MLB DFS Process | DraftKings & FanDuel Picks, Plays & Slate Breakdown | Friday, 09/11/26

They went into the fish tank and said, you know what? I don't care about the fish tank. We're going to score fifteen runs one night. Christopher Morrell. We're going to go $2,000 twenty two and just start hitting bombs again. Take it on the Yankees. Carlos Rodon. Southpaw. Good. Pretty good pitching matchup, Matt. Interested to hear your takes here. Nolan McClain taking on Carlos Rodon and this Yankees team. Pretty good pitcher matchup. It's the red bandana game. If you know, you know.

Oh, man. Yeah. One love. I forgot to mention that. Yeah. Yeah. Should be an exciting one here. Two good pitchers, as you mentioned. McClain is about as solid as it gets without being like a true top end elite ace. Rodon, we know he's been inconsistent, but when he's on his game, he has really good stuff coming off a good start. This spot, honestly, with twelve games, I don't like a ton here. I don't really want to pick on the Yankees and McLean.

McLean's too expensive. McLean also isn't a pitcher I really want to stack against. So both sides of that I'm not too interested in. I think Rodon himself is okay, but he's too pricey, and there's other better options in my opinion. So if I'm making one lineup, I'm not playing him, and I'm also not stacking the Mets against him. The Mets have been good. You mentioned they've shown upside. They're not as healthy as they've been.

You know, Luis Robert addition by subtraction, if you want to say. I think any slate they're in play, especially their top dogs, is mini-stacks or one-offs. But on this particular one, again, if I'm playing one lineup, there's no way I'm getting to anything there against Rodon. So for me, this is more of a cross-out spot than anything, knowing that whenever you have a really good Yankees lineup, they can always go off. Same with McClain. Yeah.

You could look at this as all sides of it are in play. I'm kind of choosing to look at it as none of the sides are in play. That makes sense. Yeah, it makes complete sense. And if, uh, If my God Nades is still there, he knows about notable lefty master Mark Vientos, batting cleanup. I love me some Mark Vientos one-off, Matt. I don't know if you like him. You didn't mention him, so I'll take it you don't, which is fine.

But I really like Vientos tonight against the lefty, batting cleanup. Should get at minimum three ABs. He normally stays in there when the righty comes in, too. But, yeah, give me some Vientos one-off tonight. Excellent breakdown, though, on everything else around the pitching. And the bats. And, yeah, you mentioned it, man. I didn't even think about it when I was saying it. But no better night than tonight for this game to be played between these two squads.

Takes it back to, you know, Bush throwing that ball out opening game. And Dan Brees chills just thinking about it. But, anyway, heading on to the next game. Orioles headed to north of the border. Take on our Canadian friends, the Toronto Blue Jays, Chris Bassitt-Hound. Take it on Mad Max. Last time, Max Scherzer. Pissed in Toronto. All he did was get ten Ks against that Mariners. Had one start in between there. But talk to me a little bit about this game.

Orioles against – I'll call it revitalized Max Scherzer team. Man, that Mariners lineup. I like them tonight because there's a lot to like. But they can strike out with the best of them. You talked about Scherzer just carving them. DeGrom yesterday. I mean – Got a dub, though. Yeah, yeah. They did get the dub, which all that matters. Yeah, good call. Okay, so this game, I don't like the pitching here. I think both offenses are in play, but I don't love them.

There's just a lot of good offenses on this slate. I don't really, again, I'm not going to use Scherzer or Bassitt. They're both cheap enough where I don't think they're the worst plays in the world with expensive bats on this slate. The stacks, I feel like you'd think they look better than they do, and maybe I'm lower than the field is. I don't love the stacks is the best I can describe it. Neither offense excites me at all.

The Blue Jays are coming off a series out of Sacramento where they were awful. The Orioles, two series ago, they were awful in core. So both these teams can stink it up. We know both these teams have upside on any given day, but... I don't think I'm going to try to see it with my money here. How about you? Yeah, I like that take. Yeah, I mean, the Blue Jays let us down.

You know, now going back home, former Blue Jay great Chris Bassitt on the mound taking on his former team. Didn't he used to play for the Blue Jays back in the day? Yeah, so I don't buy that revenge narrative. But, yeah, I don't love either offense here. Listen, if you want to pick on Mad Max and pick on the – I think he's like four years old, forty-one, you can. But he's been very good.

I know two starts ago, and I think he was decent his last start as well. So, yeah, I'm out on the offenses here as a whole. Say what's up, some more people in the chat. Juice Man, the Juice Man's in here. How you doing? Marie's in the house as well. Appreciate all of you tuning in each and every Friday. It's game day, Matt. Looking forward to that for sure.

