UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

Let's go to the Stone. Before we go fight by fight, any – actually, what's up, Nate D? Great to see you. I hope you're doing well. Any broad state overview for you before we go fight by fight? Any fights you'll be locking? Yeah, anything before we talk about them? No locks. I plan on just being heavy on my two five-star fights. Maybe I could be talked in to moving up another one or two.

But yeah, I think there's a lot of solid fights to target on this one. So not even a must-have main event, I don't think. Agree. Absolutely agree. What's up, Nicholas? Hope you're doing well. All right, bottom to top, like usual, first fight of the night. In the mid-tier, we got Meng Dang taking on Cameron Nelson. Minus-one-forty-five, Dang. Plus-one-twenty-five is Nelson. Dang, plus-one-twenty-four inside the distance. Or plus one forty inside the distance. Nelson plus two seventy five inside the distance. Dang round one plus three hundred.

We're talking line movement like always. A lot of line movement in this one. Dang open plus one fifteen on the money line. Now minus one forty five. Fight open minus one forty to finish. Now minus one sixty five. Dang open plus one seventy five inside the distance. Now plus one forty. Dang opened plus four hundred in round one. Now plus three hundred.

On the flip side uh obviously money came against nelson on the money line also against him a little bit for inside the distance open to now plus I mean we're talking low level fight right here but it is expected to finish which is the highest uh mid-tier fight expected to finish on this card and yeah I I personally like Ding Meng because all of the line movement has pointed his way, and I think he is more aggressive.

He will have a height advantage, as you see. But I am fine playing Nelson in chalkier lineups, leaving .四 as well. But I'm going to play this fight. I'll be overweight more than likely. Yeah, I changed it to a four-star already. This is one I like to start the night off with. Just a lot of unknowns really on the Cam Nelson side. I thought he looked like an aggressive striker that goes for the kills. He also had some powerful takedowns as well.

But against some scrubs, and now he's getting Meng Ding, who is way more experienced. He's got a lot of knockouts, and I think he is the better point fighter of the two. So if it does go to a decision, I feel like in a striking match, I like Meng to win the course of fifteen minutes.

But Nelson could mix in takedowns, and at $7,900, anybody who can mix in takedowns and possibly win is going to be in play for me. I also think Nelson just, you know, the overall making your debut, having those nerves. I think he's going to come out hot, and that could be good or bad for him, but I think it's going to be good for DFS. I am going to take Nelson to win just because I like unknowns.

I think that it is a close fight, not quite a pick-em, but I'd be fine just taking the plus-money side of this either way. Give me Nelson as the pick to win, but I am cool being overweight to both sides of this one. I don't even think it'll be too highly owned of a fight as a whole. I agree with you. So you said you moved three-star to four-star? Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yeah, and that puts you at one of your favorite fights on the card, and I do agree. I don't really like the mid-tier too much. The really, really low tier when you're dumpster diving is pretty tough, so I think I will find myself landing on this fight a decent bid. Again, twenty-five cents on the under in terms of the fight to finish. Mang has taken money on the money line.

I'm going to ride the line movement, but I think Cam Nelson also a solid play and gets you the ability to leave money Pretty easily without giving up much upside. All right, let's keep it rolling from one of the fights that we like most to, in my opinion, one of the worst fights on the card to target. Julia Palastri taking on Jingneng Zhang. Minus two-thirty Palastri. Plus one-ninety-two is Jingneng. Plus two-fifty for this fight to finish.

The most likely to go the distance on the card. Palastri plus three-fifty. Zhang plus six-twenty-five. I don't really see myself playing... Annie Palastri, actually, if I had fifteen teams or more, you can mix her in. Her inside the distance prop, about twenty three and a half percent will be higher than her ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. So if you look at it that way, she's a way to get difference. Upper tier is loaded in this one, though. Hard for me to click that name.

And Jingnan Zhang, I mean, the fights expect to go the distance. She's $7,300. Mainly will stay on the feet. So I think she's a floorFloorIn daily fantasy sports (DFS), a player's floor is an estimate of the low end of their realistic fantasy scoring range. It describes downside, not a guaranteed minimum or their average projected score.Before trusting a floor estimate, check what could change the player's role today: a returning teammate, a minutes restriction, a lineup change or a different game script.Read the full definition of Floor play. I don't love it, but I'm going to probably get some. What about you? Yeah, this is my least favorite fight on the card. With limited lineups, it's more of a one star for me. I'll be sure not to click on this with hand builds on either side of it. And that's because I like Palastri.

I just think that both of them are primary strikers and Palastri is the more vicious striker. I think she's probably higher volume as well. And she's had to deal with so many grapplers that I think at this point she's got the grappling edge too. So all the edges go to Palastri, but she's $8,900. We would really need a ceiling type of performance from her to be on the optimal $8,900.

