Yeah. The Browns have a really low team total, and they're expected to get plastered here. And I get that, and that's probably the Likely outcome. But there's so much unknown coming into the season. And what if that's not how the game plays out?

I think the Browns defense is still going to be really good. They're dirt cheap. And they're going to feature Judkins and Concepcion. They're going to get those guys the ball. Judkins is going to be a true lead back without anyone else really working in, in my opinion. You get him on the right side of a game script at $5,500 at like one percent ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. Yeah.

I mean, we're talking about real contrarian plays, but I play him in single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ or like a cash gameCash GameA cash game is a contest that pays a large share of the field, usually close to half, the same flat prize. Fifty-fifties, double-ups and head-to-heads are the common cash games.Treat cash games as the steady base of your bankroll. Use one safe core across your cash entries on a slate, and save riskier ideas for tournaments.Full explanation ↗. Obviously not. But yeah, I think there's like multiple touchdown upside at a real cheap tag and no ownership. So that's the like low on guy I'm going to call out. So at $5,500 and one hundred and fifty hundred fifty teams like how much Junkins do you want? How many how many of Quinn Sean Junkins shares do you want? At least five percent.

It's five percent. Yeah. I think I feel. I feel that way about Chubb Hubbard myself. Same price, right? And he's $5,800 on on FanDuel. I mean, he had I think he had like seventeen touches in their last game against the Rams in the playoffs. That was with Rico Dowdle. Now you got Jonathan Brooks. I just think this is Canales's guy as well. Fifty five and $5,800 bucks. He's cheap. He's a way to get a piece of that game.

Like if you wanted to stack Colston Loveland with Chubb, I think that's a great play. I know Chuba's won our guy Tambo a bunch of money in the past. Give me some Chubb Hubbard. Fifty-five, $5,800 bucks. I like him on both sites. More so on FanDuel as he's not – he can catch passes, but he's not a true pass catcher. His Oklahoma State Sooners got a dub yesterday, so you know his juices are flowing. So, yeah. What about Jeremiah Love? I'm out on Jeremiah Love.

Interested to get your take on him, if you like him at all. I'm out. Big dog. I don't think he sees a ton of work. Like, he's really good, and maybe everyone's surprised, and he just has a monster game, but I'm good. Let's go over to FanDuel for a second, where it's going to be a little bit different.

I'm going to go over here to the – I'm going to go over here to the ownership projection because what I want to talk about is I want to talk about $4,900 MarShawn Lloyd, who is going to hit a lot of optimals because he is the RB one for this game. Tough matchup in Minnesota. Let me find him real quick, but I'm going to pull him up as you're talking about. Talk to me a little bit about Marshall Lloyd.

If you have any interest on DraftKings and what your interest is on FanDuel. I do have some interest on draft games. I think there's a lot of unknown there, and I like this game. I think there's points in this game, so that alone makes me interested in what should be the number one running back for the pack. Again, I don't think he's some stud, but I like the Packers this year. They consolidated their wide-out room.

I'm huge on Matthews Golden, so I like this offense, and Lloyd being the number one de facto RB right now has me interested. I'm not going to be shocked if, like, one of the other guys comes in and just steals all the work. Cause it's not like Lloyd's a proven commodity, but we're talking large field tournamentsGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗ here. So yeah, I have some interest definitely on FanDuel and on DraftKings. Taking Jameer Gibbs out, give me your top three running backs for large field tournaments.

Taking Gibbs out, you said? Yep. Yep. So A-Chan for sure. I just, he's, he might be the most underpriced player on the board, like in my opinion. So. HN, I like ETN a lot. And I like Bijan, man. Like, Bijan priced right by Gibbs. Spot isn't nearly as good, but yeah, give me Bijan there. You're right, though, man. Every time we count Bijan out, he just goes for like one ninety two and three. You know what I mean? Like just something crazy like that.

I get it. The spot stinks. I'm not a Stefanski fan, but. He's going to get Bijan the ball here. I know that. All Stefanski does is win in a Heins field when they're in the playoffs with all my boy Baker. So yeah, anything else on running backs or can we get over to wide receivers? I think we can get over. Okay. Let's get over there now. Similar to the running back position, we got Ja'Marr Chase.

