Falcons vs Saints – MNF Showdown Shippers | NFL Week 4 | DFS Picks, Plays & Process

That was one of the grossest days of football I think I've watched in a long time. I mean, I don't know if it's just because I lost, my teams weren't doing great. In the afternoon, eventually the normal people, Kenneth Walker, Bowers got there, but man, it just felt like, I mean, that whole Jacksonville-Cincy game completely flopped. If you didn't have Houston-Dallas, CeeDee Lamb, Nico, CJ, like you weren't really winning anything. Parker Washington, as disappointing as it gets. Then your boy, Rashee Rice.

Oh, man, that was crazy. So I don't know if you want to talk about anything with that. But, yeah, not a great main slate for me, a good one for you. But, yeah, what you got to say about that? Yeah, my guy Rice, man. That was painful. I mean, I don't know. Do I get the DraftKings injury void situation? We're going to have to run that back, though. We got to have a slate where the dude makes it past the first five plays.

We'll pick a new spot for the Rice versus whoever you want sort of bet, but that was bad. That was a good game. There's some teams now that are starting to separate themselves a little bit from the pack. It's definitely not my Lions. I do want to touch on that because I've been saying it since week one that the secondary would be horrible and they wouldn't be able to stop anyone. That's just about as bad as it gets.

When you've got a guy that can do whatever he wants. And McMillan's good. You know, don't get me wrong, but this is still a young dude in the NFL and you just let him do whatever the hell he wanted the entire game. And you had no chance of slowing it down. Just very pathetic, very annoying as a Lions fan.

I mean, we always talk, I mean, fandom for us is a little bit different because we're rooting for our dollars over our own teams, but, you know, still sort of rooting for the the Lions a little bit, like you knew this was an issue coming into the season. You don't address it at all. And you pretend like you're just going to be able to roll out the guys that you have to, to make, make, make some difference.

Like there is no way like this team as constructed is going to be able to slow anyone down, but for DFS, it's, it's going to be a good situation to stay on. Now everyone has seen it. So it's going to be a little bit different and, you know, more people are going to be on. I think they got the Cardinals coming up. The total is already at like fifty four. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't come up, but that was painful to watch last night.

I mean, for sure, just we knew that about your Lions. Just like Nate said about the Packers, I knew coming in for the Packers, their offensive line was terrible. They didn't really do too much to figure that part out. And, yeah, when you can't win the trenches and you can't cover anyone, it's going to be a long year, even if you can move the football.

So, I mean, yeah, Vikings, four and O without able – like they can't even move the football and they find themselves four and O. The Bears find ways to win.

I mean – yeah like Mike says over here for in wisconsin where we got the brew crew and that's about it because the bucks aren't going to be very good either yeah uh that Minnesota I mean Tyler again like I know I've beat this to death but he is awful as an NFL quarterback their defense is elite don't get me wrong they played some bad teams and they've taken advantage of that situation but long-term if you got a guy like kyler back there it's just I watched that game because I I had a lot of the Minnesota stuff so I was tuning in it's just he never it's always he's always

Going to like the second and third read and then like it's just too late like if you're gonna do that you gotta move out of the pocket he just stands there he's he's horrible I mean he is he is really really bad now when Justin Jefferson comes back he's gonna have that out where it's like oh let's just chuck it up to this guy And that'll probably work out and it's going to bail them out a lot.

But right now that looks awful, that Minnesota situation. For sure. Did you see with your lines on like Amin Ra's podcast, golf was on there and Amin Ra just like pretty much like called him out and was being really weird to him. I don't see that, no. Oh, my gosh. So awkward. Amin Raz. Yeah. Lost all respect to any normal human being. Yeah, pretty much was like, you do nothing with the team. You don't sit with us. Oh, wow. Just podcasting.

It couldn't have been any more awkward. And, yeah, let's just say I think that team's in trouble. Yeah. And you saw yesterday it was a modern Ryan Gibbs sitting on the bench just when the defense was out there just like shaking their head like what is this mess? I mean, yeah. And it sucks for guys like Aiden Hutchinson on the defense. It's like, man, like it doesn't matter what you do up front.

Like, you know, as soon as that ball leaves the quarterback's hand, something bad's gonna happen. Against your defense. So, yeah, a lot of interesting stuff. The injuries, though, for sure, hopefully they slow down because it's been a ton and they just kind of keep on coming. But in regards to this game, any initial thoughts here? And you can kind of just go in and we're going to follow the same format, talk about captains first.

So any initial thoughts and then go into what you're thinking at the captain positionShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗? I mean, great game we got on Monday night. NFC South, a battle. I mean, the Panthers just got a win, so it's a big game for both these teams. We saw that with Michael Penix back. Like I said, I mean, it's not that he was even great. Cooper Rush was as bad as it gets, but they just dominated the Packers on Thursday. They get a long weekend.

No one was able to stop Bijan. Drake London finally got going. The offense looked a lot better. On the Saints side, no... Travis Achane, I guess, is his name. It's not ETF, which is so it's driving me crazy. But so he's out. So it's a run. I mean, Kamara, we think is going to be the guy. $7,000's price up, though. Keandre Miller, $5,000. We know the pass catchers. Tyler Chuck's been great this year. And Chris Olave, Vele, Juwan Johnson have all benefited.

Pretty greatly. So I think we, I mean, total sitting at forty seven and a half. Only one of that point favorites are the Saints. I think we're in for a good football game in terms of DFS. Value's pretty tough on this slate. That's one takeaway. And when Bijan is on the slate, he's projected almost thirty percent at captain Drake London, a lot of a shock like we have spends we want going and trying to find some cheap value is not very good.

