Shows / MMA/ Thursday, November 5, 2026
From the archive. This breakdown is for the Thursday, November 5 MMA slate. Salaries, weather and picks were for that day.
Zach Trivett and Kyle Marley break down a 14-fight slate with 12 fights expected to finish. Austin Bashi ($9,600) is the preferred expensive wrestler, although his salary is an estimate pending pricing. Murtazali Magomedov ($8,200) is a starting point for builds because his wrestling and early aggression offer more scoring upside than Jose Delano. Thomas Petersen's wrestling makes his fight another priority, with Gabriel Lorenco offering early knockout upside.
Mantas Kondratavicius anchors the favorite fight to target, but Andre Petroski's wrestling makes both sides appealing; the exposure call is at least 30% Petroski. Cheap underdogs with big scores in wins help fund expensive favorites. The hosts disagree on the main-event winner, with Johnny Walker's leg kicks opposed by Waldo Cortes-Acosta's advantages later. Tournament builds avoid fight stacks, while stacking the main event looks likely in cash games.
| Play | Call | The Take | At |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAY UP | Preferred expensive wrestler over the other top-priced options because he has a full camp and repeat-takedown upside against a short-notice debutant, with $9,600 only an estimated salary. | 5:25 | |
| VALUE | The $7,300 salary opens access to Bashi and other expensive favorites, although the discussion was split on exposure if his ownership rises. | 9:15 | |
| OVERWEIGHT | Likely to be overlooked enough to justify a slight overweight position, with an early knockout needed to make the expensive salary work. | 10:05 | |
| PAY UP | Her first-round and submission upside justify consideration at the expensive end, though Bashi remains the preferred spend. | 13:06 | |
| The discussion was split between excluding her and retaining small exposure in portfolios of 50-plus lineups because a knockout win could make her optimal. | 13:06 | ||
| UNDERWEIGHT | Excluded from the limited-lineup approach, with interest only floated for 150 lineups because a competitive decision probably would not score enough. | 15:39 | |
| OVERWEIGHT | The discussion was split between limited-lineup avoidance and a slight overweight position against projected ownership around 20%, with Bashi preferred if salary permits. | 17:05 | |
| VALUE | Some exposure is warranted at $8,000 in a fight expected to finish, although Magomedov is preferred and a Delano win could miss the optimal lineup. | 21:23 | |
| FADE | Excluded because his low-volume striking and limited finishing threat compare poorly with other underdogs' scoring ceilings. | 22:33 | |
| PAY UP | The $8,800 salary offers a low-owned pivot from Cortes-Acosta with submission upside, although the discussion was split on how reliably she will wrestle. | 24:35 |
All systems go. Clear for lift off. What's going on, everybody? Welcome back to the weekly MMA show. We have UFC Fight Night at the Meta Apex, five p.m. Eastern this Saturday. Hope everybody's having a great week. Hope you had a profitable week last week. I'll throw it to you right away. We usually don't talk about last week's card much, but the stand up from Dan Mergliata.
I don't know if you're watching the Moicano Tom Nolan live or if you saw a replay, if you didn't have anything or if you didn't really see it. You don't need to comment, but definitely controversial last week in the main event. But how are we doing today and the thoughts on that? Good. Yeah, I actually didn't even see it. I heard a lot about it. But yeah, I didn't even see it.
I might have seen a clip on Twitter, but not enough to give any thoughts on it. That's fair. If you didn't watch the fight. It's hard to comment on a stand-up. But, yeah, I mean, everyone felt very strongly about it. I mean, I guess I did, too. Like, the back in a body triangle is a very dominant position. The fighter should have to get out of that. With that being said, it's not like Moikano was doing anything, landing any damage.
But, yeah, I guess when you're in mount or you're that deep, Can you pull him off? Jelton Almeida, even though when he wasn't doing anything in mount, it's pretty hard to remove a fighter from a position that dominant. So definitely changed the whole fight. My kind of gets clipped after Tom Nolan takes over from there. So, yeah, it's sad to see it, I guess, go down that way. But Tom Nolan was the better fighter. Last Sunday, pretty solid four-team fight card.
You going to say something, Marley? Yeah, yeah. I would say in general, I don't really like stand-ups, especially, you know, for the fighters. But I do think that main event fighters should be held to a different standard where they need to make the fight a little bit more exciting. People are paying a lot of money to be there seeing them fight, you know what I mean? So I don't think that they should be allowed to just – stay in boring dominant positions.
But in general, I think it should be just a rule. Either we stand them up or we don't stand them up type of thing. Yeah, that's the I always talk about the VarianceIn MMA DFS, one finish can abruptly end a fighter's scoring opportunities. Even a strong favorite can lose early, while a winning fighter's score can vary substantially with fight length and how the win happens.Track results by contest type and slate, and review opportunity separately from touchdowns or other rare scoring events. Entering the same lineup in ten contests does not give you ten independent performance samples. If you build with an optimizer, its randomness setting nudges projections up or down on each build, so your lineups spread across different players instead of repeating the same top projections.Read the full definition of Variance in MMA. There's variance inside variance inside variance. Not only four ounce gloves. Anyone can get a flash knockout or tear their ACL or whatever. But then if you do get the person right, they need to score enough. Then if they score enough, you need the judges to get it right.
Then you also need the refs. To make the right call. And then you also need the fighters and a nut shot or an eye poke to continue fighting and not quit. Uh, so much just goes into it, but Hey, that's why I embrace the variance, embrace the volatility, try and win as much money, uh, to first place when you win and not dupe with everyone else. It's kind of my thought process. And we have a good card for that. Fourteen fights.
Uh, this, uh, bashy Calderon fight was added, uh, uh yesterday I believe it was so awesome that we get fourteen now uh twelve of the fourteen fights are expected to finish the only two women's fights are the ones that aren't so yeah I think every fight is fadable I will not be making any rule and I think we're in for a good uh high uh high violence week so what are your thoughts before we go fight by fight uh definitely not my favorite card from like a fan standpoint or from watching that uh like eight hours worth of fights but I do think it's a decent DFS card, and if I'm live, that's going to make it more exciting.
And I'm trying to ride Rio's momentum, man, coming off a million-dollar win last week, and I'm feeling good for him, so I feel like my time's coming soon. Maybe this is the card. Yeah, I like it. Yeah, shout-out to the man, Hebrew Cheat. Also a crusher in MMA, crusher in all DFS sports, but a smooth million for the man who is very well-deserving of that. All right, we are going to go bottom to top.
Like always, all we ask is the like button and subscribe button. Helps us out a ton. Again, this fight was placed on the card yesterday, I believe. Maybe Tuesday night, but I think it was yesterday. It was supposed to be Austin Bashe versus Lucas Brennan, I believe. Out is Brennan with an injury in steps. Calderon making his UFC debut. Minus six-oh-five Bashe, plus four-fifty-four Calderon. Only two props I see. Minus two-sixty inside the distance. Under two-and-a-half at minus two-hundred.
And under two and a half open, plus one, twenty-eight. So, again, this line's very new. It doesn't take too much to move the line that much, but it is something worth noting. For me, it's Bashir Pass. I'm going to pretend Bashir is $9,600 because we have a $9,700 who's a slightly bigger favorite than we have a $9,500 who's less. So I think it's going to slot right in. $9,600, $6,600.
It's Bashir Pass for me, a primary wrestler with the full camp against someone on day's notice in their UFC debut. And I do have quite a bit of interest in bashy too. His upside is unmasked with this wrestling heavy game plan. So yeah, bash your past. What are you doing in this one? Yeah, I didn't look into Calderon yet. I watched a little bit of highlights. I looked at his record. I take it that he's a grappler taking the fight on short notice.
