MLB DFS Process | DraftKings & FanDuel Picks, Plays & Slate Breakdown | Monday, 08/24/26

OwnershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ going to be right around probably twenty percent or so. But the big one, Parker Messick, $9,500 looks like the SP one on the slate, despite having Chase Burns, Zach Wheeler, Ashcraft, who's been good. Logan Gilbert at home. Parker Messick just underpriced compared for the matchup. Angels third high strikeout rate in baseball, especially against left handed pitching. Messick's just been dialed. So I think Parker Messick looks absolutely incredible on this slate.

Logan Gilbert pitching at home gets a Phillips matchup that there is strikeouts in there. There's obviously power, Schwarber, Harper, Brandon Marsh, but rest of that lineup. I mean, kind of up and down. Ashcraft is the guy that I think nobody clicks on at $10,000 gets the matchup against San Diego. It is a good ballpark for pitching. However, San Diego has been really good over the last month and a half or so. And then two guys up top, Zach Wheeler, Chase Burns.

I think both are good plays. The guy who's going to get ownership is Zach Wheeler. So it's going to go Messick, Wheeler, and then it's probably going to be a mix of Gilbert and Robbie Ray. And then I think Chase Burns kind of comes in fifth amongst the group, or fifth, and then sixth would be Ashcraft, I think, is kind of how I see it.

Or fifth, sorry, fourth and fifth for Burns and Ashcraft, at least projected dry run and stuff like that would, show that. How do you see this top tier, though? What's your rankings look like? Who are you in on? Who are you out on? Who are you not going to play? Who are you playing? That kind of stuff.

Interesting to me that the first guy you mentioned was Robbie Ray, because well, that's probably just because of his price tag, that he's right at that threshold, that $1,000 line. So I get that. And he's got the best matchup. I mean, Pittsburgh stinks, especially against left-handed pitching right now. So on another slate, I'd be a lot higher on Ray. There's just too many guys I like on this slate. So I think you are right on point there.

I think ownership goes Messick, Wheeler, and then the other guys, like kind of split between Burns, Gilbert, and Ray. And there's a lot to like about each guy. Messick, as you mentioned, he's just been dialed. He's a dog. I love the cut of his jib, if you will. He's just got an ace-type mentality. The Guardians are finally playing decent ball. Swept Colorado, now another good matchup.

You know, I prefer the Angeles against right-handed pitching, but – I'll play any good pitcher against them, and I'll play Messick in basically any matchup. So fine with the lefty here. And that lefty thing versus the Angeles was more when they had Joe Adell, who's now on Cleveland, and Jorge Soler, who's now not on any team. So great matchup for Messick. I like him a lot.

He seems underpriced compared to where the rest of the state is because if you put all these guys at the same price in their respective matchups, I still think Pesek might be the highest owned, and he's the cheapest of all of them. So, yeah, you got to like Pesek here. I think you're only getting off him for two reasons. One, he's going to be really highly owned, and then two, there are other good pitchers.

I mean, you mentioned Gilbert and Wheeler in that same game. Elite pitching park here Gilbert we know is always better at home wheeler gets the park upgradeBallpark FactorsBallpark factors, also called park factors, measure how much a stadium raises or lowers scoring compared with an average park. Altitude, fence distances, foul territory and typical weather shape them, and some parks favor one side of the plate.Check whether a park factor is split by handedness. Some parks boost left-handed power while doing little for righties, and that split can change which hitters you stack.Full explanation ↗ I prefer wheeler sort of the field and he's a thousand hours more I think you can make a strong case for both those guys I'm out on Ashcraft. I'm just not using pitchers against the Padres right now. Their offense has been so good over the last couple months.

And Ashcraft is good, but I don't think he's better than those other pitchers, and he's more expensive, and in by far the worst matchup. For me, I'm out on him, but he'll be the lowest owned by a lot. So I get that play just from an ownership angle. I like Burns here. If I can get to him, I'd like to. It's just a price thing, man. If you're playing Messick and Burns, it's hard to spend up on bats. So that's kind of where I'm at.

How about you? Yeah, so I'll start with kind of Messick my SP one. I love Messick on the slate. If I can pair him up with Zach Wheeler, I think that's great. If I can't afford Zach Wheeler, I think Logan Gilbert my next guy. Chase Burns and Braxton Appcrash, I'm going to put in the pool. I think Burns is an elite spend up to be contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ on the slate. I ran one hundred fifty dry run teams.

And I got three percent of him in tournaments or in SaberSim. So that tells me right there people aren't clicking that. They're fine saving the two hundred dollars and just clicking Zach Wheeler. So I think that's an elite option with I mean, I'll take I mean, I'll take a what? Thirty percent ownership discount. I think something like that and just say, hey, Chase Burns, basically the same price. You have kind of the same roster construction. Yeah.

I mean, Wheeler has Seattle, which is a good matchup, good place to pitch. But Chase Burns is pitching in San Fran against the triple A lineup, both side of Devers and Eldridge. Right. So. I do think he's a great option in tournaments. I don't think many people actually get up to him. I know he's projected to be right around twenty percent ownership. I just I believe in what dry run and projections say. And the props would suggest Wheeler's a better play.

Projections also say that projected a full almost two points higher than him. Ashcraft, I am going to play some. I get the reasoning I get against San Diego offensively. I just in, I'm going to play all these guys up at the top. I'm spending up on pitching here tonight. So in a team say like I'm playing the Twins, right? The Twins chalk offense insider health and great hitting. It looks like the best spot on paper.