So I do think people are going to want to go more middling Bills if they're able to. And that's going to lead, I think, a good amount of people to like the kicker stuff.

Um so that's kind of my broad slate you do you have anything to add or you just want me to jump right into what I think at captain or what I've got yeah I mean just kind of reiterating the same points I mean like there you

Know who the studs are on the slate with with the Falcons it you know I definitely will take the l it's one thing I do and like not many other people are willing to do like I I wasn't I didn't think pennex would would be that much of a difference maker for this team him coming back and I was wrong because uh he looked pretty good and he did a good eating like when you got Bijan and you got Drake London you have one job right it's like get those guys the ball and he does a hell of a job doing that job getting those guys the ball and I guess for overall fantasy purposes it makes it not

Necessarily difficult but it's like man on the Falcons side like who can you make the case for outside of Bijan and Drake London for captain And it's pretty difficult. So that's one thing that definitely stands out to me. And I can almost say the same thing on the Saints side. It's like Chris Olave has done so much. Like he's phenomenal. I mean, if you go back and redraft some of these best balls, like you're probably going to take Chris Olave and around one, right?

Like, I mean, the way he's been playing, like he's probably a twelfth or thirteenth pick, you know, and he was going, you know, twenty five for most of the year. He's been a stud. Vele has been amazing. I mean, a legitimate number two wide receiver getting solid targets, you know, six, seven targets in that range. Juwan Johnson has been solid.

But yeah, to make the case for captains, I think is a little bit difficult outside of like, you know, Bijan, you know, Drake London, you know, Chris Alave, Tyler Schuch. But then we run into the issue. Those guys are the most expensive guys on the slate. So is there enough value to get overweight on those guys? And I think that's the real issue on the slate.

You're almost forced, especially making a lot of lineups to bring some of these other guys into the conversation. So, yeah, those are just my initial thoughts on it. So you can kind of take it away from there. Yeah, I mean, clearly I like Bijan. How much more to the field am I going to be able to get overweight on? I doubt too much. Like you said, a lot of those builds will be similar.

Salary's tight on this slate, so it's pretty tough to get different there. I think Olave's my favorite. Everything, like you said, he's just been so good this year. He's receiving prop. Eighty-six and a half yards, excuse me. Then it's Drake Lundin, eighty two and a half and then no one above forty five and a half on this slate. So I think this is a smash spot for Olave.

You can even drop down from Bijan to Olave just straight up one V one in the captain spotShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗ is a way to get difference. Tyler Shucks, the other one. Those are my clear three favorites. He can run. He can spread it out to an extent. Like, Noah Fant is a decent bit of injury news on this slate. He's used his tight ends a lot this year, both of them.

And, like, when Fant's in, I think it raises my interest at Chuck Captain just because he can spread it out more. Like, in the red zone, Fant's a big option. When Chuck is going to be on the winner at Captain, more than Likely he's probably throwing two touchdowns to two different receivers at least and then maybe running one in. And it just gets more condensed if there's no Noah Fant. Yeah. I like Shaq regardless at captain. That is something interesting to note.

For me, though, I will be hoping fans in for that. After that, Drake London, I mean, eighty two and a half receiving yards. He's expensive. Seven percent, though, at captain coming off the game that he had, though, in a close spread is something I'll be interested in. It's tough after that. But I mean, there's I think three clear ones for me. It's Bailey at $7,800. It's like a sticker shock. Why is he all the way up at $7,800?

He's been phenomenal this year. Targets in every single game have been great. He's playing almost ninety percent of snaps. He's always on the field and he's like the number two option for shock when defense is trying to take away a lot. Bailey's been really good for him. So I think I want to overspend. For Vele, again, looking at the props and his price, he seems overpriced.

But I think he has a – I mean, it's clear he has a really good role on this team. And he's someone I can get a little different at. Captain, the other two, Jawan Johnson and Tyler Pitts, again, same thing kind of can be said about Jawan Johnson. He's – props not great. Let's see. He's plus-two-thirty-five to score, which is the same as Vele and fine. Forty-five-and-a-half receiving prop. Vele's forty-three-and-a-half. It's just the same type of thing.

You hope he scores two touchdowns and he's showing to be three percent on that captain. The last one, it's tough to make a case, but I guess I'll do it. Tyler Pitts, $5,800. Again, Penix is back. The offense is moving the ball more. $5,800 and one percent on that captain when you don't want to spend all the way up. If you're getting in a different roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗, it's been terrible for him.

We're still only a couple of weeks in, though. Second week with Penix. Yeah, one percent, $5,800, I think is worth taking a shot on. We know the upside he does have and he's shown to be really low on Netflix, too. Yeah, I mean, pretty much on the same page. I mean, Bijan, it's one of those – what was the slate? Maybe it was the Bijan slate or the Gibbs slate.

It's like these guys, when they're on these slates, it's a different conversation than everyone else. They're going to be so highly owned. They have the massive slate breaking upside. So, yeah, Bijan, yes, play him as much as you can for sure. After him, like Chris Alave, if there's like a big difference in ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ between those two, you know, we're showing – about half the ownership for Olave as to Bijan. Easier to make a play on Olave. Easier to get overweight on Olave.

So that's one situation that I'm definitely interested in. Olave being half owned than Bijan in the captain spot. If this number does hold true for Drake London... At eight percent, I hope that's the case. Like we talked about it, you know, in the opening, basically. It's like, man, with with Penix in there, he knows to get this guy the ball. And, you know, that's what he did last time. And if if this number is true, I just wanted to.

