UFC DFS Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

I think every single fight is fadable this week. That's kind of my broad slateSlateIn MMA DFS, a slate usually covers the eligible bouts from one fight card. It can include preliminary bouts as well as the main card, so the headline fights are not your only possible source of fighters.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. Leave money. Dogs should come through. No fight stack. No must fight that you have, which is good for me. I think ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership will be relatively spread out and a strong mid-tier, I should mention as well. Main event, minus one AD to finish. Eighty-three, $7,900, minus three twenty-five to finish. $8,200, $8,000, minus one seventy to finish. Then plus one oh five for the fourth mid-tier fight.

But I do think the mid-tier is going to be a big part of what people do this week. And yeah, I mean, I'll be jamming the mid-tier pretty heavy myself. Any broad slate for you before we go bottom to top? No, mid-tier is going to be super important. That seven, $8,000 to... Eight point $5,000 range. I think that's going to you got to get those right right calls in those fights. All three are going to be tough to call right.

But if you're putting in MME lineups, then that's just what you got to bank to knock out the optimal. Yeah, we're on the same page there for sure. Let me just head over to ShipItNation.com real quick. As you can see, the ShipItNation prizes was in the $46,000. And shout out to our man Sharks. I know we have a graphic. Yeah, let me pull that up.

Sharks sometimes in here does some good work for us in the NHL chat, helps the people out. But man, just crushes himself in multiple sports and had a big NFL win and gave back to the community. $4,000 eight hundred dollars.

Fifty three dollars just so generous and nice of sharks you're probably watching the show saying how do I get a little part of that or have a chance Any NFL monthly or greater package gets you in, but obviously you guys are watching the MMA show. You want some MMA content. Bottom left, join the nation.

Any monthly package or annual package, so in the core hundred, in the starter, or the ultimate, any of these does get you eligible for the Ship It Games, and that link is posted every Tuesday in the NFL Discord. It is pinned in the NFL chat. Four hundred ninety-nine people are able to join the And then the top three get a winner to the golden shipping contest. And then that is when we play later on in the year.

You narrow down fifty to I believe it's twelve. And then you play the top twelve outright in the first week of the playoffs to get an exponential payout. I believe $12,000 for first place right now.

Uh and it goes down a little bit after that but an awesome awesome gesture for our man sharks we put up a lot of money ourselves sabersome helped with some cash and prizes again any monthly or greater membership uh we'd love to have you Discord included SaberSim included we also do have single sport packages though if you're just looking for MMA again every single week pretty much twenty nine dollars for the month only twenty more dollars um get you SaberSim as well so We'd love to have you.

Any package you join, I highly recommend getting in the Discord. As always, forgot to mention, but we do have the five days for nineteen dollars. If you have not given us a try and you want to try us out, a great time to do so with college football, NHL, MMA, PGA, NASCAR, MMA, of course, and NBA will be coming up next Tuesday, which is very crazy. To think. Let's see. Watching you guys at Harrah's in Cherokee. Got lucky vacations paid for.

Hoping to pay for my DK buy-ins with MMA this week. That's awesome stuff, Brian. Love to see it. Enjoy yourself for sure. And yeah, let's... Let's try and help Brian come up with a strategy to pay for his weekend. Last week it went well to an extent. I'm talking a little bit big Marley pre-show. But the stand of wanting to play at least one of those big dogs, two of the three came through.

The first two, Ribeiro and Franco or whoever it was, Alan Fry, I forget which one. Frye, I think it was, came through and had scores that you wanted, but I was just too heavy on the mid-tier, or not the mid-tier, the main event.

And you actually, even though Allen scored fine, there were so many big scores with Prado and those two were, I mean, Leon Shabazzian, Leon Shitstain, Nico Price puts up a big one, like huge, huge scores where you actually didn't need the main event, a unique lineup for a solo $100,000. So shout out to whoever that was. I think he used, it was a $46,000 lineup. Isn't that crazy? Yeah, I've never done that either.

But if there was a card like he was really, really high on all three of those underdogs and those ones we talked about, it was the perfect card of like if they win, they have as much upside as anyone on the slateSlateIn MMA DFS, a slate usually covers the eligible bouts from one fight card. It can include preliminary bouts as well as the main card, so the headline fights are not your only possible source of fighters.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. When you win, how much do you win? Not something that I would have done. I believe if you look at like the contest Sims or you look at post Sims, I don't think that lineup probably graded out really well, but.

I can guarantee you he does not give one fuck with the post-contest Sims and says, take my hundred thousand and try and go buy something with it. So congrats to that guy. Crazy lineup for sure. Not a week this week where I would be leaving $4,000 on the table, but Let's see if we can make a case to leave four hundred, five hundred or something with some of these underdogs. And we will kick it off with we're going bottom to top from the stone.

This is not going to be the actual bout order. I believe Perez Nelson is like number three. Again, it doesn't matter when it when it's all said and done in terms of which fights we talk about first and last, as long as it's three rounds or five rounds and the main events, the only five round fight. So. We're going based on the stone, and we are going with the first fight of the night. Christian Perez, minus-three-forty. Taking at Tyler Nelson, plus-two-seventy-six.

Minus-six hundred for this fight to finish. Tied for the second most on the card. Perez, minus-two-twenty-five inside the distance. Nelson, plus-three-twenty-five. Perez in round one plus one sixty five. I mean, I think we just opened it up with an absolute banger. It's a banger because of Christian Perez. He looks like an all gas, no brakes kind of guy. Tyler Nelson, in my opinion, relatively boring. But this fight screams very similar to two of his last three fights against Terrence McKinney and Steve Garcia.

Guys that are going to come forward, push a pace, make him fight. If Nelson wins, I think he probably knocks out Perez or Perez just gases. He uses his veteran savviness, can survive early and win late. Whatever the case is, if he wins at $7,000, I think he scores and Perez, I think will be relatively chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk. So for those reasons in game theory, I'm definitely going to play some Nelson at $7,000.

Gun to my head and how I think this fight goes. I think Perez splits him, puts it on him and knocks him out in the first round. And you also would want that at $9,200. So this is a fight I would love to be overweight on both sides to start it off. Perez is the pick. Nelson's the game theory play for me. But yeah, it's it's pretty tough to go too heavy on Nelson, in my opinion, just like eye test wise.

