MLB DFS Process | DraftKings & FanDuel Picks, Plays & Slate Breakdown | Thursday, 08/20/26

I mean, we got the Giants on the slate. Gavin Williams, highest strikeout percentage, almost thirty two percent. It's got a pretty bad Giants team that obviously we're going to be picking on here coming up in recent times. And then we got Seymour, Seymour Butts at twenty eight, almost twenty nine percent. Gets a matchup versus the Blue Jays. And we got George Kirby versus the Brewers. We got Rup Gasser, jump maybe in play here today.

But, I mean, just looking at the top hand, I mean, Gavin Williams has had a few of those starts where he just hasn't looked very good. But it's the times he has looked good. I mean, the last three out of his five starts, matter of fact, this would make it five out of seven starts, five out of eight starts, actually. He's had in the mid-thirty points over on DK. So we know he's got the strikeout capability.

He had, what, five games in a row where he had – Ten or more strikeouts. His last two games, he had five and seven. So we definitely know the strikeout matchups there. He's got a Giants team that, I mean, more or less is mirroring a minor league team, minor league lineup up at this point. But Williams, I mean, with the strikeout percentages he's got, he's got some strikeouts with Devers, Adams, Eldridge, Koss at the bottom of that lineup.

He's got, what, one, two, three, four guys that – I would call non-strikeout threats Gilbert, fourteen percent, Jungho Lee, eight percent. And then you got a couple of guys in the teens. But I mean, we're looking at a guy overall this year, thirty two percent strikeout, the left side, thirty percent to the right side. So, I mean, he's looked pretty good his last thirty days. His strikeout percentages have actually picked up.

Which is which is interesting um but I mean he still does have Gavin Williams still does have a pretty high fly ball right to the left side has been getting barreled up by the left side um but I mean are we really afraid of this Giants lineup I don't think so I think that's why Gavin Williams gonna be pretty popular today rightfully so uh Seymour Seymour butts here against uh gets the Toronto Blue Jays he's been pretty good here his last five starts he's been anywhere between twenty and twenty seven points So he's definitely in play for me.

Definitely a favorite here for the Rays against that Blue Jay team. You're sitting there looking at a game total of seven and a half and he's a minus one sixty five favorite. So I think that's interesting at $8,800. And I don't I don't know, man, I can't buy into some George Kirby. I don't know about you. I just don't like the matchup. Against, uh, against the brew crew with his low strikeout rate. And then you got Landon Rupp. I mean, he's been bad recently.

Uh, he's just been a tough click here. Recent times has not looked good. I mean, his game log, his last four starts have not looked at good at all. He's been struggling mightily. Uh, but as you mentioned, he gets a Cleveland team here that, uh, is a pretty heavy favorite, almost a minus or two hundred in a game total of seven.

Of course, he gets that matchup with, uh, with Gavin Williams, but, uh, you know, maybe I, I don't mind the dueling pitcher aspect, but he's the only other guy rough above $8,000. We only got four guys above $8,000. I mentioned Gasser and jump, maybe throw them in. Uh, maybe we can get to McGreevy and Singer, but man at the top here, Matt, I, it looks kind of ugly. I didn't think it's Williams and see more for me.

I mean, if I'm playing on DK, I try to figure it out with those two. I think that's pretty much where I lie. Maybe if I had a few other teams, maybe I'd, take a chance on some of these lower end guys, but man, Gavin Williams for me, it'd be pretty easy click to be my SP one, both sites. I don't think it's that difficult for me. It's pretty easy to, to get what you want.

We don't really have to seem too many high price offenses today that I think offense is going to be pretty spread out. So for me, I'm going to go with the safer end on the pitching today and Williams and Seymour fill that out for me. What do you think? I agree with you wholeheartedly. I think those two guys are like the clear number one and number two on this slate. And it's not close. I mean, Williams. Yeah.

You could talk me into like stacking some San Francis and large field stuff in non Gavin Williams lineups, but on paper, He's by far the best pitcher on this slate in an amazing matchup. Talk about this San Fran lineup. It's awful. Minor league-ish, as you mentioned. So, yeah, I'm in on Gavin like I was in on Messick yesterday. I don't feel as good about Seymour, but he's also been really good. Great matchup. This Toronto team stinks right now. No problem picking on them.

