UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

You talked about partners minus six hundred. He's even greater right now. But no other favorite is greater than minus three sixty besides the main events. And he is the highest ownedOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, in my opinion, at $9,500. Plenty of people will pay for him. There's enough dogs in the slate. Mid-tier is pretty solid to come through. But yeah, that's how I'm seeing it.

Outside of the main event favorite and partners, I think it is going to be relatively spread out, which is what I like to see for DFS. Any broad slate for you before we go fight by fight? No, I think that's probably a good start. Parnas probably soaked up a lot of the ownership, but it's hard to find out where it's going to go aside from maybe him. And I do think Curtis Campbell will get a decent amount as well.

Yeah he probably does but again once you start going hardness and then campbell $9,300 $9,500 the two most expensive you kind of go down a similar path as others but let's get right into it bottom to top like usual the first fight of the night delphine benuch taking on sophia montenegro uh delphine minus one forty five montenegro plus one twenty four this is the most likely fight to go the distance on the card at minus two twenty uh delphine plus three thirty five inside the distance montenegro plus three seventy five so yeah mid-tier fight most likely go the distance on the card in a range with two mid-tier fights that are expected to finish uh for me this one I'd

Rather save the eight hundred dollars in sophia because if she wins and she shows seventy eight at least she has a chance at the optimal whether or well And on the other side for Delphine, if she does and scores seventy eight, it's hard for her to get there. So naturally, give me Sophia. Money lines relatively close or inside the distance is fine. I don't love this fight. Do you like this fight?

I don't, I don't love it, but I do think it's a way that we can get different. I'm not really impressed with either one of them, but they are both fighters who will push forward and kind of bring a pace. And I think that could make this a high volume striking match. And I also think we can see takedowns, multiple takedowns from either side in this one too.

So I just think it'll be a fun fight for as long as it lasts, probably will go to a decision. I think Montenegro is probably more dangerous early and, But then the longer the fight goes, I think it just kind of shifts into Benoitch's favor. I think she is the one that is going to have the better cardio. I think she's more durable as well. Montenegro really wears the damage as the fight moves along, too.

So I think that that'll shift the judges over to the Benoitch side. And I also think the longer it goes, the more likely Benoitch is to land a takedown. And I think she could be heavy with her volume on the ground too. So this is like my favorite get different fight on the card. Start off right away knowing where you're sitting. So I'd probably be overweight to both sides if I'm MMEing.

I would probably want to save the eight hundred dollars as well if I am just making one lineup and using this fight. All right. Yeah. So you like to fight a little more than the field is expected to like it again. I don't think much ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ goes to this one on either side. Delphine probably lower own than Sophia. Yeah, I don't hate it. Twenty teams or more. Mix in a little Delphine. I hope it is. The pace is pushed. Maybe she'll get a takedown or two.

But Sophia, our preferred play for the savings. Right in the mid tier as well this is one of the two mid-tier fights expected to finish though and man have we seen a lot of line movement oh shoot I was getting ahead of myself I mean this is one of the two fights expected to finish I was about to say the wrong name though for fight odds so we got michael El George minus one thirty Fabia sent this plus one eleven.

This fight is minus one thirty five to finish. Hopefully fight odds. There we go. Inside the distance prop individual for the El Jory side is plus one eighty five for synthesis plus two fifty round one props plus four seventy five plus six fifty. So not too much round one upside in this one, but it is a mid-tier fight like we just talked about. One hundred less. Is Michael, the fight's expected to finish. How do you compare this fight to the last fight?

What do you expect to add more of? I think that I'll probably be close to the same, but I think the field will be higher on this fight because I don't know that it's more binary, but I do look at it as Alja Rouge is the better striker in this one and Sentis is the better grappler. So it could just go either way where we get a high score if they just kind of dictate where the fight takes place. But I think it'll be back and forth.

I'm not really confident on either side of this one. Sintes being the grappler, if he wins, I think he's looking at a higher ceiling in really any of his wins because I think most of his moments would have to take place on the ground. And I think he's live for a submission really in any round as well. Al Jarreau is just a cleaner, more technical striker. I think he's a lot faster as well.

So if he can stuff takedowns, it wouldn't shock me to see him get a knockout. But if it goes the distance and it's a back and forth fight, I just don't know what kind of score we're going to get from this one. I don't even know if they'll hit a ten X. So I think with the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ already being there, I don't really want to get too overweight. I would rather get different.

On that first fight just because it should be lower ownership on both sides but I'll take out jeru I just was more impressed with his striking than I was since this is grappling Fair enough. And yeah, the props do indicate what you're thinking. So Al Jaroos is plus two seventy five by KO since it's plus eight hundred. But by submission, Al Jaroos plus nine fifty since it's plus three seventy five. So both see it as a class of styles as well.

We have a pretty close money line, a class of styles. And one guy who is the grappler is six hundred cheaper. That does lead me to the center side as my preferred play. Not the strongest lean, though. I do prefer Al Jaroos. This fight, definitely, in my opinion, is better than the first fight. The numbers, obviously, with the fight expected to finish, make sense, but this fight will be a little higher owned.

Last note I want to make in terms of Line movement, minus two-thirty, Aldridge opened up, and then shortly after, it was like two hours after, it was a coin flip at minus one-ten. Then he took money all the way to minus one-sixty-five, and Sintes got a little money back. But yeah, this line has bounced around a decent bit. Sintes, my preferred play. Montenegro, my preferred play to start it off.