And the line says that Bashy should win. I like Bashy's style in general. He's a good grappler, good wrestler himself. So I think he's the one that can dictate where the fight takes place. So, yeah, I agree. Bashy or pass. And I would imagine I would like him at $9,600. And that's going to take away the like that I would have for who's at ninety seven. Sakyong Ko or whatever his name is. I like Bashy more than him.
If Bashy was taking it on short notice, maybe I wouldn't love it as much, but I expect his cardio to be fine. And if he wants to land ten TakedownsTakedowns are successful wrestling moves that bring a standing opponent to the mat and establish a controlling position. In MMA DFS, you earn fantasy points for officially credited takedowns landed, not failed attempts.Watch whether your fighter actually chooses to wrestle against similar opponents. Strong takedown statistics do not help your lineup if the fighter spends this matchup trading punches.Read the full definition of Takedowns in this fight, I think he could do that. I agree. How much bashy do you think you'd have relative? Like when you're playing $9,600, you're going to need dogs on this card. There's only two mid-tier fights. Well, they are pretty strong since they're both expected to finish.
You're going to be having a dumpster dive in that low $7,000 range. And there is plenty of solid upside fighters. Deagley, Silva. I mean, Nina and Nakamura are cheaper with still some upside. Elijah Smith, Waldo. So how much do you think you'll really get to Bashi at $9,600 if you had to guess? So I don't feel good about dogs on this card, but I think that there are a handful of dogs who, if they win, would score well.
So I think I'm just kind of taking shots on that. I don't really think that they will win, but let's throw them into lineups just in case. And if they do, that gets me up to Bashi. So I would imagine. I mean, I usually can afford $9,600. It's it's it's whether I want to pay the ninety five or ninety six or ninety four, whoever's up there. And I like him more than Nina and I like him more than Coe.
So I think I could probably get a decent amount of him. But I have to go and watch Calderon's fights and see how good this kid actually is. Kind of figure out how I think the fight plays out. But I just looked at this fight like thirty minutes ago. Yeah, no, I mean, I definitely like more. I do not like Coe. I like him more than Nina. I like him more than Nakamura. Just the wrestling upside.
And it's supposed to finish at minus two sixty will lead me to jamming in Bashy and getting some underdogs or trying to get some underdogs right in the right combination. All right, let's keep it rolling. Next fight on the card. We got Jose Sosa minus two thirty. Johnny Parsons plus one ninety three minus one seventy for this fight to finish. Sosa plus one oh five inside the distance. Parsons plus three fifty. Good amount of line movement in this one. Sosa open minus one fifty five.
Got as low as... It looks like mine is two sixty five and then some buyback on the Parsons side. But a good size favorite is so what are you doing in this one? $8,900 and $7,300. This is the one I want to target. I just think that it's going to be a fun striking match. Both guys want to strike.
I think Parsons – we haven't seen Parsons in like three, three and a half years, so it's kind of difficult to know what to expect from him. But he is a brawler who will come out aggressive and strike at a high pace, and I think that could work for him or against him. But either way, I think it helps out DFS. Souza is a striker as well. I'd say he's more technical, more – More dangerous long term, but just the aggressiveness from Parsons.
I like that first round danger from him. So I think either way, man, we're going to get a Round One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish from Parsons where he breaks the SlateIn MMA DFS, a slate usually covers the eligible bouts from one fight card. It can include preliminary bouts as well as the main card, so the headline fights are not your only possible source of fighters.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. Or if he doesn't get the first round knockout, I would imagine after three and a half years away from the sport, he starts to slow down, especially coming out aggressive. And I think Souza can get a knockout of his own. But at $8,900, I really not. I'm not high on his volume.
I don't expect him to wrestle, so I don't know if it's going to be too late if it's not a first-round finish for Souza to get the knockout. But I do think that Johnny Parsons' aggressiveness could also lead to a Souza first-round knockout, and this could just be a good DFS fight to target either way.
I'm going in on both sides, but I put Parsons as my preferred play because he is just the cheap dumpster dive that could get you up to a bashy or whoever you want to. Yeah, I see it similar. I am a little nervous that Parsons takes some steam. Just looking at who's priced around him. Again, the lower tier is tough. I think he's going to be higher on than Fernandez, Raposo, Grant, Alacana. Money line's fine. Inside the distance is fine.
I think people will see like when he was fighting. I mean, he's been away from the cage for a little while, like you said. When he did fight, though, high pace, definitely a finisher and can put up big scores when he wins. So I think that'll keep Sosa's OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership in check and maybe a little lower than most people think. And Parson maybe get a little seam. Sosa's round one prop plus three twenty five. It's twenty three and a half percent. Definitely not great for his range.
But at ownership, I do think he gets overlooked a bit. I'll probably end up a little overweight, so you can use him in chalkier lineups. Parsons may be around the field, maybe a little underweight if he does catch steam, mainly due to the money line movement against him. But I do think if he wins, he has a lot higher ceiling than most of the other underdogs in his range.
And if I'm wrong about the ownership steam, then I would definitely like Parsons more than I'm saying right now. So I do think a solid fight. I'll probably be hoping... Souza wins, but he will need a knockout in the first two rounds, more than likely to be optimal. All right, we'll keep rolling. Next fight on the card. We have Nina. I'm just going to say Nina M. Taking on Priscilla Cachoeira. Nina minus five ten. Cachoeira plus three ninety four.
Minus four hundred for this fight to finish. Nina minus two ten inside the distance. Cachoeira plus four hundred. Nina round one plus one fifty. So I guess that kind of just shows we talked about Bashu. We don't have inside the distance prop. Or we don't have his round one prop right now, but a six hundred difference between Nina and Sosa, but plus one fifty versus plus three twenty five. A decent bit difference in terms of terms of the round one prop.
Priscilla, bad TakedownsTakedowns are successful wrestling moves that bring a standing opponent to the mat and establish a controlling position. In MMA DFS, you earn fantasy points for officially credited takedowns landed, not failed attempts.Watch whether your fighter actually chooses to wrestle against similar opponents. Strong takedown statistics do not help your lineup if the fighter spends this matchup trading punches.Read the full definition of Takedowns defense. Nina, probably better everywhere. I think she should wrestle early, though. Do you think she does that? And do you think she gets a submission if if she can get her to the mat? Yeah, I think she can and really should get her a submission if she's able to get the fight to the ground. The only powers, I mean, the only advantages I give Cachoeira would be power and aggressiveness.
She's one of those underdogs who could be a SlateIn MMA DFS, a slate usually covers the eligible bouts from one fight card. It can include preliminary bouts as well as the main card, so the headline fights are not your only possible source of fighters.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate breaker if she were to win because it would probably be a Round One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish, but I'm just not relying on really women in general to get first round knockouts, but catch aware. I think her time has come to an end. Uh, this is a fight. The U S FC wants to showcase Mila. And I think she's better everywhere other than the power and aggressiveness. And after.
The first two, three minutes of this fight, I think it's going to be pretty easy for her. And if she can get the fight to the ground in the first minute, it's probably smooth sailing and she gets a submission at some point. I think she could get a ground and pound finish. I think if the fight were to get extended, she could even get maybe a...
A TKO on the feet just because catch where it could be gassed and super sloppy at that point. I think her last, her last knockout was like a need of the body. It was pretty, it was pretty nice. I could see something like that happening too. But yeah, for me, it's going to be Milosevic or pass. Usually catch where is somebody I'm interested in at $6,700, but I think I'm just done playing catch where at this point. Yeah, I can't blame you.
