UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

And then Brito has then since got some money as far as the inside the distance and open minus two hundred to finish now minus two fifteen. Brito open minus one thirty to finish now minus one sixty. Clash of Styles. You see Brito wrestles Giga strikes, but he's a low volume striker. I'm already going to say Brito, one of my favorite plays, I think, on the slate.

I guess saying one of my favorite plays is a little tough, but if you play Brito over Armin Sarukian and don't leave that hundred and he outscores him in a vacuum, that's a way you can get different. I just think Brito is going to wrestle early and often, and if that's the case, we know the upside at minus or at $9,200 that he would have as a minus one sixty inside the distance prop. So.

Hard for me to get much Giga since I think he gets wrestled in this one. And I think Brito's a good play at $9,200. What about you? Yeah, I like Brito in this one. I'm probably going to just full fadeFadeTo fade a player is to leave him out of your lineups on purpose, usually because you expect him to be popular or you think he is a poor play.Fade with a reason, not a feeling. If you can't say why a popular player will disappoint, you're probably just giving away points.Full explanation ↗ Chikadze. I think it would be terrible for Brito if he were to just stand at range and strike with Chikadze. That would be an easy Chikadze win, but that's just not Brito's style. He's rarely at range, it seems like.

He's definitely got knockout power, but he's got a pressure-heavy style where he's just going to be pushing the pace, getting it up against the cage, looking for takedowns, and I think it's just one-way traffic once he does get this fight on the ground. Chikadze's going to have nothing to offer off his back. I think Multiple takedowns is live. I also think a submission in Indy round is live. Also ground to pound somewhat. I think that that could be in play too for Brito.

So I really like him by any method. It's Brito or pass for me. I do like a lot of the $9,000 guys. So I don't know how heavy I'll be able to get, but I would like to be overweight to the field on Brito. Yeah, that's also kind of why I even like Brito more than I initially thought, is the $9,000 range is absolutely loaded. If you want to go Gable at $9,900. Sure.

Robelos to Spain favored to win in round one. $9,600. Ryan Gondra favored to win in round one. $9,400. All bigger favorites there. And then again, you have Sarukian for one hundred less than Brito. And you have Iwu in a fight that he's favored to win inside round one, too. So I think Brito has to be low on for that reason. And he is my favorite low-ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ pivot in the upper tier, I think.

I prefer Brito more than Choi, Brito more than Charles Jourdain, Brito more than you. And that's all we have right there. So I just think in chalkier lineups when I'm trying to get different, Brito I think is going to come in lower owned than he should for the wrestling upside he has. And, yeah, don't like Giga much at all. Let's get to next fight on the card.

It's a mid-tier fight, and there's only three mid-tier fights on the card, and it's Joshua Van Patoja and Shabazian Ferreira. Ferreira and Shabazian is now minus-two-seventy-five to finish. Obviously, the main event's great to target, so this has to be... OwnershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ has to stay in check, but Casey minus-two-twenty-one, Excuse me, Mora plus one eighty six plus one fifty five for this fight to finish. Casey plus two fifty inside the distance. Mora plus four thirty five. Yeah.

Why do you have four stars on Mora and two on O'Neal? Are you picking Mora to win? What makes you prefer her? Well, I actually should change that to three and three. I was struggling for underdogs just picking out right on this card. When I was doing my picks, I think Pantoja was even minus one oh five. So I got to the end of it. I'm like, damn, I haven't picked an underdog yet. So I.

I ended up going with Maura for that reason, but I don't feel good about it. I do think round one, Maura is going to be super alive to somewhat dominate the fight with takedowns. She could threaten submissions. I also think she could just have a takedown heavy type of style and win two rounds on the cards. The longer it goes, though, she's just going to start to fade. And I think round three, it's going to be harder for those takedowns to come.

But maybe she's already done enough to have won two rounds, can put those in the bank, not get finished in the third, and still score around ten X that $7,700. So I do like Maura as an underdog. But Casey O'Neill is definitely the one with the higher ceiling. I think it's kind of one way traffic on the feet. She is the better striker, the more dangerous striker and the one that can push a pace and keep cardio going for three full rounds.

So that's The longer it goes, the more it's going to favor O'Neal. But I think round one especially, Maura can really look pretty good in this one as an underdog. So I really just went with her because she was an underdog on a card that, spoiler alert, I'm really not picking any underdogs on. I'm with you. I'm not picking many underdogs either. With that being said, I'm not with you on more as my preferred play.