See, it's, you know, ten targets, you know, nine for one ninety four against Green Bay last week. And, you know, Green Bay is obviously not great, but it doesn't matter for these top wide receivers. Like people are afraid to play CeeDee Lamb yesterday because of Houston great defense. How did that work out for him? Seventeen catches. Boom, boom, boom. These top wide receivers.

I just don't think there's any there's anyone that can really slow them down when they have a good connection with their quarterback. So I hope this number is true. I do suspect it will come up a little bit, probably closer to ten. But still a great, great play. You know, Tyler Schoch, fine with him. It does concern me a little bit if this, you know, twenty percent number is true, but I definitely want him in the pool.

He has guys he can spread it out to. It could be three hundred and three to Alave, Vele, Juwan Johnson.

And then you have now, you know, Kamara in there as well, who's in there to catch passes uh essentially so um definitely fine with shock and then like it's what do you do after that I'm glad you brought up valet it's like it's an uncomfortable price tag and it's going to be uncomfortable for flex too when we go through and just talk position by position $7,800 form people are not going to want to do that on the slate so I do like him up top he's getting a lot of work if there is a scenario where uh

The the Falcons kind of you know try they're not going to be able to, but if they pay more attention to Alave and try to slow him down, maybe Vele is the guy that can benefit from that and you look at it nine seven six so averaging over seven targets per gameTarget ShareTarget share is the percentage of a team's targets (passes thrown toward an intended receiver) that go to one player. A receiver who sees 8 of his team's 32 targets has a 25 percent target share.Judge target share over the last three or four games, not the full season, especially after a trade, an injury or a quarterback change. The most recent role is the one you are paying for.Full explanation ↗ like that's that's great you know if that's the case he could easily go six for one twenty and a touchdown and he's has a chance to be optimal captain so like him and then Jawan Johnson was the other guy that I had in mind two touchdown upside he can get the two and the one thing I like about tight ends when I look at him, like, are there, are they converting their targets into receptions in the last two weeks?

It's, you know, four for four and eight for eight, four targets, four catches two weeks ago, eight targets, eight receptions last week. I love that. Like he can catch the ball. So those are my two guys outside of the main ones, Vele, Jonathan, the pitch thing. I get it, but man, like I'm not actively building it. If it's in my one and I get a little bit, I'd be fine. But, yeah, it's ugly for Pitts.

But, yeah, those guys, those main guys, it's tough to look past. The few situations I'm looking at amongst those top few is Alave being half owned as Bijan and then Drake London potentially being like the lowest owned of that top group. And if that's the case, I'd like to make a play on Alave and Drake London. So it's kind of what I'm thinking. Anything else to add there? Yeah, just touching on this, like it's not for me.

We're going to touch on the running back room. I'm really hesitant to play these Saints guys. Not only like even when A-Chan, again, it feels so weird to say, but like when he played the first two weeks, they still were rotating. Like week one, A-Chan played fifty nine percent of snaps. Keandre Miller, twenty nine percent. C.J. Donald, seventeen percent. Week two, fifty four percent. A-Chan Kamara came back. Twenty nine percent. Donaldson, twenty nine percent.

Last week, A-Chan got hurt in that game, but no one played over forty percent of snaps. They just continue to rotate in the backfield. So it feels it feels pretty it's hard for me to see that one of these guys getting like twenty plus carries or fifteen plus carries are just completely taking over the backfield, which at these prices, $7,000 and $5,000, those are real price tags. You have to do something.

So I don't plan on playing any Saints running backs at captain. Yeah, it is wild, though, how These running backs, they go from being the guy to being just a guy, like within the matter of one season. I mean, Kamara was a twenty plus touch guy recently. Now, all of a sudden, like he's a ten touch guy, which makes it very difficult for this sort of format where you need those big, huge performances.

And he doesn't he's not a guy that can go out there and break off huge plays in the run game. So the way he gets there is by volume. It's always been the case with Kamara, really. It's a volume-based play, but he's just not getting the volume. So it just makes it difficult from that perspective. So we'll go in and kind of hit on each position. You can go and we'll talk about quarterbacks first. Obviously, we talked about them a little bit.

I really didn't say much about Penix. I mean, I'm assuming we didn't talk about him in the captain spotShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗. I have no interest in the captain. I'm assuming you don't. When he has the big game, When he has a good game, it usually means Drake London has a massive game. So it's really hard to play Penix in the captain spot. But in the flex, I think he's fine. A low projection, . But I don't know. He looked good to me.

Like I said, I took the L on him. I didn't think he played as well as he did. First game back, he looked fine. Good in the flex for playing Penix. Drake London captain teams. I think he's a great guy to include in the flex. So just talk about these quarterbacks and how you're going to use them overall. Yeah, I'm not playing Penix at captain, like you said. It's so concentrated when he gets there.

It's either probably going to be a dump off to Bijan who takes it, peppering London. Maybe Pitts finally has his game. If I am playing him at captain, I would probably want three of Bijan, Drake London, Dotson, Pitts, Zaccheaus. Maybe you can even add, like, Charlie Wagner and stuff, too. I'd feel like he would have to be throwing touchdowns to multiple guys. London not getting the bonus. Pitt's not getting the bonus. It feels like you need too much to go right for that.

But, yeah, and the flex for sure. Tyler Shuck, though, you can play him everywhere. I mean, his game log, his last five games, . This dude's balling. He has rushing upside as well, at home, big game. Ownership's there, though. It's not like I'm breaking the news to anyone. He's been a great quarterback, a great fantasy quarterback, and I definitely am playing him in both spots today.