So I'm just going to hope that she wins score somewhere in the eighties and that's probably not going to cut it. What would you set her takedown prop at? Point five. Yeah, it's really hard for me to get there if she's not going to wrestle with the over heavily juiced. So I prefer the dog because we need to play a salary-based game and we need dogs on this card, but I don't even love it any which way. What's going on, Phil?

Great to see you, man. I cannot wait for NFL season. Gang, gang, or your name Phil didn't remind me of anything NFL, but it's hard to get that out of the back of my head. How many more drafts do you need, Big Marley, on the three sites to complete the max? Like eight. Wow. Eight total. Maybe, maybe eight, ten or so. You asked me in the pool how long I've been drafting. I looked it up the other day. The end of April is when I started.

That's crazy. Yeah, Big Marley's on that big time grind, maxing all three sites in the flagship. So hopefully we have some sweats when it's all said and done near the end. What's up, YSM? I assume you're in the showdown streets after shipping day one. So hope showdown's treating you well. Saw Tyler Williams got a touchdown. Bernard got a touchdown. NFL going to be lit, no doubt for sure. Hopefully UFC's lit this week as well, though. Let's keep it rolling. To the next fight on the card.

We got Lawrence Louie and Hector Santiago. Minus two eighty is Louie. Plus two thirty Santiago. Minus one forty five for this fight to finish. Louie plus one hundred inside the distance. Santiago plus five twenty five. Louie round one plus three hundred. I was a little surprised to see you have this as only a three star, mainly because looking at Louie, he had his five point three takedowns per fifteen minutes. Got seven takedowns in his UFC debut last fight. Four, one hundred DK points.

I will say those are his significant strikesSignificant StrikesSignificant strikes in MMA include all strikes at distance, outside a close grappling hold, plus forceful strikes during that hold or on the ground. For DFS scoring, only landed strikes count, not missed attempts.Compare significant strikes landed per minute with the opponent's absorption rate, then adjust for likely fight duration and wrestling. Treat averages from very short fights or limited samples cautiously.Read the full definition of Significant Strikes and his takedowns is only a three fight sample. And two of those were road to the UFC fight. So a little worse competition. Santiago is making his debut. But yeah, break this one down. Yeah, I'm cool. I just moved it to a four star as well because I do like targeting this fight. I think Santiago is probably the better and more powerful striker.

So if it is a striking match, he's going to be live to win and he could get a knockout and break the slateSlateIn MMA DFS, a slate usually covers the eligible bouts from one fight card. It can include preliminary bouts as well as the main card, so the headline fights are not your only possible source of fighters.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. But since he's the better striker, Louie should go in and wrestle heavily. I think that Santiago is a pure striker. So I don't know that he can get up if Louie gets takedown. So he could rack up control time. But if he can get up, I think Louie will keep going for those takedowns. And I think he can get multiple.

In each round, I just think that Louie has a better chance striking than Santiago does grappling. So if Louie is going to spend time on the feet, I don't really like the ninety the $9,100 price tag. But he is a guy, one of few guys, I think, on this card who could land, you know, six plus takedowns. And anyone who can land that many takedowns has to be in play for DFS. So Louie is my pick to win.

But Santiago's a dog I like at $7,100 because I think he could win a striking match, maybe score around $7,100 in a decision win. But he could also knock Louie out in any round and really score well. Yeah, I agree. I mean, I like Lawrence Louie. I think, like you said, he has one of the most upside on the slate. He can wrestle a bunch. He's taken on the striker.

And on the flip side, I do think Louie gets a little bit of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. I think Santiago is pretty solid on the feet. I'm looking at this as a clash of styles. Louie's not lost on the feet by any means, but Santiago, I think the line would look a little wide if it only stays on the feet. We like upside. We like takedowns and control time. $9,100. Louie has that. Any win at $7,100 would be fine from Santiago.

So this is a fight. I do like as well. I'll let Big Marley go first if you want to try this.

I'm okay all right yeah I I'm I'm all right as well maybe later I don't want to get caught saying something dumb but all right let's keep it rolling to the next fight on the card another mid-tier fights sean woodson minus one forty eight jack jenkins plus one twenty eight plus one thirty five for this fight to finish which is one of the four fights expected to go the distance the underdog slightly better inside the distance prop jenkins plus two ninety woodson plus three hundred Looking at this as like a striker, the stone kind of shows a striker in Woodson versus a wrestler in Jenkins.

Jenkins has good leg kicks. I still will never understand how Woodson can make one forty five, though, six, two and seventy eight inch reach. That'll give him seven inches in height, ten inches in reach advantage in this one. All fights of Sean Woodson's just look funny because he towers over these guys and looks like a pencil. But I'm really curious to see how this one goes down in real life. What do you think?