I think this is a great spot for Casey. Open minus one ninety now minus two twenty one open plus three hundred inside the distance. Now plus two fifty taking on someone that. After one and a half rounds, I think Maura's going to be really tired. She was really tired in the Wayne Kong fight. Casey O'Neal pushes the pace, seven point eight nine significant strikes per minute, one point four takedowns. If it's on the feet, O'Neal's just going to be spamming significant strikes.

She will have to fight off takedowns. And that is how this fight does bust. Maura dominates round one with the wrestling. Casey wins two. It goes to decision or something like that. But we've seen Casey put up big boy, big girl scores, excuse me. And that's because she can wrestle, she can strike, and she has good cardio. And I think that really could come into play in this one against Morris. All the line movements on her.

And I think at $8,500, again, people will want the Van Pantoja fight. They'll want the Edmund Ferreira fight. You are paying something for $8,500. Iwu is only two hundred dollars more. I'm not thinking that Casey's going to be low-ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗, but her ownership has to stay in check to an extent. This fight's going to expect her to go the distance. People will see that. Casey could put up a hundred ten in this matchup if it goes right for her.

So I plan on being overweight. Casey. Yeah, we do need dogs. More is going to want to wrestle. So I don't think she's terrible. I think she's a fine play at $7,700. I'm just picking against her, but I'm fine with Maura as well. Again, she has to be somewhat low on to Pantoja. And Ferreira will be preferred plays. And then I think Mennefield will also be higher owned than Mora. Let's get to the next mid-tier fight, the second of three.

And again, the other one's the main event. So this one is Edmund Shabazzian, minus one seventy. Bruno Ferreira, plus one forty five, minus two seventy five for this fight to finish. Shabazzian, plus one twenty five inside the distance. Ferreira, plus one seventy five. I mean, those are just phenomenal inside the distance props for an $8,400 and $7,800 fight. With that being said, though, this fight did open minus three twenty five to finish. Now it's minus two seventy five.

So some money has come in on the over. I don't think either is going to really wrestle. So if this fight does get to the second round or for sure the third round, I'd be worried about this fight. What do you think of this one versus the Casey O'Neill Mora fight and how do you see it going down? Yeah, I think this one just has more finish equity, especially in round one.

But yeah, the longer it goes, the more I would like the O'Neal fight for sure. I would definitely worry about this one being a stinker. The winner scoring like in the sixties, if this were to go to a decision and just both of them, given the other a little bit too much respect on the feet. I do think wrestling's in play really for either side, but more so the Shabazzian side. I just think he's the more complete fighter. I actually like his gas tank more.

Usually he's the gas tank where we're fading and fights. But in this one, I think he has the better gas tank. Um, Bruno Ferrer is just as more one shot knockout pop power. He's the stronger guy of the two. Um, he's alive for a knockout. He's also alive to grab a neck and get a finish as well. But I think Shabazzian has that same upside just by putting combinations together and finishing for air on the feet.

And he can also threaten submissions on the ground as well. I also like him to be the more consistent wrestler through three rounds. And then I think Shabazzian is the minute winner as well. So he's my pick to win, my preferred play. I think Ferrer will be a little bit too owned for my liking, so I'll plan on going underweight to him, overweight Shabazzian. All right. I like it. I'm a little different.

I prefer for, it's kind of like what we just said about the last one for you. I'm going Ferreira over Shabazian, but it's mainly because he's six hundred cheaper. And I think they have the same upside. So like why you liked more than Casey a little bit. I'm going Bruno over Edmund. The money lines closer in this fight for the dog. I think the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ is, Bruno is going to get owned for sure.

But I think the upside again, plus one seventy five inside the distance, Bruno and Edmund have pretty much the same. And I'm getting six hundred savings on a card that I am struggling with some dogs. So I prefer Bruno. I do think Edmund's a solid play as well, but definitely not an all in fight for me because there is a chance.

This is like the Curtis Blades Waldo fight last week where they stare at each other for fifteen minutes and it absolutely disappoints. A fight that I don't think plays out like that is this next one in Ryan Gondra, minus .五百, taken on Ozzy Diaz, plus .三八七, minus .九百 for this fight to finish. Gondra, minus .四百 inside the distance. Diaz, plus .四七五. I'm not seeing any round one prop on Gondra on BetOnline, but I'm seeing some at other books. Let me just make sure I... What the heck is it?

Oh, minus one thirty five minus one thirty range at some other books for Gondra in round one. Yeah, I mean, I think Gondra is a great play. He's supposed to win in round one. So we'll score. I will say, though, I think Ozzie Diaz is also a very good play because I think he'll be very low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. And he's what? Plus four is Moneyline's plus three eighty seven is inside the distance is plus four seventy five.