That's going to lead the way over at the wide receiver position. Amon Ross St. Brown is going to be right behind him. $7,800 for Ja'Marr Chase. $7,500 for Amon Ross St. Brown. So talk to me a little bit about this group. Wide receivers, you know, let's talk top tier first. Who are your top tier wide receivers? Yeah, I think obviously Chase is probably a class of his own.

I don't think he's a must-play because of the guys that are in other positions, Gibbs, Bijan, who I like, but Chase is a tough fate, a fate at your own risk for sure. Amon Ra in a game we like a lot. And then Justin Jefferson, yeah.

Know I think there's I don't really separate like I think it's chase is in his own tier slightly above like the next tier but the next year for me is a group of like five guys though um the next year for me after chase is amanra Jefferson nico davante smith and olave all those guys are in the same tier for me if you want to say amanra is in a tier like above those other guys sure Who do you think scores more points today, the Bengals and Bucs or the Lions and Saints?

Bengals and Bucs. Combined. Oh, really? Gosh, hopefully one of us wins the Mills because we're way off with each other. I think this Lions-Saints game just shoots out. I think the defense is in that Bengals-Bucks game. They obviously got some really good offenses, but the defenses are much better. Yeah, honestly, I'm not too heavy on either. Saints defense is trash. You just asked me which game I like more. Okay. You didn't ask me if I was super high on the Burks.

No, I said which game I score more points. Yeah, and I think the Burks-Bengals. I said which game you think I score more points. I know, and I said the Burks-Bengals game, but that doesn't mean that that's, like, my favorite game on the slate. You know what I mean? I just don't love the St. Lyons game either. I like Gibbs. I like Olave.

But I think, like, for me, I get why you feel that way, but I think that that's kind of the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ take on this slate is that game is going to smash. Am I wrong? I mean, probably. The total's fifty-fifty-one. I mean, yeah, but... I mean, there's just, you got to play it different ways, right? You over stack it. You get different dudes. You played Jawan and Amon Ron instead of Jameer. Yeah. Jameer Gibbs.

I mean, I just think the defenses it's indoors, although the weather's good in Cincinnati as well. I mean, I'm just saying both of these defenses are bad. Tyler Shuck is going to Chuck and Jared Goff has never met a pass. He didn't like either. So, I think it's going to be points of plenty and that's why they play the game. But I mean, that, that's my stance.

That's where I'm kind of leading down today as well as just over stacking this Lions and Saints game as well. Yeah, I get it. I'll say this just to answer that question, maybe, you know, thinking back on it, but just to my point that like, I don't love either game in my, I'm playing one lineup in that mega million and, I have two. I have Gibbs and Olave from this game, the Lions game. I have nothing from the Bengals game. So take with that what you will.

Yeah. We just went through running back. I didn't say this. Who's the best running back at $6,800 bucks? I'll go back over there. I'm assuming that's DraftKings. I mean, I would I don't want to answer for Belman, but go ahead. I would I'll say five, two hundred more dollars and get to a chain. I agree. But if you can't, Hampton. Hampton, yeah. All right, let's get back over to receivers. You talk about that top tier.

You listed Chris Olave below Nico, below Davante Adams. So is that how you would kind of rank them? Like you have them down there at the – I would say at the bottom end of that tier? Who is that? Chris Olave. Okay. I like Olave a lot. I think he's in that second tier after Chase. I mean, he's the stud. There's so much. He's too cheap. I like him. He's a cog in the machine type. Let's talk that Higgins gets. I think he's going to get some ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗.

We currently have him at. All these guys are right in the teens. Let's double digits. T-Lad, Garrett Wilson, Zay Flowers, Tet, Parker Washington. I'll cut it off there. Any of those guys stand out for you? I think all those guys look good here. I mean, the mid-range wideout is a really, really good range. It's loaded. I mean, you talk about guys like Jamison Williams in that game. You like a lot. Egbuka in the Cincy game. Higgins, who you mentioned.

I think we're past the days of, like, sneaking up on anyone playing Higgins instead of Chase, personally. Like, they're both going to get love. But Chase will be higher-owned, and he's more expensive. Yeah. So that in itself has you a little intrigued with Higgins. You can certainly play them both in a Burrow stack. I mean, there's just a lot of good plays here. I like Matthews Golden, who's a little bit cheaper. A lot of good plays here.

We're going to get down to the bad Packers wide receivers here in a minute. What about – I did want to ask you this. Joey, initially in actives, which is big-time news, Drake London, who is just an absolute beast. $6,500. But he's got some guy named Cooper Rush throwing him the ball. Last time we saw Cooper, he was leading the Ravens offense. Not very well, but I love Drake London in general.