Yeah, one thing just to add, because we always try to point this out whenever a quarterback's coming in low-ish owned in the flex. It could be the case tonight for Pennix. We're showing right around thirty, thirty percent. That's a low number for a quarterback in the flex. And I think a lot of it has to do with roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗, the lack of value and the studs that we want to play in the captain spot. So touch on that real quick. Yeah, for sure.

Also, it comes down, and we've seen it, the last two slates pretty much are – I don't know if it's last two or two of four or whatever, but Rodgers and Case Keenum, two oldies that cannot move, that people did not want to click at captain, even really in the flex. Case Keenum was low in the flex. Rodgers lower owned than most.

They got there, and if you do get there like those two slates, you get paid handsomely if you are in first place. So if you're playing a lot of teams, probably a mistake to X out, but – Again, he's not going to run. He really needs to spread out the ball. You need a lot to go right, but it's one game. We see crazier things happen. Yeah, I agree. All right. We'll talk about some of these running back plays.

Touched on Bijan, obviously, in the captain conversation. You know, touched on Kamara Miller. But let's kind of talk about how we can apply these guys in the flex position. You know, one thing for sure that was interesting last late, the Falcons were on. It was the solo shipper for five hundred thousand. And one of the main roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗ pieces was Bijan captain. It was our guy, Knowlesman. He had Bijan captain and then Brian Robinson Jr. Jr. In the flex.

That's what made that lineup pretty unique. People aren't typically doing that sort of thing. So that's an interesting point. You got the split in work between Kamara and Miller. Miller, $2,000 cheaper. Kamara is $7,000 Miller $5,000. I think it's a good opportunity. If you do land on this sort of build that has Kamara in the flex, you can drop down to Miller.

I mean, basically could essentially be the same play for $2,000 less and then you're eliminating a bunch of dupe. So talk through these running backs in the flex. Yeah, Falcons side, you can play Bijan, Brian Robinson Jr.. We've seen it work in those game scriptsGame ScriptGame script is how a game's score and time remaining influence its pace, play choices and player opportunities. In football, teams protecting a lead often run more, while teams chasing a deficit often pass more.Before locking a lineup, ask who keeps playing if your expected script reverses. Check passing-down roles and backup rotations instead of assuming a team's leading rusher handles every situation.Full explanation ↗. Usually it is the Falcons leading. That's definitely what it was in that Packers situation.

Had a decent lead because, yeah, the more they're winning, the less inclined they are to just run Bijan in the ground and they still want to run the football, control the clock. But even in closer games, Brian Robinson Jr.. Is out there a little bit, twenty five percent, forty eight percent, twenty seven percent is a snaps. And that week, too, when he had forty eight percent was a blowout. So that number is not true.

So, yeah, you'll probably get like six and a half rushing. Actually, I can see what his rushing attempt prop is. No, DraftKings doesn't even have it posted. For Brian Robinson Jr.? Yeah, twenty nine and a half is yards. I wanted to see his rushing attempt prop. But yeah, I mean, he's not really going to catch passes. You need them to get a touchdown more than Likely when you play him. But he's $3,800 on a slate without much value. So he's fine.

I don't love it. My favorite is Keandre Miller, though, for sure. I'm not convinced. I do think Kamara is going to be. Yeah, he's going to probably get more rushing attempts. He's going to be out there on the first play, probably get the first drive or two. But again, week one, Keiondre Miller was decently involved when Travis Achane was there. Again, Kamara was hurt week one, but the Saints have shown willingness to rotate running backs really heavily. C.J.

Donaldson down here, when he's on the field, he pretty much never gets the ball, which is not great. But at fourteen hundred on a slate where there is like no value, we're going to talk about Bryce Lance for four hundred more. Zaccheaus for six hundred more. Zachariah Branch, Hooper, Dotson, like those guys are all going to be played way, way more than C.J. Donaldson. So fourteen hundred. We haven't seen this situation without a Chan what they're going to do.

So a lot of unknowns in the Saints backfield. When that's the case, give me the guys that are $2,000 cheaper and then a lot cheaper than Kamara. I test wise, Kamara hasn't looked great. OwnershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, he's showing double than these guys. You can leave the money in a vacuum. It's definitely Keandre Miller. Then I'll probably say Donaldson and then Kamara when it comes down to breaking down this range. That's a real price tag at $7,000. You need Jawan, Johnson, Bailey.

Then give me the stars and scrubsStars and ScrubsStars and scrubs is a DFS lineup structure where you spend heavily on several expensive players and fill other roster spots with low-salary players. The cheap players free up salary for the stars; they are not necessarily bad players.Compare the points you gain by upgrading to a star with the points you sacrifice at the cheap spot. Check whether both players still fit your lineup's scoring scenario.Full explanation ↗ build I guess more it's it's hard to click that name for me the $7,000 price tag especially on this slate where it could be high scoring like it's we always use the term I think it's it's very applicable for a lot of these slates and I know you and I both use the term where it's like you gotta at that price you have to do something we say right depending on the slate depending on the price like all right this guy has to do something Kamara is do something plus you got to do something plus something else at $7,000 it's not going to be good enough to get in my eyes fifty yards and

A touchdown that's probably not good enough like you have to do he's at the price point where it's like you got to do something plus something else to be the guy you need so I'm down on him too I hope that gap in ownership remains again another situation where it's like double the ownership. Kamara's ownership is double Miller. But I guess to this point here, thoughts on just fading? Yeah, you definitely don't have to play either. Sure. Like fading themFadeTo fade a player is to leave him out of your lineups on purpose, usually because you expect him to be popular or you think he is a poor play.Fade with a reason, not a feeling. If you can't say why a popular player will disappoint, you're probably just giving away points.Full explanation ↗ is a great play.

