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MLB DFS Process | DraftKings & FanDuel Picks, Plays & Slate Breakdown | Thursday, 09/24/26

Aired Thu Sep 24, 2026 Hosts Matthew Belman & Scott Gyiraszin Runtime 39:59 Chapters 11 Views 458

From the archive. This breakdown is for the Thursday, September 24 MLB slate. Salaries, weather and picks were for that day.

The Short Version

Matthew Belman and Scott Gyiraszin break down a six-game DraftKings slate. Bryan Woo ($8,500) is their clear pitching priority against the strikeout-prone Angels. Tyler Mahle joins him as the preferred second pitcher; his six-inning contract incentive eases concerns about an early exit. Tyler Glasnow ranks third despite the difficult Padres matchup, while Grayson Rodriguez is a cheap option better suited to multiple lineups.

The Astros are the top stack against Barnett and the Athletics bullpen, with Sacramento’s park and Houston’s prices breaking a close comparison. The Braves rank second against a struggling Brady Singer. Seattle offers lower-owned left-handed bats against Rodriguez. The hosts split on the Dodgers: one plans to stack them, while the other prefers Houston and Atlanta. Jose Altuve and Matt Olson get the home run calls.

FadesRanger SuárezYankeesRaysAngels

Plays Mentioned

PlayCallThe TakeAt
SP The $8,500 price and the Angels’ strikeouts make him the clear pitching priority despite expected ownership. 6:32
His recent pitching is acknowledged, but Tampa Bay’s tendency to pull pitchers creates concern about his workload. 6:59
SP A lower-owned pivot from Glasnow, but his salary and Tampa Bay’s limited strikeouts make him less appealing for one lineup. 8:03
SP His price and matchup appeal, and a six-inning contract incentive makes an early exit less concerning. 9:17
SP A possible cheap source of points without the ceiling of the preferred pitchers. 11:29
SP A $5,500 option with strikeout upside, though they would limit exposure because Seattle’s lefties can also get to him. 12:16
SP Ranks third among their pitchers, though the Padres matchup keeps him behind Woo and Mahle. 13:04
FADE Both pass on him because other pitchers offer more strikeout upside. 14:48
Red Sox Cantillo could be hit, but their lineup draws little enthusiasm and the game is largely a stay-away. 16:41
Yankees FADE The hosts cross off the low-total game against Seymour. 17:35
Rays FADE The hosts cross off the low-total game against Schlittler. 17:35
ONE-OFF Named among the Braves bats to start with against Singer. 18:49
ONE-OFF Named among the preferred Braves bats, with a possible leadoff spot. 18:49
ONE-OFF Named among the left-handed Braves bats to use against Singer. 18:49
ONE-OFF Named as another Braves bat to use against Singer. 18:49
Reds LEVERAGE Their left-handed bats could provide leverage against a popular Mahle, though a full stack is less appealing. 19:47
Braves TOP STACK They rank near the top against Singer’s recent struggles and the Reds bullpen, despite expected ownership. 20:38
One host would consider keeping him in a large lineup pool because Atlanta is expected to draw heavy ownership; the other emphasizes his poor recent control. 20:56
ONE-OFF A Reds piece who can be used alongside Mahle to get different, with stolen-base upside. 22:14
Astros TOP STACK The preferred stack gets Barnett, the Athletics bullpen, a favorable park and manageable prices. 24:08
ONE-OFF Called one of the top bats on the slate in Houston’s favorable matchup. 24:08
ONE-OFF His $4,000 salary stands out within the preferred Astros lineup. 24:58
Mariners LEVERAGE Their left-handed power offers a lower-owned way to attack Rodriguez, with the home park the main drawback. 28:44
Angels FADE Their expensive lineup and weak left-handed options make them unappealing against Woo. 30:09
Guardians IN PLAY A late sneaky-stack call rests on Cleveland’s need for a win, though the matchup drew little enthusiasm earlier. 36:59
HR CALL Picked to hit a home run. 36:59
Dodgers IN PLAY The hosts split: one plans to stack them against Pivetta, while the other prefers Houston and Atlanta because of Pivetta and the Padres bullpen. 37:30
HR CALL Picked to hit a home run against Singer. 38:04

DFS Terms Used on This Show

Ballpark FactorsBallpark factors, also called park factors, measure how much a stadium raises or lowers scoring compared with an average park. Altitude, fence distances, foul territory and typical weather shape them, and some parks favor one side of the plate.Check whether a park factor is split by handedness. Some parks boost left-handed power while doing little for righties, and that split can change which hitters you stack.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 12:16 OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 13:53 LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 18:49 ChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗▶ Said at 22:14

Full Transcript

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0:03

All systems go. Clear for lift off. What is up, Shippin' Nation YouTube station? We got a Thursday night of some baseball. I got to apologize real quick, too, right off the bat. I sound a little stuffy. Sinus man's kicking my ass all week. But, Matt, hopefully you've been feeling a little bit better than I have all week. Like I said, I don't know about all this moisture and shit we have up here. It's like changing of the guard around here, too, with the seasons coming in.