Talk to me a little bit about him and especially large field tournamentsGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗. He's definitely going to be contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗. I don't think he gets anywhere near five percent ownership. But talk to me a little bit about Drake London with no Joey Porter Jr. I'm on Team Bijan, so I'm off London. But if I get it. He's also going to be really low-ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗, and he's good. He relies more on a quarterback than Dixon does, so that's why I like Dixon more.

But London cheaper and will be even lower-owned. So, yeah, interesting call right there. I talked about how I think Atlanta's livening this game to win. Oh, wow. Well, I hope you're wrong. One of my thousand-dollar circuit tickets is on Pittsburgh, so I hope it leaves. Matt, all right, Emeka Abuka coming back home to his home state. Shout out to all my Ohio State fans last night. All right, let's get down to this – I'll call it this last tier, and then maybe it's a value tier.

But you got QJ, Quentin Johnston, who I feel like is getting some love. I'll lump all those Packers receivers in there. Christian Watson is going to be the best of the bunch tonight. Jayden Reed as well, Matthews Golden. And then DK Metcalf, Aaron Rogers has talked a little bit about getting him the ball more this year. And then Michael Wilson talked to me about this little group that we'll get into some value guys. Yeah, I like Matthews Golden the most here.

Just really nice tag. So he's someone I'm high on. I think a lot of this range is like who you're playing at quarterback. You know, obviously stacking partners make sense. Wandale Robinson. I've talked to him offseason. Yeah, how I like Tennessee. I think he's intriguing. Then the other Browns guy, who I think is just going to get fed the rock. I'm sure you've seen him a bunch. KC Concepcion. This guy can just make plays. Again.

No, like, even the Cleveland, like, the guys who cover the Browns, who I'm friendly with a couple of those guys, they don't talk good about the Browns because there's nothing to talk good about. They hate the Browns. Everyone around here, it's like a necessary evil. You know, we're obviously Browns fans, but we hate ownership. There's nothing good to say about them.

But Concepcion and Boston, mostly Concepcion had awesome camps, and I think they're going to step in right away and command a real big target share in this offense. So... If Watson can be competent, he's a big ask and he might not be able to be. I think Concepcion is a real interesting play at like $4,600. No ownership. Again, just plays into like how much unknown there is. You know what I mean? Yeah.

What what's what's not unknown is Wondell Robinson with Brian Dable and Wondell and Brian Dable got Wondell Robinson a bunch of money in the offseason, got him to Tennessee and Now he's coaching him again. He's got a quarterback that he's going to scheme up ways to get Wondell Dinks and Ducks up and down the field. So give me some Wondell Robinson. I love his price tag on both DraftKings and especially on FanDuel at $5,300.

He is more of a DraftKings type guy where he's going to catch, you know, nine for ninety nine and a touchdown. Hopefully something like Wondell. I like your call by Concepcion. He's a baller as well, but there is a lot of unknown. And then that brings me to Trey Tucker. You talked about earlier, $4,000 for Trey Tucker. Dirt cheap price on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel as well. A little bit higher.

But talk to me a little bit about Trey Tucker. You talked in the beginning about Kirk Cousins. So I'm assuming you like Trey Tucker to go with Michael May and just talk a little bit about Trey Tucker. Yeah, I mean, he's a stud. I like him a lot. I think him and Mayer eat up a ton of the target share left behind by Bowers. So, yeah, I'm in on Tucker. He's way too cheap.

I mean, him and Mayer and A-Chan are the three, like, biggest value plays, at least for my money, on this slate. So, yeah, I like him a lot. I mean, again, there's so much unknown. Maybe the offense stinks. You're relying on Kirk Cousins. Like, I'm not going to be shocked if a lineup without Tucker wins it, but I think he's a thousand too cheap for this spot. Got it.

Let's talk a little bit about, I want to talk about three different teams. We'll cover them. Let's talk about Arizona's receivers. You got Mazda Marv. You have Michael Wilson, right? Two guys that should see a lot of the targets out in the tight end as well. So talk to me, any of the Michael Wilson and or Mazda Marv, you like them as a one-off, you have to have them in a bring back against LA. Talk to me. I'm good. I don't like those guys at all.

