MLB DFS Process | DraftKings & FanDuel Picks, Plays & Slate Breakdown | Friday, 09/25/26

So Jose Soriano, which I gets the coveted great matchup against Cincinnati here all the way up to school ball. Talk about any of these guys that you're interested in, in terms of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, it's going to be school ball as the highest on starting pitcher on the slate. A lot of that has to do with Yamamoto just through ninety pitches and Uh, what's who's the other one for the Dodgers? They both just went glass now. Yeah.

Glass now and Yamamoto both got to about ninety pitches. So you have to assume school ball is going to have probably about a ninety pitch leash somewhere somewhere in there. At the end of the day, we don't really know. Right. As the Dodgers lost last night and the Brewers locked up the best overall score. Record in baseball and the home field advantage throughout the playoffs. So that was pretty sick to see there.

So who knows what happens here, but school ball is a gamer at the end of the day. I think school ball is going to be out there for roughly six innings or so. You look at, he's got the best strikeout prop on the slate. You look at his outs prop as well. His outs prop is sitting at seventeen and a half. So they do the books and everything do expect Scooball to kind of get his full allotment if they allow it.

Eleven K is the real deciding factor. Gavin Williams, your boy here. Not sure how long they're going to let him go, but you have to really assume that majority of these spend up arms on the slate should have a decent enough leash overall. But talk about this entire pitching range. Scooball is the chalkChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗. Gavin Williams is kind of the second highest owned guy. And then it's a toss up between Burke and some of these other cheaper guys down below.

But those really are the two guys that headline the slate in terms of Scooball and Gavin Williams. Yeah, I think this range is where we want to get the majority of our pitching exposure from. You know, there's one cheaper guy, a couple of cheaper guys, I guess you can look at. But for me, Gavin Williams. SP one here. Scooble is awesome. We know that. I love the matchup against San Francis. But the Guardians are playing for that two seed.

Gavin Williams wasn't even in Bolton last night when they clinched. They flew him out early to Kansas City to get him well-rested for this game. I think he's got supreme length here. If he's giving them what he normally does, he could go nine. I mean, he's their dog. They're fighting for that two seed, which is just monstrous. I mean... They might have a massive decision on Sunday with Parker Messick because they throw him on Sunday and they end up losing and don't win the division.

Then they're going to lose him in the first round of the playoffs. But for now, I think they're going to do everything they can to get that two seed, and I'm all in on Gavin here. I like Skubo, as I mentioned. I don't think you get the length. From Scoogle that you do out of Gavin Williams, but I like the matchup better. Obviously, it's Gray Park, so I think he's fine. I have Gavin slightly higher for me at that price point.

I like deGrom. I like Detmers. I think both those guys are fine options. The next guy that I think I'm going to lean on, though, is Sean Burke. Gets that cozy matchup at home against the Rockies. Same spot as Cleveland. They need wins. They're going to rely on their best arms. And Burke has been really good for them, especially at home. Great matchup, probably the best matchup on the slate. So I'm in on Burke at $8,500. I think Soriano is fine.

Looks to me kind of like Burke, but I have a little bit more confidence in Burke. Joe Ryan, Hurter Brown, tougher for me to get to. I mean, there's a lot of good pitchers on this slate for me. I think it's mostly Gavin Scooble, Burke, deGrom and Detmers are the guys I'm going to lean on. How about you? Yeah. Um, Gavin's my SP one as well. I do agree there. Cleveland, um, wants to win games.

We don't, there, there's a lot more unknowns with school ball and the Dodgers there. Cause they're locked into the two spot in the NL there. Um, so for me, that does edge it and the salary discount you have. And, um, at least right now projections rise, um, you get an ownership discount as well. So I do like Gavin, uh, a lot here. Um, school, I think is good as well. Um, I do think Detmers is pretty interesting here as well.

Six and a half K prop, six and a half out prop, which is better than deGrom actually. So I do prefer Detmers to deGrom. I think deGrom is fine as well. Projection ownership would also indicate Detmers over deGrom there, but I just like that matchup out in Seattle. Playing pitchers in Seattle there. Detmer is a lefty outside of J-Rod and really a Rosarena Cal Raleigh. If you can navigate those three, I think there's a lot of strikeouts in that lineup there.

So I do like him. I think Hurter Brown is super interesting here. Nobody's going to click Hurter Brown because of the West Sacramento. I mean, this is a great strikeout matchup. He's unownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ on a eleven game slate at $8,900. We're playing almost eleven K for this guy. I know His numbers and he struggled here and there, but I still like this matchup. I think Hurter Brown in tournaments is a super sneaky, super interesting play overall to me.

So I really like Hurter Brown and then Sean Burke. I agree with you as well. So for me, this top tier is kind of Gavin Williams, Hurter Brown, Burke, Detmers, and then Scooble. That's kind of how I rank it just because of the salary on Scooble. I love that Hurter Brown call because he fits in line with the Burke and Gavin calls as well. Like they need wins. They're playing for their playoff lives. So I'm in, man.

He's found his, like he's pitching the best he's pitched all season right now too. And the matchup, like if this game were in Houston, he would be chalk. So I love that call. Good call there. Yeah, I mean, you're going to get Hurter Brown at five percent ownership on an eleven game slate with massive upside. I mean, five and a half K props, seventeen and a half out prop. I mean, I get it. It's the A's at Sacramento.