1:01

And my sinuses have taken a severe beating. So, but hey. Good times. We got some baseball. We're getting down to nitty gritty. This is going to be our last show we're going to be doing together this season here. Mr. Matt, I'll tell you what, hopefully baseball gets their shit together as we were talking a little bit pre-show and doesn't go on strike. If they do, man, maybe we can do some AAA or something. I don't know. We'll see what DFS ends up doing.

1:28

But bring you on in here, Matt. How was your week? And yeah, what do you think about this strike? And basically, season winding down. Yeah, bittersweet last show. MLB winding down is always – I don't know. I love MLB, so I'm always a little depressed whenever it's winding down. Playoffs are coming, though. Cleveland should be in there. Cleveland is in there. It's just a matter of whether we can win the division. Tight race right now with the White Sox.

1:54

Man, we were talking before, as you alluded to, I just hope they figure this shit out. Whatever it is, however they need to get it done, I hope they do. But I'm not holding my breath. So – I think it's very likely we don't have baseball for at least a part of next year, and that just sucks. So take advantage of it while it's here. We still got good slates, even with NFL going on. Yeah, man, excited to talk this one out with you.

2:19

We got a small one to break down here. Yeah, only six games. I believe there is five.

2:26

Over there on FanDuel but hey before we do that I need to uh just be sure make sure everybody goes and checks us out we got what all these other sports are rolling Matt like we got football definitely is in prime time season I know my personal like season log fantasy team is uh taking a freaking beating I got basically everybody who's heard already yeah that's my team you know basically what's going on but yeah I mean we got the uh shipping games going on I know we got I know all the members and subscribers know how it works uh it's a it's it's a lot to to digest

3:00

But you go over there to the site shows exactly how it works uh different layers to it but hey all kinds of uh money going out the door each and every week I know Matt's uh been uh crushing some football I've seen them already uh pretty close up I think was it last Monday Matt like you were literally the second highest team in the in the million and title ended up winning at Ferguson put them up but for a while like you're you're bad you were in the second group of teams for like late in the fourth quarter I'm tilted man I

3:31

Played like thirty percent dart who was eighty percent on and got hurt obviously and still didn't end up in the winner which was It's like, if you don't get first in those tournaments, you're losing money no matter what, you know? Yeah. Yeah. They are tough. You know, I usually play like maybe four or five teams and I'll put them in a bunch of the high end, like qualifier, you know, satellites, like the thirteen fifty, the four ninety, you know, and stuff like that.

3:56

And, you know, hopefully maybe ship one of those to me. That's like. You know, a little easier. I get, you know, especially if it's the thirteen fifty cube spot. That's that's always pretty fun. But sorry. But that's what I've been shooting for. And I always throw it in the high dollar one. Like you said, I think, you know, a couple of times I've been, you know, lucky when to split it fifty, sixty, seventy ways, whatever.

4:19

But yeah, I mean, you hit one of those and you play like I'm basically playing. I mean, you hit one of those and you get your You know, $10,000 plus it lasts you a while to continue to play. So, yeah, but you're like you said, he's in the game, right?

4:34

And I believe not to you know make it worse for your title literally said he played like ninety percent I know we texted after he had that he had with no dart we texted after I sent him the uh you know the gift of that kid like congratulations nice job of him like all pissed you know what I'm talking about so yeah yeah congrats to him that's how DFS plays out sometimes man like I've been on the other side of it I was surprised to say the least to see him when I opened up when I opened up DraftKings that night to see I was losing money with so much lower on dart but that's the way the cookie crumbled hopefully I get it tonight and uh I'm

5:14

Looking for there have been I don't think there's been a solo shipper on showdown yet this year so hopefully we see one of those soon Yeah, those are definitely tough to find. I mean, for those, you got to leave like a bunch of money. They're so rare, especially the bigger the contests are. I mean, they are, like you said, real hard to find. Yeah, most definitely.

5:33

But I will say, I think, you know, I like, you know, if I'm playing like a qualifier two for DraftKings, like the four ninety, I mean, to me, I feel like I do better in the showdowns than than I do the overall Sunday. So a lot of times I play those four ninety queues. So yeah, I definitely enjoy the showdown slates. It's a lot of fun, that's for sure. All right, what do we got here? We got some baseball, six games.

6:00

I didn't really see too much of any kind of weather that I needed to be concerned about. I mean, you look at the overall lineup of the pitching we got, you know, just look running down, you know, Schlittler, Glasnow, Wu, Seymour, Pivetta, Suarez, Molly, Cantillo, Lambert, Grace Rodriguez. I mean, you're like, hey, that's not a bad, not a bad group of pitchers there. But I mean, you got three guys, four guys over twenty nine percent strikeout percentage on the slate tonight.

