UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

First fight of the night, big favorite, Chanel Dyer, minus seven fifty, taking on Elise Reid, plus five thirty four, minus one ninety for this fight to finish. Dyer, minus one eighty inside the distance. Reid, plus $1,000. Dyer, round one, plus one eighty five. I mean, yeah, she should win. I think she probably gets a knockout, but she's $9,700. So what do you plan on doing at that price tag? Yeah. Rare one-star fight.

Uh, even with the hundred and fifty lineups, I would completely fade this fight. Um, I don't know that I've ever had a one-star fight end up on the optimal lineup either. So I feel like it's a, it's a good fate. I mean, a good tale on this one. Dyer should get the win. This is a striking match really either way, but Dyer is just so much faster. She's younger, just the cleaner overall striker.

But I feel like she's going to spend a lot of time kind of dancing around. It's not going to be a really high volume in the pocket type of fight. And once you get over $9,500, it's really tough to justify paying that price. So $9,700 for Dyer. She had a finish in her last fight. She only scored ninety five point eight.

If you give her ninety five point eight, I have a really good feeling she's not going to be on the optimal lineup at $9,700. So I'm going to full fadeFadeTo fade a player is to leave him out of your lineups on purpose, usually because you expect him to be popular or you think he is a poor play.Fade with a reason, not a feeling. If you can't say why a popular player will disappoint, you're probably just giving away points.Full explanation ↗ her at least read. I mean, if you think she has a chance, you could play her. But I put five stars for the dire side just as a way to get different. If I had to use this fight, I would still rather take dire because no one's going to be on her.

I think I have her as my like. Third or fourth I think the third highest or least owned fighter on the card so that's the only reason to play Dyer and I think she could get a finish but I have her winning all three rounds and in a decision I just don't know that there's any chance she can get there Yeah, I agree with you. I'm not playing Elyse Reed. I'm not playing Dyer. It's been a $9,600 man. Then Oroby loses last week.

It's been really difficult for me in the $9,600 price range. Thankfully, Dyer's $9,700. I feel I feel good that she'll win. She won't be optimal and we can move on from that fight. Ah, man, I did a, did us a disservice. Our man, Kenny W shout out to him winning the MMA world championship and our man sheets take second. Those two were really close. So shout out to both of you guys.

Matt K I think was like fourth or fifth phenomenal showing from many of the Ship It Nation members. Kenny wins it. Jalen Turner, the leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ play. Congrats. Awesome stuff right there. All right. Yep. Congrats for sure. Next fight on the slate. And again, this bout order is for Monday. That's when I put these odds and the pricing up and everything. But it might have changed a little bit. But Jackson McVay and Wesley Schultz. Minus one seventy McVay. Plus one forty nine is Schultz.

Minus four fifty for this fight to finish. McVay minus one ten inside the distance. Schultz plus one seventy five. McVay round one plus one eighty five. Schultz round one. Plus three hundred under one and a half minus one eighty. I mean, all of these just slam dunk plays. If you fade the main event, I think you're forced to play this fight. I mean, both of them will be high on. Ideally, I would play both McVay, Schultz and Hernandez Rodriguez.

But if you do that, you have to be kind of worried what you're doing in your other spots. But If we keep all thirteen fights, I think ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ will be spread out enough. I just want to jam this fight even at high ownership. And what are your thoughts? But then I see you have Wes Schultz as your preferred play, it looks like. So are you picking him to win? I am picking him to win, but not with any real confidence.

I just think that he is a very slick grappler. And if this fight does hit the ground, there's just a lot of ways he can submit McVay. And we've seen McVay submitted as well. So that's why I have Schultz as my four star. But if you're making a lot of lineups, I would not be against having more McVay than than having Schultz, because if there's Um, really a first round finished. Most of that equity I think is to McVay.

He is the better striker, the more dangerous striker. And he's also nasty in the clinch as well. I just don't think Schultz can hang with them on the feet, but on the ground early in the fight, maybe it could go a little bit either way, but I trust Schultz the longer the fight goes. And I do think he is just a better, more skilled submission grappler in this one. And he could get a finish in the first round.

Or the third round at $7,500. I'm really cool with either one of them. But McVay, I think almost all of his win equity is in the first eight minutes or so of this fight, because if he is as aggressive as he usually is and he's fighting off takedowns, I just think he's going to start to slow down as the fight moves along. And then the submissions could be easier for Schultz. So.

Schultz is the first underdog on this card I'm picking to win. I mean, you can kind of tell the other ones I'm picking as well, but I feel really good about targeting this fight in general. So I'll have a lot of Schultz. Yeah, I want a bunch of both sides. But everything you said, I agree with. McVay, all nine of his pro fights have ended inside the distance. Eight of those nine have ended in round one.

Ten of Schultz's twelve fights ended inside the distance. McVay, better striker. Schultz, better grappler. Under, or it was minus four hundred on Monday. Now it's minus four fifty to finish. I just think everything's pointing in the direction for this fight to score well. So I'll have a lot of it. I pick McVay, but don't mind Schultz for the savings. Next fight on the card, we have Gage Young taking on Stanley Dornesevil. You know how to pronounce his last name? Dorsanevil? I'm not sure.