It feels like almost any Ozzie Diaz win is going to be optimal, and I think his chance to win inside the distance or his money line is higher than his ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. So for all those reasons and a card that I'm struggling to get different on and pick dogs, spoiler alert, I'll be cheering for Ozzie Diaz in this fight. He loses a lot more than he'll win in this one, but when he wins, I think he'll get paid off pretty healthily.

So healthily, that's not a word, pretty healthy. So yeah, Ozzie for me, but I do think Andre's a good play as well. Yeah, I think that all makes sense. I think you can just kind of match the odds with your ownership on this one. Go with first round. You're max on Gondreau with first round, which you said minus one thirty five. That's like fifty seven percent. And then he has twenty percent. Yeah, I think that that sounds pretty good. Gander is definitely powerful.

He probably is going to knock out Diaz. He's aggressive. He's going to throw hooks to try and knock Diaz's head. But I mean, all of his hooks are just real wide loopy. Punches and he just throws them with aggression. I think somebody eventually is going to crack them right down the middle or like a step in elbow. It could be Diaz. I would imagine any Diaz win at $6,800 is going to be enough.

So I'm definitely cool getting exposureExposureExposure is the percentage of your lineups in a contest, or across a slate, that include a particular player, team or stack.Set exposure caps before you build, not after. Decide the most you're willing to have on any one player, then let your lineups fill in around those limits.Full explanation ↗ to him. Pick to win is going to be Gondra, though. I just don't think Diaz is a good enough fighter for to to make it three rounds without getting knocked out by Gondra's power. I think Gondra would be the more likely wrestler, too, if that were to come into play. But I'd imagine he's getting the first or second round knockout here.

And uh competing at least for the optimal yep I agree um we'll head to the next fight again before we do so just want to thank everybody for hanging out like button helps us out a ton subscribe button as well a lot of views on these shows for a long period of time so far so we couldn't do it without you guys always uh always appreciate the live chat anyone that drops YouTube comments just watches We appreciate you guys for sure.

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Let's go to one of the worst fights, in my opinion, on the card. Ju Sang Yu minus two thirty two. Michael Aswell plus one ninety four plus one forty for this fight to finish. You plus one ninety five inside the distance. Aswell plus five thirty five. I like it's pretty much Aswell or bust for me. The reason on most cards, I would not like Aswell. With that being said, he has the best money line in the lower tier.

He's taken money since the beginning of the week and he lands seven point six significant strikes per minute. And what should just be a striking match on both sides favored to go the distance. So I think he's the best floor play in the range, which if no dogs win, I want a floor at $7,200 when I think studs are going to score really well. And yeah, I don't think there's too much upside on a lot of these dogs down below either.

So if he scored seventy, if I knew anyone scored seventy, $7,500 or below, I'm at least three X the field, probably four or five X. So ask well or pass for me. You's going to be super low on if that's how you want to get different. I think I prefer some other ways, though. Yeah, I am cool getting different with you. I think he can win by knockout early in this fight.

I like him to be the better striker overall, the more powerful striker. He's got a hands down style, but I think it can lead to some body shots and that could open up the chin. On an aggressive Aswell. But that hands-down style could also lead him to get knocked out by Aswell. I think Aswell's volume could possibly beat him in a decision. So both of those are reasons to play Aswell.

I just don't want to get too much of him because I like you to win the fight. I don't like the price tag on you if he's not going to get a first-round knockout.

I mean, maybe second round he could try to flirt with the optimal lineup, but it might be too late at that point if he's not getting – multiple knock downs in the process so uh you is really just a way for me to get different on the on the lineups where I'm already chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ enough I'm fine with him at $9,000 as opposed to like a just at what a third of the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ um and if that first round knockout happens which is actually what I'm projecting to happen um I think it it'll be it'll be looking pretty good on DraftKings okay so you like you more than burrito

At a two hundred dollar discount I don't know about that I think burrito can score well multiple ways it's just at ownership I'm cool with some exposure to to you instead of burrito makes sense I mean I think you might come in eleven percent owned his round one prop plus five hundred sixteen point seven percent anytime you see that again I don't think all round one wins from you will be optimal I think we see some big boy scores in this upper tier this week.

With that being said, if I knew you was going to get a first round knockout, excuse me, I would want a lot more than sixteen percent when I think the field will be at eleven. So that is one way Big Marley is going to get different is playing you. And we got to find ways to get different on this card. Another way I will be getting a little difference. Little Thai Tuivasa maybe? Shuivasa? He is a big underdog.