6:29

But for me, Matt, I mean.

6:32

It's pretty easy you got woo at the price we have I mean the only knock against them is it's on the road where he's kind of struggled a little bit but you got woo against the Angels who obviously strike out the most I mean with this price $8,500 I see lot of people going that way for me you know you got schlitter and glass now both are very very good been very good on the season uh I I think I just prefer the matchup that glass now has

6:59

Over the Padres and with the salary relief you get over schlitter but I think schlitter is a pretty good pivot because I don't think he's going to be owned as much as as the other Seymour I worried about just because I mean, they got a playoff run coming up. I just don't see – Tampa's been, you know, always they're just a team you worry about yanking their pitcher. So I'd be kind of worried about that.

7:20

Molly seems to be getting some love against the Reds, which – I'm not. I mean, he's pitched well here recently. I got a real good tidbit on Molly for you that I think you'll like. So, yeah, I mean, I just I kind of worry. I mean, they did let Chris Sale go quite a bit, which, you know, them being a playoff. I get worried about these playoff teams wanting to just pull the reins back a little bit.

7:42

You know, maybe these guys get in the seventies and then they start yanking them out. So because, you know, they got some playoff runs coming up and give their guy a little bit of break, but just kind of keep his arm loose. So I do. I am a little bit a little bit concerned about that. But, hey, why do you see pitching? I mean, I mean, I think for me, woo. I mean, we've been picking on Angels all year. So, I mean, that's usually where I start.

8:03

If I see a righty, it's like a decent righty. It's like, all right, he's in pencil. A man looks like a pretty good spot. But, yeah, I mean, I think Schlittler. I mean, against the Rays, I don't love it, but I think that's a pretty decent pivot off of, like, Glasnow, who I think would be probably a little bit more owned than Schlittler. But, I mean, I think Wu and Molly. And I always, when I'm playing Wu, man, I don't know, call me a kid.

8:28

When he gets a strikeout, I'm pulling the red flare, like, woo! You know, like. I don't know. I'm always like joking around with my team, having fun. But Bryan Woo is definitely one that I do like to have fun because I'm Fandu. You only got one pitcher, but I do like to have fun with Mr. Wu. Yeah, Wu looks like it's lock here. I mean, that price point against the Angeles, that play, it's on him. I played him in his last start.

8:51

I've played him almost every start this season. At home against the Angeles at this price point. I mean, the Angeles were fun the past couple days in Sacramento, but now they're in Seattle. Wu looks like an elite play to me. He'll get owned as such, but I'm fine with that. And then I'm good with Glasnow or Schlittler. Glasnow's been a little up and down this year. He's coming off a monster start, but that was against San Francis.

9:17

Now he's facing a Padres team that's fighting for their playoff lives like I don't think I want to use Glass now if I'm playing one lineup here. And the same with Schlittler. You get a Tampa team that just doesn't strike out a ton, that's really good. He's uber expensive. I don't think he's a bad play. But if I'm playing one lineup, it's Wu and it's Mollie. I love the matchup for Mollie. Good price point.

9:44

He's another guy I've used a ton, especially since he's come over to Atlanta where he's been rock solid. And then the coup de grace for Molly here is he's got a million dollar incentive and needs to go six innings tonight to reach it. So I have all the feeling in the world, the brave, let him get that if he's pitching at least decent. So that kind of answers my questions about his length here. So yeah, Too cheap. I love the matchup.

10:11

I'm hoping people kind of sleep on that. It's Molly and woo for me. That's an interesting little tidbit too. Yeah. I mean, uh, the Braves don't seem to be an organization that would, uh, rip that out of their hands. Like if that was the Reds or like the Tigers, even I'd be worried about something like that, you know? So, but, uh, yeah. Say hi to a few people, Michael W. The knee braider. We got Williams in here laughing. G rising is off the shit.

10:41

Yeah. Yeah. Just remember that life lesson I taught you all last year. Do not go underneath a ship in the ocean on a fishing charter to take a shit because it will not work out well for you. So I learned that lesson and that is not fun. It was awful. I felt like I was in a fucking snow globe. So it was shaking rapidly. It was not fun, man.

11:06

But, yeah, that was probably one of the funnier stories I probably told over the times on these shows. But, yeah, either way. All right, we got some pitching here just to wrap up here. I mean, is there anybody cheap? So, like, I know we got some of these guys up at the top. Like, you know, what about, like, Lambert? You know, I mean, he's not anybody.

11:29

I think he'd be a guy, like, I think I could maybe get – you know, maybe fifteen points out of maybe something around there. You know, I don't feel like it's, you know, a ceiling play. But if I'm just looking to get some points out of a cheap pitcher, maybe go there. Grayson Rodriguez, he's going to see what seven lefties hasn't been looking too bad. I mean, he has been giving up some power. Some of his strikeouts have been there.