Yeah, I think Woodson's going to have a clear striking edge. It's going to be a lot longer. He's going to be pumping out that jab. And I think he could box up Jenkins. But Jenkins does have nasty leg kicks. I think he can chop that front leg down, slow Woodson down on the feet. And Jenkins should be wrestling in this matchup. I think he should go for multiple takedowns in each round. But he should be chopping that leg down too.

And the more he can chop the leg down, I think it's going to be harder for Woodson to keep getting up. So Jenkins is my favorite, one of my favorite underdogs on the card, just because he should be mixing in takedowns. I like his all-around game, but he does have a high pace when he's on the ground, and Woodson's pretty much striker only. So I think Jenkins could rack up strike – Not significant strikesSignificant StrikesSignificant strikes in MMA include all strikes at distance, outside a close grappling hold, plus forceful strikes during that hold or on the ground. For DFS scoring, only landed strikes count, not missed attempts.Compare significant strikes landed per minute with the opponent's absorption rate, then adjust for likely fight duration and wrestling. Treat averages from very short fights or limited samples cautiously.Read the full definition of Significant Strikes, but just strikes that are on the ground.

And he could also get maybe five takedowns or so. Possibly hurt that lead leg as well. Maybe even get a TKO that way. But give me Jenkins to pull off the upset. Don't really feel confident about him winning, but I do like that this fight is in the mid-range. Both sides are in play, but I would just rather have the underdog. You're on mute. What a mute donkey. I'm in agreement. I'm glad you went first. Jenkins has the wrestling upside. He has the leg kick upside.

He's also six hundred cheaper. Seventy eight has a chance to be optimal at $7,800, whereas seventy eight is drawing very thin at $8,400. So close, close fight. I'm not confident in the winner. I think how Woodson deals with the leg kicks is going to be the main thing, because Woodson does have good takedown defense and the jab should be money at range. But sometimes he doesn't use his reach as well as he should.

So yeah, if he doesn't reach well, I think leg kicks will be money from Jenkins. This fight is expected to go the distance, though, in the mid-tier. So give me the six hundred savings and Jenkins as my preferred play. Next fight on the card, we got Long Zhao taking on Francisco Nuzi. Minus one eighty long, plus one fifty is Nuzi. Minus one ten for this fight to finish. Long plus one ninety inside the distance. Nuzi plus three twenty five. Take it away.

So yeah, Long's out. He's got power in his hands, but he just doesn't throw enough volume. He's one of those boring strikers, in my opinion, but he could catch Newsy with something big. I think his biggest edge in this matchup, though, would be takedowns. Newsy looks like a primary striker and I think he can struggle off of his back. So if that Long Zhao can go in there and get takedowns, I think he's live to win a decision with multiple takedowns.

But even if he's doing that, I just don't think he's going to land enough strikes in top control to really have a big ceiling. And on the feet, I think Newsy is the more exciting striker. I think he's going to be higher on volume. He's got more tools in his striking toolbox. So it's another one where I like the underdog to pull off the upset. He's I don't know who I like more, but I think those are two of my favorite dogs on the card.

I plan on being overweight to both of them. And Long Zhao is an underweight play for me. If I'm making ten lineups, I'll probably fully fade Long Zhao. I really have no interest in his style for DFS. Do you think he wrestles in this one, though? Nine wins by submission. I think four were by KO, maybe five. He hasn't wrestled as much in the UFC as I was expecting, but it feels like a matchup that it definitely would be smart to do so.

Yeah, I think he will just based on the line. But I don't know that he's the smartest dude. I don't know how much he'll wrestle. So I would rather just take my chances on the underdog. Yeah, fair enough. I put this one as like the classic, even with the field on both sides. I think they're going to both be relatively low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage when you play both, especially long. I think that's like one of your ways to get difference.

Post one ninety inside the distance isn't bad. He's live for a bank at any time. And the sub props only short or slightly worse. Then it's KO props, so that means I think he does wrestle. At least he should wrestle. And any time you wrestle at $8,600 relatively low owned, I would have some interest. And then, yeah, Newsy, solid money line, probably the better striker. Only $7,600. Probably my preferred play when it's all said and done.

But I expect probably Newsy to be higher owned than long due to the savings and needing to play some dogs.

Right let's go to a couple fights that have some big favorites this one is the second biggest favorite on the card and the highest price ray surya minus seven sixty kevin borjas plus five thirty eight minus two oh five for this fight to finish surya minus one eighty five inside the distance borjas plus eight seventy five surya round one plus one sixty five We're talking line movement. Saruja has been hammered in a lot of ways. Minus five hundred. He opened on the money line.