I would call him Stan. Yeah, I'm going Stan. Stan the man. Gage Young taking on Stan the man. Minus one fifty, Young. Plus one thirty, Stan. Plus one fifteen for this fight to finish. Young, plus two thirty-five inside the distance. Stan, plus three twenty-five. This is one of the three fights expected to go the distance. It's also in the mid-tier if you look at other mid-tier fights on this card. Shamil, Kennedy, minus four hundred to finish. Um... Petrino Spivak minus one sixty to finish.

Then if you want to look at right above that, Hernandez Rodriguez minus three twenty five to finish. So for all for that reason, it's pretty tough for me to get to this fight in the mid tier. It will get you different. Another one. Excuse me. Nasrat Chris Padilla also expected to go the distance. I think it's clear that Young and Stan and then Nasrat Padilla are the two mid tier fights that I don't have much interest in.

I think the field sees it the same, but. I think I'd rather just to be honest, go McVay or plug in McVay, drop McVay to Schultz, leave twelve hundred than I would try to play those other fights to get different. So I don't love the upside. What are your what's your take? I'm actually not against this fight, especially as a mid-range fight. I think this could be one of the higher volume fights on both sides. I liked what I saw from Stan.

He looks like he's got good hands. He'll like to stand in the pocket and trade. And Young is kind of the same way. And also, both guys are willing to mix in takedowns. Stan was going for submissions right away as soon as he would get a takedown. So... I like the underdog again in this one. I just think the overall skills. He is young. He's fought less competition. He doesn't have the UFC experience yet, but just watching him.

And I thought Stan looked pretty dang good. The one worry I would say is I think it was his most previous fight. I think they mentioned that he was a big underdog in that fight, and I thought he was clearly winning the whole thing, but just him being an underdog going in had me thinking, man, what did people see in this other guy, or are they really not believing in Stan here? Because I think he is UFC talent.

I think he could mix in a couple takedowns here. I think he could get a knockout. I even think he could get a submission, so... I'm picking Stan to win. But again, I mean, I haven't bet him yet. I don't know that I'm that confident in him. I would play young as well because he is the more experienced one. He's got knockout power. He'll go for submissions and takedowns as well.

So I think this is a sneaky fight in the mid range where either guy has ninety plus, maybe even a hundred plus potential. Okay, I'm probably going to raise my interest a little bit. And you're talking about Stan. He has taken money since open. Gage Young open minus two. He just froze up. Oh, I don't know if we lost me or if we lost title. I hear you. You don't hear me. I hear you now. There you are. You're back. All right, cool.

Oh, my gosh, that's annoying. I hear you. I heard you the whole time. You got me. You sure? Yeah, yeah. Yep, hopefully they do. Let us know in chat if you can hear them. All right, let me know in chat. What I was saying is... All right, cool. I don't know what's going on. What I was saying is you like Stan the underdog. Gage Young, that's where the money's gone, too. Gage Young opened minus-two-fifty, now all the way down to minus-one-fifty.

So Stan taking quite a bit. He is four hundred dollars cheaper. He's my preferred play in this one as well. But with all that being said, on Monday, Gage Young was minus-one-twenty-three. So Stan took money to start, and then Gage has got a little buyback since early in the week. Good. All right. We're both good. Thank you. Thank you. All right, let's get to the next fight on the card. What's going on, Jeffrey Blue? What's going on, Bryant? What's going on, Mike Spencer?

Great to see you guys. I didn't read this last anomaly. My two-big underdog winning wasn't us. Great work. I appreciate that. Yeah, last week was crazy. Charles Johnson won two as the dog, but Stolzfus as a big dog. And then who was the other one? Chidi. Wells. Jeremiah didn't score great, but he killed the card with Oroba. Yeah, he beat Oroba. He wasn't optimal, though. Chidi was also optimal. So, yeah, a good amount of dogs on last week's card.

All right, we will keep it rolling to the next fight. The second biggest favorite on the card and the second highest price. We got Marcio Barbosa taking on Ryan Kuse. Barbosa minus for eight fifty. Kuse plus five eighty six. Nineteen or nineteen.

Minus fourteen hundred for this fight to finish Barbosa minus seven hundred inside the distance Q's plus seven hundred Barbosa round one minus one seventy five what are your thoughts on Wint versus Barbosa if you have to choose and then yeah I guess just how much you see yourself getting at $9,800 Yeah, so this is a tough one. I mean, Barbosa's just super dangerous.

He is aggressive early in fights, and he throws mean hooks, and I think he could knock out the majority of this division if they fight the fight he wants to fight. And Kuz does look like a striker overall, so I do think he is going to want to Strike at first, but he should be the one looking for takedowns in this one. That's what would make him more alive to win.

But yeah, it's just about, in my opinion, does Barbosa score enough at $9,800? And if he does, does he beat Wendt? I prefer Wendt. I just think that Wendt is likely to score within sixty seconds or to win this fight within sixty seconds. Whereas Barbosa, I don't I don't know that he is even. A bet I would want to make at like plus four hundred to win and see. I don't know what the line is, but to win within that first minute.

And I think at $9,800, you need to win in the first minute to be on the optimal lineup because he's not one of those guys is going to go in there, rack up twenty takedowns and score one hundred and forty. It's all about his first round knockout equity. And I think he gets the knockout in the first round, but that probably puts him at one hundred One hundred and ten or so points in at $9,800.