Don't like those guys at all. The guy that I'd like is Nick Brad. Yeah. Rank the Jaguars wide receivers in the order you like them. Probably Washington, Thomas, Myers, but it's all fluid. Yeah, I think it's any given Sunday for that. And then lastly, the Colts wide receivers. Josh Downs works well in the slot. Alec Pierce, I'm hearing nothing about Alec Pierce. He's going to play. I don't even think he was on the final injury report. Looks good.

Yeah, they said he's going to be on a pitch count today. Oh, they did say that. Okay, I did not hear that. All right. He's on a pitch count. What about $4,700 Keenan Mitchell? Keenan Allen, yeah, definitely in play. Why not? Keenan Mitchell, yeah. Yeah, Keenan Allen, yeah. Marking there in the slot for Dimes, yeah. So you have any love for Alec Pierce, or if he's on a pitch count, you're not getting to any of them? No, I'm not getting to any of them personally.

Any other Flyers? I know you like Jacobs Lane a little bit. Elijah Surratt and Davante Adams Walker for the Ravens are both out, which I think that is pretty significant news. So now you have Flowers. You have your boy Jacobs Lane. We haven't gotten to tight ends yet, but you got some Mark Andrews there. Any love for any of these? I'll call on value guys down here at the end that we didn't really touch on. Yeah, I mean, I mentioned Lane earlier.

You were completely against it. I think he's got a role on this slate. Like, I don't love it, but he was another guy that really impressed in camp. I think you could do worse at $3,100. It's all I'll say. Yeah, last last thing and then we'll get on Devon Valey. $3,500 bucks on DraftKings. You know, this was one of those that the pricing came out. Jordan Tyson gets hurt.

Now you've got Devon Vele, who had some pretty good games last year, sitting at $3,500 in a game that I think is going to shoot out personally. But any love for Devon Vele for you? I think he's really popular. So, I mean, I get it. I'm not as high on that game as others are, so I'm not playing Vele, but I get it. He's too cheap. All right, let's move on to the tight end position. We're rocking and rolling through here.

Appreciate each and every one of you tuning in. All right, we're going position by position. We're at the tight end position. Now, Trey McBride's going to be up there. Obviously, Michael Meyer is going to be up there. $2,900 bucks. He's only $4,600 over on FanDuel. He's going to get tons of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ on both sides. In my opinion, we're showing thirty three. And this says this has five percent. I think it's higher than on FanDuel, but.

Definitely going to be popular, a lot of double tight end builds and cash and GPPs. This is a GPPGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗ show. We're talking about how you can take down the Mills. So talk to me about this tight end position, who you got. Yeah, unfortunately for me, like as far as the position goes, it's Meyer and – excuse me, I don't know why I always do that – and McBride. Those are the two guys that I'm playing if I'm playing one-offs, et cetera, at tight end.

But I think – Almost anyone is live in a stack. Juwan Johnson with Shuck, as you mentioned, or with Goff. You know, Colson Loveland, if you're playing Caleb, et cetera, et cetera. I'm personally playing a lot of Mayer and a lot of McBride because I think those two guys really stand out. But other guys within stacks, I think they're widely in play. But if I'm playing a one-off, I mean, you're only not playing Mayer to get different.

Like, that's the only reason, in my opinion. Yeah, I like that take that you said. You mentioned Jawan Johnson. I got a bunch of Jawan Johnson. I did the five dollar, you know, one fifty over on on Fando. I doubled my exposure. I got to win about nineteen point seven percent to one. I love Jawan in that game. I've said it numerous times. I think that game is a back and forth game.

I think that's another way to get different and try to take down that Milly when there's I think there's what, like. I don't know, six hundred thousand people. So a lot of thousand people in there. So Jawan Johnson, I think, is a great play on both sites, especially $5,400 on FanDuel. Harold Fannin, who I wrote up over at the nation as well. You like Quinn Sean Junkins. I think Harold Fannin is a great spot. They're going to be down.

I think he's their quote unquote wide receiver one. Talk about a lot of a lot of unknowns. Todd Munkin knows this guy can play some football in the National Football League. Jaguars give it up to the tight end as well. So I like Harold Fannin in large field tournaments. Michael Meyer, we saw what he did last year when Brock Bowers was out, had some pretty good games.

Now he's got a competent quarterback that can get him the football around the goal line and over the middle of the field. So yeah, so talk to me about Colston Loveland. I'm also really high on Colston Loveland in season long and today as well. I've got a bunch of Colston Loveland. Talk to me a little bit about Colston Loveland and where you are with that.