It's the best hitting conditions on the slate. It's just I'm a bet. I always take good pitching over over hitting any day. Pitchers can always win out and I'm a believer in Hurter Brown right now. He's kind of found his groove like you alluded to. So he's my overall favorite starting pitcher play on the slate when you can consider potential upside and ownership.

Um and the salary right so I do like him a ton um not really messing with these other guys I think Joe Ryan is a pivot if you wanted to get there I don't really want to mess with it Twins have nothing to play for there um he is pitching in one of the best uh pitchers parks in baseball and globe life there um but or not global he's at home excuse me but I don't know I mean who knows maybe Twins let him go um he's kind of their guy it might be the last time you see Joe Ryan in a Twins uniform so maybe they let him go at home here um at $9,700.

I don't love it. But again, Gavin Williams is the same price, and so is deGrom. So in tournaments, I think you could get there. Ideally, my lineups are going to be two of these guys above $1,000, though. I definitely want to spend up on pitching here. There's offense, and you can punt off a bat and afford spend up pitching. Then to really mess with these cheaper starting pitchers, I think there is a couple of guys down here that you can mess with.

But I would much rather just play two of these guys up in the top tier. We didn't even mention guys like Yuri Perez, who has shown upside at times. Jose Soriano with that matchup against Cincinnati at home, Toronto there. So I think there's a lot of guys you can play. I kind of keyed in on those main five there. But again, I'll probably filter some of these other guys in my MME set overall. Cheaper tier here, Matt.

It is below $8,000. I mean, Bryce Miller stands out projections wise. $7,500 gets the match against the Angeles. I'm not a Bryce Miller guy. I don't really like this dude, especially in the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. I would much rather just play another arm up in that $8,000 range personally myself. But I think he's viable overall. I think he's decent play. Robert Gasser, I think it's kind of a sneaky leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ type guy. I don't know how long they're good. Brewers are going to let him go.

But I mean, you have to assume in the playoffs, Gasser is not going to be one of the main arms anyways in the rotation. So this could be a spot where they're kind of just let Gasser go and then convert him into like a bulk inning guy in the playoffs out of necessity. Or if things go south in one of these series or things like that. And the Brewers have a first round buy, right? So there's extended time.

He's going to get full rest and be ready to go when it comes time to play. In what, about six days, eight days, something like that. October third, right, I think is the first game at home. So Gasser, I think, is a little interesting just because he's shown upside and he's $7,200 on the slate. Outside of that, I really don't like any of these other value guys. Like I said, I'm prioritizing spending off that pitcher. Don't really want to mess with these guys.

And especially with Bryce Miller getting that kind of ownership, twenty to thirty percent, something like that. I'd rather just be under underweight on that and just go up or just play Robert Gasser for three hundred dollars less is kind of how I see it. But how do you see this large here? I see it exactly like you do. It's Bryce Miller and Gasser for me down here. And I'm with you.

I kind of feel like if if he's pitching well, there's no reason why Milwaukee will pull him. They probably don't even want to use their good bullpen arms here. So, yeah, it's Gasser for me. I think I like Gasser more than the Bryce Miller just because of the ownership. I don't feel comfortable playing Bryce Miller into high ownership in any park and any matchup right now. So I get it. Like he's too cheap for his strikeout upside.

And depending on how many lineups you play, you probably want to have a little bit, but I just don't feel good about it when we've got pitchers that I do feel really good about. That's kind of basically what it boils down to for me. I like the ownership pivot to Gasser just because I like his stuff. I like the matchup, and I think he's got good length here. But ultimately, I'm with you. I want to spend up on pitching tonight.

I think Gasser would be the guy to include. I'm not going to even probably include Bryce Miller. From a props perspective, Bryce Miller has a six and a half K prop, but it's minus one fifty on the under there. You look at Robert Gasser, his K prop is sitting at four and a half with minus one fifty on the over. Right. So you kind of meet in the middle outs prop.

Gasser is right in line with Bryce Miller and I mean, he's three percent owned instead of twenty five to thirty percent. So on a slate like that, I just much rather take a lot less risk at a pitcher. And that's kind of kind of how I see it. Right. Seattle doesn't really have anything going for them. I mean, I know it's the Angeles, but still ideally six pitchers in my my main pool I'm looking at. Williams, Skubal, Detmers, Brown, Burke, and Gasser would be the main six.

I think the other guys up there in the top, deGrom, Joe Ryan, are kind of interested in Skubal as well. But yeah, that's kind of how I see it. How do you see it overall? I see it exactly as the same as you do.

And my thing about Skubal is just looking at the guys we like, I'd much rather play like gavin and Hunter Brown and scooble and Gasser you know what I mean even though I like Gasser I don't like scooble more enough more than I don't even know if I don't like him more than gavin but even the other guys like so it's the same pool for me if I'm making one lineup it's gavin and then one of the other guys yep we see it uh we're in lockstep feels good to be lockstep with my god Belman as we round out the season here Well, with so many pitchers in play, I mean, there's a lot of guys we didn't even talk about that are good pitchers overall.

I mean, most of these guys are kind of in their one or twos in the rotation, at least top three for sure. We're not getting back half arms here on this Friday to round out the year. So now when we jump over and talk hitting here, it's not going to be a lot of spots where we really like overall. I mean, that look great on paper. First game is Jose Soriano. It is Nick Lodolo, the Blue Jays and the Reds.