I don't think one hundred and ten is going to cut it, especially if Wint scores one hundred and twenty eight. So I prefer Wint. I doubt I get to Barbosa. The more lineups I make, the more willing I am. But it would probably be because I couldn't afford Wint and I had $9,800 left or whatever. So, yeah, give me Barbosa to win in the first round and just not score enough.

I'll X out Kuse just because I don't think I'll have enough lineups. I think with with one hundred and fifty, I'd keep him in my pool. I do think he's more alive than Vegas does. But Barbosa is just he's just a mean looking dude. And I think this is a fight that the UFC wants him to win. Yeah, but Bost is going to knock him out, I think.

But I totally agree with you where if I'm spending anyone, if I could choose, I think I'd just be Wint because I'm on the same page.

I think the first-minute bonus is very much in play, whereas I think it's a little – a lot more it's a lot harder I think for for barbosa to get there because I don't know if he's just gonna like blast forward I don't think um wince is gonna worry about chapman what he brings on the other side one bit whereas yeah cuse is a little better I don't think barbosa's gonna wrestle if it gets outside the first minute even at one time which is really good not sure it's enough at $9,800 so I don't love it.

I do prefer him to Dyer though. If I have to choose, what about you? Absolutely. Yeah. Dyer's my least favorite pick on the entire, I mean, aside from at least read, I suppose, but I will not touch Dyer. If you, If I was playing one hundred and fifty with my lineups and your lineups, I'm not touching Dyer. Fair enough. Next fight on the card. Closest line fight right now. Nazareth Hack Press. Chris Padilla minus one fifteen. Nazareth minus one oh five.

Padilla plus one thirty five for this fight to finish. Both fighters are plus three hundred inside the distance. So on Monday it was plus one twenty to finish. Now plus one thirty five. So the over has taken some money and that leaves us at the most likely fight.

To go the distance on the card so the closest fight so you have to get the pick the closest in a coin flip then you have to get the fight the most likely to go the distance to be optimal it is a mid-tier fight though but that is not a combination I like messing with too much so I'd probably cap them right around both of their inside the distance props which is plus three hundred um yeah what is your take on this fight Yeah, this would be more of like an MME fight for me.

The more lineups I'm making, the more interested I would be. But with a single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ or like just hand building lineups, I'm not really trying to click either one of these guys because I don't have a strong lean either way. I am picking Hack Brass because I think he is just the more proven, the higher paced striker. And I do think this will be mostly a striking match. But Padilla is the more dangerous grappler, more likely wrestler as well. He's two hundred dollars cheaper.

The line is basically a pick them. So I just don't really feel good about making a hack press lineup. And then in my mind, I'll be telling myself, man, should we just double this up and do Padilla as well. So that's my thing that's keeping me away from it as well as I like that Stan Dorsanoville or whatever his name is more than both of these guys and probably Young as well. I like that fight in general more than this fight.

And since I think this fight plays out on the feet, I have it going the distance as well. I just don't think either one of them has a hundred point potential in a decision win, unless it is a crazy high volume in the pocket type of fight. And I just doubt that that's the case. I think it'll be a fairly technical, some volume, but I mean, they both average over six strikes per minute.

I just don't think that's what we're going to see in this matchup. I think it'll be a more technical fight. And in a decision, I would think they're more flirting with ten ten X. And I don't think ten X is going to cut it on this card. But give me hack pressed as my preferred play and my pick to win. Yeah, this is by probably second least favorite on the card behind Dyer Reed.

I don't plan on playing any in like fifteen or less, twenty or less. I prefer every other mid-tier fight, especially after you talked the Gage Young-Stan fight up a little bit. This makes me actually like that made me like this fight even less. And I'll get some little more exposureExposureExposure is the percentage of your lineups in a contest, or across a slate, that include a particular player, team or stack.Set exposure caps before you build, not after. Decide the most you're willing to have on any one player, then let your lineups fill in around those limits.Full explanation ↗ to that Young-Stan fight. We do take it right to another mid-tier fight, though, that you have a five-star, and it's minus-four-hundred. Actually, it was minus-four-hundred to finish on Monday. Now it's minus-three-fifty.

Shamil Gazi, minus-one-thirty-five. Kennedy Nijeku, plus-one-fifteen. Both guys are, like I said, minus three-fifty for this fight to finish. Gazeve plus one-fifteen inside the distance. Kennedy plus one-fifty-five inside the distance. Gazeve around one plus two-sixty-five. Kennedy plus four-fifty. I shouldn't say a little surprised, but you have this as a five-star. Would you be shocked to see it be...

More slow paced early with kennedy worried

About kazee's power they tit for tat and then second round it like picks up a little bit and the over taking the money or taking some money a little bit not a bunch but minus four fifty now minus or minus four hundred now minus three fifty that's the only reason sometimes at heavyweight I worry about that a little bit being worried about each other's power but uh any thoughts on that and then I see you have kennedy as three or four star versus two for shamil um see I was uh going back between four star and five star on this fight but what made me side with five stars I think that um if kazeev wins it's likely in round one he'll come out he'll

Throw bombs trying to get the knockout early and if that doesn't happen he'll go for a takedown and I think round one if he gets a takedown I think he could finish kennedy on the ground so most of Because these wins, I think, are going to score a hundred or more. And at $8,400, that's pretty dang good. But Kennedy, after the first, you know, opening minutes, I think Gazeev is likely to slow down.