Plus-five-twelve against Robelis Despain, who's minus-seven-hundred. Minus-one-thousand for this fight to finish. Despain minus-four-thirty-five inside the distance. Tuivasa plus-four-ninety-five. Despain round one, open minus-one-thirty on BetOnline. Now it's minus-two-forty for Despain in round one. That is a big-boy number. Man, I'll never forget fucking Despain against Waldo.

Getting wrestled when I was one away from a I think I took sixteenth and top fifteenth went to the live final uh it was around two of it so I'll never forget all I need is this pain to win and the dude's an absolute bum but Yeah, he should find his way. The problem is he's $9,600 in this. It looks very similar to Gondra. Rebellious, better money line, better round one prop.

But I can totally leave two hundred and play Gondra over Rebellious to get different. I also think everything I said about Ozzie Diaz applies to tie to Ivasa. Again, a worse money line, worse inside the distance slightly. So I like him a little less than Ozzie. But when Ty wins, I don't see really how it's not optimal. I think it would be a knockout or maybe somehow he wrestles. Again, I don't really expect that much, but we need underdogs. He's going to be low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗.

The Spain's going to get some ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. So you get leverage. I'm going to hope probably one of Ozzie or Ty Tuivasa wins this week. I think that's one of the best ways to get different while eating chalk and not giving up upside. Okay, so I did wanna pull this up. So we, thank you for saying this. We are starting to automate everything over everything from the win odds and to the right. This is all automated.

So there might be a little, I'm going to get rid of these .

Five someone else behind the scenes who's way smarter than me at technology is doing all this stuff but yeah that is why you see a little different right now every single person for the significant strikes takedowns regardless of three fights max you're going to see that odds will change on Friday automatically but how old is he actually I can make that change he's like yeah he's thirty eight oh shit Maybe Phil was just truly wondering how he was thirty eight. He's back here.

But I did want to say that as well. This is automated and I do want to change these point fives in terms of height. But take it away. What do you see? Oh, man. Yeah. I mean, I want to like tie here. I just don't. I don't think I'm going to put my money on tie. I really don't even know if I want to play to Spain just because of the $9,600 price tag.

Once you get over $9,500 just becomes hard to make it on the optimal lineup, especially on a card. Where I don't like underdogs. And if I do want to go over $9,500 this week, I'd rather try and get up to Stevenson. So I put it as a four star because it is a minus nine hundred inside the distance. Both guys have first round knockout potential. Dispain is just the more athletic, taller, longer, faster guy. He's an actual striker.

I think he is going to get the knockout at some point. But Tuivasa still has one-shot KO power that could just put him away at any time. The issue is that he's lost seven straight fights and he's landed, uh, a hundred and sixty-six significant strikes without landing that one-shot knockout. So I just don't think that it's really in play anymore. I've also heard the wrestling angle. He's got eighteen UFC fights, never landed a takedown. I think those type of fighters, when they wrestle, it's bad for them.

They just start to gas out faster and faster. If he wrestles round one, I think he's gassed by round two and probably gets knocked out then. So I'm probably going to not play any Tuivasa and it'll be Despain or pass. I do think Despain's the second most likely to win inside sixty seconds as well. Yeah, over someone we'll talk about in two fights, I'm guessing, and the odds also show that.

Before we do talk about that fight, though, we got to go to pretty low-ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ fights and not one I have much interest in. Charles Jourdain, minus-two-twelve. Marlon Chito-Vera, plus-one-seventy-nine. Plus-one-seventy for this fight to finish. The underdog and Vera better inside the distance profit plus three hundred versus plus four hundred for Jordan.

I mean, anytime you see a Marlon Vera name, it's usually when I say anytime you see Terrence McKinney, anytime you say Benoit, it's going to be a great fight to target. Anytime you see Marlon Vera, it's probably going to be a really bad fight to target. This dude does absolutely nothing. I mean, not even just the first round, pretty much all fight. With all that being said, though, he's the underdog with the better inside the distance prop.

In a fight that's supposed to go the distance and we need dogs, so I've already said sixty might be enough in a win from Vera. If I knew he scored sixty, I would play some. But he also, this is his first fight after switching camps, which you never know. There's just more uncertainty and volatility that he might come out a little different fighter. I doubt it. I mean, the dude's... Twenty three, twelve and one. He's fought for a long time. It's not just the coaches and stuff.