I initially wrote up that I was going to probably be overweight. And it really comes down to she's plus three ninety four money line and plus four hundred inside the distance. That is just one book, though. Most other books plus six hundred plus five twenty five plus six fifty. So that's just the main book I look at. Bet online is very bullish there. If she wins, she's probably going to be optimal and she's probably going to be like ten percent. So I don't know if X-ing her out.
Fifty plus teams. I probably wouldn't do that. Twenty or less, though. Yeah, she probably loses. You probably just fade it and say eight percent are paying the RakeRake is the share of entry fees the site keeps as its fee instead of paying it out as prizes. It is the gap between total entry fees and the total prize pool.Compare rake between contests you would enter anyway. A slightly higher rake can be worth it in a softer field, but when the fields look similar, take the contest that keeps less.Read the full definition of Rake. I prefer Bashy over Nina, but I think the field will as well. And anyone that's minus one or plus one fifty in round one, minus two ten inside the distance. I'm never going to say too many bad things about her. She's also taken a good bit of money.
Open minus three fifty was minus four fifty early in the week. Now minus five ten. She has a lot going for her for sure. Just mainly the price tag. I'm glad this fight's back-to-back because I want you to compare this fight to the last. Kichiro Nakamura, excuse me, minus-three-sixty, taking on Ali Schmidt, plus-two-ninety-one, minus-three-twenty-five for this fight to finish. Nakamura, minus-two-twenty-five inside the distance. Schmidt, plus-five-seventy-five. Nakamura, round one, plus-one-fifty.
Minus two hundred Nakamura open inside the distance now minus two twenty five so yeah I want you to compare can you hear that pounding by the way uh now that you mentioned I might have heard something but not anything that I would have noticed all right um minus yeah so a little better inside the distance prop for Nakamura one hundred less but a decent bit worse money line than Nina so compare these two and I see you have a three-star in both so you might not even have that much of either Yeah, I really don't have too much interest in this fight either.
I just think that Schmidt isn't really a UFC caliber fighter. I think he could compete just at an at-range, fifteen-minute striking battle. I think Schmidt is in play, but that probably doesn't even do us any good.
In DFS I think it would just take away from Nakamura Nakamura is an exciting striker he's quick he's got fun knees he's got a good left hand but man if you watch this guy fight it's like he's got a little nub for a right hand he just throws it out there as just a little as just a distraction basically but it is doing absolutely nothing so he's just got a left hand and then two legs that you got to worry about eventually that's going to catch up to him and UFC fighters are going to make him pay but Schmidt's not that guy.
I think I just want to look at Nakamura as let me FadeTo fade a player is to leave him out of your lineups on purpose, usually because you expect him to be popular or you think he is a poor play.Fade with a reason, not a feeling. If you can't say why a popular player will disappoint, you're probably just giving away points.Read the full definition of Fade him when he's expensive at $9,400. He kind of needs a Round One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish. He's coming off, I think, a third round knockout had a not had a knockdown and he scored like seventy something points, like seventy three point seventy three points. I'm not interested in that at $9,400. I think the first round knockouts in play. It doesn't lock him on Optimal LineupAn optimal lineup is a legal roster that maximizes fantasy points under the salary cap and roster rules. After games, it uses actual scores; before games, a projected optimal uses estimated scores and any lineup restrictions you set.When reviewing an optimal, replace its most surprising scorer with a realistic pregame alternative. Check whether the remaining construction still offered a credible path to winning your contest.Read the full definition of Optimal Lineup though.
So I think I'm just going to pass on Nakamura with limited lineups. I'd be more interested if I was doing MME. Same with Schmidt. Maybe I'd be interested if I was doing a hundred and fifty lines, but I'm just going to X out Schmidt. And then Nakamura would just be one of those types, like a sixth in my lineup. If I am starting with underdogs and I just got money to spend, I'd be okay with Nakamura.
But the more I talk about it, the less I like it. And it's the minus three, twenty five inside the distance that sold me on the three star. I think this is more of a two star in my mind because I'm just not sold on Nakamura, dude. If he like if I were to fight Nakamura, I don't think he can knock me out with that. That right hand he's got. So I just think that.
I'm a long-term Nakamura fate if he's going to be $9,000 plus. Yeah. And I, I wrote this up too. Like, I just think Ali Schmidt's that bad. He stepped in on short notice, I believe against Rahiki or something. And that's why they gave him a guaranteed second fight. I knocked out in the first. So I don't think Schmidt's very good. And I don't know how much we're going to see Nakamura over minus three hundred in the UFC. I think it's mainly matchup.
Plus one fifty in round one, those forty percent now at $9,400, maybe not all first round wins will be optimal. But if you know you're going to first round finish and I do think Nakamura is probably somewhere around twenty percent at $9,400. He's in a loaded range. I mean, forty percent if he's twenty percent in his round one win equity is forty percent. Just naturally, I think I'll have to end up.
Slightly overweight and allows me to get different elsewhere. But I don't love lineups that leave two hundred and could get up to Baschi. It's a little concerning for me because in a vacuum, I like Baschi quite a bit more, but it's still MMA. I could totally be wrong. Baschi could get a submission and a minute and four seconds after one TakedownsTakedowns are successful wrestling moves that bring a standing opponent to the mat and establish a controlling position. In MMA DFS, you earn fantasy points for officially credited takedowns landed, not failed attempts.Watch whether your fighter actually chooses to wrestle against similar opponents. Strong takedown statistics do not help your lineup if the fighter spends this matchup trading punches.Read the full definition of Takedowns, which is the nut low outcome. And then all of these guys beat them. So yeah. Any final thoughts? Yeah.
You asked me to compare that in the meal of seven. I like the girls on both sides actually more. Cause I would imagine Nakamura being a hundred cheaper catches a little bit more OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership.
So I like, paying that extra hundred dollars just for less ownership and then catch if I told you it wouldn't what if I told you it wouldn't because I I'm not quite quite sure since nina's minus five ten money line and nakamura is minus three fifteen I think I think that'll sway people yeah um I mean if it were even I would still like not uh nina but yeah I would think ownership would be what sways me the most I just like bashing more than both of them Yeah.
I definitely like bashing more too. And you said Priscilla over Ali Schmidt, if picking a dog. Yeah. Just cause she's cheaper. And I think like pound for pound, she probably has more of a first round knockout chance. Yeah, I agree with that for sure. All right, let's keep it rolling. Two mid-tier fights. This is the closest priced. And you can notice the two hundred cheaper fighter in Jose Delano. Now the favorite minus one eighteen.
Murtali Magomedov plus one oh one minus one fifty for this fight to finish. The slight underdog in Magomedov plus one seventy inside the distance. Delano plus two thirty five. Looking at where this line went, Delano opened plus one fifty seven now minus one eighteen, which is a decent bit of money and especially just first looks. Anyone that ends in O.V. Magomedov and undefeated at eleven and oh, now the dog.
I think that shows people like this Delano guy or they absolutely think Magomedov is a fraud. Could be a combination of both. Regardless, I'm going to be playing this fight and I see you are as well with the five star. $8,200 $8,000 is a great price, but break it down. Yeah, my favorite fight on the card from a watching purpose.
I don't know about DFS purpose, but from a watching purpose and a prospect purpose, they're putting two solid prospects against each other where it's kind of a shame that one of them has to take a loss. But it's also cool that we get to see how good the winner is. But yeah, I give the slight edge, especially DFS wise to Magomedov. He is the more explosive striker. He's got some solid knees. He'll blitz in with some combos, with some strikes.
But just explosiveness would be his only striking edge. I think Delano is the better overall striker. But Magomedov is the better wrestler, the more aggressive wrestler. And I think... If anyone were to dominate this fight in round one, I think it's Magomedov. After round one, I think it could maybe shift more into Delano's favor. But DFS, that might not help us as much. So I do like Magomedov as a preferred play. And he is the reason I have it as a five-star.