Yeah, $8,800 is a hefty tag for him, but he's deserved it, especially on this slate. So I think those two guys are the clear one and two. And I like the pitch count, too, not to cut you off. His last three starts, he's been up in the nineties where before, you know, it was it was a reach for him to get to eighty. So I do like in his last three starts, too.

He's had, you know, what, ninety three, ninety eight, ninety pitches. So that that helps me feel a little better because we know how Tampa is with their pitchers. It's a great call. I mean, how can you not like that just a little bit more, especially when you're paying full freight for him? So, yeah, I think it's those two guys. And then you want to make cases for Gasser, Jump. Kirby's tough for me because, like, I just – I don't know.

The only reason I would play Kirby is an ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ discount off of Seymour or Williams. But I like those two a lot more. And I'm not going to be playing enough lineups for me to really want to get different there. So – I'm with you. It's the top two guys. Much rather get different with my bats because I think there's a bunch of good stacks today. McGreevy is cheap enough and the Reds are bad enough where you could play him.

But you could also stack the Reds here, too, for sure, because he is not good. And I feel like this is a little bit similar to the last day slate we had. I don't know. Nate's might've been feeling, it might've been, I can't remember the circumstances of the show, but I feel like it was last Thursday and the Reds were on the slate against Davis Martin, who also stinks and the Reds were the team you needed.

So yeah, I'm interested in, we'll get to stacks, but McGreevy's just cheap enough against a bad red team. It reminds me a lot of Davis Martin versus them last week. It really does. Yeah. I mean, it's, uh, it gets kind of ugly past those top two.

It gets, uh, little uncomfortable with some clicks but uh hey Orioles you know it's a free show you got a chance to click off just like I have a chance to block your ass and ban you see ya so either way uh yeah pitching's just uh a little bit you know just I mean like when you start getting down in these cheaper guys here I mean like dobnek uh McGreevy I mean I

Just feel like you know with a guy like dobnek I see you know was asked in the chat there I mean he's got a twelve percent thirteen percent k rate to lefty sixteen percent he's been walking a lot of guys I mean that's just a recipe for disaster I mean I'm looking for some upside I mean, I think if Seymour and Gavin Williams go off, I mean, you're going to have to have those two, period.

Like, I mean, you're going to have to literally hope one of those two fail and then pick the right one. Because I just think those are the two with upside and they're both going to be probably highly owned, I would assume. But after those two, you know, it just like I said, it's just more of a it's more of a reach. I just I mean, I did see I did see Bieber at the bottom there, you know, really cheap.

$6,000 I mean he had a decent start last time out he had uh he went six innings $5,000's gave up uh one earned run gave up a solo shot you got any interest in in the beebs I can't do it he just hasn't been good and I feel like last start was more of an outlier than than anything else that said like I kind of hope he's okay. Cause I don't know if I want to stack Tampa here.

And when he's been bad, he puts a lot of guys on base and you know, that obviously leads to big innings. I mean, I get it like the name value. He's so cheap, but give me like a gauge jump. Who's not that much more expensive over him. Yeah. I, I just, I can't do Bieber right now. And I see someone who mentioned Dobnak in the chat. That's not for me. Sure.

He's been pretty good, but there's a lot of noise in those numbers, and I expect a negative regression to hit sooner rather than later. I mean, Dobnak is striking out. Fourteen percent of hitters. That's insane. And his ERA of one seven three is really good. His expected of four fifty seven is not so. I'm waiting for that start where Dobnak just gets destroyed. Might not happen today because the A's stink.

Maybe he has another good start, and if you play him and he does well, congrats to you. He won't be on my teams. One thing else, too, I wanted to add about Gage Jump, just looking at him here. Man, his control has been just fucking awful the last thirty days. He's walking at nineteen percent of the lefties, sixteen, almost seventeen percent of righties.

