Shows / NASCAR/ Saturday, September 19, 2026
From the archive. This breakdown is for the Saturday, September 19 NASCAR slate. Salaries, weather and picks were for that day.
Latest NASCAR show →Eric Schneck approaches Bristol with at least two dominators after rain canceled practice and qualifying, leaving the starting order set by the rulebook. Kyle Larson is the clear first choice from the pole, backed by his Bristol dominance and improving form. Ryan Blaney combines major place differential upside from 29th with the ability to reach the front and dominate later. Chase Briscoe offers a cheaper pivot away from Blaney.
Josh Berry ($6,900) is the preferred salary saver from 32nd, rounding out the popular Larson-Blaney starting point. Chris Buescher draws strong interest from 23rd, while Todd Gilliland and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. help fit the expensive drivers. Zane Smith gets a slight preference over Noah Gragson among the cheap options near the back. Christopher Bell and Ty Gibbs are liked, while several drivers starting near the front carry more downside than appeal.
| Play | Call | The Take | At |
|---|---|---|---|
| DOMINATOR | The clear top dominator from the pole warrants heavy exposure, with the potential to lead the opening stage and much more despite an anticipated competition caution. | 8:06 | |
| Starts alongside Larson and has strong Bristol history, but is not expected to have enough to challenge him. | 11:55 | ||
| A viable pivot away from Larson with Bristol wins behind him, although starting directly behind Larson limits the enthusiasm. | 11:55 | ||
| Acceptable for GPPs based on his Bristol ability, but not expected to dominate. | 12:29 | ||
| Past Bristol speed is acknowledged, but aggression and a fifth-place start make the $7,900 salary less appealing than Berry's cheaper position near the back. | 13:17 | ||
| Would be more appealing from deeper in the field; starting sixth creates too much concern to generate enthusiasm. | 13:33 | ||
| FADE | Off him as part of the broader decision to avoid Trackhouse because of its poor performance. | 13:33 | |
| FADE | Short-track ability does not overcome the concern about his starting position. | 14:03 | |
| Worth considering because he shares equipment preparation and teammates with strong Bristol performers, but not someone to prioritize. | 14:03 | ||
| Included as a driver worth taking a chance on, without a stronger endorsement or a specific dominator claim. | 14:33 |
All systems go. Clear for liftoff. Good morning and welcome to this weekend's NASCAR quick hit here for Ship It Nation I am Eric also known as the game on Discord and this morning we'll be breaking down the bass pro shops night race at thunder valley the last great coliseum or also known as bristol motor speedway can't wait But before we go ahead and break down tonight's Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway, let me of course mention us, the good folks over at Shippenation.com.
Everything you need. Everything.
You need to have success with DFS for less over at shipitnation.com folks the NFL season is in full swing week two is here we are in the midst of week two jump in NFL only package the entire season through the super bowl even if you missed week one that's okay jump in now three hundred and forty nine dollars for the entire season including
The super bowl that includes SaberSim only and this is for the NFL only package mind you so that includes shipping game entries projections OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ the Stone 2.0 point oh stack rankings showdown information from a good old bg little neck core reports slate stations education courses by hoop temple and the boys everything you could possibly want for the NFL the entire season only three hundred and forty nine dollars but if you're asking yourself Eric what if we want everything else guess what you could do that too if you want everything we have to offer which why the hell wouldn't you go ahead and just click on the join button up here in the upper right and boom join the nation all access is every single sport we offer PGA which is all the time.
NBA, which will be here before you know it. The MLB, which we are in the middle of right now. MMA, the UFC three thirty one is tonight. I think I just reserved my I know I just reserved my entries. I just forget the number. So once I'm done recording this, I'm going to build some MMA lineups. So MMA all the time. Hockey, believe at the end of the month, hockey's back before you know it.
NASCAR every Sunday baby for thirty six thirty seven thirty eight however many weeks we go every Sunday baby NFL college football we're here all access plus optimizer core one hundred SaberSim five day trial with Discord access there's not many places that a give you a free trial but then also gives you the Discord access where you can chat with everybody like the whole community not just like poop tambo little
Nick nades uh god damn it I'm proud there's a whole the whole team is here and I'm just getting you know it's not just talking with the team it's the whole community chop it up right chop it up it's great I'm telling you if you haven't joined the nation if you thought about it nineteen dollars join today If you join today for nineteen dollars, you get UFC three thirty one content. You get the NASCAR content.
You get football content for the rest of the weekend. Baseball content. Round three, four, I guess round four PGA content like come on next week's PGA. If there even is one, I'm sure there is like.
Come on now's the time shipitnation.com your one-stop shop for all things DFS what is it what do we say what's our what's our phrase everything you need to have success with DFS for less shipitnation.com join the nation you will not regret it back to good old johnny morris's bass pro shops night race at bristol motor speedway tonight There are five hundred laps on deck at the I think they call it the last great Coliseum.