That's where I'm probably going to play a guy like Ashcraft, right? Something like that, because I know everyone else is going to play Zach Wheeler, Gilbert, Messick. I would play Ashcraft in a team like that, right? So it doesn't take much to get overweight on him. He is still a good pitcher. He does still have upside in there. I know the matchup isn't the best overall. But in MME, it's probably not a main three-lineup, single-entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ type stuff because San Diego just doesn't strike out.

But if Ashcraft has his best stuff, I think he does have a ceiling, and he's going to be unownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ for that pay. So in tournaments, I think it's a pretty solid play. Robbie Ray, I'm not messing with Robbie Ray. I actually like some Pittsburgh bats against him in that ballpark. I can't do it with Robbie Ray. Won't be shocked to see him have a ceiling here.

I just – why would I I'd just rather spend up to fifteen hundred or drop down to a cheaper guy um that we're gonna talk about here in a second so I'm out on Robbie Ray no no Robbie Ray interest for me but the top five guys Messick Gilbert Ashcraft wheeler burns I am ranked Messick number one wheeler two Gilbert three burns four Ashcraft five is kind of how I see this top tier I will have exposure to all five of them down below I think burns is that much lower owned than uh wheeler here Yeah, I do think so.

I mean, I think it's probably going to be a fifteen to twenty percent delta. Just because I just, I mean, projections, you look at the props, right? You look at Wheeler. Wheeler's got the best prop in the slate, seven and a half K prop. You look at Chase Burns, six and a half juice to the under. Wheeler's juice to the under seven and a half, but it's a full strikeout higher. You look at the outs prop as well. Wheeler tops the charts there.

Burns, seventeen and a half. Wheeler, seventeen and a half. But Wheeler's minus one seventy five on the over. Burns is basically even money on the under. Right. So.

Just that and the projection alone I mean an average across the industry right now has zach wheeler almost two points higher than Chase Burns for two hundred dollars less so I just don't see how people click Chase Burns um despite even the matchup right um people have been picking on Seattle anyways with opposing pitching especially over the last couple of weeks um I just don't see any way how burns is even remotely close to wheeler and ownership I could be wrong but that's kind of why I think burns is a really good play in tournaments for two hundred dollars more um Cause I do think that usually the dry runs are pretty telltale sign.

And I mean, I ran the dry run. We're only three hours to lock and that's kind of what it's saying. Pitcher projections don't change a ton outside of, um, these lineups. Um, might have a different guy here or there, and they might adjust a little bit. But I think it's probably going to stay pretty true, and that's what I'm seeing. Could be wrong, but I do think it's a pretty good angle in tournaments here to go in on some Chase Burns.

It's not like Wheeler's pitching in a much better ballpark. I mean, the ballparks are pretty good. I definitely agree with you that if Burns is going to be lower owned by a substantial margin at all, then he's worth going over the field on because I think him and Wheeler are similar plays. I agree. You know, I think projections, depending on where you look, I think some places have it farther apart than others.

So, um, it'll be interesting to see how that turns out. Cause when I look at the slate from a $30,000 foot view, I think they should be similarly owned with wheeler slightly higher. And that's kind of how I lean. It'll play out, but you're making some good points. And if your points play out true, I want all the birds. Yeah, that's that's kind of how I see it as well.

And in large field stuff, I will definitely be I will definitely have more burns to Wheeler in kind of my MME sets, my twenty maxTwenty-MaxA twenty-max contest lets each user enter up to 20 lineups. It sits between small-field formats like three-max and the largest 150-entry tournaments.Plan all 20 lineups before building any of them. Decide your stacks and exposure limits first, so the set works as a portfolio rather than 20 separate guesses.Full explanation ↗ stuff, things like that, just because I do think it's it's going to be a pretty big delta overall after looking at it. I mean. Majority of the places I see, I'm seeing a point and a half to two points higher. Props are better on Wheeler, everything like that. And he's cheaper. Right.

So not that two hundred dollars is a big, big point, but that's the same argument that we have on our side. Right. You and I talk in two hundred dollars. It's easy to find two hundred dollars. Most people leave between. Four hundred and five hundred dollars anyways in the lineups, right? So that extra two hundred dollars doesn't matter that that much. And I think it's a good good buy low spot overall on birds.

I'm not saying birds is going to be unowned, but I do think there's, like I said, ten to fifteen percent delta of ownership there. And I mean, I'll take that on this given matchup any day of the week. Couple of cheaper guys that do want to throw out here, Matt. It's kind of drops off after Robbie Ray, right? It goes spend up pitching.

Messick up, and then it goes Robbie Ray as the mid-tier arm, because, I mean, Kevin Gossman's obviously there, but I'm not playing him. And then drops down to George Clawson, who has some upside. It's against your Guardians there. I'm interested to see what your take there is. Kumar Rocker showing signs of upside. He's also showing plenty of downside. He's going to be kind of the guy that people want to click on down here, besides Hosey, your quitty.

Your quitty, $5,500, gets a matchup against Texas at home here. He is going to be the guy that people go to to afford some different higher-priced offenses on the slate outside of the Twins. So teams that are playing probably the Cub stack, something like that, to get up to a PCA, to get up to a Hap, a Bregman, a Suzuki. A lot of those teams are probably going to have Jose Urquidy.

Again, like I said, majority of my teams are going to be two of these sped up arms, Messick and up. But in lineups, I do need salary. I have some interest in Urquidy just because I see all these guys pretty similar. I don't think he's going to be massively chalk or anything like that. So he'd probably be my first guy just because he's all the way down at $5,500.

