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MLB DFS Process | DraftKings & FanDuel Picks, Plays & Slate Breakdown | Thursday, 09/17/26

Aired Thu Sep 17, 2026 Hosts Zach Trivett & Scott Gyiraszin Runtime 32:43 Chapters 10 Views 674

From the archive. This breakdown is for the Thursday, September 17 MLB slate. Salaries, weather and picks were for that day.

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The Short Version

Zach Trivett and Scott Gyiraszin break down a five-game slate with concentrated pitching ownership. Taj Bradley ($9,500) is the obvious strikeout play against the Angels, but Sonny Gray and Walbert Urena offer preferred alternatives depending on ownership. Nolan McLean stays in the pool with control and lefty-matchup concerns. Framber Valdez ($6,800) draws split opinions, with his salary savings providing a different construction if modest pitching scores are enough.

The Astros stack leads against Seth Lugo and a struggling bullpen, with Yordan Alvarez getting a home run call. The Tigers stack follows against Erick Fedde, especially the lefties. Kansas City offers affordable left-handed bats and lower ownership, while the Mets and Phillies are secondary options. Boston ranks around fourth. Angels bats provide leverage against Bradley, particularly Wade Meckler as a one-off; Minnesota draws split opinions despite its low ownership.

FadesSeth LugoErick FeddeCody BradfordLuis Arraez

Plays Mentioned

PlayCallThe TakeAt
FADE Explicitly excluded from the pitching pool, with recent struggles making Houston a preferred attack. 4:12
FADE Explicitly excluded from the pitching pool and targeted with Detroit bats because he is not missing bats. 4:12
FADE Excluded when the pitching pool was narrowed to six other arms. 4:12
SP Clear strikeout option at $9,500 against the Angels, although potentially extreme ownership makes alternative pitcher combinations appealing. 4:35
SP Preferred pitcher if ownership stays below the displayed projection, with additional FanDuel appeal from his quality-start potential. 4:35
SP Ranks near the top of the pool because his strong ground-ball rate offers safety against Minnesota despite inconsistent strikeouts. 8:05
SP Lower-priority addition to a narrow pitching pool with some upside on a short slate. 8:58
SP The hosts were split between excluding him and using his $6,800 salary to afford bigger bats if a modest pitching score is enough. 9:24
SP Remains in the pool but draws underweight interest because of recent control problems and Philadelphia's left-handed bats. 9:48
HR CALL Called to homer against Lugo because of Lugo's recent struggles against left-handed hitters. 13:46
Astros TOP STACK Favorite full stack against Lugo and a weak bullpen, with alternative pitchers or different secondary stacks recommended to offset ownership. 15:07
ONE-OFF A preferred individual bat because of his power, with interest regardless of the lower overall ranking of this game. 17:13
Phillies LEVERAGE Sneaky stack built around left-handed hitters against McLean's recent struggles, although the hosts preferred different sides of this game. 18:05
FADE The Philadelphia hitter singled out to avoid because he offers little home run power. 18:05
Mets IN PLAY Affordable left-handed bats against Nola are appealing, with recent team OPS supporting the interest despite differing preferences between the two offenses. 18:29
Tigers TOP STACK Ranked second behind Houston in one ordering, with Kevin McGonigle and Riley Greene leading the preferred lefties against Fedde. 20:31
Royals TOP STACK Named among the top three stacks for their affordable left-handed bats against weak pitching, although the hosts differed on their ranking relative to Detroit. 22:16
Rangers LEVERAGE Low-owned leverage stack against a preferred pitcher in Gray, with limited overall enthusiasm for the bats. 22:35
Red Sox IN PLAY Ranked around fourth against Alexander and Bradford, but unlikely to make a pool of only two or three stacks. 23:50
Pinch-hit risk is the main concern when considering him in Boston stacks. 23:50
Twins LEVERAGE The hosts were split between low-owned late-game leverage and avoiding Minnesota because of Urena's ground-ball rate. 25:16
LEVERAGE Called an elite one-off for leverage against Bradley, whose recent fly-ball profile is more favorable to left-handed hitters. 27:28
Angels LEVERAGE Low-owned exposure against Bradley's expected heavy ownership is viable, with stronger interest than Minnesota but still below the leading stacks. 27:37
White Sox IN PLAY Secondary stacks are viable on the short slate, though the hosts were split because Valdez's ground-ball rate discourages attacking him. 28:02