All right, next game up on the slate, we got the Royals taking on the Bo Sox. Got Sonny Gray. Where's Sonny Gray from, Matt? Taking on Seth Lugo and this Royals team. Talk to me about this team. Two confirmed lineups out. Royals at the Red Sox. I believe he's from Nashville. Anchor down. Yeah, somewhere around there. Okay, so yeah, this is all Bolton for me. I mean, KC has sneaky upside in this park if Gray is way off. But other than that, I'm not interested.

I think Gray himself is not an awful play. Probably a little bit too expensive for what I want to spend on this slate for him with other guys, a little bit more than I like better. But if you don't have the money for sailor Snell, I could see playing gray here. And then the Bolton stack kind of be in play, man. Like I had a really good day, two starts to go against Lugo with Cleveland. He wasn't good. His last start.

And this is a bad spot for him. He gets crushed by everyone. Boston stack wildly in play here by far, my favorite stack of all of these teams we've talked about so far. How do you see it? Yeah. I was hoping you'd be a little higher on Sonny Gray. I love Sonny Gray tonight. I mean, he was nails his last time out. I think he's had three, you know, three plus performances out of his last six.

Now he gets this Royals team that hasn't been very good. Is Jack Cag still out? Yeah. Jack Cag is still out. I mean, obviously you got to navigate through Bobby Witt. Um, But man, John Rave, Nick Loftin, Tyler Isbell, and Isaac Collins. I'm taking my chances with Sonny Gray. Yeah, I get that. And Michael Massey for that matter. Okay. Maybe I'm higher on gray than I should have been, or maybe I should have been. I mean, I, maybe I'm hot. Excuse me.

I should be higher on gray than I portrayed. So good call. With that being said though, I mean, we hadn't even gotten to Chris Sale and Blake snail yet. I mean, two guys, we're going to have tons of interest in not even your best friend, Parker Messick.

So, I mean, gray is going to come in what's super low on probably like, uh, twelve percent on DK I bet you comes in what closer to twenty I don't think so oh you think so you think it's lower than twenty yeah sorry go ahead oh I didn't say yeah uh lower than twenty percent I think definitely lower than twenty yeah yeah okay Excellent stuff there. Next game up on the slate, got the Astros headed into the trop to take on Drew Rasmussen.

Never stacking the trop. That's an old trick I learned in DFS school back in the day, but maybe you see something I don't. Ethan Pecko, not a very good pitcher, Matt. You can see that in the sharp blood red that you see down there. Any love here for the Astros, the Rays, or either one of these pitchers?

Yeah, I think that I don't love them because of this park, but Peko is bad enough and the Rays are good enough where you can stack them here. Problem is they're super pricey, so you're paying for it. They've won big slates in this park, though, so not going to be surprised if they win this one. Will I, you know, plant my flag on them on DK? Unlikely, but I'm not going to be surprised if they do a lot of damage tonight.

Peko's not good, so... Anytime you can pick on a guy like that at low ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, it's worth it. Go ahead. What? Give me – so you don't love him, but you – so who would you be playing outside of the obvious, Junior Caminero? He's $6,400, super expensive. Are there any other bats in particular on the raise that you say, yeah, I could play him? No, but – The guys that you're talking about that you would play as like one officer mini stacks are uber expensive.

So the other guys help cheapen it out, if nothing else, at the bottom of the lineup. And if I'm full stacking them, I'll take that low ownership and cheap price tags. You know what I mean? Like, yeah, no one's going to play those guys. Like, so I don't know. Go ahead. I mean, Ritchie Palacios, he's terrible, but he, for what, for however, he does have a little bit of power. I know what you're arguing that he gets the brain.

If he comes up with two guys on, you know, twice, you know what I'm saying? Yeah. So like, that's, that's why you stack. Yeah. He still stinks, but like. He can go yard though, in the eight hole that no one's going to pay. Cedric Mullins, I don't like paying $4,200 for him, but I mean, and he steals bases. So I don't mind. I don't mind Cedric Mullins either. Like if you're stacking them.

Yeah, and I feel like on a lot of teams, and this is something I'm trying to get better with on slates like this, you maybe don't want to stack, like, the bottom of the lineup. With the Rays, it makes sense to mix in a couple of the guys, though, because the top of the lineup is so expensive. So, yeah, I mean, I don't love the Rays stack here. And a big part of that is because they're really pricey.