This is a game that I do have some interest in here. I think the Blue Jays are a little interesting overall. Lodolo I don't think is very good. The Reds bullpen we know is not good. The Reds are just dead, obviously. I think Okamoto looks pretty good. Springer, Vlad. I mean, you got a cheap Charles leading off at $2,800. I mean, this team is pretty cheap. It allows you to spend up at pitching, which we want to prioritize. The ownership's held in check.

They're super low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. I think the Blue Jays are pretty interesting overall. It's kind of a lower-owned stack that not many are going to go to, especially if you're going like a Gavin Williams with one of those other guys that are getting a decent amount of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ in terms of pitcher. I think the Blue Jays make some sense here, but how do you see this game, Reds and Toronto? I'm with you. I think the Blue Jays make sense as like a contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ stack.

If you're playing one lineup, really hard to get to anything from this game, except for maybe Soriano. I mean, if you like him more than I guess we do, but ultimately, like, Last Friday night of the season, if I'm playing one team, I can't go down with the Blue Jays. I get it. They're in a good spot against Lodolo, and I'm playing a few lineups, so maybe I play a little bit of them.

There's just teams that have more to play for that I like more. So I think it's a decent, sneaky call, but not one I'm uber excited about, to be honest. And then Cincinnati, no thanks. Yep, I see it. I tend to agree. I think you could play guys like Carlos Jorge batting off Carlos George or a $2,500 batting hit and lead off. I mean, they could. They're just I mean, this kid's decent one. I mean, they got super cheap guys.

Hector Rodriguez has been really good. So Soriano has shown blow ups. I don't really want to pick on a ground ball guy like Soriano on the slate, but we have seen Soriano give up slate winning performances throughout the year. And it's hard to predict them, but that's why, I mean, on a slate like this, I don't think it's the worst play. I do like this game too, a lot more games on the slate, but much prefer the Blue Jays side.

It's still not an overall top play on the slate by any means though. Next spot, Marlins, Braves, Grant Holmes, Uri Perez. Perez, big strikeout guy, can get wild. Braves make some sense here, I think. The top of the lineup, you can always play them. This park sucks. That's the issue. I just hate playing hitters in Miami. Baldwin, Acuña, Olson, Harris, those three, or four, excuse me, look really good. You got some cheap guys in the back half, like Yastrzemski, Ozzie Albies has got a decent price point.

So the Braves do have some guys. Don't love them overall in retrospect to some of the other teams on the slate, but how do you see this one? This is interesting to me because I think that to the point you made a couple minutes ago, there are a lot of good pitchers on this slate. So there aren't a ton of good stacks. I think that like of the stacks that definitely look better, like there are certainly stacks that definitely look better on this slate.

Houston, the White Sox, which we'll get to, but of like the mid-tier stacks on this slate, kind of like Toronto, I think both these teams belong there. Yeah. Uri has been very hit or miss over the past couple months. Even at home, he's had some bad starts. The Braves offense was pretty good yesterday. We know they've got talent. That would be the case for playing them. I can't imagine they get much ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ in this park. And then Miami against, who's it gonna be?

Ray Kerr and then maybe Holmes. I'm not super excited about it, but they're cheap. We like expensive pitching. I don't think it's crazy to play either team from this game, and mostly because, yeah, we don't love the park, but there's a lot of good pitching on this slate, and it's cooler weather all over the country. So there aren't really many outside of Sacramento amazing hitting spots. Yeah, I agree. That's that's when the parks.

I mean, we're end of September baseball here, right? Whether it's not the it's not July where the Midwest and the East Coast is a hundred and ten degrees, right? Like it's just not in and it's hot and humid. We don't have Coors Field, so the more I look at it, I do think the Braves are kind of.

Interesting in that in that tier that is kind of jumbled of like six to eight teams probably I would say um I would not be shocked to see the Braves put up a kind of slate winning performance at some five percent ownership um so the more I look at it just when I Take kind of a lens back on the slate as a whole.

Yeah, the park sucks, but like you said, right, the weather's trash pretty much everywhere outside of one spot, and that one spot's going to have so much ownership that I don't know if I even really want to play it when there's twenty-one other teams on the slate that you can play, right? And the Braves fit that bill, too. I do think the Braves are pretty interesting overall. Grant Holmes isn't the best pitcher either. Marlins are dead, but I mean, these kids still can ball.

Conine looks decent. Marcy, some of these lefties, you want lefties. Joe Mack, I think is a decent one-off catcher as a value play, especially when we want to spend up at pitcher. If you need some salary, punting off a catcher position with a guy like Joe Mack at $2,600 has power. Grant Holmes more susceptible to some lefties there. So I don't hate it, but much prefer the Braves overall. Um, on the spot.

Next one here, we have your Guardians heading into Kauffman stadium to take on Noah Cameron and that atrocious Royals bullpen. I'll throw it to you right away. I'll let you break this one down and talk about your squad here. I think they're definitely interesting overall, because this is one of the teams that is, uh, is going to be gunning, right? They need to win. They want to win. They want to get that, uh, they want to get that division. So, uh, how do you see this one?

I love Cleveland here, man. They clinched yesterday, so I think the pressure's off. They still want that two seed. I know they got into KC really late last night, partied a little bit, celebrated as they should. I think, if anything, that could affect them tomorrow, not tonight. I think they're playing off vibes here, and I really like them in this spot. I don't think they get ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. I think that you've seen this recently, too, with the White Sox yesterday.

Cleveland struggled against some good pitchers in Bolton, but against mediocre pitching, the White Sox just got to the Royals. I think we see the same thing from Cleveland here. I like them. I want to see what their lineup looks like. I don't think it's going to be weird because that two-seat is so important. It's not even that I think Cameron is a gas can, and I don't like them as much against lefties, but J-Ram's gotten better recently. He's running still no matter what.