I also think his aggression could help out Delano. But I think Delano is the more experienced, more well-rounded fighter. And Magomedov is just the more aggressive. More explosive, more dangerous fighter early who has the higher ceiling in DFS. And if he's the underdog at $8,200, that probably hurts his OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership just a little bit. I mean, in a fight, people are going to be excited about he'll still be high on.
But if it takes him down seven, eight percent from what it would have if he were the favorite, I'm cool with that. So Magomed up going to be one of my highest on place. I love it. Everything you said, I agree with. I think the upside on Magomedov is greater. He's two hundred more as a slight underdog. So I'm hoping ownership reflects that or at least is very similar.
I think, yeah, there's past where Delano wins and isn't optimal as a striker having to fight off TakedownsTakedowns are successful wrestling moves that bring a standing opponent to the mat and establish a controlling position. In MMA DFS, you earn fantasy points for officially credited takedowns landed, not failed attempts.Watch whether your fighter actually chooses to wrestle against similar opponents. Strong takedown statistics do not help your lineup if the fighter spends this matchup trading punches.Read the full definition of Takedowns, whereas it's harder for me to see Magomedov winning. And not being optimal. Better inside the distance prop, better around one prop. If someone were to win by submission, which by any method of finish, Delano or Magomedov, Magomedov by subs the best at plus-two-seventy-five, whereas knockout plus-four-hundred Delano, plus-seven-hundred by sub for Delano, plus-five-twenty-five by KO for Magomedov. So I agree with everything you said.
If someone's going to dominate it, Magomedov – If someone's going to look minus $1,000, I think it's more likely Magomedov that looks that than I do Delano. So we're on the same side there. Magomedov, my preferred play. We'll have some Delano, though, obviously. $8,000. And this fight's minus one fifty to finish. All right. We'll keep it rolling. Next fight on the card. We have... Let me scroll up quick. Sorry.
Marcus Digle minus two thirty two taking on Mitch Raposo plus one ninety four minus one thirty for this fight to finish. Digle plus one forty inside the distance. Raposo plus three seventy five. Talking props. We have Digle by KO plus two eighty five. Him by sub plus four fifty and he opened plus five twenty five by sub. So some people interested in the submission prop.
It looks like the biggest gap probably like riposto's a striker so I guess where he could look as the biggest favorite is on the mat not sure it plays out there as much as I'd want at $9,000 but I also think OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership will be relatively low uh break down this fight and how do these two compare to others in the range Yeah, I really don't care too much for this fight. It's really favor or pass for me.
I think Raposo is just like, okay at everything. Like, I don't even know if he is a striker. I think the best he's looked was with his wrestling, but that was just one fight. And he might even lost that fight. And I think the fights he's won, he probably should have lost also. He's just a low volume striker. Who's not very dangerous. And he's, can wrestle a little bit, but he's not very dangerous on the ground either. So I'm going to X out Raposo.
Hope these other high ceiling underdogs come through instead. And Degley's the side for me. I think he's just better everywhere. I think he's the more slicker, more dangerous striker. I think he's the better wrestler, more dangerous grappler. He's just got less experience. He's making the UFC walk for the first time. Who knows what that'll do to him. But I agree with this line. If not, I think it's, too low.
I mean, just watching these guys skill for skill, I would rather bet the favorite over betting the underdog in this fight. So it's going to be Degler pass for me. I just don't know how much he scores. I don't really trust him to be super high volume. I don't think that he wrestles a bunch. So I kind of think he might be finished or bust at $9,000. So I probably take that into account when I start building. Yeah, which plus one forty is forty one percent.
But by no means is all of his wins or finish wins going to be optimal over two and a half slightly favored at minus one twenty five. If this fight gets out of the first two rounds, it's a little harder at $9,000 to get there unless he is wrestling heavy, which there's always an out or just absolutely beating the brakes off of him. But Raposo goes to decision. That's that's pretty common for him. So I think more than likely.
This fight busts and DeGlay wins the decision, but ownership will be relatively low on both sides. Next fight on the card, one of the first of two fights expected to go the distance. Karina Silva minus two twenty eight. Gabriel Fernandez plus one ninety one plus one twenty for this fight to finish. Silva plus one eighty five inside the distance. Fernandez plus four seventy five. I mean, another one where the biggest gap is if Silva gets it on the mat.
Fernandez, the striker, Silva can wrestle a solid grappler. It doesn't look great on the stone, but I mean, man, if you're Silva, you just come out, shoot a TakedownsTakedowns are successful wrestling moves that bring a standing opponent to the mat and establish a controlling position. In MMA DFS, you earn fantasy points for officially credited takedowns landed, not failed attempts.Watch whether your fighter actually chooses to wrestle against similar opponents. Strong takedown statistics do not help your lineup if the fighter spends this matchup trading punches.Read the full definition of Takedowns within the first minute, and then from there can set everything up. So I'm going to have some at $8,800, also one hundred more than Waldo. And spoiler alert, I am on the Johnny Walker side. So I'm looking for pivots in that Waldo range.
So, yeah, I'm naturally going to have a good amount of Silva, I think. Plus one eighty five inside the distance should wrestle pretty low OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. Are you on the same page? Yeah, yeah, I do like Silva. I just think she's the more dangerous fighter really everywhere. I think she's even the more dangerous striker in this one, but I think The path to victory for Fernandez would just be to point fight for fifteen minutes.
I think she's a live underdog at $7,400, but she's more playing for like sixty to eighty points where these other underdogs who we have talked about and we'll talk about maybe less live to win, but more way more alive to score one hundred plus points if they do win. So that's more what I'm targeting rather than the live and scoring ten X or less. So I'm not going to be too high on Fernandez. If I got to her, it would be because I'm making a lineup.
I really love it. And the sixth spot shows $7,400 or less. And I just click on her for that reason. That'd be the only way I click on her. But I think Silva does have a big edge once this fight gets to the ground. I just don't trust her to wrestle. I trust her to be a good, dangerous grappler. I just don't trust her to wrestle to get it to the ground where she needs to get to grapple.
So at $8,800, I'm not going to be too heavy on her, but I definitely wouldn't be asking out a fighter like Silva. She's alive for submission in any round. But at $8,800, I would imagine we need it in the first or second round because I don't think that she is a rinse and repeat type of wrestler at all. You're muted. Donkey, sorry.
I was messing with the Slate Station over here because I initially didn't have really any Fernandez love, but the more I'm looking at it, Like, I don't like too many dogs down below. Like, why should I like Priscilla Quechua or Ali Schmidt more than Fernandez? Like, plus, one-eighty-six money line is actually solid. And if I think seventy could be enough in a win, I think it's just foolish. And especially because there's only two fights expected to go to decision.
If this is just on the feet, Fernandez lands ninety Significant StrikesSignificant strikes in MMA include all strikes at distance, outside a close grappling hold, plus forceful strikes during that hold or on the ground. For DFS scoring, only landed strikes count, not missed attempts.Compare significant strikes landed per minute with the opponent's absorption rate, then adjust for likely fight duration and wrestling. Treat averages from very short fights or limited samples cautiously.Read the full definition of Significant Strikes or whatever in a loss, scores thirty-eight. That could be enough, especially with so many favorites wins, so... I don't think Priscilla has a FloorIn daily fantasy sports (DFS), a player's floor is an estimate of the low end of their realistic fantasy scoring range. It describes downside, not a guaranteed minimum or their average projected score.Before trusting a floor estimate, check what could change the player's role today: a returning teammate, a minutes restriction, a lineup change or a different game script.Read the full definition of Floor. Ali has a floor. Maybe I think I'm going to move some of that ownership to Fernandez as a floor play. So I'm fine with this fight.