But I also think they're in a pretty good spot and aren't going to get any ownership. So that's enticing in tournaments. If I were playing one-fifty, I'd want to be over the field. I put it like that. Gotcha. Good stuff. Next game up on the slate, the pitcher we just alluded to, Blake Snell, his Los Angeles Dodgers headed into Miami to take on Mr. Gusto, Ryan Gusto, and this Marlins team. Interested to get your take on this.

Dodgers, Shohei doesn't look like he's slated to be back. I know Dave Roberts said he's coming back, but can't remember exactly when. But Dodgers, fourteen runs the other night. Tommy Edmond, three FanDuel points. Good job, Tommy. But talk to me about this game. Dodgers taking on the Marlins. Yeah, Shohei got put on the IL, so he's not going back. Yeah, I know after all that. This one's interesting.

Like the Dodgers, it's hard to want to stack in this park on a slate like this with other good spots in much better environments. But man, like I could definitely see the Dodgers breaking this slate, couldn't you? I want to say no if they can't put up a slate. Go ahead. Yeah. I think you're right. You like the Dodgers a little bit more than me, and I want to say they can't have a slate-breaking performance without Shohei.

But they put up fourteen runs, and they obviously can. They got some very good dudes. Who was it? Kiki, our boy, our resident Ship It Nation boy over here. Kiki went off the other night. So I think – I mean, I just hate the bottom of that lineup, and at those prices, actually, looking at those prices on the projected lineup, they're actually not that bad with no Shohei in there. I don't love them. I'll say that.

It would be Freeman, Max Muncy, and Edmund would kind of be where I would go. I don't love them either, but, I mean... Those are good prices, right? Yeah, they are good price tags. And I definitely disagree, even besides the last game, that they can break a slate without Shohei. I mean, just look at this lineup. No, they definitely can. It's just a mental thing in my head. They obviously can't. I just feel like they can't, but they certainly can.

And they did the other night was my point. They scored fourteen. Yeah, but to the other point, like Tucker had a monster game. He's generally been awful this year. It's a bad park. I don't think they're like unknown either. I don't think they're popular, but yeah, I'm a little bit torn on the Dodgers. They're probably the only team I'm like really torn on, on this slate. All right. What about the, we didn't talk pitching or the Marlins offense. Do you like either one of those?

Yeah. The Marlins not in play for me. Snell looks like he's right there with sale. I think I prefer, I don't know who I prefer between snow and sale. Snell is, a little bit cheaper. I like the matchup a little bit more for Snell, a lot more for Snell, but I certainly trust sale more. I think I like smell a little bit more here. It's really tough though. Cause Philly, you know, you get an ace lefty against them in this lineup.

Like, you know, clearly their best hitters are lefties. And then the bottom, that lineup isn't good. I think selling snail boat look really, really good here. Clearly I'm going back and forth. I don't have a strong preference between them. They're the clear like one and one eight pitchers on this slate. And you're only not playing them because they're Uber expensive and or ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. All right. Well, we're going there. So let me just ask you off the top. Wait, I got to rephrase that also.

It's not even that they're Uber expensive. It's that bats have been priced up. Like you look at Seattle in, in Sacramento, they're expensive here. So it's, you can make it work with some cheap stacks. And in that regard, I think they're the two clear best pitchers on the slate and they're fairly priced. So are you saying like, would you ever go sail and snail and not play like the, the, the Mariners or the expensive stack? Yeah, certainly.

Like, I'm not saying I will do that tonight, but I think that's definitely a viable route. Yeah. The Mariners as chalk are hard to get on board with. Honestly. Yeah. I mean, I'm a Braves homer, but I'm taking sale. Snell just has, like, I'm going to say walk issues. I think he's had two-plus walks in his last four starts. Like, he throws enough pitches. Like, he'll throw ninety to a hundred pitches. But he's not getting past the six.

I mean, so on FanDuel or DraftKings, like, I mean, obviously you want to get to the six on FanDuel, but not that you need him to get into the seventh or the eighth, but I think he's more likely to run into trouble. Just my take. Look at that game log, though. I mean, honestly, I hate to be a game log watcher, but man, he is.

He has one performance under twenty-five since he's come back, and it was twenty-two and a half in course. He was still dealing, yeah. Like, honestly, Sale just hasn't been that good. Did he like – well, he's like a complete game shutout. He moved the Dodgers. I mean, he had that one massive start. But other than that, he hasn't been as consistent as Snell. That's true. But I'm with you still. Like, I still feel better about Sale. And, yeah, I'd love to play them both.

And I think that's definitely – There's no – I don't think there's a wrong answer, right? Like, I think you're splitting hairs, and, you know, hopefully you pick the one that has the better performance if you're only picking one. But, yeah, more to come, obviously, as we keep going. But next game, we're going to just dive right into the Phillips game. Phillies, Braves, Aaron Nola, Chris Sale, as alluded to earlier, this game is not on the FanDuel main slate.