What do you think? Yeah, I actually, like, ten minutes before the show started, I moved it from four stars on Perez to five stars on Perez with one on Nelson. I thought I was going to have maybe a little bit of Nelson thinking he's live for either a knockout or maybe he can gas out Perez, finish him late. He is the more experienced guy. But I just don't think Nelson's in it anymore. He looks so bad.

And like the short time he was in there against, um, what's his nuts that just kills everybody super early. Um, God, I can't think of names right now, but, um, You're saying Steve Garst, McKinney, Terrence, twenty four second. Yeah. Yeah. He looks so horrible just going in there. Like, what was he expecting in that fight? Like, you think it was going to be easy early? Like, I don't know what he was expecting. I think this is similar where Perez is going to be hot earlier.

He's going to be aggressive. He's going to be dangerous on the feet. I like him to be the better striker. Either guy could mix in takedowns, but I think Nelson should be mixing in takedowns if he wants to slow down Perez. I just changed it to a five star on Perez because I think Nelson probably gives up if things aren't going his way. And I think things aren't going to be going his way early.

I like Perez to get a probably a first round knockoutRound One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish could even be a submission if it hits the ground. But Perez is definitely the one that I'm more impressed by the two. So I changed it to Perez or pass for me. So if I tell you right now Nelson wins, which let me get out my odds converter. You're always better than this with me. But right now he has plus two seventy six plus two seventy six.

Twenty six point six percent chance to win. Hey, we've seen a couple of these come through lately. The Buccaneers over the Cowboys last week. Alan Fry, Branson Ribeiro. Like what? What do you think Nelson scoring the range of outcomes? Is there ranges where he scores like seventy five? Can the fight really be that bad? Yeah, oh, I think he could win with like sixties.

It would probably be him getting his ass kicked early and then just coming back and winning on points or something in the late second and then third round. But yeah, Perez just doesn't, not Perez, Nelson just doesn't have the style to really score well minute to minute. So I think he would need Perez to gas out and just get a lot of points from a finishing bonus at one time.

Yeah, I just feel like because of Perez's style, if he does gas out, I just would trust any MMA fighter to put it on him, like eventually at the finish or Perez quit. Maybe that's not the case. I still want a good amount of Nelson. I mean, he's plus-two-seventy-six money line. He's plus-three-twenty-five inside the distance. It shows most of his win equity is by finish, which you would take at $7,000 and leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage off of Perez.

So I have a little more interest in Nelson than you, but we both are on Perez to get the finish. All right, let's get to the first of four mid-tier fights. And again, this is the only mid-tier fight not expected to finish. And I do think it's going to be relatively low owned. Cody Trevonick minus one thirty one. So young you plus one twelve plus one oh five for this fight to finish. We got Cody plus one eighty five inside the distance.

You plus four hundred inside the distance. Cody round one plus four fifty. I'm looking at this as a clash of styles. Cody, the striker, you the wrestler. Again, I don't think you use a bad striker by any means, but I do think it pretty heavily favors Cody, which will force you to wrestle. And I see one guy that's eight hundred cheaper that wants to wrestle on a card where I think dogs are live, but I don't love, love dogs. And yeah, the mid tier is strong.

$8,500 ninety five might not be enough. I would take it. But for all those reasons at point. It points me to you being my preferred play, but Cody is going to be really low on. I shouldn't say really low on, maybe like seventeen percent relative to the range. He's going to be low on and he's plus one eighty five inside the distance, which isn't bad. So we'll have some Cody prefer you.

This is a pivot fight for me, though, and chalk your lineups. Can you make a case for it? Yeah, I think you're playing Cody for his finishing ability. He is the better striker. He's live for a knockout. Or he could just win the fight with a striking-based style, but that wouldn't score as well.

I also think he's live for a submission, but it is you that should be the one going out there looking to wrestle, looking to wrestle early and often, and that would be his path to victory. And if he is going to win, I would expect you to score around ten X at least, if not ninety-plus points. So... I would rather have you of the two just because I trust him to go out there and try to wrestle in this matchup.

But I do think that Cody's going to go overlooked. He could finish you in any round. So I think you're playing him for his ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership and his finishing upsideFinish UpsideFinish upside is a fighter's potential to deliver a high DFS score by winning through knockout, technical knockout or submission rather than a judges' decision. It reflects the likelihood of that finish, its timing and the resulting fantasy points.Compare fighter-specific inside-the-distance odds, which describe that fighter winning before a decision, with the fight's finish odds. The latter can be satisfied by either opponent winning.Read the full definition of Finish Upside. And then you're playing you for his wrestling. And because there's not a whole lot of dogs to like on this card. All right, let's keep it rolling. Next fight on the card, Melissa Crodin taking on Chelsea Chandler. Crodin, minus-three-twenty-five. Chandler, plus-two-sixty-five. This fight's plus-one-hundred to finish. Crodin, plus-one-seventy-five inside the distance. Chandler, plus-four-hundred.

What do you think of this one? Man, I'm not really loving this one. I do think that Crodin is the better striker. She's going to be the pressure fighter. I also think she is... More dangerous, more durable, has better cardio. So the longer she can get this fight going, I think the more she can pick it up and maybe even score well in like a late finish.

But early, I think Chandler's just going to be The bigger fighter, I think she will be looking to wrestle early. I think Chandler's going to be live for a first round submissionRound One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish. I think Chandler's live to win the first, second round with wrestling and maybe score okay as a cheap underdog. So I just don't really have that much of a preference in this one.

I was picking Croton to get the win, but the $8,900 salary is kind of what's scaring me away from her. I would rather go to other big favorites instead of her. So I put the four stars on the Chandler side of this one, just because if I am having to pay down, super low. I think she is live to win this fight on the ground.

And if she were to get a first round submission at $7,300, she'll be she'll be looking really pretty at the third fight on the card, maybe. Dang, I did not plan on playing much Chandler. I definitely was on the Croton side. I'm a little worried. I mean, live movement, as you guys know, is really big for me. Croton opened minus two twenty a little later. A day later was down to minus two hundred. And ever since then, it's just taken money.

Minus two eighty five. As you can see, she was on Tuesday. Now, as of Thursday, she's minus three twenty five. Croton's taken a good bit. Of cash. And then you look at her UFC win. She scored a hundred twenty three in her UFC debut in a third round finish and ninety one in a decision win. So I think she has the upside even in a decision. I think she's the better striker. I think she does better in the clinch.

I think if she does get on top on the mat, I think she can do a lot of damage. I think she has outs at $8,900 and is going to be low on. So I'm on the line movement side. I'm on Croton. But you might have talked me into a little Chandler. Like when she wins, I guess she probably will score okay. But, man, the money keeps going against her. Like how does she win?