11:52

I mean, I don't know if I for $5,500. I think that would be a guy that I could possibly leave in. But yeah, I mean, It's thin pickings tonight. I mean, maybe Lambert and Rodriguez, like I said, if you want to go that low. But for me, I think I'd stay up in the high end. Woo's, the Molly's, the Glasnow's, the Schlittler is probably where I'd stay. I'm with you on Grayson.

12:16

Like he's a guy I like to pick on. I think you can use some Seattle bats, but also like he gets the Ballpark FactorsBallpark factors, also called park factors, measure how much a stadium raises or lowers scoring compared with an average park. Altitude, fence distances, foul territory and typical weather shape them, and some parks favor one side of the plate.Check whether a park factor is split by handedness. Some parks boost left-handed power while doing little for righties, and that split can change which hitters you stack.Full explanation ↗. He's uber cheap and Seattle's not good. So I'm with you there. I think he would be the one cheap guy that I would leave in there. And if you want to load up on expensive bats, I wouldn't be surprised if he, you know, has a clean five, six inning outing here and he's got K upside. So I'm with that call.

12:40

And I think too, like just going out the gate to, if I'm sitting there thinking, Hey, I'm gonna, I'm gonna play them. You know, I'm going to play some Grayson Rodriguez. I might even actually say I'm probably in a position where I may stack against him as well. So, like, I'd want to – that'd be a play I think I need to have a handful of guys for me or, you know, a handful of teams for me.

13:04

It's tough to play him in, like, one lineup, no doubt. Yeah, for sure. So, all right, let's see what we got here. So, let's take your top three pitchers. I'm going to say Wu, Molly, and then, oh, man. I'm with you on Glasnow over Schlittler just because of the price point, but I just don't love the matchup. But that said, like, there's really no one else for me. So it's Wu, Molly, Glasnow.

13:37

I think you can make a case for Grayson, like we just talked about, just because I don't love the options and he's so cheap. But I'll leave it as Glasnow as the third. Yeah, I think we're pretty much in lockstep on that. I mean, we only got, what, six games, so I think there's enough offense.

13:53

I mean, there's, what, maybe a handful of teams, five, six teams I thought were in pretty decent spots, so I don't think – I mean, there's two teams that stand out tonight that we'll get to, I think, are going to garner some OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗, and rightfully so, because Brady Singer sucks balls. But, you know, after that, I think it should be pretty interesting. But, yeah, I think we're pretty close in lockstep there for some pitching here tonight. But, like we said, we got six games.

14:21

We got the first one, six-forty-five start. We got – We got your squad down there in Cleveland in a game with a game total sitting at six and a half. We're getting to that time of year where these game totals are getting to be playoff-type numbers, six below seven. You know, you usually don't see that until this time of year. But, yeah, sitting here looking at Mr. Espino against Rangel Suarez, Mr.

14:48

Groundball Man himself, who we really didn't talk too much about there, who I don't – Man, Suarez for me is – I just think there's better strikeout upside today. I mean, I think if I was playing a multiple entry, a bunch of teams, I would leave Suarez in just because he's been decent. But I just think the upside we have with the other pitching options, for me, I don't have any interest in using him. Do you have any interest in Suarez? Not really.

15:17

He's not a guy I use that often. Like, he's a good pitcher. I don't stack against him really, but he's not – Someone I've used a lot recently. I know he's been in better form, but I don't love the matchup. Cleveland's not great, but they don't strike out a ton. So I'm off on him for the exact same reasons. It sounds like you don't love him either. Yeah, he's just he's a great pitcher. I mean.

15:41

When I think ground ball pitchers, he'd be in my short list of guys that probably would come out of my mouth. So, yeah, definitely not somewhere that I'm looking to go for bats. So, I mean, this one's six and a half total. I don't really love it. I can't even really recommend really too many one-offs that I could say. Maybe if you wanted to look at some Red Sox, you know, maybe you could do that if you wanted to. Yeah, I just, I don't see it.

16:13

I feel like I'm pushing it. Yeah, same. I mean, this game, just the weather's not great. Cleveland, I'm not looking to pick on Suarez. This is a must win for Cleveland. The White Sox won today. So Cleveland's got to win to maintain their advantage in the AL Central. Boston facing Espino and Cantillo is a little bit interesting. Man, on another slate, I might have more interest. I will say, like, the slate is small.

16:41

I think to your point, Houston and the Braves get a ton of OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ for good reason. But Bolton, like, Cantillo is not amazing. He's not bad, but he can get hit. So I don't think Boston's a crazy – I don't love their lineup, though. This is mostly a stay-away game for me. You could convince me on a lot here, but nothing I love. And then we got – Let's see here. Next game, seven oh five. So what we got six forty five, a seven oh five, a seven fifteen.