Not one hundred percent sure as to why, but the Phillips have a sub-three run total, and that's kind of hard to believe after they put up you know, runs in droves against the Astros this week, during the week. But interested to get your take on this. Phillies taking on the Braves. And as I alluded to earlier, this is the last chance for the Phillips to even remotely catch the Braves. I think they can. I think it's an outside chance. I'll check the standings while you talk.

Go ahead. Yeah, I think they can too. I think they're just a couple games out. So that makes sense. Yeah, I mean, Sale is an elite pitcher. I'm never looking to play hitters against him. He's expensive. Not even that he's uber expensive. It's just there's expensive bats I like. So with Snell, I don't think you have to play Sale, but I would love to play him. If I'm playing one lineup, I want to play him.

I don't have to play him, but I want to. I also think the Braves are sneaky here. Nola's been good recently, but the Braves, we know their offense is – you know, really good. They're a little bit cold right now. So their ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ is going to be low and their price tags aren't crazy high. So I like Atlanta. They just, Nola's last start was against Atlanta. I always lean hitters in those spots. Same with Sale, by the way. Okay. Yeah, certainly. No, thanks for mentioning that.

Yeah, I think Atlanta's sneaky here. Yeah. You also stacked the Braves against Tyler Glass now, so the Braves, you're going to like the Braves regardless. Yeah, I mean, I like their offense. Yeah, they got some good weapons. I think it's four games. I think the Braves are up four games left with probably, what, three weeks left, so hopefully the Braves can win.

Well, even if they win two or three, they're only five up in – Yeah, still some time for the Phillips to track them down, but I feel like the Braves have been in first place since day one. That would be a Bummer to see them drop out and get into the wild card. Hey, do us a quick favor. We're halfway home. Hit that like. Hit that subscribe button. Certainly appreciate it a ton. And if you aren't a member of the nation, head on over there today.

Get in. We got Ship It Gamel giving away over $45,000 in cash and prizes this NFL season. My guy Tambo came out of the gate swinging on Wednesday night, won a bunch of money, won a share of a fantasy. I don't know if you saw that, Matt, but he's in a playoff for a fantasy, whatever, world title. Then they played Thursday night and they tied again because they had the same lineup. So, hey, we're off to Sunday. Good luck out there, Tambo.

Next game up on the slate, it is the Cincinnati Reds and Eli De La Cruz. Matt, I got to ask you before I go to the Brewers. Eli De La Cruz, did you see his a hundred and five mile an hour throw from halfway out in the center field to throw out to Oscar Hernandez? Did you see that? I did see that. He is. What a monster. He's homered in five straight games also. Yeah, that's true too. Yeah, he's just been a beast.

I mean, obviously for a lost season for the Reds. But, man, Ellie's fun to watch. He steals bags. He's like six-five. Could probably play tight end for the Bengals as well. They need one. Although, I do like Mike Gesicki this year. Take it on the Milwaukee Brewers. Got the Brewers. Got all my Milwaukee homers in the house. A good old NL Central battle. Andrew Abbott. Taking on your boy, Dustin May, who I think is fresh off an IL stint, if I'm not mistaken, Matt.

Talk to me about this one. I don't think so. Is he? No. He got hit with a liner and just came out early that one game. Is that what it was? Yeah. Yeah, and then he came back. Okay. I hate this, but this is a true, and again, don't get too excited. This is a three-pronger for me. Oh, yeah. I saw how to get one. Yeah, it is. I mean, listen, the Brewers are definitely in play against Abbott. He's not very good.

The Brewers' offense is very good. I don't love stacking them hardly ever, and I'm not going to go crazy with them tonight, but they've got to be in play here. I mean, Abbott just not very good. Milwaukee, I like what I've seen lately. Chourio's been really, really good. I think he looks elite here. Lots to like about the Brewers in this matchup. And then I like May because the Reds strike out a lot. May is a cheaper pitcher. I think that's usable on this slate.

But, I mean, he's also not good. So I would be foolish to not have the Reds at least in play here. That's what you're getting is cheap pitching, though, on this slate. And, again, there are some expensive stacks that look good. So cheap pitching might be needed. May, if he has his good stuff, I mean, he's had some good starts this year. He had a couple good stretches. Not in one right now. And he also just faced the Reds.

Yeah, I mean, he only threw fifty six pitches. I don't love it, but he's got to be in play for me at that tag. He's cheap and I like the matchup and I need cheap pitching on this slate. That's all boils down to, quite frankly. All right. We got some cheap pitchers. We got some cheap pitchers coming up that we're going to get to here in a second. Next game up, it's the Cleveland Guardians, Matt's hometown team.