And I think Kennedy can go a hard three rounds. And the longer it goes, the more I like Kennedy, but I just don't think it's going to go the distance. I think he would finish Gazeve at some point. And even in the second round as an underdog, I'm absolutely cool with Kennedy getting the second round finish.

So even if he loses the first and gets kind of dominated, I feel like we're probably going to get a knockout and a knockdown along the way in that second round. So at $7,800, I'm cool with it. I think the price is what justified the five stars for me. And this would be a mid range that I would really want to target because I think both sides have ninety plus upside.

It could be a Kennedy first round knockout or even if Gazeev slows down, I think Kennedy could really put it on him and just dominate him on the feet with volume along with the knockdown and knockout as well. So I just think this is a fight I want to target either side of, but I think it's going to last more than the one round. Maybe. I mean, the longer it goes, the less I like Gazeve.

So that's why I picked Kennedy as my pick to win my preferred play. And if I'm going to try and get to a $9,900 or $9,800, I'm going to have to be shoving some underdogs in there. And Kennedy would be my guy.

Yeah I'm with you I'm picking kennedy to win too I just think he has more pass to win if the longer the fight goes the more it benefits him has a pretty big reach advantage shamil definitely has the more round one power and very well just could flatline kennedy didn't like kennedy losing the osp but I think kennedy the speed advantage the length advantage And I think you can find a way to win for six hundred cheaper.

And it is fine, in my opinion, going Gazeve, taking Gazeve out, going Kennedy and leaving six hundred plus in shock your lineups. All right. Excuse me. Before we go to the next fight, let's hop over to the Ship It Nation homepage. As you can see, the all access special, usually ninety nine dollars, now forty nine dollars for your first month. Gets you all the sports above. NFL will be here before you know it. College football will be here even sooner. And I cannot wait for college football.

I really fell in love with it last year. PGA going on MLB, MMA and NASCAR. I can click the banner right here. Otherwise, bottom left, join the nation.

There's some other deals, as you can see, the all access, the five-day trial for nineteen dollars you can see the monthly right here if you go over and you say you just play MLB single sports or excuse me if you just play MMA single sport MMA whatever sport you do play you can get in for twenty nine dollars for the month annual gets even cheaper and MMA goes on pretty much every single week so we would love to have you you also are able to get in the Discord for all of those sports if you do join All right, next fight on the card, we have Leron Douglas taking on Jamal Emers.

Douglas minus .-. Emers plus .-. This fight is minus .- to finish. Douglas minus .- inside the distance. Emers plus .-. Douglas round one, minus .-. And that's a lot of line movement. His round one prop was plus .- at open. Now minus .-. Yeah, sign me up for some...

Douglas $9,300 I think is too cheap you can plug in any of these guys dyer barbosa uh even wint I think if I mean wint doesn't isn't guaranteed to get the first minute bonus if he doesn't I think douglas has just as much upside so yeah I think he's a phenomenal phenomenal play and with his ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ I think probably being elevated I don't hate jamal emmers as well he's a talented fighter um he'll compete minute to minute so yeah I'm in on both sides of this one Absolutely.

This is one of my favorite fights to target. I think almost all the first round equity is on the Douglas side. He is an aggressive striker. He's going to be trying to knock Emmer's head off. And Emmer's does have a questionable chin. Plus, he's like he's thirty seven years old, getting up there in age, taking damage over his career. So I think if this fight's playing out on the feet, Emmer's going to get knocked out. And I think minus one twenty five.

I think there's value in that round one prop for Douglas because I do think it's going to be a first round knockout. What would stop it from being a first round knockout would be Emmer's wrestling ability. And if he does get Douglas out of the first round because he wrestles him, I think he's likely to wrestle him in the second as well and also in the third. And Emmer's has a hundred and twenty point upside at $6,900. So he's my favorite punt on the card.

But give me Douglas to knock him out in the first couple minutes of this fight. I just think he's going to be aggressive, hunting for that knockout. And again, I think the UFC probably wants Douglas to get that knockout as well. They gave him a Rosa in his first matchup, super questionable chin. Now he's got a tougher matchup here, but same path to victory, same issue for the opponent. I think the UFC wants Douglas to get that first round knockout.

Yeah, you said it great, but I do think Emers is an elite play at lower ownership, at good leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ with a lot of upside. You can see on the stone, five point one significant strikes per minute, two point five nine takedowns per fifteen for Emers. All right, let's get to the biggest favorite on the card and the highest priced. That is Anthony Wint, minus $1,000, taking on Terrence Chapman, plus six sixty one. This fight is minus $1,000 to finish.

Wint, minus eight fifty inside the distance. Chapman, plus $1,000. Wint in round one, minus two fifty. Open, minus two fifteen. We already kind of talked about it. Like, we think he has... Legit, sixty-second knockout potential. With that being said, I think there's paths where he gets that and still isn't optimal, scoring a hundred twenty-eight. When that's the case, it always makes it more difficult.