I think Whisenhunt at $5,000 is a little interesting just because the Reds strike out so much. It's in San Fran. It's a good ballpark. He does have pitch count concerns, but he's $5,000. So I think he's kind of interesting. And then I think Zebby is a little interesting. It doesn't feel great playing a pitcher in Suter Health. It's just this current form of this Athletics roster. I think there's just strikeouts to be had in there.

Um, he he'd be kind of the guy I'm not messing with Merrill Kelly. I'm not messing with Kumar Rocker. Um, and George Clawson, I do think is a little interesting, but, um, I think there's not much separating him from the other guys and you're, it's a thousand dollar difference there. So, um, just get you on a different roster construction, but how do you see this value tier? That last point was everything for me.

I don't think Klassen crazy at all, but I think he's a similar play as Whisenhunt and he's fifteen hundred more. I mean, he's like twenty percent more. You get Whisenhunt in the better matchup and the better park. So why am I not just playing Whisenhunt? Now, I don't think Whisenhunt is good, but I don't think Klassen really good. He's coming off a really high upside start and you want to play off that. Wisenhut hasn't showed that. I get playing Klassen here.

You get a mediocre at best Cleveland team coming out of fours. That said, like Cleveland's healthy now. I think the matchup is better for Wiz and Hunt, like for sure against Cincinnati. So I'm with you there. Urquidy, I'm not a hot take. I'm on Texas tonight. I get the Urquidy love because he's coming off a good start and he's been good. His underlines are good, but it's not like he's a new arm. We know who he is.

And especially in ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, I'm off in there. I like Whisenhunt more at a lower owns, but I mean, I get it. Orchidi's been good and he's really cheap against the Texas team that has been cold. So yeah, I do think that there are some options down here. The biggest problem is the opportunity cost of not using one of the top arms. That said, the Twins are real expensive. The Cubs are expensive. So you might need one of these arms. Yeah, I agree.

I kind of see it the same. I do think, If you wanted to mess with the Little Rocker, he does have some strikeout upside. I'd actually rather play against him, like I said. Wisenhunt's probably my favorite, just going all the way down to the bottom, to be honest, because he's going to be much lower owned than your Quitty. It's a similar roster construction build. You're talking like fifty percent less ownership. I mean, your Quitty is going to be double the ownership.

Props are good on him. You look at the strikeout rate of this Texas team against right hand pitching over the last month, twenty seven percent K rate.

Um you're quitting coming off a good start he's $5,500 it allows you to spend up for the Twins the buxtons the those guys of the world they everything makes sense there um I look at them as the same play why not just give me the lower own guy um pitching in a better ballpark so that's kind of how I see it so I'll go wiz and hunt number one zebby number two your quitty three um but ideally like I said I want two of my two of the arms above um $9,500 that's just how I'm kind of seeing the the the pitching and I'll find some value value bats to make it work.

Maybe that means I have three man stack the Twins instead of full five man stack, or I play the back half of the Twins, the cheaper guys and play a different contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ full five man stack. Like you said, like the white socks or Texas or Cleveland, something like that, I think is interesting, but ideally pitching headline by the top couple value arms. I think we both kind of agree on wiz and hunt just because all these guys look similar.

Um I would rank them like I said wiz and hunt zebby I think is a great pivot off of your quitty um as well but uh any any additional takes no I like that call at the end you had to like zebby I don't want to play zebby but I feel like you can play if you just play a pitcher against a's on every slate you're probably going to come out ahead so why would this be any different in that regard really hard to click that name in this park but I get it Yeah, I mean, he's got a four and a half K prop, so it's not like it's crazy, right?

We've been streamlining pitchers against this team forever. I mean, you look at your quitty three and a half K prop, right? But everybody wants to play him and he's two hundred dollars more, right? So. Just little things like that and his leash is longer, right? So if Zebby, when Zebby has a ceiling, I think it's much higher than your Quitty. And that's kind of what I'm buying in. You're playing these guys for their ceiling outcome in a tournament.

Why wouldn't I play the guy that, in my opinion, has the higher ceiling? I know medium projection isn't good, but medium projections, when do you ever win a tournament with medium projections? I just don't think you do. Actually, I know you don't because you need the spike performances. I just think Zebby spikes a lot more than your Quitty in this kind of spot. And it's a better ballpark or not better ballpark, excuse me, but it's a better strikeout matchup overall, I think, when you look at it.

I think we touched pitching enough. Like I said, definitely headlined by the top tier overall. I think we see it very similar up there. Let's jump over and show the stone here. And we are going to start with the first game. And then we got a two-hour gap until the next game. So DraftKings helped us by not making it like a seven-hour main slate, but said, hey, here, we're going to throw the Chicago game on so everybody can watch this game.

And then we're going to put all the other games in the West Coast swing. First game on the docket, White Sox and the Rangers. Your Quitty, Kumar Rocker. I think the White Sox are super interesting here in tournaments. I know you're going to talk about the Rangers. I definitely get the reasoning for the Rangers. Your Quitty still gets hit hard from the right side, gives up a lot of power, and his strikeouts all come from the left side.

He's only going to see four lefties in here, one of them being Seager, who doesn't really strike out. Jock's been really good. Nimmo doesn't strike out a ton. I mean, I get the reasoning for it. It's not like your Quitty's an ace by any means. He doesn't rank well in our pitcher rankings. I actually like this game for offense on both sides here. So I'm glad you brought that up because I already had your Quitty ranked beneath the rest of the guys down there.