Two mid-tier fighters in the seven-k range that I will be having exposure to this week. What's going on stat? Great to see you. Going to have to dabble. Going to have to dabble. No PGA NFL. Yeah. Soon though. Soon stat. You will not have to worry about that. All right. Let's keep it rolling. Next fight on the card. Umar Sy, Modestus Bukakis. Umar Sy minus two eleven. Modestus is plus one seventy eight plus one hundred for this fight to finish. C, plus-one-eighty inside the distance.

Modest is plus-three-forty. Looking at the fight to finish. Open, minus-one-ten. Now plus-one-hundred. Looking at the money line. C, open, minus-two-thirty-five. Shortly after was minus-one-seventy-five. And he has taken money since then. This is not one that I have too much interest in. If you look just on the stone, both guys are less than three-thirty. Point five significant strikes per minute. If C wins or if C's optimal, I think he has to wrestle in this one. Modestus, he probably just needs to find the chin.

I don't think either really push too much of a pace. $8,800 is expensive and a good upper tier. I guess Modestus may be your pass, but I don't really like him much since I think he loses. So I'll let you break this one down. Yeah, I think both guys are alive for a knockout and we could get a hundred plus that way, but they are just too low volume to imagine any chance at a high score.

If this fight does get extended, if it does get extended, I think that C is the better one with his wrestling potential. I think he could wrestle in all three rounds and, Land a lot of top control time. I just don't think he would be super active on the ground, even if he was in top control that long, to score a hundred plus in a decision in this one.

So I have it as a three star, but C is my preferred play of the two. I just think he has more ways to score over ten X that $8,800 salary. And then Bukowskis, I mean, he's the more technical striker with knockout power as well.

But he's just so low volume that if it makes it out of the second round, even in a third round knockout as an underdog, I wouldn't feel good about him scoring well, especially if he's going to be laying on his back the first two rounds. So probably mostly anyways, see her pass for me.

Yeah this isn't a fight where we started off with three fights that the first fight I think was okay it's gonna be a low wound at least second fight solid I think this is probably the worst fight of the three that we've talked about so far though so I won't be hoping it's a relatively slow start to the card in terms of DFS scores Now, this next fight, this is one of Big Marley's three five-star fights.

It is the second most likely to, actually, it's the most likely to finish on the card. Yeah, most likely at minus, no, excuse me, main event's the most likely, minus six hundred. Heavyweight fight, minus five hundred to finish. Mario Pinta, minus two seventy-five.

Ryan Spann, plus two twenty-eighths pinto individual inside the distance minus two thirty span plus three eighty pinto in round one plus one fifty span plus four hundred I'm not gonna lie I just think his odds are a little wide I get pinto is twelve and oh he's seven years younger his last fight was not the best of looks but I mean ryan spans he's dangerous wherever the fight goes When he is fresh early in the rounds, he could knock out Pinto.

He could grab a neck. He could do, I mean, pretty much anything. I think that Pinto can do Ryan span can do as well. Now I do worry about span as the fight goes on. Um, but yeah, seven, the one hundred, he's one of my favorite underdog plays on the slate. Almost all of his wins should be optimal. And then I'm Pinto. I mean, of course he's minus.

A two thirty inside the distance at second best on the slate behind the main event favorites. And he's plus one fifty in round one, which is the actual the best run one prop on the slate. So, yeah, it's really hard to ignore Pinto. $9,100 is a great price. OwnershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ will come with him, though. I think he'll be one of the highest on the slate. I'm hoping spans ownership stays in check. LeverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ all the upside in the world. I think the line is wide.

Give me span in this one. What about you? Yeah, I'm going to be on the Pinto side, but Spann does make a lot of sense as an underdog with a hundred point potential. I think if Spann wins, he's going to be on the optimal lineup. I think it would be ninety five or more from any Spann score. He is dangerous with submissions. He's also got knockout power in the first round, but he's just one of those guys that can fall apart.

He's not a real good wrestler. And after the first round, I just don't expect much from Spann. I think it would just shift into Pinto's favor. And I think the finish for him would be there eventually, whether it be the second round or even the third round. He could be the one mixing in takedowns. I think he is the better wrestler here. I also think he's the better striker, more knockout power. So Pinto is my pick.

I think it could be in any round for him. But for Spann, I think it's more round one or pass. But at $7,100, you'll need him if he gets it done. You're on mute. Yeah, thank you. On the laptop, it's always a little more difficult, even though I did do that last week as well. Spann took a decent amount of money on the round one prop. It opened plus five hundred, now plus four hundred. So people are seeing it the same way.

Most of Spann's win equity is going to be early when he is fresh. All right, again, appreciate everyone hanging out. All we ask is the like button and the subscribe button. It helps us out a ton. Hope everybody's ready for a great weekend. Again, it's not just MMA going on. We got college football back as well in week one. We got NASCAR on Sunday. A lot of money to be made. MLB, of course, still going on.

We would love to have you at the nation. A lot of different options.

To join and then a week from today NFL cannot wait for that massive mass surprises in week one like always all right let's go to a mid-tier fight the second most likely to go the distance on the card nor cornhole minus one twenty one claudia segula plus one oh four minus or plus one fifty five for this fight to finish cornhole plus one ninety five inside the distance segula plus six fifty I've been a little torn on this one so I'll let you go first but Like it's expected to go the distance.