17:13

And then we got the three games on the West Coast out there in that late slate. So we basically got three games on the east side and then we got three games on the west side here tonight. So can be a late one if if if, you know, you're on a couple of them late games. But we got Tampa and the Yankees, another one with a pretty low total sitting at six.

17:35

We got Seymour, who's been pretty decent here recently against Schlittler, who Cy Young potential. So I don't see any need to try to push it and play against either of these guys either. So I'll leave this game total of six alone and move on to something else. I'd rather stack either of the teams in the last game than this one. I'm with you. This is a big cross off. I pussied out last night.

18:00

I liked the Yankees and had a couple lineups with the Yankees and changed them, of course. They absolutely went nuts. So it was not a fun night for me or my wife, for that matter. But we move on to a new day. And, yeah, man, I don't like this game at all. Like I just said, I'd rather scat Bolton or Cleveland, either of these teams. Yeah, I got to agree. I got to agree with that one. But this next game, I think we're going to get some OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗.

18:27

Cincinnati – Going out there to Atlanta. Game total sitting at eight. Braves a pretty big favorite at minus two twenty five. Brady Singer has basically been like a softball pitcher here in recent times. I mean, I was looking at his game log. I mean, he's given up twenty one runs.

18:49

In his last handful of starts which is not good at all uh I mean Braves I mean I like the lefties olsen Baldwin Harris uh I would assume yaz is gonna be in there tonight uh Baldwin probably be uh in that uh in that lead off spot Albies I like so yeah I'd start off there and then that bullpen of the Reds isn't very good so definitely like attacking that Uh, as far as, uh, any Cincinnati bats against Molly, I mean, I think you'd get a little bit of LeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ if you, if you wanted to go there.

19:23

Molly has, uh, struggled here in, well, let me just double check that. So basically Molly's just, he's been good. I was going to say he struggled a little bit, but that was a different chart. I was looking at the wrong damn thing. But, yeah, he's been pretty good. Walk total been good. His strikeouts have been down to lefties, almost half of what they've been to righties. So I guess if I was going to chase him with anything, it'd be a lefty.

19:47

So maybe like Bleday, Ellis Cruz. I mean, if you wanted to go there, if you wanted to get a little leverage, I'm just looking for a reason maybe to attack a pitcher that's going to be probably fairly owned tonight. So, yeah, I think I would do it with some Reds bats. The other thing is like, what about you could use like Ellis with Molly, like Ellis, someone like that, like someone who's got speed, short slate, you know, I don't think Jeremy Pena plays tonight.

20:11

So that's one shortstop option. That's probably not on the slate. So like there are ways to, you know, get different within using Molly. I don't love the Reds as a stack, but I love that Molly, like I expect them to go six for that incentive at least. So I think we'll get linked there. Even if he's not amazing. So he could get there based on his price point in strikeouts and a couple of Reds could get there too. So just intrigued by that idea.

20:38

And then the Braves. Yeah. I mean, they haven't been great lately and I hate the idea of playing them into major chalk, but they look like the second best stack of a slate behind Houston. And we know their upside is real. Acuña is back tonight. So their lineup's deeper.

20:56

I didn't mention him at all and he stinks, but, I'd be mad at myself if I didn't at least mention that Brady Singer, I don't think is like the worst play on the slate because he's not like that much worse than Grayson Rodriguez, even though he's not as good of a DFS pitcher. And yeah, the matchup and the ballpark aren't as good, but Atlanta is going to be maybe the OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ team on the slate, Houston maybe, but then Atlanta.

21:20

So I don't know, man, like, If I were playing enough lineups, I don't think I would cross Brady Singer out. But obviously Atlanta looks good. And if you're playing one lineup, I think you could fully stack Atlanta. Yeah, I like the fully stacking Atlanta idea. Like you said, Houston and Atlanta are going to be the two teams everybody seems to go to. But Singer, his control has been awful. He's at a sixteen percent walk rate the last thirty days. The righties is at thirteen percent.

21:50

The lefties. I mean, this guy's... Just not – he's just not been good. His fly ball rates have been higher. I mean, he's not been good at all. So, like you said, the Braves haven't been – but, I mean, this is a guy they can get right real quick, start feeling good about themselves, rolling down to the end. Look at the Dodgers last time against Singer. I mean, they were, like, great either until they saw Brady Singer, you know. Right, right.

22:14

Yeah, so, I mean – they're getting to that time of year. You're going to want to start getting in your groove going into, uh, to the playoffs. So yeah, I definitely, uh, do like some, some braids, but I, I like what you said earlier too, about, you know, playing Ellis and throwing them in your lineup against, uh, you know, against a pretty ChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ pitcher in, in Molly. So I don't, I don't mind that at all, especially because of the, the stolen base upside.

22:39

I mean, he's, he's, uh, definitely going to try to swipe a bag if he gets on. So I don't mind that call at all. I actually think that would be a good way to get different on a short slate of games. That's definitely a good point. But we got the first game of the night slate, two games at nine forty. We got it's moving on down here. So we got nine four. We got the Astros and the A's.