Now minus seven sixty. This fight opened minus one fifty five to finish. Now minus two oh five. Saruja opened minus one thirty inside the distance. Now minus one eighty five. He also opened plus two thirty in round one. Now plus one sixty five. All of the money is coming on him in every which way. With that being said, he's $9,700. He can get around one submission in a minute, nine seconds and probably bust.

So can Borjas get up if he's taken down? I think it's the big question. Man, I don't know. I kind of do like Saruya round one. I just think it is a pure striker versus grappler matchup. And Saruya is going to be the dominant wrestler who's going to be much better with the submission game. I think Borjas has a better chance of knocking Saruya out than he does keeping it on the feet or getting back up to the feet enough to win a decision.

And I still know that he has enough power. So give me Saruya round one, but $9,700. I'm really not trying to get to it unless I unless I'm playing enough underdogs where it makes it easy. But I mean, two hundred dollars less for Umar. Umar has a much higher ceiling and kind of the same floor as well. So give me Saruya, but $9,700. I'd be fine if I got none. Fair enough.

We're going to get to you already mentioned the Umar. We're going to get to Asakura, but we'll talk about Hassan right away. Ninety seven. Ninety six. Who would you prefer if you had to choose between those two? Hassan, I just like that that kid. We'll talk about him, but I think he's going to be a good addition to the UFC. Yeah, a lot of people have a lot of hype or are ready for him to come in the UFC.

So we will get there in a little bit. Again, just want to say appreciate everyone hanging out with us. The like button and the subscribe button helps us out a ton. And again, I already did show a throw it over real quick again. But this is our homepage. Multiple different options for memberships. Giving away over $45,000.

In cash and prizes for the NFL season three hundred forty nine dollars to get in for all of our NFL content with SaberSim with the Discord and then bottom left join the nation multiple different deals five days for nineteen dollars um the starter pack ultimate if you want contest sims and single sport options as well NFL college football you're watching MMA though so I assume you play some MMA you can find all of our uh prices all of our offerings and you can also email info at Ship It Nation.com if you have any questions all right let's hop back to this and let's say hi to the man jordan I saw your ultrasound picture in the Discord today awesome stuff love to hear everything going well uh and

I I want to say you said it was a a boy but I could be wrong let me know jordan it's been a little while so let me know uh again yeah big congrats for sure All right, we'll keep it rolling to the next fight on the card. Andre Lima taking on Namsari Batbuyer. Minus two, sixty-five Lima. Plus two, nineteen is Batbuyer. Minus two, ten for this fight to finish. Lima minus one, twenty inside the distance. Batbuyer plus three, seventy-five. Lima round one plus two, seventy-five.

Another fight with some line movement, but this is mainly the inside the distance. It was minus one ninety to finish now minus two ten. Lima was minus one fifteen now minus one twenty. Bat buyer plus four hundred now plus three seventy five. I mean, I like this bat buyer cap because all of his fights and inside the distance, I think he'll force Lima to fight. And I think Lima is better when it's all said and done, wherever the fight takes place.

Terrible fight against Borjas last time out, but Borjas ran around. Lima can cut off the cage. I think it's a completely different matchup and I think he gets back on track and I definitely have some interest at $9,000. Yeah. I like this fight because of the bat buyer side. I mean, he's just full aggression. He's going to go in there and try to knock out Lima and he's going to be right out of the gates too.

So I think his aggression is going to make Lima fight with a much more urgency than in his last fight. And I agree that Lima is just the more skilled, more technical fighter all around. The longer it goes, the more it favors him. But I think he's got enough power to knock him out in the first round, too, while Bat Buyer is getting crazy.

So if Bat Buyer wins, I think $7,200 does put him on the optimal lineup because there's a good chance it'll be a finish. But Lima at $9,000, typically I wouldn't like his style at $9,000 on DFS. But against Bat Buyer, I think he is live for a pretty big score here. So yeah. Yeah, I like Andre Lima. I like the fight as a whole. I thought about putting this one as a five star, actually.

So we'll see what I end up with once I start building lineups. But Lima is probably the reason I took it off of five stars. Kind of hard to make a Lima fight five star, especially when he's coming off a loss. And what's his nuts? Borja scored like fifty points in a win. So it's tough to do a five star right after that. For sure. Both only landed fifty one significant strikesSignificant StrikesSignificant strikes in MMA include all strikes at distance, outside a close grappling hold, plus forceful strikes during that hold or on the ground. For DFS scoring, only landed strikes count, not missed attempts.Compare significant strikes landed per minute with the opponent's absorption rate, then adjust for likely fight duration and wrestling. Treat averages from very short fights or limited samples cautiously.Read the full definition of Significant Strikes. Like Nicholas said, shit the bed at minus six hundred.