Cornhole only minus one twenty one favorites. Not great. But man, to see her plus one ninety five inside the distance. That's a lot of that's a lot of inside the distance equity finish equity for a pretty short money line. So I expect low ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ on both sides. What are you going to do in this one? I'm going to be on Segula or pass for this one. I just don't really want to play cornhole.

I think if she were to get a finish, she could definitely score well, but I think that line, that sounds too low to me. I don't know that her chances are that good. I would give her the grappling edge in this one, the ground and pound edge as well. But she's too low volume on the feet. I think Segula kind of walks away with this one if it's a fifteen minute striking match. I favor Segula.

Actually, I think the line should have been flipped from the get go. So give me Segula to win. I will play some of her. I think she scored over ninety in both of her wins on DraftKings. Ninety two and ninety point four. So I'm definitely cool with either one of those scores at $7,900. I also don't think that ownership will be too high either. So Segula overweight play for me. Kornholm, likely a full fadeFadeTo fade a player is to leave him out of your lineups on purpose, usually because you expect him to be popular or you think he is a poor play.Fade with a reason, not a feeling. If you can't say why a popular player will disappoint, you're probably just giving away points.Full explanation ↗.

I always probably shop in any sports betting that you make. Obviously, MMA, though, I've talked about it before, can be one of the most, like, where you see the biggest discrepancies between MMA Some of these books like plus one ninety five, but online has for inside the distance prop. And then if you go to bet rivers, it's plus two fifty five. I mean, sixty cents. That's a lot when you're talking about that. So make sure to price shop for sure.

Plus one ninety five prop is definitely best in the market or worse in the market, depending on which way you want to look. But. That's a good number if she's going to be a, if she's going to be a, if she's going to be a, if she's going to be a, if she's going to be a, if she's going to be a, if she's going to be a, if she's going to be a, Since I'm picking Segula to win, I think the other two are losing.

She would be my favorite, but I think that they're all just kind of toss-in plays where maybe you use two of the three, maybe you get one of the three, and I feel like I'll be relying on at least one of them in most of my lineups. I think there's a handful of dogs you can play this week, but I think they are all very live to win down there. Yeah, for sure. Definitely all live.

In terms of upside, I would probably rank them Cintas, Segula, Montenegro maybe. Actually, no, I'm going to go Cintas, Montenegro, Segula for my upside. What about you? On average, if you know they win, how are you ranking the upside of them? Yeah, Cintas, then Segula, then Montenegro. Than Montenegro. I think the best Montenegro score probably beats the best Segula score because it could be a round one finish where I really don't see that too much for Segula.

But I think Segula hits ninety a lot more often in her wins than Montenegro. Makes a lot of sense for sure. All right, let's keep it rolling to another mid-tier fight. This is one of the best on the card, though. I mean, anytime you see $8,200 $8,000 and a fight minus four hundred to finish, you got to have interest. And that is what we have here. We got Mateu Duclos minus one ten Luis Duclos.

Felipe Diaz minus one oh six minus four hundred for this fight to finish. Diaz plus one ten inside the distance. Duclos plus one fifty. Now we got to talk some line movement in this one because Luis Diaz opened minus two sixty five. And then Duclos just took tons of money looking at the under and a half. It opened minus one fifteen. Now minus one thirty five. Again, both individual inside the distance props are great.

DS run one plus three hundred do close plus three twenty five. I just want to slam this fight as much as I can. When I'm in terms of picking a winner, I'm going to go with the line movement and do close. So I like that. He's also two hundred more hoping he's going to be a little lower owned. Confidence is very low, though. Again, when I see line movement that big, it means something to me.

We don't I don't know too much about either of these fighters. All I know is I want one. Probably eighty five percent plus of this fight, ideally. So what are your thoughts? Yeah, with it being right there in the mid range, I think this is the best fight to target on the card because it can really go either way. I think that Diaz is the more. Powerful guy.

I think in round one, he's live to knock Duclos out on the feet, but Diaz is the better grappler, better wrestler in this one. I think he could get a submission on the ground, maybe even a ground and pound finish. But I think round one, Diaz is more dangerous and is very live for a hundred plus points. After round one, I think that power starts to wear on Diaz and Duclos is just the better overall striker from round one to round three.

I think he just would have to weather a storm in round one and maybe come back, win round two. But I think he would just overwhelm Diaz and put him away on the feet, maybe get a couple of knockdowns on the route or on the way there. So both sides, a hundred plus upside. I would rather have, I guess I'd rather have Diaz just because he's cheaper. I think I picked him. I think he was an underdog though.

I, when I picked him, um, so it was really kind of, uh, Plus money either way for me, but I'd rather save the two hundred dollars, make some lineups I wouldn't be able to make with too close. But either way, man, just make sure you're throwing this fight into the majority of your lineups if you're if you're shooting for first.

Yeah if I had to pick one fight on the card to have a hundred percent of it is this fight for me again it's $8,200 $8,000 minus one thirty five is under one and a half like and it's tough to make a decision on which one you're having ideally I'm probably gonna be around fifty fifty or sixty forty again do close was my preferred side because of the line movement it's not a strong stance, though.