23:09

We got Lambert who we uh talked about a little bit and then we got uh Barnett I mean we definitely like picking on the a's and that bullpen which is you know why I think Houston especially out in that Sacramento we got a game total of ten and a half it's two and a half runs higher than the uh other two games that we have at eight which is the Cincinnati Atlanta and then the Dodgers and Padres which we'll talk about here coming up but Man, I mean, Alvarez obviously is going to be a really good play.

23:40

The Astros are going to be fairly ChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ here tonight, along with the Braves. But, I mean, I can't blame – I mean, you look at it, I think there's plenty of different ways to play either of the two teams and try to get a little bit different. Barnett's not very good. That bullpen's not very good. We like the park. I mean, you're going to see a bunch of righties basically from the Astros. But, hey, I think they're still a pretty good play.

24:08

Alvarez would be one of the top bats on the slate, obviously. But who do you prefer more then? I guess with OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ and everything else, Matt, would you just prefer the Astros? If you had one team, you stack in the Astros or you stack in the Braves? I do think it's close, but it's got to be the Astros. It's this ballpark for me is the tiebreaker, just like the A's bullpen also. I mean, you hit the nail on the head.

24:32

It'd be easier for me to answer this if like the Braves were the team in Sacramento, because I do think their offense is better than Houston's. But I do think ownership is like kind of close between them. And I think Houston is the best stack, even though Atlanta is the second best stack in my mind. Houston gets the Ballpark FactorsBallpark factors, also called park factors, measure how much a stadium raises or lowers scoring compared with an average park. Altitude, fence distances, foul territory and typical weather shape them, and some parks favor one side of the plate.Check whether a park factor is split by handedness. Some parks boost left-handed power while doing little for righties, and that split can change which hitters you stack.Full explanation ↗. They get the matchup, and they're not even priced up. We just saw the Angeles, like, crazy expensive in this ballpark. Houston is not that.

24:58

I mean, Alvarez is always expensive, so that's no different. But, like, Altuve $4,000. They're going to have guys in the three Ks even cheaper throughout this lineup. Yeah, I mean, I don't think you're crazy to say Atlanta there, but for me, it's Houston. If it's similar ownership, I like Houston more for sure. I think it should be Houston is higher owned, and I don't know if it plays out that way.

25:23

Yeah, I mean, we're sitting at a game total of ten and a half compared to eight. So, I mean, yeah, I mean, obviously a higher team total. The bullpen of the Braves is just awful. So, yeah, I mean, when you compare what you're looking at, I think, yeah, the bullpen of the – it's got more to check off in the box for Houston. So, yeah, I don't – The nine at-bats, too. Like, you have more and more of a chance of facing a position.

25:46

I mean, you never know how stuff is going to play out. But, yeah, I think Houston is the higher upside. Yeah, and that's our thing. You get the ninth inning at-bat guaranteed, too. So – That's another thing. So especially, you know, that just makes really the top, what, four hitters on Houston could get that fifth at bat, right? So, you know, that's what you're kind of looking for.

26:08

So that's why, you know, especially on the road, a lot of people don't normally think about that. Like, a lot of times I'm not worried about playing top of the lineup guys if they're at home. Because, I mean, if they're winning the game, that top of the lineup isn't going to get, you know, potentially get that fifth at bat unless they just nuke it, right? So...

26:25

To me, you're, you know, you're kind of taking away the advantage of that top of the lineup type hitter and get that fit that bat. So yeah, teams on the road, those top three or four hitters, their chances of getting that fit that bat increase immensely. So yeah, I, yeah, I think that's one thing. Like if I'm playing one team, I think about that.

26:42

So I'm like, if I'm in between a guy and they're in the top of the lineup, what's the chances that fit that bat coming along, you know, like they're losing shit, you know? So yeah, either way. Love going off on rants sometimes there, Matt. No, it's not even a rant. I'm totally with you. I think it's a great point. All right, now for the other game we got. We got the Angeles and Seattle. We talked a little bit about Grayson Rodriguez on the hill.

27:10

We talked about maybe possibly using him here. But then we got Wu against the Angeles. I mean, another one, if you're looking for a little bit of upside. Wu's been struggling a little bit with lefties in the last thirty days. His K percentage is down to seventeen percent, where it's normally at like twenty two percent. His ISO is at two thirty three, a little bit higher. He's been getting barreled up a little bit more. His BAB ups higher.

27:35

So, I mean, you know, for me personally, I'm just sitting here looking at you know what do we got here with the lefties like wade meckler balesteros lao you know maybe I could maybe do something like that if you wanted to pluck a one-off of something like that um I guess that's where I'd look at the lefties I'm just not all enamored with the lefties that the Angels are rolling out and then far as Seattle goes you know obviously I don't like the park But, I mean, if you wanted to attack Grayson Rodriguez, I mean, you can do that.