I hope people game log watch and think that because, yeah, it's just a completely different fight. Styles make fights. If one guy is going to be in your face pressuring for fifteen minutes and the other guy is running around the octagon for fifteen minutes, it's a lot easier to score in wins with the guy pressuring. And that is what that buyer does. That means I definitely have interest in that buyer at his price. If he wins, he should score. And I have interest in Lima.

Because I think he can wrestle. I think he can knock out Bat Buyer. And I'm just hoping Bat Buyer makes this a fun fight. So, yeah, sign me up on both sides. I probably would have it as a four-star, too, like you do. I think I see it very similar all the way around. Again, Lima is favored to finish at minus-one-twenty. All right, we kind of tipped our hand a little bit, but now the biggest favorite on the card, Bilal Hassan, minus eight hundred.

Taking on Nilsson Rojas, plus five sixty one, minus two ten for this fight to finish. Hassan minus two hundred inside the distance. Rojas plus $1,000. Hassan in round one, open plus two, or excuse me, open plus one seventy five. Now plus one seventy. He opened minus five hundred on the money line and is now minus eight hundred. Biggest favorite on the card. A lot of hype on this guy. And some people are probably like, what the heck? Like I've never heard of him.

He was on episode one this year of Dana White's contender series, got a forty five second knockout and then everyone's fallen in love with him. I mean, he's good. He's nine to know before that, but he's been huge favorites over pretty much everyone as he is again this week. But I think it was like minus $4,500. Eye contender series or something. So a step up in competition, not the biggest, biggest step up, but yeah, he should roll.

What does he need to do at $9,600, though? $9,600. I think we just need a knockout, maybe multiple knockdowns if it's not in the first round. But I mean, he's minus one eighty five, I believe, believe inside the distance plus two fifteen and round one. And I just like this kid skills when he is fast. He's technical. He's got good kicks.

He's just he's dangerous man he's gonna be he's gonna be trying to knock Rojas out and I think that typically a grappler is what we wouldn't want to see this kid go against but in this fight I think Hassan has the grappling edge too Rojas I'd say he's a solid boxer maybe he's got more one punch power than Hassan but I just think he has to knock Hassan out I just have a hard time seeing him beat Hassan in a three-round striking match.

Hassan's just going to be faster, throwing more strikes from all angles. And I think eventually he is going to knock Rojas out. So I upped it to a four-star. I also lowered Saruya down to a two-star that fight. Okay. I mean, does he have a hundred seventy significant strikeSignificant StrikesSignificant strikes in MMA include all strikes at distance, outside a close grappling hold, plus forceful strikes during that hold or on the ground. For DFS scoring, only landed strikes count, not missed attempts.Compare significant strikes landed per minute with the opponent's absorption rate, then adjust for likely fight duration and wrestling. Treat averages from very short fights or limited samples cautiously.Read the full definition of Significant Strikes late third round upside? I feel like that's kind of what we need. He feels like a good volume striker. He can put it on. We need that at $9,600. I wouldn't put it past him.

I think he could do that. I don't know if I would project that, but I think it's definitely a possibility. Yeah, obviously can't project that. If you had to pick. Uh, an underdog against like, like a song, you dong, uh, Rojas, uh, um, Kevin Borjas. Do you have a preference? Do you plan on playing any of them? I'll reach you long. You can throw in there. Shit. Yeah. I don't really like any of them.

Um, probably gets to Santiago when I start really wanting to play them, but I'd be okay. Uh, with a hundred and fifty, I'd be okay with a little bit of Borjas, a little bit of you dong. Uh, I don't, Wait, Rojas, not Borja. I don't want to play any Borjas, I don't think. Rojas, I'm more interested in just because he does have power. He's nine and oh two, I believe. He's never lost. He is a good fighter.

It's just that all the hype is around this Hassan kid. That's who the UFC wants to win as well. So I think we got to pretty much get to $7,100 for me to really start hand build picking lineups. For sure. And I agree with that. I mean, I would pick song the easy pick expected to go twenty five minutes.

I still don't love it, though, but I do think most people do kind of start their lineup $7,000 and above when it comes to underdogs and avoid that really low tier. So that is a way to get different if you are choosing to do so in large field stuff. All right, we got five fights left. The most likely fight to finish on the card. See Louie minus one eighty five. Take it on Levi Rodriguez.

Plus one sixty one minus seven hundred for this fight to finish. Louie minus one sixty five inside the distance. Rodriguez plus two ten. Louie round one plus one forty five. Rodriguez plus three twenty five. Both guys have taken money on the round one prop. Louie open plus one seventy five. Now plus one forty five. Rodriguez open plus three fifty. Now plus one. Under one and a half opened plus one Oh five now minus two hundred. Yeah.