I don't feel strongly about it, but I am backing up with Big Marley, or props are backing up with Big Marley says in terms of on the mat, it is all Felipe Diaz. He's plus three fifty by sub where Duclos is plus eighteen hundred. But for KO Diaz plus two seventy five Duclos plus one seventy five. So That is a little interesting. Great to see you, Nicholas Vance. Hope you're doing well.

Hope everybody out there doing well, ready for a great week of college football, MMA, NASCAR, and MLB the last week and before NFL takes over most of our lives for the foreseeable future. All right, let's get to, I mean, usually an absolute banger. And when you see the name Trevor peak, I'm always excited for these fights or his fights.

Curtis Campbell on this three, six C Trevor peak plus two, eight, nine minus two, fifteen for this fight to finish Campbell minus one, fifty five inside the distance peak plus five, fifty Campbell round one. Hold on. Where did that go? Campbell round one plus one seventy five after opening plus one ninety five peak in round one plus twelve hundred. We haven't seen Trevor peak for a little bit. Curtis Campbell, though, he seems like I want to say the real deal. I mean, I don't know.

I'm not going to be saying he's going to be a top five fighter when it's all or in the division when it's all said and done. But man, I think he can get this fight to the mat. And when he does, I think he's going to look levels above Trevor peak. So it's a, it's Campbell for me. I think it's Campbell pretty easy. I just, I guess I'd get concerned the longer the fight goes.

If he gets it to the mat, Pete keeps getting up. He makes Campbell work. Then I could see Campbell slowing down and Peek just willing himself to a win. But yeah, I think this would be Campbell. It mainly comes down to the $9,300 price tag for me. Yeah. Another one I want to be really heavy on. I think this fight is going to go just either clearly in Campbell's favor or Peek.

Keeps getting up, wears Campbell down, and then Peek is the harder worker, the guy who will fight for your money. He's like an awkward striker, but I'd say he is the better striker, much more dangerous on the feet. I think eventually he would knock out Campbell if Campbell's not able to put him away. On the mat. But I do love the style from Campbell. He's not really looking to spend too much time on the feet.

He's going to go for takedowns early and often. If Pete gets back up, he's going to go for takedowns again. So he's just the DFS style. I really like to target. I think he could get it done in round one. And I also think he could wrestle for three rounds and just rack up top control, fight for different submissions, but clearly win all three rounds and score well. Peek was just taken down nine times in his last fight.

I think Campbell has that in play if this were to go fifteen minutes. So Campbell is one of my favorite payups, if not my favorite payup on the card. But the lineups I don't have him in, I really want to make sure I have Peek because I think one of these two is going to get a finish probably before round three and put up a big score. Yeah, and I'm hoping that there's some recency bias on this one.

Obviously, Campbell let people down last fight against Danny Silva. I do think Danny Silva is pretty good. He came in with a phenomenal game plan and put Campbell away. But Campbell still landed two takedowns in that one. I think he learns from that fight. He still is only twenty four years old. That was his first loss. And yet just peaks aggressive style, I think, should open up. Up takedowns for Campbell, and he obviously has a lot of upside.

At minus-one, fifty-five inside the distance and plus-one, seventy-five in round one. All right, we will keep it rolling to the next fight on the card. We got Daniil Donchenko taking on Punaheli Soriano. Donchenko minus-two-forty-nine. Soriano plus-two-oh-six. Minus-two-fifteen for this fight to finish. Donchenko minus-one-forty-five inside the distance. Soriano plus-four-eighty. Donchenko in round one plus-one-ninety. I mean, there's not really too much bad to say, but in this one, I don't think Donchenko is a wild man. He throws a ton of volume. Like you can see on the feet.

Soriano wrestling background kind of fell in love with his hand. Southpaw guy with power in his left hand. I think you should try and mix in takedowns in this one though, which I mean, that's what I want. I'm definitely going to play some Soriano at $7,200. Since he has power to knock anyone out and wrestle. I'm definitely going to play some Donchenko at $9,000 though, inside the distance prop. Good. Ron one prop. Good. Multiple knockdown upside volume is great.

Sorry. I don't know. It's tough. I guess that's the one concern for me, but yeah, take this one away. What are you doing in this one? Yeah, I'm going to be using both of them. I think Donchenko gets the win, though. I just think he is going to be able to keep this fight on the feet, and he is the more dangerous striker, the one who will be pushing forward and using all of his striking tools. He's nasty with elbows.

When it gets in the pocket, I think he'd really hurt Soriano. He's just a better all-around striker. Soriano's got big-time knockout power, but he's, I think, more of just a basic striker. He's the one that would be our... I don't think he's a good grappler, but I think he's the better offensive wrestler, and he could rack up multiple takedowns in this fight, maybe have success in top control. But Donchenko, man, he's nasty in top control too.

If he's able to get takedowns of his own, Soriano could be in trouble on the bottom as well. So I like both sides, assuming this fight is to end inside the distance. My worry and the reason I didn't put it as a five star would be if it goes the distance, I still favor Donchenko to win. But since he is primarily a striker, I don't know if he would pay off a $9,000 salary in a decision win.

So that's why I put it as a four star. But I mean, you could put five five star fights on this fight, I think, or on this fight card, I think. Yeah, I would also add this is a four-star. Part of it, it opened minus-two-fifty to finish, now minus-two-fifteen, and it was minus-two-fifty Monday. Now Wednesday, it's minus-two-fifteen, so over a little bit of money. And Donchenko just doesn't wrestle at a nine-K price tag.