Obviously, Adell big against lefties in this lineup. I'm in on Cleveland here, man. How about you? Yeah, I think they're interesting. I think Angel Martinez is really good. He's a switch hitter, too, so pinch hit free. He does strike out a decent amount, but Cameron been susceptible to righty power, and he's a fly ball pitcher anyways. I know the weather sucks. It's about six degrees here in Kauffman, but that's really everywhere outside of Sacramento, like we keep saying.

Every spot in this slate sucks outside of one spot, right? So... I think Martinez, Adell, De Lauer is even decent, lefty-lefty. He's not the worst. You got a super guy in Rokio as well, I think. That's pretty interesting at shortstop. And then you can wrap it around to the top. So Cleveland does have dudes you can play here. And, yeah, I think they fit that script. I'd probably prefer the Braves and some other teams that we're going to talk about.

But they're right there in kind of that fifth, sixth range, something like that overall overall. No Royals interest for me against Gavin Williams. I know you get the leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ there, but Royals are dead. I mean, even if Gavin's kind of scuffling a little bit, I mean, Cleveland's just going to pull him, I think, overall and go to that bullpen, and then you're playing lefty, righty, platoons-type stuff, and you don't really know what's going on with the Royals. But, I mean, they have a ton of power against righties.

So, I mean, Jensen, Caglianone, Vinny P, you could do it, but much prefer the Guardians overall to the Royals. Next spot. I do like this spot quite a bit here. White Sox and the Rockies. Talk about a bad pitcher. Sugano is miserable. He's absolutely atrocious. Everyone knows that. I saw people talking about the White Sox lineup. Oh, I thought I thought Andrew Martinez says the White Sox lineup looks awful. I was like, I love this lineup overall.

White Sox, I'm riding right back to the well with the White Sox. I mean, they're going to get on, but it's not even going to be anywhere near what Houston's going to get on in Sacramento. White Sox want to win. These dudes are ballers overall. They're super cheap. Sign me up. They're my top overall stack on the slate against Sugano and this Rockies bullpen. One through nine, all great plays. Tristan Peters, my dude.

You got the Montgomery down at the back, wrap it around to the top. Absolutely love this. Murakami at four eights, a criminal price point on him, especially when he's starting to kind of round into form heading into the postseason here. How do you see this one? Giddy up. I'm all aboard, too. It's just like Cleveland, man, in an even better spot because Cleveland I love because of the vibes.

They're facing a mediocre pitcher in a decent park, but the White Sox have the same vibes and they face Sugano and the Colorado bullpen. So I'm in on the White Sox here for sure. I'm a little bit worried about ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. Cause I think they're like the clear place to go outside of Houston, but Houston is going to get a lot of love and they eat up a lot of positions and a lot of price tags.

So really outside of the Astros, I'm not overly concerned with ownership. And the White Sox just look great to me here. I think you can play them as full five-mans, three-mans, four-mans. They got a ton of upside here. They're rolling right now. They need wins. I think you see the best they have to offer here. Yeah, I do want to talk about the Rockies here.

Sean Burke, I know he's been good in the beginning, but if you look at Sean Burke lately, he's been brutal. I mean, twenty percent strikeout rate, nineteen percent walk rate. In a hundred and one plate appearances, I mean, Kerrig, McCarthy, these guys, the issue with the Rockies is they're expensive, but Rumfield is affordable. Kerrig's price has come down. Moniac's price has come down now that they left Coors.

And Burke, I think is going to probably be right up there next to Gavin in terms of ownership, right around that same range. So if I'm picking one of the chalkier arms to leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ against, it would definitely be Sean Burke overall. The White Sox bullpen is not very good in general. So I do think the Rockies on a slate where everyone's going to kind of go to the same spots. I think the Rockies have upside here, just a stone dead team in general.

And they've been that way pretty much the entire season. They've actually, they have some power and some upside against right-handed pitching for sure. So I don't think they're the worst plays in the world. And as a sneaky stack on this kind of slate, I do think they're pretty interesting just as a bet on, hey, Burke, maybe he's not right. Maybe there's something going on underneath the hood that we don't know.

But if you look at Burke's last thirty day numbers over the last month here, it's it's pretty brutal in general. So any any thoughts on the on the Rockies? I'm with you. I like Burke because the matchup, et cetera, everything we talked about. But the Rockies real good for me yesterday in the afternoon slate. If Burke's going to get ownership, I'm totally with you. I feel like if you're going to pick on a popular pitcher, it's either him or Bryce Miller, right?

And I think you can make the same cases for the Mariners or for the Angeles, excuse me, as for the Rockies here. Both bad offenses that have been out of it forever, both with upside on the base pass and with power. So I'm with you here. Like I'm going to play a little Burke, but I'm certainly not going to play a hundred percent Burke. And in any non Burke lineups, I think the Rockies are a real interesting way to get different.

If you're playing popular stacks like Houston. I mean, so the dry run right now, projections wise, obviously it's going to change. We don't have a ton of lineups in, but what we do have in an average of us and SaberSim projection, I get ninety seven percent school ball, thirty nine percent Burke with Cleveland and Houston. That's kind of what the projections spit out. White Sox are under all these other teams are under Cleveland.