I mean, I'm just playing him if I'm playing Caleb Williams, honestly, because, like, I'm playing Mayer and I'm playing McBride if I'm not playing a guy in my stack. So Loveland just a guy that's good, but I'm really only getting there if I'm playing a stack for that game personally, you know, except if I'm playing, you know, if we're talking about one-fifty setting, sure. Yeah. What about the hometown kid, Harold Fannin?

Am I a little bit higher on him than you are, or you don't have any interest in Fannin? Yeah, I mean, I think that he's one of the three main Browns you can get to, Judkins, Concepcion, Fannin. I think those are the three guys. Yeah, I think that those are the three that are going to get peppered with targets. So any of them I'm good with. They all have really low floors. What about some of these? What about Tyler Pitts Sr.?

I think the answer is no to that since you're Team Bijan and you don't like Drake. I'll mention two other guys, and I'll let you talk about anybody. Dallas Goedert? Just signed a new contract, and he's – I'll call him wide receiver two now. I like him. I think he had like ten or thirteen touchdowns. They peppered him around the goal line last year. He had a really good year last year. Talked to me about Dallas Goedert.

Then I also want to hear about the newly – the fresh off the ACL first game back. This guy was an absolute stud before he got hurt. Tucker Kraft, another tough matchup. Maybe some – talk to me about those two, Dallas Goedert or Tucker Kraft. Yeah, I mean, I don't have much to say about Goedert. Kraft I like in that game, a game I think points are in play that probably goes lower owned than the two games we talked about earlier. So Kraft, I think he's really good.

You know, a little skeptical to go hard because of the injury, you know, coming off. How hard are they going to run him? But he's a main weapon for them. I think he's got sneaky upside. So Kraft would be my guy there. Yobi Trice, appreciate it. Saw you in the chat this morning with the four kids. Now dropping another four-ninety-nine. We appreciate that. How does ownership look on tight ends below four-thousand and above four-thousand?

Well, if I pull this up over here, let's look at the ownership. I mean, Meyers going to come in, the cream of the crop, almost thirty-three percent. Jawan Johnson number two, followed up by LaPorta, Colston Loveland. So, yeah, so it's kind of spread out amongst the board once you get after Meyer, and I think you can pretty much get anybody. I wouldn't worry about ownership at the tight end position, obviously, unless you're talking about Meyer.

Matt, I don't know if you feel differently, but if it's strictly ownership, I think you don't need to worry about it unless it's Meyer. Agreed. All right, last tight end I want to talk about as it pertains to the Mills, and I think you might like this. Maybe you will, maybe you won't because I know you play the game so much, but listen. I like me some Mike Gesicki. The Jizz Kid is going to gritty in the end zone. It's not going to be Chase.

It's not going to be Higgins. It's not going to be Yossi Vash. Any love for Mike Gesicki? Can we agree on one thing today, Matt? Do you have any Gesicki? No. I mean, if you're playing stacks in that game, sure. But no. I mean, I'm trying to see how much I have. If you're trying to win the million – I just got to have some Gesicki in case Joey B's the guy.

I even have an Eric Allteam in there as well with Joey B just to try to get that tight end. If he catches two tight ends and Joey B goes off, then I think you're looking good. Any other tight ends? I want to talk about K-Dot and Dalton Kincaid, Kohler Express, any of those guys down there that you want to talk about? I think you brought up literally every tight end, so no. I did not mention Darden Waller.

Yeah, I mean, again, another guy that tight end is so clear to me. It's Mayer and it's McBride. Anyone else is fine in the stack, but why would you play Waller over Mayer as a one-off? Why would you play Waller over what? Mayer as a one-off. I personally wouldn't. I wouldn't play Darden Waller. The only answer would be ownership. And that's kind of the answer for every other tight end, in my opinion. And if people are going to play like that, then I just want more mayor.

Yeah. All right. That's fair. All right. Let's move on to the last position defense. I love defense today, Matt. I've already told you earlier in the week, some of my favorite D's, but chip when Milly type winning defenses that are going to be on the winner at the end of the day.

Yeah so I like the Browns at $2,100 um yeah they'll be popular that's kind of it like I don't think they're gonna be too popular the Jets are gonna be real popular the Browns are eight and a half point dogs on the road I don't think the Browns are popular the Jets are gonna be popular $2,500 it's like what are they slight favorites there no no one respects Tennessee so I don't think the Browns are popular personally at all and at that price $2,100 They're I think they're my favorite D.