So if he does win a decision, I do find it very hard for Donchenko to be optimal if that's the case. If Soriano wins a decision... I'm thinking it's probably coming with wrestling. Donchenko throws enough volume. I have a hard time believing he'd be like lulled in to a boring striking match. So I think that's the main thing.

Donchenko, if Soriano just continues to be very tough and hard to put away or Soriano wins round one wrestling, Donchenko off his back, Donchenko wins two and three or maybe gets a third round knockout. So at $9,000, it's not an all in fight for me. I would have it just like you do as well with a four star, but it is a good one to target. All right. Five fights left. Not my favorite to target.

I'm very curious to hear your take when it comes to this one. We got Felipe Lima minus one eighty taking that Morgan Shari a plus one fifty three plus one twenty for this fight to finish. Lima plus two forty inside the distance. Shari a plus three twenty five. My initial thought was not to have much of this fight at all. It's expected to go the distance. Neither guy throws much volume on the feet.

But then if you look at the takedowns per fifteen minutes, both guys average two. So then it's like, all right, if both guys do have some takedown upside at $8,900 $7,300 at what should be low ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ on both sides. I came around a little bit. Lima, he shot fifteen takedowns against Talbot. I love that. Even though he lost the fight, he didn't win.

If you're shooting fifteen takedowns, you're going to be someone that I'm going to have to have you in my pool at $8,900 Sharia side. I mean, he's $7,300 is the better striker and he can wrestle, maybe get reversals, whatever. So I came into this fight not expecting to have much. Now I'm probably going to cap it. Because my initial lean still doesn't think it's optimal, but I do think there's past at low ownership in chalk, your lineups to play this.

So yeah, very, very curious to hear your take on real life and DFS. What do you think of this one? Yeah, I put it as a three star because I am picking Morgan to get the win and he is only $7,300. But I do think it's I mean, it's much closer to a two star than it is a four star. And I might play it as a two star as well. I think that most of this fight probably does take place on the feet.

I think Morgan is the better striker of the two. I think he has more knockout power as well. But I think both guys are durable enough to go fifteen. Lima, he is the better grappler, in my opinion. I think both guys are decent at offensive wrestling, but Lima is just more dangerous on the ground, the more well-rounded grappler as a whole. He's just not active enough to really pay off an $8,900 salary without a finish.

I think if it goes the distance, even if he is shooting fifteen takedowns, I don't think he's going to land more than four or five of them. And I don't know that he's going to do enough on the ground. To pay off that price tag in a decision. So I'm going to be low on Lima.

I think the money line makes sense just based on his well-rounded skills, but I would still rather take my chances on Morgan because I think he is the better striker. He's the one fighting in his home country. He's going to have the crowd behind his, behind him. So at $7,300, he's one of the cheaper guys on the card that I'm really looking to go to. And one of the few guys I picked to win outright. Yeah, I can't argue that one bit.

I'll probably have, underweight this fight, I'll have probably a little more Lima than you. I mean, you might even have zero, but he shot fifteen takedowns. He has a way to get different at $8,900. We talked about Donchenko for one hundred more. We talked about Curtis Campbell. We talked about Pinto. Like, if Lima is on the optimal, that's when you're looking at five or less dupes, and you can have a lot more chalk around it, so...

Don't love the fight, but it's not a full fadeFadeTo fade a player is to leave him out of your lineups on purpose, usually because you expect him to be popular or you think he is a poor play.Fade with a reason, not a feeling. If you can't say why a popular player will disappoint, you're probably just giving away points.Full explanation ↗ for me. Next fight on the card, Lusin Keita taking on Mohamed Naimov. Keita, the second biggest favorite on the card at minus three fifty. Naimov plus two eighty minus one seventy for this fight to finish. Keita minus one thirty five inside the distance. Naimov plus six twenty five. Keita round one plus two thirty open plus two seventy five. So some money come in. Has come in on him for round one.

Also on the inside of the distance, he opened minus one-fifteen, now minus one-thirty-five. Not the best debut for Keita, losing to Nathaniel Wood. It was a close fight, though. If you want to play MMA math, you're going to pick Naimov, because Naimov beat Wood, Wood beat Keita, and now Naimov's taking on Keita as the dog. Obviously doesn't always work like that, but I'm looking at this as a striker and Kata versus a wrestler and Naimov.

Do you see it the same way and how do you think it goes down? Yeah, I think that Kata wins the striking, but if he is to lose the fight, it's probably because Naimov landed takedowns along the way. If Naimov's chin could hold up, I think he could strike with Kata, but man, Kata is just nasty. He's so explosive, so powerful. And yeah, I don't think Namov is going to eat those shots very well.

So I like Kata to get the knockout at $9,200. We need him to get the knockout, though, because he's not going to go out there and out wrestle Namov. And he's not going to be high enough volume to pay off $9,200 in a decision either. So we really need a first round knockout from Kata. Maybe that's where I would max out. My, uh, my exposure for him name of just one of those dogs that is in play.

Who's going to need to grapple to win at $7,000. If he wins, he's got a good chance of being on the optimal. It would really depend on what other dogs win as well. Like if span were to win, I think spans already on the optimal and name of would be fighting to be the second dog on there.