Silva's still my preferred play since I think she has a hundred plus point upside when not many are going to see it that way. But I'm going to give her more Fernandez than I initially thought as a floor. $7,400 play. Yeah, I mean, I like her more than Raposo. I like her more than Schmidt. I like her more than Cachoeira. And then going forward, I like her more than probably Ellen Conner and Turman. But that's about it. For the underdog.
Okay. Yep. Sounds good. We'll keep it moving. I will update that right now. When you talk about this next fight, we are going to, uh, the second of two mid-tier fights, Tom and Thomas Peterson, minus one, one, Gabriel Lorenzo, plus one, forty-five minus two hundred for this fight to finish. Peterson, plus one, forty inside the distance. Lorenzo, plus two, ten. A lot of line movement on this one, too. Multiple things. Thomas Peterson, open, plus one, ninety-three.
Man, let's see when shortly after was plus one thirty two shortly after that was minus one thirty three. The line did not last long at all. So plus one ninety three and took money pretty, pretty or pretty close to right after it opened. And then on the inside, the distance line open minus one thirty to finish now minus two hundred. Peterson and the under has taken a lot. But then you go and look at it round one props. Oh, I guess it flipped.
It was when I did it earlier. Lorenzo had a better round one prop than Peterson, but that has since flipped plus four hundred for Thomas, plus five hundred for Lorenzo. I'll let you break it down. Tough for me to fade this line movement, I think, though. Yeah, I think it's a good DFS fight because it kind of should be wrestler versus striker.
Maybe late in this fight, Peterson could look like more of a striker, but I think Lorenko's best path to victory would just be to keep it on the feet, keep the fight at range, but more so get a Round One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish because I just don't trust his cardio, and I also don't trust his ability to keep the fight standing if Peterson is looking to wrestle, which he should be. If Peterson can land TakedownsTakedowns are successful wrestling moves that bring a standing opponent to the mat and establish a controlling position. In MMA DFS, you earn fantasy points for officially credited takedowns landed, not failed attempts.Watch whether your fighter actually chooses to wrestle against similar opponents. Strong takedown statistics do not help your lineup if the fighter spends this matchup trading punches.Read the full definition of Takedowns, I just don't think that Lorenko has anything to offer off of his back.
And I think Peterson could grind out minutes for however long he needs to, or I think he's live for a ground and pound finish at some point. So I like a big score from either side of this one. I even thought about putting this as a five-star. Just because of style for style. But, I mean, just Peterson in general as a favorite. I just don't think he's a good fighter. I wouldn't really want a five-star Peterson fight. So I think four-star seems more right.
But it is a fight I want to be overweight to. And I really don't have too much of a preference. I put Peterson as my preferred fighter because I think he wrestles and I'm picking him to win. But I don't feel good about it. And Lorenko could knock him out in the first round. So I like Lorenko as one of those high ceiling underdogs. He's a little bit more expensive than the other ones.
But this is a fight I just plan on targeting, looking to have in, I'd say, the majority of my lineups. Yeah, this is a five-star fight for me, I think. Peterson with the wrestler, Larenco with the round one equity. He fades as the fight goes. Larenco, Lorenzo, whatever it is. Him early, which would score well at seven, eight hundred or Peterson in the middle rounds or late or even decision at $8,400.
Through wrestling, but I'd be surprised if Larenko can survive fifteen minutes if Peterson is getting takedowns. Yeah, great fight to target. And yeah, I like the length. I prefer Peterson even mainly because of the line movement, because he's the wrestler. I am worried, though, about OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership. I'm hoping the six hundreds enough where it's pretty similar since dogs are uncomfy on this car. Larenko feels better than most. And if that's the case, again, I like Peterson even more, but it makes sense.
So Ranko is probably the most upside behind Johnny Walker in the $7,000 range. All right, we'll keep it rolling. Next fight on the card. Another big favorite Montas contra vicious taken on Andre Petroski. We have, let me find it right here. Petroski. Where the heck? Oh, there it is. Montas minus three hundred Petroski plus two forty seven minus five hundred for this fight to finish. Montas minus two forty inside the distance. Petroski plus four hundred Montas in round one minus one twenty five.
This one is pretty clear. Montas by KO minus two or two twenty five. Montes by sub plus fourteen hundred Petroski by KO plus twelve hundred Petroski by sub plus five seventy five. No chin Petroski taking on the striker, but it's pretty clear Montes only loss came by submission. Can Petroski get TakedownsTakedowns are successful wrestling moves that bring a standing opponent to the mat and establish a controlling position. In MMA DFS, you earn fantasy points for officially credited takedowns landed, not failed attempts.Watch whether your fighter actually chooses to wrestle against similar opponents. Strong takedown statistics do not help your lineup if the fighter spends this matchup trading punches.Read the full definition of Takedowns and wrestle or is he going to get knocked out? I think he gets knocked out. So I'm going to be on Montes here.
But it is a binary matchup where Montes needs to strike. And if he does, he's probably going to get a knockout because he's just that far that much better than Petroski. But Petroski is not going to be looking to strike. And if he can land takedowns, he could either grind out top control time or lock up a submission. And at $6,900, that's hard to pass up just that path to victory in general. So. Um, five-star fight for me.
I like both sides of it. I am going to be on the favorite, but, um, I'm not going to make a rule for a hundred percent, but it is one of those where I'm looking through my lineups, making sure that I see Montas. And if I don't, I kind of do want to see Petroski. And if I, if I don't see either of them, I'm going to make sure that I'm looking at that lineup thinking, damn, does this make sense? Can this, can this lineup win?
Um, And if I still like it, I'll keep it there. But that's kind of what I do with NFL lineups. Like, well, there's no stack here. Do I still like this type of thing? The lineup still has to make sense. But this is one where I would say this is my favorite fight on the entire card. Yeah. I mean, you can't argue that. Put these odds up on Tuesday. Minus four hundred to finish Tuesday. Now minus five hundred. Montas minus two seventy five.
Now minus three hundred. Montas and the undertaken money. With that said, though, Petroski is definitely my favorite $6,000 fighter ever. And one of my favorites in the lower tier, like plus two, forty seven money lines. Not bad. Montes is going to get money. Almost all Petroski's wins should be optimal. So, yeah, I agree with you.
I wouldn't have one hundred percent just because the path is Montes wins in round two or something, scores ninety five and just others in the upper tier outscore him. It's hard to see Petroski winning and not being optimal. So. Let me just look. Plus two forty seven money line. Twenty eight point eight percent. Pretty much telling me I want at least thirty percent Petroski. And that's definitely going to be above the field.
So, yeah, I guess he's one of my favorite plays on the SlateIn MMA DFS, a slate usually covers the eligible bouts from one fight card. It can include preliminary bouts as well as the main card, so the headline fights are not your only possible source of fighters.Before building, open the contest details and check the included events, scoring period and lock rules. Do not assume two sites offer identical slates just because both call them the main slate.Read the full definition of Slate. I like Montas quite a bit as well. Any bashy team, any co-team can go down to Montas and leave four hundred. He has as much upside as anyone at minus one twenty five in round one. What's up, Anthony? Great to see you. Joe Koldeman here. Yeah, I answered that in chat. Not really sure yet, but I'm glad we did get that news right away. I was hoping he would sit, though.
Marquis, great to see you. I'm excited to see the grand fight. Hey, that's going to come up in... A little bit. I like Davey Grant, too. Forty years old, Davey Grant still getting the job done. Curious to hear Big Marley's take on that one. But first, we got Lucas Fernando taking on Billy Elacana. Fernando, minus-three-thirty-six. Elacana, plus-two-seventy-three. Minus-one-seventy for this fight to finish. Fernando, minus-one-oh-five inside the distance. Elacana, plus-four-hundred. I'm curious to hear your breakdown, but the main thing, like, I look at Deagleite, nine-k, and...