I much prefer Thunder Valley, but we'll go with their branding. There are five hundred laps on deck at the last great Coliseum, which should equal out to roughly three hundred and fifty DominatorsDominators are NASCAR drivers who earn a large share of fantasy points from leading laps or recording fastest laps, meaning the quickest time among drivers on a particular lap. Before a race, the term describes candidates for that role.Compare practice averages over several consecutive laps and performance at similar tracks. Then identify how each candidate could reach the lead instead of assuming the pole sitter will control the race.Full explanation ↗ points up for grabs. We will absolutely.
Want to target those points at least two dominators today even though qualifying was rained out at least two doms especially the one that's on the pole you probably want to grab to start anyway um practice and qualifying were birth birth practice and qualifying were both uh rained out lightning out So the starting lineup was set via the rulebook, which we have some fairly ChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗, fairly really good plays up front and some fairly chalky, really good plays in the back.
So it should be a fairly straightforward building situation for today. But before we do that, I just want to...
Do something on a personal note here real quick on the Thursday before the truck race I mentioned that I was unable to provide a truck series core due to an emergency with the family dog well folks please please please please give your four-legged friends hugs kisses extra dog treats today Miss Maxine here at age eleven plus sadly crossed over into the Rainbow Bridge on Thursday with a bad heart, heart, heart problems took her.
So it's been a not fun couple of days here for the for the game household. I'm sorry. Faking my way through this video with a happy voice. So, folks, go ahead and pause this. Give permission. Pause. And give your four-legged friends extra hugs, extra kisses, and extra treats. Because God knows Miss Maxine loved her way in and around the kitchen. So, Miss Maxine, we miss you. It's still very, very, very weird waking up and having you not be here.
But anyway, let's continue on before I start crying. All right. The NASCAR Cup. Oh, did I freeze? Here we go. We're back. Hey, thanks. That was Maxine messing with the camera. As mentioned before, qualifying and practice were both rained out. So we have no really data to look at at all. Thankfully for the Xfinity slash O'Reilly series guys yesterday, they at least got practice in while their qualifying got like canceled mid-go. The Cup boys didn't get a shot at all.
So everything we are building off of will be the power rankings because, as I mentioned before, as well, the starting lineup was set via the rulebook. So we have some really, we have a really ChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ play on the pole and we have a really chalky play in twenty ninth and what, thirty second. Yeah. So and then everything else is kind of, you know.
Up for grabs GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗ type stuff but let's go ahead and break down the starting lineup and we are starting with last week's winner Tyler larson on the pole uh if there has ever been an obvious DFS DominatorsDominators are NASCAR drivers who earn a large share of fantasy points from leading laps or recording fastest laps, meaning the quickest time among drivers on a particular lap. Before a race, the term describes candidates for that role.Compare practice averages over several consecutive laps and performance at similar tracks. Then identify how each candidate could reach the lead instead of assuming the pole sitter will control the race.Full explanation ↗ play it's gonna be Tyler larson today at bristol yes we have not seen them roll off the track we have not seen them turn a lap uh this weekend I don't care larson has led since $2,000 and twenty $4,000 one hundred and ninety six laps at bristol let me say that again since $2,000 and twenty three Tyler larson has led $1,000 one hundred and ninety six laps at bristol that's two complete races and then some okay Larson is fantastic here I don't care
If he didn't I don't care if he timed dead last if they had practiced and he timed dead last and still made the poll I would still roll him out heavy Larson finally got that win off his back last weekend. Now he's gifted the pole. Gifted, I don't want to say gifted like that, because he did earn it. He won rulebook, et cetera. But got the pole, base speed of the rulebook for tonight at a track he absolutely crushes at. Absolutely crush, like just...
Like the next highest lap leader in that same time frame is Ty Gibbs with four hundred and ninety six. Arson almost has like what? Almost triple double more than double. Not not not as triple. But yeah, like. He's obviously dominated here before. He's found speed recently. He's been on the uptick. He finally won last week. That man is going to get a ton of OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ today, but for good reason. I have a hard time not seeing him lead a huge chunk of this race.
Now, the one kind of... Wrench into this is probably the competition caution that's going to happen around lap twenty five to lap thirty five, lap forty, somewhere in there. Right. They haven't called it yet. At least I don't think so. I have a Twitter notification that I haven't read. So maybe they did. But there's almost guaranteed going to be a competition caution today, which so you'll probably have Larson lead that first round.
Batch of laps or whatever and then the competition caution comes and then it's going to be you know who's pitting who's not pitting etc etc But assuming Larson leads this whole opening stretch and tires aren't an issue, which they shouldn't be, as long as there's not crazy, funky pitch strategy from that point on, I could easily see Larson leading the whole opening stage and then some. When you lead over a thousand laps at a racetrack, Like, it's hard not to gush over.