With that being said, if I knew he'd get a first-minute bonus, I'd still probably want at least fifty percent. I don't see myself playing fifty percent. I don't think he's minus or plus a Plus one hundred or whatever to get a finish or in this first sixty seconds, I think is you might be able to find that prop. Actually, I think you found it before. But what I put sixty seconds at. Plus three hundred plus two fifty. What would you put it at?

I would imagine that's closer to what it is. I think he's got it's like personally, I would make it closer to plus two hundred because. He has four wins within the first forty five seconds of fights. And on the Chapman side, I mean, really, the only thing that impressed me about Chapman was I thought he had pretty good leg kicks. So if Wynn doesn't want to get kicked in his leg, just pressure him right away. And Wynn is dangerous, man.

This guy has all the power, all the muscle. And if he doesn't want to just go in throwing hands, he could go in and take Chapman down and get a ground and pound knockout within the first sixty seconds as well. He's just... Imposing, powerful, big, and they're throwing him in like a week after he had the Dana White's Contender Series fight, which he won in the first sixty seconds. So I feel like the UFC wants him to do the exact same thing.

You go out there, get a win in the first sixty seconds, and you got a name right away. So I think he's actually very likely to win in the first sixty seconds of this fight. But I also don't know that we're completely dead if he doesn't because he is a good wrestler, and I think he could... Maybe land a knock-down, takedowns, and then just have some serious ground-up.

I don't know that Chapman can – can withstand all of that ground and pound for it to be just climbing up the numbers. So we probably at $9,900, I would imagine, need the quick win. But he just has the type of game where he could dominate the fight on the ground as well. And that's that scores well. So I like went. I don't like $9,900. I think Douglas is just so much more affordable.

That's why I put this fight as a three-star and the other one as a five-star. And you also don't have to hunt for as many underdogs if you're playing Douglas. So if you can afford Wendt, go for it. Get all you can afford. I'm going to X Chapman out of my lineups for sure. But $9,900 is I mean, we've only seen that a couple of times and I doubt it ended up on the optimal.

If you were playing, how much do you think you'd have? If I was playing one hundred and fifty. Seventy five. Seventy five. I would imagine like over thirty percent. But I probably want to cap it around. Fifty, no more than sixty percent, because you're just you really need your underdogs to come through. And I like a handful of underdogs on this card. I think a lot of them have have high possible scores, too.

But $9,900, even if you get like you mentioned, even if he gets that quick win bonus, it's not guaranteed to be on there, which at most other prices you would be. So I'm not sure, man. I need to start. I need to mess with my lineups tonight, obviously, because I'm not going to be able to do it tomorrow. So I'll know more if you guys want to hit me up in Discord.

But I think my I'm probably going to be hand building. So my my path. With hand building, they'll be like, all right, let's start this lineup with Wint, see what we can do. And if it just isn't possible, I'm going to cut Wint out. It'll go down to Douglas. And I feel like I'll like the lineup very similar.

So I don't think he's a must have, but I also, I feel like he is the like first or second, most likely that we've ever talked about on this show to win in the first sixty seconds. Yeah, that makes sense. It's a lot of praise, but I think it mainly shows just how bad Chapman might be as well. Derek is kind of talking about that as well. That made me laugh. What's going on, G. Pfeiffer? Great to see you. All right, five fights left.

As you can see on the stone, Big Marley does not have too much interest in the next couple. Carly Giudice, minus-six-twenty-five. Just a lot. Chavez plus four fifty minus one ten for this fight to finish. Judy's plus one ten inside the distance. Chavez plus eight fifty. Judy's around one plus three twenty five. She opened plus three fifty. I don't know. I mean, plus three twenty five is twenty three and a half percent in round one.

Taking a look at our projected ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ right now, it's not out yet, but I will say we have Judy's decent bit under that number for her on one prop. I don't hate it. I mean, I think I'd rather play Judice than I would rather play Judice than Dyer. I think I'd rather play Judice than Barbosa. And I might even rather play Judice than Wint because that is a significant five hundred dollar price difference.

I'm not saying plug in Wint, drop to Judice and make her beat him one on one, but play Judice and leave three hundred or something I think is more reasonable. And yeah, I mean, she can throw volume. Look at that on the stone. So Judice, my preferred play. Doesn't look like you love it much. I probably like it more than you. I'm not sure about the Chavez side. I'll let you talk about this one.

Yeah, the $9,400 is what's taking me away from Judy. So I like went more. I would try to find five hundred dollars to get to went definitely like Judy's more than dire. I think Barbosa is kind of even for me. But Chavez is. I mean, she's really didn't impress me. I think she's going to be a lot slower. Maybe she's got a little bit of power.

She could possibly test Judy's his chin, but I think more likely she should look to wrestle in this matchup. I just don't think that she can really dictate over the course of three rounds where this fight's going to play, uh, take place. And I think Judy's probably doubles or triples are up on volume. And maybe that volume adds up and put Chavez away. That's probably what we need.

I just don't think Judy's will have enough volume to, to have any real chance at being on the optimal lineup in a decision. So it's really like we're targeting a first or a second round knockout from a hundred and twenty five pound woman. I mean, she's gotten them before, but I just don't want to keep relying on that. So I would rather pay a hundred less for Douglas. And that's going to take away from my Judy's exposure right there. So.