Do you think she gets on top and uses her heavy frame? Yeah, yeah. I would say she wins on the ground, yeah, whether it be two rounds or a submission. But, yeah, I'm not really in love with her either. So I think you convinced me to change it from four stars on her to three and three on this one. Yeah, I'm on the Croton side more so. I can't hate a Chandler dog play at $7,300, but I do prefer others myself.

Like I prefer you or excuse me. I prefer Nelson. You prefer Chandler, right? Uh, yeah, we're Nelson. Definitely. Yeah. Okay. All right. Let's get to a mid tier fight. The closest price fight on the card. And I'm very interesting one. As you can see the cheaper fighter and Steven Coslow. Now the favorite at minus one, sixty two. Taking on Chad and Heliger plus one, thirty eight. Minus one, ninety for this fight to finish. Coslow plus one, twenty inside the distance. And Heliger plus two, sixty five.

Coslow round one plus three, fifty. Uh, I mean, man, this fight is so good when it comes to DFS. Just a couple of things. I'll let you break it down. But line movement wise was minus one seventy. Let's say this open minus one fifty to finish was minus one seventy on Tuesday. Now minus one ninety, which you love to see. Kazo open minus one ten. Thirty minutes later, roughly, it was plus-one-ten. Then it was minus-one-ten a day later. Then it was plus-a-hundred.

The line's gone back and forth. But then this week, the past couple days, minus-one-fifteen. It was on Monday. Now minus-one-sixty-two, Kozlo. So he's taking a lot of money. Is two hundred cheaper, plus one twenty inside the distance. And when you break it down, it only gets better. Coslow grappler plus one fifty by submission and Eliger striker plus four fifty by KO. It's everything that you want. Closely lined doesn't break the bank. Striker versus grappler under keeps taking money. I mean, take it away.

How do you not play this fight? Man, just because of the unknowns, I was definitely thinking about having it. As a five star and I might play it as a five star. I haven't built too many lineups yet. Um, but yeah, What's his nuts? Cosmo hasn't fought in four years and Heliger hasn't fought in two years. So I just have no idea what these guys are going to look like, especially when they come back from four years.

That's like they look like a different person typically. And we've only seen Cosmo one time. I feel like he gassed out in that fight with his grappling heavy style. He got a bunch of takedowns against a good fighter, but he also got reversed a ton of times as well. I think he's alive to win this fight on the ground, whether it be minutes, and he can still score well. I also think he could get a first-round submissionRound One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish.

Angelica does have pretty poor takedown defense, so I expect it to be rough for Angelica early. But I just don't know how long that can last for Coslow, and I do like Angelica to be the better striker of the two. I mean, he's got these little T-Rex arms, but he's fast and he can crack. I think he could knock out Kozlo in any round here. So the more the line goes to Kozlo, the heavier his ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership will get, the more Angelica's will sink.

So I might like Angelica more for that reason. But just style for style, Kozlo does make a lot more sense on DraftKings because if he wins, it's going to come on the ground and it probably is going to score well no matter what. Do you think most of Chad's wins probably score well? Do you think most of the time he just dominates on the feed and gets them out of there? No, I don't know about Chad.

I think his would be like he gets beat early in the fight, and then he finishes them late, and maybe it's too late at that point. I don't know. Gotcha. Yeah. Man, I'm just trying to – like, Koslow's for sure just a really good play at $1,000. Like, he's taking all the money. Plus-one-twenty inside the distance, the favorite. But he very well could be, like, thirty-eight percent owned. And Chad could be, like, twenty-one percent.

And then it's like, man, the game theory-wise, Chad opened plus-three-hundred inside the distance, now plus-two-sixty-five. Under-one-and-a-half, plus-one-fifty-three now. Yeah, there is pass, I guess, for sure, like a Chad third-round knockout if this fight does go to decision. But just because of, yeah, like the clash of styles, the uncertainty on Coslow, I'm going to tell myself most Chad wins will score well, and I think he's going to be enough leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage game theory-wise where – Similar to the first fight. I prefer Perez. I prefer Kozlo.

In chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk or lineups, when I have to get different, though, Chad is a way that I'm going to get different, and I feel pretty good about it because I think he does have a good amount of upside as the better striker. All right, let's keep it rolling. Next fight on the card. Again, appreciate everyone hanging out. Like button and subscribe button helps us out a ton. Hope everyone out there is having a great week.

My least favorite fight on the card, Katelyn Sermonara. Katelyn Chukagian, Sermonara. That's what it is. Katelyn Sermonara, minus-two-seventy-four. Mackenzie Stiller, plus-two-twenty-seven, plus-two-thirty-five for this fight to finish. The underdog in Stiller, plus-three-forty inside the distance. Sermonara, plus-five-fifty. I mean, a plus-five-fifty inside the distance for a nine-K on this card makes it the easiest X out, in my opinion. It only gets easier when you look at Stiller.

Whose nickname is mac judo she wants to get the fight to the mat she's a grappler um but I will say like plus three forty inside the distance I always look at bet online most other books plus four hundred plus four seventy five that number is in a tier of its own so I don't think That line's probably correct. I think it's probably more like plus four hundred. It's dogger pass for me for sure, though.

The dog at $7,200 wants it on the mat is more likely to finish. I mean, she saves eighteen hundred stiller pass, but I really don't like stiller much like Chukagian Sermonara, the UFC vetting her. She should style on like keep it on the feet, out pointer at range, win a unanimous, easy decision in this fight completely bust. That's my prediction. But we need some dogs. So I'll have some stiller. What about you?

Yeah, I'm definitely not going to play Chukagian at $9,000. There's just no way I can get to her. Even if I'm playing like fifty plus lineups, I'm not going to get to her. But yes, I do like her to win the fight just by keeping it on the feet, being the better striker, winning that range. She's getting a newcomer first time ever in the UFC. And Chukagian's had seventeen UFC fights and she's really fought the best of the best.

So Stiller does need to get the fight to the ground. If she wins, she probably would score well because it's going to come on the ground, whether it be three rounds of control time or get a submission. Chukagian's coming back from having a baby. We haven't seen her in two years. She's ten years older. So I put the four stars on the Stiller side just because it's dog or pass for me.