I think it's because of the price points and they need to win right. Full nine at bats and that bullpen has a lot to do with it behind Cameron as well. So if Cameron does get if the Royals do pull him early because obviously he's he's a pivotal piece to kind of their future as well.

So if they pull him early I mean that bullpen is absolutely atrocious so I think that's why along with their price points but that's what projections say um I don't know if I fully believe Cleveland's going to be that but that's kind of what it what it shakes up and it's usually pretty pretty accurate in terms of that and Cleveland is very heavy in terms of the five-man stacks because what does it do it allows you to get up to a school ball and then it allows you to play a burke who's projected for right around twenty points at $8,500 right so the more I look at it, I think the Rockies are kind of coming more and more into my portfolio here.

The more I see it on a slate like this, that just feels so cut and dry that the writing is on the wall, what everyone else is going to do. I think playing against that. And it's not like there's not, it's not like there's a shortage of starting pitchers on the slate. I mean, Burke is four hundred dollars less than Hurter Brown. Give me Hurter Brown. Give me even shit. Give me Jose Soriano for five hundred dollars. I get that.

I'm a fight back on the Cleveland ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, though. I don't see it. Maybe Jose Ramirez, but there's no way they're coming in higher on than Houston as a stack. The White Sox against Sugano, the Brewers against McGreevy, the Dodgers, who we haven't talked about, against Marte. I can't see it. Again, you might have pieces, Adell, who's cheap, J-Ram at a weak third base. I just can't see it as a full five, man. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

Yeah, no, it's definitely I mean, it's probably going to flatten out some, but they're definitely going to because of the price points. I mean, thirty six, thirty four, thirty three, twenty nine, twenty five, twenty five, $4,000, $4,100 J-Rams, $5,100. That's the only guy over $4,100 on the whole lineup, on the whole stack. And it allows you to get up to a school ball with a massive projection. So that's that's the reason.

Now, I don't know if that's going to be the case, but I do expect them to kind of be right there next to – I think Cleveland picks up more ownership than even the White Sox. As crazy as that is. No way. Just why projections – No chance. I mean, I could be wrong. We'll see. But that's what it says right now in terms of that. So we'll see. Nonetheless, though, I do think the Rockies are pretty interesting the more we look at it here.

Next spot, Brewers, Cardinals, McGreevy on the mound. We love lefties against this guy, Brewers. Nothing to play for outside of just continuing to push for a better record. Got a hundred wins yesterday. Do they go for even more against their division rival here? One of them, I think Mitchell looks good, Turang, Bowers, Yelich, all these guys. I mean, I think the Brewers are one of those teams that could – be the highest, the team you need on this kind of slate, right?

Especially if Houston doesn't go nuts, right? They don't hit a lot of home runs, but it doesn't matter. They still steal bases. They score runs. They got to get their bats going because last year, right, they couldn't hit at all. So I think this is a pretty damn good spot overall for the Brewers' bats in general against the Cardinals' trash bullpen. McGreevy's very bad, in my opinion. How do you see this game, though? Totally with you. McGreevy stinks.

I wonder what the Brewers lineup is going to look like today. But even if it's weaker, that means it's cheaper with no pinch hit risk. So intrigued no matter what, right? Because if they run their full lineup, you got good hitters in there that are probably going to be low ownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ because they're expensive and people aren't going out of their way to stack them. Or you'll have a weaker lineup that's cheaper and doesn't have pinch hit risk. I'm intrigued for sure.

I want to see what that lineup looks like. Is it out? I'm just looking right now. I don't see it out yet. But I would expect majority. I mean, you might see like a Chourio or a yellow, one of those guys get a day off, something like that. Contreras maybe, but I mean, whoever's in there, I mean, Laura's going to probably be in there. He's a young kid. Mitchell should be in there.

You might see Frelick coming in this order in this lineup as well against McGreevy. So we'll see what the what the lineup looks like. But I'm seeing low ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ on a team that could be the highest that could be the best DFS offense on the slate. And it won't shock anyone. Right. So I do like the Brewers quite a bit here. Shocker, I know. But it's, again, everything's up against Houston.

And if Houston goes out there and hits two home runs and scores five runs, I mean, well, everybody just is holding hands at the bottom of the leaderboards then, and you're looking for these other teams to kind of leapfrog them. So Brewers are definitely in that boat for sure. Next spot, Twins, Rangers, deGrom, Joe Ryan, two of the better arms on the slate. No bats for me in this one, but do you see anything here?

Nah, I mean, Ryan is volatile for a really good pitcher. Like, you look no farther than that start against Cleveland earlier in the year where he gave up like seven home runs. But outside of that outlier stuff, like, nah, I'm good. These two guys are good arms. And even if I don't use them, I don't want to pick on them. Yep, I agree. Next spot, D-backs, Padres, Casey Mize. Talking about a guy who has not been good. It's Mize. D-backs, I think, are they dead now?

Are they done? No, they're not. Okay, yeah, they have to, what, sweep the Padres here? I think it's because of the Cubs, too, though. Like, I got to pull it up. I don't know exactly, but yeah, I think they have to win out and hope for some other things. So they're not mathematically dead, but likely dead. Yeah, likely dead. Nonetheless, they're going to still be playing because there is an outside chance they can get in. Casey Mize has been absolutely horrendous.

I know the Padres bullpen is really good, but well I guess let me let me see what the Padres bullpen usage because the Padres are still playing for stuff too right it's not the Cubs it's the Phillies also that the Diamondbacks could catch uh Phillies have a two-game lead on the Diamondbacks right now that'd be crazy if Philly fell out yeah I mean that could that that'd be wild obviously the Brewers took what two two two or three of those three of those games in that last series against them so And now all of a sudden you have an Arizona team that's playing for their lives against a San Diego team that already clinched.