Headed into the Twin Cities to take on Taj Bradley, $9,500 Taj. Another AL Central battle. Parker Messick, you've been a fan of his all season long, called him a dog even, I believe, in a good sense. But hey, talk to me a little bit about this game. Where do you rank this Southpaw versus the other two Southpaws? And man, Taj Bradley's been been kind of good this year as well, in my opinion. Another pitcher that's going to come virtually unownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗.

Talk to me a little bit about this game. Guardians at the Twins. Yeah, I think Masik is pretty clearly below the other two guys, unfortunately. Like, they just project a lot better. They're better DFS pitchers, better matchups for them. I like Masik as a contrarianContrarianA contrarian play or lineup is one built around choices most of the field will not make, such as low-owned players, unpopular teams or an unusual salary structure.Pick one or two contrarian spots per lineup and ground each in a real reason. The rest of the roster can look like the field.Full explanation ↗ option, but I think that's all he is here. He's just a contrarian option off of Sale or Snell. I don't expect him to have a score as good as them.

But, you know, if you play this slate out like ten times – I'm sure he beats one of them like three and a half times. So if ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ is low enough on him, I can get on board. He's good enough where he could play always. He struggled on the onstart last start, finished at twenty six. Yeah, he is a dog. I could play him any slate. Just not excited about it here because of the opportunity cost and kind of the same with Taj.

Having a really good year, you're right. The projection is just low. I don't love the matchup. And his price tag is right there, too. So, ultimately, like, if I'm spending up here, I want the two top dogs. If not, I'm just going to spend down on pitching. Like, if I have a lineup I love and I have ten, too, and I can't get to the other, sure, play Messick or Bradley, whatever. But other than that, I'm out.

How many teams would you have to play to play either one of these guys? Because I'm assuming you're going to have – I feel like if I play ten lineups, I would play, like, one or two Messick. Bradley, probably more than that. Bradley would take twenty, twenty five lineups to get me to play one or two because I like Sonny Gray more than both. I was going there in a minute. Is it Snell or Sell and all those ten lineups? No, no.

So you'd be fine with not playing them in at least a couple. Yeah. All right. Rank. And this is my next question. Messick, Bradley and Gray. We'll call that the second tier. I'm going to go Gray-Messick-Bradley. A lot of that is price. But I think Gray's also in the cleanest spot, too. He's got the best matchup, for sure, in my opinion. Gray does. Yeah, and he's at home. Do you put much stock in pitchers pitching at home on the road, or you don't really care about that?

Some. I mean, if their numbers are kind of drastic, like someone like Yuri Perez, I look at that. Aaron Nola for a long time, but... You know, a lot of guys aren't necessarily big splits, so I'm not too – I don't care too much. You know, certainly like unless the numbers say otherwise, I never view it as a bad thing pitching at home. You're more comfortable on the rubber. You know, you're at home, all the things, but not something I care too much about.

You get the ball first too, you know. Like you don't have to wait for your offense. Like you just get out there and just get those – Juice is flowing. I've never pitched in a major league game, but I imagine that's what it's like. Yeah, I mean, I don't care about that, but sure. All right, well. You want to talk about some good pitching. We got the Liberace band, the Cardinals.

I love doing a show with you when you talk about the negative regression on the Cardinals. Matthew Liberatore taking on another terrible lefty, Anthony Kaye. White Sox. Somebody in the chat earlier put White Sox for all the marbles or money or something. Taking on the Liberace band. Hey, Matt, I'm going to be honest with you. Our boy Nate was all over these White Sox the other night, and they just pooped down their pants.

And Connor Griffin, I think, is still running on the bases from that contest. But White Sox. Taking on a bad lefty. And in DFS school, the second thing I learned was don't play the White Sox against a lefty. Learned that from you. Thanks, Professor. But White Sox at the Cardinals. So that is not exactly it. It's more that we like the White Sox a lot more against righties, which is true.

But if you really were listening in the lecture, you would know that we can always stack against Lieberthor. It doesn't matter who he's playing. So that trumps everything. Yes, of course. Now, to your point, they're all like, man, the White Sox lineup, it's hard to get excited about them against a lefty. A ton of pinch hit risk. The guys you want, like Murakami, you know, obviously lefty on lefty here. Vargas looks like an elite play. I think of everything else. I like Vargas a lot as a one-off.