DFS Terms Used on This Show

OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 2:41 LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 2:41 Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 3:25 Twenty-MaxA twenty-max contest lets each user enter up to 20 lineups. It sits between small-field formats like three-max and the largest 150-entry tournaments.Plan all 20 lineups before building any of them. Decide your stacks and exposure limits first, so the set works as a portfolio rather than 20 separate guesses.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 4:35 Game StackIn baseball, a game stack means rostering hitters from both offenses in one game, typically in a hitter-friendly park or against two weak starting pitchers.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 15:07 ChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 16:28 Bankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 31:42

Full Transcript

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0:05

Clear for liftoff. What's going on, everybody? Happy Thursday. I'm back with my man, G_Rizen, talking some baseball. Five games on DraftKings, five games on FanDuel. Seven, fifteen, Eastern start time. Had some early baseball going on, so hope you made some money there if you were in the streets. Obviously got some football. Tonight, got some golf showdown going on as well. A couple days, got MMA, got NASCAR, got college football showdown actually tonight as well.

1:02

There's a lot of money to be made in the DFS streets. We will do our best covering some baseball. Again, five games, not many. We'll be out of here in about thirty minutes because right at thirty minutes at five eastern. MMA, me and Big Marley talking UFC three thirty one. So excited on that. Just do us a favor. Like buttons all we ask for. Subscribe button.

1:22

We'll let you know when we go live for all of our shows again, including that show coming up in thirty minutes. Three of them today for me, G_Rizen football, baseball, MMA, living the good life over here. It's that time of year. How you doing? Good, good. Hey, you're like multi-versatile. You're like that utility guy on the baseball team. Gets it done in every position. It just doesn't matter. But, no, fun to always be on here.

1:46

Appreciate you hanging out a little extra there. The day job, man, I get driving on them crazy-ass freeways. Sometimes it just doesn't work out as quick as you need to get back home. But always good fun. Listen to some – you know, had Mr. AI read me some stuff along the way. So I got in my baseball time a little bit. So, uh, pretty happy about that. But man, yesterday I told y'all Alonzo is going to hit a bomb off them, them fucking mats.

2:14

Like he's so mad at them. It's like, damn, like this dude was like, when you throw a bat like that after hitting a game tying Homer, there's like some frustration there. So I was glad I got a little bit of cheese off that yesterday when he hit a Homer, but, uh, Yeah, what do we got? Five games. Doesn't look like too much weather to worry about. Pitching isn't so great. We don't have any crazy Coors Field or Sacramento games, any of that nonsense.

2:41

Matter of fact, we got, what, one nine-thirty game and pretty much three at seven, so we got one late one, but yeah, fun. I like these five-game little slates here. Yeah, I don't mind it as well. You know where it's going to be concentrated in terms of OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, getting different, getting LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗, playing low own stuff. If there's a sport to do it, baseball, one of the highest variant sports.

3:03

It's a good way to attack, as we can see right here, going to team stacks, sorting by projected runs. No one projected for over five, only one team projected for above or below four. So I do think it's pretty much a jumbled mess. In terms of ownership, we know where it's going. Todd Bradley will be the chalkiest pitcher on the slate. I'm not exactly sure I believe Sonny Gray is going to be forty eight percent.

3:25

I think it's going to be closer with the Framber, with the Urena, with the McLean of the world. So I don't necessarily believe this. I don't believe it. Let's just see. Let's go something like this and this and maybe this. I think it'll be something more like this, but I think it's clear. And maybe even Taj Bradley comes in. Seventy percent. I think it's Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ stuff. He's probably going to be in the seventy five, eighty percent range.

3:52

But I do think it's clear people are going to go to Bradley and then bats. I think it's going to be relatively spread out. Maybe the Astros probably since they have the highest run total. Are the highest owned, but I don't think it's going to be by too wide of a margin. Let's talk some pitching right away and just Hammer it out. Again, I'm going to sort by salary.

4:12

I'll let you talk if you want to talk about any of these like Bradford or even Lugos and below. It's pretty easy for me. I would X out these four. I would X out Eric Fetty, and then I said I would X out Seth Lugo as well, which would then leave me with a pool of Taj Bradley, Sonny Gray, McClain, Urena, Nola and Framber, those six. And I would be totally fine just rocking six pitchers on the slate.