I don't think I'm going to get so much of this fight, but I don't think Judy's will have too much ownership. And the more lineups I make, the more interested I would be, be just to be a little bit contrary. And I think there are enough underdogs for me to afford a Judy's and a Douglas lineup. I just, I just don't like paying $9,400 for I bet she does score close to ninety points.

But do you think you think if she gets ninety four, you think that has a chance of the optimal? No, no, no. I think there's past she gets a one oh eight or one oh nine at fifteen percent, especially when I'm playing the main event, when I'm playing McVay Schultz. And then maybe I want to play a Gazeve Kennedy. It's like, oh, shoot. I'm playing the three chalkiest fights on the card. All right.

I'll play Judy's at fifteen percent as a minus six fifty favorite. That's. Twenty three percent or whatever to to win in round one. Like I used to write what you didn't think Chavez was any good. Judice at least throws volume. Maybe Chavez gets back up and Judice drops her again. I don't know. I'm taking a chance at $9,400. But yeah, I'd be I would say with a single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗, I won't have Judice. But the more lineups I make, the more I could be interested.

Yeah, that makes sense for sure. All right, let's get to the next fight. Anytime I see Mason Jones, I get very excited. He's minus three hundred taking on Markel Medeiros. Plus two forty five plus one thirty for this fight to finish. Mason Jones plus one eighty five inside the distance. Medeiros plus five twenty five. Mason Jones round one. Plus a five hundred. Not the best round one prop, but man, I love Mason Jones. He'll fight for your dollar. He can strike.

He can wrestle. His inside the distance prop has moved a decent bit. Was plus one ninety at open. Got down to plus one sixty five. Now back up to plus one eighty five. I'll let you take it away. I see a two star fight for this one. Yeah, maybe I should move it to three-star because I think you can make a case for both guys. I do love the volume and the pace from Jones.

I think he's the more well-rounded fighter, the guy who's more likely to look for takedowns and land takedowns in this fight. But at $9,000, we need him to be wrestling here because I think it's almost a toss up on the feet. I think Medeiros is the more technical striker in this one. And if it is a striking match, I think Medeiros is just live to actually win the fight and he could knock Jones out. So that's the case to play Medeiros.

But Jones has landed eight takedowns in at least two of his UFC fights. Yeah, two of his UFC fights. He scored one seventeen and one twenty six in those two fights. I mean, give me those scores all day long. I just don't think that Medeiros is going to be that easy to take down. I don't think he'll he'll take eight takedowns. I think he will have a better chance of stuffing them.

And I also think he'll have a better chance of drawing Jones into a striking match, which is what takes away from the Jones points. I don't think Jones has any real. Chance at the optimal in a striking, in a striking match, unless it's an early knockout. And I think the early knockout potential would be on more so on the Madero side, just because I think he's the cleaner fighter and the aggressiveness from Jones could work against him.

Um, but two stars might be a little bit too low for a guy with, uh, with just the pace alone that Jones can bring, and he will mix in takedowns. So I probably do need to up that three-star. But Jones is my preferred play just because of that wrestling potential. I'm picking him to win because he has more ways to win. But on the feet, man, this is more of a pick-and-fight. Yeah, no, I agree with everything you said.

That's why I'm going to play some Medeiros. I don't love his upside because I think he's going to have to be fighting off takedowns. But the line is going to be too wide if it's just on the feet. But that also does not like me. Like, it makes me like Mason Jones even more since I think it does force him to wrestle.

That's where he really unlocks his upside was minus two sixty five on Monday now he's minus three hundred so he's taking some money good inside the distance prop pushes the pace nine case a good price tag I can plug in judy's drop judy's go mason jones leave four hundred I do like mason jones quite a bit again I don't love madero's upside but when he wins he is live for a ko I think his inside the distance prop a little disrespectful Jones has a great chin, but it's been hit a lot, and Medeiros does hit hard.

So, yeah, I'm excited for this one. I think this is a good real-life fight. I don't think he gets too much ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ for DFS, and I very well might be overweight. What's up, Mateus? Good to see you. New time? No, it just worked for Big Marley and I today. It's still usually Thursdays at five forty five. But at this point, I don't know. We kind of do what fits our schedule most like first week NFL. Well, there's Wednesday and a Thursday game.

I forgot. So we'll figure something out. But yeah. But yeah, five forty five or eight forty five Eastern on Thursdays is when we have it slotted in for if we change it, we let the Discord know and then subscribe to the YouTube. You can always see if you if you turn on subscriptions, want to be notified. You can see when we do get notified or when we do go live and what our show plan is. And then last thing, Shippenation.com shows on the far left.

You can see right here when there are when we're doing them. All right, let's keep it rolling. Three fights left. I wanted to butt in real quick. I looked up the Wint first round finish and it's for the fight in general, not just Wint, but plus three fifty, which is the lowest I've seen, but still higher than I think it should be. Yeah, that makes sense. Odds, Dyer, Barbosa and Wint all miss the optimal. All of them. Man, it's hard to set odds on that.

I'd say at least twenty percent, though. I'm not sure. I'd like to hear Sheets answer that. I would say like fifty fifty. Wow. I mean, ninety seven, ninety eight, ninety nine. Just betting on not the fully upper tier getting there in a thirteen fight. I think it's fifty fifty. Oh, yeah. For some reason, I thought Judy's was in there as well. Yeah. More likely with just the three. Yeah. Alright, three fights left. Rene Derrida, minus-four-hundred. Taking on Roman Deleuze, plus-three-sixteen. Minus-one-twenty for this fight to finish.