The last thirty days overall in the season he's at a twelve and a half percent walk percentage of to lefties but I mean you just look at his numbers too I think another thing that stood out for me was he's not been good at home but he's been really decent on the road so I think he's like you know you you're pitching in a crackerjack box over there uh out there in the uh Sacramento he feels like you know he probably is you know chicken to keep it around the plate that's probably why he's walking so many guys but uh you know I just The difference in ERA is almost three and a half runs from home to the road.

So I think that's, uh, I think that's, you know, definitely something, um, you know that uh that I'm looking at I feel like you need to ban piece of sausage too for his awful awful taken chat about my toys in the background these wwf figures from the early nineties that are probably worth more than pizza sausage life himself so we will not take slander about my wwf stuff in the background there you know We agree with that too.

Like you can't, you know, it's like ripping on me for having baseball cards in the background. Like, you know, there's some cards back there too. Like, I mean, listen, I got, it's like, is everybody like the early fucking like people out in the world today? Just anger. Like everybody want to, you know, are we just choosing violence today? Like, you know, I don't get it. Whatever. It's a free damn show. Like keep, I mean, I don't understand people sometimes like whatever.

I don't really care but we ain't gonna let the bad apples ruin the fun for the rest of us I mean I'm surprised I haven't got yelled at for calling them the indians or you know some other that I usually catch slack for which is totally okay with me I mean it is what it is it's like you know you call the canadians you call them the habs all of a sudden you're you're oh you're you're bad like I don't know it's my nickname I don't even know that one I didn't know that that was bad honestly never did I mean, I guess it gets political if you start calling the team what they're not.

I don't know. I mean, everything turns into politics, which is stupid. But, I mean, if I want – I mean, the team is the team, whatever I want to call them. I mean, fuck, I call the Tigers the shitty kitties. I call them all kinds of different things, you know, when you're talking with your friends. I mean, it is what it is. We're sports fans. We're all crazy. That's what Fanatic stands for. The people in Detroit hate when they call them the Motor City Kitties.

Yeah, because it kind of sounds like girly-ish. That's why I like calling them that, yes. You know, like here in Detroit, we can't wait for the bears to come in so we can start chanting Hammond Bears. You know, like we can't wait for that kind of crap, you know. But, yeah, so either way. But, yeah, like Drew says, maybe no morning coffee yet. You get these people in it. Go smoke a fatty. Get you a nice sativa doobie. Put it in your mouth.

Light it and suck on it for a minute. And you'll feel a little bit better. But, yeah, like you said, negative Nancy's, Karen's. I mean, we don't care. We get it all. Like trying to predict DFS baseball is one of the toughest freaking things you can possibly do. I've learned that a long time ago. And I've been playing this game for a long damn time.

And I've seen many that are really supposedly good come and go and never play again because they can't take the beat down. So either way. But, yeah, good times, good times. Let's get to some hitting. We got the six games. You know, let's back up, rewind. My brain got a little messed up. So other than Seymour and Gavin Williams, do you feel good about playing anyone else? Like I said, I mean, jump scares me a little bit because of his walk issues.

Gasser, I don't mind picking on that Seattle offense. That's just been garbage. You know, maybe Singer and McGreevy. I think that's more of a liquor bottle type play. Uh, and then if I really want to start doing shots at Jameson or screwball, maybe you could throw in some Bieber, but yeah, I mean, it's tough news, but I just think I'd stay up the top. I mean, feeling differently.

I feel like there's no one I feel good about outside of the top two guys, but there are other guys in play. Cause I could see jump pitching while here, you know, there's other guys we mentioned Gasser. You talked about the matchup. Um, There's certainly other options in tournaments.

If I were playing one-fifty, I wouldn't just load in Williams and Seymour, but if I'm playing one lineup, it's hard to not just play those two guys and get different with bats if that's your prerogative. Yeah, I mean, I think offense should be fairly spread out here, but as you see, I got the stone pulled up here. We got our first game. We got the Cards and Reds. We're sitting here looking at a game total of little bit over pretty close to nine in some areas.

So we got decent game here for some hitting. We got Brady Singer and McCreevy who we just talked a little bit. Are we even interested in either of these two pitchers?