4:35

If that's too many for you, I don't know. I think Sonny's my favorite, again, because I don't necessarily believe that OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. If he was fifty percent, he would not be my favorite. And then it's probably Urena for me. I'll let you talk about pitching, though. How many are in your pool for Twenty-MaxA twenty-max contest lets each user enter up to 20 lineups. It sits between small-field formats like three-max and the largest 150-entry tournaments.Plan all 20 lineups before building any of them. Decide your stacks and exposure limits first, so the set works as a portfolio rather than 20 separate guesses.Full explanation ↗? Who can we fade? Who are your favorites? Yeah, we got a little... Some slim pickings. Bradley, rightfully so, is the SP one on both sides, $9,500.

5:02

I mean, he's got the highest strikeout rate on the season, twenty seven percent. And then we look across and, you know, lo and behold, he's got the Angels who we always like to chase after righty anyway. So that's pretty obvious. It's just especially on a five gamer. We don't really have too much to choose from. Then when it comes down to the others title, I think it's interesting when you're sitting looking at, You got Sonny Gray, McClain, and Urania.

5:29

So I'm just going to look at, I've been kind of mentioning how, you know, the age, some age factors catching up. You kind of look at Sonny Gray a little bit. And old Sonny here has struggled a little bit in the last thirty days, especially the lefties. He's been getting barreled up at a fourteen and a half percent.

5:47

Uh rate which is pretty high is k percentage is there to lefties at twenty seven percent but his k percentage to righties is at fourteen percent so it's down a little bit from where he's at uh control a little bit off to the lefties but man sonny's been really good over the uh over the course of the season I wouldn't call him like a great DFS type pitcher but we know what you're getting out of him especially on FanDuel he's got a good chance to get you a quality start I mean, out of all the starts this year, he only got beat up maybe two or three times all year.

6:21

It seems like he only gave up more than three runs. So for me, on FanDuel, he's a better play on FanDuel than I think he is on DK. But I do like Sonny Gray at this point. And if you look at McClain, he's one I'm just a little bit more concerned about, actually. He has not looked good at all in his last thirty days, especially the lefty. So his walk percentages is way high.

6:44

So his control has been a little bit off, especially lefties. Eleven percent. He's at thirteen percent to righties with his some walk issues. His ground ball rates down at thirty five percent to lefties. He's been getting barreled up by lefties. Fly ball rate is still still pretty low at twenty two percent, but McClain just, I don't like to control issues. And then I look across and you're facing Schwarber, Harper, Stott, Marsh. I mean, there's some lefties there that could beat him up.

7:14

So McClain for me, I got a little flag, a caution flag there. I'm a little concerned about Mr. McClain. I mean, earlier in the year, yeah. I mean, he was a stud. In the World Baseball Classic, he looked pretty good. I think that's kind of starting to wear him out a little bit. That extra pitching that he had to do at the beginning of the season. Now, Urania, I mean, on a short slate against the Twins, I mean, I don't hate Urania.

7:43

He's like up and down with strikeouts. You just don't know what you get. It's like putting the bagel dice in, you know, in something and rolling it. You don't, you have no damn clue what you're going to get. You could get twelve. You could get two. You could get snake eyes. Who freaking knows? I'll take that on a five game slate. I'll take that. But what I like title is his ground ball percentage. The dude's ground ball percentage is almost sixty percent.

8:05

So, I mean, to me, he's a really safe play. So. Instead of like me chasing a guy who just seems like he's trending backwards at this end of the part of the season. I mean, I'd rather play like a Urania, I think. So I think I got Urania right behind Taj Bradley. And then I think I'd go Sonny Gray. And then I think I would go McLean. So after that. Maybe Nola you could look at.

8:30

I mean, maybe for some upside if you wanted to go there. I can't play Framber. I personally hate that guy, and he's on the Tigers because he's such a little baby. Like one little thing goes wrong, an error happens, or some bullshit, and you can just see the freaking wheels coming off the cart. It's like he's proven it for like two seasons. Bless you. So, you know, so, you know, I mean, I just I have a hard time playing Framber.