It's not the best hitting environment here in right field, but it is still seventy some degrees. Winds kind of not really a factor. Talk to me here. How do you see this one? Yeah, definitely a ballpark upgradeBallpark FactorsBallpark factors, also called park factors, measure how much a stadium raises or lowers scoring compared with an average park. Altitude, fence distances, foul territory and typical weather shape them, and some parks favor one side of the plate.Check whether a park factor is split by handedness. Some parks boost left-handed power while doing little for righties, and that split can change which hitters you stack.Full explanation ↗ for the Rangers, if nothing else. They play in a pretty pitcher-friendly environment in Texas there, in Arlington. So I just like the spot for Texas. Again, they got caught a little bit yesterday. They had been struggling.

How you get them on the road against a pitcher who I believe is pitching over his head, who's going to get ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. I don't think Texas gets much love at all. So it's just a combination of factors. Not that I think Texas stands out as by far the top stacker. I just think I like them substantially more than the field does. So that's important. And I'm also with you on the White Sox. I mean, Rocker is a guy we can pick on.

You take him out of Texas, get him on the road. We've liked the white. I mean, not just we. Everyone's like the White Sox against righties all year. You talk about tournament upside when the White Sox go off, they usually get home runs. So that's going to win slate. And there's a lot to like about them here. I'm totally with you. I think this game is very offensive minded. Yeah, rockers were bad against lefties.

The best hitters hit from the left side for Chicago. He allows power and fly balls to the left side. Texas bullpen is bottom ten in the league over the last two months. Everything checks out for me. Vargas has been murdering baseball, especially against righties. Even he's been doing it against righties, not just lefty left handed pitching. So you add him in there. I mean, I love this stack up and down.

This is one of my favorite offenses on the slate that I don't think gets ownership. I mean, it's going to be Twins far and ahead of everyone else. Probably double, two and a half times anyone else on this slate just because of the spot they're in for a good reason, right? Facing Jeffrey Springs, a fly ball guy in Suter Health, in hot and humid temperatures with the wind blowing out. I get it. But Murakami looks great.

Tristan Peters hit the walk-off bomb yesterday. He looks good. Benintendi, you got a Drew Romo, a cheap catcher in there. Who's a switch hitter. He's shown power at times. You got Colson Montgomery, the other Brady Montgomery and Antonacci who, yeah, haven't been that great over the last thirty days or so. But over the course of the season, they've been good. I love all the lefties here. Adam Vargas, the only guy I really don't love.

I don't even want to say it, but it's guy hitting in the seventh hole because last time G. Rison and I talked about him, he was the only one to do anything. But yeah, One through nine firmly in play for me on the Texas side. Kind of more as a leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ here, but I get the reasoning overall. I'd probably look at Langford and Duran the most just because those guys have shown a lot of power, especially even against righties.

Jack Peterson or Peterson would be the third guy I'd look at. And I definitely like the leverage that you'll get on people playing your quitty for the props, for the projections, for the matchup. Next spot on the slate, we are going to go to your Guardians, facing the Angeles, George Clausen on the mound here, Parker Messick. No Angeles outside of the psychos that just want to use the word leverage, right, and leverage the highest-owned pitcher on the slate.

I'd just much rather just not – not play him and pivot to a different spend up arm than stack against him in the Angeles and just say, hey, maybe Wheeler Burns combination wins over Messick, and Messick just has the middling performance. He's our number one ranked pitcher. He's everyone's number one rated pitcher. I'm off the Angeles. Yeah, you can always play Mike Trout if he's in the lineup. Obviously he's fine. Zach Netto, something like that, but Cleveland, I think is a little more interesting.

Um, Clawson still kind of unpredictable here. We still don't really know what we're getting. Not enough for me to put Cleveland kind of as one of my top stacks, but, uh, DeLauder, I think is interesting. Uh, Nate Lowe, who's been good for them. Um, I think he's interesting, but how do you see your squad here in Anaheim? Yeah, I think there's boom bust on both sides of this. Uh, Ham, our boy Ham would love this because this is a two, three pronger for me.

I mean, Messick obviously looks great. He's the best pitcher on the state, in my opinion, or the best pitching option. And then Colossus we talked about might be in play. If you're a little bit cheaper, I'd like him more, but he's definitely in play. But then the Cleveland stack against him. I don't think he's particularly good. His underlying numbers aren't really good. Cleveland's healthy.

Know adding joe adele has been a big boost to this lineup much prefer him against lefties but yeah I don't particularly want full stack Cleveland but I get the spot they're still in a nice ballpark for hitting smaller slate I think Cleveland looks pretty good here not elite but pretty good I wouldn't fall anyone for you know running a Cleveland stack in any type of contest single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗ large field anything Yeah, I probably more like it as like position eligibility things like a Janelle, something like that, a $3,100.

But Zana, nobody's going to click that name at $4,600 hitting in the back half there. Patrick Bailey showing some upside. You do have eighty degrees in Anaheim with some wind blowing out here. So it is a good place to hit. And like I said, it costs and still unproven. Angels bullpen has been better as of late, but it's still not a world beater by any means. So I do think the Cleveland side is kind of interesting.

I definitely have them behind the White Sox and some other teams on the slate, but offense is pretty minuscule overall and more people are going to play. Actually, I mean, if this projected ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ stays true, I just... I don't know if I can play Texas or play Cleveland into that kind of ownership when when we really don't have telltale sign. I don't know if I believe they're projected ownership there that we're showing on the screen.