And Likely I'm going to be under on Kamara. And probably over on Miller. But if you're hand-building, definitely don't need to come here at all if you don't want to. But my preferred play would definitely be Miller. Good with Brian Robinson Jr., Jr. I mean, he's price where if he gets in the box, that's good enough at $3,800. So, yeah, pretty much on the same page there.

We have one other thing just looking at uh candry miller $5,000 price say we haven't met about fifteen percent nick fault $5,400 twenty percent Daniel Carlson $4,800 twenty one percent both defenses are looking at fourteen percent so right in that same range uh you have other people that are going to be more popular so I think he's a fine pivots uh again it is relatively close when it comes to those prices but I mean, a skill position player like Miller, you can drop from folk to Miller Lee, four hundred dollars.

And yeah, I'm I'm not convinced by when it's all said and done that Kamara might even out snap them. So we'll see how the game goes. I don't think the Saints really know. I think it's probably going to be more of a ride the hot hand. Like, yeah, who's doing what was actually more active in the passing game last game than Kamara was. And like you play Kamara for his ability to catch passes, Miller was more active in in that game last week than Kamara was.

So it's one thing to keep in mind when looking at it, too. But, you know, you don't need to go to either if you're hand-building teams. There's definitely other plays to potentially look at. So go to wide receiver. And, you know, a lot of these guys we talked about are the top ones we talked about when discussing Captain Olave, Drake London. I mean, to me, Valet at $7,800, I think it's a really good play. I wouldn't be surprised. We're showing twenty one percent.

I wouldn't be surprised if this drops to twenty.

Upper teens I mean it doesn't really change much anyway but I think it could be lower than the the twenty one percent it's just a awkward price for a guy that has always been a value guy a bargain guy people are not going to want to click that name at at $7,800 and a lot of people probably won't be able to click that name because of the way they're building their teams with bijan up top or tyler shuck and the the captain spotShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗ like you start running out of salary quick so Bailey to me definitely stands out we talked about a lobby we talked about London um you know two absolute studs do have some cheap guys though that are getting relatively decent uh projections Dotson at

$3,000 as a projection of six talk that you already touched on uh Bryce Lance at eighteen hundred projected for uh five and then you have Branch and zekias $2,400 $2,000 they have you know two three fantasy points not a big number obviously but you know when you're talking show now uh it does come into play and then Kevin Austin Jr., eight hundred dollars as a projection of of two. So we do have some potential cheap, cheap plays on the slate.

Dotson is only one that Dotson and Lance, nineteen percent for Dotson, sixteen percent for for Lance and everyone else. You know, not much single digits, but are some cheap guys here that are potentially in play. So talk to me about this position. I wish I had a hot take. My only take is these guys are over-owned, and it's not even close, but it just comes back to the lack of value on the slate and needing to complete your team.

Sure, Bryce Lance, he plays seventy-ish percent of snaps, which is really good, and that's why he's going to be on the field more than anyone even close to his range. But yeah, we have it at sixteen percent. To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if it's like Twenty four percent, because when people go to this range and look at projection, there's going to be no other pivots that people want to click. It's kind of why I mentioned C.J. Donaldson.

Fourteen hundred is someone that I have interest in because he's a pivot off all these cheapies. Jahan Dotson sitting at like twenty percent. I mean, we talk about it. It's so concentrated. It's Bijan. It's London. It's Pitts. And then they rotate these guys as the wide receiver. Well, Dotson is the wide receiver, too. We'll play like sixty five percent of snaps, but still Zaccheaus rotates in. Chris Blair rotates in. Zachariah Branch rotates in. They're probably going to do nothing.

More than Likely, they won't be on the optimal. But, I mean, seeing eighteen percent from Dotson, seven Zaccheaus, four Branch and one for Blair. To be honest, I think I just prefer Zaccheaus, Branch, Blair overall. As a way to get different. I know I'm jamming in expensive chalk. I need to get different in places. You can leave a little money doing that. You can full punt Chris Blair. He gets a zero, and maybe that's still fine to be optimal because all the studs on the slate smash.

If the mid-tier busts and you have three of Bijan, London, Penix, Chuck, Olave just completely go off – you need maybe three or four of those guys and then two complete punts that score one or two might be enough. I could see it being a slate like this. So I'm going to, Hate doing it, but I'm going to play some Zaccheaus, some Branch, I think, some Blair.

And it really is just hoping I get a catch, maybe two catches, but what it allows me to do, and that's jamming all the studs above. So I think Dotson, Lance, I'm nervous at ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ because I think they get steamed because you really have no choice when you want to go dumpster diving and fit in the studs, and it's going to really concentrate around them.

Uh yeah and I was just kind of looking around just to see like how true these numbers are and actually makes things like thirty five percent for for uh

Lance which seems hot no just because there's a couple of them like there's there's lance there's dots in like there's there's other guys not just the one so it's gonna be I think it will be probably higher when when people build I mean like he said you know this is an important part you go in there and you just run teams don't change anything you're gonna get a ton of these guys so If you're someone that does use an opt-op miser, make sure you use the min-max or adjust the projections a little bit so you're not getting as much or kind of even it out the numbers like bring Branch up, bring Zaccheaus up so you're getting some of those guys instead of Lance.