It's your own self going out there. But there's at least a chance that maybe we see a little different Marlon Vera. I prefer Vera because he's fourteen hundred dollars cheaper, better inside the distance prop. Tough for me to get to Charles Jordan this week. What about you? Yeah, I doubt I'm going to play any Jordan. I would need a lot of lineups before I got to him. Just because Vera is like unfinishable. He can't knock this guy out. He's super good on the ground.

I just don't think Jordan is even finishing him if he is able to get the fight on the ground. But I expect... A striking match. And I just don't think it'll be high enough volume for Jordan to pay off an $8,800 salary. So he's one of my least favorite favorites on the card. And then Vera would just be my floor play over a guy like Aswell. I think he does get fifteen minutes to work with old Vera.

I would even like to win this fight, probably drop the first round, pick up the pace in the second, the third round and get it done there. But I just don't even know that new Vera Has that in him anymore. He just hadn't really picked up the pace in like multiple years. So I think Jordan is likely to win the fight. That's why I have it as a two star.

But Jordan, I mean, but Vera can hang with him on the feet and also on the ground. He could also look like a favorite in either area if he were to kind of turn back the clock a little bit. He's only thirty three years old. So Jordan, I mean, sorry, Vera is my preferred play of the two, but I'm picking him to lose. All makes a lot of sense to me. What's up, Go Collect? Great to see you again.

All right, I think you spoiled what you were going to say about the second most likely to get a win inside sixty seconds. It's not Gable Stevenson. I don't know who it's going to be, but this dude is minus $2,500. Take it on Sean Sheriff plus twelve hundred minus sixteen hundred for this fight to finish. Stevenson minus fifteen hundred inside the distance. Sheriff plus thirteen hundred. I don't see any.

Sixty second um prop and actually I'm trying to find yeah minus three thirty ish at some books for stevenson in round one I guess yeah what do you see any odds of sixty second finish and then even if he did get a sixty second finish like what are the chances that's optimal a dude's $9,900 with dogs that are very tough to come by so I'm gonna be underweight and I'm not gonna play any sheriff but I mean, yeah, he's going to frickin he's minus $2,500 and very heavily favored to win in round one.

It's really just a pricing thing. So, yeah, take it away. Yeah, I'm not sure how likely he would be, even if he were to get that sixty seconds, just because, I mean, $9,900 is so freaking so much. But let me see if I can find this real fast. So what am I looking for? Round props. No, they don't have it out yet. Yeah.

But, yeah, I just think that I feel like I've heard that there's some bad blood between these two. And Stevenson, I mean, he's the best wrestler in the UFC maybe. So he could easily go out there and wrestle his way to a decision, wrestle his way to a ground-and-pound finish, maybe grab a neck, choke this guy out at any point. But if he wants to test out his striking, I think this is another matchup where he can do that.

And I think he can push forward, be aggressive, knock this guy out in the first sixty seconds. Um, I also think he could get the fight to the ground in the first ten seconds and just dominate this guy on the ground until the ref stops in. Uh, I mean, he steps in to stop it. Either way, I think he's gonna put up a big score. Will it be big enough? I don't know. Um...

Will there be enough underdogs on the card that win to even be able to get to him at $9,900? I don't know either. So I have it as a four star for that reason. If he was $9,500, I'd be all in on him. But $9,900, that takes me off quite a bit. So I think I'll probably have just a little bit of exposure trying to force him into a couple of lineups.

But overall, most of my lineups just won't have this fight. I agree. I just, yeah, if I'm playing a hundred and fifty or seventy five plus, yeah, maybe get at least ten percent. It's just really, really hard for me to click that name in $9,900. And we have so many other killers in that $9,000 range as well. Let's get to another killer.

I mean, a fight that I think is very hard to ignore, even though it's not even five rounds, is Iwu Baraniski, minus-two-forty, taking on Alonzo Menafil, plus-two-oh-one, minus-eight-hundred for this fight to finish, under-one-and-a-half, minus-two-forty, Iwu minus-two-hundred inside the distance, Menafil plus-two-forty inside the distance, Iwu in round one, Minus one twenty after opening plus one seventy five. Yes, you read that right.

He opened plus one seventy five inside the distance and now is favored to open plus one and seventy five in round one and now is favored to win in round one at minus one twenty. That is something I cannot ignore. Under one and a half being so heavily juiced, the price is at only $8,700 $7,500 outside of Van Pantoja and maybe Suruki and Hufi. This is my favorite fight, but it's really hard for me to ignore it.

If I had to pick a preferred play, it's going to be Menafield, but that's just because I need to click dogs. He's twelve hundred cheaper with the same amount of upside. It's not that I'm picking him, but man, it gets tough when you play Van fight, Sarukian fight and then this Iwu fight. That's kind of what I'm saying about Ozzie Diaz and Tai Tuivasa and what you're saying about you.