I mean, maybe it is true because the dry run showing it's them Twins and A's. So maybe Cleveland is the first people go to outside of Suter Health. If that's the case, I'd rather play more on the Clawson side, but I get it. They're cheap. That allows you to spend up pitching, and I'm going to have a lot of spin-up arms on the slate, so I will have definitely some Cleveland to make that work.

I didn't want to talk about that for sure as well after looking at it. Next spot, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Merrill Kelly. Had some good start. Her was atrocious. Had some good starts. Back to being atrocious. You love lefties. Cubs scored at ninety seven runs yesterday. I know it's a soft subject for you. However, the lefties look really good here again against Merrill Kelly. PCA looks like the best plays in the slate.

His ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ is going to be held in check because we have set our health on this field or on this part or on the slate. Excuse me, Michael Bush, Ian Happ. You got Pedro Ramirez, who hit a salami yesterday. He's second base, third base. Which is like the weakest position on the slate. You've got a cheap Conforto in there. I think the Cubs are super interesting here on the slate, locked in for nine against Merrill Kelly, who can't get lefties out.

The lefties look really good, and then you've got some righties that you can throw into sacks as well. How do you see this one? Yeah. Man, there is a lot to like here from the Cubs' side. Definitely a tough – It's not for me after yesterday. Bad beat for me in the late slate. I was having a really good day until the Mariners decided to bring in a position during the eighth and the Cubs proceeded to score.

Nineteen runs, nine runs in the eighth or eleven runs in the eighth, ninth. So, yeah, Cubs kind of do what they do. And the thing about the Cubs is when they go off, like I mentioned with the White Sox, they had home runs, but also steal bases. So you get them in a really good spot against Merrill Cowley.

They're expensive, but on a small slate, if the Cubs hit multiple home runs here and steal multiple bases, it doesn't really matter what their price tags are. If you're going to need them, it's likely to be a slate won by Bass, even with the pitching tonight. So, yeah, I think the Cubs, right there with the Twins, the top stack on the board, And quite frankly, the Cubs are just a better offense than the Twins.

So I know that the Twins are in a better park, et cetera, but I think you can make the cake for the Cubs being number one overall. Arizona, I don't hate Arizona in tournaments against Gaussman, who's been shaky. When Gaussman has his best stuff, he's hard to hit, and, you know, More often than not, that's going to be the case. But when he's bad, he tends to be real bad. And I think you're going to get Arizona at really the ownership.

Insert me loving Arizona joke here. Yeah, I'm shocked that Belman's talking about the D-backs here. But I get it. I mean, Corbin Carroll, you can always play him, Vargas, Perdomo. I'd want the lefties, Newt Barr adding in there, Max Kepler. You got some cheap guys in there to afford Corbin Carroll. So I get it. Definitely understand it. But, yeah, I love the Cubs. The Cubs are my top overall stack. As a pivot off the Twins, I just the lefties are great.

You look at the bullpen yesterday, Arizona used seven bullpen or six bullpens arms. Excuse me yesterday. If Kelly gets slack, they might leave him out there to dry and you could see a position player going again for. For the D-backs late in that game if the Cubs jump on Kelly early, which they definitely could with that top of the lineup. So I love the Cubs. Lefties first, like I said. Lefties on the D-back side makes some sense. Don't have them high up my list.

I think Arenado, too, just because this guy feels like he hits a home run every other day. His price is climbing. $4,400 feels like a lot to play against Kevin Grossman for Arnauto. But I didn't want to mention him. Him and Moreno actually been the best two hitters, especially even against right handed pitching over the last month, even ahead of Corbin Carroll. So didn't want to mention those guys, but it'd be the lefties.

Corbin Carroll, I think my far by far and away my favorite as a spend up to be contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ at outfield. I mean, anytime you get Corbin Carroll at five percent on, I think that's an interesting play for sure. Next spot, Padres, Pirates. This ballpark sucks. Robbie Ray susceptible to right-handed power. Valdez, I think, is an interesting little one-off. And Flores, I think those two guys are pretty interesting. When they don't strike out, they typically hit a home run against left-handed pitching.

$4,100, $3,100. I think the price is right on those guys. Outside of that, I'm not stacking the Pirates. But I did want to call those two guys Padres side. Don't really want to full stack them. Ashcraft's a good enough pitcher. We just talked about his upside. Maybe it is definitely capped because Padres don't strike out and he's sandwiched between much better arms up in the top tier. So he's overpriced for the matchup. Why he's a good tournament arm.

I just don't think the bats are very good to play against him. But how do you see this one Padres and the Pirates? Honestly, honestly, I get your point about Ashcraft, but I feel like I can make the same exact call about San Diego against him. Like, yeah, you don't usually want bats against him, but you don't usually want pitchers against San Diego.

So, like, I feel like it's a spot where the field's not going to be on Ashcraft, the field's not going to be on San Diego. Both sides have upside. I mean, we've seen Ashcraft have some monster games. We've seen San Diego beat good pitching. They're another team. They run. They don't have a ton of power in this park, but... Tatis is on one right now, man. He is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He's in play on every state right now.

So I'm not playing San Diego here, but I think you could just flip the argument that you're making about Ashcraft right on the San Diego here. They both have upside. They'll both be low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. I'm not into Pittsburgh either. I'm not going to put Robbie Ray either though. If I'm going to with pitching for me, I'm either spend up or I'm going to spend down, not really going to get to the mid tier. Yeah, I agree.

I just think, I mean, Flores, like I said, and Valdez have shown power, especially against lefties. So those guys are pretty interesting as just contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ little two man stack. Hopefully they hit like a, like two and four or something like that in the lineup. I think that'd be interesting.