But yeah, I can't really say I think I do prefer the red side in this one here against uh against McGreevy McGreevy I mean it's k percentages pretty low to the left side fifteen percent so far on the season he's been getting barreled up almost eleven percent so ellie de la cruz blade I think uh would be interesting top of that lineup but uh yeah I mean After that, I think the cards would be a little bit further down for me, picking on Singer.

But I think the Reds would definitely be interesting. I don't think any offense stands out today like we've seen in the past week here with Dodgers and so forth. But I think the Reds would be interesting, especially in that park we like to play in, Great American Small Park. I think both teams got to be in play here for sure. I mean, both pitchers can get got, Singer and McGreevy. I mean, they both are not good.

I think McGreevy is slightly worse, but I do think the Cardinals lineup is better than the Reds. So I think both these teams got to be like top tier stacks today. I wonder, I'm interested to see, I should say, how ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ breaks down. I bet it's really close between the Cards, the Reds, and a couple other teams. I'm with you. I think it's a spread out slate. You can kind of just plant your flag on who you want.

Both these teams got to be top tier stacks today. Singer, just looking at his numbers, you know, I don't know how you feel, but like when we start getting later in the season here, I really look at pitchers last thirty days a little bit more than I do in the time because you disinterest, arm fatigue, so forth. You know, sometimes, too, you start, you got to watch pitch counts as the time goes on. There's no better example of that than Paul Skeens.

Go ahead. Sorry. Yeah, exactly. You know, Paul Skeens, exactly. I mean, you get to go home to Libby Dune every night. Like, what the fuck do you care when your team's out of it? I'm a happy man going home. I don't give a shit. But, yeah, I do think that that kind of matters. But, you know, in the last thirty days, Singer walk percentage to the righties has been up a little bit here. His ground ball percentages are still decent.

He's not as good of a ground ball pitcher to the left side as he is to the right side. But I mean, when I start seeing numbers click up in the walk percentage area, and hard hit rate and stuff like that. It does concern me a little bit when, when I'm on some of them guys, but yeah, I think both teams are in play. I got the Reds a little higher.

I mean, of the twelve teams, I think I'd have both of these on the upper half six of the teams, but I do think the Reds are a little bit more interesting for me than, than I just think they got a little bit more power. All right. Let's see here. What other game we got here? We got the next one here. We got the, the, Indians and the Giants. We got a pretty decent pitching matchup. I don't have any interest in any Giants.

I don't even have any interest in any of the one-offs if you weren't playing any Gavin Williams lineups. I mean, I guess maybe you could look at a Devers if you wanted to go that route. Landon Rupp, on the other hand, has had some issues here in recent time. He has not been good. He's had all kinds of walk issues. I just wish your team over there was hitting a little bit better. I really don't like the lineup. I haven't really been playing them here.

I don't see any reason for me to go there this time. Maybe you could tuck me into some Cleveland, but I can't do it. They haven't been hitting at all here in recent times, so it's kind of hard for me to give up. Just forget about all that and play them here today. I just can't do it. Yeah. I don't blame you, man.

I mean, Ralph is someone I like to use when he's at home and I like to, I don't necessarily want to pick on him on the road, but I'm more, I'm more willing to pick on him on the road. Obviously a big ballpark downgradeBallpark FactorsBallpark factors, also called park factors, measure how much a stadium raises or lowers scoring compared with an average park. Altitude, fence distances, foul territory and typical weather shape them, and some parks favor one side of the plate.Check whether a park factor is split by handedness. Some parks boost left-handed power while doing little for righties, and that split can change which hitters you stack.Full explanation ↗ for him going from San Fran to Cleveland. And I think you can use pieces of Cleveland, but as a full stack, It's just hard for me to get on board there.

They will run a little bit like their lineup just right now with no DeLotte or no Joe Adell. You got Bazana hitting second. I like it because he runs, but he really hasn't been good. So I think my favorite piece of Cleveland is Angel Ganau, Janau, top prospect, you know, is in the middle of that lineup, switch hitter. So I don't mind some pieces of Cleveland, but hard for me to want to full stack them. And the Giants, On paper, I don't like them at all.