And other than that, I don't have any strong takes on D. Like the Jaguars against the Browns. Yeah. I mean, Deshaun Watson is all kinds of horrible. So you tell me the Jaguars. Sure. But I don't really want to spend thirteen hundred more on them when I can just play the Browns in the same game. Again, the Browns, when healthy, have one of the best defenses in football. They're pretty shallow, so when they get injuries, it's not going to last.

But they got the reigning defensive player of the year, Swessinger. They traded Myles Garrett, but they got Jared Verse. They got a top five pick in Mason Graham. Malik Collins was amazing before he got hurt last year. I'm high on the Browns defense. I think they keep them in this game. And at $2,100, they're a smash for me. Yeah, I don't think you're going to sneak them by anybody, though. We got them as the third-highest-ownedOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ team.

And like you said, I mean, those dudes that you just mentioned are beasts. Yeah, they lose Garrett, right, and that fake sack record he got. But everybody else on there is going to be dynamite. All right, so you like the Browns. You like the Jags. Jets and Titans are popping as far as ownership goes. Titans are going to be super popular over on FanDuel, only at $3,200 bucks. Hey, for me, Matt, over on FanDuel, I got a bunch of the Colts.

They're $3,200. Same price. A tenth of the ownership. I think the Colts fading the Titans, just a little switcheroo dunkeroo, a little tambo special. Give me some Colts in the Milly Maker over on FanDuel instead of the Titans. I really love that because I am I'm pretty much out on the Ravens offense outside of, say, Flowers. Any other defenses that you want to touch on? Because I got a couple if you don't. I do not. Yeah. I'll give you mine.

Bengals, you're not going to like that. Bengals upgraded their offense. Sexy Dexy is going to get busy today. Bowie Mafa, I think that's how you pronounce his name. This defense got major, major uphauls. It's going to make that secondary a whole lot better. Give me some Bengals. I got the Bengals, Matt. Matt, I got the Bengals in my juggernaut team. Three thirty three. Three thirty three. Got the Bengals in there. Going to be super low on. Love you some Bengals. I hope Nate's listening.

I got those Vikings as well. No running game. You got Brian Flores and you got three wide receivers that, in my opinion, at least today, aren't going to do a very good job. I know running game. MarShawn Lloyd. So. Who is that? I mean, when's the last time a running back who, first off, you're not even saying is bad. You're just saying you don't know. So we know how this goes. Like, when's the last time that is, like, how dependent a good running game is?

You know, like, if Jay had a real good running games with Jacobs, you don't think they're going to have a good running game with whoever they just plug in there? Either I left you speechless or frozen. I don't. No, I think Jacobs was the difference. I mean, I think Lloyd – yeah, somebody's internet connection is bad. I mean, I just think Lloyd – I mean, how many carries does he have in the NFL? Less than – I think less than twenty, maybe less than fifty.

But I'm taking my chances on the Vikings, D, in that home opener. Brian Flores is going to be flying all around that field, sending guys. Jordan Love is not going to know what to do with him. Just give me the Vikings defense. Hey, we're talking contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ constructions. I got fifteen percent of those Vikings in that five dollar milli. Hopefully take two or three to the house. And hey, we're at the top of the house at the end of the night.

You cut out a bunch, but I heard that you like the Vikings. That'll do it. Yeah, really like the Vikings. Give me your top contrarian stack and who's going to be in that stack and who's going to be on the winner at the end of the night in these milli contests. Top contrarian stack. We will go with the team you just were talking bad about. Give me the Packers. Jordan Love, Lloyd, Golden. All right, that's fair. Hey, hopefully you're right.

If you're right, then I'm not, and that's great. I'm going to go with Tyler Shuck. I like the Saints. I like the Shuck train with a lave, Jawan Johnson, even has some Etienne in there. I think that over-stacking that game, is that it? That's it. All right, that'll do it for us. Hey, you still got thirty-five minutes before we lock. Appreciate each and every one of you tuning in. We'll be here each and every Sunday to go position by position. For my guy Belman, I'm Ham.

We'll see you at the top of the leaderboard tonight, and we'll see you back at six p.m. When Nades and I break down the Sunday night show. Good luck tonight in those contests.