Um tatis has been red hot so I think he's interesting Jackson Merrill it would be my favorite play um that dude's been red hot Ashcraft does is more susceptible to lefties than righties um so that puts Merrill on top of the board Gavin Sheets is a cheap value if you needed to um but yeah definitely more of like a one-off two-man type type game than a full stack which is typically the case in San Diego when you add in Pirates made a bunch of bullpen arms as well at the trade deadline.

That goes forgotten. They did beef up their bullpen big time, and then obviously we know how good the Padres bullpen is as well. So two good bullpens on both sides or two solid bullpens on both sides and a shitty ballpark doesn't usually bode well for DFS stacking. Will be unowned, though, so you can always make that case. And at the end of the day, baseball and will be DFS. Anything goes. Just not a spot that we're really liking to put our money there.

However, this next game is where everyone wants to go for a good reason. This is going to be the highest on game on the slate. You're going to see a bunch of game stacksGame StackIn baseball, a game stack means rostering hitters from both offenses in one game, typically in a hitter-friendly park or against two weak starting pitchers.Target games where the spread is close as well as the total high. A high total with a lopsided spread can turn into a blowout where only one side keeps scoring.Full explanation ↗ here. It's ninety three degrees in Suter Health with fifteen mile an hour winds blowing straight out in the triple A ballpark where wind is almost as effective and beneficial as a Wrigley is. Talk to me here, Twins. They've been solid, but I've seen the Twins fail as chalk.

It feels like more times than any other team in the world. Jeffrey Springs, there is a solid talent in there somewhere. I still do believe it. Probably not the spot here that he figures it out. He's been absolutely atrocious over the last month. Just, I mean, you look at a six percent strikeout rate over the course of the season, set eighteen percent strikeout rate to fifty seven. I so loud tons of fly balls. This Twins lineup looks really, really good on paper.

They look like the top stack. They're going to be owned as such. Like I said, The fly ball guys are Brooksley, Lewis, Bell, Buxton and Kershaw. Those are the guys that who hit the ball in the air. Again, wind and stadium doesn't matter if you don't get the ball in the air for it to affect it. So I would look at the fly ball guys first that I just named. But how do you see this one? Twins and the A's.

We know both these teams have bad bullpens as well. Two of the worst bullpens in baseball here behind them. This should be a softball kickball game. How do you see it? Yeah, it's hard not to like the offenses here. I think the Twins are going to be mega chalk and that never feels good.

So I kind of like the more as many stats for one-offs because I think they had a few home runs or a couple home runs off of spring, but I don't know if I love the full stack into that ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. The A's, I really don't want to play the A's into ownership. Not going to lie.

Like the A's are a team I've liked a lot at lower ownership and they haven't come through that much, but yeah, They're going to be the second highest on team on this slate. And I probably just prefer to go elsewhere. I get it, though. I mean, Zippy is not good. You get this ballpark and the A's are cheap. So, you know, we saw it yesterday. We saw the epitome of the A's and pitchers against the A's yesterday. Christian Javier is not good.

Started off the game, went four innings, one hit, $8,000's. And he had twenty five tracking points after five, four or five innings. And you were like, you can't win without him because he was chalk. And then in the I can't remember, it was the fifth or sixth inning. Let the first two guys on three run homer and then let like the next four on and got taken out. And Javier and Debbie are like similar and that both aren't good.

They can both spike upside, though, and good matchups. Not going to be surprised at any outcome for Zebby and the A's here. I just personally don't really want to play the A's. It's high-owned. I feel better about the Twins, but they're going to be even higher-owned. So I'm probably just going to play pieces from this game and hope that it doesn't go all the way off, honestly.

Yeah, I like the Twins more as mini-stacks because the back half of the lineup still hits the ball on the ground and strikes out. That's what kills rallies. But Lewis, Royce Lewis, Josh Bell, I mean – Like I said, Kershaw, the guys who hit the ball in the air are the guys I'm looking at. So Brooksley, Lewis, Bell, Buxton, Kershaw would be the guys.

I probably prefer the Twins as more as like two or three-man stacks and getting to maybe a Cubs, a White Sox stack, even a Guardian stack, something like that to just differentiate the lineup a little bit because everyone's going to have the same teams. They're going to play this game. They're going to game stack it up. They're going to find out what's been up pitching fits. If they can fit two, they're going to click one in. If they can't, they're going to click your quitty in.

So that's kind of how the slate shakes up. I get it. Springs is terrible. Twins have some upside. But like you said, all the points you alluded to, I agree. You want lefties against Zebby if you're picking any of them. He does strike out lefties, but that's where he allows his power in his home run. So Larry Butler I think would be the guy to go to.

But I do prefer the Cleveland side to the A side, and I think they're both going to be similar owned. I'd just rather play the Cleveland side locked in for nine.

Um in Anaheim um then play a shitty Athletics lineup and do the same ownership so that that's kind of how I see it you do have guys like Cortes who's a big pinch hit risk as well Walton probably a pinch hit risk McNeil historically just doesn't have power he puts the ball in play so that can work but I mean a chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ Jeff McNeil feels pretty gross he might be one of the highest on bats on the slate because you can play him at second base and I mean people are looking at a $5,400 Cody Clemens or Jeff McNeil hitting second versus hitting seventh or sixth, right?