Deleuze, plus-one-fifty inside the distance. Or, Derrida, plus-one-fifty inside the distance. Deleuze, plus-four-hundred. I... Dilize is such a boring fighter in the sense of DFS and how he never pushes the pace. So that limits my interest at $7,000, but to Ritter at $9,200, just a style alone, wanting to wrestle and grapple, be able to be on top reversals, good knees in the clinch. Like I'm going to play some at $9,200 just because of his style.

I don't know if Dilize just being so boring yet still dangerous in with his power, with his grappling, if it just makes this fight super, super boring. But yeah, I'm going to take a chance under Ritter, just the sheer nature of his wrestling style. I don't love to lead. Say, what do you think of this one? Yeah, same. I think Deleuze is live for a knockout. He is the better striker, just much more powerful.

He's probably the most powerful striker that De Ritter has had to face, at least in the UFC. So I think the knockout is definitely live, really in any round, but especially early. And if it's early at $7,000, you're going to need them. But yeah, my preferred play is, is already are in this one. I think his grappling edge is just It's really enough to justify the minus four hundred dollar line. He is so much better than Deleuze.

Once the fight hits the ground, I just don't think Deleuze has any chance. I think it's either a submission or De Ritter does what he wants in top control. But yeah, give give me De Ritter is my preferred play in this one. It's one where I'd be playing both sides, the more lineups I make. But with my hand builds out, much more likely to start a lineup with De Ritter than see what I can do with it.

And I'm really not trying to even click on Delise in a hand-built single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ type of lineup. I'd rather go down to Emmer's if I don't have Larion in my lineup at least. But I think both sides are playable, especially the more lineups you make. DeRitter is just going to have to either dominate on the ground or get that first round finish at $9,200 for him to score enough points and beat out all these other high scoring guys.

Yeah, I don't like this fight too much. I'll play some Derrida. The lead Zay just makes the fight so boring. Hopefully Derrida dominates. I'll probably be around the field, but not a fight that I want to get a bunch of exposure to. This fight, though, very good one. Very solid in the mid-tier. We're back to the heavyweights. Minus one forty two Vitor Petrino plus one twenty two. Sergei Spivak minus one sixty for this fight to finish.

Petrino plus one forty inside the distance. Spivak plus two sixty five. I'm guessing you prefer Gazeve Kennedy fight in the mid tier more than this one. As you have that five star in this four star. Is that safe to say? And then break this one down. Yeah, yeah. As a whole, I would say that that's the case because I think that Petrino's really ceiling is a first-round knockout, and Gazeev has that same potential, but he also has wrestling potential as well.

So I just think that's the better fight to target. But this is more of a binary fight where Petrino If it's on the feet, I really like Petrino to win and probably get a knockout at some point. But as a $7,700 underdog, Spivak has one hundred and ten plus one hundred and twenty point upside. He could just completely dominate the fight on the ground. My issue with him is just we haven't really seen that from him. He's been more willing to stand.

He hasn't landed multiple takedowns like he in his last fight. One, two, three, four, five fights. He only has five takedowns. I mean, that's just not going to cut it if you're going to be going for one or two takedowns against a guy like Petrino, who I really don't think Spivak has a chance to beat on the feet. I just think it's a good fight to target because first round knockout equity on the Petrino side or...

Almost any win from the Spivak side is fine. I just think that Petrino is going to get the knockout at some point. $8,500. I'm fine with it being the first or the second round. I don't think we can handle any real Spivak round winning and then Petrino knockout. It's probably too late by that point. But Petrino is just one of those scary looking strikers that I just wouldn't want to be in front of.

And I don't think Spivak will want to be in front of either. So give me Petrino. Get the knockout. I'm on the Spivak side for my preferred play. As you can see, Monday it was minus one seventy five Petrino. Now it's only minus one forty two. Eight hundred dollar price difference. Spivak taking money throughout the week. If someone does wrestle, I think it is on the Spivak side. His jab was actually good last fight. Relatively surprising.

I just prefer the savings with Spivak and what it gets me. But I think Petrino is fine. I do prefer Kennedy Kazeev if having to choose Spivak. One fight between those two as well.

Right let's get to the final fight again appreciate everyone hanging out like button subscribe button helps us out a ton and again if you do want to go over to the nation just hop over real quick shipitnation.com you can see on the top our banner all access special usually ninety nine dollars and forty nine dollars now SaberSim Discord access to all the sports above bottom left join the nation can take you down and you can see five days for nineteen dollars with SaberSim and the Discord If you want to give us a try, single sport options as well, MMA.

Monthly, twenty nine dollars. Annual comes out to seventeen dollars a month. Just a little more to add SaberSim. If you do so, choose. All right. Again, all our content projections, ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, slate plan, everything, Slate Station. Excuse me. Everything filled out for Saber. Uh, we filled out on Friday and let, let me also show the stone to MMA, the stone too.