They just offer a really, really crazy amount of leverageLeverageLeverage is the edge you gain by rostering a play the field is underweight on, compared with how often it ends up in winning lineups. When that play outscores the popular option most lineups chose instead, you gain ground on those lineups, though the rest of your roster still decides where you finish.Look for leverage on players connected to the chalk, like the other side of a popular game or a teammate who can steal the popular player's touches.Full explanation ↗ on a small slate. And they also get a big ballpark upgrade. So if I were playing one fifty, I would definitely have some giant stacks. But, you know, I can't sit here and say I want to play them in single entrySingle-EntryA single-entry contest allows each user exactly one lineup. It can be a cash game or a tournament.In single-entry, one or two contrarian decisions are usually enough. Pair a strong, popular core with a lower-owned piece instead of fading everything the field likes.Full explanation ↗. But I'll say this like yesterday night with Messick in a similar spot as Gavin Williams.

You know, Gavin Williams is the better DFS pitcher than Messick, and I'm sure Gavin Williams will be higher owned than Messick was last night. The Giants and the big eight eighty eight were unowned, not like one percent, like all of them were zero percent ownedOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗. So if you're telling me that no one is going to play the Giants, I'm interested. Obviously, we won't know that going in and I probably won't play them personally, but you get a crazy amount of leverage.

So got to shout that out.

Man they're just coming out of the woodwork today Matt like this I'm just I got the button ready anybody else wants what was that one I didn't even see it said if you're taking advice from these two you might as well not even play I mean dude I've been to more live finals and you've had girlfriends bro so

You know you can uh whatever you want I mean give me a break so either way but uh yeah I can't uh I can't get on board with uh anyone I mean it's hard to play offenses when you got a game total sitting at seven so I'm uh I'm off on that one but we got that twelve forty game I forgot to mention that St. Louis game twelve forty uh red St. Louis and then we got the two at the one ten so that Cleveland game that one ten and then uh this Toronto and uh Tampa Bay game is also at

Uh one ten I mean we're sitting here looking at Shane Bieber I mean I know it's pretty hard this dude's been walking quite a bit of lefties he's at fourteen fifteen percent walk rate here to uh to lefties has been getting barreled up by both sides of the plate twelve percent eleven percent so far this year his woba is pretty high even the third uh three eighty two to the right side ground ball percentage mid-lean ground ball pitcher still.

I mean, but he has been giving up a lot more fly balls to the left side. So, I mean, obviously Junior Caminero is going to be in play with anybody pitching, but I mean, with the barrel rates being high both sides of the plate, I mean, I can see Tampa being fairly popular today. I don't know if I'm going to be able to afford like a Junior Caminero and then get up to some of these high-end pitchers here today, though. So I think that is definitely a concern.

But I'd have to raise up there the top end of the offenses here today against the Biebs. But, yeah, I mean, Tampa, not bad. I mean, team – run total of sitting in the mid fours. There are some teams higher, but I mean, I think this matchup against Bieber looks pretty interesting.

Pick on the, pick on the Biebs here, Tampa, pretty heavy favorite, but yeah, I mean, I don't know if I can jam in junior with Gavin and Seymour, but I mean, you can still build a fairly decent team, even if you don't have junior in your lineup. Yeah. You just like the right stack. Cause they're in a good spot against Bieber. I mean, for sure. Bieber puts guys on base. Whenever you do that, you're susceptible to big innings. Yeah, hard not to like Tampa here.

And then the only thing I'll say about Toronto is Sabre does like them. You know, Seymour going to get a lot of love. He's not like some bona fide ace. So Toronto's got some guys that can hit lefties. I don't even hate using one or two of those guys with Seymour in a lineup. But for me, it's all about the Rays. I like Seymour, and I like the Tampa stack.

Yeah, I'm just trying to decide if Tampa, I don't really think any offense is going to be overly high owned today. I'm just trying to feel if Tampa is probably may fit that bill to where they're going to probably get more ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ than everybody else. But I don't really think we're going to see a chalkyChalkChalk is the most popular, highly owned play on a slate. The term comes from sports betting, where the favorite is called the chalk.Don't label chalk good or bad. Ask whether each popular play deserves its ownership, then decide which chalk you'll eat and which you'll fade.Full explanation ↗ type offense today. Do you? No, I think St. Louis and Cincinnati are probably the two highest owned, but nothing crazy at all.