8:58

I just can't do it because it's like one of the things that's like more frustrating, you know, and you're like, I knew better than to play that donkey. So I'm going to leave him out. So truly, I think I'd only have five guys in my pool today. Be Bradley one, Urania two, Gray three, McLean four. Then I'd probably throw in Nola and I can't go anywhere else. Great breakdown. I like it. You and I are very similar. You would X out Framber.

9:24

I would leave him in mainly just because he's $6,800. Seven hundred from Nola, who's the only other pitcher that we liked in the pool. Seventeen hundred savings from Urena. So it just gets you on kind of a different roster construction. If you do want to play some big bats, Yordong, Harper, Schwarber, Soto, you name it. If you want to get a little roster construction difference. It keeps the ball on the ground, not going to miss many bats.

9:48

It's more of if this is a floor slate at pitching, which, again, with only five games, there's definitely a chance that's the case. Fourteen from Franberg could be enough. But I got it ranked Sonny, Urena, Taj Bradley. And I guess I'm just going to say Framber, Nola, and then McLean. I'll back you up on your McLean. Not loving him too much. And, again, at ownership is the main thing. Because I like Sonny right there, Urena.

10:14

He's sandwiched in between my two favorites. Just naturally I think it's right to be underweight him. So that's how I see pitching. Again, I do think this Toddish Bradley number only gets higher, though, especially in Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ stuff. It's so hard to play Mets, too, with McLean. Doesn't it seem like the Mets' sale drifted off? I feel like it's been going for a while. Alonzo just basically just peed right on their face. Yeah, he did. Yeah, he did. That was cool. Good for Mr. Polar Bear, Pete Alonzo.

10:44

I had to feel good coming back home and, you know, the New York and all them. And New York fans, everybody knows it. They can be assholes. So, you know, to cheer them on like that, that's kind of cool. That's a cool baseball moment. A hundred percent. Yeah. I mean, they just want the owner gone. What a joke it's been for the Mets the past couple of years with all the salary cap they have as well. All right. We are going to talk some bats.

11:06

But again, before we do, I said it from the top. What a massive day we have in the sports world today. Obviously, we got your Lions taking on the Bills. Phenomenal game on Thursday night with big boy DFS prizes. Obviously, we have baseball. We're talking about it. But PGA is still going on. Do not forget. We have showdown content that you can find right here. College football. We also have a showdown game tonight as well. We'll have a slate tomorrow on Friday.

11:30

Of course, on Saturday. Shout out to the college football team. Does a phenomenal job. MMA, we'll be talking about it right after this on the show. This is Saturday, though, a pay-per-view or no such thing. But a numbered card, UFC three thirty one, three thirty one and NASCAR on Sunday. So a bunch of content. NFL, college football, PGA, MLB, MMA, and NASCAR. That's six sports we got going right now.

11:57

If you go to the left bottom or join the nation, if you haven't tried us out at all, I think the best deal just to get your feet wet and give us a try is this five days for nineteen dollars. You get SaberSim, you get access to the Discord. And again, five days takes you through Sunday, so you'll get NFL main slates and everything you need this weekend. You'll get access to all six sports if you do want.

12:18

If you do already know that you want to be a part of us, you cannot beat these prices. Again, with everything going on, it comes out to, I mean, a couple dollars a day. And if you are playing more than just one sport, I definitely think...

12:29

Finding the core hundred or starter is your best deal I think starter allows you to build more lineups you get sabersims projections ownership you get late swap portfolio diversification DFS Mastermind for free I think starter is the best deal which is a little more than the core hundred If you're playing thousands of dollars a week or even a month, I think checking out the contest sims and the ultimate package is something that you might be interested in as well.

12:55

Far right single sport, though, we do have options for that. If you just play MLB, we still got you covered less than a dollar a day. Can add on SaberSim for a little more. We'll have playoff content as usual in the MLB streets. But again, five days for nineteen dollars, I think is probably the best deal for many if you have not given us a try. All right, let's head on over To the stone over here at Chippenation, let me take this back a little bit.

13:22

All right, let's go down to the first game of the night. Probably the chalkiest team in the Astros taking on the Royals, Seth Lugo, and then it's going to be Ethan Pecko as the long reliever with, it looks like, this Yola guy or something opening the game. So it's going to be more of a bullpen game, but this Pecko character will probably throw about eighty pitches, assuming he's doing solid.