But I didn't want to put five stars on the underdog because I'm not even picking her to win. I am picking Chukagian to win. This is just a fight. I'm not interested in playing. Yeah, I guess it's kind of a tough spot for you because, like, when people see five-star versus one, they're like – but, like, for me, it would be Stiller five-star, Cermonera one-star because I wouldn't have – I probably would have no Cermonera in, like, I just couldn't imagine. Like, what's the path?

She's optimal. She chin checks her, I guess, like a random knockout. Yeah, I guess. And even then, she might not make it. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, Bryant's on the same page, too. Give me the dog. In a women's fight, that's plus-two-thirty-five to finish. Totally agree. We'll keep it rolling to an absolute banger. Two five-star fights for Big Marley. This is one of them. I say an absolute banger, but I'm talking about an absolute banger for DFS.

I mean, this could be an absolute slop fest at heavyweight, but we got Joel Fagler. We're going to say Joel Fagler. I think it's Fogler. Thank you. Joel Fogler minus one thirty five. Taking on Javed Mohib plus one sixteen minus one or excuse me, minus three twenty five for this fight to finish. And this is where it's like I'm tripped out the exact same inside the distance prop at plus one forty. They have the exact same decision profit plus five hundred.

Exact same tko prop at plus four thirty five same sub prop at plus two seventy five same round one same round two I don't know if fight odds is glitching or if you're seeing the same thing but these dudes like the props are exactly identical on pretty much every method of victory and everything in this fight so beside the point you got to get a coin flip or it's not a coin flip anymore it was a coin flip fight and now uh Now Joel is the favorite at minus-one-thirty-five.

But whoever wins has a chance to score pretty good. They're most likely going to score well with under-one-and-a-half sitting at plus-one-oh-three. If this fight gets extended, it's really going to be gross. But as pivots from the main events, like the Angeliger fight, this fight, we're going to get to... Where's the last mid-tier? Oh, I guess you, which is fine too. But mainly Angelica and this fight right here. This is why I'm not making a rule to have a must in the main event.

I think either of these two winners can outscore the main event, and that'll be a little different. So I don't know who wins. I think it's a complete slop fest. I don't have much hope for either of these two for longevity in the UFC, but they're throwing two guys at each other. That have not lost, that are making their UFC debut, and I just hope someone gets a takedown and pounds the other one's face in. So what do you think?

Do you have any strong lean on any side? Not at all, no. The line is going to Fogler's side. I think he's more well-rounded. He's ten years younger. He should be the better striker. In this one, he could also get a submission on bottom. If he were to get a takedown of his own, I don't know how much Javad would have to offer off of his back. But Javad just looks like the bigger, stronger, more powerful guy. He's on better supplements.

Once he gets the fight to the ground, I think he has strong top control, and I think he's live for ground and pound or submission, or he could just rack up top control minutes as well in a boring fight, but he's the one I would expect to slow down where Fogler is just really, I think he's going to be faster, better cardio, better striker. Just don't get taken down and don't, don't get laid on, is really the game plan for Fogler.

And if he can avoid that, I like him. But I just think that Javad's more proven. I liked what I saw more from him. So I picked him to get the win. But this was on – I did this last Saturday, like a week before our last fights, or a week before they even start. So I freaking – I don't feel good about either side.

And the fact that the line is moving to Fogler's side, maybe people know more than I do, but that's also going to raise the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. So I think Javad and Heliger lineups together make a lot of sense at lower ownership on both sides.

Yeah, to be honest, I'm a big line-moving person for sure, but in the mid-tier and close-line fights, I feel like most of the time the small money-line move creates too large of an ownership move And then in the game theory wise, it almost makes the other one like more appealing. Like Croton from minus two twenty five to minus three twenty five over the week and all that.

That doesn't move her that much because she's $8,900 still competing with the great range where the inside, the distance and upside matters more. So I value it more, whereas already a good fight to target minus three twenty five to finish pretty much a coin flip. But now the four hundred dollar cheaper fighter is minus one thirty six.

It's like when it was plus one, ten, maybe they're plus or maybe Joel is thirty one percent and Javid is twenty eight percent. Now that's minus one thirty six plus one sixteen. Now it could be like thirty eight percent, twenty four percent. That gap became too wide, in my opinion, for a twenty cent move. So I think Javid is going to be my preferred play just because the fight's gross. I'm spending four hundred dollars more, but I'm getting a big ownership discount.

In chalkier lineups. Joel, I'll play when I'm already getting a little difference, leaving money on the table. I do think Coslow and Joel are a lot similar plays. Javid and Chad are similar plays. If you are playing Coslow and Joel, and then you're playing the main event, and then you're playing Perez, you're just going down the same path as a lot of people.

So by no means would I max one Coslow and Joel, but I do kind of like going Javid with Coslow or Joel with... And Heliger a little more just to balance the chalkiness a little bit. All right, we'll keep rolling. Next fight on the card, the biggest favorites, Nick Zolante at minus six fifty five. Julian LeBlanc plus four eighty five. This fight is minus six hundred to finish tied for the second most likely on the card.

Minus three fifteen inside the distance for Zolante, plus five hundred for LeBlanc. Jelante by sub, minus one-fifty. Jelante in round one, plus one-hundred. I mean, if Robert Valentine's taking you down and submitting you like nothing, like he did to Julian LeBlanc, I think Jelante's probably going to do the same and make it pretty easy. With that being said, he's $9,500 bucks. He could score a hundred-five, a hundred-ten points and not be optimal.

I also think there's enough upside, like a Mandel, Nalo, like a Christian Perez, any team, any gelante team I can go to one of them and just leave it in a vacuum as a way to get difference he also just might get one takedown submission in a minute and eight seconds and that's like the worst case you want at $9,500 so I'm a little worried at this price tag and I don't love dumpster diving for dogs I'll have some probably slightly underweight if I had to guess right now um But if I had a little overweight, too, I'd be fine with it.

$9,500 on this tag on this card is a decent size price tag, though. What do you think Jelante needs to be optimal and how much do you think you'll have? I mean, on this card, I'm not really sure. I think he could be optimal with one hundred, but I. I just don't know. There's also so many guys that could score well where he probably could need one hundred and ten or one hundred and fifteen.

So for me, it's just going to be Jelanti or pass LeBlanc. I mean, he might knock him out. I think he would be the better striker, like point fighting striker if we were to turn knockouts off and not let Jelanti wrestle. But Jelanti is probably going to go out there and dominate him on the ground. And I also think Jelanti is the more powerful striker of the two. He's more likely to get a quick knockout.