I think it's pieces from a lot of offenses are popular. Yeah, I agree with that. I mean, this is even kind of slate too, you know, when you talk about roster construction, maybe, you know, stacking one team, throwing in some, you know, some high power bats in with their stacks. I've been noticing a lot of people doing that. I always like to go back and kind of view and see what winning lineups, how they looked and all that fun stuff, how they built their lineup.

It seems like more and more people are sticking with one stack, throwing in the two versus two or two V two, you know, two players from one team, two from another. So, yeah, just interesting to see how, you know, the game keeps evolving. That's for sure. But, all right, moving on. We got next game. And I just wanted to comment. I just wanted to comment.

Real quick on uh nasir said jay's really can't hit lefties I don't I think that was in response to me saying that like you could use a batter to against Seymour because he's going to be popular and yeah they don't they haven't been good against left-handed pitching but the top five of their lineup individually all profile well and have done well against right-handed pitching at times at least McAdoo is raking in the minors so is Cameron Alejandro Kirk we know George Springer obviously in Okamoto so that's not like five easy outs here for Seymour I mean all those guys McAdoo and Cameron might be but all those guys have power you can use one off them in any lineup yeah I mean Seymour does have a

Fly ball lean I mean just because we you know we feel like he's a top end pitcher today I mean there are still some flags there for sure I mean playing guys that have fly ball rates like he has is pretty high. I mean, his fly ball rate is pretty high. So, I mean, definitely a little bit of a concern. I mean, if you don't like Seymour, I'd feel better about playing a one-off against Seymour than I would against Gavin Williams.

Yeah, and I'm playing Seymour. I just wanted to call it out because it's a small slate, and levers get you a long way on slates like this. Yeah, yes, sir.

All right so uh moving on here we got the two o'clock games here we have the a's here against uh the a's and Royals what are we looking at here Gage Jump against Dobnak Royals sitting there with that uh four point six team total a's just below four I can't say that I really have any interest in the A's against Dobnak. They just haven't been very good here in recent times. So I can't say I'm really looking at that.

On the other side of that one with Kansas City, I mean, it's just been hard for me to play Kansas City. I think Jump is, you know, he's been a fairly decent pitcher on the road as we were talking about. I mean, maybe Bobby Witt. I mean, you could always play Bobby Witt. Maybe Garcia, if you wanted to look there. I just don't really see the power that I'm looking for. We got more hate comments.

It's funny, too, because Jason Smith, his comment's funny because, wow, we made a point of mentioning how we much prefer the thirty-day stats when we're talking about pitchers right now in this season.

And I'm just I'm not I can't even I'm not even gonna dignify him with a response besides that right uh jason you know these clowns are hilarious what do you guys just keep guys same guy keep coming back with your burner account it must be one of our must be one of our competitors who worry about us all the time I'm getting paid to make a DFS show I'm getting paid to make a DFS show that you're watching so who's the loser yeah exactly It's hilarious to me.

But either way, I don't get it. Everybody's just being an asshole today. Just go outside and kiss your neighbor, hug your kids, do something else, then worry. And if you got that much hate and anger, you shouldn't gamble anyway because you're a fucking bad apple and you bring bad juju. Go take your juju somewhere else. Go take your ball somewhere else, man. So either way. We're moving on. We don't care about these losers. I'll just keep firing away at them. Either way, we got next game.

Let's take a peek here. We got the Braves and White Sox. Man, White Sox come out of nowhere this year. I saw they had a one percent chance to win the Central Division when the season started. I mean, damn, you probably would have got some healthy odds in that one. We got Grant Holmes and Anthony Kaye here today. I mean... I don't mind picking on Grant Holmes. I mean, he's not very good against lefties.