13:46

Against these uh these Royals that you always love to roster so what are you doing in this one beating the shit out of Seth Lugo I mean how can you not I mean this guy's terrible and then the funny part is is the bullpen's worse so I mean lugo in his last thirty days has got a four fifty two wool by the left side hell yo hello Jordan that sounds like a Jordan bomb coming in to me so I mean, Lugo's K percentages are pretty low.

14:16

Just been getting smashed all the way around. His ground ball percentages are low. He's normally a little bit higher. He is at fifty percent right to the right side. But, man, you got the worst bullpen. You got a guy that's just been getting beat up, especially the lefties. I mean, Astros coming out the gate. You got a game total of nine. Yeah, I like the Astros. I think they're my favorite. And if you look across here with...

14:41

What Houston's going to be rolling out looks like pretty much of a bullpen-type game. I don't know. I just normally don't play the Royals all that much. I know they're going to have a starter here, what, Uola, whoever you say that. And then, I mean, they all have pretty low strikeout rates, walk a lot of guys. You know, I mean, it's just hard for me to like some Royals title. I just haven't played them all that much. But we do have a five-game slate.

15:07

I think pitching on both sides of this game is very weak. So I think attacking it with both sides, I think I would more like the full stack to Astros and kind of many of the Royals is more or less would be my approach. You could even Game StackIn baseball, a game stack means rostering hitters from both offenses in one game, typically in a hitter-friendly park or against two weak starting pitchers.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗ this one if you want coming right out the gate pitching so bad. So I don't mind that at all. But Astros for me would be my favorite. Mute donkey, mute donkey.

15:34

I think these Royals are actually a little interesting. This Pecko dude, it's a very small sample. So, I mean, I like, obviously, the more sample we have, the bigger, the better. But, man, in like, sixty plate appearances, these lefties are absolutely crushing Pecko. And then you go to this Royals lineup, Carter Jensen, lefty. Jack Caglioni, lefty. Vinny P, I want to say he wasn't in the lineup maybe. Let's see. Yeah, Vinny P is not in the lineup, unfortunately. Carter is, though.

16:02

Caglioni, Massey, Rave, Isbel, Collins. Six of the nine batters for the Royals will be hitting from the left side of the plate. Only two higher priced than $5,000. Everyone else is cheap. And they're going to be relatively LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. Let's see, seventy two percent. And that's our look to be higher owned. Astros will definitely be higher owned. Tigers, we have higher owned. Red Sox, we have higher owned. And that's right there.

16:28

So the middle of the pack, when you are playing Taj Bradley and you want to eat a little more ChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗, I'm definitely good playing some of these Royals. Again, prefer the lefties, but the three righties they have, Bobby Witt, Garcia, Selby, obviously all three of them are very solid themselves with upside. So I'm more interested in the Royals than I think the public do. And yeah, the Astros... They're just going to be really chalky.

16:50

I think my favorite way to play the Astros is probably not to play Taj Bradley and rotate two of the other pitchers of the four that we talked about. But again, if you play Taj Bradley and the Astros, maybe play the bottom of the order, get somewhere very different with your mini stacks, but at OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ on a short slate, you definitely have to be concentrated with your total roster ownership. All right, let's keep it rolling.

17:13

Next game on the slate, the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillips. Aaron Nola and Nolan McClain on the mound. You were chirping Mr. McClain a good bit. So do you have any interest in some of these Phillips Mets? I mean, I'd have interest in Schwarber any day of the week. I mean, that guy just hits missiles. So I don't have either one really too high up in my – too high in my rankings.

17:41

I mean, if I had to play either, I mean, I got three or four, I probably have four teams that I probably have ahead of either one of these two. But I mean, if I was going to pick on anybody, You know, I guess I would rather pick on McClain, especially with the lefties, just how bad he's been getting beat up here in recent times against the left-handed side. So, I mean, they're going to have, you know, a rise.

18:05

It's probably the only one I really wouldn't probably roster just because he just doesn't have all that much home run pop. But Schwarber, Harper, Stott, Marsh. Crawford stuff. I mean, I think you can play all of them actually. So I think it'd be my sneaky stack title. I think I'd call them my sneaky stack. And I'm kind of just going off the fact too, like if they get past McLean, like how fun is it to be a Met right now?