Elijah smith who we haven't talked about yet but soon $9,100 like all three of these fernando smith and digley look like similar plays to me I think OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership will be relatively similar I'm curious here if you have like a strong ranking between them and then yeah what are you going to do with alakana in this one um well let me break down this fight then let's bring the rankings back up I wouldn't listen very well but uh yeah I like Fernando in this fight.
I think that he's just a way better, more dangerous striker. I like his leg kicks. I think he can wear down El Cana and then land some powerful shots and win by TKO here. But at $9,200, I do think he kind of needs to win by TKO because I don't expect him to be super high volume. And I think El Cana would be the more dangerous grappler of the two if the fight were to hit the mat.
Um, that would put Ella kind of as in play to win. I just don't, he's another guy. I just don't think he's very good. I don't know that he's even UFC caliber. Uh, so I'm picking Fernando to win by knockout. That's why I like him, but it is kind of like a, where I would want to cap it at his Round One FinishA round one finish is an MMA victory in the opening round by knockout, technical knockout (a stoppage because a fighter cannot safely continue), or submission (a forced surrender). In DFS, it earns an early-win scoring bonus.Compare first-round win odds with overall win odds, then ask how your fighter would score if the opponent survives. A strong favorite is not automatically a strong early-finish pick.Read the full definition of Round One Finish odds, because I don't know that a second round knockout would even get him there.
Especially if he were to drop the first, uh, like laying on his back, if Ellen kind of were to get a TakedownsTakedowns are successful wrestling moves that bring a standing opponent to the mat and establish a controlling position. In MMA DFS, you earn fantasy points for officially credited takedowns landed, not failed attempts.Watch whether your fighter actually chooses to wrestle against similar opponents. Strong takedown statistics do not help your lineup if the fighter spends this matchup trading punches.Read the full definition of Takedowns early. Um, so I expect a lower volume from Fernando, but I think those shots will count when, when he is landing them. Makes sense. I don't really have too much of a take. Oh yeah. Ranking Fernando, Elijah Smith, Deagley. Oh man. Um, gosh. Yeah, I don't know. I'm probably just going to be mixing them.
I would imagine once I'm done making lineups, they're all going to be pretty close. So for that reason, I'll go the cheapest one I like the most. Who would that be? DeGlay. All right, I'd be okay with that. Either the cheapest or if ownership were, if there were a big gap in ownership, I'd be cool with that too. Yeah, and I don't think there's going to be too big of a gap.
I think the ninety two to nine or to $9,000, it looks very similar for a lot of them. And you could even add Sosa. I think he's pretty similar to those guys as well. I do think Parsons will be the highest owned if you're talking about all three of those dogs that compared to Parsons. So, yeah, that's why it definitely a way better MME card than Single-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Read the full definition of Single-Entry.
I said that every single week, though, partly just because I'm bad at single entry. But, yeah, very similar plays in the upper tier in that low $9,000 range. All right, four fights left. Biggest favorites and highest priced fighter on the card. Sung, or let me make sure it's Siak Hung Ko. I definitely butchered it, but something Ko minus seven hundred taking on Wellington Turman plus five hundred minus one fifteen for this fight to finish. Ko plus one ten inside the distance.
Turman plus seven fifty. Ko round one plus two seventy five. Anytime you're $9,700 and a striker and not expected to finish the fight, you are not going to have much interest for me. So and Turman, we haven't seen him in a while. He's Cheeks. I mean, yeah, this is pretty easy for me. Fade is how I see it, and I'm hoping Ko wins the decision. Yeah, well, I would say Ko is a wrestler for the most part.
In his first two fights, he landed ten TakedownsTakedowns are successful wrestling moves that bring a standing opponent to the mat and establish a controlling position. In MMA DFS, you earn fantasy points for officially credited takedowns landed, not failed attempts.Watch whether your fighter actually chooses to wrestle against similar opponents. Strong takedown statistics do not help your lineup if the fighter spends this matchup trading punches.Read the full definition of Takedowns total, and he had twenty-three minutes of top control. So I think that's a perfect matchup. You think he'll do that against Terman? Because Terman's just a grappler. All right. I think Terman could kind of point fight with him too, but Cole's just going to be the better wrestler, going to be the more powerful striker.
The $9,700 takes me away from it, though, because even in those two wrestling based wins, where he completely dominated with wrestling. He only scored one Oh one and one Oh five. And at $9,700, that's probably not going to cut it. He's getting a washed tournament who we haven't seen in a while. But I just think that this is a fight for Coe to win.
And uh he probably scores a hundred points and just doesn't make the Optimal LineupAn optimal lineup is a legal roster that maximizes fantasy points under the salary cap and roster rules. After games, it uses actual scores; before games, a projected optimal uses estimated scores and any lineup restrictions you set.When reviewing an optimal, replace its most surprising scorer with a realistic pregame alternative. Check whether the remaining construction still offered a credible path to winning your contest.Read the full definition of Optimal Lineup so give me bashy instead give me montes instead uh fernando any of those guys I'd be fine just dropping from co to them and saving salary so I probably x out both sides of this fight maybe I make it a one star not even sure why I started at three stars it's a one star for me my least favorite on the card two targets All right, we got three fights left.
Let me head on over to our Ship It Nation homepage. See plans and pricing. As you can see, all the sports going on right now. NFL, college football, NBA, PGA, MMA, NASCAR, and NHL. Best time of the year for sure when we're talking sports. DFS. So I do think it's a great time to get into the core one hundred or starter package. You can build a hundred teams with the starter, I think, or with the core, excuse me, starter. You can build five hundred teams.
Then you get SaberSim's ProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections and OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership as well to average ours out. You also get portfolio diversification, contest flashback to see what the pros are doing, and Oh yeah, I already mentioned the ownership for both sites, which is very important. I think having two sets and being able to take the average is something that is worth doing if you have the ability to.
Ultimate, it's a lot more, but if you're playing a couple hundred dollars a night, running contest sims, that is what you are seeing most of the best players in the world doing nowadays. You also can build $5,000 teams. You get sim ROIs. And yeah, they run simulations hundreds of thousands of times. Definitely cool and a very powerful tool to try out if you are heavy and playing a lot of money in DFS.
We also do have single sport packages down below. MMA monthly only gets cheaper with annual. You can see SaberSim add-ons as well. We would love to have you. And, yeah, I don't know how many it's been, Big Marley, like ten straight weeks it feels like. For MMA, though, I think we have a break. Thanksgiving is the next one. And then the end of the year, like always. Three fights left. Yeah, the fight that, who was it, Marquis wanted to see, Davey Grant.
Elijah Smith taking on Davey Grant. Smith, minus three, ten. Davey, plus two, fifty-four. Minus one, fifty for this fight to finish. Smith, plus one, fifteen inside the distance. Davey, plus three, eighty. Smith, round one, plus three hundred. Take it away. What do you see in this one? I think it's going to be a good fight. I'm looking forward to this one from a DFS perspective and from a watching perspective. I think we have a talented athletic prospect with Smith, who is a good wrestler.
He's got solid knockout power as well. Against a veteran in Grant who was forty years old, was seventeen years older, but seems to be in the prime of his career somehow. And usually if you see a seventeen-year-old, You would think that the younger guy would have the better cardio, but this is one where I feel like I like Smith early in this fight. I think he could knock out Grant or he could wrestle heavily. But the longer it goes, the more I would start to trust Grant.