Uh, but at $7,000, I think he has a decent chance, so I'm not going to count them out, but I think this is closer to a three star than it is a five star for me. Okay. Yeah, I would probably agree that it's closer to three to five, but I have interest on both sides. My interest on Keita is I think he's going to be lower owned than Campbell, lower owned than the main favorite, lower owned than Pinto, lower owned than Donchenko.

So he's already going to be a way to differentiate in the upper tier. And I put the same thing in the slate plan. I want to cap him at his round one prop, which is about thirty percent. Not all round one wins will be optimal. But if I know he's getting around one win, I'll take my chances. That would I expect to be relatively low ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. Now I'm up on the other side. I do expect to be low on and his win odds.

If you look at plus two, it is twenty six percent. I mean, twenty six percent. If I know nine months winning, I think most of his wins will be optimal since I think that's going to come with a good amount of wrestling and control time. Or maybe he does big data at $7,000. I will definitely take my chances. So I'm going to be overweight nine of data around the field, maybe like nine months. My preferred play in this one.

Again, his chances of winning not great, but when he wins and at his ownership, I think he has a strong play that way. So Give me name of my preferred play. I think Kata does have solid round one upside, though, as shown with him taking money plus two seventy five now plus two thirty. I'm going to play some of this fight and I don't think the fieldThe FieldThe field is everyone else entered in a contest, the group of lineups you are competing against.Before you build, picture the typical lineup in your contest. Then decide on purpose where you'll match it and where you'll step away from it.Full explanation ↗ is going to want to get to this one too much. What's up, Lone Wolf?

Great to see you. I hope you're doing well. Before we talk about the last four fights, again, just want to head on over to the Ship It Nation homepage. You can see I love seeing this NFL-only banner because you know that means it's about that time for NFL season. Also running back Ship It Games, giving away over $45,000 in cash and prizes to be eligible to win those prizes.

You'd have to sign up for the NFL only, but I assume many of you guys are play MMA and other sports as well. So the all access you can get in, if you are a monthly all access member or above, you are also qualified for that. You can see the different packages. If you want, if you are playing multiple lineupsMulti-EntryMulti-entry means entering more than one lineup into the same contest. A contest's entry limit, such as 3, 20 or 150, sets how many lineups one user can submit.Set your total spend for the slate first, then divide it into entries. Multi-entry should spread a fixed budget across more outcomes, not raise how much you put at risk.Full explanation ↗, the more lineups core to starter, you get a hundred lineups of core, five hundred lineups with starter.

And if you want the ultimate package with the Sims and $5,000 lineups starter as well, you do get SaberSim projections and ownership. In addition to ours, so you are able to average them out and use a different set as well if you like that. If you play sports like WNBA or sports that we do not offer but SaberSim does and has projections for, you also do get that in the starter package as well.

If you join annual versus monthly, you have more savings. As you would expect, if you're just playing MMA and you want our content, Farth, Wright, single sport, MMA, you can get in for twenty nine dollars a month or with addition to SaberSim, forty nine dollars a month. Access to the Discord. Everything goes up on Friday. Projections, ownership, Slate Station, everything you need to be successful. We would love to have you at the nation again.

Definitely do join the Discord if you do join any package that is available for that. All right, three fights left. Excuse me. We got Michael Page, minus-one-fifty-nine. Nurzitan Ruziboya, plus-one-thirty-six. Plus-one-twenty for this fight to finish. The underdog in Ruziboya, better inside-the-distance profit, plus-two-fifty for Page, plus-three-fifteen. I'll let you start this one off. What do you see? I'm a long-term page fader. I'll never use him on DraftKings. So he's the first person I'm going to X out. That's where I'll start my lineups.

If he is to get a first-round win really in any fight, you'll know you're not going to see me towards the top. But he's won like four of his five fights. If you give him the win in the fifth one, he still averages less than fifty DraftKings points. So I just hate his style. He's got such an awkward style and he is dangerous that it really hurts his opponents as well.

So I think this will be a low volume striking match for as long as it takes place on the feet. Either guy could get a knockout. More likely it would be Page, I would think. But Ruzaboya should be looking to grapple in this one. He is the better grappler. I think he could wrestle his way to a decision or grapple his way to a submission. So I'll be on Ruzaboyev. Just not too heavy, though, just because of Paige's style. I don't feel good about Ruzaboyev winning.

I just know that I'm going to be rooting against Paige, so why not root for Ruzaboyev at the same time? I agree with all that. The only problem for Rusev is I think he's probably going to be the most popular underdog in the lower tier. When you see $7,500 and then you see, oh, he's only plus one thirty six money line. Oh, and he's only plus two fifty inside the distance opening plus two eighty.

Like all of the props have gone his way. As you see on Monday, Page was minus one eighty five. Now he's minus one fifty nine. So a lot of money has come in on the Rusev side. Moneyline, inside the distance, everything looks like a smash. For Rudy Boyov, outside of the fact of, I mean, Michael Page, like you said, Page's fighting style is the worst in the UFC, in my opinion. I mean, props to him.

His goal is to win and not take damage, and he's very good at doing that. He's just a counter-expert. He's heavy on his feet, but man, his left hand, his right hand, his kicks, you name it. On the feet, he's a very scary guy. And his opponents are scared to engage with him because they're going to get countered. And Paige's speed at thirty nine is still insane. So I'm going to be underweight.