You just have to do something different if you don't want to hold hands with everyone on the field. So. It's not my favorite card this week. I'm glad we have two five-rounders, but it's going to be very heavily concentrated to certain fights. This is one of them. It's just hard for me to ignore those concentrated fights as well. I think it's good chalk. What do you think happens in this one? Yeah, I think we're probably going to get a knockout.

Just Iwu's aggressiveness is probably going to lead to a knockout either way because these guys both have big-time power. Minifield, he's definitely powerful. He's strong. He could try to slow this fight down and maybe win minutes. And get it on the scorecards if he was going to slow down at some point.

But I just think it's going to be similar to the other Iwu fights where he blitzes in early and starts throwing combinations, and maybe he lands one or he gets countered and Manifield gets it. But I would imagine that we're going to get the under to hit in this one. My preferred play is Iwu just because I like him at $8,700 just as much as I like Gable at $9,900.

I think it's going to be another first round. And a possible sixty second one. I mean, he's got three wins in the O.C. He's averaging one hundred and seventeen DraftKings points. Nothing to like. I mean, not like there. And I'd be cool just making a lineup where I am not able to get up to the Dispaines and the The Stephens is just starting off with like a burrito, a U, and then an Iwu and seeing what that does for me.

I think that's different enough. They're just using U. And if you get away from the main event, I think it's really hard to do because of their salaries. I think you're already different as well there. But I mean, we'll get to it. But I feel like that's my favorite fight on the card. This is my second favorite. I like it. So are you fine going Tsuruki into Iwu and leaving four hundred and really chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ teams as a one V one pivot?

Yeah, I'd definitely be cool with that. I think he was one of my favorite, if not favorite plays on the card. Yeah, no, I like it as well. I the salaries make it a lot. Very intriguing. And the fight's also minus nine hundred to finish. So or minus eight hundred to finish. Excuse me after opening minus six hundred. So, yep, a fight that you cannot be ignored. Three fights left. Again, appreciate everyone hanging out. It's D.

Hu Choi taking on Patricio Pitbull, minus-two-seventy-five Choi, plus-two-twenty-eight Pitbull, minus-one-thirty-five. For this fight to finish, we have Choi plus-one-oh-five inside the distance, Pitbull plus-five-sixty. I'll let you start this one off. What are you doing? Oh, man, I'm probably not going to use it too much with some hand builds. I like it more for MME. We're just kind of clicking on whoever's there, and I don't know that I'd have a big-time preferred play in that case. I do like Choi to win the fight.

I just think he is the better overall striker, the higher-paced striker, the more dangerous and faster striker at this point. Pitbull's a badass, man, but I think those guys from the Bellator days crushing it ten years ago, it's probably just a little bit over for them. Kind of like Michael Chandler. They're around at the same time. So thirty nine years old. I think Pitbull has a chance to knock out Choi on the feet just because of Choi's recklessness.

But I just don't see Pitbull being able to win minutes on the feet. And then he turned to wrestling, I think, two fights ago. Maybe he can land a couple couple takedowns here. I just don't think he's going to do enough with them. To win the fight.

So I really think for him to score well, it's going to have to be to knock out Choi and probably the same thing on the Choi side as well, because I don't think Choi is going to go out there and wrestle. I don't know that he's going to have high enough volume to outscore these other $9,000 guys on the card. So he might be looking at a first round knockout for him to be on the optimal as well. But I'm hand builds.

I'm looking to get to other fights. I mean, I'd be fine with either side. I agree. I prefer Choi to Pitbull, even at higher ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. But again, Choi's going to be very low-ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ in that upper tier. Similar to you, except a little higher-owned than you. But we need pivots there. I think Brito Choi would be the one. Patricio's thirty-nine years old. His chin's definitely been cracked a bit. I think he's going to be way slower on the feet. I do like seeing...

Choi opened plus three hundred in round one. Now he's plus two seventy five and that is twenty six percent. And I think his ownership will probably be somewhere in the fifteen to eighteen percent range. So the numbers check out there. $8,900 is a solid price. And going back to what you said in the last fight. Yeah, I'm totally fine skipping like the four highest priced fighters on the card. Iwu, Choi, the mid-tier fights that we have, even Brito, Shabazian mid-tier fight.