So you can see right here, this is how you, if you plug in like Hernandez, Mason Jones, or you want to star fighters, whatever it is, you can see for DraftKings and FanDuel. You can optimize it. And when projections are ownership and are in here, you can then see that what the, um, how many fantasy points the line is projected for, what the percent ownership is for it, how to star the lineups right here.

And then you're able to eventually go to your saved lineups, download the CSV and upload it over to DraftKings. It's a fan or not to FanDuel. Yeah, we don't have the builder for FanDuel, but for DraftKings and make sure not that I just break up. Oh, sweet. You said sweet. I love it. Yeah, that's awesome. Yeah, and if you don't want to use opposing fighters, like if you're playing GPPsGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗, I would unclick this button so then you can stack it that way.

But awesome stuff over here from the team. Let's go to MMA.

Back to the stone and we have the main event I'm very excited for this one definitely whatever we're doing big Marley we cannot miss this fight it's anthony fluffy hernandez minus one eighty five greg rodriguez plus one sixty one minus three twenty five for this fight to finish fluffy plus one ten inside the distance rodriguez plus one seventy five fluffy's just one of the DFS goats wasn't good for him last fight he didn't shoot takedowns against strickland I don't know what you're doing You better shoot him in this one.

Otherwise, I think it's going to be the same result. Do you think he gets back on track? I'm picking Rodriguez to win. But I put three and three on this one because I just can't count out Hernandez. And Hernandez scored one hundred and ninety two points in one single fight. There's no other person on this card that can do that. Rodriguez can't do that. Rodriguez really can't even score more than like one hundred and twenty seven or so.

And that would just include a first minute knockout. But. If Hernandez can't constantly land takedowns and just wear out Rodriguez, I think he's going to get knocked out on the feet. I think it's not really a binary fight. I think Hernandez can hang for a little while or even not get knocked out early. And then the longer it goes, the more Rodriguez is going to start to fade and the more Hernandez will start to pick it up.

But I just think he is going to be in trouble in a striking match. And Rodriguez is a really good grappler. He's dangerous with submissions. He's a good wrestler himself. He's definitely stronger than Hernandez. So if he can shuck off the first couple takedowns, Hernandez might turn into the same guy he was in that Strickland fight and just accept a striking match. And I don't think that'll go well for him. I like Rodriguez to get a first round knockout, possibly a second round knockout.

And if he doesn't get it in the first or the second, I think the chances of him winning just start to go down and down. And Hernandez is going to start to dominate the fight, land takedowns easier, do what he wants in top control, probably submit Rodriguez at some point. So I just think it's a fight we have to target. A first or second round knockout from Rodriguez is on the optimal lineup. And I think any win from Hernandez is likely on the optimal lineup.

This guy has scored. A hundred and forty one, a hundred and ninety two, a hundred and fifteen, a hundred and twenty, a hundred and seventeen, a hundred and thirty four. Like that's top top status in DFS right there. So the more lineups I make, the more I'm going to start making Hernandez lineups. But since I'm picking Rodriguez to win, the first lineup I make, I'm going to have Rodriguez in. I'm going to start that lineup.

We'll see where it goes with Wint, but I'm sure Rodriguez is the next name I'm clicking on, and then we'll see where it goes from there. But this is a fight I'm going to make sure is in every single hand-built lineup that I create. I think we would need almost like a no contest or... Maybe a second-round Hernandez submission possibly doesn't get you there as long as he's not laying in freaking five, six takedowns before that.

I just think it's rare for this fight not to be on the optimal. So I'll be all over this one. It's my favorite fight to target. I can't wait to watch it. I hope that we have a sweat going into it. But, yeah, give me Rodriguez. I will say that I don't think I've ever – picked against Rodriguez though.

So there is some bias there, but I just think he is the real full package aside from a questionable chin, which I'm not too worried about here and questionable cardio, which in five rounds I am worried about. Yeah, I'm picking Fluffy because I've never picked or I picked Rodolfo. And I think ever since then, I have. It's his pace, everything he puts on. I'm worried, though, that my confidence is not high. There's no doubt about that.

And I plan to be pretty even in terms of DFS. If Gregory wins, it's hard for him not to be optimal. At $7,600 and it opens a lot up I think this and the mcveigh schultz fight price right next to each other is definitely the best fights to target on this card but yeah do know it's going to be pretty chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ when you plug this fight in when you then go mcveigh schultz fight and then you play wins or Gazeve Kennedy.

You got to get different in some other spots. That's why we do have projections. And ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, always posted. It's very important in this sport. We've talked about that in the More Education MMA.

Big Marley and I talked for over an hour and a half uh yeah ownership matters everything on the stone you can see all the write-ups will be up at the Slate Station I already showed out the stone to point out to start virtually hand building some teams again projections ownership everything you need for DFS definitely do get in the Discord if you do join big Marley any final thoughts for you Nah, man, I hope it's a good, successful card.

I can't wait to sweat it in Vegas with you. If you guys are going to be out there, hit us up. Hopefully we'll be at Circus Swim. What's it called? Stadium Swim. Stadium, yeah, I think you're right. Yeah, so that'll be sick to watch some fights out there. But, yeah, I can't wait, man. Good luck to you, Title. Good luck to everybody listening, except that last guy who commented. Let's ship it. Good luck, everybody out there. For my man, Big Marley, I'm Title Town.

Have a great weekend. Be safe. Peace.