18:29

Like it's, I mean, I can't even imagine it's, you know, even fun going to work. It is. They're probably looking forward to the, you know, getting the hell out of here. So yeah, I like some Phillips, especially Schwarber. Fair enough. I'm more on the Mets side than the Phillips if choosing, and I prefer the lefties. The lefties can get after Nola and look at it. Oh, same thing. Six of the nine batters will be hitting from the left side of the plate.

18:55

I don't have nearly as much interest in the righties like I did on the Royals, but yeah, you can easily play. Only Juan Soto is the only one priced above four point $5,000 and then it's Lindor. So they're cheap enough. They grade out well in the hitter rankings. As you can see, the first seven batters, excuse me, all under a hundred for the ranking. And then Aaron Nola, number ten in the pitcher ranking on a short slate is not very good.

19:19

So, yeah. I will mention the number two title. Yep. Sorry to cut you off. Last fifteen days, the Mets have the highest OPS of any team on the slate. So, I know the Mets haven't, you know, been really hitting all that much this year, but maybe they're just in fuck it mode. But they actually are like third in baseball in the last fifteen days in OPS, which actually surprised me.

19:41

Tell you the truth yeah yeah I like that that's uh great information makes me like the Mets even more than I initially did all right let's get on to the next game of the slate Chicago White Sox and your Detroit Tigers Eric Fetty Framber Valdez on the mound I'll let you start with it uh yeah it's your Tigers you should know everything about Framber and about your bats what are you doing in this one the second highest OPS on the slate in the last Eric Fetty isn't going to strike anybody out.

20:13

He's not going to miss any bats. I don't think he's very good. And I think the Tigers, this is kind of like a playoff game for the Tigers. They need to win these four games, at least get three out of four, even to kind of get themselves back in contention for a, for a playoff spot. So Tigers backs are up against the wall.

20:31

So I do like, I do like the Tigers have more experienced pitcher on the hill with Framber, but I think the Tigers bats, I mean, To me, they're my second favorite stack behind the Astros. So, I mean, I'm looking to get after Fetty, especially with lefties. McGonigal would be at the top of my list. Riley Greene would be up there at the top of my list. But Fetty just has not been very good recent times. His ground ball percentages are low.

21:00

The last thirty days, Eric Fetty's fly ball rate to righties is almost forty-seven percent. That's pretty high. That's ridiculously high. So he's been getting barreled up by both sides. Man, Max Clark, McGonigal, I think they can get the job done here today. So give me some Tigers against Fetty. As far as any White Sox go against Framber, Framber's more of a ground ball pitcher. I mean, he's been getting a lot of ground balls, especially the right side here in recent time.

21:29

And he's going to see, what, eight righties? I mean, he's had a sixty seven percent ground ball rate in the last in the last month. Seventy two plate appearances. I mean, that's that's pretty high. So I'm not really wanting to chase after any kind of ground ball pitcher. But, man, I think the Tigers are in a really good spot because I just – Eric Fetty, I just – that guy just keeps coming back, keeps coming back.

21:53

Like, I don't even know how that guy has a job. But either way, I think the Tigers are in a pretty good spot. I agree. I also like the Tigers quite a bit, which is a little scary. But, I mean, you're just looking at the prices. Outside of McGonigal, no one above – McGonigal, no one above $5,000. So the pricing is in check. They're going to get some OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ on this slate. Them against the Royals is really tough for me.

22:16

I'm going to say Royals slightly above the Tigers. I know your Tigers above the Royals, but both guaranteed ninth in the at-bats. Taking on pretty bad pitching. Pricing in check. A lot of these check the boxes. I think Royals, Astros, Tigers actually are my three favorite stacks on this slate, so...

22:35

Of tip my hand right there don't love these next two games when talking bats but it is a relatively low owned on the slate so you can always make a case for it on this short slate but the Red Sox and the Rangers sunny gray Cody Bradford on the mound again sunny gray is my favorite pitcher on the slate so I don't want to play many Rangers again with that being said though LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ and just five games playing a OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ stack you cannot go wrong with one bit Man, I don't know, though, about these Red Sox as much.

23:06

So it looks like it's going to be Tyler Alexander starting and then Cody Bradford after that. Both are lefties, which I do like. I just would rather play righties for Bolton. You don't have to worry about a lefty and then a righty coming in or vice versa. Still, outside of really the middle of the order for me, the Wilson Contreras, Jones, Abreu, I don't know. I guess I take it back.