Murakami, obviously, he's been smacking the shit out of the baseball. You got pretty good other guys, Ben Attendee, Colson Montgomery. That bullpen isn't very good. So, yeah, I think definitely interested in some White Sox. I wouldn't have them up at the top of my list here. But Holmes has not been looking good. His control has been off here recent times. Last thirty days been walking thirteen percent of lefties. He's been getting barreled up by both sides of the plate.

So ground ball percentage still mid lean to the left side. But the right side is not very good. He's been giving up almost forty percent fly balls his last thirty days. His Woba has been getting beat up. So, yeah, I think I got some interest in some White Sox here. As far as Atlanta goes against K, we're obviously going to want some of the right side bats. So.

I do prefer to play the Braves against righties uh k has uh not been very good against uh against righties so far this season for a strikeout rate been down to fifteen percent four actually the same numbers go for the last thirty days but he's been getting barreled up quite a bit here by righties too so uh I think the Braves got a place on this slate I mean we know they got some power I'd probably put them in my top five in the upper half, but I think the White Sox, for me, are definitely one of the top stacks here today.

I'd put them right up there with the Rays. I think I may even have the White Sox even a little higher than the Rays. I like both these teams, too. I mean, the Braves have been shitty lately. They've lost five of six. They just got swept by Minnesota, but it's still – I mean, this lineup is still really good. We've seen stretches from them before where they – and they bounce back because their lineup's amazing. So, yeah, I'm in on Atlanta, and I like the White Sox a lot.

I think the White Sox are lower on. Holmes isn't good. I think this game is more offensive-minded than the field does, I'm hoping at least. So, yeah, I'm with you here. Yeah, I still can't get over it. I mean, the White Sox fan, I mean, how fun would it be a White Sox fan? Literally thinking you've got a damn chance, and then all of a sudden here you are, top of the division, looking good.

But I just think that goes back to what we were talking about at the top of the show, how bad the American League's been all damn season. And they're playing in a shit-ass division that they get to play the Royals a bunch of times. The Tigers haven't been good. So definitely, definitely – Something there.

But yeah, I get it needs there was also mentioning that Bray's bullpen is been fairly good which which does hurt but I Yeah, I mean, in this slate here, Nate, like we were saying, there's just no offenses that really stand out. So I think offense is going to be pretty spread out. But I do like the White Sox and Rays. I think those are my two favorites.

It's definitely not a perfect spot for the White Sox to Nate's point, but it's a good enough spot against Holmes on a small enough slate. And I think the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ is low enough where they are – really intriguing to me, if nothing else. I mean, I do think ownership's flat. Like the only team that's not going to be owned is San Fran and Toronto to a certain extent. Yeah. And Seattle. I don't think you're going to see too much on Seattle. Yeah, probably not.

That lineup's just been terrible. But yeah, so we agree. White Sox, definitely one of my favorite stacks.

Of the day then we got uh the last one here on this uh day time slate here on a Thursday we have uh Seattle and Milwaukee we got uh George Kirby up against the brew crew and then we have Robert Gasser the lefty going into Seattle man I mean Anytime I sit there and look at the brew crew, you know, first thing I like to do is look at fly ball percentages.

George Kirby, the last thirty days, fly ball percentages have been up fairly high, especially the left side. All season's been almost at thirty percent. He's actually six, seven percentage points higher to the right side here in recent times. K percentages have been awful. Last thirty days, forty five at bats, forty six yards. To the left side. So pretty even over the last thirty days.

But I mean, dude, he's been walking fifteen percent of lefties, six percent or I mean, striking out fifteen percent of lefties, six percent of righties. I mean, he's just not getting the job done. I mean, that's just not going to be acceptable. He's been getting beat up by righties, too. So, man, I mean, I think Milwaukee could have a place on this slate against George Kirby. I don't like the park. But I just like the brew crew. I mean, they do everything.

They steal bags. I mean, I put them up there in the upper half of the teams here today. I don't think the – Dan, you like Milwaukee? You like Milwaukee and Nades like Seattle. What world are we living in? You know – That's fine. They could be an offensive game. I mean, normally I'm trying to talk needs off the Brewers, you know, in certain spots. It's just usually if there's a ground ball pitcher.