28:07

He's been a little bit better, as I said, with his walks here in recent times. But if you want to get after Grayson Rodriguez, you get after him with some lefties. I mean, you got Crawford, Canzone, the big dumper. You got Naylor. I mean, they got some lefty power. So, you know, I wish the ballpark was better. Maybe I'd go after some of these Mariner bats. But I call the Mariners maybe a little bit sneaky getting after Grayson Rodriguez.

28:31

I think the park for me is just kind of the flag. We look at this the exact same way. I love stacking against Grayson Rodriguez. He gives it up to lefties. I've stacked against him. I think every slate he's on this year. He had used him a little bit, too, like we talked about.

28:44

But, man, tonight – I think it's just like the sneaky low OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ because it's hard to, in this ballpark, think they're going to outscore the Braves and the Astros, even the Athletics, who we didn't really talk about. But the lefty powers there, they run a little bit. I could see using them as mini stacks or, yeah, I mean, it's a small slate. Like the ballpark isn't as big of a deal. There's no course here. Yeah, you've got the Astros in Sacramento, but the Astros aren't bulletproof.

29:14

They're not amazing. If you can get around Alvarez, maybe you can quiet that offense. So I'm with you on Seattle. I think they're interesting. And then the Angeles, nah. I mean, they're not even that cheap. I really respect Wu. And it's like, would you rather stack the Angeles or the Reds here? As much as I talked about Molly earlier, it's got to be the Reds, right? Yeah, I would say the Reds. It has to. I got a problem with the Angeles lefties.

29:47

If the Angeles had better lefties... I was going to say, what lefties are you even talking about? What lefties are you talking about? That's the problem. Like I said, Meckler, Ballesteros, they don't have any. That would be what I'm going to attack them with. That's why I like Wu so much. Wu would be a lock button for me against these Angeles tonight, especially with all the strikeouts they got.

30:09

If I'm playing a hundred and fifty lineups, I'd have probably Wu hundred and forty of them the Angels are kind of expensive too so like what you're not they're they're irrelevant to me on this slate yeah they are a little bit if they get to woo tonight and they win this slate I'll play again tomorrow you know what I mean right yeah but you know that's freaking baseball I mean at least we got some football to watch tonight that's for sure we got what we got the packers tonight against uh Atlanta so Kind of looking forward to that.

30:41

I was this close, man. I'm in this big suicide pool, and I already got cut down to like a third of the people. There's like a thousand people. There's only like three hundred left. I mean, I was this close to taking the Packers today, but I just had a bad feeling. So I'm just going to ride with the damn Dolphins. I do not like the Packers today and Survivor stuff. I mean, I get it. The Falcons have looked awful.

31:02

I like the Falcons a lot in this game tonight. The Packers have not impressed me, and... I do think that Penix is a big upgrade over whatever they were throwing out there last week and the week before, even if you don't think he's great. He's not great, but he's an NFL QB. Those other guys aren't. Yeah, I mean, they do have a very good running back, that being the Falcons, too. So that can definitely help control the game.

31:25

And really, the NFL, you get, what, one or two big plays, and then you throw in a good running back. Any team can beat anybody.

31:31

So but uh and it's tough to prepare for them Thursday games too coming off short weeks so I learned that the hard way in survivor a couple years ago when the rams were like had looked awesome and had a really good record and they were playing a beat up forty niners team the rams were huge favorites this was like two years ago maybe three years ago And honestly, this happened only two times I've ever really played survivor.

31:57

The Rams lost that game to the forty niners. And the other time was like five years ago. Also, the Rams also on Thursday night football against Baker Mayfield. And what team was he playing on at that one game? The rate I can't even remember. But it's a Thursday night game that Baker Mayfield won. Maybe it was the Panthers. I can't even remember anymore. But Thursday night, yes, I'd stay away from it. Yeah, I remember when he played for – I forgot who he played for.

32:23

But, yeah. I mean, it's tough. I mean, those teams, they come in, right? If they're division rivals, it's easier for them to prepare, right, because they already have all the notes and stats. When they're, like, cross-conference rival teams, like, those are the games I generally expect to be higher scoring because they don't – you know, the offense is generally run. They don't have the defensive – No, it's like those division games, man. It's hard sometimes for them to.

32:49

I learned last week when I had a couple of teams I stacked up on Sunday that had the Bears and the Vikings thinking that, you know, the Bears can't stop anybody. And they're going to score a bunch of points because Johnson a madman. And then, you know, NFL, man, you know, next thing you know, it's nine to fucking six in the fourth quarter. And I was like, are you shitting me? It's so annoying. Yeah, actually, the game I'm talking about, Baker was playing for the Rams.