23:30

The more I look at it, the more appealing the bottom of the order can get for me. Outfield, outfield, outfield. The first three batters, though, to start off, makes it a little more difficult to stack. Maybe the Red Sox are like fourth or fifth for me on the slate. What are your thoughts? I got the Red Sox about the same spot. I mean, Alexander is just going to open up that game.

23:50

I mean, and after that, it's just going to be more of a bullpen type game. I think the only one I worry about is Jumaane Jones is a pinch hit. I think he'd be a guy that I'd be a little bit concerned about. But after that, I mean, yeah, I don't mind it at all. I have it fourth. But if I'm playing two or three teams, I'm probably not going to get to the Red Sox.

24:12

I actually like the Tigers a little bit more. I like the Astros more. I think that's pretty much where I'm going to be lying. Maybe a little couple Royals sprinkled in. But, yeah, I mean, Red Sox for me, I'd put them in, you know, of the ten teams today, I'd probably have them like fourth, right around what you said. I wouldn't discount them, that's for sure. Yeah. All right, we're on the same page. A lot of away teams for me.

24:33

Red Sox, Tigers, Royals, guaranteed ninth inning at-bats. I will be hoping those three teams or the Astros get the job done today. And then the five or six pitchers that were in the pool, two of them are optimal. That's what I'll be hoping. All right, last game of the night, the Twins and the Angeles. Again, do note, so every single lineup's out for these first four games because they're all within, what, an hour of each other.

24:58

And then this one's really late at nine thirty eight Eastern. Thankfully, not a game I love as much for bats. With that being said, very low owned on both sides. You will get a lot of LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ off of Taz Bradley, who's the chalkiest on the slate. You'll get a good amount of leverage off of Urena and hoping lineups aren't out by seven fifteen Eastern at Locke.

25:16

NFL is going on a lot of stuff's going on in the sports world and just life. I don't think people are going to want to wait around for Twins and Angels lineups. So a lot of appealing things just in the game theory, the lineups not being out, it's going to be super low owned on a very short slate. So anytime that's the case, to be honest, I probably like the Angels and Twins lineups.

25:36

More than the Rangers, more than the White Sox, probably more than the Phillips, maybe even the Mets, just pure game theory. But yeah, outside of that, can you make a real case for either of these two teams in a vacuum? It'd be real hard for me to click on too many Twins, especially with Urania on the other side, up on that hill, especially with them ground ball rates.

25:59

I just don't like the you target ground ball pitchers all that much when there's always better options out there for you to go after. So with Urania, I can't really roster any Twins.

26:15

Now with Bradley, if you do want to get some leverage, I think I would more or less just kind of look at you know, maybe some of the lefties, if you wanted to go there as ground ball rates been pretty low at twenty six percent as fly ball rates been a lot higher. He's at thirty seven percent fly ball rate the last thirty days, the left side and compared to the right side where he's at half of that at eighteen percent.

26:36

So, yeah, that's a big difference. So lefties, maybe Wade Meckler, if you wanted to go go there, I think that'd be a guy maybe if you wanted to look maybe like a one off if you want to go there. But The Angeles just don't have that kind of lefty lineup that I think you could go after Bradley with. I mean, if we're looking at some of the other teams that have more lefties, then I think I may be more willing to stack Bradley.

27:03

I mean, you look at his game log, he's given up. A handful of games in the last ten games where he's given up four runs. So it ain't like he's Superman. But basically we're basing that off of he's got the highest K percentage against the team who strikes out the most. That don't mean they still can't hit. So I don't mind the theory at all, to be honest with you, especially on a five-gamer. So definitely – Definitely viable, but the Twins for me would be tough.

27:28

But attacking Bradley, especially the OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ he's going to get, I don't mind that at all. But Wade Meckler, I think he's an elite one-off play.

27:37

Like it that's a very good breakdown yeah I prefer Angels to the Twins just for the simple fact that I think bradley could be sixty five percent in flagship seventy five eighty percent in Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ uh which is again higher than we have projected probably than most of the industry but I do think you see more steam on shorter slates when You have to play two pitchers, and it gets uncomfy pretty quick. So, yeah, don't mind the Angeles. But, again, they do fall down the list a bit.