Or, you know, Dotson, the other guy that's getting a ton. So it's just a couple things you can definitely do. But I'm with you, man. Like, if these guys are coming in over twenty percent, like, these guys are legitimate candidates for a goose egg. Like, legit candidates. Like, it's you wouldn't be surprised at all if they get zero. So you got to be very careful. And again, if you are using an optimizer, it's going to force these guys in.

So make sure you're kind of moving things around. We did get to update here. So let me just make sure nothing changed. Yeah. When you're saying that again, that's kind of like, It sucks, but CJ Donaldson, I'm going to keep coming back to these guys or to him mainly. He's cheaper than all those receivers we talked about. He's going to be on the field. Um, and yeah, any of those wide receivers, you can just drop right down to, uh, to Donaldson.

Like all those guys have zero in, uh, For sure. And so does Donaldson. But, hey, one carry for eight yards is at least point eight. Like these guys have to catch something at the receiver position. So, yeah, when we're seeing Donaldson four percent and Lance maybe twenty five percent, some some way you can get different. But, man, it's it's tough at receiver. The reason it's tough is because, A, the Saints use tight ends very heavily and on the Falcons side.

It's Drake London, and it's pretty much nothing after that. So it's concentrated on both these sides. So good luck guessing the right wide receiver three today. Yep, and I guess we'll go to tight end, and it's pretty wild that – At this point, the big news on the slate is whether or not Noah Fant plays, and it is actually pretty big news, which is kind of crazy to say.

I mean, Fant has been involved in this offense coming off a four-target game, four catches, thirty-three yards, two touchdowns for nineteen fantasy points week one.

Uh four catches oh that's wild is this legit four for thirty three both these weeks four for thirty three and he had a touchdown in week one so he has a thirteen fantasy point game a nineteen point fantasy game um obviously they're using multiple uh tight ends uh if he is out um The guy is Oscar Delp, who kind of already has a projection. He's been on the field.

Obviously, you kind of follow that stuff a little closer in terms of snaps, but he's been involved, not heavily involved, but he's been on the field. He's four hundred dollars. This would alleviate some of the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ from some of those wide receivers that we just talked about. But I'm assuming Delp will get steamed to a very high number if Fant were to be ruled out. If Fant is in. I'd like him. I'd play him.

And maybe people build teams early and just exclude him because he is the only questionable guy on the slate. But, you know, we talked about DeJuan Johnson, good with him, especially Tyler Shuck, captain teams, great play. Tyler Pitts Sr., probably in the flex, you probably need to take a look at him because of the salary savings. Like we don't have many cheap guys. He's $5,800, not getting really a ton of ownership, still only showing sixteen percent.

So I like him quite a bit in the flex. He's going to be priced similarly to those kickers that we'll get to next. The kickers will have more ownership. Than him. But I like pits where man just scored me one touchdown and we're good. Austin Hooper is out there, $2,800. So a lot to talk about at this position. But yeah, a lot of it is around whether or not Noah Fant plays, which is kind of incredible. It is incredible.

But yeah, Noah Fantz, I mean, I assume if anyone's watching Saints games, like you probably get a little tilted hoping it's Jawan Johnson or Olave or whatever. Noah Fantz has had quite a big role on this team. They definitely play some two tight ends. So if Noah Fantz plays, $4,400 is most definitely overpriced for his role. But I mean, he's showing like five percent. And again, I mean, he scored a touchdown already.

So I would probably overspend for Fantz as a way to get different in that kicker defense situation. Range a little bit counter a Miller range, you can leave money from all of them and play Him, yeah, Pitts is fine. Jawan Johnson fine. There's really not much to add about them. I think with these backups, though, yeah, Oscar Delp's in play, even if Fant is in and his ownership would stay down. Again, four hundred dollars, like zero. He gets you zero, but all the studs smash.

Again, I could see it happening on this slate. We haven't seen it much recently, but it has happened in the past couple of years where zeros all the way below are on the winner side. Charlie Wagner has been there's been some softer pricing like in years past where the price was a little more aggressive, the zeros would fly. But there are some pretty high price tags on the slate.

So I do think that sort of that sort of lineup could potentially win on a slate like this, where we do have four or five legitimate studs. And if they all go off and then like the zeros in play. So I think this is a slate where it could play. Yeah, you need it to be concentrated, like you said, with the studs, which we have. You need pricing to be pretty tight, which we have.

And then, yeah, it mainly comes down to if kickers, if these teams aren't really kicking field goals and they're scoring points on offense so the kickers and defenses don't get there, You're probably in for a stars and scrubStars and ScrubsStars and scrubs is a DFS lineup structure where you spend heavily on several expensive players and fill other roster spots with low-salary players. The cheap players free up salary for the stars; they are not necessarily bad players.Compare the points you gain by upgrading to a star with the points you sacrifice at the cheap spot. Check whether both players still fit your lineup's scoring scenario.Full explanation ↗ slates. The Charlie Wagner at six hundred. I'm going right back to him. He actually out snapped Tyler Pitts by one last week. Sixty one percent of snaps. Austin Hooper was the one that got the touchdown, which was annoying.

And again, I'm fine playing him at $2,800. But I think at this tight end position, Charlie Wagner might be my favorite at ownership, which is really gross. But again, it's a pivot from the lances of the world. The key is Dotson. You can get even cheaper. For them, Delp is in play if fans in, if fans out. To be honest, I like Delp less. I mean, he's four hundred dollars, so I would get some.