I could stack the White Sox here because it's Lieberthor and a bad bullpen, but man, I do like them a lot more against righties. And on a big slate like this, that might be the Tromp card where I'm like, okay, I like them, but do I like them over some other teams? Maybe not. The Cardinals... I don't hate the Cardinals. They got a couple catchers that are interesting. Kay isn't good. But they're also kind of pricey.

They're not really doing it for me, quite honestly. They're just teams I'd rather play over them, even though I don't think they're the worst stack in the world. You know what I mean? Yeah, I hate that park for some reason. I don't know if it's a bad park or a good park. I just feel like it's terrible. I feel like the Cardinals could score five, six runs tonight and it won't even matter. Oh, Andrew Martinez said Murakami is not even in the lineup.

Let me get the, let me, let me refresh. I haven't seen that. Let's see if we've got it updated yet. Yeah, it's out. All right. So now that we got this, you know, Gritchick's not going to play the whole game. He started a couple of times against righties last week, but other than that, your main point is right. Oh, really? Yeah, he did. He's been good for them. Um, so, you know, Murakami is coming in at some point though. Right. Yeah.

So like Doyle's coming out, uh, I mean, honestly, it's probably Doyle. I like their lineup tonight, though. Yeah, I mean, they are stackable. I don't mind them. Libertor is bad. I think they could just crush him enough where the pinch hitting doesn't even matter. I do feel like that also. What about my boy Yoquiero batting fifth? Edward Cueto. Great catcher play. I mean, let me see how cheap he is. Twenty-one hundo. That's a Matt Belman special if I've ever seen one.

Hell yeah. A catcher hitting fifth at $2,100 against Lieber tour. That's probably not going to be too chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗. Yeah. I mean. I mean. Yeah. And then it makes me think like someone like Jake Rogers is going to be unownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. Oh, nobody's playing him. Right. Like like unowned. I kind of like the White Sox sack here. I don't mind their lineup. Yeah, Acuña is definitely getting pitched for at some point. I wouldn't play him. Yeah, I mean, the bottom – the top five looks good.

The bottom four, you're only playing for ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. And I get it, but I don't think you need to play the bottom four. Good stuff there. All right, this is the game I've been waiting for all day to talk about. Because why? Because we have a game in Sacramento – And I feel like there's a lot of, I'll call them revenge games, even though that's not what they're technically called.

You got the Mariners going to garner a bunch of ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, headed into Sactown, NorCal, capital of the great state of California, Matt. I bet you didn't know that. But the problem is, and this is where I want to get your take, Jeffrey Springs, all he did in his last game was dial up a thirty-point DraftKings performance against this same Mariners team, albeit in Safeco Field, so I get that. But talk to me about this game. Where are you going, Mariners, at the Athletics?

I mean, I'm going to the Mariners if I can get there. They're going to be popular. And the problem with the Mariners is the guys you want are expensive. Raleigh, $5,400. Julio, $5,000. Rosa Rain is close to $6,000. A lot more expensive than we've seen recently, but fairly priced for this park and spot. I'm not buying that from Springs now. What I will say about that is it goes back to what we talked about at the beginning of the show.

The Mariners came with the best of them. So it's never crazy to fadeFadeTo fade a player is to leave him out of your lineups on purpose, usually because you expect him to be popular or you think he is a poor play.Fade with a reason, not a feeling. If you can't say why a popular player will disappoint, you're probably just giving away points.Full explanation ↗ them at high ownership or to consider playing a pitcher that's $6,000 against them when they're going to be chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗. On paper though, it's hard for me to not play them here. They got dominated by deGrom last game until they came back in the seventh. Won that game. Now they go from Seattle to Sacramento, about as big of a shift as you can get.

And they get Springs, who they saw his last start, and he pitched his best start of the year. Yeah, I'm in on Seattle here. I think they're popular, but not... Go ahead. They couldn't hit him. He only threw eighty-one pitches, got through seven innings. I mean... Yeah, I mean... I think he's the ultimate... You want to talk about cheap pitching? I think he's the ultimate GPPGPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗ just... The old double leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗. I know you're not buying it, but, man, to me, the Mariners are an easy fade in GPPs.

He pitched pretty well against them, his last start in Sacramento also. So I'll give you that, too. Yeah. And then we had a question. Colson, I'm assuming that's Colson Montgomery and Corey Seager, not Corey Seager brother, former Mariner great, whatever his name was. Colson Montgomery or Tyler Seager was his name. Corey Seager. I think it's a one-off Seager for sure. Nate says hello. Nate doesn't tell me hello, just tells you. That's very hurtful, Nate. Thank you for doing that. White Sox.