28:02

I think you can get to a different secondary pitcher-ish or play the Angeles as a mini stack or the White Sox or any of these teams as mini stacks is clearly viable. If you're playing fifty-plus teams, I'm probably – I don't know. Maybe I need seventy-five-plus to then stack, I was going to say, all ten teams. But, for sure, if you take away the Angeles, the Twins, and – and Sonny Gray against the Rangers.

28:33

If you take away Twins, Angeles, Rangers, stacking the rest of the seven teams probably would only take me thirty, thirty-five teams, and I would have at least one five-man stack in all of them. Looking back at what pros do in baseball and stuff, it is a lot more spread out than other sports, again, with just how much variance it is. And as someone that five-man stacks almost predominantly, when that goes wrong and the team scores three, your lineup's just dead anyway.

28:58

So it's easier to diversify your portfolio is something that I've noticed. Last thing I want to mention, I didn't say it from the top, but there is only one weather game Roth has. He has Phillips and Mets at yellow right now. He thinks it's going to play through, so we talked about it like it will, and my guess is it will. But, yeah, just don't. Get in the Discord over at Ship It Nation.

29:18

Follow Roth on Twitter, something like that, just in case that there is a change in that game. That's going to do it for us, though. Again, head over to Shippenation.com. Football going on tonight. PGA Showdown. MLB, of course. College Football Showdown tonight. MMA, NASCAR. Big Marley and I will be talking UFC in six minutes here once we get off. Always great to talk with you, G. Rison. Any final thoughts for this slate? Any Lions-Bills prediction you want to give before we get on out of here?

29:47

Say hi to my man Marley for me. I don't get to see him that often. Missed the fun the last time all the crew got to hang out. So make sure you say hi to him for me. And as far as the Bills Lions go, Lions are going to be down three starting offensive linemen, which is not going to be good. It's going to put the pressure up. Then I heard that Olivares child had passed away recently.

30:07

So Bills Mafia is rallying all around that. So I think Mr. Oliver is going to be fired up. So that's going to put a little more pressure on that offensive line. So in my view of it, that means Goff's going to have to get the ball out really quick. And who does he do that to? Amon Ra, St. Brown, number four team, probably would be my MVP on the Lions.

30:27

But on the other side, I'd go Shakir because we saw what Olave did against that weak-ass secondary that the Lions have. I do expect a high-scoring game. My favorite captain would be Shakir with Amon Ra, St. Brown, right behind him because I do think St. Brown's going to have ten-plus catches today. Fairly easy. And probably none of them are going to be longer than twenty yards because he's going to not have time to throw the ball today.

30:50

Hey, I like that breakdown from the Lions fan there. Man, I didn't know that Oliver, his son, it was like a month ago, maybe even a little. Yeah, it wasn't too long ago. It's the first game out there in Buffalo, home game, new stadium. Like, there's going to be a lot of emotion going on in that game. Late June. Man, he drowned. That is so sad. So sad. I couldn't imagine. Yeah, great breakdown, though. Always great talking to you, G. Rison.

31:15

And I will definitely tell Big Marley that you say hi. Good luck to your Lions tonight. Yeah, G. Rison thinks they cover. The only reason they cover is because Vegas got too much liability on the Bills. And there you go from the man G rising himself. You have a great night. Enjoy your Tigers and your lines and your safety meetings. Like I know you will do all three. Good luck to everybody in the streets, whether it's MLB, NFL, college football, whatever you have it.

31:42

We have you covered in all the content. Again, Ship It Nation.com. Join the nation. You can get in as low as nineteen dollars for five days. Single sport packages or core starter ultimate, depending on what fits your Bankroll ManagementBankroll management is how you size your DFS spending relative to the money you have set aside to play, called your bankroll, so normal losing streaks do not wipe you out.Write down your per-slate limit before the season starts. Spending rules are much easier to keep when you set them before a losing streak, not during one.Full explanation ↗ most. Good luck. For G-Ryzen, I'm Titletown. Head over to the UFC show in two minutes. Peace.

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  1. 0:00Intro
  2. 2:29Slate Overview and Ownership
  3. 4:06Pitching Breakdown
  4. 13:23Astros vs Royals
  5. 17:12Mets vs Phillies
  6. 19:47White Sox vs Tigers
  7. 22:35Red Sox vs Rangers
  8. 24:47Twins vs Angels
  9. 29:03Mets vs Phillies Weather Update
  10. 29:41Lions vs Bills Prediction

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