But if you guys are talking twenty percent like there's and I'm not convinced it gets that high. Maybe. I mean, if that's the case, though, twenty percent Delp. Seems pretty terrible. Four hundred, I guess, is four hundred dollars. But everyone would be on the same roster constructionRoster ConstructionRoster construction is how you organize a DFS lineup within its salary cap and roster rules. It includes where you spend or save, which positions you prioritize, and how your players fit together.Build two versions around your biggest spending decision, then compare every player who changes. Revisit the comparison when injury news changes the available value.Full explanation ↗. Charlie Wagner, I think, would be even a better play in my opinion. The full on like four hundred dollar plays. It's very rare where they get like the extreme, extreme ownership like. Could it get close to that?

I mean, maybe like twelve percent or so. Yeah, I was thinking maybe like fifteen or something like at the highest. But it is a slave where we need value, like we're starving for value and we want to play the studs. So like I could see it being higher than it's been, but it's very rare for these full on punts to get all the way up to like that. Twenty percent, though.

Yeah, and I mean, to be honest, maybe I'm completely wrong because, I mean, we have him at twelve percent right now with Fant in. Again, I think that feels a little hot. Yeah, I think it's high. Other sources have it lower. Like, I think it's probably lower. Like, there's no way this guy's twelve percent if Fant is in. He's had how many fantasy points this season?

Like I think that just shows that what this slate is that people are fine taking your zero at the close like the farthest punt yeah I just don't think twelve percent of the field I agree fine with that he has one point eight fantasy points on the season like if if Fant is in he has that that's his role you know like he's the one point eight fantasy point guy um so yeah exactly and I don't think I don't think it gets to to that number.

And I mean, the reaction time too comes into play too. I mean, we're talking to people that are more than just novice players, people that are in this to make money, the advanced sort of players. There's a big portion of people that are not building their lineups after this news comes out. That's why these plays never fully get to that super high ownership.

But it just goes to show you what the slate is like in terms of value that we're having an in-depth conversation about Oscar Delta. Yeah, it feels like every, I mean, last Thursday it was about Charlie Wagner and then Austin Hooper got in the box. So I'm hoping that we're just a week late. And again, the higher owned Delp is, the more I like Charlie Wagner as a pivot. Nades is definitely right on this though.

Like I think if fans out, Oscar Delp comes up in ownership, I would like him more in Olave teams and Chuck captain teams and London captain teams. Who's still going to get some ownership at captain, but it's clear that Bijan is going to probably be double, uh, Um, or he's going to be a lot higher on than everyone else at captain. A lot of Bijan captain teams will have Delp just because it makes a lot more work there.

So the tight end position is, I think it's solid in the sense of that. There's a lot of guys, both of these teams are going to rotate multiple different tight ends, run to all personnel. Um, and you need value on the slate. So Charlie Wagner, Oscar Delp, I guess overspending for fans. If he's in as a pivot in that mid range ability to leave money, um, Man, Jawan Johnson price tags up there. I think I almost like him more at captain or nothing.

Again, I'm going to play a lot of teams. I'm not going to have him at flex, but $7,400. It's just like get me all the way there and smash or just hope you're not optimal because you're in a weird range. Yeah, I could definitely see that. I like that point. Kickers, defense. Let's see, the kickers are priced where they normally are. I got the Saints, $4,200. Falcons, $3,600. Anything standing out kicker defense-wise. Wouldn't be surprised to see like us.

So what do we have? We have nineteen percent full, twenty one percent Carlson. Maybe put a five percent bump to both guys. Again, it just comes down to who else are you clicking in that mid range? Nobody. I think the kicker is going to be the most appealing. I think you can. Defenses will be lower own for sure, like we're showing. So any kicker team, Carlson or folk, you go down to Falcons or Saints. That's one way to get difference.

If you are trying to play Lance, Can he outscore kickers and defenses in a vacuum? If you think that, plug these guys in, go to Lance. But when I play the kickers, because I do like them today, but it's like, how can I play them to get different? Plug in Vele, take Vele out and go to Nick Fulk. Plug in Juwan Johnson, take Juwan Johnson out, go to Carlson, Kamara, whatever it is. Like they could score all, outscore them in a vacuum there.

And I have been thinking about it. On a slate where pricing is so concentrated, on a captain slate that is so concentrated, is this one of these days? I mean, we saw, what, two kickers, Matt Gay yesterday and Vikings kicker Reichard, like five field goals. If you get that in a slate like today, I mean, you very well could see them at captain. So what's your take on that? How many teams do you need to play to mix in some kicker captains?

Probably not opposed to it because we want, like you kind of opened up the show talking about some of these like mid tier captain builds, but there's not a lot of mid tier guys to put in those, in those builds.

So, I mean, what do you need from a kicker captain team, uh, afford to to win like you need kind of similar to if you're you know playing the the four hundred dollar punt in the flex you need those studs to have really good games but not fully explode and you need four to five field goals probably from from the kicker and then you're going to need those other expensive guys in the flex could that happen on the slate uh You need the punts to suck too.

The lands, all those guys down below not to do anything. So you need the punts to not do anything. You need the studs to get there but not fully explode for a massive, massive number. Yeah, I don't think I'm opposed to it. Again, if I built my teams and I ended up with some kicker captain tonight, I'm good with it. And these are guys that are fine. Let's go to the box scores, right?

When you're looking at the box score, when they're kicking four or five field goals, that clearly means the offenses aren't scoring the touchdowns, which then limits the full upside that these studs do have.