So did want to call it that. I think we see it pretty eye-to-eye. I'm going to be kind of on her. I really like Clemens in that stack. I like that call, and I was going to say that. I love Clemens, especially versus McNeil. Yeah, in twin stacks, Clemens will get love, but I think he's one of the lower owned because of his price tag and lefty-on-lefty, and you have McNeil right there. So I really like Clemens here.

Yeah, I mean, if I'm playing the Twins, I would almost prefer to have either Clemens or Brooks Lee in there. It's going to be the two lowest owned guys. Brooks Lee's a switch hitter. Yeah, he strikes out, but he at least hits the ball in the air. So does Clemens, right? And Springs, we're not, I mean, you're stacking the Twins because you expect Springs to be out of there, right? So a righty comes in. Clemens got a huge boost. Brooks Lee's got a nice boost.

So it just makes sense. I was going to say the same thing with Culpepper, but Culpepper being that cheap and he's still got the shining new toy narrative right with his pedigree for being a prospect in there. And he's he's $3,300. He's not the same case, but I do like your point with Clemens and Brooks Lee.

I think you're going to see a lot of twin stacks, five-man twin stack, who leave Clemens out and play Jeff McNeil on the other side and make it a six stack from the game. I think that's just how you're going to see it. So second base is going to be pretty much majority ownership is going to be soaked up with Jeff McNeil. So that's why a guy like Janal, some of these other guys we talked about, I think makes some sense.

Next spot, Mariners, Phillips, Zach Wheeler, Logan Gilbert, two of the best arms on the slate. Won't be shocked to see a Schwab or a Harper or something like that. I mean, nobody's going to play this game for a good reason. The ballpark sucks. Both these pitchers are two of the best arms on the slate. How do you see this one for offense? Doesn't look very, very promising. I agree. And I don't want to stack either team here.

I'm not playing a lot of lineups, but I think Phillips got to be at least a little bit in play. I mean, they just have really good lefties. Gilbert is good. And I'm a Gilbert fan, but he's not like the most consistent ace either. Like when he has his best stuff, he has his best stuff tonight. You probably want him in DFS because he's going to strike out a ton of guys and Philly won't hit him.

But if he doesn't, even in this park, couldn't you see, you know, a couple of Phillips hitting home runs here. And I kind of view them as like a really contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ pivot off the Cubs because the Phillips are expensive. So it's hard to get to them over the Cubs or the Twins, but yeah, I think there's home run equity. Maybe you don't full stack them, but maybe use a Schwarber who hit a walk-off yesterday, Harper.

Like, I think there's some hidden upside in Philly. They'll be really low. So that's my only case there. Seattle, I'm good. Yeah, Seattle's got a really good bullpen, so I prefer it more as kind of like a Harper-Schwarber or like a Harper-Schwarber-Marsh, something like that, those lefty power. I'll throw Stott in there just because of the position, right? Just being Stott's – well, I mean, he's at third base, but – I think he's interesting at $3,900 two because he'll run as well.

So like a stop Marsh, Schwarber, Harper, some of those lefty power, but mainly Schwarber and Harper. Nobody's going to click them. And they I mean, I don't care where they you think Tyler Schwarber cares what fucking ballpark he's hitting in. I mean, if he hits a home run, it's going to be out of damn near any ballpark anyway. Same thing with Bryce Harper. Right. So those guys, I don't worry too much about the ballpark. So I definitely get the reason.

I prefer kind of just contrarian little two-man upside guys that differentiate, right? Maybe you play a twin stack and you leave out Buxton and you put in a Bryce Harper, right? Something like that. Or you leave off Josh Belle, Royce Lewis, and you spend up to Tyler Schwarber at first base and punt off a different position, right?

Something like that is interesting to me, and that's – you're playing the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ that everybody else played, but you played it in a different way without getting crazy. Right. Finding a, finding a seven hole hitter who's $3,400 that hits two home runs. Right. Like, yeah, sure. If you have them, that's great. But it's more likely that just building the team a little differently than what everyone else is doing. Like leaving Jeff McNeil out of a twin stack. Right.

Because second base or playing spending $3,000 more for Cody Clemens, like we talked about little things like that is definitely an interesting way to go. And I know we're talking about ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ a lot, but it is a seven-game slate. Ownership condenses, and especially on a slate like this where we know where everyone's going, it's more important to talk about, I think, especially when you're chasing top prizes, right, because the drop-off is pretty severe in these contests.

Last game on the slate, Reds, Giants, Wiz and Hunt, Chase Burns, two pitchers we talked about. I'm not stacking any Giants. I mean, Devers, if you wanted to mess with him, I'd play him at third base. $4,100. Sure. You can play him. Burns, really good arm. I just know no interest in the Giants. I just this lineup's atrocious. I know they're dirt cheap. I know they're free. The Reds bullpen is not good. So, yeah, you always have that.

If Chase Burns doesn't have it, you could see the Giants get there and then all the hundred fifty matches are going to win. So kudos to them. I won't be on it. Red side, I think, would be more of the interest. The Reds tend to go off when nobody's on them. Sal Stewart, I think, looks like one of the better plays on the slate. Play him at second base and flip the bill completely. Jeff McNeil is where everyone's going to play.

Sal Stewart, where nobody's going to play at second base. $5,200. I mean, that dude can hit it out of anywhere as well. So I think he's interesting, but I don't really love the rest of this Reds lineup overall as a stack.

Ellie sure you can always play him but Sal Stewart Stevenson Suarez those kind of three guys would be my preferred if going here at all how do you see this last game on the slate so another three pronger for me for sure because Burns we like he's expensive but we like him the Giants I'm not playing the Giants against Burns but both the Reds and Whisenhunt because Whisenhunt is not good, but he's only $5,000 and the Reds are not a good offense and they strike out a lot.