When we see a minus two hundred for under one and a half and $8,700 and $7,500. That is the definition of a load up fight for me. I guess Rodriguez is my preferred side since he's twelve hundred cheaper and we need dogs. But that is my only logic for that. I would love to be overweight on both. Ideally, what do you what do you see in this one? Yeah, this is just my favorite fight to target as a whole.

I'd just be fine with either side. I think it's going to be a banger. Both guys' strikers are going to be trying to knock the other's head off. I don't expect takedowns, but if there are some, I would imagine it's on the Rodriguez side. Louie is a kickboxer.

I think I saw a couple takedowns from him, but I just think that the Brazilian is much more likely to have any success on the mat, but I just think they're going to go out there and It's stand and bang, and I think one guy falls in the first round. So first round knockoutRound One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish from either one of these guys at these prices is likely on the optimal lineup. I'm picking Louie to get it done.

But if I'm struggling with underdogs on this card, I have no idea. I mean, no problem going to Rodriguez instead, and that'll probably get me more Umar exposure and maybe some Hassan as well. Yeah, I like it. Again, great fight to target. I hope someone gets knocked out and Ron won. I want Rodriguez right now. I plan on being more overweight because of the twelve hundred savings.

If I love everything in my script and I have more Louie or more overweight there, I'd be totally fine. But I do know I want a bunch of this fight regardless.

Right let's get to a rematch from may thirtieth of this year sumadarji minus two fifteen alex perez plus one eighty three minus one sixty for this fight to finish sumadarji plus one twenty five inside the distance perez plus three hundred so this fight ended uh round two due to low blows on the sumadarji side but man it was I was picked alex perez Mainly for DFS. I preferred him in the last fight. He was the dog. He had the wrestling upside.

Sumidarji, just a striker. All of that still holds true. But I have a hard time seeing the fight go different from the first one. And it was all Sumidarji. The speed advantage, the striking. It wasn't even competitive. So I guess I'm... I'm not too shocked to see it only minus two, fifteen. Ten minutes is a small sample size. They're humans. Every day today is different. But, man, what's Alex Perez going to come in and do in this fight? Sumadarji got a takedown.

Perez didn't. What's Perez going to come in and do that's going to change the fight and make him win? Just come out of the gates hot and land in takedowns, possibly go for an early submission. But yeah, I think Perez is going to have to have early success. Or else Sumadar is just going to pick him apart and probably finish him at some point. I could definitely see Perez looking for the door again.

Hopefully not the same way as the last time. But I think I picked Perez as well. And I think at $7,400 when you're looking for DFS underdogs, he's the type of guy you want because he is a good wrestler. He's going to have the submission edge. He just knocked out Charles Johnson not too long ago, too. So he's got power in his hands. Yeah, that fight was all Sumadarji, man. It looked like my Perez lineups were trash.

I mean, they were trash, but I felt like I was okay going into that fight, and then Sumadarji just ruined all my chances, and Perez is lucky he looked for a way out because he was going to lose that fight. And I think that Sumadarji is the clear pick this time. But I put it as a three and three because Sumadarji is primarily, I would say, a striker only. I don't expect him to go out there and get takedowns. He did in the first.

He got one in the first fight. But he's going to try and knock out Perez. He is just a better, longer, faster striker. And I think Perez will look for the door. So I'm fine at $8,800 for Sumadarji. But he almost needs a knockout, I think. And then any win from Perez is going to be all right. So, $7,400. I'm OK with that still. Who would your preferred play be if you had to choose? What was that?

Who would your preferred play be if you had to choose? At these prices, I guess the rest of the card is what's going to depend on who's my preferred play. If I'm looking for an underdog, then I'm fine with Perez. But I guess if I'm making one lineup and I have to use this one. Gosh, I feel like I probably wouldn't use this fight with one lineup. So maybe Sumadarji. Yeah, I'm in the same boat. If I had one lineup, I probably don't get there.

Like, again, it's from what I said. I think Sumadarji wins. It's hard to pick against him from what we saw in the last fight. But he's $8,800 over. Let's see, over two and a half. Is plus one Oh five, like more than likely, or it's not supposed to end in the first two rounds. The third round knockup from Sumadarji probably isn't enough. Even if he scores ninety nine, which is good at $8,800, it's not guaranteed to be optimal.

So kind of like a The fight we talked about with Long and Newsy earlier where it's even with the field all the way around. Perez, if he wins, he'll score. So I want some. But I'm picking Sumadarji even in some of his wins. Probably most of his wins, though. He's not optimal. So I want to taper my exposure a little bit. Around the field on both, I guess Sumadarji may be my preferred play. But I don't love this fight too much.