I think he could take over. I really like Grant's volume in the later years. And I think he's just a well-rounded fighter. He could mix in a TakedownsTakedowns are successful wrestling moves that bring a standing opponent to the mat and establish a controlling position. In MMA DFS, you earn fantasy points for officially credited takedowns landed, not failed attempts.Watch whether your fighter actually chooses to wrestle against similar opponents. Strong takedown statistics do not help your lineup if the fighter spends this matchup trading punches.Read the full definition of Takedowns or two, but he's also kind of an opportunistic submission grappler too. And he could submit a gassed.
Smith late so I like both sides of this fight don't really have a preferred play put it as a three and a three because I like both sides and typically that leads me to the underdog but when I'm hand building if I have it as a three and three I'm just not starting with this fight I'm going to start my my lineup with a montes or something like that montes or a magomedov that's where I'll start my lineup I'd imagine maybe both I'll go montes magomedov and then I'll start working and see where it goes and then I if I uh can get either one of these guys in with one of my later picks.
That's what I love to do in a fight where I'm targeting both guys in a higher-starred fight. So I just think this is going to be a good one. It's going to be a really good test to see how good Smith is. But at some point, man, Grant has to start falling off. So I picked Grant. I mean, I'm sorry. I picked Smith thinking maybe now is the time. But at $7,100, man, I think he could be my preferred play.
Might even be one of my OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership underdogs just because I'm not so sure. And Grant hasn't really given me any reasons to think now's the time. But father time catches up with everybody. Yeah, I agree with you, though. I agree with Marquis. Grant's a junkyard dog. He'll fight for your dollar. He feels like a FloorIn daily fantasy sports (DFS), a player's floor is an estimate of the low end of their realistic fantasy scoring range. It describes downside, not a guaranteed minimum or their average projected score.Before trusting a floor estimate, check what could change the player's role today: a returning teammate, a minutes restriction, a lineup change or a different game script.Read the full definition of Floor play because he's not going to wrestle. I don't know how likely. Plus, he's plus three to get a finish, so that's your likelihood.
But it doesn't feel like he's too likely to get a knockout, in my opinion. I just think his best path to victory is – A twenty nine, twenty eight landing, a hundred Significant StrikesSignificant strikes in MMA include all strikes at distance, outside a close grappling hold, plus forceful strikes during that hold or on the ground. For DFS scoring, only landed strikes count, not missed attempts.Compare significant strikes landed per minute with the opponent's absorption rate, then adjust for likely fight duration and wrestling. Treat averages from very short fights or limited samples cautiously.Read the full definition of Significant Strikes. Feels like a Gabriel Fernandez play where you're hoping to just get the win. Seventy be enough. I'll take seventy. If you tell me Grant wins, I don't really care what he scores. I would play plenty at $7,100. Smith, I think relatively LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Read the full definition of Leverage has upside, but by no means do I love it.
I think I'm probably on the Grant side more than Smith, just hoping to get a win and trusting a live dog. But yeah, I'll play some Smith fights minus one fifty to finish. And both sides should be relatively held in check. All right, let's get to the co-main event. Man, this looks like we're the most different, so I'm definitely going to have to throw it to you first. Tatiana Suarez, minus-two-oh-five. Verna, plus-one-seventy-three. The most likely to go the distance on the card at minus-three-twenty-five.
Suarez, plus-three-eighty inside the distance. Verna, plus-five-fifty. Take it away. I mean, four stars. I was looking at this fight as a fade or heavy underweight, so try and sell me. Well... I just now changed it, but I don't know if you can't tell the main event. I put four stars for each fighter. I don't know what I was tripping on when I was at work doing this. I did notice that I was going to wait till you saw it.
So I updated everything now, but this is a three star. And it's more so because it's one of the few underdogs I picked to win outright. Against one of the best wrestlers in WMMA. So that's really why it was a four-star, but I changed it to a three. I just think both women do have a path to victory. Suarez, really one of the best wrestlers I've seen in WMMA, and she does have the path to victory of three wins.
I don't know how many TakedownsTakedowns are successful wrestling moves that bring a standing opponent to the mat and establish a controlling position. In MMA DFS, you earn fantasy points for officially credited takedowns landed, not failed attempts.Watch whether your fighter actually chooses to wrestle against similar opponents. Strong takedown statistics do not help your lineup if the fighter spends this matchup trading punches.Read the full definition of Takedowns she can land against a Verna. I don't know that Verna would even care to get up because she is pretty dangerous on the ground herself. She might just try to maneuver it to where she can get the advantage. But I think that if Sora is going to win, it's at least three takedowns and ten plus minutes of control time. And she can land little little strikes in between there and score well at $8,600.
And I would think that if Verna does get up, the rinse and repeat is available for Suarez. So, I mean, we've seen Suarez put up big numbers. So I like her in general. I've always been high on Suarez. I thought she should be a champion. But at this point, I think she's falling off. I think Suarez is washed. And even though she's the younger fighter of the two, I think Verna... Looks more in her prime.
I think she could win the striking just based on volume alone. And I also think if she were to take down Suarez, Suarez could really be in trouble. Whereas if Suarez gets takedowns, we kind of expect that, but I don't expect her to finish. Verna in top control, but a wrestler like Suarez is not used to being dominated. They're used to being the hammer, not the nail. So I think a good grappler, good wrestler in Verna is just super live in this matchup.
She's actually my favorite bet on the board right now. I haven't bet it yet. But I've been thinking about it all week, really. So I might as well. She's just thirty eight years old. I think she is beginning to get washed herself, too. But I just think that Suarez is more washed and she's kind of had her moment and failed big. And it's hard to come back from that. So give me Verna. She's my preferred play.
We're going to be one of my higher owned underdogs, if not higher owned, definitely higher leveraged underdogs on the card. And I'm fine with a little bit of Suarez just because she is still Suarez. And if she were to win, it would be a pretty good score, but Verna is my pick to him. Who wins the striking? I think, I think Verna. Yeah. I think Suarez will have more behind her shots, but Verna will, land more and more. So it's like, I don't know.
I mean, I pick who lands more in that, but what are these idiot judges think? I don't know. Maybe if someone gets cut open, then that person who cut them open wins the striking. I think it would be kind of that close where it's just like your power versus your volume. Yeah. The reason I asked that is because I am, I'm not convinced that Suarez is capable of, I shouldn't say capable. She's definitely capable, but I think she's past her prime too.
And like, Her fight against Lamos, she struggled to get takedowns, and Verna, while she is comfortable off her back, will probably just sit there the whole time, especially if you think she's the better striker. Why would Verna not just try and keep it out in the feet, strike? I don't think she has success on her own offensive takedowns, and that's why in a fight that's minus-three-twenty-five to go the distance, it's only gotten worse.
The over has taken money as the week's gone on. You need Tatiana to wrestle heavy and have success all three rounds, or you need Verna to win, which... Yeah, I mean, I guess $7,600. I probably should have a little more interest than I initially did, but I think it stays on the feet for the most part. Or Verna is spending the time off her back.
And if she just waits five minutes off her back, it's harder than catch up on points right there. So I guess maybe I'll keep them in my pool when I initially didn't expect to as much since I already have some other fades I like. But by no means do I like this fight. Big Marley likes it a little more than I do. All right, it's main event time, and I think a pretty solid main event. I'm excited for this one.
Waldo, Cortez, Acosta, minus-two-twenty-seven. Johnny Walker, plus-one-ninety, minus-four-hundred for this fight to finish. Waldo, minus-one-thirty inside the distance. Johnny Walker, plus-two-twenty. Waldo, round one, plus-three-fifty. We're on opposite sides here. I'm on Johnny Walker. I do not understand this line. I love the new heavyweight Johnny Walker. I think it fits his body way better. I think he finally is fighting smart behind his leg kick, which is absolutely nasty. Waldo, a heavy-footed guy, always planted.