33:15

They won. He had just signed with them. Remember that? They beat the Raiders. I couldn't even remember what I'm talking about. But to your point, Thursday night football has beat me both times. Both times the Rams, one time on them, one time against them. I'm with you. Stay away. Yeah, Thursdays, yeah, stay away, definitely. We got one game left, Ten-Ten. We got the Padres and Dodgers.

33:37

I would assume they could end up seeing each other in the playoff here at some point. We got Glass now going up against Pivetta. I mean, I don't mind picking on Pivetta here with some Dodgers. Dodgers are going to be pretty expensive. Pavetta has not looked good his last thirty days. He's been getting beat up by both sides of the plate. He's even been giving up fly balls at a forty-two percent rate to righties in the last thirty days. Up from his normal thirty six percent.

34:07

So you got a fly ball pitcher on the hill who's not missing bats, been getting barreled up at least almost five percent more than he has on the regular season this last month here by both sides of the plate. Dodgers are going to want to stay in tune here. Obviously getting rolling into the playoffs. They got glass now on the hill. They've been hot recently winning all kinds of games.

34:28

I think I'd put the Dodgers probably third tonight, maybe with the Mariners up there in that same kind of bucket. Mariners, Dodgers, outside of the Braves and Astros. But I think the Dodgers, with all that power, would be a pretty sneaky team that probably ain't going to get any OwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ outside because you're going to see quite a bit on the Braves and the Astros. So I don't mind.

34:50

I just don't like picking on that Padres bullpen, which is a kick in the ass, which is not something we really want to do or really that Dodger bullpen. But, yeah, I mean, we can get to Pivetta pretty early. It's just the back half of that I'm going to worry about a little bit. Yeah, I mean, I'm not scared of Pivetta at all, and I do think the Dodgers are right.

35:13

It's either the Dodgers or the Mariners, right, as the third team, and I think the other team's the fourth. But I do think Atlanta and Houston are so much better tonight that I'm not going to play the Dodgers. But to that point, like you were saying, I mean, it's the Dodgers, and they will be lower owned than Atlanta or the Astros. I just respect Pivetta still in that bullpen, man, like, I just can't get there over Atlanta or Houston.

35:40

The only reason I would do so is ownership. And I think they're owned enough. So I'm out. I did look here. I do remember if Arizona, I think the Padres need like one more game. And I think of Arizona. They play Arizona though. They play Arizona the last series. Yeah, yeah. And Arizona won today. So the Padres are going to want to get the job done tonight. And, you know, they got Glassow on the hill.

36:05

If Pivetta is struggling, my bad to cut you off, they're not going to let him eat it, you know? Good point. Yeah, for sure. They're definitely not. They're going to want to get that done and over with. They're not going to want that pressure anymore. Of having to – at least they get that series at home against Arizona. But you don't want to give a team life. I mean, if I'm Arizona rolling in there, I'm thinking, you know, I'm in pretty good shape.

36:34

But, yeah, so that game definitely has some meaning here tonight. But, Matt, who are your favorite stacks, sneaky stack? I know we got Dodgers that are – we got some Astros and Braves out there tonight. But where else are you looking? And, hey, we'll just throw a home run call out there for everybody for shits and giggles. So, Stacks, we will go with Houston, Atlanta, Seattle. Sneaky stack.

36:59

I'm going to go off the board and say Cleveland, just because we've seen these teams, like the White Sox today, needed a win. They pounded the Royals. Cleveland needs a win. Boston's not playing for anything. So maybe we see Cleveland's bats kind of go after it a little bit. Home run call. Let's go with – man, he's just sticking out to me. Jose Altuve going yard tonight. Jose Altuve. I do like that one.

37:30

Yeah, for me, I'd like his Astros and Braves to be up at top. I think the Dodgers are really interesting. I think even if I was playing one team, I think I'd either be going – I think I would probably go Dodgers, to tell you the truth. I'd probably end up having part of them over on FanDuel tonight with some Dodgers. Stack them up.

37:50

I don't know if I'm going to go on the other side of that, which two of the two between the Astros and Braves I'm going to be looking at. I do like some of them Seattle bats. As far as a homer goes, I'll just say Matt Olson. I know it's pretty easy.

38:04

But Olson, for me, should be in a pretty good spot to hit, I believe, his forty second or forty third homer, I believe, which is a hell of a season for Matt Olson. I mean, how lucky you get. You get rid of Freddie Freeman. You replace him with Matt Olson. Like, come on, man. Why can't my team get lucky like that? Right. But, Matt, I'll tell you what. I appreciate everybody joining us here. Do us a favor. Hit that like button.

38:31

Hit that subscribe button. I sure now hope that we have a season here next year. Appreciate everybody joining us. Wait, we're still going to have the written content up there on the site.

38:41

Uh as the season goes through and I'm sure we'll do some playoffs and I have some fun still but uh this is going to be I know my last show of this regular season for baseball appreciate everybody joining us and all the fun and love we got we will catch you guys all next year good luck everybody let's ship it where is that damn I do that every damn time

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