But there's enough upside that's not. Stevenson, Gondra, Despain, all of that, where I'm fine building lineups like that as well. I wouldn't want to go Sorokin to Choi in just a one-on-one pivot in that one. Obviously, I'm assuming I have no hoofie in that team. And then on the Pitbull side, I think he's probably going to try and wrestle because I think he's going to get pieced up on the feet. I just don't think he really has much success.

I think it's a Choi unanimous decision or a knockout when it's all said and done. So Pitbull falls down the list. I like him more than Giga, but I like like Aswell more. I like Chito Vera more. I like Mennefield more, Hoofy more. And to be honest, maybe at ownership, I like Ozzie Diaz and Ty Toivasa a little more too. So Pitbull definitely falls down the list for me. Two fights left. Co-main event time. And again, this is a five-round fight.

Armin Tsurukian. Mauricio Hufi. Minus three-fifty is Armin. Plus two-eighty-four is Hufi. Minus three-twenty-five for this fight to finish. Tsurukian minus one-sixty-five inside the distance. Hufi plus three-forty. Looking at round one for Sorokin plus three seventy five. Some line movement in this one. Sorokin opened minus three fifty, got down to minus four hundred pretty quickly. Then Sunday he was only minus two seventy five before. Now, obviously, on Thursday, we're looking at minus three fifty.

So when money on Sorokin slowly but surely money on Hufi and then a decent amount of money. This week on Armin and then as far as this fight to finish, minus two sixty for this fight to finish at open. And now it's minus three twenty five. It's a great fight to target. I prefer Van Pantoja picking since I think the pace is higher and the pricing. But a wrestler in Armin versus a striker in Hufi with the undertaking money. I mean, how does this fight fail?

Probably fails with just a striking match the first couple rounds and then maybe Saruki and looks to grapple late. I would imagine something like that. Yeah. Yeah, I think with five rounds to work with, both guys are going to have a decent chance at the optimal lineup. Armand's a great striker. I'd really pick him to beat most of the division in a pure striking match. But I would pick Rufy to beat the entire division in a pure striking match.

I just love his style, the angles he throws at. He really just looks like Conor McGregor in his prime. And I think he's definitely going to give Armand problems on the feet, which is why Armand should be looking to make this a wrestle heavy, grapple heavy type of fight, because it's probably one way traffic on the ground. He's the best wrestler in the division now that Islam is gone.

And I think he could make quick work a roofie on the ground, or I think he could make long work and just dominate twenty five minutes with a clear decision and score one hundred and forty plus points. On draft King. So Armand is my preferred play because I don't think, um, Rufy can really win this fight without a knockout. I don't think it's going to be on the feet long enough for him to win three rounds.

Uh, so I think he's really relying on knocking out Armand within that to get his hand raised. I just love his overall style. I think he's the full package. I like him to wear the belt soon as well. Um, but yeah, the reason to not use this fight would be that Armand does strike more than he should and just Maybe he finishes it in the second round with the submission and just doesn't get there at high ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗.

Also, on the roofie side, I feel like he's going to be the cheap dog that everybody goes to. A lot of those lineups are probably going to be the ones that get up to Despain and Steveson. So that kind of makes me want to get away from him and just go heavy on Armand or even avoid this fight to get different. I agree with you on that. I think naturally Hufi is going to have to be pretty chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗. I already think he loses.

I think Armin dominates on the mat. Because that's the case, I'll probably be underweight Hufi, a little overweight Armin, but I will have some fight fades as well, hoping maybe it's a striking slash staring match early. Even if Armin wrestles the first two rounds and Hufi got a third-round knockout, like, seventy could be enough. We keep saying that at $7,100, which does make it tough. I prefer Van Pantoja and we'll have a hundred percent of that one.

Then once you have a hundred percent of both five-round fights, you're really asking for trouble in terms of holding hands, but... Not all cards are equal. I think if I was holding hands with thirty five people the first this week, to be honest, I think that very well could be a good lineup. Whereas some weeks I would not say that.

So I wouldn't try and get as restrictive as normal with trying to eliminate dupes on this card again with twelve fights to five rounders. The Iwu fight is really, really clear fights to target. So that's my thoughts there. All right, main event time. We keep talking about it. What a fight. This is going to be a rematch from a twenty six second fight where Alexander Pantoja dislocated his elbow or fractured his elbow trying to brace himself on the fall, which then led to Joshua Vann.

Getting the belt, and then he defended the belt against Osura Tyra in an absolute great fight. It is Van. It is Pantoja. Minus-one-thirty-three is Van. Plus-one-fourteen is Pantoja. Minus-two-fifteen for this fight to finish. Van, plus-one-forty inside the distance. Pantoja, plus-one-ninety. Looking at Moneyline... Where it opened and where it's at now. So Pantoja actually opened the favorite at minus one seventy five, got all the way down to minus two seventy.