But it has outs. It has outs for the optimal at moderate ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. All right, we got three fights left on the card. Big favorite, Kai Asakura, minus .-. Reachy Long, plus .-. Minus .-. Inside the distance for Asakura. Excuse me, plus eight forty for a reachy long us occur in round one plus one twenty five. So he's the fourth biggest favorite on the card, but he is the most likely to win inside the distance and in round one.

It's drawn one prop open plus one seventy now plus one twenty five is inside the distance prop open minus two hundred now minus two fifty five. He's $9,400 one hundred less than Umar, two hundred less than Hassan. He like he's fighting with a really tough opponent. Group in the upper tier, but man, he should style on a reach you long. I think he knocks him out in round one. You're just hoping, I guess, you get more than one knockdown, I guess.

But yeah, I'm going to play Asakura. How does he match up against those other guys? I prefer Umar in a vacuum. I prefer Hassan in a vacuum, but it's a two hundred dollar difference. And if you leave that two hundred, it's a way to get different. I don't even hate leaving the one hundred and really chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk lineups from Umar, but it is a little scary.

What are your thoughts on leaving the money from Umar, from Hassan and then just this fight in general? Yeah, I'm fine with it because I do like Oscar to get a first round knockoutRound One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish. Another one where Arishi Lang's aggression probably is going to help that happen. If Asakura doesn't get a first round knockout, I really don't like the $9,400. I just don't think he has one hundred and seventy strikes in his game like Hassan could.

So first round knockout or bust at $9,400, I'd say. Orichi Lang, maybe he's the lowest I'd want to go with hand built lineups. He is an aggressive fighter. If he wins, I'd expect him to score well. But I just think he gets knocked out early. I do, too. We know you're saying it. What? Plus. Let's get out that good old odds converter. He is plus three sixty three. Is that what he was? Plus three sixty four.

Plus three sixty four is twenty one point six percent. And his ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership will probably be about half that. So, again, that's why if you're looking at contest flashback on SaberSim or other reverse engineering what the pros do when they play one fifty, even if they're playing seventy five plus teams, usually they're playing every single fighter because every fighter does have a chance to win. If you believe that odds are somewhat efficient, plus three sixty four is twenty one half percent.

We play an ownership based game when you win, how much you win. A reach you long checks out to be one of the more solid plays in when dumpster diving, if you are looking at all that. So I don't hate it. And we just saw in a contender series on Tuesday, what was Frank Mir's daughter or whatever was like minus $5,000 favorite or loss or something like anything can happen. Minus $6,000. Minus $6,000 loses a unanimous decision.

So, yeah, the lower the level, the more likely randomness, I guess, happens. But minus $6,000 is minus $6,000. So maybe a reach along gets the job done and breaks the slateSlateIn MMA DFS, a slate usually covers the eligible bouts from one fight card. It can include preliminary bouts as well as the main card, so the headline fights are not your only possible source of fighters.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate this week. All right, two fights left. Co-main event time. One expected to go the distance. Jan Jaunan, minus one fifty. Denise Gomes, plus one thirty. Plus two hundred for this fight to finish. The underdog in Gomes, better inside the distance prop, plus three ten. Jan, plus five twenty-five.

I mean, paying five or $8,500 for someone that's plus five twenty five inside the distance who is a striker is just not something I look and looking to do. So Jonan's a fade and I'm going to play some gomes, though. A, she has a better inside distance prop at plus three ten. If someone wrestles, I think it's her. And she has some knockout power, seven of her twelve wins by KO. So do I love Gomes? No. I think Jan probably wins the decision.

But if having to choose a fighter for DFS, I'm definitely saving the eight hundred. So it's Gomes or Buss for me. Yeah, I think I agree. I'm picking Jan to win. I think it mostly stays on the feet and Jan is the better, more powerful striker, I think. And it is in China. But she does struggle off her back and she's thirty seven years old now. Younger fighter, uh, ten years younger wins like sixty six percent of the time.

So maybe the odds should be a little bit closer. And if Gomes does win, I think she'll probably score more than ten X that $7,700 price. So I'm cool with her being the preferred play of the two, especially because I really don't care for this fight very much. It's hard to pay $8,500 for Yana, a really pure striker. Yeah, very, very tough for me to do that.

If I had to fade one fighter on the card above $7,000, I think that is the one I am choosing this week. All right. It's time for the main events. I will be up for this one for sure. We have a big favorites in Umar Namagomedov coming in at minus six hundred. Taking on the hometown guy in Song Yedong plus four twenty five plus one seventy for this fight to finish.

Umar plus two, fifteen inside the distance song plus six, seventy five. Umar Ron one plus seven hundred. Like he's not probably going to finish, but all but one of his wins have scored over one hundred. With that being said, like is one oh five enough on this card is one ten enough on this card? I'm not sure. I'm definitely going to play Umar. I think he's a monster. He's going to wrestle.