So for me, I'm just going to exhale LeBlanc, get Jelanti in lineups that I can afford him in. But I'm also fine in any lineup I can afford Jelanti in using a couple other guys on this card as well. For sure. I don't know why this reminded me of this, but what are your thoughts on the UFC cutting for Reed? Sixteen and oh and seven and oh in the UFC. Bosh her up. Well, I didn't even know that. Yeah, it's interesting.

Yesterday. Maybe I was requesting too much money or something, but... I think it could be. I think it's more so just like the UFC. Ricardo kind of talked about it in the chat. It's entertainment over the value of just winning nowadays. I think six of his seven UFC wins were by decision. He wasn't even in the most boring fights, but when you just start getting that label and all your fights just go to decision, you really have...

Still, we got fucking Caitlin Chukagian versus Mackenzie Stiller. We got fucking Coslo and Heliger. I just think there's so much trash on the UFC lineup where we want guys like Basherat. I mean, we can get rid of this entire freaking card. Everybody on this card pretty much can go except for a couple people. But Basherat has, like, you know, I mean, I don't know. I think he has championship potential. When you say it like that, then you're right.

At the end of the day, he can't get a ten and ten. Who knows if he's trying to negotiate more, but for what they have to pay, he always wins. I mean, he never gets a fight that people are talking about forever. So it probably has something to do with both of it. Boring.

In their eyes doesn't get finishes doesn't pay the bills with entertainment and then yeah good enough where you can't just pay them twenty five and twenty five or whatever it is so they're like yeah screw it we'll save money throwing together random fights like this so I agree I

Mean they gotta get some new people in office yeah uh I mean I don't know how much dana really cares about it all nowadays but yeah we'll see how much longer dane is even there to be honest yeah it's hunter and it's hunter and the guys that are that are calling all the shots now it's not even that's not even a secret sean o'malley's pretty much saying it um that his negotiations are with hunter and them so hey a lot of money still to be made as long as they put out thirteen plus fights every week that this uh that's good with me we'll keep it rolling to the next fight on the card the second of two heavyweight fights janata denise minus two thirty five

Tanner boser plus one ninety seven This fight is minus two hundred to finish. Denise minus one thirty five inside the distance. Bozer plus five hundred. Denise in round one plus one seventy five. Denise is taking some money. Plus two hundred. He opened in round one. Now plus one seventy five was minus one twenty inside the distance. Now minus one thirty five. The fight opened minus one seventy five. Now minus two hundred. Almost all that is on the Denise side, though.

I'm going to let you break it down first. I'm curious, like you have two stars on Bozer. I'm curious to hear your path on like how does he score more than eighty five in this fight? What is his path to the optimal? And then, yeah, Denise, two strikers. Denise is the former kickboxer. It feels pretty obvious he can knock him out at any time, but he will need a knockout in the first two rounds more than likely with the second round not even being guaranteed.

Yeah, I would say Bosa's path to victory, path to optimal for sure would be the knockout. Just because these are big boys, he could get a knockout of his own. I like him to be the higher volume striker of the two. So if he doesn't get knocked out himself, I do think he lands more volume than Denise in a three-round matchup if it were to go that far. And at $7,400, maybe that could be enough.

He's landed pretty decent volume in past fights. So I think he could get there in a three-round decision. But I'm picking Denise to knock him out. I just think Denise is the better overall striker. He's more dangerous. He's more durable. And he's just the better – technical kickboxer of the two. Bosa's kind of awkward, a little bit wild, and his aggressiveness could definitely make him pay just by fighting a guy like Denise.

I don't know who's even more likely to mix in takedowns in this one, but I'm picking Denise to get an early knockout. So I will be playing him, but if he doesn't get an early knockout, like if Denise wins a decision, you should have X'd him out with a hundred and fifty lines. He's not going to be there.

So I'm uh wary on how much denise I want to play but um I think that ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership will be a little bit low on them too for those reasons so I'm cool getting to denise and just hoping the knockout comes to fruition Totally agree with you. Denise is somewhere I'll probably be around the field because the props are good and all that. But the second this fight gets out of the second round, it's really hard for me to see Denise being optimal.

I think Bozer would be the more likely one to wrestle if anyone did. I'm not expecting anyone to, though. Bozer, probably higher volume. But Denise, a former kickboxer, a scary one. The biggest problem with him is when people try and take him down. He's not going to have to worry about that in this one. So I do think if he gets in flow state, it could be pretty fun to watch. And bad news for Bozer, but I think Bozer is a solid fighter.

Someone we don't really see often, but he's steady, I guess is the better word. But yeah, he might be staring up at the stars when it's all said and done. Oh, let's see. Last four wins at UFC came by KO. Low score. It was low eighties. He's live. Yeah. I mean, again, he has to knock out the former kickboxer plus five hundred inside the distance. Twenty percent chance for Bozer to get the knockout. Good stuff right there.

Let's get to an absolute banger, the second of two five-star fights. Mandel, Nalo, minus .-. Nate Landwehr, plus .-. Minus .- for this fight to finish. Nalo, minus .- inside the distance. Landwehr, plus .-. Nalo in round one, minus .-. Opened plus .-. I mean, I think it's pretty clear. Nalo's a great play. And $9,100 will be really chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk if Landwehr wins. He's got to score well. A lot of the field's dead with Nalo. Yeah, I mean, clear as day.

Nalo more likely wins, probably optimal loses. Oh, what happened to title? I don't even know if it's me or if it's him. There he is. There he is. Sorry, I literally hit the backspace. I was like, big brother's going to be tweaking. Yeah, you guys get the point. Nalo, when he wins, probably optimal. If he loses, land where optimal. A lot of the field dead with Nalo. Sorry about that. Take this one away.

Yeah, I think Nalo's probably the best play on the entire slateSlateIn MMA DFS, a slate usually covers the eligible bouts from one fight card. It can include preliminary bouts as well as the main card, so the headline fights are not your only possible source of fighters.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. Landwire's a madman. If he doesn't get knocked out early in this fight and he can tire Nalo out, the longer this fight goes, the more it's going to play into Landwire's favor. And he's probably going to be a crazy fight where he's going to put up a big score if he wins. And it could be a knockout in any round from Landwire.

But I think from him, it would be more likely in the second half of the fight where Nalo, I think all of Nalo's wins are in the first half of a scheduled fight. He's just a dangerous striker. He's going to be a lot faster. He's going to be the one pressuring Nalo. A lot more dangerous, a lot more striking tools. And I think he is going to knock Landwire out. Landwire has taken a lot of damage lately.