White Sox is how you play snail and sail. There you go. There you go. There's the winners right there. Any other questions in the chat? Hamstick. He doesn't tell me. He just says Hamstick. Springs his ass. I appreciate that. I appreciate that. Hello. No need to say hi to him. He says scream. Oh, man. All right. Now out of spite, Matt. Now out of spite, I'm going to have to jam some Springs in there just to shove it up you and Nades' rear end.

That's good stuff right there. No Springs for you, Matt. Can I talk you into some Springs, or are you out? No, I said that he's an interesting GPP play because he's really cheap, and you're going against the chalkiest offense that strikes out a lot, and he's – pitched well against them. So yeah, I mean, I get it. I'm not going to do it most likely, but I don't think it's like a crazy play. I don't think he's like the worst $6,000 pitcher in the world.

He just gives up home runs and this is a really bad park for him. Yeah, it is a bad park. It makes me, it makes me scared. All right. Two games left on the slate. Got, got McKenzie Gore. Going in to take on another twirler, Merrill Kelly, $6,400 bucks. Merrill Kelly, although I do know he's a bad pitcher, Matt, he does get to face his Rangers team. I'm personally not a fan of this Rangers team.

Merrill Kelly's had some some gems this year. So interested to get your take on this. We're in the desert. We're indoors. Got the Rangers. Got the Diamondbacks. Talk to me. Yeah, so. Man, this one is, I, this is the other game that I'm struggling with a little bit. I think that this one is like an all sides are in play. Um, uh, quad prong. Yeah. Uh, yeah. Yeah. Four pronger quad pronger for sure. So I taught me through it. Gore. Hmm.

I like Gore a lot more at home and he's coming off a bad start. So I'm not excited about him, but man, his price tag is really good at $7,300 against a D backs lineup. Um, that isn't that exciting right now. That said, I like the D backs against lefties. Gore has been pretty cheeks on the road and they're affordable. So I think both sides there are in play in tournaments with upside.

I mean, Gore, $7,300 with upside the backs with a bunch of cheap righties against the lefty in play. And then on the other side of this man, Merrill Kelly, Not good, but he's had some decents. He's been much better over the second half than he was in the first half. He's $6,400. And I'm just not really a believer in this Texas lineup. That said, I don't hate the Texas lineup and Kelly still isn't good.

So Texas has got to be in play against him here. They're cheap. They're in play for sure. But I think Kelly is more in play than the field does. So, yeah, all sides here. I don't love anything, but I like it all. So, Corbin Carroll, I believe I saw the other day where it said he's coming back tonight, and it looks like he's in the lineup. He's in the lineup. Okay, I haven't seen it. So, yeah, he is hitting fifth. That's good.

He's coming back. Obviously, you lose the platoon advantage against McKenzie Gore. All right, McKenzie Gore. I thought there was another pitcher. I was going to say Gore at $7,300. I feel like like you said, I didn't it didn't catch my initially. That's dirt cheap for him. I feel like we were paying like $9,000 for him not too long ago. Maybe we weren't. Yeah, that's it is cheap for him. He's not been good recently, but I mean, he's got upset at that tag.

Yeah, and you're saying, yeah, the Diamondbacks look to be good against the left, and they just don't strike you out at home. I mean, those first four guys, if they're in there, I mean, geez, they never strike out. Even your boy could tell. All right, good stuff there. Last game up on the slate. It's going to be quick for me. You got the ultimate revenge game. Robbie Ray, where's he from, Matt? Taking on this Giants team in this park that I wouldn't stack, Prom, Barry Bonds.

I probably would, actually, because he was hitting seventy-three bombs. But Rafaela Devers is doing his best impression of Bonds. But Padres in that amazing bullpen. Behind Robbie Ray, taking on the Giants, Anthony Molina. I saw Anthony Molina in the chat earlier, so we obviously got some Anthony Molina lovers in the chat, but let me hear your take. Padres at the Giants. Yeah, I think Molina is, I mean, I don't know. I'm not playing Molina, but he's coming off a really good start.

He's $7,500 and he's in this ballpark. That said, I kind of like the reverse that I could play some San Diego against him. I don't think Marina is good. Yeah. San Diego coming off a monster game. Merrill with two home runs. He's been one of the best hitters in baseball since the break. You get like an unownedLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ San Diego team here. And what I'll say about the park is, yeah, it sucks.

I'm never going out of my way to stack teams here. But... San Diego is one of the only teams. It's not like a park downgradeBallpark FactorsBallpark factors, also called park factors, measure how much a stadium raises or lowers scoring compared with an average park. Altitude, fence distances, foul territory and typical weather shape them, and some parks favor one side of the plate.Check whether a park factor is split by handedness. Some parks boost left-handed power while doing little for righties, and that split can change which hitters you stack.Full explanation ↗ for them. You know what I mean? Like this is just normal. It's just another day, like another day, another dollar for them. Like this is what they deal with every day. Right. And now they get nine at bats and they run. And I don't think Molina is good. And the bullpen's bad. And they'll be like unowned.