Roozy boy, since I think he's popular and I'm just going to keep going into Paige's fighting style. Makes fights so boring. I think Page will probably win a boring decision because Roosie Boy is going to be scared to engage. Page's takedown defense is also solid, only gotten better as his career has gone on. Obviously, he and Gary beat him that way, but he still had to work really hard to do so. And I'm not going to play any Page, like you said.

I mean, the dude throws four punches every every single round, it seems. If one of them lands and he knocks them out, yeah, I'll move on to next week and be totally fine with that. So no page, underweight, roosy boy. He's a good play, money line, and inside the distance props. With that being said, though, ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, I think, will be over-owned, and that's why I plan on being under. All right, two fights left. Again, like button helps us out a ton.

Subscribe button as well. Hope everyone's excited, has some plans this week. And if not, watch some college football during the day and UFC at night. That's a good way to spend your weekend for sure. Uh-oh, co-main event time. I've been dried in this one. Far as ZM minus one forty-seven, Axel Sola plus one twenty-six, plus one thirty-five for this fight to finish. ZM plus two forty inside the distance, Axel plus three seventy-five.

I mean, man, we're hyping up ZM on the show, all of this, and then he goes out and lays an absolute egg. Against tom nolan still finds himself as a favorite with that being said though sola has been the one to take money zm opened minus and now find themselves at minus yeah I'll let you start I'll let you start and then I'll give my thoughts So I'm okay with both sides of this fight.

I think Sola is the more aggressive fighter, the guy who will probably come out hot in round one trying to get a finish. I would say he has more...

Don't know if he has more hundred point upside I just expect his round one to be more likely to happen than a ZM round one but the longer the fight goes I think Sola is the one that slows down ZM I think can keep the same pace for all fifteen minutes I like ZM to be the more technical striker probably the better wrestler at this point just more ways to win in general so I think Axel wins the first round and ZM wins the second and the third rounds, gets his hand raised via decision, and that's probably not going to cut it at $8,600.

So I lean closer to a two star than I do a four star for that reason. But I think both guys do have ninety plus upside if they're to really show up and win all three rounds or get a finish there. I just think ZM is the better, more well-rounded fighter. I just don't trust his pace really in any given fight to score well as a favorite.

So not sure what I'll do with this one, but I put Sola as my preferred play because I think more of his wins will be on the optimal lineup at $7,600 than ZM's wins at $8,600. A hundred percent. I agree with that last statement and that it also is why soul is my preferred play.

But I also think he's probably the second highest own, uh, low, lower tier fighter behind Rosie boy of like we just talked about and I'm picking ZM to win. I do like solo more than Rosie boy of though, because again, I just page makes fights so boring. Um, what would you said the, um, uh, takedown, uh, both guys, I guess, takedown prop for ZM and solo. I'd probably go like one and a half for ZM, .five for Sola. Okay.

Because, man, I think if ZM is going to be optimal in this one, I think more than likely it probably is through wrestling. Like maybe he just has four or five takedowns, seven minutes of control time. And I don't think that's the most likely path for him, but it is in play. I mean, solo like twelve and one, twenty eight years old.

His only loss was against Mason Jones, where I gave him a guy racist stock in that Mason Jones fight, even though it was a loss, comes out there and dominates his male bond theme. So it was my preferred play because he's $7,600 and $1,000 cheaper. But I am taking them to win a decision. I don't love Zia much, though. He burned us last time. I'm not jumping off the bandwagon.

I still do think he's a good fighter, well-rounded fighter, going to get back on track. But for DFS, he's not my favorite this week in this matchup with the fight expected to go the distance.

Right let's head to the main events the biggest favorite the highest price UFC debut is saladine harness minus six twenty five taking on dan hooker plus four fifty minus six hundred for this fight to finish harness minus three fifteen inside the distance hooker plus five hundred harness in round one is plus two hundred so I know I keep butchering the dude's name, Parnas. That's what I'm calling him right now.

You can correct it, but he has the best inside the distance prop on the slates. However, he has the second best round one prop at plus two hundred. How does that make sense? You might wonder. Obviously, this fight has twenty five minutes or could go twenty five minutes where the Pinto fights cannot. But what are your thoughts on this one? Are you going to play any Dan Hangman hooker? How much Parnas do you think you get with him being the chalkiest on the card?

No, I doubt I would play hooker. I think he would really just have to... Turn this fight into a war and end up knocking out Parnas to, to get his hand raised here. I just don't know that at this stage in his career, he's going to be able to do that. I think Parnas is just the better all around striker. His kicks are way better. He's a lot faster. He's got nasty body shots.

So I think he probably would win the striking, but he's got an even bigger edge on the ground. I think he'd go out there and wrestle, get a submission in any round and, But if he wanted to wrestle for five rounds, I think he could dominate Hooker that way, too. So he can really win this fight by any method. He just doesn't want to turn this into a dogfight because that would give Hooker a chance.

And maybe in his home country, maybe he's more likely to do that. I think minus six hundred could be a little bit wide for a debut against a guy like Hooker. But he is the full package. I think he is going to make a lot of noise in the UFC. And this is a good matchup for his first fight. So I'll definitely play him at $9,500.