So we're going to continue on. But that's why Larson is far and away. Probably every I was I would assume every DFS talking head today is going to talk about how great of a potential DominatorsDominators are NASCAR drivers who earn a large share of fantasy points from leading laps or recording fastest laps, meaning the quickest time among drivers on a particular lap. Before a race, the term describes candidates for that role.Compare practice averages over several consecutive laps and performance at similar tracks. Then identify how each candidate could reach the lead instead of assuming the pole sitter will control the race.Full explanation ↗ play Tyler Larson is. If they're not. I would second guess what they're telling you.
Uh next up joey logano who's also a fantastic like there was one at one point where logano was like the king of bristol that's not so much anymore um he's outside pole I don't think he has anything for young money uh denny hamlin starting third he has two wins in bristol since $2,000 and twenty three if he wasn't starting directly behind the god of bristol Tyler larson I would love him a whole lot more I don't don't love danny too too much today but If you're looking from pivots away from Larson, he's a good one to go to.
William B. And Carson Hosovar up next. Will he be great at Bristol? I have no issues making him a GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗ play. I don't think he's going to dominate today. Hosovar has shown speed at Bristol in the past. He's still kind of...
Like a while I don't I don't he's so aggressive that I just am worried that the aggression is going to be a negative for us at a racetrack where aggression is hyped up like I posted a pile of videos in the Discord this morning uh showing aggressive bristol situations And all everybody talks about how much they hate House of R. And we know the House of R is not afraid to use the bumper. Right.
So, like, do we really want to take that chance with a fifth place starting House of R? Who's what? $7,900. Well, we have a $6,900. Josh Berry starting in thirty second. Right.
Probably not but I do understand if you want to make that play uh alex bowman rush has stains up next if bowman the showman was starting deeper in the field I would be all about taking the chance I just don't love it from that sixth place starting position uh I think and as far as ross goes I think I'm I'm off of all of track house for the rest of the season it's just um I don't know what they have to do to turn it around, but Trackhouse just is not looking good.
That's Trackhouse as a whole. Just not looking great. Austin Dillon... He's a great little short track racer. I just don't love him in the starting position. So that's a no. Austin Sendrick, I missed him. Yep, I'll take a chance. He's not as great at Bristol as Logano and Blaney are, but he is in and around them all week long. The cars are prepared by the same people like...
You know all was that uh high tide raises all ships so you got to assume that uh some of that personal ability and and and magic has made its has will eventually find its way to cinderella so am I saying to go out of your way to play cinderella no but you should be considered just because He's not as terrible as when people start to talk sometimes. Austin Dillon, no. Like I said, just don't love him here. Bubba Wallace, yep. I'll take a chance on Bubba.
Frank Kozlowski, yep. I'll take a chance on Brad. I'm probably... Like, Brad will be in the pool. If I don't get much of Brad, I won't be too, too terribly upset. I just... I don't know, I feel like the old dog still has a couple in him, and at these racetracks where you have to grind out a hard, grueling night, I like veterans in these situations.
Brad will definitely be in the player pool, but I'm not sure how much exposure I'm going to end up getting. Uh, Christopher Bell and Ty Gibbs up next. Christopher Bell's fantastic. Love Bell. Uh, same with Ty Gibbs. Uh, Larson has led at $1,000 one hundred ninety six and Bell led what? Four ninety eight. I think I said so. Don't sleep on Ty Gibbs. He's really good at Bristol as well. Won the spring race and is in the Tyler Busch tribute M&M throwback scheme.
So, uh, all of rowdy nation Tyler Busch fans Etc will be behind that fifty-four car tonight and uh yeah it wouldn't surprise me to see him win it like you know it seems like we get storybook endings in NASCAR maybe a tad more frequently than other sports do. And seeing that car win tonight would be said storybook ending. So we'll see. Eric Jones and Connor Zilich, no and no. Ryan Preece, yeah, I like Preece. He's a...
Had some good runs lately is in the chase uh starting sixteenth I think he will stay on the lead lap at least for like the first half of the race like yes cars will be a lap down today like for sure they'll probably be like up into the twenties a lap down by the end of the race priest should be able to stay ahead of that assuming everything goes well I'd like a chance on priests. Cole Custer, no. Ahmaud Dinger, no.
John Hunter Nemechek, no. Tyler Reddick, yeah, just because of Dread Dog. He's great. He's fast. If this was Bristol Dirt, I would be much, much more into it. I don't love it, but we can't ignore the fact that he's talented. He's, like, high in the points, and we know he has, like, grade A equipment and team all around him, so... Not my favorite play on the board, but I don't hate Red Dog today. Mike Mack, no. Shane Van Gisbergen, no. Chris Buescher, yep.