Yeah, and here's the thing. I mean, you could see, are the Padres locked into their spot? Yeah, I think so. So I don't think they're playing for anything. So here's the thing that makes me like Arizona a ton then. Look at this Padres bullpen usage because of what they – the last two days, what they wanted to do to clinch. I mean, Maton Miller threw back-to-back days. Matsui threw back-to-back days. Bradley Rodriguez threw thirty-seven pitches on Wednesday. Morjan threw back-to-back days.

I mean, they could leave Casey Mize out there just to drive because this game doesn't mean anything to them. They're definitely going to want to give those arms a rest in that bullpen. I think Arizona is super, super interesting here on this slate. Nobody's going to play him. I know the ballpark sucks, but the ballpark means less when there's no good spots on the entire slate. I mean, talk to me. Are you with me?

The D-backs are kind of speaking to me here at no ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. I know we don't like picking on San Diego, but the more you see at San Diego can't really do anything. D-backs have an outside shot. The bullpen's taxed. Mize has been atrocious. How do you see it here? You're talking about crazy low ownership, and people aren't playing Arizona here coming out of cores with the other teams.

We've talked about Houston especially, and you might see the really, really watered-down version of the Padres here. Really weak lineup, Mize, who hasn't been great, and then their worst bullpen arms. That's intriguing, man. That kind of goes into what I talked about at the beginning of the show. Pay attention to who's on the slate. What you're playing, what other people aren't playing that might kind of slip through the cracks. This looks like one of those spots.

They remind me of the Marlins or Braves because of the ballpark, but with probably half the ownership of even those teams. It's not like those teams are going to be popular, but Arizona is just not going to be played here. Yeah, I mean, I guess they're still playing for home field in the wild card, if that really means anything, which maybe. Okay, so it's them and the Cubs. Okay. Yeah, but, I mean, still, nonetheless, I mean, Miller throwing back-to-back.

Their best arms in that bullpen have thrown back-to-back days. They're not pitching today. Like, no matter what, they might be still trying to win, but they're not playing those guys today. Yeah, but they still – I mean, they still have – they still have two games in the series, right, over the weekend as well, so – Yeah, I still like I still like Arizona quite a bit here. I mean, you got cheap price points on all these guys. Marte, forty six. Lars Newbar at $3,100.

Pavin Smith has a lot of power, but he's a pinch hit risk. But who knows what the Padres are going to do? Like I said, with that bullpen, Corbin Carroll, Sanchez. I mean, I think the D-backs are really interesting overall. Let's talk about it. Let's talk about Sacramento here. Houston Athletics, Jacob Lopez on the mound, which obviously pitches a lefty. You love the Astros against left-handed pitching because their entire lineup outside of one or two guys typically is a righty, right?

And Jordan, one of the best lefty lefty hitters in the game. Anyways, Astros on paper look incredible. Highest run total on the slate, highest ownership by a decent margin.

I mean, think this comes up quite a bit here um when who knows though projections wise because their prices are I mean you have to think about it right forty one $4,000 forty five forty seven sixty five fifty two I mean outside of playing the at the back like a spencer something like that I mean talk to me here how do you see this game best hitting conditions by far by a mile on the slate I don't like the A side.

I think Connor Brown is one of the best plays overall on the slate. So I don't love the A's, but same thing, right? They got the same conditions as well. How do you see this one? They do have the same conditions. And I think that they're a contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ stack against a real good pitcher, but I'm with you on the points you made about Brown earlier. And I'm more on team Brown than I am on the A's.

As far as Houston goes, I think Lopez is better than the field does, but he's not in great form right now. And I, This is kind of the worst spot he could ask for right like this park is awful for him and then you get a really right handed lineup in Houston. I remember they faced off last year at least once in this park and he got destroyed.

And I think you're taking a big risk by fading themFadeTo fade a player is to leave him out of your lineups on purpose, usually because you expect him to be popular or you think he is a poor play.Fade with a reason, not a feeling. If you can't say why a popular player will disappoint, you're probably just giving away points.Full explanation ↗ because they've got a lot of upside here. I also think that playing them in mini stacks makes sense and just hoping, like you talked about, maybe they score five runs and only hit two home runs. It's unlikely they get shut out here. But are they going to be the top stack as much as ownership is going to say they should be? And I don't know about that. I think ownership gets pretty crazy here.

And I am personally more interested in playing them as... Mini stacks pieces because there's other offenses I really like that are just going to be lower owned. And yeah, it's a tough fade, but it gets me excited about teams we talked about earlier that are going to be lower owned. Yeah.

I mean, at these, at these prices too, if those spin up arms do their thing, I mean, you're probably the, the mini stack is probably going to be the way, even if Houston goes out there and scores eight to ten runs. I mean, who, there's nothing saying that they're, they're going to be on the winner. Right.

So I, I do think I'd much prefer Houston as kind of just position fillers than a full five-man stack because the guys you want a full five-man do get pretty pricey, and then you're kind of sacrificing pitching, which I don't really want to do when there's so many other offenses on the slate and other offenses that are still playing for stuff as well, right? It's not like Houston's the only team playing for something here. So I know the park, all of that.