So they're intriguing to me. They are like Merrill Machado to tease. These guys have upside anywhere, and they'll be low on. I don't know if I'm going to do it, but I like the idea of playing some San Diego. Okay. You can get me on board with some San Diego. I don't hate that one iota. Yeah. I mean, at the end of the day, this park is tough. But, like, I talked about the Dodgers in Miami.

And, like, if you're fading the Mariners, like, there's not going to be any, like, uber clean spots. So – Yeah, I dig it. Man, that's awesome stuff. That's all twelve games, ladies and gentlemen. We appreciate you tuning in. Each and every one of you, do us a quick favor before you head out of here, before we get the goods. Hit that like, hit that subscribe button, and if you aren't a member at The Nation, head on over there now.

$45,000 up for grabs if you are an NFL annual member. No better time to get in over here at The Nation. We're rocking and rolling. My guy Belman and I are going to be doing an NFL show this season right up to lock almost, right after inactive. So make sure you tune in to Belman and I moving forward on Sundays. That's at eleven thirty a.m. Eastern Standard Time to talk about position by position and inactives in the NFL.

All right, Matt, we're not going to talk about Chris Sell. We're not going to talk about Blake Snell, Chris Sell or Blake Snell. But give me one pitcher. Give me the other pitcher. At the end of the night, that's going to be in the Winner's Circle. I like your Sonny Gray call. Give me Sonny here. The Royals aren't good. I like his tag. Give me Sonny Gray. Sonny Gray, I like that.

Just to be different than you and not say the same thing as you, I'm going to take former Giant great Robbie Ray going to those old stomping grounds. He's going to take that ball, twist it sideways, and stick it straight up Tony Vitello's rear end. And, yeah, my guy Nades as well. So I'm going to do a morning show with my guy Belman. The Nades and I coming back to do a Sunday sweatshow. Should be a great show. Talk Sunday night football.

Also sweat it down if we got any sweaters in the chat as well. All right, Matt, top three stacks on the board. So I like a bunch of them as we talked about. I am going to go with, man, I like the White Sox. It's Lieberthor. Give me the White Sox one. Give me the Red Sox two. And we got to throw the Mariners in there because I know you won't and I like them here. So give me the Mariners. Yeah, the Mariners.

I thought you were going to say Red Sox number ones. I know you like them a lot. Who's another team that you like that – I'm going to throw the Padres in there just for you. I think they stick out a little bit. I don't love them, but, hey, I'm going to play them because you said play them tonight and you like them and no one's going to be playing them. All right, everybody's favorite portion of the show.

I have a guaranteed home run call of the day, but give me yours first. Yeah, mine is an easy call tonight. I like mine more than yours no matter what, so it doesn't even matter. Miguel Vargas going yard here. Miguel Vargas in Bush Stadium. All right, I'm going to take another little lefty-righty combo. This is for my guy Nades. We talked about it at the beginning of the show. Clean up, up there, red bandana game. Go Bolton College. Go Kansas Jayhawks.

Give me some Mark Vientos to take Carlos Rodon. I think he's got the lowest war of any third baseman in baseball. That is perfect for you, that you like him so much. I don't even know what war is. You couldn't find a better match than that. And I don't even hate him. But, like, you have just raved about Vientos. And I just – I love it. Vientos! Martin Vientos, notable lefty masher.

All right, I'm going to be in the Discord lighting Matt up after he's made fun of me for my home run call. I can't wait for the O for two, two Ks, sub pinch hitter. That would be the definition of rock bottom if that happened. But, hey, it's definitely a play with Mark Vientos. He's got some number of two or four war, whatever that means. I'll give you this, no doubt. For DFS, he hits homers against lefties. That's all we care about, right?

Yeah, right. Yeah, I don't care about a war. I care about hitting bombs. Exactly. I'm with you. Hey, good luck tonight in those contests. Remember what today's all about. I didn't do it at the top of the show. Certainly appreciate everybody tuning in. Red bandana game. Check it out if you don't know what that is. Matt, appreciate it as always. Make sure you tune in to us Sunday.

We got three shows lined up, and six PM Eastern standard time to talk to NFL. Then Matt will be back on Monday with our guy Nades. We're rocking and rolling over here at the nation. Good luck tonight in those contests. Hope to see at the top of the leaderboards until next time. Just ship.