Everything I said about Kozlowski also goes to Chris Buescher for sure. And Chris Buescher starts the twenty third and is $8,300. Yeah, I love some of that. Gilliland, he's power ranking real bad.
But it's gilly it seems like he um he pulls it out for us more often than not and he's cheap right and we we gotta save some money somewhere we're stacking in these studs so we'll keep gilly in the pool austin hill no he's in Tyler bush's car but he ain't no Tyler bush so austin hill no chase briscoe So many people will be making Larson and Blaney their first and second click, followed by Josh Berry, and I love all those clicks.
If you're looking for an easy pivot off of that, pivot from Blaney to Briscoe. It saves you some money. You do lose some potential Place DifferentialPlace differential is a driver’s scored starting position minus their finishing position. You gain fantasy points when the driver finishes ahead of that starting spot and lose points when they finish behind it.Check why a driver starts deep. An unusually poor qualifying result can create an opportunity, while weak race pace or an unresolved mechanical problem can undermine it.Full explanation ↗ points, but you still get the race winning and potential DominatorsDominators are NASCAR drivers who earn a large share of fantasy points from leading laps or recording fastest laps, meaning the quickest time among drivers on a particular lap. Before a race, the term describes candidates for that role.Compare practice averages over several consecutive laps and performance at similar tracks. Then identify how each candidate could reach the lead instead of assuming the pole sitter will control the race.Full explanation ↗ upside. So... Yes. Love it. Chase Elliott projects actually really good here. I don't really, I don't have like a standout Bristol Chase Elliott memory in my mind to be like, oh yeah, like that's like, I don't, but he projects decent.
He is getting some potential OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ and he's starting deep enough in the field with good enough equipment to should be able to pass cars. So yeah, Am I going out of my way to play Chase Elliott? No, I never go out of my way to play Chase Elliott. But he should be considered in the player pool for sure today. Same goes for mi amigo Daniel Suarez. He grades out like terrible, but he's shown speed this season. So he should be included.
Twenty ninth, Ryan Blaney. He's just as good as Larson. Like he has. Has he led as many laps as Larson? No, but he's fantastic here. He gets you crazy Place DifferentialPlace differential is a driver’s scored starting position minus their finishing position. You gain fantasy points when the driver finishes ahead of that starting spot and lose points when they finish behind it.Check why a driver starts deep. An unusually poor qualifying result can create an opportunity, while weak race pace or an unresolved mechanical problem can undermine it.Full explanation ↗ with legitimate race winning and race dominating upside. It's, it's rare. You get all of that in one package like you do today with Brian Blaney. Like it might take him till stage two, you know, stage three to get up to the front, but like he can do it. Like we know he can do it.
So yeah, Yeah, love me some Blaney. Cody Ware, no. Ricky Stenhouse, if you're looking to save some money, yep, which we will need to save some money today. Josh Barry, he's been on a tear recently. He was trending well last week until he miffed it up there. So yeah, I'll roll him out at $6,900 from thirty second. You damn right. Ty Dillon and Riley Herbst. No and no. Zane Smith and Noah Gregson. Yes and yes.
I probably lean a little bit more towards Zane than I do Noah. But Noah has had some fairly decent runs for Noah recently. So that can't be ignored. Zane is cheaper at fifty seven compared to Noah's sixty one. And Noah starts thirty fifth to Noah's thirty six. So it's not that big of a deal there. And starting dead last is Josh Balicki. And that is a big fat no from me, dog.
Perfect alright hey uh twenty minutes this week like I said no practice no qualifying to talk about uh with all the studs up front with some studs in the back so uh shouldn't be too too much really else left to talk about this late with no practice no qualifying I don't expect any drivers to go to the rear I don't expect them to find uh like crazy faults with their car or pre-race checkups which would require you know fixing so I kind of think what you see is what you get and let's hope for a good bristol night race I ain't gonna lie Sometimes, especially in the next-gen era, these races can feel a little drawn out and, dare I say, a little bit boring.
I'm just just being honest so let's hope for a a good race an exciting race and let's hope we have a new bristol memory at the end of it with all of us shipping some fort of GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool)A GPP is a tournament whose prize pool is guaranteed to pay out in full even if the contest does not fill. Payouts are steep: a small group at the top wins most of the money.Before you enter a tournament lineup, ask how it finishes first, not just how it cashes. If you cannot name that scenario, rebuild it.Full explanation ↗ at the end of the night as well so as always thank you for listening if you have any questions please feel free to drop them in the Discord once again hug your four-legged friends a little bit closer a little bit tighter take your winnings buy them some treats buy them some snacks they deserve it they love us we love them Maxine I love you good luck in all of your tournaments good luck in all of your contests Saturday night NASCAR, Saturday night MMA, Sunday football.
That's a lethal combination. Good luck. And as always, let's ship it.
Join Today
Includes: sabersim
Jump to a Game
Most Mentioned