I can talk myself yeah full two ten point games so far like you know double digits add on a couple more we're in that eighteen range um Carlson he definitely has a big leg has a thirteen fantasy point game uh week was that week two against the Ravens three for three in that game so yeah I could I could potentially do it on the slate where we're lacking value all around and I don't love captain outside of the studs on the slate, right?

Like the- It's one per two percent they're projected for. You have four percent and you're double the field. We're not saying go all in. I like them in terms of the defenses, though. It's like this is a game people aren't going to want to play defense. And that's when I might have a little like I typically don't love defense. But on a slate where we don't have value, most people are going to look at this as an offensive game.

We have a big total sitting at forty eight and a half, forty nine. You know, I would be a little more prone to playing defenses today for that reason. Like everyone's viewing this as a high scoring game. But we don't have the value, and we know what happens with defense. It's literally maybe just like one play. So I'm not saying I love the defenses, but I'd be a little more prone to playing them today than I typically am, if that makes sense.

Yeah, agree. They're a way to get different and chalkier stuff. All right, let's pull up FanDuel. I'm going to kind of do this on the fly and see if anything stands out. Noah Phan, Jahan Dotson, higher price than Tyler Pitts. Yeah, so that is, where is Noah Phan? Noah Phan's four eight. Tyler Pitts, four, six. Yeah, Tyler Pitts. Yeah, four, six. That's appealing. The first thing I sorted by price, Alvin Kamara, $9,400. I don't know how in the world.

You click that. How do you click that? Like, what's the case for Kamara on FanDuel at ninety four? Is there one? He's playing seventy percent of snaps instead of forty five. Like just the the projected just because we haven't seen this without a Chan really yet. He did get hurt, but maybe just everyone's wrong and the Saints completely switch it up week four and he's their workhorse. Go get it, Kamara. I don't see that happening, but that's that's the case.

There's unknowns what the Saints are going to do.

John Johnson $8,600 at least the case there is he can catch two touchdowns like he's on like yeah I'd rather than tomorrow but so I mean he'd have to have the he'd have to have the two two ken how miller is at $7,400 these are some oh tough tough clicks uh our guy pitts $7,000 I like the the valet price tag that sounds out nice $7,000 Yeah, I mean, it's a similar slate to DraftKings in the sense of value is bad.

It's going to condense around Bryce Lance at $2,800. Tyler Pitts is $4,600. The kickers are definitely going to get some ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. If Fant misses, Delp at sixteen hundred will be a little higher owned. I'm seeing Wagner all the way down as a punt at $1,000. It's going to be another kind of stars and scrubsStars and ScrubsStars and scrubs is a DFS lineup structure where you spend heavily on several expensive players and fill other roster spots with low-salary players. The cheap players free up salary for the stars; they are not necessarily bad players.Compare the points you gain by upgrading to a star with the points you sacrifice at the cheap spot. Check whether both players still fit your lineup's scoring scenario.Full explanation ↗ and people are going to be fine if they get two from a complete punt because people are going to just jam in shock.

And we need to sort this late by projection. And you take the top four highest guys, Bijan, London, Shuck, Olave, and Penix. I couldn't even say the top four really. Bijan, London, Olave, and Shuck. Like you have a huge drop off when you get to the fifth highest in terms of projection. And it astronomically falls off. So it's really hard to see like at least two of those four not being in the optimal today in one way or another.

Any interest in Penix MVP on FanDuel without the full point PPR? He's $11,600, but I think he could make make the case for it on FanDuel opposed to DK. Yeah, I mean, his price is a little better, too, in the sense of let me just see this quick. Yeah, there's a little more gap, I guess, on FanDuel to DraftKings. So I'd be fine with it.

It's mainly, I think, just because of how highly owned Shuck and Bijan will be, like even more so on FanDuel, that it's just like the ultra leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ pivot.

Um like Bijan might be forty five fifty percent at mvp so and that's the case Penix leverages that off the most half point ppr you'd rather that because of trach London catches ten balls it goes a lot farther on DraftKings and fandu so yeah I think the more I think about it it's a way to get different yeah I kind of like that I kind of like them a little bit they're going to be low a low owned quarterback mvp on FanDuel, I think is always going to be somewhat interesting.

And this would have been the case on that Case Keenum slate. I don't know if he was the, was he the highest, I think it was the highest scoring right on the slate. And I can't imagine anyone played him up top, had to be low on.

So I definitely have some interest in him on FanDuel, just in that MVP spotShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗, in the flex too, but like I would not play him in captain on DK, but I would play him MVP on on FanDuel. Any final thoughts before we get out of here? I mean, it's a good game. One and a half points spread, division, both teams one and two, but have shown some life. And again, the Saints could easily be two and one. That Lions game week one was...

Was a good one. So I wouldn't build until Noah Fant injury news. I mean, it's weird to say in twenty twenty six, but any showdownShowdown (Captain and MVP)NFL Showdown lets you select players from one football game, including eligible quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends, kickers and team defenses. Your Captain or MVP receives the contest's scoring multiplier.Compare complete lineups with different players in the multiplier slot. Leaving salary unused can reduce duplication, but do not sacrifice meaningful scoring potential just to make your lineup unusual.Full explanation ↗ slate, one little piece of news changes a lot, especially when we're we're debating playing value with guys projected for one point like a Charlie Wagner and stuff. So when that's the case, then any piece of news matters. So, yes, stick around for it. We'll have all of our content up, of course. And good luck. Yeah, good luck to everyone.

Let's finish out week four on a strong note and then make sure to tune in next week for all our shows, all our content. Appreciate the support. Good luck. Let's get those Ship It Nation logos to the top of leaderboards.