When you wrestle for twenty five minutes, you always have all the upside in the world. But there are fights like the figgy fight last time. I think he scored seventy five. It was a three round fight. But even if that was a twenty five minute fight, he wasn't going to get there more than likely. So I don't think this is an all in fight.

I'm definitely going to play Umar, but I think you can, again, drop Umar to Asakura and leave one hundred. And that's a way you can get different. As far as the Song Yedong side, I don't love it, but he's $6,700 in a fight that's expected to go twenty five minutes. He could score. He could back himself into forty five DraftKings points just doing random stuff. If no underdogs win or very few win.

Six, seven hundred can open up a lot, especially if the upper tier actually smashes, which is very possible. So I think he comes in over owned because he's the main event fighter. So I'll probably be underweight, but I don't think fading songs my favorite approach. But, yeah, I do think that Ritchie Long pivot is very interesting. More than his median projectionProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections will be way worse.

When Song wins versus a Ritchie Long, it actually might be relatively close, but I do think a Ritchie Long more likely to win by a decent bit, which books are saying as well. Umar Aminan, not a lock. Song, I think, is an underweight play. I think he's over-owned, but I think he can get there in a loss sometimes. What are you doing in this one?

Yeah, I'm probably going to load up on Umar just because his clear edge in this one would be the wrestling, and he could rack up ten takedowns in this fight with twenty-five minutes to work with. Song Yudong is a nasty striker. I mean, Umar's a good striker, too, but that's how he could lose the fight is staying on the feet too long because Yudong could knock him out.

And if we are taking out takedowns, I think Yudong could win a five-round striking-based decision, too. But... Since that's the case, I think Umar will be going pretty wrestle heavy in this one. He could be pretty active, too. I think he has probably the highest ceiling on the card, especially in the decision. So $9,500. I like him more than Suri. I like him more than Hassan and Asakura, too. So he's probably my favorite fight on the card.

And if I'm hand-building, I'm probably not going to get to Yadong. But with MME, yeah, you got to mix him in because, I mean, he is a top-notch fighter. And it wouldn't shock me to see him knock out Umar and completely be on the optimal lineup. For sure. Yeah, he's a top-notch fighter when you do play an underdog like that. No, you're done. Sorry. When you do play an underdog that's such a big underdog like this, you want him to be elite.

That is what Song Yedong is. If he can keep it on the feet, which is a lot bigger if than I expect, yeah, he could piece up Umar, go to the light kicks. Nurmagomedov, though, it's just not something I bet against. And it's been profitable going about that. So I'm going to continue to play a lot of Umar and be underweightUnderweightYou are underweight in DFS when a player, team stack or lineup combination appears in a smaller percentage of your entries than in the contest field's entries.Compare the same contest, format and roster slot. Use projected ownership before lock, then check actual ownership afterward to see whether your intended underweight stance held.Read the full definition of Underweight on his opponents. That is all thirteen fights. Again, this is in Shanghai, China at three a.m. Eastern.

So make sure you do get all your lineups in Friday night. All of our content will be uploaded in the SaberSim projectionsProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. We are just waiting on FanDuel to add Louis Say and Levi Rodriguez, which is our favorite fight to target on the card. So come on, FanDuel. Get that up. I got nothing more to add. Always love talking fights with you. I think this could be a sneaky good card in terms of violence. If you're watching it, definitely have some fun.

I will probably be trying to wake up to a sweat over here. Good luck, Big Marley. Any final thoughts from you? Yeah, man. I hope to wake up to a sweat as well. I hate when the cards are at three a.m. There's just no way I'm going to wake up that early. But I'm cool missing those, you know, first three fights.

Hopefully I wake up to that Woods and Jenkins fight with a little bit of I don't know if I'll have a sweat unless I guess Louie or Santiago. I don't know. We'll see about it at that point. Maybe I'll wake up later. But China card, I'm going to need a sweat for it to be interesting. So good luck to you, Title. Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it. Absolutely. I'll probably be waking up maybe the Hassan fight, maybe Sumadarji. I don't know.

The little one has been up a lot, starting to – teeth starting to pop through. But the wife has been a trooper taking care of most of it. So maybe I'll take a shift and watch it or something trying to get him down. But we'll see. Appreciate everyone hanging out. Hit that like. Hit that subscribe. On the way out, NFL less than two weeks away. Definitely get over to Shippenation.com. Check out all of our packages, NFL only. Five days for nineteen dollars.

We also do have single sport MMA if you just play MMA and want to join. MMA goes on pretty much every single week. So you cannot beat that deal. Awesome stuff. Good luck this week in Big Marley. You enjoy the week for Big Marley. I'm Titletown. Good luck. Be safe. Peace.