I think it's a first round knockoutRound One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish from Nalo. So I want to be super high on him. But if it's not a first round knockout from Nalo, I feel like Landwire is probably going to win the fight and be on the optimal himself. So it's probably an all in fight for me. I like it. That means, like I said, when I'm watching these fights, a little busy this Saturday, so we'll see how many I'm able to watch live.

But live betting, I think, is still one of the biggest edges out there in all sports, at least. I mean, I've been watching fights, I know Big Marley has, pretty much every single week for many of years.

So you start to notice trends and patterns and all of that when people are fading, when they start finding something, like Johnny Walker a couple weeks ago with the leg kicks, etc., etc., So yeah, Big Marley feels pretty confident outside of round one that Nalo can slow down, land where it takes over. So I will be looking at a live betting spot in this fight at what probably would be big plus money at the time. All right, four fights left.

Right next to the mid-tier fight, we have Charles Jourdain's brother, Luis Jourdain, taking on Timmy Kawamba. Minus-one-seventy-six is Jourdain. Plus-one-forty-nine is Kawamba. Minus-one-fifteen for this fight to finish. Jourdain plus-one-fifty inside the distance. Kawamba plus-one. Just looking at these odds on Tuesday, minus two fifteen was Jordan now minus one seventy nine. That is quite a bit of line movement on the Timmy Kawamba side. I mean, I can't blame the people. I think it's probably the sharp move.

I think this fight goes the distance and I think it is relatively competitive. If that's the case, I think this fight more than likely busts. For DFS, but I will mix in Jordan, even though lines going against them. I mean, he's plus one fifty inside the distance versus plus four fifteen in the ceilingCeilingCeiling is the high end of a player's or lineup's realistic range of fantasy scores. It describes a big performance that could happen when things go well, not the expected score or an absolute maximum.Describe what must happen for each player to have a huge game. Then check whether those conditions help or hurt the other players in your lineup.Read the full definition of Ceiling outcomes. I do think Jordan is live for a submission as he showed in contender series, but also a flashy striker that could pour it on him.

If he sees Kuamba hurt, he can punches and bunches and maybe get a knockdown or two. Don't love it, though, especially with the line movement going against them. Quamba feels more like a floorFloorIn daily fantasy sports (DFS), a player's floor is an estimate of the low end of their realistic fantasy scoring range. It describes downside, not a guaranteed minimum or their average projected score.Before trusting a floor estimate, check what could change the player's role today: a returning teammate, a minutes restriction, a lineup change or a different game script.Read the full definition of Floor play. Not sure. Eighty is going to be enough at $7,600. Kind of just an underweight fight for me for both. But Jordan is solid pivot in in a pretty loaded range. If the fight were to finish. I'm really curious to hear your take on this one.

I'm open ears. I'm actually not sure on this one. Well, really, I'm not sure. I don't know if I even want to play this one. I put it as a three-star mainly because of that minus-one-fifteen inside the distance. If there's a finish in this fight at these salaries, we're probably going to want it. But... I'm more impressed with Jordan. I thought he did look a lot like his brother. He's a flashy striker. I think he's more dangerous of the two.

I think he's the better, um, submission guy of the two. If it were to hit the ground, Quamba is a fine point fighter. He's got a little bit of power as well, but, I just think we're going to need a finish from either side of this fight to score well.

So that's why I put the three star, but I think I'm going to change it to a two star because when I'm hand building, I'm really going to not try to click on either one of these guys. There's other fights I would rather go to. So, It's definitely a two star for hand building.

But if I were making one hundred and fifty and just kind of putting in projectionsProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections, letting it do its thing, then I would be fine if I ended up with a decent amount of either one of them. And I would be OK with an MME three star. But I'm changing it right now because I'm more of a hand builder. Yeah, that makes sense. Let me refresh. I put in the Perez and Nelson FanDuel prices as well. I just now put it in, but yeah.

Okay. Yeah, I knew it wouldn't refresh right there. I just put this in.

The thing with why Jordan has to be low on, though, again, a lot – Javid and Eliger like those mid-tier fights for cheaper will all be higher owned and then if you just go a little higher price than Jordan you have Tyler Dawkus I think will be higher owned you have uh Janata Denise $8,800 that'll be higher owned so he just fits right in that range that I think has to be kind of forgotten um my preferred play I still don't love it what do you think about Timmy Kawamba most of his wins score like seventy in a decision and just not enough at $7,600 See, I would prefer Jordan just because I think he's more likely to get the finish because he's more flashy.

He has more ways for the angles to come from. It could be a kick or a punch with him. Or even a submission. So I would just rather be clicking on Jordan. I really don't care for Kawamba too much. I think you're just kind of playing against, I guess, the experience from Jordan and on the experience from Kawamba. But at $7,400, even if he wins a decision. Seventy six. $7,600. That's even worse.

Even if he even if he wins the decision, I don't I don't know that he's going to ten X that price tag. So if I'm hand building twenty lineups, I doubt I get any Kuwamba. Yeah, if you didn't like him at $7,400, you're not going to like him at $7,600. All right. Three fights left. I'm excited for this one. Real life. Pretty excited for DFS. Tyler Dawkins minus two hundred.

Mark Andre Barrio plus one sixty nine minus two fifteen for this fight to finish. Dawkins minus one twenty inside the distance. Barrio, plus-three-fifty-five. I'm a big Tyler Dawkus guy. The dude will go out there and fight for your dollar. He's well-rounded, known to be a grappler, and is better on the map. But he can strike, too. Knocked out Michelle Pereira. And $8,700 is just a – he's expected to finish at minus-one-twenty.

Might get some takedowns, could get a finish in any single round, and you can leave money with him relatively easy. And with all that being said, I don't think he comes in too highly owned in terms of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership either. So I'm on the darkest side. I think he wins this fight. Berrio, oh, man. I mean, I can't not play him because he has good volume.

I mean, he just impressed me against Michael Olejacek, showing that he still does have some durability, some grit, some striking and pretty high volume in him. I'm just so confident, I guess, in Dawkus, probably more confident than I should at minus two hundred where I'm going to have I'm going to limit my burial exposure. But Dawkus can be a little chinny, so maybe he could knock him out, find the chin.

Dawkus for me, though, and I plan to be overweight on him at $8,700. What's your pick? How do you see it going? What are you doing for DFS? Yeah, Pick is Dawkus. I think he's the more dangerous fighter, whether it be more knockout power or just a much better grappler of the two. I think he's got a big edge on the ground in this fight. I think his ground game is what deserves him to be a big favorite.