I think there's enough dogs on this card where I can afford guys like him and Campbell together or him and Pinto together. So I'll get a good amount. But I think he is going to be the most owned guy on the card. So that's what makes me want to get away from it. Let me just get lower on lineups in general and go to those other guys. Let me get a Campbell and a Pinto without Parnas instead.

So that's kind of how I'm looking at it. But I do think he gets the job done, probably does score well in the process. Yeah. Like when I'm playing partners, I'm more likely to play that. Like, uh, Sophia and Delphine fight, uh, Omar sign, Modesta's fight, cornhole Segula.

That's kind of like when we're talking about playing nine mob, when you are playing a lot of chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗, that's when you go and mix in those lower own fights that you still have some interest in. And then when you're playing Dan hooker, you can eat all the chalk in every single spot. I do think like, The larger the field stuff, the more interesting hooker is since the leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ he will offer. But obviously he's not expected to win very much at plus or a fifty.

I think partners is probably going to be about fifty percent, maybe a little more. I'm probably going to be somewhere around there, but I am. I am definitely fine dropping partners down to Campbell partners down to Pinto. Even Parnas down to Cata, that doesn't feel as good. But if I'm really chalky in other spots, leaving that three hundred, there is outs in the upper tier where people can outscore Parnas and you can leave a little bit of money there. Do you agree with that?

Are you going to be leaving a couple hundred, you think, dropping Parnas to others in the upper tier? Um, yeah, I was, I was actually trying to build a lineup right now. Um, man, I think there's so many underdogs I can click where it could lead me to more Parnas, but I think I might try to avoid maybe the sherry is the, the, the lower, uh, the lower priced ones that almost forced me up there instead.

And kind of hang out more in the mid-range and try to avoid him that way. But I do think you could go to Kieda just for a game theory, hoping that he gets that first-round knockout. Maybe Parnas gets a second-round submission and gets outscored by Kieda. But if I'm projecting points, I would definitely be projecting Parnas for more points than Kieda.

I think you could project Campbell for more points than Parnas just because his style in a win is going to have to score well. But he doesn't have five rounds to work with like Parnas does. You love Campbell this week. That's one of my takeaways coming out of the show. Big Marley definitely loves himself. Send Curtis Campbell to get back on track. Campbell will be in the first lineup I make for sure. There you go. Little spoiler from our man, Big Marley.

Again, all of our MMA content will be up on Friday. Projections, ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, they get loaded in the SaberSim, the Stone, which you're looking at. This gets color-coded. You can see all of these colors pop up. Ownership, projections, what they weigh in at. This is all filled out. The Slate Station, the Stone, we showed it off a little bit last week. You'll be able to sort by anything. If you know you're going to go... Donchenko, Harness, then you're like, all right, I'll go Ruzy Boya.

Then you can show, it's going to show what your ownership is, how many fantasy points, when everything is loaded there, how much money you have for the rest of your three spots, all that good stuff. So everything you need in MMA to be successful. And then, of course, the Slate Station, which has cores and breakdown for all of the fights right there, is over here at Chippenation. Again, go to Join the Nation. Let me just share this one more time. Join the Nation, bottom left.

You can get in five days for nineteen dollars. If you want to give us a try, all the sports above you get Discord and SaberSim. You know, you'll be with us for the long haul, monthly options, annual, even cheaper. And then for the single sport far right, if you're just playing MMA, you can find us there as well. With SaberSim, without SaberSim, all of that good stuff. Fingers crossed we keep all thirteen fights. And if we do, I think it's a pretty good BFS card.

Again, college football, MLB and MMA all on Saturday. A lot of money to be made. NASCAR on Sunday. Next thing you know, NFL will be on our screens. Cannot wait for that. Final thoughts, Big Marley, before we get on out of here. Yeah, I actually think it's a fourteen fight card. They have an opponent for Nathaniel Wood, I believe. Um, so no matter what, I would think we get at least thirteen if that fight is still going. Uh, I did look into it.

So just a quick, quick hit on that. I think that the opponent, I forget his name, um, uh, freaking, uh, Druska. It's a Pavel and Druska. Yeah, he's eight. No, looks like a decent, decent young fighter. I think he is live to get a knockout really with either either hand in the first round because Wood is hittable early. Takes a little bit to get going. But after the first round, Wood is just one of my favorite all around fighters. So I'm definitely picking Wood to win.

I think he'll be $9,400. Um, another way that you can get, get away from Parnas on this card too. I think wood is a three rounds of high action. He can mix in takedowns. He can get a knockout submission or even score well in a decision, but, uh, looking forward to this card. I think we've got a lot of fights. Good luck to you. Title. Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it. Yeah, I was looking at that on fight odds.

I'm glad you mentioned that before we do get on out of here. So, yeah, he's every single salary is taken besides the $9,400 one all the way down to the eighty one. So I think he will be that he is only minus two eighty. So I do think that would keep his ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗.

In check a little bit multiple under or multiple people priced below him will have better money line values and I do not see any props out for the fight yet though but would open minus three fifty now find themselves at minus two eighty so pavel has taken a little money since open but man let's go fourteen fights that makes me even more excited again the stone Slate Station everything will be updated for that fight as well and we'll wait for DraftKings and FanDuel to put out prices but great call right there Awesome stuff, Big Marley.

Always love talking fights with you. Hope to see some Ship It Nation logos at the top of the leaderboard come Saturday night. We're Big Marley on Titletown. Good luck. Be safe. Peace.