I think if he beats up that leg early like he did against Parkin, limits the mobility, I can take over from there. Dogger pass. Money's been moving against me, though, which I don't love to see. But yeah, that's not changing my mindset. Also, Waldo can get a third round knockout, still not be optimal at $8,700. It's harder for me to see Johnny Walker's being not being optimal at $7,500. So I think I'm underweight.
Waldo play others in the range, overweight Johnny Walker. And I definitely will play some fight fades, though, with there being fourteen fights and twelve to fourteen expected to finish. Tell me why I'm wrong and why Waldo and where Waldo wins this fight. I don't know that you're wrong. I just think that Waldo's the more likely winner over the course of five rounds in striking. I think he's the more likely wrestler. Also, round one is going to be the most difficult. Walker is more explosive.
I'd say he's more powerful early. But the longer it goes, the more I think it would shift into Acosta's favor. So round one, I think it's Pickham after round one. I think each round the line would start to increase more and more for Acosta. But yeah, it could get too late where he just doesn't score enough. And I almost made this a four star for that reason. And I might make it a four star after I'm done making my lineups.
But I just lump Walker in with let's see here. Walker, Petroski, Lorenco or Lorenzo, uh, cash aware and Parsons, all dogs who shouldn't expect to win, but if they do win, have a really good chance of scoring a hundred plus points. Um, so they're all very similar to me. I'm not really starting any lineup with them. I'm going to start how I told you I'm going to start. And then those are going to be the ones where I click on, just see where I can go.
And that's how I hand build in general, but that's exactly how I'm going to start hand building this week. And then I'll just have to find a way to get different. Maybe it'll be leaving salary on the table from one of my last couple picks. Or if I end up clicking against those high ceiling underdogs, maybe I do click more of the live underdogs like Jandaroba, Grant, who's the other one we were talking about, Fernandez, something like that. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
And if you parlay, like you mentioned, the Parsons, the Johnny Walkers, the Petroskis, like if you parlay them, you're going to get, I know they're all underdogs, but one of them is expected to finish. It makes it easier to say. If you parlay all the favorites against those underdogs that Big Marley mentioned, you're going to get plus money, meaning that at least one of those underdogs is expected to win. That's why there's no fight stacks. On this card.
And while it is a little more uncomfortable to go to the low $7,000 range, more than likely one of them should win. Then there'll be needed on this card. And that's a way to get to the top without as many dupes. Yeah. I do not like Waldo as much as the field will though, especially like you said, if you think Johnny Walker is more dangerous early books, don't have it that way. They have Waldo more around one equity than, than Walker.
But if you do believe that, then you don't think Waldo is going to get a finish in the first two rounds because and a third round would not be enough if Johnny then does slow. You'd think Waldo's more likely to wrestle, though. I guess that's not really a hot take. Johnny Walker doesn't wrestle, and Waldo can use his big frame, but I'm just not seeing either really wrestle. I think Johnny, man, I'm debating hitting this line.
Maybe I'll wait for live bets, but I think the light kick's going to be money again. I think Johnny... I think Johnny's a little problem at the heavyweight division. I'm not saying he's going to win a championship by any means, but top six, maybe I think. Uh, and that, yeah. And that show heavyweights so bad. I mean, let me go look at the heavyweight rankings quick. Yeah. I mean, he could be top six or he could be out of the UFC in two fights.
It depends on how this fight goes. Kind of for sure. This is a huge fight for his career. Yeah. That's what I'm picking them. Let's see. Uh, um, Heavyweight, Aspinall. I mean, Volkov's two. Like, yeah, I mean, I think that's a relatively close fight. I guess, yeah, Curtis Blades, Johnny Walker, that'd be fun. Maybe Blades does wrestle him a ton. But Waldo's eight. Kunia of seven.
I mean, yeah, if he wins right here, he's going to be relatively close to the top six. My boy Hockey boxes him all over the cage. Yeah, but Hokit is probably considered, I mean, he's fighting for the championship. Aspinall, I mean, Hokit. That is a championship fight, man, huh? Yeah. I mean, Hokit, Pereira, like Hokit's arguably top three or four. So, yeah, I agree. Hokit beats Johnny Walker, but. So I got a question for you as a Cash GameA cash game is a contest that pays a large share of the field, usually close to half, the same flat prize. Fifty-fifties, double-ups and head-to-heads are the common cash games.Treat cash games as the steady base of your bankroll. Use one safe core across your cash entries on a slate, and save riskier ideas for tournaments.Read the full definition of Cash Game player.
How often are you stacking main events and are you stacking this main event? I probably stack it at least ninety percent of the time last week I didn't I just played the moicano the nature of the card there was a lot of um pretty like favorites that were not like cody dirt in $7,900 there was an $1,000 favorites enough mid-tier stuff that way as far as this card man I definitely don't look until later.
My guess is I'm probably going to stack it, though. The reason is like the Johnny Walker range. I don't feel really too confident of anyone priced around him. So I think I'm naturally going to play him in a five round favor. That's minus two twenty seven minus one twenty side inside. Excuse me. It's up my throat. A minus one twenty inside the distance fighter with five rounds to work at $8,700 is pretty hard to ignore in cash.
So, yeah, my guess is I will stack it. It doesn't feel great, but it's Cash GameA cash game is a contest that pays a large share of the field, usually close to half, the same flat prize. Fifty-fifties, double-ups and head-to-heads are the common cash games.Treat cash games as the steady base of your bankroll. Use one safe core across your cash entries on a slate, and save riskier ideas for tournaments.Read the full definition of Cash Game. You're not playing for CeilingCeiling is the high end of a player's or lineup's realistic range of fantasy scores. It describes a big performance that could happen when things go well, not the expected score or an absolute maximum.Describe what must happen for each player to have a huge game. Then check whether those conditions help or hurt the other players in your lineup.Read the full definition of Ceiling outcome. You mainly just want to win four to two. Yeah. I mean, four to six. Usually when I don't know if I'm going to stack it, I sometimes think, and especially if I'm picking the underdog, sometimes I'll just use the underdog and maybe stack like a Smith and a grant instead.
But with heavyweights, you can't really risk it like that in cash games. Cause Walker could just get zero points. Yeah. Yeah, I think I'm going to. Get over to Shippenation.com, though. We do put three of the six. Give out fifty percent of the cash game lineup, at least in my opinion, the three core plays. You also get big Marlies. You get FanDuel. You get ProjectionsDFS projections estimate a player's fantasy points for an upcoming slate using expected opportunities, performance and the contest's scoring rules. They describe an expected result, not a guaranteed score.Check the projection's update time and assumed role before using it. If news is already included, adjusting again for that same news can double-count its effect.Read the full definition of Projections and OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Read the full definition of Ownership for MMA, of course, as always. Slate Station write-ups. This stone will be completed, color-coded.
Everything will be all filled in, including weigh-ins. MMA, it never stops. Yeah, hope everyone enjoys their weekend. If you're not doing anything Saturday, college football and MMA is a great way to prepare for free money Sunday the next day. Final thoughts, Big Marley, before we get on out of here. I mean, congrats again to Hebrew cheetah on the million dollar win, man. I've been pumped about that all week long, but hopefully we'll be riding that heater for this card. Good luck to you, title.
Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it. Appreciate everyone hanging out. Get on over to Ship It Nation.com. Get in the Discord. If you do join like button, the subscribe button helps us out a ton on YouTube as well. That'll do it. Good luck. Be safe. Enjoy your weekend. Peace.
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