UFC DFS Projections, Tools, and Advice to Help You Win

A card is one UFC event, a numbered pay-per-view or a Fight Night, and the DraftKings contests for it are built from the fights on that event. There is usually one card a week, and it’s the slate our UFC projections are built around.

All week. Our data team updates projections as weigh-ins, late replacements, canceled fights and betting line moves come in, and this page refreshes with the latest numbers every 10 minutes. Late changes matter in UFC DFS, since a fighter who misses weight or a bout that falls off the card can shift the whole slate. Next week’s projections go up shortly after DraftKings releases salaries for the card.

Every plan includes DraftKings projections and ownership for each week’s UFC card, whether it’s a numbered event or a Fight Night. Our UFC projections and ownership are DraftKings only.

Partly. This page shows free projections and points-per-dollar for the 10 highest-priced fighters on the card. Members get projections and ownership for every fighter, plus The Stone 2.0, where you can build lineups by hand or hit Optimize and save your lineups.

DraftKings UFC classic contests have you pick six fighters under a $50,000 salary cap. Fighters earn 0.2 points for every strike they land and another 0.2 when it’s a significant strike, 5 points for each takedown or reversal, 10 points for a knockdown, and 0.03 points for every second of control time. The winner also gets a bonus that is biggest for an early finish. That makes high-volume strikers and wrestlers valuable even when a fight goes the distance, while a fighter who loses still scores for what he landed.

Usually not. DraftKings allows it, but only one of them can win, and the win bonus is where most of the points are, so two fighters from one fight hold down your lineup’s ceiling. Most tournament players take one side of each fight and use the rest of the card to fill out the lineup. Our guide to DFS correlation explains how the pieces of a lineup work together.

Cash games, such as 50/50s, double-ups and head-to-heads, pay roughly the top half of the field, so you build for a safe floor with fighters who are likely to win and score. GPPs, short for guaranteed prize pools, are tournaments that pay around the top 20 to 25 percent of the field, with most of the money at the very top. There you build for ceiling, chase early finishes and use ownership to make your lineup different from the field. Slate Station gives core plays for both.

Because the DraftKings win bonus shrinks the longer a fight goes: 90 points for a first-round win, 70 for the second round, 45 for the third, 40 for the fourth or fifth, and 30 for a decision, plus 25 more for a win in 60 seconds or less. A fighter who wins with a round-one finish can outscore a decision winner who landed far more strikes. That’s why our experts weigh finish upside, not just who is likely to win, and our tier rankings in Slate Station show who to build around.

Yes, members can sort, filter and export our full MMA projections, including ownership, as a CSV file. The Stone 2.0 also saves your lineups as upload-ready CSV files for DraftKings. The free preview on this page is view-only.

The MMA Plan is $199 a year, which works out to $17 a month, or $29 billed monthly. MMA + Optimizer adds the SaberSim Optimizer for $299 a year ($25 a month) or $49 billed monthly. All-Access + Optimizer covers all eight sports, starting at $948 a year ($79 a month) or $99 billed monthly with 100 lineup builds, and Starter and Ultimate offer more builds. Plans renew automatically at the end of each term, and you can cancel anytime, effective at the end of your current term. See every MMA plan.