So you can play Wisdom leader in this ballpark and also get the Reds with a massive, massive ballpark downgradeBallpark FactorsBallpark factors, also called park factors, measure how much a stadium raises or lowers scoring compared with an average park. Altitude, fence distances, foul territory and typical weather shape them, and some parks favor one side of the plate.Check whether a park factor is split by handedness. Some parks boost left-handed power while doing little for righties, and that split can change which hitters you stack.Full explanation ↗ for offense. That said, the Reds are generally better against lefties and Whisenhunt isn't good. So kind of like the A's against Zebby and Zebby himself, like, The Reds run a little bit. You mentioned the top of their lineup. Sal Stewart, Ellis, Dane Myers likely hitting third. He runs. Eugenio Suarez, Matt McClain. I think you can stack the Reds here. I really do.

You could also fit them in with good pitching because outside of Ellis and Sal Stewart, they're all cheap. So... Yeah, I think the Reds are in play here. I mean, I'm likely playing a little whiz and hunt, but I don't feel good about it. And the Reds, I probably won't get there in limited lineups, but I'm not going to be shocked if they win this slate in this matchup.

Yeah, I mean, you look at the Giants bullpen, sixty six pitches, forty six pitches, forty one pitches, thirty three pitches. All four of those guys through yesterday that I just named, and that's their pitches in the last three days. And then it drops down to thirty pitches, twenty six pitches, twenty two pitches, twenty one pitches. We know it's not a good bullpen. It's extremely taxed. They're relying on Whisenhunt to go out there and eat one. That's why you can play him, right?

And he's $5,000. But Whisenhunt typically doesn't go long. He gets behind hitters. He I mean, this if this goes south, this could turn into a Reds winning the slate in a shitty ballpark. It just is what it is because everybody's going to play Whisenhunt. The Twins and the A's, if they're not playing the Twins and the A's, they're going to go to Cleveland is the next stop. Maybe a little Cubs, but Cubs are more expensive. So where do people go?

Like they're going to Cleveland for the salary saving. I think the Reds make some sense. McLean hits lefties good. Dane Myers hits lefties. He's a pinch hit risk. Sal Stewart obviously murders lefties. Stevenson Suarez, historically lefty mashers. So I get the reasoning for sure. And I don't hate it either in large field stuff. The Reds are probably my fourth team, I would say, somewhere in there. I mean, I love the Cubs like I talked about. I love the White Sox. Guardians are interesting.

And then I probably have the Reds kind of in that same tier as – Probably as a full stack, higher than that Suter Health game, just because I prefer that game as more ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ salary differences and playing that as like a two- or three-man stack, something like that, to get a little different. So Reds probably falling behind those other three teams, as crazy as that seems on this slate. Matt, end of the show.

Your top two pitchers, your top three stacks in a home run call. All right, pitchers, we are going to go with, I'll be pretty chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ with pitchers. I'll go Messick, we'll go Wheeler, and we'll go Burns. So three of the top guys, I like all of them. Obviously, you could throw Gilbert in there too, but he's left out of mind. Stacks, we will go with, man, there's some good ones tonight. Talk about the Rangers is number one for me. Then we'll go with the Twins.

Then we'll go with the Guardians, who I like your shot out there. There's other good ones we talked about, the Reds, et cetera. My home run call, I'm going to go right to the Rangers. Give me Corey Seager going yard tonight. All right. I like it. Corey Seager hitting on bomb for our guy Belman. My pitchers, I'm going to Messick, number one. Surprise, surprise. I would go Chase Burns, number two. And then...

Wheeler third, but to say a different guy than Wheeler, I'll say Zebby Matthews as a pivot off of Whisenhunt and your Quitty both. Leverages some of that A's chalk. I think when he spikes a performance, I think it's an upside play that can win you a tournament on a slate like this at $5,700. So I will take Zebby as my third arm on the slate.

Top stack on the slate for me is going to be the Cubs White Sox number two. And then. Third, I will put the Guardians as well with you there. Obviously, Suter Health is the stack of the night for both sides, but I prefer it more as kind of just mini stacks in that game. For my home run call, I'm going to go to the White Sox. I'm not going to go to a lefty. I'm going to go to a righty.

I'm going to go to Miguel Vargas all the way up to the top. $5,400 at third base feels expensive. Dudes, a raker lefty righty doesn't matter. He hits for power hitting in the heart of that lineup. I think Miguel Vargas gets one for us here tonight. Belman, it's been a pleasure breaking it down. I think we broke it down well. Again, six forty central time is the lock time. For that White Sox Texas stack or game.

And then you got two hours until the last half the game. So if you're playing, if you're playing in the Texas bats go nuclear, the White Sox bats go nuclear. Make sure you relate swap your teams and get a little different that way and just let the pieces that you have on the slate help you play the rest of it, right? You have the ownership from that game. You can rerun your teams, things like that.

But make sure you are around to set your teams because I think it is a pretty interesting one, especially from the offensive side of things. And your quitty obviously is going to be a big talk and play as well. So if your quitty is getting lit up, probably want to pivot off the Twins, right? Something like that. So little stuff like that. But Belman, any closing thoughts from you? No, always a good time, man.

Let's get this one on Monday night tonight. Let's do it. For Belman, I'm Nades. Good luck tonight in those contests. Hope to see those Ship It Nation logos at the top. I'll be back tomorrow. We're out of here. Peace.