If it were to be a striking match, I think it's closer to a pick them fight where burial is a pretty good volume striker. I like him more than Quamba for a hundred dollars less. Cause I think bigger guys, he's got a better chance at the knockout. I also think he's going to be higher volume on the feet than Quamba. If it were to be a three round striking match.

But yeah, it could be, a sixty second loss from Barry, whether it be on the feet or the ground. I just think this is way better, way more dangerous. But I would just worry about it staying on the feet too long. I think that's what puts Barry all in play to win just in general. But if he wins at $7,500, I think he's a decent play. So I'm OK with both sides of this one.

This is closer to a four star than it is a two star where I change that last one to a two star. I think this is a better version of that fight. Totally agree. But I do think ownership, not that it's going to be too different. I do think though, Barry O'Tire only Kwon, but Dawkus is higher on than Jordan when it is all said and done. So I think the field will see it similar. All right, two fights left. Again, I appreciate everyone hanging out.

We'd love to have you at Shippenation.com. Again, in the beginning, I showed it off. Shippenation.com. Join the nation. You can find all of our different packages. Every single one includes the Discord. Many of them include SaberSim as well. Definitely do get in the Discord if you do join.

And the five days for nineteen dollars with Discord with SaberSim now is a great time to give it a try you get NFL tonight on Thursday you get college football tonight tomorrow Saturday NBA starting next Tuesday so you'd miss out on the five day there but you get MLB playoffs uh you get MMA you get NASCAR of course you get NFL Monday nights Sunday night football main slateSlateIn MMA DFS, a slate usually covers the eligible bouts from one fight card. It can include preliminary bouts as well as the main card, so the headline fights are not your only possible source of fighters.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate all that good stuff so I think it's a good day to take advantage of the five days for nineteen dollar trial What's up, YSN?

Great to see you. I hope you're doing well. Always good to see you in chat. Co-main events. Not my favorite for DFS. Not my favorite for real life, but two solid girls going at it. Erin Blanchfield, minus three-twenty. Jasmine Jazz-DeVitius, plus two-sixty-five. Minus three-thirty-five for this fight to go the distance, which is the greatest on the card. Let me just double-check. Yep, the most likely to go the distance on the card. Erin, plus two-sixty-five inside the distance. Jasmine, plus...

Twelve hundred I mean I never fully fade aaron blanchfield almost because she has a hundred twenty plus upside if she really puts on the wrestling shoes not sure this is the matchup she does it with because jasmine is also known as a wrestler maybe aaron can just strike for fifteen minutes I don't expect that to happen though I guess my question to you is can jasmine get up if aaron does take her down because I do think we need her to chain takedowns at $9,300.

We'll be really low on when I am playing Steven Coslow and Joel and Joaquin Buckley and Christian Perez, like all the really chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Read the full definition of Chalk ones. Maybe that's where Aaron Blanchfield comes into play in a vacuum. It's relatively tough, though. But yeah, my question, how much can Jasmine get up if Aaron takes her down is the main thing I'm I'm wondering. I wouldn't think very much. And I don't even know how much she would want to get up.

I feel like she could maybe think she can change the situation on the ground quicker than she could win on the feet. But I think JJ has to win this fight on the ground, but it would really be her getting the takedowns and her in top control. So if JJ were to win the fight, She's going to score well at $6,900. She would be on the optimal lineup.

It would be lots of takedowns, lots of top control time, maybe a submission, I guess, if JJ were to win the fight. So I got her as a three star for that reason. $6,900. She can kind of break the slateSlateIn MMA DFS, a slate usually covers the eligible bouts from one fight card. It can include preliminary bouts as well as the main card, so the headline fights are not your only possible source of fighters.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate with her style. But Blanchfield has the same style when she wants, and she's probably even better on the ground. She's more dangerous on the ground. She is a really good wrestler when she wants to be.

So she could beat JJ at her own game and score well. And I think for ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership reasons, she does make a lot of sense. So I have her three stars for that reason. But... If you're worried about anything from JJ, it's got to be the ground game. So why even flirt with that when you're the better striker? I think Blanchfield goes out there, wins thirty twenty seven on the feet and score seventy five points and doesn't get there. So I prefer not to use this lineup.

I didn't realize how sexist I was with all my two star fights, women only. But I don't think I'm targeting too much of the women on this card. Maybe dogs just because they're cheap. But yeah, I just like other fights more. Yeah, I mean, on average, though, like, women's fights finish less than male fights. I would be even almost more sexist. I guess this fight, maybe I would have a one-star, two at most.

This fight, I would probably have a one-star, but all of it would be on the stiller side. The Crow to Chandler fight, though, I'd probably have a three-star. So we see it pretty similar, but, yeah, it's... It's a car that I'm going to be hoping that probably all six or six men are on the optimal when it's all said and done. Unless it is Crodon because, yeah, I won't be playing too much myself. All right. Bryant is on.

The Canadian, the problem with this fight and being on the home cooking judges, like most of Aaron's wins, I think, will just be so dominant where you can't even pretend that whether you're home or not, like Blanchfield dominates on the feet or just on the mat. With that being said, though, what was it? Sosa, Lupe, Godinez, not too long ago, completely robbed Sosa there. So there's still blind, crooked, corrupt judges when it's all said and done. All right. It's the main events.

Good fight for sure. DFS and real life. Mike Malott, eighty four or $8,400. Mike is $8,400, but he's minus one twenty eight. Joaquin Buckley, plus one ten, minus one eighty for this fight to finish. The small dog in Buckley, plus one seventy inside the distance. Malott, plus one eighty five. This line completely failed. Well, minus three hundred at open for Buckley, two minutes or twenty minutes later, he was plus one thirty one.

And then slowly but surely money has came in on the lot side. I heard Big Marley. Not sure you knew that opening line didn't last long, but minus three hundred. Not sure whoever made that opener what they were seeing. You have four stars in a lot. Two stars. Buckley. Why? Why do you think a lot wins this fight? I just think he's the better overall fighter. Um, if we're turning knockouts off, we're taking takedowns out of the game.

I think it's a close fight, just point fighting, striking for striking. I would probably favor him a lot in that type of fight though. Uh, Buckley is more athletic, more explosive, more powerful. So Buckley is definitely live for a knockout in any round.