It's just I get it. But, I mean, their run total isn't that much higher. I mean, they're sitting at right around five, five-and-a-half, Dodgers are right there. White Sox are right there. Milwaukee's not far behind Cleveland, Atlanta aren't far behind. So, I mean, all five of those teams are significantly lower owned, um, maybe Cleveland a little bit just because their salaries, but I don't know if I really believe that as well.

So, I mean, you're talking five other teams that are right there in line with them. Um, at much lower ownership. So that's the only thing. Can't really say much more outside of ownership on Houston. They do look like the best. You look at Jacob Lopez against righties, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . This is just a miserable matchup for him. He's gotten hit hard by righties all season long. Velasquez is super cheap. He's a pinch hit risk, so be worried on him.

It's either a home run or a strikeout with this guy, but I do think he's playable. Paredes would be my favorite guy overall in this lineup if he does crack it. I actually like kind of the Paredes, Yiner Diaz, something like that, and Cam Smith. So I like that kind of three, five, seven, something like that, depending on where those guys shake out, is kind of my three favorite guys overall of the Astros. Last two games to talk about Angeles, Mariners, Bryce Miller.

Probably the consensus SP two value punt pitcher that everyone's going to go to in the matchup here because of the props, because of his projection, the matchup against the Angeles, which we know bleed strikeouts. Reid Detmers on the other side. Don't love the Mariners here, but Jayrod, I think you can always play against the lefty. Outside of that, I don't really love it. Randy Rosarena, Cal Raleigh, but those guys are forty four, forty nine and fifty four.

I don't really want to be spending on though. I don't want to be spending that kind of salary to pick on a good pitcher. So I don't love it. Angels would be my preferred side, but I still don't love playing the Angels who just don't have a ton of power. In St. Louis or in Seattle, I know you get the leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗, but it's not like Miller is going to be forty percent out.

I mean, the dude's going to be maybe twenty percent, twenty to twenty five max. So seventy five percent of the field is not playing them. So I don't think there's enough there. I don't love this game for offense. I'm with you. I don't like this game at all. After thinking about it a little bit, I actually would prefer the Rockies over the Angeles.

I think they're similar enough where you could obviously interchange them, but because of the ballpark, give me the Rockies in that scenario, and I'm out on this game for offense because the Mariners are one of the worst stacks on the slate. Facing a good pitcher, they're expensive, and the pitcher they're facing isn't even going to be popular, so I don't see it. Yeah, I agree. Seattle's bullpen is good too. So that even downgrades the Angels even more.

Um, it's basically the same kind of spot on paper. Rockies have more power against, uh, their opposing hand in this picture and it's a worse bullpen or a better bullpen to target for DFS perspective from the Rockies. Um, White Sox bullpens worse than, than, than Seattle. So last game on slate though, Giants Dodgers, uh, Dodgers look really good here. Um, ownership is not going to really be there. Um, which is crazy to say.

I know we'll see what kind of lineup the Dodgers roll out here. I'd be shocked if Otani is in there. Um, who knows? Maybe he is. Um, but how do you see the Dodgers? Dodgers do look really good. If you can afford them, they are expensive. Um, I'm not playing the Dodgers over pitching personally is kind of how I see it.

So Dodgers kind of fit in the, the, that mini stack, like two and three man, um, Kind of stacks or maybe I go to like a Gavin Williams and a Gasser and play the Dodgers instead of playing the Astros. Right. Something like that is where my Dodgers exposure is going to come from. Look really good. Not facing a good pitcher. A really bad bullpen. Giants are just stone dead. The ballpark sucks. But again, everywhere outside of Sacramento sucks. So it's all retrospect.

It's all relative to the slate. I mean, you're not going to go out there and see a massive home run record in terms of the home runs hit tonight. So how do you see it? Yeah, I mean, this is a tough fade because the Dodgers are so good and Marte is not good. But in this ballpark at these price tags, it just helped for me to prioritize the Dodgers here.

They destroyed Marte in his last start that you needed the Dodgers as a stack that night. I know I didn't play them that night either, and it burned me. But tonight in San Francis now, they're so expensive, like you mentioned. I could see playing them in mini stacks or one-offs. Marte is not good.

So the Dodgers will score runs here, but they're going to have to do a lot to be the winning team on this slate with the pitching and their price tags in this park. So I'm a probably not play the Dodgers. If I'm playing one lineup, I'm not playing them in limited lineups. I'll probably have some exposure as far as one-offs and mini stacks and that's it. And then completely out on the Giants. I mean, If you're stacking the Giants tonight, good luck.

Yeah, no, I agree. Dodgers do look better for, like I said, two- and three-man stacks because I'm not going to sacrifice my spend on pitching just to play a five-man Dodger stack.

So if I can make it work with, like I said, maybe two of those guys in that $1,000 range, which there's a bunch of them, with upside that we like, like a Hurter Brown, Gavin Williams, if I can make it work with those and play maybe the back half of the Dodgers lineup, the cheaper guys, I think that's the way I'll prioritize it there. Got a question in the chat talking about the Cleveland lineup. It's exactly what I saw as projected.

So Kwon, J-Ram, De Lauer, Adell, Angel Martinez, Davis Frye, Bozzano, Hedges, and Rocchio. I want this dog, man. Yeah, I mean, it's their projected lineup. It's their best lineup that they can roll out at this time against left-handed pitching. And I'm in. I mean, there is pinch hit risk with guys like Davis Fry. He's probably the main guy, I would say, right? He's the main guy. I would only play Fry in a stack, personally.