But I mean, Kirby just hasn't been very good here in recent times. So that's kind of what I'm basing this off of. His strikeout percentages have been really low. Ground ball percentage has been low. He's been giving up a lot of fly balls. So, I mean, that's what I'm looking at. So that's why I do like the Brewers. I think they're sneakier.

I don't think they're going to be as highly owned, but like I said, there's, you know, the, the ownershipOwnershipOwnership is the percentage of lineups in a contest that include a given player. Projected ownership is an estimate made before lock; actual ownership is posted once the contest locks.Ownership isn't something to avoid; it's something to build around. The goal is understanding how the field is likely to build, then finding your edge relative to that.Full explanation ↗ is going to be pretty spread out for offenses. So I wouldn't discount the brew crew, even though I do not like the park. We just generally don't play out there in Seattle, but, or Milwaukee, I'm sorry, but, uh, I don't, I just don't like the park there. Seattle, on the other hand, against a Gasser. I mean, I, uh, I don't love it either.

I, I just don't like, I think I'd rather prefer to play Gasser. Uh, but Gasser, if you look at his numbers, his Woba is, uh, been up a little bit against the right side here so far this year. He's got a three-fifty-eight Woba ground ball percentage, thirty-one percent fly ball percentage, almost at, uh, thirty percent as well. So, I mean, if you wanted to play Gasser, I'd prefer to, uh, Play Gasser against the Mariners. I don't really want to pick on them.

I just don't like the lineup. I mean, a Rosarena, J-Rod definitely in play, Ward up at the top. I'd rather play the Brew Crew in this one than the Mariners. But for me, I don't love either side of it. They're down a little bit. I prefer the Reds. I prefer the Cards. I prefer the White Sox. But I think there's a place here for the Brew Crew. I'm with you all over all around here.

I think there's definitely a place for both these stacks on this slate. But I like them less than the other teams we've talked about. We've seen Milwaukee win the slate the first game of the series and then Seattle was really good yesterday. I think both those are kind of outliers. I get stacking either side here because I think both of them are on the lower own side of things.

But I also think all the teams you mentioned look better on paper with higher upside. So I'd rather pick on McGreevy Singer, a bunch of guys than the pitchers in this game. So the field will think so too. That's why their ownership will be lower. But I think those other teams have higher upside. Yeah, I agree with you there.

So we're at the, uh, that time of the show here where we're going to give out, give me your, uh, top handful of pitchers maybe two or three pitchers make it three because we already know Seymour and Gavin Williams so give us one more other than that and then give us a couple stacks and then we'll throw out a homer call I'll go obviously william Seymour and then the third pitcher I will go with is jump he hasn't picked on the on the road in a couple starts and he's been much better outside of that that band box and sandy instant and Sacramento excuse me so Those are my three pitchers.

Three stacks. We'll go with the Reds, White Sox, and Braves. Homer? Home run call. Let's go with some righty-on-righty crime. Miguel Vargas going yard. All right. I like that one. All right. So for me, pitchers, Williams, Seymour. I got Gasser and Jump in the same boat. I couldn't decide which of the two that I want. As far as offenses, I'm going to go White Sox, Rays, Reds would be my favorites.

And then home run call, I'm going to the Reds and I'm going to go J.J. Blede goes yard for the Reds here. So But, yeah, we got six games. We had a fun show here today. Appreciate everybody being here. Those that chose violence today, we still love you. If you want to come back, just, you know, just keep it down. No bad juju around here. We don't need that bullshit. Guy's laughing at me about wins from four years ago.

Bro, I've been playing this shit so damn long. Four years ago seems like yesterday, don't it? I mean, damn. Either way. Fun show here today, Matt. Got any last words before we run out of here? No, that's all I got, man. Always a good time. Always, always. But, hey, looking forward to the weekend. I know all the boys will be out there in Vegas for the Big Man in the Sky Memorial that they're doing out there, fundraising out there. I know they were going to play golf.

It was supposed to be like a hundred and ten. So good luck to all of you guys out there in that. But let's kick some ass in some contests and we'll see up at the top of them tournaments. So let's ship it.