And then money has been coming back on the van side and has not really stopped again. Minus one thirty seven plus one seventeen. Now, all I'm going to say is one guy is four hundred cheaper. One guy was a minus three hundred favorite the last time they went about it at open. Joshua Vann just fought Tyra. Tyra had Vann in a lot of bad spots on the mat. And Tyra's a great grappler, but Pantoja is different.

His cardio, I think he really, really, really wants to win this fight. I think there is a little bad blood just with how that last one went down. Pantoja can push a pace. I think the cardio... Van's got better cardio, I think, but Pantoja just finds ways to fight through it. And then when it's on the mat, Pantoja's back takes and grappling is just so dominant that I think he can win rounds that way.

So, and he's four under cheaper on a slate where we need value that I can go any van team to Pantoja pretty easily. It just all sets up mainly for the Pantoja side for me. So that's what I got. What about you? Yeah, I'm going to be on Pantoja. He's just the dog I feel best about on this card. And if he wins, he's going to score really well.

Either of these guys are going to probably put up a hundred, a hundred and ten plus points in a win. So I think it's an all in fight. I also don't even hate stacking it in a GPPGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗ if you want to go that route. But yeah, I think it's a striker versus grappler matchup. Both guys are well-rounded. Pantoja can strike with Van for a little bit, but not for twenty five minutes. Van will just pick up the pace. He's just too high volume.

I think eventually he would knock out Pantoja if it were to be a striking match. But I think Pantoja can hang with Van longer on the feet than Van can hang with Pantoja on the ground. And yeah, this line drop in twenty plus percent just based on a freak injury in less than a year. I just had to side with the underdog. So he was my side with the money line. But also I'm going to need that four hundred dollars on this card.

So I like him even more for DFS. But it makes me not want to make a ton of lineups on this card because I don't want to go all in on Pantoja. And then like going like sixty percent Pantoja, forty percent van. I feel like I'm throwing money into the pot, especially if I don't hit the nuts. So I'm probably going to try and hand build ten or twenty lineups and just maybe even be all in on Pantoja.

Just kind of make it like that's my bet for the week instead of going money line Pantoja, just all in on DFS.

Don't hate that you did mention uh even possibly stack and I actually wrote that up in my write-up too and I almost never do that I do think it is viable to stack van pantoja on this card I mean if it does go to the championship rounds I'm expecting a very high-paced fight If it makes it to the championship rounds, that means I do think Pantoja and Van are both having their own moments.

When Pantoja gets takedowns, that means control time, takedowns, but also reversals are then in play for Van. He lands so much volume. If that Edmund Bruno Ferreira fight busts, if the O'Neal Mora fight goes the distance, isn't as good as we think. Dogs are really tough on this card. We could definitely see a hundred fifteen from the winner and eighty two in a loss. And that could be enough at $7,900. So I would not X out fight stacks like I usually do on most cards.

Yeah, they're just really closely priced in a high paced fight with five rounds to work. And it's going to play out on the mat a little bit. So I'm excited for this card. Real life DFS. I'm indifferent. I think it's one of the worst. Two five-round fights that we have. Thankfully, we have twelve. Fingers crossed we do keep twelve fights. If it goes to eleven, it is definitely going to get ugly.

But as always, all of our content, if it went to eleven, everything is up at the Slate Station. You can see projections and ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ as well, which will be up on Friday. All of our content will be up on Friday. But Discord's a huge piece of our product over at Ship It Nation.

Usually I'm tagging the Discord about line movement, any changes to the Slate Station, anything like that again we'd love to have you at the nation shipination.com join the nation in the bottom left you can see all of our different options five days for nineteen dollars is the cheapest to get in but if you're just playing MMA I do think single sport is a good way to start uh MMA single sport less than a dollar a day you can get all of our MMA um contents projections write-ups course you name it we got you covered big Marley final thoughts before we get on out of here Hopefully it's a fun one.

Hopefully it's a profitable one and we're not holding hands with too many people up top. Good luck to you, Title. Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it. Good luck, everybody. Enjoy the fights. Enjoy NFL. Enjoy college football. Enjoy PGA. Enjoy MLB. Enjoy NASCAR. That's a lot of sports going on right now. A lot of money to be made. And again, we can help you out.

At least give you guys our best efforts with projections, ownership, and the content professionals over here in each individual sports. Good luck, everybody. Enjoy the fights for Big Marley on Titletown. Good luck. Be safe. Peace.