I mean, he's awful, and he's going to get pinch hit for it. But maybe he comes up with the bases loaded in his first hit pad or something. So in a stack, I would – maybe have a little bit of exposure, but yeah, pinch hit risk is real for him. Other than that, I don't think it's prevalent at all. Yeah. I mean, really, let me, let me just look one, one thing here, Cleveland. Let me just look at these pinch hit percentages here real quick.

One second. I think, I mean, he's the biggest guy really. Um, Yeah, because they got lefties in there. All their main lefties are there. Yeah, I mean, Hedges maybe a little bit, but I don't think they're really going to bring in Patrick Bailey off the bench. Yeah, that's just because Hedges stinks anyway. So, like, you're only playing him in a stack. You know what I mean? Right. Yeah, yeah.

It's really Hedges and Fry are the only two guys that even have kind of a remote chance. So, stack only for those guys. Don't want to play them in a one-off. But, yeah, I think we broke it down pretty good here, Matt. Let's go to the end of the show. Your top three pitchers. Your top three stacks, and a home run call if you have one. I'll do the same, and we'll close out the season strong here. All right, top three pitchers.

We will go with Gavin. Oh, man. We'll go with – I like the Rockies call, but I still like Burke. And we're going to leave Scooble off. We're going to go Hurter Brown. I love that call. I love the matchup. Houston's still fighting. He's their best option right now, so I think they're going to let him go here. Used the pen last night, so I'm in on Hurter Brown as my third pitcher. Stacks, let's go with White Sox, Cleveland, Houston. Those are my top three.

And then home run, I'm feeling it. I know he hasn't done it much in the second half of the season. J-Ram going yard here. J-Ram, wow. All righty, let's do it. For me, I'm going Gavin, Hurter Brown, and then I will go read Detmers. Those kind of three guys I like a lot. Soriano I think is interesting as well, and then Gasser are kind of the main guys that are all going to be contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ really outside of Gavin Williams.

And he's even not going to get a ton of ownership because people just want to prioritize Tariq school ball, which I get it. He's got a twenty five projection right around. I mean, in between twenty four and twenty five points. There's cheap bats to make it work like Cleveland, like some of the other spots we talked about.

I just I'm a little bit worried on him, especially with the injury concerns that he had right when he came back and Dodgers are going to need him in the playoffs big time. So little worried would not be shocked if he's the highest scoring guy, but at eleven K you kind of gotta sacrifice some spots, at least some stacking spots to get to him. So I'm looking at a little bit cheaper guys overall. My top stacks, I'm going White Sox, number one.

I will go Brewers, number two. I think the Brewers are super interesting here. And then I will... Throw in the Rockies, an unownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ Rockies team and an unowned D-backs team. Those are kind of my two unowned squads that I like quite a bit more than the field. Obviously, Houston is the best overall spot on the slate, but I am a little worried about them. I prefer them more as mini stacks. And then my home run call, let me – let's see.

I'll go to my top overall stack on the slate. I'll go to the White Sox, and I will go to – Man, we got to do it. We got to do it. This guy's treated me well all season long. Actually, you know what, Matt? I'm going to go. Murakami feels like cheating. I'm going to do it. I feel like that's your guy today. Murakami? Yeah. You started the show by saying how stupid cheap he was.

And I kind of, yeah, I got, I'm going to do it. I'm going to do it. You did J Ram. I'll go Murakami. I'll throw an ancillary one in there. Tristan Peters. I mean, I love this dude. He, he never gets played. He's $3,300 outfield. So if you can't make Murakami work, you're, you're afraid of fading Christian Walker or something like that at first base. Give me Tristan Peters, $3,300 at the outfield as well. So love the White Sox.

I expect them to hopefully hit a home run or two or three or four. Um, and yeah, hopefully, uh, hopefully we find our way to the top of the leaderboards here. I know I'm in a bunch of satellites as well here tonight, chasing some five, five, five milli tickets for, uh, NFL main slate, but Belman, any closing remarks to close up the season here, um, before we get out of here? No, man, fun season, fun show.

Like I said earlier, it's bittersweet, but mostly better because I love MLB. I love doing these shows, but, uh, Yeah, we'll get on some NFL stuff soon, and I'll get to see your pretty face soon enough. Yeah, absolutely, man. It's been a pleasure. We appreciate everyone tuning in in the chat. Checkmate, Michael, Andrew Martinez, everyone throughout the whole season. Obviously, not a lot of people still playing MLB DFS at September. But there's still money to be made. Contests are still really good.

Playoff baseball is one of my favorites as well. I love playoff baseball. The staggered starts is great. There's a lot more game theory. There's more pinch hit and stuff like that. But really, I mean, you know, the guys are going to be there. The main team, the teams roll with the main guys pretty much every time. So it's more predictable. I think there's different ways to attack it, right?

We'll talk about that in the Discord and stuff, but Appreciate everyone tuning in all season long. Can't thank you guys enough. This is why we do these free shows here. Subscribe if you haven't already to this channel. We do have a ton of free NFL shows. NHL is right around the corner as well. I'll be doing some shows for the bigger slates throughout the year there. MMA is still going on. PGA is right around the corner again, which is crazy. And yeah.

That's going to do it. So hit that like button. Hit that subscribe button on the way out. It's been a hell of a season. Thanks so much. We'll be back hopefully next year. But you'll see me and Belman very soon on some NFL shows together for sure. For Belman, I'm Nades. Good luck tonight in those contests. Close the season out strong. Let's get it. We're out of here. Peace.