He's also maybe more durable, uh, than Malat as well so I think in any round Buckley's live for that knockout even at seven eight hundred I wouldn't really trust Buckley minutes a minute in a decision five round fight I wouldn't think that he's a lock for the optimal at that price so I don't love him in that regard I think he's just best played for an underground an underdog who is likely to get a knockout based on his style A ton of power, super explosive.

So I think he is live for that. But Milat's a good striker, too. He could knock out Buckley. He could win a decision if it were a striking-based fight. But the biggest advantage in this entire fight, I think, is Milat's grappling submission game. Not really wrestling game, like...

Usman and Brady how they put the wrestling shoes on Buckley I don't really see it being similar to that but I think Malat's alive to submit Buckley in any round on the ground uh so I just I'd prefer to pay $8,400 for Malat who I like him in the early portion of this fight um and I also think this is a fight that you can kind of not I wouldn't say fade at all but not be all in And hope that Malat, or really either one of these guys, wins in like the fifth round or goes to a decision.

And then I don't think it's a lock for the optimal lineup. I think Malat would be getting more takedowns and top control time throughout the fight. But I think he would be the one to slow down quicker than Buckley would. So I don't know. I mean, I'm not sure what this would look like late, but I don't have it going late. Give me Malat to get an early finish.

If it goes late, which, I mean, over three and a half is slightly favored, that's why I'm not going to be all in on this fight. Because I could see it, if it does go, the later it goes, neither really wrestling, both standing at range, trading kicks, trading punches. And there's enough mid-tier fights. Like I said, the Joel and Javid fight, $8,300, $7,900. And then an Eliger, Koslow, $8,200, $8,000.

Those fights can easily outscore this in a vacuum. And if they do, it's... More likely to be less dupesDuplicate LineupsDuplicate lineups are entries in the same DFS contest with identical player selections and scoring assignments, including any multiplier positions. In standard cash-prize tournaments, these entries tie and share the combined prizes for the places they occupy.Use the actual prize table to calculate your payout in a first-place tie with two, five or ten entries. Compare those outcomes before choosing between similarly strong builds.Read the full definition of Duplicate Lineups because just naturally with this five-round fight, Malat Buckley will be heavily owned. I'm on the Buckley side. Not the strongest take, but I think he is more likely to wrestle. And again, looking at his last two fights against Usman Sean Brady, maybe that is completely wrong and I don't feel too much confidence.

In that, but I just think he has more one-shot power. I think Malat probably is the minute winner on the feet with his jab at range, but I think Buckley will throw the bigger power shots, and if he connects, I mean, he's a scary-ass dude. There's no doubt about that. It mainly comes back to the six hundred dollars in savings, though. Any Malat team can go to Buckley. You're not giving up any upside.

He is more likely to win inside the distance by a little bit. So yeah, $7,800. Him, If you plug him in with Coslow, with Fagler or Flagler, whatever his name is. And yeah, cancel me. I don't I don't care. It's not what I'm trying to say, but you leave seven hundred. You're still playing three really good mid-tier fighters.

Two of them are the favorites, but playing Buckley and just going from a lot to Buckley and leaving at least six hundred is a way to get different when playing those plays. That is something I will be looking to do on this card, but not the hottest take or not, excuse me, not the strongest take on this fight.

I think probably when it's all said and done though, I'll be underweight to the main event and that'll be my stand hoping those other mid-tier fights outscore them. That's all thirteen fights. Fingers crossed we keep all thirteen, and after seeing Bomfy miss weight by seven and a half pounds last week and the fights still go, it makes me feel pretty confident now most of the time that we will get or keep all twelve, thirteen, whatever fights that we have on the card.

Shout out to Prado for being a dog. You do need that opponent to accept the fight, and obviously any medical issues and stuff, you can't... You can't ignore, like, the fight's going to be canceled if someone passes out or whatever it is. But, yeah, shout-out to Prado, and I hope more people take fights, even if the other opponent misses weight that bad.

They got to move that twenty-five percent weight miss, though, up to, like, fifty percent when it's seven and a half pounds. Like, that is absolutely crazy. We appreciate you, Bryant. Always love talking fights with you, Big Marley. Any final thoughts before we get on out of here? Yeah, I think weight misses should be ten percent per pound. I like it. Yeah, that would be my rule for sure. But no, hopefully it's a good DFS card.

I'm going to need it to be if I'm going to watch all these fights. But good luck to you, Title. Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it. Yeah, I guess the only thing before we get out of here, ten pounds per pound, like, someone misses by seven-and-a-half pounds like Bamfim, he's just not going to fight. He's like, what's the point there? But then he doesn't get paid, and he did everything for no reason. But did he even do anything? Like...

And, I mean, the fight, like, right when I saw seven and a half pounds, usually sometimes I'm like, all right, I give that guy the advantage. Usually not seven and a half. What I told myself was, this dude didn't even grind in camp. This dude didn't even try to make weight. Like, this lazy dude, he didn't grind. He didn't even care. And, I mean, it looked like it.

When it's like three and a half pounds, and it's like, man, like, I don't want to kill myself for that last three and a half. I'm going to...

Save myself like and then he can get an advantage that way like that's the stuff I look into with seven and a half you're not even trying like what did you do during camp and it sure sure looks like it that way so yeah it's a it's a tricky percent of his purse he might still take that thirty percent what else is he gonna do man he and I'm sure he doesn't have a full-time job he doesn't he's not an exciting fighter people aren't following him on fucking social media he's not getting paid big time for that so he still might have taken it.

If you're going to be that lazy, I'm sure you're lazy everywhere else, and he would have just taken it. So, ten percent per pound. Make the change, UFC. All right. From the man, Big Marley himself. That's going to do it, though. Thank you, everyone, for hanging out. Hit that like on the way out. Hit that subscribe. You'll get notified every time we go live and head over to Shippenation.com. A lot of different packages and options for whatever suits you best.

UFC is on a roll, so we'll be back next week. We are going to do it Wednesday, though. What did we say? Wednesday at five Eastern. Is that what we said, Big Marley? I can't remember. I can't remember what we texted. Yeah, I don't know. We'll figure it out. I'm probably available at five or eight forty five. Oh, yeah. Maybe we said it'll be on the show calendar. I'll let people know in the Discord as well.

I can't remember what I text Big Marley, but it will be Wednesday instead of Thursday. Have something going on. We'll be on a flight. So that's going to do it for us. Good luck, everybody. For Big Marley on Titletown. Good luck. Be safe. Peace.